Irreversible effects of ivermectin on adult parasites in onchocerciasis patients in the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa

Elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis (river blindness) with long-term ivermectin mass drug administration with or without vector control in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

WHO has proposed elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis (river blindness) by 2030. More than 99% of cases of onchocerciasis are in sub-Saharan Africa. Vector control and mass drug administration of ivermectin have been the main interventions for many years, with varying success. We aimed to identify factors associated with elimination of onchocerciasis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

For this systematic review and meta-analysis we searched for published articles reporting epidemiological or entomological assessments of onchocerciasis transmission status in sub-Saharan Africa, with or without vector control. We searched MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, African Index Medicus, and Google Scholar databases for all articles published from database inception to Aug 19, 2023, without language restrictions. The search terms used were "onchocerciasis" AND "ivermectin" AND "mass drug administration". The three inclusion criteria were (1) focus or foci located in Africa, (2) reporting of elimination of transmission or at least 10 years of ivermectin mass drug administration in the focus or foci, and (3) inclusion of at least one of the following assessments: microfilarial prevalence, nodule prevalence, Ov16 antibody seroprevalence, and blackfly infectivity prevalence. Epidemiological modelling studies and reviews were excluded. Four reviewers (NM, AJ, AM, and TNK) extracted data in duplicate from the full-text articles using a data extraction tool developed in Excel with columns recording the data of interest to be extracted, and a column where important comments for each study could be highlighted. We did not request any individual-level data from authors. Foci were classified as achieving elimination of transmission, being close to elimination of transmission, or with ongoing transmission. We used mixed-effects meta-regression models to identify factors associated with transmission status. This study is registered in PROSPERO, CRD42022338986.

FINDINGS

Of 1525 articles screened after the removal of duplicates, 75 provided 282 records from 238 distinct foci in 19 (70%) of the 27 onchocerciasis-endemic countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Elimination of transmission was reported in 24 (9%) records, being close to elimination of transmission in 86 (30%) records, and ongoing transmission in 172 (61%) records. I2 was 83·3% (95% CI 79·7 to 86·3). Records reporting 10 or more years of continuous mass drug administration with 80% or more therapeutic coverage of the eligible population yielded significantly higher odds of achieving elimination of transmission (log-odds 8·5 [95% CI 3·5 to 13·5]) or elimination and being close to elimination of transmission (42·4 [18·7 to 66·1]) than those with no years achieving 80% coverage or more. Reporting 15-19 years of ivermectin mass drug administration (22·7 [17·2 to 28·2]) and biannual treatment (43·3 [27·2 to 59·3]) were positively associated with elimination and being close to elimination of transmission compared with less than 15 years and no biannual mass drug administration, respectively. Having had vector control without vector elimination (-42·8 [-59·1 to -26·5]) and baseline holoendemicity (-41·97 [-60·6 to -23·2]) were associated with increased risk of ongoing transmission compared with no vector control and hypoendemicity, respectively. Blackfly disappearance due to vector control or environmental change contributed to elimination of transmission.

INTERPRETATION

Mass drug administration duration, frequency, and coverage; baseline endemicity; and vector elimination or disappearance are important determinants of elimination of onchocerciasis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. Our findings underscore the importance of improving and sustaining high therapeutic coverage and increasing treatment frequency if countries are to achieve elimination of onchocerciasis transmission.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium, UK Medical Research Council, and Global Health EDCTP3 Joint Undertaking.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Swahili, French, Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

An Updated Economic Assessment of Moxidectin Treatment Strategies for Onchocerciasis Elimination

BACKGROUND

Concerns that annual mass administration of ivermectin, the predominant strategy for onchocerciasis control and elimination, may not lead to elimination of parasite transmission (EoT) in all endemic areas have increased interest in alternative treatment strategies. One such strategy is moxidectin. We performed an updated economic assessment of moxidectin- relative to ivermectin-based strategies.

METHODS

We investigated annual and biannual community-directed treatment with ivermectin (aCDTI, bCDTI) and moxidectin (aCDTM, bCDTM) with minimal or enhanced coverage (65% or 80% of total population taking the drug, respectively) in intervention-naive areas with 30%, 50%, or 70% microfilarial baseline prevalence (representative of hypo-, meso-, and hyperendemic areas). We compared programmatic delivery costs for the number of treatments achieving 90% probability of EoT (EoT90), calculated with the individual-based stochastic transmission model EPIONCHO-IBM. We used the costs for 40 years of program delivery when EoT90 was not reached earlier. The delivery costs do not include drug costs.

RESULTS

aCDTM and bCDTM achieved EoT90 with lower programmatic delivery costs than aCDTI with 1 exception: aCDTM with minimal coverage did not achieve EoT90 in hyperendemic areas within 40 years. With minimal coverage, bCDTI delivery costs as much or more than aCDTM and bCDTM. With enhanced coverage, programmatic delivery costs for aCDTM and bCDTM were lower than for aCDTI and bCDTI.

CONCLUSIONS

Moxidectin-based strategies could accelerate progress toward EoT and reduce programmatic delivery costs compared with ivermectin-based strategies. The costs of moxidectin to national programs are needed to quantify whether delivery cost reductions will translate into overall program cost reduction.

Non-adherence to ivermectin in onchocerciasis-endemic communities with persistent infection in the Bono Region of Ghana: a mixed-methods study

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization has proposed that onchocerciasis elimination (interruption) of transmission be verified in 12 (approximately a third) endemic countries by 2030. The strategy to reach this goal is based on ivermectin Mass Drug Administration (MDA) with high geographical and therapeutic coverage. In addition to coverage, high levels of treatment adherence are paramount. We investigated factors associated with ivermectin intake in an area of Ghana with persistent Onchocerca volvulus infection.

METHODS

In August 2021, a cross-sectional mixed-methods study was conducted in 13 onchocerciasis-endemic communities in the Bono Region of Ghana. Individuals aged ≥ 10 years were invited to participate in a questionnaire survey. A total of 48 focus group discussions and in-depth interviews with 10 community drug distributors and 13 community leaders were conducted.

RESULTS

A total of 510 people participated in the study [median age: 32, interquartile range 30 (20‒50) years]; 274 (53.7%) were females. Of the total, 320 (62.7%) declared that they adhered to each treatment round and 190 (37.3%) admitted they had not taken ivermectin during at least one MDA round, since becoming eligible for treatment. Of 483 participants with complete information, 139 (28.8%) did not take ivermectin during the last round (March 2021), and 24 (5.0%) had never taken ivermectin (systematic non-adherers). Reasons for not taking ivermectin included previous experience/fear of side-effects, being absent during MDA, pregnancy, the desire to drink alcohol, and drug distribution challenges. Being male, having good knowledge and perception of the disease, and not having secondary or higher level of formal education were significantly associated with higher odds of ivermectin intake.

CONCLUSIONS

A relatively high level of non-adherence to ivermectin treatment was documented. There is a need for targeted educational and behavioural change campaigns to reverse these trends and ensure a steady course toward meeting onchocerciasis elimination targets in Ghana.

Can mass drug administration of moxidectin accelerate onchocerciasis elimination in Africa?

Epidemiological and modelling studies suggest that elimination of Onchocerca volvulus transmission (EoT) throughout Africa may not be achievable with annual mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin alone, particularly in areas of high endemicity and vector density. Single-dose Phase II and III clinical trials demonstrated moxidectin's superiority over ivermectin for prolonged clearance of O. volvulus microfilariae. We used the stochastic, individual-based EPIONCHO-IBM model to compare the probabilities of reaching EoT between ivermectin and moxidectin MDA for a range of endemicity levels (30 to 70% baseline microfilarial prevalence), treatment frequencies (annual and biannual) and therapeutic coverage/adherence values (65 and 80% of total population, with, respectively, 5 and 1% of systematic non-adherence). EPIONCHO-IBM's projections indicate that biannual (six-monthly) moxidectin MDA can reduce by half the number of years necessary to achieve EoT in mesoendemic areas and might be the only strategy that can achieve EoT in hyperendemic areas. Data needed to improve modelling projections include (i) the effect of repeated annual and biannual moxidectin treatment; (ii) inter- and intra-individual variation in response to successive treatments with moxidectin or ivermectin; (iii) the effect of moxidectin and ivermectin treatment on L3 development into adult worms; and (iv) patterns of adherence to moxidectin and ivermectin MDA. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Assessing Onchocerca volvulus Intensity of Infection and Genetic Diversity Using Mitochondrial Genome Sequencing of Single Microfilariae Obtained before and after Ivermectin Treatment

Onchocerciasis is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination using ivermectin mass administration. Ivermectin kills the microfilariae and temporarily arrests microfilariae production by the macrofilariae. We genotyped 436 microfilariae from 10 people each in Ituri, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Maridi County, South Sudan, collected before and 4-5 months after ivermectin treatment. Population genetic analyses identified 52 and 103 mitochondrial DNA haplotypes among the microfilariae from DRC and South Sudan, respectively, with few haplotypes shared between people. The percentage of genotype-based correct assignment to person within DRC was ~88% and within South Sudan ~64%. Rarefaction and extrapolation analysis showed that the genetic diversity in DRC, and even more so in South Sudan, was captured incompletely. The results indicate that the per-person adult worm burden is likely higher in South Sudan than DRC. Analyses of haplotype data from a subsample (n = 4) did not discriminate genetically between pre- and post-treatment microfilariae, confirming that post-treatment microfilariae are not the result of new infections. With appropriate sampling, mitochondrial haplotype analysis could help monitor changes in the number of macrofilariae in a population as a result of treatment, identify cases of potential treatment failure, and detect new infections as an indicator of continuing transmission.

Pharmacokinetics of oral moxidectin in individuals with Onchocerca volvulus infection

Background

Onchocerciasis (“river blindness”), is a neglected tropical disease caused by the filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus and transmitted to humans through repeated bites by infective blackflies of the genus Simulium. Moxidectin was approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration in 2018 for the treatment of onchocerciasis in people at least 12 years of age. The pharmacokinetics of orally administered moxidectin in 18- to 60-year-old men and women infected with Onchocerca volvulus were investigated in a single-center, ivermectin-controlled, double-blind, randomized, single-ascending-dose, ascending severity of infection study in Ghana.

Methodology/Principal findings

Participants were randomized to either a single dose of 2, 4 or 8 mg moxidectin or ivermectin. Pharmacokinetic samples were collected prior to dosing and at intervals up to 12 months post-dose from 33 and 34 individuals treated with 2 and 4 mg moxidectin, respectively and up to 18 months post-dose from 31 individuals treated with 8 mg moxidectin. Moxidectin plasma concentrations were determined using high-performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection. Moxidectin plasma AUC_0-∞ (2 mg: 26.7–31.7 days*ng/mL, 4 mg: 39.1–60.0 days*ng/mL, 8 mg: 99.5–129.0 days*ng/mL) and C_max (2mg, 16.2 to17.3 ng/mL, 4 mg: 33.4 to 35.0 ng/mL, 8 mg: 55.7 to 74.4 ng/mL) were dose-proportional and independent of severity of infection. Maximum plasma concentrations were achieved 4 hours after drug administration. The mean terminal half-lives of moxidectin were 20.6, 17.7, and 23.3 days at the 2, 4 and 8 mg dose levels, respectively.

