Comparison of Strategies and Incidence Thresholds for Vi Conjugate Vaccines Against Typhoid Fever: A Cost-effectiveness Modeling Study

Changes in enteric fever trends during the COVID-19 pandemic from the Surveillance for Enteric Fever in Asia Project: a cross-sectional study

Background

The Surveillance for Enteric Fever in Asia Project (SEAP) conducted blood culture surveillance for Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (S. Typhi) and Paratyphi (S. Paratyphi) to provide an evidence base for prevention and control measures in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan.

Methods

From October 2020 to September 2022, we conducted prospective clinical surveillance and retrospective laboratory surveillance at health facilities in Dhaka, Bangladesh; Kathmandu and Kavrepalanchok, Nepal; and Karachi, Pakistan. Patients were eligible if they were outpatients with three or more days of fever in the last week. In Nepal and Pakistan, inpatients were eligible if they had suspected or confirmed enteric fever; in Bangladesh, only inpatients with confirmed enteric fever were enrolled. Patients with blood culture-confirmed enteric fever identified by hospital laboratories and laboratory network sites were also enrolled. Patients completed interviews and medical records were reviewed and abstracted. All enrolled patients had blood cultures performed. Antibiograms were performed to characterize drug sensitivity. We summarized the data descriptively.

Findings

A total of 17,593 patients were enrolled from 19 facilities. Of these, 8410 patients had culture-confirmed enteric fever. Case counts in all countries decreased in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, but increased over time in Bangladesh and Pakistan. Case counts remained low throughout the study period in Nepal. In all countries, typhoid was more common than paratyphoid; the proportion of paratyphoid cases ranged from 8.4% in Pakistan to 16% in Nepal. Extensively drug-resistant typhoid was common in Pakistan (69%), but was not detected in Bangladesh or Nepal.

Interpretation

Cases of enteric fever decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic, though it is not clear how much of this decrease relates to true changes in transmission versus health-seeking behavior.

Funding

This project was funded by the Gates Foundation through INV-008335.

Effects of household concrete floors on maternal and child health: the CRADLE trial - a randomised controlled trial protocol

INTRODUCTION

Early life soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infection and diarrhoea are associated with growth faltering, anaemia, impaired child development and mortality. Exposure to faecally contaminated soil inside the home may be a key contributor to enteric infections, and a large fraction of rural homes in low-income countries have soil floors. The objective of this study is to measure the effect of installing concrete floors in homes with soil floors on child STH infection and other maternal and child health outcomes in rural Bangladesh.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The Cement-based flooRs AnD chiLd hEalth trial is an individually randomised trial in Sirajganj and Tangail districts, Bangladesh. Households with a pregnant woman, a soil floor, walls that are not made of mud and no plan to relocate for 3 years will be eligible. We will randomise 800 households to intervention or control (1:1) within geographical blocks of 10 households to account for strong geographical clustering of enteric infection. Laboratory staff and data analysts will be blinded; participants will be unblinded. We will instal concrete floors when the birth cohort is in utero and measure outcomes at child ages 3, 6, 12, 18 and 24 months. The primary outcome is prevalence of any STH infection (Ascaris lumbricoides, Necator americanus or Trichuris trichiura) detected by quantitative PCR at 6, 12, 18 or 24 months follow-up in the birth cohort. Secondary outcomes include household floor and child hand contamination with Escherichia coli, extended-spectrum beta-lactamase producing E. coli and STH DNA; child diarrhoea, growth and cognitive development; and maternal stress and depression.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Study protocols have been approved by institutional review boards at Stanford University and the International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh. We will report findings on ClinicalTrials.gov, in peer-reviewed publications and in stakeholder workshops in Bangladesh.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05372068.

Effects of household concrete floors on maternal and child health - the CRADLE trial: a randomised controlled trial protocol

Introduction

Early life soil-transmitted helminth infection and diarrhea are associated with growth faltering, anemia, impaired child development, and mortality. Exposure to fecally contaminated soil inside the home may be a key contributor to enteric infections, and a large fraction of rural homes in low-income countries have soil floors. The objective of this study is to measure the effect of installing concrete floors in homes with soil floors on child soil-transmitted helminth infection and other maternal and child health outcomes in rural Bangladesh.

Methods and analysis

The Cement-based flooRs AnD chiLd hEalth (CRADLE) trial is an individually randomised trial in Sirajganj and Tangail districts, Bangladesh. Households with a pregnant woman, a soil floor, walls that are not made of mud will be eligible, and no plan to relocate for 3 years. We will randomise 800 households to intervention or control (1:1) within geographic blocks of 10 households to account for strong geographic clustering of enteric infection. Laboratory staff and data analysts will be blinded; participants will be unblinded. We will install concrete floors when the birth cohort is in utero and measure outcomes at child ages 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. The primary outcome is prevalence of any soil-transmitted helminth infection (Ascaris lumbricoides, Necator americanus, or Trichuris trichiura) detected by qPCR at 6, 12, 18, or 24 months follow-up in the birth cohort. Secondary outcomes include household floor and child hand contamination with E. coli, extended-spectrum beta-lactamase producing E. coli, and soil-transmitted helminth DNA; child diarrhea, growth, and cognitive development; and maternal stress and depression.

Ethics and dissemination

Study protocols have been approved by institutional review boards at Stanford University and the International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b). We will report findings on ClinicalTrials.gov, in peer-reviewed publications, and in stakeholder workshops in Bangladesh.

Trial registration number

NCT05372068, pre-results.

Cost-effectiveness and public health impact of typhoid conjugate vaccine introduction strategies in Bangladesh

PURPOSE

Typhoid fever causes substantial morbidity and mortality in Bangladesh. The government of Bangladesh plans to introduce typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCV) in its expanded program on immunization (EPI) schedule. However, the optimal introduction strategy in addition to the costs and benefits of such a program are unclear.

