Admission serum glucose level: an accurate predictor of outcome in gallstone pancreatitis

Predictive value of hyperglycemia on infection in critically ill patients with acute pancreatitis

To analyze the predictive value of hyperglycemia on the extrapancreatic infection (EPI) and infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) of severe patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). We enrolled 234 patients with acute pancreatitis admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from July 2017 to July 2022 for a retrospective cohort study. We collected maximum blood glucose values three times after admission to the ICU within 120 h (Glu1: 0-24 h, Glu2: 24-48 h, Glu3: 48-120 h), the levels of leucocyte, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), and albumin within 24 h after admission to the ICU, and the BISAP and SIRS scores of all patients within 24 h. EPI was taken as the primary outcome indicator and IPN as the secondary outcome indicator. The accuracy of blood glucose values in predicting acute pancreatitis infection was measured by the area under the curve (AUC). A total of 56 patients appeared EPI. Univariate analysis showed that Glu3 was associated with IPN in critically ill patients with AP. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that Glu2, Glu3, and SIRS > 48 h were associated with EPI in critically ill patients with AP. The AUCs of Glu2 and Glu3 to predict EPI were 0.805(95%CI: 0.717-0.892) and 0.782(95%CI: 0.685-0.878), respectively, and the cutoff values were 12.60 mmol/L and 14.75 mmol/L, respectively. The AUC of Glu2 combined with Glu3 to predict EPI was 0.812(0.725-0.899). The maximum blood glucose on Day2-5 after admission to the ICU can predict infection in critically ill patients with AP. There are differences in etiology while glucose predicting infection. Patients with hypertriglyceridemia AP need to intervene blood glucose levels more actively and earlier, and control it more strictly.

Relationship between blood glucose levels and length of hospital stay in patients with acute pancreatitis: An analysis of MIMIC-III database

We aimed to investigate the effect of blood glucose levels on length of stay (LOS) in patients hospitalized with acute pancreatitis (AP). We retrospectively collected clinical data of patients diagnosed with AP from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database. Dose-response analysis curves of restricted cubic spline (RCS) function and multivariate logistic regression models were used to confirm the relationship between blood glucose levels and LOS. A total of 3656 patients with AP were included according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria. According to RCS, all patients were divided into three groups, namely the less than 68 mg/dl group, the 68-104 mg/dl group, and the >104 mg/dl group. RCS showed a significant nonlinear correlation between blood glucose levels and LOS (p < 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression revealed a 53% higher risk of LOS greater than or equal to 2 days (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.24-1.89, p < 0.001), a 114% higher risk of LOS greater than or equal to 5 days (aOR = 2.14, 95% CI 1.86-2.47, p < 0.001), and a 130% higher risk of LOS greater than or equal to 7 days (aOR = 2.30, 95% CI 1.97-2.69, p < 0.001) in patients with glucose levels greater than 104 mg/dl than patients with glucose levels 68-104 mg/dl. The risk of LOS greater than or equal to 7 days was higher in patients with blood glucose less than 68 mg/dl than patients with glucose levels 68-104 mg/dl (aOR = 1.45, 95% CI 1.02-2.05, p = 0.040). In addition, we observed similar results in many subgroups. Our findings suggest that either hyperglycemia or hypoglycemia increase LOS in patients hospitalized with AP. For hospitalized patients with AP, blood glucose control in a reasonable range of 68-104 mg/dl is required.

Prognostic Value of Glucose-to-Lymphocyte Ratio in Critically Ill Patients with Acute Pancreatitis

Background

Glucose metabolism and systemic inflammation have been associated with prognosis in acute pancreatitis (AP) patients. However, the possible value as a prognostic marker of the glucose-to-lymphocyte ratio (GLR) has not been evaluated in critically ill patients with AP.

Methods

This study included 1,133 critically ill patients with AP from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) database, who were randomly divided into the training cohort (n=806) and the validation cohort (n=327) at a ratio of 7:3. X-tile software was used to determine the optimal cut-off values for GLR. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis was performed to compare the performance between GLR and other blood-based inflammatory biomarkers. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were applied to select prognostic factors associated with in-hospital mortality. A nomogram model was developed based on the identified prognostic factors and the validation cohort was used to further validate the nomogram.

