Prey group defense and hunting cooperation among generalist-predators induce complex dynamics: a mathematical study

Group defense in prey and hunting cooperation in predators are two important ecological phenomena and can occur concurrently. In this article, we consider cooperative hunting in generalist predators and group defense in prey under a mathematical framework to comprehend the enormous diversity the model could capture. To do so, we consider a modified Holling-Tanner model where we implement Holling type IV functional response to characterize grazing pattern of predators where prey species exhibit group defense. Additionally, we allow a modification in the attack rate of predators to quantify the hunting cooperation among them. The model admits three boundary equilibria and up to three coexistence equilibrium points. The geometry of the nontrivial prey and predator nullclines and thus the number of coexistence equilibria primarily depends on a specific threshold of the availability of alternative food for predators. We use linear stability analysis to determine the types of hyperbolic equilibrium points and characterize the non-hyperbolic equilibrium points through normal form and center manifold theory. Change in the model parameters leading to the occurrences of a series of local bifurcations from non-hyperbolic equilibrium points, namely, transcritical, saddle-node, Hopf, cusp and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation; there are also occurrences of global bifurcations such as homoclinic bifurcation and saddle-node bifurcation of limit cycles. We observe two interesting closed 'bubble' form induced by global bifurcations due to change in the strength of hunting cooperation and the availability of alternative food for predators. A three dimensional bifurcation diagram, concerning the original system parameters, captures how the alternation in model formulation induces gradual changes in the bifurcation scenarios. Our model highlights the stabilizing effects of group or gregarious behaviour in both prey and predator, hence supporting the predator-herbivore regulation hypothesis. Additionally, our model highlights the occurrence of "saltatory equilibria" in ecological systems and capture the dynamics observed for lion-herbivore interactions.

Introgression and disruption of migration routes have shaped the genetic integrity of wildebeest populations

The blue wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) is a keystone species in savanna ecosystems from southern to eastern Africa, and is well known for its spectacular migrations and locally extreme abundance. In contrast, the black wildebeest (C. gnou) is endemic to southern Africa, barely escaped extinction in the 1900s and is feared to be in danger of genetic swamping from the blue wildebeest. Despite the ecological importance of the wildebeest, there is a lack of understanding of how its unique migratory ecology has affected its gene flow, genetic structure and phylogeography. Here, we analyze whole genomes from 121 blue and 22 black wildebeest across the genus' range. We find discrete genetic structure consistent with the morphologically defined subspecies. Unexpectedly, our analyses reveal no signs of recent interspecific admixture, but rather a late Pleistocene introgression of black wildebeest into the southern blue wildebeest populations. Finally, we find that migratory blue wildebeest populations exhibit a combination of long-range panmixia, higher genetic diversity and lower inbreeding levels compared to neighboring populations whose migration has recently been disrupted. These findings provide crucial insights into the evolutionary history of the wildebeest, and tangible genetic evidence for the negative effects of anthropogenic activities on highly migratory ungulates.

Learning shapes the development of migratory behavior

How animals refine migratory behavior over their lifetime (i.e., the ontogeny of migration) is an enduring question with important implications for predicting the adaptive capacity of migrants in a changing world. Yet, our inability to monitor the movements of individuals from early life onward has limited our understanding of the ontogeny of migration. The exploration-refinement hypothesis posits that learning shapes the ontogeny of migration in long-lived species, resulting in greater exploratory behavior early in life followed by more rapid and direct movement during later life. We test the exploration-refinement hypothesis by examining how white storks (Ciconia ciconia) balance energy, time, and information as they develop and refine migratory behavior during the first years of life. Here, we show that young birds reduce energy expenditure during flight while also increasing information gain by exploring new places during migration. As the birds age and gain more experience, older individuals stop exploring new places and instead move more quickly and directly, resulting in greater energy expenditure during migratory flight. During spring migration, individuals innovated novel shortcuts during the transition from early life into adulthood, suggesting a reliance on spatial memory acquired through learning. These incremental refinements in migratory behavior provide support for the importance of individual learning within a lifetime in the ontogeny of long-distance migration.

Predation risk drives long-term shifts in migratory behaviour and demography in a large herbivore population

Migration is an adaptive life-history strategy across taxa that helps individuals maximise fitness by obtaining forage and avoiding predation risk. The mechanisms driving migratory changes are poorly understood, and links between migratory behaviour, space use, and demographic consequences are rare. Here, we use a nearly 20-year record of individual-based monitoring of a large herbivore, elk (Cervus canadensis) to test hypotheses for changing patterns of migration in and adjacent to a large protected area in Banff National Park (BNP), Canada. We test whether bottom-up (forage quality) or top-down (predation risk) factors explained trends in (i) the proportion of individuals using 5 different migratory tactics, (ii) differences in survival rates of migratory tactics during migration and whilst on summer ranges, (iii) cause-specific mortality by wolves and grizzly bears, and (iv) population abundance. We found dramatic shifts in migration consistent with behavioural plasticity in individual choice of annual migratory routes. Shifts were inconsistent with exposure to the bottom-up benefits of migration. Instead, exposure to landscape gradients in predation risk caused by exploitation outside the protected area drove migratory shifts. Carnivore exploitation outside the protected area led to higher survival rates for female elk remaining resident or migrating outside the protected area. Cause-specific mortality aligned with exposure to predation risk along migratory routes and summer ranges. Wolf predation risk was higher on migratory routes than summer ranges of montane-migrant tactics, but wolf predation risk traded-off with heightened risk from grizzly bears on summer ranges. A novel eastern migrant tactic emerged following a large forest fire that enhanced forage in an area with lower predation risk outside of the protected area. The changes in migratory behaviour translated to population abundance, where abundance of the montane-migratory tactics declined over time. The presence of diverse migratory life histories maintained a higher total population abundance than would have been the case with only one migratory tactic in the population. Our study demonstrates the complex ways in which migratory populations change over time through behavioural plasticity and associated demographic consequences because of individuals balancing predation risk and forage trade-offs.