METHODS

We extended an existing mathematical model of typhoid transmission to integrate cost data, clinical incidence data, and recently conducted serosurveys in urban, semi-urban, and rural areas. In our primary analysis, we evaluated the status quo (i.e., no vaccination) and eight vaccine introduction strategies including routine and 1-time campaign strategies, which differed by age groups targeted and geographic focus. Model outcomes included clinical incidence, seroincidence, deaths, costs, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for each strategy. We adopted a societal perspective, 10-year model time horizon, and 3 % annual discount rate. We performed probabilistic, one-way, and scenario sensitivity analyses including adopting a healthcare perspective and alternate model time horizons.

RESULTS

We projected that all TCV strategies would be cost saving compared to the status quo. The preferred strategy was a nationwide introduction of TCV at 9-12 months of age with a single catch-up campaign for children ages 1-15, which was cost saving compared to all other strategies and the status quo. In the 10 years following implementation, we projected this strategy would avert 3.77 million cases (95 % CrI: 2.60 - 5.18), 11.31 thousand deaths (95 % CrI: 3.77 - 23.60), and save $172.35 million (95 % CrI: -14.29 - 460.59) compared to the status quo. Our findings were broadly robust to changes in parameter values and willingness-to-pay thresholds.

CONCLUSIONS

We projected that nationwide TCV introduction with a catch-up campaign would substantially reduce typhoid incidence and very likely be cost saving in Bangladesh.

Immune responses to typhoid conjugate vaccine in a two dose schedule among Nepalese children <2 years of age

BACKGROUND

Previously, the Vi-typhoid conjugate vaccine (Vi-TT) was found to be highly efficacious in Nepalese children under 16 years of age. We assessed the immunogenicity of Vi-TT at 9 and 12 months of age and response to a booster dose at 15 months of age.

METHODS

Infants were recruited at Patan Hospital, Kathmandu and received an initial dose of Vi-TT at 9 or 12 months of age with a booster dose at 15 months of age. Blood was taken at four timepoints, and antibody titres were measured using a commercial ELISA kit. The primary study outcome was seroconversion (4-fold rise in antibody titre) of IgG one month after both the doses.

FINDINGS

Fifty children were recruited to each study group.Some visits were disrupted by the COVID19 pandemic and occurred out of protocol windows.Both the study groups attained 100 % IgG seroconversion after the initial dose. IgG seroconversion in the 9-month group was significantly higher than in the 12-month group (68.42 % vs 25.8 %, p < 0.001). Among individuals who attended visits per protocol, IgG seroconversion after the first dose occurred in 100 % of individuals (n = 27/27 in 9-month and n = 32/32 in 12-month group). However, seroconversion rates after the second dose were 80 % in the 9-month and 0 % in the shorter dose-interval 12-month group (p < 0.001) (n = 16/20 and n = 0/8, respectively).

INTERPRETATION

Vi-TT is highly immunogenic at both 9 and 12 months of age. Stronger response to a booster in the 9-month group is likely due to the longer interval between doses.

Typhoid fever

Typhoid fever is an invasive bacterial disease associated with bloodstream infection that causes a high burden of disease in Africa and Asia. Typhoid primarily affects individuals ranging from infants through to young adults. The causative organism, Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Typhi is transmitted via the faecal-oral route, crossing the intestinal epithelium and disseminating to systemic and intracellular sites, causing an undifferentiated febrile illness. Blood culture remains the practical reference standard for diagnosis of typhoid fever, where culture testing is available, but novel diagnostic modalities are an important priority under investigation. Since 2017, remarkable progress has been made in defining the global burden of both typhoid fever and antimicrobial resistance; in understanding disease pathogenesis and immunological protection through the use of controlled human infection; and in advancing effective vaccination programmes through strategic multipartner collaboration and targeted clinical trials in multiple high-incidence priority settings. This Primer thus offers a timely update of progress and perspective on future priorities for the global scientific community.

Typhoid Control in an Era of Antimicrobial Resistance: Challenges and Opportunities

Historically, typhoid control has been achieved with water and sanitation interventions. Today, in an era of rising antimicrobial resistance (AMR), two World Health Organization-prequalified vaccines are available to accelerate control in the shorter term. Meanwhile, water and sanitation interventions could be implemented in the longer term to sustainably prevent typhoid in low- and middle-income countries. This article first approaches typhoid control from a historical perspective, subsequently presents how vaccination could complement water and sanitation activities, and finally discusses the challenges and opportunities for impactful control of typhoid infection. It also addresses data blind spots and knowledge gaps to focus on for typhoid control and to ultimately progress towards elimination. This article presents a synthesis of discussions held in December 2021 during a roundtable session at the "12th International Conference on Typhoid and Other Invasive Salmonelloses".

Burden of Typhoid and Paratyphoid Fever in India

BACKGROUND

In 2017, more than half the cases of typhoid fever worldwide were projected to have occurred in India. In the absence of contemporary population-based data, it is unclear whether declining trends of hospitalization for typhoid in India reflect increased antibiotic treatment or a true reduction in infection.

METHODS

From 2017 through 2020, we conducted weekly surveillance for acute febrile illness and measured the incidence of typhoid fever (as confirmed on blood culture) in a prospective cohort of children between the ages of 6 months and 14 years at three urban sites and one rural site in India. At an additional urban site and five rural sites, we combined blood-culture testing of hospitalized patients who had a fever with survey data regarding health care use to estimate incidence in the community.

