Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of compound drought and heatwave events

Compound drought and heatwave extreme weather events: Mortality risk in individuals with chronic respiratory disease

Background

Compound extreme weather events are severe weather conditions that can jointly magnify human health risks beyond any single event alone. Drought and heatwaves are extreme weather conditions associated with adverse health, but their combined impact is poorly understood.

Methods

We designed a case-crossover study to estimate heatwave-associated mortality stratified by drought conditions in 183,725 US Veteran patients (2016-2021) with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). A conditional logistic regression with distributed lag models was applied. Droughts were categorized into binary and categorical metrics, and we further explored the timing of heatwaves as a risk factor.

Results

Our results indicate that drought amplifies heatwaves with hotter temperatures and longer durations during drought conditions, and the percentage of mortality attributable to heatwaves during drought was 7.41% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.91, 12.28) compared with 2.91% (95% CI: 0.00, 4.76) for heatwaves during nondrought conditions. Heatwaves that occurred during drought conditions in the late warm season had a larger association with mortality compared with late-season heatwaves during nondrought conditions, 7.41% (95% CI: 1.96, 13.04) of mortality events and 0.99% (95% CI: -1.01, 3.85) of mortality events attributable to these exposures, respectively.

Conclusion

Compound drought and heatwave events trend toward increased mortality risk among patients with COPD and present a growing human health threat under climate change. Existing heat warnings and vulnerability maps may include drought conditions to better capture heat-related public health risks.

Rising occurrence of compound droughts and heatwaves in the Arabian Peninsula linked to large-scale atmospheric circulations

Compound droughts and heatwaves (CDHWs) have emerged as a critical threat to global populations, with serious implications for water resources, agriculture, and ecosystems. Despite their significance, the occurrence and drivers of CDHW events remain inadequately understood, particularly in arid regions such as the Arabian Peninsula (AP). Using fifth-generation ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5) data, we analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics and variability of CDHW events over the AP from 1980 to 2023. Our results reveal a substantial increase in the frequency and intensity of CDHW events over this period, with a fourfold increase in the affected area since 1998. The northern parts of the AP are particularly vulnerable to CDHW events, due to the strong synchronization of heatwaves and droughts, derived by dominant role of temperature. We identify a robust linkage between CDHWs and large-scale circulation indices, notably the positive phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) have favored pronounced CDHWs over the past two decades. The AMO variability primary influences the mid-tropospheric pressure system leading to substantial temperature variations in the AP. However, the PDO largely impacts upper-level zonal winds, which modulate the strength of the subtropical westerly jet and subsequently changes the AP precipitation. Our findings highlight the urgent need for adaptive strategies and resilient measures to mitigate the adverse effects of CDHWs in a rapidly changing climate.

Softening and Cross-Susceptibility: Exposure to Heat and Desiccation Reduces Future Stress Tolerance in an Insect

The frequency and duration of environmental stressors, such as heat waves and drought, will continue to grow due to ongoing climate change, thereby increasing the likelihood that organisms will experience stressors consecutively. Exposure to one stressor can improve or impair future tolerance to the same stressor (i.e., hardening or softening, respectively), or enhance or reduce future tolerance to a different stressor (i.e., cross-protection or cross-susceptibility, respectively). Understanding whether stress improves or impairs animals' abilities to withstand future stressors is critical for determining the physiological sensitivity of animals to ongoing climate change. Here, we used a factorial design with the variable field cricket (Gryllus lineaticeps) to evaluate whether prior heat or desiccation stress influenced subsequent heat or dessication tolerance. Given the potential energetic costs of hardening and cross-protection, we further examined whether resource (food) acquisition promoted hardening and cross-susceptibility. Prior heat exposure reduced future heat tolerance (i.e., softening), and prior exposure to both heat and desiccation reduced future desiccation tolerance (i.e., softening and cross-susceptibility), potentially due to terminal reproductive investment. Further, resource acquisition (amount of body mass gained) did not influence stress tolerance because individuals that acquired more resources were not more likely to exhibit benefits (rather than costs) to their future stress tolerance. In sum, our results suggest the increasing frequency of climate-related stressors may pose a significant physiological risk to some animals.

