The representativeness of sentinel practice networks

What is the relevancy of a surveillance of mumps without a systematic laboratory confirmation in highly immunized populations? Epidemiology of suspected and biologically confirmed mumps cases seen in general practice in France between 2014 and 2020

BACKGROUND

In France, mumps surveillance is conducted in primary care by the Sentinelles network, the National Reference Centre for Measles, Mumps and Rubella and Santé publique France.

AIM

The objective of this study was to estimate the incidence of suspected mumps in general practice, the proportion of laboratory confirmed cases and the factors associated with a virological confirmation.

METHODS

General practitioners (GPs) participating in the Sentinelles network should report all patients with suspected mumps according to a clinical definition in case of parotitis and a serological definition in case of clinical expression without parotitis. All suspected mumps cases reported between January 2014 and December 2020 were included. A sample of these cases were tested by real time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for mumps biological confirmation.

RESULTS

A total of 252 individuals with suspected mumps were included in the study. The average annual incidence rate of suspected mumps in general practice in France between 2014 and 2020 was estimated at 11 cases per 100,000 population [CI95%: 6-17]. A mumps confirmation RT-PCR test was performed on 146 cases amongst which 17 (11.5 %) were positive. Age (between 20 and 29 years old), the presence of a clinical complication and an exposure to a suspected mumps case within the 21 days prior the current episode were associated with a mumps biological confirmation.

CONCLUSION

If these results confirm the circulation of mumps virus in France, they highlight the limits of a surveillance without a systematic laboratory confirmation in highly immunized populations.

Risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 among patients in the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre primary care network: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

There are few primary care studies of the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to identify demographic and clinical risk factors for testing positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) within the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre primary care network.

METHODS

We analysed routinely collected, pseudonymised data for patients in the RCGP Research and Surveillance Centre primary care sentinel network who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 between Jan 28 and April 4, 2020. We used multivariable logistic regression models with multiple imputation to identify risk factors for positive SARS-CoV-2 tests within this surveillance network.

FINDINGS

We identified 3802 SARS-CoV-2 test results, of which 587 were positive. In multivariable analysis, male sex was independently associated with testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 (296 [18·4%] of 1612 men vs 291 [13·3%] of 2190 women; adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1·55, 95% CI 1·27-1·89). Adults were at increased risk of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 compared with children, and people aged 40-64 years were at greatest risk in the multivariable model (243 [18·5%] of 1316 adults aged 40-64 years vs 23 [4·6%] of 499 children; adjusted OR 5·36, 95% CI 3·28-8·76). Compared with white people, the adjusted odds of a positive test were greater in black people (388 [15·5%] of 2497 white people vs 36 [62·1%] of 58 black people; adjusted OR 4·75, 95% CI 2·65-8·51). People living in urban areas versus rural areas (476 [26·2%] of 1816 in urban areas vs 111 [5·6%] of 1986 in rural areas; adjusted OR 4·59, 95% CI 3·57-5·90) and in more deprived areas (197 [29·5%] of 668 in most deprived vs 143 [7·7%] of 1855 in least deprived; adjusted OR 2·03, 95% CI 1·51-2·71) were more likely to test positive. People with chronic kidney disease were more likely to test positive in the adjusted analysis (68 [32·9%] of 207 with chronic kidney disease vs 519 [14·4%] of 3595 without; adjusted OR 1·91, 95% CI 1·31-2·78), but there was no significant association with other chronic conditions in that analysis. We found increased odds of a positive test among people who are obese (142 [20·9%] of 680 people with obesity vs 171 [13·2%] of 1296 normal-weight people; adjusted OR 1·41, 95% CI 1·04-1·91). Notably, active smoking was linked with decreased odds of a positive test result (47 [11·4%] of 413 active smokers vs 201 [17·9%] of 1125 non-smokers; adjusted OR 0·49, 95% CI 0·34-0·71).