RESULTS

A total of 24,062 children who were enrolled in four cohorts contributed 46,959 child-years of observation. Among these children, 299 culture-confirmed typhoid cases were recorded, with an incidence per 100,000 child-years of 576 to 1173 cases in urban sites and 35 in rural Pune. The estimated incidence of typhoid fever from hospital surveillance ranged from 12 to 1622 cases per 100,000 child-years among children between the ages of 6 months and 14 years and from 108 to 970 cases per 100,000 person-years among those who were 15 years of age or older. Salmonella enterica serovar Paratyphi was isolated from 33 children, for an overall incidence of 68 cases per 100,000 child-years after adjustment for age.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of typhoid fever in urban India remains high, with generally lower estimates of incidence in most rural areas. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; NSSEFI Clinical Trials Registry of India number, CTRI/2017/09/009719; ISRCTN registry number, ISRCTN72938224.).

Cost-effectiveness analysis of typhoid conjugate vaccines in an outbreak setting: a modeling study

BACKGROUND

Several prolonged typhoid fever epidemics have been reported since 2010 throughout eastern and southern Africa, including Malawi, caused by multidrug-resistant Salmonella Typhi. The World Health Organization recommends the use of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in outbreak settings; however, current data are limited on how and when TCVs might be introduced in response to outbreaks.

METHODOLOGY

We developed a stochastic model of typhoid transmission fitted to data from Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital in Blantyre, Malawi from January 1996 to February 2015. We used the model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of vaccination strategies over a 10-year time horizon in three scenarios: (1) when an outbreak is likely to occur; (2) when an outbreak is unlikely to occur within the next ten years; and (3) when an outbreak has already occurred and is unlikely to occur again. We considered three vaccination strategies compared to the status quo of no vaccination: (a) preventative routine vaccination at 9 months of age; (b) preventative routine vaccination plus a catch-up campaign to 15 years of age; and (c) reactive vaccination with a catch-up campaign to age 15 (for Scenario 1). We also explored variations in outbreak definitions, delays in implementation of reactive vaccination, and the timing of preventive vaccination relative to the outbreak.

RESULTS

Assuming an outbreak occurs within 10 years, we estimated that the various vaccination strategies would prevent a median of 15-60% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Reactive vaccination was the preferred strategy for WTP values of $0-300 per DALY averted. For WTP values > $300, introduction of preventative routine TCV immunization with a catch-up campaign was the preferred strategy. Routine vaccination with a catch-up campaign was cost-effective for WTP values above $890 per DALY averted if no outbreak occurs and > $140 per DALY averted if implemented after the outbreak has already occurred.

CONCLUSIONS

Countries for which the spread of antimicrobial resistance is likely to lead to outbreaks of typhoid fever should consider TCV introduction. Reactive vaccination can be a cost-effective strategy, but only if delays in vaccine deployment are minimal; otherwise, introduction of preventive routine immunization with a catch-up campaign is the preferred strategy.

Cost-effectiveness of sub-national geographically targeted vaccination programs: A systematic review

Immunization is an essential component of national health plans. However, the growing number of new vaccine introductions, vaccination campaigns and increasing administrative costs create logistic and financial challenges, especially in resource-limited settings. Sub-national geographic targeting of vaccination programs is a potential strategy for governments to reduce the impact of infectious disease outbreaks while optimizing resource allocation and reducing costs, promoting sustainability of critically important national immunization plans. We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature to identify studies that investigated the cost-effectiveness of geographically targeted sub-national vaccination programs, either through routine immunization or supplementary immunization activities. A total of 16 studies were included in our review, covering nine diseases of interest: cholera, dengue, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC), hepatitis A, Japanese encephalitis, measles, rotavirus, Shigella and typhoid fever. All studies modelled cost-effectiveness of geographically targeted vaccination. Despite the variation in study design, disease focus and country context, studies generally found that in countries where a heterogenous burden of disease exists, sub-national geographic targeting of vaccination programs in areas of high disease burden was more cost-effective than a non-targeted strategy. Sensitivity analysis revealed that cost-effectiveness was most sensitive to variations in vaccine price, vaccine efficacy, mortality rate, administrative and operational costs, discount rate, and treatment costs. This systematic review identified several key characteristics related to geographic targeting of vaccination, including the vaccination strategy used, variations in modelling parameters and their impact on cost-effectiveness. Additional research and guidance is needed to support the appropriateness and feasibility of geographically targeted vaccination and to determine what country context would make this a viable complement to routine immunization programs.

Comparison of model predictions of typhoid conjugate vaccine public health impact and cost-effectiveness

Models are useful to inform policy decisions on typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) deployment in endemic settings. However, methodological choices can influence model-predicted outcomes. To provide robust estimates for the potential public health impact of TCVs that account for structural model differences, we compared four dynamic and one static mathematical model of typhoid transmission and vaccine impact. All models were fitted to a common dataset of age-specific typhoid fever cases in Kolkata, India. We evaluated three TCV strategies: no vaccination, routine vaccination at 9 months of age, and routine vaccination at 9 months with a one-time catch-up campaign (ages 9 months to 15 years). The primary outcome was the predicted percent reduction in symptomatic typhoid cases over 10 years after vaccine introduction. For three models with economic analyses (Models A-C), we also compared the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), calculated as the incremental cost (US$) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. Routine vaccination was predicted to reduce symptomatic cases by 10-46 % over a 10-year time horizon under an optimistic scenario (95 % initial vaccine efficacy and 19-year mean duration of protection), and by 2-16 % under a pessimistic scenario (82 % initial efficacy and 6-year mean protection). Adding a catch-up campaign predicted a reduction in incidence of 36-90 % and 6-35 % in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Vaccine impact was predicted to decrease as the relative contribution of chronic carriers to transmission increased. Models A-C all predicted routine vaccination with or without a catch-up campaign to be cost-effective compared to no vaccination, with ICERs varying from $95-789 per DALY averted; two models predicted the ICER of routine vaccination alone to be greater than with the addition of catch-up campaign. Despite differences in model-predicted vaccine impact and cost-effectiveness, routine vaccination plus a catch-up campaign is likely to be impactful and cost-effective in high incidence settings such as Kolkata.

