Phylogeny Estimation by Integration over Isolation with Migration Models

A structured coalescent model reveals deep ancestral structure shared by all modern humans

Understanding the history of admixture events and population size changes leading to modern humans is central to human evolutionary genetics. Here we introduce a coalescence-based hidden Markov model, cobraa, that explicitly represents an ancestral population split and rejoin, and demonstrate its application on simulated and real data across multiple species. Using cobraa, we present evidence for an extended period of structure in the history of all modern humans, in which two ancestral populations that diverged ~1.5 million years ago came together in an admixture event ~300 thousand years ago, in a ratio of ~80:20%. Immediately after their divergence, we detect a strong bottleneck in the major ancestral population. We inferred regions of the present-day genome derived from each ancestral population, finding that material from the minority correlates strongly with distance to coding sequence, suggesting it was deleterious against the majority background. Moreover, we found a strong correlation between regions of majority ancestry and human-Neanderthal or human-Denisovan divergence, suggesting the majority population was also ancestral to those archaic humans.

Hierarchical Heuristic Species Delimitation Under the Multispecies Coalescent Model with Migration

The multispecies coalescent (MSC) model accommodates genealogical fluctuations across the genome and provides a natural framework for comparative analysis of genomic sequence data from closely related species to infer the history of species divergence and gene flow. Given a set of populations, hypotheses of species delimitation (and species phylogeny) may be formulated as instances of MSC models (e.g., MSC for 1 species versus MSC for 2 species) and compared using Bayesian model selection. This approach, implemented in the program bpp, has been found to be prone to over-splitting. Alternatively, heuristic criteria based on population parameters (such as population split times, population sizes, and migration rates) estimated from genomic data may be used to delimit species. Here, we develop hierarchical merge and split algorithms for heuristic species delimitation based on the genealogical divergence index (gdi) and implement them in a Python pipeline called hhsd. We characterize the behavior of the gdi under a few simple scenarios of gene flow. We apply the new approaches to a dataset simulated under a model of isolation by distance as well as 3 empirical datasets. Our tests suggest that the new approaches produced sensible results and were less prone to oversplitting. We discuss possible strategies for accommodating paraphyletic species in the hierarchical algorithm, as well as the challenges of species delimitation based on heuristic criteria.

Coastal dunes as drivers of genetic differentiation in the honeypot ant Myrmecocystus baja (Formicidae: Formicinae)

Coastal dunes are unique habitats, threatened by human activities. In biogeographical terms, coastal dunes are habitat islands, being discrete and distinct patches of similar habitat among themselves, separated from each other by a different type of habitat. Furthermore, coastal dunes harbor endemic species, adapted to living solely in the habitats found on specific dune systems. For example, the honeypot ant Myrmecocystus baja is endemic and restricted to coastal dunes of Mexico's Baja California Pacific coast. This ecological and biogeographical scenario led to the questions whether their geographical isolation is reflected in their genetic diversity and structuring, and how their demographic history is related with the formation of the dune system habitats. To answer these questions, population genetic, isolation-with-migration, and phylogeographical analyses were carried out, based on mitochondrial and five nuclear intronic markers. Minimal gene flow was detected only between two of the dune systems sampled; otherwise, the M. baja populations were found to be isolated and genetically structured, and their divergence generally pre-dated the modern-day dune systems. It is therefore highly likely that these ants were already present in paleodunes and that each of the populations was established from founder populations as the dunes formed. These findings highlight the importance of coastal dunes for species such as the honeypot ant from Baja California, in promoting genetic differentiation.

Genomic Evidence for the Complex Evolutionary History of Macaques (Genus Macaca)

The genus Macaca is widely distributed, occupies a variety of habitats, shows diverse phenotypic characteristics, and is one of the best-studied genera of nonhuman primates. Here, we reported five re-sequencing Macaca genomes, including one M. cyclopis, one M. fuscata, one M. thibetana, one M. silenus, and one M. sylvanus. Together with published genomes of other macaque species, we combined 20 genome sequences of 10 macaque species to investigate the gene introgression and genetic differences among the species. The network analysis of the SNV-fragment trees indicates a reticular phylogeny of macaque species. Combining the results from various analytical methods, we identified extensive ancient introgression events among macaque species. The multiple introgression signals between different species groups were also observed, such as between fascicularis group species and silenus group species. However, gene flow signals between fascicularis and sinica group were not as strong as those between fascicularis group and silenus group. On the other hand, the unidirect gene flow in M. arctoides probably occurred between the progenitor of M. arctoides and the common ancestor of fascicularis group. Our study also shows that the genetic backgrounds and genetic diversity of different macaques vary dramatically among species, even among populations of the same species. In conclusion, using whole genome sequences and multiple methods, we have studied the evolutionary history of the genus Macaca and provided evidence for extensive introgression among the species.

Computationally Efficient Demographic History Inference from Allele Frequencies with Supervised Machine Learning

Inferring past demographic history of natural populations from genomic data is of central concern in many studies across research fields. Previously, our group had developed dadi, a widely used demographic history inference method based on the allele frequency spectrum (AFS) and maximum composite-likelihood optimization. However, dadi's optimization procedure can be computationally expensive. Here, we present donni (demography optimization via neural network inference), a new inference method based on dadi that is more efficient while maintaining comparable inference accuracy. For each dadi-supported demographic model, donni simulates the expected AFS for a range of model parameters then trains a set of Mean Variance Estimation neural networks using the simulated AFS. Trained networks can then be used to instantaneously infer the model parameters from future genomic data summarized by an AFS. We demonstrate that for many demographic models, donni can infer some parameters, such as population size changes, very well and other parameters, such as migration rates and times of demographic events, fairly well. Importantly, donni provides both parameter and confidence interval estimates from input AFS with accuracy comparable to parameters inferred by dadi's likelihood optimization while bypassing its long and computationally intensive evaluation process. donni's performance demonstrates that supervised machine learning algorithms may be a promising avenue for developing more sustainable and computationally efficient demographic history inference methods.

