Survival patterns of the first 500 patients with AIDS in San Francisco

Survival rate of AIDS disease and mortality in HIV-infected patients: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The life expectancy of patients with human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) reported by several epidemiological studies is inconsistent. This meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the survival rate from HIV diagnosis to AIDS onset and from AIDS onset to death.

METHODS

The electronic databases PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus were searched to February 2016. In addition, the reference lists of included studies were checked to identify further references, and the database of the International AIDS Society was also searched. Cohort studies addressing the survival rate in patients diagnosed with HIV/AIDS were included in this meta-analysis. The outcomes of interest were the survival rate of patients diagnosed with HIV progressing to AIDS, and the survival rate of patients with AIDS dying from AIDS-related causes with or without highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). The survival rate (P) was estimated with 95% confidence intervals based on random-effects models.

RESULTS

In total, 27,862 references were identified, and 57 studies involving 294,662 participants were included in this meta-analysis. Two, 4-, 6-, 8-, 10- and 12-year survival probabilities of progression from HIV diagnosis to AIDS onset were estimated to be 82%, 72%, 64%, 57%, 26% and 19%, respectively. Two, 4-, 6-, 8- and 10-year survival probabilities of progression from AIDS onset to AIDS-related death in patients who received HAART were estimated to be 87%, 86%, 78%, 78%, and 61%, respectively, and 2-, 4- and 6-year survival probabilities of progression from AIDS onset to AIDS-related death in patients who did not receive HAART were estimated to be 48%, 26% and 18%, respectively. Evidence of considerable heterogeneity was found. The majority of the studies had a moderate to high risk of bias.

CONCLUSION

The majority of HIV-positive patients progress to AIDS within the first decade of diagnosis. Most patients who receive HAART will survive for >10 years after the onset of AIDS, whereas the majority of the patients who do not receive HAART die within 2 years of the onset of AIDS.

Association of aging and survival in a large HIV-infected cohort on antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE

To examine if there is a significant difference in survival between elderly (>50 years) and nonelderly adult patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy in Uganda between 2004 and 2010.

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

METHODS

Patients 18-49 years of age (nonelderly) and 50 years of age and older enrolled in the AIDS Support Organization Uganda HIV/AIDS national programme were assessed for time to all-cause mortality. We applied a Weibull multivariable regression.

RESULTS

Among the 22 087 patients eligible for analyses, 19 657 (89.0%) were aged between 18 and 49 years and 2430 (11.0%) were aged 50 years or older. These populations differed in terms of the distributions of sex, baseline CD4 cell count and death. The age group 40-44 displayed the lowest crude mortality rate [31.4 deaths per 1000 person-years; 95% confidence interval (CI) 28.1, 34.7) and the age group 60-64 displayed the highest crude mortality rate (58.9 deaths per 1000 person-years; 95% CI 42.2, 75.5). Kaplan-Meier survival estimates indicated that nonelderly patients had better survival than elderly patients (P < 0.001). Adjusted Weibull analysis indicated that elderly age status was importantly associated (adjusted hazard ratio 1.23, 95% CI 1.08-1.42) with mortality, when controlling for sex, baseline CD4 cell count and year of therapy initiation.

CONCLUSION

As antiretroviral treatment cohorts mature, the proportion of patients who are elderly will inevitably increase. Elderly patients may require focused clinical care that extends beyond HIV treatment.

Cost-effectiveness of routine and low-cost CD4 T-cell count compared with WHO clinical staging of HIV to guide initiation of antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings

BACKGROUND

HIV is a major cause of disease and death in sub-Saharan Africa. Provision and scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings is feasible and cost-effective. Initiation of ART is guided by WHO stage or CD4 cell count; the latter may not be available and up to 70% of eligible individuals are not identified. Low-cost CD4 cell count tests are comparable to conventional methods. We compared the direct healthcare costs and benefits using routine and low-cost CD4 cell count versus WHO staging to initiate ART.

METHODS

Using a Markov state transition model, we incorporated costs, survival and quality of life. We compared the direct healthcare costs and benefits in quality-adjusted life years gained using routine and low-cost CD4 cell count versus WHO staging to initiate ART. We estimated an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in US$ per quality-adjusted life year gained and compared with threshold of gross domestic product per capita. Uncertainty was assessed by sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

Routine and low-cost CD4 cell counts compared to WHO staging to guide initiation of ART improved quantity and quality of life and appears to be very cost-effective. The base case estimated an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$939 and US$85 per quality-adjusted life years gained, respectively, and well below the cost effectiveness thresholds of gross domestic product per capita.

CONCLUSION

Routine or low-cost CD4 cell count compared to WHO staging, to guide initiation of ART, is a very cost-effective intervention for sub-Saharan Africa and should be an integral part of the scale-up of ART programs.

A novel use of AIDS surveillance data to assess the impact of initial treatment regimen on survival

The expense in time and money limit the use of randomized clinical trials (RCT) and cohort studies for evaluating long-term AIDS treatment outcomes. We conducted a case-control study to characterize predictors of AIDS mortality after the availability of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in San Francisco, in which cases were matched with controls on stage of disease, year of AIDS diagnosis and year of HAART initiation. Overall, 266 cases and 1173 controls were included, representing >90% of eligible patients. The class of initial HAART regimen was not associated with mortality. Predictors of mortality were older age ([adjusted odds ratio] AOR 1.23, 95% [confidence interval] CI: 1.13-1.35), public versus private health insurance (AOR 2.80, 95% CI: 1.77-4.42), no versus private insurance (AOR 1.45, 95% CI: 1.02-2.07) and unboosted saquinavir (AOR 2.50, 95% CI: 1.34-4.65). Survival benefit was found in following the 2004 US Department of Health and Human Services preferred treatment guidelines; borderline survival benefits were found in following the guidelines from other years. Similar predictors were found for all-cause and AIDS-specific mortality. Our findings mirrored those of RCT and multi-centre cohort studies, and may be applicable to other settings. Our findings support similar survival benefit to persons initiating HAART with non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor- or protease inhibitor-based regimens.

Early prediction of median survival among a large AIDS surveillance cohort

Background

For individuals with AIDS, data exist relatively soon after diagnosis to allow estimation of "early" survival quantiles (e.g., the 0.10, 0.15, 0.20 and 0.30 quantiles, etc.). Many years of additional observation must elapse before median survival, a summary measure of survival, can be estimated accurately. In this study, a new approach to predict AIDS median survival is presented and its accuracy tested using AIDS surveillance data.

