National surveillance data on the epidemiology of cholera in Kenya, 1997-2010

A protracted cholera outbreak in Nairobi City County accentuated by mass gathering events, Kenya, 2017

Cholera continues to cause many outbreaks in low and middle-income countries due to inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene services. We describe a protracted cholera outbreak in Nairobi City County, Kenya in 2017. We reviewed the cholera outbreak line lists from Nairobi City County in 2017 to determine its extent and factors associated with death. A suspected case of cholera was any person aged >2 years old who had acute watery diarrhea, nausea, or vomiting, whereas a confirmed case was where Vibrio cholerae was isolated from the stool specimen. We summarized cases using means for continuous variables and proportions for categorical variables. Associations between admission status, sex, age, residence, time to care seeking, and outbreak settings; and cholera associated deaths were assessed using odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI). Of the 2,737 cholera cases reported, we analyzed 2,347 (85.7%) cases including 1,364 (58.1%) outpatients, 1,724 (73.5%) not associated with mass gathering events, 1,356 (57.8%) male and 2,202 (93.8%) aged ≥5 years, and 35 deaths (case fatality rate: 1.5%). Cases were reported from all the Sub Counties of Nairobi City County with an overall county attack rate of 50 per 100,000 people. Vibrio cholerae Ogawa serotype was isolated from 78 (34.8%) of the 224 specimens tested and all isolates were sensitive to tetracycline and levofloxacin but resistant to amikacin. The odds of cholera-related deaths was lower among outpatient cases (aOR: 0.35; [95% CI: 0.17-0.72]), age ≥5 years old (aOR: 0.21 [95% CI: 0.09-0.55]), and mass gathering events (aOR: 0.26 [95% CI: 0.07-0.91]) while threefold higher odds among male (aOR: 3.04 [95% CI: 1.30-7.13]). Nairobi City County experienced a protracted and widespread cholera outbreak with a high case fatality rate in 2017.

New Vibrio cholerae sequences from Eastern and Southern Africa alter our understanding of regional cholera transmission

Despite ongoing containment and vaccination efforts, cholera remains prevalent in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Part of the difficulty in containing cholera comes from our lack of understanding of how it circulates throughout the region. To better characterize regional transmission, we generated and analyzed 118 Vibrio cholerae genomes collected between 2007-2019 from five different countries in Southern and Eastern Africa. We showed that V. cholerae sequencing can be successful from a variety of sample types and filled in spatial and temporal gaps in our understanding of circulating lineages, including providing some of the first sequences from the 2018-2019 outbreaks in Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, and Malawi. Our results present a complex picture of cholera transmission in the region, with multiple lineages found to be co-circulating within several countries. We also find evidence that previously identified sporadic cases may be from larger, undersampled outbreaks, highlighting the need for careful examination of sampling biases and underscoring the need for continued and expanded cholera surveillance across the African continent.

Antibiotic-Resistant Vibrio cholerae O1 and Its SXT Elements Associated with Two Cholera Epidemics in Kenya in 2007 to 2010 and 2015 to 2016

Multidrug-resistant Vibrio cholerae O1 strains have long been observed in Africa, and strains exhibiting new resistance phenotypes have emerged during recent epidemics in Kenya. This study aimed to determine the epidemiological aspects, drug resistance patterns, and genetic elements of V. cholerae O1 strains isolated from two cholera epidemics in Kenya between 2007 and 2010 and between 2015 and 2016. A total of 228 V. cholerae O1 strains, including 226 clinical strains isolated from 13 counties in Kenya during the 2007-2010 and 2015-2016 cholera epidemics and two environmental isolates (from shallow well water and spring water isolates) isolated from Pokot and Kwale Counties, respectively, in 2010 were subjected to biotyping, serotyping, and antimicrobial susceptibility testing, including the detection of antibiotic resistance genes and mobile genetic elements. All V. cholerae isolates were identified as El Tor biotypes and susceptible to ceftriaxone, gentamicin, and ciprofloxacin. The majority of isolates were resistant to trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (94.6%), streptomycin (92.8%), and nalidixic acid (64.5%), while lower resistance was observed against ampicillin (3.6%), amoxicillin (4.2%), chloramphenicol (3.0%), and doxycycline (1.8%). Concurrently, the integrating conjugative (SXT) element was found in 95.5% of the V. cholerae isolates; conversely, class 1, 2, and 3 integrons were absent. Additionally, 64.5% of the isolates exhibited multidrug resistance patterns. Antibiotic-resistant gene clusters suggest that environmental bacteria may act as cassette reservoirs that favor resistant pathogens. On the other hand, the 2015-2016 epidemic strains were found susceptible to most antibiotics except nalidixic acid. This revealed the replacement of multidrug-resistant strains exhibiting new resistance phenotypes that emerged after Kenya's 2007-2010 epidemic. IMPORTANCE Kenya is a country where cholera is endemic; it has experienced three substantial epidemics over the past few decades, but there are limited data on the drug resistance patterns of V. cholerae at the national level. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the antimicrobial susceptibility profiles of V. cholerae O1 strains isolated from two consecutive epidemics and to examine their associated antimicrobial genetic determinants. Our study results revealed two distinct antibiotic resistance trends in two separate epidemics, particularly trends for multidrug-associated mobile genetic elements and chromosomal mutation-oriented resistant strains from the 2007-2010 epidemic. In contrast, only nalidixic acid-associated chromosomal mutated strains were isolated from the 2015-2016 epidemic. This study also found similar patterns of antibiotic resistance in environmental and clinical strains. Continuous monitoring is needed to control emerging multidrug-resistant isolates in the future.