Computationally efficient demographic history inference from allele frequencies with supervised machine learning

Inferring past demographic history of natural populations from genomic data is of central concern in many studies across research fields. Previously, our group had developed dadi, a widely used demographic history inference method based on the allele frequency spectrum (AFS) and maximum composite likelihood optimization. However, dadi's optimization procedure can be computationally expensive. Here, we developed donni (demography optimization via neural network inference), a new inference method based on dadi that is more efficient while maintaining comparable inference accuracy. For each dadi-supported demographic model, donni simulates the expected AFS for a range of model parameters then trains a set of Mean Variance Estimation neural networks using the simulated AFS. Trained networks can then be used to instantaneously infer the model parameters from future input data AFS. We demonstrated that for many demographic models, donni can infer some parameters, such as population size changes, very well and other parameters, such as migration rates and times of demographic events, fairly well. Importantly, donni provides both parameter and confidence interval estimates from input AFS with accuracy comparable to parameters inferred by dadi's likelihood optimization while bypassing its long and computationally intensive evaluation process. donni's performance demonstrates that supervised machine learning algorithms may be a promising avenue for developing more sustainable and computationally efficient demographic history inference methods.

Estimation of species divergence times in presence of cross-species gene flow

Cross-species introgression can have significant impacts on phylogenomic reconstruction of species divergence events. Here, we used simulations to show how the presence of even a small amount of introgression can bias divergence time estimates when gene flow is ignored in the analysis. Using advances in analytical methods under the multispecies coalescent (MSC) model, we demonstrate that by accounting for incomplete lineage sorting and introgression using large phylogenomic data sets this problem can be avoided. The multispecies-coalescent-with-introgression (MSci) model is capable of accurately estimating both divergence times and ancestral effective population sizes, even when only a single diploid individual per species is sampled. We characterize some general expectations for biases in divergence time estimation under three different scenarios: 1) introgression between sister species, 2) introgression between non-sister species, and 3) introgression from an unsampled (i.e., ghost) outgroup lineage. We also conducted simulations under the isolation-with-migration (IM) model and found that the MSci model assuming episodic gene flow was able to accurately estimate species divergence times despite high levels of continuous gene flow. We estimated divergence times under the MSC and MSci models from two published empirical datasets with previous evidence of introgression, one of 372 target-enrichment loci from baobabs (Adansonia), and another of 1000 transcriptome loci from 14 species of the tomato relative, Jaltomata. The empirical analyses not only confirm our findings from simulations, demonstrating that the MSci model can reliably estimate divergence times but also show that divergence time estimation under the MSC can be robust to the presence of small amounts of introgression in empirical datasets with extensive taxon sampling. [divergence time; gene flow; hybridization; introgression; MSci model; multispecies coalescent].

Multiple Sources of Uncertainty Confound Inference of Historical Human Generation Times

Wang et al. (2023) recently proposed an approach to infer the history of human generation intervals from changes in mutation profiles over time. As the relative proportions of different mutation types depend on the ages of parents, binning variants by the time they arose allows for the inference of changes in average paternal and maternal generation intervals. Applying this approach to published allele age estimates, Wang et al. (2023) inferred long-lasting sex differences in average generation times and surprisingly found that ancestral generation times of West African populations remained substantially higher than those of Eurasian populations extending tens of thousands of generations into the past. Here, we argue that the results and interpretations in Wang et al. (2023) are primarily driven by noise and biases in input data and a lack of validation using independent approaches for estimating allele ages. With the recent development of methods to reconstruct genome-wide gene genealogies, coalescence times, and allele ages, we caution that downstream analyses may be strongly influenced by uncharacterized biases in their output.

Power of Bayesian and Heuristic Tests to Detect Cross-Species Introgression with Reference to Gene Flow in the Tamias quadrivittatus Group of North American Chipmunks

In the past two decades, genomic data have been widely used to detect historical gene flow between species in a variety of plants and animals. The Tamias quadrivittatus group of North America chipmunks, which originated through a series of rapid speciation events, are known to undergo massive amounts of mitochondrial introgression. Yet in a recent analysis of targeted nuclear loci from the group, no evidence for cross-species introgression was detected, indicating widespread cytonuclear discordance. The study used the heuristic method HYDE to detect gene flow, which may suffer from low power. Here we use the Bayesian method implemented in the program BPP to re-analyze these data. We develop a Bayesian test of introgression, calculating the Bayes factor via the Savage-Dickey density ratio using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sample under the model of introgression. We take a stepwise approach to constructing an introgression model by adding introgression events onto a well-supported binary species tree. The analysis detected robust evidence for multiple ancient introgression events affecting the nuclear genome, with introgression probabilities reaching 63%. We estimate population parameters and highlight the fact that species divergence times may be seriously underestimated if ancient cross-species gene flow is ignored in the analysis. We examine the assumptions and performance of HYDE and demonstrate that it lacks power if gene flow occurs between sister lineages or if the mode of gene flow does not match the assumed hybrid-speciation model with symmetrical population sizes. Our analyses highlight the power of likelihood-based inference of cross-species gene flow using genomic sequence data. [Bayesian test; BPP; chipmunks; introgression; MSci; multispecies coalescent; Savage-Dickey density ratio.].

Assessing the impact of recombination on the estimation of isolation-with-migration models using genomic data: a simulation study

Recombination events complicate the evolutionary history of populations and species and have a significant impact on the inference of isolation-with-migration (IM) models. However, several existing methods have been developed, assuming no recombination within a locus and free recombination between loci. In this study, we investigated the effect of recombination on the estimation of IM models using genomic data. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the consistency of the parameter estimators with up to 1,000 loci and analyze true gene trees to examine the sources of errors in estimating the IM model parameters. The results showed that the presence of recombination led to biased estimates of the IM model parameters, with population sizes being more overestimated and migration rates being more underestimated as the number of loci increased. The magnitude of the biases tended to increase with the recombination rates when using 100 or more loci. On the other hand, the estimation of splitting times remained consistent as the number of loci increased. In the absence of recombination, the estimators of the IM model parameters remained consistent.

