The state of the HIV epidemic in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: a novel application of disease metrics to assess trajectories and highlight areas for intervention

Improving HIV testing, linkage, and retention in care among South African men through U = U messaging: A study protocol for two sequential hybrid type 1 effectiveness-implementation randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Increasing HIV testing and treatment coverage among people living with HIV (PLHIV) is essential for achieving global HIV epidemic control. However, compared to women, cis-gender heterosexual men living with HIV are significantly less likely to know their HIV status, initiate anti-retroviral therapy (ART) and achieve viral suppression. This is particularly true in South Africa, where men are also at increased risk of mortality resulting from AIDS-related illnesses. While there is growing knowledge of Treatment as Prevention or the concept Undetectable = Untransmittable (U = U) among PLHIV in Western and high-income countries, the reach and penetration of the U = U message in sub-Saharan Africa remains limited, and few studies have evaluated the impact of accessible and relatable U = U messages on ART initiation and adherence. To address these gaps, rigorous evaluations of interventions that incorporate U = U messages are needed, especially among men in high prevalence settings.

METHODS

Building on our U = U messages that we previously developed for men using behavioral economics insights and a human-centered design, we will conduct two sequential hybrid type 1 effectiveness-implementation trials to evaluate the impact of U = U messages on men's uptake of community-based HIV testing and ART initiation (Trial 1), and retention in care and achievement of viral suppression (Trial 2). For trial 1, a cluster randomized trial will be implemented with HIV testing service site-days (each day at one testing site) randomized to U = U or standard-of-care (SoC) messages inviting men to test for HIV. For trial 2, an individual-level randomized control trial will be implemented, with men initiating ART at six government clinics randomized to receive U = U counselling or SoC treatment adherence messaging. We will incorporate a multi-method evaluation to inform future implementation of U = U messaging interventions. The study will be conducted in the Buffalo City Metro Health District of the Eastern Cape Province and in the Cape Town Metro Health District in the Western Cape Province in South Africa.

DISCUSSION

These trials are the first to rigorously evaluate the impact of U = U messaging on HIV testing uptake, ART initiation and achievement of viral suppression among African men. If effective, these messaging interventions can shape global HIV testing, treatment and adherence counselling guidelines and practices.

Improving HIV testing, linkage, and retention in care among South African men through U=U messaging: A study protocol for two sequential hybrid type 1 effectiveness- implementation randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Increasing HIV testing and treatment coverage among people living with HIV (PLHIV) is essential for achieving global AIDS epidemic control. However, compared to women, cis-gender heterosexual men living with HIV are significantly less likely to know their HIV status, initiate anti-retroviral therapy (ART) and achieve viral suppression. This is particularly true in South Africa, where men are also at increased risk of mortality resulting from AIDS-related illnesses. While there is growing knowledge of Treatment as Prevention or the concept Undetectable=Untransmittable (U=U) among PLHIV in Western and high-income countries, the reach and penetration of the U=U message in sub-Saharan Africa remains limited, and few studies have evaluated the impact of accessible and relatable U=U messages on ART initiation and adherence. To address these gaps, rigorous evaluations of interventions that incorporate U=U messages are needed, especially among men in high prevalence settings.

METHODS

Building on our U=U messages that we previously developed for men using behavioral economics insights and a human-centered design, we will conduct two sequential hybrid type 1 effectiveness-implementation trials to evaluate the impact of U=U messages on men's uptake of community-based HIV testing and ART initiation (Trial 1), and retention in care and achievement of viral suppression (Trial 2). A cluster randomized trial will be implemented for Trial 1, with HIV testing service site-days randomized to U=U or standard-of-care (SoC) messages inviting men to test for HIV. An individual-level randomized control trial will be implemented for Trial 2, with men initiating ART at six government clinics randomized to receive U=U counselling or SoC treatment adherence messaging. We will incorporate a multi-method evaluation to inform future implementation of U=U messaging interventions. The study will be conducted in the Buffalo City Metro Health District of the Eastern Cape Province and in the Cape Town Metro Health District in the Western Cape Province in South Africa.

DISCUSSION

These trials are the first to rigorously evaluate the impact of U=U messaging on HIV testing uptake, ART initiation and achievement of viral suppression among African men. If effective, these messaging interventions can shape global HIV testing, treatment and adherence counselling guidelines and practices.

