Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2008 (MWDS-2008): assessment of internal dose from measurement results of plutonium activity in urine

Chronic bronchitis and bronchial asthma: the impact of chronic occupational radiation exposure on incidence and mortality of Mayak nuclear workers

The information about the radiation risk of non-cancer respiratory diseases is inconsistent and mainly corresponds to mortality. Previously, the cohort of workers employed at the first Russian nuclear facility Mayak Production Association who were occupationally exposed to gamma rays (externally) and to alpha-active plutonium aerosols (internally) over prolonged periods demonstrated an increased risk of chronic bronchitis (CB) incidence. Within this retrospective cohort study, we performed analyses of incidence of and mortality from CB and bronchial asthma (BA) using improved estimates of radiation doses provided by the 'Mayak Worker Dosimetry System (MWDS)-2013'. The cohort included 22 377 individuals hired in 1948-1982, and its follow-up was extended by 10 years (to the end of 2018). The excess relative risk of CB incidence per unit of accumulated lung-absorbed radiation dose (ERR/Gy) and the 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were: with the 0 year lag, ERR/Gy was 0.07 (95% CI -0.01, 0.17) for gamma exposure and 0.36 (95% CI 0.13, 0.68) for alpha exposure; with the 10 year lag, ERR/Gy was 0.15 (95% CI 0.04, 0.30) for gamma exposure and 0.54 (95% CI 0.19, 1.03) for alpha exposure. No strong evidence was found indicating that gamma and alpha exposure considerably impacted the risk of mortality from CB. The study confirmed the significant positive linear association of the CB incidence risk with gamma and alpha radiation doses from occupational chronic external and internal exposure. However, the estimates of ERR/Gy of alpha particles from internal exposure appeared to be almost three times lower than those based on the MWDS-2008 doses. The observed inconsistency requires further clarification. As for BA in Mayak workers, no association was demonstrated in the incidence and mortality risks with occupational gamma and alpha radiation exposure.

Consequences of ionizing radiation exposure to the cardiovascular system

Ionizing radiation is widely used in various industrial and medical applications, resulting in increased exposure for certain populations. Lessons from radiation accidents and occupational exposure have highlighted the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular risks associated with radiation exposure. In addition, radiation therapy for cancer has been linked to numerous cardiovascular complications, depending on the distribution of the dose by volume in the heart and other relevant target tissues in the circulatory system. The manifestation of symptoms is influenced by numerous factors, and distinct cardiac complications have previously been observed in different groups of patients with cancer undergoing radiation therapy. However, in contemporary radiation therapy, advances in treatment planning with conformal radiation delivery have markedly reduced the mean heart dose and volume of exposure, and these variables are therefore no longer sole surrogates for predicting the risk of specific types of heart disease. Nevertheless, certain cardiac substructures remain vulnerable to radiation exposure, necessitating close monitoring. In this Review, we provide a comprehensive overview of the consequences of radiation exposure on the cardiovascular system, drawing insights from various cohorts exposed to uniform, whole-body radiation or to partial-body irradiation, and identify potential risk modifiers in the development of radiation-associated cardiovascular disease.

URINARY EXCRETION OF PLUTONIUM IN MAYAK WORKERS DURING AND AFTER CA-DTPA ADMINISTRATION

Chelation therapy is sometimes used after potential exposures to plutonium to increase urinary excretion of the radionuclide to improve the accuracy of bioassay measurements. The purpose of this report is to describe the enhancement of urinary excretion of plutonium during and after the administration of the trisodium salt of calcium diethylenetriaminepentaacetate (Ca-DTPA) daily for 3 d to a group of male and female plutonium workers from the Mayak Production Association in Ozyorsk, Russia. One-hundred and two cases (18 females and 84 males) were selected where urinary contents of plutonium, prior to chelation, exceeded the detection threshold. Daily urine collections were obtained during the 3 d of Ca-DTPA treatments. In addition, 58 of these cases had urine bioassays at 1-45 d after chelation. The daily enhancement over baseline values excretion of plutonium was found to be 50.4×/1.4 (geometric mean and geometric standard deviation); 58.9×/1.2; 72.9×/1.4 in the first, second and third days of Ca-DTPA administration. The mean enhancement for the 3-d period was 60.1×/1.7. The rate of plutonium excretion from 1 to 45 d after chelation decreased with a half-period of 3.9 d and the chelation enhancement factor (Кenh-i) is described by the function Кenh-i = (0.79 ± 0.24) + (42.9 ± 1.2) × e-(0.18 ± 0.01) × day.

Mortality among workers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, 1943-2017

BACKGROUND

During World War II (WWII), the Manhattan Engineering District established a secret laboratory in the mountains of northern New Mexico. The mission was to design, construct and test the first atomic weapon, nicknamed 'The Gadget' that was detonated at the TRINITY site in Alamogordo, NM. After WWII, nuclear weapons research continued, and the laboratory became the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The mortality experience of 26,328 workers first employed between 1943 and 1980 at LANL was determined through 2017. Included were 6157 contract workers employed by the ZIA Company. Organ dose estimates for each worker considered all sources of exposure, notably photons, neutrons, tritium, ²³⁸Pu and ²³⁹Pu. Vital status determination included searches within the National Death Index, Social Security Administration and New Mexico State Mortality Files. Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) and Cox regression models were used in the analyses.

RESULTS

Most workers (55%) were hired before 1960, 38% had a college degree, 25% were female, 81% white, 13% Hispanic and 60% had died. Vital status was complete, with only 0.1% lost to follow-up. The mean dose to the lung for the 17,053 workers monitored for radiation was 28.6 weighted-mGy (maximum 16.8 weighted-Gy) assuming a Dose Weighting Factor of 20 for alpha particle dose to lung. The Excess Relative Risk (ERR) at 100 weighted-mGy was 0.01 (95%CI -0.02, 0.03; n = 839) for lung cancer. The ERR at 100 mGy was -0.43 (95%CI -1.11, 0.24; n = 160) for leukemia other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), -0.06 (95%CI -0.16, 0.04; n = 3043) for ischemic heart disease (IHD), and 0.29 (95%CI 0.02, 0.55; n = 106) for esophageal cancer. Among the 6499 workers with measurable intakes of plutonium, an increase in bone cancer (SMR 2.44; 95%CI 0.98, 5.03; n = 7) was related to dose. The SMR for berylliosis was significantly high, based on 4 deaths. SMRs for Hispanic workers were significantly high for cancers of the stomach and liver, cirrhosis of the liver, nonmalignant kidney disease and diabetes, but the excesses were not related to radiation dose.

CONCLUSIONS

There was little evidence that radiation increased the risk of lung cancer or leukemia. Esophageal cancer was associated with radiation, and plutonium intakes were linked to an increase of bone cancer. IHD was not associated with radiation dose. More precise evaluations will await the pooled analysis of workers with similar exposures such as at Rocky Flats, Savannah River and Hanford.

