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Gounder L, Tomita A, Lessells R, Moodley S, Francois KL, Khan A, Pillay M, Manyana SC, Govender S, Govender K, Moodley P, Parboosing R, Msomi N, Tanser F, Naidoo K, Chimukangara B. Geospatial and temporal mapping of detectable HIV-1 viral loads amid dolutegravir rollout in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2024; 4:e0003224. [PMID: 38805477 PMCID: PMC11132473 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0003224] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2023] [Accepted: 04/20/2024] [Indexed: 05/30/2024]
Abstract
South Africa rolled out dolutegravir (DTG) as first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in December 2019 to overcome high rates of pretreatment non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor drug resistance. In the context of transition to DTG-based ART, this study spatiotemporally analysed detectable HIV viral loads (VLs) prior to- and following DTG rollout in public-sector healthcare facilities in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province, the epicentre of the HIV epidemic in South Africa. We retrospectively curated a HIV VL database using de-identified routine VL data obtained from the National Health Laboratory Service for the period January 2018 to June 2022. We analysed trends in HIV viraemia and mapped median log10 HIV VLs per facility on inverse distance weighted interpolation maps. We used Getis-Ord Gi* hotspot analysis to identify geospatial HIV hotspots. We obtained 7,639,978 HIV VL records from 736 healthcare facilities across KZN, of which 1,031,171 (13.5%) had detectable VLs (i.e., VLs ≥400 copies/millilitre (mL)). Of those with detectable VLs, we observed an overall decrease in HIV VLs between 2018 and 2022 (median 4.093 log10 copies/mL; 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.087-4.100 to median 3.563 log10 copies/mL; CI 3.553-3.572), p<0.01 (median test). The downward trend in proportion of HIV VLs ≥1000 copies/mL over time was accompanied by an inverse upward trend in the proportion of HIV VLs between 400 and 999 copies/mL. Moreover, specific coastal and northern districts of KZN had persistently higher VLs, with emergent hotspots demonstrating spatial clustering of high median log10 HIV VLs. The overall decrease in HIV VLs over time shows good progress towards achieving UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets in KZN, South Africa. The DTG-transition has been associated with a reduction in VLs, however, there is a need for pre-emptive monitoring of low-level viraemia. Furthermore, our findings highlight that specific districts will need intensified HIV care despite DTG rollout.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lilishia Gounder
- Department of Virology, Inkosi Albert Luthuli Academic Complex, National Health Laboratory Service, Durban, South Africa
- Department of Virology, School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Andrew Tomita
- Centre for Rural Health, School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Richard Lessells
- KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa
| | - Sandrini Moodley
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa
- South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), CAPRISA HIV-TB Pathogenesis and Treatment Research Unit, Durban, South Africa
| | - Kerri-Lee Francois
- Department of Virology, Inkosi Albert Luthuli Academic Complex, National Health Laboratory Service, Durban, South Africa
- Department of Virology, School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Aabida Khan
- Department of Virology, Inkosi Albert Luthuli Academic Complex, National Health Laboratory Service, Durban, South Africa
- Department of Virology, School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Melendhran Pillay
- Department of Virology, Inkosi Albert Luthuli Academic Complex, National Health Laboratory Service, Durban, South Africa
- Department of Virology, School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Sontaga C. Manyana
- Department of Virology, Inkosi Albert Luthuli Academic Complex, National Health Laboratory Service, Durban, South Africa
| | - Subitha Govender
- Department of Virology, Inkosi Albert Luthuli Academic Complex, National Health Laboratory Service, Durban, South Africa
| | - Kerusha Govender
- Department of Virology, School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Pravi Moodley
- Department of Virology, Inkosi Albert Luthuli Academic Complex, National Health Laboratory Service, Durban, South Africa
- Department of Virology, School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Raveen Parboosing
- Department of Virology, School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- School of Pathology, University of Witwatersrand & National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Nokukhanya Msomi
- Department of Virology, Inkosi Albert Luthuli Academic Complex, National Health Laboratory Service, Durban, South Africa
- Department of Virology, School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Frank Tanser
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation, School for Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
- DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - Kogieleum Naidoo
