A cost-effectiveness analysis of HIV preexposure prophylaxis for men who have sex with men in Australia

Optimising HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis and testing strategies in men who have sex with men in Australia, Thailand, and China: a modelling study and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Asia-Pacific region have a disproportionately high burden of HIV infection compared with the general population. Although pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV is highly effective at preventing new HIV infections, the cost-effectiveness of PrEP for MSM in different countries in the Asia-Pacific region with varying PrEP coverage and HIV testing frequencies remains unstudied. We aimed to analyse the economic and health benefits of long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) compared with oral PrEP in high-income countries and low-income and middle-income countries within the Asia-Pacific region.

METHODS

We developed a decision-analytic Markov model to evaluate the population impact and cost-effectiveness of PrEP scale-up among MSM in Australia, Thailand, and China. We assumed a static cohort of 100 000 MSM aged 18 years or older who were at risk of HIV infection, with a monthly cycle length over a 40-year time period. We evaluated hypothetical scenarios with universal PrEP coverage of 80% among 100 000 suitable MSM in each country. We modelled oral PrEP and CAB-LA for MSM with diverse HIV testing frequency strategies. We adopted the health-care system's perspective with a 3% annual discount rate. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), measured as additional cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, to compare different strategies with the status quo in each country. All costs were reported in 2021 US$. We also performed one-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of our findings.

FINDINGS

Compared with the status quo in each country, expanding oral PrEP to 80% of suitable MSM would avert 8·1% of new HIV infections in Australia, 14·5% in Thailand, and 26·4% in China in a 40-year period. Expanding oral PrEP use with 6-monthly HIV testing for both PrEP and non-PrEP users was cost-saving for Australia. Similarly, expanding oral PrEP use remained the most cost-effective strategy in both Thailand and China, but optimal testing frequency varied, with annual testing in Thailand (ICER $4707 per QALY gained) and 3-monthly testing in China (ICER $16 926 per QALY gained) for both PrEP and non-PrEP users. We also found that replacing oral PrEP with CAB-LA for MSM could avert more new HIV infections (12·8% in Australia, 27·6% in Thailand, and 32·8% in China), but implementing CAB-LA was not cost-effective due to its high cost. The cost of CAB-LA would need to be reduced by 50-90% and be used as a complementary strategy to oral PrEP to be cost-effective in these countries.

INTERPRETATION

Expanding oral PrEP use for MSM, with country-specific testing frequency, is cost-effective in Australia, Thailand, and China. Due to the high cost, CAB-LA is currently not affordable as a single-use strategy but might be offered as an additional option to oral PrEP.

FUNDING

Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China, the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, National Key Research and Development Program of China, and National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Cost-effectiveness of Kidney Transplantation From Donors at Increased Risk of Blood-borne Virus Infection Transmission

BACKGROUND

Demand for donor kidneys outstrips supply. Using kidneys from selected donors with an increased risk of blood-borne virus (BBV) transmission (hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus [HCV], human immunodeficiency virus) may expand the donor pool, but cost-effectiveness of this strategy is uncertain.

METHODS

A Markov model was developed using real-world evidence to compare healthcare costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of accepting kidneys from deceased donors with potential increased risk of BBV transmission, because of increased risk behaviors and/or history of HCV, versus declining these kidneys. Model simulations were run over a 20-y time horizon. Parameter uncertainty was assessed through deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Accepting kidneys from donors at increased risk of BBVs (2% from donors with increased-risk behaviors and 5% from donors with active or past HCV infection) incurred total costs of 311 303 Australian dollars with a gain of 8.53 QALYs. Foregoing kidneys from these donors incurred total costs of $330 517 and a gain of 8.44 QALYs. A cost-saving of $19 214 and additional 0.09 QALYs (~33 d in full health) per person would be generated compared with declining these donors. Increasing the availability of kidneys with increased risk by 15% led to further cost-savings of $57 425 and additional 0.23 QALY gains (~84 d in full health). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis using 10 000 iterations showed accepting kidneys from donors at increased risk led to lower costs and higher QALY gains.

CONCLUSIONS

Shifting clinical practice to accept increased BBV risk donors would likely produce lower costs and higher QALYs for health systems.

Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of Biomedical, Non-Surgical HIV Prevention Interventions: A Systematic Literature Review

BACKGROUND

Considerable evidence on the costs and cost-effectiveness of biomedical, non-surgical interventions to prevent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission has been generated over the last decade. This study aims to synthesize findings and identify remaining knowledge gaps to suggest future research priorities.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was carried out in August 2020 using the MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health and EconLit databases to retrieve economic evaluations and costing studies of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), injectable long-acting PrEP, vaginal microbicide rings and gels, HIV vaccines and broadly neutralizing antibodies. Studies reporting costs from the provider or societal perspective were included in the analysis. Those reporting on behavioural methods of prevention, condoms and surgical approaches (voluntary medical male circumcision) were excluded. The quality of reporting of the included studies was assessed using published checklists.

RESULTS

We identified 3007 citations, of which 87 studies were retained. Most were set in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs; n = 53) and focused on the costs and/or cost-effectiveness of oral PrEP regimens (n = 70). Model-based economic evaluations were the most frequent study design; only two trial-based cost-effectiveness analyses and nine costing studies were found. Less than half of the studies provided practical details on how the intervention would be delivered by the health system, and only three of these, all in LMICs, explicitly focused on service integration and its implication for delivery costs. 'Real-world' programme delivery mechanisms and costs of intervention delivery were rarely considered. PrEP technologies were generally found to be cost-effective only when targeting high-risk subpopulations. Single-dose HIV vaccines are expected to be cost-effective for all groups despite substantial uncertainty around pricing.

CONCLUSIONS

A lack of primary, detailed and updated cost data, including above-service level costs, from a variety of settings makes it difficult to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of specific delivery modes at scale, or to evaluate strategies for services integration. Closing this evidence gap around real-world implementation is vital, not least because the strategies targeting high-risk groups that are recommended by PrEP models may incur substantially higher costs and be of limited practical feasibility in some settings.

The Cost-Effectiveness of HIV/STI Prevention in High-Income Countries with Concentrated Epidemic Settings: A Scoping Review

The purpose of this scoping review is to establish the state of the art on economic evaluations in the field of HIV/STI prevention in high-income countries with concentrated epidemic settings and to assess what we know about the cost-effectiveness of different measures. We reviewed economic evaluations of HIV/STI prevention measures published in the Web of Science and Cost-Effectiveness Registry databases. We included a total of 157 studies focusing on structural, behavioural, and biomedical interventions, covering a variety of contexts, target populations and approaches. The majority of studies are based on mathematical modelling and demonstrate that the preventive measures under scrutiny are cost-effective. Interventions targeted at high-risk populations yield the most favourable results. The generalisability and transferability of the study results are limited due to the heterogeneity of the populations, settings and methods involved. Furthermore, the results depend heavily on modelling assumptions. Since evidence is unequally distributed, we discuss implications for future research.

Cost-Effectiveness of Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in China: A Systematic Review

Objective

Men who have sex with men in China meet the definition of the population at “substantial risk” of contracting human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) according to the World Health Organization; therefore, initiating pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is recommended for this population. Lack of convincing evidence on cost-effectiveness has resulted in the lack of large-scale PrEP implementation at a national level. The objective of this review is to assess the cost-effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis implementation among men who have sex with men in China.

Methods

The following databases were used to search studies of pre-exposure prophylaxis in China in both English and Chinese: PubMed, Embase, the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), and the Wanfang Database. Inclusion criteria included pre-exposure intervention, year for publication (2007–2021), setting (China), and cost-effectiveness estimation.

Results

Seven studies were identified. We found that pre-exposure prophylaxis is only cost-effective among men who have sex with men without prioritization with at least a 5.5% reduction in the market price in the models. Pre-exposure prophylaxis is potentially cost-effective when using the latest market price, combined with other preventive programs or delivered to the population with a high risk of HIV exposure.

Conclusion

Our study identifies key considerations in cost-effectiveness evaluation: cost assumptions, implementation coverage, and targeted population. The scarce evidence available is not comparable to some extent. However, combined with the latest market and policy reform, the cost-effectiveness of PrEP could be achieved as estimated by the underlying model of the included studies. Consequently, it calls for more standard and transparent modeling studies that include the latest drug types and market prices.