Mathematical Models for Typhoid Disease Transmission: A Systematic Literature Review

Explaining all published articles on the typhoid disease transmission model was carried out. It has been conducted to understand how Salmonella is transmitted among humans and vectors with variation interventions to control the spread of the typhoid disease. Specific objectives were to (1) identify the model developed, (2) describe the studies, and (3) identify the interventions of the model. It systemically searched and reviewed Dimension, Scopus, and ScienceDirect databases from 2013 through to 2022 for articles that studied the spread of typhoid fever through a compartmental mathematical model. This study obtained 111 unique articles from three databases, resulting in 23 articles corresponding to the created terms. All the articles were elaborated on to identify their identities for more explanation. Various interventions were considered in the model of each article, are identified, and then summarized to find out the opportunities for model development in future works. The whole article’s content was identified and outlined regarding how mathematics plays a role in model analysis and study of typhoid disease spread with various interventions. The study of mathematical modeling for typhoid disease transmission can be developed on analysis and creating the model with direct and indirect interventions to the human population for further work.

Inclusion of Additional Unintended Consequences in Economic Evaluation: A Systematic Review of Immunization and Tuberculosis Cost-Effectiveness Analyses

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to review economic evaluations of immunization and tuberculosis to determine the extent to which additional unintended consequences were taken into account in the analysis and to describe the methodological approaches used to estimate these, where possible.

METHODS

We sourced the vaccine economic evaluations from a previous systematic review by Nymark et al. (2009-2015) and searched PubMed/MEDLINE and Embase from 2015 to 2019 using the same search strategy. For tuberculosis economic evaluations, we extracted studies from 2009 to 2019 that were published in a previous review by Siapka et al. We followed Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidance. Studies were classified according to the categories and subcategories (e.g., herd immunity, non-specific effects, and labor productivity) defined in a framework identifying additional unintended consequences by Nymark and Vassall. Where possible, methods for estimating the additional unintended consequences categories and subcategories were described. We evaluated the reporting quality of included studies according to the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) extraction guideline.

RESULTS

We identified 177 vaccine cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) between 2009 and 2019 that met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 98 included unintended consequences. Of the total 98 CEAs, overall health consequence categories were included 73 times; biological categories: herd immunity 43 times; pathogen response: resistance 15 times; and cross-protection 15 times. For health consequences pertaining to the supply-side (health systems) categories, side effects were included five times. On the nonhealth demand side (intrahousehold), labor productivity was included 60 times. We identified 29 tuberculosis CEAs from 2009 to 2019 that met the inclusion criteria. Of these, six articles included labor productivity, four included indirect transmission effects, and one included resistance. Between 2009 and 2019, only 34% of tuberculosis CEAs included additional unintended consequences, compared with 55% of vaccine CEAs.

CONCLUSIONS

The inclusion of additional unintended consequences in economic evaluations of immunization and tuberculosis continues to be limited. Additional unintended consequences of economic benefits, such as those examined in this review and especially those that occur outside the health system, offer valuable information to analysts. Further work on appropriate ways to value these additional unintended consequences is still warranted.

Hospitalization Rates and Direct Medical Costs for Fever in a Pediatric Cohort in South India

Background

Primary data on causes and costs of hospitalization are necessary for costing and cost-effectiveness analysis. Data on incidence and causes of hospitalization and consequent expenses among Indian children are limited.

Methods

A cohort of 6000 children aged 0.5–15 years residing in urban Vellore was followed for 3 years, under the Vellore Typhoid Study, 2016–2017, and later under the Surveillance for Enteric Fever project, 2017–2019. Data on hospitalization events and associated antibiotic use, and direct medical costs for fever-related hospitalization of study children were obtained from caregivers through weekly follow-up by study field workers.

Results

The incidence of hospitalization was 33 per 1000 child-years of observation. Children aged 0.5–5 years had the highest incidence of hospitalization. The top 5 infectious causes for hospitalization were acute undifferentiated fevers, respiratory tract infections, acute gastroenteritis, enteric fever, and dengue. The overall median cost of hospitalization for fever was 4243 (interquartile range, 2502–7215) Indian rupees (INR). An episode of dengue had a median cost of 5627 INR, followed by acute undifferentiated fevers and enteric fever with median costs of 3860 and 3507 INR, respectively.

Conclusions

Hospitalization for fever is common in young children and impacts household finances in low-income Indian households.

Comparison of Strategies for Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine Introduction in India: A Cost-Effectiveness Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

Typhoid fever causes substantial global mortality, with almost half occurring in India. New typhoid vaccines are highly effective and recommended by the World Health Organization for high-burden settings. There is a need to determine whether and which typhoid vaccine strategies should be implemented in India.

METHODS

We assessed typhoid vaccination using a dynamic compartmental model, parameterized by and calibrated to disease and costing data from a recent multisite surveillance study in India. We modeled routine and 1-time campaign strategies that target different ages and settings. The primary outcome was cost-effectiveness, measured by incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) benchmarked against India's gross national income per capita (US$2130).

RESULTS

Both routine and campaign vaccination strategies were cost-saving compared to the status quo, due to averted costs of illness. The preferred strategy was a nationwide community-based catchup campaign targeting children aged 1-15 years alongside routine vaccination, with an ICER of $929 per disability-adjusted life-year averted. Over the first 10 years of implementation, vaccination could avert 21-39 million cases and save $1.6-$2.2 billion. These findings were broadly consistent across willingness-to-pay thresholds, epidemiologic settings, and model input distributions.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite high initial costs, routine and campaign typhoid vaccination in India could substantially reduce mortality and was highly cost-effective.