Genomic Insights into Adaptation to Karst Limestone and Incipient Speciation in East Asian Platycarya spp. (Juglandaceae)

When challenged by similar environmental conditions, phylogenetically distant taxa often independently evolve similar traits (convergent evolution). Meanwhile, adaptation to extreme habitats might lead to divergence between taxa that are otherwise closely related. These processes have long existed in the conceptual sphere, yet molecular evidence, especially for woody perennials, is scarce. The karst endemic Platycarya longipes and its only congeneric species, Platycarya strobilacea, which is widely distributed in the mountains in East Asia, provide an ideal model for examining the molecular basis of both convergent evolution and speciation. Using chromosome-level genome assemblies of both species, and whole-genome resequencing data from 207 individuals spanning their entire distribution range, we demonstrate that P. longipes and P. strobilacea form two species-specific clades, which diverged around 2.09 million years ago. We find an excess of genomic regions exhibiting extreme interspecific differentiation, potentially due to long-term selection in P. longipes, likely contributing to the incipient speciation of the genus Platycarya. Interestingly, our results unveil underlying karst adaptation in both copies of the calcium influx channel gene TPC1 in P. longipes. TPC1 has previously been identified as a selective target in certain karst-endemic herbs, indicating a convergent adaptation to high calcium stress among karst-endemic species. Our study reveals the genic convergence of TPC1 among karst endemics and the driving forces underneath the incipient speciation of the two Platycarya lineages.

Phylogeography of the temperate grassland plant Tephroseris kirilowii (Asteraceae) inferred from multiplexed inter-simple sequence repeat genotyping by sequencing (MIG-seq) data

A group of temperate grassland plant species termed the "Mansen elements" occurs in Japan and is widely distributed in the grasslands of continental East Asia. It has been hypothesized that these species are continental grassland relicts in Japan that stretch back to a colder age, but their migration history has not been elucidated. To assess the migration history of the Mansen elements, we performed phylogeographic analyses of Tephroseris kirilowii, a member of this group, using single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) obtained from multiplexed inter-simple sequence repeat genotyping by sequencing (MIG-seq). It was estimated that the Japanese populations of T. kirilowii were divided from those of continental East Asia at 25.2 thousand years ago (ka) with 95% highest probability density interval (HPD) of 15.3-40.0 ka and that Japanese clades first diverged at 20.2 ka with 95% HPD of 10.4-30.1 ka. As the climatically suitable range during the last glacial maximum (LGM) estimated using ecological niche modeling (ENM) was limited in Japan and there was a slight genetic differentiation among Japanese populations, a post-glacial expansion of T. kirilowii in the Japanese Archipelago was indicated.

A weakly structured stem for human origins in Africa

Despite broad agreement that Homo sapiens originated in Africa, considerable uncertainty surrounds specific models of divergence and migration across the continent1. Progress is hampered by a shortage of fossil and genomic data, as well as variability in previous estimates of divergence times1. Here we seek to discriminate among such models by considering linkage disequilibrium and diversity-based statistics, optimized for rapid, complex demographic inference2. We infer detailed demographic models for populations across Africa, including eastern and western representatives, and newly sequenced whole genomes from 44 Nama (Khoe-San) individuals from southern Africa. We infer a reticulated African population history in which present-day population structure dates back to Marine Isotope Stage 5. The earliest population divergence among contemporary populations occurred 120,000 to 135,000 years ago and was preceded by links between two or more weakly differentiated ancestral Homo populations connected by gene flow over hundreds of thousands of years. Such weakly structured stem models explain patterns of polymorphism that had previously been attributed to contributions from archaic hominins in Africa2-7. In contrast to models with archaic introgression, we predict that fossil remains from coexisting ancestral populations should be genetically and morphologically similar, and that only an inferred 1-4% of genetic differentiation among contemporary human populations can be attributed to genetic drift between stem populations. We show that model misspecification explains the variation in previous estimates of divergence times, and argue that studying a range of models is key to making robust inferences about deep history.

Evolutionary Genetics and Admixture in African Populations

As the ancestral homeland of our species, Africa contains elevated levels of genetic diversity and substantial population structure. Importantly, African genomes are heterogeneous: They contain mixtures of multiple ancestries, each of which have experienced different evolutionary histories. In this review, we view population genetics through the lens of admixture, highlighting how multiple demographic events have shaped African genomes. Each of these historical vignettes paints a recurring picture of population divergence followed by secondary contact. First, we give a brief overview of genetic variation in Africa and examine deep population structure within Africa, including the evidence of ancient introgression from archaic "ghost" populations. Second, we describe the genetic legacies of admixture events that have occurred during the past 10,000 years. This includes gene flow between different click-speaking Khoe-San populations, the stepwise spread of pastoralism from eastern to southern Africa, multiple migrations of Bantu speakers across the continent, as well as admixture from the Middle East and Europe into the Sahel region and North Africa. Furthermore, the genomic signatures of more recent admixture can be found in the Cape Peninsula and throughout the African diaspora. Third, we highlight how natural selection has shaped patterns of genetic variation across the continent, noting that gene flow provides a potent source of adaptive variation and that selective pressures vary across Africa. Finally, we explore the biomedical implications of population structure in Africa on health and disease and call for more ethically conducted studies of genetic variation in Africa.