Lung Cancer in the Mayak Workers Cohort: Risk Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis

The workers at the Mayak nuclear facility near Ozyorsk, Russia are a primary source of information about exposure to radiation at low-dose rates, since they were subject to protracted exposures to external gamma rays and to internal exposures from plutonium inhalation. Here we re-examine lung cancer mortality rates and assess the effects of external gamma and internal plutonium exposures using recently developed Monte Carlo dosimetry systems. Using individual lagged mean annual lung doses computed from the dose realizations, we fit excess relative risk (ERR) models to the lung cancer mortality data for the Mayak Workers Cohort using risk-modeling software. We then used the corrected-information matrix (CIM) approach to widen the confidence intervals of ERR by taking into account the uncertainty in doses represented by multiple realizations from the Monte Carlo dosimetry systems. Findings of this work revealed that there were 930 lung cancer deaths during follow-up. Plutonium lung doses (but not gamma doses) were generally higher in the new dosimetry systems than those used in the previous analysis. This led to a reduction in the risk per unit dose compared to prior estimates. The estimated ERR/Gy for external gamma-ray exposure was 0.19 (95% CI: 0.07 to 0.31) for both sexes combined, while the ERR/Gy for internal exposures based on mean plutonium doses were 3.5 (95% CI: 2.3 to 4.6) and 8.9 (95% CI: 3.4 to 14) for males and females at attained age 60. Accounting for uncertainty in dose had little effect on the confidence intervals for the ERR associated with gamma-ray exposure, but had a marked impact on confidence intervals, particularly the upper bounds, for the effect of plutonium exposure [adjusted 95% CIs: 1.5 to 8.9 for males and 2.7 to 28 for females]. In conclusion, lung cancer rates increased significantly with both external gamma-ray and internal plutonium exposures. Accounting for the effects of dose uncertainty markedly increased the width of the confidence intervals for the plutonium dose response but had little impact on the external gamma dose effect estimate. Adjusting risk estimate confidence intervals using CIM provides a solution to the important problem of dose uncertainty. This work demonstrates, for the first time, that it is possible and practical to use our recently developed CIM method to make such adjustments in a large cohort study.

The effects of chronic diseases on plutonium urinary excretion in former workers of the Mayak Production Association

The radiochemical analysis of plutonium activity in urine is the main method for indirect estimation of doses of internal exposure from plutonium incorporation in professional workers. It was previously shown that late-in-life acute diseases, particularly those that affect the liver, can promote accelerated rates of release of plutonium from the liver with enhanced excretion rates. This initial study examines the relationships of some chronic diseases on plutonium excretion as well as the terminal relative distribution of plutonium between the liver and skeleton. Fourteen cases from former workers at the Mayak Production Association (Mayak PA) who provided from 4–9 urine plutonium bioassays for plutonium, had an autopsy conducted after death, and had sufficient clinical records to document their health status were used in this study. Enhanced plutonium excretion was associated with more serious chronic diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and other diseases that involved the liver. These chronic diseases were also associated with relatively less plutonium found in the liver relative to the skeleton determined by analyses conducted after autopsy. These data further document health conditions that affect plutonium biokinetics and organ deposition and retention patterns and suggest that health status should be considered when conducting plutonium bioassays as these may alter subsequent dosimetry and risk models.

An update on effects of ionizing radiation exposure on the eye

The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has considered for over 60 years that the lens of the eye is among the most radiosensitive tissues, and has recommended dose limits for the lens to prevent occurrence of vision impairing cataracts (VICs). Epidemiological evidence that doses much lower than previously thought produce cataracts led ICRP to recommend reducing dose threshold for VICs and reducing an occupational equivalent dose limit for the lens in 2011, when only a single threshold of 0.5 Gy was recommended. On the basis of epidemiological evidence, ICRP assumed progression of minor opacities into VICs and no dose rate effect. This contrasts with previously recommended separate thresholds for minor opacities and VICs, and for different exposure scenarios. Progression was assumed based on similar risks of cataracts and cataract surgery in Japanese atomic bomb survivors. The absence of dose rate effect derived from the observed similar thresholds for protracted exposures in Chernobyl cleanup workers and in atomic bomb survivors. Since 2011, there has been an increasing body of epidemiological evidence relating to cataracts and other ocular diseases (i.e. glaucoma and macular degeneration), particularly at low doses and low dose rates. This review paper gives an overview of the scientific basis of the 2011 ICRP recommendation, discusses the plausibility of these two assumptions in the light of emerging scientific evidence, and considers the radiosensitivity of the lens among ocular structures.

Plutonium production and particles incorporation into the human body

Plutonium is one of the most toxic radioactive substances known. The isotope ²³⁹Pu gained attention when it had become known as a potential explosive material for atomic bombs. This paper describes the main problems encountered during the early years of operation of the first plutonium production plant in the former Soviet Union, the Mayak Production Association (Mayak PA). Mayak PA caused severe radioactive contamination of the environment and exposure personnel and population living in the vicinity areas to high radiation doses. The authors focus on key findings of large-scale studies on the internal dosimetry of workers for use in assessment of radiological risks from exposure to plutonium. This work presents an overview of the important issues for inhalation dose assessments such as generation of plutonium particles, plutonium intake, dissolution of plutonium particles, distribution of plutonium in humans, related exposures and health effects. Understanding the relationship between health effects, radiation dose and route of exposure helps quantify the health risks associated with occupational exposure in the nuclear industry and validate the radiation protection standards used in the Russian Federation and worldwide.

Somatic mutation signatures in primary liver tumors of workers exposed to ionizing radiation

Liver cancer is associated with genetic mutations caused by environmental exposures, including occupational exposure to alpha radiation emitted by plutonium. We used whole exome sequencing (WES) to characterize somatic mutations in 3 histologically distinct primary liver tumors (angiosarcoma of the liver (ASL), cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)) from Mayak worker subjects occupationally exposed to ionizing radiation (IR) to investigate the contribution of IR to the mutational landscape of liver cancer. DNA sequence analysis revealed these tumors harbor an excess of deletions, with a deletions:substitutions ratio similar to that previously reported in radiation-associated tumors. These tumors were also enriched for clustered mutations, a signature of radiation exposure. Multiple tumors displayed similarities in abrogated gene pathways including actin cytoskeletal signaling and DNA double-strand break (DSB) repair. WES identified novel candidate driver genes in ASL involved in angiogenesis and PIK3CA/AKT/mTOR signaling. We confirmed known driver genes of CCA, and identified candidate driver genes involved in chromatin remodeling. In HCC tumors we validated known driver genes, and identified novel putative driver genes involved in Wnt/β-catenin signaling, chromatin remodeling, PIK3CA/AKT/mTOR signaling, and angiogenesis. This pilot study identifies several novel candidate driver mutations that are likely to be caused by IR exposure, and provides the first data on the mutational landscape of liver cancer after IR exposure.

Glaucoma incidence risk in a cohort of Mayak PA workers occupationally exposed to ionizing radiation

Glaucoma is a major cause of visual impairment, and secondary glaucoma manifested as neovascular glaucoma has long been known to occur following high-dose fractionated radiation therapy. In contrast, little is known as to whether ionizing radiation exposure causes primary glaucoma, except that a single study in Japanese atomic bomb survivors has reported a significantly increase risk. Therefore, the effect of lower dose and lower dose rate remains unclear. Here we report that in Russian Mayak Production Association workers occupationally exposed to chronic radiation for prolonged periods, incidence of total primary glaucoma and primary open-angle glaucoma is significantly associated with various non-radiation factors (sex, attained age, and cataract diagnosed prior to glaucoma), but neither with cumulative dose from external γ-rays nor with cumulative neutron dose nor with the unweighted sum of cumulative γ and neutron doses. The present results suggest for the first time that chronic radiation exposure does not cause primary glaucoma, although the analyses need to be made in other cohorts exposed at various dose and dose rate.

Risk of cataract removal surgery in Mayak PA workers occupationally exposed to ionizing radiation over prolonged periods

In this study, the risk of cataract removal surgery was assessed in a cohort of workers occupationally exposed to ionizing radiation over a prolonged period. The study cohort includes 22,377 workers of the Mayak Production Association (about 25% of whom are females) first employed at one of the main facilities in 1948-1982, who were followed up to the end of 2008. Dose estimates used in the study are provided by the Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2008. The mean cumulative dose from external γ-rays [personal dose equivalent H_p(10)] is 0.54 ± 0.76 Sv for males and 0.44 ± 0.65 Sv for females. The mean cumulative doses from neutrons (personal dose equivalent H_p(10)_n) were 0.034 ± 0.080 Sv for males and 0.033 ± 0.092 Sv for females. Relative risks and excess relative risks per unit dose were calculated based on maximum likelihood. Among 4,177 workers diagnosed with a verified diagnosis of senile cataract, 701 lens removal surgeries (16.7%) were performed by the end of the follow-up period. The risk of cataract removal surgery was shown to be significantly associated with non-radiation factors such as sex, attained age, smoking, an ocular comorbidity (e.g., glaucoma), and a somatic comorbidity (e.g., diabetes mellitus). There was no significant association of cataract removal surgery with external γ-dose regardless of inclusion of the neutron dose adjustment with either linear or non-linear models. It is concluded that cataract removal surgery rate may not be a highly sensitive and specific indicator that could serve as a surrogate for radiation-related cataracts.

