Studies on the dynamics of transmission of onchocerciasis in a Sudan-savanna area of North Cameroon IV. The different exposure to Simulium bites and transmission of boys and girls and men and women, and the resulting manifestations of onchocerciasis

Short- and Long-Range Dispersal by Members of the Simulium damnosum Complex (Diptera: Simuliidae), Vectors of Onchocerciasis: A Review

Blackfly members of the Simulium damnosum complex are major vectors of the parasite that causes onchocerciasis in Africa and Yemen, with other vector species involved in a few localized areas of Africa and in the Neotropics. Although the life cycle of these blackflies is linked to fast-flowing rivers, they can travel long distances (up to at least 500 km), calling into question how transmission zones are defined. Knowledge of the short- and long-range dispersal of these vectors could inform where control interventions and monitoring are necessary if targets for onchocerciasis elimination are to be met. Yet, research on blackfly dispersal has been limited and fragmented over the last 70 years. Here, we review the literature on the dispersal of onchocerciasis vectors, and we show the need for further research to establish how far larvae can travel downstream; the extent to which adults invade transmission zones; and whether adults migrate in a series of successive short movements or in single long-distance shifts, or use both methods.

Onchocerciasis transmission status in some endemic communities of Cross River State, Nigeria after two decades of mass drug administration with ivermectin

Onchocerciasis is a parasitic disease transmitted by black flies. Human onchocerciasis is a public health and socioeconomic problem in Nigeria. Its prevalence and morbidity have reduced over the years because of control efforts especially, Mass Drug Administration with ivermectin. The current goal is to eliminate the disease transmission by 2030. Understanding the changes in transmission patterns in Cross River State is critical to elimination of onchocerciasis in Nigeria. This study was designed to determine the transmission dynamics of onchocerciasis in Cross River State after over two decades of mass ivermectin distribution in endemic communities. Agbokim, Aningeje, Ekong Anaku and Orimekpang are four endemic communities from three Local Government Areas of the State selected for this study. Transmission indices such as infectivity rates, biting rates and transmission potentials, parity rates and diurnal biting activities were determined. A total of 15,520 adult female flies were caught on human baits, Agbokim (2831), Aningeje (6209), Ekong Anaku (4364) and Orimekpang (2116). A total of 9488 and 5695 flies were collected during the rainy and dry seasons respectively in the four communities studied. The differences in relative abundance among the communities were statistically significant (P < 0.001). Monthly and seasonal fly numbers varied significantly (P < 0.008). There were differences in diurnal biting activities of flies in this study at different hours of the day and different months. The peak monthly biting rates were 5993 (Agbokim, October), 13,134 (Aningeje, October), 8680 (Ekong Anaku, October) and 6120 (Orimekpang, September) bites/person/month while the lowest monthly biting rates were 400 (Agbokim, November), 2862 (Aningeje, August), 1405 (Ekong Anaku, January) and 0.0 (Orimekpang, November and December) bites/person/month. Differences in biting rates among the study communities were significant (P < 0.001). The peak monthly transmission potential in Aningeje was 160 infective bites/person/month in the month of February while the lowest (except for months with no transmission) was 42 infective bites/person/month in the month of April. All other study sites had no ongoing transmission in this study. Transmission studies showed that there is progress toward transmission interruption especially in 3 out of the four studied areas. Molecular O-150 poolscreen studies is required to confirm the true transmission situation in the areas.

Demographic patterns of human antibody levels to Simulium damnosum s.l. saliva in onchocerciasis-endemic areas: An indicator of exposure to vector bites

BACKGROUND

In onchocerciasis endemic areas in Africa, heterogenous biting rates by blackfly vectors on humans are assumed to partially explain age- and sex-dependent infection patterns with Onchocerca volvulus. To underpin these assumptions and further improve predictions made by onchocerciasis transmission models, demographic patterns in antibody responses to salivary antigens of Simulium damnosum s.l. are evaluated as a measure of blackfly exposure.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Recently developed IgG and IgM anti-saliva immunoassays for S. damnosum s.l. were applied to blood samples collected from residents in four onchocerciasis endemic villages in Ghana. Demographic patterns in antibody levels according to village, sex and age were explored by fitting generalized linear models. Antibody levels varied between villages but showed consistent patterns with age and sex. Both IgG and IgM responses declined with increasing age. IgG responses were generally lower in males than in females and exhibited a steeper decline in adult males than in adult females. No sex-specific difference was observed in IgM responses.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The decline in age-specific antibody patterns suggested development of immunotolerance or desensitization to blackfly saliva antigen in response to persistent exposure. The variation between sexes, and between adults and youngsters may reflect differences in behaviour influencing cumulative exposure. These measures of antibody acquisition and decay could be incorporated into onchocerciasis transmission models towards informing onchocerciasis control, elimination, and surveillance.

What does the COVID-19 pandemic mean for the next decade of onchocerciasis control and elimination?

BACKGROUND

Mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin for onchocerciasis has been disrupted by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modelling can help predict how missed/delayed MDA will affect short-term epidemiological trends and elimination prospects by 2030.

METHODS

Two onchocerciasis transmission models (EPIONCHO-IBM and ONCHOSIM) are used to simulate microfilarial prevalence trends, elimination probabilities and age profiles of Onchocerca volvulus microfilarial prevalence and intensity for different treatment histories and transmission settings, assuming no interruption, a 1-y (2020) interruption or a 2-y (2020-2021) interruption. Biannual MDA or increased coverage upon MDA resumption are investigated as remedial strategies.

