Young Age and Male Sex Are Predictors of Large-Volume Central Neck Lymph Node Metastasis in Clinical N0 Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinomas

Validation of Diagnostic Utility of Washout CYFRA 21-1 in Lymph Node Metastasis of Thyroid Cancer

PURPOSE

Traditional methods, fine-needle aspiration cytology (FNAC), and washout thyroglobulin (Tg) do not always provide sufficient accuracy for diagnosing lymph node (LN) metastasis in thyroid cancer. This study aimed to validate the diagnostic performance of washout cytokeratin fragment 21-1 (CYFRA 21-1) as a complementary biomarker for diagnosing metastatic LN in thyroid cancer and to explore its relationship with molecular analysis and distant metastasis.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

In this retrospective cohort study involving 230 LN in 224 patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma, FNAC, washout Tg, and washout CYFRA 21-1 levels were measured in suspicious LN. The final LN outcomes were confirmed by surgical histology.

RESULTS

Among the 230 LN, 145 (63.0%) were benign and 85 (37.0%) were metastatic. The optimal cutoff value for washout CYFRA 21-1 was established at 1.12 ng/mL (AUC, 0.959; 95% confidence interval, 0.936-0.982) with sensitivity of 93.4% and specificity of 97.8%. The cutoff value for washout Tg was 12.61 ng/mL (AUC, 0.832; 95% confidence interval, 0.772-0.892). The diagnostic performance of CYFRA 21-1 remained consistent across the preoperative (1.14 ng/mL) and postoperative assessment (1.10 ng/mL). The combination of FNAC and washout CYFRA 21-1 showed higher sensitivity (92.5%), specificity (95.9%), negative predictive value (93.7%), and diagnostic accuracy (95.1%) than the combination of FNAC and washout Tg. The washout CYFRA 21-1 level was associated with TERT mutations (OR, 3.35; P < 0.001), LN metastasis (OR, 5.43; P = 0.019), and distant metastasis (OR, 4.27; P = 0.019).

CONCLUSIONS

Incorporating washout CYFRA 21-1 into the diagnostic process improves the accuracy of metastatic LN detection in thyroid cancer.

What Features Predict Poorer Outcomes in Micropapillary Thyroid Carcinoma? A Retrospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

Micropapillary thyroid carcinoma (MPTC), a variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma sized ≤10 mm, is increasingly detected due to advanced ultrasound. This study aimed to describe characteristics and risk assessment of patients with MPTC to predict outcomes and guide initial management.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study (June 1980 to September 2023) assessed patients with MPTC using 2015 American Thyroid Association guidelines for risk stratification and determination of response to treatment. Outcomes ranged from excellent to structural incomplete responses.

RESULTS

Among 208 patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma with a primary tumor focus ≤10 mm, 68.8% were low risk, 29.3% intermediate risk, and 1.9% high risk. Higher risk was linked to larger tumor size (≥7 mm) (odds ratio [OR], 3.196; P value = .001) and multifocality (OR, 2.431; P value = .004). Age (OR, 0.973; P value = .048) and background Hashimoto thyroiditis (OR, 0.439; P value = .014) were found as protective factors. Excellent response to therapy was observed in 48.4% of patients, whereas structural and biochemical incomplete responses were found to be 11.2% and 7.5%. Recurrence was detected in 14 (8.18%) patients.

CONCLUSION

MPTC generally has a good prognosis and responds well to the treatment. Larger tumors (≥7 mm), younger age (<40 years), multifocality, and absence of Hashimoto thyroiditis correlate with a higher American Thyroid Association risk and poorer outcomes.

Radiofrequency Ablation of Low-Risk Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma: A Retrospective Cohort Study Including Patients with More than 10 Years of Follow-up

Background: The longest reported follow-up for thermal ablation of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) is 5 years. We evaluated the long-term efficacy and safety of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) in patients with low-risk PTMC with clinical follow-up of more than 10 years. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we included patients with low-risk PTMC who had more than 10 years of follow-up after ultrasound (US)-guided RFA (performed between May 2008 and December 2013). Sixty-five consecutive patients with 71 low-risk PTMCs who were unsuitable for surgery or declined surgery were included. Before RFA, all patients underwent US and thyroid computerized tomography. Repeat RFA for staged ablation was performed when the first RFA did not secure sufficient safety margins because of the tumor closely abutting the recurrent laryngeal nerve. Follow-up US imaging was performed at 1 week, 3 months, 6 months, every 6 months until 2 years, and then annually afterward. Primary outcomes were the respective cumulative rates of disease progression (defined by local tumor progression, lymph node, or distant metastasis), newly developed thyroid cancer, and conversion surgery. Secondary outcomes were serial volume reduction rate (VRR), complete disappearance rate of ablated PTMC, and adverse events associated with procedures. Results: Of 65 patients included in the study, 60 had unifocal and 5 had multifocal PTMCs. The mean number of RFA sessions per tumor was 1.2, and the median follow-up duration was 151 months (interquartile ranges, 131-157). Twenty percent (13/65) of patients required repeat RFA. There were no cases of disease progression. Five patients (5/65, 7.7%) developed a new papillary thyroid cancer (four treated with RFA and one with lobectomy). At 24 months, the mean VRR was 100%, and this was maintained throughout the final follow-up. The complete tumor disappearance rates after one or more RFA treatments were 40.8% (29/71), 74.6% (53/71), and 100% (71/71) at 6, 12, and 24 months, respectively. One major (subclinical hypothyroidism) and three minor adverse events occurred. Conclusions: In our experience, RFA of low-risk PTMC is effective and safe. During more than 10 years of follow-up, we observed no incident local tumor progression nor metastases, but 7.7% of patients developed a new papillary thyroid cancer.

Standardized Ultrasound Evaluation for Active Surveillance of Low-Risk Thyroid Microcarcinoma in Adults: 2024 Korean Society of Thyroid Radiology Consensus Statement

Active surveillance (AS) has been widely adopted as an alternative to immediate surgery owing to the indolent nature and favorable outcomes of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC). AS is generally recommended for tumors measuring ≤1 cm without aggressive cytological subtypes, risk of gross extrathyroidal extension (ETE), lymph node metastasis (LNM), or distant metastasis. AS requires careful patient selection based on various patient and tumor characteristics, and ultrasound (US) findings. Moreover, during AS, regular US is performed to monitor any signs of tumor progression, including tumor growth, new US features of potential gross ETE, and LNM. Therefore, appropriate imaging-based assessment plays a crucial role in determining whether AS or surgery should be pursued. However, detailed recommendations concerning US evaluation are currently insufficient, necessitating the formulation of this guideline. The Korean Society of Thyroid Radiology has developed a consensus statement for low-risk PTMC, covering US assessment methods when considering AS as a management option and conducting follow-up imaging tests during AS. This guideline aims to provide optimal scientific evidence and expert opinion consensus regarding a standardized US-based assessment protocol for low-risk PTMC.

Standardized Ultrasound Evaluation for Active Surveillance of Low-Risk Thyroid Microcarcinoma in Adults: 2024 Korean Society of Thyroid Radiology Consensus Statement

Active surveillance (AS) has been widely adopted as an alternative to immediate surgery owing to the indolent nature and favorable outcomes of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC). AS is generally recommended for tumors measuring ≤1 cm without aggressive cytological subtypes, risk of gross extrathyroidal extension (ETE), lymph node metastasis (LNM), or distant metastasis. AS requires careful patient selection based on various patient and tumor characteristics, and ultrasound (US) findings. Moreover, during AS, regular US is performed to monitor any signs of tumor progression, including tumor growth, new US features of potential gross ETE, and LNM. Therefore, appropriate imaging-based assessment plays a crucial role in determining whether AS or surgery should be pursued. However, detailed recommendations concerning US evaluation are currently insufficient, necessitating the formulation of this guideline. The Korean Society of Thyroid Radiology has developed a consensus statement for low-risk PTMC, covering US assessment methods when considering AS as a management option and conducting follow-up imaging tests during AS. This guideline aims to provide optimal scientific evidence and expert opinion consensus regarding a standardized US-based assessment protocol for low-risk PTMC.

Three-year follow-up results of radiofrequency ablation for low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinomas: Systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Confidence in long-term treatment results of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) is required in comparison with surgery and active surveillance (AS). The objective of this meta-analysis is to report more than three years of follow-up results of radiofrequency ablation for PTMCs.

METHODS

Ovid PUBMED, COCHRANE, and EMBASE databases were searched through Nov 19, 2023, for studies reporting outcomes in patients with PTMC treated with radiofrequency ablation and followed up for more than 3 years. The standard mean difference of the tumor volume before and after therapy, tumor recurrence, lymph node (LN) metastasis, distant metastasis, complications, and the pooled volume reduction rates (VRRs) at 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 36, and 48 months after radiofrequency ablation were assessed. Data were extracted and methodological quality was assessed independently by two radiologists according to the PRISMA guidelines.

RESULTS

Eight studies, involving 2131 patients, met the inclusion criteria through database searches. The overall VRR was 99.81 % (95 % CI: 99.68, 99.95) in the last follow-up. During a mean pooled follow-up of 46.59 months, 69 patients experienced local PTMC recurrence, with 8 cases within the ablation area. Additionally, 44 patients were diagnosed with newly discovered PTMC, and 17 patients exhibited lymph node metastases. Among the patients with PTMC recurrence, 3 were under active surveillance while 59 underwent additional RFA. The pooled mean complication rate was 2.80 %, with no instances of life-threatening or delayed complications.