Bayesian Analysis of Plutonium Bioassay Data at Los Alamos National Laboratory

The main concern of operational internal dosimetry is to detect intakes and estimate doses to the worker from a series of bioassay measurements. Although several methods are available, the inverse problem of internal dosimetry-i.e., determination of time, amount, and types of intake given a set of bioassay data-is well suited to a Bayesian approach. This paper summarizes the Bayesian methodology used at Los Alamos National Laboratory to detect intakes and estimate doses from plutonium bioassay measurements. Some advantages and disadvantages of the method are also discussed. The successful application of Bayesian methods for several years at Los Alamos National Laboratory, which monitors thousands of workers annually for plutonium, indicates that the methods can be extended to other facilities.

Immunological Markers of Chronic Occupational Radiation Exposure

This study aimed to identify immunological biomarkers for prolonged occupational radiation exposure and thus studied a random sample of the Mayak Production Association worker cohort (91 individuals). The control group included 43 local individuals never employed at the Mayak Production Association. To identify biomarkers, two groups of workers were formed: the first one included workers chronically exposed to external gamma rays at cumulative doses of 0.5-3.0 Gy (14 individuals); the second one included workers exposed to combined radiation-external gamma rays at doses ranging from 0.7 to 5.1 Gy and internal alpha radiation from incorporated plutonium with 0.3-16.4 kBq body burden (77 individuals). The age range of the study individuals was 66-91 y. Peripheral blood serum protein concentrations of cytokines, immunoglobulins, and matrix metalloproteinase-9 were analyzed using enzyme-linked immunoassay following the manufacturer's protocol. Flow cytometry was used to analyze levels of various lymphocyte subpopulations. The findings of the current study demonstrate that some immunological characteristics may be considered as biomarkers of prolonged chronic radiation exposure for any radiation type (in the delayed period after the exposure) based on fold differences from controls: M immunoglobulin fold differences were 1.75 ± 0.27 (p = 0.0001) for external gamma-ray exposure and 1.50 ± 0.27 (p = 0.0003) for combined radiation exposure; matrix metalloproteinase-9 fold differences were 1.5 ± 0.22 (p = 0.008) for external gamma-ray exposure and 1.69 ± 0.24 (p = 0.00007) for combined radiation exposure; A immunoglobulin fold differences were 1.61 ± 0.27 (p = 0.002) for external gamma-ray exposure and 1.56 ± 0.27 (p = 0.00002) for combined radiation exposure; relative concentration of natural killer cell fold differences were 1.53 ± 0.23 (p = 0.01) for external gamma-ray exposure and 1.35 ± 0.22 (p = 0.001) for combined radiation exposure; and relative concentration of T-lymphocytes fold differences were 0.89 ± 0.04 (p = 0.01) for external gamma-ray exposure and 0.95 ± 0.05 (p = 0.003) for combined radiation exposure. Based on fold differences from controls, interferon-gamma (3.50 ± 0.65, p = 0.031), transforming growth factor-beta (2.91 ± 0.389, p = 0.026), and relative blood serum levels of T-helper cells (0.90 ± 0.065, p = 0.02) may be used as immunological markers of chronic external gamma-ray exposure. Moreover, there was a significant inverse linear association of relative concentration of T-helper cells with dose from external gamma rays accumulated over an extended period.

Typical doses and dose rates in studies pertinent to radiation risk inference at low doses and low dose rates

In order to quantify radiation risks at exposure scenarios relevant for radiation protection, often extrapolation of data obtained at high doses and high dose rates down to low doses and low dose rates is needed. Task Group TG91 on 'Radiation Risk Inference at Low-dose and Low-dose Rate Exposure for Radiological Protection Purposes' of the International Commission on Radiological Protection is currently reviewing the relevant cellular, animal and human studies that could be used for that purpose. This paper provides an overview of dose rates and doses typically used or present in those studies, and compares them with doses and dose rates typical of those received by the A-bomb survivors in Japan.

An Assessment of Radiation-Associated Risks of Mortality from Circulatory Disease in the Cohorts of Mayak and Sellafield Nuclear Workers

Mortality from circulatory disease (CD), ischemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) was investigated in relationship to cumulative doses of external gamma radiation and internal alpha radiation to the liver from deposited plutonium over long follow-up periods in two large cohorts of nuclear workers: the Russian Mayak Worker Cohort (MWC) and the UK Sellafield Worker Cohort (SWC). The MWC comprised 22,374 workers (74.6% males) with 5,123 CD deaths registered during 842,538 person-years of follow-up, while the SWC comprised 23,443 workers (87.8% males) with 2,322 CD deaths registered during 602,311 person-years of follow-up. Dose estimates for external gamma radiation and internal alpha radiation to the liver were calculated via a common methodology, in accordance with an agreed protocol. The mean cumulative external H_p(10) dose was 0.52 Sv for the MWC and 0.07 Sv for the SWC, while the mean cumulative internal dose was 0.19 Gy for the MWC and 0.01 Gy for the SWC. Categorical relative risks (RR) and excess relative risks (ERR) per unit dose were estimated for each cohort and for the pooled cohort when appropriate. The dose responses for CD, IHD and CeVD in relationship to internal alpha-particle dose did not differ significantly from the null for either the MWC, the SWC or the pooled plutonium worker cohort. The ERR/Sv estimates in relationship to external exposure were significantly raised for both cohorts (marginally so for the MWC) for CD and IHD (but not for CeVD), but differed significantly between the two cohorts, the estimate for the SWC being approximately ten times greater than that for the MWC. Examination of the ERR/Sv estimates for two periods of first employment at the two facilities revealed that the significant heterogeneity was confined to the earlier sub-cohorts, and that the estimates for the later sub-cohorts were compatible. The two sub-cohorts for the later first-employment periods were pooled, producing risk estimates that were raised, but not significantly so: ERR/Sv for CD, IHD and CeVD of 0.22 (95% CI: -0.01, 0.49), 0.22 (95% CI: -0.06, 0.57) and 0.24 (95% CI: -0.17, 0.80), respectively. The reasons for the complex pattern of results found in this study are unclear. Among potential explanations are the influence of differences in background CD mortality rates, an effect of other occupational factors, substantial uncertainties in doses, particularly during earlier periods of operations, as well as confounding and/or modifying factors that were not taken into account in the current analysis.

The Mayak Worker Dosimetry System (MWDS-2013): How to Reduce Hyper-Realisations to Realisations

Two important aspects in which the MWDS-2013 output (absorbed dose to organs calculated in each calendar year) differs from previous data bases (MWDS-2008 and DOSES-2005) are that they have been designed to (a) deal explicitly with uncertainties in model parameters, and (b) differentiate parameters that are considered to be shared (unknown, but having the same value for all workers) and unshared (unknown, but having different values between workers). A multiple-realisation approach is used to preserve information on the effects of shared and unshared parameters both for internal and external doses. Previously, a single realisation (a set of organ doses: one for each worker in the cohort) was calculated using the best estimates of parameter values only. In MWDS-2013, a set of 1000 realisations is produced, to reflect the uncertainty in assumed model parameters: each realisation using a different set of parameter values. Within each realisation, shared parameter values are fixed throughout the cohort, while unshared parameters are allowed to vary between workers. One problem is that because the calculation of organ dose is Bayesian, the estimate for each organ dose is not just a single value, but is itself a distribution (hyper-dose). Technically, it is the probability density of dose given the sampled set of parameter values and given the data for that worker. Thus, in our case, the realisations consist not of single doses, but distributions of doses. The term hyper-realisation is used to differentiate this from the more conventional realisation. Although the multiple hyper-realisation in principle contains all of the necessary information on parameter uncertainty, including shared and unshared parameters, in order to make preliminary epidemiological analyses tractable, and also for consistency with the external doses, it was required to convert the hyper-realisations to realisations. The aim of this paper is to discuss the different approaches that were considered to do this, and to define the method that was eventually chosen. Single spot (point) estimates of dose (for each worker) were also calculated to support the epidemiological analysis. The different methods for obtaining these and the implications are also discussed.