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa
- South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), CAPRISA HIV-TB Pathogenesis and Treatment Research Unit, Durban, South Africa
| | - Benjamin Chimukangara
- Department of Virology, School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), CAPRISA HIV-TB Pathogenesis and Treatment Research Unit, Durban, South Africa
- Critical Care Medicine Department, NIH Clinical Center, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
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Nardell MF, Govathson‐Mandimika C, Garnier S, Watts A, Babalola D, Ngcobo N, Long L, Lurie MN, Miot J, Pascoe S, Katz IT. "Emotional stress is more detrimental than the virus itself": A qualitative study to understand HIV testing and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use among internal migrant men in South Africa. J Int AIDS Soc 2024; 27:e26225. [PMID: 38462755 PMCID: PMC10935710 DOI: 10.1002/jia2.26225] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2023] [Accepted: 02/07/2024] [Indexed: 03/12/2024] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION South Africa has one of the highest rates of internal migration on the continent, largely comprised of men seeking labour in urban centres. South African men who move within the country (internal migrants) are at higher risk than non-migrant men of acquiring HIV yet are less likely to test or use pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). However, little is known about the mechanisms that link internal migration and challenges engaging in HIV services. METHODS We recruited 30 internal migrant men (born outside Gauteng Province) during August 2022 for in-depth qualitative interviews at two sites in Johannesburg (Gauteng) where migrants may gather, a factories workplace and a homeless shelter. Interviewers used open-ended questions, based in the Theory of Triadic Influence, to explore experiences and challenges with HIV testing and/or PrEP. A mixed deductive inductive content analytic approach was used to review data and explain why participants may or may not use these services. RESULTS Migrant men come to Johannesburg to find work, but unreliable income, daily stress and time constraints limit their availability to seek health services. While awareness of HIV testing is high, the fear of a positive diagnosis often overshadows the benefits. In addition, many men lack knowledge about the opportunity for PrEP should they test negative, though they express interest in the medication after learning about it. Additionally, these men struggle with adjusting to urban life, lack of social support and fear of potential stigma. Finally, the necessity to prioritize work combined with long wait times at clinics further restricts their access to HIV services. Despite these challenges, Johannesburg also presents opportunities for HIV services for migrant men, such as greater anonymity and availability of HIV information and services in the city as compared to their rural homes of origin. CONCLUSIONS Bringing HIV services to migrant men at community sites may ease the burden of accessing these services. Including PrEP counselling and services alongside HIV testing may further encourage men to test, particularly if integrated into counselling for livelihood and coping strategies, as well as support for navigating health services in Johannesburg.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria Francesca Nardell
- Division of Global Health EquityBrigham and Women's HospitalBostonMassachusettsUSA
- Harvard Medical SchoolBostonMassachusettsUSA
| | - Caroline Govathson‐Mandimika
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE2RO)JohannesburgSouth Africa
- Faculty of Health SciencesUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
| | | | | | | | - Nkosinathi Ngcobo
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE2RO)JohannesburgSouth Africa
- Faculty of Health SciencesUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
| | - Lawrence Long
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE2RO)JohannesburgSouth Africa
- Faculty of Health SciencesUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
- Department of Global HealthBoston University School of Public HealthBostonMassachusettsUSA
| | - Mark N. Lurie
- Brown University School of Public HealthBrown UniversityProvidenceRhode IslandUSA
| | - Jacqui Miot
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE2RO)JohannesburgSouth Africa
- Faculty of Health SciencesUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
| | - Sophie Pascoe
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE2RO)JohannesburgSouth Africa
- Faculty of Health SciencesUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
| | - Ingrid T. Katz
- Harvard Medical SchoolBostonMassachusettsUSA
- Division of Women's HealthBrigham and Women's HospitalBostonMassachusettsUSA