Results

The optimal cut-off value for GLR was 0.9. The ROC analyses showed that the discrimination abilities of GLR were better than other blood-based inflammatory biomarkers. Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that age, platelet, albumin, bilirubin, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, and GLR are independent predictors of poor overall survival in the training cohort and were incorporated into the nomogram for in-hospital mortality as independent factors. The nomogram exhibited better discrimination with C-indexes in the training cohort and the validation cohort of 0.886 (95% CI=0.849–0.922) and 0.841 (95% CI=0.767–0.915), respectively. The calibration plot revealed an adequate fit of the nomogram for predicting the risk of in-hospital mortality in both sets.

Conclusion

As an easily available biomarker, GLR can independently predict the in-hospital mortality of critically ill patients with AP. The nomogram combining GLR with other significant features exerted favorable predictive performance for in-hospital mortality.

Recent Advances in Diagnosis and Severity Assessment of Acute Pancreatitis

The incidence and prevalence of acute pancreatitis (AP) is increasing over time. The diagnosis of acute pancreatitis is established by revised Atlanta criteria (2012). Multiple criteria and scoring systems have been used for assessment of severity of AP. Majority of acute pancreatitis cases (80%) are mild, the challenge remains in early diagnosis, severity assessment and treatment of severe AP and its complications. Assessment of severity of AP is important part of management because line of treatment depends on aetiology and severity of acute pancreatitis. In this article a comprehensive review of recent advances in diagnosis and severity assessment of acute pancreatitis has been described.

Clinical utility of fibrin-related biomarkers in human acute pancreatitis

AIM

To investigate whether the four fibrin-related markers (FRMs) fibrin monomer (FM), D-dimer (D-D), fibrinogen (FIB), and fibrin degradation products (FDP) reflect the extent of coagulation activation in vivo and to assess the predictive value of the FRMs in determining persistent organ failure (POF) and pancreatic necrosis (PN) in acute pancreatitis (AP) patients.

METHODS

One hundred and fifty-two AP patients were included in this prospective observational study. The final outcome was disease severity assessed by presence of POF and PN. The levels of the four FRMs were measured on days 1, 2, 3, and 7 after admission. ROC curves were used to compare the sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of FM, D-D, and FDP in predicting POF and PN with those of regular biochemical markers C-reaction protein (CRP) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH).

RESULTS

Of the 152 patients included, 32 had POF and 44 had PN. There was no significant difference in serum FM levels between AP with POF and AP without POF at the first week after admission. Patients with PN had significantly higher FM than those without PN on day 1 (P = 0.043), day 2 (P = 0.008), day 3 (P = 0.001), and day 7 (P = 0.002) after admission. D-D was significantly higher in patients with POF than in those without on day 1 (P = 0.001), day 2 (P = 0.004), day 3 (P = 0.000), and day 7 (P = 0.002). Patients with PN had significantly higher D-D on day 1 (P = 0.023), day 2 (P = 0.045), day 3 (P = 0.000), and day 7 (P = 0.000) after admission. FDP was significantly higher in patients with POF than in those without on day 1 (P = 0.000), day 2 (P = 0.000), day 3 (P = 0.000), and day 7 (P = 0.000). Patients with PN had signficantly higher FDP on day 2 (P = 0.021), day 3 (P = 0.000), and day 7 (P = 0.000) after admission. FIB did not differ significantly between AP patients with POF and those without, or between AP patients with PN and those without. ROC analysis revealed that D-D (AUC = 0.693) and FDP (AUC = 0.711) were superior to CRP (AUC = 0.615) and LDH (AUC = 0.672) in predicting POF on day 1 of hospital admission, and D-D (AUC = 0.832) and FDP (AUC = 0.814) were superior than LDH (AUC = 0.639) and CRP (AUC = 0.706) in predicting PN on day 3 of hospital admission.

CONCLUSION

Plasma FRMs in AP patients increase significantly on the first week after admission. FDP and D-D correlate with disease severity of AP and can be considered as a potentially useful tool for the early diagnosis of AP with POF and PN.

Risk Factors for Worsening of Acute Pancreatitis in Patients Admitted with Mild Acute Pancreatitis

Background

The aim of the present study was to investigate risk factors for developing more severe pancreatitis, including moderately severe (MSAP) and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), in patients admitted with mild acute pancreatitis (MAP).