A comparison of attitudes and knowledge of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) between hospital and Key Population Led Health Service providers: Lessons for Thailand's Universal Health Coverage implementation

BACKGROUND

HIV Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has demonstrated efficacy and effectiveness among high-risk populations. In Thailand, PrEP has been included in the National Guidelines on HIV/AIDS Treatment and Prevention since 2014. As a part of the national monitoring and evaluation framework for Thailand's universal coverage inclusion, this cross-sectional survey was conducted to assess knowledge of, attitudes to and practice (KAP) of PrEP service providers in Thailand.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional survey to explore knowledge of, and attitudes towards PrEP among providers from hospital and Key Population Led Health Services (KPLHS) settings. The questionnaire was distributed online in July 2020. Descriptive and univariate analysis using an independent-sample t-test were applied in the analyses. Attitudes were ranked from the most negative (score of 1) to the most positive (score of 5).

RESULTS

Overall, there were 196 respondents (158 from hospitals and 38 from KPLHS) in which most hospital providers are female nurse practitioners while half of those from KPLHS report current gender as gay. Most respondents report a high level of PrEP knowledge and support provision in all high-risk groups with residual concern regarding anti-retroviral drugs resistance. Over two-fifths of providers from both settings perceive that PrEP would result in risk compensation and half of KPLHS providers are concerned regarding risk of sexual transmitted infections. Limited PrEP counselling time is a challenge for hospital providers.

CONCLUSIONS

Service integration between both settings, more involvement and distribution of KPLHS in reaching key populations would be essential in optimizing PrEP uptake and retention. Continuing support particularly in raising awareness about PrEP among healthcare providers and key populations, facilities and manpower, unlimited quota of patient recruitment and PrEP training to strengthen providers' confidence and knowledge would be essential for successful PrEP implementation.

Offering a choice of daily and event-driven preexposure prophylaxis for men who have sex with men in the Netherlands: a cost-effectiveness analysis

OBJECTIVES

To assess the cost-effectiveness of a preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) programme offering a choice of daily and event-driven PrEP for men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Netherlands.

METHODS

We used an agent-based transmission model and an economic model to simulate a programme offering only daily PrEP and a programme offering daily and event-driven PrEP. Use of PrEP medication and preference for daily versus event-driven PrEP were estimated from the Amsterdam PrEP Demonstration Project (AMPrEP). We calculated costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER), over 2018-2027. An ICER less than €20 000 per QALY gained was considered cost-effective.

RESULTS

Using AMPrEP data, we estimated that 27% of PrEP users chose event-driven PrEP with a median of 12 pills per month; daily PrEP users used a median of 30 pills per month. With PrEP, 3740 HIV infections were averted and 1482 QALYs were gained over 2018-2027, compared to the scenario without PrEP. The probability of the PrEP programme being cost-effective (compared to not having a PrEP programme) increased from 91% with daily PrEP to 94% with a choice of daily and event-driven PrEP. The probability of being cost-saving increased from 42% with only daily PrEP to 48% with choice of daily and event-driven PrEP.

CONCLUSIONS

A daily PrEP programme for MSM would be cost-effective. Providing a choice of daily and event-driven PrEP can result in savings and is more likely to be cost-effective and cost-saving, compared to a programme offering only daily PrEP.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of a National Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) Program in Ireland

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of introducing a publicly funded pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) program in Ireland.

METHODS

We constructed a state-transition Markov model. This was a cross-sectional population model that tracked all HIV-negative men who have sex with men (MSM) in Ireland over their lifetime. Access to a publicly funded PrEP program (medications + frequent monitoring) in high-risk MSM was compared with no PrEP. The primary outcome measure was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER).

RESULTS

In the base case, introducing a PrEP program was considered cost saving and provided significant health benefits to the population. Univariate sensitivity analysis demonstrated that PrEP efficacy and HIV incidence had the greatest impact on cost-effectiveness. Including an increase in sexually transmitted infections had a negligible impact on the results. Efficacy was a significant driver in the model. PrEP was cost saving at all efficacy values above 60%, and at the lowest reported efficacy in MSM (44% in the iPrEX trial), the ICER was €4711/QALY (highly cost-effective). Event-based dosing (administration during high-risk periods only) was associated with additional cost savings. We estimated that 1705 individuals (95% CI: 617-3452) would join the program in year 1. The incremental budget impact was €1.5m (95% CI: €0.5m to €3m) in the first year and €5.4m over 5 years (95% CI: €1.8m to €11.5m), with 173 cases of HIV averted over 5 years.

CONCLUSION

We found that the introduction of a PrEP program would be considered cost saving in the first cost-effectiveness analysis of its kind in Ireland.

Mathematical modelling of the influence of serosorting on the population-level HIV transmission impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis

OBJECTIVES

HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) may change serosorting patterns. We examined the influence of serosorting on the population-level HIV transmission impact of PrEP, and how impact could change if PrEP users stopped serosorting.

DESIGN

We developed a compartmental HIV transmission model parameterized with bio-behavioural and HIV surveillance data among MSM in Canada.

METHODS

We separately fit the model with serosorting and without serosorting [counterfactual; sero-proportionate mixing (random partner-selection proportional to availability by HIV status)], and reproduced stable HIV epidemics with HIV-prevalence 10.3-24.8%, undiagnosed fraction 4.9-15.8% and treatment coverage 82.5-88.4%. We simulated PrEP-intervention reaching stable pre-specified coverage by year-one and compared absolute difference in relative HIV-incidence reduction 10 years post-intervention (PrEP-impact) between models with serosorting vs. sero-proportionate mixing; and counterfactual scenarios when PrEP users immediately stopped vs. continued serosorting. We examined sensitivity of results to PrEP-effectiveness (44-99%; reflecting varying dosing or adherence levels) and coverage (10-50%).

RESULTS

Models with serosorting predicted a larger PrEP-impact than models with sero-proportionate mixing under all PrEP-effectiveness and coverage assumptions [median (interquartile range): 8.1% (5.5-11.6%)]. PrEP users' stopping serosorting reduced PrEP-impact compared with when PrEP users continued serosorting: reductions in PrEP-impact were minimal [2.1% (1.4-3.4%)] under high PrEP-effectiveness (86-99%); however, could be considerable [10.9% (8.2-14.1%)] under low PrEP effectiveness (44%) and high coverage (30-50%).

CONCLUSION

Models assuming sero-proportionate mixing may underestimate population-level HIV-incidence reductions due to PrEP. PrEP-mediated changes in serosorting could lead to programmatically important reductions in PrEP-impact under low PrEP-effectiveness. Our findings suggest the need to monitor sexual mixing patterns to inform PrEP implementation and evaluation.

PrEP Use Awareness and Interest Cascade among MSM and Transgender Women Living in Bali, Indonesia

Indonesia has not implemented HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) despite global calls for its scale-up, and there is limited information about attitudes towards PrEP among its potential users. We aim to present a PrEP cascade among men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (known locally as “waria”) in Denpasar, Bali, from a cross-sectional survey with 220 HIV-negative MSM/waria recruited from one clinic in Denpasar. Only 16.4% of participants had heard of PrEP before. From first-to-last steps included in the cascade, we found 77.3% (170/220) of participants were classified with HIV high risk, 75.9% (129/170) perceived themselves as being at high risk, 81.4% (105/129) expressed interest in using PrEP, 78.1% (82/105) were willing to do PrEP procedures, 48.8% (40/82) were willing to pay 500,000–600,000 IDR, and only two participants had ever been on PrEP before (5.0% of those willing to pay and 0.9% of the total sample). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that self-perception of high HIV risk was lower among older age groups (p < 0.001 among 30–39; p = 0.002 among > 40) and higher among participants with multiple sex partners (p = 0.016). Interest in using PrEP was lower among participants with high social engagement as MSM/waria (p = 0.002) and was higher among participants with multiple sex partners (p = 0.020) and inconsistent condom use (p = 0.011). This study has shown a significantly low level of PrEP awareness among its participants and decreases in interest in PrEP use due to procedure and cost. It suggested that an appropriate PrEP campaign is needed if PrEP is going to be introduced in Indonesia.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of pre-exposure prophylaxis for the prevention of HIV in men who have sex with men in South Korea: a mathematical modelling study

In February 2018, the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety in Korea approved tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) co-formulate for use in pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for the prevention of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. This study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of PrEP in men who have sex with men (MSM), a major risk group emerging in Korea. A dynamic compartmental model was developed for HIV transmission and progression in MSM aged 15-64 years. With a combined model including economic analysis, we estimated averted HIV infections, changes in HIV prevalence, discounted costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). PrEP was evaluated in both the general MSM and high-risk MSM populations and was assumed to reduce infection risk by 80%. Implementing PrEP in all MSM would avert 75.2% HIV infections and facilitate a gain of 37,372 QALYs at a cost of $274,822 per QALY gained over 20 years relative to the status quo. Initiating PrEP in high-risk MSM with an average of eight partners per year (around 20% of MSM) would improve the cost-effectiveness, averting 78.0% HIV infections and add 29,242 QALYs at a cost of $51,597 per QALY gained, which is within the willingness-to-pay threshold for Korea of $56,000/QALY gained. This result was highly sensitive to annual PrEP costs, quality-of-life for people who are on PrEP, and initial HIV prevalence. Initiating PrEP in a larger proportion of MSM in Korea would prevent more HIV infections, but at an increasing cost per QALY gained. Focusing PrEP on higher risk MSM and any reduction in PrEP cost would improve cost-effectiveness.