Conclusion/Significance

We found no relationship between severity of infection (mild, moderate or severe) and exposure parameters (AUC_0-∞ and C_max), T_1/2 and T_max for moxidectin. T_max, volume of distribution (V/F) and oral clearance (CL/F) are similar to those in healthy volunteers from Europe. From a pharmacokinetic perspective, moxidectin is an attractive long-acting therapeutic option for the treatment of human onchocerciasis.

The 2017 Global Burden of Disease Study estimated 20.9 million individuals with onchocerciasis, primarily in Africa. Onchocercal vision impairment/blindness and skin disease (e.g., skin pigment loss, debilitating itching) impact the social and economic life of infected individuals and their communities. This motivates onchocerciasis elimination efforts, today primarily through annual or biannual ivermectin treatment of affected communities. Despite progress towards elimination in many areas, others are not progressing well towards elimination and may require alternative treatment strategies. Moxidectin, approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration in 2018 for treatment of onchocerciasis in people at least 12 years old, could be an alternative. How the amount of a drug in the body changes over time is important for choosing a dose and treatment regimen and for regulatory approval. We measured moxidectin blood levels in 18 to 60 year old men and women with onchocerciasis. We found that moxidectin blood levels peaked around three-four hours after ingestion, that moxidectin stayed in the body for a long time (i.e., its elimination half-life was around 20 days) and that moxidectin blood levels depended on the dose, but not the infection severity as measured by the number of onchocerciasis parasites in the skin.

Onchocerciasis drug development: from preclinical models to humans

Twenty diseases are recognized as neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) by World Health Assembly resolutions, including human filarial diseases. The end of NTDs is embedded within the Sustainable Development Goals for 2030, under target 3.3. Onchocerciasis afflicts approximately 20.9 million people worldwide with > 90% of those infected residing in Africa. Control programs have made tremendous efforts in the management of onchocerciasis by mass drug administration and aerial larviciding; however, disease elimination is not yet achieved. In the new WHO roadmap, it is recognized that new drugs or drug regimens that kill or permanently sterilize adult filarial worms would significantly improve elimination timelines and accelerate the achievement of the program goal of disease elimination. Drug development is, however, handicapped by high attrition rates, and many promising molecules fail in preclinical development or in subsequent toxicological, safety and efficacy testing; thus, research and development (R&D) costs are, in aggregate, very high. Drug discovery and development for NTDs is largely driven by unmet medical needs put forward by the global health community; the area is underfunded and since no high return on investment is possible, there is no dedicated drug development pipeline for human filariasis. Repurposing existing drugs is one approach to filling the drug development pipeline for human filariasis. The high cost and slow pace of discovery and development of new drugs has led to the repurposing of “old” drugs, as this is more cost-effective and allows development timelines to be shortened. However, even if a drug is marketed for a human or veterinary indication, the safety margin and dosing regimen will need to be re-evaluated to determine the risk in humans. Drug repurposing is a promising approach to enlarging the pool of active molecules in the drug development pipeline. Another consideration when providing new treatment options is the use of combinations, which is not addressed in this review. We here summarize recent advances in the late preclinical or early clinical stage in the search for a potent macrofilaricide, including drugs against the nematode and against its endosymbiont, Wolbachia pipientis.

Feasibility of Onchocerciasis Elimination Using a "Test-and-not-treat" Strategy in Loa loa Co-endemic Areas

Background

Mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin is the main strategy for onchocerciasis elimination. Ivermectin is generally safe, but is associated with serious adverse events in individuals with high Loa loa microfilarial densities (MFD). Therefore, ivermectin MDA is not recommended in areas where onchocerciasis is hypo-endemic and L loa is co-endemic. To eliminate onchocerciasis in those areas, a test-and-not-treat (TaNT) strategy has been proposed. We investigated whether onchocerciasis elimination can be achieved using TaNT and the required duration.

Methods

We used the individual-based model ONCHOSIM to predict the impact of TaNT on onchocerciasis microfilarial (mf) prevalence. We simulated precontrol mf prevalence levels from 2% to 40%. The impact of TaNT was simulated under varying levels of participation, systematic nonparticipation, and exclusion from ivermectin resulting from high L loa MFD. For each scenario, we assessed the time to elimination, defined as bringing onchocerciasis mf prevalence below 1.4%.

Results

In areas with 30% to 40% precontrol mf prevalence, the model predicted that it would take between 14 and 16 years to bring the mf prevalence below 1.4% using conventional MDA, assuming 65% participation. TaNT would increase the time to elimination by up to 1.5 years, depending on the level of systematic nonparticipation and the exclusion rate. At lower exclusion rates (≤2.5%), the delay would be less than 6 months.

Conclusions

Our model predicts that onchocerciasis can be eliminated using TaNT in L loa co-endemic areas. The required treatment duration using TaNT would be only slightly longer than in areas with conventional MDA, provided that participation is good.

How does onchocerciasis-related skin and eye disease in Africa depend on cumulative exposure to infection and mass treatment?

Background

Onchocerciasis (river-blindness) in Africa is targeted for elimination through mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin. Onchocerciasis may cause various types of skin and eye disease. Predicting the impact of MDA on onchocercal morbidity is useful for future policy development. Here, we introduce a new disease module within the established ONCHOSIM model to predict trends over time in prevalence of onchocercal morbidity.

Methods

We developed novel generic model concepts for development of symptoms due to cumulative exposure to dead microfilariae, accommodating both reversible (acute) and irreversible (chronic) symptoms. The model was calibrated to reproduce pre-control age patterns and associations between prevalences of infection, eye disease, and various types of skin disease as observed in a large set of population-based studies. We then used the new disease module to predict the impact of MDA on morbidity prevalence over a 30-year time frame for various scenarios.

Results

ONCHOSIM reproduced observed age-patterns in disease and community-level associations between infection and disease reasonably well. For highly endemic settings with 30 years of annual MDA at 60% coverage, the model predicted a 70% to 89% reduction in prevalence of chronic morbidity. This relative decline was similar with higher MDA coverage and only somewhat higher for settings with lower pre-control endemicity. The decline in prevalence was lowest for mild depigmentation and visual impairment. The prevalence of acute clinical manifestations (severe itch, reactive skin disease) declined by 95% to 100% after 30 years of annual MDA, regardless of pre-control endemicity.

Conclusion

We present generic model concepts for predicting trends in acute and chronic symptoms due to history of exposure to parasitic worm infections, and apply this to onchocerciasis. Our predictions suggest that onchocercal morbidity, in particular chronic manifestations, will remain a public health concern in many epidemiological settings in Africa, even after 30 years of MDA.

Onchocerciasis, also known as river blindness, is the second most common infectious cause of blindness worldwide, but also leads to serious skin conditions. Large-scale interventions are ongoing to control and eliminate the disease in Africa, yet the impact of these interventions on onchocercal morbidity is largely unknown. Here, we predict the trends in a wide spectrum of skin and eye disease due to onchocerciasis after up to 30 years of annual mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin. To this end, we have developed a novel disease framework within the established ONCHOSIM model. We show that annual MDA will rapidly reduce the prevalence of acute clinical conditions, whereas the prevalence of chronic clinical manifestations will decline much more slowly. The new disease framework was validated with several data sources and reproduced morbidity trends adequately, making the framework applicable for more refined disease prevalence predictions by taking account of treatment history in Africa. Such predictions are essential for accurate estimates of disability-adjusted life years lost due to onchocerciasis by 2025.

Detection of Ascaris lumbricoides infection by ABA-1 coproantigen ELISA

Intestinal worms, or soil-transmitted helminths (STHs), affect hundreds of millions of people in all tropical and subtropical regions of the world. The most prevalent STH is Ascaris lumbricoides. Through large-scale deworming programs, World Health Organization aims to reduce morbidity, caused by moderate-to-heavy intensity infections, below 2%. In order to monitor these control programs, stool samples are examined microscopically for the presence of worm eggs. This procedure requires well-trained personnel and is known to show variability between different operators interpreting the slides. We have investigated whether ABA-1, one of the excretory-secretory products of A. lumbricoides can be used as a coproantigen marker for infection with this parasite. Polyclonal antibodies were generated and a coproantigen ELISA was developed. Using this ELISA, it was found that ABA-1 in stool detected Ascaris infection with a sensitivity of 91.5% and a specificity of 95.3%. Our results also demonstrate that there is a correlation between ABA-1 levels in stool and A. lumbricoides DNA detected in stool. Using a threshold of 18.2 ng/g stool the ABA-1 ELISA correctly assigned 68.4% of infected individuals to the moderate-to-heavy intensity infection group, with a specificity of 97.1%. Furthermore, the levels of ABA-1 in stool were shown to rapidly and strongly decrease upon administration of a standard anthelminthic treatment (single oral dose of 400 mg albendazole). In an Ascaris suum infection model in pigs, it was found that ABA-1 remained undetectable until day 28 and was detected at day 42 or 56, concurrent with the appearance of worm eggs in the stool. This report demonstrates that ABA-1 can be considered an Ascaris -specific coproantigen marker that can be used to monitor infection intensity. It also opens the path for development of point-of-care immunoassay-based tests to determine A. lumbricoides infection in stool at the sample collection site.

2-Methyl-pentanoyl-carnitine (2-MPC): a urine biomarker for patent Ascaris lumbricoides infection

Infections with intestinal worms, such as Ascaris lumbricoides, affect hundreds of millions of people in all tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Through large-scale deworming programs, World Health Organization aims to reduce moderate-to-heavy intensity infections below 1%. Current diagnosis and monitoring of these control programs are solely based on the detection of worm eggs in stool. Here we describe how metabolome analysis was used to identify the A. lumbricoides-specific urine biomarker 2-methyl pentanoyl carnitine (2-MPC). This biomarker was found to be 85.7% accurate in determining infection and 90.5% accurate in determining a moderate-to-heavy infection. Our results also demonstrate that there is a correlation between 2-MPC levels in urine and A. lumbricoides DNA detected in stool. Furthermore, the levels of 2-MPC in urine were shown to rapidly and strongly decrease upon administration of a standard treatment (single oral dose of 400 mg albendazole). In an Ascaris suum infection model in pigs, it was found that, although 2-MPC levels were much lower compared to humans, there was a significant association between urinary 2-MPC levels and both worm counts (p = 0.023) and the number of eggs per gram (epg) counts (p < 0.001). This report demonstrates that urinary 2-MPC can be considered an A. lumbricoides-specific biomarker that can be used to monitor infection intensity.

Moxidectin: an oral treatment for human onchocerciasis

INTRODUCTION

Moxidectin is a milbemycin endectocide recently approved for the treatment of human onchocerciasis. Onchocerciasis, earmarked for elimination of transmission, is a filarial infection endemic in Africa, Yemen, and the Amazonian focus straddling Venezuela and Brazil. Concerns over whether the predominant treatment strategy (yearly mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin) is sufficient to achieve elimination in all endemic foci have refocussed attention upon alternative treatments. Moxidectin's stronger and longer microfilarial suppression compared to ivermectin in both phase II and III clinical trials indicates its potential as a novel powerful drug for onchocerciasis elimination.

