Cohort Profile: The Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (Health 2020)

Waist Circumference, a Body Shape Index, and Molecular Subtypes of Colorectal Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of Four Cohort Studies

BACKGROUND

Waist circumference (WC) and its allometric counterpart, "a body shape index" (ABSI), are risk factors for colorectal cancer; however, it is uncertain whether associations with these body measurements are limited to specific molecular subtypes of the disease.

METHODS

Data from 2,772 colorectal cancer cases and 3,521 controls were pooled from four cohort studies within the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium. Four molecular markers (BRAF mutation, KRAS mutation, CpG island methylator phenotype, and microsatellite instability) were analyzed individually and in combination (Jass types). Multivariable logistic and multinomial logistic models were used to assess the associations of WC and ABSI with overall colorectal cancer risk and, in case-only analyses, to evaluate heterogeneity by molecular subtype, respectively.

RESULTS

Higher WC (ORper 5 cm = 1.06, 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.09) and ABSI (ORper 1-SD = 1.07, 95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.14) were associated with elevated colorectal cancer risk. There was no evidence of heterogeneity between the molecular subtypes. No difference was observed regarding the influence of WC and ABSI on the four major molecular markers in proximal colon, distal colon, and rectal cancers, as well as in early- and late-onset colorectal cancers. Associations did not differ in the Jass-type analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher WC and ABSI were associated with elevated colorectal cancer risk; however, they do not differentially influence all four major molecular mutations involved in colorectal carcinogenesis but underscore the importance of maintaining a healthy body weight in colorectal cancer prevention.

IMPACT

The proposed results have potential utility in colorectal cancer prevention.

Insulin and Insulin-like Growth Factor and Risk of Postmenopausal Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer: A Case-Cohort Analysis

BACKGROUND

Higher concentration of insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) increases postmenopausal breast cancer risk, but evidence for insulin and c-peptide is limited. Furthermore, not all studies have accounted for potential confounding by biomarkers from other biological pathways, and not all were restricted to estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer.

METHODS

This was a case-cohort study of 1,223 postmenopausal women (347 with ER-positive breast cancer) from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. We measured insulin, c-peptide, IGF-1, insulin-like growth factor binding protein-3, and biomarkers of inflammatory and sex-steroid hormone pathways. Poisson regression with a robust variance estimator was used to estimate risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for ER-positive breast cancer per doubling plasma concentration and for quartiles, without and with adjustment for other, potentially confounding biomarkers.

RESULTS

ER-positive breast cancer risk was not associated with doubling of insulin (RR = 0.97, 95% CI, 0.82-1.14) or c-peptide (RR = 1.01, 95% CI, 0.80-1.26). Risk seemed to decrease with doubling IGF-1 (RR = 0.80, 95% CI, 0.62-1.03) and insulin-like growth factor binding protein-3 (RR = 0.62, 95% CI, 0.41-0.90). RRs were not meaningfully different when exposures were modeled as quartiles. RRs were less than unity but imprecise after adjustment for inflammatory and sex-steroid hormone biomarkers.

CONCLUSIONS

Circulating insulin, c-peptide, and IGF-1 were not positively associated with risk of ER-positive breast cancer in this case-cohort analysis of postmenopausal women.

IMPACT

Associations between insulin and c-peptide and risk of ER-positive breast cancer in postmenopausal women are likely to be weak.

Physical activity and DNA methylation-based markers of ageing in 6208 middle-aged and older Australians: cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses

Epigenetic age quantifies biological age using DNA methylation information and is a potential pathway by which physical activity benefits general health. We aimed to assess the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between physical activity and epigenetic age in middle-aged and older Australians. Blood DNA methylation data for 6208 participants (40% female) in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS) were available at baseline (1990-1994, mean age, 59 years) and, of those, for 1009 at follow-up (2003-2007, mean age, 69 years). Physical activity measurements (weighted scores at baseline and follow-up and total MET hours per week at follow-up) were calculated from self-reported questionnaire data. Five blood methylation-based markers of ageing (PCGrimAge, PCPhenoAge, bAge, DNAmFitAge, and DunedinPACE) and four fitness-related markers (DNAmGaitspeed, DNAmGripmax, DNAmVO2max, and DNAmFEV1) were calculated and adjusted for age. Linear regression was used to examine the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between physical activity and epigenetic age. Effect modification by age, sex, and BMI was assessed. At baseline, a standard deviation (SD) increment in physical activity was associated with 0.03-SD (DNAmFitAge, 95%CI = 0.01, 0.06, P = 0.02) to 0.07-SD (bAge, 95%CI = 0.04, 0.09, P = 2 × 10-8) lower epigenetic age. These associations were attenuated after adjustment for other lifestyle variables. Only weak evidence was found for the longitudinal association (N = 1009) of changes in physical activity and epigenetic age (e.g. DNAmFitAge: adjusted β =  - 0.04, 95%CI =  - 0.08, 0.01). The associations were not modified by age, sex, or BMI. In middle-aged and older Australians, higher levels of self-reported physical activity were associated with slightly lower epigenetic age.

Intratumoural pks+Escherichia coli is associated with risk of metachronous colorectal cancer and adenoma development in people with Lynch syndrome

BACKGROUND

The adverse gut microbiome may underlie the variability in risks of colorectal cancer (CRC) and metachronous CRC in people with Lynch syndrome (LS). The role of pks+/-Escherichia coli (pks+/-E. coli), Enterotoxigenic Bacteroides fragilis (ETBF), and Fusobacterium nucleatum (Fn) in CRCs and adenomas in people with LS is unknown.

METHODS

A total of 358 LS cases, including 386 CRCs, 90 adenomas, 195 normal colonic mucosa DNA from the Australasian Colon Cancer Family Registry were tested using multiplex TaqMan qPCR. Logistic regression was used to compare the intratumoural prevalence of each bacteria in Lynch CRCs with 1336 sporadic CRCs. Cox proportional-hazards regression estimated the associations of each bacteria with the risk of metachronous CRC and neoplasia.

FINDINGS

Pks+ E. coli (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] = 1.60 [1.08-2.35], P = 0.017), pks-E. coli (3.87 [2.58-5.80], P < 0.001) and Fn (19.47 [13.32-28.87], P < 0.001) were significantly enriched in LS CRCs when compared with sporadic CRCs. Pks+ E. coli in the initial CRC was associated with an increased risk of metachronous CRC (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] = 2.32 [1.29-4.17], P = 0.005) and metachronous colorectal neoplasia (1.51 [1.02-2.23], P = 0.040) when compared with CRCs without pks+ E. coli.

INTERPRETATION

Pks+ E. coli, pks-E. coli, and Fn are enriched within LS CRCs, suggesting possible roles in CRC development in LS. Having intratumoural pks+ E. coli is associated with increased risk of metachronous CRC, suggesting that, if validated, people with LS might benefit from pks+ E. coli screening and eradication.

FUNDING

This work was funded by an NHMRC Investigator grant (GNT1194896) and a Cancer Australia/Cancer Council NSW co-funded grant (GNT2012914).

Diet and survival after a diagnosis of ovarian cancer: a pooled analysis from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium

BACKGROUND

Prognosis after a diagnosis of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer is poor. Some studies have suggested modifiable behaviors, like diet, are associated with survival but the evidence is inconsistent.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to pool data from studies conducted around the world to evaluate the relationships among dietary indices, foods, and nutrients from food sources and survival after a diagnosis of ovarian cancer.

METHODS

This analysis from the Multidisciplinary Ovarian Cancer Outcomes Group within the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium included 13 studies with 7700 individuals with ovarian cancer, who completed food-frequency questionnaires regarding their prediagnosis diet. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations with overall survival were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Overall, there was no association between any of the 7 dietary indices (representing prediagnosis diet) evaluated and survival; however, associations differed by tumor stage. Although there were no consistent associations among those with advanced disease, among those with earlier stage (local/regional) disease, higher scores on the alternate Healthy Eating Index (aHR quartile 4 compared with 1 = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.50, 0.87), Healthy Eating Index-2015 (aHR: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.59, 0.97), and alternate Mediterranean diet (aHR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.60, 0.98) were associated with better survival. Better survival was also observed for individuals with early-stage disease who reported higher intakes of dietary components that contribute to the healthy diet indices (aHR for Q4 compared with Q1: vegetables 0.71; 95% CI: 0.56, 0.91), tomatoes (aHR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.57, 0.91) and nuts and seeds (aHR 0.71; 95% CI: 0.55, 0.92). In contrast, there were suggestions of worse survival with higher scores on 2 of the 3 inflammatory indices and higher intake of trans-fatty acids.

CONCLUSIONS

Adherence to a more healthy, less-inflammatory diet may confer a survival benefit for individuals with early-stage ovarian cancer.

Dietary factors and DNA methylation-based markers of ageing in 5310 middle-aged and older Australian adults

The role of nutrition in healthy ageing is acknowledged but details of optimal dietary composition are still uncertain. We aimed to investigate the cross-sectional associations between dietary exposures, including macronutrient composition, food groups, specific foods, and overall diet quality, with methylation-based markers of ageing. Blood DNA methylation data from 5310 participants (mean age 59 years) in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study were used to calculate five methylation-based measures of ageing: PCGrimAge, PCPhenoAge, DunedinPACE, ZhangAge, TelomereAge. For a range of dietary exposures, we estimated (i) the 'equal-mass substitution effect', which quantifies the effect of adding the component of interest to the diet while keeping overall food mass constant, and (ii) the 'total effect', which quantifies the effect of adding the component of interest to the current diet. For 'equal-mass substitution effects', the strongest association for macronutrients was for fibre intake (e.g. DunedinPACE, per 12 g/day - 0.10 [standard deviations]; 95%CI - 0.15, - 0.05, p < 0.001). Associations were positive for protein (e.g. PCGrimAge, per 33 g/day 0.04; 95%CI 0.01-0.08, p = 0.005). For food groups, the evidence tended to be weak, though sugar-sweetened drinks showed positive associations, as did artificially-sweetened drinks (e.g. DunedinPACE, per 91 g/day 0.06, 95%CI 0.03-0.08, p < 0.001). 'Total effect' estimates were generally very similar. Scores reflecting overall diet quality suggested that healthier diets were associated with lower levels of ageing markers. High intakes of fibre and low intakes of protein and sweetened drinks, as well as overall healthy diets, showed the most consistent associations with lower methylation-based ageing in our study.