Cost utility analysis of HIV pre exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men in Israel

Background

Between 2011 and 2015, Men who have sex with men (MSM) accounted for nearly half of new HIV cases among men in Israel. This study carries out a cost-utility analysis of PrEP (HIV Pre Exposure Prophylaxis), an antiretroviral medication that can protect against the acquisition of HIV infection, whose incidence rate in Israel is around 1.74 per 1000 MSM.

Method

Epidemiological, demographic, health service utilisation and economic data were integrated into a spread-sheet model in order to calculate the cost per averted disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of the intervention from a societal perspective, in mid-2018 US$ using a 3% discount rate. Cost utility analyses were performed for both types of PrEP delivery (continuous regimen and on-demand), together with sensitivity analyses on numbers of condom users who take up PrEP (baseline 25%) and subsequently abandon condom use (baseline 75%), PrEP efficacy (baseline 86%), PrEP prices and monitoring costs.

Results

Around 21.3% of MSM are high risk (as defined by having unprotected anal intercourse). Offering PrEP to this group would have a ten year net cost of around 1563 million USD, preventing 493 persons from becoming HIV-positive, averting around 1616 DALYs at a cost per averted DALY of around 967,744 USD. This will render the intervention to be not cost-effective. PrEP drug prices would have to fall dramatically (by 90.7%) for the intervention to become cost-effective (i.e. having a cost per averted DALY less than thrice GNP per capita) in Israel. PrEP remains not cost-effective (at 475,673 USD per averted DALY) even if intervention costs were reduced by using an “on demand” instead of a daily schedule. Even if there were no changes in condom use, the resultant 411,694 USD cost-utility ratio is still not cost-effective.

Conclusions

Despite PrEPs high effectiveness against HIV, PrEP was found not to be cost-effective in the Israeli context because of a combination of relatively low HIV incidence, high PrEP costs, with a likelyhood that some low-risk MSM (ie: who use condoms) may well begin taking PrEP and as a consequence many of these will abandon condom use. Therefore, ways of minimizing these last two phenomena need to be found.

Funding antiretroviral treatment for HIV-positive temporary residents in Australia prevents transmission and is inexpensive

Background The aim of this study is to estimate the reduction in new HIV infections and resultant cost outcomes of providing antiretroviral treatment (ART) through Australia's 'universal access' health scheme to all temporary residents with HIV infection living legally in Australia, but currently deemed ineligible to access subsidised ART via this scheme.

METHODS

A mathematical model to estimate the number of new HIV infections averted and the associated lifetime costs over 5 years if all HIV-positive temporary residents in Australia had access to ART and subsidised medical care was developed. Input data came from a cohort of 180 HIV-positive temporary residents living in Australia who are receiving free ART donated by pharmaceutical companies for up to 4 years.

RESULTS

Expanding ART access to an estimated total 450 HIV+ temporary residents in Australia for 5 years could avert 80 new infections. The model estimated the total median discounted (5%) cost for ART and associated care to be A$36million, while the total savings in lifetime-discounted costs for the new infections averted was A$22million.

CONCLUSIONS

It is estimated that expanded access to ART for all HIV-positive temporary residents in Australia will substantially reduce HIV transmission to their sexual partners at little additional cost. In the context of Australia's National HIV strategy and Australia's endorsement of global goals to provide universal access to ART for all people with HIV, this is an important measure to remove inequities in the provision of HIV-related treatment and care.

Achieving 90-90-90 Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Targets Will Not Be Enough to Achieve the HIV Incidence Reduction Target in Australia

Background

We estimated the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence reduction in Australia that would correspond to achieving the United Nations Program on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 targets by 2020 and extended targets of 95-95-95 by 2030. This was done in combination with various scale-ups of HIV testing, primary prevention, and preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among high-risk men who have sex with men (MSM). These projections were evaluated against the target of achieving a 90% reduction in HIV incidence by 2030 compared with 2010 levels.

Methods

A mathematical model.

Results

Achieving 90-90-90 by 2020 was estimated to reduce incidence by 10% from 2010 levels. Achieving 95-95-95 by 2030 was estimated to reduce incidence by 17% from 2010 levels, with the first "95" being achievable by testing low- and high-risk MSM 2 and 4 times per year, respectively. This was improved to a 34% reduction by including a 5-year scale-up of PrEP to 30% coverage among high-risk MSM and to 45% by also increasing MSM condom use from 42% to 60%. However, even with 95-95-95, 2 and 4 tests per year for low- and high-risk MSM, 100% high-risk MSM PrEP coverage, and 100% MSM condom use, only an 80% reduction in incidence was possible by 2030.

Conclusions

Many countries, particularly those with low HIV prevalence, will struggle to achieve a 90% reduction in HIV incidence by 2030, even if UNAIDS targets are met. Most will require substantially higher levels of prevention coverage and higher testing frequencies to reach this target.

Predicting the impact of clustered risk and testing behaviour patterns on the population-level effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis against HIV among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in Greater Vancouver, Canada

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has the potential to greatly reduce transmission of HIV. However, significant questions remain around how behavioural factors may influence its impact within target populations. We used a 2014 sexual behaviour survey to modify and recalibrate a mathematical model of HIV infection dynamics within the population of gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) in the Greater Vancouver area of British Columbia, Canada. We performed a clustering analysis on the survey data to divide the population into categories associated with their reported risk of HIV exposure as well as their reported testing habits and attitudes towards PrEP. We found a positive association between reported risk and testing behaviour and level of awareness/interest in PrEP. Using the cluster groups to structure the population, we then estimated the impact of PrEP on HIV transmission in our study population. We found that the association between behaviour and interest in PrEP substantially boosted the population-level effectiveness of PrEP. Within our model, if PrEP adoption was unrelated to risk and testing, an additional 206 (95% credible interval 5-261), new infections representing 15% of total infections are predicted to occur among GBMSM over ten years, compared to where PrEP is adopted by individuals according to their level of interest. Our results underscore the importance of incorporating behavioural data into models when predicting the impact of future public health interventions.

Likely impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis on HIV epidemics among men who have sex with men

Rapid developments in the field of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with antiretrovirals offer a promise to bring HIV transmission among gay and other men who have sex with men (MSM) to zero by 2030. This review evaluates studies, which modelled the impact of PrEP on HIV diagnoses, and discusses the progress towards PrEP implementation. Studies in English, conducted after 2010 among MSM in countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) were reviewed. Six modelling studies were included, three of which had been conducted outside the US. None of the published models showed that PrEP alone can reduce HIV diagnoses to zero and eliminate HIV transmission by 2030. However, PrEP in combination with other biomedical interventions can reduce HIV diagnoses on the population level by ~95%. Other upcoming biomedical prevention strategies may strengthen combination prevention. Access to PrEP remains limited, even in the OECD countries. Modelling studies can assist governments with decision-making about PrEP implementation and add urgency to the implementation of PrEP. More work is needed on modelling of the impact of PrEP on HIV diagnoses trends outside the US where PrEP implementation is in its early stages.

