Life-history adaptation under climate warming magnifies the agricultural footprint of a cosmopolitan insect pest

Climate change is affecting population growth rates of ectothermic pests with potentially dire consequences for agriculture and global food security. However, current projection models of pest impact typically overlook the potential for rapid genetic adaptation, making current forecasts uncertain. Here, we predict how climate change adaptation in life-history traits of insect pests affects their growth rates and impact on agricultural yields by unifying thermodynamics with classic theory on resource acquisition and allocation trade-offs between foraging, reproduction, and maintenance. Our model predicts that warming temperatures will favour resource allocation towards maintenance coupled with increased resource acquisition through larval foraging, and the evolution of this life-history strategy results in both increased population growth rates and per capita host consumption, causing a double-blow on agricultural yields. We find support for these predictions by studying thermal adaptation in life-history traits and gene expression in the wide-spread insect pest, Callosobruchus maculatus; with 5 years of evolution under experimental warming causing an almost two-fold increase in its predicted agricultural footprint. These results show that pest adaptation can offset current projections of agricultural impact and emphasize the need for integrating a mechanistic understanding of life-history evolution into forecasts of pest impact under climate change.

The apparent seasonal biphenism in Drosophila suzukii stems in reality from continuous reaction norms

The spotted wing drosophila (SWD) is supposed to show only two distinct seasonal phenotypes: the dark, diapausing winter morph (WM) and the light, reproductively active summer morph (SM). It is unclear if these phenotypes result from a true developmental switch or from the expression of extreme phenotypes of continuous thermal reaction norms. This study aims to investigate this question by examining traits across a range of temperatures. Using 12 developmental temperatures (8 to 30 °C), we assessed traits including viability, growth, morphology, cold tolerance, metabolic rate, and ovarian maturation. Gradual increases in temperature induced gradual changes in all these traits, indicating classical nonlinear thermal reaction norms. Low temperatures (14 °C and below) produced flies with extended development, dark color, larger size, increased cold tolerance, reduced metabolism, and delayed oogenesis, characteristic of the WM. Given the months required for emergence and egg maturation at cold, distinct generations of SWD may develop in discrete environments resulting in an apparent biphenism. What appears to be distinct phenotypes (WM and SM) may actually result from continuous thermal reaction norms. This implies the need for precise terminology in SWD. We recommend using terms like 'winter-acclimated' or 'winter phenotype' rather than 'winter morph'. © 2024 The Author(s). Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Phenotypic plasticity in the sailfin molly III: Geographic variation in reaction norms of growth and maturation to temperature and salinity

Phenotypic plasticity, the ability of a single genotype to produce different phenotypes under different environmental conditions, plays a profound role in several areas of evolutionary biology. One important role is as an adaptation to a variable environment. While plasticity is extremely well documented in response to many environmental factors, there is controversy over how much of that plasticity is adaptive. Evidence is also mixed over how often conspecific populations display qualitative differences in the nature of plasticity. We present data on the reaction norms of growth and maturation to variation in temperature and salinity in male and female sailfin mollies (Poecilia latipinna) from three locally adjacent populations from South Carolina (SC). We compare these reaction norms to those previously reported in locally adjacent populations from north Florida (NF). In general, patterns of plasticity in fish from SC were similar to those in fish from NF. The magnitude of plasticity differed; fish from SC displayed less plasticity than fish from NF. This was because SC fish grew faster and matured earlier at the lower temperatures and salinities compared to NF fish. This is a countergradient pattern of variation, in which SC fish grew faster and matured earlier in conditions that would otherwise slow growth and delay maturity. Among fish from both regions, males were much less plastic than females, especially for length at maturity. While there was no detectable heterogeneity among populations from NF, males from one of the SC populations, which is furthest from the other two, displayed a qualitatively different response in age at maturity to temperature variation than did males from the other two SC populations. The pattern of population variation in plasticity within and among regions suggests that gene flow, which diminishes with distance in sailfin mollies, plays a critical role in constraining divergence in norms of reaction.

Does the definition of a novel environment affect the ability to detect cryptic genetic variation?

Anthropogenic change exposes populations to environments that have been rare or entirely absent from their evolutionary past. Such novel environments are hypothesized to release cryptic genetic variation, a hidden store of variance that can fuel evolution. However, support for this hypothesis is mixed. One possible reason is a lack of clarity in what is meant by 'novel environment', an umbrella term encompassing conditions with potentially contrasting effects on the exposure or concealment of cryptic variation. Here, we use a meta-analysis approach to investigate changes in the total genetic variance of multivariate traits in ancestral versus novel environments. To determine whether the definition of a novel environment could explain the mixed support for a release of cryptic genetic variation, we compared absolute novel environments, those not represented in a population's evolutionary past, to extreme novel environments, those involving frequency or magnitude changes to environments present in a population's ancestry. Despite sufficient statistical power, we detected no broad-scale pattern of increased genetic variance in novel environments, and finding the type of novel environment did not explain any significant variation in effect sizes. When effect sizes were partitioned by experimental design, we found increased genetic variation in studies based on broad-sense measures of variance, and decreased variation in narrow-sense studies, in support of previous research. Therefore, the source of genetic variance, not the definition of a novel environment, was key to understanding environment-dependant genetic variation, highlighting non-additive genetic variance as an important component of cryptic genetic variation and avenue for future research.

The importance of reaction norms in dietary restriction and ageing research

Ageing research has progressed rapidly through our ability to modulate the ageing process. Pharmacological and dietary treatments can increase lifespan and have been instrumental in our understanding of the mechanisms of ageing. Recently, several studies have reported genetic variance in response to these anti-ageing interventions, questioning their universal application and making a case for personalised medicine in our field. As an extension of these findings the response to dietary restriction was found to not be repeatable when the same genetic mouse lines were retested. We show here that this effect is more widespread with the response to dietary restriction also showing low repeatability across genetic lines in the fly (Drosophila melanogaster). We further argue that variation in reaction norms, the relationship between dose and response, can explain such conflicting findings in our field. We simulate genetic variance in reaction norms and show that such variation can: 1) lead to over- or under-estimation of treatment responses, 2) dampen the response measured if a genetically heterogeneous population is studied, and 3) illustrate that genotype-by-dose-by-environment interactions can lead to low repeatability of DR and potentially other anti-ageing interventions. We suggest that putting experimental biology and personalised geroscience in a reaction norm framework will aid progress in ageing research.

Publication bias impacts on effect size, statistical power, and magnitude (Type M) and sign (Type S) errors in ecology and evolutionary biology

Collaborative efforts to directly replicate empirical studies in the medical and social sciences have revealed alarmingly low rates of replicability, a phenomenon dubbed the 'replication crisis'. Poor replicability has spurred cultural changes targeted at improving reliability in these disciplines. Given the absence of equivalent replication projects in ecology and evolutionary biology, two inter-related indicators offer the opportunity to retrospectively assess replicability: publication bias and statistical power. This registered report assesses the prevalence and severity of small-study (i.e., smaller studies reporting larger effect sizes) and decline effects (i.e., effect sizes decreasing over time) across ecology and evolutionary biology using 87 meta-analyses comprising 4,250 primary studies and 17,638 effect sizes. Further, we estimate how publication bias might distort the estimation of effect sizes, statistical power, and errors in magnitude (Type M or exaggeration ratio) and sign (Type S). We show strong evidence for the pervasiveness of both small-study and decline effects in ecology and evolution. There was widespread prevalence of publication bias that resulted in meta-analytic means being over-estimated by (at least) 0.12 standard deviations. The prevalence of publication bias distorted confidence in meta-analytic results, with 66% of initially statistically significant meta-analytic means becoming non-significant after correcting for publication bias. Ecological and evolutionary studies consistently had low statistical power (15%) with a 4-fold exaggeration of effects on average (Type M error rates = 4.4). Notably, publication bias reduced power from 23% to 15% and increased type M error rates from 2.7 to 4.4 because it creates a non-random sample of effect size evidence. The sign errors of effect sizes (Type S error) increased from 5% to 8% because of publication bias. Our research provides clear evidence that many published ecological and evolutionary findings are inflated. Our results highlight the importance of designing high-power empirical studies (e.g., via collaborative team science), promoting and encouraging replication studies, testing and correcting for publication bias in meta-analyses, and adopting open and transparent research practices, such as (pre)registration, data- and code-sharing, and transparent reporting.