Methods

The data consisted of 96,373 individuals who were reported to the HIV/AIDS Reporting System of the California Department of Health Services Office of AIDS as of December 31, 1996. We defined cohorts based on quarter year of diagnosis (e.g., the "931" cohort consists of individuals diagnosed with AIDS in the first quarter of 1993). We used early quantiles (estimated using the Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighted estimator) of the survival distribution to estimate median survival by assuming a linear relationship between the earlier quantiles and median survival. From this model, median survival was predicted for cohorts for which a median could not be estimated empirically from the available data. This prediction was compared with the actual medians observed when using updated survival data reported at least five years later.

Results

Using the 0.15 quantile as the predictor and the data available as of December 31, 1996, we were able to predict the median survival of four cohorts (933, 934, 941, and 942) to be 34, 34, 31, and 29 months. Without this approach, there were insufficient data with which to make any estimate of median survival. The actual median survival of these four cohorts (using data as of December 31, 2001) was found to be 32, 40, 46, and 80 months, suggesting that the accuracy for this approach requires a minimum of three years to elapse from diagnosis to the time an accurate prediction can be made.

Conclusion

The results of this study suggest that early and accurate prediction of median survival time after AIDS diagnosis may be possible using early quantiles of the survival distribution. The methodology did not seem to work well during a period of significant change in survival as observed with highly active antiretroviral treatment, but results suggest that it may work well in a time of more gradual improvement in survival.

Perspective on HIV infection and aging: emerging research on the horizon

A greater prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals aged >50 years is projected. This epidemiologic trend will continue to increase as a result of not only greater survival rates among HIV-infected patients who receive treatment, but also of delayed recognition of older individuals with occult HIV disease. Historically, it was thought that, despite viral responses to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) among older individuals that approximate those of younger individuals, older persons infected with HIV could not mount as vigorous an immune response as do younger HIV-infected individuals. However, recent evidence suggests that older HIV-infected individuals may do just as well, because they may be more compliant with their antiretroviral regimens. Limited data are available on the safety and tolerability of HAART in this population. Emerging evidence suggests that metabolic, neuropsychiatric, and cardiovascular morbidities could be exacerbated by use of antiretrovirals or by HIV infection itself. Additional research is needed to optimize the care of older HIV-infected patients.

Greater effect of highly active antiretroviral therapy on survival in people aged > or =50 years compared with younger people in an urban observational cohort

Although human immunodeficiency virus-infected people aged > or =50 years have a blunted CD4 cell recovery when receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), there are few data on mortality. Mortality rates were studied for 253 individuals aged > or =50 years and a younger group of 535 people in a retrospective cohort; for untreated persons in each age group, the proportions surviving at 3 years were 83% and 70% (P<.01), respectively. No significant difference in the survival rate was found between the older (83%) and younger (89%) patients who received HAART (P=.29). The hazard ratio for death in the older untreated group was 2.4 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-3.9) when exposed to HAART. However, compared with older untreated patients, the hazard ratio for death decreased to 0.28 (95% CI, 0.15-0.52) for treated older adults. The effect of HAART substantially improves the survival rate for older individuals and supports the importance of treatment in this group.

Clinical experience with human immunodeficiency virus-infected older patients in the era of effective antiretroviral therapy

New therapies for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients suggest the need to examine whether these therapies are as effective in older patients as in younger patients. Fifty-two patients aged >/=50 years were compared with 52 patients aged <50 years for changes in CD4(+) counts, viral loads, opportunistic disease, hospitalizations, drug side effects, and death. No differences were found, except for higher rates of candidiasis in younger patients. Antiretroviral therapy seems to be equally effective in older and younger patients.

Clinical manifestations and survival trends during the first 12 years of the AIDS epidemic in Mexico

BACKGROUND

Our objective was to evaluate survival trends (1984-1995), the prevalence of AIDS-defining conditions, and the role of treatment with zidovudine and/or prophylaxis with trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX) in survival following AIDS diagnosis.

METHODS

We reviewed the clinical charts and postmortem studies of all patients admitted to the HIV Clinic from 1984-1995. Three groups were identified according to the following dates of HIV diagnosis: 1) 1984-1988; 2) 1989-1992, and 3) 1993-1995.

RESULTS

We studied 909 charts. During the study period, 744 (81.6%) patients developed AIDS. Median survival increased from 11.7 months in group 1 to 15.4 and 17.5 months in groups 2 and 3, respectively (p <0.05). We observed the following important changes in the frequency of AIDS-defining conditions over the study period: Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) decreased from 24.8 to 17 and 14% in groups 1, 2, and 3, respectively, (p = 0.008), and Kaposi's sarcoma (KS), from 31.1 to 10.5 and 13.5% (p <0.001). On the other hand, there was an increase in cytomegalovirus disease with 12.4, 20.4, and 18.6% (p = 0.04) and wasting syndrome with 36, 45, and 57% (p <0.001). In the proportional hazard model for death, zidovudine or TMP-SMX use was associated with a protective effect.

CONCLUSIONS

Survival is improving among patients with HIV infection at our institution. The prevalence of AIDS-defining conditions has changed over the last 12 years. There has been a diminution of PCP and KS, whereas cases of CMV disease and wasting syndrome increased.

Joint effects of HIV-1 RNA levels and CD4 lymphocyte cells on the risk of specific opportunistic infections

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the predictive value of baseline plasma HIV-1 RNA levels and CD4 lymphocyte counts and early changes in these markers after initiating antiretroviral therapy on the risk of development of specific opportunistic infections (OIs).

DESIGN

Patient data from four antiretroviral therapy studies were combined for a retrospective analysis. The analysis included 842 participants from the virology substudies of these trials who had baseline measurements for both HIV-1 RNA levels and CD4 cell counts.

METHODS

Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the joint effects of baseline CD4 cell count and HIV-1 RNA level and early treatment-associated changes in these values on the risk of development of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP), cytomegalovirus (CMV), or Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC). The effects of potential confounders such as prior prophylaxis and previous OIs were also addressed.

RESULTS

Baseline CD4 cell counts and HIV-1 RNA measurements showed significant associations with the risk of PCP, CMV, and MAC. Patients with higher levels of HIV-1 RNA were estimated to have three to six times the risk of these OIs than those with lower levels. Reductions in viral load were linked to significantly reduced risks of PCP, CMV, and MAC. Early decreases in RNA were generally more predictive of risk than were early increases in CD4 cell counts.

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline viral load and reductions in viral load during therapy appeared to influence the risk of these OIs independently of the CD4 cell count. Future guidelines for the initiation of prophylaxis for these OIs may be improved by incorporating information on viral load.

