Predictors of a viral response and subsequent virological treatment failure in patients with HIV starting a protease inhibitor

Predictors of Time to Viral Load Suppression of Adult PLWHIV on ART in Arba Minch General Hospital: A Follow up Study

BACKGROUND

Access to antiretroviral drugs for all infected persons in need is a global health priority. The viral load and CD4 counts should be monitored regularly. The plasma viral load should be reduced by as much and for as short as possible. Identifying factors that predict time to viral load suppression of patients on antiretroviral therapy regimens is thus vital to optimizing therapeutic success. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the time to viral load suppression and identify predictors of time to viral load suppression of patients on antiretroviral therapy at Arba Minch general Hospital.

METHODS

This study was observational study using data abstracted from medical records, patient interviews and laboratory work-up during 6 months of follow up. The data were collected from 152 naive to anti-retro viral drug patients. The univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were done to identify predictors.

RESULT

The median survival time of viral load suppression among adult patients living with HIV was 3 months with 95% CI (2.68, 3.32). The Cox-proportional hazard analysis shows baseline CD4 count of <200cells/mm3 (AHR=0.683, CI:0.471, 0.990), baseline viral load of <10,000 copies/ml (AHR=4.135, CI:1.835, 9.317), having baseline Cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (AHR=1.997, CI:1.108, 3.600), having baseline Isoniazid preventive therapy (AHR=3.085, CI:1.721, 5.529) and good adherence level to ART (AHR=2.648, CI: 1.202, 5.834) significantly predict the time to viral load suppression.

CONCLUSION

Early improvement and maintenance of CD4 count and viral load to normal level should be attained through streamlining and strengthening monitoring and counseling of patients on adherence to ART, Cotrimoxazole and Isoniazid drugs.

Therapeutic drug monitoring in treatment-experienced HIV-infected patients receiving darunavir-based salvage regimens: A case series

Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) constitutes a compelling approach for the optimization of antiretroviral therapy in treatment-experienced HIV-1 patients. While various inhibitory indices have been proposed to predict virologic outcome, there is a lack of consensus on the clinical value of TDM. Here, we report the comparative results of TDM in 14 HIV-1-infected patients who had previously received at least two different PI-based regimens and who initiated darunavir (DRV)-based salvage therapy. Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) parameters were calculated for each subject. Seventy-nine percent of subjects had a viral load <50 copies/mL at 48 weeks. The only subject with two consecutive viral loads >50 copies/mL at the end of the study period was the patient with the lowest instantaneous inhibitory potential (IIP). The sample size was insufficient to show an association between any of the PK/PD parameters and virologic response. Based on our observations, we suggest that the utility of IIP for antiretroviral combinations for the prediction of virologic outcome in HIV-1 drug-experienced patients should be studied further.

Long-term effectiveness of recommended boosted protease inhibitor-based antiretroviral therapy in Europe

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to evaluate the long-term response to antiretroviral treatment (ART) based on atazanavir/ritonavir (ATZ/r)-, darunavir/ritonavir (DRV/r)-, and lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r)-containing regimens.

METHODS

Data were analysed for 5678 EuroSIDA-enrolled patients starting a DRV/r-, ATZ/r- or LPV/r-containing regimen between 1 January 2000 and 30 June 2013. Separate analyses were performed for the following subgroups of patients: (1) ART-naïve subjects (8%) at ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) initiation; (2) ART-experienced individuals (44%) initiating the new PI/r with a viral load (VL) ≤500 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL; and (3) ART-experienced patients (48%) initiating the new PI/r with a VL >500 copies/mL. Virological failure (VF) was defined as two consecutive VL measurements >200 copies/mL ≥24 weeks after PI/r initiation. Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox models were used to compare risks of failure by PI/r-based regimen. The main analysis was performed with intention-to-treat (ITT) ignoring treatment switches.

RESULTS

The time to VF favoured DRV/r over ATZ/r, and both were superior to LPV/r (log-rank test; P < 0.02) in all analyses. Nevertheless, the risk of VF in ART-naïve patients was similar regardless of the PI/r initiated after controlling for potential confounders. The risk of VF in both treatment-experienced groups was lower for DRV/r than for ATZ/r, which, in turn, was lower than for LPV/r-based ART.

CONCLUSIONS

Although confounding by indication and calendar year cannot be completely ruled out, in ART-experienced subjects the long-term effectiveness of DRV/r-containing regimens appears to be greater than that of ATZ/r and LPV/r.

Early virological response to HIV treatment: can we predict who is likely to experience subsequent treatment failure? Results from an observational cohort study, London, UK

INTRODUCTION

For people living with HIV, the first antiretroviral treatment (ART) regimen offers the best chance for a good virological response. Early identification of those unlikely to respond to first-line ART could enable timely intervention and increase chances of a good initial treatment response. In this study we assess the extent to which the HIV RNA viral load (VL) at 1 and 3 months is predictive of first-line treatment outcome at 6 months. Methods All previously ART-naive individuals starting ART at two London centres since 2000 with baseline (-180 to 3 days) VL >500 c/mL had a VL measurement between 6 and 12 months after starting ART, and at least one at month 1 (4-60 days) or month 3 (61-120 days) were included. Lack of treatment response was defined as (i) VL >200 copies/mL at 6 months or (ii) VL >200 copies/mL at 6 months or simultaneous switch in drugs from at least two different drug classes before 6 months. The association with VL measurements at 1 and 3 months post-ART; change from pre-ART in these values; and CD4 count measurements at 1 and 3 months were assessed using logistic regression models. The relative fit of the models was compared using the Akaike information criterion (AIC).

RESULTS

A total of 198 out of 3258 individuals (6%) experienced lack of treatment response at 6 months (definition i), increasing to 511 (16%) for definition (ii). Those with a 1-month (day 4-60 window) VL of <1000, 1000-9999, 10,000-99,999 and >100,000 copies/ml had a 4%, 8%, 23% and 24% chance, respectively, of subsequently experiencing treatment non-response at 6 months (definition (i)). When considering the 3-month (day 61-120 window) VL, the chances of subsequently experiencing treatment non-response were, respectively, 3%, 25%, 67% and 75%. Results were similar for definition (ii).

CONCLUSIONS

Whilst 3-month VL provides good discrimination between low and high risk of treatment failure, 1-month VL does not. Presence of a VL >10,000 copies/ml after 3 months of ART is a cutoff above which individuals are at a sufficiently higher risk of non-response that they may be considered for intervention.

Elevated CD8 T-cell counts and virological failure in HIV-infected patients after combination antiretroviral therapy

Elevated CD8 counts with combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) initiation may be an early warning indicator for future treatment failure. Thus, we investigated whether elevated CD8 counts were associated with virological failure (VF) in the first 4 years of cART in Asian HIV-infected patients in a multicenter regional cohort.We included patients from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD). Patients were included in the analysis if they started cART between 1996 and 2013 with at least one CD8 measurement within 6 months prior to cART initiation and at least one CD8 and viral load (VL) measurement beyond 6 months after starting cART. We defined VF as VL ≥400 copies/mL after 6 months on cART. Elevated CD8 was defined as CD8 ≥1200 cells/μL. Time to VF was modeled using Cox regression analysis, stratified by site.In total, 2475 patients from 19 sites were included in this analysis, of whom 665 (27%) experienced VF in the first 4 years of cART. The overall rate of VF was 12.95 per 100 person-years. In the multivariate model, the most recent elevated CD8 was significantly associated with a greater hazard of VF (HR = 1.35, 95% CI 1.14-1.61; P = 0.001). However, the sensitivity analysis showed that time-lagged CD8 measured at least 6 months prior to our virological endpoint was not statistically significant (P = 0.420).This study indicates that the relationship between the most recent CD8 count and VF was possibly due to the CD8 cells reacting to the increase in VL rather than causing the VL increase itself. However, CD8 levels may be a useful indicator for VF in HIV-infected patients after starting cART.

High level of virological suppression among HIV-infected adults receiving combination antiretroviral therapy in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Plasma viral load (pVL) is a key indicator of therapeutic response in HIV-infected patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), but is often unavailable in routine clinical care in resource-limited settings. Previous model-based simulation studies have suggested that the benefits of routine pVL monitoring among patients on first-line regimens in resource-limited settings are modest, but this needs corroboration in well-defined study populations.

METHODS

We investigated virological suppression levels and identified predictors of detectable viraemia among 870 randomly selected patients who started cART between May 2009 and April 2012 in 10 health-care facilities in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. A total of 656 (75.4%) patients, who were alive, were retained in HIV care and receiving cART for at least 6 months provided a blood sample for pVL measurement. Predictors of detectable viraemia were identified in a multivariate logistic regression model.

RESULTS

In on-treatment analysis, 94.5% (95% CI 92.5, 96.1) of the patients achieved virological suppression below 400 copies/ml after a median (IQR) of 26 (17-35) months on cART. When patients who were lost to follow-up, dead or stopped were assumed to have had detectable viraemia, the proportion of patients with virological suppression <400 copies/ml decreased to 74.6% (95% CI 71.5%, 77.4%). Younger age, lower educational status, <95% medication adherence, lower CD4(+) T-cell count at cART initiation and/or the diagnosis of immunological failure thereafter significantly predicted detectable viraemia.

CONCLUSIONS

Virological suppression levels can be high in an established ART programme in a resource-limited setting, even without the availability of routine pVL monitoring. Efforts to improve treatment outcomes should focus on younger and illiterate patients, earlier detection of HIV-positive status and cART initiation before patients are severely immunocompromised, and improving retention in care.

