Genomic Infectious Disease Epidemiology in Partially Sampled and Ongoing Outbreaks

Characterizing spatial epidemiology in a heterogeneous transmission landscape using the spatial transmission count statistic

BACKGROUND

Viral genomes contain records of geographic movements and cross-scale transmission dynamics. However, the impact of regional heterogeneity, particularly among rural and urban centers, on viral spread and epidemic trajectory has been less explored due to limited data availability. Intensive and widespread efforts to collect and sequence SARS-CoV-2 viral samples have enabled the development of comparative genomic approaches to reconstruct spatial transmission history and understand viral transmission across different scales.

METHODS

We proposed the spatial transmission count statistic that efficiently summarizes the geographic transmission patterns imprinted in viral phylogenies. Guided by a time-scaled tree with ancestral trait states, we identified spatial transmission linkages and categorized them as imports, local transmissions, and exports. These linkages were then summarized to represent the epidemic profile of the focal area.

RESULTS

Here, we demonstrate the utility of this approach for near real-time outbreak analysis using over 12,000 full genomes and linked epidemiological data to investigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Texas. Our findings indicate that (1) highly populated urban centers were the main sources of the epidemic in Texas; (2) outbreaks in urban centers were connected to the global epidemic; and (3) outbreaks in urban centers were locally maintained, while epidemics in rural areas were driven by repeated introductions.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we introduce the Source Sink Score, which determines whether a localized outbreak serves as a source or sink for other regions, and the Local Import Score, which assesses whether the outbreak has transitioned to local transmission rather than being maintained by continued introductions. These epidemiological statistics provide actionable insights for developing public health interventions tailored to the needs of affected areas.

Emergence and interstate spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) in dairy cattle in the United States

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses cross species barriers and have the potential to cause pandemics. In North America, HPAI A(H5N1) viruses related to the goose/Guangdong 2.3.4.4b hemagglutinin phylogenetic clade have infected wild birds, poultry, and mammals. Our genomic analysis and epidemiological investigation showed that a reassortment event in wild bird populations preceded a single wild bird-to-cattle transmission episode. The movement of asymptomatic or presymptomatic cattle has likely played a role in the spread of HPAI within the United States dairy herd. Some molecular markers that may lead to changes in transmission efficiency and phenotype were detected at low frequencies. Continued transmission of H5N1 HPAI within dairy cattle increases the risk for infection and subsequent spread of the virus to human populations.

Reference-Free Variant Calling with Local Graph Construction with ska lo (SKA)

The study of genomic variants is increasingly important for public health surveillance of pathogens. Traditional variant-calling methods from whole-genome sequencing data rely on reference-based alignment, which can introduce biases and require significant computational resources. Alignment- and reference-free approaches offer an alternative by leveraging k-mer-based methods, but existing implementations often suffer from sensitivity limitations, particularly in high mutation density genomic regions. Here, we present ska lo, a graph-based algorithm that aims to identify within-strain variants in pathogen whole-genome sequencing data by traversing a colored De Bruijn graph and building variant groups (i.e. sets of variant combinations). Through in silico benchmarking and real-world dataset analyses, we demonstrate that ska lo achieves high sensitivity in single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) calls while also enabling the detection of insertions and deletions, as well as SNP positioning on a reference genome for recombination analyses. These findings highlight ska lo as a simple, fast, and effective tool for pathogen genomic epidemiology, extending the range of reference-free variant-calling approaches. ska lo is freely available as part of the SKA program (https://github.com/bacpop/ska.rust).

Incorporating Epidemiological Data into the Genomic Analysis of Partially Sampled Infectious Disease Outbreaks

Pathogen genomic data are increasingly being used to investigate transmission dynamics in infectious disease outbreaks. Combining genomic data with epidemiological data should substantially increase our understanding of outbreaks, but this is highly challenging when the outbreak under study is only partially sampled, so that both genomic and epidemiological data are missing for intermediate links in the transmission chains. Here, we present a new dynamic programming algorithm to perform this task efficiently. We implement this methodology into the well-established TransPhylo framework to reconstruct partially sampled outbreaks using a combination of genomic and epidemiological data. We use simulated datasets to show that including epidemiological data can improve the accuracy of the inferred transmission links compared with inference based on genomic data only. This also allows us to estimate parameters specific to the epidemiological data (such as transmission rates between particular groups), which would otherwise not be possible. We then apply these methods to two real-world examples. First, we use genomic data from an outbreak of tuberculosis in Argentina, for which data was also available on the HIV status of sampled individuals, in order to investigate the role of HIV coinfection in the spread of this tuberculosis outbreak. Second, we use genomic and geographical data from the 2003 epidemic of avian influenza H7N7 in the Netherlands to reconstruct its spatial epidemiology. In both cases, we show that incorporating epidemiological data into the genomic analysis allows us to investigate the role of epidemiological properties in the spread of infectious diseases.

Integrated population clustering and genomic epidemiology with PopPIPE

Genetic distances between bacterial DNA sequences can be used to cluster populations into closely related subpopulations and as an additional source of information when detecting possible transmission events. Due to their variable gene content and order, reference-free methods offer more sensitive detection of genetic differences, especially among closely related samples found in outbreaks. However, across longer genetic distances, frequent recombination can make calculation and interpretation of these differences more challenging, requiring significant bioinformatic expertise and manual intervention during the analysis process. Here, we present a Population analysis PIPEline (PopPIPE) which combines rapid reference-free genome analysis methods to analyse bacterial genomes across these two scales, splitting whole populations into subclusters and detecting plausible transmission events within closely related clusters. We use k-mer sketching to split populations into strains, followed by split k-mer analysis and recombination removal to create alignments and subclusters within these strains. We first show that this approach creates high-quality subclusters on a population-wide dataset of Streptococcus pneumoniae. When applied to nosocomial vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium samples, PopPIPE finds transmission clusters that are more epidemiologically plausible than core genome or multilocus sequence typing (MLST) approaches. Our pipeline is rapid and reproducible, creates interactive visualizations and can easily be reconfigured and re-run on new datasets. Therefore, PopPIPE provides a user-friendly pipeline for analyses spanning species-wide clustering to outbreak investigations.

Phylodynamic assessment of SNP distances from whole genome sequencing for determining Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission

The global tuberculosis (TB) epidemic is driven by primary transmission. Pathogen genome sequencing is increasingly used in molecular epidemiology and outbreak investigations. Based on contact tracing and epidemiological links, Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) cut-offs, ranging from 3 to 12 SNPs, identify probable transmission clusters or exclude direct transmission. However, contact tracing can be limited by recall bias and inconsistent methodologies across TB settings. We propose phylodynamic models, i.e. methods to infer transmission processes from pathogen genomes and associated epidemiological data, as an alternative reference to infer transmission events. We analyzed 2,008 whole-genome sequences from Dutch TB patients collected from 2015 to 2019. Genetic clusters were defined within a 20-SNP range, and the phylodynamic model phybreak was employed to infer transmission. Probable transmission SNP cut-offs were assessed by the proportion of inferred transmission events with a SNP distance below these cut-offs. A total of 79 clusters were identified, with a median size of 4 isolates (IQR = 3-8). A SNP cut-off of 4 captured 98% of inferred transmission events while reducing pairs without transmission links. A cut-off beyond 12 SNPs effectively excluded transmission. Phylodynamic approaches provide a valuable alternative to contact tracing for defining SNP cut-offs, allowing for a more precise assessment of transmission events.

JUNIPER: Reconstructing Transmission Events from Next-Generation Sequencing Data at Scale

Transmission reconstruction-the inference of who infects whom in disease outbreaks-offers critical insights into how pathogens spread and provides opportunities for targeted control measures. We developed JUNIPER (Joint Underlying Network Inference for Phylogenetic and Epidemiological Reconstructions), a highly-scalable pathogen outbreak reconstruction tool that incorporates intrahost variation, incomplete sampling, and algorithmic parallelization. Central to JUNIPER is a statistical model for within-host variant frequencies observed by next generation sequencing, which we validated on a dataset of over 160,000 deep-sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Combining this within-host variation model with population-level evolutionary and transmission models, we developed a method for inferring phylogenies and transmission trees simultaneously. We benchmarked JUNIPER on computer-generated and real outbreaks in which transmission links were known or epidemiologically confirmed. We demonstrated JUNIPER's real-world utility on two large-scale datasets: over 1,500 bovine H5N1 cases and over 13,000 human COVID-19 cases. Based on these analyses, we quantified the elevated H5N1 transmission rates in California and identified high-confidence transmission events, and demonstrated the efficacy of vaccination for reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. By overcoming computational and methodological limitations in existing outbreak reconstruction tools, JUNIPER provides a robust framework for studying pathogen spread at scale.

