Assessing mumps outbreak risk in highly vaccinated populations using spatial seroprevalence data

Quantification of Waning Immunity After Measles Vaccination-Evidence From a Seroprevalence Study

We aimed to quantify rates of waning immunity after measles vaccination from seroprevalence data collected in a study of a population with high vaccination coverage and a fixed vaccination schedule. Data were collected during a national survey (the Immunological Survey) carried out in the Slovak Republic in 2018. The average rate of waning immunity against measles after the first dose of measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine (ages 1.5-10 years) was 9.7% per year from the geometric mean titer value of 2,634 mUI/mL. The average waning rate after the second dose of MMR vaccine (ages 10-33 years) was significantly lower: 4.8% per year from the lower geometric mean titer of 1,331 mUI/mL. This decline in antibody levels suggests that vaccine-induced protection may be compromised and results in an increase in the proportion of seronegative/borderline individuals. These outcomes may provide a valuable source for critical assessment of direct and indirect effects of MMR vaccination.

Critical interpretative synthesis of herd immunity for COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction:

Countries globally are evaluating the concept of herd immunity and its critical role in the control of pandemic. The current paper attempts to conduct a critical interpretative synthesis (CIS) on the role of herd immunity in current COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods:

CIS is tool for developing theoretical framework using interpretation drawn from relevant empirical and non-empirical sources. This review is done by formulating review question for literature search. Purposive sampling of literature was done followed by reciprocal translational analysis of extracted data.

Results:

Herd immunity is indirect protection from a contagious infectious disease when a population is immune either through vaccination or natural immunity developed through previous infection. The reproduction number for COVID-19 in India was found to be 2.56 and herd immunity threshold as 61%.

Discussion:

Exposing 71% young population in India to the SARS-CoV-2 infection can achieve herd immunity but with high morbidity as well as mortality. Vaccine are under process. Feco-oral transmission and reinfection of COVID 19 are major factors to develop or break the circle of herd immunity in community. “Immunity passport” can give false sense of security. Surveillance and seroprevalence studies assess immunity status, gradual exposure of infection to younger population and collaborative partnerships on organizations are few strategies to acquire herd immunity.

Conclusion:

Herd immunity is a measure for prevention and control of COVID-19 pandemic against the backdrop of mortality and morbidity. Vaccine can be boon but if herd immunity is to be acquired by natural infection then preparedness is necessary.

Estimating SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and epidemiological parameters with uncertainty from serological surveys

Establishing how many people have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 remains an urgent priority for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. Serological tests that identify past infection can be used to estimate cumulative incidence, but the relative accuracy and robustness of various sampling strategies have been unclear. We developed a flexible framework that integrates uncertainty from test characteristics, sample size, and heterogeneity in seroprevalence across subpopulations to compare estimates from sampling schemes. Using the same framework and making the assumption that seropositivity indicates immune protection, we propagated estimates and uncertainty through dynamical models to assess uncertainty in the epidemiological parameters needed to evaluate public health interventions and found that sampling schemes informed by demographics and contact networks outperform uniform sampling. The framework can be adapted to optimize serosurvey design given test characteristics and capacity, population demography, sampling strategy, and modeling approach, and can be tailored to support decision-making around introducing or removing interventions.

Immunogenicity and persistence of trivalent measles, mumps, and rubella vaccines: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Despite the universal use of the two-dose trivalent measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine in the past two decades, outbreaks of these diseases still occur in countries with high vaccine uptake, giving rise to concerns about primary and secondary failure of MMR vaccine components. We aimed to provide seroconversion and waning rate estimates for the measles, mumps, and rubella components of MMR vaccines.

METHODS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis we searched PubMed (including MEDLINE), Web of Science, and Embase for randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, or longitudinal studies reporting the immunogenicity and persistence of MMR vaccines, published in English from database inception to Dec 31, 2019. Studies were included if they investigated vaccine-induced immunity in healthy individuals who received a trivalent MMR vaccine, including different dosages and timepoints of vaccine administration. Studies featuring coadministration of MMR with other vaccines, maternal immunity to the MMR vaccine, or non-trivalent formulations of the vaccine were excluded. Pooled seroconversion and waning rates were estimated by random-effects meta-analyses. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42019116705.