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Nardell MF, Govathson C, Mngadi-Ncube S, Ngcobo N, Letswalo D, Lurie M, Miot J, Long L, Katz IT, Pascoe S. Migrant men and HIV care engagement in Johannesburg, South Africa. BMC Public Health 2024; 24:435. [PMID: 38347453 PMCID: PMC10860300 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-024-17833-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2023] [Accepted: 01/20/2024] [Indexed: 02/15/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND South Africa (SA) has one of the highest rates of migration on the continent, largely comprised of men seeking labor opportunities in urban centers. Migrant men are at risk for challenges engaging in HIV care. However, rates of HIV and patterns of healthcare engagement among migrant men in urban Johannesburg are poorly understood. METHODS We analyzed data from 150 adult men (≥ 18 years) recruited in 10/2020-11/2020 at one of five sites in Johannesburg, Gauteng Province, SA where migrants typically gather for work, shelter, transit, or leisure: a factory, building materials store, homeless shelter, taxi rank, and public park. Participants were surveyed to assess migration factors (e.g., birth location, residency status), self-reported HIV status, and use and knowledge of HIV and general health services. Proportions were calculated with descriptive statistics. Associations between migration factors and health outcomes were examined with Fisher exact tests and logistic regression models. Internal migrants, who travel within the country, were defined as South African men born outside Gauteng Province. International migrants were defined as men born outside SA. RESULTS Two fifths (60/150, 40%) of participants were internal migrants and one fifth (33/150, 22%) were international migrants. More internal migrants reported living with HIV than non-migrants (20% vs 6%, p = 0.042), though in a multi-variate analysis controlling for age, being an internal migrant was not a significant predictor of self-reported HIV positive status. Over 90% all participants had undergone an HIV test in their lifetime. Less than 20% of all participants had heard of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), with only 12% international migrants having familiarity with PrEP. Over twice as many individuals without permanent residency or citizenship reported "never visiting a health facility," as compared to citizens/permanent residents (28.6% vs. 10.6%, p = 0.073). CONCLUSIONS Our study revealed a high proportion of migrants within our community-based sample of men and demonstrated a need for HIV and other healthcare services that effectively reach migrants in Johannesburg. Future research is warranted to further disaggregate this heterogenous population by different dimensions of mobility and to understand how to design HIV programs in ways that will address migrants' challenges.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria Francesca Nardell
- Division of Global Health Equity, Brigham and Women's Hospital, 75 Francis Street, Boston, MA, 02115, USA.
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
| | - Caroline Govathson
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE2RO), Johannesburg, South Africa
- Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Sithabile Mngadi-Ncube
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE2RO), Johannesburg, South Africa
- Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Nkosinathi Ngcobo
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE2RO), Johannesburg, South Africa
- Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Daniel Letswalo
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE2RO), Johannesburg, South Africa
- Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Mark Lurie
- Brown University School of Public Health, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, USA
| | - Jacqui Miot
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE2RO), Johannesburg, South Africa
- Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Lawrence Long
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE2RO), Johannesburg, South Africa
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Ingrid Theresa Katz
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
- Division of Women's Health, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Sophie Pascoe
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE2RO), Johannesburg, South Africa
- Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
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Mutie C, Kairu-Wanyoike S, Mambo S, Ngoge R, Gachohi J. Spatial distribution of sexual network locations used by long-distance truck drivers along the Northern Corridor highway, Kenya. Int Health 2023; 15:734-743. [PMID: 36964695 PMCID: PMC10629952 DOI: 10.1093/inthealth/ihad021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2022] [Revised: 02/16/2023] [Accepted: 03/07/2023] [Indexed: 03/26/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In Kenya, long-distance truck drivers (LDTDs) using the Northern Corridor highway have a high prevalence of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) due to their risky sexual networks. However, the spatial distribution of the sexual network locations used by LDTDs is not well understood. Consequently, healthcare stakeholders have found it difficult to provide spatially targeted HIV/STI interventions among LDTDs. Thus, the study sought to establish the spatial distribution of sexual network locations used by LDTDs along the Northern Corridor highway, to inform efficient distribution and use of limited HIV/STI-prevention resources. METHODS A cross-sectional study design was used. The study adopted a systematic sampling technique. 