Performance of the automated Sysmex XN-3000 analyser for detecting white blood cell abnormalities in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Automated haematology analysers such as the Sysmex XN-3000 (Sysmex Corporation, Kobe, Japan) utilise white blood cell (WBC) flags to identify quantitative and qualitative abnormalities. Owing to clinical and biological factors, the sensitivity and specificity of the flags vary when compared to microscopy, the gold-standard method for assessing peripheral blood smear (PBS) morphology.

OBJECTIVE

This study assessed the performance of the Sysmex XN-3000 haematology analyser in comparison to PBS microscopy for the detection of WBC abnormalities.

METHODS

We collected 250 random full blood count samples from the haematology laboratory at Inkosi Albert Luthuli Central Hospital, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, from March 2022 to April 2022. The performance of the automated WBC flags of the Sysmex XN-3000 was assessed in comparison to PBS microscopy, and the impact of established clinical variables on the performance of the flags was determined.

RESULTS

The sensitivity of the 'blast' flag was 96.3%, and the specificity was 84.9%. The efficiency of the flag was adversely impacted by low white cell counts (< 1.5 × 109/L; p < 0.001), chemotherapy (p = 0.002), malignancy (p = 0.02), and infection (p = 0.02). The 'abnormal lymphocyte' flag demonstrated a sensitivity of 90% and a specificity of 96.2%, and its performance was adversely impacted by chemotherapy exposure (p = 0.03). Three cases (1.2%) erroneously flagged as 'monocytosis' demonstrated blasts on microscopy.

CONCLUSION

In our setting, PBS microscopy remains necessary to confirm blasts, abnormal lymphocytes, and monocytosis in patients with malignancy, current chemotherapy exposure, low white cell counts, and infection.

WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS

This study adds evidence that PBS morphology remains the gold standard for confirming WBC abnormalities in patients with a history of malignancy, chemotherapy, and leucopenia.

Achieving the 95 95 95 targets for all: A pathway to ending AIDS

In December 2020, UNAIDS released a new set of ambitious targets calling for 95% of all people living with HIV to know their HIV status, 95% of all people with diagnosed HIV infection to receive sustained antiretroviral therapy, and 95% of all people receiving antiretroviral therapy to have viral suppression by 2025. Adopted by United Nations Member states in June 2021 as part of the new Political Declaration on HIV and AIDS, these targets, combined with ambitious primary prevention targets and focused attention to supporting enablers, aim to bridge inequalities in treatment coverage and outcomes and accelerate HIV incidence reductions by focusing on progress in all sub-populations, age groups and geographic settings. Here we summarise the evidence and decisions underpinning the new global targets.

V. M. L, Dutta S, Devi HS, Vardhana Rao Mendu V, Kant S, Pandey A, Reddy DCS, Mehendale S, Rajan S. Diversity in HIV epidemic transitions in India: An application of HIV epidemiological metrices and benchmarks

Background

The Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) has emphasized on the incidence-prevalence ratio (IPR) and incidence-mortality ratio (IMR) to measure the progress in HIV epidemic control. In this paper, we describe the status of epidemic control in India and in various states in terms of UNAIDS’s recommended metrices.

Method

The National AIDS Control Programme (NACP) of India spearheads work on mathematical modelling to estimate HIV burden based on periodically conducted sentinel surveillance for providing guidance to program implementation and policymaking. Using the results of the latest round of HIV Estimations in 2019, IPR and IMR were calculated.

Results

National level IPR was 0.029 [0.022–0.037] in 2019 and ranged from 0.01 to 0.15 in various States and Union Territories (UTs). Corresponding Incidence-Mortality Ratio was at 0.881 [0.754–1.014] nationally and ranged between 0.20 and 12.90 across the States/UTs.

Conclusions

Based on UNAIDS recommended indicators for HIV epidemic control, namely IPR and IMR; national AIDS response in India appears on track. However, the program success is not uniform and significant heterogeneity as well as expanding epidemic was observed at the level of States or UTs. Reinforcing States/UTs specific and focused HIV prevention, testing and treatment initiatives may help in the attainment of 2030 Sustainable Development Goals of ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.