Impact of sexual trajectories of men who have sex with men on the reduction in HIV transmission by pre-exposure prophylaxis

Changes in sexual risk behavior over the life course in men who have sex with men (MSM) can influence population-level intervention efficacy. Our objective was to investigate the impact of incorporating sexual trajectories describing long-term changes in risk levels on the reduction in HIV prevalence by pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among MSM. Based on the Amsterdam Cohort Study data, we developed two models of HIV transmission in a population stratified by sexual behavior. In the first model, individuals were stratified into low, medium and high risk levels and did not change their risk levels. The second model had the same stratification but incorporated additionally three types of sexual behavior trajectories. The models assumed universal antiretroviral treatment of HIV⁺ MSM, and PrEP use by high risk HIV^- MSM. We computed the relative reduction in HIV prevalence in both models for annual PrEP uptakes of 10% to 80% at different time points after PrEP introduction. We then investigated the impact of sexual trajectories on the effectiveness of PrEP intervention. The impact of sexual trajectories on the overall prevalence and prevalence in individuals at low, medium and high risk levels varied with PrEP uptake and time after PrEP introduction. Compared to the model without sexual trajectories, the model with trajectories predicted a higher impact of PrEP on the overall prevalence, and on the prevalence among the medium and high risk individuals. In low risk individuals, there was more reduction in prevalence during the first 15 years of PrEP intervention if sexual trajectories were not incorporated in the model. After that point, at low risk level there was more reduction in the model with trajectories. In conclusion, our study predicts that sexual trajectories increase the estimated impact of PrEP on reducing HIV prevalence when compared to a population where risk levels do not change.

Modelling the Epidemiological Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of PrEP for HIV Transmission in MSM in China

Risk of HIV infection is high in Chinese MSM, with an annual HIV incidence ranging from 3.41 to 13.7/100 person-years. Tenofovir-based PrEP is effective in preventing HIV transmission in MSM. This study evaluates the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of implementing PrEP in Chinese MSM over the next two decades. A compartmental model for HIV was used to forecast the impact of PrEP on number of infections, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted. We also provide an estimate of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and the cost per DALY averted of the intervention. Without PrEP, there will be 1.1-3.0 million new infections and 0.7-2.3 million HIV-related deaths in the next two decades. Moderate PrEP coverage (50%) would prevent 0.17-0.32 million new HIV infections. At Truvada's current price in China, daily oral PrEP costs $46,813-52,008 per DALY averted and is not cost-effective; on-demand Truvada reduces ICER to $25,057-27,838 per DALY averted, marginally cost-effective; daily generic tenofovir-based regimens further reduce ICER to $3675-8963, wholly cost-effective. The cost of daily oral Truvada PrEP regimen would need to be reduced by half to achieve cost-effectiveness and realize the public health good of preventing hundreds of thousands of HIV infections among MSM in China.

Elimination prospects of the Dutch HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in the era of preexposure prophylaxis

Objective:

Preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a promising intervention to help end the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Netherlands. We aimed to assess the impact of PrEP on HIV prevalence in this population and to determine the levels of PrEP coverage necessary for HIV elimination.

Design and methods:

We developed a mathematical model of HIV transmission in a population stratified by sexual risk behavior with universal antiretroviral treatment (ART) and daily PrEP use depending on an individual's risk behavior. We computed the effective reproduction number, HIV prevalence, ART and PrEP coverage for increasing ART and PrEP uptake levels, and examined how these were affected by PrEP effectiveness and duration of PrEP use.

Results:

At current levels of ART coverage of 80%, PrEP effectiveness of 86% and PrEP duration of 5 years, HIV elimination required 82% PrEP coverage in the highest risk group (12 000 MSM with more than 18 partners per year). If ART coverage increased by 9%, the elimination threshold was at 70% PrEP coverage. For shorter PrEP duration and lower effectiveness elimination prospects were less favorable. For the same number of PrEP users distributed among two groups with highest risk behavior, prevalence dropped from the current 8 to 4.6%.

Conclusion:

PrEP for HIV prevention among MSM could, in principle, eliminate HIV from this population in the Netherlands. The highest impact of PrEP on prevalence was predicted when ART and PrEP coverage increased simultaneously and PrEP was used by the highest risk individuals.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for MSM in low HIV incidence places: should high risk individuals be targeted?

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) targeting high-risk men who have sex with men (MSM) has been shown to be a cost-effective HIV control measure. However, the approach could be a challenge in low HIV incidence places with a low proportion of high-risk MSM. To examine the impact of PrEP in such setting in Asia, we developed an epidemic model and conducted cost-effectiveness analysis using empirical multicentre clinical and HIV sequence data from HIV-infected MSM in Hong Kong, in conjunction with behavioural data of local MSM. Without PrEP, the HIV incidence (per 100 person-years) would increase from 1.1 to 1.6 between 2011 and 2021. PrEP could avert 3–63% of total new infections in a five-year period (2017–2021), the variability of which depends on the implementation strategies and combination with test-and-treat. However, under current market drug price in 2016, the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained (QALYG) of PrEP (USD1583136/QALYG) is almost 3 times higher than test-and-treat intervention alone (USD396874/QALYG). Assuming 93% fall of PrEP drug price and in combination with test-and-treat, putting 30% of MSM on non-targeting PrEP would be more feasible, cost-effective (USD268915/QALYG), and could avert more new infections (40%). PrEP could contribute to HIV epidemic control in a low incidence place.

Cost and cost-effectiveness analysis of pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men in two hospitals in Thailand

INTRODUCTION

In 2014, the Government of Thailand recommended pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) as an additional HIV prevention programme within Thailand's National Guidelines on HIV/AIDS Treatment Prevention. However, to date implementation and uptake of PrEP programmes have been limited, and evidence on the costs and the epidemiological and economic impact is not available.

METHODS

We estimated the costs associated with PrEP provision among men having sex with men (MSM) participating in a facility-based, prospective observational cohort study: the Test, Treat and Prevent HIV Programme in Thailand. We created a suite of scenarios to estimate the cost-effectiveness of PrEP and sensitivity of the results to the model input parameters, including PrEP programme effectiveness, PrEP uptake among high-risk and low-risk MSM, baseline and future antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage, condom use, unit cost of delivering PrEP, and the discount rate.

RESULTS

Drug costs accounted for 82.5% of the total cost of providing PrEP, followed by lab testing (8.2%) and personnel costs (7.8%). The estimated costs of providing the PrEP package in accordance with the national recommendation ranges from US$223 to US$311 per person per year. Based on our modelling results, we estimate that PrEP would be cost-effective when provided to either high-risk or all MSM. However, we found that the programme would be approximately 32% more cost-effective if offered to high-risk MSM than it would be if offered to all MSM, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$4,836 per disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted and US$7,089 per DALY averted respectively. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves demonstrate that 80% of scenarios would be cost-effective when PrEP is provided solely to higher-risk MSM.

CONCLUSION

We provide the first estimates on cost and cost-effectiveness of PrEP in the Asia-Pacific region, and offer insights on how to deliver PrEP in combination with ART. While the high drug cost poses a budgeting challenge, incorporating PrEP delivery into an existing ART programme could be a cost-effective strategy to prevent HIV infections among MSM in Thailand.

Accuracy of HIV Risk Perceptions Among Episodic Substance-Using Men Who Have Sex with Men

Using the HIV Incident Risk Index for men who have sex with men-an objective and validated measure of risk for HIV acquisition, and self-perceptions of belief and worry about acquiring HIV, we identified individuals who underestimated substantial risk for HIV. Data from a racially/ethnically diverse cohort of 324 HIV-negative episodic substance-using men who have sex with men (SUMSM) enrolled in a behavioral risk reduction intervention (2010-2012) were analyzed. Two hundred and fourteen (66%) SUMSM at substantial risk for HIV were identified, of whom 147 (69%, or 45% of the total sample) underestimated their risk. In multivariable regression analyses, compared to others in the cohort, SUMSM who underestimated their substantial risk were more likely to report: a recent sexually transmitted infection diagnosis, experiencing greater social isolation, and exchanging sex for drugs, money, or other goods. An objective risk screener can be valuable to providers in identifying and discussing with SUMSM factors associated with substantial HIV risk, particularly those who may not recognize their risk.

Syndemics among individuals enrolled in the PrEP Brasil Study

BACKGROUND

Concurrent psychosocial problems may synergistically increase the risk of HIV infection (syndemics), representing a challenge for prevention. We aimed to evaluate the prevalence and associated factors of syndemics among men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW) enrolled in the Brazilian pre-exposure prophylaxis demonstration study (PrEP Brasil Study).