AREAS COVERED

This work summarizes the chemistry and pharmacology of moxidectin, reviews the phase II and III clinical trials evidence on tolerability, safety, and efficacy of moxidectin versus ivermectin, and discusses the implications of moxidectin's current regulatory status.

EXPERT OPINION

Moxidectin's superior clinical performance has the potential to substantially reduce times to elimination compared to ivermectin. If donated, moxidectin could mitigate the additional programmatic costs of biannual ivermectin distribution because, unlike other alternatives, it can use the existing community-directed treatment infrastructure. A pediatric indication (for children <12 years) and determination of its usefulness in onchocerciasis-loiasis co-endemic areas will greatly help fulfill the potential of moxidectin for the treatment and elimination of onchocerciasis.

Modelling exposure heterogeneity and density dependence in onchocerciasis using a novel individual-based transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM: Implications for elimination and data needs

BACKGROUND

Density dependence in helminth establishment and heterogeneity in exposure to infection are known to drive resilience to interventions based on mass drug administration (MDA). However, the interaction between these processes is poorly understood. We developed a novel individual-based model for onchocerciasis transmission, EPIONCHO-IBM, which accounts for both processes. We fit the model to pre-intervention epidemiological data and explore parasite dynamics during MDA with ivermectin.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Density dependence and heterogeneity in exposure to blackfly (vector) bites were estimated by fitting the model to matched pre-intervention microfilarial prevalence, microfilarial intensity and vector biting rate data from savannah areas of Cameroon and Côte d'Ivoire/Burkina Faso using Latin hypercube sampling. Transmission dynamics during 25 years of annual and biannual ivermectin MDA were investigated. Density dependence in parasite establishment within humans was estimated for different levels of (fixed) exposure heterogeneity to understand how parametric uncertainty may influence treatment dynamics. Stronger overdispersion in exposure to blackfly bites results in the estimation of stronger density-dependent parasite establishment within humans, consequently increasing resilience to MDA. For all levels of exposure heterogeneity tested, the model predicts a departure from the functional forms for density dependence assumed in the deterministic version of the model.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This is the first, stochastic model of onchocerciasis, that accounts for and estimates density-dependent parasite establishment in humans alongside exposure heterogeneity. Capturing the interaction between these processes is fundamental to our understanding of resilience to MDA interventions. Given that uncertainty in these processes results in very different treatment dynamics, collecting data on exposure heterogeneity would be essential for improving model predictions during MDA. We discuss possible ways in which such data may be collected as well as the importance of better understanding the effects of immunological responses on establishing parasites prior to and during ivermectin treatment.

Accelerating river blindness elimination by supplementing MDA with a vegetation "slash and clear" vector control strategy: a data-driven modeling analysis

Attention is increasingly focusing on how best to accelerate progress toward meeting the WHO's 2030 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). For river blindness, a major NTD targeted for elimination, there is a long history of using vector control to suppress transmission, but traditional larvicide-based approaches are limited in their utility. One innovative and sustainable approach, "slash and clear", involves clearing vegetation from breeding areas, and recent field trials indicate that this technique very effectively reduces the biting density of Simulium damnosum s.s. In this study, we use a Bayesian data-driven mathematical modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of this intervention on human onchocerciasis infection. We developed a novel "slash and clear" model describing the effect of the intervention on seasonal black fly biting rates and coupled this with our population dynamics model of Onchocerca volvulus transmission. Our results indicate that supplementing annual drug treatments with "slash and clear" can significantly accelerate the achievement of onchocerciasis elimination. The efficacy of the intervention is not very sensitive to the timing of implementation, and the impact is meaningful even if vegetation is cleared only once per year. As such, this community-driven technique will represent an important option for achieving and sustaining O. volvulus elimination.

The World Health Organization 2030 goals for onchocerciasis: Insights and perspectives from mathematical modelling: NTD Modelling Consortium Onchocerciasis Group

The World Health Organization (WHO) has embarked on a consultation process to refine the 2030 goals for priority neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), onchocerciasis among them. Current goals include elimination of transmission (EOT) by 2020 in Latin America, Yemen and selected African countries. The new goals propose that, by 2030, EOT be verified in 10 countries; mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin be stopped in at least one focus in 34 countries; and that the proportion of the population no longer in need of MDA be equal or greater than 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% in at least 16, 14, 12, and 10 countries, respectively. The NTD Modelling Consortium onchocerciasis teams have used EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM to provide modelling insights into these goals. EOT appears feasible in low-moderate endemic areas with long-term MDA at high coverage (≥75%), but uncertain in areas of higher endemicity, poor coverage and adherence, and where MDA has not yet, or only recently, started. Countries will have different proportions of their endemic areas classified according to these categories, and this distribution of pre-intervention prevalence and MDA duration and programmatic success will determine the feasibility of achieving the proposed MDA cessation goals. Highly endemic areas would benefit from switching to biannual or quarterly MDA and implementing vector control where possible (determining optimal frequency and duration of anti-vectorial interventions requires more research). Areas without loiasis that have not yet initiated MDA should implement biannual (preferably with moxidectin) or quarterly MDA from the start. Areas with loiasis not previously treated would benefit from implementing test-and(not)-treat-based interventions, vector control, and anti- Wolbachia therapies, but their success will depend on the levels of screening and coverage achieved and sustained. The diagnostic performance of IgG4 Ov16 serology for assessing EOT is currently uncertain. Verification of EOT requires novel diagnostics at the individual- and population-levels.

Predictive Value of Ov16 Antibody Prevalence in Different Subpopulations for Elimination of African Onchocerciasis

The World Health Organization currently recommends assessing elimination of onchocerciasis by testing whether Ov16 antibody prevalence in children aged 0–9 years is below 0.1%. However, the certainty of evidence for this recommendation is considered to be low. We used the established ONCHOSIM model to investigate the predictive value of different Ov16-antibody prevalence thresholds in various age groups for elimination of onchocerciasis in a variety of endemic settings and for various mass drug administration scenarios. According to our simulations, the predictive value of Ov16 antibody prevalence for elimination depends highly on the precontrol epidemiologic situation, history of mass drug administration, the age group that is sampled, and the chosen Ov16-antibody prevalence threshold. The Ov16 antibody prevalence in children aged 5–14 years performs best in predicting elimination. Appropriate threshold values for this age group start at 2.0% for very highly endemic areas; for lower-endemic areas, even higher threshold values are safe to use. Guidelines can be improved by sampling school-aged children, which also is operationally more feasible than targeting children under age 10 years. The use of higher threshold values allows sampling of substantially fewer children. Further improvement can be achieved by taking a differentiated sampling approach based on precontrol endemicity.

The effect of assortative mixing on stability of low helminth transmission levels and on the impact of mass drug administration: Model explorations for onchocerciasis

Background

Stable low pre-control prevalences of helminth infection are not uncommon in field settings, yet it is poorly understood how such low levels can be sustained, thereby challenging efforts to model them. Disentangling possible facilitating mechanisms is important, since these may differently affect intervention impact. Here we explore the role of assortative (i.e. non-homogenous) mixing and exposure heterogeneity in helminth transmission, using onchocerciasis as an example.

Methodology/Principal findings

We extended the established individual-based model ONCHOSIM to allow for assortative mixing, assuming that individuals who are relatively more exposed to fly bites are more connected to each other than other individuals in the population as a result of differential exposure to a sub-population of blackflies. We used the model to investigate how transmission stability, equilibrium microfilarial (mf) prevalence and intensity, and impact of mass drug administration depend on the assumed degree of assortative mixing and exposure heterogeneity, for a typical rural population of about 400 individuals. The model clearly demonstrated that with homogeneous mixing and moderate levels of exposure heterogeneity, onchocerciasis could not be sustained below 35% mf prevalence. In contrast, assortative mixing stabilised onchocerciasis prevalence at levels as low as 8% mf prevalence. Increasing levels of assortative mixing significantly reduced the probability of interrupting transmission, given the same duration and coverage of mass drug administration.

Conclusions/Significance

Assortative mixing patterns are an important factor to explain stable low prevalence situations and are highly relevant for prospects of elimination. Their effect on the pre-control distribution of mf intensities in human populations is only detectable in settings with mf prevalences <30%, where high skin mf density in mf-positive people may be an indication of assortative mixing. Local spatial variation in larval infection intensity in the blackfly intermediate host may also be an indicator of assortative mixing.

Most mathematical models for parasitic worm infections predict that at low prevalences transmission will fade out spontaneously because of the low mating probability of male and female worms. However, sustained low prevalence situations do exist in reality. Low prevalence areas have become of particular interest now that several worm infections are being targeted for elimination and the question arises whether transmission in such areas is driven locally and should be targeted with interventions. We hypothesise that an explanation for the existence of low prevalence areas is assortative mixing, which is the preferential mixing of high-risk groups among themselves and which has been shown to play an important role in transmission of other infectious diseases. For onchocerciasis, assortative mixing would mean that transmission is sustained by a sub-group of people and a connected sub-population of the blackfly intermediate host that mix preferentially with each other. Using a mathematical model, we study how assortative mixing allows for sustained low prevalences and show that it decreases the probability of interrupting transmission by means of mass drug administration. We further identify data sources that may be used to quantify the degree of assortative mixing in field settings.

Modelling the elimination of river blindness using long-term epidemiological and programmatic data from Mali and Senegal

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Onchocerciasis is earmarked for elimination in some African countries by 2020/2025.

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15+ years of ivermectin treatment drove infection prevalence to zero in areas of Mali & Senegal.

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Data-driven model projections are used to evaluate the risk of infection resurgence.

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Latent infections can initiate slow resurgence in communities with high transmission propensity.

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Highly sensitive and long-term surveillance will be necessary to verify elimination.

The onchocerciasis transmission models EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM have been independently developed and used to explore the feasibility of eliminating onchocerciasis from Africa with mass (annual or biannual) distribution of ivermectin within the timeframes proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and endorsed by the 2012 London Declaration on Neglected Tropical Diseases (i.e. by 2020/2025). Based on the findings of our previous model comparison, we implemented technical refinements and tested the projections of EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM against long-term epidemiological data from two West African transmission foci in Mali and Senegal where the observed prevalence of infection was brought to zero circa 2007–2009 after 15–17 years of mass ivermectin treatment. We simulated these interventions using programmatic information on the frequency and coverage of mass treatments and trained the model projections using longitudinal parasitological data from 27 communities, evaluating the projected outcome of elimination (local parasite extinction) or resurgence. We found that EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM captured adequately the epidemiological trends during mass treatment but that resurgence, while never predicted by ONCHOSIM, was predicted by EPIONCHO in some communities with the highest (inferred) vector biting rates and associated pre-intervention endemicities. Resurgence can be extremely protracted such that low (microfilarial) prevalence between 1% and 5% can be maintained for 3–5 years before manifesting more prominently. We highlight that post-treatment and post-elimination surveillance protocols must be implemented for long enough and with high enough sensitivity to detect possible residual latent infections potentially indicative of resurgence. We also discuss uncertainty and differences between EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM projections, the potential importance of vector control in high-transmission settings as a complementary intervention strategy, and the short remaining timeline for African countries to be ready to stop treatment safely and begin surveillance in order to meet the impending 2020/2025 elimination targets.