Estimating the Burden of Common Mental Disorders Attributable to Lifestyle Factors: Protocol for the Global Burden of Disease Lifestyle and Mental Disorder (GLAD) Project

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) collects and calculates risk-outcome data for modifiable lifestyle exposures (eg, dietary intake) and physical health outcomes (eg, cancers). These estimates form a critical digital resource tool, the GBD VizHub data visualization tool, for governments and policy makers to guide local, regional, and global health decisions. Despite evidence showing the contributions of lifestyle exposures to common mental disorders (CMDs), such as depression and anxiety, GBD does not currently generate these lifestyle exposure-mental disorder outcome pairings. This gap is due to a lack of uniformly collected and analyzed data about these exposures as they relate to CMDs. Such data are required to quantify whether, and to what degree, the global burden of CMDs could be reduced by targeting lifestyle factors at regional and global levels. We have established the Global burden of disease Lifestyle And mental Disorder (GLAD) Taskforce to address this gap.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to generate the necessary estimates to afford the inclusion of lifestyle exposures as risk factors for CMDs in the GBD study and the GBD digital visualization tools, initially focusing on the relationship between dietary intake and CMDs.

METHODS

The GLAD project is a multicenter, collaborative effort to integrate lifestyle exposures as risk factors for CMDs in the GBD study. To achieve this aim, global epidemiological studies will be recruited to conduct harmonized data analyses estimating the risk, odds, or hazards of lifestyle exposures with CMD outcomes. Initially, these models will focus on the relationship between dietary intake, as defined by the GBD, and anxiety and depression.

RESULTS

As of August 2024, 18 longitudinal cohort studies from 9 countries (Australia: n=4; Brazil: n=1; France: n=1; Italy: n=3; The Netherlands: n=3; New Zealand: n=1; South Africa: n=1; Spain: n=1; and United Kingdom: n=3) have agreed to participate in the GLAD project.

CONCLUSIONS

Our comprehensive, collaborative approach allows for the concurrent execution of a harmonized statistical analysis protocol across multiple, internationally renowned epidemiological cohorts. These results will be used to inform the GBD study and incorporate lifestyle risk factors for CMD in the GBD digital platform. Consequently, given the worldwide influence of the GBD study, findings from the GLAD project can offer valuable insights to policy makers worldwide around lifestyle-based mental health care.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/65576.

Breast tumors from ATM pathogenic variant carriers display a specific genome-wide DNA methylation profile

BACKGROUND

The ataxia-telangiectasia mutated (ATM) kinase phosphorylates and activates several downstream targets that are essential for DNA damage repair, cell cycle inhibition and apoptosis. Germline biallelic inactivation of the ATM gene causes ataxia-telangiectasia (A-T), and heterozygous pathogenic variant (PV) carriers are at increased risk of cancer, notably breast cancer. This study aimed to investigate whether DNA methylation profiling can be useful as a biomarker to identify tumors arising in ATM PV carriers, which may help for the management and optimal tailoring of therapies of these patients.

METHODS

Breast tumor enriched DNA was prepared from 2 A-T patients, 27 patients carrying an ATM PV, 6 patients carrying a variant of uncertain clinical significance and 484 noncarriers enrolled in epidemiological studies conducted in France and Australia to investigate genetic and nongenetic factors involved in breast cancer susceptibility. Genome-wide DNA methylation analysis was performed using the Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation EPIC and 450K BeadChips. Correlation between promoter methylation and gene expression was assessed for 10 tumors for which transcriptomic data were available.

RESULTS

We found that the ATM promoter was hypermethylated in 62% of tumors of heterozygous PV carriers compared to the mean methylation level of ATM promoter in tumors of noncarriers. Gene set enrichment analyses identified 47 biological pathways enriched in hypermethylated genes involved in neoplastic, neurodegenerative and metabolic-related pathways in tumor of PV carriers. Among the 327 differentially methylated promoters, promoters of ARHGAP40, SCGB3A1 (HIN-1), and CYBRD1 (DCYTB) were hypermethylated and associated with a lower gene expression in these tumors. Moreover, using three different deep learning algorithms (logistic regression, random forest and XGBoost), we identified a set of 27 additional biomarkers predictive of ATM status, which could be used in the future to provide evidence for or against pathogenicity in ATM variant classification strategies.

CONCLUSIONS

We showed that breast tumors that arise in women who carry an ATM PV display a specific genome-wide DNA methylation profile. Specifically, the methylation pattern of 27 key gene promoters was predictive of ATM PV status of the women. These genes may also represent new medical prevention and therapeutic targets for these women.

Evaluation of agreement between common clustering strategies for DNA methylation-based subtyping of breast tumours

AIMS

Clustering algorithms have been widely applied to tumor DNA methylation datasets to define methylation-based cancer subtypes. This study aimed to evaluate the agreement between subtypes obtained from common clustering strategies.

MATERIALS & METHODS

We used tumor DNA methylation data from 409 women with breast cancer from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS) and 781 breast tumors from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Agreement was assessed using the adjusted Rand index for various combinations of number of CpGs, number of clusters and clustering algorithms (hierarchical, K-means, partitioning around medoids, and recursively partitioned mixture models).

RESULTS

Inconsistent agreement patterns were observed for between-algorithm and within-algorithm comparisons, with generally poor to moderate agreement (ARI <0.7). Results were qualitatively similar in the MCCS and TCGA, showing better agreement for moderate number of CpGs and fewer clusters (K = 2). Restricting the analysis to CpGs that were differentially-methylated between tumor and normal tissue did not result in higher agreement.

CONCLUSION

Our study highlights that common clustering strategies involving an arbitrary choice of algorithm, number of clusters and number of methylation sites are likely to identify different DNA methylation-based breast tumor subtypes.

Tumour DNA methylation markers associated with breast cancer survival: a replication study

BACKGROUND

Tumour DNA methylation has been investigated as a potential marker for breast cancer survival, but findings often lack replication across studies.

METHODS

This study sought to replicate previously reported associations for individual CpG sites and multi-CpG signatures using an Australian sample of 425 women with breast cancer from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS). Candidate methylation sites (N = 22) and signatures (N = 3) potentially associated with breast cancer survival were identified from five prior studies that used The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) methylation dataset, which shares key characteristics with the MCCS: comparable sample size, tissue type (formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded; FFPE), technology (Illumina HumanMethylation450 array), and participant characteristics (age, ancestry, and disease subtype and severity). Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were conducted to assess associations between these markers and both breast cancer-specific survival and overall survival, adjusting for relevant participant characteristics.

RESULTS

Our findings revealed partial replication for both individual CpG sites (9 out of 22) and multi-CpG signatures (2 out of 3). These associations were maintained after adjustment for participant characteristics and were stronger for breast cancer-specific mortality than for overall mortality. In fully-adjusted models, strong associations were observed for a CpG in PRAC2 (per standard deviation [SD], HR = 1.67, 95%CI: 1.24-2.25) and a signature based on 28 CpGs developed using elastic net (per SD, HR = 1.48, 95%CI: 1.09-2.00).

CONCLUSIONS

While further studies are needed to confirm and expand on these findings, our study suggests that DNA methylation markers hold promise for improving breast cancer prognostication.

Menopausal hormone therapy: assessing associations with breast and colorectal cancers by familial risk

Menopausal users of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) are at increased breast cancer risk and decreased colorectal cancer (CRC) risk compared with individuals who have never used HRT, but these opposing associations may differ by familial risk of breast cancer and CRC. We harmonized data from 3 cohorts and generated separate breast cancer and CRC familial risk scores based on cancer family history. We defined moderate or strong family history as a risk score of 0.4 or higher, where 0.4 was equivalent to a 50-year-old woman with 1 parent diagnosed with either breast cancer or CRC at 55 years of age. Of 24 486 women assessed, 1243 and 405 were diagnosed with incident breast cancer and CRC, respectively. For breast cancer, menopausal HRT ever use versus never use hazard ratios were 1.27 (95% CI = 1.11 to 1.45) for a breast cancer familial risk score below 0.4 and 1.01 (95% CI = 0.82 to 1.25) for a breast cancer familial risk score of 0.4 or higher (Pdifference = .08). For CRC, menopausal HRT hazard ratios were 0.63 (95% CI = 0.50 to 0.78) for a CRC familial risk score below 0.4 and 1.21 (95% CI = 0.73 to 2.00) for a CRC familial risk score of 0.4 or higher (Pdifference = .03). Associations with menopausal HRT use that apply to the general population may not hold for women at moderate or strong familial risk of these cancers.

Effects of Synbiotic Supplementation on Bone and Metabolic Health in Caucasian Postmenopausal Women: Rationale and Design of the OsteoPreP Trial

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Correction of decreased diversity of the gut microbiome, which is characteristic of menopause, by supplementation with a synbiotic may attenuate or prevent dysbiosis processes and preserve bone mass. We describe the rationale and design of the OsteoPreP trial aimed at evaluating the effects of 12 months of supplementation with a synbiotic on bone and metabolic health in postmenopausal Caucasian women.

METHODS

This is a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial among 160 Caucasian, postmenopausal women with no current diagnosis of osteoporosis or supplementation with pro- or prebiotics, and no medical treatment affecting bone turnover. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans will be conducted at screening to confirm absence of osteoporosis. The primary outcome is the relative change (%) in total bone mineral density of the distal tibia at 12 months post-treatment between the active and placebo groups, as determined via high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography. Secondary outcomes are the effects on immune system modulation and cognition, gut microbiota composition, and musculoskeletal and metabolic functions, with particular emphasis on blood glucose regulation.

CONCLUSIONS

The trial will inform on the efficacy and safety of a synbiotic containing both aerobic and anerobic bacterial strains and a prebiotic fiber on reduction in bone loss and on indices of blood glucose regulation. This trial may pave the way for an exciting field of translational research and be the underpinnings of the prevention strategy of osteoporosis and the management of metabolic dysfunction in postmenopausal women. The trial is registered with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT05348694).