METHODS

Secondary cross-sectional analysis of the PrEP Brasil Study was performed. Of 450 HIV-seronegative MSM/TGW enrolled in the PrEP Brasil Study- conducted at Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, Brazil- 421 participants with complete data were included in the present analysis. Syndemics was defined as occurrence of ≥2 of the following conditions: polysubstance (≥2) use, binge drinking, positive depression screen, compulsive sexual behavior, and intimate partner violence (IPV).

RESULTS

The prevalence of recent polysubstance use was 22.8%, binge drinking 51.1%, positive depression screening 5.2%, compulsive sexual behavior 7.1%, and IPV 7.3%. Syndemics prevalence was 24.2%, and associated factors were younger age (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 0.95, 95% Confidence Interval (95% CI) 0.92-0.98 per year increase), TGW vs. MSM (aOR 3.09, 95% CI: 1.2-8.0), some college education or more vs. less than college (aOR 2.49, 95% CI: 1.31-4.75), and multiple male sexual partners in prior 3 months (aOR 1.69, 95% CI: 0.92-3.14).

CONCLUSION

Given the high prevalence of syndemics, particularly of polysubstance use and binge drinking, PrEP delivery offers an opportunity to diagnose and intervene in mental and social well-being.

In what circumstances could nondaily preexposure prophylaxis for HIV substantially reduce program costs?

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text

Objectives:

To review the main factors influencing the costs of nondaily oral preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir (±emtricitabine). To estimate the cost reductions possible with nondaily PrEP compared with daily PrEP for different populations (MSM and heterosexual populations).

Design:

Systematic review and data triangulation.

Methods:

We estimated the required number of tablets/person/week for dosing regimens used in the HPTN 067/ADAPT (daily/time-driven/event-driven) and IPERGAY (on-demand) trials for different patterns of sexual intercourse. Using trial data, and behavioural and cost data obtained through systematic literature reviews, we estimated cost savings resulting from tablet reductions for nondaily versus daily oral PrEP, assuming 100% adherence.

Results:

Among different populations being prioritized for PrEP, the median reported number of days of sexual activity varied between 0 and 2 days/week (0–1.5 days/week for MSM, 1–2 days/week for heterosexual populations). With 100% adherence and two or fewer sex-days/week, HPTN 067/ADAPT nondaily regimens reduced the number of tablets/week by more than 40% compared with daily PrEP. PrEP program costs were reduced the most in settings with high drug costs, for example, by 66–69% with event-driven PrEP for French/US populations reporting on average one sex-day/week.

Conclusion:

Nondaily oral PrEP could lower costs substantially (>50%) compared with daily PrEP, particularly in high-income countries. Adherence and efficacy data are needed to determine cost-effectiveness.

2016 United Kingdom national guideline on the sexual health care of men who have sex with men

This guideline is intended for use in UK Genitourinary medicine clinics and sexual health services but is likely to be of relevance in all sexual health settings, including general practice and Contraception and Sexual Health (CASH) services, where men who have sex with men (MSM) seek sexual health care or where addressing the sexual health needs of MSM may have public health benefits. For the purposes of this document, MSM includes all gay, bisexual and all other males who have sex with other males and both cis and trans men. This document does not provide guidance on the treatment of particular conditions where this is covered in other British Association for Sexual Health and HIV (BASHH) Guidelines but outlines best practice in multiple aspects of the sexual health care of MSM. Where prevention of sexually transmitted infections including HIV can be addressed as an integral part of clinical care, this is consistent with the concept of combination prevention and is included. The document is designed primarily to provide guidance on the direct clinical care of MSM but also makes reference to the design and delivery of services with the aim of supporting clinicians and commissioners in providing effective services. Methodology This document was produced in accordance with the guidance set out in the BASHH CEG's document 'Framework for guideline development and assessment' published in 2010 at http://www.bashh.org/guidelines and with reference to the Agree II instrument. Following the production of the updated framework in April 2015, the GRADE system for assessing evidence was adopted and the draft recommendations were regraded. Search strategy (see also Appendix 1) Ovid Medline 1946 to December 2014, Medline daily update, Embase 1974 to December 2014, Pubmed NeLH Guidelines Database, Cochrane library from 2000 to December 2014. Search language English only. The search for Section 3 was conducted on PubMed to December 2014. Priority was given to peer-reviewed papers published in scientific journals, although for many issues evidence includes conference abstracts listed on the Embase database. In addition, for 'Identification of problematic recreational drug and alcohol use' section and 'Sexual problems and dysfunctions in MSM' section, searches included PsycINFO. Methods Article titles and abstracts were reviewed and if relevant the full text article was obtained. Priority was given to randomised controlled trial and systematic review evidence, and recommendations made and graded on the basis of best available evidence. Piloting and feedback The first draft of the guideline was circulated to the writing group and to a small group of relevant experts, third sector partners and patient representatives who were invited to comment on the whole document and specifically on particular sections. The revised draft was reviewed by the CEG and then reviewed by the BASHH patient/public panel and posted on the BASHH website for public consultation. The final draft was piloted before publication. Guideline update The guidelines will be reviewed and revised in five years' time, 2022.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis for MSM and transgender persons in early adopting countries

: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a potent and underutilized HIV prevention tool. In this paper we review the state of knowledge regarding PrEP implementation for men who have sex with men and transgender persons in early adopting countries. We focus on implementation of PrEP in demonstration projects and clinical care, and describe the status of PrEP availability and uptake. We report on approaches to identifying appropriate PrEP candidates in real-world settings and on best practices for clinical monitoring. This includes the exclusion of undiagnosed HIV infection prior to PrEP initiation and longitudinal measurement of renal function, in light of safety data. Since adherence is the primary factor moderating the effectiveness of PrEP, we discuss effective adherence support interventions. Additionally, we review the evidence for risk compensation with PrEP use and opportunities to provide PrEP as part of comprehensive and inclusive preventive health programs. We summarize cost-effectiveness studies, including their variable conclusions because of differing underlying assumptions, and discuss the importance of budgetary impact for public health programs and health care insurers. Further, we emphasize a need for greater engagement of health care providers in PrEP to increase access. We conclude with recommendations for ways to improve future efforts at implementing PrEP.

Cost-effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention in men who have sex with men in the UK: a modelling study and health economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

In the UK, HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM) has remained high for several years, despite widespread use of antiretroviral therapy and high rates of virological suppression. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has been shown to be highly effective in preventing further infections in MSM, but its cost-effectiveness is uncertain.

METHODS

In this modelling study and economic evaluation, we calibrated a dynamic, individual-based stochastic model, the HIV Synthesis Model, to multiple data sources (surveillance data provided by Public Health England and data from a large, nationally representative survey, Natsal-3) on HIV among MSM in the UK. We did a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (sampling 22 key parameters) along with a range of univariate sensitivity analyses to evaluate the introduction of a PrEP programme with sexual event-based use of emtricitabine and tenofovir for MSM who had condomless anal sexual intercourse in the previous 3 months, a negative HIV test at baseline, and a negative HIV test in the preceding year. The main model outcomes were the number of HIV infections, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and costs.

FINDINGS

Introduction of such a PrEP programme, with around 4000 MSM initiated on PrEP by the end of the first year and almost 40 000 by the end of the 15th year, would result in a total cost saving (£1·0 billion discounted), avert 25% of HIV infections (42% of which would be directly because of PrEP), and lead to a gain of 40 000 discounted QALYs over an 80-year time horizon. This result was particularly sensitive to the time horizon chosen, the cost of antiretroviral drugs (for treatment and PrEP), and the underlying trend in condomless sex.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis suggests that the introduction of a PrEP programme for MSM in the UK is cost-effective and possibly cost-saving in the long term. A reduction in the cost of antiretroviral drugs (including the drugs used for PrEP) would substantially shorten the time for cost savings to be realised.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research.

Awareness and willingness towards pre-exposure prophylaxis against HIV infection among individuals seeking voluntary counselling and testing for HIV in Taiwan: a cross-sectional questionnaire survey

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to investigate the awareness and willingness towards pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among individuals seeking voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) for HIV in Taiwan, where PrEP is currently not reimbursed by the insurance.

METHODS

Between April and October 2016, a questionnaire interview was conducted among VCT clients to inquire about the attitudes towards PrEP against HIV infection. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the associated factors with willingness to initiate PrEP.