CONCLUSIONS

Radiofrequency ablation proves to be an effective local tumor control method for low-risk PTMC patients, resulting in clinically significant and enduring volume reduction. The rate of regrowth and retreatment requirement post-RFA was notably lower, positioning RFA as a compelling alternative to existing treatment options.

Predictive Values of Clinical Features and Multimodal Ultrasound for Central Lymph Node Metastases in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), the predominant pathological type among thyroid malignancies, is responsible for the sharp increase in thyroid cancer. Although PTC is an indolent tumor with good prognosis, 60-70% of patients still have early cervical lymph node metastasis, typically in the central compartment. Whether there is central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) or not directly affects the formulation of preoperative surgical procedures, given that such metastases have been tied to compromised overall survival and local recurrence. However, detecting CLNM before operation can be challenging due to the limited sensitivity of preoperative approaches. Prophylactic central lymph node dissection (PCLND) in the absence of clinical evidence of CLNM poses additional surgical risks. This study aims to provide a comprehensive review of the risk factors related to CLNM in PTC patients. A key focus is on utilizing multimodal ultrasound (US) for accurate prognosis of preoperative CLNM and to highlight the distinctive role of US-based characteristics for predicting CLNM.

Development and validation of a clinical predictive model for high-volume lymph node metastasis of papillary thyroid carcinoma

The central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) status in the cervical region serves as a pivotal determinant for the extent of surgical intervention and prognosis in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). This paper seeks to devise and validate a predictive model based on clinical parameters for the early anticipation of high-volume CLNM (hv-CLNM, > 5 nodes) in high-risk patients. A retrospective analysis of the pathological and clinical data of patients with PTC who underwent surgical treatment at Medical Centers A and B was conducted. The data from Center A was randomly divided into training and validation sets in an 8:2 ratio, with those from Center B serving as the test set. Multifactor logistic regression was harnessed in the training set to select variables and construct a predictive model. The generalization ability of the model was assessed in the validation and test sets. The model was evaluated through the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) to predict the efficiency of hv-CLNM. The goodness of fit of the model was examined via the Brier verification technique. The incidence of hv-CLNM in 5897 PTC patients attained 4.8%. The occurrence rates in males and females were 9.4% (128/1365) and 3.4% (156/4532), respectively. Multifactor logistic regression unraveled male gender (OR = 2.17, p < .001), multifocality (OR = 4.06, p < .001), and lesion size (OR = 1.08 per increase of 1 mm, p < .001) as risk factors, while age emerged as a protective factor (OR = 0.95 per an increase of 1 year, p < .001). The model constructed with four predictive variables within the training set exhibited an AUC of 0.847 ([95%CI] 0.815-0.878). In the validation and test sets, the AUCs were 0.831 (0.783-0.879) and 0.845 (0.789-0.901), respectively, with Brier scores of 0.037, 0.041, and 0.056. Subgroup analysis unveiled AUCs for the prediction model in PTC lesion size groups (≤ 10 mm and > 10 mm) as 0.803 (0.757-0.85) and 0.747 (0.709-0.785), age groups (≤ 31 years and > 31 years) as 0.778 (0.720-0.881) and 0.837 (0.806-0.867), multifocal and solitary cases as 0.803 (0.767-0.838) and 0.809 (0.769-0.849), and Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT) and non-HT cases as 0.845 (0.793-0.897) and 0.845 (0.819-0.871). Male gender, multifocality, and larger lesion size are risk factors for hv-CLNM in PTC patients, whereas age serves as a protective factor. The clinical predictive model developed in this research facilitates the early identification of high-risk patients for hv-CLNM, thereby assisting physicians in more efficacious risk stratification management for PTC patients.

BRAFV600E mutation does not predict lymph node metastases and recurrence in Chinese papillary thyroid microcarcinoma patients

OBJECT

Previous studies suggest BRAFV600E mutation is a marker for poor prognosis in papillary thyroid cancer, however, its ability to further risk stratify papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) remains controversial. We aimed to explore the association between BRAFV600E mutation and the clinicopathological features and recurrence in Chinese PTMC patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed 2094 PTMC patients who underwent surgery and had a valid BRAFV600E mutation test result. Among them, 1292 patients had complete follow-up data. The mutation incidence was determined. Moreover, the clinicopathological characteristics, disease-free survival (DFS), and response to therapy distribution were compared between the mutation and non-mutation groups.

RESULTS

BRAFV600E mutation was observed in 90.6 % of all patients and 89.2 % of patients with complete follow-up data. No significant difference was observed in lymph node metastases (LNM) number categories between the mutation and non-mutation groups among all patients (P = 0.329) and 1292 patients (P = 0.408). Neither the 3-year DFS (97.9 % vs. 98.0 %, P = 0.832) nor the response to therapy distribution (P > 0.05) indicated a significant difference between the mutation and non-mutation groups. The 3-year DFS differs among patients having different LNM number categories (99.8 % vs. 98.5 % vs. 77.3 %, P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that high-volume (over 5) LNM (Total thyroidectomy (TT): OR = 4.000, 95 % CI 2.390-6.694, P < 0.001; Unilateral thyroidectomy (UT): OR = 4.183, 95 % CI 1.565-11.190, P = 0.004), rather than BRAFV600E mutation (P > 0.05), was an independent risk factor of response to therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggested that BRAFV600E mutation could not accurately predict LNM or the recurrence of Chinese PTMC patients. Moreover, high-volume LNM is significantly associated with PTMC prognosis.

Clinical and molecular features of progressive papillary thyroid microcarcinoma

In recent decades, the prevalence of thyroid cancer has risen substantially, with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) constituting over 50% of cases. Although most PTMCs exhibit indolent growth and a favorable prognosis, some present an increased risk of recurrence and an unfavorable prognosis due to high-risk characteristics such as lymph node metastasis, extrathyroidal extension, and distant metastasis. The early identification of clinically progressing PTMC remains elusive. In this review, the authors summarize findings from PTMC progression-related literature, highlighting that factors such as larger tumor size, cervical lymph node metastasis, extrathyroidal extension, younger age, higher preoperative serum thyroid-stimulating hormone levels, family history, and obesity positively correlate with PTMC progression. The role of multifocality in promoting PTMC progression; however, remains contentious. Furthermore, recent studies have shed light on the impact of mutations, such as BRAF and TERT mutations, on PTMC progression. Researchers have identified several mRNAs, noncoding RNAs, and proteins associated with various features of PTMC progression. Some studies propose that peripheral and tumor tissue-infiltrating immune cells could serve as biomarkers for the clinical progression of PTMC. Collectively, these clinical and molecular features offer a rationale for the early detection and the development of precision theranostic strategies of clinically progressive PTMC.

Active Surveillance for Low-Risk Thyroid Cancers: A Review of Current Practice Guidelines

The indolent nature and favorable outcomes associated with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma have prompted numerous prospective studies on active surveillance (AS) and its adoption as an alternative to immediate surgery in managing low-risk thyroid cancer. This article reviews the current status of AS, as outlined in various international practice guidelines. AS is typically recommended for tumors that measure 1 cm or less in diameter and do not exhibit aggressive subtypes on cytology, extrathyroidal extension, lymph node metastasis, or distant metastasis. To determine the most appropriate candidates for AS, factors such as tumor size, location, multiplicity, and ultrasound findings are considered, along with patient characteristics like medical condition, age, and family history. Moreover, shared decision-making, which includes patient-reported outcomes such as quality of life and cost-effectiveness, is essential. During AS, patients undergo regular ultrasound examinations to monitor for signs of disease progression, including tumor growth, extrathyroidal extension, or lymph node metastasis. In conclusion, while AS is a feasible and reliable approach for managing lowrisk thyroid cancer, it requires careful patient selection, effective communication for shared decision-making, standardized follow-up protocols, and a clear definition of disease progression.

A nomogram based on multimodal ultrasound and clinical features for the prediction of central lymph node metastasis in unifocal papillary thyroid carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

To build a predictive model for central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in unifocal papillary thyroid carcinoma (UPTC) using a combination of clinical features and multimodal ultrasound (MUS).

METHODS

This retrospective study, included 390 UPTC patients who underwent MUS between January 2017 and October 2022 and were divided into a training cohort (n = 300) and a validation cohort (n = 90) based on a cut-off date of June 2022. Independent indicators for constructing the predictive nomogram models were identified using multivariate regression analysis. The diagnostic yield of the 3 predictive models was also assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Both clinical factors (age, diameter) and MUS findings (microcalcification, virtual touch imaging score, maximal value of virtual touch tissue imaging and quantification) were significantly associated with the presence of CLNM in the training cohort (all P < .05). A predictive model (MUS + Clin), incorporating both clinical and MUS characteristics, demonstrated favourable diagnostic accuracy in both the training cohort (AUC = 0.80) and the validation cohort (AUC = 0.77). The MUS + Clin model exhibited superior predictive performance in terms of AUCs over the other models (training cohort 0.80 vs 0.72, validation cohort 0.77 vs 0.65, P < .01). In the validation cohort, the MUS + Clin model exhibited higher sensitivity compared to the CLNM model for ultrasound diagnosis (81.2% vs 21.6%, P < .001), while maintaining comparable specificity to the Clin model alone (62.3% vs 47.2%, P = .06). The MUS + Clin model demonstrated good calibration and clinical utility across both cohorts.

CONCLUSION

Our nomogram combining non-invasive features, including MUS and clinical characteristics, could be a reliable preoperative tool to predict CLNM treatment of UPTC.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

Our study established a nomogram based on MUS and clinical features for predicting CLNM in UPTC, facilitating informed preoperative clinical management and diagnosis.