Influence of age on rates of new AIDS-defining diseases and survival in 6546 AIDS patients

It has consistently been reported that older AIDS patients have a shortened survival compared with younger patients. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether this difference in survival is caused by differences in the pattern of the complicating diseases. Information on patient follow-up after the AIDS diagnosis was obtained by retrospective case note review. The 6,546 patients were followed from the time of AIDS diagnosis as part of the multicentre AIDS in Europe study, which examined AIDS cases diagnosed at 52 centres in 17 European countries between 1979 and 1989. Occurrence of AIDS-defining events and demographic variables were recorded for all patients, and CD4 lymphocyte count at the time of AIDS diagnosis for approximately half the patients. After adjusting for imbalances in other variables, persons > or = 50 years of age had a significantly higher risk of contracting AIDS wasting syndrome, AIDS dementia complex and oesophageal candidiasis after the initial AIDS diagnosis, compared with age group 30-39 years [relative risk (RR) 95% confidence interval (CI)], 3.23 (2.70-3.75 CI); 2.48 (2.16-2.80 CI); 1.55 (1.26-1.83 CI), respectively]. Shortened survival after the time of AIDS diagnosis was associated with older age. After adjusting for pattern of complicating diseases, the age effect remained unchanged. Older age predisposes to AIDS-related wasting syndrome, AIDS dementia complex and oesophageal candidiasis. Independent of these differences, older age is significantly associated with shortened survival, suggesting that factors such as severity of complicating diseases or the capability of handling serious infections, rather than disease pattern, are responsible for the shortened survival.

Trends in survival of HIV infected patients attending the Department of Genito-Urinary Medicine, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh

In the early 1980s, median survival for patients with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) was only 11 months. Survival improved in the mid-1980s, reaching a median of 20 months. We have looked at the trends in survival of patients attending the Genito-urinary Medicine Department of Edinburgh Royal Infirmary between 1984 and 1996. Patients with an AIDS diagnosis between 1988 and 1991 had a median survival of 28 months, whereas patients given an AIDS diagnosis between 1992 and 1996 had a median survival of only 15 months (p = 0.01). However, survival from the point at which the CD4 lymphocyte count fell below 200 (CD4 200) remained unchanged. Patients diagnosed as AIDS after 1992 were more likely to have received prophylaxis against Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia or anti-retroviral therapy prior to an AIDS diagnosis. This may have resulted in the postponement of an AIDS defining diagnosis until the patients were more severely immuno-compromised, but has conferred no overall survival benefit.

HIV infection and aging: mechanisms to explain the accelerated rate of progression in the older patient

Age is an important predictor of progression in HIV infections. Not only do older individuals' develop AIDS more rapidly than younger persons, they die more quickly after developing an AIDS-defining illness. While the elderly have higher morbidity and mortality rates from viral and bacterial infections, the mechanism(s) responsible for the more rapid progression of HIV infection in older individuals has not been described. Our results demonstrate that the destruction of T cells in both young and old HIV infected patients progresses at the same rate. HIV 1-infected cells from older individuals do not appear more susceptible to immune mediated destruction. The more rapid progression appears due to an inability of older persons to replace functional T cells that are being destroyed. These findings suggest that improved survival in older HIV infected individuals will require more aggressive antiretroviral therapies as well as continued research to identify and preserve immune system elements that control the virus.

Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia

Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) remains an important complication of AIDS. Advances have been made in establishing the taxonomy of the organism but the life cycle of the organism and pathogenetic mechanisms of disease remain obscure. In HIV patients the incidence of PCP has decreased because of widespread use of prophylaxis and survival of those with PCP has improved with use of adjunctive corticosteroid therapy. Less toxic drug therapies are still needed as well as better noninvasive diagnostic techniques.

The importance of comorbidity in HIV-infected patients over 55: a retrospective case-control study

PURPOSE

To study the impact of comorbidity on the course of HIV disease in older patients as compared to a matched cohort of younger patients.

METHODS

In a retrospective case-control study, we compared 43 HIV-infected patients > 55 years old to a randomly selected cohort of 86 patients < 45 years old, matched by date of HIV diagnosis. We collected data on non-HIV-related morbidity (as assessed by the Charlson comorbidity index), initiator of HIV testing, HIV stage at time of HIV diagnosis (TOHD), AIDS defining diagnoses, AIDS-related illnesses (ARI), observed AIDS-free interval, survival, and frequency of HIV-related and unrelated hospitalizations.

RESULTS

The older cohort was more likely to have had HIV testing initiated by a health care provider (36 of 36 versus 50 of 66, P = 0.003), and to have acquired HIV from a transfusion (5 of 43 versus 0 of 86, P = 0.001), had lower CD4 cell counts at TOHD (205 versus 429, P = 0.02), a shorter observed AIDS-free interval (24.0 versus 52.8 months, P = 0.0002) and a shorter survival (28.2 versus 58.9 months, P = 0.0002). The older cohort had more HIV-related (13.4 versus 9.2 per 100 patient-months, P = 0.024) and non-HIV-related hospitalizations (12.9 versus 8.1 per 100 patient-months, P = 0.0001). The comorbidity index was significantly higher in the older cohort (0.907 versus 0.198, P = 0.0001) and was a strong predictor of mortality, independent of age group (risk ratio = 1.38 per comorbidity point, P = 0.0003).

CONCLUSIONS

Older HIV-infected patients presented with more advanced disease, which may have been due to lack of HIV awareness in this population. Older patients had a shorter observed AIDS-free interval and shorter survival. In addition, they had more HIV- and non-HIV-related comorbidity. The more rapid course and decreased survival in the elderly may be related to the increase in comorbidity.

Gender and ethnic differences in survival in a cohort of HIV positive clients

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to examine gender and ethnic differences in survival of persons receiving treatment for HIV infection to determine if differences existed, and if they did, to assess the possibility of explaining these differences by examining other factors, such as age, disease severity when beginning treatment, alcohol, illicit drugs, tobacco, educational level, living arrangements, antiretroviral treatment, PCP prophylaxis, sexually transmitted diseases, mode of transmission and opportunistic infections.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study of all clients receiving treatment at an HIV only clinic from its opening in early 1988 until the end of May 1993. Statistical methods used to examine the data included incidence density ratios, Kaplan-Meier survival curves, Breslow (generalized Wilcoxon) tests of equality of survival curves and Cox proportional hazards models both with and without time dependent covariates.

RESULTS

In the cohort (37% African American, 7% Hispanic American and 25% female), 220 deaths occurred during 1223 person years of follow-up. Compared to European American males, the following incidence density ratios were observed: European American females: 0.50, Hispanic American females: 0.70, Hispanic American males: 0.96, African American females: 1.28 and African American males: 2.38. The differences were noted above for gender/ethnicity groups were significant at the p < 0.0001 level. After adjusting for disease stage (as measured by laboratory testing of CD4 positive T-lymphocytes), educational level, and age, no differences in survival by gender or ethnicity remained. Disease stage and educational level had the greatest prognostic significance.