Gene-by-environment interactions in plants: Molecular mechanisms, environmental drivers, and adaptive plasticity

Plants demonstrate a broad range of responses to environmental shifts. One of the most remarkable responses is plasticity, which is the ability of a single plant genotype to produce different phenotypes in response to environmental stimuli. As with all traits, the ability of plasticity to evolve depends on the presence of underlying genetic diversity within a population. A common approach for evaluating the role of genetic variation in driving differences in plasticity has been to study genotype-by-environment interactions (G × E). G × E occurs when genotypes produce different phenotypic trait values in response to different environments. In this review, we highlight progress and promising methods for identifying the key environmental and genetic drivers of G × E. Specifically, methodological advances in using algorithmic and multivariate approaches to understand key environmental drivers combined with new genomic innovations can greatly increase our understanding about molecular responses to environmental stimuli. These developing approaches can be applied to proliferating common garden networks that capture broad natural environmental gradients to unravel the underlying mechanisms of G × E. An increased understanding of G × E can be used to enhance the resilience and productivity of agronomic systems.

Age-dependent genetic variation in aggression

Understanding the extent to which behavioural variance is underlain by genotypic, environmental and genotype-by-environment effects is important for predicting how behavioural traits might respond to selection and evolve. How behaviour varies both within and among individuals can change across ontogeny, leading to differences in the relative contribution of genetic and environmental effects to phenotypic variation across ages. We investigated among-individual and among-genotype variation in aggression across ontogeny by measuring, twice as juveniles and twice as adults, both approaches and attacks against a three-dimensional-printed model opponent in eight individuals from each of eight genotypes (N = 64). Aggression was only significantly repeatable and heritabile in juveniles. Additionally, how aggression changed between juvenile and adult life-history stages varied significantly among individuals and genotypes. These results suggest that juvenile aggression is likely to evolve more rapidly via natural selection than adult aggression and that the trajectory of behavioural change across the lifespan has the potential to evolve. Determining when genetic variation explains (or does not explain) behavioural variation can further our understanding of key life-history stages during which selection might drive the strongest or swiftest evolutionary response.

Univariate and multivariate plasticity in response to incubation temperature in an Australian lizard

Environments, particularly developmental environments, can generate a considerable amount of phenotypic variation through phenotypic plasticity. Plasticity in response to incubation temperature is well characterised in egg-laying reptiles. However, traits do not always vary independently of one another, and studies encompassing a broad range of traits spanning multiple categories are relatively rare but crucial to better understand whole-organism responses to environmental change, particularly if covariation among traits may constrain plasticity. In this study, we investigated multivariate plasticity in response to incubation across three temperatures in the delicate skink, Lampropholis delicata, and whether this was affected by covariation among traits. At approximately 1 month of age, a suite of growth, locomotor performance, thermal physiology and behavioural traits were measured. Plasticity in the multivariate phenotype of delicate skinks was distinct for different incubation temperatures. Cool temperatures drove shifts in growth, locomotor performance and thermal physiology, while hot temperatures primarily caused changes in locomotor performance and behaviour. These differences are likely due to variation in thermal reaction norms, as there was little evidence that covariation among traits or phenotypic integration influenced plasticity, and there was no effect of incubation temperature on the direction or strength of covariation. While there were broad themes in terms of which trait categories were affected by different incubation treatments, traits appeared to be affected independently by developmental temperature. Comparing reaction norms of a greater range of traits and temperatures will enable better insight into these patterns among trait categories, as well as the impacts of environmental change.

Developmental Plasticity in Butterfly Eyespot Mutants: Variation in Thermal Reaction Norms Across Genotypes and Pigmentation Traits

Developmental plasticity refers to the property by which a genotype corresponds to distinct phenotypes depending on the environmental conditions experienced during development. This dependence of phenotype expression on environment is graphically represented by reaction norms, which can differ between traits and between genotypes. Even though genetic variation for reaction norms provides the basis for the evolution of plasticity, we know little about the genes that contribute to that variation. This includes understanding to what extent those are the same genes that contribute to inter-individual variation in a fixed environment. Here, we quantified thermal plasticity in butterfly lines that differ in pigmentation phenotype to test the hypothesis that alleles affecting pigmentation also affect plasticity therein. We characterized thermal reaction norms for eyespot color rings of distinct Bicyclus anynana genetic backgrounds, corresponding to allelic variants affecting eyespot size and color composition. Our results reveal genetic variation for the slope and curvature of reaction norms, with differences between eyespots and between eyespot color rings, as well as between sexes. Our report of prevalent temperature-dependent and compartment-specific allelic effects underscores the complexity of genotype-by-environment interactions and their consequence for the evolution of developmental plasticity.

Quantifying population and clone-specific non-linear reaction norms to food gradients in Daphnia magna

Phenotypic plasticity is normally quantified as a reaction norm which details how trait expression changes across an environmental gradient. Sometime reaction norms are linear, but often reaction norms are assumed to be linear because plasticity is typically quantified as the difference in trait expression measured in two environments. This simplification limits how plastic responses vary between genotypes and may also bias the predictions of models investigating how plasticity influences a population’s ability to adapt to a changing environment. Consequently, there is a pressing need to characterize the real shape of reaction norms and their genetic variability across ecologically relevant environmental gradients. To address this knowledge gap we measured the multi-trait plastic response of 7 Daphnia magna clones from the same population across a broad resource gradient. We used a Random Regression Mixed Model approach to characterize and quantify average and clone-specific responses to resource variation. Our results demonstrate that non-linear models outperformed a linear model for all 4 of the life-history traits we measured. The plastic reaction norms of all 4 traits were similar in shape and were often best described by a non-linear asymptotic model. Clonal variation in non-linear plastic responses was detectable for 3 out of the 4 traits that we measured although the nature and magnitude of variation across the resource gradient was trait-specific. We interpret our findings with respect to the impact that plasticity has on the evolutionary potential of a population in different resource environments.

Characterization, costs, cues and future perspectives of phenotypic plasticity

BACKGROUND

Plastic responses of plants to the environment are ubiquitous. Phenotypic plasticity occurs in many forms and at many biological scales, and its adaptive value depends on the specific environment and interactions with other plant traits and organisms. Even though plasticity is the norm rather than the exception, its complex nature has been a challenge in characterizing the expression of plasticity, its adaptive value for fitness and the environmental cues that regulate its expression.

SCOPE

This review discusses the characterization and costs of plasticity and approaches, considerations, and promising research directions in studying plasticity. Phenotypic plasticity is genetically controlled and heritable; however, little is known about how organisms perceive, interpret and respond to environmental cues, and the genes and pathways associated with plasticity. Not every genotype is plastic for every trait, and plasticity is not infinite, suggesting trade-offs, costs and limits to expression of plasticity. The timing, specificity and duration of plasticity are critical to their adaptive value for plant fitness.