A prediction model for identifying high-risk lymph node metastasis in clinical low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma

BACKGROUND

The presence of high-volume lymph node metastasis (LNM) and extranodal extension (ENE) greatly increases the risk of recurrence in patients with low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC). The goal of this research was to analyze the factors that contribute to high-risk lymph node metastasis in patients with low-risk PTMC.

METHODS

We analyzed the records of 7344 patients who were diagnosed with low-risk PTMC and treated at our center from January 2013 to June 2018.LNM with a high volume or ENE was classified as high-risk lymph node metastasis (hr-LNM). A logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify the risk factors associated with hr-LNM. A nomogram was created and verified using risk factors obtained from LASSO regression analysis, to predict the likelihood of hr-LNM.

RESULTS

The rate of hr-LNM was 6.5%. LASSO regression revealed six variables that independently contribute to hr-LNM: sex, age, tumor size, tumor location, Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT), and microscopic capsular invasion. A predictive nomogram was developed by integrating these risk factors, demonstrating its excellent performance. Upon analyzing the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for predicting hr-LNM, it was observed that the area under the curve (AUC) had a value of 0.745 and 0.730 in the training and testing groups showed strong agreement, affirming great reliability.

CONCLUSION

Sex, age, tumor size, tumor location, HT, and microscopic capsular invasion were determined to be key factors associated with hr-LNM in low-risk PTMC. Utilizing these factors, a nomogram was developed to evaluate the risk of hr-LNM in patients with low-risk PTMC.

Ultrasonic Feature Prediction of Large-Number Central Lymph Node Metastasis in Clinically Node-Negative Solitary Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to investigate the preoperative prediction of large-number central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in single thyroid papillary carcinoma (PTC) with negative clinical lymph nodes.

METHODS

A total of 634 patients with clinically lymph node-negative single PTC who underwent thyroidectomy and central lymph node dissection at the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University and the Nanchong Central Hospital between September 2018 and September 2021 were analyzed retrospectively. According to the CLNM status, the patients were divided into two groups: small-number (≤5 metastatic lymph nodes) and large-number (>5 metastatic lymph nodes). Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine the independent predictors of large-number CLNM. Simultaneously, a nomogram based on risk factors was established to predict large-number CLNM.

RESULTS

The incidence of large-number CLNM was 7.7%. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that age, tumor size, and calcification were independent risk factors for predicting large-number CLNM. The combination of the three independent predictors achieved an AUC of 0.806. Based on the identified risk factors that can predict large-number CLNM, a nomogram was developed. The analysis of the calibration map showed that the nomogram had good performance and clinical application.

CONCLUSION

In patients with single PTC with negative clinical lymph nodes large-number CLNM is related to age, size, and calcification in patients with a single PTC with negative clinical lymph nodes. Surgeons and radiologists should pay more attention to patients with these risk factors. A nomogram can help guide the surgical decision for PTC.

US Predictors of Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma Progression at Active Surveillance

Background Active surveillance (AS) is an accepted strategy for patients with low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC). While previous studies have evaluated the prognostic value of US features, results have been inconsistent. Purpose To determine if US features can help predict tumor progression in patients with low-risk PTMC undergoing AS. Materials and Methods This prospective study enrolled 1177 participants with PTMC from three hospitals between June 2016 and January 2021. Participants were self-assigned to either immediate surgery or AS, and those with two or more US examinations in the absence of surgery were included in the analysis. A χ2 test was used to compare estimated tumor progression rate at 4 years between participants stratified according to US features. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to assess the association of clinical and US features with overall tumor progression and specific progression criteria. Results Among 699 participants included in the analysis, 68 (mean age, 49 years ± 12 [SD]; 40 female participants) showed tumor progression (median follow-up, 41.4 months ± 16 [SD]). Tumor progression was associated with the US features of diffuse thyroid disease (DTD) (hazard ratio [HR], 2.3 [95% CI: 1.4, 3.7]; P = .001) and intratumoral vascularity (HR, 1.7 [95% CI: 1.0, 3.0]; P = .04) and the participant characteristics of male sex (HR, 2.8 [95% CI: 1.7, 4.6]; P < .001), age less than 30 years (HR, 2.9 [95% CI: 1.2, 6.8]; P = .01), and thyroid-stimulating hormone level of 7 µU/mL or higher (HR, 6.9 [95% CI: 2.7, 17.4]; P < .001). The risk of tumor progression was higher for participants with DTD (14%, P = .001) or intratumoral vascularity (14%, P = .02) than for participants without these features (6%). DTD and intratumoral vascularity were associated with tumor enlargement (HR, 2.7 [95% CI: 1.4, 5.1]; P = .002) and new lymph node metastasis (HR, 5.0 [95% CI: 1.3, 19.4]; P = .02), respectively. Conclusion DTD and intratumoral vascularity were associated with an increased risk of tumor progression in participants with PTMC undergoing AS. Clinical trial registration no. NCT02938702 © RSNA, 2023 Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Reuter and the review "International Expert Consensus on US Lexicon for Thyroid Nodules" by Durante et al in this issue.

Survival outcomes of low-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma at different risk levels: a corollary for active surveillance

Background

This study aims to compare the outcomes of active surveillance (AS) in low-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients with different tumor sizes and lymph node metastasis status, in order to establish appropriate management strategies. By analyzing these results, this study provides valuable insights for the effective management of such patients, addressing the issues and challenges associated with AS in practical clinical practice.

Methods

The study utilized the SEER database supported by the National Cancer Institute of the United States, extracting data of PTC diagnosed between 2000 and 2015. Statistical analyses were conducted using inverse probability weighting (IPTW) and propensity score matching (PSM), including Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox regression models, to evaluate the impact of different tumor sizes and lymph node metastasis status on thyroid cancer-specific survival (TCSS).

Results

A total of 57,000 PTC patients were included, with most covariates having standardized mean differences below 10% after IPTW and PSM adjustments. The TCSS of PTC with a diameter smaller than 13mm is significantly better than that of tumors with a diameter larger than 13mm, regardless of the presence of lymph node metastasis. Among PTC cases with a diameter smaller than 13mm, the TCSS of patients is similar, regardless of the presence of lymph node metastasis. However, in PTC cases with a diameter larger than 13mm, the presence of lateral neck lymph node metastasis (N1b stage) significantly impacts the TCSS, although the absolute impact on TCSS rate is minimal.

Conclusion

The treatment strategy of AS is safe for patients with T1a stage papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC). However, for patients with T1b stage, if the tumor diameter exceeds 13mm or there is lymph node metastasis in the lateral neck region, the TCSS will be significantly affected. Nevertheless, the absolute impact on survival is relatively small.

Prevalence of Occult Central Lymph Node Metastasis by Tumor Size in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

While papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is associated with high occult central neck metastasis (CNM) rates, prophylactic central neck dissection (pCND) is controversial. This meta-analysis aims to look at the occult CNM rate according to tumor size.

METHODS

A literature search was conducted in PubMed from inception to April 2023. Inclusion criteria were primary studies that determined occult CNM rates in cN0 PTC by tumor size. Heterogeneity, influential case diagnostics, and proportion data were evaluated with Cochran's Q-test, Baujat plots and Forest plots, respectively.

RESULTS

Fifty-two studies were included in this meta-analysis. The findings demonstrated an occult CNM rate of 30.3% for tumors ≤ 5 mm, 32.7% for tumors ≤ 1 cm, 46.0% for tumors between 1 and 2 cm, 43.1% for tumors between 2 and 4 cm, and 61.2% for tumors > 4 cm. The heterogeneity of each study group was high, though no publication bias was noted. While there was a trend towards increased occult CNM rates with larger tumors, comparisons between different size cutoffs varied in significance.

CONCLUSION

This comprehensive review affirms that occult CNM is high and that an ipsilateral pCND can be justified in all PTC patients for accurate differentiation between Stage I and Stage II disease and its clinical implications.

Construction and validation of nomograms to reduce completion thyroidectomy by predicting lymph node metastasis in low-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma

CONTEXT

More than 5 central lymph nodes metastases (CLNM) or lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) indicates a higher risk of recurrence in low-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) and may lead to completion thyroidectomy (CTx) in patients initially undergoing lobectomy.

OBJECTIVE

To screen potentially high-risk patients from low-risk patients by using preoperative and intraoperative clinicopathological features to predict lymph node status.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 8301 PTC patients in Wuhan Union Hospital database (2009-2021) was performed according to the 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) and 2021 National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guidelines, respectively. Logistic regression and best subsets regression were used to identify risk factors. Nomograms were established and externally validated using the Differentiated Thyroid Cancer in China cohort.

RESULTS

More than 5 CLNM or LLNM was detected in 1648 (19.9%) patients. Two predictive models containing age, gender, maximum tumor size, free thyroxine (FT4) and palpable node (all p < 0.05) were established. The nomogram based on NCCN criteria showed better discriminative power and consistency with a specificity of 0.706 and a sensitivity of 0.725, and external validation indicated that 76% of potentially high-risk patients could achieve preoperative conversion of surgical strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

Models based on large cohorts with good predictive performance were constructed and validated. Preoperative low-risk (T1-2N0M0) patients with age younger than 40 years, male gender, large tumor size, low FT4 and palpable nodes may be at high risk of LLNM or more than 5 CLNM, and they should receive more aggressive initial therapy to reduce CTx.

Patient's age with papillary thyroid cancer: Is it a key factor for cervical lymph node metastasis?

BACKGROUND

Age is one of the important prognostic indicators of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). However, the distinct metastatic patterns and prognosis of age-related lymph node metastasis (LNM) are unclear. This study aims to investigate the impact of age on LNM.