Gaps in modelling animal migration with evolutionary game theory: infection can favour the loss of migration

Ongoing environmental changes alter how natural selection shapes animal migration. Understanding how these changes play out theoretically can be done using evolutionary game theoretic (EGT) approaches, such as looking for evolutionarily stable strategies. Here, we first describe historical patterns of how EGT models have explored different drivers of migration. We find that there are substantial gaps in both the taxa (mammals, amphibians, reptiles, insects) and mechanisms (mutualism, interspecific competition) included in past EGT models of migration. Although enemy interactions, including parasites, are increasingly considered in models of animal migration, they remain the least studied of factors for migration considered to date. Furthermore, few papers look at changes in migration in response to perturbations (e.g. climate change, new species interactions). To address this gap, we present a new EGT model to understand how infection with a novel parasite changes host migration. We find three possible outcomes when migrants encounter novel parasites: maintenance of migration (despite the added infection cost), loss of migration (evolutionary shift to residency) or population collapse, depending on the risk and cost of getting infected, and the cost currency. Our work demonstrates how emerging infection can alter animal behaviour such as migration. This article is part of the theme issue 'Half a century of evolutionary games: a synthesis of theory, application and future directions'.

Plasticity and repeatability in spring migration and parturition dates with implications for annual reproductive success

In seasonal environments, animals should be adapted to match important life-history traits to when environmental conditions are optimal. Most animal populations therefore reproduce when resource abundance is highest to increase annual reproductive success. When facing variable, and changing, environments animals can display behavioural plasticity to acclimate to changing conditions. Behaviours can further be repeatable. For example, timing of behaviours and life history traits such as timing of reproduction may indicate phenotypic variation. Such variation may buffer animal populations against the consequences of variation and change. Our goal was to quantify plasticity and repeatability in migration and parturition timing in response to timing of snowmelt and green-up in a migratory herbivore (caribou, Rangifer tarandus, n = 132 ID-years) and their effect on reproductive success. We used behavioural reaction norms to quantify repeatability in timing of migration and timing of parturition in caribou and their plasticity to timing of spring events, while also quantifying phenotypic covariance between behavioural and life-history traits. Timing of migration for individual caribou was positively correlated with timing of snowmelt. The timing of parturition for individual caribou varied as a function of inter-annual variation in timing of snowmelt and green-up. Repeatability for migration timing was moderate, but low for timing of parturition. Plasticity did not affect reproductive success. We also did not detect any evidence of phenotypic covariance among any traits examined-timing of migration was not correlated with timing of parturition, and neither was there a correlation in the plasticity of these traits. Repeatability in migration timing suggests the possibility that the timing of migration in migratory herbivores could evolve if the repeatability detected in this study has a genetic or otherwise heritable basis, but observed plasticity may obviate the need for an evolutionary response. Our results also suggest that observed shifts in caribou parturition timing are due to plasticity as opposed to an evolutionary response to changing conditions. While this provides some evidence that populations may be buffered from the consequences of climate change via plasticity, a lack of repeatability in parturition timing could impede adaptation as warming increases.

Structure and functioning of wild and agricultural grazing ecosystems: A comparative review

For more than 10 million years, large, herd forming ruminants have thrived as parts of sustainable grazing ecosystems. Conversely, since their domestication 8,000–11,000 years ago, cattle, sheep, and goats have often exhibited dysfunctional relationships with the ecosystems they inhabit. A considerable literature, developed over decades, documents the negative impacts of animal agriculture and associated activities (e.g., feed production) on grassland ecosystems. Coincident with the accumulating data documenting the impacts of “conventional” animal agriculture, has been a growing interest in restoring functionality to agricultural grazing ecosystems. These “regenerative” protocols often seek to mimic the structure and functions of wild grazing ecosystems. The objectives of this paper were two-fold: First to review the literature describing the structure and some key functional attributes of wild and agricultural grazing ecosystems; and second, to examine these attributes in conventionally and regeneratively managed grazing ecosystems and, assuming the wild condition to be the standard for sustainable grazer-environment relationships, to ascertain whether similar relationships exist in conventionally or regeneratively managed agricultural grazing ecosystems. Not unexpectedly our review revealed the complexity of both wild and agricultural grazing ecosystems and the interconnectedness of biological, chemical, and physical factors and processes within these systems. Grazers may increase or decrease system functionality, depending upon environmental conditions (e.g., moisture levels). Our review revealed that biodiversity, nitrogen cycling, and carbon storage in regenerative grazing systems more closely resemble wild grazing ecosystems than do conventional grazing systems. We also found multiple points of disagreement in the literature, particularly with respect to aboveground primary production (ANPP). Finally, we acknowledge that, while much has been accomplished in understanding grazing ecosystems, much remains to be done. In particular, some of the variability in the results of studies, especially of meta-analyses, might be reduced if datasets included greater detail on grazing protocols, and a common definition of the term, “grazing intensity.”

Variation in movement strategies: Capital versus income migration

Animal migrations represent the regular movements of trillions of individuals. The scale of these movements has inspired human intrigue for millennia and has been intensively studied by biologists. This research has highlighted the diversity of migratory strategies seen across and within migratory taxa: while some migrants temporarily express phenotypes dedicated to travel, others show little or no phenotypic flexibility in association with migration. However, a vocabulary for describing these contrasting solutions to the performance trade-offs inherent to the highly dynamic lifestyle of migrants (and strategies intermediate between these two extremes) is currently missing. We propose a taxon-independent organising framework based on energetics, distinguishing between migrants that forage as they travel (income migrants) and those that fuel migration using energy acquired before departure (capital migrants). Not only does our capital:income continuum of migratory energetics account for the variable extent of phenotypic flexibility within and across migrant populations, but it also aligns with theoreticians' treatment of migration and clarifies how migration impacts other phases of the life cycle. As such, it provides a unifying scale and common vacabulary for comparing the migratory strategies of divergent taxa.