INTERPRETATION

A positive SARS-CoV-2 test result in this primary care cohort was associated with similar risk factors as observed for severe outcomes of COVID-19 in hospital settings, except for smoking. We provide evidence of potential sociodemographic factors associated with a positive test, including deprivation, population density, ethnicity, and chronic kidney disease.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

Incidence and prevalence of cardiovascular disease in English primary care: a cross-sectional and follow-up study of the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC)

OBJECTIVES

To describe incidence and prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), its risk factors, medication prescribed to treat CVD and predictors of CVD within a nationally representative dataset.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study of adults with and without CVD.

SETTING

The Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) is an English primary care sentinel network. RCGP RSC is over 50 years old and one of the oldest in Europe. Practices receive feedback about data quality. This database is primarily used to conduct surveillance and research into influenza, infections and vaccine effectiveness but is also a rich resource for the study of non-communicable disease (NCD). The RCGP RSC network comprised 164 practices at the time of study.

RESULTS

Data were extracted from the records of 1 275 174 adults. Approximately a fifth (21.3%; 95% CI 21.2% to 21.4%) had CVD (myocardial infarction (MI), angina, atrial fibrillation (AF), peripheral arterial disease, stroke/transient ischaemic attack (TIA), congestive cardiac failure) or hypertension. Smoking, unsafe alcohol consumption and obesity were more common among people with CVD. Angiotensin system modulating drugs, 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme (HMG-CoA) reductase inhibitors (statins) and calcium channel blockers were the most commonly prescribed CVD medications. Age-adjusted and gender-adjusted annual incidence for AF was 28.2/10 000 (95% CI 27.8 to 28.7); stroke/TIA 17.1/10 000 (95% CI 16.8 to 17.5) and MI 9.8/10 000 (95% CI 9.5 to 10.0). Logistic regression analyses confirmed established CVD risk factors were associated with CVD in the RCGP RSC network dataset.

CONCLUSIONS

The RCGP RSC database provides comprehensive information on risk factors, medical diagnosis, physiological measurements and prescription history that could be used in CVD research or pharmacoepidemiology. With the exception of MI, the prevalence of CVDs was higher than in other national data, possibly reflecting data quality. RCGP RSC is an underused resource for research into NCDs and their management and welcomes collaborative opportunities.

Does Real World Use of Liraglutide Match its Use in the LEADER Cardiovascular Outcome Trial? Study Protocol

BACKGROUND

Liraglutide is an injectable therapy to treat type 2 diabetes (T2DM), belonging to the glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist class of drugs. The Liraglutide Effect and Action in Diabetes: Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcome Results (LEADER) trial established that liraglutide demonstrated glucose-lowering benefits and improved cardiovascular outcomes in those individuals with T2DM at high cardiovascular risk.

AIMS

The aim of this study is to report the prevalence and characteristics of people treated with liraglutide compared with the LEADER trial. In addition, the remaining portion of the T2DM population will be examined to determine the prevalence of those who meet the inclusion criteria for the LEADER trial but who are not treated with this medication.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

This is a cross-sectional analysis of routinely collected primary care data on all people with T2DM included in the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Center (RSC) network database. People with T2DM will be identified from the dataset using a well-established ontological process. Read and other clinical codes will be used to identify people prescribed liraglutide and those at high cardiovascular risk. We will use descriptive statistics to report the characteristics of people with T2DM prescribed liraglutide compared with those of the LEADER trial and the proportion of the wider T2DM cohort that matches the LEADER inclusion criteria. In terms of ethical considerations, this study used pseudonymized data, and was classed as an "Audit of current practice".

PLANNED OUTPUTS

The results of the study will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal to report the applicability of the results of the LEADER trial to real-world clinical practice.

FUNDING

Novo Nordisk Limited.

Is the onset of influenza in the community age-related?