FINDINGS

We identified 3615 unique studies, 62 (1·7%) of which were eligible for analysis. Estimated overall seroconversion rates were 96·0% (95% CI 94·5-97·4; I²=91·1%) for measles, 93·3% (91·1-95·2; I²=94·9%) for mumps when excluding the Rubini strain, 91·1% (87·4-94·1; I²=96·6%) for mumps when including the Rubini strain, and 98·3% (97·3-99·2; I²=93·0%) for rubella. Estimated overall annual waning rates were 0·009 (95% CI 0·005-0·016; I²=85·2%) for measles, 0·024 (0·016-0·039; I²=94·7%) for mumps, and 0·012 (0·010-0·014; I²=93·3%) for rubella.

INTERPRETATION

Our meta-analysis provides estimates of primary and secondary vaccine failure, which are essential to improve the accuracy of mathematical and statistical modelling to understand and predict the occurrence of future measles, mumps, and rubella outbreaks in countries with high vaccine uptake.

FUNDING

European Research Council.

Mumps Vaccines: Current Challenges and Future Prospects

Five decades have passed since the first mumps vaccine was licensed. Over this period, a resurgence of mumps infections has been recorded worldwide. Although global mumps infections have been controlled through vaccination, outbreaks are still on the rise, including in populations with high vaccination coverage. Several epidemiological studies suggest that this infectious virus continues to be a worldwide public health threat. The development and deployment of an improved, prophylactic mumps vaccine that provides long-lasting protection is indeed a priority. The purpose of this review is to provide an immuno-biological perspective on mumps vaccines. Here, we review the virology of mumps, licensed mumps vaccines, and the typical immune responses elicited following mumps vaccination. Furthermore, we discuss the limitations and challenges of the currently licensed mumps vaccines and provide strategies for the development of an improved mumps vaccine.

Assessment of immune status against measles, mumps, and rubella in young Kuwaitis: MMR vaccine efficacy

Seroprevalence studies on measles, mumps, and rubella immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies after the implementation of the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine are lacking in Kuwait. This study is an age-stratified serological study to assess the herd immunity to measles, mumps, and rubella among the young Kuwaiti population to evaluate the effectiveness of the MMR vaccine. IgG antibody titers to mumps, measles, and rubella were determined with commercial immune-assay in serum samples of 1000 Kuwaitis aged 5 to 20 years. The highest level of seropositivity was to measles (94.6%), which was significantly higher in females than in males. The highest seronegativity was for mumps (29%). The percentage of the young Kuwaiti population who were serologically positive for all the components of the MMR vaccine was 47%, and 2% of the individuals were without any protective antibodies to measles, mumps, and rubella. Females aged 5 to 10 years were best protected to rubella; however, seronegativity in 8.2% of 11- to 20-year-old females makes them vulnerable to rubella virus infection and congenital complications during pregnancy. The study provided insight into the effect of the MMR vaccine on seroprevalence of antibodies against measles, mumps, and rubella in Kuwait, which will contribute to the global knowledge base of vaccine coverage and help to inform elimination strategies. The findings strengthen the need for a third dose of MMR vaccine and catch-up campaigns for the young Kuwaiti population to increase vaccination coverage and prevent waning immunity, especially among those who received only one dose of the vaccine during childhood.

Resurgence risk for measles, mumps and rubella in France in 2018 and 2020

Large measles and mumps outbreaks recently occurred throughout Europe and the United States. Aim: Our aim was to estimate and map the risk of resurgence for measles, mumps and rubella in France. Methods: We used a multi-cohort model combining seroprevalence information, vaccine coverage and social contact data. Results: The overall outbreak risk for France in 2018 was highest for mumps, remained significant for measles despite a recent measles outbreak and was low for rubella. Outbreak risks were heterogeneous between departments, as the effective reproduction numbers for 2018 ranged from 1.08 to 3.66. The seroprevalence, and therefore the risk of measles and rubella infection, differed significantly between males and females. There was a lower seroprevalence, and therefore a higher risk, for males. Infants of less than 1 year would be seriously affected in a future outbreak of measles, mumps or rubella, but the highest overall caseload contribution would come from teenagers and young adults (10–25 years old). Conclusions: The high risk for teenagers and young adults is of concern in view of their vulnerability to more severe measles, mumps and rubella disease and complications.

