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Leifels M, Khalilur Rahman O, Sam IC, Cheng D, Chua FJD, Nainani D, Kim SY, Ng WJ, Kwok WC, Sirikanchana K, Wuertz S, Thompson J, Chan YF. The one health perspective to improve environmental surveillance of zoonotic viruses: lessons from COVID-19 and outlook beyond. ISME COMMUNICATIONS 2022; 2:107. [PMID: 36338866 PMCID: PMC9618154 DOI: 10.1038/s43705-022-00191-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2022] [Revised: 09/26/2022] [Accepted: 10/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Abstract
The human population has doubled in the last 50 years from about 3.7 billion to approximately 7.8 billion. With this rapid expansion, more people live in close contact with wildlife, livestock, and pets, which in turn creates increasing opportunities for zoonotic diseases to pass between animals and people. At present an estimated 75% of all emerging virus-associated infectious diseases possess a zoonotic origin, and outbreaks of Zika, Ebola and COVID-19 in the past decade showed their huge disruptive potential on the global economy. Here, we describe how One Health inspired environmental surveillance campaigns have emerged as the preferred tools to monitor human-adjacent environments for known and yet to be discovered infectious diseases, and how they can complement classical clinical diagnostics. We highlight the importance of environmental factors concerning interactions between animals, pathogens and/or humans that drive the emergence of zoonoses, and the methodologies currently proposed to monitor them-the surveillance of wastewater, for example, was identified as one of the main tools to assess the spread of SARS-CoV-2 by public health professionals and policy makers during the COVID-19 pandemic. One-Health driven approaches that facilitate surveillance, thus harbour the potential of preparing humanity for future pandemics caused by aetiological agents with environmental reservoirs. Via the example of COVID-19 and other viral diseases, we propose that wastewater surveillance is a useful complement to clinical diagnosis as it is centralized, robust, cost-effective, and relatively easy to implement.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mats Leifels
- Singapore Centre for Environmental Life Sciences Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Omar Khalilur Rahman
- Department of Medical Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - I-Ching Sam
- Department of Medical Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
- Department of Medical Microbiology, University Malaya Medical Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Dan Cheng
- Singapore Centre for Environmental Life Sciences Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Feng Jun Desmond Chua
- Singapore Centre for Environmental Life Sciences Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Dhiraj Nainani
- Singapore Centre for Environmental Life Sciences Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Se Yeon Kim
- Singapore Centre for Environmental Life Sciences Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Wei Jie Ng
- Singapore Centre for Environmental Life Sciences Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Wee Chiew Kwok
- Singapore Centre for Environmental Life Sciences Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Kwanrawee Sirikanchana
- Research Laboratory of Biotechnology, Chulabhorn Research Institute, Bangkok, Thailand
- Centre of Excellence on Environmental Health and Toxicology, CHE, Ministry of Education, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Stefan Wuertz
- Singapore Centre for Environmental Life Sciences Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
- School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Janelle Thompson
- Singapore Centre for Environmental Life Sciences Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
- Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise (CREATE), Singapore, Singapore
- Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Yoke Fun Chan
- Department of Medical Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
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Ma Z(S, Zhang YP. Ecology of Human Medical Enterprises: From Disease Ecology of Zoonoses, Cancer Ecology Through to Medical Ecology of Human Microbiomes. Front Ecol Evol 2022. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2022.879130] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