THE MAYAK WORKER DOSIMETRY SYTEM (MWDS-2013): DETERMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL SCENARIO OF INHALED PLUTONIUM INTAKE IN THE MAYAK WORKERS

In order to estimate doses of workers exposed to plutonium, it is necessary to make assumptions about both the route and the time course of intake. The objective of this study was to determine a time course for the inhalation rate for plutonium (intake regime) useful for biokinetic modeling. Records from workplace air sampling, personnel biophysical examinations and autopsy data from former Mayak Production Association (MPA) workers were used. Plutonium accumulation strongly correlated with the volumetric activity of plutonium in workplace air. Using data from activity in air at MPA workplaces over time, a three-step function of intake was adopted. The adequacy of this three-step function was tested by comparing predicted doses using more complicated intake regimes. Uncertainties on the three-step function were also characterized based on air sampling data. The three-step function was assumed to be common to all workers, but an individual intake regime for each worker was calculated by convoluting it with the worker's actual employment history.

The Mayak Worker Dosimetry System (MWDS-2013): Internal Dosimetry Results

The distribution of calculated internal doses has been determined for 8043 Mayak Production Associate (Mayak PA) workers. This is a subset of the entire cohort of 25 757 workers, for whom monitoring data are available. Statistical characteristics of point estimates of accumulated doses to 17 different tissues and organs and the uncertainty ranges were calculated. Under the MWDS-2013 dosimetry system, the mean accumulated lung dose was 185 ± 594 mGy (geometric mean = 28 mGy; geometric standard deviation = 9.32; median value = 31 mGy; maximum value = 8980 mGy). The ranges of relative standard uncertainty were from 40 to 2200% for accumulated lung dose, from 25-90% to 2600-3000% for accumulated dose to different regions of respiratory tract, from 13-22% to 2300-2500% for systemic organs and tissues. The Mayak PA workers accumulated internal plutonium lung dose is shown to be close to log normal. The accumulated internal plutonium dose to systemic organs was close to a log triangle. The dependency of uncertainty of accumulated absorbed lung and liver doses on the dose estimates itself is also shown. The accumulated absorbed doses to lung, alveolar-interstitial region, liver, bone surface cells and red bone marrow calculated both with MWDS-2013 and MWDS-2008 have been compared. In general, the accumulated lung doses increased by a factor of 1.8 in median value, while the accumulated doses to systemic organs decreased by factor of 1.3-1.4 in median value. For the cases with identical initial data, accumulated lung doses increased by a factor of 2.1 in median value, while accumulated doses to systemic organs decreased by 8-13% in median value. For the cases with both identical initial data and all of plutonium activity in urine measurements above the decision threshold, accumulated lung doses increased by a factor of 2.7 in median value, while accumulated doses to systemic organs increased by 6-12% in median value.

The Mayak Worker Dosimetry System (MWDS-2013): Estimate of Pu Content in Lungs and Thoracic Lymph Nodes From a Limited Set of Organ Autopsy Samples

A method to estimate plutonium content from a limited number of samples of lungs and pulmonary lymph nodes obtained at autopsies of former Mayak Production Association (MPA) workers is described. Historically from one to five samples of lung lobes and one to three respiratory lymph nodes (bronchopulmonary, tracheobronchial and paratracheal) were collected. The samples were used to estimate organ plutonium contents for cases where incomplete sets of samples were obtained, i.e. one to four lung lobes and one to two lymph nodes. This method was developed and validated using individual measurement data from 259 MPA autopsy cases with complete lung samples (five lobes) and three lymph nodes. A good correlation of plutonium content in measurements of two and four lung samples with the content estimate by five lung samples was obtained. The correlations with the individual lymph nodes were less robust than with the lung. The data are used to develop biokinetic, dosimetry and risk models for humans exposed to plutonium.

The Mayak Worker Dosimetry System (MWDS-2013): Uncertainty in the Measurement of Pu Activity in a 24-Hour Urine Sample of a Typical Mayak PA Worker

In the Mayak Worker Dosimetry System (MWDS-2013), intakes of plutonium and organ doses are assessed on the basis of measurements made on the plutonium content of 56 400 urine samples. Altogether, there were urine bioassays for 7591 (29%) of the 25 757 cohort members who were employed any time at Mayak between 1948 and 1982. These measurements are subject to uncertainty due to many factors (e.g. whether or not creatinine is measured, the volume of the sample, whether diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid was administered, etc.) and this uncertainty will affect not only the uncertainty in the estimated doses, but also the values of the doses themselves. Therefore, it is important for the estimated uncertainty to be as accurate as possible. The input to the dose calculation requires an estimate of the plutonium activity in a true 24-hour sample. The uncertainty in this activity is approximated by a lognormal distribution. The aim of this paper is to describe and justify how the parameters of this lognormal distribution are derived from the raw data. Histograms of the distribution of sample volumes are given for both sexes. The method of calculation of the decision threshold and relative standard uncertainty (RSU) of a measurement result for Pu activity in a worker's urine sample is shown. Diagrams of correlation between Pu activity in collected urine and its RSU are given.

The Mayak Worker Dosimetry System (MWDS-2013): How to Weight the Absorbed Dose to Different Lung Regions in the Calculation of Lung Dose

In the Mayak Worker Dosimetry System-2013, lung dose is calculated as an average of the three absorbed doses to the bronchial, the bronchiolar and the alveolar regions. Previous epidemiological studies involving Mayak Workers have used a lung dose calculated as the total energy deposited in the lungs divided by the mass. These two definitions lead to very different estimates of lung dose, especially for radon dosimetry. This paper uses the results of recent epidemiological studies to justify the use of a regionally weighted lung dose (wi = 1/3, I = 1, 3) over the use of an 'average lung' dose.

The Mayak Worker Dosimetry System-2013: Treatment of Organ Masses in the Calculation of Organ Doses

Previous Mayak worker epidemiological studies designed to quantify the risk of cancer following exposure to airborne plutonium have calculated organ doses by dividing the organ-absorbed energy by the individual's estimated organ mass. For living workers, this was done by using a relationship between organ mass and total mass and height. For autopsy cases, this was measured directly. In the Mayak Worker Dosimetry System-2013 study, organ doses are calculated by dividing this energy by a population average organ mass. The reasons for departing from previous methodologies are described in this note. The average organ masses that were used in the final analysis are tabulated for males and females.

Mayak Worker Dosimetry System (MWDS-2013): Phase I-Quality Assurance of Organ Doses and Excretion Rates From Internal Exposures of Plutonium-239 for the Mayak Worker Cohort

The calculation of reliable and realistic doses for use in epidemiological studies for the quantification of risk from internal exposure to radioactive material is fundamental to the development of advice, guidance and regulations for the control and use of radioactive material. Thus, any programme of work carried out which requires the calculation of doses for use by epidemiologists ideally should contain a rigorous program of quality assurance (QA). This paper describes the initial QA (Phase I) implemented by Public Health England (PHE) and the Southern Urals Biophysics Institute (SUBI) as part of the work programme on internal dosimetry in the Joint Coordinating Committee for Radiation Effects Research Project 2.4 for the 2013 Mayak Worker Dosimetry System. SUBI designed and implemented new software (PANDORA) to include the latest Mayak Worker Dosimetry System and to calculate organ burdens, urinary excretion rates, intakes and absorbed doses, while PHE modified their commercially available IMBA Professional Plus software package. Comparisons of output from the two codes for the Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2013 showed calculated values of absorbed doses, intakes, organ burdens and urinary excretion agreed to within 1%. The 1% discrepancy can be explained by the approximation used in IMBA to speed up dose calculations.