CONCLUSIONS

European Americans entered treatment at a much earlier disease stage (as measured by CD4 positive T-lymphocyte counts) and had higher educational levels (a surrogate for socioeconomic status) than African Americans. These factors may explain the longer survival in European Americans as compared to African Americans in this cohort.

Race, sex, drug use, and progression of human immunodeficiency virus disease

BACKGROUND

The rates of progression of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and survival have been reported to differ among sociodemographic groups. It is unclear whether these differences reflect biologic differences or differences in access to medical care.

METHODS

We measured disease progression and survival in a cohort of 1372 patients seropositive for HIV who were treated at a single urban center (median follow-up, 1.6 years). We calculated the rates of survival for the entire cohort and the rates of progression to the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) or death among the 740 patients who presented without AIDS. We used Cox proportional-hazards analysis to examine factors associated with progression to AIDS and death.

RESULTS

Progression to AIDS or death was associated with a CD4 cell count of 201 to 350 per cubic millimeter (relative risk, 2.0; P < 0.001), the presence of symptoms at base line (relative risk, 2.0; P < 0.001), prior antiretroviral therapy (relative risk, 1.7; P = 0.003), and older age (relative risk per year of age, 1.02; P = 0.03). However, there was no relation between disease progression and sex, race, injection-drug use, income, level of education, or insurance status. In the entire cohort, a lower CD4 cell count, a diagnosis of AIDS, older age, and the receipt of antiretroviral therapy before enrollment were associated with an increased risk of death, whereas the use of prophylaxis against pneumocystis pneumonia, zidovudine use after enrollment, and having a job at base line were associated with lower risks of death. There was no significant difference in survival between men and women, blacks and whites, injection-drug users and those who did not use drugs, or patients whose median annual incomes were $5,000 or less and those whose incomes were more than $5,000.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with HIV infection who received medical care from a single urban center, there were no differences in disease progression or survival associated with sex, race, injection-drug use, or socioeconomic status. Differences found in other studies may reflect differences in the use of medical care.

HIV positive patients first presenting with an AIDS defining illness: characteristics and survival

OBJECTIVES

To study the presentation and survival of patients who present with their first diagnosis of being HIV positive at the same time as their AIDS defining illness.

DESIGN

Retrospective study of patients presenting with AIDS between 1991 and 1993.

SETTING

Department of genitourinary medicine, St Mary's Hospital, London.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

AIDS defining illness at presentation and survival after diagnosis of AIDS.

RESULTS

Between January 1991 and December 1993, 97 out of 436 patients (22%) presented with their first AIDS defining illness coincident with their first positive result of an HIV test (group B). The remaining 339 patients (78%) had tested positive for HIV-1 infection within the previous eight years and had consequently been followed up in clinics before developing their first AIDS defining illness (group A). The two groups of patients did not differ in age and sex distribution, risk factors for HIV-1 infection, nationality, country of origin, or haematological variables determined at the time of the AIDS defining illness. However, the defining illnesses differed between the two groups. Illnesses associated with severe immunodeficiency (the wasting syndrome, cryptosporidiosis, and cytomegalovirus infection) were seen almost exclusively in group A whereas extrapulmonary tuberculosis and Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia were more common in group B. The survival of patients in group B after the onset of AIDS was significantly longer than that of patients in group A as determined by Kaplan-Meier log rank analysis (P = 0.0026).

CONCLUSIONS

Subjects who are HIV positive and present late are a challenge to the control of the spread of HIV infection because they progress from asymptomatic HIV infection to AIDS without receiving health care. The finding that presentation with an AIDS defining illness coincident with a positive result in an HIV test did not have a detrimental effect on survival gives insights into the effects of medical intervention on disease progression after a diagnosis of AIDS.

Staging system for clinical AIDS patients. Royal Free/Chelsea and Westminster Hospitals Collaborative Group

Although there are wide differences in prognosis between patients with AIDS they are often thought of as a single homogeneous group. We think a simple staging system that accounts for important prognostic factors including type and number of AIDS diseases and the CD4 lymphocyte count is required. We followed 363 AIDS patients at the Royal Free Hospital and reported the occurrence of 680 AIDS-defining diseases (ADDs). We measured CD4 counts at approximately monthly intervals. Severity of AIDS diseases was defined a priori on the basis of survival in the AIDS in Europe study of 6578 AIDS patients: mild-oesophageal candidiasis, Kaposis sarcoma (cutaneous), Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia, extrapulmonary tuberculosis; severe-all other ADDs except lymphoma; very severe-lymphoma. The risk of death increased by 15% (p = 0.08) for each mild condition experienced, by 89% (p < 0.0001) for each new severe condition and by 535% (p < 0.0001) when a lymphoma developed. Estimates from the Cox model were used to derive a score reflecting the risk of death. Patient experience was divided into three categories. Patients in AIDS Grade I had an average death rate of one per 10.1 years, compared with one per 2.8 years in AIDS Grade II and one per 1.1 years in AIDS Grade III. Similar rates were seen in an independent validation study on 1230 AIDS patients at different hospital. Our grading system should be useful for patient management, clinical trial design, surveillance, and resource management.

The impact of age on the quality of life in persons with HIV infection

The authors administered the Medical Outcomes Study (MOS 20) Short Form Health Survey to 369 persons with HIV disease. The MOS survey measures six domains of health: physical function, role function, social function, mental health, health perception, and pain. Additional data included sociodemographics, HIV risk group, time since HIV diagnosis, symptoms (dyspnea, diarrhea, fever, chills, sweats, weight loss, weakness, numbness, memory trouble, seizures), and CD4 lymphocyte count within 3 months of the MOS survey. Bivariate analyses revealed worse MOS scores associated with older age in five health domains: physical function (p less than .01), health perception (p <.10), role function (n.s.), social function (n.s.), and mental health (n.s.). Older subjects reported less pain. When controlling for CD4 count and for sociodemographic and clinical variables, older age was significantly (p less than .05) associated with worse MOS scores in physical function, social function, and health perception, nonsignificantly associated with worse MOS scores in role function and mental health, and nonsignificantly associated with less reporting of pain.