In nature, the interaction between pathogens and their hosts is only one of a handful of interaction relationships between species, including parasitism, predation, competition, symbiosis, commensalism, and among others. From a non-anthropocentric view, parasitism has relatively fewer essential differences from the other relationships; but from an anthropocentric view, parasitism and predation against humans and their well-beings and belongings are frequently related to heinous diseases. Specifically, treating (managing) diseases of humans, crops and forests, pets, livestock, and wildlife constitute the so-termed medical enterprises (sciences and technologies) humans endeavor in biomedicine and clinical medicine, veterinary, plant protection, and wildlife conservation. In recent years, the significance of ecological science to medicines has received rising attentions, and the emergence and pandemic of COVID-19 appear accelerating the trend. The facts that diseases are simply one of the fundamental ecological relationships in nature, and the study of the relationships between species and their environment is a core mission of ecology highlight the critical importance of ecological science. Nevertheless, current studies on the ecology of medical enterprises are highly fragmented. Here, we (i) conceptually overview the fields of disease ecology of wildlife, cancer ecology and evolution, medical ecology of human microbiome-associated diseases and infectious diseases, and integrated pest management of crops and forests, across major medical enterprises. (ii) Explore the necessity and feasibility for a unified medical ecology that spans biomedicine, clinical medicine, veterinary, crop (forest and wildlife) protection, and biodiversity conservation. (iii) Suggest that a unified medical ecology of human diseases is both necessary and feasible, but laissez-faire terminologies in other human medical enterprises may be preferred. (iv) Suggest that the evo-eco paradigm for cancer research can play a similar role of evo-devo in evolutionary developmental biology. (v) Summarized 40 key ecological principles/theories in current disease-, cancer-, and medical-ecology literatures. (vi) Identified key cross-disciplinary discovery fields for medical/disease ecology in coming decade including bioinformatics and computational ecology, single cell ecology, theoretical ecology, complexity science, and the integrated studies of ecology and evolution. Finally, deep understanding of medical ecology is of obvious importance for the safety of human beings and perhaps for all living things on the planet.
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Chaiyes A, Duengkae P, Suksavate W, Pongpattananurak N, Wacharapluesadee S, Olival KJ, Srikulnath K, Pattanakiat S, Hemachudha T. Mapping Risk of Nipah Virus Transmission from Bats to Humans in Thailand. ECOHEALTH 2022; 19:175-189. [PMID: 35657574 PMCID: PMC10116436 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-022-01588-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2021] [Accepted: 05/06/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Nipah virus (NiV) is a zoonotic virus that can pose a serious threat to human and livestock health. Old-world fruit bats (Pteropus spp.) are the natural reservoir hosts for NiV, and Pteropus lylei, Lyle's flying fox, is an important host of NiV in mainland Southeast Asia. NiV can be transmitted from bats to humans directly via bat-contaminated foods (i.e., date palm sap or fruit) or indirectly via livestock or other intermediate animal hosts. Here we construct risk maps for NiV spillover and transmission by combining ecological niche models for the P. lylei bat reservoir with other spatial data related to direct or indirect NiV transmission (livestock density, foodborne sources including fruit production, and human population). We predict the current and future (2050 and 2070) distribution of P. lylei across Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. Our best-fit model predicted that central and western regions of Thailand and small areas in Cambodia are currently the most suitable habitats for P. lylei. However, due to climate change, the species range is predicted to expand to include lower northern, northeastern, eastern, and upper southern Thailand and almost all of Cambodia and lower southern Vietnam. This expansion will create additional risk areas for human infection from P. lylei in Thailand. Our combined predictive risk maps showed that central Thailand, inhabited by 2.3 million people, is considered highly suitable for the zoonotic transmission of NiV from P. lylei. These current and future NiV transmission risk maps can be used to prioritize sites for active virus surveillance and developing awareness and prevention programs to reduce the risk of NiV spillover and spread in Thailand.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aingorn Chaiyes
- School of Agricultural and Cooperatives, Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, Nonthaburi, 11120, Thailand
| | - Prateep Duengkae
- Special Research Unit for Wildlife Genomics, Department of Forest Biology, Faculty of Forestry, Kasetsart University, Bangkok, 10900, Thailand.
- Center for Advanced Studies in Tropical Natural Resources, Kasetsart University, Chatuchak, Bangkok, 10900, Thailand.