Geo-analysis: the distribution of community health workers in relation to the HIV prevalence in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa

BACKGROUND

The South African Ward Based Primary Health Care Outreach Team (WBPHCOT) policy framework states that the distribution of community health workers (CHWs) should be proportional to levels of poverty and disease within the population. We aimed to describe the spatial distribution of CHWs in relation to the prevalence of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) which has itself been associated with poverty in previous studies.

METHODS

This was a descriptive, cross-sectional study in which secondary data was used for geospatial analysis. Based on the extrapolation from the norm of one WBPHCOT per 6000 individuals, we utilized geographic information system (GIS) methods to visualize the distribution of CHWs in relation to the prevalence of HIV in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN). Dot density mapping was used to visualize the random distribution of CHWs in relation to HIV prevalence and population in the districts. The districts' HIV prevalence, number of PLWH, ratio of CHW: people living with HIV (PLWH), ratio of CHW: population and poverty scores were mapped using choropleth mapping. MapInfo Pro 17.0 was used to map geospatial presentation of the data.

RESULTS

Overall, KZN province showed under allocation of CHWs with a CHW: people ratio of 1: 1156 compared to the estimated norm of 1: 600-1000. At district level, only two of 11 districts met the suggested norm of CHW: PLWH (1: 109-181). This indicates shortages and misallocation of CHWs in the nine remaining districts. Furthermore, our findings showed extensive geospatial heterogeneity with no clear pattern in the distribution of CHWs. There was no relationship between CHW distribution and HIV prevalence or poverty scores in the districts.

CONCLUSION

This study shows inequality in the distribution of CHWs which may be associated with inequalities in the provision of HIV related services. It is critical to strengthen the response to the HIV epidemic through the appropriate distribution of CHWs especially in those districts with high levels of HIV prevalence and poverty.

The role of high-risk geographies in the perpetuation of the HIV epidemic in rural South Africa: A spatial molecular epidemiology study

In this study, we hypothesize that HIV geographical clusters (geospatial areas with significantly higher numbers of HIV positive individuals) can behave as the highly connected nodes in the transmission network. Using data come from one of the most comprehensive demographic surveillance systems in Africa, we found that more than 70% of the HIV transmission links identified were directly connected to an HIV geographical cluster located in a peri-urban area. Moreover, we identified a single central large community of highly connected nodes located within the HIV cluster. This module was composed by nodes highly connected among them, forming a central structure of the network that was also connected with the small sparser modules located outside of the HIV geographical cluster. Our study supports the evidence of the high level of connectivity between HIV geographical high-risk populations and the entire community.

Mortality in HIV and tuberculosis patients following implementation of integrated HIV-TB treatment: Results from an open-label cluster-randomized trial

BACKGROUND

HIV-TB treatment integration reduces mortality. Operational implementation of integrated services is challenging. This study assessed the impact of quality improvement (QI) for HIV-TB integration on mortality within primary healthcare (PHC) clinics in South Africa.

METHODS

An open-label cluster randomized controlled study was conducted between 2016 and 2018 in 40 rural clinics in South Africa. The study statistician randomized PHC nurse-supervisors 1:1 into 16 clusters (eight nurse-supervisors supporting 20 clinics per arm) to receive QI, supported HIV-TB integration intervention or standard of care (control). Nurse supervisors and clinics under their supervision, based in the study health districts were eligible for inclusion in this study. Nurse supervisors were excluded if their clinics were managed by municipal health (different resource allocation), did not offer co-located antiretroviral therapy (ART) and TB services, services were performed by a single nurse, did not receive non-governmental organisation (NGO) support, patient data was not available for > 50% of attendees. The analysis population consists of all patients newly diagnosed with (i) both TB and HIV (ii) HIV only (among patients previously treated for TB or those who never had TB before) and (iii) TB only (among patients already diagnosed with HIV or those who were never diagnosed with HIV) after QI implementation in the intervention arm, or enrolment in the control arm. Mortality rates was assessed 12 months post enrolment, using unpaired t-tests and cox-proportional hazards model. (Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT02654613, registered 01 June 2015, trial closed).