Infection with soil-transmitted helminths and their impact on coinfections

The most important soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) affecting humans are roundworms, whipworms, and hookworms, with a large proportion of the world's population infected with one or more of these intestinal parasites. On top of that, concurrent infections with several viruses, bacteria, protozoa, and other helminths such as trematodes are common in STH-endemic areas. STHs are potent immunomodulators, but knowledge about the effects of STH infection on the direction and extent of coinfections with other pathogens and vice versa is incomplete. By focusing on Kenya, a country where STH infections in humans are widespread, we provide an exemplary overview of the current prevalence of STH and co-occurring infections (e.g. with Human Immunodeficiency Virus, Plasmodium falciparum, Giardia duodenalis and Schistosoma mansoni). Using human data and complemented by experimental studies, we outline the immunomechanistic interactions of coinfections in both acutely STH transmigrated and chronically infected tissues, also highlighting their systemic nature. Depending on the coinfecting pathogen and immunological readout, STH infection may restrain, support, or even override the immune response to another pathogen. Furthermore, the timing of the particular infection and host susceptibility are decisive for the immunopathological consequences. Some examples demonstrated positive outcomes of STH coinfections, where the systemic effects of these helminths mitigate the damage caused by other pathogens. Nevertheless, the data available to date are rather unbalanced, as only a few studies have considered the effects of coinfection on the worm's life cycle and associated host immunity. These interactions are complex and depend largely on the context and biology of the coinfection, which can act in either direction, both to the benefit and detriment of the infected host.

Prioritizing interventions for cholera control in Kenya, 2015-2020

Kenya has experienced cholera outbreaks since 1971, with the most recent wave beginning in late 2014. Between 2015-2020, 32 of 47 counties reported 30,431 suspected cholera cases. The Global Task Force for Cholera Control (GTFCC) developed a Global Roadmap for Ending Cholera by 2030, which emphasizes the need to target multi-sectoral interventions in priority cholera burden hotspots. This study utilizes the GTFCC's hotspot method to identify hotspots in Kenya at the county and sub-county administrative levels from 2015 through 2020. 32 of 47 (68.1%) counties reported cholera cases during this time while only 149 of 301 (49.5%) sub-counties reported cholera cases. The analysis identifies hotspots based on the mean annual incidence (MAI) over the past five-year period and cholera's persistence in the area. Applying a MAI threshold of 90th percentile and the median persistence at both the county and sub-county levels, we identified 13 high risk sub-counties from 8 counties, including the 3 high risk counties of Garissa, Tana River and Wajir. This demonstrates that several sub-counties are high level hotspots while their counties are not. In addition, when cases reported by county versus sub-county hotspot risk are compared, 1.4 million people overlapped in the areas identified as both high-risk county and high-risk sub-county. However, assuming that finer scale data is more accurate, 1.6 million high risk sub-county people would have been misclassified as medium risk with a county-level analysis. Furthermore, an additional 1.6 million people would have been classified as living in high-risk in a county-level analysis when at the sub-county level, they were medium, low or no-risk sub-counties. This results in 3.2 million people being misclassified when county level analysis is utilized rather than a more-focused sub-county level analysis. This analysis highlights the need for more localized risk analyses to target cholera intervention and prevention efforts towards the populations most vulnerable.