JUNIPER: Reconstructing Transmission Events from Next-Generation Sequencing Data at Scale

Transmission reconstruction--the inference of who infects whom in disease outbreaks--offers critical insights into how pathogens spread and provides opportunities for targeted control measures. We developed JUNIPER (Joint Underlying Network Inference for Phylogenetic and Epidemiological Reconstructions), a highly-scalable pathogen outbreak reconstruction tool that incorporates intrahost variation, incomplete sampling, and algorithmic parallelization. Central to JUNIPER is a statistical model for within-host variant frequencies observed by next generation sequencing, which we validated on a dataset of over 160,000 deep-sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Combining this within-host variation model with population-level evolutionary and transmission models, we developed a method for inferring phylogenies and transmission trees simultaneously. We benchmarked JUNIPER on computer-generated and real outbreaks in which transmission links were known or epidemiologically confirmed. We demonstrated JUNIPER's real-world utility on two large-scale datasets: over 1,500 bovine H5N1 cases and over 13,000 human COVID-19 cases. Based on these analyses, we quantified the elevated H5N1 transmission rates in California and identified high-confidence transmission events, and demonstrated the efficacy of vaccination for reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. By overcoming computational and methodological limitations in existing outbreak reconstruction tools, JUNIPER provides a robust framework for studying pathogen spread at scale.

Seamless, rapid, and accurate analyses of outbreak genomic data using split k-mer analysis

Sequence variation observed in populations of pathogens can be used for important public health and evolutionary genomic analyses, especially outbreak analysis and transmission reconstruction. Identifying this variation is typically achieved by aligning sequence reads to a reference genome, but this approach is susceptible to reference biases and requires careful filtering of called genotypes. There is a need for tools that can process this growing volume of bacterial genome data, providing rapid results, but that remain simple so they can be used without highly trained bioinformaticians, expensive data analysis, and long-term storage and processing of large files. Here we describe split k-mer analysis (SKA2), a method that supports both reference-free and reference-based mapping to quickly and accurately genotype populations of bacteria using sequencing reads or genome assemblies. SKA2 is highly accurate for closely related samples, and in outbreak simulations, we show superior variant recall compared with reference-based methods, with no false positives. SKA2 can also accurately map variants to a reference and be used with recombination detection methods to rapidly reconstruct vertical evolutionary history. SKA2 is many times faster than comparable methods and can be used to add new genomes to an existing call set, allowing sequential use without the need to reanalyze entire collections. With an inherent absence of reference bias, high accuracy, and a robust implementation, SKA2 has the potential to become the tool of choice for genotyping bacteria. SKA2 is implemented in Rust and is freely available as open-source software.

Genomic study substantiates the intensive care unit as a reservoir for carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae in a teaching hospital in China

Carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) has recently emerged as a notable public health concern, while the underlying drivers of CRKP transmission among patients across different healthcare facilities have not been fully elucidated. To explore the transmission dynamics of CRKP, 45 isolates were collected from both the intensive care unit (ICU) and non-ICU facilities in a teaching hospital in Guangdong, China, from March 2020 to August 2023. The collection of clinical data and antimicrobial resistance phenotypes was conducted, followed by genomic data analysis for these isolates. The mean age of the patients was 75.2 years, with 18 patients (40.0%) admitted to the ICU. The predominant strain in hospital-acquired CRKP was sequence type 11 (ST11), with k-locus type 64 and serotype O1/O2v1 (KL64:O1/O2v1), accounting for 95.6% (43/45) of the cases. The CRKP ST11 isolates from the ICU exhibited a low single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) distance when compared to isolates from other departments. Genome-wide association studies identified 17 genes strongly associated with SNPs that distinguish CRKP ST11 isolates from those in the ICU and other departments. Temporal transmission analysis revealed that all CRKP isolates from other departments were genetically very close to those from the ICU, with fewer than 16 SNP differences. To further elucidate the transmission routes among departments within the hospital, we reconstructed detailed patient-to-patient transmission pathways using hybrid methods that combine TransPhylo with an SNP-based algorithm. A clear transmission route, along with mutations in potential key genes, was deduced from genomic data coupled with clinical information in this study, providing insights into CRKP transmission dynamics in healthcare settings.

Unraveling tuberculosis patient cluster transmission chains: integrating WGS-based network with clinical and epidemiological insights

Background

Tuberculosis remains a global health threat, and the World Health Organization reports a limited reduction in disease incidence rates, including both new and relapse cases. Therefore, studies targeting tuberculosis transmission chains and recurrent episodes are crucial for developing the most effective control measures. Herein, multiple tuberculosis clusters were retrospectively investigated by integrating patients' epidemiological and clinical information with median-joining networks recreated based on whole genome sequencing (WGS) data of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates.

Methods

Epidemiologically linked tuberculosis patient clusters were identified during the source case investigation for pediatric tuberculosis patients. Only M. tuberculosis isolate DNA samples with previously determined spoligotypes identical within clusters were subjected to WGS and further median-joining network recreation. Relevant clinical and epidemiological data were obtained from patient medical records.

Results

We investigated 18 clusters comprising 100 active tuberculosis patients 29 of whom were children at the time of diagnosis; nine patients experienced recurrent episodes. M. tuberculosis isolates of studied clusters belonged to Lineages 2 (sub-lineage 2.2.1) and 4 (sub-lineages 4.3.3, 4.1.2.1, 4.8, and 4.2.1), while sub-lineage 4.3.3 (LAM) was the most abundant. Isolates of six clusters were drug-resistant. Within clusters, the maximum genetic distance between closely related isolates was only 5-11 single nucleotide variants (SNVs). Recreated median-joining networks, integrated with patients' diagnoses, specimen collection dates, sputum smear microscopy, and epidemiological investigation results indicated transmission directions within clusters and long periods of latent infection. It also facilitated the identification of potential infection sources for pediatric patients and recurrent active tuberculosis episodes refuting the reactivation possibility despite the small genetic distance of ≤5 SNVs between isolates. However, unidentified active tuberculosis cases within the cluster, the variable mycobacterial mutation rate in dormant and active states, and low M. tuberculosis genetic variability inferred precise transmission chain delineation. In some cases, heterozygous SNVs with an allelic frequency of 10-73% proved valuable in identifying direct transmission events.

Conclusion

The complex approach of integrating tuberculosis cluster WGS-data-based median-joining networks with relevant epidemiological and clinical data proved valuable in delineating epidemiologically linked patient transmission chains and deciphering causes of recurrent tuberculosis episodes within clusters.

Estimating the reproduction number and transmission heterogeneity from the size distribution of clusters of identical pathogen sequences

Quantifying transmission intensity and heterogeneity is crucial to ascertain the threat posed by infectious diseases and inform the design of interventions. Methods that jointly estimate the reproduction number R and the dispersion parameter k have however mainly remained limited to the analysis of epidemiological clusters or contact tracing data, whose collection often proves difficult. Here, we show that clusters of identical sequences are imprinted by the pathogen offspring distribution, and we derive an analytical formula for the distribution of the size of these clusters. We develop and evaluate an inference framework to jointly estimate the reproduction number and the dispersion parameter from the size distribution of clusters of identical sequences. We then illustrate its application across a range of epidemiological situations. Finally, we develop a hypothesis testing framework relying on clusters of identical sequences to determine whether a given pathogen genetic subpopulation is associated with increased or reduced transmissibility. Our work provides tools to estimate the reproduction number and transmission heterogeneity from pathogen sequences without building a phylogenetic tree, thus making it easily scalable to large pathogen genome datasets.

Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Carriage among Neonate Mothers, Healthcare Workers, and Environmental Samples in Neonatal Intensive Care Units: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality among neonates admitted to neonatal intensive care units (NICUs). The MRSA colonization of neonates, attributed to various sources, including mothers, healthcare workers, and environmental surfaces, can lead to severe infection, prolonged hospital stays, and even death, imposing substantial economic burdens. Given the pressing need to mitigate MRSA spread in these vulnerable environments, further examination of the subject is warranted. This systematic review is aimed at synthesizing available evidence on MRSA carriage proportions among mothers of newborns, healthcare workers, and environmental surfaces in NICUs. Methodology. We included observational studies published in English or French from database inception to March 21, 2023. These studies focused on MRSA in nonoutbreak NICU settings, encompassing healthy neonate mothers and healthcare workers, and environmental surfaces. Literature search involved systematic scanning of databases, including Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Global Health, and Global Index Medicus. The quality of the selected studies was assessed using the Hoy et al. critical appraisal scale. The extracted data were summarized to calculate the pooled proportion of MRSA positives, with a 95% confidence interval (CI) based on the DerSimonian and Laird random-effects model.

RESULTS

A total of 1891 articles were retrieved from which 16 studies were selected for inclusion. Most of the studies were from high-income countries. The pooled proportion of MRSA carriage among 821 neonate mothers across four countries was found to be 2.1% (95% CI: 0.3-5.1; I2 = 76.6%, 95% CI: 36.1-91.5). The proportion of MRSA carriage among 909 HCWs in eight countries was determined to be 9.5% (95% CI: 3.1-18.4; I2 = 91.7%, 95% CI: 87.1-94.6). The proportion of MRSA carriage among HCWs was highest in the Western Pacific Region, at 50.00% (95% CI: 23.71-76.29). In environmental specimens from five countries, a pooled proportion of 16.6% (95% CI: 3.5-36.0; I2 = 97.7%, 95% CI: 96.6-98.4) was found to be MRSA-positive.

CONCLUSION

With a significant heterogeneity, our systematic review found high MRSA carriage rates in neonate mothers, healthcare workers, and across various environmental surfaces in NICUs, posing a potential risk of nosocomial infections. Urgent interventions, including regular screening and decolonization of MRSA carriers, reinforcing infection control measures, and enhancing cleaning and disinfection procedures within NICUs, are crucial. This trial is registered with CRD42023407114.

Genomic insights into the evolution and mechanisms of carbapenem-resistant hypervirulent Klebsiella pneumoniae co-harboring blaKPC and blaNDM: implications for public health threat mitigation

BACKGROUND

Carbapenem-resistant hypervirulent Klebsiella pneumoniae (CR-hvKP) co-producing blaKPC and blaNDM poses a serious threat to public health. This study aimed to investigate the mechanisms underlying the resistance and virulence of CR-hvKP isolates collected from a Chinese hospital, with a focus on blaKPC and blaNDM dual-positive hvKP strains.

METHODS

Five CR-hvKP strains were isolated from a teaching hospital in China. Antimicrobial susceptibility and plasmid stability testing, plasmid conjugation, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, and whole-genome sequencing (WGS) were performed to examine the mechanisms of resistance and virulence. The virulence of CR-hvKP was evaluated through serum-killing assay and Galleria mellonella lethality experiments. Phylogenetic analysis based on 16 highly homologous carbapenem-resistant K. pneumoniae (CRKP) producing KPC-2 isolates from the same hospital was conducted to elucidate the potential evolutionary pathway of CRKP co-producing NDM and KPC.

RESULTS

WGS revealed that five isolates individually carried three unique plasmids: an IncFIB/IncHI1B-type virulence plasmid, IncFII/IncR-type plasmid harboring KPC-2 and IncC-type plasmid harboring NDM-1. The conjugation test results indicated that the transference of KPC-2 harboring IncFII/IncR-type plasmid was unsuccessful on their own, but could be transferred by forming a hybrid plasmid with the IncC plasmid harboring NDM. Further genetic analysis confirmed that the pJNKPN26-KPC plasmid was entirely integrated into the IncC-type plasmid via the copy-in route, which was mediated by TnAs1 and IS26.

CONCLUSION

KPC-NDM-CR-hvKP likely evolved from a KPC-2-CRKP ancestor and later acquired a highly transferable blaNDM-1 plasmid. ST11-KL64 CRKP exhibited enhanced plasticity. The identification of KPC-2-NDM-1-CR-hvKP highlights the urgent need for effective preventive strategies against aggravated accumulation of resistance genes.

Genetic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 virus variants observed upon three waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine between February 2021-January 2022

The aim

of our study was to identify and characterize the SARS-CoV-2 variants in COVID-19 patients' samples collected from different regions of Ukraine to determine the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 phylogenetics and COVID-19 epidemiology.

Patients and methods

Samples were collected from COVID-19 patients during 2021 and the beginning of 2022 (401 patients). The SARS-CoV-2 genotyping was performed by parallel whole genome sequencing.

Results

The obtained SARS-CoV-2 genotypes showed that three waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine were represented by three main variants of concern (VOC), named Alpha, Delta and Omicron; each VOC successfully replaced the earlier variant. The VOC Alpha strain was presented by one B.1.1.7 lineage, while VOC Delta showed a spectrum of 25 lineages that had different prevalence in 19 investigated regions of Ukraine. The VOC Omicron in the first half of the pandemic was represented by 13 lines that belonged to two different clades representing B.1 and B.2 Omicron strains. Each of the three epidemic waves (VOC Alpha, Delta, and Omicron) demonstrated their own course of disease, associated with genetic changes in the SARS-CoV-2 genome. The observed epidemiological features are associated with the genetic characteristics of the different VOCs, such as point mutations, deletions and insertions in the viral genome. A phylogenetic and transmission analysis showed the different mutation rates; there were multiple virus sources with a limited distribution between regions.

Conclusions

The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 virus and high levels of morbidity due to COVID-19 are still registered in the world. Observed multiple virus sourses with the limited distribution between regions indicates the high efficiency of the anti-epidemic policy pursued by the Ministry of Health of Ukraine to prevent the spread of the epidemic, despite the low level of vaccination of the Ukrainian population.

Whole-Genome sequencing in routine Mycobacterium bovis epidemiology - scoping the potential

Mycobacterium bovis the main agent of bovine tuberculosis (bTB), presents as a series of spatially-localised micro-epidemics across landscapes. Classical molecular typing methods applied to these micro-epidemics, based on genotyping a few variable loci, have significantly improved our understanding of potential epidemiological links between outbreaks. However, they have limited utility owing to low resolution. Conversely, whole-genome sequencing (WGS) provides the highest resolution data available for molecular epidemiology, producing richer outbreak tracing, insights into phylogeography and epidemic evolutionary history. We illustrate these advantages by focusing on a common single lineage of M. bovis (1.140) from Northern Ireland. Specifically, we investigate the spatial sub-structure of 20 years of herd-level multi locus VNTR analysis (MLVA) surveillance data and WGS data from a down sampled subset of isolates of this MLVA type over the same time frame. We mapped 2108 isolate locations of MLVA type 1.140 over the years 2000-2022. We also mapped the locations of 148 contemporary WGS isolates from this lineage, over a similar geographic range, stratifying by single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) relatedness cut-offs of 15 SNPs. We determined a putative core range for the 1.140 MLVA type and SNP-defined sequence clusters using a 50 % kernel density estimate, using cattle movement data to inform on likely sources of WGS isolates found outside of core ranges. Finally, we applied Bayesian phylogenetic methods to investigate past population history and reproductive number of the 1.140 M. bovis lineage. We demonstrate that WGS SNP-defined clusters exhibit smaller core ranges than the established MLVA type - facilitating superior disease tracing. We also demonstrate the superior functionality of WGS data in determining how this lineage was disseminated across the landscape, likely via cattle movement and to infer how its effective population size and reproductive number has been in flux since its emergence. These initial findings highlight the potential of WGS data for routine monitoring of bTB outbreaks.

Changing genomic epidemiology of COVID-19 in long-term care facilities during the 2020-2022 pandemic, Washington State

BACKGROUND

Long-term care facilities (LTCFs) are vulnerable to disease outbreaks. Here, we jointly analyze SARS-CoV-2 genomic and paired epidemiologic data from LTCFs and surrounding communities in Washington state (WA) to assess transmission patterns during 2020-2022, in a setting of changing policy. We describe sequencing efforts and genomic epidemiologic findings across LTCFs and perform in-depth analysis in a single county.

METHODS

We assessed genomic data representativeness, built phylogenetic trees, and conducted discrete trait analysis to estimate introduction sizes over time, and explored selected outbreaks to further characterize transmission events.

RESULTS

We found that transmission dynamics among cases associated with LTCFs in WA changed over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, with variable introduction rates into LTCFs, but decreasing amplification within LTCFs. SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in LTCFs were similar to those circulating in communities at the same time. Transmission between staff and residents was bi-directional.