296 LDTDs were interviewed using interviewer-administered questionnaires at the Mlolongo weighbridge in Kenya. The LDTDs listed their history of sexual interactions and highway stopovers used during the week preceding data collection. Geospatial modelling techniques, using R statistical software packages for spatial mapping, were employed. Shapefiles were created and overlaid over a map of Kenya using R statistical software to create maps of sexual networks. RESULTS Forty-two highway stopovers used by LDTDs were spatially distributed along the highway, from the Kenya coast to the Kenya-Uganda border. In general, LDTDs' sexual network hotspots were restricted to the outskirts of major cities along the Northern Corridor highway (Nairobi, Mombasa and Nakuru) as well as the Kenya-Uganda international border. CONCLUSIONS On the Northern Corridor highway, stopovers situated proximal to major urban areas, as well as those at international border points, frequently serve as sexual network hotspots among LDTDs and their sexual partners. Thus, healthcare stakeholders should improve access to HIV/STI-prevention services targeted for LDTDs at the sexual network hotspots identified in this study.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cyrus Mutie
- School of Public Health, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, P.O. Box 62000-00200, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Salome Kairu-Wanyoike
- Meat Training Institute, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Cooperatives, P.O. Box 55-00204, Athi-River, Kenya
| | - Susan Mambo
- School of Public Health, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, P.O. Box 62000-00200, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Reagan Ngoge
- School of Public Health, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, P.O. Box 62000-00200, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - John Gachohi
- School of Public Health, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, P.O. Box 62000-00200, Nairobi, Kenya
- Washington State University, Global Health–Kenya, P.O. Box 72938-00200, Nairobi, Kenya
- Paul G, Allen School of Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman WA99164, USA
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Song J, Okano JT, Ponce J, Busang L, Seipone K, Valdano E, Blower S. The role of migration networks in the development of Botswana's generalized HIV epidemic. eLife 2023; 12:e85435. [PMID: 37665629 PMCID: PMC10476964 DOI: 10.7554/elife.85435] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2022] [Accepted: 08/02/2023] [Indexed: 09/05/2023] Open
Abstract
The majority of people with HIV live in sub-Saharan Africa, where epidemics are generalized. For these epidemics to develop, populations need to be mobile. However, the role of population-level mobility in the development of generalized HIV epidemics has not been studied. Here we do so by studying historical migration data from Botswana, which has one of the most severe generalized HIV epidemics worldwide; HIV prevalence was 21% in 2021. The country reported its first AIDS case in 1985 when it began to rapidly urbanize. We hypothesize that, during the development of Botswana's epidemic, the population was extremely mobile and the country was highly connected by substantial migratory flows. We test this mobility hypothesis by conducting a network analysis using a historical time series (1981-2011) of micro-census data from Botswana. Our results support our hypothesis. We found complex migration networks with very high rates of rural-to-urban, and urban-to-rural, migration: 10% of the population moved annually. Mining towns (where AIDS cases were first reported, and risk behavior was high) were important in-flow and out-flow migration hubs, suggesting that they functioned as 'core groups' for HIV transmission and dissemination. Migration networks could have dispersed HIV throughout Botswana and generated the current hyperendemic epidemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Janet Song
- Center for Biomedical Modeling, Department of Psychiatry and Biobehavioral Sciences, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los AngelesLos AngelesUnited States
| | - Justin T Okano
- Center for Biomedical Modeling, Department of Psychiatry and Biobehavioral Sciences, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los AngelesLos AngelesUnited States
| | - Joan Ponce
- Center for Biomedical Modeling, Department of Psychiatry and Biobehavioral Sciences, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los AngelesLos AngelesUnited States
| | - Lesego Busang
- The African Comprehensive HIV/AIDS Partnerships (ACHAP)GaboroneBotswana
| | - Khumo Seipone
- The African Comprehensive HIV/AIDS Partnerships (ACHAP)GaboroneBotswana
| | - Eugenio Valdano
- Sorbonne Université, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’Epidémiologie et de Santé PubliqueParisFrance
| | - Sally Blower
- Center for Biomedical Modeling, Department of Psychiatry and Biobehavioral Sciences, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los AngelesLos AngelesUnited States