Material/Methods

Patients admitted with MAP to our hospital from March 2013 to May 2016 were included and prospectively evaluated. Possible risk factors for developing MSAP or SAP were age, blood glucose level on admission, etiology, sex, Ranson score, amylase level, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) scores, C-reactive protein (CRP) level, serum calcium level, visceral fat area (VFA), body mass index (BMI), whether this was the first episode of AP, and method of administration of octreotide. The effects of variables for developing MSAP or SAP were evaluated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression models. Mortality, hospital duration, and rate of ICU transfer of patients were compared between patients who developed MSAP or SAP and patients who did not.

Results

A total of 602 patients admitted with MAP were recruited into this study (256 men and 346 women). Seventy-four patients (12.3%) developed MSAP or SAP. According to univariate logistic regression analyses, the results indicated that there were 5 significant differences between patients who developed MSAP or SAP and those who did not: VFA (>100 cm²) (p=0.003), BMI (≥25 kg/m²) (p=0.001), Ranson score(p=0.004), APACHE-II (≥5) (p=0.001), and blood glucose level on admission (>11.1 mmol/L) (p=0.040). Further multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that BMI (≥25 kg/m²) (p=0.005), APACHE-II (≥5) (p=0.001), and blood glucose level on admission (>11.1 mmol/L) (p=0.004) were independent risk factors for developing MSAP or SAP in patients admitted with MAP. Moreover, patients who developed MSAP or SAP had a mortality rate of 5.4%.

Conclusions

Significant risk factors for developing MSAP or SAP in patients admitted with MAP included BMI (≥25 kg/m²), APACHE-II (≥5), and blood glucose level on admission (>11.1 mmol/L). These factors should be used in the prediction of more severe pancreatitis in patients admitted with MAP.

Risk Factors of Hyperglycemia in Patients After a First Episode of Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Cohort

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk factors for hyperglycemia development after a first episode of acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

Three hundred and ten patients treated for AP were retrospectively evaluated. Hyperglycemia was determined by fasting blood glucose. All data were collected from the medical records room database and a follow-up telephone call.

RESULTS

The incidence rate of hyperglycemia was obviously increased 5 years after the event. Hazard ratios (HRs) of developing hyperglycemia in patients with hyperlipidemia, fatty liver, and hypertension were 2.52 (P < 0.001), 1.87 (P = 0.01), and 1.78 (P = 0.017), respectively. Patients of biliary origin that underwent endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography presented a 4.62-fold greater risk than those managed conservatively. Other risk factors were random blood glucose greater than 8.33 mmol/L (HR, 4.19; P < 0.001), lactate dehydrogenase greater than 350 U/L (HR, 1.99; P = 0.017), calcium less than 1.75 mmol/L (HR, 3.86; P = 0.004), and elevated creatine kinase (HR, 2.74; P = 0.001). Patients with AB blood type showed 2.92-fold greater risk compared with those with O blood type. Among them, hyperlipidemia and hyperglycemia on admission were the only independent risk factors (both P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Hyperlipidemia, fatty liver, hypertension, endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography treatment, acute hyperglycemia, elevated lactate dehydrogenase and creatine kinase, decreased calcium, and AB blood type were risk factors for hyperglycemia development after AP.

Early Predictors of Fluid Sequestration in Acute Pancreatitis: A Validation Study

OBJECTIVES

The primary aim of this retrospective study was to externally validate predictors of increased fluid sequestration at 48 hours (FS⁴⁸) in acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

Patients admitted between January 10 and February 13 with a diagnosis of AP were evaluated. The FS⁴⁸ was calculated as difference between total fluid input and output in the first 48 hours. Predictors of FS⁴⁸, such as young age, alcoholic etiology, hemoconcentration, hyperglycemia, and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), and outcomes in AP, such as increased length of stay, acute fluid collection(s), necrosis, and persistent organ failure (POF), were defined in accordance with the previous study. Linear regression analysis was performed to evaluate the association between predictors and outcome.

RESULTS

Two hundred twenty-seven AP patients (mean age, 48 years; 54% men) with a median FS⁴⁸ of 4.2 L were evaluated. Age younger than 40 years, alcoholic etiology, hemoconcentration, and SIRS independently predicted increased FS⁴⁸ (P < 0.05). Increased FS⁴⁸ was associated with persistent SIRS and POF (P < 0.01). There was a significant trend between number of predictors and FS (P < 0.001). The presence of 4 predictors or more was associated with higher rates of persistent SIRS and POF (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study validated 4 of 5 predictors of increased FS⁴⁸ from the previous study. Presence of 4 predictors or more and increased FS⁴⁸ are both associated with persistent SIRS and POF.