A simple self-reported adherence tool as a predictor of viral rebound in people with viral suppression on antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to investigate the relationship between self-reported antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence and virological outcomes in the multinational Strategies for Management of Antiretroviral Therapy (SMART) study.

METHODS

Eligible participants were from the continuous ART arm and had at least one viral load (VL) ≤ 50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL and a subsequent VL value (VL pair). Self-reported adherence was measured at each visit using a five-point Likert scale which employed a 7-day recall. High adherence was defined as taking 'all pills every day' (level 1) for every regimen component; all others had suboptimal adherence (levels 2 - 5). In individuals with VL suppression (≤ 50 copies/mL), the association between adherence (at the time of VL suppression) and VL rebound (> 200 copies/mL at next visit) was assessed using multivariable logistic regression with generalized estimating equations.

RESULTS

A total of 10 761 sets of VL pairs from 1986 participants were included in the study. For 1220 (11%) VL pairs, adherence was suboptimal. For 507 VL pairs (5%), VL rebound occurred. The risk of rebound generally increased as adherence decreased: 4.2% for level 1, 7.7% for level 2, 16.3% for level 3, 9.4% for level 4 and 12.9% for level 5. In multivariable analysis, suboptimal adherence at the time of suppression was associated with a 50% increased odds of experiencing subsequent VL rebound [odds ratio (OR) 1.51; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19-1.92; P = 0.0023], compared with high adherence.

CONCLUSIONS

Self-reported suboptimal adherence in people with VL suppression is associated with an increased risk of VL rebound. Our findings highlight the importance of continued adherence counselling, even in people with VL suppression, and to ensure that people with HIV infection maintain excellent adherence in order to minimize the risk of VL rebound.

Cost-effectiveness of enhanced syphilis screening among HIV-positive men who have sex with men: a microsimulation model

BACKGROUND

Syphilis co-infection risk has increased substantially among HIV-infected men who have sex with men (MSM). Frequent screening for syphilis and treatment of men who test positive might be a practical means of controlling the risk of infection and disease sequelae in this population.

PURPOSE

We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of strategies that increased the frequency and population coverage of syphilis screening in HIV-infected MSM receiving HIV care, relative to current standard of care.

METHODS

We developed a state-transition microsimulation model of syphilis natural history and medical care in HIV-infected MSM receiving care for HIV. We performed Monte Carlo simulations using input data derived from a large observational cohort in Ontario, Canada, and from published biomedical literature. Simulations compared usual care (57% of the population screened annually) to different combinations of more frequent (3- or 6-monthly) screening and higher coverage (100% screened). We estimated expected disease-specific outcomes, quality-adjusted survival, costs, and cost-effectiveness associated with each strategy from the perspective of a public health care payer.

RESULTS

Usual care was more costly and less effective than strategies with more frequent or higher coverage screening. Higher coverage strategies (with screening frequency of 3 or 6 months) were expected to be cost-effective based on usually cited willingness-to-pay thresholds. These findings were robust in the face of probabilistic sensitivity analyses, alternate cost-effectiveness thresholds, and alternate assumptions about duration of risk, program characteristics, and management of underlying HIV.

CONCLUSIONS

We project that higher coverage and more frequent syphilis screening of HIV-infected MSM would be a highly cost-effective health intervention, with many potentially viable screening strategies projected to both save costs and improve health when compared to usual care. The baseline requirement for regular blood testing in this group (i.e., for viral load monitoring) makes intensification of syphilis screening appear readily practicable.

Durability of first ART regimen and risk factors for modification, interruption or death in HIV-positive patients starting ART in Europe and North America 2002-2009

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the incidence of and risk factors for modifications to first antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimen, treatment interruption and death.

METHODS

A total of 21 801 patients from 18 cohorts in Europe and North America starting ART on regimens including at least two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and boosted protease inhibitor or non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor during 2002-2009 were included. Incidence of modifications (change of drug class, substitution/addition within class, or switch to nonstandard regimen), interruption or death and associations with patient characteristics were estimated using competing-risks methods.

RESULTS

During median 28 months follow-up, 8786 (40.3%) patients modified first ART, 2346 (10.8%) interrupted and 427 (2.0%) died before changing regimen. Three-year cumulative percentages of modification, interruption and death were 47, 12 and 2%, respectively. After adjustment, rates of interruption were highest for IDUs and lowest for MSM, and higher for patients starting ART with CD4 cell count above 350 cells/μl than other patients. Compared to efavirenz, patients on lopinavir and other protease inhibitors had higher rates of modification and interruption, on atazanavir had lower rates of class change, and on nevirapine higher rates of interruption. Those on tenofovir/emtricitabine backbone had lowest rates of substitutions and switches to nonstandard regimen, and on abacavir/lamivudine lowest rates of interruption. Rates of substitution and switches to nonstandard regimen were lower in 2006-2009.

CONCLUSION

Rates of modification and interruption were high, particularly in the first year of ART. Decreased rates of substitutions or switches to nonstandard regimen in recent years may be linked to greater use of well tolerated once-daily drugs.

Heterogeneity in outcomes of treated HIV-positive patients in Europe and North America: relation with patient and cohort characteristics

BACKGROUND

HIV cohort collaborations, which pool data from diverse patient cohorts, have provided key insights into outcomes of antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, the extent of, and reasons for, between-cohort heterogeneity in rates of AIDS and mortality are unclear.

METHODS

We obtained data on adult HIV-positive patients who started ART from 1998 without a previous AIDS diagnosis from 17 cohorts in North America and Europe. Patients were followed up from 1 month to 2 years after starting ART. We examined between-cohort heterogeneity in crude and adjusted (age, sex, HIV transmission risk, year, CD4 count and HIV-1 RNA at start of ART) rates of AIDS and mortality using random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression.

RESULTS

During 61 520 person-years, 754/38 706 (1.9%) patients died and 1890 (4.9%) progressed to AIDS. Between-cohort variance in mortality rates was reduced from 0.84 to 0.24 (0.73 to 0.28 for AIDS rates) after adjustment for patient characteristics. Adjusted mortality rates were inversely associated with cohorts' estimated completeness of death ascertainment [excellent: 96-100%, good: 90-95%, average: 75-89%; mortality rate ratio 0.66 (95% confidence interval 0.46-0.94) per category]. Mortality rate ratios comparing Europe with North America were 0.42 (0.31-0.57) before and 0.47 (0.30-0.73) after adjusting for completeness of ascertainment.

CONCLUSIONS

Heterogeneity between settings in outcomes of HIV treatment has implications for collaborative analyses, policy and clinical care. Estimated mortality rates may require adjustment for completeness of ascertainment. Higher mortality rate in North American, compared with European, cohorts was not fully explained by completeness of ascertainment and may be because of the inclusion of more socially marginalized patients with higher mortality risk.

Comparative effectiveness of initial antiretroviral therapy regimens: ACTG 5095 and 5142 clinical trials relative to ART-CC cohort study

BACKGROUND

The generalizability of antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinical trial efficacy findings to routine care settings is not well studied. We compared the relative effectiveness of initial ART regimens estimated in AIDS Clinical Trial Group (ACTG) randomized controlled trials with that among patients receiving ART at Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) study sites.

METHODS

Treatment-naive HIV-infected patients initiating identical ART regimens in ACTG trials (A5095 and A5142) and at 15 ART-CC cohort study sites were included. Virological failure (HIV-1 RNA >200 copies/mL) at 24 and 48 weeks, incident AIDS-defining events and mortality were measured according to study design (ART-CC cohort vs. ACTG trial) and stratified by third drug [abacavir (ABC), efavirenz (EFV), and lopinavir/r (LPV/r)]. We used logistic regression to estimate and compare odds ratios (OR) for virological failure between different regimens and study designs, and used Cox models to estimate and compare hazard ratios for AIDS and death.

RESULTS

Compared with patients receiving ABC, those receiving EFV had roughly half the odds of 24-week virologic failure (>200 copies/mL) in both ACTG 5095 (OR = 0.53, 95% confidence interval: 0.36 to 0.79) and ART-CC (0.46, 0.37 to 0.57). Virologic superiority of EFV (vs. ABC) seemed comparable in ART-CC and ACTG 5095 (ratio of ORs 0.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.54 to 1.35). Odds ratios for 48-week virologic failure, comparing EFV with LPV/r, were also comparable in ACTG 5142 and ART-CC (ratio of ORs: 0.87, 0.45 to 1.69).

CONCLUSIONS

Between ART regimen virologic efficacy of third drugs ABC, EFV, and LPV/r observed in the ACTG 5095 and 5142 trials seem generalizable to the routine care setting of ART-CC clinical cohorts.

Elevated CD8 counts during HAART are associated with HIV virologic treatment failure

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether elevated CD8 counts are associated with increased risk of virologic treatment failure in HIV-infected individuals.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

US Military HIV Natural History Study participants who initiated highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in 1996-2008 had 6- and 12-month post-HAART HIV RNA <400 copies per milliliter, ≥ 2 subsequent HIV viral loads and a baseline CD8 count were eligible (n = 817). Baseline was 12 months after the start of HAART, virologic failure (VF) was defined as confirmed HIV RNA ≥ 400 copies per milliliter, and CD8 counts ≥ 1200 cells per cubic millimeter were considered elevated. Cox models were used to examine the effect of baseline and time-updated CD8 counts on VF.