RESULTS

Programmes with shorter MDA histories and settings with high pre-intervention endemicity will be the most affected. Biannual MDA is more effective than increasing coverage for mitigating COVID-19's impact on MDA. Programmes that had already switched to biannual MDA should be minimally affected. In high-transmission settings with short treatment history, a 2-y interruption could lead to increased microfilarial load in children (EPIONCHO-IBM) and adults (ONCHOSIM).

CONCLUSIONS

Programmes with shorter (annual MDA) treatment histories should be prioritised for remedial biannual MDA. Increases in microfilarial load could have short- and long-term morbidity and mortality repercussions. These results can guide decision-making to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on onchocerciasis elimination.

Taking the strain out of onchocerciasis? A reanalysis of blindness and transmission data does not support the existence of a savannah blinding strain of onchocerciasis in West Africa

Onchocerciasis (also known as 'river blindness'), is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) caused by the (Simulium-transmitted) filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus. The occurrence of 'blinding' (savannah) and non-blinding (forest) parasite strains and the existence of corresponding, locally adapted Onchocerca-Simulium complexes were postulated to explain greater blindness prevalence in savannah than in forest foci. As a result, the World Health Organization (WHO) Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) focused anti-vectorial and anti-parasitic interventions in savannah endemic areas. In this paper, village-level data on blindness prevalence, microfilarial prevalence, and transmission intensity (measured by the annual transmission potential, the number of infective, L3, larvae per person per year) were extracted from 16 West-Central Africa-based publications, and analysed according to habitat (forest, forest-savannah mosaic, savannah) to test the dichotomous strain hypothesis in relation to blindness. When adjusting for sample size, there were no statistically significant differences in blindness prevalence between the habitats (one-way ANOVA, P=0.68, mean prevalence for forest=1.76±0.37 (SE); mosaic=1.49±0.38; savannah=1.89±0.26). The well-known relationship between blindness prevalence and annual transmission potential for savannah habitats was confirmed and shown to hold for (but not to be statistically different from) forest foci (excluding data from southern Côte d'Ivoire, in which blindness prevalence was significantly lower than in other West African forest communities, but which had been the focus of studies leading to the strain-blindness hypothesis that was accepted by OCP planners). We conclude that the evidence for a savannah blinding onchocerciasis strain in simple contrast with a non-blinding forest strain is equivocal. A re-appraisal of the strain hypothesis to explain patterns of ocular disease is needed to improve understanding of onchocerciasis epidemiology and disease burden estimates in the light of the WHO 2030 goals for onchocerciasis.

Structural Uncertainty in Onchocerciasis Transmission Models Influences the Estimation of Elimination Thresholds and Selection of Age Groups for Seromonitoring

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization recommends monitoring Onchocerca volvulus Ov16 serology in children aged <10 years for stopping mass ivermectin administration. Transmission models can help to identify the most informative age groups for serological monitoring and investigate the discriminatory power of serology-based elimination thresholds. Model predictions depend on assumed age-exposure patterns and transmission efficiency at low infection levels.

METHODS

The individual-based transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM, was used to assess (1) the most informative age groups for serological monitoring using receiver operating characteristic curves for different elimination thresholds under various age-dependent exposure assumptions, including those of ONCHOSIM (another widely used model), and (2) the influence of within-human density-dependent parasite establishment (included in EPIONCHO-IBM but not ONCHOSIM) on positive predictive values for different serological thresholds.

RESULTS

When assuming EPIONCHO-IBM exposure patterns, children aged <10 years are the most informative for seromonitoring; when assuming ONCHOSIM exposure patterns, 5-14 year olds are the most informative (as published elsewhere). Omitting density-dependent parasite establishment results in more lenient seroprevalence thresholds, even for higher baseline infection prevalence and shorter treatment durations.

CONCLUSIONS

Selecting appropriate seromonitoring age groups depends critically on age-dependent exposure patterns. The role of density dependence on elimination thresholds largely explains differing EPIONCHO-IBM and ONCHOSIM elimination predictions.

Onchocerca volvulus and epilepsy: A comprehensive review using the Bradford Hill criteria for causation

BACKGROUND

The possibility that onchocerciasis may cause epilepsy has been suggested for a long time, but thus far, an etiological link has not been universally accepted. The objective of this review is to critically appraise the relationship between Onchocerca volvulus and epilepsy and subsequently apply the Bradford Hill criteria to further evaluate the likelihood of a causal association.

METHODS

PubMed and gray literature published until September 15, 2020, were searched and findings from original research were synthesized. Adherence to the 9 Bradford Hill criteria in the context of onchocerciasis and epilepsy was determined to assess whether the criteria are met to strengthen the evidence base for a causal link between infection with O. volvulus and epilepsy, including the nodding syndrome.

RESULTS

Onchocerciasis as a risk factor for epilepsy meets the following Bradford Hill criteria for causality: strength of the association, consistency, temporality, and biological gradient. There is weaker evidence supporting causality based on the specificity, plausibility, coherence, and analogy criteria. There is little experimental evidence. Considering the Bradford Hill criteria, available data suggest that under certain conditions (high microfilarial load, timing of infection, and perhaps genetic predisposition), onchocerciasis is likely to cause epilepsy including nodding and Nakalanga syndromes.

CONCLUSION

Applying the Bradford Hill criteria suggests consistent epidemiological evidence that O. volvulus infection is a trigger of epilepsy. However, the pathophysiological mechanisms responsible for seizure induction still need to be elucidated.