Inference of Gene Flow between Species under Misspecified Models

Genomic sequence data provide a rich source of information about the history of species divergence and interspecific hybridization or introgression. Despite recent advances in genomics and statistical methods, it remains challenging to infer gene flow, and as a result, one may have to estimate introgression rates and times under misspecified models. Here we use mathematical analysis and computer simulation to examine estimation bias and issues of interpretation when the model of gene flow is misspecified in analysis of genomic datasets, for example, if introgression is assigned to the wrong lineages. In the case of two species, we establish a correspondence between the migration rate in the continuous migration model and the introgression probability in the introgression model. When gene flow occurs continuously through time but in the analysis is assumed to occur at a fixed time point, common evolutionary parameters such as species divergence times are surprisingly well estimated. However, the time of introgression tends to be estimated towards the recent end of the period of continuous gene flow. When introgression events are assigned incorrectly to the parental or daughter lineages, introgression times tend to collapse onto species divergence times, with introgression probabilities underestimated. Overall, our analyses suggest that the simple introgression model is useful for extracting information concerning between-specific gene flow and divergence even when the model may be misspecified. However, for reliable inference of gene flow it is important to include multiple samples per species, in particular, from hybridizing species.

Asymmetrical lineage introgression and recombination in populations of Aspergillus flavus: Implications for biological control

Aspergillus flavus is an agriculturally important fungus that causes ear rot of maize and produces aflatoxins, of which B1 is the most carcinogenic naturally-produced compound. In the US, the management of aflatoxins includes the deployment of biological control agents that comprise two nonaflatoxigenic A. flavus strains, either Afla-Guard (member of lineage IB) or AF36 (lineage IC). We used genotyping-by-sequencing to examine the influence of both biocontrol agents on native populations of A. flavus in cornfields in Texas, North Carolina, Arkansas, and Indiana. This study examined up to 27,529 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a total of 815 A. flavus isolates, and 353 genome-wide haplotypes sampled before biocontrol application, three months after biocontrol application, and up to three years after initial application. Here, we report that the two distinct A. flavus evolutionary lineages IB and IC differ significantly in their frequency distributions across states. We provide evidence of increased unidirectional gene flow from lineage IB into IC, inferred to be due to the applied Afla-Guard biocontrol strain. Genetic exchange and recombination of biocontrol strains with native strains was detected in as little as three months after biocontrol application and up to one and three years later. There was limited inter-lineage migration in the untreated fields. These findings suggest that biocontrol products that include strains from lineage IB offer the greatest potential for sustained reductions in aflatoxin levels over several years. This knowledge has important implications for developing new biocontrol strategies.

Sequence Capture From Historical Museum Specimens: Maximizing Value for Population and Phylogenomic Studies

The application of high-throughput, short-read sequencing to degraded DNA has greatly increased the feasibility of generating genomic data from historical museum specimens. While many published studies report successful sequencing results from historical specimens; in reality, success and quality of sequence data can be highly variable. To examine predictors of sequencing quality, and methodological approaches to improving data accuracy, we generated and analyzed genomic sequence data from 115 historically collected museum specimens up to 180 years old. Data span both population genomic and phylogenomic scales, including historically collected specimens from 34 specimens of four species of Australian rock-wallabies (genus Petrogale) and 92 samples from 79 specimens of Australo-Papuan murine rodents (subfamily Murinae). For historical rodent specimens, where the focus was sampling for phylogenomics, we found that regardless of specimen age, DNA sequence libraries prepared from toe pad or bone subsamples performed significantly better than those taken from the skin (in terms of proportion of reads on target, number of loci captured, and data accuracy). In total, 93% of DNA libraries from toe pad or bone subsamples resulted in reliable data for phylogenetic inference, compared to 63% of skin subsamples. For skin subsamples, proportion of reads on target weakly correlated with collection year. Then using population genomic data from rock-wallaby skins as a test case, we found substantial improvement in final data quality by mapping to a high-quality “closest sister” de novo assembly from fresh tissues, compared to mapping to a sample-specific historical de novo assembly. Choice of mapping approach also affected final estimates of the number of segregating sites and Watterson's θ, both important parameters for population genomic inference. The incorporation of accurate and reliable sequence data from historical specimens has important outcomes for evolutionary studies at both population and phylogenomic scales. By assessing the outcomes of different approaches to specimen subsampling, library preparation and bioinformatic processing, our results provide a framework for increasing sequencing success for irreplaceable historical specimens.

Population-genomic analyses reveal bottlenecks and asymmetric introgression from Persian into iron walnut during domestication

Background

Persian walnut, Juglans regia, occurs naturally from Greece to western China, while its closest relative, the iron walnut, Juglans sigillata, is endemic in southwest China; both species are cultivated for their nuts and wood. Here, we infer their demographic histories and the time and direction of possible hybridization and introgression between them.

Results

We use whole-genome resequencing data, different population-genetic approaches (PSMC and GONE), and isolation-with-migration models (IMa3) on individuals from Europe, Iran, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and China. IMa3 analyses indicate that the two species diverged from each other by 0.85 million years ago, with unidirectional gene flow from eastern J. regia and its ancestor into J. sigillata, including the shell-thickness gene. Within J. regia, a western group, located from Europe to Iran, and an eastern group with individuals from northern China, experienced dramatically declining population sizes about 80 generations ago (roughly 2400 to 4000 years), followed by an expansion at about 40 generations, while J. sigillata had a constant population size from about 100 to 20 generations ago, followed by a rapid decline.

Conclusions

Both J. regia and J. sigillata appear to have suffered sudden population declines during their domestication, suggesting that the bottleneck scenario of plant domestication may well apply in at least some perennial crop species. Introgression from introduced J. regia appears to have played a role in the domestication of J. sigillata.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13059-022-02720-z.

The Syngameon Enigma

Despite their evolutionary relevance, multispecies networks or syngameons are rarely reported in the literature. Discovering how syngameons form and how they are maintained can give insight into processes such as adaptive radiations, island colonizations, and the creation of new hybrid lineages. Understanding these complex hybridization networks is even more pressing with anthropogenic climate change, as syngameons may have unique synergistic properties that will allow participating species to persist. The formation of a syngameon is not insurmountable, as several ways for a syngameon to form have been proposed, depending mostly on the magnitude and frequency of gene flow events, as well as the relatedness of its participants. Episodic hybridization with small amounts of introgression may keep syngameons stable and protect their participants from any detrimental effects of gene flow. As genomic sequencing becomes cheaper and more species are included in studies, the number of known syngameons is expected to increase. Syngameons must be considered in conservation efforts as the extinction of one participating species may have detrimental effects on the survival of all other species in the network.