Experience of HIV disease in a London District General Hospital

The aim of this paper is to describe and discuss the experience of HIV disease in Central Middlesex Hospital, London up to June 1993. A retrospective study of the total number of HIV-positive patients cared for was performed. In addition, prospectively collected data as part of local epidemiological surveillance from January 1987 to June 1993 on all HIV test requests was analysed. Between January 1987 and June 1993 3695 individuals were tested for HIV-1 antibody at Central Middlesex Hospital. Of these, 101 HIV-1 seropositive individuals were identified and have attended this District General Hospital. Seven HIV-1 seropositive individuals were identified from before December 1986. Sixty (56%) had acquired their infection heterosexually. Thirty-eight (35%) originated from the UK and 47 (44%) from sub-Saharan Africa; the remaining 23 (21%) originated from the rest of Europe, South America and the Caribbean. Thirty-four (31%) of the patient group developed AIDS during follow-up at the hospital and in 26 individuals AIDs developed within 2 months of their first positive HIV result. The mean survival of 20 patients after AIDS-defining diagnoses was 7 months 18 days. This unselected group of HIV-1 seropositive patients present late in the course of their HIV disease and survival following AIDS is poor.

Role of scatter factor and the c-met protooncogene in the pathogenesis of AIDS-associated Kaposi's sarcoma

Kaposi's sarcoma is a highly lethal tumor in patients with sexually acquired AIDS. A number of etiologic agents have been implicated in the development of this disease in this patient population and there is ample evidence that aberrant production of and responsiveness to KS tumor and host cell-derived cytokines plays a central role in the pathogenesis of AIDS-KS. In this review we propose that aberrant expression SF and c-met is central to the pathogenesis of KS. KS is a serious and life-threatening consequence for many patients with AIDS. Unfortunately, current therapeutic strategies for the treatment of this complex neoplasm have met with only limited success. In view of the poor survival rates for AIDS-KS patients which continue to decline at an alarming rate, it is eminently clear that a better understanding of the etiology and pathogenesis of this form of KS is needed if novel therapeutic strategies designed to successfully combat this disease are to be developed. If our hypothesis is validated, one could envision several approaches whereby the modulation of SF/c-met function or production might lead to a reduction in the incidence and severity of KS lesions. Antibody therapy directed against either SF-producing tumor cells or against the c-met receptor might decrease the incidence of new tumors by limiting their clonal expansion and lead to regression of established tumors by blocking SF-mediated tumor cell proliferation and neovascularization. It might also be possible to suppress production of SF or accessory cytokines involved in the induction SF production and thus short circuit SF/c-met growth-promoting effects. We have outlined a novel hypothesis for understanding the mechanism underlying the development of AIDS-associated KS. This is most certainly not the whole story, however. Clearly, other cytokines and alterations in natural host defenses and the immune system contribute significantly to the development of AIDS-associated KS. We believe, however, that recognition of SF/c-met as a participant in this disease is necessary if we are to more fully understand the pathogenesis of AIDS-associated KS.

Concomitant HIV and mycobacterial infection in Ireland, 1987-92

A six-year retrospective review of concomitant HIV and mycobacterial infection in the Republic of Ireland is presented. A total of 42 culture proven mycobacterial infections were seen in 40 different HIV-infected patients. There were 24 infections with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) and 18 infections with mycobacteria other than tuberculosis (MOTT), a significantly higher rate of MOTT infections in Ireland compared to a study from 1962-1981. The detection rate for all mycobacterial infections had an annual upward trend with a 4-fold increase between 1987 and 1992. In homosexuals, MOTT infections occurred more frequently than M.tb, while the reverse was true for IVDUs. Twenty per cent of the infections were seen in patients recently incarcerated. Relapse of tuberculosis occurred in 42.9% (3/7) of non-compliant patients, 2 of whom developed rifampin-resistant strains of M.tb. No patient compliant to their regimen had a relapse in disease. The overall survival of patients after diagnosis of M.tb was significantly better than those with MOTT infections, with respective one-year survival rate of 79% and 36% (log rank test, P = 0.006).

Severity index scores correlate with survival of AIDS patients

A major concern of hospices treating AIDS patients is survival prognosis. Patients are eligible for government hospice benefits only if they are in the last six months of life, but for AIDS patients who present at different disease stages, it is often difficult to predict survival. We have tested an index of AIDS severity developed by Alemi et al. (1991, Interfaces, 21(3), 105) for its ability to predict survival in hospice-AIDS patients. Using retrospective analysis of medical records, a severity index (SI) score was determined for 26 AIDS patients who were admitted at different disease stages to a South Florida hospice. The length of stay for each patient was also recorded. The patients fell clearly into two groups, those with stays of six months or less and those with stays of more than six months. The mean SI scores of the two groups were .9188 and .7845, respectively. These scores were significantly different at the p = .005 level. In this preliminary study, the severity score correlated well with survival prognosis. Based on these results, it appears that the severity index may have great utility in predicting survival for AIDS patients seeking hospice admission.

Racial differences in the use of drug therapy for HIV disease in an urban community

BACKGROUND

Guidelines for drug therapy in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease are based primarily on the stage of the disease. To determine whether sociodemographic characteristics of patients influence drug therapy in practice, we analyzed the use of antiretroviral therapy and prophylactic therapy for Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) in an urban population infected with HIV.

METHODS

All patients presenting for the first time to our HIV clinic from March 1990 through December 1992 were enrolled. Data on sociodemographic and clinical variables and on drug use were collected at the time of presentation and after six months. We asked whether patients with CD4+ cell counts of 500 or less per cubic millimeter were receiving antiretroviral therapy at the time of presentation, and whether patients with CD4+ cell counts of 200 or less per cubic millimeter were receiving PCP prophylaxis.

RESULTS

Among the 838 patients enrolled, 656 (79 percent) were blacks, 167 (20 percent) were non-Hispanic whites, and 15 (2 percent) were Asian or Hispanic descent or were not racially classified. There were no racial differences in the stage of HIV disease at the time of presentation. However, there were racial disparities in the receipt of antiretroviral therapy: 63 percent of eligible whites but only 48 percent of eligible blacks received such therapy (P = 0.003). PCP prophylaxis was received by 82 percent of eligible whites but only 58 percent of eligible blacks (P < 0.001). There were no significant differences in the receipt of drug therapy with respect to age, sex, mode of HIV transmission, type of insurance, income, education, or place of residence. In a logistic-regression analysis, race was the feature most strongly associated with the receipt of drug therapy. When blacks were compared with whites, the adjusted relative odds were 0.59 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.38 to 0.93) for the receipt of an antiretroviral agent and 0.27 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.13 to 0.56) for the receipt of PCP prophylaxis.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients infected with HIV, blacks were significantly less likely than whites to have received antiretroviral therapy or PCP prophylaxis when they were first referred to an HIV clinic. This disparity suggests a need for culturally specific interventions to ensure uniform access to care, including drug therapy, and uniform standards of care.