Dynamic transmission model of routine mumps vaccination in Japan

The mumps vaccine is not included in the national immunisation programme (NIP) of approximately 80 countries including Japan. To investigate the vaccine's cost-effectiveness, we developed a dynamic transmission model for routine one- and two-dose mumps vaccination programs in Japan. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio compared with a current programme over a projected 50-year period. We created a Japanese population model and performed dynamic simulation to estimate the number of patients enrolled in the current programme, the routine one-dose programme, and the routine two-dose programme over the next 50 years using the Berkeley Madonna program. We estimated the medical and social costs of natural mumps infections and vaccinations to analyse cost-effectiveness. Finally, we performed a sensitivity analysis with parameters including vaccine cost, vaccine efficacy, medical costs per case, social costs per case, incidence of adverse events and discount rate. Base case analysis showed that both the one-dose and two-dose programmes predominated and that quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were saved, compared with the current programme. The medical costs, total cost and QALYs saved during the study period in the two-dose programme compared with the current programme were 217 billion JPY, 860 billion JPY and 184 779, respectively. The two-dose programme surpassed the one-dose programme throughout the study period. In all the scenarios of the sensitivity analysis, two-dose vaccination was better than the one-dose programme. This simulation confirmed that the routine two-dose vaccination programme was more cost-effective and QALY-saving than either the one-dose programme or the current programme. Because of the variability of the results between the various models, further simulations with different models should be conducted.

Waning Immunity Is Associated with Periodic Large Outbreaks of Mumps: A Mathematical Modeling Study of Scottish Data

Vaccination programs for childhood diseases, such as measles, mumps and rubella have greatly contributed to decreasing the incidence and impact of those diseases. Nonetheless, despite long vaccination programmes across the world, mumps has not yet been eradicated in those countries: indeed, large outbreaks continue. For example, in Scotland large outbreaks occurred in 2004, 2005, and 2015, despite introducing the MMR (Measles-Mumps-Rubella) vaccine more than 20 years ago. There are indications that this vaccine-preventable disease is re-emerging in highly vaccinated populations. Here we investigate whether the resurgence of mumps is due to waning immunity, and further, could a booster dose be the solution to eradicate mumps or would it just extend the period of waning immunity? Using mathematical modeling we enhance a seasonally-structured disease model with four scenarios: no vaccination, vaccinated individuals protected for life, vaccinated individuals at risk of waning immunity, and introduction of measures to increase immunity (a third dose, or a better vaccine). The model is parameterised from observed clinical data in Scotland 2004–2015 and the literature. The results of the four scenarios are compared with observed clinical data 2004–2016. While the force of infection is relatively sensitive to the duration of immunity and the number of boosters undertaken, we conclude that periodic large outbreaks of mumps will be sustained for all except the second scenario. This suggests that the current protocol of two vaccinations is optimal in the sense that while there are periodic large outbreaks, the severity of cases in vaccinated individuals is less than in unvaccinated individuals, and the size of the outbreaks does not decrease sufficiently with a third booster to make economic sense. This recommendation relies on continuous efforts to maintain high levels of vaccination uptake.

Social Contact Structures and Time Use Patterns in the Manicaland Province of Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

Patterns of person-to-person contacts relevant for infectious diseases transmission are still poorly quantified in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where socio-demographic structures and behavioral attitudes are expected to be different from those of more developed countries.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a diary-based survey on daily contacts and time-use of individuals of different ages in one rural and one peri-urban site of Manicaland, Zimbabwe. A total of 2,490 diaries were collected and used to derive age-structured contact matrices, to analyze time spent by individuals in different settings, and to identify the key determinants of individuals' mixing patterns. Overall 10.8 contacts per person/day were reported, with a significant difference between the peri-urban and the rural site (11.6 versus 10.2). A strong age-assortativeness characterized contacts of school-aged children, whereas the high proportion of extended families and the young population age-structure led to a significant intergenerational mixing at older ages. Individuals spent on average 67% of daytime at home, 2% at work, and 9% at school. Active participation in school and work resulted the key drivers of the number of contacts and, similarly, household size, class size, and time spent at work influenced the number of home, school, and work contacts, respectively. We found that the heterogeneous nature of home contacts is critical for an epidemic transmission chain. In particular, our results suggest that, during the initial phase of an epidemic, about 50% of infections are expected to occur among individuals younger than 12 years and less than 20% among individuals older than 35 years.

CONCLUSIONS

With the current work, we have gathered data and information on the ways through which individuals in SSA interact, and on the factors that mostly facilitate this interaction. Monitoring these processes is critical to realistically predict the effects of interventions on infectious diseases dynamics.