We studied the spread of influenza in the community between 1993 and 2009 using primary-care surveillance data to investigate if the onset of influenza was age-related. Virus detections [A(H3N2), B, A(H1N1)] and clinical incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI) in 12·3 million person-years in the long-running Royal College of General Practitioners-linked clinical-virological surveillance programme in England & Wales were examined. The number of days between symptom onset and the all-age peak ILI incidence were compared by age group for each influenza type/subtype. We found that virus detection and ILI incidence increase, peak and decrease were in unison. The mean interval between symptom onset to peak ILI incidence in virus detections (all ages) was: A(H3N2) 20·5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 19·7-21·6] days; B, 18·8 (95% CI 15·8·0-21·7) days; and A(H1N1) 17·0 (95% CI 15·6-18·4) days. Differences by age group were examined using the Kruskal-Wallis test. For A(H3N2) and A(H1N1) viruses the interval was similar in each age group. For influenza B there were highly significant differences by age group (P = 0·0001). Clinical incidence rates of ILI reported in the 8 weeks preceding the period of influenza virus activity were used to estimate a baseline incidence and threshold value (upper 95% CI of estimate) which was used as a marker of epidemic progress. Differences between the age groups in the week in which the threshold was reached were small and not localized to any age group. In conclusion we found no evidence to suggest that influenza A(H3N2) and A(H1N1) occurs in the community in one age group before another. For influenza B, virus detection was earlier in children aged 5-14 years than in persons aged ⩾25 years.

Sodium-Glucose Co-Transporter-2 (SGLT2) Inhibitors: Comparing Trial and Real World Use (Study Protocol)

BACKGROUND

Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors (gliflozins) are the newest class of medication available to treat type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Recent findings from the first complete cardiovascular safety trial in SGLT2 inhibitors, the Empagliflozin, Cardiovascular Outcomes, and Mortality in type 2 diabetes (EMPA-REG OUTCOMES) trial, demonstrated reduced cardiovascular outcomes in people with high cardiovascular risk. How to apply these findings to clinical practice remains unclear, with questions remaining on who will reap this cardiovascular benefit.

AIM

To describe the proportion of people in the real world currently treated with SGLT2 inhibitors who meet the inclusion criteria of the EMPA-REG trial and therefore could expect the cardiovascular benefit identified by the trial. Similarly, to describe the proportion of people from the whole T2DM population who could also expect this same benefit.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Routinely collected data from UK primary care in the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) database will be used. The study population will include all people with T2DM within this database (approximately 60,000). We will perform a cross-sectional investigation to describe the characteristics of people currently using SGTL2 inhibitors compared with the population of the EMPA-REG trail. We will similarly compare the characteristics of the RCGP RSC T2DM cohort with the inclusion criteria of the EMPA-REG trial.

METHOD

People with T2DM using a pre-existing verified clinical ontological process will be identified, as will people with prescriptions for SGLT2 inhibitors and other medications using Read coded and other proprietary coding systems. Descriptive statistics will be used to characterise the key clinical characteristics of people with T2DM using SGLT2 inhibitors and to compare these characteristics to people included in EMPA-REG trial; the proportion of people who match the trial criteria will be reported.

PLANNED OUTPUTS

Peer review publication reporting the real world lessons for clinical practice.

FUNDING

AstraZeneca.

Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre (RCGP RSC) sentinel network: a cohort profile

PURPOSE

The Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre (RCGP RSC) is one of the longest established primary care sentinel networks. In 2015, it established a new data and analysis hub at the University of Surrey. This paper evaluates the representativeness of the RCGP RSC network against the English population.

PARTICIPANTS AND METHOD

The cohort includes 1 042 063 patients registered in 107 participating general practitioner (GP) practices. We compared the RCGP RSC data with English national data in the following areas: demographics; geographical distribution; chronic disease prevalence, management and completeness of data recording; and prescribing and vaccine uptake. We also assessed practices within the network participating in a national swabbing programme.