Modelling exposure heterogeneity and density dependence in onchocerciasis using a novel individual-based transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM: Implications for elimination and data needs

BACKGROUND

Density dependence in helminth establishment and heterogeneity in exposure to infection are known to drive resilience to interventions based on mass drug administration (MDA). However, the interaction between these processes is poorly understood. We developed a novel individual-based model for onchocerciasis transmission, EPIONCHO-IBM, which accounts for both processes. We fit the model to pre-intervention epidemiological data and explore parasite dynamics during MDA with ivermectin.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Density dependence and heterogeneity in exposure to blackfly (vector) bites were estimated by fitting the model to matched pre-intervention microfilarial prevalence, microfilarial intensity and vector biting rate data from savannah areas of Cameroon and Côte d'Ivoire/Burkina Faso using Latin hypercube sampling. Transmission dynamics during 25 years of annual and biannual ivermectin MDA were investigated. Density dependence in parasite establishment within humans was estimated for different levels of (fixed) exposure heterogeneity to understand how parametric uncertainty may influence treatment dynamics. Stronger overdispersion in exposure to blackfly bites results in the estimation of stronger density-dependent parasite establishment within humans, consequently increasing resilience to MDA. For all levels of exposure heterogeneity tested, the model predicts a departure from the functional forms for density dependence assumed in the deterministic version of the model.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This is the first, stochastic model of onchocerciasis, that accounts for and estimates density-dependent parasite establishment in humans alongside exposure heterogeneity. Capturing the interaction between these processes is fundamental to our understanding of resilience to MDA interventions. Given that uncertainty in these processes results in very different treatment dynamics, collecting data on exposure heterogeneity would be essential for improving model predictions during MDA. We discuss possible ways in which such data may be collected as well as the importance of better understanding the effects of immunological responses on establishing parasites prior to and during ivermectin treatment.

Implementation of test-and-treat with doxycycline and temephos ground larviciding as alternative strategies for accelerating onchocerciasis elimination in an area of loiasis co-endemicity: the COUNTDOWN consortium multi-disciplinary study protocol

Background

Onchocerciasis is a priority neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination by 2025. The standard strategy to combat onchocerciasis is annual Community-Directed Treatment with ivermectin (CDTi). Yet, high prevalence rates and transmission persist following > 12 rounds in South-West Cameroon. Challenges include programme coverage, adherence to, and acceptability of ivermectin in an area of Loa loa co-endemicity. Loiasis patients harbouring heavy infections are at risk of potentially fatal serious adverse events following CDTi. Alternative strategies are therefore needed to achieve onchocerciasis elimination where CDTi effectiveness is suboptimal.

Methods/design

We designed an implementation study to evaluate integrating World Health Organisation-endorsed alternative strategies for the elimination of onchocerciasis, namely test-and-treat with the macrofilaricide, doxycycline (TTd), and ground larviciding for suppression of blackfly vectors with the organophosphate temephos. A community-based controlled before-after intervention study will be conducted among > 2000 participants in 20 intervention (Meme River Basin) and 10 control (Indian River Basin) communities. The primary outcome measure is O. volvulus prevalence at follow-up 18-months post-treatment. The study involves four inter-disciplinary components: parasitology, entomology, applied social sciences and health economics. Onchocerciasis skin infection will be diagnosed by skin biopsy and Loa loa infection will be diagnosed by parasitological examination of finger-prick blood samples. A simultaneous clinical skin disease assessment will be made. Eligible skin-snip-positive individuals will be offered directly-observed treatment for 5 weeks with 100 mg/day doxycycline. Transmission assessments of onchocerciasis in the communities will be collected post-human landing catch of the local biting blackfly vector prior to ground larviciding with temephos every week (0.3 l/m³) until biting rate falls below 5/person/day. Qualitative research, including in-depth interviews and focus-group discussions will be used to assess acceptability and feasibility of the implemented alternative strategies among intervention recipients and providers. Health economics will assess the cost-effectiveness of the implemented interventions.

Conclusions

Using a multidisciplinary approach, we aim to assess the effectiveness of TTd, alone or in combination with ground larviciding, following a single intervention round and scrutinise the acceptability and feasibility of implementing at scale in similar hotspots of onchocerciasis infection, to accelerate onchocerciasis elimination.

Differences in infection patterns of vector-borne blood-stage parasites of sympatric Malagasy primate species (Microcebus murinus, M. ravelobensis)

The dynamic relationship of vector-borne parasites, arthropod vectors and their hosts is prone to change under the influence of climate change, global integration, shifting demographics and deforestation. It is therefore essential to better understand parasitism in wildlife populations, including parasites transmitted by blood-feeding vectors, and explore host range and heterogeneity of parasitic infections. We investigated Giemsa stained blood smears of two sympatric Malagasy primate species (Microcebus murinus: 184 samples from 69 individuals and M. ravelobensis: 264 samples from 91 individuals) for blood-stage parasites and tested for a potential influence of host species, sex, body mass and sampling month on blood-stage parasite prevalence and infection intensity. No protozoan parasites were detected in either host species. A host-specific difference was observed in filarial nematode infections, with higher risk of infection in M. murinus (prevalence 30.43%), than in M. ravelobensis (prevalence 6.59%), which may be explained by differences in host behavior and/or immune competence, linked to the period of host-parasite coevolution. Neither sex nor sampling month influenced infection prevalence or intensity significantly. We did not observe a negative effect of microfilarial infections on host fitness when taking body mass as a proxy. Our results support the hypothesis of a long-term evolutionary adaptation of hosts and parasites, leading to persistent infection with low morbidity. Morphological and molecular analyses indicate the finding of a new species, “Lemurfilaria lemuris”. Genetic analysis furthermore showed >99% sequence identity with microfilariae described from a sympatric, larger-bodied lemur species of a different genus, suggesting low host-specificity of the detected filariae and pathogen transmission across genus boundaries. Findings contribute to a more comprehensive picture of vector-borne diseases of Malagasy lemurs.