Fishing during extreme heatwaves alters ecological interactions and increases indirect fishing mortality in a ubiquitous nearshore system

Heatwaves may have multifaceted ecological impacts; however, field studies assessing the ecological ramifications of nearshore fishing during heatwaves are rare. We leverage a field experiment simulating clam fishing to document such effects on a ubiquitous ecological system at the land-sea interface. During monthly field trials from May-September 2024, we experimentally fished clams at low tide and tracked reburrowing and mortality rates of marked, sub-legal sized clams returned to the sediment. Half of the clams were protected from crab predation and estimates of predator and scavenger activity were recorded. Clams typically reburrowed quickly and mortality was low. During the heatwave, however, clams appeared unhealthy, failed to reburrow, and suffered near-complete mortality. Predator activity in experimental plots was >4× higher during the heatwave compared to other months. Clam mortality during the heatwave was likely a combined result of physiological death and increased predation. When put into the context of air temperature during fishing, there was a clear ecological shift at 30 °C, whereby clam reburrowing plummeted, and predator/scavenger activity and clam mortality dramatically increased. These results provide in situ documentation of human-climate interactions influencing indirect fishing mortality and altering ecological dynamics, ultimately generating pertinent information for ecosystem-based fisheries management.

Molecular dissection of the genetic architecture of phenology underlying Lupinus hispanicus early flowering and adaptation to winter- or spring sowing

Spanish lupin, Lupinus hispanicus Boiss. et Reut. is an untapped grain legume species characterized by moderate frost resistance, tolerance to poor soil and waterlogging, high yield stability, and remarkable seed protein content. It has been recognized as a good candidate for domestication to broaden the palette of crop diversity. One of the key characteristics that need to be precisely addressed during domestication is the vernalization responsiveness of flowering, which is advantageous in autumn sowing due to improved frost tolerance, whilst undesired in spring sowing as it delays flowering. Ahead of L. hispanicus breeding, in the present work, we aimed to recognize existing phenotypic variability of flowering time and vernalization response and to evaluate the genetic architecture of early and late phenology by DArT-seq genotyping and genome-wide association study (GWAS) in world germplasm collection of the species. Controlled environment phenotyping revealed high variability of flowering time and vernalization responsiveness and significant correlations with population structure. DArT-seq genotyping yielded 23 728 highly polymorphic markers distributed extensively across all 26 chromosomes. GWAS identified a number of markers significantly associated with flowering time with or without pre-sowing vernalization, including those overlapping with the two major quantitative trait loci reported previously for white lupin species. Microsynteny-based analysis of the genetic content of L. hispanicus genome regions carrying significantly associated markers highlighted several candidate genes from photoperiodic and vernalization pathways. To summarize, the present study identified germplasm resources for autumn- and spring-sown cultivation of L. hispanicus and provided tools for marker-assisted selection towards required flowering phenology.

Emerging trans-Eurasian heatwave-drought train in a warming climate

Since the late 20th century, an emerging atmospheric teleconnection pattern, the trans-Eurasian heatwave-drought train, has intensified remarkably during summer, correlating with a surge in concurrent heatwave-drought events from Eastern Europe to East Asia. Tree-ring proxies, spanning three centuries, reveal that the recent intensity of this pattern is unprecedented in the historical records. In contrast, the circumglobal teleconnection, which historically dominated the continental-scale Eurasian heatwave occurrences, has shown no discernible trend amid global warming. Consequently, this emerging pattern signifies a radical shift in Eurasian heatwave-drought climatologies. The mechanism involves Rossby wave propagation linked to warming sea surface temperatures in the Northwestern Atlantic and enhanced Sahel precipitation, both amplified recently by overlapping effects of anthropogenic warming and natural variability. Land-atmosphere interactions driven by soil moisture deficits further intensified the pattern regionally. Climate models predict that anthropogenic forcings will continue to strengthen the pattern throughout this century.

The influence of climate change on Primula Sect. Crystallophlomis in southwest China

PURPOSE

Climate change significantly affects the distribution of high-altitude plant species, particularly within the Primula Sect. Crystallophlomis found in Southwest China. This clade is valued for its ornamental and medicinal properties. This study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of P. crystallophlomis to inform conservation and ecological research.

METHODS

An optimized Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt) was utilized to predict the suitable habitat areas of P. crystallophlomis under 9 scenarios, using 161 distribution records and 22 environmental variables. The model parameters were set to RM = 1.5 and FC = LQH, achieving a high prediction accuracy with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.820.

RESULTS

The analysis identified key environmental factors influencing the suitable habitat of P. crystallophlomis, including annual precipitation (bio-12), temperature seasonality (bio-4), mean diurnal range (bio-2), and precipitation seasonality (bio-15). Under current climate conditions, the suitable habitats are primarily located in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Hengduan Mountains, and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, exhibiting significant fragmentation. Notable declines in potential habitat area were observed from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Mid-Holocene (MH), with future projections indicating further reductions, particularly under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 585 (SSP-585) scenario.

CONCLUSION

The suitable habitat of P. crystallophlomis, which tends to grow in consistently cold and moist environments, is expected to shrink, with a projected southward shift in its centroid. Global warming is anticipated to profoundly impact the suitable habitats of P. crystallophlomis, highlighting the urgent need for conservation efforts.