Macrofilaricidal Efficacy of Repeated Doses of Ivermectin for the Treatment of River Blindness

Background

Mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin is the cornerstone of efforts to eliminate human onchocerciasis by 2020 or 2025. The feasibility of elimination crucially depends on the effects of multiple ivermectin doses on Onchocerca volvulus. A single ivermectin (standard) dose clears the skin-dwelling microfilarial progeny of adult worms (macrofilariae) and temporarily impedes the release of such progeny by female macrofilariae, but a macrofilaricidal effect has been deemed minimal. Multiple doses of ivermectin may cumulatively and permanently reduce the fertility and shorten the lifespan of adult females. However, rigorous quantification of these effects necessitates interrogating longitudinal data on macrofilariae with suitably powerful analytical techniques.

Methods

Using a novel mathematical modeling approach, we analyzed, at an individual participant level, longitudinal data on viability and fertility of female worms from the single most comprehensive multiple-dose clinical trial of ivermectin, comparing 3-monthly with annual treatments administered for 3 years in Cameroon.

Results

Multiple doses of ivermectin have a partial macrofilaricidal and a modest permanent sterilizing effect after 4 or more consecutive treatments, even at routine MDA doses (150 µg/kg) and frequencies (annual). The life expectancy of adult O. volvulus is reduced by approximately 50% and 70% after 3 years of annual or 3-monthly (quarterly) exposures to ivermectin.

Conclusions

Our quantification of macrofilaricidal and sterilizing effects of ivermectin should be incorporated into transmission models to inform onchocerciasis elimination efforts in Africa and residual foci in Latin America. It also provides a framework to assess macrofilaricidal candidate drugs currently under development.

Is onchocerciasis elimination in Africa feasible by 2025: a perspective based on lessons learnt from the African control programmes

BACKGROUND

Onchocerciasis is found predominantly in Africa where large scale vector control started in 1974. Registration and donation of ivermectin by Merck & Co in 1987 enabled mass treatment with ivermectin in all endemic countries in Africa and the Americas. Although elimination of onchocerciasis with ivermectin was considered feasible only in the Americas, recently it has been shown possible in Africa too, necessitating fundamental changes in technical and operational approaches and procedures.

MAIN BODY

The American programme(OEPA) operating in onchocerciasis epidemiological settings similar to the mild end of the complex epidemiology of onchocerciasis in Africa, has succeeded in eliminating onchocerciasis from 4 of its 6 endemic countries. This was achieved through biannual mass treatment with ivermectin of 85% of the eligible population, and monitoring and evaluation using serological tests in children and entomological tests. The first African programme(OCP) had a head start of nearly two decades. It employed vector control and accumulated lots of knowledge on the dynamics of onchocerciasis elimination over a wide range of epidemiological settings in the vast expanse of its core area. OCP made extensive use of modelling and operationalised elimination indicators for entomological evaluation and epidemiological evaluation using skin snip procedures. The successor African programme(APOC) employed mainly ivermectin treatment. Initially its objective was to control onchocerciasis as a public health problem but that objective was later expanded to include the elimination of onchocerciasis where feasible. Building on the experience with onchocerciasis elimination of the OCP, APOC has leveraged OCP's vast modelling experience and has developed operational procedures and indicators for evaluating progress towards elimination and stopping ivermectin mass treatment of onchocerciasis in the complex African setting.

CONCLUSIONS

Following the closure of APOC in 2015, implementation of onchocerciasis elimination in Africa appears to overlook all the experience that has been accumulated by the African programmes. It is employing predominantly American processes that were developed in a dissimilar setting from the complex African onchocerciasis setting. This is impeding progress towards decisions to stop intervention in many areas that have reached the elimination point. This article summarizes lessons learned in Africa and their importance for achieving elimination in Africa by 2025.

How Can Onchocerciasis Elimination in Africa Be Accelerated? Modeling the Impact of Increased Ivermectin Treatment Frequency and Complementary Vector Control

Background

Great strides have been made toward onchocerciasis elimination by mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. Focusing on MDA-eligible areas, we investigated where the elimination goal can be achieved by 2025 by continuation of current practice (annual MDA with ivermectin) and where intensification or additional vector control is required. We did not consider areas hypoendemic for onchocerciasis with loiasis coendemicity where MDA is contraindicated.

Methods

We used 2 previously published mathematical models, ONCHOSIM and EPIONCHO, to simulate future trends in microfilarial prevalence for 80 different settings (defined by precontrol endemicity and past MDA frequency and coverage) under different future treatment scenarios (annual, biannual, or quarterly MDA with different treatment coverage through 2025, with or without vector control strategies), assessing for each strategy whether it eventually leads to elimination.

Results

Areas with 40%-50% precontrol microfilarial prevalence and ≥10 years of annual MDA may achieve elimination with a further 7 years of annual MDA, if not achieved already, according to both models. For most areas with 70%-80% precontrol prevalence, ONCHOSIM predicts that either annual or biannual MDA is sufficient to achieve elimination by 2025, whereas EPIONCHO predicts that elimination will not be achieved even with complementary vector control.

Conclusions

Whether elimination will be reached by 2025 depends on precontrol endemicity, control history, and strategies chosen from now until 2025. Biannual or quarterly MDA will accelerate progress toward elimination but cannot guarantee it by 2025 in high-endemicity areas. Long-term concomitant MDA and vector control for high-endemicity areas might be useful.

Modelling the health and economic impacts of the elimination of river blindness (onchocerciasis) in Africa

BACKGROUND

Onchocerciasis (river blindness) is endemic mostly in remote and rural areas in sub-Saharan Africa. The treatment goal for onchocerciasis has shifted from control to elimination in Africa. For investment decisions, national and global policymakers need evidence on benefits, costs and risks of elimination initiatives.

METHODS

We estimated the health benefits using a dynamical transmission model, and the needs for health workforce and outpatient services for elimination strategies in comparison to a control mode. We then estimated the associated costs to both health systems and households and the potential economic impacts in terms of income gains.

RESULTS

The elimination of onchocerciasis in Africa would avert 4.3 million-5.6 million disability-adjusted life years over 2013-2045 when compared with staying in the control mode, and also reduce the required number of community volunteers by 45-53% and community health workers by 56-60%. The elimination of onchocerciasis in Africa when compared with the control mode is predicted to save outpatient service costs by $37.2 million-$39.9 million and out-of-pocket payments by $25.5 million-$26.9 million over 2013-2045, and generate economic benefits up to $5.9 billion-$6.4 billion in terms of income gains.

DISCUSSION

The elimination of onchocerciasis in Africa would lead to substantial health and economic benefits, reducing the needs for health workforce and outpatient services. To realise these benefits, the support and collaboration of community, national and global policymakers would be needed to sustain the elimination strategies.

Modelling Anti-Ov16 IgG4 Antibody Prevalence as an Indicator for Evaluation and Decision Making in Onchocerciasis Elimination Programmes

BACKGROUND

Onchocerciasis is targeted for elimination in Africa through annual or biannual ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA). An immunodiagnostic test, based on the detection of human IgG4 antibodies in the blood to the Onchocerca volvulus-specific antigen Ov16, is one of the recommended tools for determining whether transmission is interrupted and mass treatment can stop. For different transmission settings, the relationship between post-MDA Ov16 antibody prevalence in children (measured 1 year after the last round of MDA) and the duration and coverage of MDA, the mf prevalence in the population, and the probability that onchocerciasis is eventually eliminated is explored through mathematical modelling.

METHODOLOGY

The ONCHOSIM model was extended with new output on the Ov16 antibody serostatus of individuals. Seroconversion was assumed to be triggered by the first worm establishing in the host, with seroconversion occurring either before maturation, after maturation or only after the start of mf production. We are mainly interested in seroconversion rates in children, and for now ignore the possibility of seroreversion to simplify the model.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Yearly repeated MDA leads to a strong reduction in the parasite acquisition rate in humans. This reduces the seroconversion rate in newborns and young children, while those who seroconverted before the start of control remain antibody positive. Both the microfiladermia prevalence in the population aged 5 years and above and the Ov16 antibody prevalence in children under 10 declined with increasing duration of MDA. The association between either of these indicators and the model-predicted probability of elimination was not influenced much by the assumed treatment coverage levels, but was found to depend on baseline endemicity levels, assumptions regarding the trigger of seroconversion, and diagnostic test characteristics (sensitivity and specificity).

CONCLUSIONS

Better understanding of the dynamics of Ov16 antibody responses is required for accurate interpretation of seroprevalence data and more precise estimation of endpoint for MDA. Our study demonstrates that this endpoint will be dependent on baseline endemicity levels, which should be taken into account in guidelines for defining when to stop MDA.

Factors Associated with Ivermectin Non-Compliance and Its Potential Role in Sustaining Onchocerca volvulus Transmission in the West Region of Cameroon

Background

Community Directed Treatment with ivermectin is the cornerstone of current efforts to eliminate onchocerciasis. However recent studies suggest there are foci where long-term annual distribution of the drug alone has failed to ensure elimination thresholds are reached. It is important to achieve high levels of compliance in order to obtain elimination targets. An epidemiological and entomological evaluation conducted in the western region of Cameroon in 2011 revealed that two health districts remained with a high prevalence of infection, despite long-term distribution of ivermectin since 1996. This paper explores potential factors that may have contributed to the non-interruption of transmission, focusing on ivermectin treatment compliance and the importance of systematic non-compliance within the population.

Methodology/Principal findings

A mixed methods approach was used, including a population-based survey to assess treatment compliance and factors associated and qualitative assessments including focus group discussions and in-depth interviews with key programme stakeholders and drug distributors. Compliance was reported at 71.2% (95%CI: 61.7–79.2%;n = 853/1198). The key factors related to compliance in the most recent round related to either programmatic and delivery issues, primarily absenteeism at the time of the campaign or alternatively individual determinants. An individual’s experience of side effects in the past was strongly associated with non-compliance to ivermectin. Other factors included ethnicity, how long lived in the village and age. There was a high percentage of reported systematic non-compliance at 7.4% (95% CI: 4.3–12.3%; n = 86/1165), higher amongst females. This group may be important in facilitating the sustainment of on-going transmission.

Conclusions/Significance

Efforts to reduce the number of systematic non-compliers and non-compliance in certain groups may be important in ensuring the interruption of transmission in the study area. However, in areas with high pre-control force of transmission, as in these districts, annual distribution with ivermectin, even if sustaining high levels of compliance, may still be inadequate to achieve elimination. Further studies are required to better understand the transmission dynamics and focus of on-going transmission in the study districts.