Geographic Pattern of Typhoid Fever in India: A Model-Based Estimate of Cohort and Surveillance Data

BACKGROUND

Typhoid fever remains a major public health problem in India. Recently, the Surveillance for Enteric Fever in India program completed a multisite surveillance study. However, data on subnational variation in typhoid fever are needed to guide the introduction of the new typhoid conjugate vaccine in India.

METHODS

We applied a geospatial statistical model to estimate typhoid fever incidence across India, using data from 4 cohort studies and 6 hybrid surveillance sites from October 2017 to March 2020. We collected geocoded data from the Demographic and Health Survey in India as predictors of typhoid fever incidence. We used a log linear regression model to predict a primary outcome of typhoid incidence.

RESULTS

We estimated a national incidence of typhoid fever in India of 360 cases (95% confidence interval [CI], 297-494) per 100 000 person-years, with an annual estimate of 4.5 million cases (95% CI, 3.7-6.1 million) and 8930 deaths (95% CI, 7360-12 260), assuming a 0.2% case-fatality rate. We found substantial geographic variation of typhoid incidence across the country, with higher incidence in southwestern states and urban centers in the north.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a large burden of typhoid fever in India with substantial heterogeneity across the country, with higher burden in urban centers.

Typhoid and paratyphoid fever: a clinical seminar

Rationale for review: Enteric fever (EF) caused by Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serovar Typhi (Salmonella Typhi) and S. Paratyphi (Salmonella Paratyphi) remains an important cause of infectious morbidity and mortality in many low-income countries and, therefore, still poses a major infectious risk for travellers to endemic countries. Main findings: Although the global burden of EF has decreased over the past two decades, prevalence of EF remains high in Asia and Africa, with the highest prevalence reported from the Indian subcontinent. These statistics are mirrored by data on travel-related EF. Widespread and increasing antimicrobial resistance has narrowed treatment options for travel-related EF. Ceftriaxone- and azithromycin-based therapies are commonly used, even with the emergence of extremely drug-resistant typhoid in Pakistan. Preventive measures among locals and travellers include provision of safe food and water and vaccination. Food and water precautions offer limited protection, and the efficacy of Salmonella Typhi vaccines is only moderate signifying the need for travellers to be extra cautious. Recommendations: Improvement in the diagnosis of typhoid with high degree of clinical suspicion, better diagnostic assays, early and accurate detection of resistance, therapy with appropriate drugs, improvements in hygiene and sanitation with provision of safe drinking water in endemic areas and vaccination among travellers as well as in the endemic population are keys to controlling typhoid. While typhoid vaccines are recommended for travellers to high-risk areas, moderate efficacy and inability to protect against Salmonella Paratyphi are limitations to bear in mind. Improved Salmonella Typhi vaccines and vaccines against Salmonella Paratyphi A are required.

Analyzing the cost-effectiveness of Lyme disease risk reduction approaches

Lyme disease (LD) is endemic in many regions of the Northeastern United States. Given the elusive nature of the disease, a systematic approach to identify efficient interventions would be useful for policymakers in addressing LD. We used Markov modeling to investigate the efficiency of interventions. These interventions range from awareness-based to behavioral-based strategies. Targeting animal reservoirs of LD using fungal spray or bait boxes did not prove to be an effective intervention. Results of awareness-based interventions, including distribution of signage, fliers, and presentations, implementable in different geographical scales, suggest that policymakers should focus on these interventions, as they are both cost-effective and have the highest impact on lowering LD risk. Populations may lose focus of LD warnings over time, thus quick succession of these interventions is vital. Our modeling results identify the awareness-based intervention as the most cost-effective strategy to lower the number of LD cases. These results can aid in the establishment of effective LD risk reduction policy at various scales of implementation.

Typhoid fever infection - Antibiotic resistance and vaccination strategies: A narrative review

Typhoid fever is a bacterial infection caused by the Gram-negative bacterium Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi), prevalent in many low- and middle-income countries. In high-income territories, typhoid fever is predominantly travel-related, consequent to travel in typhoid-endemic regions; however, data show that the level of typhoid vaccination in travellers is low. Successful management of typhoid fever using antibiotics is becoming increasingly difficult due to drug resistance; emerging resistance has spread geographically due to factors such as increasing travel connectivity, affecting those in endemic regions and travellers alike. This review provides an overview of: the epidemiology and diagnosis of typhoid fever; the emergence of drug-resistant typhoid strains in the endemic setting; drug resistance observed in travellers; vaccines currently available to prevent typhoid fever; vaccine recommendations for people living in typhoid-endemic regions; strategies for the introduction of typhoid vaccines and stakeholders in vaccination programmes; and travel recommendations for a selection of destinations with a medium or high incidence of typhoid fever.

Spatial Heterogeneity of Enteric Fever in 2 Diverse Communities in Nepal

BACKGROUND

Typhoid fever is endemic in the urban Kathmandu Valley of Nepal; however, there have been no population-based studies of typhoid outside of this community in the past 3 decades. Whether typhoid immunization should be prioritized in periurban and rural communities has been unclear.

METHODS

We performed population-based surveillance for enteric fever in 1 urban catchment (Kathmandu) and 1 periurban and rural catchment (Kavrepalanchok) as part of the Surveillance for Enteric Fever in Asia Project (SEAP). We recruited individuals presenting to outpatient and emergency departments at 2 study hospitals with suspected enteric fever and performed blood cultures. Additionally, we conducted a household survey in each catchment area to characterize care seeking for febrile illness. We evaluated spatial heterogeneity in febrile illness, care seeking, and enteric fever incidence.

RESULTS

Between September 2016 and September 2019, we enrolled 5736 participants with suspected enteric fever at 2 study hospitals. Among these, 304 (5.3%) were culture positive for Salmonella Typhi (249 [81.9%]) or Paratyphi A (55 [18.1%]). Adjusted typhoid incidence in Kathmandu was 484 per 100 000 person-years and in Kavrepalanchok was 615 per 100 000 person-years. While all geographic areas for which estimates could be made had incidence >200 per 100 000 person-years, we observed spatial heterogeneity with up to 10-fold variation in incidence between communities.