Inferring rubella outbreak risk from seroprevalence data in Belgium

Rubella is usually a mild disease for which infections often pass by unnoticed. In approximately 50% of the cases, there are no or only few clinical symptoms. However, rubella contracted during early pregnancy could lead to spontaneous abortion, to central nervous system defects, or to one of a range of other serious and debilitating conditions in a newborn such as the congenital rubella syndrome. Before the introduction of mass vaccination, rubella was a common childhood infection occurring all over the world. However, since the introduction of rubella antigen-containing vaccines, the incidence of rubella has declined dramatically in high-income countries. Recent large-scale mumps outbreaks, one of the components in the combined measles-mumps-rubella vaccine, occurring in countries throughout Europe with high vaccination coverage, provide evidence of pathogen-specific waning of vaccine-induced immunity and primary vaccine failure. In addition, recent measles outbreaks affecting populations with suboptimal vaccination coverages stress the importance of maintaining high vaccination coverages. In this paper, we focus on the assessment of rubella outbreak risk using a previously developed method to identify geographic regions of high outbreak potential. The methodology relies on 2006 rubella seroprevalence data and vaccination coverage data from Belgium and information on primary and secondary vaccine failure obtained from extensive literature reviews. We estimated the rubella outbreak risk in Belgium to be low, however maintaining high levels of immunisation and surveillance are of utmost importance to avoid future outbreaks.

How will the MMR universal mass vaccination change the epidemiologic pattern of mumps? A 2012 Italian serosurvey

To investigate the changes in the epidemiologic pattern of mumps, we carried out a serosurvey among young adults from Apulia, Italy. A convenience sample of 1,764 blood donors were enrolled in 2012: 93.4% (95% confidence interval, 92.1-94.5) showed a positive antimumps immunoglobulin G titre, geometric mean titer was 2.05. Results were consistent with previously published data on the immunogenicity of mumps vaccine but showed a lack of immunity (10% of people aged 18-26 years susceptible for mumps). Future research must be focused on the long-time immunogenicity of the mumps vaccine.

Persistence of rubella and mumps antibodies, following changes in the recommended age for the second dose of MMR vaccine in Portugal

In Portugal, the recommended age for the second dose of MMR (MMR2) was changed from 10–13 years to 5–6 years for those born in 1994 and afterwards. This study aimed to assess if MMR schedule and time elapsed from the last dose are associated with the concentration of rubella and mumps IgG antibodies. Three Portuguese birth cohorts (convenience samples) were selected for this study (66, 59 and 41 participants born respectively in 1990–1993, 1994–1995 and 2001–2003). Geometric mean concentrations (GMC) for mumps IgG were respectively 36, 30 and 38 RU/ml (P = 0·236) and for rubella IgG were 18, 20 and 17 IU/ml (P = 0·641). For both specific antibodies, no differences were observed with time since MMR2. Receiving MMR2 at 5–6 or 10–13 years was not associated with concentration of both antibodies. The GMC of rubella IgG was lower in males (P = 0·029). Taking into account previous evidence and the logistics needed to change vaccination schedules, it seems reasonable that sustaining very high coverage with two doses of MMR is currently the most pragmatic way to control mumps and rubella rather than any changes to the schedule.

Susceptibility to measles, mumps, and rubella in 5-year-old children in Flanders, Belgium

The second dose of an MMR vaccine is a catch up for persons who did not receive the first dose or for primary vaccine failures. Catch up doses can be scheduled according to convenience into the program of the country. The second MMR dose is often administered at the age of 5 years, before school entry. Some countries chose to implement the second dose at the age of 10-13 years, as is the case for Belgium. The here presented long-term follow-up of a cohort of children, set up originally to analyze maternal antibodies against vaccine preventable diseases, offers a unique opportunity to evaluate ad interim the current long-interval MMR vaccination schedule in Belgium. After 1 MMR dose at 12 months of age, rubella immunity is almost intact at 5 years of age (94.5 % is seropositive), measles seropositivity scores 86.8 %, and mumps 32 %, measured with ELISA. A seroneutralization (SN) test for mumps antibodies reveals much higher seropositivity rates (88 %). Using a regression model on the log (IgG) titer for all antigens, no influence was found from any of the studied variables, except for girls who had a significantly higher rubella IgG titer (p=0.002) compared to boys.

CONCLUSION

The data show considerable susceptibility to mumps and measles in 5-year-old children, confirming a previously conducted seroprevalence study (2006). Both advantages and disadvantages of shortening or enlarging the vaccine schedule are discussed.

Assessing the risk of measles resurgence in a highly vaccinated population: Belgium anno 2013

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