The seasonality of cholera in sub-Saharan Africa: a statistical modelling study

Background

Cholera remains a major threat in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where some of the highest case-fatality rates are reported. Knowing in what months and where cholera tends to occur across the continent could aid in improving efforts to eliminate cholera as a public health concern. However, largely due to the absence of unified large-scale datasets, no continent-wide estimates exist. In this study, we aimed to estimate cholera seasonality across SSA and explore the correlation between hydroclimatic variables and cholera seasonality.

Methods

Using the global cholera database of the Global Task Force on Cholera Control, we developed statistical models to synthesise data across spatial and temporal scales to infer the seasonality of excess (defined as incidence higher than the 2010–16 mean incidence rate) suspected cholera occurrence in SSA. We developed a Bayesian statistical model to infer the monthly risk of excess cholera at the first and second administrative levels. Seasonality patterns were then grouped into spatial clusters. Finally, we studied the association between seasonality estimates and hydroclimatic variables (mean monthly fraction of area flooded, mean monthly air temperature, and cumulative monthly precipitation).

Findings

24 (71%) of the 34 countries studied had seasonal patterns of excess cholera risk, corresponding to approximately 86% of the SSA population. 12 (50%) of these 24 countries also had subnational differences in seasonality patterns, with strong differences in seasonality strength between regions. Seasonality patterns clustered into two macroregions (west Africa and the Sahel vs eastern and southern Africa), which were composed of subregional clusters with varying degrees of seasonality. Exploratory association analysis found most consistent and positive correlations between cholera seasonality and precipitation and, to a lesser extent, between cholera seasonality and temperature and flooding.

Interpretation

Widespread cholera seasonality in SSA offers opportunities for intervention planning. Further studies are needed to study the association between cholera and climate.

Funding

US National Aeronautics and Space Administration Applied Sciences Program and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Bio-safety and bio-security: A major global concern for ongoing COVID-19 pandemic

Besides its impacts on governance, economics, human culture, geostrategic partnership and environment, globalization greatly exerted control over science and security policies. Biosecurity is the critical job of efforts, policy and preparation to protect health of human, animal and environmental against any biological threats. With the transition into a global village, the possibility of biosecurity breaches has significantly increased. The COVID-19 pandemic is an example of an infringement on biosecurity that has posed a serious threat to the world. Since the first report on the recognition of COVID-19, a number of governments have taken preventive measures, like; lockdown, screening and early detection of suspected and implementing the required response to protect the loss of life and economy. Unfortunately, some of these measures have only recently been taken in some countries, which have contributed significantly to an increased morbidity and loss of life on a daily basis. In this article, the biological risks affecting human, animal and environmental conditions, biosafety violations and preventive measures have been discussed in order to reduce the outbreak and impacts of a pandemic like COVID-19.

Laboratory and Field Evaluation of the Crystal VC-O1 Cholera Rapid Diagnostic Test

Cholera is a severe acute, highly transmissible diarrheal disease which affects many low- and middle-income countries. Outbreaks of cholera are confirmed using microbiological culture, and additional cases during the outbreak are generally identified based on clinical case definitions, rather than laboratory confirmation. Many low-resource areas where cholera occurs lack the capacity to perform culture in an expeditious manner. A simple, reliable, and low-cost rapid diagnostic test (RDT) would improve identification of cases allowing rapid response to outbreaks. Several commercial RDTs are available for cholera testing with two lines to detect either serotypes O1 and O139; however, issues with sensitivity and specificity have not been optimal with these bivalent tests. Here, we report an evaluation of a new commercially available cholera dipstick test which detects only serotype O1. In both laboratory and field studies in Kenya, we demonstrate high sensitivity (97.5%), specificity (100%), and positive predictive value (100%) of this new RDT targeting only serogroup O1. This is the first field evaluation for the new Crystal VC-O1 RDT; however, with these high-performance metrics, this RDT could significantly improve cholera outbreak detection and improve surveillance for better understanding of cholera disease burden.

A descriptive cross-sectional study of cholera at Kakuma and Kalobeyei refugee camps, Kenya in 2018

Introduction

cholera is a significant public health concern among displaced populations. Oral cholera vaccines are safe and can effectively be used as an adjunct to prevent cholera in settings with limited access to water and sanitation. Results from this study can inform future consideration for cholera vaccination at Kakuma and Kalobeyei.

Methods

a descriptive cross-sectional study of cholera cases at Kakuma refugee camp and Kalobeyei integrated settlement was carried out between May 2017 to May 2018 (one year). Data were extracted from the medical records and line lists at the cholera treatment centres.