CONCLUSIONS

Understanding transmission dynamics within and between LTCFs using genomic epidemiology on a broad scale can assist in targeting policies and prevention efforts. Tracking facility-level outbreaks can help differentiate intra-facility outbreaks from high community transmission with repeated introduction events. Based on our study findings, methods for routine tree building and overlay of epidemiologic data for hypothesis generation by public health practitioners are recommended. Discrete trait analysis added valuable insight and can be considered when representative sequencing is performed. Cluster detection tools, especially those that rely on distance thresholds, may be of more limited use given current data capture and timeliness. Importantly, we noted a decrease in data capture from LTCFs over time. Depending on goals for use of genomic data, sentinel surveillance should be increased or targeted surveillance implemented to ensure available data for analysis.

Inference of Infectious Disease Transmission through a Relaxed Bottleneck Using Multiple Genomes Per Host

In recent times, pathogen genome sequencing has become increasingly used to investigate infectious disease outbreaks. When genomic data is sampled densely enough amongst infected individuals, it can help resolve who infected whom. However, transmission analysis cannot rely solely on a phylogeny of the genomes but must account for the within-host evolution of the pathogen, which blurs the relationship between phylogenetic and transmission trees. When only a single genome is sampled for each host, the uncertainty about who infected whom can be quite high. Consequently, transmission analysis based on multiple genomes of the same pathogen per host has a clear potential for delivering more precise results, even though it is more laborious to achieve. Here, we present a new methodology that can use any number of genomes sampled from a set of individuals to reconstruct their transmission network. Furthermore, we remove the need for the assumption of a complete transmission bottleneck. We use simulated data to show that our method becomes more accurate as more genomes per host are provided, and that it can infer key infectious disease parameters such as the size of the transmission bottleneck, within-host growth rate, basic reproduction number, and sampling fraction. We demonstrate the usefulness of our method in applications to real datasets from an outbreak of Pseudomonas aeruginosa amongst cystic fibrosis patients and a nosocomial outbreak of Klebsiella pneumoniae.

Salmonella and Salmonellosis: An Update on Public Health Implications and Control Strategies

Salmonellosis is globally recognized as one of the leading causes of acute human bacterial gastroenteritis resulting from the consumption of animal-derived products, particularly those derived from the poultry and pig industry. Salmonella spp. is generally associated with self-limiting gastrointestinal symptoms, lasting between 2 and 7 days, which can vary from mild to severe. The bacteria can also spread in the bloodstream, causing sepsis and requiring effective antimicrobial therapy; however, sepsis rarely occurs. Salmonellosis control strategies are based on two fundamental aspects: (a) the reduction of prevalence levels in animals by means of health, biosecurity, or food strategies and (b) protection against infection in humans. At the food chain level, the prevention of salmonellosis requires a comprehensive approach at farm, manufacturing, distribution, and consumer levels. Proper handling of food, avoiding cross-contamination, and thorough cooking can reduce the risk and ensure the safety of food. Efforts to reduce transmission of Salmonella by food and other routes must be implemented using a One Health approach. Therefore, in this review we provide an update on Salmonella, one of the main zoonotic pathogens, emphasizing its relationship with animal and public health. We carry out a review on different topics about Salmonella and salmonellosis, with a special emphasis on epidemiology and public health, microbial behavior along the food chain, predictive microbiology principles, antimicrobial resistance, and control strategies.

Inferring bacterial transmission dynamics using deep sequencing genomic surveillance data

Identifying and interrupting transmission chains is important for controlling infectious diseases. One way to identify transmission pairs - two hosts in which infection was transmitted from one to the other - is using the variation of the pathogen within each single host (within-host variation). However, the role of such variation in transmission is understudied due to a lack of experimental and clinical datasets that capture pathogen diversity in both donor and recipient hosts. In this work, we assess the utility of deep-sequenced genomic surveillance (where genomic regions are sequenced hundreds to thousands of times) using a mouse transmission model involving controlled spread of the pathogenic bacterium Citrobacter rodentium from infected to naïve female animals. We observe that within-host single nucleotide variants (iSNVs) are maintained over multiple transmission steps and present a model for inferring the likelihood that a given pair of sequenced samples are linked by transmission. In this work we show that, beyond the presence and absence of within-host variants, differences arising in the relative abundance of iSNVs (allelic frequency) can infer transmission pairs more precisely. Our approach further highlights the critical role bottlenecks play in reserving the within-host diversity during transmission.

Unveiling invisible farm-to-farm PRRSV-2 transmission links and routes through transmission tree and network analysis

The United States (U.S.) swine industry has struggled to control porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) for decades, yet the causative virus, PRRSV-2, continues to circulate and rapidly diverges into new variants. In the swine industry, the farm is typically the epidemiological unit for monitoring, prevention, and control; breaking transmission among farms is a critical step in containing disease spread. Despite this, our understanding of farm transmission still is inadequate, precluding the development of tailored control strategies. Therefore, our objective was to infer farm-to-farm transmission links, estimate farm-level transmissibility as defined by reproduction numbers (R), and identify associated risk factors for transmission using PRRSV-2 open reading frame 5 (ORF5) gene sequences, animal movement records, and other data from farms in a swine-dense region of the U.S. from 2014 to 2017. Timed phylogenetic and transmission tree analyses were performed on three sets of sequences (n = 206) from 144 farms that represented the three largest genetic variants of the virus in the study area. The length of inferred pig-to-pig infection chains that corresponded to pairs of farms connected via direct animal movement was used as a threshold value for identifying other feasible transmission links between farms; these links were then transformed into farm-to-farm transmission networks and calculated farm-level R-values. The median farm-level R was one (IQR = 1-2), whereas the R value of 28% of farms was more than one. Exponential random graph models were then used to evaluate the influence of farm attributes and/or farm relationships on the occurrence of farm-to-farm transmission links. These models showed that, even though most transmission events cannot be directly explained by animal movement, movement was strongly associated with transmission. This study demonstrates how integrative techniques may improve disease traceability in a data-rich era by providing a clearer picture of regional disease transmission.

Within-host diversity improves phylogenetic and transmission reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Accurate inference of who infected whom in an infectious disease outbreak is critical for the delivery of effective infection prevention and control. The increased resolution of pathogen whole-genome sequencing has significantly improved our ability to infer transmission events. Despite this, transmission inference often remains limited by the lack of genomic variation between the source case and infected contacts. Although within-host genetic diversity is common among a wide variety of pathogens, conventional whole-genome sequencing phylogenetic approaches exclusively use consensus sequences, which consider only the most prevalent nucleotide at each position and therefore fail to capture low-frequency variation within samples. We hypothesized that including within-sample variation in a phylogenetic model would help to identify who infected whom in instances in which this was previously impossible. Using whole-genome sequences from SARS-CoV-2 multi-institutional outbreaks as an example, we show how within-sample diversity is partially maintained among repeated serial samples from the same host, it can transmitted between those cases with known epidemiological links, and how this improves phylogenetic inference and our understanding of who infected whom. Our technique is applicable to other infectious diseases and has immediate clinical utility in infection prevention and control.

Genomic epidemiology offers high resolution estimates of serial intervals for COVID-19

Serial intervals - the time between symptom onset in infector and infectee - are a fundamental quantity in infectious disease control. However, their estimation requires knowledge of individuals' exposures, typically obtained through resource-intensive contact tracing efforts. We introduce an alternate framework using virus sequences to inform who infected whom and thereby estimate serial intervals. We apply our technique to SARS-CoV-2 sequences from case clusters in the first two COVID-19 waves in Victoria, Australia. We find that our approach offers high resolution, cluster-specific serial interval estimates that are comparable with those obtained from contact data, despite requiring no knowledge of who infected whom and relying on incompletely-sampled data. Compared to a published serial interval, cluster-specific serial intervals can vary estimates of the effective reproduction number by a factor of 2-3. We find that serial interval estimates in settings such as schools and meat processing/packing plants are shorter than those in healthcare facilities.