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Small Malagasy primate species are hosts of the newly described Lemurfilaria lemuris.

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Risk of microfilarial infection and infection intensity differed between host species.

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This could be linked to differences in host socioecology and/or phylogeography.

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No influence of microfilarial infection on host body mass was observed.

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>99% sequence identity of filariae from lemur hosts of different genera.

Factors affecting onchocerciasis transmission: lessons for infection control

INTRODUCTION

Onchocerca volvulus infects in excess of 15 million people. The vectors are Simulium blackflies, varieties of which differ in their ecologies, behavior and vectorial abilities. Control of the vectors and mass administrations of ivermectin have succeeded in reducing prevalences with elimination achieved in some foci, particularly in Central and southern America. In Africa, progress towards elimination has been less successful. Areas covered: Even with community directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI), control has been difficult in African areas with initial prevalences in excess of 55%, especially if only annual treatments are dispensed. This is partly attributable to insufficient coverage, but the appearance of incipiently resistant non-responding parasites and lack of attention to vector biology in modeling and planning outcomes of intervention programmes have also played their parts, with recrudescence now appearing in some treated areas. Expert commentary: The biology of onchocerciasis is complex involving different vectors with differing abilities to transmit parasites, diverse pathologies related to geographical and parasite variations and endosymbionts in both parasite and vector. Modeling to predict epidemiological and control outcomes is addressing this complexity but more attention needs to be given to the vectors' roles to further understanding of where and when control measures will succeed.

Human Onchocerciasis: Modelling the Potential Long-term Consequences of a Vaccination Programme

Background

Currently, the predominant onchocerciasis control strategy in Africa is annual mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin. However, there is a consensus among the global health community, supported by mathematical modelling, that onchocerciasis in Africa will not be eliminated within proposed time frameworks in all endemic foci with only annual MDA, and novel and alternative strategies are urgently needed. Furthermore, use of MDA with ivermectin is already compromised in large areas of central Africa co-endemic with Loa loa, and there are areas where suboptimal or atypical responses to ivermectin have been documented. An onchocerciasis vaccine would be highly advantageous in these areas.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used a previously developed onchocerciasis transmission model (EPIONCHO) to investigate the impact of vaccination in areas where loiasis and onchocerciasis are co-endemic and ivermectin is contraindicated. We also explore the potential influence of a vaccination programme on infection resurgence in areas where local elimination has been successfully achieved. Based on the age range included in the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI), the vaccine was assumed to target 1 to 5 year olds. Our modelling results indicate that the deployment of an onchocerciasis vaccine would have a beneficial impact in onchocerciasis–loiasis co-endemic areas, markedly reducing microfilarial load in the young (under 20 yr) age groups.

Conclusions/Significance

An onchocerciasis prophylactic vaccine would reduce the onchocerciasis disease burden in populations where ivermectin cannot be administered safely. Moreover, a vaccine could substantially decrease the chance of re-emergence of Onchocerca volvulus infection in areas where it is deemed that MDA with ivermectin can be stopped. Therefore, a vaccine would protect the substantial investments made by present and past onchocerciasis control programmes, decreasing the chance of disease recrudescence and offering an important additional tool to mitigate the potentially devastating impact of emerging ivermectin resistance.

Novel and alternative strategies are required to meet the demanding control and elimination (of infection) goals for human onchocerciasis (river blindness) in Africa. Due to the overlapping distribution of onchocerciasis and loiasis (African eye worm) in forested areas of central Africa, millions of people living in such areas are not well served by current interventions because they cannot safely receive the antiparasitic drug ivermectin that is distributed en masse to treat onchocerciasis elsewhere in Africa. The Onchocerciasis Vaccine for Africa—TOVA—Initiative has been established to develop and trial an onchocerciasis vaccine. We model the potential impact of a hypothetical childhood vaccination programme rolled out in areas where co-endemicity of onchocerciasis and African eye worm makes mass distribution of ivermectin difficult and potentially unsafe for treating, controlling and eliminating river blindness. We find that, 15 years into the programme, a vaccine would substantially reduce infection levels in children and young adults, protecting them from the morbidity and mortality associated with onchocerciasis. Most benefit would be reaped from a long-lived vaccine, even if only partially protective. We also discuss how a vaccine could substantially reduce the risk of re-emergence of onchocerciasis in areas freed from infection after years of successful intervention.

Modelling the impact of ivermectin on River Blindness and its burden of morbidity and mortality in African Savannah: EpiOncho projections

Background

The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has refocused its goals on the elimination of infection where possible, seemingly achievable by 15–17 years of annual mass distribution of ivermectin in some African foci. Previously, APOC had focused on the elimination of onchocerciasis as a public health problem. Timeframes have been set by the World Health Organization, the London Declaration on Neglected Tropical Diseases and the World Bank to achieve these goals by 2020–2025.