METHODS

We conducted two independent cohort studies to assess age-nodal disease association using logistic regression analysis and a restricted cubic splines model. A multivariable Cox regression model was utilized to test the impact of nodal disease on cancer-specific survival (CSS) after age stratification.

RESULTS

For this study, we included 7572 and 36,793 patients with PTC in Xiangya and SEER cohorts, respectively. After adjustment, advanced age was linearly associated with decreasing risk of central LNM. Patients of age ≤18 years (OR = 4.41, P < 0.001) and 19-45 years (OR = 1.97, P = 0.002) had a higher risk of developing lateral LNM than patients of age >60 years in both cohorts. Furthermore, CSS is significantly reduced in N1b disease (P < 0.001), not N1a disease, regardless of age. The incidence of high-volume LNM (HV-LNM) was significantly higher in patients of age ≤18 years and 19-45 years than in those of age >60 years (P < 0.001), in both cohorts. In addition, CSS was compromised in patients with PTC of age 46-60 years (HR = 1.61, P = 0.022) and those of age >60 (HR = 1.40, P = 0.021) after developing HV-LNM.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient age is significantly associated with LNM and HV-LNM. Patients with N1b disease or patients with HV-LNM of age >45 years have significantly shorter CSS. Age can, thus, be a useful guide for determining treatment strategies in PTC.

Deep learning to predict cervical lymph node metastasis from intraoperative frozen section of tumour in papillary thyroid carcinoma: a multicentre diagnostic study

Background

Lymph node metastasis (LNM) assessment in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is of great value. This study aimed to develop a deep learning model applied to intraoperative frozen section for prediction of LNM in PTC patients.

Methods

We established a deep-learning model (ThyNet-LNM) with the multiple-instance learning framework to predict LNM using whole slide images (WSIs) from intraoperative frozen sections of PTC. Data for the development and validation of ThyNet-LNM were retrospectively derived from four hospitals from January 2018 to December 2021. The ThyNet-LNM was trained using 1987 WSIs from 1120 patients obtained at the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University. The ThyNet-LNM was then validated in the independent internal test set (479 WSIs from 280 patients) as well as three external test sets (1335 WSIs from 692 patients). The performance of ThyNet-LNM was further compared with preoperative ultrasound and computed tomography (CT).

Findings

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of ThyNet-LNM were 0.80 (95% CI 0.74-0.84), 0.81 (95% CI 0.77-0.86), 0.76 (95% CI 0.68-0.83), and 0.81 (95% CI 0.75-0.85) in internal test set and three external test sets, respectively. The AUCs of ThyNet-LNM were significantly higher than those of ultrasound and CT or their combination in all four test sets (all P < 0.01). Of 397 clinically node-negative (cN0) patients, the rate of unnecessary lymph node dissection decreased from 56.4% to 14.9% by ThyNet-LNM.

Interpretation

The ThyNet-LNM showed promising efficacy as a potential novel method in evaluating intraoperative LNM status, providing real-time guidance for decision. Furthermore, this led to a reduction of unnecessary lymph node dissection in cN0 patients.

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China, Guangzhou Science and Technology Project, and Guangxi Medical High-level Key Talents Training "139" Program.

Clinical and ultrasonic risk factors for high-volume central lymph node metastasis in cN0 papillary thyroid microcarcinoma: A retrospective study and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

Papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) comprises more than 50% of all newly detected cases of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). High-volume lymph node metastasis (involving >5 lymph nodes) (hv-LNM) is associated with PTMC recurrence. In half of the clinically node-negative (cN0) PTMC patients, central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) is pathologically present. However, clinical risk factors for high-volume CLNM (hv-CLNM) in cN0 PTMC have not been defined well. Therefore, we aimed to obtain evidence for hv-CLNM risk factors in cN0 PTMC.

DESIGN

Data on patients who visited our hospital between January 2020 and December 2021 were collected; a preoperative diagnosis of cN0 and a postoperative pathological confirmation of PTMC were obtained. After filtering by inclusion versus exclusion criteria, the obtained data (N = 2268) were included in the meta-analysis. Relevant studies published as of 10 April 2022, were identified from the Web of Science, PubMed, WANFANG, and CNKI databases. These eligible studies were included in the meta-analysis and the association between clinicopathological factors and hv-CLNM in cN0 PTMC was assessed. SPSS and MetaXL were used for statistical analyses.

RESULTS

The meta-analysis included 10 previous studies (11,734 patients) and 2268 patients enroled in our hospital for a total of 14,002 subjects. The results of which suggested that younger age (<40, odds ratio [OR] = 3.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.75-3.92, p < .001 or <45 odds ratio [OR] = 2.93, 95% CI = 2.31-3.72, p < .001), male sex (OR = 2.81, 95% CI = 2.25-3.52, p < .001), tumour size >5 mm (OR = 1.85, 95% CI = 1.39-2.47, p < .001), multifocality (OR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.56-2.26, p < .001), extrathyroidal extension (OR = 2.58, 95% CI = 2.02-3.30, p < .001), capsule invasion (OR = 2.02, 95% CI = 1.46-2.78, p < .001), microcalcification (OR = 3.25, 95% CI = 2.42-4.36, p < .001) and rich blood flow (OR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.21-2.25, p = .002) were the significant factors related to an elevated hv-CLNM risk in cN0 PTMC patients. Hashimoto thyroiditis (OR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.55-1.07, p = .114), irregular margin (versus regular margin, OR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.68-1.33, p = .787) and hypoechoic (versus nonhypoechoic, OR = 1.27, 95% CI = 0.84-1.92, p = .261) showed no significant association with hv-CLNM.

CONCLUSIONS

Younger age, tumour size >5 mm, males, extrathyroidal extension, multifocality, microcalcification, capsular invasion, and rich blood flow were the significant clinicopathological risk factors for hv-CLNM risk in cN0 PTMC patients. These predictors may compensate for the sensitivity of imaging diagnosis in the preoperative period, thus helping in the effective identification of PTMCs with an invasive phenotype.

Ultrasound-guided thermal ablation for papillary thyroid microcarcinoma: A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

Thyroidectomy is the first-line treatment for papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC), but often involves aggressive overtreatment. Thermal ablation (TA) has been gradually used for the treatment of recurrent PTMC. However, it is not recommended for the treatment of primary PTMC according to the Korean and Italian guidelines. Therefore, this systematic review aimed to analyse the indications, efficacy, and safety of TA in the treatment of PTMC.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

PATIENTS AND MEASUREMENTS

A search strategy was developed in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. A total of 27 articles were included in this study until January 2022.

RESULTS

According to current guidelines and studies, we divided the indications of TA for PTMC into six primary and three secondary indications. Laser ablation (LA) has the advantages of a small needle, accurate output energy and precision ablation, and it is safe to important organs around the lesion. The patients recover quickly after radiofrequency ablation (RFA), with no major complications, recurrence, or lymph node metastasis. The volume reduction rate after RFA was the highest, followed by microwave ablation and LA, and the improvement in patient quality of life after TA was significantly better than after thyroidectomy.

CONCLUSIONS

TA is an effective alternative method for surgery in the treatment of low-risk PTMC and has the advantages of being minimally invasive, economical, having less bleeding and having a high postoperative quality of life.

Nomogram for preoperative prediction of high-volume lymph node metastasis in the classical variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma

Introduction

The objective of our study was to construct a preoperative prediction nomogram for the classical variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma (CVPTC) patients with a solitary lesion based on demographic and ultrasonographic parameters that can quantify the individual probability of high-volume (>5) lymph node metastasis (HVLNM).

Materials and methods

In this study, a total of 626 patients with CVPTC from December 2017 to November 2022 were reviewed. Their demographic and ultrasonographic features at baseline were collected and analyzed using univariate and multivariate analyses. Significant factors after the multivariate analysis were incorporated into a nomogram for predicting HVLNM. A validation set from the last 6 months of the study period was conducted to evaluate the model performance.

Results

Male sex, tumor size >10 mm, extrathyroidal extension (ETE), and capsular contact >50% were independent risk factors for HVLNM, whereas middle and old age were significant protective factors. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.842 in the training and 0.875 in the validation set.

Conclusions

The preoperative nomogram can help tailor the management strategy to the individual patient. Additionally, more vigilant and aggressive measures may benefit patients at risk of HVLNM.

A LASSO-based model to predict central lymph node metastasis in preoperative patients with cN0 papillary thyroid cancer

Introduction

Central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) is common in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). Prophylactic central lymph node dissection (PCLND) in clinically negative central compartment lymph node (cN0) PTC patients is still controversial. How to predict CLNM before the operation is very important for surgical decision making.

Methods

In this article, we retrospectively enrolled 243 cN0 PTC patients and gathered data including clinical characteristics, ultrasound (US) characteristics, pathological results of fine-needle aspiration (FNA), thyroid function, eight gene mutations, and immunoenzymatic results. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analysis was used for data dimensionality reduction and feature analysis.

Results

According to the results, the important predictors of CLNM were identified. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to establish a new nomogram prediction model. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) curve were used to evaluate the performance of the new prediction model.

Discussion

The new nomogram prediction model was a reasonable and reliable model for predicting CLNM in cN0 PTC patients, but further validation is warranted.

A clinical and molecular pathology prediction model for central lymph node metastasis in cN0 papillary thyroid microcarcinoma

BACKGROUND

The frequency of thyroid cancer has rapidly increased in recent years globally. Thus, more papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) patients are being diagnosed, including clinical lymph node-negative (cN0) patients. Our study attempted to develop a prediction model for assessing the probability of central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in cN0 PTMC patients.