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Dzomba A, Ginsburg C, Kabudula CW, Yorlets RR, Ndagurwa P, Harawa S, Lurie MN, McGarvey ST, Tollman S, Collinson MA, White MJ, Gomez-Olive FX. Epidemiology of chronic multimorbidity and temporary migration in a rural South African community in health transition: A cross-sectional population-based analysis. FRONTIERS IN EPIDEMIOLOGY 2023; 3:1054108. [PMID: 38455922 PMCID: PMC10910947 DOI: 10.3389/fepid.2023.1054108] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2022] [Accepted: 03/03/2023] [Indexed: 03/09/2024]
Abstract
Introduction In sub-Saharan African settings, the increasing non-communicable disease mortality is linked to migration, which disproportionately exposes sub-populations to risk factors for co-occurring HIV and NCDs. Methods We examined the prevalence, patterns, and factors associated with two or more concurrent diagnoses of chronic diseases (i.e., multimorbidity) among temporary within-country migrants. Employing a cross-sectional design, our study sample comprised 2144 residents and non-residents 18-40 years interviewed and with measured biomarkers in 2018 in Wave 1 of the Migrant Health Follow-up Study (MHFUS), drawn from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (AHDSS) in rural north-eastern South Africa. We used modified Poisson regression models to estimate the association between migration status and prevalent chronic multimorbidity conditional on age, sex, education, and healthcare utilisation. Results Overall, 301 participants (14%; 95% CI 12.6-15.6), median age 31 years had chronic multimorbidity. Multimorbidity was more prevalent among non-migrants (14.6%; 95% CI 12.8-16.4) compared to migrants (12.8%; 95% CI 10.3-15.7). Non-migrants also had the greatest burden of dual-overlapping chronic morbidities, such as HIV-obesity 5.7%. Multimorbidity was 2.6 times as prevalent (PR 2.65. 95% CI 2.07-3.39) among women compared to men. Among migrants, men, and individuals with secondary or tertiary education manifested lower prevalence of two or more conditions. Discussion In a rural community with colliding epidemics, we found low but significant multimorbidity driven by a trio of conditions: HIV, hypertension, and obesity. Understanding the multimorbidity burden associated with early adulthood exposures, including potential protective factors (i.e., migration coupled with education), is a critical first step towards improving secondary and tertiary prevention for chronic disease among highly mobile marginalised sub-populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Armstrong Dzomba
- Medical Research Council/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Gauteng Province, South Africa
| | - Carren Ginsburg
- Medical Research Council/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Gauteng Province, South Africa
| | - Chodziwadziwa W. Kabudula
- Medical Research Council/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Gauteng Province, South Africa
| | - Rachel R. Yorlets
- Department of Epidemiology, Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, RI, United States
- Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University, Providence, RI, United States
| | - Pedzisai Ndagurwa
- South African Medical Research Council Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Sadson Harawa
- Medical Research Council/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Gauteng Province, South Africa
| | - Mark N. Lurie
- Department of Epidemiology, Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, RI, United States
- Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University, Providence, RI, United States
- International Health Institute, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Brown University, Providence, RI, United States
| | - Stephen T. McGarvey
- International Health Institute, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Brown University, Providence, RI, United States
- Department of Anthropology, Brown University, Providence, RI, United States
| | - Stephen Tollman
- Medical Research Council/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Gauteng Province, South Africa
| | - Mark A. Collinson
- Medical Research Council/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Gauteng Province, South Africa
- Department of Science and Innovation/ Medical Research Council, South African Population Research Infrastructure Network, Durban, South Africa
| | - Michael J. White
- Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University, Providence, RI, United States
- Department of Sociology, Brown University, Providence, RI, United States
| | - Francesc X. Gomez-Olive
- Medical Research Council/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Gauteng Province, South Africa
