Shared Genomic Variants: Identification of Transmission Routes Using Pathogen Deep-Sequence Data

JUNIPER: Reconstructing Transmission Events from Next-Generation Sequencing Data at Scale

Transmission reconstruction-the inference of who infects whom in disease outbreaks-offers critical insights into how pathogens spread and provides opportunities for targeted control measures. We developed JUNIPER (Joint Underlying Network Inference for Phylogenetic and Epidemiological Reconstructions), a highly-scalable pathogen outbreak reconstruction tool that incorporates intrahost variation, incomplete sampling, and algorithmic parallelization. Central to JUNIPER is a statistical model for within-host variant frequencies observed by next generation sequencing, which we validated on a dataset of over 160,000 deep-sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Combining this within-host variation model with population-level evolutionary and transmission models, we developed a method for inferring phylogenies and transmission trees simultaneously. We benchmarked JUNIPER on computer-generated and real outbreaks in which transmission links were known or epidemiologically confirmed. We demonstrated JUNIPER's real-world utility on two large-scale datasets: over 1,500 bovine H5N1 cases and over 13,000 human COVID-19 cases. Based on these analyses, we quantified the elevated H5N1 transmission rates in California and identified high-confidence transmission events, and demonstrated the efficacy of vaccination for reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. By overcoming computational and methodological limitations in existing outbreak reconstruction tools, JUNIPER provides a robust framework for studying pathogen spread at scale.

JUNIPER: Reconstructing Transmission Events from Next-Generation Sequencing Data at Scale

Transmission reconstruction--the inference of who infects whom in disease outbreaks--offers critical insights into how pathogens spread and provides opportunities for targeted control measures. We developed JUNIPER (Joint Underlying Network Inference for Phylogenetic and Epidemiological Reconstructions), a highly-scalable pathogen outbreak reconstruction tool that incorporates intrahost variation, incomplete sampling, and algorithmic parallelization. Central to JUNIPER is a statistical model for within-host variant frequencies observed by next generation sequencing, which we validated on a dataset of over 160,000 deep-sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Combining this within-host variation model with population-level evolutionary and transmission models, we developed a method for inferring phylogenies and transmission trees simultaneously. We benchmarked JUNIPER on computer-generated and real outbreaks in which transmission links were known or epidemiologically confirmed. We demonstrated JUNIPER's real-world utility on two large-scale datasets: over 1,500 bovine H5N1 cases and over 13,000 human COVID-19 cases. Based on these analyses, we quantified the elevated H5N1 transmission rates in California and identified high-confidence transmission events, and demonstrated the efficacy of vaccination for reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. By overcoming computational and methodological limitations in existing outbreak reconstruction tools, JUNIPER provides a robust framework for studying pathogen spread at scale.

Signatures of transmission in within-host M. tuberculosis variation

Background

Because M. tuberculosis evolves slowly, transmission clusters often contain multiple individuals with identical consensus genomes, making it difficult to reconstruct transmission chains. Finding additional sources of shared M. tuberculosis variation could help overcome this problem. Previous studies have reported M. tuberculosis diversity within infected individuals; however, whether within-host variation improves transmission inferences remains unclear.

Methods

To evaluate the transmission information present in within-host M. tuberculosis variation, we re-analyzed publicly available sequence data from three household transmission studies, using household membership as a proxy for transmission linkage between donor-recipient pairs.

Findings

We found moderate levels of minority variation present in M. tuberculosis sequence data from cultured isolates that varied significantly across studies (mean: 6, 7, and 170 minority variants above a 1% minor allele frequency threshold, outside of PE/PPE genes). Isolates from household members shared more minority variants than did isolates from unlinked individuals in the three studies (mean 98 shared minority variants vs. 10; 0.8 vs. 0.2, and 0.7 vs. 0.2, respectively). Shared within-host variation was significantly associated with household membership (OR: 1.51 [1.30,1.71], for one standard deviation increase in shared minority variants). Models that included shared within-host variation improved the accuracy of predicting household membership in all three studies as compared to models without within-host variation (AUC: 0.95 versus 0.92, 0.99 versus 0.95, and 0.93 versus 0.91).

Interpretation

Within-host M. tuberculosis variation persists through culture and could enhance the resolution of transmission inferences. The substantial differences in minority variation recovered across studies highlights the need to optimize approaches to recover and incorporate within-host variation into automated phylogenetic and transmission inference.

Funding

NIAID: 5K01AI173385.

Inferring bacterial transmission dynamics using deep sequencing genomic surveillance data

Identifying and interrupting transmission chains is important for controlling infectious diseases. One way to identify transmission pairs - two hosts in which infection was transmitted from one to the other - is using the variation of the pathogen within each single host (within-host variation). However, the role of such variation in transmission is understudied due to a lack of experimental and clinical datasets that capture pathogen diversity in both donor and recipient hosts. In this work, we assess the utility of deep-sequenced genomic surveillance (where genomic regions are sequenced hundreds to thousands of times) using a mouse transmission model involving controlled spread of the pathogenic bacterium Citrobacter rodentium from infected to naïve female animals. We observe that within-host single nucleotide variants (iSNVs) are maintained over multiple transmission steps and present a model for inferring the likelihood that a given pair of sequenced samples are linked by transmission. In this work we show that, beyond the presence and absence of within-host variants, differences arising in the relative abundance of iSNVs (allelic frequency) can infer transmission pairs more precisely. Our approach further highlights the critical role bottlenecks play in reserving the within-host diversity during transmission.

Inferring Viral Transmission Pathways from Within-Host Variation

Genome sequencing can offer critical insight into pathogen spread in viral outbreaks, but existing transmission inference methods use simplistic evolutionary models and only incorporate a portion of available genetic data. Here, we develop a robust evolutionary model for transmission reconstruction that tracks the genetic composition of within-host viral populations over time and the lineages transmitted between hosts. We confirm that our model reliably describes within-host variant frequencies in a dataset of 134,682 SARS-CoV-2 deep-sequenced genomes from Massachusetts, USA. We then demonstrate that our reconstruction approach infers transmissions more accurately than two leading methods on synthetic data, as well as in a controlled outbreak of bovine respiratory syncytial virus and an epidemiologically-investigated SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in South Africa. Finally, we apply our transmission reconstruction tool to 5,692 outbreaks among the 134,682 Massachusetts genomes. Our methods and results demonstrate the utility of within-host variation for transmission inference of SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogens, and provide an adaptable mathematical framework for tracking within-host evolution.

P-DOR, an easy-to-use pipeline to reconstruct bacterial outbreaks using genomics

SUMMARY

Bacterial Healthcare-Associated Infections (HAIs) are a major threat worldwide, which can be counteracted by establishing effective infection control measures, guided by constant surveillance and timely epidemiological investigations. Genomics is crucial in modern epidemiology but lacks standard methods and user-friendly software, accessible to users without a strong bioinformatics proficiency. To overcome these issues we developed P-DOR, a novel tool for rapid bacterial outbreak characterization. P-DOR accepts genome assemblies as input, it automatically selects a background of publicly available genomes using k-mer distances and adds it to the analysis dataset before inferring a Single-Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP)-based phylogeny. Epidemiological clusters are identified considering the phylogenetic tree topology and SNP distances. By analyzing the SNP-distance distribution, the user can gauge the correct threshold. Patient metadata can be inputted as well, to provide a spatio-temporal representation of the outbreak. The entire pipeline is fast and scalable and can be also run on low-end computers.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

P-DOR is implemented in Python3 and R and can be installed using conda environments. It is available from GitHub https://github.com/SteMIDIfactory/P-DOR under the GPL-3.0 license.