RESULTS

There were 216 failures for a rate of 5.6 per 100 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI): 4.9 to 6.4]. Among those initiating HAART in 2000-2008, the participants with elevated baseline CD8 counts had significantly greater risk of VF compared with those with baseline CD8 counts ≤ 600 cells per cubic millimeter [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.68, 95% CI: 1.13 to 6.35]. The participants with elevated CD8 counts at >20% of previous 6-month follow-up visits had a greater risk of failure at the current visit than those who did not (HR = 1.53, 95% CI: 1.14 to 2.06). Those with CD8 counts that increased after the start of HAART had a greater risk of failure than those with CD8 counts that decreased or remained the same (HR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.19 to 2.13).

CONCLUSIONS

Initial or serial elevated CD8 counts while on HAART or an increase in CD8 counts from HAART initiation may be early warnings for future treatment failure.

Clinical audit: virological and immunological response to combination antiretroviral therapy in HIV patients at a Sydney sexual health clinic

AIM

Bigge Park Centre (BPC) is a sexual health clinic located in a socially disadvantaged area in Southwest Sydney. This served as a retrospective clinical audit, documenting patient demographics, identifying factors associated with virological, immunological and discordant responses, evaluating the centre's ability in HIV control and investigating changes in practice from 1996 to 2007.

METHOD

Data including age, gender, ethnicity, mode of transmission, hepatitis co-infection, prior acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining-illness, HIV-1 RNA and CD4+cell counts of patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (CART) for treatment of HIV with at least 1-year follow up at the BPC were analysed. Results were compared with other cohorts in medical literature.

RESULTS

BPC manages HIV patients from diverse backgrounds. Sequential monotherapy was associated with poor virological control, lower CD4+cell recovery and discordant response. When patients who had sequential monotherapy were excluded, Caucasian race, high viral load at 1 month and triple-NRTI (nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor) regimen were associated with lack of virological control. Lower baseline viral load and triple-NRTI regimen were associated with lower CD4+cell recovery. Lower baseline CD4+cell count and prior diagnosis of AIDS were associated with discordant response. Virological control and CD4+cell recovery achieved were comparable to that documented in medical literature. There was no significant change over time in terms of timing of CART initiation, attainment of immunological response or virological control since the late 1990 s.

CONCLUSION

HIV control achieved at the BPC was comparable to that reported in medical literature. Enhancement of strategies to promote screening and improve adherence as well as performance of HIV resistance assessment and avoidance of triple-NRTI therapy will likely improve patient care.

Incidence of modifying or discontinuing first HAART regimen and its determinants in a cohort of HIV-infected patients from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Studies on the long-term safety and tolerability of HAART are scarce in developing countries. HAART has been universally available in Brazil since 1997, providing a unique opportunity to evaluate the incidence and risk factors for HAART discontinuation or modification. We analyzed retrospective data from 670 treatment-naive patients followed at the HIV cohort of Evandro Chagas Clinical Research Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, who first received HAART between January 1996 and December 2006. Our four outcomes of interest were treatment failure (TF-MOD), short-term toxicity (ST-MOD), long-term toxicity (LT-MOD), and overall modification/discontinuation (MOD, composed of TF-MOD, ST-MOD, LT-MOD, and other reasons). Risk factors were assessed using Cox's proportional hazards regression. Incidences of MOD, ST-MOD, LT-MOD, and TF-MOD were 28.3, 24.0, 4.0, and 5.6 per 100 persons-years, respectively. MOD was observed in 69% of the patients; 40% of the MODs were toxicity related. The risk of MOD in the first year of treatment was 32% (95% CI: 28.3-35.5%); the median time from HAART initiation to MOD was 14 months (IQR: 3.0-29.5). The most frequent reasons for ST-MOD were gastrointestinal; women had a higher hazard for ST-MOD. Metabolic toxicity was the most frequent reason for LT- MOD, particularly dislipidemia and lipodystrophy. Increased hazard of TF-MOD was observed among those with lower CD4(+) lymphocyte counts (<200 cells/mm(3)). Our results indicate that toxicities can compromise adherence and thus impact future treatment options. This is especially relevant in the context of limited access to second and third line treatment regimens.

Prognosis of patients treated with cART from 36 months after initiation, according to current and previous CD4 cell count and plasma HIV-1 RNA measurements

OBJECTIVES

CD4 cell count and plasma viral load are well known predictors of AIDS and mortality in HIV-1-infected patients treated with combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). This study investigated, in patients treated for at least 3 years, the respective prognostic importance of values measured at cART initiation, and 6 and 36 months later, for AIDS and death.

METHODS

Patients from 15 HIV cohorts included in the ART Cohort Collaboration, aged at least 16 years, antiretroviral-naive when they started cART and followed for at least 36 months after start of cART were eligible.

RESULTS

Among 14 208 patients, the median CD4 cell counts at 0, 6 and 36 months were 210, 320 and 450 cells/microl, respectively, and 78% of patients achieved viral load less than 500 copies/ml at 6 months. In models adjusted for characteristics at cART initiation and for values at all time points, values at 36 months were the strongest predictors of subsequent rates of AIDS and death. Although CD4 cell count and viral load at cART initiation were no longer prognostic of AIDS or of death after 36 months, viral load at 6 months and change in CD4 cell count from 6 to 36 months were prognostic for rates of AIDS from 36 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Although current values of CD4 cell count and HIV-1 RNA are the most important prognostic factors for subsequent AIDS and death rates in HIV-1-infected patients treated with cART, changes in CD4 cell count from 6 to 36 months and the value of 6-month HIV-1 RNA are also prognostic for AIDS.

Mortality of HIV-infected patients starting potent antiretroviral therapy: comparison with the general population in nine industrialized countries

BACKGROUND

Mortality in HIV-infected patients has declined substantially with combination antiretroviral therapy (ART), but it is unclear whether it has reached that of the general population. We compared mortality in patients starting ART in nine countries of Europe and North America with the corresponding general population, taking into account their response to ART.

METHODS

Eligible patients were enrolled in prospective cohort studies participating in the ART Cohort Collaboration. We calculated the ratio of observed to expected deaths from all causes [standardized mortality ratio (SMR)], measuring time from 6 months after starting ART, according to risk group, clinical stage at the start of ART and CD4 cell count and viral load at 6 months. Expected numbers of deaths were obtained from age-, sex- and country-specific mortality rates.

RESULTS

Among 29 935 eligible patients, 1134 deaths were recorded in 131 510 person-years of follow-up. The median age was 37 years, 8162 (27%) patients were females, 4400 (15%) were injecting drug users (IDUs) and 6738 (23%) had AIDS when starting ART. At 6 months, 23 539 patients (79%) had viral load measurements <or=500 copies/ml. The lowest SMR, 1.05 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82-1.35] was found for men who have sex with men (MSM) who started ART free of AIDS, reached a CD4 cell count of >or=350 cells/microL and suppressed viral replication to <or=500 copies/ml by the sixth month. In contrast, the SMR was 73.7 (95% CI 46.4-116.9) in IDUs who failed to suppress viral replication and had CD4 cell counts <50 cells/microL at 6 months. The percentage of patients with SMRs <2 was 46% for MSM, 42% for heterosexually infected patients and 0% for patients with a history of injection drug use. Corresponding percentages for SMRs >10 were 4, 14 and 47%.

CONCLUSIONS

In industrialized countries, the mortality experience of HIV-infected patients who start ART and survive the first 6 months continues to be higher than in the general population, but for many patients excess mortality is moderate and comparable with patients having other chronic conditions. Much of the excess mortality might be prevented by earlier diagnosis of HIV followed by timely initiation of ART.

Host sequence motifs shared by HIV predict response to antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND

The HIV viral genome mutates at a high rate and poses a significant long term health risk even in the presence of combination antiretroviral therapy. Current methods for predicting a patient's response to therapy rely on site-directed mutagenesis experiments and in vitro resistance assays. In this bioinformatics study we treat response to antiretroviral therapy as a two-body problem: response to therapy is considered to be a function of both the host and pathogen proteomes. We set out to identify potential responders based on the presence or absence of host protein and DNA motifs on the HIV proteome.

RESULTS

An alignment of thousands of HIV-1 sequences attested to extensive variation in nucleotide sequence but also showed conservation of eukaryotic short linear motifs on the protein coding regions. The reduction in viral load of patients in the Stanford HIV Drug Resistance Database exhibited a bimodal distribution after 24 weeks of antiretroviral therapy, with 2,000 copies/ml cutoff. Similarly, patients allocated into responder/non-responder categories based on consistent viral load reduction during a 24 week period showed clear separation. In both cases of phenotype identification, a set of features composed of short linear motifs in the reverse transcriptase region of HIV sequence accurately predicted a patient's response to therapy. Motifs that overlap resistance sites were highly predictive of responder identification in single drug regimens but these features lost importance in defining responders in multi-drug therapies.

CONCLUSION

HIV sequence mutates in a way that preferentially preserves peptide sequence motifs that are also found in the human proteome. The presence and absence of such motifs at specific regions of the HIV sequence is highly predictive of response to therapy. Some of these predictive motifs overlap with known HIV-1 resistance sites. These motifs are well established in bioinformatics databases and hence do not require identification via in vitro mutation experiments.