FINDINGS TO DATE

We found a small over-representation of people in the 25-44 age band, under-representation of white ethnicity, and of less deprived people. Geographical focus is in London, with less practices in the southwest and east of England. We found differences in the prevalence of diabetes (national: 6.4%, RCPG RSC: 5.8%), learning disabilities (national: 0.44%, RCPG RSC: 0.40%), obesity (national: 9.2%, RCPG RSC: 8.0%), pulmonary disease (national: 1.8%, RCPG RSC: 1.6%), and cardiovascular diseases (national: 1.1%, RCPG RSC: 1.2%). Data completeness in risk factors for diabetic population is high (77-99%). We found differences in prescribing rates and costs for infections (national: 5.58%, RCPG RSC: 7.12%), and for nutrition and blood conditions (national: 6.26%, RCPG RSC: 4.50%). Differences in vaccine uptake were seen in patients aged 2 years (national: 38.5%, RCPG RSC: 32.8%). Owing to large numbers, most differences were significant (p<0.00015).

FUTURE PLANS

The RCGP RSC is a representative network, having only small differences with the national population, which have now been quantified and can be assessed for clinical relevance for specific studies. This network is a rich source for research into routine practice.

Incidence of medically attended influenza during pandemic and post-pandemic seasons through the Influenza Incidence Surveillance Project, 2009-13

BACKGROUND

Since the introduction of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) to the USA in 2009, the Influenza Incidence Surveillance Project has monitored the burden of influenza in the outpatient setting through population-based surveillance.

METHODS

From Oct 1, 2009, to July 31, 2013, outpatient clinics representing 13 health jurisdictions in the USA reported counts of influenza-like illness (fever including cough or sore throat) and all patient visits by age. During four years, staff at 104 unique clinics (range 35-64 per year) with a combined median population of 368,559 (IQR 352,595-428,286) attended 35,663 patients with influenza-like illness and collected 13,925 respiratory specimens. Clinical data and a respiratory specimen for influenza testing by RT-PCR were collected from the first ten patients presenting with influenza-like illness each week. We calculated the incidence of visits for influenza-like illness using the size of the patient population, and the incidence attributable to influenza was extrapolated from the proportion of patients with positive tests each week.

FINDINGS

The site-median peak percentage of specimens positive for influenza ranged from 58.3% to 77.8%. Children aged 2 to 17 years had the highest incidence of influenza-associated visits (range 4.2-28.0 per 1000 people by year), and adults older than 65 years had the lowest (range 0.5-3.5 per 1000 population). Influenza A H3N2, pandemic H1N1, and influenza B equally co-circulated in the first post-pandemic season, whereas H3N2 predominated for the next two seasons. Of patients for whom data was available, influenza vaccination was reported in 3289 (28.7%) of 11,459 patients with influenza-like illness, and antivirals were prescribed to 1644 (13.8%) of 11,953 patients.

INTERPRETATION

Influenza incidence varied with age groups and by season after the pandemic of 2009 influenza A H1N1. High levels of influenza virus circulation, especially in young children, emphasise the need for additional efforts to increase the uptake of influenza vaccines and antivirals.

FUNDING

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Defining dimensions of research readiness: a conceptual model for primary care research networks

BACKGROUND

Recruitment to research studies in primary care is challenging despite widespread implementation of electronic patient record (EPR) systems which potentially make it easier to identify eligible cases.

METHODS

Literature review and applying the learning from a European research readiness assessment tool, the TRANSFoRm International Research Readiness instrument (TIRRE), to the context of the English NHS in order to develop a model to assess a practice's research readiness.

RESULTS

Seven dimensions of research readiness were identified: (1) Data readiness: Is there good data quality in EPR systems; (2) Record readiness: Are EPR data able to identify eligible cases and other study data; (3) Organisational readiness: Are the health system and socio-cultural environment supportive; (4) Governance readiness: Does the study meet legal and local health system regulatory compliance; (5) Study-specific readiness; (6) Business process readiness: Are business processes tilted in favour of participation: including capacity and capability to take on extra work, financial incentives as well as intangibles such as social and intellectual capital; (7) Patient readiness: Are systems in place to recruit patients and obtain informed consent?