Methods

A novel mathematical model of the dynamics of onchocercal disease is presented which links documented associations between Onchocerca volvulus infection and the prevalence and incidence of morbidity and mortality to model outputs from our host age- and sex-structured onchocerciasis transmission framework (EpiOncho). The model is calibrated for African savannah settings, and used to assess the impact of long-term annual mass administration of ivermectin on infection and ocular and skin disease and to explore how this depends on epidemiological and programmatic variables.

Results

Current onchocerciasis disease projections, which do not account for excess mortality of sighted individuals with heavy microfilarial loads, underestimate disease burden. Long-term annual ivermectin treatment is highly effective at reducing both the morbidity and mortality associated with onchocerciasis, and this result is not greatly influenced by treatment coverage and compliance. By contrast, impact on microfilarial prevalence and intensity is highly dependent on baseline endemicity, treatment coverage and systematic non-compliance.

Conclusions

The goals of eliminating morbidity and infection with ivermectin alone are distinctly influenced by epidemiological and programmatic factors. Whilst the former goal is most certainly achievable, reaching the latter will strongly depend on initial endemicity (the higher the endemicity, the greater the magnitude of inter-treatment transmission), advising caution when generalising the applicability of successful elimination outcomes to other areas. The proportion of systematic non-compliers will become far more influential in terms of overall success in achieving elimination goals.

Loiasis: the individual factors associated with the presence of microfilaraemia

No microfilariae are detectable in a significant percentage of those infected with the filarial worm Loa loa. While the probability of an infected individual becoming microfilaraemic is known to increase with age, the mechanisms underlying this trend are not well understood. Epidemiological data from an endemic village in central Cameroon were therefore explored, in an attempt to determine if, after taking into account any history of filaricidal treatment, the presence of Loa microfilaraemia in an individual was related to his/her gender, age, and/or exposure to the human-infective larvae of the parasite. An index of exposure, based on the monthly transmission potentials of the Chrysops in each of the main types of vegetation in a village and on the activity schedule of each inhabitant of the village, was developed. The results of the data analysis confirm that the acquisition of microfilaraemia is gender-dependent (males generally being more likely to be microfilaraemic than females), and indicate that, in males, a high level of exposure to infective larvae determines the shift from amicrofilaraemic to microfilaraemic status. They also indicate that filaricidal treatments have a long-lasting suppressive effect on Loa microfilaraemia, an observation that may have important implications for any strategy to limit the risk of Loa-associated encephalopathy following ivermectin treatment.

Uncertainty surrounding projections of the long-term impact of ivermectin treatment on human onchocerciasis

Background

Recent studies in Mali, Nigeria, and Senegal have indicated that annual (or biannual) ivermectin distribution may lead to local elimination of human onchocerciasis in certain African foci. Modelling-based projections have been used to estimate the required duration of ivermectin distribution to reach elimination. A crucial assumption has been that microfilarial production by Onchocerca volvulus is reduced irreversibly by 30–35% with each (annual) ivermectin round. However, other modelling-based analyses suggest that ivermectin may not have such a cumulative effect. Uncertainty in this (biological) and other (programmatic) assumptions would affect projected outcomes of long-term ivermectin treatment.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We modify a deterministic age- and sex-structured onchocerciasis transmission model, parameterised for savannah O. volvulus–Simulium damnosum, to explore the impact of assumptions regarding the effect of ivermectin on worm fertility and the patterns of treatment coverage compliance, and frequency on projections of parasitological outcomes due to long-term, mass ivermectin administration in hyperendemic areas. The projected impact of ivermectin distribution on onchocerciasis and the benefits of switching from annual to biannual distribution are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the drug's effect on worm fertility and on treatment compliance. If ivermectin does not have a cumulative impact on microfilarial production, elimination of onchocerciasis in hyperendemic areas may not be feasible with annual ivermectin distribution.

Conclusions/Significance

There is substantial (biological and programmatic) uncertainty surrounding modelling projections of onchocerciasis elimination. These uncertainties need to be acknowledged for mathematical models to inform control policy reliably. Further research is needed to elucidate the effect of ivermectin on O. volvulus reproductive biology and quantify the patterns of coverage and compliance in treated communities.

Studies in Mali, Nigeria, and Senegal suggest that, in some settings, it is possible to eliminate onchocerciasis after 15–17 years of ivermectin distribution. Computer models have been used to estimate the required duration of ivermectin distribution to reach elimination. Some models assume that annual ivermectin treatment reduces the fertility of the causing parasite, Onchocerca volvulus, by 30–35% each time the drug is taken. Other analyses suggest that ivermectin may not have such an effect. We explore how assumptions regarding: a) treatment effects on microfilarial production by female worms (fertility), b) proportion of people who receive the drug (coverage), c) proportion of people who adhere to treatment (compliance), and d) whether people are treated once or twice per year (frequency) affect temporal projections of infection load and prevalence in highly endemic African savannah settings. We find that if treatment does not affect parasite fertility cumulatively, elimination of onchocerciasis in highly endemic areas of Africa may not be feasible with annual ivermectin distribution alone. If two areas have equal coverage but dissimilar compliance, they may experience very different infection load, prevalence and persistence trends. Projections such as these are crucial to help onchocerciasis control programmes to plan elimination strategies effectively.