Timing of initiation of antiretroviral therapy in AIDS-free HIV-1-infected patients: a collaborative analysis of 18 HIV cohort studies

BACKGROUND

The CD4 cell count at which combination antiretroviral therapy should be started is a central, unresolved issue in the care of HIV-1-infected patients. In the absence of randomised trials, we examined this question in prospective cohort studies.

METHODS

We analysed data from 18 cohort studies of patients with HIV. Antiretroviral-naive patients from 15 of these studies were eligible for inclusion if they had started combination antiretroviral therapy (while AIDS-free, with a CD4 cell count less than 550 cells per microL, and with no history of injecting drug use) on or after Jan 1, 1998. We used data from patients followed up in seven of the cohorts in the era before the introduction of combination therapy (1989-95) to estimate distributions of lead times (from the first CD4 cell count measurement in an upper range to the upper threshold of a lower range) and unseen AIDS and death events (occurring before the upper threshold of a lower CD4 cell count range is reached) in the absence of treatment. These estimations were used to impute completed datasets in which lead times and unseen AIDS and death events were added to data for treated patients in deferred therapy groups. We compared the effect of deferred initiation of combination therapy with immediate initiation on rates of AIDS and death, and on death alone, in adjacent CD4 cell count ranges of width 100 cells per microL.

FINDINGS

Data were obtained for 21 247 patients who were followed up during the era before the introduction of combination therapy and 24 444 patients who were followed up from the start of treatment. Deferring combination therapy until a CD4 cell count of 251-350 cells per microL was associated with higher rates of AIDS and death than starting therapy in the range 351-450 cells per microL (hazard ratio [HR] 1.28, 95% CI 1.04-1.57). The adverse effect of deferring treatment increased with decreasing CD4 cell count threshold. Deferred initiation of combination therapy was also associated with higher mortality rates, although effects on mortality were less marked than effects on AIDS and death (HR 1.13, 0.80-1.60, for deferred initiation of treatment at CD4 cell count 251-350 cells per microL compared with initiation at 351-450 cells per microL).

INTERPRETATION

Our results suggest that 350 cells per microL should be the minimum threshold for initiation of antiretroviral therapy, and should help to guide physicians and patients in deciding when to start treatment.

Cytotoxicological analysis of a gp120 binding aptamer with cross-clade human immunodeficiency virus type 1 entry inhibition properties: comparison to conventional antiretrovirals

The long-term cumulative cytotoxicity of antiretrovirals (ARVs) is among the major causes of treatment failure in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and patients with AIDS. This calls for the development of novel ARVs with less or no cytotoxicity. In the present study, we compared the cytotoxic effects of a cross-clade HIV type 1-neutralizing aptamer called B40 with those of a panel of nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), protease inhibitors (PIs), and the entry inhibitor (EI) T20 in human cardiomyocytes and peripheral blood mononuclear cells. An initial screen in which cell death was used as the end-point measurement revealed that the B40 aptamer and T20 were the only test molecules that had insignificant (0.61 < P < 0.92) effects on the viability of both cell types at the maximum concentration used. PIs were the most toxic class (0.001 < P < 0.00001), followed by NNRTIs and NRTIs (0.1 < P < 0.00001). Further studies revealed that B40 and T20 did not interfere with the cellular activity of the cytochrome P450 3A4 enzyme (0.78 < P < 0.24) or monoamine oxidases A and B (0.83 < P < 0.56) when the activities of the enzymes were compared to those in untreated controls of both cell types. Mitochondrion-initiated cellular toxicity is closely associated with the use of ARVs. Therefore, we used real-time PCR to quantify the relative ratio of mitochondrial DNA to nuclear DNA as a marker of toxicity. The levels of mitochondrial DNA remained unchanged in cells exposed to the B40 aptamer compared to the levels in untreated control cells (0.5 > P > 0.06). These data support the development of B40 and related EI aptamers as new ARVs with no cytotoxicity at the estimated potential therapeutic dose.

Does short-term virologic failure translate to clinical events in antiretroviral-naïve patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in clinical practice?

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether differences in short-term virologic failure among commonly used antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens translate to differences in clinical events in antiretroviral-naïve patients initiating ART.

DESIGN

Observational cohort study of patients initiating ART between January 2000 and December 2005.

SETTING

The Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) is a collaboration of 15 HIV cohort studies from Canada, Europe, and the United States.

STUDY PARTICIPANTS

A total of 13 546 antiretroviral-naïve HIV-positive patients initiating ART with efavirenz, nevirapine, lopinavir/ritonavir, nelfinavir, or abacavir as third drugs in combination with a zidovudine and lamivudine nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor backbone.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Short-term (24-week) virologic failure (>500 copies/ml) and clinical events within 2 years of ART initiation (incident AIDS-defining event, death, and a composite measure of these two outcomes).

RESULTS

Compared with efavirenz as initial third drug, short-term virologic failure was more common with all other third drugs evaluated; nevirapine (adjusted odds ratio = 1.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.58-2.22), lopinavir/ritonavir (1.32, 95% CI = 1.12-1.57), nelfinavir (3.20, 95% CI = 2.74-3.74), and abacavir (2.13, 95% CI = 1.82-2.50). However, the rate of clinical events within 2 years of ART initiation appeared higher only with nevirapine (adjusted hazard ratio for composite outcome measure 1.27, 95% CI = 1.04-1.56) and abacavir (1.22, 95% CI = 1.00-1.48).

CONCLUSION

Among antiretroviral-naïve patients initiating therapy, between-ART regimen, differences in short-term virologic failure do not necessarily translate to differences in clinical outcomes. Our results should be interpreted with caution because of the possibility of residual confounding by indication.

Prognostic Importance of Anaemia in HIV Type-1-Infected Patients Starting Antiretroviral Therapy: Collaborative Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

Background

In HIV type-1-infected patients starting highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), the prognostic value of haemoglobin when starting HAART, and of changes in haemoglobin levels, are not well defined.

Methods

We combined data from 10 prospective studies of 12,100 previously untreated individuals (25% women). A total of 4,222 patients (35%) were anaemic: 131 patients (1.1%) had severe (<8.0 g/dl), 1,120 (9%) had moderate (male 8.0–<11.0 g/dl and female 8.0–<10.0 g/ dl) and 2,971 (25%) had mild (male 11.0–<13.0 g/dl and female 10.0–<12.0 g/dl) anaemia. We separately analysed progression to AIDS or death from baseline and from 6 months using Weibull models, adjusting for CD4+ T-cell count, age, sex and other variables.

Results

During 48,420 person-years of follow-up 1,448 patients developed at least one AIDS event and 857 patients died. Anaemia at baseline was independently associated with higher mortality: the adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for mild anaemia was 1.42 (1.17–1.73), for moderate anaemia 2.56 (2.07–3.18) and for severe anaemia 5.26 (3.55–7.81). Corresponding figures for progression to AIDS were 1.60 (1.37–1.86), 2.00 (1.66–2.40) and 2.24 (1.46–3.42). At 6 months the prevalence of anaemia declined to 26%. Baseline anaemia continued to predict mortality (and to a lesser extent progression to AIDS) in patients with normal haemoglobin or mild anaemia at 6 months.

Conclusions

Anaemia at the start of HAART is an important factor for short- and long-term prognosis, including in patients whose haemoglobin levels improved or normalized during the first 6 months of HAART.

Drug-susceptible HIV-1 infection despite intermittent fixed-dose combination tenofovir/emtricitabine as prophylaxis is associated with low-level viremia, delayed seroconversion, and an attenuated clinical course

BACKGROUND

Continued high rates of HIV-1 transmission have fueled interest in the use of antiretrovirals to prevent infection. Attenuated infection with failure of tenofovir as prophylaxis has been reported in animal models. Here, we report a case of HIV-1 infection despite intermittent use of fixed-dose combination tenofovir and emtricitabine (FTC).

METHODS

The patient was treated with tenofovir DF/FTC for reported repeated high-risk sexual exposures. After seroconversion, he was subjected to routine laboratory testing, CCR5 and HLA genotyping, and biopsy of gastrointestinal (GI) tissue. Resistance testing was performed both as bulk sequencing of plasma and cloning and sequencing of virus derived from plasma, peripheral blood mononuclear cells, and GI tissue.

RESULTS

In this patient with no readily identifiable modifying host factors, acute HIV-1 infection with tenofovir DF/FTC-susceptible HIV-1 was associated with an attenuated clinical course, very low postseroconversion HIV-1 RNA levels, slow kinetics of seroconversion, and relative sparing of mucosal CD4+ T cells in the GI tract.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the failure of tenofovir DF/FTC as prophylaxis, selection for drug-resistant transmission did not occur and the blunting of postinfection levels of viremia likely reduced the probability of subsequent forward transmissions during the acute phase. These results support continued investigations of the use of antiretrovirals as a means to reduce HIV-1 transmission.

The cost-effectiveness of counseling strategies to improve adherence to highly active antiretroviral therapy among men who have sex with men

OBJECTIVE

Inadequate adherence to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) may lead to poor health outcomes and the development of HIV strains that are resistant to HAART. The authors developed a model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of counseling interventions to improve adherence to HAART among men who have sex with men (MSM).

METHODS

The authors developed a dynamic compartmental model that incorporates HIV treatment, adherence to treatment, and infection transmission and progression. All data estimates were obtained from secondary sources. The authors evaluated a counseling intervention given prior to initiation of HAART and before all changes in drug regimens, combined with phone-in support while on HAART. They considered a moderate-prevalence and a high-prevalence population of MSM.