Predation strongly limits demography of a keystone migratory herbivore in a recovering transfrontier ecosystem

Large herbivore migrations are imperiled globally; however the factors limiting a population across its migratory range are typically poorly understood. Zambia's Greater Liuwa Ecosystem (GLE) contains one of the largest remaining blue wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus taurinus) migrations, yet the population structure, vital rates, and limiting factors are virtually unknown. We conducted a long-term demographic study of GLE wildebeest from 2012 to 2019 of 107 collared adult females and their calves, 7352 herd observations, 12 aerial population surveys, and concurrent carnivore studies. We applied methods of vital rate estimation and survival analysis within a Bayesian estimation framework. From herd composition observations, we estimated rates of fecundity, first-year survival, and recruitment as 68%, 56%, and 38% respectively, with pronounced interannual variation. Similar rates were estimated from calf-detections with collared cows. Adult survival rates declined steadily from 91% at age 2 years to 61% at age 10 years thereafter dropping more sharply to 2% at age 16 years. Predation, particularly by spotted hyena, was the predominant cause of death for all wildebeest ages and focused on older animals. Starvation only accounted for 0.8% of all unbiased known natural causes of death. Mortality risk differed substantially between wet and dry season ranges, reflecting strong spatio-temporal differences in habitat and predator densities. There was substantial evidence that mortality risk to adults was 27% higher in the wet season, and strong evidence that it was 45% higher in the migratory range where predator density was highest. The estimated vital rates were internally consistent, predicting a stable population trajectory consistent with aerial estimates. From essentially zero knowledge of GLE wildebeest dynamics, this work provides vital rates, age structure, limiting factors, and a plausible mechanism for the migratory tendency, and a robust model-based foundation to evaluate the effects of potential restrictions in migratory range, climate change, predator-prey dynamics, and poaching.

Phenological drivers of ungulate migration in South America: characterizing the movement and seasonal habitat use of guanacos

BACKGROUND

Migration is a widespread strategy among ungulates to cope with seasonality. Phenology, especially in seasonally snow-covered landscapes featuring "white waves" of snow accumulation and "green waves" of plant green-up, is a phenomenon that many migratory ungulates navigate. Guanacos (Lama guanicoe) are native camelids to South America and might be the last ungulate in South America that migrates. However, a detailed description of guanacos´ migratory attributes, including whether they surf or jump phenological waves is lacking.

METHODS

We quantified the migratory movements of 21 adult guanacos over three years in Patagonia, Argentina. We analyzed annual movement patterns using net squared displacement (NSD) and home range overlap and quantified snow and vegetation phenology via remotely sensed products.

RESULTS

We found that 74% of the individual guanacos exhibited altitudinal migrations. For migratory guanacos, we observed fidelity of migratory ranges and residence time, but flexibility around migration propensity, timing, and duration of migration. The scarce vegetation and arid conditions within our study area seemed to prevent guanacos from surfing green waves; instead, guanacos appeared to avoid white waves.

CONCLUSION

Our study shows that guanaco elevational migration is driven by a combination of vegetation availability and snow cover, reveals behavioral plasticity of their migration, and highlights the importance of snow phenology as a driver of ungulate migrations.

Viewing animal migration through a social lens

Evidence of social learning is growing across the animal kingdom. Researchers have long hypothesized that social interactions play a key role in many animal migrations, but strong empirical support is scarce except in a few unique systems and species. In this review, we aim to catalyze advances in the study of social migrations by synthesizing research across disciplines and providing a framework for understanding when, how, and why social influences shape the decisions animals make during migration. Integrating research across the fields of social learning and migration ecology will advance our understanding of the complex behavioral phenomena of animal migration and help to inform conservation of animal migrations in a changing world.

Adaptation to climate change through seasonal migration revealed by climatic versus demographic niche models

Predicting the geographic range of species and their response to climatic variation and change are entwined goals in conservation and evolutionary ecology. Species distribution models (SDMs) are foundational in this effort and used to visualize the geographic range of species as the spatial representation of its realized niche. SDMs are also used to forecast range shifts under climate change, but often in the absence of empirical evidence that climate limits population growth. We explored the influence of climate on demography, seasonal migration, and the extent of the geographic range in song sparrows (Melospiza melodia), a species thought to display marked local adaptation to regional climate. To do so, we developed SDMs to predict the demographic and climate niches of migratory and resident song sparrows across our study area in western North America from California to Alaska, using 48 years of demographic data from a focal population in British Columbia and 1.2 million continental-scale citizen science observations. Spatial agreement of our demographic and climate niche models in the region of our focal population was strong (76%), supporting the hypothesis that demographic performance and the occurrence of seasonal migration varied predictably with climatic conditions. In contrast, agreement at the northern (58%) and southern (40%) extents of our study area was lower, as expected if the factors limiting population growth vary regionally. Our results support the hypothesis that local climate drives spatial variation in the occurrence of seasonal migration in song sparrows by limiting the fitness of year-round residents, and suggest that climate warming has favored range expansions and facilitated an upward shift in elevational range song sparrows that forgo seasonal migration. Our work highlights the potential role of seasonal migration in climate adaptation and limits on the reliability of climate niche models not validated with demographic data.

Spatial pattern and shelter distribution of the ocellated lizard (Timon lepidus) in two distinct Mediterranean habitats

The knowledge of a species’ spatial ecology is essential for its conservation as it helps to implement targeted protection measures to suitable habitats. In 2011 and 2013, two French populations of ocellated lizards Timon lepidus were monitored through very high frequency (VHF) radio telemetry in two distinct Mediterranean habitats: a 77 ha scrubland (n = 8) and a 1590 ha semi-arid steppe (n = 11) corresponding to a heterogeneous and homogeneous habitat respectively. The variability in spatial estimates for the seasonal habitat use of the ocellated lizard was compared within the two sites using the Autocorrelated Kernel Density Estimation (AKDE). Recursive movement patterns and spatial repartition of shelters were further assessed to study the habitat influence on the species’ space use. No significant differences between sexes or sites were identified in the computed AKDE ranges. This inter-site approach demonstrated higher shelter revisits in core-areas than in the rest of estimated home ranges for both sites. A higher shelter density was observed in the core areas of the lizards than in the rest of their home-ranges for the Mediterranean scrubland but not for the semi-arid steppe. Such findings might attest to the species’ adaptive capabilities within two distinct Mediterranean ecosystems.

Evolutionary causes and consequences of ungulate migration

Ungulate migrations are crucial for maintaining abundant populations and functional ecosystems. However, little is known about how or why migratory behaviour evolved in ungulates. To investigate the evolutionary origins of ungulate migration, we employed phylogenetic path analysis using a comprehensive species-level phylogeny of mammals. We found that 95 of 207 extant ungulate species are at least partially migratory, with migratory behaviour originating independently in 17 lineages. The evolution of migratory behaviour is associated with reliance on grass forage and living at higher latitudes wherein seasonal resource waves are most prevalent. Indeed, originations coincide with mid-Miocene cooling and the subsequent rise of C₄ grasslands. Also, evolving migratory behaviour supported the evolution of larger bodies, allowing ungulates to exploit new ecological space. Reconstructions of migratory behaviour further revealed that seven of ten recently extinct species were probably migratory, suggesting that contemporary migrations are important models for understanding the ecology of the past.