Patterns of Adaptation to Drought in Quercus robur Populations in Central European Temperate Forests

In order to predict the future of European forests, it is crucial to assess the potential of the dominant perennial species to adapt to rapid climate change. The aim of this study was to reconstruct the pattern of distribution of drought tolerance in Quercus robur in the current center of the species' range. The distribution and plasticity of drought-related traits in German populations of Q. robur were assessed and the effects of spring phenology and species demographic history on this distribution were evaluated using a drought stress experiment in a common garden. We show that variation of drought-related functional traits, including intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE), leaf osmotic potential (π), and rate of drought-induced defoliation, is high within Q. robur populations. However, frequency of trees with high estimated constitutive drought tolerance increases with decreasing water availability in the regions of population origin, indicating local adaptation to drought. A strong correlation between the distribution of drought-related traits and spring phenology observed in Q. robur suggests that adaptation to water deficit interacts with adaptation to the strong seasonality of the central European climate. The two processes are not influenced by the history of post-glacial recolonisation of central Europe. The results of this study provide a basis for optimistic prognoses for the future of this species in the center of its current distribution range.

Scoping review of the societal impacts of compound climate events

Climatic extremes have historically been seen as univariate; however, recent international reports have highlighted the potential for an increase in compound climate events (e.g., hot and dry events, recurrent flooding). Despite the projected increase in the frequency of compound climate events and the adoption of compound event terminology, few studies identify climate extremes as compound climate events and little evidence exists on the societal impacts of these compound climate events. This scoping review summarizes key findings and knowledge gaps in the current state of empirical studies that focus on the societal impacts of compound climate events. We identified 28 eligible studies published in four databases reporting on the societal impacts of compound climate events in four sectors: agriculture, public health, the built environment, and land use. Overall, we found the need for more research explicitly linking compound climate events to societal impacts, particularly across multiple compound climate events, rather than single case study events. We also noted several key findings, including changes in agricultural productivity, loss of habitat, increased fire risk, poor mental health outcomes, decreased health care access, and destruction of homes and infrastructure from these events. Additional research is needed both globally and locally to understand the implications of compound climate events across different geographic regions and populations to ensure responsive adaptation policies in a compound climate event framework.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s44274-025-00185-y.

Integration of SPEI and machine learning for assessing the characteristics of drought in the middle ganga plain, an agro-climatic region of India

Drought, as a natural and intricate climatic phenomenon, poses challenges with implications for both natural ecosystems and socioeconomic conditions. Evaluating the characteristics of drought is a significant endeavor aimed at mitigating its impact on society and individuals. This research paper explores the integration of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and machine learning techniques for an assessment of drought characteristics in the Middle Ganga Plain, a crucial agro-climatic region in India. The study focuses on evaluating the frequency, intensity, magnitude, and recurrence interval of drought events. Various drought models, including Random Forest (RF), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and an ensemble model combining ANN and RF, were employed to analyze and predict drought patterns at different temporal scales (3-month, 6-month, and 12-month). The performance of these models was rigorously validated using key metrics such as precision, accuracy, proportion incorrectly classified, over-all area under the curve (AUC), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE). Furthermore, the research extends its application to delineating drought vulnerability zones by establishing demarcations for high and very high drought vulnerability areas for each model and temporal scale. Results indicate that the south-western part of the middle Ganga plain falls under the highly drought-vulnerable zone, which averagely covers 40% of the study region. The core and buffer regions of drought vulnerability have also been identified. The south-western part of the study area is identified as the core region of drought. Ground verification of the drought-vulnerable area has been done by using soil moisture meter. Validation metrics show that the ensemble model of ANN and RF exhibits the highest accuracy across all temporal scales. This research's findings can be applied to improve drought preparedness and water resource management in the Middle Ganga Plain. By identifying high-risk drought zones and utilizing accurate prediction models, policymakers and farmers can implement targeted mitigation strategies. This approach could enhance agricultural resilience, protect livelihoods, and optimize water allocation in this vital agro-climatic region.