Community Directed Treatment with ivermectin is the cornerstone of current efforts to eliminate onchocerciasis. Ivermectin distribution alone has been shown to be able to interrupt transmission but there are foci where long-term distribution of the drug alone has failed to ensure elimination thresholds are reached. Two health districts in the western region of Cameroon remain with high prevalence of infection despite annual distribution of ivermectin since 1996. The study aims to explore factors related to non-compliance in two health districts in the west region of Cameroon. Nearly 30% of the population did not take ivermectin during the most recent round of mass drug administration and there was a significant proportion of the population that had reportedly never taken the drug. The key factors related to drug compliance in the most recent round, related to either programmatic and delivery issues, primarily absenteeism at the time of the campaign, or alternatively individual determinants, such as side effects associated with the drug, ethnicity, age and years lived in the village. Efforts to reduce the number of systematic non-compliers and non-compliance in certain groups are likely to be important in ensuring the interruption of transmission in the study area.

A Splendid Gift from the Earth: The Origins and Impact of the Avermectins (Nobel Lecture)

Japanese soil was the origin of one of the most important drugs of the world: ivermectin. No other drug has such importance for the health of millions of people, particularly in the poor regions of the world. The discovery of the parent compounds of the avermectines is described first hand by S. Ōmura.

Modelling Neglected Tropical Diseases diagnostics: the sensitivity of skin snips for Onchocerca volvulus in near elimination and surveillance settings

BACKGROUND

The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control has proposed provisional thresholds for the prevalence of microfilariae in humans and of L3 larvae in blackflies, below which mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin can be stopped and surveillance started. Skin snips are currently the gold standard test for detecting patent Onchocerca volvulus infection, and the World Health Organization recommends their use to monitor progress of treatment programmes (but not to verify elimination). However, if they are used (in transition and in parallel to Ov-16 serology), sampling protocols should be designed to demonstrate that programmatic goals have been reached. The sensitivity of skin snips is key to the design of such protocols.

METHODS

We develop a mathematical model for the number of microfilariae in a skin snip and parameterise it using data from Guatemala, Venezuela, Ghana and Cameroon collected before the start of ivermectin treatment programmes. We use the model to estimate sensitivity as a function of time since last treatment, number of snips taken, microfilarial aggregation and female worm fertility after exposure to 10 annual rounds of ivermectin treatment.

RESULTS

The sensitivity of the skin snip method increases with time after treatment, with most of the increase occurring between 0 and 5 years. One year after the last treatment, the sensitivity of two skin snips taken from an individual infected with a single fertile female worm is 31 % if there is no permanent effect of multiple ivermectin treatments on fertility; 18 % if there is a 7 % reduction per treatment, and 0.6 % if there is a 35 % reduction. At 5 years, the corresponding sensitivities are 76 %, 62 % and 4.7 %. The sensitivity improves significantly if 4 skin snips are taken: in the absence of a permanent effect of ivermectin, the sensitivity of 4 skin snips is 53 % 1 year and 94 % 5 years after the last treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model supports the timelines proposed by APOC for post-MDA follow-up and surveillance surveys every 3-5 years. Two skin snips from the iliac region have reasonable sensitivity to detect residual infection, but the sensitivity can be significantly improved by taking 4 snips. The costs and benefits of using four versus two snips should be evaluated.

River Blindness: Mathematical Models for Control and Elimination

Human onchocerciasis (river blindness) is one of the few neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) whose control strategies have been informed by mathematical modelling. With the change in focus from elimination of the disease burden to elimination of Onchocerca volvulus, much remains to be done to refine, calibrate and validate existing models. Under the impetus of the NTD Modelling Consortium, the teams that developed EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM have joined forces to compare and improve these frameworks to better assist ongoing elimination efforts. We review their current versions and describe how they are being used to address two key questions: (1) where can onchocerciasis be eliminated with current intervention strategies by 2020/2025? and (2) what alternative/complementary strategies could help to accelerate elimination where (1) cannot be achieved? The control and elimination of onchocerciasis from the African continent is at a crucial crossroad. The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control closed at the end of 2015, and although a new platform for support and integration of NTD control has been launched, the disease will have to compete with a myriad of other national health priorities at a pivotal time in the road to elimination. However, never before had onchocerciasis control a better arsenal of intervention strategies as well as diagnostics. It is, therefore, timely to present two models of different geneses and modelling traditions as they come together to produce robust decision-support tools. We start by describing the structural and parametric assumptions of EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM; we continue by summarizing the modelling of current treatment strategies with annual (or biannual) mass ivermectin distribution and introduce a number of alternative strategies, including other microfilaricidal therapies (such as moxidectin), macrofilaricidal (anti-wolbachial) treatments, focal vector control and the possibility of an onchocerciasis vaccine. We conclude by discussing challenges, opportunities and future directions.

Nobel prize for the artemisinin and ivermectin discoveries: a great boost towards elimination of the global infectious diseases of poverty

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) made a marked transformation for neglected and vulnerable communities in the developing countries from the start, but infectious diseases of poverty (IDoPs) continue to inflict a disproportionate global public health burden with associated consequences, thereby contributing to the vicious cycle of poverty and inequity. However, the effectiveness and large-scale coverage of artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) have revolutionized malaria treatment just as the control of lymphatic filariasis (LF) and onchocerciasis have benefitted from harnessing the broad-spectrum effect of avermectin-based derivatives. The paradigm shift in therapeutic approach, effected by these two drugs and their impact on community-based interventions of parasitic diseases plaguing the endemic low- and middle-income countries (LIMCs), led to the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 2015. However, the story would not be complete without mentioning praziquantel. The huge contribution of this drug in modernizing the control of schistosomiasis and also some intestinal helminth infections had already shifted the focus from control to potential elimination of this disease. Together, these new drugs have provided humankind with powerful new tools for the alleviation of infectious diseases that humans have lived with since time immemorial. These drugs all have broad-spectrum effects, yet they are very safe and can even be packaged together in various combinations. The strong effect on so many of the great infectious scourges in the developing countries has not only had a remarkable influence on many endemic diseases, but also contributed to improving the cost structure of healthcare. Significant benefits include improved quality of preventive and curative medicine, promotion of community-based interventions, universal health coverage and the fostering of global partnerships. The laudable progress and benefits achieved are indispensable in championing, strengthening and moving forward elimination of the IDoPs. However, there is an urgent need for further innovative, contextual and integrated approaches along with the advent of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), replacing the MDGs in ensuring global health security, well-being and economic prosperity for all.

Feasibility of controlling hookworm infection through preventive chemotherapy: a simulation study using the individual-based WORMSIM modelling framework

Background

Globally, hookworms infect 440 million people in developing countries. Especially children and women of childbearing age are at risk of developing anaemia as a result of infection. To control hookworm infection and disease (i.e. reduce the prevalence of medium and heavy infection to <1 %), the World Health Organization has set the target to provide annual or semi-annual preventive chemotherapy (PC) with albendazole (ALB) or mebendazole (MEB) to at least 75 % of all children and women of childbearing age in endemic areas by 2020. Here, we predict the feasibility of achieving <1 % prevalence of medium and heavy infection, based on simulations with an individual-based model.

Methods

We developed WORMSIM, a new generalized individual-based modelling framework for transmission and control of helminths, and quantified it for hookworm transmission based on published data. We simulated the impact of standard and more intense PC strategies on trends in hookworm infection, and explored the potential additional impact of interventions that improve access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH). The individual-based framework allowed us to take account of inter-individual heterogeneities in exposure and contribution to transmission of infection, as well as in participation in successive PC rounds.

Results

We predict that in low and medium endemic areas, current PC strategies (including targeting of WCBA) will achieve control of hookworm infection (i.e. the parasitological target) within 2 years. In highly endemic areas, control can be achieved with semi-annual PC with ALB at 90 % coverage, combined with interventions that reduce host contributions to the environmental reservoir of infection by 50 %. More intense PC strategies (high frequency and coverage) can help speed up control of hookworm infection, and may be necessary in some extremely highly endemic settings, but are not a panacea against systematic non-participation to PC.

Conclusions

Control of hookworm infection by 2020 is feasible with current PC strategies (including targeting of WCBA). In highly endemic areas, PC should be combined with health education and/or WASH interventions.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1151-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Required duration of mass ivermectin treatment for onchocerciasis elimination in Africa: a comparative modelling analysis

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) has set ambitious targets for the elimination of onchocerciasis by 2020–2025 through mass ivermectin treatment. Two different mathematical models have assessed the feasibility of reaching this goal for different settings and treatment scenarios, namely the individual-based microsimulation model ONCHOSIM and the population-based deterministic model EPIONCHO. In this study, we harmonize some crucial assumptions and compare model predictions on common outputs.

Methods

Using a range of initial endemicity levels and treatment scenarios, we compared the models with respect to the following outcomes: 1) model-predicted trends in microfilarial (mf) prevalence and mean mf intensity during 25 years of (annual or biannual) mass ivermectin treatment; 2) treatment duration needed to bring mf prevalence below a provisional operational threshold for treatment interruption (pOTTIS, i.e. 1.4 %), and 3) treatment duration needed to drive the parasite population to local elimination, even in the absence of further interventions. Local elimination was judged by stochastic fade-out in ONCHOSIM and by reaching transmission breakpoints in EPIONCHO.

Results

ONCHOSIM and EPIONCHO both predicted that in mesoendemic areas the pOTTIS can be reached with annual treatment, but that this strategy may be insufficient in very highly hyperendemic areas or would require prolonged continuation of treatment. For the lower endemicity levels explored, ONCHOSIM predicted that the time needed to reach the pOTTIS is longer than that needed to drive the parasite population to elimination, whereas for the higher endemicity levels the opposite was true. In EPIONCHO, the pOTTIS was reached consistently sooner than the breakpoint.

Conclusions

The operational thresholds proposed by APOC may have to be adjusted to adequately reflect differences in pre-control endemicities. Further comparative modelling work will be conducted to better understand the main causes of differences in model-predicted trends. This is a pre-requisite for guiding elimination programmes in Africa and refining operational criteria for stopping mass treatment.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1159-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Control, elimination, and eradication of river blindness: scenarios, timelines, and ivermectin treatment needs in Africa

River blindness (onchocerciasis) causes severe itching, skin lesions, and vision impairment including blindness. More than 99% of all current cases are found in sub-Saharan Africa. Fortunately, vector control and community-directed treatment with ivermectin have significantly reduced morbidity. Studies in Mali and Senegal proved the feasibility of elimination with ivermectin administration. The treatment goal is shifting from control to elimination in endemic African regions. Given limited resources, national and global policymakers need a rigorous analysis comparing investment options. For this, we developed scenarios for alternative treatment goals and compared treatment timelines and drug needs between the scenarios. Control, elimination, and eradication scenarios were developed with reference to current standard practices, large-scale studies, and historical data. For each scenario, the timeline when treatment is expected to stop at country level was predicted using a dynamical transmission model, and ivermectin treatment needs were predicted based on population in endemic areas, treatment coverage data, and the frequency of community-directed treatment. The control scenario requires community-directed treatment with ivermectin beyond 2045 with around 2.63 billion treatments over 2013–2045; the elimination scenario, until 2028 in areas where feasible, but beyond 2045 in countries with operational challenges, around 1.15 billion treatments; and the eradication scenario, lasting until 2040, around 1.30 billion treatments. The eradication scenario is the most favorable in terms of the timeline of the intervention phase and treatment needs. For its realization, strong health systems and political will are required to overcome epidemiological and political challenges.