Results

the results found 125 clinically suspected and confirmed cholera cases and one related death (CFR 0.8%). The cumulative incidence of all cases was 0.67 (95% CI=0.56-0.80) cases/1000 persons. Incidence of cholera was higher in children under the age of five 0.94(95% CI=0.63-1.36) cases/1000 persons. Children aged <5 years showed 51% increased risk of cholera compared to those aged ≥5 years (RR=1.51; 95% CI=1.00-2.31, p=0.051). Individuals from the Democratic Republic of Congo had nearly 9-fold risk of reporting cholera (RR=8.62; 95% CI=2.55-37.11, p<0.001) while individuals from South Sudan reported 7 times risk of cholera case compared to those from Somalia (RR=7.39; 95% CI=2.78-27.73, p<0.001).

Conclusion

in addition to the improvement of water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH), vaccination could be implemented as a short-medium term measure of preventing cholera outbreaks. Age, country of origin and settlement independently predicted the risk of cholera.

A protracted cholera outbreak among residents in an urban setting, Nairobi county, Kenya, 2015

Introduction

in 2015, a cholera outbreak was confirmed in Nairobi county, Kenya, which we investigated to identify risk factors for infection and recommend control measures.

Methods

we analyzed national cholera surveillance data to describe epidemiological patterns and carried out a case-control study to find reasons for the Nairobi county outbreak. Suspected cholera cases were Nairobi residents aged >2 years with acute watery diarrhea (>4 stools/≤12 hours) and illness onset 1-14 May 2015. Confirmed cases had Vibrio cholerae isolated from stool. Case-patients were frequency-matched to persons without diarrhea (1:2 by age group, residence), interviewed using standardized questionaires. Logistic regression identified factors associated with case status. Household water was analyzed for fecal coliforms and Escherichia coli.

Results

during December 2014-June 2015, 4,218 cholera cases including 282 (6.7%) confirmed cases and 79 deaths (case-fatality rate [CFR] 1.9%) were reported from 14 of 47 Kenyan counties. Nairobi county reported 781 (19.0 %) cases (attack rate, 18/100,000 persons), including 607 (78%) hospitalisations, 20 deaths (CFR 2.6%) and 55 laboratory-confirmed cases (7.0%). Seven (70%) of 10 water samples from communal water points had coliforms; one had Escherichia coli. Factors associated with cholera in Nairobi were drinking untreated water (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 6.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.3-18.8), lacking health education (aOR 2.4, CI 1.1-7.9) and eating food outside home (aOR 2.4, 95% CI 1.2-5.7).

Conclusion

we recommend safe water, health education, avoiding eating foods prepared outside home and improved sanitation in Nairobi county. Adherence to these practices could have prevented this protacted cholera outbreak.

Characterization of Vibrio cholerae O1 isolates responsible for cholera outbreaks in Kenya between 1975 and 2017

Kenya is endemic for cholera with different waves of outbreaks having been documented since 1971. In recent years, new variants of Vibrio cholerae O1 have emerged and have replaced most of the traditional El Tor biotype globally. These strains also appear to have increased virulence, and it is important to describe and document their phenotypic and genotypic traits. This study characterized 146 V. cholerae O1 isolates from cholera outbreaks that occurred in Kenya between 1975 and 2017. Our study reports that the 1975-1984 strains had typical classical or El Tor biotype characters. New variants of V. cholerae O1 having traits of both classical and El Tor biotypes were observed from 2007 with all strains isolated between 2015 and 2017 being sensitive to polymyxin B and carrying both classical and El Tor type ctxB. All strains were resistant to Phage IV and harbored rstR, rtxC, hlyA, rtxA and tcpA genes specific for El Tor biotype indicating that the strains had an El Tor backbone. Pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) genotyping differentiated the isolates into 14 pulsotypes. The clustering also corresponded with the year of isolation signifying that the cholera outbreaks occurred as separate waves of different genetic fingerprints exhibiting different genotypic and phenotypic characteristics. The emergence and prevalence of V. cholerae O1 strains carrying El Tor type and classical type ctxB in Kenya are reported. These strains have replaced the typical El Tor biotype in Kenya and are potentially more virulent and easily transmitted within the population.

Cholera outbreak during a scientific conference at a Nairobi hotel, Kenya 2017

Background

Cholera globally affects 1.3–4.0 million people and causes 21 000–143 000 deaths annually. In June 2017, a cluster of diarrhoeal illness occurred among participants of an international scientific conference at a hotel in Nairobi, Kenya. Culture confirmed Vibrio cholerae, serotype Ogawa. We investigated to assess magnitude, identify likely exposures and suggest control measures.