Causation and familial confounding as explanations for the associations of polygenic risk scores with breast cancer: Evidence from innovative ICE FALCON and ICE CRISTAL analyses

A polygenic risk score (PRS) combines the associations of multiple genetic variants that could be due to direct causal effects, indirect genetic effects, or other sources of familial confounding. We have developed new approaches to assess evidence for and against causation by using family data for pairs of relatives (Inference about Causation from Examination of FAmiliaL CONfounding [ICE FALCON]) or measures of family history (Inference about Causation from Examining Changes in Regression coefficients and Innovative STatistical AnaLyses [ICE CRISTAL]). Inference is made from the changes in regression coefficients of relatives' PRSs or PRS and family history before and after adjusting for each other. We applied these approaches to two breast cancer PRSs and multiple studies and found that (a) for breast cancer diagnosed at a young age, for example, <50 years, there was no evidence that the PRSs were causal, while (b) for breast cancer diagnosed at later ages, there was consistent evidence for causation explaining increasing amounts of the PRS-disease association. The genetic variants in the PRS might be in linkage disequilibrium with truly causal variants and not causal themselves. These PRSs cause minimal heritability of breast cancer at younger ages. There is also evidence for nongenetic factors shared by first-degree relatives that explain breast cancer familial aggregation. Familial associations are not necessarily due to genes, and genetic associations are not necessarily causal.

Self-rated health, epigenetic ageing, and long-term mortality in older Australians

Self-rated health (SRH) is a subjective indicator of overall health based on a single questionnaire item. Previous evidence found that it is a strong predictor of mortality, although the underlying mechanism is poorly understood. Epigenetic age is an objective, emerging biomarker of health, estimated using DNA methylation data at hundreds of sites across the genome. This study aimed to assess the overlap and interaction between SRH and epigenetic ageing in predicting mortality risk. We used DNA methylation data from 1059 participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (mean age: 69 years) to calculate three age-adjusted measures of epigenetic ageing: GrimAge, PhenoAge, and DunedinPACE. SRH was assessed using a five-category questionnaire item ("excellent, very good, good, fair, poor"). Cox models were used to assess the associations of SRH, epigenetic ageing, and their interaction, with all-cause mortality over up to 17 years of follow-up (Ndeaths = 345). The association of SRH with mortality per category increase was HR = 1.29; 95%CI: 1.14-1.46. The association was slightly attenuated after adjusting for all three epigenetic ageing measures (HR = 1.25, 95%CI: 1.10-1.41). A strong gradient was observed in the association of GrimAge (Pinteraction = 0.006) and DunedinPACE (Pinteraction = 0.002) with mortality across worsening SRH strata. For example, the association between DunedinPACE and mortality in participants with "excellent" SRH was HR = 1.02, 95%CI: 0.73-1.43 and for "fair/poor" HR = 1.72, 95%CI: 1.35-2.20. SRH and epigenetic ageing were synergistic risk factors of mortality in our study. These findings suggest that consideration of subjective and objective factors may improve general health assessment, which has implications for the ongoing development of molecular markers of ageing.

Are the Relationships of Physical Activity and Television Viewing Time With Mortality Robust to Confounding? A Study, Utilizing E-Values, From the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Physical activity and sedentary behavior are associated with health outcomes. However, evidence may be affected by confounding bias. This study aimed to examine the relationships of physical activity and television (TV) viewing time with all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality in a cohort of Australian adults, and determine the robustness of these relationships to residual and unmeasured confounding.

METHODS

Data from 27,317 Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study participants (mean age = 66) were used. Physical activity was assessed using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire-Short Form and categorized as insufficient, sufficient, or more than sufficient. TV viewing time was categorized as low, moderate, or high. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to evaluate associations of interest. E-values were calculated to assess the strength of unmeasured confounders required to negate the observed results.

RESULTS

For highest versus lowest physical activity category, the hazard ratio was 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.56-0.81) for all-cause mortality; E-values ranged between 1.79 and 2.44. Results were similar for cardiovascular mortality; however, hazard ratios were lower (0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.51-1.01) and E-values much smaller (1.00-2.12) for cancer mortality. For highest versus lowest TV viewing time category, the hazard ratio was 1.08 (1.01-1.15) for all-cause mortality; E-values ranged between 1.00 and 1.37. Results were similar for cardiovascular and cancer mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Physical activity and TV viewing time were associated with mortality. The robustness to unmeasured/residual confounding was moderate for physical activity (all-cause and cardiovascular mortality), but weaker for physical activity (cancer mortality) and TV viewing time in this study of Australian adults.

Calcium intake and genetic variants in the calcium sensing receptor in relation to colorectal cancer mortality: an international consortium study of 18,952 patients

Background

Research on calcium intake as well as variants in the calcium sensor receptor (CaSR) gene and their interaction in relation to CRC survival is still limited.

Methods

Data from 18,952 CRC patients, were included. Associations between primarily pre-diagnostic dietary (n = 13.085), supplemental (n = 11,837), total calcium intake (n = 5970) as well as 325 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the CaSR gene (n = 15,734) in relation to CRC-specific and all-cause mortality were assessed using Cox proportional hazard models. Also interactions between calcium intake and variants in the CaSR gene were assessed.

Results

During a median follow-up of 4.8 years (IQR 2.4-8.4), 6801 deaths occurred, of which 4194 related to CRC. For all-cause mortality, no associations were observed for the highest compared to the lowest sex- and study-specific quartile of dietary (HR 1.00, 95%CI 0.92-1.09), supplemental (HR 0.97, 95%CI 0.89-1.06) and total calcium intake (HR 0.99, 95%CI 0.88-1.11). No associations with CRC-specific mortality were observed either. Interactions were observed between supplemental calcium intake and several SNPs of the CaSR gene.

Conclusion

Calcium intake was not associated with all-cause or CRC-specific mortality in CRC patients. The association between supplemental calcium intake and all-cause and CRC-specific mortality may be modified by genetic variants in the CaSR gene.

Association of low carbohydrate diet score with the risk of type 2 diabetes in an Australian population: A longitudinal study

AIMS

We aimed to assess the association of a low carbohydrate diet score (LCD) with the incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) using Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS) data.

METHODS

Between 1990 and 1994, the MCCS recruited 41,513 people aged 40-69 years. The first and second follow-ups were conducted in 1995-1998 and 2003-2007, respectively. We analyzed data from 39,185 participants. LCD score was calculated at baseline as the percentage of energy from carbohydrate, fat, and protein. The higher the score the less percentage of carbohydrates contributed to energy intake. The association of LCD quintiles with the incidence of diabetes was assessed using modified Poisson regression, adjusted for lifestyle, obesity, socioeconomic and other confounders. Mediation of the association by adiposity (BMI) was assessed.

RESULTS

LCD was positively associated with diabetes risk. Higher LCD score (p for trend = 0.001) was associated with increased risk of T2D. Quintile 5 (38 % energy from carbohydrates) versus quintile 1 (55 % energy from carbohydrates) showed a 20 % increased diabetes risk (incidence risk ratio (IRR) = 1.20 (95 % CI: 1.05-1.37)). A further adjustment for BMI (Body Mass Index) and WHR (Waist-to-Hip-Ratio) eliminated the association. Mediation analysis demonstrated that BMI mediated 76 % of the LCD & diabetes association.

CONCLUSIONS

Consuming a low carbohydrate diet, reflected as a high LCD score, may increase the risk of T2D which is largely explained by obesity. Results highlight the need for further studies, including clinical trials investigating the effects of a low carbohydrate diet in T2D.

Sex-steroid hormones and risk of postmenopausal estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: a case-cohort analysis

PURPOSE

Sex-steroid hormones are associated with postmenopausal breast cancer but potential confounding from other biological pathways is rarely considered. We estimated risk ratios for sex-steroid hormone biomarkers in relation to postmenopausal estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer, while accounting for biomarkers from insulin/insulin-like growth factor-signaling and inflammatory pathways.

METHODS

This analysis included 1208 women from a case-cohort study of postmenopausal breast cancer within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Weighted Poisson regression with a robust variance estimator was used to estimate risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancer, per doubling plasma concentration of progesterone, estrogens, androgens, and sex-hormone binding globulin (SHBG). Analyses included sociodemographic and lifestyle confounders, and other biomarkers identified as potential confounders.

RESULTS

Increased risks of postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancer were observed per doubling plasma concentration of progesterone (RR: 1.22, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.44), androstenedione (RR 1.20, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.45), dehydroepiandrosterone (RR: 1.15, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.34), total testosterone (RR: 1.11, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.29), free testosterone (RR: 1.12, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.28), estrone (RR 1.21, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.48), total estradiol (RR 1.19, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.39) and free estradiol (RR 1.22, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.41). A possible decreased risk was observed for SHBG (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.05).

CONCLUSION

Progesterone, estrogens and androgens likely increase postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancer risk, whereas SHBG may decrease risk. These findings strengthen the causal evidence surrounding the sex-hormone-driven nature of postmenopausal breast cancer.

Intratumoral presence of the genotoxic gut bacteria pks+ E. coli, Enterotoxigenic Bacteroides fragilis, and Fusobacterium nucleatum and their association with clinicopathological and molecular features of colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate clinicopathological and molecular tumour features associated with intratumoral pks+ Escherichia coli (pks+E.coli+), pks+E.coli- (non-E.coli bacteria harbouring the pks island), Enterotoxigenic Bacteroides fragilis (ETBF) and Fusobacterium nucleatum (F. nucleatum).

METHODS

We screened 1697 tumour-derived DNA samples from the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry, Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study and the ANGELS study using targeted PCR.