CONCLUSIONS

In urban, periurban, and rural communities in and around Kathmandu, we measured a high but heterogenous incidence of typhoid. These findings provide some support for the introduction of conjugate vaccines in Nepal, including outside urban areas, alongside other measures to prevent enteric fever.

Typhoid Outbreaks, 1989-2018: Implications for Prevention and Control

Typhoid fever remains an important public health problem in low- and middle-income countries, with large outbreaks reported from Africa and Asia. Although the WHO recommends typhoid vaccination for control of confirmed outbreaks, there are limited data on the epidemiologic characteristics of outbreaks to inform vaccine use in outbreak settings. We conducted a literature review for typhoid outbreaks published since 1990. We found 47 publications describing 45,215 cases in outbreaks occurring in 25 countries from 1989 through 2018. Outbreak characteristics varied considerably by WHO region, with median outbreak size ranging from 12 to 1,101 cases, median duration from 23 to 140 days, and median case fatality ratio from 0% to 1%. The largest number of outbreaks occurred in WHO Southeast Asia, 13 (28%), and African regions, 12 (26%). Among 43 outbreaks reporting a mode of disease transmission, 24 (56%) were waterborne, 17 (40%) were foodborne, and two (5%) were by direct contact transmission. Among the 34 outbreaks with antimicrobial resistance data, 11 (32%) reported Typhi non-susceptible to ciprofloxacin, 16 (47%) reported multidrug-resistant (MDR) strains, and one reported extensively drug-resistant strains. Our review showed a longer median duration of outbreaks caused by MDR strains (148 days versus 34 days for susceptible strains), although this difference was not statistically significant. Control strategies focused on water, sanitation, and food safety, with vaccine use described in only six (13%) outbreaks. As typhoid conjugate vaccines become more widely used, their potential role and impact in outbreak control warrant further evaluation.

A Computationally Efficient Method for Probabilistic Parameter Threshold Analysis for Health Economic Evaluations

Background. Threshold analysis is used to determine the threshold value of an input parameter at which a health care strategy becomes cost-effective. Typically, it is performed in a deterministic manner, in which inputs are varied one at a time while the remaining inputs are each fixed at their mean value. This approach will result in incorrect threshold values if the cost-effectiveness model is nonlinear or if inputs are correlated. Objective. To propose a probabilistic method for performing threshold analysis, which accounts for the joint uncertainty in all input parameters and makes no assumption about the linearity of the cost-effectiveness model. Methods. Three methods are compared: 1) deterministic threshold analysis (DTA); 2) a 2-level Monte Carlo approach, which is considered the gold standard; and 3) a regression-based method using a generalized additive model (GAM), which identifies threshold values directly from a probabilistic sensitivity analysis sample. Results. We applied the 3 methods to estimate the minimum probability of hospitalization for typhoid fever at which 3 different vaccination strategies become cost-effective in Uganda. The threshold probability of hospitalization at which routine vaccination at 9 months with catchup campaign to 5 years becomes cost-effective is estimated to be 0.060 and 0.061 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.058–0.064), respectively, for 2-level and GAM. According to DTA, routine vaccination at 9 months with catchup campaign to 5 years would never become cost-effective. The threshold probability at which routine vaccination at 9 months with catchup campaign to 15 years becomes cost-effective is estimated to be 0.092 (DTA), 0.074 (2-level), and 0.072 (95% CI, 0.069–0.075) (GAM). GAM is 430 times faster than the 2-level approach. Conclusions. When the cost-effectiveness model is nonlinear, GAM provides similar threshold values to the 2-level Monte Carlo approach and is computationally more efficient. DTA provides incorrect results and should not be used.

Predicting the Impact of Typhoid Conjugate Vaccines on Antimicrobial Resistance

Background

Empiric prescribing of antimicrobials in typhoid-endemic settings has increased selective pressure on the development of antimicrobial-resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi. The introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in these settings may relieve this selective pressure, thereby reducing resistant infections and improving health outcomes.

Methods

A deterministic transmission dynamic model was developed to simulate the impact of TCVs on the number and proportion of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid infections and chronic carriers. One-way sensitivity analyses were performed to ascertain particularly impactful model parameters influencing the proportion of antimicrobial-resistant infections and the proportion of cases averted over 10 years.

Results

The model simulations suggested that increasing vaccination coverage would decrease the total number of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid infections but not affect the proportion of cases that were antimicrobial resistant. In the base-case scenario with 80% vaccination coverage, 35% of all typhoid infections were antimicrobial resistant, and 44% of the total cases were averted over 10 years by vaccination. Vaccination also decreased both the total number and proportion of chronic carriers of antimicrobial-resistant infections. The prevalence of chronic carriers, recovery rates from infection, and relative fitness of resistant strains were identified as crucially important parameters.

Conclusions

Model predictions for the proportion of antimicrobial resistant infections and number of cases averted depended strongly on the relative fitness of the resistant strain(s), prevalence of chronic carriers, and rates of recovery without treatment. Further elucidation of these parameter values in real-world typhoid-endemic settings will improve model predictions and assist in targeting future vaccination campaigns and treatment strategies.