Seeing Is Be-Leaving: Perception Informs Migratory Decisions in Sierra Nevada Bighorn Sheep (Ovis canadensis sierrae)

Seasonal migration is a behavioral response to predictable variation in environmental resources, risks, and conditions. In behaviorally plastic migrants, migration is a conditional strategy that depends, in part, on an individual’s informational state. The cognitive processes that underlie how facultative migrants understand and respond to their environment are not well understood. We compared perception of the present environment to memory and omniscience as competing cognitive mechanisms driving altitudinal migratory decisions in an endangered ungulate, the Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis sierrae) using 1,298 animal years of data, encompassing 460 unique individuals. We built a suite of statistical models to partition variation in fall migratory status explained by cognitive predictors, while controlling for non-cognitive drivers. To approximate attribute memory, we included lagged attributes of the range an individual experienced in the previous year. We quantified perception by limiting an individual’s knowledge of migratory range to the area and attributes visible from its summer range, prior to migrating. Our results show that perception, in addition to the migratory propensity of an individual’s social group, and an individual’s migratory history are the best predictors of migration in our system. Our findings suggest that short-distance altitudinal migration is, in part, a response to an individual’s perception of conditions on alterative winter range. In long-distance partial migrants, exploration of migratory decision-making has been limited, but it is unlikely that migratory decisions would be based on sensory cues from a remote target range. Differing cognitive mechanisms underpinning short and long-distance migratory decisions will result in differing levels of behavioral plasticity in response to global climate change and anthropogenic disturbance, with important implications for management and conservation of migratory species.

Large herbivores in a partially migratory population search for the ideal free home

Migration is a tactic used across taxa to access resources in temporally heterogenous landscapes. Populations that migrate can attain higher abundances because such movements allow access to higher quality resources, or reduction in predation risk resulting in increased fitness. However, most migratory species occur in partially migratory populations, a mix of migratory and non-migratory individuals. It is thought that the portion of migrants in a partial migration population is maintained either through 1) a population-level evolutionary stable state where counteracting density-dependent vital rates act on migrants and residents to balance fitness, or 2) conditional migration, where the propensity to migrate is influenced by the individual's state. However, in many respects, migration is also a form of habitat selection and the proportion of migrants and residents may be the result of density-dependent habitat selection. Here, we test whether the theory of Ideal Free Distribution (IFD) can explain the coexistence of different migratory tactics in a partially migratory population. IFD predicts individuals exhibit density-dependent vital rates and select different migratory tactics to maximize individual fitness resulting in equal fitness (λ) between tactics. We tested the predictions of IFD in a partially migratory elk population that declined by 70% with 19 years of demographic data and migratory tactic switching rates from >300 individuals. We found evidence of density dependence for resident pregnancy and adult female survival providing a fitness incentive to switch tactics. Despite differences in vital rates between migratory tactics, mean λ (fitness) was equal. However, as predicted by the IFD, individuals switched tactics toward those of higher fitness. Our analysis reveals that partial migration may be driven by tactic selection that follows the ideal free distribution. These findings reinforce that migration across taxa may be a polymorphic behavior in large herbivores where migratory tactic selection is determined by differential costs and benefits, mediated by density-dependence.

Ontogenetic shifts from social to experiential learning drive avian migration timing

Migrating animals may benefit from social or experiential learning, yet whether and how these learning processes interact or change over time to produce observed migration patterns remains unexplored. Using 16 years of satellite-tracking data from 105 reintroduced whooping cranes, we reveal an interplay between social and experiential learning in migration timing. Both processes dramatically improved individuals' abilities to dynamically adjust their timing to track environmental conditions along the migration path. However, results revealed an ontogenetic shift in the dominant learning process, whereby subadult birds relied on social information, while mature birds primarily relied on experiential information. These results indicate that the adjustment of migration phenology in response to the environment is a learned skill that depends on both social context and individual age. Assessing how animals successfully learn to time migrations as environmental conditions change is critical for understanding intraspecific differences in migration patterns and for anticipating responses to global change.

Causes, Consequences, and Conservation of Ungulate Migration

Our understanding of ungulate migration is advancing rapidly due to innovations in modern animal tracking. Herein, we review and synthesize nearly seven decades of work on migration and other long-distance movements of wild ungulates. Although it has long been appreciated that ungulates migrate to enhance access to forage, recent contributions demonstrate that their movements are fine tuned to dynamic landscapes where forage, snow, and drought change seasonally. Researchers are beginning to understand how ungulates navigate migrations, with the emerging view that animals blend gradient tracking with spatial memory, some of which is socially learned. Although migration often promotes abundant populations—with broad effects on ecosystems—many migrations around the world have been lost or are currently threatened by habitat fragmentation, climate change, and barriers to movement. Fortunately, new efforts that use empirical tracking data to map migrations in detail are facilitating effective conservation measures to maintain ungulate migration.

Identifying and correcting spatial bias in opportunistic citizen science data for wild ungulates in Norway

Many publications make use of opportunistic data, such as citizen science observation data, to infer large-scale properties of species' distributions. However, the few publications that use opportunistic citizen science data to study animal ecology at a habitat level do so without accounting for spatial biases in opportunistic records or using methods that are difficult to generalize. In this study, we explore the biases that exist in opportunistic observations and suggest an approach to correct for them. We first examined the extent of the biases in opportunistic citizen science observations of three wild ungulate species in Norway by comparing them to data from GPS telemetry. We then quantified the extent of the biases by specifying a model of the biases. From the bias model, we sampled available locations within the species' home range. Along with opportunistic observations, we used the corrected availability locations to estimate a resource selection function (RSF). We tested this method with simulations and empirical datasets for the three species. We compared the results of our correction method to RSFs obtained using opportunistic observations without correction and to RSFs using GPS-telemetry data. Finally, we compared habitat suitability maps obtained using each of these models. Opportunistic observations are more affected by human access and visibility than locations derived from GPS telemetry. This has consequences for drawing inferences about species' ecology. Models naïvely using opportunistic observations in habitat-use studies can result in spurious inferences. However, sampling availability locations based on the spatial biases in opportunistic data improves the estimation of the species' RSFs and predicted habitat suitability maps in some cases. This study highlights the challenges and opportunities of using opportunistic observations in habitat-use studies. While our method is not foolproof it is a first step toward unlocking the potential of opportunistic citizen science data for habitat-use studies.