The relative transmission fitness of multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis in a drug resistance hotspot

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is among the most frequent causes of death due to antimicrobial resistance. Although only 3% of global TB cases are MDR, geographical hotspots with up to 40% of MDR-TB have been observed in countries of the former Soviet Union. While the quality of TB control and patient-related factors are known contributors to such hotspots, the role of the pathogen remains unclear. Here we show that in the country of Georgia, a known hotspot of MDR-TB, MDR Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains of lineage 4 (L4) transmit less than their drug-susceptible counterparts, whereas most MDR strains of L2 suffer no such defect. Our findings further indicate that the high transmission fitness of these L2 strains results from epistatic interactions between the rifampicin resistance-conferring mutation RpoB S450L, compensatory mutations in the RNA polymerase, and other pre-existing genetic features of L2/Beijing clones that circulate in Georgia. We conclude that the transmission fitness of MDR M. tuberculosis strains is heterogeneous, but can be as high as drug-susceptible forms, and that such highly drug-resistant and transmissible strains contribute to the emergence and maintenance of hotspots of MDR-TB. As these strains successfully overcome the metabolic burden of drug resistance, and given the ongoing rollout of new treatment regimens against MDR-TB, proper surveillance should be implemented to prevent these strains from acquiring resistance to the additional drugs.

Colonization and transmission of Staphylococcus aureus in schools: a citizen science project

Aggregation of children in schools has been established to be a key driver of transmission of infectious diseases. Mathematical models of transmission used to predict the impact of control measures, such as vaccination and testing, commonly depend on self-reported contact data. However, the link between self-reported social contacts and pathogen transmission has not been well described. To address this, we used Staphylococcus aureus as a model organism to track transmission within two secondary schools in England and test for associations between self-reported social contacts, test positivity and the bacterial strain collected from the same students. Students filled out a social contact survey and their S. aureus colonization status was ascertained through self-administered swabs from which isolates were sequenced. Isolates from the local community were also sequenced to assess the representativeness of school isolates. A low frequency of genome-linked transmission precluded a formal analysis of links between genomic and social networks, suggesting that S. aureus transmission within schools is too rare to make it a viable tool for this purpose. Whilst we found no evidence that schools are an important route of transmission, increased colonization rates found within schools imply that school-age children may be an important source of community transmission.

Quantifying the value of viral genomics when inferring who infected whom in the 2014-16 Ebola virus outbreak in Guinea

Transmission trees can be established through detailed contact histories, statistical or phylogenetic inference, or a combination of methods. Each approach has its limitations, and the extent to which they succeed in revealing a 'true' transmission history remains unclear. In this study, we compared the transmission trees obtained through contact tracing investigations and various inference methods to identify the contribution and value of each approach. We studied eighty-six sequenced cases reported in Guinea between March and November 2015. Contact tracing investigations classified these cases into eight independent transmission chains. We inferred the transmission history from the genetic sequences of the cases (phylogenetic approach), their onset date (epidemiological approach), and a combination of both (combined approach). The inferred transmission trees were then compared to those from the contact tracing investigations. Inference methods using individual data sources (i.e. the phylogenetic analysis and the epidemiological approach) were insufficiently informative to accurately reconstruct the transmission trees and the direction of transmission. The combined approach was able to identify a reduced pool of infectors for each case and highlight likely connections among chains classified as independent by the contact tracing investigations. Overall, the transmissions identified by the contact tracing investigations agreed with the evolutionary history of the viral genomes, even though some cases appeared to be misclassified. Therefore, collecting genetic sequences during outbreak is key to supplement the information contained in contact tracing investigations. Although none of the methods we used could identify one unique infector per case, the combined approach highlighted the added value of mixing epidemiological and genetic information to reconstruct who infected whom.

Phylogenetic Analysis of Bacterial Pathogen Genomes

The development of high-throughput sequencing technology has led to a significant reduction in the time and cost of sequencing whole genomes of bacterial pathogens. Studies can sequence and compare hundreds or even thousands of genomes within a given bacterial population. A phylogenetic tree is the most frequently used method of depicting the relationships between these bacterial pathogen genomes. However, the presence of homologous recombination in most bacterial pathogen species can invalidate the application of standard phylogenetic tools. Here we describe a method to produce phylogenetic analyses that accounts for the disruptive effect of recombination. This allows users to investigate the recombination events that have occurred, as well as to produce more meaningful phylogenetic analyses which recover the clonal genealogy representing the clonal relationships between genomes.

Transmission of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Beijing, China: An epidemiological and genomic analysis

Background

Understanding multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) transmission patterns is crucial for controlling the disease. We aimed to identify high-risk populations and geographic settings of MDR-TB transmission.

Methods

We conducted a population-based retrospective study of MDR-TB patients in Beijing from 2018 to 2020, and assessed MDR-TB recent transmission using whole-genome sequencing of isolates. Geospatial analysis was conducted with kernel density estimation. We combined TransPhylo software with epidemiological investigation data to construct transmission networks. Logistic regression analysis was utilized to identify risk factors for recent transmission.

Results

We included 241 MDR-TB patients, of which 146 (60.58%) were available for genomic analysis. Drug resistance prediction showed that resistance to fluoroquinolones (FQs) was as high as 39.74% among new cases. 36 (24.66%) of the 146 MDR strains were grouped into 12 genome clusters, suggesting recent transmission of MDR strains. 44.82% (13/29) of the clustered patients lived in the same residential community, adjacent residential community or the same street as other cases. The inferred transmission chain found a total of 6 transmission events in 3 clusters; of these, 4 transmission events occurred in residential areas and nearby public places. Logistic regression analysis revealed that being aged 25-34 years-old was a risk factor for recent transmission.

Conclusions

The recent transmission of MDR-TB in Beijing is severe, and residential areas are common sites of transmission; high levels of FQs drug resistance suggest that FQs should be used with caution unless resistance can be ruled out by laboratory testing.

Early evolution and transmission of GII.P16-GII.2 norovirus in China

Norovirus is the most common cause of acute gastroenteritis worldwide. During 2016-2017, a novel recombinant GII.P16-GII.2 genotype of norovirus suddenly appeared and over the next several years became the predominant strain in both China and worldwide. To better understand the origin and diffusion of the GII.P16-GII.2 genotype in China, we conducted molecular evolutionary analyses, including phylodynamics and phylogeography. Moreover, to trace person-to-person transmission of GII.P16-GII.2 norovirus, we applied the novel method, TransPhylo, to a historical phylogeny using sequences obtained from a publicly available database. A time-scaled phylogenetic tree indicated that the time to the most recent common ancestor of the GII.P16-GII.2 major capsid protein (VP1) gene diverged from the GII.P2-GII.2 VP1 gene at 2,001.03 with an evolutionary rate of 3.32 × 10-3 substitutions/site/year. The time to the most recent common ancestor of the GII.P16-GII.2 RNA-dependent RNA polymerase region diverged from the GII.P16-GII.4 RNA-dependent RNA polymerase region at 2,013.28 with an evolutionary rate of 9.44 × 10-3 substitutions/site/year. Of these 2 genomic regions, VP1 gene sequence variations were the most influenced by selective pressure. A phylogeographic analysis showed that GII.P16-GII.2 strains in China communicated most frequently with those in the United States, Australia, Thailand, and Russia, suggesting import from Australia to Taiwan and from the United States to Guangdong. TransPhylo analyses indicated that the basic reproductive number (R0) and sampling proportion (pi) of GII.P16-GII.2 norovirus were 1.99 (95% confidence interval: 1.58-2.44) and 0.76 (95% confidence interval: 0.63-0.88), respectively. Strains from the United States and Australia were responsible for large spread during the evolution and transmission of the virus. Coastal cities and places with high population densities should be closely monitored for norovirus.

The potential of genomics for infectious disease forecasting

Genomic technologies have led to tremendous gains in understanding how pathogens function, evolve and interact. Pathogen diversity is now measurable at high precision and resolution, in part because over the past decade, sequencing technologies have increased in speed and capacity, at decreased cost. Alongside this, the use of models that can forecast emergence and size of infectious disease outbreaks has risen, highlighted by the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic but also due to modelling advances that allow for rapid estimates in emerging outbreaks to inform monitoring, coordination and resource deployment. However, genomics studies have remained largely retrospective. While they contain high-resolution views of pathogen diversification and evolution in the context of selection, they are often not aligned with designing interventions. This is a missed opportunity because pathogen diversification is at the core of the most pressing infectious public health challenges, and interventions need to take the mechanisms of virulence and understanding of pathogen diversification into account. In this Perspective, we assess these converging fields, discuss current challenges facing both surveillance specialists and modellers who want to harness genomic data, and propose next steps for integrating longitudinally sampled genomic data with statistical learning and interpretable modelling to make reliable predictions into the future.