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Debusho LK, Bedaso NG. Bayesian Spatial Modelling of HIV Prevalence in Jimma Zone, Ethiopia. Diseases 2023; 11:diseases11010046. [PMID: 36975595 PMCID: PMC10047877 DOI: 10.3390/diseases11010046] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/02/2023] [Revised: 02/28/2023] [Accepted: 03/05/2023] [Indexed: 03/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: Although the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is spatially heterogeneous in Ethiopia, current regional estimates of HIV prevalence hide the epidemic’s heterogeneity. A thorough examination of the prevalence of HIV infection using district-level data could assist to develop HIV prevention strategies. The aims of this study were to examine the spatial clustering of HIV prevalence in Jimma Zone at district level and assess the effects of patient characteristics on the prevalence of HIV infection. Methods: The 8440 files of patients who underwent HIV testing in the 22 Districts of Jimma Zone between September 2018 and August 2019 were the source of data for this study. The global Moran’s index, Getis–Ord Gi* local statistic, and Bayesian hierarchical spatial modelling approach were applied to address the research objectives. Results: Positive spatial autocorrelation was observed in the districts and the local indicators of spatial analysis using the Getis–Ord statistic also identified three districts, namely Agaro, Gomma and Nono Benja, as hotspots, and two districts, namely Mancho and Omo Beyam, as coldspots with 95% and 90% confidence levels, respectively, for HIV prevalence. The results also showed eight patient-related characteristics that were considered in the study were associated with HIV prevalence in the study area. Furthermore, after accounting for these characteristics in the fitted model, there was no spatial clustering of HIV prevalence suggesting the patient characteristics had explained most of the heterogeneity in HIV prevalence in Jimma Zone for the study data. Conclusions: The identification of hotspot districts and the spatial dynamic of HIV infection in Jimma Zone at district level may allow health policymakers in the zone or Oromiya region or at national level to develop geographically specific strategies to prevent HIV transmission. Because clinic register data were used in the study, it is important to use caution when interpreting the results. The results are restricted to Jimma Zone districts and may not be generalizable to Ethiopia or the Oromiya region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Legesse Kassa Debusho
- Department of Statistics, College of Science, Engineering and Technology, University of South Africa, Private Bag X6, Florida 1710, South Africa
- Correspondence:
| | - Nemso Geda Bedaso
- Department of Statistics, College of Natural and Computational Science, Madda Walabu University, Bale Robe P.O. Box 247, Ethiopia
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Wardle J, Bhatia S, Kraemer MUG, Nouvellet P, Cori A. Gaps in mobility data and implications for modelling epidemic spread: A scoping review and simulation study. Epidemics 2023; 42:100666. [PMID: 36689876 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100666] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2022] [Revised: 11/18/2022] [Accepted: 01/06/2023] [Indexed: 01/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Reliable estimates of human mobility are important for understanding the spatial spread of infectious diseases and the effective targeting of control measures. However, when modelling infectious disease dynamics, data on human mobility at an appropriate temporal or spatial resolution are not always available, leading to the common use of model-derived mobility proxies. In this study we reviewed the different data sources and mobility models that have been used to characterise human movement in Africa. We then conducted a simulation study to better understand the implications of using human mobility proxies when predicting the spatial spread and dynamics of infectious diseases. We found major gaps in the availability of empirical measures of human mobility in Africa, leading to mobility proxies being used in place of data. Empirical data on subnational mobility were only available for 17/54 countries, and in most instances, these data characterised long-term movement patterns, which were unsuitable for modelling the spread of pathogens with short generation times (time between infection of a case and their infector). Results from our simulation study demonstrated that using mobility proxies can have a substantial impact on the predicted epidemic dynamics, with complex and non-intuitive biases. In particular, the predicted times and order of epidemic invasion, and the time of epidemic peak in different locations can be underestimated or overestimated, depending on the types of proxies used and the country of interest. Our work underscores the need for regularly updated empirical measures of population movement within and between countries to aid the prevention and control of infectious disease outbreaks. At the same time, there is a need to establish an evidence base to help understand which types of mobility data are most appropriate for describing the spread of emerging infectious diseases in different settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jack Wardle
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK
| | - Sangeeta Bhatia
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK
| | | | - Pierre Nouvellet
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK; School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK
| | - Anne Cori
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK.