Individual exposure to Simulium bites and intensity of Onchocerca volvulus infection

Background

Onchocerca volvulus, the causative agent of river blindness, is transmitted through the black fly Simulium damnosum s.l., which breeds in turbulent river waters. To date, the number of flies attacking humans has only been determined by standard fly collectors near the river or the village. In our study, we counted the actual number of attacking and successfully feeding S. damnosum s.l. flies landing on individual villagers during their routine day-time activities in two villages of the Sudan-savannah and rainforest of Cameroon. We compared these numbers to the number of flies caught by a standard vector-collector, one positioned near the particular villager during his/her daily activity and the other sitting at the nearest Simulium breeding site.

Results

Using these data obtained by the two vector-collectors, we were able to calculate the Actual Index of Exposure (AIE). While the AIE in the savannah was on average 6,3%, it was 34% in the rainforest. The Effective Annual Transmission Potential (EATP) for individual villagers was about 20 fold higher in the rainforest compared to the savannah.

Conclusions

Here we show for the first time that it is possible to determine the EATP. Further studies with more subjects are needed in the future. These data are important for the development of future treatment strategies.

Identifying sub-optimal responses to ivermectin in the treatment of River Blindness

Identification of drug resistance before it becomes a public health concern requires a clear distinction between what constitutes a normal and a suboptimal treatment response. A novel method of analyzing drug efficacy studies in human helminthiases is proposed and used to investigate recent claims of atypical responses to ivermectin in the treatment of River Blindness. The variability in the rate at which Onchocerca volvulus microfilariae repopulate host's skin following ivermectin treatment is quantified using an individual-based onchocerciasis mathematical model. The model estimates a single skin repopulation rate for every host sampled, allowing reports of suboptimal responses to be statistically compared with responses from populations with no prior exposure to ivermectin. Statistically faster rates of skin repopulation were observed in 3 Ghanaian villages (treated 12-17 times), despite the wide variability in repopulation rates observed in ivermectin-naïve populations. Another village previously thought to have high rates of skin repopulation was shown to be indistinguishable from the normal treatment response. The model is used to generate testable hypotheses to identify whether atypical rates of skin repopulation by microfilariae could result from low treatment coverage alone or provide evidence of decreased ivermectin efficacy. Further work linking phenotypic poor responses to treatment with parasite molecular genetics markers will be required to confirm drug resistance. Limitations of the skin-snipping method for estimating parasite load indicates that changes in the distribution of microfilarial repopulation rates, rather than their absolute values, maybe a more sensitive indicator of emerging ivermectin resistance.

Human infection patterns and heterogeneous exposure in river blindness

Here we analyze patterns of human infection with Onchocerca volvulus (the cause of river blindness) in different continents and ecologies. In contrast with some geohelminths and schistosome parasites whose worm burdens typically exhibit a humped pattern with host age, patterns of O. volvulus infection vary markedly with locality. To test the hypothesis that such differences are partly due to heterogeneity in exposure to vector bites, we develop an age- and sex-structured model for intensity of infection, with parasite regulation within humans and vectors. The model is fitted to microfilarial data from savannah villages of northern Cameroon, coffee fincas of central Guatemala, and forest-dwelling communities of southern Venezuela that were recorded before introducing ivermectin treatment. Estimates of transmission and infection loads are compared with entomological and epidemiological field data. Host age- and sex-heterogeneous exposure largely explains locale-specific infection patterns in onchocerciasis (whereas acquired protective immunity has been invoked for other helminth infections). The basic reproductive number, R0, ranges from 5 to 8, which is slightly above estimates for other helminth parasites but well below previously presented values.

Associations between filarial and gastrointestinal nematodes

The possibility that positive or negative associations occur between the filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus and the gastrointestinal nematodes Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura was investigated in 205 children attending three schools in central Cameroon. Despite the closeness of their locations, marked differences between the schools were detected with respect to the number of species carried, the prevalence of O. volvulus and T. trichiura and the interaction between the prevalence of these two species. The number of species carried and these same prevalences varied significantly across the narrow age range of the study group. In addition, we observed an interaction between the prevalences of O. volvulus and A. lumbricoides that was dependent upon school but independent of host age and sex. Quantitative analyses revealed that the abundances of O. volvulus, A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura were affected by both school and age whereas host sex was significant only for O. volvulus. Finally, we observed significant positive interactions between the intensities of A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura and between O. volvulus and T. trichiura, that were school, age and sex independent. Our data suggest that associations do occur between filarial and gastrointestinal nematodes and that certain individuals are prone to multiple and high-level infections.

Diurnal biting periodicity of parous Simulium (Diptera: Simuliidae) vectors in the onchocerciasis Amazonian focus

We describe the hourly patterns of parous biting activity of the three main simuliid vectors of human onchocerciasis in the Amazonian focus straddling between Venezuela and Brazil, namely, Simulium guianense s.l. Wise; S. incrustatum Lutz, and S. oyapockense s.l. Floch and Abonnenc. Time series of the hourly numbers of host-seeking parous flies caught in five Yanomami villages during dry, rainy, and their transition periods from 1995 to 2001 were investigated using harmonic analysis (assuming an underlying circadian rhythm) and periodic correlation (based on Spearman's r). Parous S guianense s.l. showed a bimodal activity pattern, with a minor peak in mid-morning and a major peak at 16:00 h. S. incrustatum exhibited mainly unimodal activity during either early morning or midday according to locality. S. oyapockense s.l. bit humans throughout the day mainly between 10:00 and 16:00 h but also showed bimodal periodicity in some localities. Superimposed on the endogenous, species-specific daily cycles, parous activity showed variation according to locality, season, air temperature and relative humidity, with biting being promoted by warmer and drier hours during wet seasons/periods and reduced during hotter times in dry seasons or transitions. The results are discussed in terms of their implications for blackfly biology and ecology as well as onchocerciasis epidemiology and control.