River blindness (onchocerciasis) is transmitted by blackflies and causes severe itching, skin lesions, and vision impairment including blindness. More than 99% of all current cases are found in sub-Saharan Africa where the disease has historically hindered socioeconomic development in endemic areas. The treatment goal is shifting from control to elimination in Africa as morbidity has significantly decreased through vector control and community-directed treatment with ivermectin. Studies in Mali and Senegal proved that elimination is feasible with ivermectin administration. Given limited resources, national and global policymakers need a rigorous analysis of investment options from epidemiological, economic, and societal aspects. For this, we developed control, elimination, and eradication scenarios and compared treatment timelines and drug needs over the next 30 years. We found that the elimination and eradication scenarios would require a shorter treatment phase and a smaller amount of ivermectin than the control scenario, mainly because community-directed treatment with ivermectin could be ended earlier thanks to regular active surveillance.

Elimination of African onchocerciasis: modeling the impact of increasing the frequency of ivermectin mass treatment

The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) is currently shifting its focus from morbidity control to elimination of infection. To enhance the likelihood of elimination and speed up its achievement, programs may consider to increase the frequency of ivermectin mass treatment from annual to 6-monthly or even higher. In a computer simulation study, we examined the potential impact of increasing the mass treatment frequency for different settings. With the ONCHOSIM model, we simulated 92,610 scenarios pertaining to different assumptions about transmission conditions, history of mass treatment, the future mass treatment strategy, and ivermectin efficacy. Simulation results were used to determine the minimum remaining program duration and number of treatment rounds required to achieve 99% probability of elimination. Doubling the frequency of treatment from yearly to 6-monthly or 3-monthly was predicted to reduce remaining program duration by about 40% or 60%, respectively. These reductions come at a cost of additional treatment rounds, especially in case of 3-monthly mass treatment. Also, aforementioned reductions are highly dependent on maintained coverage, and could be completely nullified if coverage of mass treatment were to fall in the future. In low coverage settings, increasing treatment coverage is almost just as effective as increasing treatment frequency. We conclude that 6-monthly mass treatment may only be worth the effort in situations where annual treatment is expected to take a long time to achieve elimination in spite of good treatment coverage, e.g. because of unfavorable transmission conditions or because mass treatment started recently.

Onchocerciasis transmission in Ghana: biting and parous rates of host-seeking sibling species of the Simulium damnosum complex

Background

Ghana is renowned for its sibling species diversity of the Simulium damnosum complex, vectors of Onchocerca volvulus. Detailed entomological knowledge becomes a priority as onchocerciasis control policy has shifted from morbidity reduction to elimination of infection. To date, understanding of transmission dynamics of O. volvulus has been mainly based on S. damnosum sensu stricto (s.s.) data. We aim to elucidate bionomic features of vector species of importance for onchocerciasis elimination efforts.

Methods

We collected S. damnosum sensu lato from seven villages in four Ghanaian regions between 2009 and 2011, using standard vector collection, and human- and cattle-baited tents. Taxa were identified using morphological and molecular techniques. Monthly biting rates (MBR), parous rates and monthly parous biting rates (MPBR) are reported by locality, season, trapping method and hour of collection for each species.

Results

S. damnosum s.s./S. sirbanum were collected at Asubende and Agborlekame, both savannah villages. A range of species was caught in the Volta region (forest-savannah mosaic) and Gyankobaa (forest), with S. squamosum or S. sanctipauli being the predominant species, respectively. In Bosomase (southern forest region) only S. sanctipauli was collected in the 2009 wet season, but in the 2010 dry season S. yahense was also caught. MBRs ranged from 714 bites/person/month at Agborlekame (100% S. damnosum s.s./S. sirbanum) to 8,586 bites/person/month at Pillar 83/Djodji (98.5% S. squamosum). MBRs were higher in the wet season. In contrast, parous rates were higher in the dry season (41.8% vs. 18.4%), resulting in higher MPBRs in the dry season. Daily host-seeking activity of S. damnosum s.s./S. sirbanum was bimodal, whilst S. squamosum and S. sanctipauli had unimodal afternoon peaks.

Conclusions

The bionomic differences between sibling species of the S. damnosum complex need to be taken into account when designing entomological monitoring protocols for interventions and parameterising mathematical models for onchocerciasis control and elimination.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0511-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Sensitivity and specificity of multiple Kato-Katz thick smears and a circulating cathodic antigen test for Schistosoma mansoni diagnosis pre- and post-repeated-praziquantel treatment

Background

Two Kato-Katz thick smears (Kato-Katzs) from a single stool are currently recommended for diagnosing Schistosoma mansoni infections to map areas for intervention. This ‘gold standard’ has low sensitivity at low infection intensities. The urine point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen test (POC-CCA) is potentially more sensitive but how accurately they detect S. mansoni after repeated praziquantel treatments, their suitability for measuring drug efficacy and their correlation with egg counts remain to be fully understood. We compared the accuracies of one to six Kato-Katzs and one POC-CCA for the diagnosis of S. mansoni in primary-school children who have received zero to ten praziquantel treatments. We determined the impact each diagnostic approach may have on monitoring and evaluation (M&E) and drug-efficacy findings.

Method/Principle Findings

In a high S. mansoni endemic area of Uganda, three days of consecutive stool samples were collected from primary school-aged children (six - 12 years) at five time-points in year one: baseline, one-week-post-, four-weeks-post-, six-months-post-, and six-months-one-week-post-praziquantel and three time-points in years two and three: pre-, one-week-post- and four-weeks-post-praziquantel-treatment/retreatment (n = 1065). Two Kato-Katzs were performed on each stool. In parallel, one urine sample was collected and a single POC-CCA evaluated per child at each time-point in year one (n = 367). At baseline, diagnosis by two Kato-Katzs (sensitivity = 98.6%) or one POC-CCA (sensitivity = 91.7%, specificity = 75.0%) accurately predicted S. mansoni infections. However, one year later, a minimum of three Kato-Katzs, and two years later, five Kato-Katzs were required for accurate diagnosis (sensitivity >90%) and drug-efficacy evaluation. The POC-CCA was as sensitive as six Kato-Katzs four-weeks-post and six-months-post-treatment, if trace readings were classified as positive.

Conclusions/Significance

Six Kato-Katzs (two/stool from three stools) and/or one POC-CCA are required for M&E or drug-efficacy studies. Although unable to measure egg reduction rates, one POC-CCA appears to be more sensitive than six Kato-Katzs at four-weeks-post-praziquantel (drug efficacy) and six-months-post-praziquantel (M&E).

Schistosomiasis is a parasitic disease infecting over 200 million people. It remains a major public health concern despite treatment of over 120 million people in sub-Saharan Africa alone. Accurate diagnostic methods are essential for monitoring drug efficacy and long-term control program success. The World Health Organization recommends two Kato-Katz thick smears (Kato-Katzs) from a single stool for Schistosoma mansoni diagnosis to map prevalence and areas for control interventions. Although highly specific, Kato-Katzs are thought to be insensitive at low egg counts. The recently refined urine point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen test (POC-CCA) has been proposed as a diagnostic alternative for mapping areas for interventions, and potentially for assessing drug efficacy. Over three years we assessed the accuracy of six Kato-Katzs and a single POC-CCA in detecting infections in Ugandan primary-school children at 11 time points with repeated praziquantel treatments. Our results demonstrate that two Kato-Katzs accurately detect S. mansoni infection pre-treatment, but at least three days of two Kato-Katzs per stool or one POC-CCA are required for annual monitoring and treatment evaluation and/or drug-efficacy studies. One POC-CCA may be more sensitive in measuring S. mansoni prevalence than six Kato-Katzs, but its accuracies for rigorous intensity measures are still to be proven.

Modelling the impact of ivermectin on River Blindness and its burden of morbidity and mortality in African Savannah: EpiOncho projections

Background

The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has refocused its goals on the elimination of infection where possible, seemingly achievable by 15–17 years of annual mass distribution of ivermectin in some African foci. Previously, APOC had focused on the elimination of onchocerciasis as a public health problem. Timeframes have been set by the World Health Organization, the London Declaration on Neglected Tropical Diseases and the World Bank to achieve these goals by 2020–2025.

Methods

A novel mathematical model of the dynamics of onchocercal disease is presented which links documented associations between Onchocerca volvulus infection and the prevalence and incidence of morbidity and mortality to model outputs from our host age- and sex-structured onchocerciasis transmission framework (EpiOncho). The model is calibrated for African savannah settings, and used to assess the impact of long-term annual mass administration of ivermectin on infection and ocular and skin disease and to explore how this depends on epidemiological and programmatic variables.

Results

Current onchocerciasis disease projections, which do not account for excess mortality of sighted individuals with heavy microfilarial loads, underestimate disease burden. Long-term annual ivermectin treatment is highly effective at reducing both the morbidity and mortality associated with onchocerciasis, and this result is not greatly influenced by treatment coverage and compliance. By contrast, impact on microfilarial prevalence and intensity is highly dependent on baseline endemicity, treatment coverage and systematic non-compliance.

Conclusions

The goals of eliminating morbidity and infection with ivermectin alone are distinctly influenced by epidemiological and programmatic factors. Whilst the former goal is most certainly achievable, reaching the latter will strongly depend on initial endemicity (the higher the endemicity, the greater the magnitude of inter-treatment transmission), advising caution when generalising the applicability of successful elimination outcomes to other areas. The proportion of systematic non-compliers will become far more influential in terms of overall success in achieving elimination goals.

New strategies to combat filariasis

Two of the major filarial infections, lymphatic filariasis (LF) and onchocerciasis, affect 150 million people, while 1 billion living in endemic areas are at risk of infection. Public health programs to control these infections have successfully existed for years and have evolved from activities driven by the WHO into global programs with public-private partnerships. Currently, these programs use yearly mass application of drugs that mainly kill the larval stages (the microfilariae), with the aim of preventing uptake by the transmitting insect vectors and thus, to block transmission and reduce the infections to such levels that in 15-30 years from now, they will no longer pose a public health problem. While the programs have been very successful in general, there are drawbacks such as coverage being too low within the population, reappearance of infection by migration of infected people into controlled areas, targeting of a stage (the microfilaria) that does not induce pathology in LF and thus lowers compliance, and the potential development of drug resistance, first indications of which have been clearly observed in onchocerciasis. In addition, even without drawbacks, program scopes are not the eradication of filarial infections, which is, however, an ultimate goal of control activities. There is therefore an unequivocal call for the development of higher efficient, complementary chemotherapeutical approaches that lead to a long-lasting reduction of the pathology-inducing worm stages; that is, microfilariae in onchocerciasis and adult worms in LF, or to a macrofilaricidal effect. The recent discovery that depletion of Wolbachia endosymbionts by tetracycline antibiotics leads to long-lasting sterility of adult female worms in onchocerciasis and a macrofilaricidal effect in LF fulfils these requirements. Successful regimens have already been published and agreed upon for use by expert panels. While these regimens are still too long for mass application, the antiwolbachial chemotherapy can currently be applied in the form of a suitable doxycycline regimen for 6 weeks for the treatment of individuals, and exploited in the future for the development of new drugs suitable for mass application. In addition, first data suggest that Wolbachia may also be major mediators of lymphangiogenesis and that their depletion is associated with reduction of lymph vessel-specific vascular endothelial growth factors and reduced lymph vessel size.

