Overwintering of West Nile Virus in the United States

Modeling West Nile Virus transmission in birds and humans: Advantages of using a cellular automata approach

In Canada, the periodic circulation of West Nile Virus (WNV) is difficult to predict and, beyond climatic factors, appears to be related to the migratory movements of infected birds from the southern United States. This hypothesis has not yet been explored in a spatially distributed model. The main objective of this work was to develop a spatially explicit dynamic model for the transmission of WNV in Canada, that allows us to explore non-climate related hypotheses associated with WNV transmission. A Cellular Automata (CA) approach for multiple hosts (birds and humans) is used for a test region in eastern Ontario, Canada. The tool is designed to explore the role of host and vector spatial heterogeneity, host migration, and vector feeding preferences. We developed a spatialized compartmental SEIRDS-SEI model for WNV transmission with a study region divided into 4 k m 2 rectangular cells. We used 2010-2021 bird data from the eBird project and 2010-2019 mosquito data collected by Ontario Public Health to mimic bird and mosquito seasonal variation. We considered heterogeneous bird densities (high and low suitability areas) and homogeneous mosquito and human densities. In high suitability areas for birds, we identified 5 entry points for WNV-infected birds. We compared our simulations with pools of WNV-infected field collected mosquitoes. Simulations and sensitivity analyses were performed using MATLAB software. The results showed good correspondence between simulated and observed epidemics, supporting the validity of our model assumptions and calibration. Sensitivity analysis showed that a 5% increase or decrease in each parameter of our model except for the biting rate of bird by mosquito (c ( B , M ) ) and mosquito natural mortality rate (d M ), had a very limited effect on the total number of cases (newly infected birds and humans), prevalence peak, or date of occurrence. We demonstrate the utility of the CA approach for studying WNV transmission in a heterogeneous landscape with multiple hosts.

Vector-borne disease models with Lagrangian approach

We develop a multi-group and multi-patch model to study the effects of population dispersal on the spatial spread of vector-borne diseases across a heterogeneous environment. The movement of host and/or vector is described by Lagrangian approach in which the origin or identity of each individual stays unchanged regardless of movement. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of the model is defined and the strong connectivity of the host-vector network is succinctly characterized by the residence times matrices of hosts and vectors. Furthermore, the definition and criterion of the strong connectivity of general infectious disease networks are given and applied to establish the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium. The global dynamics of the model system are shown to be entirely determined by its basic reproduction number. We then obtain several biologically meaningful upper and lower bounds on the basic reproduction number which are independent or dependent of the residence times matrices. In particular, the heterogeneous mixing of hosts and vectors in a homogeneous environment always increases the basic reproduction number. There is a substantial difference on the upper bound of [Formula: see text] between Lagrangian and Eulerian modeling approaches. When only host movement between two patches is concerned, the subdivision of hosts (more host groups) can lead to a larger basic reproduction number. In addition, we numerically investigate the dependence of the basic reproduction number and the total number of infected hosts on the residence times matrix of hosts, and compare the impact of different vector control strategies on disease transmission.

The Ongoing Epidemic of West Nile Virus in Greece: The Contribution of Biological Vectors and Reservoirs and the Importance of Climate and Socioeconomic Factors Revisited

Emerging infectious diseases have inflicted a significant health and socioeconomic burden upon the global population and governments worldwide. West Nile virus, a zoonotic, mosquito-borne flavivirus, was originally isolated in 1937 from a febrile patient in the West Nile Province of Uganda. It remained confined mainly to Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Europe and Australia until 1999, circulating in an enzootic mosquito-bird transmission cycle. Since the beginning of the 21st century, a new, neurotropic, more virulent strain was isolated from human outbreaks initially occurring in North America and later expanding to South and South-eastern Europe. Since 2010, when the first epidemic was recorded in Greece, annual incidence has fluctuated significantly. A variety of environmental, biological and socioeconomic factors have been globally addressed as potential regulators of the anticipated intensity of the annual incidence rate; circulation within the zoonotic reservoirs, recruitment and adaptation of new potent arthropod vectors, average winter and summer temperatures, precipitation during the early summer months, and socioeconomic factors, such as the emergence and progression of urbanization and the development of densely populated areas in association with insufficient health policy measures. This paper presents a review of the biological and socioenvironmental factors influencing the dynamics of the epidemics of West Nile virus (WNV) cases in Greece, one of the highest-ranked European countries in terms of annual incidence. To date, WNV remains an unpredictable opponent as is also the case with other emerging infectious diseases, forcing the National Health systems to develop response strategies, control the number of infections, and shorten the duration of the epidemics, thus minimizing the impact on human and material resources.