Onchocerca ochengi acquisition in zebu Gudali cattle exposed to natural transmission: parasite population dynamics and IgG antibody subclass responses to Ov10/Ov11 recombinant antigens

Ngaoundere Gudali zebu cattle naturally exposed to Simulium damnosum s.l. and Culicoides spp. bites were examined during 4 years for O. ochengi adult worm acquisition, Onchocerca ochengi and Onchocerca gutturosa skin microfilaria dynamics, and IgG1 and IgG2 antibody subclass responses. Eleven animals acquired a total of 465 O. ochengi nodules (average of 17 per female and 72 per male). The O. ochengi nodule load was highly variable in individual animals and exacerbated in mature male cattle. Three patterns of acquisition of O. ochengi (resistant to new infestation, early susceptibility and late susceptibility), not associated with Simulium biting intensity (P > 0.05), were distinguished. The minimum prepatent periods for O. ochengi nodules, O. ochengi microfilariae and O. gutturosa microfilariae were 10, 20 and 21 months, respectively. The O. ochengi microfilaria density significantly (P < 0.001) increased with age, was higher in young mature bulls than female animals (P < 0.001) and finally reached highest levels (P < 0.005) during the dry season. Antibody responses to Ov10/Ov11 recombinant O. volvulus antigens were predominantly of the IgG1 subclass. High levels of this subclass (not IgG2) observed in new born calves declined to almost zero levels at the age of 5-8 months but IgG1 levels significantly increased (P < 0.05) with age subsequently during patency. Put together the acquisition and accumulation of O. ochengi parasites in zebu cattle, apart from being season, sex (gender) and host age associated, may also suggest a density-dependent regulation of parasite establishment in a proportion of the exposed population.

The relationships between the burden of adult parasites, host age and the microfilarial density in human onchocerciasis

We investigate the relationship between the microfilarial density in the skin and the burden of adult female Onchocerca volvulus by analysing pre-control nodulectomy data which allow for a direct approach, independent of exposure. The data of 169 patients in Burkina Faso and 182 patients in Liberia represent savannah and forest onchocerciasis in West Africa, respectively. Whereas in Burkina Faso, a saturating relationship between microfilarial density and worm burden suggests the operation of density-dependent processes within human hosts, the Liberian data show a linear relationship implying no density dependence. The differences may derive from differences between both parasite strains, i.e. the savannah or the forest strain of O. volvulus. Consistently for both parasite strains and independent of the worm burden, the microfilarial density increases with host age emphasising the concept of the acquisition of immunological tolerance. In male hosts in Liberia, the microfilarial density increases stronger with the worm burden than in female hosts, whereas such sex-specific differences cannot be found in Burkina Faso. In the methodological part of this investigation, we suggest the beta-distribution to be most appropriate for describing variability in microfilarial densities and we present an approach to consider the uncertainty in the adult parasite burden which cannot be determined precisely in helminth infections. Implications of density dependence are discussed with respect to immunological processes in the human host and with respect to the success of control programs. The relationships described show that regulatory processes between the parasite and the human host are multi-dimensional, operating within a high degree of biological variability.

Antibody responses in onchocerciasis as a function of age and infection intensity

Onchocerciasis is caused by the filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus and is a major public health problem in West and Central Africa. With only partial and long-term treatment currently available, there is a need to develop a suitable vaccine. We analysed the antibody response to infective L3 larvae because this stage is thought to be associated with host protective immunity. In addition, we have related our findings to the age, gender and current infection intensity of our participants: variables that may significantly influence antibody production. Interestingly, whilst 90% of our study group were seropositive for adult specific immunoglobulin (Ig)E, only 23% produced L3 specific IgE. This is in contrast to IgG4 where seropositivity was comparable at 96% and 92%, respectively. Furthermore, IgG levels were significantly affected by age and the intensity of infection but unaffected by host gender. This finding is independent for the IgG subclass (IgG1, IgG2, IgG3 and IgG4) and its specificity (L3 versus adult antigen). In summary, we show that L3 larvae induce little specific IgE and the antibody response shows a different isotype balance than that against adult antigens. Both host and parasite variables can influence antibody production in this disease.

Population biology of human onchocerciasis

Human onchocerciasis (river blindness) is the filarial infection caused by Onchocerca volvulus and transmitted among people through the bites of the Simulium vector. Some 86 million people around the world are at risk of acquiring the nematode, with 18 million people infected and 600,000 visually impaired, half of them partially or totally blind. 99% of cases occur in tropical Africa; scattered foci exist in Latin America. Until recently control programmes, in operation since 1975, have consisted of antivectorial measures. With the introduction of ivermectin in 1988, safe and effective chemotherapy is now available. With the original Onchocerciasis Control Programme of West Africa coming to an end, both the new African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control and the Onchocerciasis Elimination Programme for the Americas, rely heavily on ivermectin self-sustained mass delivery. In consequence, the need for understanding the processes regulating parasite abundance in human and simuliid populations is of utmost importance. We present a simple mathematical framework built around recent analyses of exposure- and density-dependent processes operating, respectively, within the human and vector hosts. An expression for the basic reproductive ratio, R0, is derived and related to the minimum vector density required for parasite persistence in localities of West Africa in general and northern Cameroon in particular. Model outputs suggest that constraints acting against parasite establishment in both humans and vectors are necessary to reproduce field observations, but those in humans may not fully protect against reinfection. Analyses of host age-profiles of infection prevalence, intensity, and aggregation for increasing levels of endemicity and intensity of transmission in the Vina valley of northern Cameroon are in agreement with these results and discussed in light of novel work on onchocerciasis immunology.