CONCLUSIONS

The model might enable the development of interventions to increase participation in primary care-based research and become a tool to measure the progress of practice networks towards the most advanced state of readiness.

Big Data Usage Patterns in the Health Care Domain: A Use Case Driven Approach Applied to the Assessment of Vaccination Benefits and Risks. Contribution of the IMIA Primary Healthcare Working Group

BACKGROUND

Generally benefits and risks of vaccines can be determined from studies carried out as part of regulatory compliance, followed by surveillance of routine data; however there are some rarer and more long term events that require new methods. Big data generated by increasingly affordable personalised computing, and from pervasive computing devices is rapidly growing and low cost, high volume, cloud computing makes the processing of these data inexpensive.

OBJECTIVE

To describe how big data and related analytical methods might be applied to assess the benefits and risks of vaccines.

METHOD

We reviewed the literature on the use of big data to improve health, applied to generic vaccine use cases, that illustrate benefits and risks of vaccination. We defined a use case as the interaction between a user and an information system to achieve a goal. We used flu vaccination and pre-school childhood immunisation as exemplars.

RESULTS

We reviewed three big data use cases relevant to assessing vaccine benefits and risks: (i) Big data processing using crowdsourcing, distributed big data processing, and predictive analytics, (ii) Data integration from heterogeneous big data sources, e.g. the increasing range of devices in the "internet of things", and (iii) Real-time monitoring for the direct monitoring of epidemics as well as vaccine effects via social media and other data sources.

CONCLUSIONS

Big data raises new ethical dilemmas, though its analysis methods can bring complementary real-time capabilities for monitoring epidemics and assessing vaccine benefit-risk balance.

Improving disease incidence estimates in primary care surveillance systems

Background

In primary care surveillance systems based on voluntary participation, biased results may arise from the lack of representativeness of the monitored population and uncertainty regarding the population denominator, especially in health systems where patient registration is not required.

Methods

Based on the observation of a positive association between number of cases reported and number of consultations by the participating general practitioners (GPs), we define several weighted incidence estimators using external information on consultation volume in GPs. These estimators are applied to data reported in a French primary care surveillance system based on voluntary GPs (the Sentinelles network) for comparison.

Results

Depending on hypotheses for weight computations, relative changes in weekly national-level incidence estimates up to 3% for influenza, 6% for diarrhea, and 11% for varicella were observed. The use of consultation-weighted estimates led to bias reduction in the estimates. At the regional level (NUTS2 level - Nomenclature of Statistical Territorial Units Level 2), relative changes were even larger between incidence estimates, with changes between -40% and +55%. Using bias-reduced weights decreased variation in incidence between regions and increased spatial autocorrelation.

Conclusions

Post-stratification using external administrative data may improve incidence estimates in surveillance systems based on voluntary participation.

Pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza vaccination, preceding infections and clinical findings in UK children with Guillain-Barré syndrome

OBJECTIVE

To record clinical findings in all new cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) or Fisher syndrome (FS) in UK children in the 2 years following September 2009 and determine the proportion temporally associated with recent infections, pandemic H1N1 (2009) strain influenza vaccination or seasonal influenza vaccination.

DESIGN

A prospective UK-wide epidemiological study using the British Paediatric Surveillance Unit system.

PATIENTS

Children aged 16 years or less meeting the Brighton Collaboration criteria for GBS or FS.

RESULTS

112 children with GBS (66 boys and 46 girls) and 3 boys with FS were identified in 2 years. All but one recovered sufficiently to go home. The annual UK incidence rate of GBS in patients less than 15 years old was 0.45/100 000, similar to other countries. There was evidence of infection in the 3 months preceding onset in 92/112 GBS and 3/3 FS cases. Of those living in England, 7 cases received pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza vaccination before GBS symptom onset (3/7 were within 6 months including 1 within 3 months); 2 children received 2010/2011 seasonal influenza vaccination within 6 months of GBS onset. The numbers vaccinated were not significantly greater than expected by chance.