Human studies on alcohol and susceptibility to HIV infection

Here we review existing evidence that alcohol intake may influence the susceptibility to human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection and the effect that alcohol may have on accelerating the onset of AIDS after the initial infection. Possible immunological and psychosocial mechanisms to explain the increased incidence of HIV-1 infection in alcoholism are discussed.

Suicidality in AIDS long-term survivors: what is the evidence?

This study was designed to investigate suicidal ideation and attempts, thoughts about living and dying, and the maintenance, diminution and loss of hope in a sample of long-term AIDS survivors. The study sample consisted of 53 gay men enrolled as clients at Gay Mens Health Crisis in New York City who had had an AIDS-defining opportunistic infection at least 3 years prior to study entry. Despite the experience of protracted biological stress associated with life-threatening illness and the psychological stress of living with AIDS, we found low rates of current syndromal mood disorders (6%) or psychiatric distress. While thoughts about death and wishes to die were reported by a significant portion of men, they were context-specific, occurring almost exclusively during serious illness, often accompanied by severe pain or at times of bereavement. Only two men had made a suicide attempt after being diagnosed with AIDS and both had a history of prior (pre-AIDS) suicide attempts. While anger was a prominent affect, hopelessness was not. Overall, we found a high level of positive psychological health independent of HIV illness stage or degree of illness-induced physical limitation.

Outcome of HIV infected patients on continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis

A retrospective analysis of 39 HIV infected patients with ESRD cared for in New Haven from 1987 to June 1992 was performed. All patients had evidence for HIV infection at the start of CAPD therapy. Cumulative technique survival at one and two years was 43% and 27%, respectively. Only eight patients transferred to center dialysis. One and two year patient survival on CAPD was 58% and 54%, respectively. Mortality was higher in patients with advanced infection than in those with asymptomatic HIV infection. Hospitalization rates were also higher in patients with advanced infection. HIV infected patients had higher rates of peritonitis (3.9 episodes/outpatient CAPD year) compared to non-HIV infected patients (1.5 episodes/CAPD year), especially for pseudomonal and fungal infections. Active injection drug use and use of the "straight set" system were associated with increased rates of peritonitis. CAPD deserves consideration as a therapy for HIV infected patients with ESRD.

Survival of elderly patients with transfusion-related acquired immunodeficiency syndrome

OBJECTIVE

To determine the influences of age and risk group on the survival of AIDS patients. We concentrated on transfusion because it is the commonest risk factor for AIDS in patients over 70 years of age.

DESIGN

Survival curve regression analysis.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients aged 13 years and over with AIDS acquired through transfusion, and patients 65 years or older with AIDS as a result of intravenous drug use (IVDU). Data were obtained from the New York City Department of Health.

MAIN OUTCOME

The patients were divided into four groups, ages 13-40 years, 41-64 years, and 65 years and over with AIDS as a result of transfusion, and 65 years and older with AIDS as a result of IVDU. The survivals of the three transfusion-related AIDS groups were compared, as were the 65 years-and-over groups with AIDS as a result of transfusion or IVDU. AIDS-defining diagnoses between those over and under 65 years with AIDS as a result of transfusion were also compared.

RESULTS

The median survival for the three transfusion-related AIDS groups were 273 days, 58 days, and 60 days, respectively. There was a significant association between shorter survival and increasing age. This was largely due to the longer survival of the patients aged 13-40 years. There was no difference in AIDS-defining diagnosis between those over and under 65 years with transfusion-related AIDS. The survival curves of the elderly with AIDS as a result of transfusion or IVDU were not different.

CONCLUSION

Age over 40 years is an independent risk factor for poor survival among transfusion-related AIDS patients. Among the elderly, patients with transfusion-related AIDS have similar survivals to patients with IVDU-related AIDS.

Kaposi's sarcoma. Epidemiology, pathogenesis, histology, clinical spectrum, staging criteria and therapy

The acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic has had a profound impact on our understanding of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS). Epidemiologic features suggest a sexually transmitted cofactor in the pathogenesis of AIDS-associated KS (AIDS-KS), and several putative agents have received intense scrutiny. Cell culture studies suggest that the angiogenesis of AIDS-KS is stimulated by both human immunodeficiency virus proteins and growth factors that may be involved in the development and progression of AIDS-KS, thereby providing a rationale for new therapeutic interventions. The dermatologist is uniquely qualified to provide care for the majority of patients with KS, as many patients have cutaneous lesions amendable to local therapy (cryotherapy, intralesional therapy, simple excision). Patients requiring more aggressive local therapy (radiation therapy) or systemic therapies (interferon, chemotherapy) can be easily recognized. Standardized staging criteria provide assistance for determining appropriate local or systemic therapy and for evaluating and comparing responses to new therapies. This article reviews the epidemiology, pathogenesis, histologic features, clinical spectrum, staging criteria, and treatment of KS.

Epidemiology and infectious complications of human immunodeficiency virus antibody positive patients

From July 1, 1991 to March 31, 1992, 156 patients (pts) with positive antibody titers to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) were seen in our clinic. A retrospective review of the epidemiology and infectious complications of these patients is presented. There were 129 males and 27 females (4.8:1, ratio). Only 10/156 (12.8%) were non-whites (13 blacks and 7 hispanics). The majority, 126 (80.7%), were 25 to 44 years old. The most common risk factor was homosexuality or bisexuality 100 (64.1%), followed by heterosexual acquisition 25 (16%), intravenous drug abuse 23 (13.7%), unknown 6 (3.8%) and transfusion-related 3 (1.9%). Sixty-five pts had no infections. In the remaining 91 pts, the infections noted were: candidiasis (54 pts); Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (25 pts); Herpes simplex (13 pts); cytomegalovirus (CMV) retinitis (11 pts) and CMV esophagitis (1 pt), central nervous system toxoplasmosis (8); Herpes zoster (6 pts); cryptococcal meningitis (5 pts); Mycobacterium avium complex bacteremia (4 pts); Molluscum contagiosum, hepatitis-B, staphylococcal infection, perirectal abscess and oral hairy leukoplakia (2 pts each); syphilis, cryptosporidiosis, nocardiosis, histoplasmosis and laryngeal papillomatosis (1 pt each). Infections were multiple in 57/91 (62%) pts and tend to occur more often when the helper cells are < 200 47/57 (82%) pts. Appropriate antimicrobials for prophylaxis and maintenance therapy appeared to decrease the occurrence or relapse of infections such as pneumocystosis, candidiasis, cryptococcosis, tuberculosis and toxoplasmosis.