Prediction of Severe Acute Pancreatitis Using a Decision Tree Model Based on the Revised Atlanta Classification of Acute Pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE

To develop a model for the early prediction of severe acute pancreatitis based on the revised Atlanta classification of acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

Clinical data of 1308 patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) were included in the retrospective study. A total of 603 patients who were admitted to the hospital within 36 hours of the onset of the disease were included at last according to the inclusion criteria. The clinical data were collected within 12 hours after admission. All the patients were classified as having mild acute pancreatitis (MAP), moderately severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP) and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) based on the revised Atlanta classification of acute pancreatitis. All the 603 patients were randomly divided into training group (402 cases) and test group (201 cases). Univariate and multiple regression analyses were used to identify the independent risk factors for the development of SAP in the training group. Then the prediction model was constructed using the decision tree method, and this model was applied to the test group to evaluate its validity.

RESULTS

The decision tree model was developed using creatinine, lactate dehydrogenase, and oxygenation index to predict SAP. The diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of SAP in the training group were 80.9% and 90.0%, respectively, and the sensitivity and specificity in the test group were 88.6% and 90.4%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The decision tree model based on creatinine, lactate dehydrogenase, and oxygenation index is more likely to predict the occurrence of SAP.

Diabetes increases pancreatic fibrosis during chronic inflammation

Diabetes and fibrosis can be concurrent processes in several diseases such as cystic fibrosis or chronic pancreatitis. To evaluate whether diabetes can influence fibrosis and thus aggravate the pathological process, the progression of chronic pancreatitis was assessed in diabetic and non diabetic mice. For this purpose, insulin producing beta-cells in C57Bl/6J mice were selectively impaired by administration of streptozotocin. Chronic pancreatitis was then induced by repetitive administration of cerulein in normoglycaemic and hyperglycaemic mice. Diabetes caused enhanced collagen I deposition within three weeks of the onset of chronic pancreatitis and increased the proliferation of interstitial cells. This was accompanied by an increased number of interlobular fibroblasts, which expressed S100A4 (fibroblast-specific protein-1) and stimulation of α-smooth muscle actin expression of pancreatic stellate cells. In addition, the observed aggravation of chronic pancreatitis by diabetes also led to a significantly enhanced atrophy of the pancreas, increased infiltration of inflammatory chloracetate esterase positive cells and enhanced acinar cell death. We conclude that diabetes has a detrimental influence on the progression of chronic pancreatitis by aggravating fibrosis, inflammation and pancreatic atrophy.

Diabetes increases pancreatitis induced systemic inflammation but has little effect on inflammation and cell death in the lung

Acute pancreatitis (AP) can lead to a systemic inflammatory response that often results in acute lung injury and single or multiple organ failure. In a previous study we demonstrated that diabetes aggravates the local pathophysiological process during AP. In this study we explore, if diabetes also increases pancreatitis induced systemic inflammation and causes lung injury. Acute pancreatitis was induced in untreated and streptozotocin-treated diabetic mice by injection of cerulein. Systemic inflammation was studied by IL-6 ELISA in blood plasma and white blood cell count. Lung inflammation and lung injury were quantified by chloroacetate esterase staining, evaluation of the alveolar cellularity index and cleaved caspase-3 immunohistochemistry. In normoglycaemic mice AP increased the IL-6 concentration in plasma and caused lymphocytopenia. Diabetes significantly increased the IL-6 concentration in plasma and further reduced the number of lymphocytes during AP, whereas diabetes had little effect on these parameters in the absence of pancreatitis. However, diabetes only marginally increased lung inflammation and did not lead to cell death of the lung epithelium during AP. We conclude that diabetes increases parameters of systemic inflammation during AP, but that this increase is insufficient to cause lung injury.

Early phase of acute pancreatitis: Assessment and management

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a potentially life-threatening disease with a wide spectrum of severity. The overall mortality of AP is approximately 5%. According to the revised Atlanta classification system, AP can be classified as mild, moderate, or severe. Severe AP often takes a clinical course with two phases, an early and a late phase, which should both be considered separately. In this review article, we first discuss general aspects of AP, including incidence, pathophysiology, etiology, and grading of severity, then focus on the assessment of patients with suspected AP, including diagnosis and risk stratification, followed by the management of AP during the early phase, with special emphasis on fluid therapy, pain management, nutrition, and antibiotic prophylaxis.