- Animal Genomics and Bioresource Research Unit (AGB Research Unit), Faculty of Science, Kasetsart University, Bangkok, 10900, Thailand.
| | - Warong Suksavate
- Special Research Unit for Wildlife Genomics, Department of Forest Biology, Faculty of Forestry, Kasetsart University, Bangkok, 10900, Thailand
- Center for Advanced Studies in Tropical Natural Resources, Kasetsart University, Chatuchak, Bangkok, 10900, Thailand
| | - Nantachai Pongpattananurak
- Special Research Unit for Wildlife Genomics, Department of Forest Biology, Faculty of Forestry, Kasetsart University, Bangkok, 10900, Thailand
- Center for Advanced Studies in Tropical Natural Resources, Kasetsart University, Chatuchak, Bangkok, 10900, Thailand
| | - Supaporn Wacharapluesadee
- King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital Faculty of Medicine, Thai Red Cross Emerging Infectious Diseases - Health Science Centre, World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Research and Training on Viral Zoonoses, Chulalongkorn University, Patumwan, Bangkok, 10330, Thailand
| | | | - Kornsorn Srikulnath
- Special Research Unit for Wildlife Genomics, Department of Forest Biology, Faculty of Forestry, Kasetsart University, Bangkok, 10900, Thailand
- Center for Advanced Studies in Tropical Natural Resources, Kasetsart University, Chatuchak, Bangkok, 10900, Thailand
- Animal Genomics and Bioresource Research Unit (AGB Research Unit), Faculty of Science, Kasetsart University, Bangkok, 10900, Thailand
| | - Sura Pattanakiat
- Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom, 73170, Thailand
| | - Thiravat Hemachudha
- King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital Faculty of Medicine, Thai Red Cross Emerging Infectious Diseases - Health Science Centre, World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Research and Training on Viral Zoonoses, Chulalongkorn University, Patumwan, Bangkok, 10330, Thailand
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Bartlow AW, Machalaba C, Karesh WB, Fair JM. Biodiversity and Global Health: Intersection of Health, Security, and the Environment. Health Secur 2021; 19:214-222. [PMID: 33733864 DOI: 10.1089/hs.2020.0112] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Andrew W Bartlow
- Andrew W. Bartlow, PhD, and Jeanne M. Fair, PhD, are Scientists; both in Biosecurity and Public Health, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM. Catherine Machalaba, PhD, MPH, is Senior Policy Advisor and Senior Research Scientist and William B. Karesh, DVM, is Executive Vice President for Health and Policy; both at EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY
| | - Catherine Machalaba
- Andrew W. Bartlow, PhD, and Jeanne M. Fair, PhD, are Scientists; both in Biosecurity and Public Health, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM. Catherine Machalaba, PhD, MPH, is Senior Policy Advisor and Senior Research Scientist and William B. Karesh, DVM, is Executive Vice President for Health and Policy; both at EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY
| | - William B Karesh
- Andrew W. Bartlow, PhD, and Jeanne M. Fair, PhD, are Scientists; both in Biosecurity and Public Health, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM. Catherine Machalaba, PhD, MPH, is Senior Policy Advisor and Senior Research Scientist and William B. Karesh, DVM, is Executive Vice President for Health and Policy; both at EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY
| | - Jeanne M Fair
- Andrew W. Bartlow, PhD, and Jeanne M. Fair, PhD, are Scientists; both in Biosecurity and Public Health, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM. Catherine Machalaba, PhD, MPH, is Senior Policy Advisor and Senior Research Scientist and William B. Karesh, DVM, is Executive Vice President for Health and Policy; both at EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY
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Shah HA, Huxley P, Elmes J, Murray KA. Agricultural land-uses consistently exacerbate infectious disease risks in Southeast Asia. Nat Commun 2019; 10:4299. [PMID: 31541099 PMCID: PMC6754503 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12333-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2019] [Accepted: 08/31/2019] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Agriculture has been implicated as a potential driver of human infectious diseases. However, the generality of disease-agriculture relationships has not been systematically assessed, hindering efforts to incorporate human health considerations into land-use and development policies. Here we perform a meta-analysis with 34 eligible studies and show that people who live or work in agricultural land in Southeast Asia are on average 1.74 (CI 1.47-2.07) times as likely to be infected with a pathogen than those unexposed. Effect sizes are greatest for exposure to oil palm, rubber, and non-poultry based livestock farming and for hookworm (OR 2.42, CI 1.56-3.75), malaria (OR 2.00, CI 1.46-2.73), scrub typhus (OR 2.37, CI 1.41-3.96) and spotted fever group diseases (OR 3.91, CI 2.61-5.85). In contrast, no change in infection risk is detected for faecal-oral route diseases. Although responses vary by land-use and disease types, results suggest that agricultural land-uses exacerbate many infectious diseases in Southeast Asia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hiral A Shah
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
- Grantham Institute-Climate Change and the Environment-Imperial College London, London, UK.