CONCLUSIONS

The outcome for childhood GBS and FS after 6 months was better than reported in adults. Most UK GBS and FS cases had infections in the preceding 3 months. When considering the children living in England, there was no significantly increased risk of GBS after pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza vaccination or 2010/2011 seasonal influenza vaccination.

Access to the NHS by telephone and Internet during an influenza pandemic: an observational study

OBJECTIVES

To examine use of a novel telephone and Internet service-the National Pandemic Flu Service (NPFS)-by the population of England during the 2009-2010 influenza pandemic.

SETTING

National telephone and Internet-based service.

PARTICIPANTS

Service available to population of England (n=51.8 million).

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary: service use rate, by week. Numbers and age-specific and sex-specific rates of population who: accessed service; were authorised to collect antiviral medication; collected antiviral medication; were advised to seek further face-to-face assessment. Secondary: daily mean contacts by hour; proportion using service by telephone/Internet.

RESULTS

The NPFS was activated on 23 July 2009, operated for 204 days and assessed 2.7 million patients (5200 consultations/100 000 population). This was six times the number of people who consulted their general practitioner with influenza-like illness during the same period (823 consultations/100 000 population, rate ratio (RR)=6.30, 95% CI 6.28 to 6.32). Women used the service more than men (52.6 vs 43.4 assessments/1000 population, RR1 21, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.22). Among adults, use of the service declined with age (16-29 years: 74.4 vs 65 years+: 9.9 assessments/1000 population (RR 7.46 95% CI 7.41 to 7.52). Almost three-quarters of those assessed met the criteria to receive antiviral medication (1 807 866/2 488 510; 72.6%). Most of the people subsequently collected this medication, although more than one-third did not (n=646 709; 35.8%). Just over one-third of those assessed were advised to seek further face-to-face assessment with a practitioner (951 332/2 488 504; 38.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

This innovative healthcare service operated at large scale and achieved its aim of relieving considerable pressure from mainstream health services, while providing appropriate initial assessment and management for patients. This offers proof-of-concept for such a service that, with further refinement, England can use in future pandemics. Other countries may wish to adopt a similar system as part of their pandemic emergency planning.

A new laboratory-based surveillance system (Respiratory DataMart System) for influenza and other respiratory viruses in England: results and experience from 2009 to 2012

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The burden of influenza in England by age and clinical risk group: a statistical analysis to inform vaccine policy

OBJECTIVES

To assess the burden of influenza by age and clinical status and use this to inform evaluations of the age and risk-based influenza vaccination policy in the United Kingdom.

METHODS

Weekly laboratory reports for influenza and 7 other respiratory pathogens were extracted from the national database and used in a regression model to estimate the proportion of acute respiratory illness outcomes attributable to each pathogen.

RESULTS

Influenza accounted for ∼10% of the attributed respiratory admissions and deaths in hospital. Healthy children under five had the highest influenza admission rate (1.9/1000). The presence of co-morbidities increased the admission rate by 5.7 fold for 5-14 year olds (from 0.1 to 0.56/1000), the relative risk declining to 1.8 fold in 65+ year olds (from 0.46 to 0.84/1000). The majority (72%) of influenza-attributable deaths in hospital occurred in 65+ year olds with co-morbidities. Mortality in children under 15 years was low with around 12 influenza-attributable deaths in hospital per year in England; the case fatality rate was substantially higher in risk than non-risk children. Infants under 6 months had the highest consultation and admission rates, around 70/1000 and 3/1000 respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Additional strategies are needed to reduce the remaining morbidity and mortality in the high-risk and elderly populations, and to protect healthy children currently not offered the benefits of vaccination.

