Global estimates of the fitness advantage of SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron

SARS-CoV-2 infections before, during, and after the Omicron wave: a 2-year Indian community cohort study

Background

We measured the incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections and re-infections in an adult community-based cohort in southern India.

Methods

We conducted a 2-year follow-up on 1229 participants enrolled between May and October 2021. Participants provided vaccination histories, weekly saliva samples, and blood samples at 0, 6, 12, and 24 months. Salivary reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and Meso-Scale Discovery panels were used for SARS-CoV-2 detection and anti-spike, anti-nucleocapsid immunoglobulin G quantification. Whole genome sequencing was performed on a subset of positive samples. SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence was measured across Pre-Omicron (May-December 2021), Omicron-I (December 2021-June 2022), and Omicron-II (July 2022-October 2023) periods.

Findings

In total, 1166 (95%) participants with 83% seropositivity at baseline completed the follow-up, providing 2205 person-years of observation. Utilizing both RT-PCR and serology we identified 1306 infections and yielded an incidence rate of 591.3 per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval, 559.6-624.3), which peaked during Omicron-I at 1418.1 per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval, 1307.4-1535.6). During Omicron-I and II, neither prior infection nor vaccination conferred protection against infection. Overall, 74% of infections were asymptomatic.

Interpretation

Integrated RT-PCR and serology revealed significant SARS-CoV-2 infection frequency, highlighting the prevalence of asymptomatic cases among previously infected or vaccinated individuals. This underscores the effectiveness of combining surveillance strategies when monitoring pandemic trends and confirms the role of non-invasive sampling in ensuring participant compliance, reflecting national transmission patterns.

Funding

The study was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Combining genomic data and infection estimates to characterize the complex dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants in the US

Omicron surged as a variant of concern in late 2021. Several distinct Omicron variants appeared and overtook each other. We combined variant frequencies and infection estimates from a nowcasting model for each US state to estimate variant-specific infections, attack rates, and effective reproduction numbers (Rt). BA.1 rapidly emerged, and we estimate that it infected 47.7% of the US population before it was replaced by BA.2. We estimate that BA.5 infected 35.7% of the US population, persisting in circulation for nearly 6 months. Other variants-BA.2, BA.4, and XBB-together infected 30.7% of the US population. We found a positive correlation between the state-level BA.1 attack rate and social vulnerability and a negative correlation between the BA.1 and BA.2 attack rates. Our findings illustrate the complex interplay between viral evolution, population susceptibility, and social factors during the Omicron emergence in the US.

SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern fitness and adaptation in primary human airway epithelia

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic is characterized by the emergence of novel variants of concern (VOCs) that replace ancestral strains. Here, we dissect the complex selective pressures by evaluating variant fitness and adaptation in human respiratory tissues. We evaluate viral properties and host responses to reconstruct forces behind D614G through Omicron (BA.1) emergence. We observe differential replication in airway epithelia, differences in cellular tropism, and virus-induced cytotoxicity. D614G accumulates the most mutations after infection, supporting zoonosis and adaptation to the human airway. We perform head-to-head competitions and observe the highest fitness for Gamma and Delta. Under these conditions, RNA recombination favors variants encoding the B.1.617.1 lineage 3' end. Based on viral growth kinetics, Alpha, Gamma, and Delta exhibit increased fitness compared to D614G. In contrast, the global success of Omicron likely derives from increased transmission and antigenic variation. Our data provide molecular evidence to support epidemiological observations of VOC emergence.

Extending EpiEstim to estimate the transmission advantage of pathogen variants in real-time: SARS-CoV-2 as a case-study

The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has demonstrated that emerging variants can set back the global COVID-19 response. The ability to rapidly assess the threat of new variants is critical for timely optimisation of control strategies. We present a novel method to estimate the effective transmission advantage of a new variant compared to a reference variant combining information across multiple locations and over time. Through an extensive simulation study designed to mimic real-time epidemic contexts, we show that our method performs well across a range of scenarios and provide guidance on its optimal use and interpretation of results. We also provide an open-source software implementation of our method. The computational speed of our tool enables users to rapidly explore spatial and temporal variations in the estimated transmission advantage. We estimate that the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant is 1.46 (95% Credible Interval 1.44-1.47) and 1.29 (95% CrI 1.29-1.30) times more transmissible than the wild type, using data from England and France respectively. We further estimate that Delta is 1.77 (95% CrI 1.69-1.85) times more transmissible than Alpha (England data). Our approach can be used as an important first step towards quantifying the threat of emerging or co-circulating variants of infectious pathogens in real-time.

Comparative epidemic expansion of SARS-CoV-2 variants Delta and Omicron in the Brazilian State of Amazonas

The SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) Delta and Omicron spread globally during mid and late 2021, respectively. In this study, we compare the dissemination dynamics of these VOCs in the Amazonas state, one of Brazil's most heavily affected regions. We sequenced the virus genome from 4128 patients collected in Amazonas between July 1st, 2021, and January 31st, 2022, and investigated the viral dynamics using a phylodynamic approach. The VOCs Delta and Omicron BA.1 displayed similar patterns of phylogeographic spread but different epidemic dynamics. The replacement of Gamma by Delta was gradual and occurred without an upsurge of COVID-19 cases, while the rise of Omicron BA.1 was extremely fast and fueled a sharp increase in cases. Thus, the dissemination dynamics and population-level impact of new SARS-CoV-2 variants introduced in the Amazonian population after mid-2021, a setting with high levels of acquired immunity, greatly vary according to their viral phenotype.

On the Evolutionary Trajectory of SARS-CoV-2: Host Immunity as a Driver of Adaptation in RNA Viruses

Host immunity can exert a complex array of selective pressures on a pathogen, which can drive highly mutable RNA viruses towards viral escape. The plasticity of a virus depends on its rate of mutation, as well as the balance of fitness cost and benefit of mutations, including viral adaptations to the host's immune response. Since its emergence, SARS-CoV-2 has diversified into genetically distinct variants, which are characterised often by clusters of mutations that bolster its capacity to escape human innate and adaptive immunity. Such viral escape is well documented in the context of other pandemic RNA viruses such as the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and influenza virus. This review describes the selection pressures the host's antiviral immunity exerts on SARS-CoV-2 and other RNA viruses, resulting in divergence of viral strains into more adapted forms. As RNA viruses obscure themselves from host immunity, they uncover weak points in their own armoury that can inform more comprehensive, long-lasting, and potentially cross-protective vaccine coverage.