Impact of Eighteen-Year Varied Compliance to Onchocerciasis Treatment with Ivermectin in Sentinel Savannah Agrarian Communities in Kaduna State of Nigeria

Baseline and impact assessment data were generated in 1994 (n = 532) and 2011 (n = 593) from 6 sentinel villages with generalized onchocerciasis. Only volunteers and a cohort (n = 445, 75%) were screened at both visits. Each village had received 11 (64.7%) annual treatments and 92.6%, range 88.7-100%, treatment compliance. Overall mean number of treatment was 2.9 ± 1.6 with a range 2.0 ± 1.2-3.3 ± 0.6. Significant decreases in skin microfilaria prevalence from 201 (38%) to 0 (0%), palpable nodule from 77 (15%) to 4 (0.7%), dermal changes from 51 (9.6%) to 2 (0.04%), optic nerve disease from 24 (4.5%) to 4 (2.0%), and onchocercal inducible ocular lesions from 31 (5.8%) to 12 (2.0%) were recorded, P < 0.05, (t-test of unpaired data). Cases of glaucoma, 8 (1.4%), and blindness, 6 (1.05%), remained unchanged. Visual acuity ≥6/24 in one or both eyes, 198 (33.45%); cataract, 169 (28.5%); pterygium 157 (26.5%); and acute senilis, 165 (27.9%), were significantly increased and positively correlated with increase in age (R (2) = 0.898 - 0.949). Dissected parous Simulium damnosum caught (n = 222) were without infective third stage larva. Active onchocerciasis transmission seems halted despite varied compliance to long-term ivermectin treatment. We recommend continued surveillance and targeted treatment of controlled and hypoendemic areas.

Nodding syndrome in Mundri county, South Sudan: environmental, nutritional and infectious factors

BACKGROUND

Nodding Syndrome is a seizure disorder of children in Mundri County, Western Equatoria, South Sudan. The disorder is reported to be spreading in South Sudan and northern Uganda.

OBJECTIVE

To describe environmental, nutritional, infectious, and other factors that existed before and during the de novo 1991 appearance and subsequent increase in cases through 2001.

METHODS

Household surveys, informant interviews, and case-control studies conducted in Lui town and Amadi village in 2001-2002 were supplemented in 2012 by informant interviews in Lui and Juba, South Sudan.

RESULTS

Nodding Syndrome was associated with Onchocerca volvulus and Mansonella perstans infections, with food use of a variety of sorghum (serena) introduced as part of an emergency relief program, and was inversely associated with a history of measles infection. There was no evidence to suggest exposure to a manmade neurotoxic pollutant or chemical agent, other than chemically dressed seed intended for planting but used for food. Food use of cyanogenic plants was documented, and exposure to fungal contaminants could not be excluded.

CONCLUSION

Nodding Syndrome in South Sudan has an unknown etiology. Further research is recommended on the association of Nodding Syndrome with onchocerciasis/mansonelliasis and neurotoxins in plant materials used for food.

Uncertainty surrounding projections of the long-term impact of ivermectin treatment on human onchocerciasis

Background

Recent studies in Mali, Nigeria, and Senegal have indicated that annual (or biannual) ivermectin distribution may lead to local elimination of human onchocerciasis in certain African foci. Modelling-based projections have been used to estimate the required duration of ivermectin distribution to reach elimination. A crucial assumption has been that microfilarial production by Onchocerca volvulus is reduced irreversibly by 30–35% with each (annual) ivermectin round. However, other modelling-based analyses suggest that ivermectin may not have such a cumulative effect. Uncertainty in this (biological) and other (programmatic) assumptions would affect projected outcomes of long-term ivermectin treatment.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We modify a deterministic age- and sex-structured onchocerciasis transmission model, parameterised for savannah O. volvulus–Simulium damnosum, to explore the impact of assumptions regarding the effect of ivermectin on worm fertility and the patterns of treatment coverage compliance, and frequency on projections of parasitological outcomes due to long-term, mass ivermectin administration in hyperendemic areas. The projected impact of ivermectin distribution on onchocerciasis and the benefits of switching from annual to biannual distribution are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the drug's effect on worm fertility and on treatment compliance. If ivermectin does not have a cumulative impact on microfilarial production, elimination of onchocerciasis in hyperendemic areas may not be feasible with annual ivermectin distribution.

Conclusions/Significance

There is substantial (biological and programmatic) uncertainty surrounding modelling projections of onchocerciasis elimination. These uncertainties need to be acknowledged for mathematical models to inform control policy reliably. Further research is needed to elucidate the effect of ivermectin on O. volvulus reproductive biology and quantify the patterns of coverage and compliance in treated communities.

Studies in Mali, Nigeria, and Senegal suggest that, in some settings, it is possible to eliminate onchocerciasis after 15–17 years of ivermectin distribution. Computer models have been used to estimate the required duration of ivermectin distribution to reach elimination. Some models assume that annual ivermectin treatment reduces the fertility of the causing parasite, Onchocerca volvulus, by 30–35% each time the drug is taken. Other analyses suggest that ivermectin may not have such an effect. We explore how assumptions regarding: a) treatment effects on microfilarial production by female worms (fertility), b) proportion of people who receive the drug (coverage), c) proportion of people who adhere to treatment (compliance), and d) whether people are treated once or twice per year (frequency) affect temporal projections of infection load and prevalence in highly endemic African savannah settings. We find that if treatment does not affect parasite fertility cumulatively, elimination of onchocerciasis in highly endemic areas of Africa may not be feasible with annual ivermectin distribution alone. If two areas have equal coverage but dissimilar compliance, they may experience very different infection load, prevalence and persistence trends. Projections such as these are crucial to help onchocerciasis control programmes to plan elimination strategies effectively.

Dynamics of Onchocerca volvulus microfilarial densities after ivermectin treatment in an ivermectin-naïve and a multiply treated population from Cameroon

Background/Objective

Ivermectin has been the keystone of onchocerciasis control for the last 25 years. Sub-optimal responses to the drug have been reported in Ghanaian communities under long-term treatment. We assessed, in two Cameroonian foci, whether the microfilaricidal and/or embryostatic effects of ivermectin on Onchocerca volvulus have been altered after several years of drug pressure.

Methods

We compared the dynamics of O. volvulus skin microfilarial densities after ivermectin treatment in two cohorts with contrasting exposure to this drug: one received repeated treatment for 13 years whereas the other had no history of large-scale treatments (referred to as controls). Microfilarial densities were assessed 15, 80 and 180 days after ivermectin in 122 multiply treated and 127 ivermectin-naïve individuals. Comparisons were adjusted for individual factors related to microfilarial density: age and number of nodules.

Findings

Two weeks post ivermectin, microfilarial density dropped equally (98% reduction) in the ivermectin-naïve and multiply treated groups. Between 15 and 180 days post ivermectin, the proportion of individuals with skin microfilariae doubled (from 30.8% to 67.8%) in controls and quadrupled (from 19.8% to 76.9%) in multiply treated individuals but the mean densities remained low in both sites. In fact, between 15 and 80 days, the repopulation rate was significantly higher in the multiply treated individuals than in the controls but no such difference was demonstrated when extending the follow-up to 180 days. The repopulation rate by microfilariae was associated with host factors: negatively with age and positively with the number of nodules.

Conclusion

These observations may indicate that the worms from the multi-treated area recover mf productivity earlier but would be less productive than the worms from the ivermectin-naïve area between 80 and 180 days after ivermectin. Moreover, they do not support the operation of a strong cumulative effect of repeated treatments on the fecundity of female worms as previously described.

Millions of Africans and thousands of Latin Americans are infected with Onchocerca volvulus, the filarial worm responsible for onchocerciasis. Since the mid-1990s, control programs rely on annual or six-monthly community treatments with the only safe drug available, ivermectin. If sustained for another 10–15 years, this strategy could lead to elimination of onchocerciasis. Unfortunately, there have been reports of low response to the drug in Ghanaian communities under long-term treatment. Here, we compared the response of O. volvulus to ivermectin between a Cameroonian population repeatedly treated and an ivermectin-naïve population. Skin parasite density was assessed before and 15, 80 and 180 days after treatment. Parasite density dropped equally in the two groups (∼98% reduction) by 15 days, in accordance with the expected effect of ivermectin at this time point. In the multi-treated subjects, the repopulation rate of the skin by microfilariae was higher than in the controls from 15 to 80 days after treatment but the microfilarial levels reached similar levels six months after treatment in the two groups. Thirteen years of large-scale treatments may have selected worms less sensitive to the drug. In addition, those treatments had little if any cumulative effect on skin parasite repopulation after an additional treatment.

African Programme For Onchocerciasis Control 1995-2015: model-estimated health impact and cost

BACKGROUND

Onchocerciasis causes a considerable disease burden in Africa, mainly through skin and eye disease. Since 1995, the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has coordinated annual mass treatment with ivermectin in 16 countries. In this study, we estimate the health impact of APOC and the associated costs from a program perspective up to 2010 and provide expected trends up to 2015.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

With data on pre-control prevalence of infection and population coverage of mass treatment, we simulated trends in infection, blindness, visual impairment, and severe itch using the micro-simulation model ONCHOSIM, and estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to onchocerciasis. We assessed financial costs for APOC, beneficiary governments, and non-governmental development organizations, excluding cost of donated drugs. We estimated that between 1995 and 2010, mass treatment with ivermectin averted 8.2 million DALYs due to onchocerciasis in APOC areas, at a nominal cost of about US$257 million. We expect that APOC will avert another 9.2 million DALYs between 2011 and 2015, at a nominal cost of US$221 million.

CONCLUSIONS

Our simulations suggest that APOC has had a remarkable impact on population health in Africa between 1995 and 2010. This health impact is predicted to double during the subsequent five years of the program, through to 2015. APOC is a highly cost-effective public health program. Given the anticipated elimination of onchocerciasis from some APOC areas, we expect even more health gains and a more favorable cost-effectiveness of mass treatment with ivermectin in the near future.