Methods

We carried out a retrospective cohort study utilizing a structured questionnaire administered by telephone, email and internet-based survey. We calculated food-specific attack rates, risk ratios and in a nested-case control analysis, performed logistic regression to identify exposures independently associated with the outbreak.

Results

We interviewed 249 out of 456 conference attendees (response rate=54.6%). Mean age of respondents was 37.8 years, ±8.3 years, 131 (52.6%) were male. Of all the respondents, 137 (55.0%) were cases. Median incubation time was 35 (11–59) hours. Eating chicken (adjusted OR 2.49, 95% CI, 1.22–5.06) and having eaten lunch on Tuesday (adjusted OR 2.34, 95% CI 1.09–5.05) were independently associated with illness; drinking soda was protective (adjusted OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.07–0.42).

Conclusion

Point source outbreak, associated with chicken eaten at lunch on Tuesday 20th June 2017 occurred. We recommend better collaboration between the food and health sectors in food-borne outbreak investigations.

Inappropriate use of antibiotics for childhood diarrhea case management - Kenya, 2009-2016

BACKGROUND

Antibiotics are essential to treat for many childhood bacterial infections; however inappropriate antibiotic use contributes to antimicrobial resistance. For childhood diarrhea, empiric antibiotic use is recommended for dysentery (bloody diarrhea) for which first-line therapy is ciprofloxacin. We assessed inappropriate antibiotic prescription for childhood diarrhea in two primary healthcare facilities in Kenya.

METHODS

We analyzed data from the Kenya Population Based Infectious Disease Surveillance system in Asembo (rural, malaria-endemic) and Kibera (urban slum, non-malaria-endemic). We examined records of children aged 2-59 months with diarrhea (≥3 loose stools in 24 h) presenting for care from August 21, 2009 to May 3, 2016, excluding visits with non-diarrheal indications for antibiotics. We examined the frequency of antibiotic over-prescription (antibiotic prescription for non-dysentery), under-prescription (no antibiotic prescription for dysentery), and inappropriate antibiotic selection (non-recommended antibiotic). We examined factors associated with over-prescription and under-prescription using multivariate logistic regression with generalized estimating equations.

RESULTS

Of 2808 clinic visits with diarrhea in Asembo, 2685 (95.6%) were non-dysentery visits and antibiotic over-prescription occurred in 52.5%. Of 4697 clinic visits with diarrhea in Kibera, 4518 (96.2%) were non-dysentery and antibiotic over-prescription occurred in 20.0%. Antibiotic under-prescription was noted in 26.8 and 73.7% of dysentery cases in Asembo and Kibera, respectively. Ciprofloxacin was used for 11% of dysentery visits in Asembo and 0% in Kibera. Factors associated with over- and under-prescription varied by site. In Asembo a discharge diagnosis of gastroenteritis was associated with over-prescription (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]:8.23, 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 3.68-18.4), while malaria diagnosis was negatively associated with antibiotic over-prescription (aOR 0.37, 95%CI: 0.25-0.54) but positively associated with antibiotic under-prescription (aOR: 1.82, 95%CI: 1.05-3.13). In Kibera, over-prescription was more common among visits with concurrent signs of respiratory infection (difficulty breathing; aOR: 3.97, 95%CI: 1.28-12.30, cough: aOR: 1.42, 95%CI: 1.06-1.90) and less common among children aged < 1 year (aOR: 0.82, 95%CI: 0.71-0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

Inappropriate antibiotic prescription was common in childhood diarrhea management and efforts are needed to promote rational antibiotic use. Interventions to improve antibiotic use for diarrhea should consider the influence of malaria diagnosis on clinical decision-making and address both over-prescription, under-prescription, and inappropriate antibiotic selection.

Relationship between Flooding and Out Break of Infectious Diseasesin Kenya: A Review of the Literature

Flooding can potentially increase the spread of infectious diseases. To enhance good understanding of the health consequences of flooding and facilitate planning for mitigation strategies, deeper consideration of the relationship between flooding and out-break of infectious diseases is required. This paper examines the relationship between occurrence of floods in Kenya and outbreak of infectious diseases and possible interventions. This review intended to build up the quality and comprehensiveness of evidence on infectious diseases arising after flooding incidence in Kenya. An extensive literature review was conducted in 2017, and published literature from 2000 to 2017 was retrieved. This review suggests that infectious disease outbreaks such as waterborne, rodent-borne, and vector-borne diseases have been associated with flooding in Kenya. But there is need for more good quality epidemiological data to cement the evidence. Comprehensive surveillance and risk assessment, early warning systems, emergency planning, and well-coordinated collaborations are essential in reducing future vulnerability to infectious diseases following flooding.