Graph-Based Reconstruction and Analysis of Disease Transmission Networks Using Viral Genomic Data

Understanding the patterns of viral disease transmissions helps establish public health policies and aids in controlling and ending a disease outbreak. Classical methods for studying disease transmission dynamics that rely on epidemiological data, such as times of sample collection and duration of exposure intervals, struggle to provide desired insight due to limited informativeness of such data. A more precise characterization of disease transmissions may be acquired from sequencing data that reveal genetic distance between viral genomes in patient samples. Indeed, genetic distance between viral strains present in hosts contains valuable information about transmission history, thus motivating the design of methods that rely on genomic data to reconstruct a directed disease transmission network, detect transmission clusters, and identify significant network nodes (e.g., super-spreaders). In this article, we present a novel end-to-end framework for the analysis of viral transmissions utilizing viral genomic (sequencing) data. The proposed framework groups infected hosts into transmission clusters based on the reconstructed viral strains infecting them; the genetic distance between a pair of hosts is calculated using Earth Mover's Distance, and further used to infer transmission direction between the hosts. To quantify the significance of a host in the transmission network, the importance score is calculated by a graph convolutional autoencoder. The viral transmission network is represented by a directed minimum spanning tree utilizing the Edmond's algorithm modified to incorporate constraints on the importance scores of the hosts. The proposed framework outperforms state-of-the-art techniques for the analysis of viral transmission dynamics in several experiments on semiexperimental as well as experimental data.

Novel Network Method Major Minor Variation Clustering Enables Identification of Poliovirus Clusters with High-Resolution Linkages

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative uses an outbreak response protocol that defines type 2 Sabin or Sabin-like virus as those with 0-5 nucleotides diverging from their parental strain in the complete VP1 genomic region. Sabin or Sabin-like viruses share highly similar genome sequences, regardless of their origin. Thus, it is challenging to distinguish viruses at a higher resolution to detect polio clusters or trace sources for local transmissions of viruses at an early stage. To identify type 2 Sabin or Sabin-like sources and improve our ability to map viral sources to campaigns during the polio endgame, we investigated the feasibility of a new method for genetic sequence analysis. We named the method Major Minor Variation Clustering (MMVC), which uses a network model to simultaneously incorporate sequence similarity in major and minor variants in addition to onset dates to detect fine-scale polio clusters. Each identified cluster represents a collection of sequences that are highly similar in both major and minor variants, enabling the discovery of new links between viruses. By applying the method to a published data set collected in Nigeria during 2009-2012, we found that clusters identified using this method have several improvements over clusters derived from a phylogenetic tree approach. Integrative data analysis reveals that sequences in the same cluster have greater genomic similarities and better agreement with onset dates. As a complement to current phylogenetic tree approaches, MMVC has the potential to improve epidemiological surveillance and investigation precision to guide polio eradication.

Patterns of within-host spread of Chlamydia trachomatis between vagina, endocervix and rectum revealed by comparative genomic analysis

Introduction

Chlamydia trachomatis, a gram-negative obligate intracellular bacterium, commonly causes sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Little is known about C. trachomatis transmission within the host, which is important for understanding disease epidemiology and progression.

Methods

We used RNA-bait enrichment and whole-genome sequencing to compare rectal, vaginal and endocervical samples collected at the same time from 26 study participants who attended Fijian Ministry of Health and Medical Services clinics and tested positive for C. trachomatis at each anatomic site.

Results

The 78 C. trachomatis genomes from participants resolved into two major clades of the C. trachomatis phylogeny (the "prevalent urogenital and anorectal" clade and "non-prevalent urogenital and anorectal" clade). For 21 participants, genome sequences were almost identical in each anatomic site. For the other five participants, two distinct C. trachomatis strains were present in different sites; in two cases, the vaginal sample was a mixture of strains.

Discussion

The absence of large numbers of fixed SNPs between C. trachomatis genomes within many of the participants could indicate recent acquisition of infection prior to the clinic visit without sufficient time to accumulate significant genetic variation in different body sites. This model suggests that many C. trachomatis infections may be resolved relatively quickly in the Fijian population, possibly reflecting common prescription or over-the-counter antibiotics usage.

Challenges in Harnessing Shared Within-Host Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variation for Transmission Inference

Background

The limited variation observed among severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) consensus sequences makes it difficult to reconstruct transmission linkages in outbreak settings. Previous studies have recovered variation within individual SARS-CoV-2 infections but have not yet measured the informativeness of within-host variation for transmission inference.

Methods

We performed tiled amplicon sequencing on 307 SARS-CoV-2 samples, including 130 samples from 32 individuals in 14 households and 47 longitudinally sampled individuals, from 4 prospective studies with household membership data, a proxy for transmission linkage.

Results

Consensus sequences from households had limited diversity (mean pairwise distance, 3.06 single-nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs]; range, 0-40). Most (83.1%, 255 of 307) samples harbored at least 1 intrahost single-nucleotide variant ([iSNV] median, 117; interquartile range [IQR], 17-208), above a minor allele frequency threshold of 0.2%. Pairs in the same household shared significantly more iSNVs (mean, 1.20 iSNVs; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.39) than did pairs in different households infected with the same viral clade (mean, 0.31 iSNVs; 95% CI, .28-.34), a signal that decreases with increasingly stringent minor allele frequency thresholds. The number of shared iSNVs was significantly associated with an increased odds of household membership (adjusted odds ratio, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.23-1.49). However, the poor concordance of iSNVs detected across sequencing replicates (24.8% and 35.0% above a 0.2% and 1% threshold) confirms technical concerns that current sequencing and bioinformatic workflows do not consistently recover low-frequency within-host variants.

Conclusions

Shared within-host variation may augment the information in consensus sequences for predicting transmission linkages. Improving sensitivity and specificity of within-host variant identification will improve the informativeness of within-host variation.

Patterns of within-host spread of Chlamydia trachomatis between vagina, endocervix and rectum revealed by comparative genomic analysis

Chlamydia trachomatis , a gram-negative obligate intracellular bacterium, commonly causes sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Little is known about C. trachomatis transmission within the host, which is important for understanding disease epidemiology and progression. We used RNA-bait enrichment and whole-genome sequencing to compare rectal, vaginal and endocervical samples collected at the same time from 26 study participants who attended Fijian Ministry of Health and Medical Services clinics and tested positive for C. trachomatis at each anatomic site. The 78 C. trachomatis genomes from participants were from two major clades of the C. trachomatis phylogeny (the "prevalent urogenital and anorecta"l clade and "non-prevalent urogenital and anorectal" clade). For 21 participants, genome sequences were almost identical in each anatomic site. For the other five participants, two distinct C. trachomatis strains were present in different sites; in two cases, the vaginal sample was a mixture of strains. The absence of large numbers of fixed SNPs between C. trachomatis strains within many of the participants could indicate recent acquisition of infection prior to the clinic visit without sufficient time to accumulate significant variation in the different body sites. This model suggests that many C. trachomatis infections may be resolved relatively quickly in the Fijian population, possibly reflecting common prescription or over-the-counter antibiotics usage.

Importance

Chlamydia trachomatis is a bacterial pathogen that causes millions of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) annually across the globe. Because C. trachomatis lives inside human cells, it has historically been hard to study. We know little about how the bacterium spreads between body sites. Here, samples from 26 study participants who had simultaneous infections in their vagina, rectum and endocervix were genetically analyzed using an improved method to extract C. trachomatis DNA directly from clinical samples for genome sequencing. By analyzing patterns of mutations in the genomes, we found that 21 participants shared very similar C. trachomatis strains in all three anatomic sites, suggesting recent infection and spread. For five participants two C. trachomatis strains were evident, indicating multiple infections. This study is significant in that improved enrichment methods for genome sequencing provides robust data to genetically trace patterns of C. trachomatis infection and transmission within an individual for epidemiologic and pathogenesis interrogations.