FINDINGS

Overall, 21 379 participants were enrolled between December 2016 and December 2018 in intervention and control arm clinics: 1329 and 841 HIV-TB co-infected (10·2%); 10 799 and 6 611 people living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)/ acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) (PLWHA) only (81·4%); 1 131 and 668 patients with TB only (8·4%), respectively. Average cluster sizes were 1657 (range 170-5782) and 1015 (range 33-2027) in intervention and control arms. By 12 months, 6529 (68·7%) and 4074 (70·4%) were alive and in care, 568 (6·0%) and 321 (5·6%) had completed TB treatment, 1078 (11·3%) and 694 (12·0%) were lost to follow-up, with 245 and 156 deaths occurring in intervention and control arms, respectively. Mortality rates overall [95% confidence interval (CI)] was 4·5 (3·4-5·9) in intervention arm, and 3·8 (2·6-5·4) per 100 person-years in control arm clusters [mortality rate ratio (MRR): 1·19 (95% CI 0·79-1·80)]. Mortality rates among HIV-TB co-infected patients was 10·1 (6·7-15·3) and 9·8 (5·0-18·9) per 100 person-years, [MRR: 1·04 (95% CI 0·51-2·10)], in intervention and control arm clusters, respectively.

INTERPRETATION

HIV-TB integration supported by a QI intervention did not reduce mortality in HIV-TB co-infected patients. Demonstrating mortality benefit from health systems process improvements in real-world operational settings remains challenging. Despite the study being potentially underpowered to demonstrate the effect size, integration interventions were implemented using existing facility staff and infrastructure reflecting the real-world context where most patients in similar settings access care, thereby improving generalizability and scalability of study findings.

FUNDING

Research reported in this publication was supported by South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), and UK Government's Newton Fund through United Kingdom Medical Research Council (UKMRC).

The geography and inter-community configuration of new sexual partnership formation in a rural South African population over fourteen years (2003-2016)

Understanding spatial configuration of sexual network structure is critical for effective use of HIV preventative interventions in a community. However, this has never been described at the population level for any setting in sub-Saharan Africa. We constructed the comprehensive geospatial sexual network among new heterosexual partnerships in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. In the Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI)'s population-based surveillance, we identified stable sexual partnerships among individuals (≥15 years) from 2003 to 2016. Sexual partnerships and residency were recorded via household surveys (every 4-6 months). We geolocated residents and migration events and mapped the geospatial linkages of sexual partners at the start of sexual partnerships. In a grid composed by 108 cells (nodes; 3kmx3km per cell) covering the surveillance area (438km2), we calculated the degree of connectivity and centrality of the nodes and examined their association with HIV prevalence and incidence per cell. Of 2401 new sexual partnerships, 21% (n = 495) had both partners living within the surveillance area at the start of sexual partnerships, and 76% (376/495) were linked to the geographic HIV cluster with high HIV prevalence identified in a peri-urban community. Overall, 57 nodes had at least one connection to another node. The nodes in the peri-urban cluster had higher connectivity (mean = 19, range: 9-32), compared to outside the cluster (6, range: 1-16). The node's degree of connectivity was positively associated with HIV prevalence of the cell (Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.67; p <0.005). The peri-urban cluster contained nine of the 10 nodes that composed of a single large central module in the community. About 17% of sexual partnerships (n = 421) were formed between a resident and a non-resident partner who out-migrated. Most of these non-resident partners lived in KwaZulu-Natal (86.7%), followed by Gauteng (9.7%), and the median distance between a resident and a non-resident partner was 50.1km (IQR: 23.2-177.2). We found that the peri-urban HIV cluster served as the highly connected central node of the network for sexual partnership formation. The network was also connected beyond the surveillance area across South Africa. Understanding spatial sexual network can improve the provision of spatially targeted and effective interventions.

Optimising a couples-focused intervention to increase couples' HIV testing and counselling using the person-based approach: a qualitative study in Kwa-Zulu Natal, South Africa

OBJECTIVES

This qualitative study explored how to optimise a couples-focused intervention to promote couples HIV testing and counselling (CHTC).

SETTING

Community setting in Kwa-Zulu Natal, South Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

Qualitative interviews were conducted with 20 couples who had participated in a couples-focused intervention and five staff members delivering the intervention. Partners were interviewed individually by researchers of the same gender.

INTERVENTION

A couples-focused intervention comprised of two group sessions and four couples counselling sessions was previously shown to significantly increase uptake to CHTC in Kwa-Zulu Natal, South Africa. However, more than half of couples participating in the intervention still chose not to test together during follow-up.