RESULTS

During the 6-month period, 1173 VCT clients (99.8%) completed the interviews, with 67.4% being homosexual or bisexual male. While 67.2% of the clients knew of postexposure prophylaxis, 40.2% heard of PrEP. Overall, 546 clients (46.5%) were willing to initiate PrEP and 89.5% of them would choose event-driven PrEP. In multivariate analysis, male gender (OR 1.796; 95% CI 1.165 to 2.768), full-time job (OR 1.354; 95% CI 1.052 to 1.742), one-night stand (OR 1.374; 95% CI 1.043 to 1.810), having casual sex partners within 3 months (OR 1.329; 95% CI 1.031 to 1.714), condomless anal sex (OR 1.405; 95% CI 1.122 to 1.878) and ever having chemsex or attending a drug party in the past 1 year (OR 2.571; 95% CI 1.541 to 4.287), regular screening for HIV infection (OR 1.321; 95% CI 1.021 to 1.711) and knowledge of PrEP (OR 1.504; 95% CI, 1.159 to 1.953) were associated with willingness to initiate PrEP.

CONCLUSIONS

Understanding the willingness to initiate PrEP against HIV among the VCT clients in Taiwan, which was associated with male gender, risky sexual behaviours and awareness of PrEP, will help inform the implementation of PrEP programme.

Economic evaluation of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis among men-who-have-sex-with-men in England in 2016

Clinical effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for preventing HIV acquisition in men who have sex with men (MSM) at high HIV risk is established. A static decision analytical model was constructed to inform policy prioritisation in England around cost-effectiveness and budgetary impact of a PrEP programme covering 5,000 MSM during an initial high-risk period. National genitourinary medicine clinic surveillance data informed key HIV risk assumptions. Pragmatic large-scale implementation scenarios were explored. At 86% effectiveness, PrEP given to 5,000 MSM at 3.3 per 100 person-years annual HIV incidence, assuming risk compensation (20% HIV incidence increase), averted 118 HIV infections over remaining lifetimes and was cost saving. Lower effectiveness (64%) gave an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of + GBP 23,500 (EUR 32,000) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Investment of GBP 26.9 million (EUR 36.6 million) in year-1 breaks even anywhere from year-23 (86% effectiveness) to year-33 (64% effectiveness). PrEP cost-effectiveness was highly sensitive to year-1 HIV incidence, PrEP adherence/effectiveness, and antiretroviral drug costs. There is much uncertainty around HIV incidence in those given PrEP and adherence/effectiveness, especially under programme scale-up. Substantially reduced PrEP drug costs are needed to give the necessary assurance of cost-effectiveness, and for an affordable public health programme of sufficient size.

The Potential Cost-Effectiveness of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Combined with HIV Vaccines in the United States

This economic evaluation aims to support policy-making on the combined use of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with HIV vaccines in development by evaluating the potential cost-effectiveness of implementation that would support the design of clinical trials for the assessment of combined product safety and efficacy. The target study population is a cohort of men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States. Policy strategies considered include standard HIV prevention, daily oral PrEP, HIV vaccine, and their combination. We constructed a Markov model based on clinical trial data and the published literature. We used a payer perspective, monthly cycle length, a lifetime horizon, and a 3% discount rate. We assumed a price of $500 per HIV vaccine series in the base case. HIV vaccines dominated standard care and PrEP. At current prices, PrEP was not cost-effective alone or in combination. A combination strategy had the greatest health benefit but was not cost-effective (ICER = $463,448/QALY) as compared to vaccination alone. Sensitivity analyses suggest a combination may be valuable for higher-risk men with good adherence. Vaccine durability and PrEP drug prices were key drivers of cost-effectiveness. The results suggest that boosting potential may be key to HIV vaccine value.

Modeling and Cost-Effectiveness in HIV Prevention

With HIV funding plateauing and the number of people living with HIV increasing due to the rollout of life-saving antiretroviral therapy, policy makers are faced with increasingly tighter budgets to manage the ongoing HIV epidemic. Cost-effectiveness and modeling analyses can help determine which HIV interventions may be of best value. Incidence remains remarkably high in certain populations and countries, making prevention key to controlling the spread of HIV. This paper briefly reviews concepts in modeling and cost-effectiveness methodology and then examines results of recently published cost-effectiveness analyses on the following HIV prevention strategies: condoms and circumcision, behavioral- or community-based interventions, prevention of mother-to-child transmission, HIV testing, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and treatment as prevention. We find that the majority of published studies demonstrate cost-effectiveness; however, not all interventions are affordable. We urge continued research on combination strategies and methodologies that take into account willingness to pay and budgetary impact.

HIV Incidence Among Men Who Have Sex With Men After Diagnosis With Sexually Transmitted Infections

BACKGROUND

Men who have sex with men (MSM) are at high risk for acquiring HIV infection after diagnosis with other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Identifying the STIs associated with the greatest risk of subsequent HIV infection could help target prevention interventions, particularly preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP).

METHODS

Using matched HIV and STI surveillance data from Washington State from January 1, 2007, to June 30, 2013, we calculated the incidence of new HIV diagnoses after different STI diagnoses among MSM. Men entered observation at the time of their first STI diagnosis during the study period and exited at HIV diagnosis or June 30, 2013. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to conduct a global comparison of rates.

RESULTS

From January 1, 2007, to June 30, 2013, 6577 HIV-negative MSM were diagnosed as having 10,080 bacterial STIs at 8371 unique time points and followed for 17,419 person-years. Two hundred eighty (4.3%) men were subsequently diagnosed as having HIV infection for an overall incidence of 1.6 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval, 1.4-1.8). The estimated incidence of HIV diagnoses among all MSM in the state was 0.4 per 100 person-years. Men who have sex with men were at the greatest risk for HIV diagnosis after being diagnosed as having rectal gonorrhea (HIV incidence, 4.1 per 100 person-years), followed by early syphilis (2.8), urethral gonorrhea (1.6), rectal chlamydial infection (1.6), pharyngeal gonorrhea (1.1), late syphilis (1.0), and urethral chlamydial infection (0.6; P < 0.0001 overall).

CONCLUSIONS

Men who have sex with men diagnosed as having rectal gonorrhea and early syphilis were at the greatest risk for being diagnosed as having HIV infection after STI diagnosis. These men should be prioritized for more intensive prevention interventions, including PrEP.

Factors associated with previously undiagnosed human immunodeficiency virus infection in a population of men who have sex with men and male-to-female transgender women in Lima, Peru

The aim of the study was to identify factors associated with undiagnosed human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) and male-to-female transgender women in Lima, Peru.We analyzed characteristics of 378 MSM and transgender women recruited from 2 sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinics in Lima, Peru. Descriptive analyses compared: (A) HIV-uninfected, (B) previously undiagnosed HIV-infected, and (C) previously diagnosed HIV-infected participants. Multivariable logistic regression models identified: (1) correlates of previously undiagnosed HIV-infection among participants thought to be HIV-uninfected (B vs A); and (2) correlates of previously undiagnosed HIV-infection among HIV-infected participants (B vs C). Subanalysis identified correlates of frequent HIV testing among participants thought to be HIV-uninfected.Among participants, 31.0% were HIV-infected; of those, 35.0% were previously undiagnosed. Among participants thought to be HIV-uninfected (model 1), recent condomless receptive anal intercourse and last HIV test being over 1-year ago (compared to within the last 6-months) were associated with increased odds of being previously undiagnosed HIV-infected (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 2.43, 95% confidence interval [95%CI] = 1.10-5.36; aOR = 2.87, 95%CI = 1.10-7.53, respectively). Among HIV-infected participants (model 2), recent condomless receptive anal intercourse was again associated with previously undiagnosed HIV-infection (aOR = 2.54, 95%CI = 1.04-6.23). Achieving post-secondary education and prior syphilis infection were associated with lower odds of having previously undiagnosed HIV-infection (aOR = 0.35, 95%CI = 0.15-0.81; aOR = 0.32, 95%CI = 0.14-0.75, respectively).Reporting semiannual testing was associated with higher educational attainment, identifying as a transgender woman, or reporting a history of syphilis (aOR = 1.94, 95%CI = 1.11-3.37; aOR = 2.40, 95%CI = 1.23-4.70; aOR = 2.76, 95%CI = 1.62-4.71, respectively). Lower odds of semiannual testing were associated with recent condomless insertive anal intercourse or reporting a moderate or high self-perceived risk of acquiring HIV (aOR = 0.56, 95%CI = 0.33-0.96; aOR = 0.32, 95%CI = 0.18-0.59 and aOR = 0.43, 95%CI = 0.21-0.86, respectively).In our study, undiagnosed HIV-infection was associated with recent condomless receptive anal intercourse, infrequent HIV testing, lower education, and absence of prior syphilis diagnosis. Infrequent HIV testing was associated with lower education, not identifying as transgender, recent condomless insertive anal intercourse, absence of prior syphilis diagnosis, and higher self-perceived risk of HIV. Further efforts to decrease HIV transmission and increase HIV-serostatus awareness should be directed towards effectively promoting condom use and frequent HIV testing, integrated with STI management.