Memories of Migrations Past: Sociality and Cognition in Dynamic, Seasonal Environments

Seasonal migrations are a widespread and broadly successful strategy for animals to exploit periodic and localized resources over large spatial scales. It remains an open and largely case-specific question whether long-distance migrations are resilient to environmental disruptions. High levels of mobility suggest an ability to shift ranges that can confer resilience. On the other hand, a conservative, hard-wired commitment to a risky behavior can be costly if conditions change. Mechanisms that contribute to migration include identification and responsiveness to resources, sociality, and cognitive processes such as spatial memory and learning. Our goal was to explore the extent to which these factors interact not only to maintain a migratory behavior but also to provide resilience against environmental changes. We develop a diffusion-advection model of animal movement in which an endogenous migratory behavior is modified by recent experiences via a memory process, and animals have a social swarming-like behavior over a range of spatial scales. We found that this relatively simple framework was able to adapt to a stable, seasonal resource dynamic under a broad range of parameter values. Furthermore, the model was able to acquire an adaptive migration behavior with time. However, the resilience of the process depended on all the parameters under consideration, with many complex trade-offs. For example, the spatial scale of sociality needed to be large enough to capture changes in the resource, but not so large that the acquired collective information was overly diluted. A long-term reference memory was important for hedging against a highly stochastic process, but a higher weighting of more recent memory was needed for adapting to directional changes in resource phenology. Our model provides a general and versatile framework for exploring the interaction of memory, movement, social and resource dynamics, even as environmental conditions globally are undergoing rapid change.

Understanding environmental patterns of canid predation on white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus)

The outcome of encounters between predators and prey affects predation rates and ultimately population dynamics. Determining how environmental features influence predation rates helps guide conservation and management efforts. We studied where gray wolves (Canis lupus Linnaeus, 1758) and coyotes (Canis latrans Say, 1823) killed white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus (Zimmermann, 1780)) in northern Wisconsin, USA. We monitored 499 white-tailed deer for cause-specific mortality between 2011 and 2014 using VHF radio collars. We investigated the locations of 125 deer mortalities and determined that 63 were canid (wolf or coyote) kill sites. We analyzed spatial patterns of kill sites using resource selection functions in a model selection framework, incorporating environmental variables including vegetative cover, human development, snow depth, and water. We found no evidence that vegetative cover or human development affected predation risk; however, we did find that increasing snow depth resulted in increased relative predation risk. This finding is consistent with existing research on the influence of snow cover on white-tailed deer survival. Our results suggest that understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of white-tailed deer predation requires a better understanding of snow depth variation in space and time. As climate change scenarios predict changes in snowfall throughout the northern hemisphere, understanding the effect on predator–prey spatial dynamics will be important for management and conservation efforts.

Variation in winter site fidelity within and among individuals influences movement behavior in a partially migratory ungulate

Many animals migrate to take advantage of temporal and spatial variability in resources. These benefits are offset with costs like increased energetic expenditure and travel through unfamiliar areas. Differences in the cost-benefit ratio for individuals may lead to partial migration with one portion of a population migrating while another does not. We investigated migration dynamics and winter site fidelity for a long-distance partial migrant, barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) of the Teshekpuk Caribou Herd in northern Alaska. We used GPS telemetry for 76 female caribou over 164 annual movement trajectories to identify timing and location of migration and winter use, proportion of migrants, and fidelity to different herd wintering areas. We found within-individual variation in movement behavior and wintering area use by the Teshekpuk Caribou Herd, adding caribou to the growing list of ungulates that can exhibit migratory plasticity. Using a first passage time–net squared displacement approach, we classified 78.7% of annual movement paths as migration, 11.6% as residency, and 9.8% as another strategy. Timing and distance of migration varied by season and wintering area. Duration of migration was longer for fall migration than for spring, which may relate to the latter featuring more directed movement. Caribou utilized four wintering areas, with multiple areas used each year. This variation occurred not just among different individuals, but state sequence analyses indicated low fidelity of individuals to wintering areas among years. Variability in movement behavior can have fitness consequences. As caribou face the pressures of a rapidly warming Arctic and ongoing human development and activities, further research is needed to investigate what factors influence this diversity of behaviors in Alaska and across the circumpolar Arctic.

Animal migration to northern latitudes: environmental changes and increasing threats

Every year, many wild animals undertake long-distance migration to breed in the north, taking advantage of seasonally high pulses in food supply, fewer parasites, and lower predation pressure in comparison with equatorial latitudes. Growing evidence suggests that climate-change-induced phenological mismatches have reduced food availability. Furthermore, novel pathogens and parasites are spreading northwards, and nest or offspring predation has increased at many Arctic and northern temperate locations. Altered trophic interactions have decreased the reproductive success and survival of migratory animals. Reduced advantages for long-distance migration have potentially serious consequences for community structure and ecosystem function. Changes in the benefits of migration need to be integrated into projections of population and ecosystem dynamics and targeted by innovative conservation actions.

Variation in movement patterns of mule deer: have we oversimplified migration?

BACKGROUND

Conservation and management of migratory animals has gained attention in recent years, but the majority of research has focused on stereotypical 'migrant' and 'resident' behaviors, often failing to incorporate any atypical behaviors or characterize migratory behaviors beyond distance and timing of the migration. With migration threatened by anthropogenic development and climate change, it is crucial that we understand the full range of migratory behaviors. Our objective was to demonstrate and characterize the variation in migration strategies, including typical and atypical migratory behaviors for mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in Utah, USA.

METHODS

Because calculation of common metrics such as distance, timing, and use of stopovers during migration did not adequately describe the variation we observed in migratory behavior for this species-particularly when animals visited multiple (> 3) ranges for extended lengths of time-we developed additional methods and categories to describe observed variation in migratory behavior. We first categorized trajectories based on the number of discrete, separate ranges and range shifts between them. Then, we further characterized the variation in migration strategies by examining the timing, duration, and distance traveled within each of the categories. We also examined if and how frequently individual deer switched among categories from year to year.

RESULTS

We classified 1218 movement trajectories from 722 adult female mule deer, and found that 54.4% were dual-range migrants, who made one round-trip to one distinct range. Multi-range migrants (23.6%) made one round-trip during which they stayed at multiple discrete ranges. Commuters (1.0%) traveled to the same range multiple times, and poly migrants (1.5%) made multiple round-trips to different ranges. Gradual movers (2.5%) did not show a discrete range shift but moved gradually between ranges, whereas residents (12.6%) never left their home ranges, and dispersers (4.4%) left but never returned. Of the deer that we monitored for multiple years, 51.2% switched among categories.