Assessing optimal target populations for influenza vaccination programmes: an evidence synthesis and modelling study

BACKGROUND

Influenza vaccine policies that maximise health benefit through efficient use of limited resources are needed. Generally, influenza vaccination programmes have targeted individuals 65 y and over and those at risk, according to World Health Organization recommendations. We developed methods to synthesise the multiplicity of surveillance datasets in order to evaluate how changing target populations in the seasonal vaccination programme would affect infection rate and mortality.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Using a contemporary evidence-synthesis approach, we use virological, clinical, epidemiological, and behavioural data to develop an age- and risk-stratified transmission model that reproduces the strain-specific behaviour of influenza over 14 seasons in England and Wales, having accounted for the vaccination uptake over this period. We estimate the reduction in infections and deaths achieved by the historical programme compared with no vaccination, and the reduction had different policies been in place over the period. We find that the current programme has averted 0.39 (95% credible interval 0.34-0.45) infections per dose of vaccine and 1.74 (1.16-3.02) deaths per 1,000 doses. Targeting transmitters by extending the current programme to 5-16-y-old children would increase the efficiency of the total programme, resulting in an overall reduction of 0.70 (0.52-0.81) infections per dose and 1.95 (1.28-3.39) deaths per 1,000 doses. In comparison, choosing the next group most at risk (50-64-y-olds) would prevent only 0.43 (0.35-0.52) infections per dose and 1.77 (1.15-3.14) deaths per 1,000 doses.

CONCLUSIONS

This study proposes a framework to integrate influenza surveillance data into transmission models. Application to data from England and Wales confirms the role of children as key infection spreaders. The most efficient use of vaccine to reduce overall influenza morbidity and mortality is thus to target children in addition to older adults. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Validation of a Pediatric Primary Care Network in a US Metropolitan Region as a Community-Based Infectious Disease Surveillance System

This cross-sectional study used Geographic Information System methods to compare sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of children enrolled and not enrolled in a primary care network to determine the suitability of the network to estimate population-based disease rates. We validated the network surveillance system by comparing invasive pneumococcal disease rates between network and nonnetwork children using population-based surveillance data. Among the study population of 130300 children, network children were more likely to be female, Black, non-Hispanic, younger, and receive Medicaid. These differences varied across neighborhoods, however, adjusting for neighborhood characteristics did not significantly change observed differences. Rates of invasive pneumococcal disease were not significantly different between network and non-network children. Significant demographic and clinical differences existed between network and non-network children and varied over small areas. Observed population rates of an infectious disease did not significantly differ suggesting that the network can potentially provide valid disease estimates for the community population.

Absenteeism in schools during the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic: a useful tool for early detection of influenza activity in the community?

Certain influenza outbreaks, including the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, can predominantly affect school-age children. Therefore the use of school absenteeism data has been considered as a potential tool for providing early warning of increasing influenza activity in the community. This study retrospectively evaluates the usefulness of these data by comparing them with existing syndromic surveillance systems and laboratory data. Weekly mean percentages of absenteeism in 373 state schools (children aged 4-18 years) in Birmingham, UK, from September 2006 to September 2009, were compared with established syndromic surveillance systems including a telephone health helpline, a general practitioner sentinel network and laboratory data for influenza. Correlation coefficients were used to examine the relationship between each syndromic system. In June 2009, school absenteeism generally peaked concomitantly with the existing influenza surveillance systems in England. Weekly school absenteeism surveillance would not have detected pandemic influenza A(H1N1) earlier but daily absenteeism data and the development of baselines could improve the timeliness of the system.

Skin conditions are the commonest new reason people present to general practitioners in England and Wales

BACKGROUND

Knowledge of the prevalence and incidence of skin conditions is a prerequisite for designing clinical services and providing appropriate training for primary health care professionals. In the U.K. the general practitioner and practice nurse are the first point of medical contact for persons with skin conditions.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to obtain contemporary data in age-, gender- and diagnosis-specific detail on persons presenting to primary care with skin problems. Comparisons were made with similar data for other major disease groups and with similar data from other recent years.

METHODS

We used surveillance data collected in the Weekly Returns Service (WRS) of the Royal College of General Practitioners during 2006 and trend data for subsequent years. The WRS sentinel practices monitor all consultations by clinical diagnosis in a representative population of 950,000 in England and Wales.