Divergence time estimation using ddRAD data and an isolation-with-migration model applied to water vole populations of Arvicola

Molecular dating methods of population splits are crucial in evolutionary biology, but they present important difficulties due to the complexity of the genealogical relationships of genes and past migrations between populations. Using the double digest restriction-site associated DNA (ddRAD) technique and an isolation-with-migration (IM) model, we studied the evolutionary history of water vole populations of the genus Arvicola, a group of complex evolution with fossorial and semi-aquatic ecotypes. To do this, we first estimated mutation rates of ddRAD loci using a phylogenetic approach. An IM model was then used to estimate split times and other relevant demographic parameters. A set of 300 ddRAD loci that included 85 calibrated loci resulted in good mixing and model convergence. The results showed that the two populations of A. scherman present in the Iberian Peninsula split 34 thousand years ago, during the last glaciation. In addition, the much greater divergence from its sister species, A. amphibius, may help to clarify the controversial taxonomy of the genus. We conclude that this approach, based on ddRAD data and an IM model, is highly useful for analyzing the origin of populations and species.

Multispecies coalescent and its applications to infer species phylogenies and cross-species gene flow

Multispecies coalescent (MSC) is the extension of the single-population coalescent model to multiple species. It integrates the phylogenetic process of species divergences and the population genetic process of coalescent, and provides a powerful framework for a number of inference problems using genomic sequence data from multiple species, including estimation of species divergence times and population sizes, estimation of species trees accommodating discordant gene trees, inference of cross-species gene flow and species delimitation. In this review, we introduce the major features of the MSC model, discuss full-likelihood and heuristic methods of species tree estimation and summarize recent methodological advances in inference of cross-species gene flow. We discuss the statistical and computational challenges in the field and research directions where breakthroughs may be likely in the next few years.

Addressing alpine plant phylogeography using integrative distributional, demographic and coalescent modeling

Phylogeographic studies of alpine plants have evolved considerably in the last two decades from ad hoc interpretations of genetic data to statistical model-based approaches. In this review we outline the developments in alpine plant phylogeography focusing on the recent approach of integrative distributional, demographic and coalescent (iDDC) modeling. By integrating distributional data with spatially explicit demographic modeling and subsequent coalescent simulations, the history of alpine species can be inferred and long-standing hypotheses, such as species-specific responses to climate change or survival on nunataks during the last glacial maximum, can be efficiently tested as exemplified by available case studies. We also discuss future prospects and improvements of iDDC.

Evolutionary history of the mediterranean Pinus halepensis-brutia species complex using gene-resequencing and transcriptomic approaches

Complementary gene-resequencing and transcriptomic approaches reveal contrasted evolutionary histories in a species complex. Pinus halepensis and Pinus brutia are closely related species that can intercross, but occupy different geographical ranges and bioclimates. To study the evolution of this species complex and to provide genomic resources for further research, we produce and analyze two new complementary sets of genetic resources: (i) a set of 172 re-sequenced genomic target loci analyzed in 45 individuals, and (ii) a set of 11 transcriptome assemblies. These two datasets provide insights congruent with previous studies: P. brutia displays high level of genetic diversity and no genetic sub-structure, while P. halepensis shows three main genetic clusters, the western Mediterranean and North African clusters displaying much lower genetic diversity than the eastern Mediterranean cluster, the latter cluster having similar genetic diversity to P. brutia. In addition, these datasets provide new insights on the timing of the species-complex history: the two species would have split at the end of the tertiary, and the changing climatic conditions of the Mediterranean region at the end of the Tertiary-beginning of the Quaternary, together with the distinct species tolerance to harsh climatic conditions would have resulted in different geographic distributions, demographic histories and genetic patterns of the two pines. The multiple glacial-interglacial cycles during the Quaternary would have led to the expansion of P. brutia in the Middle East, while P. halepensis would have been through bottlenecks. The last glaciations, from 0.6 Mya on, would have affected further the Western genetic pool of P. halepensis.

The Pop-Gen Pipeline Platform: A Software Platform for Population Genomic Analyses

The Pop-Gen Pipeline Platform (PPP) is a software platform for population genomic analyses. The PPP was designed as a collection of scripts that facilitate common population genomic workflows in a consistent and standardized Python environment. Functions were developed to encompass entire workflows, including input preparation, file format conversion, various population genomic analyses, and output generation. The platform has also been developed with reproducibility and extensibility of analyses in mind. The PPP is an open-source package that is available for download and use at https://ppp.readthedocs.io/en/latest/PPP_pages/install.html.

Pleistocene divergence in the absence of gene flow among populations of a viviparous reptile with intraspecific variation in sex determination

Polymorphisms can lead to genetic isolation if there is differential mating success among conspecifics divergent for a trait. Polymorphism for sex-determining system may fall into this category, given strong selection for the production of viable males and females and the low success of heterogametic hybrids when sex chromosomes differ (Haldane's rule). Here we investigated whether populations exhibiting polymorphism for sex determination are genetically isolated, using the viviparous snow skink Carinascincus ocellatus. While a comparatively high elevation population has genotypic sex determination, in a lower elevation population there is an additional temperature component to sex determination. Based on 11,107 SNP markers, these populations appear genetically isolated. "Isolation with Migration" analysis also suggests these populations diverged in the absence of gene flow, across a period encompassing multiple Pleistocene glaciations and likely greater geographic proximity of populations. However, further experiments are required to establish whether genetic isolation may be a cause or consequence of differences in sex determination. Given the influence of temperature on sex in one lineage, we also discuss the implications for the persistence of this polymorphism under climate change.