A Review of the Economic Evidence of Typhoid Fever and Typhoid Vaccines

Typhoid places a substantial economic burden on low- and middle-income countries. We performed a literature review and critical overview of typhoid-related economic issues to inform vaccine introduction. We searched 4 literature databases, covering 2000–2017, to identify typhoid-related cost-of-illness (COI) studies, cost-of-delivery studies, cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs), and demand forecast studies. Manual bibliographic searches of reviews revealed studies in the gray literature. Planned studies were identified in conference proceedings and through partner organization outreach. We identified 29 published, unpublished, and planned studies. Published COI studies revealed a substantial burden in Asia, with hospitalization costs alone ranging from $159 to $636 (in 2016 US$) in India, but there was less evidence for the burden in Africa. Cost-of-delivery studies are largely unpublished, but 1 study found that $671 000 in government investments would avert $60 000 in public treatment costs. CEA evidence was limited, but generally found targeted vaccination programs to be cost-effective. This review revealed insufficient economic evidence for vaccine introduction. Countries considering vaccine introduction should have access to relevant economic evidence to aid in decision-making and planning. Planned studies will fill many of the existing gaps in the literature.

Early Economic Evaluation to Identify the Necessary Test Characteristics of a New Typhoid Test to be Cost Effective in Ghana

BACKGROUND

In Ghana, there are issues with the diagnosis of typhoid fever; these include delays in diagnosis, concerns about the accuracy of current tests, and lack of availability. These issues highlight the need for the development of a rapid, accurate, and easily accessible diagnostic test. The aim of this study was to conduct an early economic analysis of a hypothetical rapid test for typhoid fever diagnosis in Ghana and identify the necessary characteristics of the test for it to be cost effective in Ghana.

METHODS

An early cost-utility analysis was conducted using a decision tree parameterized with secondary data sources, with reasonable assumptions made for unknown parameters. The patient population considered is individuals presenting with symptoms suggestive of typhoid fever at a healthcare facility in Ghana; a time horizon of 180 days and the Ghanaian national health service perspective were adopted for the analysis. Extensive sensitivity analysis was undertaken, including headroom analysis.

RESULTS

The results here show that for a hypothetical test to perform better than the existing test (Widal) in terms of QALYs gained and cost effectiveness, it is necessary for it to have a high specificity (at least 70%) and should not be priced more than US$4. The overall value of conducting research to reduce uncertainty (over 5 years) is US$3287.

CONCLUSION

The analysis shows the potential for the hypothetical test to replace the Widal test and the market potential of developing a new test in the Ghanaian setting.

Using hospital-based studies of community-onset bloodstream infections to make inferences about typhoid fever incidence

Objectives

Hospital-based studies of community-onset bloodstream infections (CO-BSI) are less resource-intensive to carry out than population-based incidence studies. We examined several metrics capturing the potential role of Salmonella Typhi as a cause of CO-BSI for making inferences about incidence.

Methods

We systematically reviewed three databases for hospital-based studies of CO-BSI. We determined, by study, the prevalence and rank order of Salmonella among pathogenic bloodstream isolates, and the prevalence ratio of Salmonella Typhi to Escherichia coli (S:E ratio). We then describe these hospital-based study metrics in relation to population-based typhoid fever incidence data from a separate systematic review.

Results

Forty-four studies met the inclusion criteria, of which 23 (52.3%) isolated Salmonella Typhi at least once. Among studies isolating Salmonella Typhi, the median (interquartile range) prevalence and rank order of Salmonella Typhi compared to other pathogens isolated in BSI was 8.3% (3.2–37.9%) and 3 (1–6), respectively. The median (interquartile range) S:E ratio was 1.0 (0.4–3.0). With respect to incidence, in Pemba Island, Tanzania, prevalence, rank order, S:E ratio, and incidence was 64.8%, 1, 9.2 and 110 cases per 100 000, respectively, and in Boulkiemdé, Burkina Faso, was 13.3%, 3, 2.3 and 249 cases per 100 000.

Conclusions

We describe considerable variation in place and time for Salmonella Typhi prevalence, rank order, and S:E ratio among hospital-based studies of CO-BSI. Data from simultaneous typhoid prevalence and incidence studies are limited. We propose that hospital-based study metrics warrant evaluation for making inference about typhoid incidence and as covariates in typhoid incidence models.

Generating the Evidence for Typhoid Vaccine Introduction: Considerations for Global Disease Burden Estimates and Vaccine Testing Through Human Challenge

Typhoid fever has had a major impact on human populations, with the causative pathogen Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi implicated in many outbreaks through history. The current burden of disease is estimated at 11-18 million infections annually, with the majority of infections located in Africa and South Asia. Data that have been used to estimate burden are limited to a small number of blood-culture surveillance studies, largely from densely populated urban centers. Extrapolating these data to estimate disease burden within and across countries highlights the lack of precision in global figures. A number of approaches have been developed, characterizing different geographical areas by water-based risk factors for typhoid infection or broader measures of health and development to more accurately extrapolate incidence. Recognition of the substantial disease burden is essential for policy-makers considering vaccine introduction. Typhoid vaccines have been in development for >100 years. The Vi polysaccharide (ViPS) and Ty21a vaccines have had a World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation for programmatic use in countries with high burden for 10 years, with 1 ViPS vaccine also having WHO prequalification. Despite this, uptake and introduction of these vaccines has been minimal. The development of a controlled human infection model (CHIM) enabled the accelerated testing of the newly WHO-prequalified ViPS-tetanus toxoid protein conjugate vaccine, providing efficacy estimates for the vaccine, prior to larger field trials. There is an urgency to the global control of enteric fever due to the escalating problem of antimicrobial resistance. With more accurate burden of disease estimates and a vaccine showing efficacy in CHIM, that control is now a possibility.

Typhoid and paratyphoid fever: a call to action

Purpose of review

Enteric fever remains a major global-health concern, estimated to be responsible for between 11.9 and 26.9 million cases annually. Long-term prevention of enteric fever will require improved access to safe drinking water combined with investment in sanitation and hygiene interventions. In the short-to-medium term, new control strategies for typhoid fever have arrived in the form of typhoid Vi-conjugate vaccines (TCVs), offering hope that disease control can be achieved in the near future.