ANALYSIS

The transcripts were analysed using the table of changes from the person-based approach. Proposed optimisations were discussed with a community group to ensure the intervention was as persuasive and acceptable as possible.

RESULTS

Many couples found it challenging to discuss CHTC with their partner due to an implied lack of trust. Optimisations to the intervention were identified to increase readiness to discuss CHTC, including education about serodiscordance, discussions about CHTC by peer mentors and open discussion of personal barriers to CHTC during couples' counselling sessions. Additional training for staff in open questioning techniques could help them feel more comfortable to explore couples' perceived barriers to CHTC, rather than advising couples to test. A logic model was developed to show anticipated mechanisms through which the optimised intervention would increase uptake to CHTC, including increasing knowledge, increasing positive outcome beliefs and managing negative emotions.

CONCLUSIONS

In-depth qualitative research informed optimisations to a couples-focused intervention for further evaluation in South Africa to encourage uptake to CHTC. Suggestions are made for optimal methods to gain open feedback on intervention experiences where participants may be reluctant to share negative views.

The development of an explanatory model for voluntary medical male circumcision in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

BACKGROUND

KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) remains the epicentre of the human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic in South Africa. The incidence of HIV infection in KZN necessitates cost-effective strategies to curb the spread of infection. Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) has been adopted as an additional biomedical preventive strategy since 2010 in line with recommendations from the World Health Organization. Despite several attempts to scale-up VMMC to reach age specific targets to achieve immediate aversion of infections, the uptake of VMMC remains sub-optimal, particularly in KZN. The purpose of this study is to describe the processes that were followed in developing, describing and evaluating an explanatory model for VMMC in KZN, South Africa.

METHODS

A qualitative theory-generative phenomenographic study design was used to analyse the qualitative differences in primary healthcare stakeholders' experiences, understanding and conceptions of VMMC in KZN, South Africa. The emerging results informed the development of the VMMC explanatory model for KZN, South Africa. The model development process followed four steps, namely (1) concept analysis, (2) construction of relational statements, (3) model description and (4) model evaluation. The criteria of relevance for the target audience - applicability, clarity, user friendliness and originality of work - were used to evaluate the model.

RESULTS

The model's central premise is that the decision to undergo VMMC is shaped by a complex interplay of factors in the context or external environment of males (the extrinsic variable), which influences specific experiences, conceptions and understanding regarding VMMC (the influential/intrinsic variables). These collectively determine men's responses to VMMC (the outcome variable).

CONCLUSION

The model describes the process by which contextual, extrinsic and intrinsic variables interact to determine an individual male's response to VMMC, thus providing a guide to primary healthcare providers on care, practice and policy interventions to support the uptake of VMMC in the rural primary healthcare context of KZN, South Africa.

Beyond HIV prevalence: identifying people living with HIV within underserved areas in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Despite progress towards the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 95-95-95 targets, South Africa is still suffering from one of the largest HIV epidemics globally. In this study, we generated high-resolution HIV prevalence maps and identified people living with HIV (PLHIV) in underserved areas to provide essential information for the optimal allocation of HIV-related services.

METHODS

The data come from the South Africa Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2016 and spatial variables from other published literature. We produced high-resolution maps of HIV prevalence and underserved areas, defined as a greater than 30 min travel time to the nearest healthcare facility. Using these maps and the population density, we mapped PLHIV and the PLHIV within underserved areas for 30, 60 and 120 min thresholds.

RESULTS

There was substantial geographic variation in HIV prevalence, ranging from 1.4% to 24.2%, with a median of 11.5% for men, and from 2.1% to 48.1%, with a median of 20.6% for women. Gauteng province showed the highest density for both HIV prevalence and PLHIV. 80% of all areas in the country were identified as underserved areas (30 min threshold), which contained more than 16% and 20% of the total men and women living with HIV, respectively. KwaZulu-Natal province had the largest number of PLHIV in underserved areas (30 min threshold) and showed less than one healthcare facility per 1000 PLHIV.

CONCLUSION

Our study showed extensive spatial variation of HIV prevalence and significant numbers of PLHIV in underserved areas in South Africa. Moreover, we identified locations where HIV-related services need to be intensified to reach the ~1.5 million PLHIV in underserved areas, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal province, with less than one healthcare facility per 1000 PLHIV.