RESULTS

Pks+E.coli+ was associated with male sex (P < 0.01) and APC:c.835-8 A > G somatic mutation (P = 0.03). The association between pks+E.coli+ and APC:c.835-8 A > G was specific to early-onset CRCs (diagnosed<45years, P = 0.02). The APC:c.835-A > G was not associated with pks+E.coli- (P = 0.36). F. nucleatum was associated with DNA mismatch repair deficiency (MMRd), BRAF:c.1799T>A p.V600E mutation, CpG island methylator phenotype, proximal tumour location, and high levels of tumour infiltrating lymphocytes (Ps < 0.01). In the stratified analysis by MMRd subgroups, F. nucleatum was associated with Lynch syndrome, MLH1 methylated and double MMR somatic mutated MMRd subgroups (Ps < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Intratumoral pks+E.coli+ but not pks+E.coli- are associated with CRCs harbouring the APC:c.835-8 A > G somatic mutation, suggesting that this mutation is specifically related to DNA damage from colibactin-producing E.coli exposures. F. nucleatum was associated with both hereditary and sporadic MMRd subtypes, suggesting the MMRd tumour microenvironment is important for F. nucleatum colonisation irrespective of its cause.

Adherence to 2018 WCRF/AICR Cancer Prevention Recommendations and Risk of Cancer: The Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

We examined associations between adherence to adaptations of the 2018 World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) cancer prevention recommendations and total, exposure-related and site-specific cancer risk.

METHODS

A total of 20,001 participants ages 40 to 69 years at enrollment into the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study in 1990 to 1994, who had diet, body size, and lifestyle reassessed in 2003 to 2007 ("baseline"), were followed-up through June 2021. We constructed diet and standardized lifestyle scores based on core WCRF/AICR recommendations on diet, alcohol intake, body size and physical activity, and additional scores incorporating weight change, sedentary behavior, and smoking. Associations with cancer risk were estimated using Cox regression, adjusting for confounders.

RESULTS

During follow-up (mean = 16 years), 4,710 incident cancers were diagnosed. For highest quintile ("most adherent") of the standardized lifestyle score, compared with lowest ("least adherent"), a HR of 0.82 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.74-0.92] was observed for total cancer. This association was stronger with smoking included in the score (HR = 0.74; 95% CI: 0.67-0.81). A higher score was associated with lower breast and prostate cancer risk for the standardized score, and with lung, stomach, rectal, and pancreatic cancer risk when the score included smoking. Our analyses identified alcohol use, waist circumference and smoking as key drivers of associations with total cancer risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Adherence to WCRF/AICR cancer prevention recommendations is associated with lower cancer risk.

IMPACT

With <0.2% of our sample fully adherent to the recommendations, the study emphasizes the vast potential for preventing cancer through modulation of lifestyle habits.

Sex-steroid hormones and risk of postmenopausal estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: a case-cohort analysis

Purpose

Sex-steroid hormones are associated with postmenopausal breast cancer but potential confounding from other biological pathways is rarely considered. We estimated risk ratios for sex-steroid hormone biomarkers in relation to postmenopausal estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer, while accounting for biomarkers from insulin/insulin-like growth factor-signaling and inflammatory pathways.

Methods

This analysis included 1,208 women from a case-cohort study of postmenopausal breast cancer within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Weighted Poisson regression with a robust variance estimator was used to estimate risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancer, per doubling plasma concentration of progesterone, estrogens, androgens, and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG). Analyses included sociodemographic and lifestyle confounders, and other biomarkers identified as potential confounders.

Results

Increased risks of postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancer were observed per doubling plasma concentration of progesterone (RR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.44), androstenedione (RR: 1.20, 95% CI: 0.99 to 1.45), dehydroepiandrosterone (RR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.34), total testosterone (RR: 1.11, 95% CI: 0.96 to 1.29), free testosterone (RR: 1.12, 95% CI: 0.98 to 1.28), estrone (RR: 1.21, 95% CI: 0.99 to 1.48), total estradiol (RR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.39) and free estradiol (RR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.41). A possible decreased risk was observed for SHBG (RR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.66 to 1.05).

Conclusion

Progesterone, estrogens and androgens likely increase postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancer risk, whereas SHBG may decrease risk. These findings strengthen the causal evidence surrounding the sex hormone-driven nature of postmenopausal breast cancer.

The Relationship Between Psychological Distress and Physical Activity Is Non-linear and Differs by Domain: a Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

There is increasing evidence for the relationship between physical activity (PA), sedentary behaviour and mental health. Limited data exists on sex-specific associations. We aimed to identify associations between PA dose and domain and television time with psychological distress, including sex-stratified models.

METHODS

A total of 22,176 adults from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study follow-up 2 cohort (2003-2007) participated in this cross-sectional study. Occupational, household, transport, leisure PA, hours watching television and psychological distress were assessed. Restricted cubic splines were used to examine the relationships between PA domains, television viewing time and psychological distress.

RESULTS

The relationships between PA and psychological distress were non-linear (p < 0.05) and differed by PA domain. There were dose-dependent, inverse associations between distress with transport (B[95% CI] = -0.39[-0.49, -0.30]) and leisure PA (B[95% CI] = -0.35[-0.46, -0.25]). The effect estimates for transport and leisure PA with distress were larger for women. For household domain, a U-shaped curve with an elongated tail was seen. Median PA was associated with lower distress compared with lower quantities (B[95% CI] = -0.12[-0.22, -0.03]); however, this association was not evident with increasing household PA. There were no clear associations between occupational PA and distress. Higher television viewing was associated with higher distress (B[95% CI] = 0.16[0.02, 0.30]).

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing PA and reducing television viewing may contribute to reduced psychological distress, particularly in women. Future interventions should incorporate leisure and transport PA and decrease television viewing to assess the impact on mental health.

Intake of polyphenols from cereal foods and colorectal cancer risk in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Cereal-derived polyphenols have demonstrated protective mechanisms in colorectal cancer (CRC) models; however, confirmation in human studies is lacking. Therefore, this study examined the association between cereal polyphenol intakes and CRC risk in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS), a prospective cohort study in Melbourne, Australia that recruited participants between 1990 and 1994 to investigate diet-disease relationships.

METHODS

Using food frequency questionnaire diet data matched to polyphenol data, dietary intakes of alkylresorcinols, phenolic acids, lignans, and total polyphenols from cereals were estimated. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals for CRC risk were estimated for quintiles of intake with the lowest quintile as the comparison category, using multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models with age as the time axis adjusted for sex, socio-economic status, alcohol consumption, fibre intake, country of birth, total energy intake, physical activity and smoking status.

RESULTS

From 35,245 eligible adults, mean (SD) age 54.7 (8.6) years, mostly female (61%) and Australian-born (69%), there were 1394 incident cases of CRC (946 colon cancers and 448 rectal cancers). Results for total cereal polyphenol intake showed reduced HRs in Q2 (HR: 0.80; 95% CI, 0.68-0.95) and Q4 (HR: 0.75; 95% CI, 0.62-0.90), and similar for phenolic acids. Alkylresorcinol intake showed reduced HR in Q3 (HR: 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67-0.95) and Q4 (HR: 0.79; 95% CI, 0.66-0.95).

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the present study showed little evidence of association between intakes of cereal polyphenols and CRC risk. Future investigations may be useful to understand associations between cereal-derived polyphenols and additional cancers in different populations.

Methylation scores for smoking, alcohol consumption and body mass index and risk of seven types of cancer

Methylation marks of exposure to health risk factors may be useful markers of cancer risk as they might better capture current and past exposures than questionnaires, and reflect different individual responses to exposure. We used data from seven case-control studies nested within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study of blood DNA methylation and risk of colorectal, gastric, kidney, lung, prostate and urothelial cancer, and B-cell lymphoma (N cases = 3123). Methylation scores (MS) for smoking, body mass index (BMI), and alcohol consumption were calculated based on published data as weighted averages of methylation values. Rate ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals for association with cancer risk were estimated using conditional logistic regression and expressed per SD increase of the MS, with and without adjustment for health-related confounders. The contribution of MS to discriminate cases from controls was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC). After confounder adjustment, we observed: large associations (RR = 1.5-1.7) with lung cancer risk for smoking MS; moderate associations (RR = 1.2-1.3) with urothelial cancer risk for smoking MS and with mature B-cell neoplasm risk for BMI and alcohol MS; moderate to small associations (RR = 1.1-1.2) for BMI and alcohol MS with several cancer types and cancer overall. Generally small AUC increases were observed after inclusion of several MS in the same model (colorectal, gastric, kidney, urothelial cancers: +3%; lung cancer: +7%; B-cell neoplasms: +8%). Methylation scores for smoking, BMI and alcohol consumption show independent associations with cancer risk, and may provide some improvements in risk prediction.

Heritable methylation marks associated with prostate cancer risk

DNA methylation marks that are inherited from parents to offspring are known to play a role in cancer risk and could explain part of the familial risk for cancer. We therefore conducted a genome-wide search for heritable methylation marks associated with prostate cancer risk. Peripheral blood DNA methylation was measured for 133 of the 469 members of 25 multiple-case prostate cancer families, using the EPIC array. We used these families to systematically search the genome for methylation marks with Mendelian patterns of inheritance, then we tested the 1,000 most heritable marks for association with prostate cancer risk. After correcting for multiple testing, 41 heritable methylation marks were associated with prostate cancer risk. Separate analyses, based on 869 incident cases and 869 controls from a prospective cohort study, showed that 9 of these marks near the metastable epiallele VTRNA2-1 were also nominally associated with aggressive prostate cancer risk in the population.

High cereal fibre but not total fibre is associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes: Evidence from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study

AIM

To assess the associations of total dietary fibre and fibre from different food sources (ie, cereal, fruit and vegetables) with the risk of diabetes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study enrolled 41 513 participants aged 40 to 69 years from 1990 to 1994. The first and second follow-ups were conducted in 1994 to 1998 and 2003 to 2007, respectively. Self-reported diabetes incidence was recorded at both follow-ups. We analysed data from 39 185 participants, with a mean follow-up of 13.8 years. The relationships between dietary fibre intake (total, fruit, vegetable and cereal fibre) and the incidence of diabetes were assessed using modified Poisson regression, adjusted for dietary, lifestyle, obesity, socioeconomic and other possible confounders. Fibre intake was categorized into quintiles.