CONCLUSION

We conclude that the substantial number of atypical migratory strategies, as well as the number of deer that switched categories, underlines the importance of studying these less-stereotyped behaviors that may be exhibited by large proportions of populations. Acknowledging and investigating the full complexity and diversity in migratory strategies might uncover unknowns with respect to underlying factors and drivers of migration, and can help shape effective conservation strategies.

Population growth lags in introduced species

When introduced to new ecosystems, species' populations often grow immediately postrelease. Some introduced species, however, maintain a low population size for years or decades before sudden, rapid population growth is observed. Because exponential population growth always starts slowly, it can be difficult to distinguish species experiencing the early phases of slow exponential population growth (inherent lags) from those with actively delayed growth rates (prolonged lags). Introduced ungulates provide an excellent system in which to examine lags, because some introduced ungulate populations have demonstrated rapid population growth immediately postintroduction, while others have not. Using studies from the literature, we investigated which exotic ungulate species and populations (n = 36) showed prolonged population growth lags by comparing the doubling time of real ungulate populations to those predicted from exponential growth models for theoretical populations. Having identified the specific populations that displayed prolonged lags, we examined the impacts of several environmental and biological variables likely to influence the length of lag period. We found that seventeen populations (47%) showed significant prolonged population growth lags. We could not, however, determine the specific factors that contributed to the length of these lag phases, suggesting that these ungulate populations' growth is idiosyncratic and difficult to predict. Introduced species that exhibit delayed growth should be closely monitored by managers, who must be proactive in controlling their growth to minimize the impact such populations may have on their environment.

Elk migration influences the risk of disease spillover in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Wildlife migrations provide important ecosystem services, but they are declining. Within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), some elk Cervus canadensis herds are losing migratory tendencies, which may increase spatiotemporal overlap between elk and livestock (domestic bison Bison bison and cattle Bos taurus), potentially exacerbating pathogen transmission risk.

We combined disease, movement, demographic and environmental data from eight elk herds in the GYE to examine the differential risk of brucellosis transmission (through aborted foetuses) from migrant and resident elk to livestock.

For both migrants and residents, we found that transmission risk from elk to livestock occurred almost exclusively on private ranchlands as opposed to state or federal grazing allotments. Weather variability affected the estimated distribution of spillover risk from migrant elk to livestock, with a 7%–12% increase in migrant abortions on private ranchlands during years with heavier snowfall. In contrast, weather variability did not affect spillover risk from resident elk.

Migrant elk were responsible for the majority (68%) of disease spillover risk to livestock because they occurred in greater numbers than resident elk. On a per‐capita basis, however, our analyses suggested that resident elk disproportionately contributed to spillover risk. In five of seven herds, we estimated that the per‐capita spillover risk was greater from residents than from migrants. Averaged across herds, an individual resident elk was 23% more likely than an individual migrant elk to abort on private ranchlands.

Our results demonstrate links between migration behaviour, spillover risk and environmental variability, and highlight the utility of integrating models of pathogen transmission and host movement to generate new insights about the role of migration in disease spillover risk. Furthermore, they add to the accumulating body of evidence across taxa that suggests that migrants and residents should be considered separately during investigations of wildlife disease ecology. Finally, our findings have applied implications for elk and brucellosis in the GYE. They suggest that managers should prioritize actions that maintain spatial separation of elk and livestock on private ranchlands during years when snowpack persists into the risk period.

Movement rules determine nomadic species' responses to resource supplementation and degradation

In environments that vary unpredictably, many animals are nomadic, moving in an irregular pattern that differs from year to year. Exploring the mechanisms of nomadic movement is needed to understand how animals survive in highly variable environments, and to predict behavioural and population responses to environmental change. We developed a network model to identify plausible mechanisms of nomadic animal movement by comparing the performance of multiple movement rules along a continuum from nomadism to residency. Using simulations and analytical results, we explored how different types of habitat modifications (that augment or decrease resource availability) might affect the abundance and movement rates of animals following each of these rules. Movement rules for which departure from patches depended on resource availability and/or competition performed almost equally well and better than residency or uninformed movement under most conditions, even though animals using each rule moved at substantially different rates. Habitat modifications that stabilized resources, either by resource supplementation or degradation, eroded the benefits of informed nomadic movements, particularly for movements based on resource availability alone. These results suggest that simple movement rules can explain nomadic animal movements and determine species' responses to environmental change. In particular, landscape stabilization and supplementation might be useful strategies for promoting populations of resident animals, but would be less beneficial for managing highly mobile species, many of which are threatened by habitat disruption and changes in climate.

Wave-like Patterns of Plant Phenology Determine Ungulate Movement Tactics

Animals exhibit a diversity of movement tactics [1]. Tracking resources that change across space and time is predicted to be a fundamental driver of animal movement [2]. For example, some migratory ungulates (i.e., hooved mammals) closely track the progression of highly nutritious plant green-up, a phenomenon called "green-wave surfing" [3-5]. Yet general principles describing how the dynamic nature of resources determine movement tactics are lacking [6]. We tested an emerging theory that predicts surfing and the existence of migratory behavior will be favored in environments where green-up is fleeting and moves sequentially across large landscapes (i.e., wave-like green-up) [7]. Landscapes exhibiting wave-like patterns of green-up facilitated surfing and explained the existence of migratory behavior across 61 populations of four ungulate species on two continents (n = 1,696 individuals). At the species level, foraging benefits were equivalent between tactics, suggesting that each movement tactic is fine-tuned to local patterns of plant phenology. For decades, ecologists have sought to understand how animals move to select habitat, commonly defining habitat as a set of static patches [8, 9]. Our findings indicate that animal movement tactics emerge as a function of the flux of resources across space and time, underscoring the need to redefine habitat to include its dynamic attributes. As global habitats continue to be modified by anthropogenic disturbance and climate change [10], our synthesis provides a generalizable framework to understand how animal movement will be influenced by altered patterns of resource phenology.