Diagnosis of helminths depends on worm fecundity and the distribution of parasites within hosts

Helminth transmission and morbidity are dependent on the number of mature parasites within a host; however, observing adult worms is impossible for many natural infections. An outstanding challenge is therefore relating routine diagnostics, such as faecal egg counts, to the underlying worm burden. This relationship is complicated by density-dependent fecundity (egg output per worm reduces due to crowding at high burdens) and the skewed distribution of parasites (majority of helminths aggregated in a small fraction of hosts). We address these questions for the carcinogenic liver fluke Opisthorchis viverrini, which infects approximately 10 million people across Southeast Asia, by analysing five epidemiological surveys (n = 641) where adult flukes were recovered. Using a mechanistic model, we show that parasite fecundity varies between populations, with surveys from Thailand and Laos demonstrating distinct patterns of egg output and density-dependence. As the probability of observing faecal eggs increases with the number of mature parasites within a host, we quantify diagnostic sensitivity as a function of the worm burden and find that greater than 50% of cases are misdiagnosed as false negative in communities close to elimination. Finally, we demonstrate that the relationship between observed prevalence from routine diagnostics and true prevalence is nonlinear and strongly influenced by parasite aggregation.

SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Diversity in Households Highlights the Challenges of Sequence-Based Transmission Inference

The reliability of sequence-based inference of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission is not clear. Sequence data from infections among household members can define the expected genomic diversity of a virus along a defined transmission chain. SARS-CoV-2 cases were identified prospectively among 2,369 participants in 706 households. Specimens with a reverse transcription-PCR cycle threshold of ≤30 underwent whole-genome sequencing. Intrahost single-nucleotide variants (iSNV) were identified at a ≥5% frequency. Phylogenetic trees were used to evaluate the relationship of household and community sequences. There were 178 SARS-CoV-2 cases in 706 households. Among 147 specimens sequenced, 106 yielded a whole-genome consensus with coverage suitable for identifying iSNV. Twenty-six households had sequences from multiple cases within 14 days. Consensus sequences were indistinguishable among cases in 15 households, while 11 had ≥1 consensus sequence that differed by 1 to 2 mutations. Sequences from households and the community were often interspersed on phylogenetic trees. Identification of iSNV improved inference in 2 of 15 households with indistinguishable consensus sequences and in 6 of 11 with distinct ones. In multiple-infection households, whole-genome consensus sequences differed by 0 to 1 mutations. Identification of shared iSNV occasionally resolved linkage, but the low genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 limits the utility of "sequence-only" transmission inference. IMPORTANCE We performed whole-genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 from prospectively identified cases in three longitudinal household cohorts. In a majority of multi-infection households, SARS-CoV-2 consensus sequences were indistinguishable, and they differed by 1 to 2 mutations in the rest. Importantly, even with modest genomic surveillance of the community (3 to 5% of cases sequenced), it was not uncommon to find community sequences interspersed with household sequences on phylogenetic trees. Identification of shared minority variants only occasionally resolved these ambiguities in transmission linkage. Overall, the low genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 limits the utility of "sequence-only" transmission inference. Our work highlights the need to carefully consider both epidemiologic linkage and sequence data to define transmission chains in households, hospitals, and other transmission settings.

Within-host genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in the context of large-scale hospital-associated genomic surveillance

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in extensive surveillance of the genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2. Sequencing data generated as part of these efforts can also capture the diversity of the SARS-CoV-2 virus populations replicating within infected individuals. To assess this within-host diversity of SARS-CoV-2 we quantified low frequency (minor) variants from deep sequence data of thousands of clinical samples collected by a large urban hospital system over the course of a year. Using a robust analytical pipeline to control for technical artefacts, we observe that at comparable viral loads, specimens from patients hospitalized due to COVID-19 had a greater number of minor variants than samples from outpatients. Since individuals with highly diverse viral populations could be disproportionate drivers of new viral lineages in the patient population, these results suggest that transmission control should pay special attention to patients with severe or protracted disease to prevent the spread of novel variants.

Airborne Transmission and Control of Influenza and Other Respiratory Pathogens

Despite uncertainty about the specific transmission risk posed by airborne, spray-borne, and contact modes for influenza, SARS-CoV-2, and other respiratory viruses, there is evidence that airborne transmission via inhalation is important and often predominates. An early study of influenza transmission via airborne challenge quantified infectious doses as low as one influenza virion leading to illness characterized by cough and sore throat. Other studies that challenged via intranasal mucosal exposure observed high doses required for similarly symptomatic respiratory illnesses. Analysis of the Evaluating Modes of Influenza Transmission (EMIT) influenza human-challenge transmission trial—of 52 H3N2 inoculated viral donors and 75 sero-susceptible exposed individuals—quantifies airborne transmission and provides context and insight into methodology related to airborne transmission. Advances in aerosol sampling and epidemiologic studies examining the role of masking, and engineering-based air hygiene strategies provide a foundation for understanding risk and directions for new work.

Mutation of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Implications for Using Whole-Genome Sequencing for Investigating Recent Tuberculosis Transmission

Tuberculosis (TB) control programs use whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) for detecting and investigating TB case clusters. Existence of few genomic differences between Mtb isolates might indicate TB cases are the result of recent transmission. However, the variable and sometimes long duration of latent infection, combined with uncertainty in the Mtb mutation rate during latency, can complicate interpretation of WGS results. To estimate the association between infection duration and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) accumulation in the Mtb genome, we first analyzed pairwise SNP differences among TB cases from Los Angeles County, California, with strong epidemiologic links. We found that SNP distance alone was insufficient for concluding that cases are linked through recent transmission. Second, we describe a well-characterized cluster of TB cases in California to illustrate the role of genomic data in conclusions regarding recent transmission. Longer presumed latent periods were inconsistently associated with larger SNP differences. Our analyses suggest that WGS alone cannot be used to definitively determine that a case is attributable to recent transmission. Methods for integrating clinical, epidemiologic, and genomic data can guide conclusions regarding the likelihood of recent transmission, providing local public health practitioners with better tools for monitoring and investigating TB transmission.

Methods Combining Genomic and Epidemiological Data in the Reconstruction of Transmission Trees: A Systematic Review

In order to better understand transmission dynamics and appropriately target control and preventive measures, studies have aimed to identify who-infected-whom in actual outbreaks. Numerous reconstruction methods exist, each with their own assumptions, types of data, and inference strategy. Thus, selecting a method can be difficult. Following PRISMA guidelines, we systematically reviewed the literature for methods combing epidemiological and genomic data in transmission tree reconstruction. We identified 22 methods from the 41 selected articles. We defined three families according to how genomic data was handled: a non-phylogenetic family, a sequential phylogenetic family, and a simultaneous phylogenetic family. We discussed methods according to the data needed as well as the underlying sequence mutation, within-host evolution, transmission, and case observation. In the non-phylogenetic family consisting of eight methods, pairwise genetic distances were estimated. In the phylogenetic families, transmission trees were inferred from phylogenetic trees either simultaneously (nine methods) or sequentially (five methods). While a majority of methods (17/22) modeled the transmission process, few (8/22) took into account imperfect case detection. Within-host evolution was generally (7/8) modeled as a coalescent process. These practical and theoretical considerations were highlighted in order to help select the appropriate method for an outbreak.