World AIDS Day 2020: Reflections on global and South African progress and continuing challenges

Background

Reflecting on progress and challenges in meeting global human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) targets is often done ahead of World AIDS Day. This article reflects on progress and the continuing challenges in meeting targets in South Africa (SA).

Objective

To review policy and implementation related progress and continuing challenges towards eliminating HIV as a public health threat by 2030.

Method

Policy analysis and review of modeling data from Thembisa 4.3.

Results

South Africa has made significant progress in the adoption of policies with two exceptions. While there are gaps in reaching the 90-90-90 implementation targets, progress has been made in the past decade.

Conclusion

While progress has been made in the past decade towards the global targets, much work remains to ensure that HIV transmission is curtailed and those that require treatment are initiated on treatment and are virally suppressed.

Endocrine-disruptive chemicals as contaminants of emerging concern in wastewater and surface water: A review

Population growth followed by rapid development of industrialisation has caused serious environmental pollution with contaminants of emerging concern found in wastewater and surface water. As one of the most important resources for human survival, water is daily polluted by endocrine-disruptive chemicals (EDCs) including pharmaceuticals and personal care products, organic pollutants and heavy metals. Even at low concentrations in water bodies, chronic exposure to EDCs can cause adverse effects on human and environment health. The main concern with EDCs is the diseases they can generate in humans or wildlife by affecting the function of hormones in the body. Problems in the reproductive system, thyroid problems, Alzheimer's, cancer and obesity are some of the major effects of EDCs in humans. In wildlife, the reproductive system may be affected, including its levels of hatchability and vitellogenin. The efforts of the present review are on emphasising on the environmental concern on the occurrence and risk assessment of EDCs, their harmful effects in the ecosystem, human life, and wildlife, as a result of their incomplete removal from wastewater treatment plants. The review focuses on studies conducted in South Africa highlights the use of fungal bioreactors as a low-cost and eco-effective environmentally friendly wastewater treatment processes.

BMI and All-Cause Mortality in a Population-Based Cohort in Rural South Africa

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluates the association between BMI and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in South Africa.

METHODS

Prospective, population-based observational cohort data from rural South Africa were analyzed. BMI was measured in 2010. Demographic characteristics were recorded and deaths were verified with verbal autopsy interview. The InterVA-5 tool was used to assign causes of death. HIV testing was conducted annually. Cox proportional hazards models were fit to estimate the effect of BMI on all-cause and cause-specific mortality, accounting for the competing risk of death from other causes. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics and HIV status, and inverse probability weighting for survey nonparticipation was used.

RESULTS

The cohort consisted of 9,728 individuals. In adjusted models, those with BMI of 25.0 to 29.9 kg/m² or 30.0 to 34.9 kg/m² had a lower hazard of death (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.69-0.92 and adjusted hazard ratio: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.60-0.93, respectively) compared with those with BMI of 18.5 to 24.9 kg/m² .

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals in South Africa who meet clinically defined criteria for overweight or obesity had a lower risk of all-cause mortality than those with a normal BMI. These findings were stronger for women and communicable conditions.

Trends in the prevalence and incidence of orphanhood in children and adolescents <20 years in rural KwaZulu-Natal South Africa, 2000-2014

BACKGROUND

In South Africa, large increases in early adult mortality during the 1990s and early 2000s have reversed since public HIV treatment rollout in 2004. In a rural population in KwaZulu-Natal, we investigate trends in parental mortality and orphanhood from 2000-2014.

METHODS

Using longitudinal demographic surveillance data for a population of approximately 90,000, we calculated annual incidence and prevalence of maternal, paternal and double orphanhood in children and adolescents (<20 years) and, overall and cause-specific mortality of parents by age.