Recent findings

The diagnosis of enteric fever is complicated by its nonspecific clinical presentation, coupled with the low sensitivity of commonly used diagnostics. Investment in diagnostics has the potential to improve management, to refine estimates of disease burden and to facilitate vaccine impact studies. A new generation of reliable, diagnostic tests is needed that are simultaneously accessible, cost-effective, sensitive, and specific. The emergence and global dissemination of multidrug-resistant, fluoroquinolone-resistant, and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) strains of Salmonella Typhi emphasizes the importance of continued surveillance and appropriate antibiotic stewardship, integrated into a global strategy to address antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Current empirical treatment guidelines are out of date and should be updated to respond to local trends in AMR, so as to guide treatment choices in the absence of robust diagnostics and laboratory facilities. In September 2017, the WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts (SAGE) immunization recommended the programmatic use of TCVs in high burden countries. Ongoing and future studies should aim to study the impact of these vaccines in a diverse range of setting and to support the deployment of TCVs in high-burden countries.

Summary

The advent of new generation TCVs offers us a practical and affordable public-health tool that – for the first time – can be integrated into routine childhood immunization programmes. In this review, we advocate for the deployment of TCVs in line with WHO recommendations, to improve child health and limit the spread of antibiotic-resistant S. Typhi.

Cost-effectiveness of routine and campaign use of typhoid Vi-conjugate vaccine in Gavi-eligible countries: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Typhoid fever is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries. In 2017, WHO recommended the programmatic use of typhoid Vi-conjugate vaccine (TCV) in endemic settings, and Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance, has pledged support for vaccine introduction in these countries. Country-level health economic evaluations are now needed to inform decision-making.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we compared four strategies: no vaccination, routine immunisation at 9 months, and routine immunisation at 9 months with catch-up campaigns to either age 5 years or 15 years. For each of the 54 countries eligible for Gavi support, output from an age-structured transmission-dynamic model was combined with country-specific treatment and vaccine-related costs, treatment outcomes, and disability weights to estimate the reduction in typhoid burden, identify the strategy that maximised average net benefit (ie, the optimal strategy) across a range of country-specific willingness-to-pay (WTP) values, estimate and investigate the uncertainties surrounding our findings, and identify the epidemiological conditions under which vaccination is optimal.

FINDINGS

The optimal strategy was either no vaccination or TCV immunisation including a catch-up campaign. Routine vaccination with a catch-up campaign to 15 years of age was optimal in 38 countries, assuming a WTP value of at least US$200 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, or assuming a WTP value of at least 25% of each country's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita per DALY averted, at a vaccine price of $1·50 per dose (but excluding Gavi's contribution according to each country's transition phase). This vaccination strategy was also optimal in 48 countries assuming a WTP of at least $500 per DALY averted, in 51 with assumed WTP values of at least $1000, in 47 countries assuming a WTP value of at least 50% of GDP per capita per DALY averted, and in 49 assuming a minimum of 100%. Vaccination was likely to be cost-effective in countries with 300 or more typhoid cases per 100 000 person-years. Uncertainty about the probability of hospital admission (and typhoid incidence and mortality) had the greatest influence on the optimal strategy.

INTERPRETATION

Countries should establish their own WTP threshold and consider routine TCV introduction, including a catch-up campaign when vaccination is optimal on the basis of this threshold. Obtaining improved estimates of the probability of hospital admission would be valuable whenever the optimal strategy is uncertain.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Research Foundation-Flanders, and the Belgian-American Education Foundation.

Typhoid conjugate vaccines: a new tool in the fight against antimicrobial resistance

Typhoid fever is an acute systemic infectious disease responsible for an estimated 12-20 million illnesses and over 150 000 deaths annually. In March, 2018, a new recommendation was issued by WHO for the programmatic use of typhoid conjugate vaccines in endemic countries. Health economic analyses of typhoid vaccines have informed funding decisions and national policies regarding vaccine rollout. However, by focusing only on averted typhoid cases and their associated costs, traditional cost-effectiveness analyses might underestimate crucial benefits of typhoid vaccination programmes, because the potential effect of typhoid vaccines on the treatment of patients with non-specific acute febrile illnesses is not considered. For every true case of typhoid fever, three to 25 patients without typhoid disease are treated with antimicrobials unnecessarily, conservatively amounting to more than 50 million prescriptions per year. Antimicrobials for suspected typhoid might therefore be an important selective pressure for the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance globally. We propose that large-scale, more aggressive typhoid vaccination programmes-including catch-up campaigns in children up to 15 years of age, and vaccination in lower incidence settings-have the potential to reduce the overuse of antimicrobials and thereby reduce antimicrobial resistance in many bacterial pathogens. Funding bodies and national governments must therefore consider the potential for broad reductions in antimicrobial use and resistance in decisions related to the rollout of typhoid conjugate vaccines.

Economic evaluation of typhoid - a review

INTRODUCTION

To evaluate the potential economic value and likely impact of a hypothetical rapid test in its early stages of development requires the use of models. The model structure and the type of model (dynamic/static) to employ are key considerations. The aim of the review was to explore the literature on typhoid economic evaluations and to explore the types of models that have been previously adopted in this setting for test-treat evaluations and to capture data on model inputs that may be useful for a de novo model.

AREAS COVERED

A systematic review was conducted to identify economic evaluations focused on typhoid in established literature databases. Eight studies were identified and included for narrative synthesis. The review has revealed that there have been relatively few economic evaluations that have focused on typhoid fever, all of which have focused on the impact of interventions at the population level (vaccination) but not the individual level (test-treat strategies).

EXPERT COMMENTARY

Under certain circumstances, either a static model or a transmission dynamic model may be appropriate in the evaluation of an intervention for typhoid fever. Typhoid test-treat modeling represents a gray area where further work is needed.