RESULTS

At total of 1989 incident cases were identified over both follow-up surveys. Total fibre intake was not associated with diabetes risk. Higher intake of cereal fibre (P for trend = 0.003), but not fruit (P for trend = 0.3) and vegetable fibre (P for trend = 0.5), was protective against diabetes. For cereal fibre, quintile 5 versus quintile 1 showed a 25% reduction in diabetes risk (incidence risk ratio [IRR] 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.63-0.88). For fruit fibre, only quintile 2 versus quintile 1 showed a 16% risk reduction (IRR 0.84, 95% CI 0.73-0.96). Adjustment for body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio eliminated the association and mediation analysis showed that BMI mediated 36% of the relationship between fibre and diabetes.

CONCLUSION

Intake of cereal fibre and, to a lesser extent, fruit fibre, may reduce the risk of diabetes, while total fibre showed no association. Our data suggest that specific recommendations regarding dietary fibre intake may be needed to prevent diabetes.

The blood proteome of imminent lung cancer diagnosis

Identification of risk biomarkers may enhance early detection of smoking-related lung cancer. We measured between 392 and 1,162 proteins in blood samples drawn at most three years before diagnosis in 731 smoking-matched case-control sets nested within six prospective cohorts from the US, Europe, Singapore, and Australia. We identify 36 proteins with independently reproducible associations with risk of imminent lung cancer diagnosis (all p < 4 × 10-5). These include a few markers (e.g. CA-125/MUC-16 and CEACAM5/CEA) that have previously been reported in studies using pre-diagnostic blood samples for lung cancer. The 36 proteins include several growth factors (e.g. HGF, IGFBP-1, IGFP-2), tumor necrosis factor-receptors (e.g. TNFRSF6B, TNFRSF13B), and chemokines and cytokines (e.g. CXL17, GDF-15, SCF). The odds ratio per standard deviation range from 1.31 for IGFBP-1 (95% CI: 1.17-1.47) to 2.43 for CEACAM5 (95% CI: 2.04-2.89). We map the 36 proteins to the hallmarks of cancer and find that activation of invasion and metastasis, proliferative signaling, tumor-promoting inflammation, and angiogenesis are most frequently implicated.

Hypertensive conditions of pregnancy, preterm birth, and premenopausal breast cancer risk: a premenopausal breast cancer collaborative group analysis

PURPOSE

Women with preeclampsia are more likely to deliver preterm. Reports of inverse associations between preeclampsia and breast cancer risk, and positive associations between preterm birth and breast cancer risk are difficult to reconcile. We investigated the co-occurrence of preeclampsia/gestational hypertension with preterm birth and breast cancer risk using data from the Premenopausal Breast Cancer Collaborative Group.

METHODS

Across 6 cohorts, 3096 premenopausal breast cancers were diagnosed among 184,866 parous women. We estimated multivariable hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for premenopausal breast cancer risk using Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Overall, preterm birth was not associated (HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.92, 1.14), and preeclampsia was inversely associated (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.76, 0.99), with premenopausal breast cancer risk. In stratified analyses using data from 3 cohorts, preterm birth associations with breast cancer risk were modified by hypertensive conditions in first pregnancies (P-interaction = 0.09). Preterm birth was positively associated with premenopausal breast cancer in strata of women with preeclampsia or gestational hypertension (HR 1.52, 95% CI: 1.06, 2.18), but not among women with normotensive pregnancy (HR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.93, 1.28). When stratified by preterm birth, the inverse association with preeclampsia was more apparent, but not statistically different (P-interaction = 0.2), among women who did not deliver preterm (HR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.68, 1.00) than those who did (HR = 1.07, 95% CI 0.73, 1.56).

CONCLUSION

Findings support an overall inverse association of preeclampsia history with premenopausal breast cancer risk. Estimates for preterm birth and breast cancer may vary according to other conditions of pregnancy.

Estimated dietary intake of polyphenols from cereal foods and associated lifestyle and demographic factors in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study

Cereal foods are consumed globally and are important sources of polyphenols with potential health benefits, yet dietary intakes are unclear. We aimed to calculate the dietary intakes of polyphenols from cereal foods in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS), and describe intakes by demographic and lifestyle factors. We estimated intakes of alkylresorcinols, lignans and phenolic acids in n = 39,892 eligible MCCS participants, using baseline dietary data (1990-1994) from a 121-item FFQ containing 17 cereal foods, matched to a polyphenol database developed from published literature and Phenol-Explorer Database. Intakes were estimated within groups according to lifestyle and demographic factors. The median (25th-75th percentile) intake of total polyphenols from cereal foods was 86.9 mg/day (51.4-155.8). The most consumed compounds were phenolic acids, with a median intake of 67.1 mg (39.5-118.8), followed by alkylresorcinols of 19.7 mg (10.8-34.6). Lignans made the smallest contribution of 0.50 mg (0.13-0.87). Higher polyphenol intakes were associated with higher relative socio-economic advantage and prudent lifestyles, including lower body mass index (BMI), non-smoking and higher physical activity scores. The findings based on polyphenol data specifically matched to the FFQ provide new information on intakes of cereal polyphenols, and how they might vary according to lifestyle and demographic factors.

High ultra-processed food consumption is associated with elevated psychological distress as an indicator of depression in adults from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Few studies have tested longitudinal associations between ultra-processed food consumption and depressive outcomes. As such, further investigation and replication are necessary. The aim of this study is to examine associations of ultra-processed food intake with elevated psychological distress as a marker for depression after 15 years.

METHOD

Data from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS) were analysed (n = 23,299). We applied the NOVA food classification system to a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) to determine ultra-processed food intake at baseline. We categorised energy-adjusted ultra-processed food consumption into quartiles by using the distribution of the dataset. Psychological distress was measured by the ten-item Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10). We fitted unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression models to assess the association of ultra-processed food consumption (exposure) with significant psychological distress (outcome and defined as K10 ≥ 20). We fitted additional logistic regression models to determine whether these associations were modified by sex, age and body mass index.

RESULTS

After adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and lifestyle and health-related behaviours, participants with the highest relative intake of ultra-processed food were at increased odds of significant psychological distress compared to participants with the lowest intake (aOR: 1.23; 95%CI: 1.10, 1.38, p for trend = 0.001). We found no evidence for an interaction of sex, age and body mass index with ultra-processed food intake.

CONCLUSION

Higher ultra-processed food intake at baseline was associated with subsequent elevated psychological distress as an indicator of depression at follow-up. Further prospective and intervention studies are necessary to identify possible underlying pathways, specify the precise attributes of ultra-processed food that confer harm, and optimise nutrition-related and public health strategies for common mental disorders.

Adiposity and plasma concentrations of kynurenine pathway metabolites and traditional markers of inflammation

AIM

The kynurenine pathway is increasingly recognised to play a role in inflammation and disease. We assessed the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of adiposity measures (body mass index, waist-hip ratio, waist circumference and fat mass ratio) with plasma concentrations of kynurenine pathway metabolites and traditional markers of inflammation.

METHODS

We used data from 970 Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study participants who had plasma markers measured at baseline (median age 59 years) and follow-up (median age 70 years). Linear regression was used to assess cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between four adiposity measures and concentrations of i) nine kynurenine pathway metabolites; ii) two derived markers; iii) eight traditional inflammatory markers.

RESULTS

Cross-sectionally, most kynurenine metabolites were strongly associated with adiposity measures at both time points; associations were generally stronger than for most inflammation markers except CRP (e.g. body mass index at baseline, quinolinic acid (per S.D. β = 0.30, 95%CI: 0.24-0.36, P = 10^-21), kynurenine (β = 0.25, 95%CI: 0.19-0.31, P = 10^-16) and CRP (β = 0.31, 95%CI: 0.25-0.37, P = 10^-24), and remained largely unchanged after adjustment for confounders. Longitudinally, changes in adiposity measures over approximately a decade were positively associated with changes in kynurenine metabolite concentrations (in particular for 3-hydroxyanthranilic acid, kynurenine and quinolinic acid), and more strongly so than for other markers of inflammation, including CRP.

CONCLUSIONS

In middle-aged and older adults, plasma concentrations of kynurenine metabolites are strongly associated with adiposity, both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Our study demonstrates that kynurenine metabolites may be valuable markers to monitor the adverse consequences of obesity.

Diet and risk of Barrett's oesophagus: Melbourne collaborative cohort study

Barrett's oesophagus (BE) is the precursor of oesophageal adenocarcinoma, which has become the most common type of oesophageal cancer in many Western populations. Existing evidence on diet and risk of BE predominantly comes from case-control studies, which are subject to recall bias in measurement of diet. We aimed to investigate the potential effect of diet, including macronutrients, carotenoids, food groups, specific food items, beverages and dietary scores, on risk of BE in over 20 000 participants of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Diet at baseline (1990-1994) was measured using a food frequency questionnaire. The outcome was BE diagnosed between baseline and follow-up (2007-2010). Logistic regression models were used to estimate OR and 95 % CI for diet in relation to risk of BE. Intakes of leafy vegetables and fruit were inversely associated with risk of BE (highest v. lowest quartile: OR = 0·59; CI: 0·38, 0·94; P-trend = 0·02 and OR = 0·58; CI: 0·37, 0·93; P-trend = 0·02 respectively), as were dietary fibre and carotenoids. Stronger associations were observed for food than the nutrients found in them. Positive associations were observed for discretionary food (OR = 1·54; CI: 0·97, 2·44; P-trend = 0·04) and total fat intake (OR per 10 g/d = 1·11; CI: 1·00, 1·23), the association for fat was less robust in sensitivity analyses. No association was observed for meat, protein, dairy products or diet scores. Diet is a potential modifiable risk factor for BE. Public health and clinical guidelines that incorporate dietary recommendations could contribute to reduction in risk of BE and, thereby, oesophageal adenocarcinoma.

Trajectories of body mass index from early adulthood to late midlife and incidence of total knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis: findings from a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between body mass index (BMI) trajectories from early adulthood to late midlife and risk of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) for osteoarthritis.

METHODS

24,368 participants from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study with weight collected during 1990-1994, 1995-1998, and 2003-2007, recalled weight at age 18-21 years, and height measured during 1990-1994 were included. Incident TKA from 2003 to 2007 to December 2018 was determined by linking cohort records to the National Joint Replacement Registry.