SOPHIE: Viral outbreak investigation and transmission history reconstruction in a joint phylogenetic and network theory framework

Genomic epidemiology is now widely used for viral outbreak investigations. Still, this methodology faces many challenges. First, few methods account for intra-host viral diversity. Second, maximum parsimony principle continues to be employed for phylogenetic inference of transmission histories, even though maximum likelihood or Bayesian models are usually more consistent. Third, many methods utilize case-specific data, such as sampling times or infection exposure intervals. This impedes study of persistent infections in vulnerable groups, where such information has a limited use. Finally, most methods implicitly assume that transmission events are independent, although common source outbreaks violate this assumption. We propose a maximum likelihood framework, SOPHIE, based on the integration of phylogenetic and random graph models. It infers transmission networks from viral phylogenies and expected properties of inter-host social networks modeled as random graphs with given expected degree distributions. SOPHIE is scalable, accounts for intra-host diversity, and accurately infers transmissions without case-specific epidemiological data.

A deep learning approach to real-time HIV outbreak detection using genetic data

Pathogen genomic sequence data are increasingly made available for epidemiological monitoring. A main interest is to identify and assess the potential of infectious disease outbreaks. While popular methods to analyze sequence data often involve phylogenetic tree inference, they are vulnerable to errors from recombination and impose a high computational cost, making it difficult to obtain real-time results when the number of sequences is in or above the thousands. Here, we propose an alternative strategy to outbreak detection using genomic data based on deep learning methods developed for image classification. The key idea is to use a pairwise genetic distance matrix calculated from viral sequences as an image, and develop convolutional neutral network (CNN) models to classify areas of the images that show signatures of active outbreak, leading to identification of subsets of sequences taken from an active outbreak. We showed that our method is efficient in finding HIV-1 outbreaks with R0 ≥ 2.5, and overall a specificity exceeding 98% and sensitivity better than 92%. We validated our approach using data from HIV-1 CRF01 in Europe, containing both endemic sequences and a well-known dual outbreak in intravenous drug users. Our model accurately identified known outbreak sequences in the background of slower spreading HIV. Importantly, we detected both outbreaks early on, before they were over, implying that had this method been applied in real-time as data became available, one would have been able to intervene and possibly prevent the extent of these outbreaks. This approach is scalable to processing hundreds of thousands of sequences, making it useful for current and future real-time epidemiological investigations, including public health monitoring using large databases and especially for rapid outbreak identification.

Traversing missing links in the spread of HIV

Combining clinical and genetic data can improve the effectiveness of virus tracking with the aim of reducing the number of HIV cases by 2030.

Combining biomarker and virus phylogenetic models improves HIV-1 epidemiological source identification

To identify and stop active HIV transmission chains new epidemiological techniques are needed. Here, we describe the development of a multi-biomarker augmentation to phylogenetic inference of the underlying transmission history in a local population. HIV biomarkers are measurable biological quantities that have some relationship to the amount of time someone has been infected with HIV. To train our model, we used five biomarkers based on real data from serological assays, HIV sequence data, and target cell counts in longitudinally followed, untreated patients with known infection times. The biomarkers were modeled with a mixed effects framework to allow for patient specific variation and general trends, and fit to patient data using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Subsequently, the density of the unobserved infection time conditional on observed biomarkers were obtained by integrating out the random effects from the model fit. This probabilistic information about infection times was incorporated into the likelihood function for the transmission history and phylogenetic tree reconstruction, informed by the HIV sequence data. To critically test our methodology, we developed a coalescent-based simulation framework that generates phylogenies and biomarkers given a specific or general transmission history. Testing on many epidemiological scenarios showed that biomarker augmented phylogenetics can reach 90% accuracy under idealized situations. Under realistic within-host HIV-1 evolution, involving substantial within-host diversification and frequent transmission of multiple lineages, the average accuracy was at about 50% in transmission clusters involving 5-50 hosts. Realistic biomarker data added on average 16 percentage points over using the phylogeny alone. Using more biomarkers improved the performance. Shorter temporal spacing between transmission events and increased transmission heterogeneity reduced reconstruction accuracy, but larger clusters were not harder to get right. More sequence data per infected host also improved accuracy. We show that the method is robust to incomplete sampling and that adding biomarkers improves reconstructions of real HIV-1 transmission histories. The technology presented here could allow for better prevention programs by providing data for locally informed and tailored strategies.

Airborne Transmission and Control of Influenza and Other Respiratory Pathogens

Despite uncertainty about the specific transmission risk posed by airborne, spray-borne, and contact modes for influenza, SARS-CoV-2, and other respiratory viruses, there is evidence that airborne transmission via inhalation is important and often predominates. An early study of influenza transmission via airborne challenge quantified infectious doses as low as one influenza virion leading to illness characterized by cough and sore throat. Other studies that challenged via intranasal mucosal exposure observed high doses required for similarly symptomatic respiratory illnesses. Analysis of the Evaluating Modes of Influenza Transmission (EMIT) influenza human-challenge transmission trial—of 52 H3N2 inoculated viral donors and 75 sero-susceptible exposed individuals—quantifies airborne transmission and provides context and insight into methodology related to airborne transmission. Advances in aerosol sampling and epidemiologic studies examining the role of masking, and engineering-based air hygiene strategies provide a foundation for understanding risk and directions for new work.

Finding Asymptomatic Spreaders in a COVID-19 Transmission Network by Graph Attention Networks

In the COVID-19 epidemic the mildly symptomatic and asymptomatic infections generate a substantial portion of virus spread; these undetected individuals make it difficult to assess the effectiveness of preventive measures as most epidemic prevention strategies are based on the detected data. Effectively identifying the undetected infections in local transmission will be of great help in COVID-19 control. In this work, we propose an RNA virus transmission network representation model based on graph attention networks (RVTR); this model is constructed using the principle of natural language processing to learn the information of gene sequence and using a graph attention network to catch the topological character of COVID-19 transmission networks. Since SARS-CoV-2 will mutate when it spreads, our approach makes use of graph context loss function, which can reflect that the genetic sequence of infections with close spreading relation will be more similar than those with a long distance, to train our model. Our approach shows its ability to find asymptomatic spreaders both on simulated and real COVID-19 datasets and performs better when compared with other network representation and feature extraction methods.

Population-based sequencing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis reveals how current population dynamics are shaped by past epidemics

Transmission is a driver of tuberculosis (TB) epidemics in high-burden regions, with assumed negligible impact in low-burden areas. However, we still lack a full characterization of transmission dynamics in settings with similar and different burdens. Genomic epidemiology can greatly help to quantify transmission, but the lack of whole genome sequencing population-based studies has hampered its application. Here, we generate a population-based dataset from Valencia region and compare it with available datasets from different TB-burden settings to reveal transmission dynamics heterogeneity and its public health implications. We sequenced the whole genome of 785 Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains and linked genomes to patient epidemiological data. We use a pairwise distance clustering approach and phylodynamic methods to characterize transmission events over the last 150 years, in different TB-burden regions. Our results underscore significant differences in transmission between low-burden TB settings, i.e., clustering in Valencia region is higher (47.4%) than in Oxfordshire (27%), and similar to a high-burden area as Malawi (49.8%). By modeling times of the transmission links, we observed that settings with high transmission rate are associated with decades of uninterrupted transmission, irrespective of burden. Together, our results reveal that burden and transmission are not necessarily linked due to the role of past epidemics in the ongoing TB incidence, and highlight the need for in-depth characterization of transmission dynamics and specifically tailored TB control strategies.

Transmission history of SARS-CoV-2 in humans and white-tailed deer

The emergence of a novel pathogen in a susceptible population can cause rapid spread of infection. High prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) has been reported in multiple locations, likely resulting from several human-to-deer spillover events followed by deer-to-deer transmission. Knowledge of the risk and direction of SARS-CoV-2 transmission between humans and potential reservoir hosts is essential for effective disease control and prioritisation of interventions. Using genomic data, we reconstruct the transmission history of SARS-CoV-2 in humans and deer, estimate the case finding rate and attempt to infer relative rates of transmission between species. We found no evidence of direct or indirect transmission from deer to human. However, with an estimated case finding rate of only 4.2%, spillback to humans cannot be ruled out. The extensive transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within deer populations and the large number of unsampled cases highlights the need for active surveillance at the human–animal interface.