OUP accepted manuscript

A detailed understanding of how and when severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission occurs is crucial for designing effective prevention measures. Other than contact tracing, genome sequencing provides information to help infer who infected whom. However, the effectiveness of the genomic approach in this context depends on both (high enough) mutation and (low enough) transmission rates. Today, the level of resolution that we can obtain when describing SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks using just genomic information alone remains unclear. In order to answer this question, we sequenced forty-nine SARS-CoV-2 patient samples from ten local clusters in NW Spain for which partial epidemiological information was available and inferred transmission history using genomic variants. Importantly, we obtained high-quality genomic data, sequencing each sample twice and using unique barcodes to exclude cross-sample contamination. Phylogenetic and cluster analyses showed that consensus genomes were generally sufficient to discriminate among independent transmission clusters. However, levels of intrahost variation were low, which prevented in most cases the unambiguous identification of direct transmission events. After filtering out recurrent variants across clusters, the genomic data were generally compatible with the epidemiological information but did not support specific transmission events over possible alternatives. We estimated the effective transmission bottleneck size to be one to two viral particles for sample pairs whose donor–recipient relationship was likely. Our analyses suggest that intrahost genomic variation in SARS-CoV-2 might be generally limited and that homoplasy and recurrent errors complicate identifying shared intrahost variants. Reliable reconstruction of direct SARS-CoV-2 transmission based solely on genomic data seems hindered by a slow mutation rate, potential convergent events, and technical artifacts. Detailed contact tracing seems essential in most cases to study SARS-CoV-2 transmission at high resolution.

Bacterial genomic epidemiology with mixed samples

Genomic epidemiology is a tool for tracing transmission of pathogens based on whole-genome sequencing. We introduce the mGEMS pipeline for genomic epidemiology with plate sweeps representing mixed samples of a target pathogen, opening the possibility to sequence all colonies on selective plates with a single DNA extraction and sequencing step. The pipeline includes the novel mGEMS read binner for probabilistic assignments of sequencing reads, and the scalable pseudoaligner Themisto. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using closely related samples in a nosocomial setting, obtaining results that are comparable to those based on single-colony picks. Our results lend firm support to more widespread consideration of genomic epidemiology with mixed infection samples.

Equitable data sharing in epidemics and pandemics

BACKGROUND

Rapid data sharing can maximize the utility of data. In epidemics and pandemics like Zika, Ebola, and COVID-19, the case for such practices seems especially urgent and warranted. Yet rapidly sharing data widely has previously generated significant concerns related to equity. The continued lack of understanding and guidance on equitable data sharing raises the following questions: Should data sharing in epidemics and pandemics primarily advance utility, or should it advance equity as well? If so, what norms comprise equitable data sharing in epidemics and pandemics? Do these norms address the equity-related concerns raised by researchers, data providers, and other stakeholders? What tensions must be balanced between equity and other values?

METHODS

To explore these questions, we undertook a systematic scoping review of the literature on data sharing in epidemics and pandemics and thematically analyzed identified literature for its discussion of ethical values, norms, concerns, and tensions, with a particular (but not exclusive) emphasis on equity. We wanted to both understand how equity in data sharing is being conceptualized and draw out other important values and norms for data sharing in epidemics and pandemics.

RESULTS

We found that values of utility, equity, solidarity, and reciprocity were described, and we report their associated norms, including researcher recognition; rapid, real-time sharing; capacity development; and fair benefits to data generators, data providers, and source countries. The value of utility and its associated norms were discussed substantially more than others. Tensions between utility norms (e.g., rapid, real-time sharing) and equity norms (e.g., researcher recognition, equitable access) were raised.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found support for equity being advanced by data sharing in epidemics and pandemics. However, norms for equitable data sharing in epidemics and pandemics require further development, particularly in relation to power sharing and participatory approaches prioritizing inclusion. Addressing structural inequities in the wider global health landscape is also needed to achieve equitable data sharing in epidemics and pandemics.

Quantifying transmission dynamics of acute hepatitis C virus infections in a heterogeneous population using sequence data

Opioid substitution and syringes exchange programs have drastically reduced hepatitis C virus (HCV) spread in France but HCV sexual transmission in men having sex with men (MSM) has recently arisen as a significant public health concern. The fact that the virus is transmitting in a heterogeneous population, with different transmission routes, makes prevalence and incidence rates poorly informative. However, additional insights can be gained by analyzing virus phylogenies inferred from dated genetic sequence data. By combining a phylodynamics approach based on Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and an original transmission model, we estimate key epidemiological parameters of an ongoing HCV epidemic among MSMs in Lyon (France). We show that this new epidemic is largely independent of the previously observed non-MSM HCV epidemics and that its doubling time is ten times lower (0.44 years versus 4.37 years). These results have practical implications for HCV control and illustrate the additional information provided by virus genomics in public health.

Leveraging Pathogen Sequence and Contact Tracing Data to Enhance Vaccine Trials in Emerging Epidemics

INTRODUCTION

Advance planning of vaccine trials conducted during outbreaks increases our ability to rapidly define the efficacy and potential impact of a vaccine. Vaccine efficacy against infectiousness (VEI) is an important measure for understanding a vaccine's full impact, yet it is currently not identifiable in many trial designs because it requires knowledge of infectors' vaccination status. Recent advances in genomics have improved our ability to reconstruct transmission networks. We aim to assess if augmenting trials with pathogen sequence and contact tracing data can permit them to estimate VEI.

METHODS

We develop a transmission model with a vaccine trial in an outbreak setting, incorporate pathogen sequence data and contact tracing data, and assign probabilities to likely infectors. We then propose and evaluate the performance of an estimator of VEI.

RESULTS

We find that under perfect knowledge of infector-infectee pairs, we are able to accurately estimate VEI. Use of sequence data results in imperfect reconstruction of transmission networks, biasing estimates of VEI towards the null, with approaches using deep sequence data performing better than approaches using consensus sequence data. Inclusion of contact tracing data reduces the bias.

CONCLUSION

Pathogen genomics enhance identifiability of VEI, but imperfect transmission network reconstruction biases estimate toward the null and limits our ability to detect VEI. Given the consistent direction of the bias, estimates obtained from trials using these methods will provide lower bounds on the true VEI. A combination of sequence and epidemiologic data results in the most accurate estimates, underscoring the importance of contact tracing.

The within-host evolution of antimicrobial resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Tuberculosis (TB) has been responsible for the greatest number of human deaths due to an infectious disease in general, and due to antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in particular. The etiological agents of human TB are a closely-related group of human-adapted bacteria that belong to the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC). Understanding how MTBC populations evolve within-host may allow for improved TB treatment and control strategies. In this review, we highlight recent works that have shed light on how AMR evolves in MTBC populations within individual patients. We discuss the role of heteroresistance in AMR evolution, and review the bacterial, patient and environmental factors that likely modulate the magnitude of heteroresistance within-host. We further highlight recent works on the dynamics of MTBC genetic diversity within-host, and discuss how spatial substructures in patients' lungs, spatiotemporal heterogeneity in antimicrobial concentrations and phenotypic drug tolerance likely modulates the dynamics of MTBC genetic diversity in patients during treatment. We note the general characteristics that are shared between how the MTBC and other bacterial pathogens evolve in humans, and highlight the characteristics unique to the MTBC.