An outbreak of cholera in western Kenya, 2015: a case control study

Introduction

in February 2015, an outbreak of acute watery diarrhea was reported in two sub counties in western Kenya. Vibrio cholerae 01 serotype Ogawa was isolated from 26 cases and from water samples collected from a river mainly used by residents of the two sub-counties for domestic purposes. We carried out an investigation to determine factors associated with the outbreak.

Methods

we conducted a frequency matched case control study in the community. We defined cases as episodes of watery diarrhea (at least three motions in 24 hours) in persons ≥ 2 years who were residents of Rongo or Ndhiwa sub-counties from January 23-February 25, 2015. Cases were systematically recruited from a cholera line list and matched to two controls (persons without diarrhea since January 23, 2015) by age category and residence. A structured questionnaire was administered to evaluate exposures in cases and controls and multivariable logistic regression done to determine independent factors associated with the outbreak.

Results

we recruited 52 cases and 104 controls. Females constituted 61% (95/156) of all participants. Overall latrine coverage was 58% (90/156). Latrine coverage was 44% (23/52) for cases and 64% (67/104) for controls. Having no latrine at home (aOR = 10.9; 95% CI: 3.02-39.21), practicing communal hand washing in a basin (aOR = 6.5; 95% CI: 2.30-18.11) and vending of food as an occupation (aOR = 3.4; 95% CI: 1.06-10.74) were independently associated with the outbreak.

Conclusion

poor latrine coverage and personal hygiene practices were identified as the main drivers of the outbreak. We recommended improved public health education on latrine usage and promotion of hand washing with soap and water in the community.

Factors associated with cholera in Kenya, 2008-2013

INTRODUCTION

Kenya experienced widespread cholera outbreaks in 1997-1999 and 2007-2010. The re-emergence of cholera in Kenya in 2015 indicates that cholera remains a public health threat. Understanding past outbreaks is important for preventing future outbreaks. This study investigated the relationship between cholera occurrence in Kenya and various environmental and demographic factors related to water, sanitation, socio-economic status, education, urbanization and availability of health facilities during the time period 2008-2013.

METHODS

The primary outcome analyzed was the number of cholera cases at the district level, obtained from the Kenya Ministry of Health's national cholera surveillance records. Values of independent variables were obtained from the 2009 Kenya Population and Housing Census and other national surveys. The data were analyzed using a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis indicated that the risk of cholera was associated with open defecation, use of unimproved water sources, poverty headcount ratio and the number of health facilities per 100,000 population (p < 0.05). No statistically significant association was found between cholera occurrence and education, percentage of population living in urban areas or population density.

CONCLUSION

The Sustainable Development Goals and Kenya's blueprint for development, Kenya Vision 2030, call for access to sanitation facilities and clean water for all by 2030. Kenya has made important economic strides in recent years but continues to be affected by diseases like cholera that are associated with low socio-economic status. Further expansion of access to sanitation facilities and clean water is necessary for preventing cholera in Kenya.

Cholera Incidence and Mortality in Sub-Saharan African Sites during Multi-country Surveillance

BACKGROUND

Cholera burden in Africa remains unknown, often because of weak national surveillance systems. We analyzed data from the African Cholera Surveillance Network (www.africhol.org).

METHODS/ PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

During June 2011-December 2013, we conducted enhanced surveillance in seven zones and four outbreak sites in Togo, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Guinea, Uganda, Mozambique and Cote d'Ivoire. All health facilities treating cholera cases were included. Cholera incidences were calculated using culture-confirmed cholera cases and culture-confirmed cholera cases corrected for lack of culture testing usually due to overwhelmed health systems and imperfect test sensitivity. Of 13,377 reported suspected cases, 34% occurred in Conakry, Guinea, 47% in Goma, DRC, and 19% in the remaining sites. From 0-40% of suspected cases were aged under five years and from 0.3-86% had rice water stools. Within surveillance zones, 0-37% of suspected cases had confirmed cholera compared to 27-38% during outbreaks. Annual confirmed incidence per 10,000 population was <0.5 in surveillance zones, except Goma where it was 4.6. Goma and Conakry had corrected incidences of 20.2 and 5.8 respectively, while the other zones a median of 0.3. During outbreaks, corrected incidence varied from 2.6 to 13.0. Case fatality ratios ranged from 0-10% (median, 1%) by country.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Across different African epidemiological contexts, substantial variation occurred in cholera incidence, age distribution, clinical presentation, culture confirmation, and testing frequency. These results can help guide preventive activities, including vaccine use.