Overwintering Culex torrentium in abandoned animal burrows as a reservoir for arboviruses in Central Europe

Culex pipiens s.s./Culex torrentium belong to the most widespread mosquito taxa in Europe and are the main vectors of Sindbis, West Nile and Usutu virus. The adult overwintering females can act as reservoir for these arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses), thus contributing to their local persistence when transmission cycles are interrupted during the winter. However, the main overwintering sites of Cx. torrentium are unknown. In a study from 2017, 3455 Cx. pipiens s.s./Cx. torrentium specimens were collected from abandoned animal burrows in Poznan, Poland. These specimens were retrospectively identified to species-level with a PCR assay, which revealed Cx. torrentium as dominant species (> 60%). Motivated by these results, we conducted a field study from February to July 2022 to systematically analyse the overwintering site patterns of Cx. pipiens s.s./Cx. torrentium. Mosquitoes were sampled using pipe traps in abandoned animal burrows (n = 20) and with aspirators in nearby anthropogenic overwintering sites (n = 23). All Cx. pipiens s.s./Cx. torrentium were screened for Flaviviridae RNA. In total, 4710 mosquitoes of five different taxa were collected from anthropogenic sites. 3977 of them were identified as Cx. p. pipiens/Cx. torrentium (Cx. p. pipiens: 85%, Cx torrentium: 1%, pools with both species: 14%). In contrast, only Cx. p. pipiens/Cx. torrentium (1688 specimens) were collected from animal burrows dominated by Cx. torrentium (52%), followed by pools with both species (40%) and Cx. p pipiens (8%). A single pool of 10 Cx. torrentium specimens collected from an animal burrow was positive for Usutu virus. The detection of Usutu virus demonstrates that Cx. torrentium can act as winter reservoir for arboviruses. Abandoned animal burrows may by the primary overwintering site for the species and should be considered in future surveillance programmes, when sampling overwintering mosquitoes.

Epidemiological and Evolutionary Analysis of West Nile Virus Lineage 2 in Italy

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne virus potentially causing serious illness in humans and other animals. Since 2004, several studies have highlighted the progressive spread of WNV Lineage 2 (L2) in Europe, with Italy being one of the countries with the highest number of cases of West Nile disease reported. In this paper, we give an overview of the epidemiological and genetic features characterising the spread and evolution of WNV L2 in Italy, leveraging data obtained from national surveillance activities between 2011 and 2021, including 46 newly assembled genomes that were analysed under both phylogeographic and phylodynamic frameworks. In addition, to better understand the seasonal patterns of the virus, we used a machine learning model predicting areas at high-risk of WNV spread. Our results show a progressive increase in WNV L2 in Italy, clarifying the dynamics of interregional circulation, with no significant introductions from other countries in recent years. Moreover, the predicting model identified the presence of suitable conditions for the 2022 earlier and wider spread of WNV in Italy, underlining the importance of using quantitative models for early warning detection of WNV outbreaks. Taken together, these findings can be used as a reference to develop new strategies to mitigate the impact of the pathogen on human and other animal health in endemic areas and new regions.

Effects of Hibernation Site, Temperature, and Humidity on the Abundance and Survival of Overwintering Culex pipiens pipiens and Anopheles messeae (Diptera: Culicidae)

Knowledge of the hibernation site preferences and the factors which influence winter survival in these hibernation sites may enhance understanding of mosquito population dynamics after winter and how arboviruses persist in temperate regions. Our study quantified the number of adult overwintering mosquitoes in cellars and aboveground constructions and analyzed survival rates in relation to the environmental conditions in these sites. During the winters 2016/2017 and 2018/2019, 149 different constructions in Northwest Germany were sampled for mosquitoes. Mosquitoes were detected in 44% of the cellars and in 33% of the aboveground constructions. Culex p. pipiens Linnaeus was the most abundant species in cellars, whereas high numbers of Anopheles messeae Falleroni were collected from a single barn. Subsequently, an enclosure study was conducted during 2019/2020. Overwintering field-collected Cx. p. pipiens and An. messeae were divided into groups with or without fructose availability, and placed in cages with different man-made hibernations sites, where temperature and relative humidity were recorded hourly. For both species, increasing mean temperatures (5-16°C) but not mean relative humidity (58-94%) were correlated with winter mortality rates of the mosquitoes. The lipid measurements were greater and mortality rates were lower when both species were provided fructose. Larger specimens (determined by wing length) stored more lipids, and in Cx. p pipiens, but not in An. messeae, survival probability of large specimens was significantly greater than for small females. Mosquitoes showed a distinct pattern in the selection of overwintering sites, while temperature was an important driver for survival.