Patterns of within-host genetic diversity in SARS-CoV-2

Monitoring the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and reconstructing transmission chains has become a major public health focus for many governments around the world. The modest mutation rate and rapid transmission of SARS-CoV-2 prevents the reconstruction of transmission chains from consensus genome sequences, but within-host genetic diversity could theoretically help identify close contacts. Here we describe the patterns of within-host diversity in 1181 SARS-CoV-2 samples sequenced to high depth in duplicate. 95.1% of samples show within-host mutations at detectable allele frequencies. Analyses of the mutational spectra revealed strong strand asymmetries suggestive of damage or RNA editing of the plus strand, rather than replication errors, dominating the accumulation of mutations during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Within- and between-host diversity show strong purifying selection, particularly against nonsense mutations. Recurrent within-host mutations, many of which coincide with known phylogenetic homoplasies, display a spectrum and patterns of purifying selection more suggestive of mutational hotspots than recombination or convergent evolution. While allele frequencies suggest that most samples result from infection by a single lineage, we identify multiple putative examples of co-infection. Integrating these results into an epidemiological inference framework, we find that while sharing of within-host variants between samples could help the reconstruction of transmission chains, mutational hotspots and rare cases of superinfection can confound these analyses.

Sars-CoV-2 Genome Sequencing Methods Differ In Their Ability To Detect Variants From Low Viral Load Samples

SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance has been vital in understanding the spread of COVID-19, the emergence of viral escape mutants and variants of concern. However, low viral loads in clinical specimens affect variant calling for phylogenetic analyses and detection of low frequency variants, important in uncovering infection transmission chains. We systematically evaluated three widely adopted SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequencing methods for their sensitivity, specificity, and ability to reliably detect low frequency variants. Our analyses highlight that the ARTIC v3 protocol consistently displays high sensitivity for generating complete genomes at low viral loads compared with the probe-based Illumina respiratory viral oligo panel, and a pooled long-amplicon method. We show substantial variability in the number and location of low-frequency variants detected using the three methods, highlighting the importance of selecting appropriate methods to obtain high quality sequence data from low viral load samples for public health and genomic surveillance purposes.

Towards a more healthy conservation paradigm: integrating disease and molecular ecology to aid biological conservation†

Parasites, and the diseases they cause, are important from an ecological and evolutionary perspective because they can negatively affect host fitness and can regulate host populations. Consequently, conservation biology has long recognized the vital role that parasites can play in the process of species endangerment and recovery. However, we are only beginning to understand how deeply parasites are embedded in ecological systems, and there is a growing recognition of the important ways in which parasites affect ecosystem structure and function. Thus, there is an urgent need to revisit how parasites are viewed from a conservation perspective and broaden the role that disease ecology plays in conservation-related research and outcomes. This review broadly focusses on the role that disease ecology can play in biological conservation. Our review specifically emphasizes on how the integration of tools and analytical approaches associated with both disease and molecular ecology can be leveraged to aid conservation biology. Our review first concentrates on disease-mediated extinctions and wildlife epidemics. We then focus on elucidating how host–parasite interactions has improved our understanding of the eco-evolutionary dynamics affecting hosts at the individual, population, community and ecosystem scales. We believe that the role of parasites as drivers and indicators of ecosystem health is especially an exciting area of research that has the potential to fundamentally alter our view of parasites and their role in biological conservation. The review concludes with a broad overview of the current and potential applications of modern genomic tools in disease ecology to aid biological conservation.

Precision Tracing of Household Dengue Spread Using Inter- and Intra-Host Viral Variation Data, Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand

Dengue control approaches are best informed by granular spatial epidemiology of these viruses, yet reconstruction of inter- and intra-household transmissions is limited when analyzing case count, serologic, or genomic consensus sequence data. To determine viral spread on a finer spatial scale, we extended phylogenomic discrete trait analyses to reconstructions of house-to-house transmissions within a prospective cluster study in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. For additional resolution and transmission confirmation, we mapped dengue intra-host single nucleotide variants on the taxa of these time-scaled phylogenies. This approach confirmed 19 household transmissions and revealed that dengue disperses an average of 70 m per day between households in these communities. We describe an evolutionary biology framework for the resolution of dengue transmissions that cannot be differentiated based on epidemiologic and consensus genome data alone. This framework can be used as a public health tool to inform control approaches and enable precise tracing of dengue transmissions.

SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity and the implications for qRT-PCR diagnostics and transmission

The COVID-19 pandemic has sparked an urgent need to uncover the underlying biology of this devastating disease. Though RNA viruses mutate more rapidly than DNA viruses, there are a relatively small number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that differentiate the main SARS-CoV-2 lineages that have spread throughout the world. In this study, we investigated 129 RNA-seq data sets and 6928 consensus genomes to contrast the intra-host and inter-host diversity of SARS-CoV-2. Our analyses yielded three major observations. First, the mutational profile of SARS-CoV-2 highlights intra-host single nucleotide variant (iSNV) and SNP similarity, albeit with differences in C > U changes. Second, iSNV and SNP patterns in SARS-CoV-2 are more similar to MERS-CoV than SARS-CoV-1. Third, a significant fraction of insertions and deletions contribute to the genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2. Altogether, our findings provide insight into SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity, inform the design of detection tests, and highlight the potential of iSNVs for tracking the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Temporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 mutation accumulation within and across infected hosts

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity within infected hosts can provide insight into the generation and spread of new viral variants and may enable high resolution inference of transmission chains. However, little is known about temporal aspects of SARS-CoV-2 intrahost diversity and the extent to which shared diversity reflects convergent evolution as opposed to transmission linkage. Here we use high depth of coverage sequencing to identify within-host genetic variants in 325 specimens from hospitalized COVID-19 patients and infected employees at a single medical center. We validated our variant calling by sequencing defined RNA mixtures and identified viral load as a critical factor in variant identification. By leveraging clinical metadata, we found that intrahost diversity is low and does not vary by time from symptom onset. This suggests that variants will only rarely rise to appreciable frequency prior to transmission. Although there was generally little shared variation across the sequenced cohort, we identified intrahost variants shared across individuals who were unlikely to be related by transmission. These variants did not precede a rise in frequency in global consensus genomes, suggesting that intrahost variants may have limited utility for predicting future lineages. These results provide important context for sequence-based inference in SARS-CoV-2 evolution and epidemiology.

Estimating the relative probability of direct transmission between infectious disease patients

BACKGROUND

Estimating infectious disease parameters such as the serial interval (time between symptom onset in primary and secondary cases) and reproductive number (average number of secondary cases produced by a primary case) are important in understanding infectious disease dynamics. Many estimation methods require linking cases by direct transmission, a difficult task for most diseases.

METHODS

Using a subset of cases with detailed genetic and/or contact investigation data to develop a training set of probable transmission events, we build a model to estimate the relative transmission probability for all case-pairs from demographic, spatial and clinical data. Our method is based on naive Bayes, a machine learning classification algorithm which uses the observed frequencies in the training dataset to estimate the probability that a pair is linked given a set of covariates.

RESULTS

In simulations, we find that the probabilities estimated using genetic distance between cases to define training transmission events are able to distinguish between truly linked and unlinked pairs with high accuracy (area under the receiver operating curve value of 95%). Additionally, only a subset of the cases, 10-50% depending on sample size, need to have detailed genetic data for our method to perform well. We show how these probabilities can be used to estimate the average effective reproductive number and apply our method to a tuberculosis outbreak in Hamburg, Germany.

CONCLUSIONS

Our method is a novel way to infer transmission dynamics in any dataset when only a subset of cases has rich contact investigation and/or genetic data.

How to detect and reduce potential sources of biases in studies of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19

In response to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, public health scientists have produced a large and rapidly expanding body of literature that aims to answer critical questions, such as the proportion of the population in a geographic area that has been infected; the transmissibility of the virus and factors associated with high infectiousness or susceptibility to infection; which groups are the most at risk of infection, morbidity and mortality; and the degree to which antibodies confer protection to re-infection. Observational studies are subject to a number of different biases, including confounding, selection bias, and measurement error, that may threaten their validity or influence the interpretation of their results. To assist in the critical evaluation of a vast body of literature and contribute to future study design, we outline and propose solutions to biases that can occur across different categories of observational studies of COVID-19. We consider potential biases that could occur in five categories of studies: (1) cross-sectional seroprevalence, (2) longitudinal seroprotection, (3) risk factor studies to inform interventions, (4) studies to estimate the secondary attack rate, and (5) studies that use secondary attack rates to make inferences about infectiousness and susceptibility.

Temporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 mutation accumulation within and across infected hosts

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity within infected hosts can provide insight into the generation and spread of new viral variants and may enable high resolution inference of transmission chains. However, little is known about temporal aspects of SARS-CoV-2 intrahost diversity and the extent to which shared diversity reflects convergent evolution as opposed to transmission linkage. Here we use high depth of coverage sequencing to identify within-host genetic variants in 325 specimens from hospitalized COVID-19 patients and infected employees at a single medical center. We validated our variant calling by sequencing defined RNA mixtures and identified a viral load threshold that minimizes false positives. By leveraging clinical metadata, we found that intrahost diversity is low and does not vary by time from symptom onset. This suggests that variants will only rarely rise to appreciable frequency prior to transmission. Although there was generally little shared variation across the sequenced cohort, we identified intrahost variants shared across individuals who were unlikely to be related by transmission. These variants did not precede a rise in frequency in global consensus genomes, suggesting that intrahost variants may have limited utility for predicting future lineages. These results provide important context for sequence-based inference in SARS-CoV-2 evolution and epidemiology.

Analytical validity of nanopore sequencing for rapid SARS-CoV-2 genome analysis

Viral whole-genome sequencing (WGS) provides critical insight into the transmission and evolution of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Long-read sequencing devices from Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT) promise significant improvements in turnaround time, portability and cost, compared to established short-read sequencing platforms for viral WGS (e.g., Illumina). However, adoption of ONT sequencing for SARS-CoV-2 surveillance has been limited due to common concerns around sequencing accuracy. To address this, here we perform viral WGS with ONT and Illumina platforms on 157 matched SARS-CoV-2-positive patient specimens and synthetic RNA controls, enabling rigorous evaluation of analytical performance. We report that, despite the elevated error rates observed in ONT sequencing reads, highly accurate consensus-level sequence determination was achieved, with single nucleotide variants (SNVs) detected at >99% sensitivity and >99% precision above a minimum ~60-fold coverage depth, thereby ensuring suitability for SARS-CoV-2 genome analysis. ONT sequencing also identified a surprising diversity of structural variation within SARS-CoV-2 specimens that were supported by evidence from short-read sequencing on matched samples. However, ONT sequencing failed to accurately detect short indels and variants at low read-count frequencies. This systematic evaluation of analytical performance for SARS-CoV-2 WGS will facilitate widespread adoption of ONT sequencing within local, national and international COVID-19 public health initiatives.

Hidden genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2: implications for qRT-PCR diagnostics and transmission

The COVID-19 pandemic has sparked an urgent need to uncover the underlying biology of this devastating disease. Though RNA viruses mutate more rapidly than DNA viruses, there are a relatively small number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that differentiate the main SARS-CoV-2 clades that have spread throughout the world. In this study, we investigated over 7,000 SARS-CoV-2 datasets to unveil both intrahost and interhost diversity. Our intrahost and interhost diversity analyses yielded three major observations. First, the mutational profile of SARS-CoV-2 highlights iSNV and SNP similarity, albeit with high variability in C>T changes. Second, iSNV and SNP patterns in SARS-CoV-2 are more similar to MERS-CoV than SARS-CoV-1. Third, a significant fraction of small indels fuel the genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2. Altogether, our findings provide insight into SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity, inform the design of detection tests, and highlight the potential of iSNVs for tracking the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Viral genomics in Ebola virus research

Filoviruses such as Ebola virus continue to pose a substantial health risk to humans. Advances in the sequencing and functional characterization of both pathogen and host genomes have provided a wealth of knowledge to clinicians, epidemiologists and public health responders during outbreaks of high-consequence viral disease. Here, we describe how genomics has been historically used to investigate Ebola virus disease outbreaks and how new technologies allow for rapid, large-scale data generation at the point of care. We highlight how genomics extends beyond consensus-level sequencing of the virus to include intra-host viral transcriptomics and the characterization of host responses in acute and persistently infected patients. Similar genomics techniques can also be applied to the characterization of non-human primate animal models and to known natural reservoirs of filoviruses, and metagenomic sequencing can be the key to the discovery of novel filoviruses. Finally, we outline the importance of reverse genetics systems that can swiftly characterize filoviruses as soon as their genome sequences are available.

Phylogenetic interpretation during outbreaks requires caution

How viruses are related, and how they have evolved and spread over time, can be investigated using phylogenetics. Here, we set out how genomic analyses should be used during an epidemic and propose that phylogenetic insights from the early stages of an outbreak should heed all of the available epidemiological information.

Inferring Transmission Bottleneck Size from Viral Sequence Data Using a Novel Haplotype Reconstruction Method

Viral populations undergo a repeated cycle of within-host growth followed by transmission. Viral evolution is affected by each stage of this cycle. The number of viral particles transmitted from one host to another, known as the transmission bottleneck, is an important factor in determining how the evolutionary dynamics of the population play out, restricting the extent to which the evolved diversity of the population can be passed from one host to another. Previous study of viral sequence data has suggested that the transmission bottleneck size for influenza A transmission between human hosts is small. Reevaluating these data using a novel and improved method, we largely confirm this result, albeit that we infer a slightly higher bottleneck size in some cases, of between 1 and 13 virions. While a tight bottleneck operates in human influenza transmission, it is not extreme in nature; some diversity can be meaningfully retained between hosts.

The transmission bottleneck is defined as the number of viral particles that transmit from one host to establish an infection in another. Genome sequence data have been used to evaluate the size of the transmission bottleneck between humans infected with the influenza virus; however, the methods used to make these estimates have some limitations. Specifically, viral allele frequencies, which form the basis of many calculations, may not fully capture a process which involves the transmission of entire viral genomes. Here, we set out a novel approach for inferring viral transmission bottlenecks; our method combines an algorithm for haplotype reconstruction with maximum likelihood methods for bottleneck inference. This approach allows for rapid calculation and performs well when applied to data from simulated transmission events; errors in the haplotype reconstruction step did not adversely affect inferences of the population bottleneck. Applied to data from a previous household transmission study of influenza A infection, we confirm the result that the majority of transmission events involve a small number of viruses, albeit with slightly looser bottlenecks being inferred, with between 1 and 13 particles transmitted in the majority of cases. While influenza A transmission involves a tight population bottleneck, the bottleneck is not so tight as to universally prevent the transmission of within-host viral diversity.

IMPORTANCE Viral populations undergo a repeated cycle of within-host growth followed by transmission. Viral evolution is affected by each stage of this cycle. The number of viral particles transmitted from one host to another, known as the transmission bottleneck, is an important factor in determining how the evolutionary dynamics of the population play out, restricting the extent to which the evolved diversity of the population can be passed from one host to another. Previous study of viral sequence data has suggested that the transmission bottleneck size for influenza A transmission between human hosts is small. Reevaluating these data using a novel and improved method, we largely confirm this result, albeit that we infer a slightly higher bottleneck size in some cases, of between 1 and 13 virions. While a tight bottleneck operates in human influenza transmission, it is not extreme in nature; some diversity can be meaningfully retained between hosts.