The usefulness of school-based syndromic surveillance for detecting malaria epidemics: experiences from a pilot project in Ethiopia

Background

Syndromic surveillance is a supplementary approach to routine surveillance, using pre-diagnostic and non-clinical surrogate data to identify possible infectious disease outbreaks. To date, syndromic surveillance has primarily been used in high-income countries for diseases such as influenza -- however, the approach may also be relevant to resource-poor settings. This study investigated the potential for monitoring school absenteeism and febrile illness, as part of a school-based surveillance system to identify localised malaria epidemics in Ethiopia.

Methods

Repeated cross-sectional school- and community-based surveys were conducted in six epidemic-prone districts in southern Ethiopia during the 2012 minor malaria transmission season to characterise prospective surrogate and syndromic indicators of malaria burden. Changes in these indicators over the transmission season were compared to standard indicators of malaria (clinical and confirmed cases) at proximal health facilities. Subsequently, two pilot surveillance systems were implemented, each at ten sites throughout the peak transmission season. Indicators piloted were school attendance recorded by teachers, or child-reported recent absenteeism from school and reported febrile illness.

Results

Lack of seasonal increase in malaria burden limited the ability to evaluate sensitivity of the piloted syndromic surveillance systems compared to existing surveillance at health facilities. Weekly absenteeism was easily calculated by school staff using existing attendance registers, while syndromic indicators were more challenging to collect weekly from schoolchildren. In this setting, enrolment of school-aged children was found to be low, at 54 %. Non-enrolment was associated with low household wealth, lack of parental education, household size, and distance from school.

Conclusions

School absenteeism is a plausible simple indicator of unusual health events within a community, such as malaria epidemics, but the sensitivity of an absenteeism-based surveillance system to detect epidemics could not be rigorously evaluated in this study. Further piloting during a demonstrated increase in malaria transmission within a community is recommended.

A rapid assessment of drinking water quality in informal settlements after a cholera outbreak in Nairobi, Kenya

Populations living in informal settlements with inadequate water and sanitation infrastructure are at risk of epidemic disease. In 2010, we conducted 398 household surveys in two informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya with isolated cholera cases. We tested source and household water for free chlorine residual (FCR) and Escherichia coli in approximately 200 households. International guidelines are ≥0.5 mg/L FCR at source, ≥0.2 mg/L at household, and <1 E. coli/100 mL. In these two settlements, 82% and 38% of water sources met FCR guidelines; and 7% and 8% were contaminated with E. coli, respectively. In household stored water, 82% and 35% met FCR guidelines and 11% and 32% were contaminated with E. coli, respectively. Source water FCR≥0.5 mg/L (p=0.003) and reported purchase of a household water treatment product (p=0.002) were associated with increases in likelihood that household stored water had ≥0.2 mg/L FCR, which was associated with a lower likelihood of E. coli contamination (p<0.001). These results challenge the assumption that water quality in informal settlements is universally poor and the route of disease transmission, and highlight that providing centralized water with ≥0.5 mg/L FCR or (if not feasible) household water treatment technologies reduces the risk of waterborne cholera transmission in informal settlements.

Epidemiology of cholera in the Philippines

Background

Despite being a cholera-endemic country, data on cholera in the Philippines remain sparse. Knowing the areas where cholera is known to occur and the factors that lead to its occurrence will assist in planning preventive measures and disaster mitigation.

Methods

Using sentinel surveillance data, PubMed and ProMED searches covering information from 2008–2013 and event-based surveillance reports from 2010–2013, we assessed the epidemiology of cholera in the Philippines. Using spatial log regression, we assessed the role of water, sanitation and population density on the incidence of cholera.

Results and Discussion

We identified 12 articles from ProMED and none from PubMed that reported on cholera in the Philippines from 2008 to 2013. Data from ProMed and surveillance revealed 42,071 suspected and confirmed cholera cases reported from 2008 to 2013, among which only 5,006 were confirmed. 38 (47%) of 81 provinces and metropolitan regions reported at least one confirmed case of cholera and 32 (40%) reported at least one suspected case. The overall case fatality ratio in sentinel sites was 0.62%, but was 2% in outbreaks. All age groups were affected. Using both confirmed and suspected cholera cases, the average annual incidence in 2010–2013 was 9.1 per 100,000 population. Poor access to improved sanitation was consistently associated with higher cholera incidence. Paradoxically, access to improved water sources was associated with higher cholera incidence using both suspected and confirmed cholera data sources. This finding may have been due to the breakdown in the infrastructure and non-chlorination of water supplies, emphasizing the need to maintain public water systems.