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9
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Bahemuka UM, Okimat P, Webb EL, Seeley J, Ssetaala A, Okech B, Oketch B, Kibengo FM, Okello E, Kwena Z, Kuteesa MO, Price MA, Kaleebu P, Grosskurth H, Fast P. Factors Associated with Short and Long Term Mobility and HIV Risk of Women Living in Fishing Communities Around Lake Victoria in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda: A Cross Sectional Survey. AIDS Behav 2023; 27:880-890. [PMID: 36088399 PMCID: PMC9944640 DOI: 10.1007/s10461-022-03824-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/01/2022]
Abstract
Mobility is linked to negative HIV care continuum outcomes. We sought to understand factors associated with short and long term mobility among women in fishing communities in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. From 2018 through 2019 we conducted a cross-sectional survey of women aged 15 years and above, randomly selected from a census of six fishing villages, around Lake Victoria. Data collected included: demographics, risky sexual behaviour on the most recent trip, and travel behaviour in the previous 4 months. Mobility was recorded as any overnight trip outside the participant's village. A two-level multinomial logistic regression model was used to determine the associated factors. A total of 901 participants were enrolled, of whom 645 (71.6%) reported travelling (53.4%; short and 18.2% long term trips). Five factors were associated with long term travel: age, travel purpose, frequency of travel, sexual behaviour while travelling, and destination. Trips made by women aged 46-75 years were less likely to be long term. Long term trips were more common if the trip was to visit, rather than to trade, and more common for women who reported one or two trips rather than three or more trips. Women who made long term trips were more likely to engage in unprotected sex while on a trip. Women who travelled to a regional town/district or another town/district were more likely to take long term trips. The factors associated with travel duration among women living in fishing communities could inform planning of future health care interventions in these communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ubaldo M. Bahemuka
- grid.415861.f0000 0004 1790 6116Medical Research Council/Uganda Virus Research Institute Uganda Research Unit & London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (MRC/UVRI & LSHTM) Uganda Research Unit, P.O. Box 49, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Paul Okimat
- grid.415861.f0000 0004 1790 6116Medical Research Council/Uganda Virus Research Institute Uganda Research Unit & London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (MRC/UVRI & LSHTM) Uganda Research Unit, P.O. Box 49, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Emily L. Webb
- grid.8991.90000 0004 0425 469XLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Janet Seeley
- grid.415861.f0000 0004 1790 6116Medical Research Council/Uganda Virus Research Institute Uganda Research Unit & London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (MRC/UVRI & LSHTM) Uganda Research Unit, P.O. Box 49, Entebbe, Uganda
- grid.8991.90000 0004 0425 469XLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Ali Ssetaala
- grid.415861.f0000 0004 1790 6116UVRI-IAVI HIV Vaccine Program, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Brenda Okech
- grid.415861.f0000 0004 1790 6116UVRI-IAVI HIV Vaccine Program, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Bertha Oketch
- grid.33058.3d0000 0001 0155 5938Kenya Medical Research Institute, KEMRI, Kisumu, Kenya
| | - Freddie M. Kibengo
- grid.415861.f0000 0004 1790 6116Medical Research Council/Uganda Virus Research Institute Uganda Research Unit & London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (MRC/UVRI & LSHTM) Uganda Research Unit, P.O. Box 49, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Elialilia Okello
- grid.452630.60000 0004 8021 6070Mwanza Intervention Trials Unit, Mwanza, Tanzania
| | - Zachary Kwena
- grid.33058.3d0000 0001 0155 5938Kenya Medical Research Institute, KEMRI, Kisumu, Kenya
| | - Monica O. Kuteesa
- grid.420368.b0000 0000 9939 9066International AIDS Vaccine Initiative, New York, USA
| | - Matt A. Price
- grid.420368.b0000 0000 9939 9066International AIDS Vaccine Initiative, New York, USA
- grid.266102.10000 0001 2297 6811University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, USA
| | - Pontiano Kaleebu
- grid.415861.f0000 0004 1790 6116Medical Research Council/Uganda Virus Research Institute Uganda Research Unit & London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (MRC/UVRI & LSHTM) Uganda Research Unit, P.O. Box 49, Entebbe, Uganda
- grid.8991.90000 0004 0425 469XLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Heiner Grosskurth
- grid.8991.90000 0004 0425 469XLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- grid.452630.60000 0004 8021 6070Mwanza Intervention Trials Unit, Mwanza, Tanzania
| | - Pat Fast
- grid.420368.b0000 0000 9939 9066International AIDS Vaccine Initiative, New York, USA
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Yorlets RR, Lurie MN, Ginsburg C, Hogan JW, Joyce NR, Harawa S, Collinson MA, Gómez-Olivé FX, White MJ. Validity of Self-Report for Ascertaining HIV Status Among Circular Migrants and Permanent Residents in South Africa: A Cross-Sectional, Population-Based Analysis. AIDS Behav 2023; 27:919-927. [PMID: 36112260 PMCID: PMC9974592 DOI: 10.1007/s10461-022-03828-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