Evaluating the spatiotemporal patterns of drought characteristics in a semi-arid region of Limpopo Province, South Africa

Drought is a complex phenomenon resulting from below-average rainfall and is characterized by frequency, duration, and severity, occurring at a regional scale with dire consequences, especially in semiarid environments. This study used the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) to assess drought severity in two district municipalities in Limpopo Province. Rainfall and air temperature data from 12 stations covering 1970-2020 were obtained from the Agricultural Research Council. The calculation of RDI relies on the monthly accumulation ratio of total rainfall to potential evapotranspiration (PET). For this study, PET was estimated using the Hargreaves and Samani temperature-based approach. The RDI results showed a high spatial-temporal variation in drought characteristics over the study area. All stations experienced extreme drought conditions in different years, with the maximum drought severity (-3.40) occurring from 2002-2003 in the western parts of the study area, indicating extreme drought. Furthermore, the results revealed continuous drought conditions over various periods, including severe droughts between 1995 and 1998 and between 2014 and 2016, with the severity varying between mild and moderate drought conditions. The results reveal notable but nonuniform drought patterns as the climate evolves, with potential implications for water availability and livelihoods. The study's findings underscore the significance of adopting multidimensional approaches to drought assessment that encompass meteorological and hydrological factors to inform strategies for adaptive water management and policy formulation in the face of a changing climate.

Surging compound drought-heatwaves underrated in global soils

Compound drought-heatwaves (CDHWs) accelerate the warming and drying of soils, triggering soil compound drought-heatwaves (SCDHWs) that jeopardize the health of soil ecosystems. Nevertheless, the behavior of these events worldwide and their responses to climatic warming are underexplored. Here, we show a global escalation in the frequency, duration, peak intensity, and severity of SCDHWs, as well as an increase in affected land area, from 1980 to 2023. The increasing trends, which are particularly prominent since the early 2000 s, and projected to persist throughout this century, are dominated by summertime SCDHWs and enhanced by El Niño. Intensive soil warming as well as climatologically lower soil temperatures compared to air temperatures lead to localized hotspots of escalating SCDHW severity in northern high latitudes, while prolonged duration causes such hotspots in northern South America. Transformation of natural ecosystems, particularly forests and wetlands, to cropland as well as forest degradation substantially enhance the strength of SCDHWs. Global SCDHWs consistently exhibit higher frequencies, longer durations, greater severities, and faster growth rates than CDHWs in all aspects from 1980 to 2023. They are undergoing a critical transition, with droughts replacing heatwaves as the primary constraint. We emphasize the significant intensification of SCDHWs in northern high latitudes as well as the prolonged duration of SCDHWs in the Southern Hemisphere, posing an underrated threat to achieving carbon neutrality and food security goals.

A global poleward shift of atmospheric rivers

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are key agents in distributing extratropical precipitation and transporting moisture poleward. Climate models forced by historical anthropogenic forcing suggest an increase in AR activity in the extratropics over the past four decades. However, reanalyses indicate a ~6° to 10° poleward shift of ARs during boreal winter in both hemispheres, featuring a rise along 50°N and 50°S and a decrease along 30°N and 30°S. Our analysis demonstrates that low-frequency sea surface temperature variability in the tropical eastern Pacific exhibits a cooling tendency since 2000 that plays a key role in driving this global AR shift, mostly over extratropical oceans, through a tropical-driven eddy-mean flow feedback. This mechanism also operates on interannual timescales, controlled by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and is less pronounced over the Southern Ocean due to weaker eddy activity during austral summer. These highlight the sensitivity of ARs to large-scale circulation changes driven by both internal variability and external forcing in current and upcoming decades.

Elevated CO2, nutrition dilution, and shifts in Earth's insect abundance

Declining insect populations are concerning, given the numerous ecosystem services provided by insects. Here, we examine yet another threat to global insect populations - nutrient dilution, the reduction in noncarbon essential nutrients in plant tissues. The rise of atmospheric CO2, and subsequent 'global greening', is a major driver of nutrient dilution. As plant nutrient concentrations are already low compared to animal tissues, further reductions can be detrimental to herbivore fitness, resulting in increased development times, smaller intraspecific body sizes, reduced reproduction, and reduced population sizes. By altering herbivore populations and traits, nutrient dilution can ramify up trophic levels. Conservation of Earth's biodiversity will require not just protection of habitat, but reductions in anthropogenic alterations to biogeochemical cycles, including the carbon cycle.

Dissociation of transcription factor MYB94 and histone deacetylases HDA907/908 alleviates oxidative damage in poplar