| | - Paul Huxley
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Grantham Institute-Climate Change and the Environment-Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Jocelyn Elmes
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kris A Murray
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Grantham Institute-Climate Change and the Environment-Imperial College London, London, UK
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Plowright RK, Becker DJ, Crowley DE, Washburne AD, Huang T, Nameer PO, Gurley ES, Han BA. Prioritizing surveillance of Nipah virus in India. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2019; 13:e0007393. [PMID: 31246966 PMCID: PMC6597033 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007393] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2018] [Accepted: 04/16/2019] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
The 2018 outbreak of Nipah virus in Kerala, India, highlights the need for global surveillance of henipaviruses in bats, which are the reservoir hosts for this and other viruses. Nipah virus, an emerging paramyxovirus in the genus Henipavirus, causes severe disease and stuttering chains of transmission in humans and is considered a potential pandemic threat. In May 2018, an outbreak of Nipah virus began in Kerala, > 1800 km from the sites of previous outbreaks in eastern India in 2001 and 2007. Twenty-three people were infected and 21 people died (16 deaths and 18 cases were laboratory confirmed). Initial surveillance focused on insectivorous bats (Megaderma spasma), whereas follow-up surveys within Kerala found evidence of Nipah virus in fruit bats (Pteropus medius). P. medius is the confirmed host in Bangladesh and is now a confirmed host in India. However, other bat species may also serve as reservoir hosts of henipaviruses. To inform surveillance of Nipah virus in bats, we reviewed and analyzed the published records of Nipah virus surveillance globally. We applied a trait-based machine learning approach to a subset of species that occur in Asia, Australia, and Oceana. In addition to seven species in Kerala that were previously identified as Nipah virus seropositive, we identified at least four bat species that, on the basis of trait similarity with known Nipah virus-seropositive species, have a relatively high likelihood of exposure to Nipah or Nipah-like viruses in India. These machine-learning approaches provide the first step in the sequence of studies required to assess the risk of Nipah virus spillover in India. Nipah virus surveillance not only within Kerala but also elsewhere in India would benefit from a research pipeline that included surveys of known and predicted reservoirs for serological evidence of past infection with Nipah virus (or cross reacting henipaviruses). Serosurveys should then be followed by longitudinal spatial and temporal studies to detect shedding and isolate virus from species with evidence of infection. Ecological studies will then be required to understand the dynamics governing prevalence and shedding in bats and the contacts that could pose a risk to public health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Raina K. Plowright
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, United States of America
| | - Daniel J. Becker
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, United States of America
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Disease, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, United States of America
| | - Daniel E. Crowley
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, United States of America
| | - Alex D. Washburne
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, United States of America
| | - Tao Huang
- Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY, United States of America
| | - P. O. Nameer
- Centre for Wildlife Studies, College of Forestry, Kerala Agricultural University KAU (PO), Thrissur, Kerala, India
| | - Emily S. Gurley
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Barbara A. Han
- Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY, United States of America
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Martin G, Yanez-Arenas C, Chen C, Plowright RK, Webb RJ, Skerratt LF. Climate Change Could Increase the Geographic Extent of Hendra Virus Spillover Risk. ECOHEALTH 2018; 15:509-525. [PMID: 29556762 PMCID: PMC6245089 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-018-1322-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2017] [Revised: 12/10/2017] [Accepted: 01/29/2018] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
Disease risk mapping is important for predicting and mitigating impacts of bat-borne viruses, including Hendra virus (Paramyxoviridae:Henipavirus), that can spillover to domestic animals and thence to humans. We produced two models to estimate areas at potential risk of HeV spillover explained by the climatic suitability for its flying fox reservoir hosts, Pteropus alecto and P. conspicillatus. We included additional climatic variables that might affect spillover risk through other biological processes (such as bat or horse behaviour, plant phenology and bat foraging habitat). Models were fit with a Poisson point process model and a log-Gaussian Cox process. In response to climate change, risk expanded southwards due to an expansion of P. alecto suitable habitat, which increased the number of horses at risk by 175-260% (110,000-165,000). In the northern limits of the current distribution, spillover risk was highly uncertain because of model extrapolation to novel climatic conditions. The extent of areas at risk of spillover from P. conspicillatus was predicted shrink. Due to a likely expansion of P. alecto into these areas, it could replace P. conspicillatus as the main HeV reservoir. We recommend: (1) HeV monitoring in bats, (2) enhancing HeV prevention in horses in areas predicted to be at risk, (3) investigate and develop mitigation strategies for areas that could experience reservoir host replacements.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gerardo Martin
- One Health Research Group, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia.