Understanding drivers of phylogenetic clustering and terminal branch lengths distribution in epidemics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Detecting factors associated with transmission is important to understand disease epidemics, and to design effective public health measures. Clustering and terminal branch lengths (TBL) analyses are commonly applied to genomic data sets of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) to identify sub-populations with increased transmission. Here, I used a simulation-based approach to investigate what epidemiological processes influence the results of clustering and TBL analyses, and whether differences in transmission can be detected with these methods. I simulated MTB epidemics with different dynamics (latency, infectious period, transmission rate, basic reproductive number R0, sampling proportion, sampling period, and molecular clock), and found that all considered factors, except for the length of the infectious period, affect the results of clustering and TBL distributions. I show that standard interpretations of this type of analyses ignore two main caveats: (1) clustering results and TBL depend on many factors that have nothing to do with transmission, (2) clustering results and TBL do not tell anything about whether the epidemic is stable, growing, or shrinking, unless all the additional parameters that influence these metrics are known, or assumed identical between sub-populations. An important consequence is that the optimal SNP threshold for clustering depends on the epidemiological conditions, and that sub-populations with different epidemiological characteristics should not be analyzed with the same threshold. Finally, these results suggest that different clustering rates and TBL distributions, that are found consistently between different MTB lineages, are probably due to intrinsic bacterial factors, and do not indicate necessarily differences in transmission or evolutionary success.

Within-host diversity improves phylogenetic and transmission reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Accurate inference of who infected whom in an infectious disease outbreak is critical for the delivery of effective infection prevention and control. The increased resolution of pathogen whole-genome sequencing has significantly improved our ability to infer transmission events. Despite this, transmission inference often remains limited by the lack of genomic variation between the source case and infected contacts. Although within-host genetic diversity is common among a wide variety of pathogens, conventional whole-genome sequencing phylogenetic approaches to reconstruct outbreaks exclusively use consensus sequences, which consider only the most prevalent nucleotide at each position and therefore fail to capture low frequency variation within samples. We hypothesized that including within-sample variation in a phylogenetic model would help to identify who infected whom in instances in which this was previously impossible. Using whole-genome sequences from SARS-CoV-2 multi-institutional outbreaks as an example, we show how within-sample diversity is stable among repeated serial samples from the same host, is transmitted between those cases with known epidemiological links, and how this improves phylogenetic inference and our understanding of who infected whom. Our technique is applicable to other infectious diseases and has immediate clinical utility in infection prevention and control.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to animals and potential host adaptation

SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of the COVID-19 pandemic, can infect a wide range of mammals. Since its spread in humans, secondary host jumps of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to multiple domestic and wild populations of mammals have been documented. Understanding the extent of adaptation to these animal hosts is critical for assessing the threat that the spillback of animal-adapted SARS-CoV-2 into humans poses. We compare the genomic landscapes of SARS-CoV-2 isolated from animal species to that in humans, profiling the mutational biases indicative of potentially different selective pressures in animals. We focus on viral genomes isolated from mink (Neovison vison) and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) for which multiple independent outbreaks driven by onward animal-to-animal transmission have been reported. We identify five candidate mutations for animal-specific adaptation in mink (NSP9_G37E, Spike_F486L, Spike_N501T, Spike_Y453F, ORF3a_L219V), and one in deer (NSP3a_L1035F), though they appear to confer a minimal advantage for human-to-human transmission. No considerable changes to the mutation rate or evolutionary trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 has resulted from circulation in mink and deer thus far. Our findings suggest that minimal adaptation was required for onward transmission in mink and deer following human-to-animal spillover, highlighting the 'generalist' nature of SARS-CoV-2 as a mammalian pathogen.

Receptivity to malaria: meaning and measurement

"Receptivity" to malaria is a construct developed during the Global Malaria Eradication Programme (GMEP) era. It has been defined in varied ways and no consistent, quantitative definition has emerged over the intervening decades. Despite the lack of consistency in defining this construct, the idea that some areas are more likely to sustain malaria transmission than others has remained important in decision-making in malaria control, planning for malaria elimination and guiding activities during the prevention of re-establishment (POR) period. This manuscript examines current advances in methods of measurement. In the context of a decades long decline in global malaria transmission and an increasing number of countries seeking to eliminate malaria, understanding and measuring malaria receptivity has acquired new relevance.

The role of prisons in disseminating tuberculosis in Brazil: A genomic epidemiology study

Background

Globally, prisons are high-incidence settings for tuberculosis. Yet the role of prisons as reservoirs of M. tuberculosis, propagating epidemics through spillover to surrounding communities, has been difficult to measure directly.

Methods

To quantify the role of prisons in driving wider community M. tuberculosis transmission, we conducted prospective genomic surveillance in Central West Brazil from 2014 to 2019. We whole genome sequenced 1152 M. tuberculosis isolates collected during active and passive surveillance inside and outside prisons and linked genomes to detailed incarceration histories. We applied multiple phylogenetic and genomic clustering approaches and inferred timed transmission trees.

Findings

M. tuberculosis sequences from incarcerated and non-incarcerated people were closely related in a maximum likelihood phylogeny. The majority (70.8%; 46/65) of genomic clusters including people with no incarceration history also included individuals with a recent history of incarceration. Among cases in individuals with no incarceration history, 50.6% (162/320) were in clusters that included individuals with recent incarceration history, suggesting that transmission chains often span prisons and communities. We identified a minimum of 18 highly probable spillover events, M. tuberculosis transmission from people with a recent incarceration history to people with no prior history of incarceration, occurring in the state’s four largest cities and across sampling years. We additionally found that frequent transfers of people between the state’s prisons creates a highly connected prison network that likely disseminates M. tuberculosis across the state.

Interpretation

We developed a framework for measuring spillover from high-incidence environments to surrounding communities by integrating genomic and spatial information. Our findings indicate that, in this setting, prisons serve not only as disease reservoirs, but also disseminate M. tuberculosis across highly connected prison networks, both amplifying and propagating M. tuberculosis risk in surrounding communities.

Funding

Brazil’s National Council for Scientific and Technological Development and US National Institutes of Health.

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis control in Rwanda overcomes a successful clone that causes most disease over a quarter century

SUMMARY BACKGROUND

Multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) poses an important challenge in TB management and control. Rifampicin resistance (RR) is a solid surrogate marker of MDR-TB. We investigated the RR-TB clustering rates, bacterial population dynamics to infer transmission dynamics, and the impact of changes to patient management on these dynamics over 27 years in Rwanda.

METHODS

We analysed whole genome sequences of a longitudinal collection of nationwide RR-TB isolates. The collection covered three important periods: before programmatic management of MDR-TB (PMDT; 1991-2005), the early PMDT phase (2006-2013), in which rifampicin drug-susceptibility testing (DST) was offered to retreatment patients only, and the consolidated phase (2014-2018), in which all bacteriologically confirmed TB patients had rifampicin DST done mostly via Xpert MTB/RIF assay. We constructed clusters based on a 5 SNP cut-off and resistance conferring SNPs. We used Bayesian modelling for dating and population size estimations, TransPhylo to estimate the number of secondary cases infected by each patient, and multivariable logistic regression to assess predictors of being infected by the dominant clone.

RESULTS

Of 308 baseline RR-TB isolates considered for transmission analysis, the clustering analysis grouped 259 (84.1%) isolates into 13 clusters. Within these clusters, a single dominant clone was discovered containing 213 isolates (82.2% of clustered and 69.1% of all RR-TB), which we named the "Rwanda Rifampicin-Resistant clone" (R3clone). R3clone isolates belonged to Ugandan sub-lineage 4.6.1.2 and its rifampicin and isoniazid resistance were conferred by the Ser450Leu mutation in rpoB and Ser315Thr in katG genes, respectively. All R3clone isolates had Pro481Thr, a putative compensatory mutation in the rpoC gene that likely restored its fitness. The R3clone was estimated to first arise in 1987 and its population size increased exponentially through the 1990s', reaching maximum size (∼84%) in early 2000 s', with a declining trend since 2014. Indeed, the highest proportion of R3clone (129/157; 82·2%, 95%CI: 75·3-87·8%) occurred between 2000 and 13, declining to 64·4% (95%CI: 55·1-73·0%) from 2014 onward. We showed that patients with R3clone detected after an unsuccessful category 2 treatment were more likely to generate secondary cases than patients with R3clone detected after an unsuccessful category 1 treatment regimen.