CONCLUSIONS

There are many research opportunities to advance our understanding of plant phenotypic plasticity. New methodology and technological breakthroughs enable the study of phenotypic responses across biological scales and in multiple environments. Understanding the mechanisms of plasticity and how the expression of specific phenotypes influences fitness in many environmental ranges would benefit many areas of plant science ranging from basic research to applied breeding for crop improvement.

Genetic divergence along a climate gradient shapes chemical plasticity of a foundation tree species to both changing climate and herbivore damage

Climate change is threatening the persistence of many tree species via independent and interactive effects on abiotic and biotic conditions. In addition, changes in temperature, precipitation, and insect attacks can alter the traits of these trees, disrupting communities and ecosystems. For foundation species such as Populus, phytochemical traits are key mechanisms linking trees with their environment and are likely jointly determined by interactive effects of genetic divergence and variable environments throughout their geographic range. Using reciprocal Fremont cottonwood (Populus fremontii) common gardens along a steep climatic gradient, we explored how environment (garden climate and simulated herbivore damage) and genetics (tree provenance and genotype) affect both foliar chemical traits and the plasticity of these traits. We found that (1) Constitutive and plastic chemical responses to changes in garden climate and damage varied among defense compounds, structural compounds, and leaf nitrogen. (2) For both defense and structural compounds, plastic responses to different garden climates depended on the climate in which a population or genotype originated. Specifically, trees originating from cool provenances showed higher defense plasticity in response to climate changes than trees from warmer provenances. (3) Trees from cool provenances growing in cool garden conditions expressed the lowest constitutive defense levels but the strongest induced (plastic) defenses in response to damage. (4) The combination of hot garden conditions and simulated herbivory switched the strategy used by these genotypes, increasing constitutive defenses but erasing the capacity for induction after damage. Because Fremont cottonwood chemistry plays a major role in shaping riparian communities and ecosystems, the effects of changes in phytochemical traits can be wide reaching. As the southwestern US is confronted with warming temperatures and insect outbreaks, these results improve our capacity to predict ecosystem consequences of climate change and inform selection of tree genotypes for conservation and restoration purposes.

A reaction norm framework for the evolution of learning: how cumulative experience shapes phenotypic plasticity

Learning is a familiar process to most people, but it currently lacks a fully developed theoretical position within evolutionary biology. Learning (memory and forgetting) involves adjustments in behaviour in response to cumulative sequences of prior experiences or exposures to environmental cues. We therefore suggest that all forms of learning (and some similar biological phenomena in development, aging, acquired immunity and acclimation) can usefully be viewed as special cases of phenotypic plasticity, and formally modelled by expanding the concept of reaction norms to include additional environmental dimensions quantifying sequences of cumulative experience (learning) and the time delays between events (forgetting). Memory therefore represents just one of a number of different internal neurological, physiological, hormonal and anatomical ‘states’ that mediate the carry‐over effects of cumulative environmental experiences on phenotypes across different time periods. The mathematical and graphical conceptualisation of learning as plasticity within a reaction norm framework can easily accommodate a range of different ecological scenarios, closely linking statistical estimates with biological processes. Learning and non‐learning plasticity interact whenever cumulative prior experience causes a modification in the reaction norm (a) elevation [mean phenotype], (b) slope [responsiveness], (c) environmental estimate error [informational memory] and/or (d) phenotypic precision [skill acquisition]. Innovation and learning new contingencies in novel (laboratory) environments can also be accommodated within this approach. A common reaction norm approach should thus encourage productive cross‐fertilisation of ideas between traditional studies of learning and phenotypic plasticity. As an example, we model the evolution of plasticity with and without learning under different levels of environmental estimation error to show how learning works as a specific adaptation promoting phenotypic plasticity in temporally autocorrelated environments. Our reaction norm framework for learning and analogous biological processes provides a conceptual and mathematical structure aimed at usefully stimulating future theoretical and empirical investigations into the evolution of plasticity across a wider range of ecological contexts, while providing new interdisciplinary connections regarding learning mechanisms.

Adaptive divergence generates distinct plastic responses in two closely related Senecio species

The evolution of plastic responses to external cues allows species to maintain fitness in response to the environmental variations they regularly experience. However, it remains unclear how plasticity evolves during adaptation. To test whether distinct patterns of plasticity are associated with adaptive divergence, we quantified plasticity for two closely related but ecologically divergent Sicilian daisy species (Senecio, Asteraceae). We sampled 40 representative genotypes of each species from their native range on Mt. Etna and then reciprocally transplanted multiple clones of each genotype into four field sites along an elevational gradient that included the native elevational range of each species, and two intermediate elevations. At each elevation, we quantified survival and measured leaf traits that included investment (specific leaf area), morphology, chlorophyll fluorescence, pigment content, and gene expression. Traits and differentially expressed genes that changed with elevation in one species often showed little changes in the other species, or changed in the opposite direction. As evidence of adaptive divergence, both species performed better at their native site and better than the species from the other habitat. Adaptive divergence is, therefore, associated with the evolution of distinct plastic responses to environmental variation, despite these two species sharing a recent common ancestor.

Genomic reaction norms inform predictions of plastic and adaptive responses to climate change

Genomic reaction norms represent the range of gene expression phenotypes (usually mRNA transcript levels) expressed by a genotype along an environmental gradient. Reaction norms derived from common‐garden experiments are powerful approaches for disentangling plastic and adaptive responses to environmental change in natural populations. By treating gene expression as a phenotype in itself, genomic reaction norms represent invaluable tools for exploring causal mechanisms underlying organismal responses to climate change across multiple levels of biodiversity.

Our goal is to provide the context, framework and motivation for applying genomic reaction norms to study the responses of natural populations to climate change.

Here, we describe the utility of integrating genomics with common‐garden‐gradient experiments under a reaction norm analytical framework to answer fundamental questions about phenotypic plasticity, local adaptation, their interaction (i.e. genetic variation in plasticity) and future adaptive potential.

An experimental and analytical framework for constructing and analysing genomic reaction norms is presented within the context of polygenic climate change responses of structured populations with gene flow. Intended for a broad eco‐evo readership, we first briefly review adaptation with gene flow and the importance of understanding the genomic basis and spatial scale of adaptation for conservation and management of structured populations under anthropogenic change. Then, within a high‐dimensional reaction norm framework, we illustrate how to distinguish plastic, differentially expressed (difference in reaction norm intercepts) and differentially plastic (difference in reaction norm slopes) genes, highlighting the areas of opportunity for applying these concepts.

We conclude by discussing how genomic reaction norms can be incorporated into a holistic framework to understand the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of climate change responses from molecules to ecosystems. We aim to inspire researchers to integrate gene expression measurements into common‐garden experimental designs to investigate the genomics of climate change responses as sequencing costs become increasingly accessible.

Genotypic variation and plasticity in climate-adaptive traits after range expansion and fragmentation of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.)