RESULTS

If the impact of HIV transmission is ignored, the counseling intervention has a cost-effectiveness ratio of $25,500 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. When HIV transmission is included, the cost-effectiveness ratio is much lower: $7400 and $8700 per QALY gained in the moderate- and high-prevalence populations, respectively. When the intervention is twice as costly per counseling session and half as effective as estimated in the base case (in terms of the number of individuals who become highly adherent, and who remain highly adherent), then the intervention costs $17,100 and $19,600 per QALY gained in the 2 populations, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Counseling to improve adherence to HAART increased length of life, modestly reduced HIV transmission, and cost substantially less than $50,000 per QALY gained over a wide range of assumptions but did not reduce the proportion of drug-resistant strains. Such counseling provides only modest benefit as a tool for HIV prevention but can provide significant benefit for individual patients at an affordable cost.

Predictive factors for immunological and virological endpoints in Thai patients receiving combination antiretroviral treatment

BACKGROUND

Routine CD4 count and HIV viral load monitoring is a financial barrier in developing countries.

METHODS

We assessed factors associated with CD4 counts < or =200 cells/microL and detectable viral load in Thai HIV-infected patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) at the HIV Netherlands Australia Thailand Research Collaboration and the Thai Red Cross AIDS Research Centre (HIV-NAT). Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models for multiple treatment failures were used to determine factors related to CD4 counts < or =200 cells/microL and detectable viral load. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models for CD4 counts < or =200 cells/microL were developed with and without viral load in order to build models applicable to contexts in which viral load is not available.

RESULTS

Four hundred and seventeen patients were included in the study. Fifty-four per cent were male, and the median CD4 count and log(10) viral load at baseline were 283 cells/microL and 4.3 log(10) HIV-1 RNA copies/mL, respectively. Independent factors related to CD4 count < or =200 cells/microL were CD4 count at baseline [hazards ratio (HR) 0.20/100 cells/microL; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.17-0.23] and changes in CD4 count (HR 0.22/100 cells/microL; 95% CI 0.17-0.28). Factors in multivariate models (in which viral load was considered for inclusion) were CD4 count at baseline (HR 0.21/100 cells/microL; 95% CI 0.18-0.24), changes in CD4 count (HR 0.25/100 cells/microL; 95% CI 0.19-0.32) and detectable viral load (HR 1.94; 95% CI 1.20-3.13). Predictive factors (independent of viral load) were triple ART or highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) (HR 0.28; 95% CI 0.22-0.36) and detectable viral load at baseline (HR 2.96; 95% CI 2.24-3.91). Conclusions CD4 count at baseline and changes in CD4 count were important in predicting CD4 counts < or =200 cells/microL. Triple ART and detectable viral load at baseline were important in predicting detectable viral load.

Predictors of failure of first-line antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected adults: Indian experience

OBJECTIVES

To study the incidence and risk factors for failure of treatment with antiretroviral therapy among adults in the national treatment program in India, and to estimate the possible number of persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) who will need a second-line treatment regimen in the next 3 and 3.5 years.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Data of a cohort of HIV-positive adult patients, who were enrolled in the government-sponsored antiretroviral therapy program, were obtained from the electronic medical record system of the largest HIV care center in India and subjected to analysis.

MAIN OUTCOMES

Treatment failure defined by the World Health Organization criteria, assessed immunologically on the basis of CD4 T cell count, with a minimum period of 12 months of follow-up and with a minimum of two CD4 T cell follow-up measures.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence of treatment failure in the 1370 adult patients included in the study was 3.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.9 to 4.9). Men had a 3.5 (1.6 to 7.4) times significantly greater risk of treatment failure. Patients who had negative changes in absolute lymphocyte count, hemoglobin concentration and body weight had 3.1 (1.6 to 6.2), 3.2 (1.6 to 6.2), and 3.5 (1.9 to 6.4) times significantly greater risk of treatment failure. In India, after 2007, by 2, 3, and 3.5 years, respectively, an estimated 16 000, 35 000, and 51 000 patients receiving antiretroviral therapy are likely to require second-line treatment.

CONCLUSION

Monitoring of hemoglobin concentration, absolute lymphocyte count, and body weight during follow-up emerged as inexpensive predictors of treatment failure in a resource-poor setting. A significant number of patients will need second-line therapy as a result of failure of their first-line antiretroviral therapy regimen in 3 and 3.5 years in India, and therefore the development of an appropriate policy for second-line drugs is urgently needed.

Prognosis of HIV-1-infected patients up to 5 years after initiation of HAART: collaborative analysis of prospective studies

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prognosis over 5 years of HIV-1-infected, treatment-naive patients starting HAART, taking into account the immunological and virological response to therapy.

DESIGN

A collaborative analysis of data from 12 cohorts in Europe and North America on 20,379 adults who started HAART between 1995 and 2003.

METHODS

Parametric survival models were used to predict the cumulative incidence at 5 years of a new AIDS-defining event or death, and death alone, first from the start of HAART and second from 6 months after the start of HAART. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions.

RESULTS

During 61 798 person-years of follow-up, 1005 patients died and an additional 1303 developed AIDS. A total of 10 046 (49%) patients started HAART either with a CD4 cell count of less than 200 cells/microl or with a diagnosis of AIDS. The 5-year risk of AIDS or death (death alone) from the start of HAART ranged from 5.6 to 77% (1.8-65%), depending on age, CD4 cell count, HIV-1-RNA level, clinical stage, and history of injection drug use. From 6 months the corresponding figures were 4.1-99% for AIDS or death and 1.3-96% for death alone.

CONCLUSION

On the basis of data collected routinely in HIV care, prognostic models with high discriminatory power over 5 years were developed for patients starting HAART in industrialized countries. A risk calculator that produces estimates for progression rates at years 1 to 5 after starting HAART is available from www.art-cohort-collaboration.org.

Continued improvement in survival among HIV-infected individuals with newer forms of highly active antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE

To characterize the temporal changes in mortality and life expectancy among HIV-positive individuals initiating antiretroviral therapy in British Columbia, Canada, from 1993 to 2004.

METHODS

This analysis was restricted to 2238 antiretroviral-naive HIV-positive individuals who started antiretroviral therapy between January 1993 and September 2004. The primary analysis endpoint was all-cause mortality stratified by four time periods: 1993-1995, 1996-1998, 1999-2001, and 2002-2004. Cox proportional hazard models, with associated 95% confidence intervals (CI), were used to estimate the hazard of death. Abridged life tables were constructed to compare life expectancies at the age of 20 years.

RESULTS

Product limit estimates of the cumulative mortality rate at 12 months after therapy initiation decreased from 15.8% (+/- 1.6%) in 1993-1995 to 6.1% (+/- 1.1%) in 2002-2004. Life expectancy at the age of 20 years has increased from 9.1 years (+/- 2.3 years) in 1993-1995 to 23.6 years (+/- 4.4 years) in 2002-2004. Subjects in 1993-1995 were more likely to die than those who started therapy in 2002-2004 (hazard ratio 2.78; 95% CI 1.92-3.85). Patients who initiated dual therapy or therapies containing three or more antiretroviral drugs were, respectively, 1.49 (95% CI 1.23-1.82) and 2.56 (95% CI 2.13-3.13) times less likely to die than those who started on monotherapy.

CONCLUSION

A significant and progressive decrease in mortality and increase in life expectancy were observed over the 12-year study period. The increase in life expectancy and decrease in mortality were directly associated with the use of modern forms of HAART.

Evaluation of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1-Infected Chinese Patients Treated with Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy for Two Years

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the long-term efficacy and safety of nevirapine in combination with didanosine and stavudine in the treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)1-infected Chinese patients in routine clinical practice. The study, from April 2003 to May 2005, with follow-up through 24 mo, was conducted at the Department of Infectious Diseases, Second Xiangya Hospital, Central-South University in Changsha, Hunan Province, China. Twenty-seven HIV1-infected patients received didanosine, stavudine, and nevirapine. Information from case notes regarding age, sex, side effects, viral load, naive and memory T cells, and CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cell count at baseline, 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 mo was collected and analyzed. Virologic suppression, defined as an HIV RNA concentration of less than 50 copies/mL at months 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24, was considered the main outcome measure. Of 27 patients, 17 were men with a mean age 33.5 yr. The mean baseline viral load was 5.15 log copies/mL and the mean CD4(+) cell count was 185 cells/dL. Of 27 patients, 3 patients discontinued study medication; treatment was changed, because of side effects, from didanosine (ddI), stavudine (d4T), and nevirapine (NVP) to zidovudine, lamivudine, and NVP for 24 patients who had completed 24 mo of treatment with ddI, d4T, and NVP; and viral load suppression was attained in 17 patients (70.8%) at 12 mo, in 14 patients (58.3%) at 18 mo, and in 13 patients (56.6%) at 24 mo. The CD4 T cell count increased by 114 cells/microL (mean, 299 cells/microL) after 12 mo of treatment and by 132 cells/microL (mean, 317 cells/microL) after 24 mo of treatment. Naive T cells and memory cells also increased in number, but at a slower rate. Activated (CD38(+)) CD8(+) T cells were elevated at baseline (67.7%) and declined by month 24 (49.7%), but did not reach normal levels. We conclude that a regimen of NVP with ddI and d4T provided durable suppression of plasma viral load in HIV-infected patients, with significant improvement in the CD4 cell count, and can be well tolerated by patients with HIV-1 infection.