Conclusion

Our findings confirm that cholera affects a large proportion of the provinces in the country. Identifying areas most at risk for cholera will support the development and implementation of policies to minimize the morbidity and mortality due to this disease.

Cholera has been increasingly reported in the past decade. It is most feared because of its tendency to spread rapidly resulting in deaths in a short time, if appropriate treatment is not provided. For fear of trade and travel sanctions, countries were disinclined to report cholera, unless large outbreaks ensued. Although countries in Asia have been reporting cholera, it is believed that more cases are not being identified and instead being reported as acute watery diarrhea. Cholera is endemic in the Philippines however data on cholera in the country remained sparse, until 2008 when surveillance was strengthened. From 2008 to 2013, 42,071 suspected and confirmed cholera cases were reported in 87% of provinces and metropolitan areas in the country, confirming the endemicity of cholera in the Philippines. Poor access to improved sanitation was associated with cholera. On the other hand despite access to improved water sources, cholera remains to be seen. The latter is most probably due to the breakdown and non-chlorination of water systems. We identified areas where cholera has been known to occur in the Philippines, this will assist in the development and implementation of policies to minimize the morbidity and mortality due to this disease.

Rotavirus enteritis in Dadaab refugee camps: implications for immunization programs in Kenya and Resettlement Countries

The section listed above, written by members of the CDC's Division of Global Migration and Quarantine and focusing on globally mobile populations and infectious disease outbreaks, is freely available online only, in this issue of Clinical Infectious Diseases at (http://cid.oxfordjournals.org ).

Cholera outbreaks in Africa

During the current seventh cholera pandemic, Africa bore the major brunt of global disease burden. More than 40 years after its resurgence in Africa in 1970, cholera remains a grave public health problem, characterized by large disease burden, frequent outbreaks, persistent endemicity, and high CFRs, particularly in the region of the central African Great Lakes which might act as reservoirs for cholera. There, cases occur year round with a rise in incidence during the rainy season. Elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa, cholera occurs mostly in outbreaks of varying size with a constant threat of widespread epidemics. Between 1970 and 2011, African countries reported 3,221,050 suspected cholera cases to the World Health Organization, representing 46 % of all cases reported globally. Excluding the Haitian epidemic, sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 86 % of reported cases and 99 % of deaths worldwide in 2011. The number of cholera cases is possibly much higher than what is reported to the WHO due to the variation in modalities, completeness, and case definition of national cholera data. One source on country specific incidence rates for Africa, adjusting for underreporting, estimates 1,341,080 cases and 160,930 deaths (52.6 % of 2,548,227 estimated cases and 79.6 % of 209,216 estimated deaths worldwide). Another estimates 1,411,453 cases and 53,632 deaths per year, respectively (50 % of 2,836,669 estimated cases and 58.6 % of 91,490 estimated deaths worldwide). Within Africa, half of all cases between 1970 and 2011 were notified from only seven countries: Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Nigeria, Somalia, Tanzania, and South Africa. In contrast to a global trend of decreasing case fatality ratios (CFRs), CFRs have remained stable in Africa at approximately 2 %. Early propagation of cholera outbreaks depends largely on the extent of individual bacterial shedding, host and organism characteristics, the likelihood of people coming into contact with an infectious dose of Vibrio cholerae and on the virulence of the implicated strain. Cholera transmission can then be amplified by several factors including contamination of human water- or food sources; climate and extreme weather events; political and economic crises; high population density combined with poor quality informal housing and poor hygiene practices; spread beyond a local community through human travel and animals, e.g., water birds. At an individual level, cholera risk may increase with decreasing immunity and hypochlorhydria, such as that induced by Helicobacter pylori infection, which is endemic in much of Africa, and may increase individual susceptibility and cholera incidence. Since contaminated water is the main vehicle for the spread of cholera, the obvious long-term solution to eradicate the disease is the provision of safe water to all African populations. This requires considerable human and financial resources and time. In the short and medium term, vaccination may help to prevent and control the spread of cholera outbreaks. Regardless of the intervention, further understanding of cholera biology and epidemiology is essential to identify populations and areas at increased risk and thus ensure the most efficient use of scarce resources for the prevention and control of cholera.