METHODS

A total of 595 patients from the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University (training cohort: 456 patients) and the Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University (verification cohort: 139 patients) who underwent thyroid surgery between January 2020 and May 2022 were enrolled in this study. Their clinical and molecular pathology data were analyzed with multivariate logistic regression to identify independent factors, and then we established a prediction model to assess the risk of CLNM in cN0 PTMC patients.

RESULTS

Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that sex, Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT), tumor size, extrathyroidal extension, TERT promoter mutations and NRAS mutation were independent factors of CLNM. The prediction model demonstrated good discrimination ability (C-index: 0.757 and 0.753 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively). The calibration curve of the model was near the optimum diagonal line, and decision curve analysis (DCA) showed a noticeably better benefit.

CONCLUSION

CLNM in cN0 PTMC patients is associated with male sex, tumor size, extrathyroidal extension, HT, TERT promoter mutations and NRAS mutation. The prediction model exhibits good discrimination, calibration and clinical usefulness. This model will help to assess CLNM risk and make clinical decisions in cN0 PTMC patients.

Evaluation of the role of prophylactic bilateral central neck lymph node dissection in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma: a case controlled study

Thyroid cancer is the most common malignancy in the endocrine system. Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is the most common differentiated thyroid cancer. There are considerable discrepancies regarding the role and extent of prophylactic central lymph node dissection (PCLND) for patients with PTC. Our primary goal was the evaluation of CLN involvement based on the tumor features and staging on the eight version of the American Joint Committee on Cancer and also the TNM method. Our secondary aim was to evaluate the features of the CLNs with tumoral features and also features associated with the development of transient hypoparathyroidism. This prospective case-controlled study was performed among PTC patients. Total thyroidectomy and bilateral dissection of the CLNs of the central compartment of the neck was performed, and samples were sent for pathological evaluation. CLN involvement, tumoral features and transient hypoparathyroidism were cross-evaluated and analyzed with SPSS version 26.0. In this study, out of 61 patients, 11 (18%) were male, the average age was 37.3 ± 13.7 years, based on AJCC staging, 53 (86.9%) were stage I and 8 (13.1%) were stage II, and based on TNM staging, 39 patients (66.1%) were T1, including 13 (22.0%) T1a and 26 (44.1%) T1b, 15 patients (25.4%) were T2, and five patients (8.5%) were T3. Based on permanent pathology evaluation, the majority of patients (n = 48; 78.7%) had CLN involvement. None of the preoperative and tumor features had a significant association with CLN involvement. 75% of stage I and 100% of stage two cases, while 76.9% of T1, 86.7% of T2, and 80.0% of T3 cases had CLN involvement. There was no significant association between the involvement of CLN and the AJCC staging (P = 0.184) or TNM staging (P = 0.875). The involved to dissected CLN ratio was significantly higher in stage II patients compared to stage I (72.5 vs. 34.8%; P = 0.006), and also with higher T staging (0.009). There was a statistically significant association between the larger CLN size and older patients' age, higher postoperative thyroglobulin levels, and smaller tumor size. Higher postoperative thyroglobulin level was significantly associated with larger tumors size and thyroid capsule invasion. Also, 26 (44.8%) of patients developed transient hypoparathyroidism, which was significantly associated with vascular invasion (P = 0.048), bilateral location of tumor (P = 0.048) or on the right side (0.005), and larger size of the tumor (P = 0.016). Tumor features and staging were not associated with CLN involvement features. Therefore, full extent PCLND should be carried out to avoid reoperation or metastasis in PTC patients.

Comprehensive analysis of tissue proteomics in patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma uncovers the underlying mechanism of lymph node metastasis and its significant sex disparities

Background

Lymph node metastasis (LNM) in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) is associated with an increased risk of recurrence and poor prognosis. Sex has been regarded as a critical risk factor for LNM. The present study aimed to investigate the molecular mechanisms underlying LNM and its significant sex disparities in PTMC development.

Methods

A direct data-independent acquisition (DIA) proteomics approach was used to identify differentially expressed proteins (DEPs) in PTMC tumorous tissues with or without LNM and from male and female patients with LNM. The functional annotation of DEPs was performed using bioinformatics methods. Furthermore, The Cancer Genome Atlas Thyroid Carcinoma (TCGA-THCA) dataset and immunohistochemistry (IHC) were used to validate selected DEPs.

Results

The proteomics profile in PTMC with LNM differed from that of PTMC without LNM. The metastasis-related DEPs were primarily enriched in categories associated with mitochondrial dysfunction and may promote tumor progression by activating oxidative phosphorylation and PI3K/AKT signaling pathways. Comparative analyses of these DEPs revealed downregulated expression of specific proteins with well-established links to tumor metastasis, such as SLC25A15, DIRAS2, PLA2R1, and MTARC1. Additionally, the proteomics profiles of male and female PTMC patients with LNM were dramatically distinguishable. An elevated level of ECM-associated proteins might be related to more LNM in male PTMC than in female PTMC patients. The upregulated expression levels of MMRN2 and NID2 correlated with sex disparities and showed a positive relationship with unfavorable variables, such as LNMs and poor prognosis.

Conclusions

The proteomics profiles of PTMC show significant differences associated with LNM and its sex disparities, which further expands our understanding of the functional networks and signaling pathways related to PTMC with LNM.

Active surveillance of highly suspicious thyroid nodules cohort in China shows a worse psychological status in younger patients

BACKGROUND

Active surveillance has been considered a safe alternative to surgery for low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma. This study aimed to assess the oncological outcomes and psychological status of active surveillance of highly suspicious thyroid nodules ≤10 mm in China.

METHODS

This prospective single-center cohort study enrolled 336 patients with highly suspicious thyroid nodules for active surveillance to assess oncological outcomes and psychological status. The psychological status of patients was assessed by two different questionnaires and compared among different patient groups.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up period of 28.5 months, eight patients underwent delayed surgery for tumor enlargement and one for lymph node metastases. The cumulative incidence of disease progression at 5 and 10 years was 6.0% and 12.8%, respectively. Patients who underwent delayed surgery had no permanent complications, and no patient had distant metastasis or death. Patients ≤30 years old had a higher baseline anxiety score (4.9 vs. 3.8, p=0.024), a higher proportion of baseline anxiety score, i.e., ≥8 points (24.0% vs. 12.6%, p=0.033), and a worse baseline emotional function (62.7 vs. 70.7, p=0.013) than patients >30. During AS, patients ≤30 years of age had higher overall anxiety levels (p=0.005) and a worse overall emotional function (p=0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Active surveillance in Chinese patients with highly suspicious subcentimetre thyroid nodules has good oncological outcomes and can be used as a safe alternative to surgery. Younger patients (≤30) show a worse psychological status; therefore, more attention should be paid to younger patients.

What Are the Characteristics of Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma Prone to High-Volume Lateral Lymph Node Metastasis? - An Analysis of 2981 Consecutive Cases

PURPOSE

To identify candidate factors for predicting high-volume lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC).

METHODS

We retrospectively studied 2981 patients with PTMC who underwent thyroidectomy from 2013 to 2016. LLNM was identified by histopathology. Patients with different LLNM statuses were compared according to clinical, sonographic and pathological parameters. A multivariate logistic model was established to predict high-volume LLNM (number of metastatic lymph nodes >5).

RESULTS

High-volume LLNM of PTMC was independently associated with age < 40 years (OR = 1.791, P = 0.023), male sex (OR = 2.401, p = 0.001), tumor size > 0.5 cm (OR = 4.839, p < 0.001), extrathyroidal extension (OR = 2.097, p = 0.007) and microcalcification (OR = 2.894, p = 0.002). These five factors were incorporated together to develop a multivariate analysis, which showed good predictive ability (AUC = 0.78, 95% CI 0.72-0.83), with a sensitivity of 80.0% and a specificity of 61.4%. Moreover, more level II or V lateral regions were involved in patients with high-volume LLNM than in those with small-volume LLNM (69.2% vs. 25.0%, p < 0.001; 10.8% vs. 4.7%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Multilevel LLNM tended to be more common in patients with PTMC who had high-volume LLNM. The high-volume LLNM rates of patients with PTMC with age < 40 years, male sex, tumor size > 0.5 cm, extrathyroidal extension and microcalcification were relatively higher than those without. These findings may be useful for identifying patients at higher high-volume LLNM risk who may require more aggressive treatment or intensive follow-up management.

A Mathematical Model to Assess the Effect of Residual Positive Lymph Nodes on the Survival of Patients With Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma

Background

Active surveillance (AS) has been considered the first-line management for patients with clinical low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) who often have lymph node micrometastasis (m-LNM) when diagnosed. The "low-risk" and "high prevalence of m-LNM" paradox is a potential barrier to the acceptance of AS for thyroid cancer by both surgeons and patients.

Methods

Patients diagnosed with PTMC who underwent thyroidectomy with at least one lymph node (LN) examined were identified from a tertiary center database (n = 5,399). A β-binomial distribution was used to estimate the probability of missing nodal disease as a function of the number of LNs examined. Overall survival (OS) probabilities of groups with adequate and inadequate numbers of LNs examined were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (n = 15,340). A multivariable model with restricted cubic splines was also used to verify the association of OS with the number of LNs examined.

Results

The risk of residual m-LNM (missed nodal disease) ranged from 31.3% to 10.0% if the number of LNs examined ranged from 1 and 7 in patients with PTMC. With 7 LNs examined serving as the cutoff value, the intergroup comparison showed that residual positive LNs did not affect OS across all patients and patients aged ≥55 years (P = 0.72 and P = 0.112, respectively). After adjusting for patient and clinical characteristics, the multivariate model also showed a slight effect of the number of LNs examined on OS (P = 0.69).