Semi-parametric accelerated failure time regression analysis with application to interval-censored HIV/AIDS data

This paper demonstrates a way to investigate a potentially non-linear relationship between an interval-censored response variable and a continuously distributed explanatory variable. A potentially non-linear effect of a continuous explanatory variable on the response is incorporated into an accelerated failure time model, forming a partial linear model. A sieve maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is suggested to simultaneously estimate all the parameters. The sieve MLE is shown to be asymptotically efficient and normally distributed. Simulation studies show that the proposed estimators for the scale and regression parameters are robust and efficient, and the estimator for the non-linear function is able to capture the shape of a variety of smooth non-linear functions. The model is applied to observational HIV data, where the response variable is the time to suppression of HIV viral load after initiation of antiretroviral therapy, and baseline viral load is investigated as a potentially non-linear effect.

Community outreach with weekly delivery of anti-retroviral drugs compared to cognitive-behavioural health care team-based approach to improve adherence among indigent women newly starting HAART

Sustained virological suppression requires adherence to >95% of doses of therapy. Overall there is paucity of data on adherence interventions among women and post-intervention outcomes. In this pilot study, we evaluated a novel strategy of weekly delivery of medications (Directly Delivered Therapy: DDT) for six months using an outreach worker (ORW), among ARV naïve indigent women starting HAART and compared the 'during intervention' and 'post-intervention' outcomes to the health care team (a nurse educator, a case worker, a pharmacist and social worker/drug addictions counsellor) based approach termed Adherence Coordination Services (ACS) and the Standard of Care (SoC) historical referent group. The baseline characteristics of the three groups were comparable. The proportion of women who achieved sustained virologic suppression in 4-8 month period for DDT; ACS and SoC groups were 86% (18/21); 54% (6/11); and 36% (8/22) (P<0.004); and in the 10-14 month period were 80% (12/15); 54% (6/11) and 45%(10/22) (P=0.036 for DDT vs. SoC). Retention rate in the DDT was 87%, and 92% of 307 ORW visits were kept, and post-intervention satisfaction was high. Short-term weekly delivery of medications using a community based liaison is a feasible, acceptable and a cost-effective strategy for improving both short-term and perhaps long-term adherence among women initiating their first HAART regimen.

Predictors of antiretroviral treatment failure in an urban HIV clinic

BACKGROUND

Predictors of antiretroviral treatment (ART) failure are not well characterized for heterogeneous clinic populations.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted of HIV-infected patients followed in an urban HIV clinic with an HIV RNA measurement < or =400 copies/mL on ART between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2004. The primary endpoint was treatment failure, defined as virologic failure (> or =1 HIV RNA measurement >400 copies/mL), unsanctioned stopping of ART, or loss to follow-up. Prior ART adherence and other baseline patient characteristics, determined at the time of the first suppressed HIV RNA load on or after January 1, 2003, were extracted from the electronic health record (EHR). Predictors of failure were assessed using proportional hazards modeling.

RESULTS

Of 829 patients in the clinic, 614 had at least 1 HIV RNA measurement < or =400 copies/mL during the study period. Of these, 167 (27.2%) experienced treatment failure. Baseline characteristics associated with treatment failure in the multivariate model were: poor adherence (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.44; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.34 to 5.05), absolute neutrophil count <1000/mm (HR = 2.90, 95% CI: 1.26 to 6.69), not suppressed on January 1, 2003 (HR = 2.69, 95% CI: 1.78 to 4.07) or <12 months of suppression (HR = 1.64, 95% CI: 1.10 to 2.45), CD4 count <200 cells/mm (HR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.31 to 2.76), nucleoside-only regimen (HR = 1.75, 95% CI: 1.08 to 2.82), prior virologic failure (HR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.22 to 2.39) and > or =1 missed visit in the prior year (HR = 1.56, 95% CI: 1.13 to 2.16).

CONCLUSIONS

More than one quarter of patients in a heterogeneous clinic population had treatment failure over a 2-year period. Prior ART adherence and other EHR data readily identify patient characteristics that could trigger specific interventions to improve ART outcomes.

CD4 count and viral load time-courses in patients treated with highly active antiretroviral therapy and association with the CDC staging system

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to analyse CD4 cell count and viral load dynamics in patients undergoing antiretroviral therapy and their association with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) classification system.

METHODS

CD4 cell count and viral load were determined in 2982 patients who were classified according to clinical and immunological CDC stages. Measurements were carried out at baseline and at the 3rd, 6th and 12th months.

RESULTS

Clear differences in the immunological and virological responses to therapy were observed depending on the CDC stage, with better results associated with less advanced stages. There was a marked parallelism in the CD4 cell count curves of the different CDC stages over the year of follow up, in both naïve and experienced patients, indicating that the increase in CD4 cell count at each time-point was similar for all clinical and immunological CDC stages. However, as the baseline values were closely associated with CDC stage, the CD4 cell counts finally reached were clearly dependent on CDC stage. The highest virological responses were observed during the initial 3 months, particularly in naïve patients, but whereas naïve patients showed additional increases up to the 6th month experienced patients reached a plateau at the 3rd month. The CD4 increases were also higher during the initial 3 months but persisted during the year of follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Both clinical and immunological CDC stages at baseline are highly predictive of the immunological and virological response to therapy, a finding that could have clinical implications.

HIV treatment response and prognosis in Europe and North America in the first decade of highly active antiretroviral therapy: a collaborative analysis

BACKGROUND

Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for the treatment of HIV infection was introduced a decade ago. We aimed to examine trends in the characteristics of patients starting HAART in Europe and North America, and their treatment response and short-term prognosis.

METHODS

We analysed data from 22,217 treatment-naive HIV-1-infected adults who had started HAART and were followed up in one of 12 cohort studies. The probability of reaching 500 or less HIV-1 RNA copies per mL by 6 months, and the change in CD4 cell counts, were analysed for patients starting HAART in 1995-96, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002-03. The primary endpoints were the hazard ratios for AIDS and for death from all causes in the first year of HAART, which were estimated using Cox regression.

RESULTS

The proportion of heterosexually infected patients increased from 20% in 1995-96 to 47% in 2002-03, and the proportion of women from 16% to 32%. The median CD4 cell count when starting HAART increased from 170 cells per muL in 1995-96 to 269 cells per muL in 1998 but then decreased to around 200 cells per muL. In 1995-96, 58% achieved HIV-1 RNA of 500 copies per mL or less by 6 months compared with 83% in 2002-03. Compared with 1998, adjusted hazard ratios for AIDS were 1.07 (95% CI 0.84-1.36) in 1995-96 and 1.35 (1.06-1.71) in 2002-03. Corresponding figures for death were 0.87 (0.56-1.36) and 0.96 (0.61-1.51).

INTERPRETATION

Virological response after starting HAART improved over calendar years, but such improvement has not translated into a decrease in mortality.

Mortality of HIV-1-infected patients in the first year of antiretroviral therapy: comparison between low-income and high-income countries

BACKGROUND

Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is being scaled up in developing countries. We compared baseline characteristics and outcomes during the first year of HAART between HIV-1-infected patients in low-income and high-income settings.

METHODS

18 HAART programmes in Africa, Asia, and South America (low-income settings) and 12 HIV cohort studies from Europe and North America (high-income settings) provided data for 4810 and 22,217, respectively, treatment-naïve adult patients starting HAART. All patients from high-income settings and 2725 (57%) patients from low-income settings were actively followed-up and included in survival analyses.

FINDINGS

Compared with high-income countries, patients starting HAART in low-income settings had lower CD4 cell counts (median 108 cells per muL vs 234 cells per muL), were more likely to be female (51%vs 25%), and more likely to start treatment with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) (70%vs 23%). At 6 months, the median number of CD4 cells gained (106 cells per muL vs 103 cells per muL) and the percentage of patients reaching HIV-1 RNA levels lower than 500 copies/mL (76%vs 77%) were similar. Mortality was higher in low-income settings (124 deaths during 2236 person-years of follow-up) than in high-income settings (414 deaths during 20,532 person-years). The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of mortality comparing low-income with high-income settings fell from 4.3 (95% CI 1.6-11.8) during the first month to 1.5 (0.7-3.0) during months 7-12. The provision of treatment free of charge in low-income settings was associated with lower mortality (adjusted HR 0.23; 95% CI 0.08-0.61).

INTERPRETATION

Patients starting HAART in resource-poor settings have increased mortality rates in the first months on therapy, compared with those in developed countries. Timely diagnosis and assessment of treatment eligibility, coupled with free provision of HAART, might reduce this excess mortality.

Longitudinal analysis of clinical markers following antiretroviral therapy initiated during acute or early HIV type 1 infection

BACKGROUND

Treatment of acute human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection may have unique immunologic, virological, and clinical benefits. However, the timing of treatment, optimal starting regimens, and expected response to therapy have not been defined.Methods. One hundred two subjects treated during acute and early HIV-1 infection were observed prospectively to determine the effect of time elapsed before initiation of therapy on time to virological suppression and absolute CD4+ cell count. Subjects were divided into pre- and postseroconversion groups on the basis of HIV-1 antibody status at the time of initiation of treatment. Absolute CD4+ cell counts were compared between these groups and with those of historical untreated persons who had experienced seroconversion. Potential predictors of time to virological suppression and CD4+ cell count at > or =12 months were assessed.