Shifting range limits are predicted for many species as the climate warms. However, the rapid pace of climate change will challenge the natural dispersal capacity of long-lived, sessile organisms such as forest trees. Adaptive responses of populations will, therefore, depend on levels of genetic variation and plasticity for climate-responsive traits, which likely vary across the range due to expansion history and current patterns of selection. Here, we study levels of genetic and plastic variation for phenology and growth traits in populations of red spruce (Picea rubens), from the range core to the highly fragmented trailing edge. We measured more than 5000 offspring sampled from three genetically distinct regions (core, margin and edge) grown in three common gardens replicated along a latitudinal gradient. Genetic variation in phenology and growth showed low to moderate heritability and differentiation among regions, suggesting some potential to respond to selection. Phenology traits were highly plastic, but this plasticity was generally neutral or maladaptive in the effect on growth, revealing a potential liability under warmer climates. These results suggest future climate adaptation will depend on the regional availability of genetic variation in red spruce and provide a resource for the design and management of assisted gene flow. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.

Sexual dimorphism in phenotypic plasticity and persistence under environmental change: An extension of theory and meta-analysis of current data

Populations must adapt to environmental changes to remain viable. Both evolution and phenotypic plasticity contribute to adaptation, with plasticity possibly being more important for coping with rapid change. Adaptation is complex in species with separate sexes, as the sexes can differ in the strength or direction of natural selection, the genetic basis of trait variation, and phenotypic plasticity. Many species show sex differences in plasticity, yet how these differences influence extinction susceptibility remains unclear. We first extend theoretical models of population persistence in changing environments and show that persistence is affected by sexual dimorphism for phenotypic plasticity, trait genetic architecture, and sex-specific selection. Our models predict that female-biased adaptive plasticity-particularly in traits with modest-to-low cross-sex genetic correlations-typically promotes persistence, though we also identify conditions where sexually monomorphic or male-biased plasticity promotes persistence. We then perform a meta-analysis of sex-specific plasticity under manipulated thermal conditions. Although examples of sexually dimorphic plasticity are widely observed, systematic sex differences are rare. An exception-cold resistance-is systematically female-biased and represents a trait wherein sexually dimorphic plasticity might elevate population viability in changing environments. We discuss our results in light of debates about the roles of evolution and plasticity in extinction susceptibility.

Inherent conflicts between reaction norm slope and plasticity indices when comparing plasticity: a conceptual framework and empirical test

Phenotypic plasticity index (PI), the slope of reaction norm (K) and relative distances plasticity index (RDPI), the most commonly used estimators, have occasionally been found to generate different plasticity rankings between groups (species, populations, cultivars or genotypes). However, no effort has been made to determine how frequent this incongruence is, and the factors that influence the occurrence of the incongruence. To address these problems, we first proposed a conceptual framework and then tested the framework (its predictions) by reanalyzing 1248 sets of published data. Our framework reveals inherent conflicts between K and PI or RDPI when comparing plasticity between two groups, and the frequency of these conflicts increases with increasing inter-group initial trait difference and/or K values of the groups compared. More importantly, the estimators also affect the magnitude of the inter-group plasticity differences even when they do not change groups' plasticity rankings. The above-mentioned effects of plasticity estimators were confirmed by our empirical test using data from the literature, and the conflicts occur in 203 (16%) of the 1248 comparisons between K and indices, indicating that a considerable proportion of the comparative conclusions on plasticity in literature are estimator-dependent. The frequency of the conflicts is influenced by phylogenetic relatedness of the groups compared, being lower when comparing within relative to between species, but not by specific types of environments, traits and species. Our study indicates that care is needed to select estimator when comparing groups' plasticity, and that the conclusions in relevant literature should be treated with great caution.

Properties of phenotypic plasticity in discrete threshold traits

Forms of phenotypic plasticity in key traits, and forms of selection on and genetic variation in such plasticity, fundamentally underpin phenotypic, population dynamic, and evolutionary responses to environmental variation and directional change. Accordingly, numerous theoretical and empirical studies have examined properties and consequences of plasticity, primarily considering traits that are continuously distributed on observed phenotypic scales with linear reaction norms. However, many environmentally sensitive traits are expressed as discrete alternative phenotypes and are appropriately characterized as quantitative genetic threshold traits. Here, we highlight that forms of phenotypic plasticity, genetic variation, and inheritance in plasticity, and outcomes of selection on plasticity, could differ substantially between threshold traits and continuously distributed traits (as are typically considered). We thereby highlight theoretical developments that are required to rationalize and predict phenotypic and microevolutionary dynamics involving plastic threshold traits, and outline how intrinsic properties of such traits could provide relatively straightforward explanations for apparently idiosyncratic observed patterns of phenotypic variation. We summarize how key quantitative genetic parameters underlying threshold traits can be estimated, and thereby set the scene for embedding dynamic discrete traits into theoretical and empirical understanding of the role of plasticity in driving phenotypic, population, and evolutionary responses to environmental variation and change.

The Potential for Physiological Performance Curves to Shape Environmental Effects on Social Behavior

As individual animals are exposed to varying environmental conditions, phenotypic plasticity will occur in a vast array of physiological traits. For example, shifts in factors such as temperature and oxygen availability can affect the energy demand, cardiovascular system, and neuromuscular function of animals that in turn impact individual behavior. Here, we argue that nonlinear changes in the physiological traits and performance of animals across environmental gradients—known as physiological performance curves—may have wide-ranging effects on the behavior of individual social group members and the functioning of animal social groups as a whole. Previous work has demonstrated how variation between individuals can have profound implications for socially living animals, as well as how environmental conditions affect social behavior. However, the importance of variation between individuals in how they respond to changing environmental conditions has so far been largely overlooked in the context of animal social behavior. First, we consider the broad effects that individual variation in performance curves may have on the behavior of socially living animals, including: (1) changes in the rank order of performance capacity among group mates across environments; (2) environment-dependent changes in the amount of among- and within-individual variation, and (3) differences among group members in terms of the environmental optima, the critical environmental limits, and the peak capacity and breadth of performance. We then consider the ecological implications of these effects for a range of socially mediated phenomena, including within-group conflict, within- and among group assortment, collective movement, social foraging, predator-prey interactions and disease and parasite transfer. We end by outlining the type of empirical work required to test the implications for physiological performance curves in social behavior.

Population-specific responses of an insect herbivore to variation in host-plant quality

Anthropogenic climate change poses a substantial challenge to many organisms, to which they need to respond to avoid fitness reductions. Investigating responses to environmental change is particularly interesting in herbivores, as they are potentially affected by indirect effects mediated via variation in host-plant quality. We here use the herbivorous insect Pieris napi to investigate geographic variation in the response to variation in food quality. We performed a common garden experiment using replicated populations from Germany and Italy, and manipulated host quality by growing host plants at different temperature and water regimes. We found that feeding on plants grown at a higher temperature generally diminished the performance of P. napi, evidenced by a prolonged development time and reduced larval growth rate, body mass, fat content, and phenoloxidase activity. Genotype by environment interactions (G × E) were present in several performance traits, indicating that Italian populations (1) respond more strongly to variation in host-plant quality and (2) are more sensitive to poor food quality than German ones. This may reflect a cost of the rapid lifestyle found in Italian populations. Consequently, German populations may be more resilient against environmental perturbations and may perhaps even benefit from warmer temperatures, while Italian populations will likely suffer from the concomitantly reduced host-plant quality. Our study thus exemplifies how investigating G × E may help to better understand the vulnerability of populations to climate change.