The deep population history in Africa

Africa is the continent with the greatest genetic diversity among humans and the level of diversity is further enhanced by incorporating non-majority groups, which are often understudied. Many of today's minority populations historically practiced foraging lifestyles, which were the only subsistence strategies prior to the rise of agriculture and pastoralism, but only a few groups practicing these strategies remain today. Genomic investigations of Holocene human remains excavated across the African continent show that the genetic landscape was vastly different compared to today's genetic landscape and that many groups that today are population isolate inhabited larger regions in the past. It is becoming clear that there are periods of isolation among groups and geographic areas, but also genetic contact over large distances throughout human history in Africa. Genomic information from minority populations and from prehistoric remains provide an invaluable source of information on the human past, in particular deep human population history, as Holocene large-scale population movements obscure past patterns of population structure. Here we revisit questions on the nature and time of the radiation of early humans in Africa, the extent of gene-flow among human populations as well as introgression from archaic and extinct lineages on the continent.

A Bayesian Implementation of the Multispecies Coalescent Model with Introgression for Phylogenomic Analysis

Recent analyses suggest that cross-species gene flow or introgression is common in nature, especially during species divergences. Genomic sequence data can be used to infer introgression events and to estimate the timing and intensity of introgression, providing an important means to advance our understanding of the role of gene flow in speciation. Here, we implement the multispecies-coalescent-with-introgression model, an extension of the multispecies-coalescent model to incorporate introgression, in our Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo program Bpp. The multispecies-coalescent-with-introgression model accommodates deep coalescence (or incomplete lineage sorting) and introgression and provides a natural framework for inference using genomic sequence data. Computer simulation confirms the good statistical properties of the method, although hundreds or thousands of loci are typically needed to estimate introgression probabilities reliably. Reanalysis of data sets from the purple cone spruce confirms the hypothesis of homoploid hybrid speciation. We estimated the introgression probability using the genomic sequence data from six mosquito species in the Anopheles gambiae species complex, which varies considerably across the genome, likely driven by differential selection against introgressed alleles.

Ancestral Sequence Reconstruction: From Chemical Paleogenetics to Maximum Likelihood Algorithms and Beyond

As both a computational and an experimental endeavor, ancestral sequence reconstruction remains a timely and important technique. Modern approaches to conduct ancestral sequence reconstruction for proteins are built upon a conceptual framework from journal founder Emile Zuckerkandl. On top of this, work on maximum likelihood phylogenetics published in Journal of Molecular Evolution in 1996 was one of the first approaches for generating maximum likelihood ancestral sequences of proteins. From its computational history, future model development needs as well as potential applications in areas as diverse as computational systems biology, molecular community ecology, infectious disease therapeutics and other biomedical applications, and biotechnology are discussed. From its past in this journal, there is a bright future for ancestral sequence reconstruction in the field of evolutionary biology.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Species Trees from Gene Trees in the Presence of Ancestral Population Structure

Though large multilocus genomic data sets have led to overall improvements in phylogenetic inference, they have posed the new challenge of addressing conflicting signals across the genome. In particular, ancestral population structure, which has been uncovered in a number of diverse species, can skew gene tree frequencies, thereby hindering the performance of species tree estimators. Here we develop a novel maximum likelihood method, termed TASTI (Taxa with Ancestral structure Species Tree Inference), that can infer phylogenies under such scenarios, and find that it has increasing accuracy with increasing numbers of input gene trees, contrasting with the relatively poor performances of methods not tailored for ancestral structure. Moreover, we propose a supertree approach that allows TASTI to scale computationally with increasing numbers of input taxa. We use genetic simulations to assess TASTI's performance in the three- and four-taxon settings and demonstrate the application of TASTI on a six-species Afrotropical mosquito data set. Finally, we have implemented TASTI in an open-source software package for ease of use by the scientific community.

Further resolution of the house mouse (Mus musculus) phylogeny by integration over isolation-with-migration histories

BACKGROUND

The three main subspecies of house mice, Mus musculus castaneus, Mus musculus domesticus, and Mus musculus musculus, are estimated to have diverged ~ 350-500KYA. Resolution of the details of their evolutionary history is complicated by their relatively recent divergence, ongoing gene flow among the subspecies, and complex demographic histories. Previous studies have been limited to some extent by the number of loci surveyed and/or by the scope of the method used. Here, we apply a method (IMa3) that provides an estimate of a population phylogeny while allowing for complex histories of gene exchange.

RESULTS

Results strongly support a topology with M. m. domesticus as sister to M. m. castaneus and M. m. musculus. In addition, we find evidence of gene flow between all pairs of subspecies, but that gene flow is most restricted from M. m. musculus into M. m. domesticus. Estimates of other key parameters are dependent on assumptions regarding generation time and mutation rate in house mice. Nevertheless, our results support previous findings that the effective population size, Ne, of M. m. castaneus is larger than that of the other two subspecies, that the three subspecies began diverging ~ 130 - 420KYA, and that the time between divergence events was short.

CONCLUSIONS

Joint demographic and phylogenetic analyses of genomic data provide a clearer picture of the history of divergence in house mice.

Species diversity and phylogeography of Cornus kousa (Asian dogwood) captured by genomic and genic microsatellites

Cornus kousa (Asian dogwood), an East Asia native tree, is the most economically important species of the dogwood genus, owing to its desirable horticultural traits and ability to hybridize with North America-native dogwoods. To assess the species genetic diversity and to better inform the ongoing and future breeding efforts, we assembled an herbarium and arboretum collection of 131 noncultivated C. kousa specimens. Genotyping and capillary electrophoresis analyses of our C. kousa collection with the newly developed genic and published nuclear genomic microsatellites permitted assessment of genetic diversity and evolutionary history of the species. Regardless of the microsatellite type used, the study yielded generally similar insights into the C. kousa diversity with subtle differences deriving from and underlining the marker used. The accrued evidence pointed to the species distinct genetic pools related to the plant country of origin. This can be helpful in the development of the commercial cultivars for this important ornamental crop with increased pyramided utility traits. Analyses of the C. kousa evolutionary history using the accrued genotyping datasets pointed to an unsampled ancestor population, possibly now extinct, as per the phylogeography of the region. To our knowledge, there are few studies utilizing the same gDNA collection to compare performance of genomic and genic microsatellites. This is the first detailed report on C. kousa species diversity and evolutionary history inference.