The benefit and strategy of spring movements in Mongolian gazelles

Animal movement is predicted to be nomadic in areas with low temporal predictability of environmental conditions, but it remains unclear whether the costs of nomadic movement outweigh the benefits received. To examine the spring movement strategy of Mongolian gazelles (Procapra gutturosa) in Mongolia, where predictability of vegetation conditions is relatively low, we identified the type of each movement, evaluated the preferred vegetation conditions for gazelles, and quantified the benefit achieved through each spring movement. The surveyed gazelles continuously preferred areas with intermediate normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values from May to July, and spatial and temporal shifts of the distribution of preferred areas explain the long-distance movements of many gazelles in spring. Three movement types, sedentary, linear, and nomadic movement, were identified. The period when benefit varied most greatly among individuals differed between the linear and nomadic movement types. During the spring movement period, the variance of benefit was larger for the nomadic movement type, whereas during the summer it was larger for the linear movement type, suggesting the existence of different movement strategies in the Mongolian gazelle. Linear long-distance movements over a short period in the linear movement type suggest the so-called jumper strategy, whereas other movement patterns might represent the searcher strategy. Benefit loss through movements of individuals in both strategies indicate low interannual predictability of vegetation conditions in the study area, and it would explain the co-existence of multiple movement types or strategies used by Mongolian gazelles in spring.

Movement-mediated community assembly and coexistence

Organismal movement is ubiquitous and facilitates important ecological mechanisms that drive community and metacommunity composition and hence biodiversity. In most existing ecological theories and models in biodiversity research, movement is represented simplistically, ignoring the behavioural basis of movement and consequently the variation in behaviour at species and individual levels. However, as human endeavours modify climate and land use, the behavioural processes of organisms in response to these changes, including movement, become critical to understanding the resulting biodiversity loss. Here, we draw together research from different subdisciplines in ecology to understand the impact of individual-level movement processes on community-level patterns in species composition and coexistence. We join the movement ecology framework with the key concepts from metacommunity theory, community assembly and modern coexistence theory using the idea of micro-macro links, where various aspects of emergent movement behaviour scale up to local and regional patterns in species mobility and mobile-link-generated patterns in abiotic and biotic environmental conditions. These in turn influence both individual movement and, at ecological timescales, mechanisms such as dispersal limitation, environmental filtering, and niche partitioning. We conclude by highlighting challenges to and promising future avenues for data generation, data analysis and complementary modelling approaches and provide a brief outlook on how a new behaviour-based view on movement becomes important in understanding the responses of communities under ongoing environmental change.

The unique spatial ecology of human hunters

Human hunters are described as 'superpredators' with a unique ecology. Chronic wasting disease among cervids and African swine fever among wild boar are emerging wildlife diseases in Europe, with huge economic and cultural repercussions. Understanding hunter movements at broad scales has implications for how to control the spread of these diseases. Here we show, based on analysis of the settlement patterns and movements of hunters of reindeer (n = 9,685), red deer (n = 47,845), moose (n = 60,365) and roe deer (n = 42,530) from across Norway (2001-2017), that hunter density was more closely linked to human density than prey density and that hunters were largely migratory, aggregated with increasing regional prey densities and often used dogs. Hunter movements extended across Europe and to other continents. Our results provide extensive evidence that the broad-scale movements and residency patterns of postindustrial hunters relative to their prey differ from those of large carnivores.

Hidden treasure of the Gobi: understanding how water limits range use of khulan in the Mongolian Gobi

Most large herbivores in arid landscapes need to drink which constrains their movements and makes them vulnerable to disturbance. Asiatic wild ass or khulan (Equus hemionus) were widespread and abundant throughout the arid landscapes of Central Asia and Mongolia, but have undergone dramatic population declines and range constrictions; denying khulan access to water is believed to have played a major role. Mongolia's South Gobi Region now houses the world largest remaining khulan population, but is undergoing rapid land use changes. Khulan water use is poorly understood, largely due to the difficulty of mapping waterpoints used by khulan throughout their exceptionally large ranges, prone to high variations in precipitation. We used the special movement path characteristics of GPS tagged khulan to show us where water is located. We identified 367 waterpoints, 53 of which were of population importance, characterized the seasonal and circadian use, and identified snow cover as the most important variable predicting khulan visits during the non-growing season, and vegetation greenness during the growing season. Our results provide a data layer to help guide a regional khulan conservation strategy, allow predictions for other part of the global khulan range, and illustrates the overall importance of waterpoints for dryland herbivores.

Habitat predicts local prevalence of migratory behaviour in an alpine ungulate

The resource hierarchy hypothesis predicts that the most important factors limiting a species' distribution act at the coarsest spatial scales. However, resource selection behaviour affords mobile organisms the opportunity to adopt a range of tactics for navigating spatial trade-offs between competing biotic and abiotic constraints. Throughout the animal kingdom, partial migration (where some individuals migrate, and others remain resident year round) offers a pervasive example of such behavioural polymorphism. Identifying the differences between these behaviours is therefore central to understanding the conditions (habitat) needed to sustain migrant and resident populations. Here we test an extension of the resource hierarchy hypothesis. We hypothesized that rather than responding to a single limiting factor, migration and residency represent contrasting scale-specific approaches to managing trade-offs between forage, predation risk and severe winter conditions. Furthermore, we predicted that the distribution of habitat selected by migrants and residents is predictive of the local prevalence of migratory behaviour. To test these hypotheses, we quantified migratory status- (resident/migrant) and season-specific (winter/summer) differences in resource selection by eight populations of federally endangered Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep Ovis canadensis sierrae across three spatial scales: population range, individual range and within individual range. We then integrated these spatial predictions to produce separate spatial predictions of migrant and resident winter habitat. As predicted, model selection provided strong evidence for the importance of status-specific differences in resource selection. Residents showed stronger coarse-scale selection for terrain associated with predator avoidance and stronger fine-scale selection for greenness, while in migrants this pattern was reversed. Availability of migrant habitat predicted the local prevalence of migration (top model pseudo R² of .87). Our ability to respond to global declines of migratory species depends on improving our understanding of the conditions required to maintain migratory behaviour. Through explicitly contrasting migrant and resident behaviour, our results illustrate seasonal differences in migrant and resident habitat and how these two behaviours represent responses to different limiting conditions. Our analyses provides a novel empirical basis for assessing the local prevalence of migratory behaviour across large landscapes.