Two Locomotor Traits Show Different Patterns of Developmental Plasticity Between Closely Related Clonal and Sexual Fish

The capacity to compensate for environmental change determines population persistence and biogeography. In ectothermic organisms, performance at different temperatures can be strongly affected by temperatures experienced during early development. Such developmental plasticity is mediated through epigenetic mechanisms that induce phenotypic changes within the animal's lifetime. However, epigenetic modifiers themselves are encoded by DNA so that developmental plasticity could itself be contingent on genetic diversity. In this study, we test the hypothesis that the capacity for developmental plasticity depends on a species' among-individual genetic diversity. To test this, we exploited a unique species complex that contains both the clonal, genetically identical Amazon molly (Poecilia formosa), and the sexual, genetically diverse Atlantic molly (Poecilia mexicana). We predicted that the greater among-individual genetic diversity in the Atlantic molly may increase their capacity for developmental plasticity. We raised both clonal and sexual mollies at either warm (28°C) or cool (22°C) temperatures and then measured locomotor capacity (critical sustained swimming performance) and unforced movement in an open field across a temperature gradient that simulated environmental conditions often experienced by these species in the wild. In the clonal Amazon molly, differences in the developmental environment led to a shift in the thermal performance curve of unforced movement patterns, but much less so in maximal locomotor capacity. In contrast, the sexual Atlantic mollies exhibited the opposite pattern: developmental plasticity was present in maximal locomotor capacity, but not in unforced movement. Thus our data show that developmental plasticity in clones and their sexual, genetically more diverse sister species is trait dependent. This points toward mechanistic differences in how genetic diversity mediates plastic responses exhibited in different traits.

Preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses in ecology and evolutionary biology: a PRISMA extension

Since the early 1990s, ecologists and evolutionary biologists have aggregated primary research using meta-analytic methods to understand ecological and evolutionary phenomena. Meta-analyses can resolve long-standing disputes, dispel spurious claims, and generate new research questions. At their worst, however, meta-analysis publications are wolves in sheep's clothing: subjective with biased conclusions, hidden under coats of objective authority. Conclusions can be rendered unreliable by inappropriate statistical methods, problems with the methods used to select primary research, or problems within the primary research itself. Because of these risks, meta-analyses are increasingly conducted as part of systematic reviews, which use structured, transparent, and reproducible methods to collate and summarise evidence. For readers to determine whether the conclusions from a systematic review or meta-analysis should be trusted - and to be able to build upon the review - authors need to report what they did, why they did it, and what they found. Complete, transparent, and reproducible reporting is measured by 'reporting quality'. To assess perceptions and standards of reporting quality of systematic reviews and meta-analyses published in ecology and evolutionary biology, we surveyed 208 researchers with relevant experience (as authors, reviewers, or editors), and conducted detailed evaluations of 102 systematic review and meta-analysis papers published between 2010 and 2019. Reporting quality was far below optimal and approximately normally distributed. Measured reporting quality was lower than what the community perceived, particularly for the systematic review methods required to measure trustworthiness. The minority of assessed papers that referenced a guideline (~16%) showed substantially higher reporting quality than average, and surveyed researchers showed interest in using a reporting guideline to improve reporting quality. The leading guideline for improving reporting quality of systematic reviews is the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. Here we unveil an extension of PRISMA to serve the meta-analysis community in ecology and evolutionary biology: PRISMA-EcoEvo (version 1.0). PRISMA-EcoEvo is a checklist of 27 main items that, when applicable, should be reported in systematic review and meta-analysis publications summarising primary research in ecology and evolutionary biology. In this explanation and elaboration document, we provide guidance for authors, reviewers, and editors, with explanations for each item on the checklist, including supplementary examples from published papers. Authors can consult this PRISMA-EcoEvo guideline both in the planning and writing stages of a systematic review and meta-analysis, to increase reporting quality of submitted manuscripts. Reviewers and editors can use the checklist to assess reporting quality in the manuscripts they review. Overall, PRISMA-EcoEvo is a resource for the ecology and evolutionary biology community to facilitate transparent and comprehensively reported systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

Phylogenetic patterns of trait and trait plasticity evolution: Insights from tadpoles

Environmental heterogeneity has led to the widespread evolution of phenotypic plasticity in all taxonomic groups. Although phenotypic plasticity has been examined from multiple perspectives, few studies have examined evolutionary patterns of plasticity within a phylogeny. We conducted common-garden experiments on 20 species of tadpoles, spanning three families, exposed for 4 weeks to a control, predator cues, or reduced food (i.e., increased intraspecific competition). We quantified tadpole activity, growth, and relative morphology and found widespread differences in species responses to predator cues and reduced food. We detected pervasive phylogenetic signals in traits within each environment, but the phylogenetic signal was much less common in the trait plasticities. Among different models of continuous character evolution, Brownian Motion and Ornstein Uhlenbeck models provided better fits to the data than the Early Burst model. Tadpole activity level in predator environments had much higher evolutionary rates than in the control and reduced-food environments; we did not see this pattern in the other traits. In comparing traits versus trait plasticities, activity evolved much faster than the plasticity of activity whereas morphological traits evolved much slower than morphological plasticities. Collectively, these results suggest that traits and trait plasticities can exhibit dramatically different evolutionary patterns.

Could plasticity mediate highlands lizards' resilience to climate change? A case study of the leopard iguana (Diplolaemus leopardinus) in Central Andes of Argentina

The predicted rise of global temperatures is of major concern for ectotherms because of its direct impact on their behavior and physiology. As physiological performance mediates a species' resilience to warming exposure, physiological plasticity could greatly reduce the susceptibility to climate change. We studied the degree to which Diplolaemus leopardinus lizards are able to adjust behavioral and physiological traits in response to short periods of temperature change. We used a split cross design to measure the acclimation response of preferred body temperature (Tp), and the thermal performance curve of resting metabolic rate (RMR) and evaporative water loss (EWL). Our results showed that plasticity differs among traits: whereas Tp and EWL showed lower values in warm conditions, the body temperature at which RMR was highest increased. Moreover, RMR was affected by thermal history, showing a large increase in response to cold exposure in the group initially acclimated to warm temperatures. The reduction of EWL and the increase in optimal temperature will give lizards the potential to partially mitigate the impact of rising temperatures in the energy cost and water balance. However, the decrease in Tp and the sensitivity to the warm thermal history of RMR could be detrimental to the energy net gain, increasing the species' vulnerability, especially considering the increase of heat waves predicted for the next 50 years. The integration of acclimation responses in behavioral and physiological traits provides a better understanding of the range of possible responses of lizards to cope with the upcoming climatic and environmental modifications expected as a result of climate change.

Phenotypic plasticity can reverse the relative extent of intra- and interspecific variability across a thermal gradient

Intra- and interspecific variability can both ensure ecosystem functions. Generalizing the effects of individual and species assemblages requires understanding how much within and between species trait variation is genetically based or results from phenotypic plasticity. Phenotypic plasticity can indeed lead to rapid and important changes of trait distributions, and in turn community functionality, depending on environmental conditions, which raises a crucial question: could phenotypic plasticity modify the relative importance of intra- and interspecific variability along environmental gradients? We quantified the fundamental niche of five genotypes in monocultures for each of five ciliate species along a wide thermal gradient in standardized conditions to assess the importance of phenotypic plasticity for the level of intraspecific variability compared to differences between species. We showed that phenotypic plasticity strongly influences trait variability and reverses the relative extent of intra- and interspecific variability along the thermal gradient. Our results show that phenotypic plasticity may lead to either increase or decrease of functional trait variability along environmental gradients, making intra- and interspecific variability highly dynamic components of ecological systems.