Onchocerciasis hyperendemic in the Unturán mountains: an extension of the endemic region in southern Venezuela

A new region with human onchocerciasis is reported in the Unturán mountains, South Venezuela, affecting Yanomamö populations not surveyed in previous studies conducted in the Venezuelan-Brazilian border area. Its distribution probably extends towards the Upper Toototobi endemic area in Brazil. The age-standardized prevalence of Onchocerca volvulus microfilariae (mf) (67%), the prevalence of infection in those aged > or = 20 years (86%), and the community microfilarial load (CMFL) (24 mf/mg), are consistent with hyperendemic transmission. Both prevalence and mean intensity increased monotonically with age without reaching a plateau, the highest values being recorded in the > or = 45 years age class (respectively, 95% and 42 [geometric mean of Williams] or 172 [arithmetic mean] mf/mg). The degree of parasite overdispersion (measured by the variance/mean ratio) also increased with host age. The CMFL value, the presence of sclerosing keratitis, hanging groin, and severe skin lesions, indicated that the infection poses an important public health problem in the region.

Forest onchocerciasis in Cameroon: its distribution and implications for selection of communities for control programmes

The prevalence of infection and disease due to Onchocerca volvulus in regions at different altitudes and distances from the nearest breeding site for the Simulium vectors were studied in a forested area of Cameroon. A total of 1,785 subjects in 14 villages underwent clinical and parasitological evaluation. According to WHO endemicity criteria, villages 267 and 720 m above the sea level (asl) were hyperendemic, whereas lower villages, at 55 n asl, were meso-endemic. Altitude was positively correlated and distance from vector breeding site negatively correlated with several clinical indicators of onchocerciasis: prevalence of infection, microfilarial density, onchocercomata, and blindness. Location and altitude of his or her village and the subject's duration of residence in the village, age and sex were all found to be independent predictors of infection by logistic regression. The observed pattern of forest onchocerciasis reflects an interplay of multiple factors rather than a simple relationship between endemicity and distance from the nearest river. In order to select communities most affected by onchocerciasis for control programmes, two indicators, the prevalence of blindness and the prevalence of onchocercomata, might be used.

Gender inequalities in health in the Third World: uncharted ground

Gender differences in health in developing countries have, until recently, received little attention from researchers, health programmes and international development efforts. This paper highlights several issues related to gender and health in the Third World on which information, especially of an empirical nature, is inadequate. These include certain health conditions and diseases for which gender differences remain largely uncharted, gender inequalities in the development of health and contraceptive technology, the lack of gender-sensitivity in the provision of health services, and gender inequalities in health policies, focusing mainly on structural adjustment. Questions urgently requiring research are identified and suggestions are made for improving the gender sensitivity of health policies and interventions.

The vector host link in filariasis

Only a minority of microfilariae taken up by the appropriate vector develop to the infestive stage, and the distribution of the resulting third-stage larvae in the vector population is overdispersed. The larvae which reach the final host at first stimulate an immune defence reaction, but this is later suppressed. The importance of these factors in the life cycles of vector-borne parasites is considered.

The transmission of onchocerciasis at a forest village in Sierra Leone. II. Man-fly contact, human activity and exposure to transmission

In the first of these papers we reported on the biting-densities of Simulium damnosum s.l., vector of onchocerciasis, at sites in and near to a village in the forest area of Sierra Leone that was well separated from any large Simulium breeding river. It was found that biting-densities and transmission levels were higher in open farmland than at riverside sites. In this paper we examine the relative time spent by the villagers at the same five sites in and near to the village of Baoma Lungibu, and compare the time spent and activity, with known Simulium biting-densities and transmission indices. It is concluded that, in this situation, the highest risk of infection with onchocerciasis was to persons of either sex in the 20-39 age group who were engaged in farming, or travelling through open farmland, during the months of June to August at the beginning of the wet season. Activities in and close to the village, even by the riverside, where shade cover was heavy, presented little risk of infection.

Studies on the dynamics of transmission of onchocerciasis in a Sudan-savanna area of North Cameroon V. What is a tolerable level of Annual Transmission Potential?

The prevalence and intensity of infection with Onchocerca volvulus were assessed in population surveys in nine villages, situated at different distances from Simulium damnosum s.l. breeding sites. The prevalence varied from 48 to 89%, the arithmetic mean densities of microfilariae per skin snip were between 16 and 109, and severe ocular lesions were found in from 1 to 22% of patients. Annual Transmission Potentials (ATP) were measured for up to three years in the near vicinity of nine villages at several fly-catching sites. Weighted means of the ATP over the three years, and of the sojourn times of the human population, were calculated at three of the villages, where the prevalence of onchocerciasis was 51, 61 and 89%. An average ATP of 100 larvae or less in the head, thorax and abdomen of the flies was associated with an onchocerciasis prevalence of 50 to 60%, a mean microfilarial density below 40 microfilariae per skin-snip, less than 5% of ocular lesions, and no onchocercal blindness. This value might therefore be considered to be an indication of the level to which the transmission must be reduced in the savanna in order to prevent the occurrence of severe ocular lesions or blindness. It is lower than the present level accepted by the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in the Volta River Basin.