Drought is one of the major threats to forest productivity. Oxidation stress is common in drought-stressed plants, and plants need to maintain normal life activities through complex reactive oxygen scavenging mechanisms. However, the molecular links between epigenetics, oxidation stress, and drought in poplar (Populus) remain poorly understood. Here, we found that Populus plants overexpressing PtrMYB94, which encodes an R2R3-MYB transcription factor that regulates the abscisic acid signaling pathway, displayed increased tolerance to extreme drought stress via upregulation of embryogenic cell phosphoprotein 44 (PtrECPP44) expression. Further investigation revealed that PtrMYB94 could recruit the histone deacetylases PtrHDA907/908 to the promoter of PtrECPP44 and decrease acetylation at lysine residues 9, 14, and 27 of histone H3, leading to relatively low transcriptional expression levels under normal conditions. Drought induced the expression of PtrMYB94 while preventing interaction of PtrMYB94 with PtrHDA907/908, which relaxed the chromatin structure and facilitated the binding of RNA polymerase II to the PtrECPP44 promoter. The upregulation of PtrECPP44 helped poplar alleviate oxidative damage and maintain normal cell activities. This study establishes a PtrMYB94-PtrECPP44 transcriptional regulatory module modified by PtrHDA907/908 in modulating drought-induced oxidative stress recovery. Therefore, our study reveals an oxidative regulatory mechanism in response to drought stress and provides insights into molecular breeding for stress resistance in poplar.

Understanding and achieving species elements in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework was adopted in December 2022 by the parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity. The framework states outcomes for species to be achieved by 2050 in goal A and establishes a range of targets to reduce pressures on biodiversity and halt biodiversity loss by 2030. Target 4 calls for urgent recovery actions for species where the implementation of other targets is insufficient to eliminate extinction risk. We analyze key species elements of goal A and target 4, examine their meaning and clarify implementation needs. We emphasize that target 4 should not be seen simply as the species target, because effective implementation of all targets is essential to achieve the species ambitions in goal A, but, rather, as a target for species that require urgent focused actions and emphasize that an indicator is needed to measure the implementation of urgent management actions. We conclude by considering next steps to identify priorities, undertake further research, make use of resources, ensure cooperation and capacity development.

Drastic increase in the magnitude of very rare summer-mean vapor pressure deficit extremes

Summers with extremely high vapor pressure deficit contribute to crop losses, ecosystem damages, and wildfires. Here, we identify very rare summer vapor pressure deficit extremes globally in reanalysis data and climate model simulations, and quantify the contributions of temperature and atmospheric moisture anomalies to their intensity. The simulations agree with reanalysis data regarding these physical characteristics of historic vapor pressure deficit extremes, and show a +33/+28% increase in their intensity in the northern/southern mid-latitudes over this century. About half of this drastic increase in the magnitude of extreme vapor pressure deficit anomalies is due to climate warming, since this quantity depends exponentially on temperature. Further contributing factors are increasing temperature variability (e.g., in Europe) and the expansion of soil moisture-limited regions. This study shows that to avoid amplified impacts of future vapor pressure deficit extremes, ecosystems and crops must become more resilient not only to an increasing mean vapor pressure deficit, but additionally also to larger seasonal anomalies of this quantity.

An unprecedented fall drought drives Dust Bowl-like losses associated with La Niña events in US wheat production

Unprecedented precipitation deficits in the 2022-2023 growing season across the primary wheat-producing region in the United States caused delays in winter wheat emergence and poor crop growth. Using an integrated approach, we quantitatively unraveled a 37% reduction in wheat production as being attributable to both per-harvested acre yield loss and severe crop abandonment, reminiscent of the Dust Bowl years in the 1930s. We used random forest machine learning and game theory analytics to show that the main driver of yield loss was spring drought, whereas fall drought dominated abandonment rates. Furthermore, results revealed, across the US winter wheat belt, the La Niña phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), increased abandonment rates compared to the El Niño phase. These findings underscore the necessity of simultaneously addressing crop abandonment and yield decline to stabilize wheat production amid extreme climatic conditions and provide a holistic understanding of global-scale ENSO dynamics on wheat production.

Spatial-temporal evolution and intrinsic drivers of compound drought and heatwave events in Mainland China

Given the devastating effects and potential rising trends of compound drought and heatwave (CDH) events under the specter of global warming, this study embarks on a comprehensive examination of their spatial and temporal evolution, as well as the intrinsic drivers. This study identified CDH events based on the non-stationary standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (NSPEI) and the relative threshold method. The study also quantified the spatial and temporal patterns of frequency, intensity, and duration of CDH events across different climatic sub-regions, quantifying the contribution of drought-heatwave interdependence to these events and assessing the impact of single extreme climate events on their proliferation. The study yielded several key findings: 1) The frequency, intensity, and duration of CDH events exhibited high spatial heterogeneity and a significant increasing trend over the study period. 2) A notable positive interdependence was observed between the occurrences of droughts and heatwaves, significantly contributing to the rise in CDH events. 3) Droughts exacerbated the intensity and duration of CDH events compared to heatwaves under non-drought conditions (NDCH). 4) The spatial distribution characteristics and the change indices of heatwaves and CDH events were strikingly similar, indicating a consistent evolution. Notably, the increase in heatwaves had a more pronounced influence on the escalation of CDH events compared to droughts. 5) The West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and the South Asian High (SAH) have had significant impacts on CDH events in mainland China. This research provides vital insights into the dynamics of CDH events, emphasizing their growing frequency and severity in the context of climate change. It offers a crucial perspective for policymakers and disaster management authorities in developing targeted strategies for climate adaptation and mitigation.