Genotype-environment interaction reveals varied developmental responses to unpredictable host phenology in a tropical insect

Understanding the genetic architecture of life history plasticity may inform resilience under environmental change, but relatively little is known for the inhabitants of unpredictable wet-dry tropical environments. Here, I explore the quantitative genetics of juvenile growth and development relative to hostplant phenology in the butterfly Eurema hecabe. Wet season generations of this species breed explosively on leguminous annuals whereas dry season generations subsist at low density upon an alternative perennial host. The wet-to-dry season transition is temporally unpredictable and marked by widespread host defoliation, forcing a large cohort of stranded larvae to either pupate prematurely or prolong development in the hope of renewed foliage production. A split-brood experiment demonstrated greater performance on high quality annual as opposed to perennial host foliage and a marked decline under the stressed conditions faced by stranded wet season larvae. Genetic variances for rates of growth and development were equivalent among high quality treatments but strikingly elevated under resource stress, and the associated cross-environment genetic correlations were indistinguishable from zero. The results demonstrate genotype-environment interaction involving both rank order and variance scale, thereby revealing genetic variance for norms of reaction that may reflect variable risk aversion given an unpredictable tropical host phenology.

Climate vulnerability of South American freshwater fish: Thermal tolerance and acclimation

Freshwater fish are restricted by their physiology to rivers and lakes, and are generally limited in their capacity to disperse across basins. As a result, there is often a close match between the evolutionary history of river basins and their natural history. Thus, the regional landscape and ecological features, such as temperature, have shaped the evolution and adaptation of local fish assemblages. Climate change is expected to affect fish diversity and increase extinction, especially in low latitudes, and it has been suggested that species that inhabit low latitude species are more susceptible since they live close to their maximum thermal limits and have low capacity for acclimation. To understand the mechanisms of variation in thermal tolerance across a broad-scale of South American fishes is fundamental to be able to assess the vulnerability of species and habitat to global warming. Herein, we present the first attempt to analyze the vulnerability of South American freshwater fish species, based on the review of upper thermal limits of 106 species from a broad range of latitudinal habitats. Our findings show that upper thermal limits decrease with latitude, while the thermal safety margin (TSM) increase. Furthermore, the latitude has little effects on the acclimation response ratio, and the TSM decreased with rising temperatures. These data suggest that thermal phenotypic acclimation has low potential for mitigating global warming. These results indicate that South American fish species living in tropical areas are more susceptible to global warming since they are already living close to their maximum habitat temperature.

The plasticity of ungulate migration in a changing world

Migratory ungulates are thought to be declining globally because their dependence on large landscapes renders them highly vulnerable to environmental change. Yet recent studies reveal that many ungulate species can adjust their migration propensity in response to changing environmental conditions to potentially improve population persistence. In addition to the question of whether to migrate, decisions of where and when to migrate appear equally fundamental to individual migration tactics, but these three dimensions of plasticity have rarely been explored together. Here, we expand the concept of migratory plasticity beyond individual switches in migration propensity to also include spatial and temporal adjustments to migration patterns. We develop a novel typological framework that delineates every potential change type within the three dimensions, then use this framework to guide a literature review. We discuss broad patterns in migratory plasticity, potential drivers of migration change, and research gaps in the current understanding of this trait. Our result reveals 127 migration change events in direct response to natural and human-induced environmental changes across 27 ungulate species. Species that appeared in multiple studies showed multiple types of change, with some exhibiting the full spectrum of migratory plasticity. This result highlights that multidimensional migratory plasticity is pervasive in ungulates, even as the manifestation of plasticity varies case by case. However, studies thus far have rarely been able to determine the fitness outcomes of different types of migration change, likely due to the scarcity of long-term individual-based demographic monitoring as well as measurements encompassing a full behavioral continuum and environmental gradient for any given species. Recognizing and documenting the full spectrum of migratory plasticity marks the first step for the field of migration ecology to employ quantitative methods, such as reaction norms, to predict migration change along environmental gradients. Closer monitoring for changes in migratory propensity, routes, and timing may improve the efficacy of conservation strategies and management actions in a rapidly changing world.

Adaptive Plasticity as a Fitness Benefit of Mate Choice

Phenotypic plasticity and sexual selection can each promote adaptation in variable environments, but their combined influence on adaptive evolution is not well understood. We propose that sexual selection can facilitate adaptation in variable environments when individuals prefer mates that produce adaptively plastic offspring. We develop this hypothesis and review existing studies showing that diverse groups display both sexual selection and plasticity in nonsexual traits. Thus, plasticity could be a widespread but unappreciated benefit of mate choice. We describe methods and opportunities to test this hypothesis and describe how sexual selection might foster the evolution of phenotypic plasticity. Understanding this interplay between sexual selection and phenotypic plasticity might help predict which species will adapt to a rapidly changing world.

Differential effects of the urban heat island on thermal responses of freshwater fishes from unmanaged and managed systems

A lack of understanding exists regarding how freshwater species will respond to increases in temperature associated with ongoing changes in climate. Non-urban to urban thermal gradients generated by urban heat islands can serve as models to characterize the effects of relatively consistent increases in temperature on freshwater ecosystems over several decades. This study investigates the apparent responses of two freshwater fish species, Campostoma anomalum (Central Stoneroller) and Lepomis macrochirus (Bluegill), to directional changes in temperature over the past century across the non-urban to urban gradient in the Saint Louis, Missouri region in the central United States. Differences in air temperature across this gradient have increased by approximately 3 °C since 1920. Critical thermal maximum (CTMax) assays were conducted on individuals from fish populations across this gradient from either streams (C. anomalum) or ponds (L. macrochirus) to assess whether thermal tolerance is associated with water temperature among sites. According to expectations based on the effect of an urban heat island, maximum water temperature at stream sites was positively correlated with percent urban landcover around the sites. Moreover, CTMax among populations of C. anomalum was positively correlated with maximum water temperature at each site, suggesting that this species has likely responded to increases in temperature over the past several decades. There was no relationship between percent urban landcover and maximum water temperature in the pond systems. There was also no relationship between CTMax and maximum water temperature among L. macrochirus populations. The pond systems and populations of L. macrochirus are highly managed, which may limit local physical and biological responses to increases in air temperature. Results suggest that freshwater habitats in urban environments and the species inhabiting these areas are responding differently to recent increases in air temperature, highlighting the complexity of the physical and biological components of these systems.

On the use of the coefficient of variation to quantify and compare trait variation

Meaningful comparison of variation in quantitative trait requires controlling for both the dimension of the varying entity and the dimension of the factor generating variation. Although the coefficient of variation (CV; standard deviation divided by the mean) is often used to measure and compare variation of quantitative traits, it only accounts for the dimension of the former, and its use for comparing variation may sometimes be inappropriate. Here, we discuss the use of the CV to compare measures of evolvability and phenotypic plasticity, two variational properties of quantitative traits. Using a dimensional analysis, we show that contrary to evolvability, phenotypic plasticity cannot be meaningfully compared across traits and environments by mean‐scaling trait variation. We further emphasize the need of remaining cognizant of the dimensions of the traits and the relationship between mean and standard deviation when comparing CVs, even when the scales on which traits are expressed allow meaningful calculation of the CV.