Correction of confidence intervals in excess relative risk models using Monte Carlo dosimetry systems with shared errors

In epidemiological studies, exposures of interest are often measured with uncertainties, which may be independent or correlated. Independent errors can often be characterized relatively easily while correlated measurement errors have shared and hierarchical components that complicate the description of their structure. For some important studies, Monte Carlo dosimetry systems that provide multiple realizations of exposure estimates have been used to represent such complex error structures. While the effects of independent measurement errors on parameter estimation and methods to correct these effects have been studied comprehensively in the epidemiological literature, the literature on the effects of correlated errors, and associated correction methods is much more sparse. In this paper, we implement a novel method that calculates corrected confidence intervals based on the approximate asymptotic distribution of parameter estimates in linear excess relative risk (ERR) models. These models are widely used in survival analysis, particularly in radiation epidemiology. Specifically, for the dose effect estimate of interest (increase in relative risk per unit dose), a mixture distribution consisting of a normal and a lognormal component is applied. This choice of asymptotic approximation guarantees that corrected confidence intervals will always be bounded, a result which does not hold under a normal approximation. A simulation study was conducted to evaluate the proposed method in survival analysis using a realistic ERR model. We used both simulated Monte Carlo dosimetry systems (MCDS) and actual dose histories from the Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2013, a MCDS for plutonium exposures in the Mayak Worker Cohort. Results show our proposed methods provide much improved coverage probabilities for the dose effect parameter, and noticeable improvements for other model parameters.

[Risk of death from circulatory diseases in a cohort of patients exposed to chronic radiation]

AIM

To assess mortality from circulatory diseases (CD) in a cohort of workers exposed occupationally to chronic radiation in relation to external and internal exposure, by taking into account known non-radiation risk factors (RFs), such as smoking (including smoking index), alcohol consumption, hypertension, and body mass index.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Mortality from CD (ICD-10: I00 - I99) was studied in a cohort of 22,377 nuclear power plant («Mayak» Production Association) workers exposed occupationally to chronic radiation. The study was based on the individual dose estimates of external and internal exposure taken from the new Mayak workers dosimetry system 2008 (MWDS-2008). The quantitative characteristics of smoking (smoking index) were used for the first time to assess the risk for CD in the cohort of workers exposed to chronic radiation.

RESULTS

There was a statistically significant linear relationship between CD mortality and external gamma-dose after adjusting for the non-radiation RFs; the excess relative risk per unit dose (ERR/Gy) was 0.05 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0 to 0.11). Introducing an additional adjustment for internal alpha-dose resulted in a twofold increase in ERR/Gy=0.10 (95% CI: 0.02 to 0.21). There was a statistically significant increasing trend in CD mortality with the elevated absorbed dose from internal alpha-radiation in the liver (ERR/Gy=0.27; 95% CI: 0.12 to 0.48). However, ERR/Gy decreased and lost its statistical significance after adjusting for external gamma-dose.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study are in good agreement with risk estimates obtained in the Japanese cohort of atomic bomb survivors and in the cohorts of occupationally exposed workers.

Mortality from solid cancers other than lung, liver, and bone in relation to external dose among plutonium and non-plutonium workers in the Mayak Worker Cohort

Exposure to ionizing radiation has well-documented long-term effects on cancer rates and other health outcomes in humans. While in vitro experimental studies had demonstrated that the nature of some radiation effects depend on both total dose of the radiation and the dose rate (i.e., the pattern of dose distribution over time), the question of whether or not the carcinogenic effect of radiation exposure depends on the dose rate remains unanswered. Another issue of interest concerns whether or not concomitant exposure to external gamma rays and inhaled plutonium aerosols has any effect on the external exposure effects. The analyses of the present paper focus on the risk of solid cancers at sites other than lung, liver, and bone in Mayak workers. Recent findings are reviewed indicating that there is no evidence of plutonium dose response for these cancers in the Mayak worker cohort. Then the evidence for differences in the external dose effects among workers with and without the potential for exposure to alpha particles from inhaled plutonium is examined. It is found that there is no evidence that exposure to plutonium aerosols significantly affects the risk associated with external exposure. While the Mayak external dose risk estimate of an excess relative risk of 0.16 per Gy is somewhat lower than an appropriately normalized risk estimate from the Life Span Study of Japanese atomic bomb survivors, the uncertainties in these estimates preclude concluding that the external dose excess relative risks of this group of solid cancers differ in the two cohorts.

[Risk of senile cataract among nuclear industry workers]

AIM

to assess the relative risk (RR) of senile cataract in a cohort of workers occupationally exposed to external gamma-rays over a long time period.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The RR of cataract development was studied in a cohort of nuclear workers that were first employed in 1948-1982 and followed up till the end of 2008 (n=22,377; females, 25.4%). The mean age at initial employment was 24.9 years. The mean cumulative gamma-ray dose was 0.54 Sv in males and 0.44 Sv in females. The analysis performed with EPICURE software provided RR estimates for cataract incidence in relation to a number of non-radiation and radiation factors.

RESULTS

The RR of senile cataract increased with the attained age of the workers. The RR was significantly higher in males during the 2006-2008 period as compared to the 1996-2005 period. The RR was significantly higher in workers that were diagnosed with glaucoma and high myopia as compared to those that were not. The risk of senile cataract increased with the external gamma-ray dose and was the highest in workers who had formerly been exposed to doses above 2.00 Sv. The RR of senile cataract showed no dependency on sex, age at initial employment, smoking status, alcohol consumption, or diabetes mellitus.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of senile cataract in the cohort under study was found to depend on both non-radiation and radiation factors.

Risk of Cataract Incidence in a Cohort of Mayak PA Workers following Chronic Occupational Radiation Exposure

This is the first study of cataract incidence in a cohort of Mayak Production Association workers first employed at one of the main facilities in 1948-1982 and followed up till the end of 2008 (22,377 workers). Principal advantages of the study are the large size of the cohort, long-term follow-up and sufficient statistical power, available results of annual eye examinations over the entire follow-up period and detailed information on non-radiation confounders. Individual measured doses from external γ-rays and neutrons used in the analyses were provided by the Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2008 (MWDS-2008). Relative risk (RR) and excess relative risk (ERR) per unit dose (Gy) were calculated based on maximum likelihood using the AMFIT module of the EPICURE software. The RR of cataract incidence was found to be the highest in workers exposed at doses above 2.0 Gy. A significant linear association of cataract incidence with cumulative dose from external γ-rays was found with ERR/Gy equal to 0.28 (95% confidence intervals: 0.20, 0.37). The results obtained varied slightly with inclusion of additional adjustments for non-radiation factors (smoking index, hypertension, glaucoma and body mass index). Adjusting for the dose from neutrons gave a considerable increase in ERR/Gy for cataract incidence.