CONCLUSIONS

RR-TB in Rwanda is largely transmitted. Xpert MTB/RIF assay as first diagnostic test avoids unnecessary rounds of rifampicin-based TB treatment, thus preventing ongoing transmission of the dominant R3clone. As PMDT was intensified and all TB patients accessed rifampicin-resistance testing, the nationwide R3clone burden declined. To our knowledge, our findings provide the first evidence supporting the impact of universal DST on the transmission of RR-TB.

The need for linked genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2

Genomic surveillance during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been key to the timely identification of virus variants with important public health consequences, such as variants that can transmit among and cause severe disease in both vaccinated or recovered individuals. The rapid emergence of the Omicron variant highlighted the speed with which the extent of a threat must be assessed. Rapid sequencing and public health institutions' openness to sharing sequence data internationally give an unprecedented opportunity to do this; however, assessing the epidemiological and clinical properties of any new variant remains challenging. Here we highlight a "band of four" key data sources that can help to detect viral variants that threaten COVID-19 management: 1) genetic (virus sequence) data; 2) epidemiological and geographic data; 3) clinical and demographic data; and 4) immunization data. We emphasize the benefits that can be achieved by linking data from these sources and by combining data from these sources with virus sequence data. The considerable challenges of making genomic data available and linked with virus and patient attributes must be balanced against major consequences of not doing so, especially if new variants of concern emerge and spread without timely detection and action.

Methods Combining Genomic and Epidemiological Data in the Reconstruction of Transmission Trees: A Systematic Review

In order to better understand transmission dynamics and appropriately target control and preventive measures, studies have aimed to identify who-infected-whom in actual outbreaks. Numerous reconstruction methods exist, each with their own assumptions, types of data, and inference strategy. Thus, selecting a method can be difficult. Following PRISMA guidelines, we systematically reviewed the literature for methods combing epidemiological and genomic data in transmission tree reconstruction. We identified 22 methods from the 41 selected articles. We defined three families according to how genomic data was handled: a non-phylogenetic family, a sequential phylogenetic family, and a simultaneous phylogenetic family. We discussed methods according to the data needed as well as the underlying sequence mutation, within-host evolution, transmission, and case observation. In the non-phylogenetic family consisting of eight methods, pairwise genetic distances were estimated. In the phylogenetic families, transmission trees were inferred from phylogenetic trees either simultaneously (nine methods) or sequentially (five methods). While a majority of methods (17/22) modeled the transmission process, few (8/22) took into account imperfect case detection. Within-host evolution was generally (7/8) modeled as a coalescent process. These practical and theoretical considerations were highlighted in order to help select the appropriate method for an outbreak.

Widespread sharing of pneumococcal strains in a rural African setting: proximate villages are more likely to share similar strains that are carried at multiple timepoints

The transmission dynamics of Streptococcus pneumoniae in sub-Saharan Africa are poorly understood due to a lack of adequate epidemiological and genomic data. Here we leverage a longitudinal cohort from 21 neighbouring villages in rural Africa to study how closely related strains of S. pneumoniae are shared among infants. We analysed 1074 pneumococcal genomes isolated from 102 infants from 21 villages. Strains were designated for unique serotype and sequence-type combinations, and we arbitrarily defined strain sharing where the pairwise genetic distance between strains could be accounted for by the mean within host intra-strain diversity. We used non-parametric statistical tests to assess the role of spatial distance and prolonged carriage on strain sharing using a logistic regression model. We recorded 458 carriage episodes including 318 (69.4 %) where the carried strain was shared with at least one other infant. The odds of strain sharing varied significantly across villages (χ²=47.5, df=21, P-value <0.001). Infants in close proximity to each other were more likely to be involved in strain sharing, but we also show a considerable amount of strain sharing across longer distances. Close geographic proximity (<5 km) between shared strains was associated with a significantly lower pairwise SNP distance compared to strains shared over longer distances (P-value <0.005). Sustained carriage of a shared strain among the infants was significantly more likely to occur if they resided in villages within a 5 km radius of each other (P-value <0.005, OR 3.7). Conversely, where both infants were transiently colonized by the shared strain, they were more likely to reside in villages separated by over 15 km (P-value <0.05, OR 1.5). PCV7 serotypes were rare (13.5 %) and were significantly less likely to be shared (P-value <0.001, OR −1.07). Strain sharing was more likely to occur over short geographical distances, especially where accompanied by sustained colonization. Our results show that strain sharing is a useful proxy for studying transmission dynamics in an under-sampled population with limited genomic data. This article contains data hosted by Microreact.

Phylogeography and transmission of M. tuberculosis in Moldova: A prospective genomic analysis

BACKGROUND

The incidence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) remains critically high in countries of the former Soviet Union, where >20% of new cases and >50% of previously treated cases have resistance to rifampin and isoniazid. Transmission of resistant strains, as opposed to resistance selected through inadequate treatment of drug-susceptible tuberculosis (TB), is the main driver of incident MDR-TB in these countries.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a prospective, genomic analysis of all culture-positive TB cases diagnosed in 2018 and 2019 in the Republic of Moldova. We used phylogenetic methods to identify putative transmission clusters; spatial and demographic data were analyzed to further describe local transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Of 2,236 participants, 779 (36%) had MDR-TB, of whom 386 (50%) had never been treated previously for TB. Moreover, 92% of multidrug-resistant M. tuberculosis strains belonged to putative transmission clusters. Phylogenetic reconstruction identified 3 large clades that were comprised nearly uniformly of MDR-TB: 2 of these clades were of Beijing lineage, and 1 of Ural lineage, and each had additional distinct clade-specific second-line drug resistance mutations and geographic distributions. Spatial and temporal proximity between pairs of cases within a cluster was associated with greater genomic similarity. Our study lasted for only 2 years, a relatively short duration compared with the natural history of TB, and, thus, the ability to infer the full extent of transmission is limited.

CONCLUSIONS

The MDR-TB epidemic in Moldova is associated with the local transmission of multiple M. tuberculosis strains, including distinct clades of highly drug-resistant M. tuberculosis with varying geographic distributions and drug resistance profiles. This study demonstrates the role of comprehensive genomic surveillance for understanding the transmission of M. tuberculosis and highlights the urgency of interventions to interrupt transmission of highly drug-resistant M. tuberculosis.

Hunting alters viral transmission and evolution in a large carnivore

Hunting can fundamentally alter wildlife population dynamics but the consequences of hunting on pathogen transmission and evolution remain poorly understood. Here, we present a study that leverages a unique landscape-scale quasi-experiment coupled with pathogen-transmission tracing, network simulation and phylodynamics to provide insights into how hunting shapes feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) dynamics in puma (Puma concolor). We show that removing hunting pressure enhances the role of males in transmission, increases the viral population growth rate and increases the role of evolutionary forces on the pathogen compared to when hunting was reinstated. Changes in transmission observed with the removal of hunting could be linked to short-term social changes while the male puma population increased. These findings are supported through comparison with a region with stable hunting management over the same time period. This study shows that routine wildlife management can have impacts on pathogen transmission and evolution not previously considered.

TNet: Transmission Network Inference Using Within-Host Strain Diversity and its Application to Geographical Tracking of COVID-19 Spread

The inference of disease transmission networks is an important problem in epidemiology. One popular approach for building transmission networks is to reconstruct a phylogenetic tree using sequences from disease strains sampled from infected hosts and infer transmissions based on this tree. However, most existing phylogenetic approaches for transmission network inference are highly computationally intensive and cannot take within-host strain diversity into account. Here, we introduce a new phylogenetic approach for inferring transmission networks, TNet, that addresses these limitations. TNet uses multiple strain sequences from each sampled host to infer transmissions and is simpler and more accurate than existing approaches. Furthermore, TNet is highly scalable and able to distinguish between ambiguous and unambiguous transmission inferences. We evaluated TNet on a large collection of 560 simulated transmission networks of various sizes and diverse host, sequence, and transmission characteristics, as well as on 10 real transmission datasets with known transmission histories. Our results show that TNet outperforms two other recently developed methods, phyloscanner and SharpTNI, that also consider within-host strain diversity. We also applied TNet to a large collection of SARS-CoV-2 genomes sampled from infected individuals in many countries around the world, demonstrating how our inference framework can be adapted to accurately infer geographical transmission networks. TNet is freely available from https://compbio.engr.uconn.edu/software/TNet/.