A prospective study of the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score in acute pancreatitis: an Indian perspective

INTRODUCTION

A simple and easily applicable system for stratifying patients with acute pancreatitis is lacking. The aim of our study was to evaluate the ability of BISAP score to predict mortality in acute pancreatitis patients from our institution and to predict which patients are at risk for development of organ failure, persistent organ failure and pancreatic necrosis.

METHODS

All patients with acute pancreatitis were included in the study. BISAP score was calculated within 24 h of admission. A Contrast CT was used to differentiate interstitial from necrotizing pancreatitis within seven days of hospitalization whereas Marshall Scoring System was used to characterize organ failure.

RESULTS

Among 246 patients M:F = 153:93, most common aetiology among men was alcoholism and among women was gallstone disease. 207 patients had no organ failure and remaining 39 developed organ failure. 17 patients had persistent organ failure, 16 of those with BISAP score ≥3. 13 patients in our study died, out of which 12 patients had BISAP score ≥3. We also found that a BISAP score of ≥3 had a sensitivity of 92%, specificity of 76%, a positive predictive value of 17%, and a negative predictive value of 99% for mortality.

DISCUSSION

The BISAP score is a simple and accurate method for the early identification of patients at increased risk for in hospital mortality and morbidity.

Early factors associated with fluid sequestration and outcomes of patients with acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Predicting level of fluid sequestration could help identify patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) who need more or less aggressive fluid resuscitation. We investigated factors associated with level of fluid sequestration in the first 48 hours after hospital admission in patients with AP and effects on outcome.

METHODS

We analyzed data from consecutive adult patients with AP admitted to the Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston, Massachusetts, from June 2005 to December 2007 (n = 266) or the Alicante University General Hospital in Spain from September 2010 to December 2012 (n = 137). Level of fluid sequestration in the first 48 hours after hospital admission was calculated by subtracting the total amount of fluid administered and lost in the first 48 hours of hospitalization. Demographic and clinical variables obtained in the emergency department were analyzed to identify factors associated with level of fluid sequestration in the first 48 hours after hospital admission. Outcome assessed included length of hospital stay, acute fluid collection(s), pancreatic necrosis, persistent organ failure, and mortality.

RESULTS

The median level of fluid sequestration in the first 48 hours after hospital admission was 3.2 L (1.4-5 L). The simple and multiple linear regression models showed that younger age, alcohol etiology, hematocrit, glucose, and systemic inflammatory response syndrome were significantly associated with increased levels of fluid sequestration in the first 48 hours after hospital admission. Increased level of fluid sequestration in the first 48 hours was significantly associated with longer hospital stays and higher rates of acute fluid collection, pancreatic necrosis, and persistent organ failure. There was a nonsignificant trend toward a higher level of fluid sequestration in the first 48 hours among patients who died.

CONCLUSION

Age, alcoholic etiology of AP, hematocrit, glucose, and presence of systemic inflammatory response syndrome in the emergency department were independent predictors of increased levels of fluid sequestration in the first 48 hours after hospital admission. These patients have higher risks of local and systemic complications and longer hospital stays.

Diabetes aggravates acute pancreatitis and inhibits pancreas regeneration in mice

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

It is well established that acute pancreatitis often causes diabetes and that a high blood glucose level associated with pancreatitis is a marker of poor prognosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate if diabetes merely reflects the severity of pancreatitis or whether it can also aggravate the progression of this disease in a vicious circle.

METHODS

Reversible acute oedematous pancreatitis was induced in untreated and streptozotocin-treated diabetic mice by injection of cerulein. Progression of pancreatitis was studied by immunohistochemistry, ELISA and various other enzyme assays. The production of regenerating islet-derived 3β (REG3β) was determined by western blot and immunohistochemistry.

RESULTS

While cerulein treatment in non-diabetic mice resulted in acute pancreatitis followed by regeneration of the pancreas within 7 days, diabetes aggravated pancreatitis, inhibited the regeneration of the exocrine tissue and led to strong atrophy of the pancreas. The aggravation of pancreatitis by diabetes was characterised by decreased production of the anti-inflammatory protein REG3β, increased inflammation, augmented oedema formation and increased cell death during the acute phase of pancreatitis (p < 0.05). During the regenerative phase, diabetes augmented inflammation, increased cell death, reduced acinar cell expansion and increased the expansion of duct as well as interstitial cells, resulting in the formation of tubular complexes (p < 0.05). Administration of insulin reversed the observed phenotype in diabetic mice.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Diabetes aggravates acute pancreatitis and suppresses regeneration of the exocrine tissue. Thus, diabetes is not just a concomitant phenomenon of pancreatitis, but can have a fundamental influence on the progression of acute pancreatitis.