RESULTS

Ninety-nine (97%) of 102 subjects achieved virological suppression. The median time to suppression was 11.1 weeks (95% confidence interval, 9.4-14.9) and was independent of initial regimen. The mean CD4+ cell count at 12 months was 702 cells/mm3 (95% confidence interval, 654-750 cells/mm3) and showed an increasing trend over 60 months. Treated subjects demonstrated a statistically significant gain in the CD4+ cell count, compared with untreated historical control subjects, at > or =12 months. Comparable virological and immunologic outcomes were seen in the pre- and postseroconversion groups. Baseline virus load and nadir CD4+ cell count predicted time to virological suppression and CD4+ cell count at > or =12 months, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Early treatment of HIV-1 infection is well tolerated and results in rapid and sustained virological suppression. Preservation of CD4+ cell counts may be achieved with early therapy, independent of seroconversion status. Protease inhibitor-based and nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor-based regimens show comparable performance in tolerability, time to virological suppression, and CD4+ cell count when used as a first regimen.

Predictive factors of lopinavir/ritonavir discontinuation for drug-related toxicity: results from a cohort of 416 multi-experienced HIV-infected individuals

The objective of this study was to find predictive factors of lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) discontinuation for drug-related toxicities in highly pre-treated human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected subjects. The study was an observational study of HIV patients starting LPV/r with HIV RNA > 3log10 copies/mL and a follow-up > or = 6 months. Parameters studied were HIV RNA, CD4+ cell counts, metabolic parameters and drug-related adverse events. Acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) events and deaths were recorded. The Kaplan-Meier (KM) model was used to estimate time-dependent probability, and the multivariable Cox model to identify predictors of LPV/r discontinuation for adverse events. The study evaluated 416 HIV-infected patients. Seventy-seven patients (18.5%) discontinued LPV/r for toxicities. Adverse events leading to LPV/r discontinuation were gastrointestinal symptoms in 40 cases, hyperlipidaemia in 27 and increase of aspartate aminotransferase (AST)/alanine aminotransferase (ALT) in 10 patients. Nineteen patients (4.6%) developed an AIDS event during observation and 15 (3.6%) died. The KM probability of LPV/r discontinuation for toxicities was 5.3% (range 3.1-7.5%) at month 12 and 15.7% (range 12.1-19.3%) at month 24. Subjects with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-HIV co-infection (odds ratio (OR) 7.40; 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.73-14.66 versus HCV-negative; P = 0.001) and receiving LPV/r plus nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) and protease inhibitor (PI)/non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) (OR 1.74; 95% CI 1.04-2.91 versus LPV/r plus only NRTIs; P = 0.04) showed a higher risk of LPV/r discontinuation by a Cox analysis, whereas non-intravenous drug abusers (IVDUs) (OR 0.40; 95% CI 0.24-0.67 versus IVDUs; P = 0.001) had a lower risk. The rate of discontinuation for toxicity decreased by 17% for each additional month of LPV/r exposure (OR 0.83; 95% CI 0.80-0.86 for each additional month; P < 0.001). LPV/r was substantially well tolerated. Diarrhoea was the most frequent adverse event leading to discontinuation. HCV-HIV co-infected patients and patients with a short exposure to LPV/r have a higher risk of discontinuing LPV/r and should be strictly monitored.

Evolution of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 protease genotypes and phenotypes in vivo under selective pressure of the protease inhibitor ritonavir

We examined the population dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 pro variants during the evolution of resistance to the protease inhibitor ritonavir (RTV) in vivo. pro variants were followed in subjects who had added RTV to their previously failed reverse transcriptase inhibitor therapy using a heteroduplex tracking assay designed to detect common resistance-associated mutations. In most cases the initial variant appeared rapidly within 2 to 3 months followed by one or more subsequent population turnovers. Some of the subsequent transitions between variants were rapid, and some were prolonged with the coexistence of multiple variants. In several cases variants without resistance mutations persisted despite the emergence of new variants with an increasing number of resistance-associated mutations. Based on the rate of turnover of pro variants in the RTV-treated subjects we estimated that the mean fitness of newly emerging variants was increased 1.2-fold (range, 1.02 to 1.8) relative to their predecessors. A subset of pro genes was introduced into infectious molecular clones. The corresponding viruses displayed impaired replication capacity and reduced susceptibility to RTV. A subset of these clones also showed increased susceptibility to two nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and the protease inhibitor saquinavir. Finally, a significant correlation between the reduced replication capacity and reduced processing at the gag NC-p1 processing site was noted. Our results reveal a complexity of patterns in the evolution of resistance to a protease inhibitor. In addition, these results suggest that selection for resistance to one protease inhibitor can have pleiotropic effects that can affect fitness and susceptibility to other drugs.

Induction With Abacavir/Lamivudine/Zidovudine Plus Efavirenz for 48 Weeks Followed by 48-Week Maintenance With Abacavir/Lamivudine/Zidovudine Alone in Antiretroviral-Naive HIV-1-Infected Patients

BACKGROUND

The ESS40013 study tested 4-drug induction followed by 3-drug maintenance as initial antiretroviral therapy (ART) to reduce HIV RNA rapidly and then to simplify to an effective yet more convenient and tolerable regimen.

METHODS

Four hundred forty-eight antiretroviral-naive adults were treated with abacavir/lamivudine/zidovudine (ABC/3TC/ZDV) and efavirenz (EFV) for the 48-week induction phase. Two hundred eighty-two patients were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to continue ABC/3TC/ZDV+EFV or to simplify to ABC/3TC/ZDV for the 48-week maintenance phase.

RESULTS

The baseline median HIV RNA level and CD4 cell count were 5.08 log10 copies/mL (56%>or=100,000 copies/mL) and 210 cells/mm (48% <200 cells/mm), respectively. No significant differences were noted between ABC/3TC/ZDV+EFV and ABC/3TC/ZDV for an HIV RNA level <50 copies/mL (79% vs. 77% [intent to treat (ITT), missing=failure]; P=0.697) or time to treatment failure (P=0.75) at week 96. Drug-related adverse events were more commonly reported for ABC/3TC/ZDV+EFV than for ABC/3TC/ZDV (15% vs. 6%). Improvements in total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides were observed in the ABC/3TC/ZDV group. Virologic failure occurred in 22 patients during induction and in 24 patients (16 in ABC/3TC/ZDV group and 8 in ABC/3TC/ZDV+EFV group; P=0.134) during maintenance. A greater proportion of patients receiving ABC/3TC/ZDV than ABC/3TC/ZDV+EFV reported perfect adherence at week 96 (88.8% vs. 79.6%; P=0.057).

CONCLUSIONS

After induction with ABC/3TC/ZDV+EFV, simplification to ABC/3TC/ZDV alone maintained virologic control and immunologic response, reduced fasting lipids and ART-associated adverse events, and improved adherence.

Cost-effectiveness of screening for HIV in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND

The costs, benefits, and cost-effectiveness of screening for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in health care settings during the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) have not been determined.

METHODS

We developed a Markov model of costs, quality of life, and survival associated with an HIV-screening program as compared with current practice. In both strategies, symptomatic patients were identified through symptom-based case finding. Identified patients started treatment when their CD4 count dropped to 350 cells per cubic millimeter. Disease progression was defined on the basis of CD4 levels and viral load. The likelihood of sexual transmission was based on viral load, knowledge of HIV status, and efficacy of counseling.

RESULTS

Given a 1 percent prevalence of unidentified HIV infection, screening increased life expectancy by 5.48 days, or 4.70 quality-adjusted days, at an estimated cost of 194 dollars per screened patient, for a cost-effectiveness ratio of 15,078 dollars per quality-adjusted life-year. Screening cost less than 50,000 dollars per quality-adjusted life-year if the prevalence of unidentified HIV infection exceeded 0.05 percent. Excluding HIV transmission, the cost-effectiveness of screening was 41,736 dollars per quality-adjusted life-year. Screening every five years, as compared with a one-time screening program, cost 57,138 dollars per quality-adjusted life-year, but was more attractive in settings with a high incidence of infection. Our results were sensitive to the efficacy of behavior modification, the benefit of early identification and therapy, and the prevalence and incidence of HIV infection.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost-effectiveness of routine HIV screening in health care settings, even in relatively low-prevalence populations, is similar to that of commonly accepted interventions, and such programs should be expanded.

Clinical, immunological and virological evolution in patients with CD4 T-cell count above 500/mm3: is there a benefit to treat with highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART)?

To assess the clinical, immunological and virological evolution in HIV-1 infected patients with CD4 T-cell count above 500/mm3, a historical cohort of 202 untreated and 96 patients treated with HAART was longitudinally studied (median follow-up 36 months). Fourteen untreated and 2 treated patients experienced clinical progression (p = 0.09). The difference between baseline CD4 T-cell count and after 3 years, was -240/mm3 in the untreated group +19/mm3 in the HAART group (p < 10(-3)). A better immunological outcome was significantly associated with a HIV sexual contamination (p = 0.01), HAART (p = 0.01), high baseline CD4 T-cell count (p < 10(-3)) and low baseline HIV viral load (p = 0.01). In the HAART group, the incidence rate of antiretroviral modification due to tolerance difficulties was 0.23+/-0.36/patient year. A sustained undetectable HIV viral load was correlated with a low baseline HIV viral load (p = 0.003) and to be antiretroviral naive (p < 10(-3)). Thus, HAART provide a better immunological outcome in patients with high CD4 T-cell count. However, the CD4 decay slope after 3 years, the risk of therapeutic side-effects and the low risk of clinical progression do not support systematic treatment of those patients.