RESULTS

Using group-based trajectory modelling, six distinct trajectories (TR) of BMI from early adulthood (age 18-21 years) to late midlife (approximately 62 years) were identified: lower normal to normal BMI (TR1; 19.7% population), normal BMI to borderline overweight (TR2; 36.7%), normal BMI to overweight (TR3; 26.8%), overweight to borderline obese (TR4; 3.5%), normal BMI to class 1 obesity (TR5; 10.1%), overweight to class 2 obesity (TR6; 3.2%). Over 12.4 years, 1,328 (5.4%) had TKA. The hazard ratios for TKA increased in all TR compared to TR1 [from TR2: 2.03 (95% CI 1.64-2.52) to TR6: 8.59 (6.44-11.46)]. 28.4% of TKA could be prevented if individuals followed the trajectory one lower, an average weight reduction of 8-12 kg from early adulthood to late midlife, saving $AUS 373 million/year. Most reduction would occur in TR2 (population attributable fraction 37.9%, 95% CI 26.7-47.3%) and TR3 (26.8%, 20.0-31.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

Prevention of weight gain from young adulthood to late midlife in order to reduce overweight/obesity has the potential to significantly reduce the cost and burden of TKA.

Epigenome-wide meta-analysis of BMI in nine cohorts: Examining the utility of epigenetically predicted BMI

This study sought to examine the association between DNA methylation and body mass index (BMI) and the potential of BMI-associated cytosine-phosphate-guanine (CpG) sites to provide information about metabolic health. We pooled summary statistics from six trans-ethnic epigenome-wide association studies (EWASs) of BMI representing nine cohorts (n = 17,034), replicated these findings in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI, n = 4,822), and developed an epigenetic prediction score of BMI. In the pooled EWASs, 1,265 CpG sites were associated with BMI (p < 1E-7) and 1,238 replicated in the WHI (FDR < 0.05). We performed several stratified analyses to examine whether these associations differed between individuals of European and African descent, as defined by self-reported race/ethnicity. We found that five CpG sites had a significant interaction with BMI by race/ethnicity. To examine the utility of the significant CpG sites in predicting BMI, we used elastic net regression to predict log-normalized BMI in the WHI (80% training/20% testing). This model found that 397 sites could explain 32% of the variance in BMI in the WHI test set. Individuals whose methylome-predicted BMI overestimated their BMI (high epigenetic BMI) had significantly higher glucose and triglycerides and lower HDL cholesterol and LDL cholesterol compared to accurately predicted BMI. Individuals whose methylome-predicted BMI underestimated their BMI (low epigenetic BMI) had significantly higher HDL cholesterol and lower glucose and triglycerides. This study confirmed 553 and identified 685 CpG sites associated with BMI. Participants with high epigenetic BMI had poorer metabolic health, suggesting that the overestimation may be driven in part by cardiometabolic derangements characteristic of metabolic syndrome.

Dietary Inflammatory Index, Alternative Healthy Eating Index-2010, Mediterranean Diet Score and the risk of pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

Previous studies of dietary patterns and pancreatic cancer risk have been inconclusive; we aimed to investigate the association of Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS), Alternative Healthy Eating Index-2010 (AHEI-2010), and Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII®) with risk of pancreatic cancer.

METHODS

We used data from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study including 33,690 men and women aged 40-69 years at recruitment in 1990-1994. A total of 258 incident cases of pancreatic cancer was identified over an average of 23.7 years of follow-up. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using Cox regression, with age as the underlying time metric, adjusting for potential confounders including sex, height, country of birth, education, socio-economic position, physical activity, energy intake, smoking status, pack-years smoking, years since quitting smoking, and alcohol intake.

RESULTS

A healthier diet as assessed by the AHEI-2010 was associated with a lower risk of pancreatic cancer [HR_{Quartile4 vs Quartile1} = 0.58; 95%CI 0.40 - 0.85; p for trend 0.003]. Weaker but consistent evidence was observed for the other indexes [DII® HR_{Quartile4 vs Quartile1} = 1.30; 95%CI 0.82 - 2.06; p for trend 0.1], [MDS HR_{Category3 vs Category1} = 0.79; 95%CI 0.49 - 1.26; p for trend 0.06].

CONCLUSION

Adherence to a healthier diet, as assessed by the AHEI-2010, may reduce the risk of pancreatic cancer.

Inflammation and Epigenetic Aging Are Largely Independent Markers of Biological Aging and Mortality

Limited evidence exists on the link between inflammation and epigenetic aging. We aimed to (a) assess the cross-sectional and prospective associations of 22 inflammation-related plasma markers and a signature of inflammaging with epigenetic aging and (b) determine whether epigenetic aging and inflammaging are independently associated with mortality. Blood samples from 940 participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study collected at baseline (1990-1994) and follow-up (2003-2007) were assayed for DNA methylation and 22 inflammation-related markers, including well-established markers (eg, interleukins and C-reactive protein) and metabolites of the tryptophan-kynurenine pathway. Four measures of epigenetic aging (PhenoAge, GrimAge, DunedinPoAm, and Zhang) and a signature of inflammaging were considered, adjusted for age, and transformed to Z scores. Associations were assessed using linear regression, and mortality hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated using Cox regression. Cross-sectionally, most inflammation-related markers were associated with epigenetic aging measures, although with generally modest effect sizes (regression coefficients per SD ≤ 0.26) and explaining altogether between 1% and 11% of their variation. Prospectively, baseline inflammation-related markers were not, or only weakly, associated with epigenetic aging after 11 years of follow-up. Epigenetic aging and inflammaging were strongly and independently associated with mortality, for example, inflammaging: HR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.27-1.56, p = 2 × 10-10, which was only slightly attenuated after adjustment for 4 epigenetic aging measures: HR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.22-1.51, p = 7 × 10-9). Although cross-sectionally associated with epigenetic aging, inflammation-related markers accounted for a modest proportion of its variation. Inflammaging and epigenetic aging are essentially nonoverlapping markers of biological aging and may be used jointly to predict mortality.

Distinct Reproductive Risk Profiles for Intrinsic-Like Breast Cancer Subtypes: Pooled Analysis of Population-Based Studies

BACKGROUND

Reproductive factors have been shown to be differentially associated with risk of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive and ER-negative breast cancer. However, their associations with intrinsic-like subtypes are less clear.

METHODS

Analyses included up to 23 353 cases and 71 072 controls pooled from 31 population-based case-control or cohort studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium across 16 countries on 4 continents. Polytomous logistic regression was used to estimate the association between reproductive factors and risk of breast cancer by intrinsic-like subtypes (luminal A-like, luminal B-like, luminal B-HER2-like, HER2-enriched-like, and triple-negative breast cancer) and by invasiveness. All statistical tests were 2-sided.

RESULTS

Compared with nulliparous women, parous women had a lower risk of luminal A-like, luminal B-like, luminal B-HER2-like, and HER2-enriched-like disease. This association was apparent only after approximately 10 years since last birth and became stronger with increasing time (odds ratio [OR] = 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.49 to 0.71; and OR = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.28 to 0.46 for multiparous women with luminal A-like tumors 20 to less than 25 years after last birth and 45 to less than 50 years after last birth, respectively). In contrast, parous women had a higher risk of triple-negative breast cancer right after their last birth (for multiparous women: OR = 3.12, 95% CI = 2.02 to 4.83) that was attenuated with time but persisted for decades (OR = 1.03, 95% CI = 0.79 to 1.34, for multiparous women 25 to less than 30 years after last birth). Older age at first birth (Pheterogeneity < .001 for triple-negative compared with luminal A-like breast cancer) and breastfeeding (Pheterogeneity < .001 for triple-negative compared with luminal A-like breast cancer) were associated with lower risk of triple-negative breast cancer but not with other disease subtypes. Younger age at menarche was associated with higher risk of all subtypes; older age at menopause was associated with higher risk of luminal A-like but not triple-negative breast cancer. Associations for in situ tumors were similar to luminal A-like.

CONCLUSIONS

This large and comprehensive study demonstrates a distinct reproductive risk factor profile for triple-negative breast cancer compared with other subtypes, with implications for the understanding of disease etiology and risk prediction.

Gut microbiome composition is similar between pregnant women with excess body fat with healthy and less healthy dietary intake patterns

BACKGROUND

Dietary composition influences the composition of the gut microbiota in healthy adults. Little is known about the effect of dietary patterns on gut microbiota composition in pregnancy. This cross-sectional study aimed to investigate the associations between two diet quality scores adapted from the Australian Recommended Food Score (ARFS) and the Mediterranean Dietary Score (MDS) with the composition of the gut microbiota in pregnant women with excess body fat at 28 weeks' gestation.

METHODS

Women from the Study of Probiotics IN Gestational diabetes (SPRING) who had completed a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ; n = 395) were classified according to tertiles of ARFS and the MDS. Higher dietary pattern scores in both the ARFS and the MDS represent better diet quality. Gut microbiota composition was assessed using 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing and analysed using MicrobiomeAnalyst in a subset of 196 women with faecal samples.

RESULTS

No significant difference was found in alpha or beta diversity. A higher ARFS was associated with a higher abundance of Ruminococcus and lower abundance of Akkermansia, whereas a higher MDS was associated with a higher abundance of Ruminococcus and Butyricicoccus, though these changes disappeared after correction for multiple testing.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest that dietary patterns defined by the ARFS and MDS were not associated with gut microbiota composition in pregnant women classified as overweight and obese at 28 weeks' gestation within this study.

Does genetic predisposition modify the effect of lifestyle-related factors on DNA methylation?