Risk of Hematologic Malignancies in the Offspring of Female Workers of the Mayak Nuclear Facility in the Southern Urals, Russian Federation

Long-term effects of in utero exposure to ionizing radiation remain poorly quantified in humans. In this study, the risk of hematologic malignancies was investigated in offspring of female workers of the Mayak Production Association, a large Russian nuclear facility. Excess relative risks (ERR) for exposure to gamma radiation and plutonium were estimated in a cohort of 8,466 offspring who were born between January 1, 1948 and December 31, 1988 and followed until 2009. An unstable linear ERR of 1.12 (95% CI 0.11-3.44) per 100 mGy gamma exposure in utero was estimated based on 32 incident hematologic malignancies in 277,002 person-years under risk. The ERR was increased in the dose category 20-79 mGy gamma exposure in utero (1.75, 95% CI 0.04; 5.63), while the other dose categories showed decreased or unstable estimates. Leukemia showed an ERR of 1.76 (95% CI 0.01-8.33) per 100 mGy based on 13 cases. There was no consistent association with plutonium exposure. While an increased risk of hematologic malignancies after gamma exposure in utero was suggested, the small numbers prevented more definitive conclusions.

Chronic bronchitis incidence in the extended cohort of Mayak workers first employed during 1948-1982

OBJECTIVES

This paper describes findings from the study of chronic bronchitis (CB) incidence after occupational exposure to ionising radiation among workers employed at Russian Mayak Production Association (PA) during 1948 and 1982 and followed up until 2008 based on 'Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2008'.

METHODS

Analyses were based on 2135 verified cases among 21 417 workers. Rate ratios (RR) were estimated by categorical analysis for non-radiation and radiation factors. Excess rate ratios per Gy (ERR/Gy) of external or internal exposures with adjustments via stratification on other factors were calculated.

RESULTS

The interesting finding in relation to non-radiation factors was a sharp increase in the RR for CB incidence before 1960, which could be caused by a number of factors. Analyses restricted to the follow-up after 1960 revealed statistically significant associations of the CB incidence and external γ-ray radiation, ERR/Gy=0.14 (95% CI 0.02 to 0.28) having adjusted for sex, attained age, calendar period, plant, smoking status and lung α-particle dose, and internal α-particle radiation, ERR/Gy=1.14 (95% CI 0.41 to 2.18) having adjusted for sex, attained age, calendar period, plant, smoking status and lung γ-ray dose and ERR/Gy=1.19 (95% CI 0.32 to 2.53) having additionally adjusted for pre-employment occupational hazards and smoking index instead of smoking status.

CONCLUSIONS

Analyses of CB incidence in the study cohort identified positive significant association with occupational exposure to radiation: however, there are no similar studies of CB incidence in relation to radiation in other cohorts to date with which a meaningful comparison of the results could be made.

Radiation Risks of Leukemia, Lymphoma and Multiple Myeloma Incidence in the Mayak Cohort: 1948-2004

Incidence of all types of lymphatic and hematopoietic cancers, including Hodgkin’s lymphoma, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, multiple myeloma, acute and chronic myeloid leukemia (AML and CML respectively), chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and other forms of leukemia have been studied in a cohort of 22,373 workers employed at the Mayak Production Association (PA) main facilities during 536,126 person-years of follow-up from the start of employment between 1948 and 1982 to the end of 2004. Risk assessment was performed for both external gamma-radiation and internal alpha-exposure of red bone marrow due to incorporated Pu-239 using Mayak Workers Dosimetry System 2008 taking into account non-radiation factors. The incidence of leukemia excluding CLL showed a non-linear dose response relationship for external gamma exposure with exponential effect modifiers based on time since exposure and age at exposure. Among the major subtypes of leukemia, the excess risk of AML was the highest within the first 2–5 years of external exposure (ERR per Gy: 38.40; 90% CI: 13.92–121.4) and decreased substantially thereafter, but the risks remained statistically significant (ERR per Gy: 2.63; 90% CI: 0.07–12.55). In comparison, excess CML first occurred 5 years after exposure and decreased about 10 years after exposure, although the association was not statistically significant (ERR per Gy: 1.39; 90% CI: -0.22–7.32). The study found no evidence of an association between leukemia and occupational exposure to internal plutonium ERR per Gy 2.13; 90% CI: <0–9.45). There was also no indication of any relationship with either external gamma or internal plutonium radiation exposure for either incidence of Hodgkin or non-Hodgkin lymphoma or multiple myeloma.

Incidence and Mortality of Solid Cancers in People Exposed In Utero to Ionizing Radiation: Pooled Analyses of Two Cohorts from the Southern Urals, Russia

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have shown that acute external in utero exposure to ionizing radiation can increase cancer risk. It is not known whether chronic exposure at low dose rates, including due to radionuclide intake, influences the lifetime risk of solid cancers in the offspring. The objective of this study was to investigate solid cancer risk after in utero irradiation.

METHODS

Cancer incidence and mortality over a 60-year period (from January 1950 to December 2009) were analyzed in the Urals Prenatally Exposed Cohort (UPEC). The cohort comprised in utero exposed offspring of Mayak Production Association female workers and of female residents of Techa River villages. Some of the offspring also received postnatal exposure, either due to becoming radiation workers themselves or due to continuing to live in the contaminated areas of the Techa River. The mortality analyses comprised 16,821 subjects (601,372 person-years), and the incidence analyses comprised 15,813 subjects (554,411 person-years). Poisson regression was used to quantify the relative risk as a function of the in utero soft tissue dose (with cumulative doses up to 944.9 mGy, mean dose of 14.1 mGy in the pooled cohort) and the postnatal stomach dose for solid cancer incidence and mortality.

RESULTS

When a log-linear model was used, relative risk of cancer per 10 mGy of in utero dose was 0.99 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.96 to 1.01) based on incidence data and 0.98 (CI = 0.94 to 1.01) based on mortality data. Postnatal exposure to ionizing radiation was positively associated with the solid cancer risk in members of the UPEC, with a relative risk of 1.02 per 10mGy CI = 1.00 to 1.04).

CONCLUSIONS

No strong evidence was found that chronic low-dose-rate exposure of the embryo and fetus increased the risk of solid cancers in childhood or in adulthood. For both incidence and mortality, a tendency towards a decreased relative risk was noted with increasing doses to soft tissues of the fetus. Further follow-up will provide more precise radiation risk estimates of solid cancer as cohort members are approaching their 60s and cancer becomes more common.

Risk of solid cancer in the offspring of female workers of the Mayak nuclear facility in the Southern Urals, Russian Federation

Studies of cancer risk following in utero exposure to ionizing radiation are limited in number, particularly for adult-onset cancers, and the evidence is unclear. In the present study, the risk of solid cancer incidence following in utero radiation exposure is examined among 8466 offspring of female nuclear workers at one of the largest nuclear facilities (Mayak Production Association) in the Russian Federation. Poisson regression methods were used to estimate excess relative risks (ERRs) per Gray (Gy). Mother's uterine gamma dose served as a surrogate for fetal gamma dose. During 277,002 person-years of follow-up (1948-2009), there were 177 first primary solid cancers excluding non-melanoma skin cancers. Estimated in utero gamma and plutonium doses exceeded zero for 41 and 23 % of offspring, respectively. Of the 177 solid cancers, 66 occurred among individuals with some in utero exposure to gamma radiation and 53 among those with estimated plutonium exposures. There was no indication of a statistically significantly increased risk of solid cancer incidence from in utero gamma exposure (linear ERR/Gy -1.0; upper 95 % confidence limit 0.5). This result was unchanged after accounting for subsequent occupational exposure. Plutonium doses were estimated but were too low to obtain meaningful risk estimates. Thus, in this cohort in utero radiation exposure was not associated with solid cancer risk. This is consistent with an earlier report of mortality in the cohort, but is based on twice as many cases and less susceptible to biases inherent in mortality analyses. Given the relatively young age of the cohort with respect to cancer, continued follow-up should be done as the number of cancer cases increases.