Phylogenetic tree building in the genomic age

Knowing phylogenetic relationships among species is fundamental for many studies in biology. An accurate phylogenetic tree underpins our understanding of the major transitions in evolution, such as the emergence of new body plans or metabolism, and is key to inferring the origin of new genes, detecting molecular adaptation, understanding morphological character evolution and reconstructing demographic changes in recently diverged species. Although data are ever more plentiful and powerful analysis methods are available, there remain many challenges to reliable tree building. Here, we discuss the major steps of phylogenetic analysis, including identification of orthologous genes or proteins, multiple sequence alignment, and choice of substitution models and inference methodologies. Understanding the different sources of errors and the strategies to mitigate them is essential for assembling an accurate tree of life.

mstree: A Multispecies Coalescent Approach for Estimating Ancestral Population Size and Divergence Time during Speciation with Gene Flow

Gene flow between species may cause variations in branch length and topology of gene tree, which are beyond the expected variations from ancestral processes. These additional variations make it difficult to estimate parameters during speciation with gene flow, as the pattern of these additional variations differs with the relationship between isolation and migration. As far as we know, most methods rely on the assumption about the relationship between isolation and migration by a given model, such as the isolation-with-migration model, when estimating parameters during speciation with gene flow. In this article, we develop a multispecies coalescent approach which does not rely on any assumption about the relationship between isolation and migration when estimating parameters and is called mstree. mstree is available at https://github.com/liujunfengtop/MStree/ and uses some mathematical inequalities among several factors, which include the species divergence time, the ancestral population size, and the number of gene trees, to estimate parameters during speciation with gene flow. Using simulations, we show that the estimated values of ancestral population sizes and species divergence times are close to the true values when analyzing the simulation data sets, which are generated based on the isolation-with-initial-migration model, secondary contact model, and isolation-with-migration model. Therefore, our method is able to estimate ancestral population sizes and speciation times in the presence of different modes of gene flow and may be helpful to test different theories of speciation.

Within-island diversification in a passerine bird

The presence of congeneric taxa on the same island suggests the possibility of in situ divergence, but can also result from multiple colonizations of previously diverged lineages. Here, using genome-wide data from a large population sample, we test the hypothesis that intra-island divergence explains the occurrence of four geographical forms meeting at hybrid zones in the Reunion grey white-eye (Zosterops borbonicus), a species complex endemic to the small volcanic island of Reunion. Using population genomic and phylogenetic analyses, we reconstructed the population history of the different forms. We confirmed the monophyly of the complex and found that one of the lowland forms is paraphyletic and basal relative to others, a pattern highly consistent with in situ divergence. Our results suggest initial colonization of the island through the lowlands, followed by expansion into the highlands, which led to the evolution of a distinct geographical form, genetically and ecologically different from the lowland ones. Lowland forms seem to have experienced periods of geographical isolation, but they diverged from one another by sexual selection rather than niche change. Overall, low dispersal capabilities in this island bird combined with both geographical and ecological opportunities seem to explain how divergence occurred at such a small spatial scale.

Recovering signals of ghost archaic introgression in African populations

While introgression from Neanderthals and Denisovans has been documented in modern humans outside Africa, the contribution of archaic hominins to the genetic variation of present-day Africans remains poorly understood. We provide complementary lines of evidence for archaic introgression into four West African populations. Our analyses of site frequency spectra indicate that these populations derive 2 to 19% of their genetic ancestry from an archaic population that diverged before the split of Neanderthals and modern humans. Using a method that can identify segments of archaic ancestry without the need for reference archaic genomes, we built genome-wide maps of archaic ancestry in the Yoruba and the Mende populations. Analyses of these maps reveal segments of archaic ancestry at high frequency in these populations that represent potential targets of adaptive introgression. Our results reveal the substantial contribution of archaic ancestry in shaping the gene pool of present-day West African populations.

Identifying model violations under the multispecies coalescent model using P2C2M.SNAPP

Phylogenetic estimation under the multispecies coalescent model (MSCM) assumes all incongruence among loci is caused by incomplete lineage sorting. Therefore, applying the MSCM to datasets that contain incongruence that is caused by other processes, such as gene flow, can lead to biased phylogeny estimates. To identify possible bias when using the MSCM, we present P2C2M.SNAPP. P2C2M.SNAPP is an R package that identifies model violations using posterior predictive simulation. P2C2M.SNAPP uses the posterior distribution of species trees output by the software package SNAPP to simulate posterior predictive datasets under the MSCM, and then uses summary statistics to compare either the empirical data or the posterior distribution to the posterior predictive distribution to identify model violations. In simulation testing, P2C2M.SNAPP correctly classified up to 83% of datasets (depending on the summary statistic used) as to whether or not they violated the MSCM model. P2C2M.SNAPP represents a user-friendly way for researchers to perform posterior predictive model checks when using the popular SNAPP phylogenetic estimation program. It is freely available as an R package, along with additional program details and tutorials.

Recent advances in Bayesian inference of isolation-with-migration models

Isolation-with-migration (IM) models have become popular for explaining population divergence in the presence of migrations. Bayesian methods are commonly used to estimate IM models, but they are limited to small data analysis or simple model inference. Recently three methods, IMa3, MIST, and AIM, resolved these limitations. Here, we describe the major problems addressed by these three software and compare differences among their inference methods, despite their use of the same standard likelihood function.