Vertical Transmission of Sindbis Virus in Culex Mosquitoes

Vertical transmission (VT) is a phenomenon of vector-borne diseases where a pathogen is transferred from an infected arthropod mother to her offspring. For mosquito-borne flavi- and alphaviruses, VT is commonly viewed as rare; however, both field and experimental studies report on vertical transmission efficiency to a notably varying degree. It is likely that this reflects the different experimental methods used to test vertical transmission efficiency as well as differences between virus–vector combinations. There are very few investigations of the VT of an alphavirus in a Culex vector. Sindbis virus (SINV) is an arthritogenic alphavirus that utilizes Culex species as main vectors both in the summer transmission season and for its persistence over the winter period in northern latitudes. In this study, we investigated the vertical transmission of the SINV in Culex vectors, both in the field and in experimental settings. The detection of SINV RNA in field-collected egg rafts and emerging adults shows that vertical transmission takes place in the field. Experimentally infected females gave rise to adult offspring containing SINV RNA at emergence; however, three to four weeks after emergence none of the offspring contained SINV RNA. This study shows that vertical transmission may be connected to SINV’s ability to persist throughout northern winters and also highlights many aspects of viral replication that need further study.

First Evidence of West Nile Virus Overwintering in Mosquitoes in Germany

Mosquitoes collected from mid-December 2020 to early March 2021 from hibernacula in northeastern Germany, a region of West Nile virus (WNV) activity since 2018, were examined for WNV-RNA. Among the 6101 mosquitoes tested in 722 pools of up to 12 specimens, one pool of 10 Culex pipiens complex mosquitoes collected in early March 2021 in the cellar of a medieval castle in Rosslau, federal state of Saxony-Anhalt, tested positive. Subsequent mosquito DNA analysis produced Culex pipiens biotype pipiens. The pool homogenate remaining after nucleic acid extraction failed to grow the virus on Vero and C6/36 cells. Sequencing of the viral NS2B-NS3 coding region, however, demonstrated high homology with virus strains previously collected in Germany, e.g., from humans, birds, and mosquitoes, which have been designated the East German WNV clade. The finding confirms the expectation that WNV can overwinter in mosquitoes in Germany, facilitating an early start to the natural transmission season in the subsequent year. On the other hand, the calculated low infection prevalence of 0.016–0.20%, depending on whether one or twelve of the mosquitoes in the positive pool was/were infected, indicates a slow epidemic progress and mirrors the still-hypoendemic situation in Germany. In any case, local overwintering of the virus in mosquitoes suggests its long-term persistence and an enduring public health issue.

Usutu virus infection in aviary birds during the cold season

The mosquito-borne flavivirus Usutu virus (USUV) is responsible for countless deaths in both resident populations and birds kept in outdoor aviaries. Since 2001, USUV outbreaks attract increased attention due to the rapid geographical spread of the virus and its close relation to West Nile virus (WNV), an emerging pathogen in humans and animals. Similar to WNV, the USUV enzootic transmission cycle predominantly involves Culex spp. as vectors, whereas birds serve as amplifying reservoir hosts. In Europe, USUV-associated disease outbreaks in birds are nearly exclusively described during late spring and early autumn (early April to late October). Contagiousness of virus particles excreted by infected animals has not yet been proven, so that the role of non-vector-borne transmission, as it is known for the closely related WNV, remains unclear. Here we report the diagnosis of USUV infection in 15 of 24 birds from mortality outbreaks in eight different aviaries located in Germany, that occured during the cold season between late October 2018 and early April 2019. Detection of USUV was performed using standardized molecular biological methods and immunohistochemistry for verification of the infection. USUV infection in a parrot species, a tropical finch and two estrildid finches are reported for the first time. Further research on the occurrence of USUV infection during the cold season is key to understanding the dynamics of viral transmission as well as for a profound health risk assessment for aviary birds as well as humans.

The Role of Temperature in Transmission of Zoonotic Arboviruses

We reviewed the literature on the role of temperature in transmission of zoonotic arboviruses. Vector competence is affected by both direct and indirect effects of temperature, and generally increases with increasing temperature, but results may vary by vector species, population, and viral strain. Temperature additionally has a significant influence on life history traits of vectors at both immature and adult life stages, and for important behaviors such as blood-feeding and mating. Similar to vector competence, temperature effects on life history traits can vary by species and population. Vector, host, and viral distributions are all affected by temperature, and are generally expected to change with increased temperatures predicted under climate change. Arboviruses are generally expected to shift poleward and to higher elevations under climate change, yet significant variability on fine geographic scales is likely. Temperature effects are generally unimodal, with increases in abundance up to an optimum, and then decreases at high temperatures. Improved vector distribution information could facilitate future distribution modeling. A wide variety of approaches have been used to model viral distributions, although most research has focused on the West Nile virus. Direct temperature effects are frequently observed, as are indirect effects, such as through droughts, where temperature interacts with rainfall. Thermal biology approaches hold much promise for syntheses across viruses, vectors, and hosts, yet future studies must consider the specificity of interactions and the dynamic nature of evolving biological systems.