Risk of lower extremity arterial disease in a cohort of workers occupationally exposed to ionizing radiation over a prolonged period

In this study the incidence risk of lower extremity arterial disease (LEAD; international classification of diseases version 9 code 440.2) was assessed in a cohort of workers occupationally exposed to radiation over a prolonged period. The study cohort includes 22,377 workers of the Mayak Production Association (25% of whom are females) first employed at one of the main facilities in 1948-1982 and followed up to the end of 2008. Dose estimates used in the study are provided by Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2008. The mean total dose from external gamma-rays is 0.54 Gy for males and 0.44 Gy for females. The mean absorbed liver dose from internal alpha-radiation due to incorporated plutonium is 0.23 Gy in males and 0.44 Gy in females. Relative risks and excess relative risks per unit dose (ERR/Gy) are calculated based on maximum likelihood. A total of 943 cases of LEAD are registered in the study cohort during the follow-up of 512,801 person-years. A significant association of LEAD incidence with total dose from external gamma-rays (based on a linear model) was revealed, and the ERR/Gy is 0.27 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.11; 0.48). It turned out that a linear-exponential model provides a better fit of the data (∆AIC = 9.957). Inclusion of an adjustment for internal alpha-radiation dose resulted in the reduction of the ERR/Gy to 0.19 (95% CI 0.05; 0.39), but the risk remains significant. No association of LEAD incidence with dose from internal alpha-radiation was found in the study worker cohort. It is concluded that this study provides evidence for an association of LEAD incidence with dose from external gamma-rays taking non-radiation factors into account.

A review of job-exposure matrix methodology for application to workers exposed to radiation from internally deposited plutonium or other radioactive materials

Any potential health effects of radiation emitted from radionuclides deposited in the bodies of workers exposed to radioactive materials can be directly investigated through epidemiological studies. However, estimates of radionuclide exposure and consequent tissue-specific doses, particularly for early workers for whom monitoring was relatively crude but exposures tended to be highest, can be uncertain, limiting the accuracy of risk estimates. We review the use of job-exposure matrices (JEMs) in peer-reviewed epidemiological and exposure assessment studies of nuclear industry workers exposed to radioactive materials as a method for addressing gaps in exposure data, and discuss methodology and comparability between studies. We identified nine studies of nuclear worker cohorts in France, Russia, the USA and the UK that had incorporated JEMs in their exposure assessments. All these JEMs were study or cohort-specific, and although broadly comparable methodologies were used in their construction, this is insufficient to enable the transfer of any one JEM to another study. Moreover there was often inadequate detail on whether, or how, JEMs were validated. JEMs have become more detailed and more quantitative, and this trend may eventually enable better comparison across, and the pooling of, studies. We conclude that JEMs have been shown to be a valuable exposure assessment methodology for imputation of missing exposure data for nuclear worker cohorts with data not missing at random. The next step forward for direct comparison or pooled analysis of complete cohorts would be the use of transparent and transferable methods.

Dose and dose-rate effects of ionizing radiation: a discussion in the light of radiological protection

The biological effects on humans of low-dose and low-dose-rate exposures to ionizing radiation have always been of major interest. The most recent concept as suggested by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) is to extrapolate existing epidemiological data at high doses and dose rates down to low doses and low dose rates relevant to radiological protection, using the so-called dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor (DDREF). The present paper summarizes what was presented and discussed by experts from ICRP and Japan at a dedicated workshop on this topic held in May 2015 in Kyoto, Japan. This paper describes the historical development of the DDREF concept in light of emerging scientific evidence on dose and dose-rate effects, summarizes the conclusions recently drawn by a number of international organizations (e.g., BEIR VII, ICRP, SSK, UNSCEAR, and WHO), mentions current scientific efforts to obtain more data on low-dose and low-dose-rate effects at molecular, cellular, animal and human levels, and discusses future options that could be useful to improve and optimize the DDREF concept for the purpose of radiological protection.

Verification by the FISH translocation assay of historic doses to Mayak workers from external gamma radiation

The aim of this study was to apply the fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) translocation assay in combination with chromosome painting of peripheral blood lymphocytes for retrospective biological dosimetry of Mayak nuclear power plant workers exposed chronically to external gamma radiation. These data were compared with physical dose estimates based on monitoring with badge dosimeters throughout each person's working life. Chromosome translocation yields for 94 workers of the Mayak production association were measured in three laboratories: Southern Urals Biophysics Institute, Leiden University Medical Center and the former Health Protection Agency of the UK (hereinafter Public Health England). The results of the study demonstrated that the FISH-based translocation assay in workers with prolonged (chronic) occupational gamma-ray exposure was a reliable biological dosimeter even many years after radiation exposure. Cytogenetic estimates of red bone marrow doses from external gamma rays were reasonably consistent with dose measurements based on film badge readings successfully validated in dosimetry system "Doses-2005" by FISH, within the bounds of the associated uncertainties.

Ischaemic heart disease incidence and mortality in an extended cohort of Mayak workers first employed in 1948-1982

OBJECTIVE

Incidence and mortality from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) was studied in an extended cohort of 22,377 workers first employed at the Mayak Production Association during 1948-82 and followed up to the end of 2008.

METHODS

Relative risks and excess relative risks per unit dose (ERR/Gy) were calculated based on the maximum likelihood using Epicure software (Hirosoft International Corporation, Seattle, WA). Dose estimates used in analyses were provided by an updated "Mayak Worker Dosimetry System-2008".

RESULTS

A significant increasing linear trend in IHD incidence with total dose from external γ-rays was observed after having adjusted for non-radiation factors and dose from internal radiation {ERR/Gy = 0.10 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.04 to 0.17]}. The pure quadratic model provided a better fit of the data than did the linear one. No significant association of IHD mortality with total dose from external γ-rays after having adjusted for non-radiation factors and dose from internal alpha radiation was observed in the study cohort [ERR/Gy = 0.06 (95% CI: <0 to 0.15)]. A significant increasing linear trend was observed in IHD mortality with total absorbed dose from internal alpha radiation to the liver after having adjusted for non-radiation factors and dose from external γ-rays in both the whole cohort [ERR/Gy = 0.21 (95% CI: 0.01 to 0.58)] and the subcohort of workers exposed at alpha dose <1.00 Gy [ERR/Gy = 1.08 (95% CI: 0.34 to 2.15)]. No association of IHD incidence with total dose from internal alpha radiation to the liver was found in the whole cohort after having adjusted for non-radiation factors and external gamma dose [ERR/Gy = 0.02 (95% CI: not available to 0.10)]. Statistically significant dose effect was revealed in the subcohort of workers exposed to internal alpha radiation at dose to the liver <1.00 Gy [ERR/Gy = 0.44 (95% CI: 0.09 to 0.85)].

CONCLUSION

This study provides strong evidence of IHD incidence and mortality association with external γ-ray exposure and some evidence of IHD incidence and mortality association with internal alpha-radiation exposure.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

It is the first time the validity of internal radiation dose estimates has been shown to affect the risk of IHD incidence.

Proposed Modification to the Plutonium Systemic Model

The currently accepted biokinetic model for plutonium distribution within the human body was recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection in publication 67. This model was developed from human and animal studies and behavioral knowledge acquired from other known bone-seeking radionuclides. The biokinetic model provides a mathematical means of predicting the distribution, retention, and clearance of plutonium within the human body that may be used in deriving organ, tissue, and whole body dose. This work proposed a modification to the ICRP 67 systemic model for plutonium that incorporated the latest knowledge acquired from recent human injection studies with physiologically based improvements. In summary, the changes included a separation of the liver compartments, removed the intermediate soft tissue-to-bladder pathway, and added pathways from the blood compartment to both the cortical and trabecular bone volumes. The proposed model provided improved predictions for several bioassay indicators compared to the ICRP 67 model while also maintaining its basic structure. Additionally, the proposed model incorporated physiologically based improvements for the liver and skeleton and continued to ensure efficient coupling with intake biokinetic models.