Pre-exposure Prophylaxis for HIV Prevention: Why, What, Who and How

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) offers a promising new approach to HIV prevention. It is protective against HIV infection across populations and has few significant safety risks and little evidence of behavioural risk compensation. This article summarises the evidence behind HIV PrEP as an intervention, populations that may benefit, current guidelines and programmes, and the cost-effectiveness modelling of this strategy.

Optimizing HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis implementation among men who have sex with men in a large urban centre: a dynamic modelling study

INTRODUCTION

Once-daily tenofovir/emtricitabine-based pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can reduce HIV acquisition in men who have sex with men (MSM), by 44% in the iPrEx trial, and reaching up to 99% with high adherence. We examined the potential population-level impact and cost-effectiveness of different PrEP implementation strategies.

METHODS

We developed a dynamic, stochastic compartmental model of HIV transmission among the estimated 57,400 MSM in Toronto, Canada. Parameterization was performed using local epidemiologic data. Strategies examined included (1) uniform PrEP delivery versus targeting the highest risk decile of MSM (with varying coverage proportions); (2) increasing PrEP efficacy as a surrogate of adherence (44% to 99%); and (3) varying HIV test frequency (once monthly to once yearly). Outcomes included HIV infections averted and the incremental cost ($CAD) per incremental quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY) gained over 20 years.

RESULTS

Use of PrEP among all HIV-uninfected MSM at 25, 50, 75 and 100% coverage prevented 1970, 3427, 4317, and 4581 infections, respectively, with cost/QALY increasing from $500,000 to $800,000 CAD. Targeted PrEP for the highest risk MSM at 25, 50, 75 and 100% coverage prevented 1166, 2154, 2816, and 3012 infections, respectively, with cost/QALY ranging from $35,000 to $70,000 CAD. Maximizing PrEP efficacy, in a scenario of 25% coverage of high-risk MSM with PrEP, prevented 1540 infections with a cost/QALY of $15,000 CAD. HIV testing alone (Q3 months) averted 898 of infections with a cost savings of $4,000 CAD per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

The optimal implementation strategy for PrEP over the next 20 years at this urban centre is to target high-risk MSM and to maximize efficacy by supporting PrEP adherence. A large health benefit of PrEP implementation could come from engaging undiagnosed HIV-infected individuals into care.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV-1 prevention in the Netherlands: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir and emtricitabine prevents HIV infections among men who have sex with men (MSM). PrEP can be given on a daily or intermittent basis. Unfortunately, PrEP is not reimbursed in most European countries. Cost-effectiveness analyses of PrEP among MSM in Europe are absent but are key for decision makers to decide upon PrEP implementation.

METHODS

We developed a deterministic mathematical model, calibrated to the well defined Dutch HIV epidemic among MSM, to predict the effect and cost-effectiveness of PrEP. PrEP was targeted to 10% of highly sexually active Dutch MSM over the coming 40 years. Cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated to predict the cost-effectiveness of daily and on-demand PrEP. Cost-effectiveness ratios below €20 000 were considered to be cost-effective in this analysis.

FINDINGS

Within the context of a stable HIV epidemic, at 80% effectiveness and current PrEP pricing, PrEP can cost as much as €11 000 (IQR 9400-14 100) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained when used daily, or as little as €2000 (IQR 1300-3000) per QALY gained when used on demand. At 80% effectiveness, daily PrEP can be considered cost-saving if the price of PrEP is reduced by 70%, and on-demand PrEP can be considered cost-saving if the price is reduced by 30-40%.

INTERPRETATION

PrEP for HIV prevention among MSM in the Netherlands is cost-effective. The use of PrEP is most cost-effective when the price of PrEP is reduced through on-demand use or through availability of generic PrEP, and can quickly be considered cost-saving.

FUNDING

None.

Potential impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis for female sex workers and men who have sex with men in Bangalore, India: a mathematical modelling study

INTRODUCTION

In Bangalore, new HIV infections of female sex workers and men who have sex with men continue to occur, despite high condom use. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has high anti-HIV efficacy for men who have sex with men. PrEP demonstration projects are underway amongst Indian female sex workers. We estimated the impact and efficiency of prioritizing PrEP to female sex workers and/or men who have sex with men in Bangalore.

METHODS

A mathematical model of HIV transmission and treatment for female sex workers, clients, men who have sex with men and low-risk groups was parameterized and fitted to Bangalore data. The proportion of transmission attributable (population attributable fraction) to commercial sex and sex between men was calculated. PrEP impact (infections averted, life-years gained) and efficiency (life-years gained/infections averted per 100 person-years on PrEP) were estimated for different levels of PrEP adherence, coverage and prioritization strategies (female sex workers, high-risk men who have sex with men, both female sex workers and high-risk men who have sex with men, or female sex workers with lower condom use), under current conditions and in a scenario with lower baseline condom use amongst key populations.

RESULTS

Population attributable fractions for commercial sex and sex between men have declined over time, and they are predicted to account for 19% of all new infections between 2016 and 2025. PrEP could prevent a substantial proportion of infections amongst female sex workers and men who have sex with men in this setting (23%/27% over 5/10 years, with 60% coverage and 50% adherence), which could avert 2.9%/4.3% of infections over 5/10 years in the whole Bangalore population. Impact and efficiency in the whole population was greater if female sex workers were prioritized. Efficiency increased, but impact decreased, if only female sex workers with lower condom use were given PrEP. Greater impact and efficiency was predicted for the scenario with lower condom use.

CONCLUSIONS

PrEP could be beneficial for female sex workers and men who have sex with men in Bangalore, and give some benefits in the general population, especially in similar settings with lower condom use levels.

Motives of Dutch men who have sex with men for daily and intermittent HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis usage and preferences for implementation: A qualitative study

Although PrEP is not yet registered in Europe, including the Netherlands, its approval and implementation are expected in the near future. To inform future pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) implementation, this study aimed to gain insight into motives and preferences for daily or intermittent PrEP use among Dutch HIV-negative men having sex with men (MSM).Between February and December 2013, semistructured interviews were conducted until data saturation was reached (N = 20). Interviews were analyzed using the Grounded Theory approach.Motives for (not) using daily PrEP were based on beliefs about PrEP efficacy and side effects, preferences for other prevention strategies, self-perceived HIV risk, self-perceived efficacy of PrEP adherence, beliefs about possible benefits (e.g., anxiety reduction, sex life improvement), and barriers of PrEP use (e.g., costs, monitoring procedures). The perceived benefits of intermittent versus daily PrEP use were the lower costs and side effects and the lower threshold to decision to start using intermittent PrEP. Barriers of intermittent PrEP versus daily PrEP use were the perceived need to plan their sex life and adhere to multiple prevention strategies. Although some perceived PrEP as a condom substitute, others were likely to combine PrEP and condoms for sexually transmitted infections (STI) prevention and increased HIV protection. Participants preferred PrEP service locations to have specialized knowledge of HIV, antiretroviral therapy, sexual behavior, STIs, patients' medical background, be easily approachable, be able to perform PrEP follow-up monitoring, and provide support.To maximize the public health impact of PrEP, ensuring high uptake among MSM at highest risk is important. Therefore, targeted information about PrEP efficacy and side effects need to be developed, barriers for accessing PrEP services should be minimized, and perceived self-efficacy to use PrEP should be addressed and improved. To prevent increases in STIs, condom use should be monitored and PrEP should be integrated into routine STI screening and counseling.