Pest management facing warming and chemical stresses: Multi-stress effects on the biological agent Trichogramma oleae

Global change is affecting plant-insect interactions in agroecosystems and can have dramatic consequences on yields when causing non-targeted pest outbreaks and threatening the use of pest natural enemies for biocontrol. The vineyard agroecosystem is an interesting system to study multi-stress conditions: on the one hand, agricultural intensification comes with high inputs of copper-based fungicides and, on the other hand, temperatures are rising due to climate change. We investigated interactive and bottom-up effects of both temperature increase and copper-based fungicides exposure on the important Lepidopteran vineyard pest Lobesia botrana and its natural enemy, the oophagous parasitoid Trichogramma oleae. We exposed L. botrana larvae to three increasing copper sulfate concentrations under two fluctuating thermal regimes, one current and one future. Eggs produced by L. botrana were then exposed to T. oleae. Our results showed that the survival of L. botrana, was only reduced by the highest copper sulfate concentration and improved under the warmer regime. The development time of L. botrana was strongly reduced by the warmer regime but increased with increasing copper sulfate concentrations, whereas pupal mass was reduced by both thermal regime and copper sulfate. T. oleae F1 emergence rate was reduced and their development time increased by combined effects of the warmer regime and increasing copper sulfate concentrations. Size, longevity and fecundity of T. oleae F1 decreased with high copper sulfate concentrations. These effects on the moth pest and its natural enemy are probably the result of trade-offs between the survival and the development of L. botrana facing multi-stress conditions and implicate potential consequences for future biological pest control. Our study supplies valuable data on how the interaction between pests and biological control agents is affected by multi-stress conditions.

Spectral ecophysiology: hyperspectral pressure-volume curves to estimate leaf turgor loss

Turgor loss point (TLP) is an important proxy for plant drought tolerance, species habitat suitability, and drought-induced plant mortality risk. Thus, TLP serves as a critical tool for evaluating climate change impacts on plants, making it imperative to develop high-throughput and in situ methods to measure TLP. We developed hyperspectral pressure-volume curves (PV curves) to estimate TLP using leaf spectral reflectance. We used partial least square regression models to estimate water potential (Ψ) and relative water content (RWC) for two species, Frangula caroliniana and Magnolia grandiflora. RWC and Ψ's model for each species had R2 ≥ 0.7 and %RMSE = 7-10. We constructed PV curves with model estimates and compared the accuracy of directly measured and spectra-predicted TLP. Our findings indicate that leaf spectral measurements are an alternative method for estimating TLP. F. caroliniana TLP's values were -1.62 ± 0.15 (means ± SD) and -1.62 ± 0.34 MPa for observed and reflectance predicted, respectively (P > 0.05), while M. grandiflora were -1.78 ± 0.34 and -1.66 ± 0.41 MPa (P > 0.05). The estimation of TLP through leaf reflectance-based PV curves opens a broad range of possibilities for future research aimed at understanding and monitoring plant water relations on a large scale with spectral ecophysiology.

Ploidy's Role in Daylily Plant Resilience to Drought Stress Challenges

This study aimed to understand the differences in the performance of diploid and tetraploid daylily cultivars under water deficit conditions, which are essential indicators of drought tolerance. This research revealed that tetraploid daylilies performed better than diploid varieties in arid conditions due to their enhanced adaptability and resilience to water deficit conditions. The analysis of the results highlighted the need to clarify the specific physiological and molecular mechanisms underlying the enhanced drought tolerance observed in tetraploid plants compared to diploids. This research offers valuable knowledge for improving crop resilience and sustainable floricultural practices in changing environmental conditions. The morphological and physiological parameters were analyzed in 19 diploid and 21 tetraploid daylily cultivars under controlled water deficit conditions, and three drought resistance groups were formed based on the clustering of these parameters. In a high drought resistance cluster, 93.3% tetraploid cultivars were exhibited. This study demonstrates the significance of ploidy in shaping plant responses to drought stress. It emphasizes the importance of studying plant responses to water deficit in landscape horticulture to develop drought-tolerant plants and ensure aspects of climate change.