Genotypic analysis of β-tubulin in Onchocerca volvulus from communities and individuals showing poor parasitological response to ivermectin treatment

Ivermectin (IVM) has been in operational use for the control of onchocerciasis for two decades and remains the only drug of choice. To investigate the parasitological responses and genetic profile of Onchocerca volvulus, we carried out a 21 month epidemiological study to determine the response of the parasite to IVM in 10 Ghanaian endemic communities. Onchocerca nodules were surgically removed from patients in three IVM response categories (good, intermediate and poor) and one IVM naïve community. DNA from adult worms was analyzed to determine any association between genotype and IVM response phenotypic. Embryogramme analysis showed significantly higher reproductive activity in worms from poor response communities, which had up to 41% of females with live stretched microfilaria (mf) in utero, despite IVM treatment, compared with good response communities, which had no intra-uterine stretched mf. β-tubulin isotype 1 gene has been shown to be linked to IVM selection in O. volvulus and also known to be associated with IVM resistance in veterinary nematodes. We have genotyped the full length genomic DNA sequence of the β-tubulin gene from 127 adult worms obtained from the four community categories. We found SNPs at 24 sites over the entire 3696 bp. Eight of the SNPs occurred at significantly higher (p < 0.05) frequencies in the poor response communities compared with the good response communities and the IVM naïve community. Phenotypic and genotypic analyses show that IVM resistance has been selected and the genotype (1183GG/1188CC/1308TT/1545GG) was strongly associated with the resistance phenotype. Since the region in the β-tubulin gene where these four SNPs occur is within 362 bp, it is feasible to develop a genetic marker for the early detection of IVM resistance.

Phenotypic evidence of emerging ivermectin resistance in Onchocerca volvulus

Background

Ivermectin (IVM) has been used in Ghana for over two decades for onchocerciasis control. In recent years there have been reports of persistent microfilaridermias despite multiple treatments. This has necessitated a reexamination of its microfilaricidal and suppressive effects on reproduction in the adult female Onchocerca volvulus. In an initial study, we demonstrated the continued potent microfilaricidal effect of IVM. However, we also found communities in which the skin microfilarial repopulation rates at days 90 and 180 were much higher than expected. In this follow up study we have investigated the reproductive response of female worms to multiple treatments with IVM.

Methods and Findings

The parasitological responses to IVM in two hundred and sixty-eight microfilaridermic subjects from nine communities that had received 10 to 19 annual doses of IVM treatment and one pre-study IVM-naïve community were followed. Skin snips were taken 364 days after the initial IVM treatment during the study to determine the microfilaria (mf) recovery rate. Nodules were excised and skin snips taken 90 days following a second study IVM treatment. Nodule and worm density and the reproductive status of female worms were determined. On the basis of skin mf repopulation and skin mf recovery rates we defined three categories of response—good, intermediate and poor—and also determined that approximately 25% of subjects in the study carried adult female worms that responded suboptimally to IVM. Stratification of the female worms by morphological age and microfilarial content showed that almost 90% of the worms were older or middle aged and that most of the mf were produced by the middle aged and older worms previously exposed to multiple treatments with little contribution from young worms derived from ongoing transmission.

Conclusions

The results confirm that in some communities adult female worms were non-responsive or resistant to the anti-fecundity effects of multiple treatments with IVM. A scheme of the varied responses of the adult female worm to multiple treatments is proposed.

Onchocerciasis, commonly known as river blindness, is caused by the filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus and is transmitted by a blackfly vector. Over 37 million people are thought to be infected, with over 90 million at risk. Infection predominantly occurs in sub-Saharan Africa. Foci also exist in the Arabian Peninsula and Central and South America. Ivermectin, the sole pharmaceutical available for mass chemotherapy, has been used on a community basis for annual or semi-annual treatment since 1987. Multiple treatments with ivermectin kill the microfilariae that are responsible for the pathology of onchocerciasis. More importantly, ivermectin suppresses the reproductive activity of the adult female worms, thus delaying or preventing the repopulation of the skin with new microfilariae and thereby reducing transmission. This study extends earlier reports of sub-optimal responses to ivermectin by examining repopulation levels of microfilaria one year after treatment, worm burdens per nodule, the age structure of adult female worms recovered from nodules, and the reproductive status of adult female worms 90 days after ivermectin treatment. In some communities which have shown a pattern of sub-optimal response to treatment, the data is consistent with an emergence of ivermectin non response or resistance manifested by a loss of the effect of ivermectin on the suppression of parasite reproduction.

Ivermectin, 'wonder drug' from Japan: the human use perspective

Discovered in the late-1970s, the pioneering drug ivermectin, a dihydro derivative of avermectin--originating solely from a single microorganism isolated at the Kitasato Institute, Tokyo, Japan from Japanese soil--has had an immeasurably beneficial impact in improving the lives and welfare of billions of people throughout the world. Originally introduced as a veterinary drug, it kills a wide range of internal and external parasites in commercial livestock and companion animals. It was quickly discovered to be ideal in combating two of the world's most devastating and disfiguring diseases which have plagued the world's poor throughout the tropics for centuries. It is now being used free-of-charge as the sole tool in campaigns to eliminate both diseases globally. It has also been used to successfully overcome several other human diseases and new uses for it are continually being found. This paper looks in depth at the events surrounding ivermectin's passage from being a huge success in Animal Health into its widespread use in humans, a development which has led many to describe it as a "wonder" drug.

Identifying sub-optimal responses to ivermectin in the treatment of River Blindness

Identification of drug resistance before it becomes a public health concern requires a clear distinction between what constitutes a normal and a suboptimal treatment response. A novel method of analyzing drug efficacy studies in human helminthiases is proposed and used to investigate recent claims of atypical responses to ivermectin in the treatment of River Blindness. The variability in the rate at which Onchocerca volvulus microfilariae repopulate host's skin following ivermectin treatment is quantified using an individual-based onchocerciasis mathematical model. The model estimates a single skin repopulation rate for every host sampled, allowing reports of suboptimal responses to be statistically compared with responses from populations with no prior exposure to ivermectin. Statistically faster rates of skin repopulation were observed in 3 Ghanaian villages (treated 12-17 times), despite the wide variability in repopulation rates observed in ivermectin-naïve populations. Another village previously thought to have high rates of skin repopulation was shown to be indistinguishable from the normal treatment response. The model is used to generate testable hypotheses to identify whether atypical rates of skin repopulation by microfilariae could result from low treatment coverage alone or provide evidence of decreased ivermectin efficacy. Further work linking phenotypic poor responses to treatment with parasite molecular genetics markers will be required to confirm drug resistance. Limitations of the skin-snipping method for estimating parasite load indicates that changes in the distribution of microfilarial repopulation rates, rather than their absolute values, maybe a more sensitive indicator of emerging ivermectin resistance.

Feasibility of onchocerciasis elimination with ivermectin treatment in endemic foci in Africa: first evidence from studies in Mali and Senegal

Background

Mass treatment with ivermectin is a proven strategy for controlling onchocerciasis as a public health problem, but it is not known if it can also interrupt transmission and eliminate the parasite in endemic foci in Africa where vectors are highly efficient. A longitudinal study was undertaken in three hyperendemic foci in Mali and Senegal with 15 to 17 years of annual or six-monthly ivermectin treatment in order to assess residual levels of infection and transmission and test whether ivermectin treatment could be safely stopped in the study areas.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Skin snip surveys were undertaken in 126 villages, and 17,801 people were examined. The prevalence of microfilaridermia was <1% in all three foci. A total of 157,500 blackflies were collected and analyzed for the presence of Onchocerca volvulus larvae using a specific DNA probe, and vector infectivity rates were all below 0.5 infective flies per 1,000 flies. Except for a subsection of one focus, all infection and transmission indicators were below postulated thresholds for elimination. Treatment was therefore stopped in test areas of 5 to 8 villages in each focus. Evaluations 16 to 22 months after the last treatment in the test areas involved examination of 2,283 people using the skin snip method and a DEC patch test, and analysis of 123,000 black flies. No infected persons and no infected blackflies were detected in the test areas, and vector infectivity rates in other catching points were <0.2 infective flies per 1,000.

Conclusion/Significance

This study has provided the first empirical evidence that elimination of onchocerciasis with ivermectin treatment is feasible in some endemic foci in Africa. Although further studies are needed to determine to what extent these findings can be extrapolated to other endemic areas in Africa, the principle of elimination has been established. The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control has adopted an additional objective to assess progress towards elimination endpoints in all onchocerciasis control projects and to guide countries on cessation of treatment where feasible.

The control of onchocerciasis, or river blindness, is based on annual or six-monthly ivermectin treatment of populations at risk. This has been effective in controlling the disease as a public health problem, but it is not known whether it can also eliminate infection and transmission to the extent that treatment can be safely stopped. Many doubt that this is feasible in Africa. A study was undertaken in three hyperendemic onchocerciasis foci in Mali and Senegal where treatment has been given for 15 to 17 years. The results showed that only few infections remained in the human population and that transmission levels were everywhere below postulated thresholds for elimination. Treatment was subsequently stopped in test areas in each focus, and follow-up evaluations did not detect any recrudescence of infection or transmission. Hence, the study has provided the first evidence that onchocerciasis elimination is feasible with ivermectin treatment in some endemic foci in Africa. Although further studies are needed to determine to what extent these findings can be extrapolated to other areas in Africa, the principle of onchocerciasis elimination with ivermectin treatment has been established.

Successful interruption of transmission of Onchocerca volvulus in the Escuintla-Guatemala focus, Guatemala

BACKGROUND

Elimination of onchocerciasis (river blindness) through mass administration of ivermectin in the six countries in Latin America where it is endemic is considered feasible due to the relatively small size and geographic isolation of endemic foci. We evaluated whether transmission of onchocerciasis has been interrupted in the endemic focus of Escuintla-Guatemala in Guatemala, based on World Health Organization criteria for the certification of elimination of onchocerciasis.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We conducted evaluations of ocular morbidity and past exposure to Onchocerca volvulus in the human population, while potential vectors (Simulium ochraceum) were captured and tested for O. volvulus DNA; all of the evaluations were carried out in potentially endemic communities (PEC; those with a history of actual or suspected transmission or those currently under semiannual mass treatment with ivermectin) within the focus. The prevalence of microfilariae in the anterior segment of the eye in 329 individuals (> or =7 years old, resident in the PEC for at least 5 years) was 0% (one-sided 95% confidence interval [CI] 0-0.9%). The prevalence of antibodies to a recombinant O. volvulus antigen (Ov-16) in 6,432 school children (aged 6 to 12 years old) was 0% (one-sided 95% IC 0-0.05%). Out of a total of 14,099 S. ochraceum tested for O. volvulus DNA, none was positive (95% CI 0-0.01%). The seasonal transmission potential was, therefore, 0 infective stage larvae per person per season.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Based on these evaluations, transmission of onchocerciasis in the Escuintla-Guatemala focus has been successfully interrupted. Although this is the second onchocerciasis focus in Latin America to have demonstrated interruption of transmission, it is the first focus with a well-documented history of intense transmission to have eliminated O. volvulus.

Onchocerciasis Control: Vision for the Future from a Ghanian perspective

Since 1987 onchocerciasis control has relied on the donation of ivermectin (Mectizan(R), Merck & Co., Inc.) through the Mectizan Donation Programme. Recently, concern has been raised over the appearance of suboptimal responses to ivermectin in Ghana - highlighting the potential threat of the development of resistance to ivermectin. This report summarises a meeting held in Ghana to set the research agenda for future onchocerciasis control. The aim of this workshop was to define the research priorities for alternative drug and treatment regimes and control strategies to treat populations with existing evidence of suboptimal responsiveness and define research priorities for future control strategies in the event of the development of widespread ivermectin resistance.