Prediction of severe acute pancreatitis using classification and regression tree analysis

BACKGROUND

The available prognostic scoring systems for acute pancreatitis have limitations that restrict their clinical value.

AIMS

To develop a decision model based on classification and regression tree (CART) analysis for the prediction of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

METHODS

A total of 420 patients with acute pancreatitis were enrolled. Study participants were randomly assigned to the training sample and test sample in a 2:1 ratio. First, univariate analysis and logistic regression analysis were used to identify predictors associated with SAP in the training sample. Then, CART analysis was carried out to develop a simple tree model for the prediction of SAP. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed in order to assess the performance of the model. The prediction model was then applied to the test sample.

RESULTS

Four variables (systemic inflammatory response syndrome [SIRS], pleural effusion, serum calcium, and blood urea nitrogen [BUN]) were identified as important predictors of SAP by logistic regression analysis. A tree model (which consisted of pleural effusion, serum calcium, and BUN) that was developed by CART analysis was able to early identify among cohorts at high (79.03%) and low (7.80%) risk of developing SAP. The area under the ROC curve of the tree model was higher than that of the APACHE II score (0.84 vs. 0.68; P < 0.001). The predicted accuracy of the tree model was validated in the test sample with an area under the ROC curve of 0.86.

CONCLUSIONS

A decision tree model that consists of pleural effusion, serum calcium, and BUN may be useful for the prediction of SAP.

Prediction of mortality in acute pancreatitis: a systematic review of the published evidence

OBJECTIVE

In this review, we focus on studies that examined such prognostic indices in relation to predicting a fatal outcome from pancreatitis.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common emergency, and early identification of high-risk patients can be difficult. For this reason, a plethora of different prognostic variables and scoring systems have been assessed to see if they can reliably predict the severity of pancreatitis and/or subsequent mortality.

METHODS

All studies that focused on AP, including retrospective series and prospective trials, were retrieved and analysed for factors that could influence mortality. Articles that analysed factors influencing the severity of the disease or the manifestation of disease-related complications were excluded.

RESULTS

58 articles meeting the inclusion criteria were identified. Among the various factors investigated, APACHE II seemed to have the highest positive predictive value (69%). However, most prognostic variables and scores showed high negative predictive values but suboptimal values for positive predictive power.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the proliferation of scoring systems for grading AP, none are ideal for the prediction of mortality. With the exception of the APACHE II, the other scores and indexes do not have a high degree of sensitivity, specificity and predictive values.

A prospective evaluation of the bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis score in assessing mortality and intermediate markers of severity in acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to prospectively evaluate the ability of the bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) score to predict mortality as well as intermediate markers of severity in a tertiary center.

METHODS

The BISAP score was evaluated among 397 consecutive cases of acute pancreatitis admitted to our institution between June 2005 and December 2007. BISAP scores were calculated on all cases using data within 24 h of presentation. The ability of the BISAP score to predict mortality was evaluated using trend and discrimination analysis. The optimal cutoff score for mortality from the receiver operating curve was used to evaluate the development of organ failure, persistent organ failure, and pancreatic necrosis.

RESULTS

Among 397 cases, there were 14 (3.5%) deaths. There was a statistically significant trend for increasing mortality (P < 0.0001) with increasing BISAP score. The area under the receiver operating curve for mortality by BISAP score in the prospective cohort was 0.82 (95% confidence interval: 0.70, 0.95), which was similar to that of the previously published validation cohort. A BISAP score >or=3 was associated with an increased risk of developing organ failure (odds ratio=7.4, 95% confidence interval: 2.8, 19.5), persistent organ failure (odds ratio=12.7, 95% confidence interval: 4.7, 33.9), and pancreatic necrosis (odds ratio=3.8, 95% confidence interval: 1.8, 8.5).

CONCLUSIONS

The BISAP score represents a simple way to identify patients at risk of increased mortality and the development of intermediate markers of severity within 24 h of presentation. This risk stratification capability can be utilized to improve clinical care and facilitate enrollment in clinical trials.