Assessment of the combined vulnerability to droughts and heatwaves in Shandong Province in summer from 2000 to 2018

Droughts and heat waves exhibit synergistic effects and are among the world's most costly disasters. To explore the spatiotemporal differences and formation mechanisms of the combined vulnerability to droughts and heat waves in Shandong Province over the past 20 years, a vulnerability scoping diagram (VSD) model with three dimensions-exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability-was constructed to assess and compare the combined vulnerability to high-temperature and drought events, considering economic and social conditions. The results showed that (1) over the past 20 years, heat waves and droughts have increased in Shandong Province. The number of high-temperature events significantly increased in the west and decreased along the eastern coast, and drought change was characterized by an increase in the south and a decrease in the north. (2) The combined exposure to summer droughts and heat waves in Shandong Province showed a significant increasing trend (P < 0.05) at a rate of approximately 0.072/10a; the combined sensitivity significantly decreased (P < 0.05) at a rate of approximately 0.137/10a, and the combined adaptability continued to increase at a rate of approximately 0.481/10a. (3) The combined vulnerability to summer droughts and heat waves in the western inland area of Shandong Province was high and gradually decreased toward the southeastern coast. The overall decrease trend was nonsignificant with a decrease of approximately 0.126/10a, and the decline rate decreased from northwest to southeast, in which Laiwu, Yantai, Jinan, and Zibo cities exhibited a significant decreasing trend (P < 0.05). Although the compound vulnerability of Shandong Province has decreased insignificantly, the frequency of combined drought and heat wave events has increased, and the combined vulnerability will increase in the future.

Characteristics of flash droughts and their association with compound meteorological extremes in China: Observations and model simulations

Flash droughts have gained considerable public attention due to the imminent threats they pose to food security, ecological safety, and human health. Currently, there has been little research exploring the projected changes in flash droughts and their association with compound meteorological extremes (CMEs). In this study, we applied the pentad-mean water deficit index to investigate the characteristics of flash droughts and their association with CMEs based on observational data and downscaled model simulations. Our analysis reveals an increasing trend in flash drought frequency in China based on historical observations and model simulations. Specifically, the proportion of flash drought frequency with a one-pentad onset time showed a consistent upward trend, with the southern parts of China experiencing a high average proportion during the historical period. Furthermore, the onset dates of the first (last) flash droughts during year are projected to shift earlier (later) in a warmer world. Flash droughts become significantly more frequent in the future, with a growth rate approximately 1.3 times higher in the high emission scenario than in the medium emission scenario. The frequency of flash droughts with a one-pentad onset time also exhibits a significant upward trend, indicating that flash droughts will occur more rapidly in the future. CMEs in southern regions of China were found to be more likely to trigger flash droughts in the historical period. The probability of CMEs triggering flash droughts is expected to increase with the magnitude of warming, particularly in the far-future under the high emissions scenario.

The Impact of Water Potential and Temperature on Native Species' Capability for Seed Germination in the Loess Plateau Region, China

Global warming is increasing the frequency and intensity of heat waves and droughts. One important phase in the life cycle of plants is seed germination. To date, the association of the temperature and water potential thresholds of germination with seed traits has not been explored in much detail. Therefore, we set up different temperature gradients (5-35 °C), water potential gradients (-1.2-0 MPa), and temperature × water potential combinations for nine native plants in the Loess Plateau region to clarify the temperature and water combinations suitable for their germination. Meanwhile, we elucidated the temperature and water potential thresholds of the plants and their correlations with the mean seed mass and flatness index by using the thermal time and hydrotime models. According to our findings, the germination rate was positively correlated with the germination percentage and water potential, with the former rising and the latter decreasing as the temperature increased. Using the thermal time and hydrotime models, the seed germination thresholds could be predicted accurately, and the germination thresholds of the studied species varied with an increase in germination percentage. Moreover, temperature altered the impact of water potential on the germination rate. Overall, the base water potential for germination, but not the temperature threshold, was negatively correlated with mean seed mass and was lower for rounder seeds than for longer seeds. This study contributes to improving our understanding of the seed germination characteristics of typical plants and has important implications for the management and vegetation restoration of degraded grasslands.

Accuracy of TIP4P/2005 and SPC/Fw Water Models

Water is used as the main solvent in model systems containing bioorganic molecules. Choosing the right water model is an important step in the study of the biophysical and biochemical processes that occur in cells. In the present work, we perform molecular dynamics simulations using two distinct force fields for water: the rigid model TIP4P/2005, where only intermolecular interactions are considered, and the flexible model SPC/Fw, where intramolecular interactions are also taken into account. The simulations aim to determine the effect of the inclusion of intramolecular interactions on the accuracy of calculated properties of bulk water (density and thermal expansion coefficient, self-diffusion coefficients, shear viscosity, radial distribution functions, and dielectric constant), as compared to experimental results, over a temperature range between 250 and 370 K. We find that the results of the rigid model present the smallest deviations relative to experiments for most of the calculated quantities, except for the shear viscosity of supercooled water and the water dielectric constant, where the flexible model presents better agreement with experiments.