- , Guadalupe Victoria, Mexico.
- Ecological Health Research Group, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St. Mary's campus, Praed Street, London, W2 1NY, UK.
| | - Carlos Yanez-Arenas
- Laboratorio de Conservación de la Biodiversidad, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Yucatán, Universidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico
| | - Carla Chen
- Australian Institute of Marine Sciences, Townsville, QLD, Australia
| | - Raina K Plowright
- Bozeman Disease Ecology Lab, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA
| | - Rebecca J Webb
- One Health Research Group, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
| | - Lee F Skerratt
- One Health Research Group, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
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Deka MA, Morshed N. Mapping Disease Transmission Risk of Nipah Virus in South and Southeast Asia. Trop Med Infect Dis 2018; 3:E57. [PMID: 30274453 PMCID: PMC6073609 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed3020057] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2018] [Revised: 05/24/2018] [Accepted: 05/25/2018] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Since 1998, Nipah virus (NiV) (genus: Henipavirus; family: Paramyxoviridae), an often-fatal and highly virulent zoonotic pathogen, has caused sporadic outbreak events. Fruit bats from the genus Pteropus are the wildlife reservoirs and have a broad distribution throughout South and Southeast Asia, and East Africa. Understanding the disease biogeography of NiV is critical to comprehending the potential geographic distribution of this dangerous zoonosis. This study implemented the R packages ENMeval and BIOMOD2 as a means of modeling regional disease transmission risk and additionally measured niche similarity between the reservoir Pteropus and the ecological characteristics of outbreak localities with the Schoener's D index and I statistic. Results indicate a relatively high degree of niche overlap between models in geographic and environmental space (D statistic, 0.64; and I statistic, 0.89), and a potential geographic distribution encompassing 19% (2,963,178 km²) of South and Southeast Asia. This study should contribute to current and future efforts to understand the critical ecological contributors and geography of NiV. Furthermore, this study can be used as a geospatial guide to identify areas of high disease transmission risk and to inform national public health surveillance programs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark A Deka
- Department of Geography, Texas State University, 601 University Drive, San Marcos, TX 78666, USA.
| | - Niaz Morshed
- Department of Geography, Texas State University, 601 University Drive, San Marcos, TX 78666, USA.
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Abstract
Climate change is expected to impact across every domain of society, including health. The majority of the world's population is susceptible to pathological, infectious disease whose life cycles are sensitive to environmental factors across different physical phases including air, water and soil. Nearly all so-called neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) fall into this category, meaning that future geographic patterns of transmission of dozens of infections are likely to be affected by climate change over the short (seasonal), medium (annual) and long (decadal) term. This review offers an introduction into the terms and processes deployed in modelling climate change and reviews the state of the art in terms of research into how climate change may affect future transmission of NTDs. The 34 infections included in this chapter are drawn from the WHO NTD list and the WHO blueprint list of priority diseases. For the majority of infections, some evidence is available of which environmental factors contribute to the population biology of parasites, vectors and zoonotic hosts. There is a general paucity of published research on the potential effects of decadal climate change, with some exceptions, mainly in vector-borne diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark Booth
- Newcastle University, Institute of Health and Society, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom.