Environmental Differences between Migratory and Resident Ungulates—Predicting Movement Strategies in Rocky Mountain Mule Deer (Odocoileus hemionus) with Remotely Sensed Plant Phenology, Snow, and Land Cover

Migration is a valuable life history strategy for many species because it enables individuals to exploit spatially and temporally variable resources. Globally, the prevalence of species’ migratory behavior is decreasing as individuals forgo migration to remain resident year-round, an effect hypothesized to result from anthropogenic changes to landscape dynamics. Efforts to conserve and restore migrations require an understanding of the ecological characteristics driving the behavioral tradeoff between migration and residence. We identified migratory and resident behaviors of 42 mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) based on GPS locations and correlated their locations to remotely sensed indicators of forage quality, land cover, snow cover, and human land use. The model classified mule deer seasonal migratory and resident niches with an overall accuracy of 97.8% and cross-validated accuracy of 81.2%. The distance to development was the most important variable in discriminating in which environments these behaviors occur, with resident niche space most often closer to developed areas than migratory niches. Additionally, snow cover in December was important for discriminating summer migratory niches. This approach demonstrates the utility of niche analysis based on remotely sensed environmental datasets and provides empirical evidence of human land use impacts on large-scale wildlife migrations.

Plasticity in elk migration timing is a response to changing environmental conditions

Migration is an effective behavioral strategy for prolonging access to seasonal resources and may be a resilient strategy for ungulates experiencing changing climatic conditions. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), elk are the primary ungulate, with approximately 20,000 individuals migrating to exploit seasonal gradients in forage while also avoiding energetically costly snow conditions. How climate-induced changes in plant phenology and snow accumulation are influencing elk migration timing is unknown. We present the most complete record of elk migration across the GYE, spanning 9 herds and 414 individuals from 2001 to 2017, to evaluate the drivers of migration timing and test for temporal shifts. The timing of elk departure from winter range involved a trade-off between current and anticipated forage conditions, while snow melt governed summer range arrival date. Timing of elk departure from summer range and arrival on winter range were both influenced by snow accumulation and exposure to hunting. At the GYE scale, spring and fall migration timing changed through time, most notably with winter range arrival dates becoming almost 50 days later since 2001. Predicted herd-level changes in migration timing largely agreed with observed GYE-wide changes-except for predicted winter range arrival dates which did not reflect the magnitude of change detected in the elk telemetry data. Snow melt, snow accumulation, and spring green-up dates all changed through time, with different herds experiencing different rates and directions of change. We conclude that elk migration is plastic, is a direct response to environmental cues, and that these environmental cues are not changing in a consistent manner across the GYE. The impacts of changing elk migration timing on predator-prey dynamics, carnivore-livestock conflict, disease ecology, and harvest management across the GYE are likely to be significant and complex.

Migratory behaviour predicts greater parasite diversity in ungulates

Long-distance animal movements can increase exposure to diverse parasites, but can also reduce infection risk through escape from contaminated habitats or culling of infected individuals. These mechanisms have been demonstrated within and between populations in single-host/single-parasite interactions, but how long-distance movement behaviours shape parasite diversity and prevalence across host taxa is largely unknown. Using a comparative approach, we analyse the parasite communities of 93 migratory, nomadic and resident ungulate species. We find that migrants have higher parasite species richness than residents or nomads, even after considering other factors known to influence parasite diversity, such as body size and host geographical range area. Further analyses support a novel 'environmental tracking' hypothesis, whereby migration allows parasites to experience environments favourable to transmission year-round. In addition, the social aggregation and large group sizes that facilitate migration might increase infection risk for migrants. By contrast, we find little support for previously proposed hypotheses, including migratory escape and culling, in explaining the relationship between host movement and parasitism in mammals at this cross-species scale. Our findings, which support mechanistic links between long-distance movement and increased parasite richness at the species level, could help predict the effects of future environmental change on parasitism in migratory animals.

Elongation of the CA1 field of the septal hippocampus in ungulates

It is widely assumed that the hippocampal formation seen in laboratory rodents and in primates is typical of that seen in other mammals. We have tested this assumption by examining sections of brains of 56 mammals from 20 mammalian orders from images on the brainmuseum.org website. We found wide variation in the form of the hippocampal formation, the most extreme examples of which are seen in ungulates, which possess an unusual elongation of the distal CA1 of the septal hippocampus. This phenomenon has not previously been reported. In individual coronal sections of the brains of seven artiodactyl ungulates, the pyramidal layer of CA1 is four times as long as CA2 + CA3. In a perissodactyl ungulate (Burchell's zebra) the distal end of CA1 is so large that it forms a number of folds. A similar but less pronounced CA1 elongation was seen in the brains of 14 carnivores. A modest elongation of CA1 is also present in some other placental mammals, notably the elephant shrew, hyrax, capybara, beaver, and rabbit. The elongation was not present in brains of primates, marsupials, or monotremes. The distal part of CA1 has been shown to play a role in object integration into the spatial map. We hypothesize that the distal CA1 enlargement could serve to enhance the ability to integrate objects into spatial navigation, which would be an advantage for migrating herds of ungulates. We suggest that the remarkable elongation of Q5 CA1 represents a major evolutionary specialization in the ungulates.

Memory and resource tracking drive blue whale migrations

In terrestrial systems, the green wave hypothesis posits that migrating animals can enhance foraging opportunities by tracking phenological variation in high-quality forage across space (i.e., "resource waves"). To track resource waves, animals may rely on proximate cues and/or memory of long-term average phenologies. Although there is growing evidence of resource tracking in terrestrial migrants, such drivers remain unevaluated in migratory marine megafauna. Here we present a test of the green wave hypothesis in a marine system. We compare 10 years of blue whale movement data with the timing of the spring phytoplankton bloom resulting in increased prey availability in the California Current Ecosystem, allowing us to investigate resource tracking both contemporaneously (response to proximate cues) and based on climatological conditions (memory) during migrations. Blue whales closely tracked the long-term average phenology of the spring bloom, but did not track contemporaneous green-up. In addition, blue whale foraging locations were characterized by low long-term habitat variability and high long-term productivity compared with contemporaneous measurements. Results indicate that memory of long-term average conditions may have a previously underappreciated role in driving migratory movements of long-lived species in marine systems, and suggest that these animals may struggle to respond to rapid deviations from historical mean environmental conditions. Results further highlight that an ecological theory of migration is conserved across marine and terrestrial systems. Understanding the drivers of animal migration is critical for assessing how environmental changes will affect highly mobile fauna at a global scale.