Conclusions

Even with the high prevalence, OS is not significantly compromised by persistent m-LNM in the body of patients with low-risk PTMC. These findings suggest that the concerns of LNM should not be viewed as an obstacle to developing AS for thyroid cancer. For patients with PTMC who undergo surgery, prophylactic central LN dissection does not provide a survival benefit.

Artificial Neural Network-Based Ultrasound Radiomics Can Predict Large-Volume Lymph Node Metastasis in Clinical N0 Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Patients

Objective

To evaluate the ability of artificial neural network- (ANN-) based ultrasound radiomics to predict large-volume lymph node metastasis (LNM) preoperatively in clinical N0 disease (cN0) papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients.

Methods

From January 2020 to April 2021, 306 cN0 PTC patients admitted to our hospital were retrospectively reviewed and divided into a training (n = 183) cohort and a validation cohort (n = 123) in a 6 : 4 ratio. Radiomic features quantitatively extracted from ultrasound images were pruned to train one ANN-based radiomic model and three conventional machine learning-based classifiers in the training cohort. Furthermore, an integrated model using ANN was constructed for better prediction. Meanwhile, the prediction of the two models was evaluated in the papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) and conventional papillary thyroid cancer (CPTC) subgroups.

Results

The radiomic model showed better discrimination than other classifiers for large-volume LNM in the validation cohort, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.856 and an area under the precision-recall curve (AUPR) of 0.381. The performance of the integrated model was better, with an AUROC of 0.910 and an AUPR of 0.463. According to the calibration curve and decision curve analysis, the radiomic and integrated models had good calibration and clinical usefulness. Moreover, the models had good predictive performance in the PTMC and CPTC subgroups.

Conclusion

ANN-based ultrasound radiomics could be a potential tool to predict large-volume LNM preoperatively in cN0 PTC patients.

Clinicopathologic predictors of central lymph node metastases in clinical node-negative papillary thyroid microcarcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The presence of central lymph node metastases (CLNM) has been suggested as a risk factor for poorer prognosis and recurrence in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC). However, the clinicopathologic factors for CLNM in clinical node-negative (CN0) PTMC were not well defined. This study aimed to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the significant clinicopathologic predictors of CLNM in CN0 PTMC.

Methods

A systematic literature search was performed in PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science. Case-control studies on the association of clinicopathologic risk factors with CLNM in CN0 PTMC were included.

Results

Thirteen eligible studies involving 6068 patients with CN0 PTMC were included. From the pooled analyses, male (odds ratio [OR]: 2.07, 95% CI: 1.49–2.87, P < 0.001), multifocality (OR: 1.88, 95% CI: 1.54–2.29, P < 0.001), tumor size > 5 mm (OR: 1.84, 95% CI: 1.55–2.18, P < 0.001), and extrathyroidal extension (OR: 1.96, 95% CI: 1.30–2.95, P = 0.001) are significantly associated with increased risk of CLNM in CN0 PTMC. A sample size with a cutoff point of 200 was identified as the source of heterogeneity for sex according to meta-regression (t = 3.18, P = 0.033). Then, the subgroup analysis of male was performed, which illustrated that male increased the risk of CLNM in the small sample group (SG) and the large sample group (LG) by 6.11-folds and 2.01-folds, respectively (SG: OR, 6.11, 95% CI, 3.16–11.81, P < 0.001; LG: OR, 2.01, 95% CI, 1.65–2.46, P < 0.001).

Conclusions

Male, multifocality, tumor size > 5 mm, and extrathyroidal extension may be reliable clinical predictors of CLNM in CN0 PTMC. Moreover, prophylactic central lymph node dissection should be considered in surgical decision-making for CN0 PTMC patients, who are male, multifocal, with tumor size > 5 mm, and with extrathyroidal extension.

Trial registration

CRD42021242211 (PROSPERO)

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12957-022-02573-7.

Clinicopathological and ultrasound features as risk stratification predictors of clinical and pathological nodal status in papillary thyroid carcinoma: a study of 748 patients

Background

Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is the most common histological type of thyroid malignancy that tends to metastasize to cervical lymph nodes. In the present study, we aimed to investigate which clinicopathologic and ultrasound features of PTC are associated with clinical lymph node metastasis (LNM) and numbers of pathological LNM.

Methods

From January 2016 to December 2018, we identified a cohort of patients with PTC who underwent cervical ultrasonography and were diagnosed through operation and pathology. Clinical N1(cN1) and > 5 pathologic N1(pN1) were considered in the postoperative stratification to have an intermediate risk according to the 2015 ATA guidelines. Clinicopathological and ultrasound features in PTC patients were performed in accordance with the independent risk factors of cN1 and > 5pN1 respectively by using the univariate and multivariate analyses.

Results

We collected 748 PTC patients in the final inclusion criteria. There were 688 cN0 cases and 60 cN1 cases. From the analyses, primary tumor size > 2 cm, capsule contact, extrathyroidal extensions (ETE) and central LNM remained independent risk factors for cN1 in PTC patients. In the 748 PTC patients, 707 cases had ≤ 5 pN1, and 41 cases had > 5 pN1. Multifocality, primary tumor size > 2 cm, capsule contact and ETE are significant independent risk factors for > 5 pN1.

Conclusions

We concluded that multifocality, primary tumor size > 2 cm, capsule contact, ETE and central LNM were independent risk factors for the intermediate risk stratification in patients with PTC. Ultrasonography is a good technique for the preoperative lymph node staging of PTC and is helpful for detecting LNM.

Clinical Factors Predictive of Lymph Node Metastasis in Thyroid Cancer Patients: A Multivariate Analysis

BACKGROUND

Early-stage thyroid cancers have excellent survival. However, lymph node metastases (LNM) confer a worse prognosis and are not always known preoperatively. Therefore, investigation on the clinical and histological factors predictive of LNM in thyroid cancers was conducted to tailor the extent of surgery and radioactive iodine therapy.

STUDY DESIGN

Multivariate logistic regressions were performed based on retrospective data from thyroid cancer patients seen between 2013 and 2020 at a single institution.

RESULTS

Among 913 patients, mean age was 49.4 years, 76.5% were female, 58.3% were White, 21.2% were Black, and 27.9% had LNM. In the multivariate analyses in which the outcome was LNM, White (odds ratio [OR] 1.74, 95% CI 0.98 to 3.15, p = 0.064) and Hispanic patients (OR 2.36, 95% CI 0.97 to 5.77, p = 0.059) trended toward higher risk of LNM compared to Black patients, whereas age (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.00, p = 0.008) showed protective effect. Tumor size (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.07, p = 0.007), extrathyroidal extension (OR 2.46, 95% CI 1.53 to 3.97, p < 0.001), lymphovascular invasion (OR 6.30, 95% CI 3.68 to 11.14, p < 0.001), and multifocality (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.12, p = 0.042) were associated with higher risk of LNM. In another model with outcome as >5 LNM, tumor size (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.11, p = 0.001), age (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.93 to 0.97, p < 0.001), extrathyroidal extension (OR 3.20, 95% CI 1.83 to 5.61, p < 0.001), and lymphovascular invasion (OR 6.82, 95% CI 3.87 to 12.17, p < 0.001) remained significant predictors.

CONCLUSION

Our analyses demonstrated and confirmed that age, tumor size, extrathyroidal extension, and lymphovascular invasion are independent predictors of significant LNM, thereby conferring higher risk of recurrence. Risk of LNM based on these patient characteristics should be considered when planning an operative approach.

Development of an Active Surveillance or Surgery Model to Predict Lymph Node Metastasis in cN0 Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma

OBJECTIVE

Involvement of multiple lymph node (LN) metastasis in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) may indicate a progressive disease. To assist treatment decision, we conducted a clinical study to develop and validate a prediction model for the preoperative evaluation of LN metastasis involving more than five lymph nodes in patients with clinical N0 (cN0) PTMC.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Using data from 6,337 patients with cN0 PTMCs at Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital from 2013 to 2017, we identified and integrated risk factors for the prediction of multiple LN metastasis to build a nomogram. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were evaluated by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. The model was validated using bootstrap resampling of the training cohort and an independent temporal validation cohort at the same institution.

RESULTS

In the training cohort (n = 3,209 patients), six independent risk factors were identified and included the prediction model (PTMC Active Surveillance or Surgery (ASOS) Model), including age, gender, multifocality, tumor size, calcification, and aspect ratio. The PTMC ASOS model was validated both internally and through the temporal validation cohort (n = 3,128 patients) from the same institute. The C-indexes of the prediction model in the training cohort were 0.768 (95% CI, 0.698-0.838), 0.768 and 0.771 in the internal validation and external validation cohorts, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.7068 and 0.6799. The calibration curve for probability of large-LN metastasis showed good agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. DCA curves were used for comparison with another model, and IDI and NRI were also calculated. The cutoff value of our model was obtained by the ROC curve. Based on this model and cut point, a web-based dynamic nomogram was developed (https://tjmuch-thyroid.shinyapps.io/PTMCASOSM/).

CONCLUSION

We established a novel nomogram that can help to distinguish preoperatively cN0 PTMC patients with or without metastasis of multiple lymph nodes. This clinical prediction model may be used in decision making for both active surveillance and surgery.

Prediction of the invasiveness of PTMC by a combination of ultrasound and the WNT10A gene

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to predict the invasiveness of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) via ultrasonography in combination with the Wnt family member 10A (WNT10A) gene to provide a reference basis for evaluating the invasive capability of PTMC.