Positive virological outcome after lopinavir/ritonavir salvage therapy in protease inhibitor-experienced HIV-1-infected children: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Lopinavir/ritonavir has demonstrated antiviral activity in the HIV-infected patient.

OBJECTIVE

To analyse virological response to lopinavir/ritonavir therapy in previously protease inhibitor (PI)-experienced HIV-1-infected children.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Sixty-seven HIV-1-children on lopinavir/ritonavir were studied in a multicentre prospective cohort observational study. The outcome variables were undetectable viral load (uVL; VL < or =400 copies/mL) and virological failure after uVL with a rebound of VL >400 copies/mL. VL and genotype of HIV-1-isolates were measured using standard assays.

RESULTS

83.5% of children had a 1 log10 VL decrease including 65.6% who reached uVL. Children with >2 changes of antiretroviral therapy (ART) or >5 drugs needed a median time of 3-4 months higher than children with < or =2 changes of ART or < or =5 drugs previous to lopinavir/ritonavir, to reach those values, and the relative proportions (RP) were 2.2 (P =0.038) and 1.9 (P=0.050), respectively. Children with CD4+>15% (P=0.122), VL < or =30,000 (P < 0.001) copies/mL, and age >12 years (P=0.096) achieved an earlier control of VL during the follow-up. The children with virological failure or rebound of VL had higher baseline VL and lower CD4+ T-lymphocytes/mm3 and had taken a greater number of drugs previous to lopinavir/ritonavir. HIV-children with a new nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI), or protease inhibitor (PI) or PI plus non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) in the current regimen had a better virological response than children without these new drugs. Also, children with <6 protease mutations had an RP of 2.31 of achieving uVL.

CONCLUSIONS

Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) including lopinavir/ritonavir induces beneficial effects in terms of virological outcome responses, and it is an effective option for salvage therapy in PI-experienced HIV-1-infected children.

Salvage lopinavir-ritonavir therapy in human immunodeficiency virus-infected children

OBJECTIVE

To study the control of viral replication in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children on different salvage therapies.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A retrospective observational study in 120 HIV-infected children was conducted. The children were divided into 3 groups according to their salvage therapies: (1) children receiving first line highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART); (2) protease inhibitor-experienced children receiving second line HAART; (3) protease inhibitor-experienced children receiving HAART including lopinavir-ritonavir (LPV/r). The outcome variables examined were time to achieve viral load (VL) < or =400 copies/mL, success in achieving VL < or =400 copies/mL and time to virologic failure (VL >400 copies/mL).

METHODS

VL (HIV-RNA copies/mL) was quantified with reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction molecular assay. For each protocol, survival analyses were conducted to determine the probability of achieving VL < or =400 copies/mL and rebound of VL.

RESULTS

VL < or =400 copies/mL was achieved by 52.4% of children receiving first line HAART, 48.3% receiving second line HAART and 71.5% receiving HAART including LPV/r. Children receiving HAART including LPV/r reached VL < or =400 copies/mL in a shorter time than children receiving second line HAART (P = 0.017), but quite similar to children receiving first line HAART. In terms of adjusted relative risk, children receiving HAART including LPV/r were 3.36 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.59, 7.07] more likely to achieve VL < or =400 copies/mL than children receiving a different second line HAART. VL rebound occurred in 68.2% children receiving first line HAART, 73.4% receiving second line HAART and 32.4% receiving HAART including LPV/r. Children receiving HAART that includes LPV/r has less incidence of VL rebound (P=0.013) and 3.29 (95% CI 1.04, 10.3) times less risk to achieve a VL rebound than children receiving a different second line HAART.

CONCLUSIONS

HAART that includes LPV/r is able to control HIV replication more efficiently than other classic salvage antiretroviral therapies.

Determinants of sustained virological suppression in indigent, HIV-infected patients: is single protease inhibitor-based antiretroviral therapy truly highly active?

BACKGROUND

Effective virological suppression with HAART is dependent on strict adherence to therapy. Compliance with therapy is influenced by clinical and psychosocial factors.

METHOD

We performed a retrospective study investigating determinants of effective virological suppression, defined as <400 RNA at 11-13 months of HAART, in an urban indigent population. The study included 366 new patients presenting for care to the Thomas Street Clinic, Houston, Texas, between April and December 1998. Median age, CD4 count, and viral load (VL) of the study population were 37.5 years, 189 cells/mm(3), and 53,000, respectively. Thirty-nine percent had AIDS, 20% had cocaine-positive drug screens, and 64% were antiretroviral naïve. Two hundred and sixty-seven patients were started on HAART. Thirty-four percent showed virological suppression.

RESULTS

In multivariate analysis, adherence to HAART, care by experienced primary provider, baseline VL <100,000 copies/mL, age >35 years, and no active substance use were associated with virological suppression. Rates of virological suppression with HAART are unacceptably low in this urban indigent population.

CONCLUSION

Low rates of virological suppression are primarily due to lack of adherence rather than late utilization of care among ethnic minorities. Single protease-inhibitor-based antiretroviral therapy does not appear to be highly active in this patient population.

Preventing and managing antiretroviral drug resistance

Development of resistance to antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) is a major impediment to optimum treatment of HIV-1 infection. Although resistance testing can help to select subsequent regimens when virologic failure occurs, cross-resistance, which affects all classes of ARVs, may make it more difficult to achieve optimum control of HIV. We have known for some time that our first choice of antiretroviral therapy offers the best chance to control HIV replication and that initial therapy should be selected with an eye on future options. Potency is the first line of defense against the development of resistance. Other factors that affect resistance development include: tolerability, potential for optimum adherence, and genetic and pharmacologic barriers to development of resistance. If resistance emerges, only a single drug may be affected initially, and a rapid change in ARVs may preserve the efficacy of other components. One cautionary note is that we can no longer assume that a patient's HIV is fully susceptible to all ARVs even in the initial regimen. Transmission of drug-resistant HIV means that the genetic composition may be that of an "experienced" virus with reduced susceptibility to ARVs. Resistance testing at the time of transmission is most likely to reveal this resistance, but over time the dominant genetic pattern may revert to wild-type, and be missed by resistance testing. Because "archived" resistant HIV may emerge quickly once treatment is initiated, we need to keep this in mind when selecting initial therapy.

Knowledge of HIV Postexposure Prophylaxis in a Population of HIV-Positive Outpatients: Results of a French National Survey

Since 1998, French HIV guidelines have recommended use of HIV prophylaxis after unprotected sex (postexposure prophylaxis, or PEP) with an HIV-positive partner. To characterize factors associated with lack of PEP knowledge in an HIV-positive population, a cross-sectional survey was conducted of 737 French HIV-positive outpatients followed in AIDS care units of 2 regions accounting for 60% of French AIDS cases. Information was collected through face-to-face interviews. The sample was weighted to improve national validity. Median age was 41 years, 73.2% of patients were male, and 8.5% reported HIV-related risk behaviors. Those who knew about PEP and those who did not were compared with chi2 tests and logistic regression. One third of the sample had never heard of PEP. In multivariate analysis, lack of PEP knowledge was associated with older age, low educational level, unstable housing, unawareness of current HIV laboratory data, and lack of ability to confide in nurse and to seek out information from various sources. The increased number of people living with HIV infection as a chronic disease raises new challenges for its secondary prevention. Preventive programs aimed at HIV-positive individuals and their sexual partners are strongly needed.

Long-Term Virological Response to Multiple Sequential Regimens of Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy for HIV Infection

Objective

Information about the virological response to sequential highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for HIV infection is limited. The virological response to four consecutive therapies was evaluated in the Swiss HIV Cohort.

Design

Retrospective analysis in an observational cohort.

Methods

1140 individuals receiving uninterrupted HAART for 4.8 ±0.6 years were included. The virological response was classified as success (<400 copies/ml), low-level (LF: 400–5000 copies/ml) or high-level failure (HF: >5000 copies/ml). Potential determinants of the virological response, including patient demographics, treatment history and virological response to previous HAART regimens were analysed using survival and logistic regression analyses.

Results

40.1% failed virologically on the first (22.0% LF; 18.1% HF), 35.1% on the second (14.2% LF; 20.9% HF), 34.2% on the third (9.9% LF; 24.3% HF) and 32.7% on the fourth HAART regimen (9% LF; 23.7% HF). Nucleoside pre-treatment (OR: 2.34; 95% CI: 1.67–3.29) and low baseline CD4 T-cell count (OR: 0.79/100 cells rise; 95% CI: 0.72–0.88) increased the risk of HF on the first HAART. Virological failure on HAART with HIV-1 RNA levels exceeding 1000 copies/ml predicted a poor virological response to subsequent HAART regimens. A switch from a protease inhibitor- to a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-containing regimen significantly reduced the risk of HF. Multiple switches of HAART did not affect the recovery of CD4 T lymphocytes.

Conclusion

Multiple sequential HAART regimens do not per se reduce the likelihood of long-term virological suppression and immunological recovery. However, early virological failure increases significantly the risk of subsequent unfavourable virological responses. The choice of a potent initial antiretroviral drug regimen is therefore critical. This study has been presented in part at the 10th Conference on Retroviruses & Opportunistic Infections. Boston, Mass., USA, 2003. Abstract #571.