Risk of mortality from circulatory diseases in Mayak workers cohort following occupational radiation exposure

Mortality from circulatory diseases (CD) (ICD-9 codes 390-459) was studied in an extended Mayak worker cohort, which included 22,377 workers first employed at the Mayak Production Association in 1948-1982 and followed up to the end of 2008. The enlarged cohort and extended follow-up as compared to the previous analyses provided an increased number of deaths from CD and improved statistical power of this mortality study. The analyses were based on dose estimates provided by a new Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2008 (MWDS-2008). For the first time in the study of non-cancer effects in this cohort quantitative smoking data (smoking index) were taken into account. A significant increasing trend for CD mortality with increasing dose from external gamma-rays was found after having adjusted for non-radiation factors; the excess relative risk per unit dose (ERR/Gy) was 0.05 (95% confidence interval (CI):  >0, 0.11). Inclusion of an additional adjustment for dose from internal alpha-radiation to the liver resulted in a two-fold increase of ERR/Gy = 0.10 (95% CI: 0.02, 0.21). A significant increasing trend in CD mortality with increasing dose from internal alpha-radiation to the liver was observed (ERR/Gy = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.12, 0.48). However the ERR/Gy decreased and lost its significance after adjusting for dose from external gamma-rays. Results of the current study are in good agreement with risk estimates obtained for the Japanese LSS cohort as well as other studies of cohorts of nuclear workers.

Beyond two-stage models for lung carcinogenesis in the Mayak workers: implications for plutonium risk

Mechanistic multi-stage models are used to analyze lung-cancer mortality after Plutonium exposure in the Mayak-workers cohort, with follow-up until 2008. Besides the established two-stage model with clonal expansion, models with three mutation stages as well as a model with two distinct pathways to cancer are studied. The results suggest that three-stage models offer an improved description of the data. The best-fitting models point to a mechanism where radiation increases the rate of clonal expansion. This is interpreted in terms of changes in cell-cycle control mediated by bystander signaling or repopulation following cell killing. No statistical evidence for a two-pathway model is found. To elucidate the implications of the different models for radiation risk, several exposure scenarios are studied. Models with a radiation effect at an early stage show a delayed response and a pronounced drop-off with older ages at exposure. Moreover, the dose-response relationship is strongly nonlinear for all three-stage models, revealing a marked increase above a critical dose.

Chromosome aberrations in workers with exposure to α-particle radiation from internal deposits of plutonium: expectations from in vitro studies and comparisons with workers with predominantly external γ-radiation exposure

mFISH analysis of chromosome aberration profiles of 47 and 144 h lymphocyte cultures following exposure to 193 mGy α-particle radiation confirmed that the frequency of stable aberrant cells and stable cells carrying translocations remains constant through repeated cell divisions. Age-specific rates and in vitro dose-response curves were used to derive expected translocation yields in nine workers from the Mayak nuclear facility in Russia. Five had external exposure to γ-radiation, two of whom also had exposure to neutrons, and four had external exposure to γ-radiation and internal exposure to α-particle radiation from incorporated plutonium. Doubts over the appropriateness of the dose response used to estimate translocations from the neutron component made interpretation difficult in two of the workers with external exposure, but the other three had translocation yields broadly in line with expectations. Three of the four plutonium workers had translocation yields in line with expectations, thus supporting the application of the recently derived in vitro α-particle dose response for translocations in stable cells. Overall this report demonstrates that with adequate reference in vitro dose-response curves, translocation yield has the potential to be a useful tool in the validation of red bone marrow doses resulting from mixed exposure to external and internal radiation.

Cerebrovascular Diseases in Workers at Mayak PA: The Difference in Radiation Risk between Incidence and Mortality

A detailed analysis of cerebrovascular diseases (CeVD) for the cohort of workers at Mayak Production Association (PA) is presented. This cohort is especially suitable for the analysis of radiation induced circulatory diseases, due to the detailed medical surveillance and information on several risk factors. The risk after external, typically protracted, gamma exposure is analysed, accounting for potential additional internal alpha exposure. Three different endpoints have been investigated: incidence and mortality from all cerebrovascular diseases and incidence of stroke. Particular emphasis was given to the form of the dose-response relationship and the time dependence of the radiation induced risk. Young attained age was observed to be an important, aggravating modifier of radiation risk for incidence of CeVD and stroke. For incidence of CeVD, our analysis supports a dose response sub-linear for low doses. Finally, the excess relative risk per dose was confirmed to be significantly higher for incidence of CeVD compared to CeVD mortality and incidence of stroke. Arguments are presented for this difference to be based on a true biological effect.

Microdosimetric considerations of lung cancer risks from plutonium

New data from the workers at the Mayak nuclear facility near Chelyabinsk, Russia, apparently show a linear increase in the risk of lung cancer with increasing dose. Furthermore, this increase occurs without a threshold. However, these conclusions are at variance with the results reported by other investigators. A possible cause of these inconsistencies could be the lack of application of microdosimetric considerations when discussing "dose" to the lung.

Radiation effects on mortality from solid cancers other than lung, liver, and bone cancer in the Mayak worker cohort: 1948-2008

Radiation effects on mortality from solid cancers other than lung, liver, and bone cancer in the Mayak worker cohort: 1948-2008. The cohort of Mayak Production Association (PA) workers in Russia offers a unique opportunity to study the effects of prolonged low dose rate external gamma exposures and exposure to plutonium in a working age population. We examined radiation effects on the risk of mortality from solid cancers excluding sites of primary plutonium deposition (lung, liver, and bone surface) among 25,757 workers who were first employed in 1948-1982. During the period 1948-2008, there were 1,825 deaths from cancers other than lung, liver and bone. Using colon dose as a representative external dose, a linear dose response model described the data well. The excess relative risk per Gray for external gamma exposure was 0.16 (95% CI: 0.07 - 0.26) when unadjusted for plutonium exposure and 0.12 (95% CI 0.03 - 0.21) when adjusted for plutonium dose and monitoring status. There was no significant effect modification by sex or attained age. Plutonium exposure was not significantly associated with the group of cancers analyzed after adjusting for monitoring status. Site-specific risks were uncertainly estimated but positive for 13 of the 15 sites evaluated with a statistically significant estimate only for esophageal cancer. Comparison with estimates based on the acute exposures in atomic bomb survivors suggests that the excess relative risk per Gray for prolonged external exposure in Mayak workers may be lower than that for acute exposure but, given the uncertainties, the possibility of equal effects cannot be dismissed.

Radiation effects on mortality from solid cancers other than lung, liver, and bone cancer in the Mayak worker cohort: 1948-2008

Radiation effects on mortality from solid cancers other than lung, liver, and bone cancer in the Mayak worker cohort: 1948-2008. The cohort of Mayak Production Association (PA) workers in Russia offers a unique opportunity to study the effects of prolonged low dose rate external gamma exposures and exposure to plutonium in a working age population. We examined radiation effects on the risk of mortality from solid cancers excluding sites of primary plutonium deposition (lung, liver, and bone surface) among 25,757 workers who were first employed in 1948-1982. During the period 1948-2008, there were 1,825 deaths from cancers other than lung, liver and bone. Using colon dose as a representative external dose, a linear dose response model described the data well. The excess relative risk per Gray for external gamma exposure was 0.16 (95% CI: 0.07 - 0.26) when unadjusted for plutonium exposure and 0.12 (95% CI 0.03 - 0.21) when adjusted for plutonium dose and monitoring status. There was no significant effect modification by sex or attained age. Plutonium exposure was not significantly associated with the group of cancers analyzed after adjusting for monitoring status. Site-specific risks were uncertainly estimated but positive for 13 of the 15 sites evaluated with a statistically significant estimate only for esophageal cancer. Comparison with estimates based on the acute exposures in atomic bomb survivors suggests that the excess relative risk per Gray for prolonged external exposure in Mayak workers may be lower than that for acute exposure but, given the uncertainties, the possibility of equal effects cannot be dismissed.