Incidence and Natural History ofMycobacterium avium-Complex Infections in Patients with Advanced Human Immunodeficiency Virus Disease Treated with Zidovudine

To determine the incidence and natural history of Mycobacterium avium-complex infections in persons with advanced human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, we studied a multicenter cohort of 1,020 persons with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) or the AIDS-related complex (ARC) and CD4 cell count < 0.250 x 10(9)/L initially treated with zidovudine between April 1987 and April 1988. M. avium-complex infections developed in 123 (12%) patients during follow-up, with a 2-yr actuarial risk of 19%. Patients with an initial diagnosis of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia were more likely to develop M. avium-complex infections than patients with an initial diagnosis of another opportunistic disease or of ARC (p = 0.002). Individuals developing M. avium-complex infections had lower baseline CD4 cell counts, hematocrits, lymphocyte counts, and total white blood cell counts than those who did not develop M. avium-complex infection. During follow-up, individuals who developed M. avium-complex infections were more likely to have severe anemia, to experience zidovudine dose reductions, and to die than were patients without M. avium-complex (p < 0.001). By proportional hazards analysis, a baseline CD4 cell count < 0.100 x 10(9)/L, development of severe anemia, P. carinii pneumonia during follow-up, and zidovudine dose interruption were significantly associated with subsequently developing M. avium-complex infection. A proportional hazards analysis of survival showed that M. avium-complex infection, severe anemia, zidovudine dose interruption, occurrence of an opportunistic infection, CD4 cell count < 0.100 x 10(9)/L, baseline AIDS diagnosis, and transfusion independently predicted an increased risk of death.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Long-term follow-up of tuberculoma of the brain in an AIDS patient

Human immunodeficiency virus infection and extrapulmonary TB are defined as AIDS. The clinical manifestations of the TB are related to the interplay of the organism and the host's immune system. A seven-year follow-up of a woman successfully treated for biopsy- and culture-documented tuberculous brain abscess is described. Antibodies to HIV have been positive on repeated testing, yet CD4 counts remain over 500. Aggressive diagnostic and therapeutic maneuvers for all forms of TB in AIDS are warranted since long-term prognosis may be good.

The risks of blood transfusion: the relative influence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome and non-A, non-B hepatitis

PURPOSE

The acquired immunodeficiency syndrome epidemic has greatly increased concern about the risk of blood transfusion. Many transfusions are now autologous, and when these are not available, both physicians and patients are more likely to question the advisability of transfusion. We evaluate the risk of preoperative blood transfusion and the contribution of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection to that risk.

METHODS

We used decision analysis to characterize the risk associated with HIV infection in days of life lost. The contributions to risk of acute transfusion reaction, hepatitis B, and non-A, non-B hepatitis are also estimated. Sensitivity analyses show the implications for transfusion risk of recent information about HIV infection in the blood supply and a new test for hepatitis C.

RESULTS

The analysis shows that the contribution of HIV infection to the risk of death from transfusion, expressed in days of life expectancy lost, has become extremely small over the last several years. Currently, HIV infection accounts for less than 1% of the risk of death, while non-A, non-B hepatitis accounts for 97% to 98%. Further reductions in the risk of HIV infection, even to zero, will make relatively little difference in the safety of transfusion. The analysis also shows that the remaining risk from transfusion should decrease sharply, by more than two thirds, with the adoption of the test for hepatitis C.

CONCLUSIONS

Efforts to improve the safety of blood should focus on reducing the risk of non-A, non-B hepatitis. The remaining risk of HIV infection is very small.

Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy in persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus, San Francisco, 1981-1989

Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), a rare neurological disease, has been sporadically reported in persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the causative agent of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). From January 1981 through February 1989, in San Francisco, we identified 94 HIV-infected persons with PML, of whom 48 (51%) were pathologically confirmed (as required for AIDS case reporting). These 48 patients were significantly older when diagnosed with AIDS (20% older than 50 years) than patients with AIDS without PML. The remaining 46 (49%) patients, diagnosed clinically and by neuroimaging, did not differ significantly from definitive patients in demographic or survival characteristics after PML diagnosis. We detected antibodies to JC virus, the causative agent of PML, in 9 of 14 (64%) AIDS-related patients with PML, and in 9 of 14 (64%) matched control subjects, suggesting that determination of JC virus antibody status before AIDS diagnosis does not reliably indicate which patients will contract PML. Our study shows that the proportion of patients with AIDS who contracted PML remained stable between 1981 and 1988, but increased in the first 2 months of 1989. Our findings further indicate that PML in HIV-infected patients may be underestimated by as much as 50%.

Stochastic methods for short term projections of symptomatic HIV disease

We designed and implemented stochastic methods for short term projections of HIV disease at the local level, that accommodate various states or stages of the disease. We gave particular attention to projection of the number of patients with HIV disease who need care, when durations of stay in these various states depend on current methods for treating opportunistic infections. We consider two types of data as input to these projections. One concerns seroprevalence surveys conducted over time and from which we can obtain time series estimates of the numbers of HIV-infected individuals. The other is a reported time series of AIDS cases adjusted for delays in reporting. Several projections, with data from the City of Philadelphia, illustrate this method. In addition, we consider a Monte Carlo method for computing confidence bounds on a projection.

Zidovudine and the natural history of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome

BACKGROUND AND METHODS

We sought to describe the trends in survival from 1983 to 1989 among persons with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and to examine the relative effects on the natural history of AIDS of zidovudine use and demographic and clinical characteristics. This longitudinal, observational, population-based study used data from the Maryland Human Immunodeficiency Virus Information System, a data base that links information from the Maryland AIDS Registry with data on public and private health care claims, vital statistics, and hospital, long-term care, and ambulatory care records.

RESULTS

The median survival after diagnosis among persons with AIDS (n = 1028) was 140 days longer for those given their diagnoses between 1987 and 1989 than for those given their diagnoses between 1983 and 1985 (450 vs 310 days). Among the 714 persons in whom AIDS was diagnosed after April 1987 (when zidovudine became available), two-year survival was greater among men than women (P less than 0.03), among persons less than 45 years old than among older persons (P less than 0.001), among non-Hispanic whites than among minorities (P less than 0.001), and among persons whose category of human immunodeficiency virus transmission was homosexual contact than among those with heterosexual, transfusion-related, or less common modes of transmission (P less than 0.02). In all the analyses the groups with the longer survival were more likely to have received zidovudine. The median survival among those who received zidovudine was 770 days, as compared with 190 days among those who never received the drug (P less than 0.001). By proportional-hazards analysis, zidovudine therapy was the factor most strongly associated with improved survival.

CONCLUSIONS

For Maryland residents with AIDS there has been an improvement in survival since 1987. Zidovudine therapy and perhaps other aspects of care associated with it have contributed substantially to the improved survival.