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Walsh MG, Wiethoelter A, Haseeb MA. The impact of human population pressure on flying fox niches and the potential consequences for Hendra virus spillover. Sci Rep 2017; 7:8226. [PMID: 28811483 PMCID: PMC5557840 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-08065-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2017] [Accepted: 07/06/2017] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Hendra virus (HeV) is an emerging pathogen of concern in Australia given its ability to spillover from its reservoir host, pteropid bats, to horses and further on to humans, and the severe clinical presentation typical in these latter incidental hosts. Specific human pressures over recent decades, such as expanding human populations, urbanization, and forest fragmentation, may have altered the ecological niche of Pteropus species acting as natural HeV reservoirs and may modulate spillover risk. This study explored the influence of inter-decadal net human local migration between 1970 and 2000 on changes in the habitat suitability to P. alecto and P. conspicillatus from 1980 to 2015 in eastern Australia. These ecological niches were modeled using boosted regression trees and subsequently fitted, along with additional landscape factors, to HeV spillovers to explore the spatial dependency of this zoonosis. The spatial model showed that the ecological niche of these two flying fox species, the human footprint, and proximity to woody savanna were each strongly associated with HeV spillover and together explained most of the spatial dependency exhibited by this zoonosis. These findings reinforce the potential for anthropogenic pressures to shape the landscape epidemiology of HeV spillover.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael G Walsh
- Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity, Westmead Institute for Medical Research, University of Sydney, Westmead, New South Wales, Australia.
| | - Anke Wiethoelter
- Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - M A Haseeb
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, State University of New York, Downstate Medical Center, Brooklyn, New York, USA.,Departments of Cell Biology, Pathology and Medicine, College of Medicine, State University of New York, Downstate Medical Center, Brooklyn, New York, USA
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11
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Han BA, Kramer AM, Drake JM. Global Patterns of Zoonotic Disease in Mammals. Trends Parasitol 2016; 32:565-577. [PMID: 27316904 PMCID: PMC4921293 DOI: 10.1016/j.pt.2016.04.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 226] [Impact Index Per Article: 28.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2016] [Revised: 04/04/2016] [Accepted: 04/11/2016] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
As the frequency and prevalence of zoonotic diseases increase worldwide, investigating how mammal host distributions determine patterns of human disease and predicting which regions are at greatest risk for future zoonotic disease emergence are two goals which both require better understanding of the current distributions of zoonotic hosts and pathogens. We review here the existing data about mammalian host species, comparing and contrasting these patterns against global maps of zoonotic hosts from all 27 orders of terrestrial mammals. We discuss the zoonotic potential of host species from the top six most species-rich mammal groups, and review the literature to identify analytical and conceptual gaps that must be addressed to improve our ability to generate testable predictions about zoonotic diseases originating from wild mammals. Predicting zoonotic disease events remains a prominent scientific challenge. In response to increasing frequency of emerging infectious disease events caused by animal-borne (zoonotic) pathogens, recent advances assess the biogeographic patterns of human infectious diseases. A disproportionate representation of mammal-borne zoonoses among emerging human disease has sparked research emphasis on mammal reservoirs because improved understanding of mammal host distributions may lead to improved predictions of future hotspots for zoonotic disease emergence. In addition to spatial distributions of animal hosts and human disease, the concept of ‘disease risk’ is a topic of intense analysis, and has been quantified on the basis of hindsight where regions undergoing frequent or intense human disease events are categorized as possessing numerous factors that interact to increase disease risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Barbara A Han
- Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Box AB Millbrook, NY 12545, USA.
| | - Andrew M Kramer
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, 140 East Green Street, Athens, GA 30602, USA
| | - John M Drake
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, 140 East Green Street, Athens, GA 30602, USA; Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
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