METHODS

Cancer tissue were collected from 182 patients with unifocal PTMC, and the patients were divided into the invasive group and the non-invasive group based on whether the lesions invaded the thyroid capsules or whether lymph node metastasis occurred. The expression of WNT10A protein was examined. Age, sex, maximum nodule diameter, color Doppler flow imaging (CDFI), nodule echo, microcalcification, aspect ratio, morphology (boundary), nodule location, internal structure, ultrasound-suspected lymph node metastasis (US-LNM), and WNT10A expression were compared between the invasive group and the non-invasive group. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed, and a p value of less than 0.05 indicated that the difference was statistically significant.

RESULTS

(1) 36 patients in the non-invasive group showed high expression and 66 patients showed low or no expression, while 54 patients in the invasive group showed high expression and 26 patients showed low or no expression, suggesting that the expression level of WNT10A was higher in the invasive group than in the non-invasive group, with a statistically significant difference between the two groups (P<0.01). (2) Univariate analysis showed that there were statistically significant differences between the invasive PTMC group and the non-invasive group in age, sex, maximum nodule diameter, microcalcification, US-LNM and high WNT10A expression. (3) Multivariate analysis showed that the risk factors for invasiveness in patients with PTMC included age < 45 years, maximum nodule diameter > 7 mm, microcalcification, US-LNM and high WNT10A expression.

CONCLUSION

The risk factors for PTMC invasiveness included age < 45 years, maximum nodule diameter >7 mm, microcalcification, US-LNM and high WNT10A expression. A combination of ultrasonography and WNT10A gene analysis could provide a reference basis for evaluating the invasive capability of PTMC.

Related factor analysis for predicting large-volume central cervical lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma

The aim of this study was to investigate the factors related to large-volume central cervical lymph node metastasis (LNM) in papillary thyroid carcinoma. A retrospective study of 340 patients with 642 papillary thyroid carcinoma nodules who underwent thyroidectomy in Peking Union Medical College Hospital between 2011 and 2015 was conducted. These nodules were divided into two groups by the number of central cervical lymph node metastases: large-volume central cervical LNM (>5 metastatic lymph nodes, n = 129) and no central cervical LNM (n = 211). We evaluated the correlations between gender, age, chronic lymphocytic thyroiditis, thyroid ultrasonographic features, and large-volume central cervical LNM. We found that younger age (≤40 years) (OR = 3.796, 95% CI = 2.842, 5.070), male gender (OR = 4.005, 95% CI = 2.858, 5.61), and ultrasonographic features such as tumor macroaxis size (OR = 2.985, 95% CI = 1.581, 5.633), tumor located in the isthmus (OR = 7.578, 95% CI = 4.863, 11.810), ill-defined margin (OR = 3.008, 95% CI = 1.986, 4.556), microcalcification (OR = 2.155, 95% CI = 1.585, 2.929), and abnormal cervical lymph nodes (OR = 13.753, 95% CI = 9.278, 20.385) were independent risk factors for large-volume central cervical LNM in papillary thyroid carcinoma, while chronic lymphocytic thyroiditis (OR = 0.248, 95% CI = 0.172, 0.358) was a protective factor. Younger age (≤40 years), male sex, and ultrasonographic features such as tumor macroaxis size, tumor located in the isthmus, ill-defined margin, microcalcification, and abnormal cervical lymph nodes were independent risk factors for large-volume central cervical LNM in papillary thyroid carcinoma, while chronic lymphocytic thyroiditis can be considered a protective factor. Our results provide a reference for adjusting clinical treatment approaches.

Risk probability model for residual metastatic lymph node in patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma undergoing cervical central lymph node dissection

To establish a risk probability model for residual metastatic lymph nodes in patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) after cervical central lymph node dissection (CLND). The clinical data of patients with PTMC treated in the First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University from 2007 to 2020 were retrospectively reviewed. All patients underwent thyroidectomy with CLND, and at least one lymph node was examined. Based on the distribution characteristics of metastatic lymph nodes from this retrospective cohort, a probabilistic model for the risk of residual metastatic lymph node was established. β-Binomial distribution was used to estimate the probability of residual metastatic lymph node as a function of the number of lymph nodes examined. Among 5399 patients included in the probabilistic model, central lymph node metastases were observed in 1664 cases (30.8%). After model correction, the real lymph node metastasis rate increased from 30.8% to 38.9%. The probability of false negative of central lymph node was estimated to be 31.3% for patients with a single node examined, while decreased to 10.0% and 4.9% when 7 and 12 nodes were examined, respectively. In the sensitivity analysis limited to patients with or without Hashimoto thyroiditis, the performance of probability model was also satisfactory. The established risk probability model in this study quantifies the risk of residual metastatic lymph nodes after CLND in patients with PTMC, which can be used as complementary indicators for the risk of recurrence/persistence disease at postoperative evaluation. The study also provides a new method to evaluate the impact of residual metastatic lymph nodes on the prognosis of tumor patients through retrospective data.

A Preoperative Nomogram for the Prediction of High-Volume Central Lymph Node Metastasis in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

Background

High-volume lymph node metastasis (HVLNM, equal to or more than 5 lymph nodes) is one of the adverse features indicating high recurrence risk in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) and is recommended as one of the indications of completion thyroidectomy for patients undergoing thyroid lobectomy at first. In this study, we aim to develop a preoperative nomogram for the prediction of HVLNMs in the central compartment in PTC (cT1-2N0M0), where preoperative imaging techniques perform poor.

Methods

From October 2016 to April 2021, 423 patients were included, who were diagnosed as PTC (cT1-2N0M0) and underwent total thyroidectomy and prophylactic central compartment neck dissection in our center. Demographic and clinicopathological features were recorded and analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. A nomogram was developed based on multivariate logistic regression analysis.

Results

Among the included patients, 13.4% (57 cases) were found to have HVLNMs in the central compartment. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (35 years), BRAF with V600E mutated, nodule diameter, and calcification independently predicted HVLNMs in the central compartment. The nomogram showed good discrimination with an AUC of 0.821 (95% CI, 0.768-0.875).

Conclusion

The preoperative nomogram can be used to quantify the probability of HVLNMs in the central compartment and may reduce the reoperation rate after thyroid lobectomy.

A cohort study of microwave ablation and surgery for low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma

BACKGROUND

The optimal treatment method for papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) is lacking consensus. Here we aimed to compare the efficacy and safety of surgery and microwave ablation (MWA) for PTMC.

METHODS

The clinical data of 644 patients with PTMC treated between July 2013 and June 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. A total of 320 and 324 patients underwent MWA and surgery, respectively. We observed lesion changes in the MWA group and compared the recurrence, metastasis, complications, and other health economic indicators between the 2 groups.

RESULTS

The mean follow-up time was 890.7 ± 532.9 (187.9-2679.0) days in the MWA group and 910.9 ± 568.4 (193.8-2821.5) days in the surgery group. In the MWA group, lesion volume increased significantly after ablation and then gradually decreased. The final lesion volume reduction rate was 90.73% ± 7.94%, and 193 lesions (60.3%) disappeared completely. There were no significant intergroup differences in recurrence or metastasis. The incidence of main complications (temporary hypothyroidism, hypoparathyroidism, and temporary hoarseness) was significantly lower in the MWA group than in the surgery group (p < 0.001). The treatment time, intraoperative blood loss, and hospital stay were significantly lower in the MWA group than in the surgery group (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

MWA is effective for treating PTMC, with a low incidence of complications and less trauma. The rates of post-treatment recurrence and metastasis are similar to those of surgery, indicating that MWA is a suitable alternative to surgery.

Tumor Volume Doubling Time in Active Surveillance of Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma: A Multicenter Cohort Study in Korea

Background: Some papillary thyroid microcarcinomas (PTMCs) may progress with tumor enlargement or development of new lymph node (LN) metastasis during active surveillance (AS). This study evaluated the relevant predictors of disease progression, especially new cervical LN metastasis. Methods: This was a long-term follow-up study conducted using a previous multicenter cohort of AS in Korea. After excluding 54 (14.2%) patients with a short follow-up duration, 326 PTMC patients were evaluated for tumor kinetics, including changes in tumor volume (TV) and TV doubling time (TVDT). Results: During a median follow-up duration of 4.9 years, 17 (5.2%, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 2.7-7.6%) patients showed a maximal diameter increase of ≥3 mm after a median of 4.0 years follow-up, while 9 (2.8%, CI 1.0-4.5%) developed new LN metastasis after a median of 2.2 years follow-up. New cervical LN metastasis occurred exclusively of a maximal diameter increase of ≥3 mm. The prevalence of new development of LN metastasis was higher in patients with TVDT <5 years (7.4%) than in those with TV ≥50% (3.2%). Furthermore, only TVDT <5 years was significantly associated with LN metastasis (p = 0.002). In univariate and multivariate analyses, TVDT <5 years was an independent risk factor for disease progression with respect to new development of LN metastasis (hazard ratio [HR] = 6.51, CI 1.73-24.50; p = 0.002) and tumor enlargement (HR = 20.89, CI 5.78-75.48; p < 0.001). Finally, 86 (22.6%) patients underwent delayed surgery, and the most common reason was patient anxiety. Conclusions: TVDT <5 years is a predictor of disease progression during AS in terms of new LN metastasis development as well as tumor enlargement. Determination of TVDT in the early phase of AS could help in predicting disease progression, tailoring follow-up intensity of AS and in determining if early surgical intervention is needed.

Reevaluation of Criteria and Establishment of Models for Total Thyroidectomy in Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

Introduction

After the publication of the 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines, the indication for total thyroidectomy (TT) was reported to be underestimated before surgery, which may lead to a substantial rate of secondary completion thyroidectomy (CTx).