Detection of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 clinical isolates with reduced sensitivity to zidovudine and dideoxyinosine by RNA.RNA hybridization

A quantitative rapid assay to detect resistant clinical human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) strains remains an important medical goal. A system incorporating a quantitative RNA.RNA hybridization assay that measures the amount of intracellular HIV-1-specific RNA has been employed to detect the level of inhibition by nucleoside analogues in sensitive and resistant HIV-1 strains. The RNA.RNA hybridization assay readily distinguished previously published zidovudine (ZDV; 3'-azido-3'-deoxythymidine)-resistant isolates from ZDV-sensitive isolates of HIV-1. The 50% inhibitory concentration (IC50) of ZDV for HTLV-IIIB and sensitive clinical HIV-1 isolates is between 0.01 and 0.04 microM. HIV-1 strains from three patients on long-term ZDV therapy displayed a greater than 20-fold increase in the ZDV IC50 compared to sensitive strains. The drug sensitivity system was confirmed by showing that mutations in the HIV reverse transcriptase gene from a ZDV-resistant isolate resulted in four amino acid changes (Leu-125----Trp, Ile-142----Val, Thr-215----Tyr, and Pro-294----Thr) including one change (Thr-215----Tyr) that has been previously reported to be associated with resistance. One clinical HIV strain with high-level ZDV resistance displayed a 5-fold increase in 2',3'-dideoxyinosine IC50 compared to that of HTLV-IIIB. A drug sensitivity assay employing RNA.RNA hybridization may be useful for extensive screening of HIV isolates from patients enrolled in clinical trials and permit the correlation of in vitro resistance with clinical outcome.

A University of California State-supported AIDS research award program--a unique state and university partnership in AIDS research

This article describes the State-supported University of California AIDS research award program and its major accomplishments. It shows how a partnership between a University and a State resulted in the formation of a successful, efficient, and cost-effective AIDS research award program. This program provides funds for rapid testing of investigator-initiated meritorious research ideas, new drugs, and treatment modalities. Funds were also utilized to establish three AIDS Clinical Research Centers, which evolved into regional consortia that coordinate trials of new drugs and other modalities. This program succeeded in involving investigators whose efforts have led to excellent medical care, advanced technologies, and new drugs for treating AIDS and AIDS-related diseases. The University remains committed to continuing support of all areas of AIDS research, emphasizing drug and vaccine development, pediatric AIDS, and AIDS prevention studies in groups at high risk for HIV infection.

Surrogate markers for survival in patients with AIDS and AIDS related complex treated with zidovudine

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether early effects of zidovudine treatment on CD4+ lymphocyte count and concentrations of beta 2 microglobulin, neopterin, or HIV p24 antigen or antibody are correlated with survival in patients with AIDS or AIDS related complex.

DESIGN

Retrospective study of changes in laboratory markers and survival.

SETTING

Multicentre trial at university hospital clinics.

SUBJECTS

90 Patients with AIDS or AIDS related complex.

INTERVENTION

Patients started zidovudine 200 mg orally every four hours. Fifty six of the patients died a median 17 months after starting zidovudine; the remaining 34 patients were followed up for a median 25.5 months.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Changes in CD4+ lymphocyte count and serum concentrations of p24 antigen and antibody, beta 2 microglobulin, and neopterin; survival of the patient.

RESULTS

The pretreatment characteristics that independently predicted poor survival were determined using a multivariate proportional hazards model: a diagnosis of AIDS (v AIDS related complex), age over 45 years, and the logarithm of serum neopterin concentration. When these baseline characteristics were controlled for the logarithm of CD4+ lymphocyte count at weeks 8-12 of treatment (p = 0.007) and an increase in serum beta 2 microglobulin concentration at weeks 8-12 (p = 0.05) also independently correlated with survival. In the 38 patients with a better pretreatment prognosis, 24 month survival estimated by the product-limit method was 88% for those with a good response on both surrogate markers during early treatment compared with only 50% for those with a poor response on either marker. In the 38 with a worse pretreatment prognosis, 24 month survival was estimated to be 49% for those with a good response on both surrogate markers compared with only 18% for those with a poor response on either.

CONCLUSION

These data suggest that CD4+ lymphocyte count at 8-12 weeks and, perhaps, change in serum beta 2 microglobulin concentration could be surrogate end points for clinical outcome in trials of antiretroviral drugs for patients with HIV disease.

Development of AIDS in a cohort of HIV-seropositive homosexual men in Australia

The Sydney AIDS Prospective Study is a cohort study of 1057 homosexual men enrolled between February 1984 and January 1985. By June 30, 1989, 111 (26.8%) of the 414 men who were seropositive for antibodies to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) at enrollment had developed the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). On univariate analysis the following baseline factors were significantly associated with subsequent development of AIDS: splenomegaly; a lymphocyte count less than 1500 x 10(6)/L; a percentage of CD4+ cells less than 20% of the total lymphocyte count; an absolute number of CD4+ cells less than 200 x 10(6)/L; and a CD4+: CD8+ ratio less than 1.00. In a proportional hazards model the following factors retained significance: a lymphocyte count less than 1500 x 10(6)/L; an absolute number of CD4+ cells less than 200 x 10(6)/L; and a CD4+: CD8+ ratio less than 1.00. A CD4+ cell count less than 200 x 10(6)/L carried the greatest relative risk (3.99) for the development of AIDS. This study has confirmed that the appreciable rates of progression to AIDS demonstrated in overseas cohorts of HIV-infected persons also apply in the Australian context. A number of laboratory variables was found to be predictive for the subsequent development of AIDS. As we were not able to determine accurately whether subjects were receiving antiretroviral treatment or prophylaxis for opportunistic infections the observed rates in this study should be seen as minimum estimates. These findings have important implications for HIV-infected persons and for public health planning, and emphasise the need for regular clinical monitoring and T-cell subset enumeration in HIV-infected persons.

Survival of AIDS patients in Norway

The survival function of the 100 first AIDS patients in Norway is presented and analyzed with respect to four factors obtained at the time of diagnosis; a) year of diagnosis b) initial AIDS related disease c) knowledge of HIV seropositivity prior to onset of AIDS and d) age at time of diagnosis. The median survival was 9.3 months. Among the known seropositive AIDS patients there were almost twice as many with Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia as initial AIDS related disease, as among the not known seropositives (relative risk 1.8). With Cox regression analysis we found that known seropositivity and age are factors that appear to influence survival, whereas year of diagnosis and initial AIDS related disease apparently do not. The mechanism whereby prior knowledge of HIV seropositivity leads to apparent increase in survival may be due to better follow-up and thereby an earlier date of diagnosis.