Lifestyle-related phenotypes have been shown to be heritable and associated with DNA methylation. We aimed to investigate whether genetic predisposition to tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, and higher body mass index (BMI) moderates the effect of these phenotypes on blood DNA methylation. We calculated polygenic scores (PGS) to quantify genetic predisposition to these phenotypes using training (N = 7,431) and validation (N = 4,307) samples. Using paired genetic-methylation data (N = 4,307), gene-environment interactions (i.e., PGS × lifestyle) were assessed using linear mixed-effects models with outcomes: 1) methylation at sites found to be strongly associated with smoking (1,061 CpGs), alcohol consumption (459 CpGs), and BMI (85 CpGs) and 2) two epigenetic ageing measures, PhenoAge and GrimAge. In the validation sample, PGS explained ~1.4% (P = 1 × 10-14), ~0.6% (P = 2 × 10-7), and ~8.7% (P = 7 × 10-87) of variance in smoking initiation, alcohol consumption, and BMI, respectively. Nominally significant interaction effects (P < 0.05) were found at 61, 14, and 7 CpGs for smoking, alcohol consumption, and BMI, respectively. There was strong evidence that all lifestyle-related phenotypes were positively associated with PhenoAge and GrimAge, except for alcohol consumption with PhenoAge. There was weak evidence that the association of smoking with GrimAge was attenuated in participants genetically predisposed to smoking (interaction term: -0.022, standard error [SE] = 0.012, P = 0.058) and that the association of alcohol consumption with PhenoAge was attenuated in those genetically predisposed to drink alcohol (interaction term: -0.030, SE = 0.015, P = 0.041). In conclusion, genetic susceptibility to unhealthy lifestyles did not strongly modify the association between observed lifestyle behaviour and blood DNA methylation. Potential associations were observed for epigenetic ageing measures, which should be replicated in additional studies.

Kynurenine Pathway Metabolites in the Blood and Cerebrospinal Fluid Are Associated with Human Aging

The kynurenine pathway is implicated in aging, longevity, and immune regulation, but longitudinal studies and assessment of the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) are lacking. We investigated tryptophan (Trp) and downstream kynurenine metabolites and their associations with age and change over time in four cohorts using comprehensive, targeted metabolomics. The study included 1574 participants in two cohorts with repeated metabolite measurements (mean age at baseline 58 years ± 8 SD and 62 ± 10 SD), 3161 community-dwelling older adults (age range 71-74 years), and 109 CSF donors (mean age 73 years ± 7 SD). In the first two cohorts, age was associated with kynurenine (Kyn), quinolinic acid (QA), and the kynurenine to tryptophan ratio (KTR), and inversely with Trp. Consistent with these findings, Kyn, QA, and KTR increased over time, whereas Trp decreased. Similarly, QA and KTR were higher in community-dwelling older adults of age 74 compared to 71, whereas Trp was lower. Kyn and QA were more strongly correlated with age in the CSF compared to serum and increased in a subset of participants with repeated CSF sampling (n = 33) over four years. We assessed associations with frailty and mortality in two cohorts. QA and KTR were most strongly associated with mortality and frailty. Our study provides robust evidence of changes in tryptophan and kynurenine metabolism with human aging and supports links with adverse health outcomes. Our results suggest that aging activates the inflammation and stress-driven kynurenine pathway systemically and in the brain, but we cannot determine whether this activation is harmful or adaptive. We identified a relatively stronger age-related increase of the potentially neurotoxic end-product QA in brain.

Methylation-based markers of aging and lifestyle-related factors and risk of breast cancer: a pooled analysis of four prospective studies

BACKGROUND

DNA methylation in blood may reflect adverse exposures accumulated over the lifetime and could therefore provide potential improvements in the prediction of cancer risk. A substantial body of research has shown associations between epigenetic aging and risk of disease, including cancer. Here we aimed to study epigenetic measures of aging and lifestyle-related factors in association with risk of breast cancer.

METHODS

Using data from four prospective case-control studies nested in three cohorts of European ancestry participants, including a total of 1,655 breast cancer cases, we calculated three methylation-based measures of lifestyle factors (body mass index [BMI], tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption) and seven measures of epigenetic aging (Horvath-based, Hannum-based, PhenoAge and GrimAge). All measures were regression-adjusted for their respective risk factors and expressed per standard deviation (SD). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using conditional or unconditional logistic regression and pooled using fixed-effects meta-analysis. Subgroup analyses were conducted by age at blood draw, time from blood sample to diagnosis, oestrogen receptor-positivity status and tumour stage.

RESULTS

None of the measures of epigenetic aging were associated with risk of breast cancer in the pooled analysis: Horvath 'age acceleration' (AA): OR per SD = 1.02, 95%CI: 0.95-1.10; AA-Hannum: OR = 1.03, 95%CI:0.95-1.12; PhenoAge: OR = 1.01, 95%CI: 0.94-1.09 and GrimAge: OR = 1.03, 95%CI: 0.94-1.12, in models adjusting for white blood cell proportions, body mass index, smoking and alcohol consumption. The BMI-adjusted predictor of BMI was associated with breast cancer risk, OR per SD = 1.09, 95%CI: 1.01-1.17. The results for the alcohol and smoking methylation-based predictors were consistent with a null association. Risk did not appear to substantially vary by age at blood draw, time to diagnosis or tumour characteristics.

CONCLUSION

We found no evidence that methylation-based measures of aging, smoking or alcohol consumption were associated with risk of breast cancer. A methylation-based marker of BMI was associated with risk and may provide insights into the underlying associations between BMI and breast cancer.

Higher Ultra-Processed Food Consumption Is Associated with Greater High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein Concentration in Adults: Cross-Sectional Results from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study

Background: Few studies have examined associations between ultra-processed food intake and biomarkers of inflammation, and inconsistent results have been reported in the small number of studies that do exist. As such, further investigation is required. Methods: Cross-sectional baseline data from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS) were analysed (n = 2018). We applied the NOVA food classification system to data from a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) to determine ultra-processed food intake (g/day). The outcome was high-sensitivity C-reactive protein concentration (hsCRP; mg/L). We fitted unadjusted and adjusted linear regression analyses, with sociodemographic characteristics and lifestyle- and health-related behaviours as covariates. Supplementary analyses further adjusted for body mass index (kg/m2). Sex was assessed as a possible effect modifier. Ultra-processed food intake was modelled as 100 g increments and the magnitude of associations expressed as estimated relative change in hsCRP concentration with accompanying 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs). Results: After adjustment, every 100 g increase in ultra-processed food intake was associated with a 4.0% increase in hsCRP concentration (95%CIs: 2.1−5.9%, p < 0.001). Supplementary analyses showed that part of this association was independent of body mass index (estimated relative change in hsCRP: 2.5%; 95%CIs: 0.8−4.3%, p = 0.004). No interaction was observed between sex and ultra-processed food intake. Conclusion: Higher ultra-processed food intake was cross-sectionally associated with elevated hsCRP, which appeared to occur independent of body mass index. Future prospective and intervention studies are necessary to confirm directionality and whether the observed association is causal.

Alcohol intake trajectories during the life course and risk of alcohol-related cancer: A prospective cohort study

We examined associations between sex-specific alcohol intake trajectories and alcohol-related cancer risk using data from 22 756 women and 15 701 men aged 40 to 69 years at baseline in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Alcohol intake for 10-year periods from age 20 until the decade encompassing recruitment, calculated using recalled beverage-specific frequency and quantity, was used to estimate group-based sex-specific intake trajectories. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for primary invasive alcohol-related cancer (upper aerodigestive tract, breast, liver and colorectum). Three distinct alcohol intake trajectories for women (lifetime abstention, stable light, increasing moderate) and six for men (lifetime abstention, stable light, stable moderate, increasing heavy, early decreasing heavy, late decreasing heavy) were identified. 2303 incident alcohol-related cancers were diagnosed during 485 525 person-years in women and 789 during 303 218 person-years in men. For men, compared with lifetime abstention, heavy intake (mean ≥ 60 g/day) at age 20 to 39 followed by either an early (from age 40 to 49) (early decreasing heavy; HR = 1.75, 95% CI: 1.25-2.44) or late decrease (from age 60 to 69) (late decreasing heavy; HR = 1.94, 95% CI: 1.28-2.93), and moderate intake (mean <60 g/day) at age 20 to 39 increasing to heavy intake in middle-age (increasing heavy; HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.06-1.97) were associated with increased risk of alcohol-related cancer. For women, compared with lifetime abstention, increasing intake from age 20 (increasing moderate) was associated with increased alcohol-related cancer risk (HR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.06-1.48). Similar associations were observed for colorectal (men) and breast cancer. Heavy drinking during early adulthood might increase cancer risk later in life.

Mechanisms for the sex-specific effect of H. pylori on risk of gastroesophageal reflux disease and Barrett's oesophagus

BACKGROUND

Mechanisms for how Helicobacter pylori infection affects risk of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and Barrett's oesophagus (BE) are incompletely understood and might differ by sex.

METHODS

In a case-control study nested in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study with 425 GERD cases and 169 BE cases (identified at 2007-10 follow-up), we estimated sex-specific odds ratios for participants who were H. pylori seronegative versus seropositive at baseline (1990-94). To explore possible mechanisms, we 1) compared patterns of H. pylori-induced gastritis by sex using serum pepsinogen-I and gastrin-17 data and 2) quantified the effect of H. pylori seronegativity on BE mediated by GERD using causal mediation analysis.

RESULTS

For men, H. pylori seronegativity was associated with 1.69-fold (CI:1.03-2.75) and 2.28-fold (CI:1.27-4.12) higher odds of GERD and BE, respectively. No association was observed for women. H. pylori-induced atrophic antral gastritis was more common in men (68%) than in women (56%; p=0.015). For men, 5 of the 15 per 1,000 excess BE risk from being seronegative was mediated by GERD.

CONCLUSIONS

Men, but not women, who were H. pylori seronegative had increased risks of GERD and BE. A possible explanation might be sex-differences in patterns of H. pylori-induced atrophic antral gastritis, which could lead to less erosive reflux for men. Evidence of GERD mediating the effect of H. pylori on BE risk among men supports this proposed mechanism.

IMPACT

The findings highlight the importance of investigating sex differences in the effect of H. pylori on risk of GERD and BE in future studies.

Independent evaluation of melanoma polygenic risk scores in UK and Australian prospective cohorts

BACKGROUND

Previous studies suggest that polygenic risk scores (PRSs) may improve melanoma risk stratification. However, there has been limited independent validation of PRS-based risk prediction, particularly assessment of calibration (comparing predicted to observed risks).

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate PRS-based melanoma risk prediction in prospective UK and Australian cohorts with European ancestry.