Previously undetected super-spreading of Mycobacterium tuberculosis revealed by deep sequencing

Tuberculosis disproportionately affects the Canadian Inuit. To address this, it is imperative we understand transmission dynamics in this population. We investigate whether 'deep' sequencing can provide additional resolution compared to standard sequencing, using a well-characterized outbreak from the Arctic (2011-2012, 50 cases). Samples were sequenced to ~500-1000x and reads were aligned to a novel local reference genome generated with PacBio SMRT sequencing. Consensus and heterogeneous variants were identified and compared across genomes. In contrast with previous genomic analyses using ~50x depth, deep sequencing allowed us to identify a novel super-spreader who likely transmitted to up to 17 other cases during the outbreak (35% of the remaining cases that year). It is increasingly evident that within-host diversity should be incorporated into transmission analyses; deep sequencing may facilitate more accurate detection of super-spreaders and transmission clusters. This has implications not only for TB, but all genomic studies of transmission - regardless of pathogen.

Towards a more healthy conservation paradigm: integrating disease and molecular ecology to aid biological conservation†

Parasites, and the diseases they cause, are important from an ecological and evolutionary perspective because they can negatively affect host fitness and can regulate host populations. Consequently, conservation biology has long recognized the vital role that parasites can play in the process of species endangerment and recovery. However, we are only beginning to understand how deeply parasites are embedded in ecological systems, and there is a growing recognition of the important ways in which parasites affect ecosystem structure and function. Thus, there is an urgent need to revisit how parasites are viewed from a conservation perspective and broaden the role that disease ecology plays in conservation-related research and outcomes. This review broadly focusses on the role that disease ecology can play in biological conservation. Our review specifically emphasizes on how the integration of tools and analytical approaches associated with both disease and molecular ecology can be leveraged to aid conservation biology. Our review first concentrates on disease mediated extinctions and wildlife epidemics. We then focus on elucidating how host-parasite interactions has improved our understanding of the eco-evolutionary dynamics affecting hosts at the individual, population, community and ecosystem scales. We believe that the role of parasites as drivers and indicators of ecosystem health is especially an exciting area of research that has the potential to fundamentally alter our view of parasites and their role in biological conservation. The review concludes with a broad overview of the current and potential applications of modern genomic tools in disease ecology to aid biological conservation.

Improved characterisation of MRSA transmission using within-host bacterial sequence diversity

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) transmission in the hospital setting has been a frequent subject of investigation using bacterial genomes, but previous approaches have not yet fully utilised the extra deductive power provided when multiple pathogen samples are acquired from each host. Here, we used a large dataset of MRSA sequences from multiply-sampled patients to reconstruct colonisation of individuals in a high-transmission setting in a hospital in Thailand. We reconstructed transmission trees for MRSA. We also investigated transmission between anatomical sites on the same individual, finding that this either occurs repeatedly or involves a wide transmission bottleneck. We examined the between-subject bottleneck, finding considerable variation in the amount of diversity transmitted. Finally, we compared our approach to the simpler method of identifying transmission pairs using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) counts. This suggested that the optimum threshold for identifying a pair is 39 SNPs, if sensitivities and specificities are equally weighted.

Long-distance transmission patterns modelled from SNP barcodes of Plasmodium falciparum infections in The Gambia

Malaria has declined significantly in The Gambia and determining transmission dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum can help targeting control interventions towards elimination. This can be inferred from genetic similarity between parasite isolates from different sites and timepoints. Here, we imposed a P. falciparum life cycle time on a genetic distance likelihood model to determine transmission paths from a 54 SNP barcode of 355 isolates. Samples were collected monthly during the 2013 malaria season from six pairs of villages spanning 300 km from western to eastern Gambia. There was spatial and temporal hierarchy in pairwise genetic relatedness, with the most similar barcodes from isolates within the same households and village. Constrained by travel data, the model detected 60 directional transmission events, with 27% paths linking persons from different regions. We identified 13 infected individuals (4.2% of those genotyped) responsible for 2 to 8 subsequent infections within their communities. These super-infectors were mostly from high transmission villages. When considering paths between isolates from the most distant regions (west vs east) and travel history, there were 3 transmission paths from eastern to western Gambia, all at the peak (October) of the malaria transmission season. No paths with known travel originated from the extreme west to east. Although more than half of all paths were within-village, parasite flow from east to west may contribute to maintain transmission in western Gambia, where malaria transmission is already low. Therefore, interrupting malaria transmission in western Gambia would require targeting eastern Gambia, where malaria prevalence is substantially higher, with intensified malaria interventions.

Bayesian reconstruction of a vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus transmission route using epidemiologic data and genomic variants from whole genome sequencing

BACKGROUND

Outbreaks of vancomycin-resistant enterococcus (VRE) are a serious problem in hospitals. Inferring the transmission route is an important factor to institute appropriate infection control measures; however, the methodology has not been fully established.

AIM

To reconstruct and evaluate the transmission model using sequence variants extracted from whole genome sequencing (WGS) data and epidemiological information from patients involved in a VRE outbreak.

METHODS

During a VRE outbreak in our hospital, 23 samples were collected from patients and environmental surfaces and analysed using WGS. By combining genome alignment information with patient epidemiological data, the VRE transmission route was reconstructed using a Bayesian approach. With the transmission model, evaluation and further analyses were performed to identify risk factors that contributed to the outbreak.

FINDINGS

All VREs were identified as Enterococcus faecium belonging to sequence type 17, which consisted of two VRE genotypes: vanA (N = 8, including one environmental sample) and vanB (N = 15). The reconstruction model using the Bayesian approach showed the transmission direction with posterior probability and revealed transmission through an environmental surface. In addition, some cases acting as VRE spreaders were identified, which can interfere with appropriate infection control. Vancomycin administration was identified as a significant risk factor for spreaders.

CONCLUSION

A Bayesian approach for transmission route reconstruction using epidemiologic data and genomic variants from WGS can be applied in actual VRE outbreaks. This may contribute to the design and implementation of effective infection control measures.

De Novo Mutations Resolve Disease Transmission Pathways in Clonal Malaria

Detecting de novo mutations in viral and bacterial pathogens enables researchers to reconstruct detailed networks of disease transmission and is a key technique in genomic epidemiology. However, these techniques have not yet been applied to the malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum, in which a larger genome, slower generation times, and a complex life cycle make them difficult to implement. Here, we demonstrate the viability of de novo mutation studies in P. falciparum for the first time. Using a combination of sequencing, library preparation, and genotyping methods that have been optimized for accuracy in low-complexity genomic regions, we have detected de novo mutations that distinguish nominally identical parasites from clonal lineages. Despite its slower evolutionary rate compared with bacterial or viral species, de novo mutation can be detected in P. falciparum across timescales of just 1–2 years and evolutionary rates in low-complexity regions of the genome can be up to twice that detected in the rest of the genome. The increased mutation rate allows the identification of separate clade expansions that cannot be found using previous genomic epidemiology approaches and could be a crucial tool for mapping residual transmission patterns in disease elimination campaigns and reintroduction scenarios.

Model diagnostics and refinement for phylodynamic models

Phylodynamic modelling, which studies the joint dynamics of epidemiological and evolutionary processes, has made significant progress in recent years due to increasingly available genomic data and advances in statistical modelling. These advances have greatly improved our understanding of transmission dynamics of many important pathogens. Nevertheless, there remains a lack of effective, targetted diagnostic tools for systematically detecting model mis-specification. Development of such tools is essential for model criticism, refinement, and calibration. The idea of utilising latent residuals for model assessment has already been exploited in general spatio-temporal epidemiological settings. Specifically, by proposing appropriately designed non-centered, re-parameterizations of a given epidemiological process, one can construct latent residuals with known sampling distributions which can be used to quantify evidence of model mis-specification. In this paper, we extend this idea to formulate a novel model-diagnostic framework for phylodynamic models. Using simulated examples, we show that our framework may effectively detect a particular form of mis-specification in a phylodynamic model, particularly in the event of superspreading. We also exemplify our approach by applying the framework to a dataset describing a local foot-and-mouth (FMD) outbreak in the UK, eliciting strong evidence against the assumption of no within-host-diversity in the outbreak. We further demonstrate that our framework can facilitate model calibration in real-life scenarios, by proposing a within-host-diversity model which appears to offer a better fit to data than one that assumes no within-host-diversity of FMD virus.