RESULTS

The proportion of children and adolescents (<20 years) for whom one or both parents had died rose from 26% in 2000 to peak at 36% in 2010, followed by a decline to 32% in 2014. The burden of orphanhood remains high especially in the oldest age group: in 2014, 53% of adolescents 15-19 years had experienced the death of one or both parents. In all age groups and years, paternal orphan prevalence was three-five times higher than maternal orphan prevalence. Maternal and paternal orphan incidence peaked in 2005 at 17 and 27 per 1,000 person years respectively (<20 years) before declining by half through 2014. The leading cause of parental death throughout the period, HIV/AIDS and TB cause-specific mortality rates declined substantially in mothers and fathers from 2007 and 2009 respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The survival of parents with children and adolescents <20 years has improved in tandem with earlier initiation and higher coverage of HIV treatment. However, comparatively high levels of parental deaths persist in this rural population in KwaZulu-Natal, particularly among fathers. Community-level surveillance to estimate levels of orphanhood remains important for monitoring and evaluation of targeted state welfare support for orphans and their guardians.

HIV incidence declines in a rural South African population: a G-imputation approach for inference

BACKGROUND

Ad hoc assumptions about the unobserved infection event, which is known only to occur between the latest-negative and earliest-positive test dates, can lead to biased HIV incidence rate estimates. Using a G-imputation approach, we infer the infection dates from covariate data to estimate the HIV incidence rate in a hyper-endemic South African setting.

METHODS

A large demographic surveillance system has annually tested a cohort of HIV-uninfected participants living in the KwaZulu-Natal province. Using this data, we estimated a cumulative baseline hazard function and the effects of time-dependent covariates on the interval censored infection dates. For each HIV-positive participant in the cohort, we derived a cumulative distribution function and sampled multiple infection dates conditional on the unique covariate values. We right censored the data at the imputed dates, calculated the annual HIV incidence rate per 100 person-years, and used Rubin's rules to obtain the 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

A total of 20,011 uninfected individuals with a repeat HIV test participated in the incidence cohort between 2005 and 2018. We observed 2,603 infections per 58,769 person-years of follow-up among women and 845 infections per 41,178 person-years of follow-up among men. Conditional on age and circumcision status (men only), the female HIV incidence rate declined by 25%, from 5.0 to 3.7 infections per 100 person-years between 2014 and 2018. During this period, the HIV incidence rate among men declined from 2.1 to 1.1 infections per 100 person-years-a reduction of 49%. We observed similar reductions in male and female HIV incidence conditional on condom-use, marital status, urban residential status, migration history, and the HIV prevalence in the surrounding community.

CONCLUSION

We have followed participants in one of the world's largest and longest running HIV cohorts to estimate long-term trends in the population-wide incidence of infection. Using a G-imputation approach, we present further evidence for HIV incidence rate declines in this hyper-endemic South African setting.

Opportunities and Challenges in HIV Treatment as Prevention Research: Results from the ANRS 12249 Cluster-Randomized Trial and Associated Population Cohort

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The ANRS 12249 treatment as prevention (TasP) trial investigated the impact of a universal test and treat (UTT) approach on reducing HIV incidence in one of the regions of the world most severely affected by the HIV epidemic-KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We summarize key findings from this trial as well as recent findings from controlled studies conducted in the linked population cohort quantifying the long-term effects of expanding ART on directly measured HIV incidence (2004-2017).

RECENT FINDINGS

The ANRS TasP trial did not-and could not-demonstrate a reduction in HIV incidence, because the offer of UTT in the intervention communities did not increase ART coverage and population viral suppression compared to the standard of care in the control communities. Ten controlled studies from the linked population cohort-including several quasi-experimental study designs-exploit heterogeneity in ART exposure to show a consistent and substantial impact of expanding provision of ART and population viral suppression on reduction in HIV incidence at the couple, household, community, and population levels. In this setting, all of the evidence from large, population-based studies (inclusive of the ANRS TasP trial) is remarkably coherent and consistent-i.e., higher ART coverage and population viral suppression were repeatedly associated with clear, measurable decreases in HIV incidence. Thus, the expanded provision of ART has plausibly contributed in a major way toward the dramatic 43% decline in population-level HIV incidence in this typical rural African population. The outcome of the ANRS TasP trial constitutes a powerful null finding with important insights for overcoming implementation challenges in the population delivery of ART. This finding does not imply lack of ART effectiveness in blocking onward transmission of HIV nor its inability to reduce HIV incidence. Rather, it demonstrates that large increases in ART coverage over current levels will require health systems innovations to attract people living with HIV in early stages of the disease to participate in HIV treatment. Such innovations and new approaches are required for the true potential of UTT to be realized.