Dominant flood types in mountains catchments: Identification and change analysis for the landscape planning

The classification of floods may be a supporting tool for decision-makers in regard to water management, including flood protection. The main objective of this work is the classification of flood generation mechanisms in 28 catchments of the upper Vistula basin. A significant innovation in this study lies in the utilization of decision trees for flood classification. The methodology has so far been applied in the Alpine region. The analysis reveals that peak daily precipitation in the catchments mainly occurs in summer, particularly from June to August. Maximal daily snowmelt typically happens at the end of winter (March to April) and occasionally in November. Winter peaks are observed in March to April and, in some areas, in November to December, while summer peaks occur in May and, in specific catchments, in October. Higher peak flows for annual floods are noted in March to April and June to August. Most annual floods in the Upper Vistula basin are classified as Rain-on-Snow Floods (RoSFs) or Lowland River Floods (LRFs). LRFs contribute from 19% to almost 72%, while RoSFs range from 18% to 75%. In Season 1 (summer), most seasonal floods are identified as LRFs (51%-100%), with very few as RoSFs (0%-46.9%). In Season 2 (winter), the opposite pattern is observed, with most RoSFs (48.4%-97.9%) and fewer LRFs (0%-20.6%). While there are changes in flood patterns, they are not statistically significant. Conducted studies and obtained results can be useful for the preparation of flood prevention documentation and for flood management in general.

Increasing prevalence of hot drought across western North America since the 16th century

Across western North America (WNA), 20th-21st century anthropogenic warming has increased the prevalence and severity of concurrent drought and heat events, also termed hot droughts. However, the lack of independent spatial reconstructions of both soil moisture and temperature limits the potential to identify these events in the past and to place them in a long-term context. We develop the Western North American Temperature Atlas (WNATA), a data-independent 0.5° gridded reconstruction of summer maximum temperatures back to the 16th century. Our evaluation of the WNATA with existing hydroclimate reconstructions reveals an increasing association between maximum temperature and drought severity in recent decades, relative to the past five centuries. The synthesis of these paleo-reconstructions indicates that the amplification of the modern WNA megadrought by increased temperatures and the frequency and spatial extent of compound hot and dry conditions in the 21st century are likely unprecedented since at least the 16th century.

Impacts of compounding drought and heatwave events on child mental health: insights from a spatial clustering analysis

BACKGROUND

Concurrent heatwave and drought events may have larger health impacts than each event separately; however, no US-based studies have examined differential mental health impacts of compound drought and heatwave events in pediatric populations.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the spatial patterns of mood disorders and suicide-related emergency department (ED) visits in children during heatwave, drought, and compound heatwave and drought events. We tested whether the occurrence of compound heatwave and drought events have a synergistic (multiplicative) effect on the risk of mental health related outcomes in children as compared to the additive effect of each individual climate hazard. Lastly, we identified household and community-level determinants of geographic variability of high psychiatric burden.

METHODS

Daily counts of psychiatric ED visits in North Carolina from 2016 to 2019 (May to Sept) for pediatric populations were aggregated at the county scale. Bernoulli cluster analyses identified high-risk spatial clusters of psychiatric morbidity during heatwave, drought, or compound heatwave and drought periods. Multivariate adaptive regression models examined the individual importance of household and community-level determinants in predicting high-risk clustering of mood disorders or suicidality across the three climate threats.

RESULTS

Results showed significant spatial clustering of suicide and mood disorder risks in children during heatwave, drought, and compound event periods. Periods of drought were associated with the highest likelihood of spatial clustering for suicide and mood disorders, where the risk of an ED visit was 4.48 and 6.32 times higher, respectively, compared to non-drought periods. Compounding events were associated with a threefold increase in both suicide and mood disorder-related ED visits. Community and household vulnerability factors that most contributed to spatial clustering varied across climate hazards, but consistent determinants included residential segregation, green space availability, low English proficiency, overcrowding, no broadband access, no vehicle access, housing vacancy, and availability of housing units.

CONCLUSION

Findings advance understanding on the locations of vulnerable pediatric populations who are disproportionately exposed to compounding climate stressors and identify community resilience factors to target in public health adaptation strategies.

A microbial evolutionary approach for a sustainable future

With the continued population increase, more sustainable use of water, land, air and chemicals is imperative. Microorganisms will need to be called upon to aid in many sustainability efforts. Prokaryotes are the fastest-evolving cellular life, and most manipulatable via synthetic biology. Moreover, their natural diversity in processing organic and inorganic chemicals, and their survivability in extreme niches, make them prime agents to enlist for solving many of society's pressing problems.