Methods and Materials

We retrospectively analyzed differentiated thyroid cancer patients from Wuhan Union Hospital (WHUH). Univariate analysis was performed to evaluate all preoperative and intraoperative factors. New models were picked out by comminating and arranging all significant factors and were compared with ATA and National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guidelines in the multicenter prospective Differentiated Thyroid Cancer in China (DTCC) cohort.

Results

A total of 5,331 patients from WHUH were included. Pre- and intraoperative criteria individually identified 906 (17.0%) and 213 (4.0%) patients eligible for TT. Among all factors, age <35 years old, clinical N1, and ultrasound reported local invasion had high positive predictive value to predict patients who should undergo TT. Accordingly, we established two new models that minorly revised ATA guidelines but performed much better. Model 1 replaced “nodule size >4 cm” with “age <35 years old” and achieved significant increase in the sensitivity (WHUH, 0.711 vs. 0.484; DTCC, 0.675 vs. 0.351). Model 2 simultaneously demands the presence of “nodule size >4 cm” and “age <35 years old,” which had a significant increase in the specificity (WHUH, 0.905 vs. 0.818; DTCC, 0.729 vs. 0.643).

Conclusion

All high-risk factors had limited predictive ability. Our model added young age as a new criterion for total thyroidectomy to get a higher diagnostic value than the guidelines.

Active Surveillance as an Effective Management Option for Low-Risk Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma

Active surveillance (AS) for low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) has been accepted worldwide as safe and effective. Despite the growing acceptance of AS in the management of low-risk PTMCs, there are barriers to AS in real clinical settings, and it is important to understand and establish appropriate AS protocol from initial evaluation to follow-up. PTMC management strategies should be decided upon after careful consideration of patient and tumor characteristics by a multidisciplinary team of thyroid cancer specialists. Patients should understand the risks and benefits of AS, participate in decision-making and follow structured monitoring strategies. In this review, we discuss clinical outcomes of AS from previous studies, optimal indications and follow-up strategies for AS, and unresolved questions about AS.

Clinicopathological Significance of Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Located in the Isthmus: A Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

The thyroid isthmus is located directly anterior to the trachea and is covered by the strap muscles. Several studies have suggested that papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) in the isthmus is more aggressive and is associated with a poor prognosis. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to assess the clinicopathological characteristics and recurrence rates of PTC in the isthmus compared to PTC at other sites.

METHODS

Relevant articles were obtained by searching the PubMed database. A meta-analysis was performed using 11 eligible studies.

RESULTS

The rate of extrathyroidal extension was 0.502 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.239-0.764) and 0.454 (95% CI: 0.331-0.582) for isthmus PTC and PTC at other site, respectively; however, the difference in the rates was not statistically significant. Lymphovascular invasion did not significantly differ between isthmus PTC (0.179 [95% CI: 0.102-0.297]) and PTC at other sites (0.114 [95% CI: 0.066-0.188]). The rate of central lymph node (LN) metastasis was significantly higher in isthmus PTC (0.527 [95% CI: 0.435-0.617]) than in PTC at other sites (0.352 [95% CI: 0.280-0.432]). No significant difference was observed between the two groups in terms of lateral cervical LN metastasis rate. Isthmus PTC was more likely to have a prominent recurrence rate (0.046 [95% CI: 0.022-0.094]) than PTC at other sites (0.010 [95% CI: 0.001-0.070]); however, the difference was not statistically significant (because of the small number of included studies).

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this meta-analysis indicated that isthmus PTC was associated with an increased risk of central LN metastasis. Isthmus PTC seems to have a slightly higher recurrence rate than PTC at other sites. Therefore, considering the potential of the isthmus location as an unfavorable factor, more attention should be focused on isthmus PTC, and a more aggressive approach such as prophylactic central LN dissection might provide better outcomes in PTC management.

Predictive Factor of Large-Volume Central Lymph Node Metastasis in Clinical N0 Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Patients Underwent Total Thyroidectomy

Large-volume central lymph node metastasis (large-volume CLNM) is associated with high recurrence rate in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients. However, sensitivity in investigating large-volume CLNM on preoperative ultrasonography (US) is not high. The aim of this study is to investigate the clinical factors associated with large-volume CLNM in clinical N0 PTC patients. We reviewed 976 PTC patients undergoing total thyroidectomy with central lymph node dissection during 2017 to 2019. The rate of large-volume LNM was 4.1% (40 of 967 patients). Multivariate analysis showed that male gender and young age (age<45 years old) were independent risk factors for large-volume CLNM with odds ratios [(OR), 95% confidence interval (CI)] of 2.034 (1.015-4.073) and 2.997 (1.306-6.876), respectively. In papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC), capsule invasion was associated with large-volume CLNM with OR (95% CI) of 2.845 (1.110-7.288). In conventional papillary thyroid cancer (CPTC), tumor diameter (>2cm) was associated with large-volume CLNM, with OR (95% CI) 3.757 (1.061-13.310), by multivariate analysis. In ROC curve analysis on the diameter of the CPTC tumor, the Area Under Curve (AUC) =0.682(p=0.013), the best cut-off point was selected as 2.0cm. In conclusion, male gender and young age were predictors for large-volume CLNM of cN0 PTC. cN0 PTMC patient with capsule invasion and cN0 CPTC patient with tumor diameter >2cm were correlated with large-volume CLNM. Total thyroidectomy with central lymph node dissection may be a favorable primary treatment option for those patients.

Five-year follow-up results of thermal ablation for low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinomas: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Confidence in long-term treatment results of thermal ablation for papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) is required in comparison with active surveillance. The objective of this meta-analysis is to report 5-year follow-up results of thermal ablation for PTMC.

METHODS

Ovid MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched through May 30, 2020, for studies reporting outcomes in patients with PTMC treated with thermal ablation and followed up for at least 5 years. Data were extracted and methodological quality was assessed independently by two radiologists according to the PRISMA guidelines.

RESULTS

Three studies, involving 207 patients with 219 PTMCs, met the inclusion criteria through database searches. None of these patients experienced local tumor recurrence, lymph node metastasis, or distant metastasis or underwent delayed surgery during a mean pooled 67.8-month follow-up. Five new tumors appeared in the remaining thyroid gland of four patients, with four of these tumors successfully treated by repeat thermal ablation. The pooled mean major complication rate was 1.2%, with no patient experiencing life-threatening or delayed complications.

CONCLUSIONS

Thermal ablation is an excellent local tumor control method in patients with low-risk PTMC, with low major complication rates at 5 years.

KEY POINTS

• No local tumor recurrence, lymph node metastasis, or distant metastasis was noted by thermal ablation during follow-up of 5 years and none underwent delayed surgery. • The pooled mean major complication rate was 1.2%.

Risk Factors and a Prediction Model of Lateral Lymph Node Metastasis in CN0 Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Patients With 1-2 Central Lymph Node Metastases

BACKGROUND

Papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) in clinically lymph node-negative (cN0) patients is prone toward lymph node metastasis. As a risk factor for tumor persistence and local recurrence, lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) is related to the number of central lymph node metastases (CLNMs).

METHODS

We performed LLNM risk stratification based on the number of CLNMs for cN0 PTC patients who underwent thyroidectomy and lymph node dissection between January 2013 and December 2018. A retrospective analysis was applied to the 274 collected patients with 1-2 CLNMs. We examined the clinicopathological characteristics of the patients and constructed a LASSO model.

RESULTS

In the 1-2 CLNM group, tumors >10 mm located in the upper region and nodular goiters were independent risk factors for LLNM. Specifically, tumors >20 mm and located in the upper region contributed to metastasis risk at level II. Hashimoto's thyroiditis reduced this risk (p = 0.045, OR = 0.280). Age ≤ 30 years and calcification (microcalcification within thyroid nodules) correlated with LLNM. The LASSO model divided the population into low- (25.74%) and high-risk (57.25%) groups for LLNM, with an AUC of 0.715.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with 1-2 CLNMs, young age, calcification, nodular goiter, tumor >10 mm, and tumor in the upper region should alert clinicians to considering a higher occult LLNM burden. Close follow-up and therapy adjustment may be warranted for high-risk patients.

Web-Based Ultrasonic Nomogram Predicts Preoperative Central Lymph Node Metastasis of cN0 Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Many clinicians are facing the dilemma about whether they should apply the active surveillance (AS) strategy for managing Clinically Node-negative (cN0) PTMC patients in daily clinical practice. This research plans to construct a dynamic nomogram based on network, connected with ultrasound characteristics and clinical data, to predict the risk of central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in cN0 PTMC patients before surgery.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 659 patients with cN0 PTMC who had underwent thyroid surgery and central compartment neck dissection. Patients were randomly (2:1) divided into the development cohort (439 patients) and validation cohort (220 patients). The group least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Group Lasso) regression method was used to select the ultrasonic features for CLNM prediction in the development cohort. These features and clinical data were screened by the multivariable regression analysis, and the CLNM prediction model and web-based calculator were established. Receiver operating characteristic, calibration curve, Clinical impact curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to weigh the performance of the prediction model in the validation set.

RESULTS

Multivariable regression analysis showed that age, tumor size, multifocality, the number of contact surface, and real-time elastography were risk factors that could predict CLNM. The area under the curve of the prediction model in the development and validation sets were 0.78 and 0.77, respectively, with good discrimination and calibration. A web-based dynamic calculator was built. DCA proved that the prediction model had excellent net benefits and clinical practicability.

CONCLUSIONS

The web-based dynamic nomogram incorporating US and clinical features was able to forecast the risk of preoperative CLNM in cN0 PTMC patients, and has good predictive performance. As a new observational indicator, NCS can provide additional predictive information.