Protocol for an open-label, single-arm trial of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among people at high risk of HIV infection: the NSW Demonstration Project PRELUDE

INTRODUCTION

Despite a number of HIV prevention strategies, the number of new HIV infections remains high. In Australia, over three-quarters of new HIV diagnoses are in gay and bisexual men (GBM). Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has been shown to be effective at preventing new HIV infections in several randomised trials. The PRELUDE study aims to evaluate the implementation of PrEP in healthcare settings in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, among a sample of high-risk adults.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

PRELUDE is an ongoing open-label, single-arm demonstration project, conducted in public and private clinics across NSW, Australia. Enrolment began in November 2014. The study is designed for 300 high-risk participants-mainly GBM and heterosexual women. Participants receive daily oral PrEP, composed of emtricitabine (FTC) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), for up to 2.5 years. Quarterly study visits include testing for HIV and sexually transmitted infections (STIs), assessment of ongoing eligibility and side effects, and self-reported adherence. Following each study visit, online behavioural surveys are administered to collect information on medication adherence, risk behaviours and attitudes. Blood samples will be collected in a subset of patients 1, 6 and 12 months after PrEP initiation to measure FTC/TDF concentrations. Analyses using longitudinal regression models will focus on feasibility, adherence, safety, tolerability and effects of PrEP on behaviour. This study will inform PrEP policy and guide the implementation of PrEP in Australia in people at high risk of HIV.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study will be conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki. All patients will provide written informed consent prior to participation in the study. Publications relating to each of the primary end points will be gradually released after 12 months of follow-up is complete.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02206555; Pre-results.

An Economic Analysis of Strategies to Control Clostridium Difficile Transmission and Infection Using an Agent-Based Simulation Model

Background

A number of strategies exist to reduce Clostridium difficile (C. difficile) transmission. We conducted an economic evaluation of “bundling” these strategies together.

Methods

We constructed an agent-based computer simulation of nosocomial C. difficile transmission and infection in a hospital setting. This model included the following components: interactions between patients and health care workers; room contamination via C. difficile shedding; C. difficile hand carriage and removal via hand hygiene; patient acquisition of C. difficile via contact with contaminated rooms or health care workers; and patient antimicrobial use. Six interventions were introduced alone and "bundled" together: (a) aggressive C. difficile testing; (b) empiric isolation and treatment of symptomatic patients; (c) improved adherence to hand hygiene and (d) contact precautions; (e) improved use of soap and water for hand hygiene; and (f) improved environmental cleaning. Our analysis compared these interventions using values representing 3 different scenarios: (1) base-case (BASE) values that reflect typical hospital practice, (2) intervention (INT) values that represent implementation of hospital-wide efforts to reduce C. diff transmission, and (3) optimal (OPT) values representing the highest expected results from strong adherence to the interventions. Cost parameters for each intervention were obtained from published literature. We performed our analyses assuming low, normal, and high C. difficile importation prevalence and transmissibility of C. difficile.

Results

INT levels of the “bundled” intervention were cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year in all importation prevalence and transmissibility scenarios. OPT levels of intervention were cost-effective for normal and high importation prevalence and transmissibility scenarios. When analyzed separately, hand hygiene compliance, environmental decontamination, and empiric isolation and treatment were the interventions that had the greatest impact on both cost and effectiveness.

Conclusions

A combination of available interventions to prevent CDI is likely to be cost-effective but the cost-effectiveness varies for different levels of intensity of the interventions depending on epidemiological conditions such as C. difficile importation prevalence and transmissibility.

An analysis of baseline data from the PROUD study: an open-label randomised trial of pre-exposure prophylaxis

Background

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has proven biological efficacy to reduce the sexual acquisition of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The PROUD study found that PrEP conferred higher protection than in placebo-controlled trials, reducing HIV incidence by 86 % in a population with seven-fold higher HIV incidence than expected. We present the baseline characteristics of the PROUD study population and place the findings in the context of national sexual health clinic data.

Methods

The PROUD study was designed to explore the real-world effectiveness of PrEP (tenofovir-emtricitabine) by randomising HIV-negative gay and other men who have sex with men (GMSM) to receive open-label PrEP immediately or after a deferral period of 12 months. At enrolment, participants self-completed two baseline questionnaires collecting information on demographics, sexual behaviour and lifestyle in the last 30 and 90 days. These data were compared to data from HIV-negative GMSM attending sexual health clinics in 2013, collated by Public Health England using the genitourinary medicine clinic activity database (GUMCAD).

Results

The median age of participants was 35 (IQR: 29–43). Typically participants were white (81 %), educated at a university level (61 %) and in full-time employment (72 %). Of all participants, 217 (40 %) were born outside the UK. A sexually transmitted infection (STI) was reported to have been diagnosed in the previous 12 months in 330/515 (64 %) and 473/544 (87 %) participants reported ever having being diagnosed with an STI. At enrolment, 47/280 (17 %) participants were diagnosed with an STI. Participants reported a median (IQR) of 10 (5–20) partners in the last 90 days, a median (IQR) of 2 (1–5) were condomless sex acts where the participant was receptive and 2 (1–6) were condomless where the participant was insertive. Post-exposure prophylaxis had been prescribed to 184 (34 %) participants in the past 12 months. The number of STI diagnoses was high compared to those reported in GUMCAD attendees.

Conclusions

The PROUD study population are at substantially higher risk of acquiring HIV infection sexually than the overall population of GMSM attending sexual health clinics in England. These findings contribute to explaining the extraordinary HIV incidence rate during follow-up and demonstrate that, despite broad eligibility criteria, the population interested in PrEP was highly selective.

Trial registration

Current Controlled TrialsISRCTN94465371. Date of registration: 28 February 2013.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13063-016-1286-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Dramatic increase in preexposure prophylaxis use among MSM in Washington state

OBJECTIVE

HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is efficacious, but uptake has been slow. In Washington State, most insurance plans, including Medicaid, pay for PrEP, and the state supports a PrEP drug assistance program. We assessed trends in PrEP awareness and use among MSM in Washington.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Serial cross-sectional survey conducted annually at the Seattle Pride Parade between 2009 and 2015.

METHODS

In a convenience sample of MSM who reside in Washington State and deny ever testing HIV positive (n = 2168), we evaluated the association between calendar year and self-report of PrEP uptake and awareness using descriptive statistics and multivariable relative risk and logistic regression. Regression models included HIV risk and demographic covariates.

RESULTS

In 2015, 23% [95% confidence interval (CI): 16%, 31%] of high-risk MSM reported currently taking PrEP. The percentage of high-risk MSM who reported ever taking PrEP increased from 5% in 2012 to 31% in 2015. PrEP use among lower-risk MSM was low and stable, between 1 and 3% in 2012-2015. In multivariable analyses, PrEP use was associated with later calendar years (2015 vs. 2012: adjusted relative risk = 2.29, 95% CI: 1.16, 4.52) and elevated HIV risk (adjusted relative risk = 2.92, 95% CI: 2.00, 4.25). The percentage of high and lower-risk MSM who had heard of PrEP increased from 13 to 86% and from 29 to 58%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

PrEP awareness is high and the use has rapidly increased over the last year among MSM in Seattle, Washington, USA. These findings demonstrate that high levels of PrEP use can be achieved among MSM at high-risk for HIV infection.

Antiretrovirals for primary HIV prevention: the current status of pre- and post-exposure prophylaxis

In light of the 2 million HIV infections that occur globally each year, there is a need to optimize strategies that integrate biomedical and behavioral approaches to HIV prevention. Post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) immediately after acute high-risk exposures and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for those who engage in recurrent high-risk behaviors are promising bio-behavioral approaches to decreasing HIV transmission. Guidelines have recommended PEP for occupational and non-occupational exposures for over 15 years, but uptake of PEP has been limited, partly as a result of insufficient awareness of this intervention among persons at highest risk for acquiring HIV. However, since the publication of large randomized clinical trials demonstrating the efficacy of PrEP, and the dissemination of guidelines endorsing its use, there is a renewed focus on bio-behavioral prevention. Numerous studies have recently assessed the acceptability of bio-behavioral prevention programs among diverse populations or described experiences implementing these programs in "real-world" settings. As research and clinical data informing optimal utilization of PEP and PrEP are rapidly accumulating, this review provides a timely summary of recent progress in bio-behavioral prevention. By contextualizing the most noteworthy recent findings regarding PEP and PrEP, this review seeks to inform the successful implementation of these promising prevention approaches.