Ancient West African foragers in the context of African population history

Our knowledge of ancient human population structure in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly prior to the advent of food production, remains limited. Here we report genome-wide DNA data from four children-two of whom were buried approximately 8,000 years ago and two 3,000 years ago-from Shum Laka (Cameroon), one of the earliest known archaeological sites within the probable homeland of the Bantu language group1-11. One individual carried the deeply divergent Y chromosome haplogroup A00, which today is found almost exclusively in the same region12,13. However, the genome-wide ancestry profiles of all four individuals are most similar to those of present-day hunter-gatherers from western Central Africa, which implies that populations in western Cameroon today-as well as speakers of Bantu languages from across the continent-are not descended substantially from the population represented by these four people. We infer an Africa-wide phylogeny that features widespread admixture and three prominent radiations, including one that gave rise to at least four major lineages deep in the history of modern humans.

Geographic origin and timing of colonization of the Pacific Coast of North America by the rocky shore gastropod Littorina sitkana

The demographic history of a species can have a lasting impact on its contemporary population genetic structure. Northeastern Pacific (NEP) populations of the rocky shore gastropod Littorina sitkana have very little mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence diversity and show no significant population structure despite lacking dispersive planktonic larvae. A contrasting pattern of high mtDNA diversity in the northwestern Pacific (NWP) suggests that L. sitkana may have recently colonized the NEP from the NWP via stepping-stone colonization through the Aleutian-Commander Archipelago (ACA) following the end of the last glacial 20,000 years ago. Here, we use multi-locus sequence data to test that hypothesis using a combination of descriptive statistics and population divergence modeling aimed at resolving the timing and the geographic origin of NEP populations. Our results show that NEP populations share a common ancestor with a population of L. sitkana on the Kamchatka Peninsula ∼46,900 years ago and that NEP populations diverged from each other ∼21,400 years ago. A more recent population divergence between Kamchatka and NEP populations, than between Kamchatka and other populations in the NWP, suggests that the ACA was the most probable dispersal route. Taking into account the confidence intervals for the estimates, we conservatively estimate that L. sitkana arrived in the NEP between 107,400 and 4,100 years ago, a range of dates that is compatible with post-glacial colonization of the NEP. Unlike other congeners that are relatively abundant in the Pleistocene fossil record of the NEP, only one report of L. sitkana exists from the NEP fossil record. Although broadly consistent with the molecular data, the biogeographic significance of these fossils is difficult to evaluate, as the shells cannot be distinguished from the closely-related congener L. subrotundata.

Patterns, Mechanisms and Genetics of Speciation in Reptiles and Amphibians

In this contribution, the aspects of reptile and amphibian speciation that emerged from research performed over the past decade are reviewed. First, this study assesses how patterns and processes of speciation depend on knowing the taxonomy of the group in question, and discuss how integrative taxonomy has contributed to speciation research in these groups. This study then reviews the research on different aspects of speciation in reptiles and amphibians, including biogeography and climatic niches, ecological speciation, the relationship between speciation rates and phenotypic traits, and genetics and genomics. Further, several case studies of speciation in reptiles and amphibians that exemplify many of these themes are discussed. These include studies of integrative taxonomy and biogeography in South American lizards, ecological speciation in European salamanders, speciation and phenotypic evolution in frogs and lizards. The final case study combines genomics and biogeography in tortoises. The field of amphibian and reptile speciation research has steadily moved forward from the assessment of geographic and ecological aspects, to incorporating other dimensions of speciation, such as genetic mechanisms and evolutionary forces. A higher degree of integration among all these dimensions emerges as a goal for future research.

Comparison of Markov Chain Monte Carlo Software for the Evolutionary Analysis of Y-Chromosomal Microsatellite Data

The evolutionary analysis of genetic data is an important subject of modern bioscience, with practical applications in diverse fields. Parameters of interest in this context include effective population sizes, mutation rates, population growth rates and the times to most recent common ancestors. Studying Y-chromosomal microsatellite data, in particular, has proven useful to unravel the recent patrilineal history of Homo sapiens populations. We compared the individual analysis options and technical details of four software tools that are widely used for this purpose, namely BATWING, BEAST, IMa2 and LAMARC, all of which use Bayesian coalescent-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for parameter estimation. More specifically, we simulated datasets for either eight or 20 hypothetical Y-chromosomal microsatellites, assuming a mutation rate of 0.0030 per generation and a constant or exponentially increasing population size, and used these data to evaluate the parameter estimation capacity of each tool. The datasets comprised between 100 and 1000 samples. In addition to runtime, the practical utility of the tools of interest can also be expected to depend critically upon the convergence behavior of the actual MCMC implementation. In fact, we found that runtime increased, and convergence rate decreased, with increasing sample size as expected. BATWING performed best with respect to runtime and convergence behavior, but only supports simple evolutionary models. As regards the spectrum of evolutionary models covered, and also in terms of cross-platform usability, BEAST provided the greatest flexibility. Finally, IMa2 and LAMARC turned out best to incorporate elaborate migration models in the analysis process.

Models of archaic admixture and recent history from two-locus statistics

We learn about population history and underlying evolutionary biology through patterns of genetic polymorphism. Many approaches to reconstruct evolutionary histories focus on a limited number of informative statistics describing distributions of allele frequencies or patterns of linkage disequilibrium. We show that many commonly used statistics are part of a broad family of two-locus moments whose expectation can be computed jointly and rapidly under a wide range of scenarios, including complex multi-population demographies with continuous migration and admixture events. A full inspection of these statistics reveals that widely used models of human history fail to predict simple patterns of linkage disequilibrium. To jointly capture the information contained in classical and novel statistics, we implemented a tractable likelihood-based inference framework for demographic history. Using this approach, we show that human evolutionary models that include archaic admixture in Africa, Asia, and Europe provide a much better description of patterns of genetic diversity across the human genome. We estimate that an unidentified, deeply diverged population admixed with modern humans within Africa both before and after the split of African and Eurasian populations, contributing 4 - 8% genetic ancestry to individuals in world-wide populations.