Adaptation to climate change through genetic accommodation and assimilation of plastic phenotypes

Theory suggests that evolutionary changes in phenotypic plasticity could either hinder or facilitate evolutionary rescue in a changing climate. Nevertheless, the actual role of evolving plasticity in the responses of natural populations to climate change remains unresolved. Direct observations of evolutionary change in nature are rare, making it difficult to assess the relative contributions of changes in trait means versus changes in plasticity to climate change responses. To address this gap, this review explores several proxies that can be used to understand evolving plasticity in the context of climate change, including space for time substitutions, experimental evolution and tests for genomic divergence at environmentally responsive loci. Comparisons among populations indicate a prominent role for divergence in environmentally responsive traits in local adaptation to climatic gradients. Moreover, genomic comparisons among such populations have identified pervasive divergence in the regulatory regions of environmentally responsive loci. Taken together, these lines of evidence suggest that divergence in plasticity plays a prominent role in adaptation to climatic gradients over space, indicating that evolving plasticity is also likely to play a key role in adaptive responses to climate change through time. This suggests that genetic variation in plastic responses to the environment (G × E) might be an important predictor of species' vulnerabilities to climate-driven decline or extinction. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.

Evolution of phenotypic plasticity: Genetic differentiation and additive genetic variation for induced plant defence in wild arugula Eruca sativa

Phenotypic plasticity is the primary mechanism of organismal resilience to abiotic and biotic stress, and genetic differentiation in plasticity can evolve if stresses differ among populations. Inducible defence is a common form of adaptive phenotypic plasticity, and long-standing theory predicts that its evolution is shaped by costs of the defensive traits, costs of plasticity and a trade-off in allocation to constitutive versus induced traits. We used a common garden to study the evolution of defence in two native populations of wild arugula Eruca sativa (Brassicaceae) from contrasting desert and Mediterranean habitats that differ in attack by caterpillars and aphids. We report genetic differentiation and additive genetic variance for phenology, growth and three defensive traits (toxic glucosinolates, anti-nutritive protease inhibitors and physical trichome barriers) as well their inducibility in response to the plant hormone jasmonic acid. The two populations were strongly differentiated for plasticity in nearly all traits. There was little evidence for costs of defence or plasticity, but constitutive and induced traits showed a consistent additive genetic trade-off within each population for the three defensive traits. We conclude that these populations have evolutionarily diverged in inducible defence and retain ample potential for the future evolution of phenotypic plasticity in defence.

Agroecological assessment of the effectiveness of irrigation of tomato using electrolyzed water

Aim. The purpose of the research is to quantify the agroecological response of  plants and the bio‐productivity of crops to irrigation using electrochemical water  treatment technology.   

Material and Methods. The study was carried out using the tomato (Solanum lycoparsicum, hybrid Pink Paradise F1) in a protected ground culture as an example. The  experimental site is located in the dry‐steppe zone of light chestnut soils of the  Lower Volga region (48о56΄46˝N44о51΄45˝E). The magnitude of the electrochemically initiated shift of the redox potential of irrigation water and the options for  combining the use of electrochemically treated water were taken as variable experimental factors.   

Results. It was established that the magnitude of the electrochemically initiated  shift of the redox potential of irrigation water has a predominant effect on the estimated biometric indicators: the coefficient of variation of the indicators for this  factor reached 9.5‐38.0%. The influence of the method of using electrochemically  treated water is estimated at 4.12‐10.24%, but regarding net assimilation the significance of this factor is not statistically proven. The highest estimates of linear  growth – 2.21 m, maximum leaf area – 43.4 thousand m2/ha, accumulated biomass  – 13.39 t/ha, photosynthetic potential – 3617 thousand m2 days/ha and tomato  biological yield – 140.0 t/ha, obtained by the combined use of a catholyte for vegetation and fertilizer irrigation with an electrochemically initiated shift of the redox  potential (‐500) mV.   

Conclusion. The studies have proved the statistical significance of the biometric  response of tomato plants to the use of water with electrochemically altered redox  potential for vegetation and fertilizer irrigation.   

On the evolution of carry-over effects

The environment experienced early in life often affects the traits that are developed after an individual has transitioned into new life stages and environments. Because the phenotypes induced by earlier environments are then screened by later ones, these 'carry-over effects' influence fitness outcomes across the entire life cycle. While the last two decades have witnessed an explosion of studies documenting the occurrence of carry-over effects, little attention has been given to how they adapt and diversify. To aid future research in this area, we present a framework for the evolution of carry-over effects. Carry-over effects can evolve in two ways. First, the expression of traits later in life may become more or less dependent on the developmental processes of earlier stages (e.g., 'adaptive decoupling'). Genetic correlations between life stages then either strengthen or weaken. Alternatively, those influential developmental processes that begin early in life may become more or less sensitive to that earlier environment. Here, plasticity changes in all the traits that share those developmental pathways across the whole life cycle. Adaptive evolution of a carry-over effect is governed by selection on the induced phenotypes in the later stage, and also by selection on any developmentally linked traits in the earlier life stage. When these selective pressures conflict, the evolution of the carry-over effect will be biased towards maximizing performance in the life stage with stronger selection. Because life stages often contribute unequally to total fitness, the strength of selection in any one stage depends on: (a) the relationship between the traits and the stage-specific fitness components (e.g., juvenile survival, adult mating success), and (b) the reproductive value of the life stage. Considering the evolution of carry-over effects reveals several intriguing features of the evolution of life histories and phenotypic plasticity more generally. For instance, carry-over effects that manifest as maladaptive plasticity in one life stage may represent an adaptive strategy for maximizing fitness in stages with stronger selection. Additionally, adaptation to novel environments encountered early in the life cycle may be faster in the presence of carry-over effects that influence sexually selected traits.

np2 QTL: networking phenotypic plasticity quantitative trait loci across heterogeneous environments

Despite its critical importance to our understanding of plant growth and adaptation, the question of how environment-induced plastic response is affected genetically remains elusive. Previous studies have shown that the reaction norm of an organism across environmental index obeys the allometrical scaling law of part-whole relationships. The implementation of this phenomenon into functional mapping can characterize how quantitative trait loci (QTLs) modulate the phenotypic plasticity of complex traits to heterogeneous environments. Here, we assemble functional mapping and allometry theory through Lokta-Volterra ordinary differential equations (LVODE) into an R-based computing platform, np² QTL, aimed to map and visualize phenotypic plasticity QTLs. Based on LVODE parameters, np² QTL constructs a bidirectional, signed and weighted network of QTL-QTL epistasis, whose emergent properties reflect the ecological mechanisms for genotype-environment interactions over any range of environmental change. The utility of np² QTL was validated by comprehending the genetic architecture of phenotypic plasticity via the reanalysis of published plant height data involving 3502 recombinant inbred lines of maize planted in multiple discrete environments. np² QTL also provides a tool for constructing a predictive model of phenotypic responses in extreme environments relative to the median environment.

Do Covariances Between Maternal Behavior and Embryonic Physiology Drive Sex-Ratio Evolution Under Environmental Sex Determination?

Fisherian sex-ratio theory predicts sexual species should have a balanced primary sex ratio. However, organisms with environmental sex determination (ESD) are particularly vulnerable to experiencing skewed sex ratios when environmental conditions vary. Theoretical work has modeled sex-ratio dynamics for animals with ESD with regard to 2 traits predicted to be responsive to sex-ratio selection: 1) maternal oviposition behavior and 2) sensitivity of embryonic sex determination to environmental conditions, and much research has since focused on how these traits influence offspring sex ratios. However, relatively few studies have provided estimates of univariate quantitative genetic parameters for these 2 traits, and the existence of phenotypic or genetic covariances among these traits has not been assessed. Here, we leverage studies on 3 species of reptiles (2 turtle species and a lizard) with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) to assess phenotypic covariances between measures of maternal oviposition behavior and thermal sensitivity of the sex-determining pathway. These studies quantified maternal behaviors that relate to nest temperature and sex ratio of offspring incubated under controlled conditions. A positive covariance between these traits would enhance the efficiency of sex-ratio selection when primary sex ratio is unbalanced. However, we detected no such covariance between measures of these categories of traits in the 3 study species. These results suggest that maternal oviposition behavior and thermal sensitivity of sex determination in embryos might evolve independently. Such information is critical to understand how animals with TSD will respond to rapidly changing environments that induce sex-ratio selection.