RESULTS

For conditions included in chapter XII of the International Classification of Diseases Ninth Revision (ICD9), 15% of the population consulted; a further 9% presented with skin problems classified elsewhere in the ICD9, making a total of 24%. There was no evidence of increasing or decreasing trend since 2006. Skin infections were the commonest diagnostic group, while 20% of children < 12 months were diagnosed with atopic eczema. Considered collectively, the incidence of new episodes of skin disorders (including diagnoses outside chapter XII) exceeded incidences for all other major disease groupings.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with other major disease groups, skin conditions are the most frequent reason for consultation in general practice. This result emphasizes the need for appropriate education and training for all medical students and particularly for continuing education in dermatology for all primary health care professionals.

The evidence base for interventions delivered to children in primary care: an overview of cochrane systematic reviews

BACKGROUND

As a first step in developing a framework to evaluate and improve the quality of care of children in primary care there is a need to identify the evidence base underpinning interventions relevant to child health. Our objective was to identify all Cochrane systematic reviews relevant to the management of childhood conditions in primary care and to assess the extent to which Cochrane reviews reflect the burden of childhood illness presenting in primary care.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We used the Cochrane Child Health Field register of child-relevant systematic reviews to complete an overview of Cochrane reviews related to the management of children in primary care. We compared the proportion of systematic reviews with the proportion of consultations in Australia, US, Dutch and UK general practice in children. We identified 396 relevant systematic reviews; 358 included primary studies on children while 251 undertook a meta-analysis. Most reviews (n = 218, 55%) focused on chronic conditions and over half (n = 216, 57%) evaluated drug interventions. Since 2000, the percentage of pediatric primary care relevant reviews only increased by 2% (7% to 9%) compared to 18% (10% to 28%) in all child relevant reviews. Almost a quarter of reviews (n = 78, 23%) were published on asthma treatments which only account for 3-5% of consultations. Conversely, 15-23% of consultations are due to skin conditions yet they represent only 7% (n = 23) of reviews.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Although Cochrane systematic reviews focus on clinical trials and do not provide a comprehensive picture of the evidence base underpinning the management of children in primary care, the mismatch between the focus of the published research and the focus of clinical activity is striking. Clinical trials are an important component of the evidence base and the lack of trial evidence to demonstrate intervention effectiveness in substantial areas of primary care for children should be addressed.

Assessing the burden of paediatric influenza in Europe: the European Paediatric Influenza Analysis (EPIA) project

The European Paediatric Influenza Analysis (EPIA) project is a multi-country project that was created to collect, analyse and present data regarding the paediatric influenza burden in European countries, with the purpose of providing the necessary information to make evidence-based decisions regarding influenza immunisation recommendations for children. The initial approach taken is based on existing weekly virological and age-specific influenza-like illness (ILI) data from surveillance networks across Europe. We use a multiple regression model guided by longitudinal weekly patterns of influenza virus to attribute the weekly ILI consultation incidence pattern to each influenza (sub)type, while controlling for the effect of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemics. Modelling the ILI consultation incidence during 2002/2003-2008 revealed that influenza infections that presented for medical attention as ILI affected between 0.3% and 9.8% of children aged 0-4 and 5-14 years in England, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain in an average season. With the exception of Spain, these rates were always higher in children aged 0-4 years. Across the six seasons analysed (five seasons were analysed from the Italian data), the model attributed 47-83% of the ILI burden in primary care to influenza virus infection in the various countries, with the A(H3N2) virus playing the most important role, followed by influenza viruses B and A(H1N1). National season averages from the four countries studied indicated that between 0.4% and 18% of children consulted a physician for ILI, with the percentage depending on the country and health care system. Influenza virus infections explained the majority of paediatric ILI consultations in all countries. The next step will be to apply the EPIA modelling approach to severe outcomes indicators (i.e. hospitalisations and mortality data) to generate a complete range of mild and severe influenza burden estimates needed for decision making concerning paediatric influenza vaccination.