METHODS

We analysed invasive melanoma incidence in the UK Biobank (UKB; n = 395 647, 1651 cases) and a case-cohort nested within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS, Australia; n = 4765, 303 cases). Three PRSs were evaluated: 68 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at 54 loci from a 2020 meta-analysis (PRS68), 50 SNPs significant in the 2020 meta-analysis excluding UKB (PRS50) and 45 SNPs at 21 loci known in 2018 (PRS45). Ten-year melanoma risks were calculated from population-level cancer registry data by age group and sex, with and without PRS adjustment.

RESULTS

Predicted absolute melanoma risks based on age and sex alone underestimated melanoma incidence in the UKB [ratio of expected/observed cases: E/O = 0·65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·62-0·68] and MCCS (E/O = 0·63, 95% CI 0·56-0·72). For UKB, calibration was improved by PRS adjustment, with PRS50-adjusted risks E/O = 0·91, 95% CI 0·87-0·95. The discriminative ability for PRS68- and PRS50-adjusted absolute risks was higher than for risks based on age and sex alone (Δ area under the curve 0·07-0·10, P < 0·0001), and higher than for PRS45-adjusted risks (Δ area under the curve 0·02-0·04, P < 0·001).

CONCLUSIONS

A PRS derived from a larger, more diverse meta-analysis improves risk prediction compared with an earlier PRS, and might help tailor melanoma prevention and early detection strategies to different risk levels. Recalibration of absolute risks may be necessary for application to specific populations.

Association of neighbourhood disadvantage and individual socioeconomic position with all-cause mortality: a longitudinal multicohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Few studies have examined the interactions between individual socioeconomic position and neighbourhood deprivation and the findings so far are heterogeneous. Using a large sample of diverse cohorts, we investigated the interaction effect of neighbourhood socioeconomic deprivation and individual socioeconomic position, assessed using education, on mortality.

METHODS

We did a longitudinal multicohort analysis that included six cohort studies participating in the European LIFEPATH consortium: the CoLaus (Lausanne, Switzerland), E3N (France), EPIC-Turin (Turin, Italy), EPIPorto (Porto, Portugal), Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (Melbourne, VIC, Australia), and Whitehall II (London, UK) cohorts. All participants with data on mortality, educational attainment, and neighbourhood deprivation were included in the present study. The data sources were the databases of each cohort study. Poisson regression was used to estimate the mortality rates and associations (relative risk, 95% CIs) with neighbourhood deprivation (Q1 being least deprived to Q5 being the most deprived). Baseline educational attainment was used as an indicator of individual socioeconomic position. Estimates were combined using pooled analysis and the relative excess risk due to the interaction was computed to identify additive interactions.

FINDINGS

The cohorts comprised a total population of 168 801 individuals. The recruitment dates were 2003-06 for CoLaus, 1989-91 for E3N, 1992-98 for EPIC-Turin, 1999-2003 for EPIPorto, 1990-94 for MCCS, and 1991-94 for Whitehall II. We use baseline data only and mortality data obtained using record linkage. Age-adjusted mortality rates were higher among participants residing in more deprived neighbourhoods than those in the least deprived neighbourhoods (Q1 least deprived neighbourhoods, 369·7 per 100 000 person-years [95% CI 356·4-383·2] vs Q5-most deprived neighbourhoods 445·7 per 100 000 person-years [430·2-461·7]), but the magnitude of the association varied according to educational attainment (relative excess risk due to interaction=0·18, 95% CI 0·08-0·28). The relative risk for Q5 versus Q1 was 1·31 (1·23-1·40) among individuals with primary education or less, but less pronounced among those with secondary education (1·12; 1·04-1·21) and tertiary education (1·16; 1·07-1·27). Associations remained after adjustment for individual-level factors, such as smoking, physical activity, and alcohol intake, among others.

INTERPRETATION

Our study suggests that the detrimental health effect of living in disadvantaged neighbourhoods is more pronounced among individuals with low education attainment, amplifying social inequalities in health. This finding is relevant to policies aimed at reducing health inequalities, suggesting that these issues should be addressed at both the individual level and the community level.

FUNDING

The European Commission, European Regional Development Fund, the Portugese Foundation for Science and Technology.

Association of Markers of Inflammation, the Kynurenine Pathway and B Vitamins with Age and Mortality, and a Signature of Inflammaging

BACKGROUND

Inflammation is a key feature of aging. We aimed to (i) investigate the association of 34 blood markers potentially involved in inflammatory processes with age and mortality and (ii) develop a signature of "inflammaging."

METHODS

Thirty-four blood markers relating to inflammation, B vitamin status, and the kynurenine pathway were measured in 976 participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study at baseline (median age = 59 years) and follow-up (median age = 70 years). Associations with age and mortality were assessed using linear and Cox regression, respectively. A parsimonious signature of inflammaging was developed and its association with mortality was compared with 2 marker scores calculated across all markers associated with age and mortality, respectively.

RESULTS

The majority of markers (30/34) were associated with age, with stronger associations observed for neopterin, cystatin C, interleukin (IL)-6, tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), several markers of the kynurenine pathway and derived indices KTR (kynurenine/tryptophan ratio), PAr index (ratio of 4-pyridoxic acid and the sum of pyridoxal 5'-phosphate and pyridoxal), and HK:XA (3-hydroxykynurenine/xanthurenic acid ratio). Many markers (17/34) showed an association with mortality, in particular IL-6, neopterin, C-reactive protein, quinolinic acid, PAr index, and KTR. The inflammaging signature included 10 markers and was strongly associated with mortality (hazard ratio [HR] per SD = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.24-1.57, p = 2 × 10-8), similar to scores based on all age-associated (HR = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.23-1.55, p = 4 × 10-8) and mortality-associated markers (HR = 1.43, 95% CI: 1.28-1.60, p = 1 × 10-10), respectively. Strong evidence of replication of the inflammaging signature association with mortality was found in the Hordaland Health Study.

CONCLUSION

Our study highlights the key role of the kynurenine pathway and vitamin B6 catabolism in aging, along with other well-established inflammation-related markers. A signature of inflammaging based on 10 markers was strongly associated with mortality.

Television viewing time and all-cause mortality: interactions with BMI, physical activity, smoking, and dietary factors

BACKGROUND

Higher levels of time spent sitting (sedentary behavior) contribute to adverse health outcomes, including earlier death. This effect may be modified by other lifestyle factors. We examined the association of television viewing (TV), a common leisure-time sedentary behavior, with all-cause mortality, and whether this is modified by body mass index (BMI), physical activity, smoking, alcohol intake, soft drink consumption, or diet-associated inflammation.

METHODS

Using data from participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, flexible parametric survival models assessed the time-dependent association of self-reported TV time (three categories: < 2 h/day, 2-3 h/day, > 3 h/day) with all-cause mortality. Interaction terms were fitted to test whether there was effect modification of TV time by the other risk factors.

RESULTS

From 19,570 participants, 4,417 deaths were reported over a median follow up of 14.5 years. More TV time was associated with earlier mortality; however, this relationship diminished with increasing age. The hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for > 3 h/day compared with < 2 h/day of TV time was 1.34 (1.16, 1.55) at 70 years, 1.14 (1.04, 1.23) at 80 years, and 0.95 (0.84, 1.06) at 90 years. The TV time/mortality relationship was more evident in participants who were physically inactive (compared with active; p for interaction < 0.01) or had a higher dietary inflammatory index score (compared with a lower score; p for interaction = 0.03). No interactions were detected between TV time and BMI, smoking, alcohol intake, nor soft-drink consumption (all p for interaction > 0.16).

CONCLUSIONS

The relationship between TV time and all-cause mortality may change with age. It may also be more pronounced in those who are otherwise inactive or who have a pro-inflammatory diet.

The BC Generations Project as a Tumor Tissue Resource for Cancer Research

Population-based cohort studies can be a resource for tumor specimens, annotated with demographic, lifestyle, and health history data, that support innovative studies of cancer. Our aim was to establish and test a process for accessing tumor samples, held at pathology laboratories around British Columbia (BC), for participants of the BC Generations Project (BCGP). Through the BC Cancer Registry, we identified pathology reports for 1100 (93%) of the 1180 incident solid cancer cases diagnosed in BCGP as of 2019. Using manually abstracted data from the reports, we successfully retrieved 183 (92%) of the 200 formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) blocks (breast, lung, bladder, and pancreas cancer cases) that we requested from pathology laboratories. No important differences in retrieval rates by cancer site, sample location (Greater Vancouver vs. Outside Greater Vancouver), sample type (biopsy vs. excision) or year of diagnosis were identified. A text mining solution recently implemented by the Registry will allow us to automate the process for data abstraction and should capture pathology reports for 100% of all newly diagnosed BCGP cancer cases moving forward. This will further enhance the utility of BCGP as a high-quality tumor tissue research resource.

Genome-wide association study identifies tumor anatomical site-specific risk variants for colorectal cancer survival

Identification of new genetic markers may improve the prediction of colorectal cancer prognosis. Our objective was to examine genome-wide associations of germline genetic variants with disease-specific survival in an analysis of 16,964 cases of colorectal cancer. We analyzed genotype and colorectal cancer-specific survival data from a consortium of 15 studies. Approximately 7.5 million SNPs were examined under the log-additive model using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for clinical factors and principal components. Additionally, we ran secondary analyses stratifying by tumor site and disease stage. We used a genome-wide p-value threshold of 5 × 10-8 to assess statistical significance. No variants were statistically significantly associated with disease-specific survival in the full case analysis or in the stage-stratified analyses. Three SNPs were statistically significantly associated with disease-specific survival for cases with tumors located in the distal colon (rs698022, HR = 1.48, CI 1.30-1.69, p = 8.47 × 10-9) and the proximal colon (rs189655236, HR = 2.14, 95% CI 1.65-2.77, p = 9.19 × 10-9 and rs144717887, HR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.57-2.58, p = 3.14 × 10-8), whereas no associations were detected for rectal tumors. Findings from this large genome-wide association study highlight the potential for anatomical-site-stratified genome-wide studies to identify germline genetic risk variants associated with colorectal cancer-specific survival. Larger sample sizes and further replication efforts are needed to more fully interpret these findings.