Integrated modelling of conventional epidemiological data and modern genomic data (i.e. phylodynamics) has made significant progress in recent years, due to the ever-increasing availability of genomic data and development of statistical methods. However, there is a lack of tools for carrying out effective diagnostics for phylodynamic models. We propose a novel model diagnostic framework that involves a latent residual process which is a priori independent of model assumptions and which can be used to quantify, and reveal the nature of, model inadequacy. Our results suggest that our framework may systematically detect deviation from a particular model assumption and greatly facilitate subsequent model calibration.

In Silico Identification of Three Types of Integrative and Conjugative Elements in Elizabethkingia anophelis Strains Isolated from around the World

Elizabethkingia anophelis is an opportunistic human pathogen, and the genetic diversity between strains from around the world becomes apparent as more genomes are sequenced. Genome comparison identified three types of putative ICEs in 31 of 36 strains. The diversity of ICEs suggests that they had different origins. One of the ICEs was discovered previously from a large E. anophelis outbreak in Wisconsin in the United States; this ICE has integrated into the mutY gene of the outbreak strain, creating a mutator phenotype. Similar to ICEs found in many bacterial species, ICEs in E. anophelis carry various cargo genes that enable recipients to resist antibiotics and adapt to various ecological niches. The adaptive immune CRISPR-Cas system is present in nine of 36 strains. An ICE-derived spacer was found in the CRISPR locus in a strain that has no ICE, suggesting a past encounter and effective defense against ICE.

Elizabethkingia anophelis is an emerging global multidrug-resistant opportunistic pathogen. We assessed the diversity among 13 complete genomes and 23 draft genomes of E. anophelis strains derived from various environmental settings and human infections from different geographic regions around the world from 1950s to the present. Putative integrative and conjugative elements (ICEs) were identified in 31/36 (86.1%) strains in the study. A total of 52 putative ICEs (including eight degenerated elements lacking integrases) were identified and categorized into three types based on the architecture of the conjugation module and the phylogeny of the relaxase, coupling protein, TraG, and TraJ protein sequences. The type II and III ICEs were found to integrate adjacent to tRNA genes, while type I ICEs integrate into intergenic regions or into a gene. The ICEs carry various cargo genes, including transcription regulator genes and genes conferring antibiotic resistance. The adaptive immune CRISPR-Cas system was found in nine strains, including five strains in which CRISPR-Cas machinery and ICEs coexist at different locations on the same chromosome. One ICE-derived spacer was present in the CRISPR locus in one strain. ICE distribution in the strains showed no geographic or temporal patterns. The ICEs in E. anophelis differ in architecture and sequence from CTnDOT, a well-studied ICE prevalent in Bacteroides spp. The categorization of ICEs will facilitate further investigations of the impact of ICE on virulence, genome epidemiology, and adaptive genomics of E. anophelis.

IMPORTANCEElizabethkingia anophelis is an opportunistic human pathogen, and the genetic diversity between strains from around the world becomes apparent as more genomes are sequenced. Genome comparison identified three types of putative ICEs in 31 of 36 strains. The diversity of ICEs suggests that they had different origins. One of the ICEs was discovered previously from a large E. anophelis outbreak in Wisconsin in the United States; this ICE has integrated into the mutY gene of the outbreak strain, creating a mutator phenotype. Similar to ICEs found in many bacterial species, ICEs in E. anophelis carry various cargo genes that enable recipients to resist antibiotics and adapt to various ecological niches. The adaptive immune CRISPR-Cas system is present in nine of 36 strains. An ICE-derived spacer was found in the CRISPR locus in a strain that has no ICE, suggesting a past encounter and effective defense against ICE.

Use of Genome Sequencing to Define Institutional Influenza Outbreaks, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, 2014-15

Adequacy of the current clinical definition of institutional influenza outbreaks is unclear. We performed a retrospective genome sequencing and epidemiologic analysis of institutional influenza outbreaks that occurred during the 2014-15 influenza season in Toronto, Canada. We sequenced the 2 earliest submitted samples positive for influenza A(H3N2) from each of 38 reported institutional outbreaks in long-term care facilities. Genome sequencing showed most outbreak pairs identified by using the current clinical definition were highly related. Inclusion of surveillance samples demonstrated that outbreak sources were likely introductions from broader circulating lineages. Pairwise distance analysis using majority genome and hemagglutinin-specific genes enabled identification of thresholds for discrimination of within and between outbreak pairs; the area under the curve ranged 0.93-0.95. Routine genome sequencing for defining influenza outbreaks in long-term care facilities is unlikely to add significantly to the current clinical definition. Sequencing may prove most useful for investigating sources of outbreak introductions.

An amplicon-based sequencing framework for accurately measuring intrahost virus diversity using PrimalSeq and iVar

How viruses evolve within hosts can dictate infection outcomes; however, reconstructing this process is challenging. We evaluate our multiplexed amplicon approach, PrimalSeq, to demonstrate how virus concentration, sequencing coverage, primer mismatches, and replicates influence the accuracy of measuring intrahost virus diversity. We develop an experimental protocol and computational tool, iVar, for using PrimalSeq to measure virus diversity using Illumina and compare the results to Oxford Nanopore sequencing. We demonstrate the utility of PrimalSeq by measuring Zika and West Nile virus diversity from varied sample types and show that the accumulation of genetic diversity is influenced by experimental and biological systems.

Genomic epidemiology of multidrug-resistant Gram-negative organisms

The emergence and spread of antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (rGNB) across global healthcare networks presents a significant threat to public health. As the number of effective antibiotics available to treat these resistant organisms dwindles, it is essential that we devise more effective strategies for controlling their proliferation. Recently, whole-genome sequencing has emerged as a disruptive technology that has transformed our understanding of the evolution and epidemiology of diverse rGNB species, and it has the potential to guide strategies for controlling the evolution and spread of resistance. Here, we review specific areas in which genomics has already made a significant impact, including outbreak investigations, regional epidemiology, clinical diagnostics, resistance evolution, and the study of epidemic lineages. While highlighting early successes, we also point to the next steps needed to translate this technology into strategies to improve public health and clinical medicine.

Tracking virus outbreaks in the twenty-first century

Emerging viruses have the potential to impose substantial mortality, morbidity and economic burdens on human populations. Tracking the spread of infectious diseases to assist in their control has traditionally relied on the analysis of case data gathered as the outbreak proceeds. Here, we describe how many of the key questions in infectious disease epidemiology, from the initial detection and characterization of outbreak viruses, to transmission chain tracking and outbreak mapping, can now be much more accurately addressed using recent advances in virus sequencing and phylogenetics. We highlight the utility of this approach with the hypothetical outbreak of an unknown pathogen, ‘Disease X’, suggested by the World Health Organization to be a potential cause of a future major epidemic. We also outline the requirements and challenges, including the need for flexible platforms that generate sequence data in real-time, and for these data to be shared as widely and openly as possible.

This Review Article describes how recent advances in viral genome sequencing and phylogenetics have enabled key issues associated with outbreak epidemiology to be more accurately addressed, and highlights the requirements and challenges for generating, sharing and using such data when tackling a viral outbreak.