Adaptive phenotypic plasticity for life-history and less fitness-related traits

Organisms are faced with variable environments and one of the most common solutions to cope with such variability is phenotypic plasticity, a modification of the phenotype to the environment. These modifications are commonly modelled in evolutionary theories as adaptive, influencing ecological and evolutionary processes. If plasticity is adaptive, we would predict that the closer to fitness a trait is, the less plastic it would be. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a meta-analysis of 213 studies and measured the plasticity of each reported trait as a coefficient of variation. Traits were categorized as closer to fitness-life-history traits including reproduction and survival related traits, and farther from fitness-non-life-history traits including traits related to development, metabolism and physiology, morphology and behaviour. Our results showed, unexpectedly, that although traits differed in their amounts of plasticity, trait plasticity was not related to its proximity to fitness. These findings were independent of taxonomic groups or environmental types assessed. We caution against general expectations that plasticity is adaptive, as assumed by many models of its evolution. More studies are needed that test the adaptive nature of plasticity, and additional theoretical explorations on adaptive and non-adaptive plasticity are encouraged.

Experimental evolution of phytoplankton fatty acid thermal reaction norms

Temperature effects on the fatty acid (FA) profiles of phytoplankton, major primary producers in the ocean, have been widely studied due to their importance as industrial feedstocks and to their indispensable role as global producers of long-chain, polyunsaturated FA (PUFA), including omega-3 (ω3) FA required by organisms at higher trophic levels. The latter is of global ecological concern for marine food webs, as some evidence suggests an ongoing decline in global marine-derived ω3 FA due to both a global decline in phytoplankton abundance and to a physiological reduction in ω3 production by phytoplankton as temperatures rise. Here, we examined both short-term (physiological) and long-term (evolutionary) responses of FA profiles to temperature by comparing FA thermal reaction norms of the marine diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana after ~500 generations (ca. 2.5 years) of experimental evolution at low (16°C) and high (31°C) temperatures. We showed that thermal reaction norms for some key FA classes evolved rapidly in response to temperature selection, often in ways contrary to our predictions based on prior research. Notably, 31°C-selected populations showed higher PUFA percentages (including ω3 FA) than 16°C-selected populations at the highest assay temperature (31°C, above T. pseudonana's optimum temperature for population growth), suggesting that high-temperature selection led to an evolved ability to sustain high PUFA production at high temperatures. Rapid evolution may therefore mitigate some of the decline in global phytoplankton-derived ω3 FA production predicted by recent studies. Beyond its implications for marine food webs, knowledge of the effects of temperature on fatty acid profiles is of fundamental importance to our understanding of the mechanistic causes and consequences of thermal adaptation.

How to analyse plant phenotypic plasticity in response to a changing climate

Contents Summary 1235 I. Introduction 1235 II. The many shapes of phenotypic plasticity 1236 III. Random regression mixed model framework 1237 IV. Conclusions 1240 Acknowledgements 1240 References 1240 SUMMARY: Plant biology is experiencing a renewed interest in the mechanistic underpinnings and evolution of phenotypic plasticity that calls for a re-evaluation of how we analyse phenotypic responses to a rapidly changing climate. We suggest that dissecting plant plasticity in response to increasing temperature needs an approach that can represent plasticity over multiple environments, and considers both population-level responses and the variation between genotypes in their response. Here, we outline how a random regression mixed model framework can be applied to plastic traits that show linear or nonlinear responses to temperature. Random regressions provide a powerful and efficient means of characterising plasticity and its variation. Although they have been used widely in other fields, they have only recently been implemented in plant evolutionary ecology. We outline their structure and provide an example tutorial of their implementation.

Sparse evidence for selection on phenotypic plasticity in response to temperature

Phenotypic plasticity is frequently assumed to be an adaptive mechanism by which organisms cope with rapid changes in their environment, such as shifts in temperature regimes owing to climate change. However, despite this adaptive assumption, the nature of selection on plasticity within populations is still poorly documented. Here, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of estimates of selection on thermal plasticity. Although there is a large literature on thermal plasticity, we found very few studies that estimated coefficients of selection on measures of plasticity. Those that did do not provide strong support for selection on plasticity, with the majority of estimates of directional selection on plasticity being weak and non-significant, and no evidence for selection on plasticity overall. Although further estimates are clearly needed before general conclusions can be drawn, at present there is not clear empirical support for any assumption that plasticity in response to temperature is under selection. We present a multivariate mixed model approach for robust estimation of selection on plasticity and demonstrate how it can be implemented. Finally, we highlight the need to consider the environments, traits and conditions under which plasticity is (or is not) likely to be under selection, if we are to understand phenotypic responses to rapid environmental change. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.

Plasticity-led evolution: evaluating the key prediction of frequency-dependent adaptation

Plasticity-led evolution occurs when a change in the environment triggers a change in phenotype via phenotypic plasticity, and this pre-existing plasticity is subsequently refined by selection into an adaptive phenotype. A critical, but largely untested prediction of plasticity-led evolution (and evolution by natural selection generally) is that the rate and magnitude of evolutionary change should be positively associated with a phenotype's frequency of expression in a population. Essentially, the more often a phenotype is expressed and exposed to selection, the greater its opportunity for adaptive refinement. We tested this prediction by competing against each other spadefoot toad tadpoles from different natural populations that vary in how frequently they express a novel, environmentally induced carnivore ecomorph. As expected, laboratory-reared tadpoles whose parents were derived from populations that express the carnivore ecomorph more frequently were superior competitors for the resource for which this ecomorph is specialized-fairy shrimp. These tadpoles were better at using this resource both because they were more efficient at capturing and consuming shrimp and because they produced more exaggerated carnivore traits. Moreover, they exhibited these more carnivore-like features even without experiencing the inducing cue, suggesting that this ecomorph has undergone an extreme form of plasticity-led evolution-genetic assimilation. Thus, our findings provide evidence that the frequency of trait expression drives the magnitude of adaptive refinement, thereby validating a key prediction of plasticity-led evolution specifically and adaptive evolution generally.

Phenological mismatch drives selection on elevation, but not on slope, of breeding time plasticity in a wild songbird

Phenotypic plasticity is an important mechanism for populations to respond to fluctuating environments, yet may be insufficient to adapt to a directionally changing environment. To study whether plasticity can evolve under current climate change, we quantified selection and genetic variation in both the elevation (RNE ) and slope (RNS ) of the breeding time reaction norm in a long-term (1973-2016) study population of great tits (Parus major). The optimal RNE (the caterpillar biomass peak date regressed against the temperature used as cue by great tits) changed over time, whereas the optimal RNS did not. Concordantly, we found strong directional selection on RNE , but not RNS , of egg-laying date in the second third of the study period; this selection subsequently waned, potentially due to increased between-year variability in optimal laying dates. We found individual and additive genetic variation in RNE but, contrary to previous studies on our population, not in RNS . The predicted and observed evolutionary change in RNE was, however, marginal, due to low heritability and the sex limitation of laying date. We conclude that adaptation to climate change can only occur via micro-evolution of RNE, but this will necessarily be slow and potentially hampered by increased variability in phenotypic optima.