While expanded HIV testing is needed in South Africa, increasing accurate self-report of HIV status is an essential parallel goal in this highly mobile population. If self-report can ascertain true HIV-positive status, persons with HIV (PWH) could be linked to life-saving care without the existing delays required by producing medical records or undergoing confirmatory testing, which are especially burdensome for the country's high prevalence of circular migrants. We used Wave 1 data from The Migration and Health Follow-Up Study, a representative adult cohort, including circular migrants and permanent residents, randomly sampled from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System in a rural area of Mpumalanga Province. Within the analytic sample (n = 1,918), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of self-report were calculated with dried blood spot (DBS) HIV test results as the standard. Among in-person participants (n = 2,468), 88.8% consented to DBS-HIV testing. HIV prevalence was 25.3%. Sensitivity of self-report was 43.9% (95% CI: 39.5-48.5), PPV was 93.4% (95% CI: 89.5-96.0); specificity was 99.0% (95% CI: 98.3-99.4) and NPV was 83.9% (95% CI: 82.8-84.9). Self-report of an HIV-positive status was predictive of true status for both migrants and permanent residents in this high-prevalence setting. Persons who self-reported as living with HIV were almost always truly positive, supporting a change to clinical protocol to immediately connect persons who say they are HIV-positive to ART and counselling. However, 56% of PWH did not report as HIV-positive, highlighting the imperative to address barriers to disclosure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachel R Yorlets
- Department of Epidemiology, Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, RI, USA.
- Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.
| | - Mark N Lurie
- Department of Epidemiology, Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, RI, USA
- Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA
| | - Carren Ginsburg
- Medical Research Council/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Gauteng province, South Africa
| | - Joseph W Hogan
- Department of Biostatistics, Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, RI, USA
| | - Nina R Joyce
- Department of Epidemiology, Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, RI, USA
- Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA
- Center for Gerontology and Healthcare Research, Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, RI, USA
| | - Sadson Harawa
- Medical Research Council/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Gauteng province, South Africa
| | - Mark A Collinson
- Medical Research Council/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Gauteng province, South Africa
- South African Population Infrastructure Network (SAPRIN), South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), Durban, South Africa
| | - F Xavier Gómez-Olivé
- Medical Research Council/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Gauteng province, South Africa
| | - Michael J White
- Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA
- Medical Research Council/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Gauteng province, South Africa
- Department of Sociology, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA
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11
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Song J, Okano JT, Ponce J, Busang L, Seipone K, Valdano E, Blower S. Population mobility and the development of Botswana's generalized HIV epidemic: a network analysis. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2023:2023.02.01.23285339. [PMID: 36778345 PMCID: PMC9915826 DOI: 10.1101/2023.02.01.23285339] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
The majority of people with HIV live in sub-Saharan Africa, where HIV epidemics are generalized. For these epidemics to develop, populations need to be mobile. However, population-level mobility has not yet been studied in the context of the development of generalized HIV epidemics. Here we do so by studying historical migration data from Botswana which has one of the most severe generalized HIV epidemics worldwide; in 2021, HIV prevalence was 21%. The country reported its first AIDS case in 1985 when it began to rapidly urbanize. We hypothesize that, during the development of Botswana's epidemic, the population was highly mobile and there were substantial urban-to-rural and rural-to-urban migratory flows. We test this hypothesis by conducting a network analysis using a historical time series (1981 to 2011) of micro-census data from Botswana. We found 10% of the population moved their residency annually, complex migration networks connected urban with rural areas, and there were very high rates of rural-to-urban migration. Notably, we also found mining towns were both important in-flow and out-flow migration hubs; consequently, there was a very high turnover of residents in towns. Our results support our hypothesis, and together, provide one explanation for the development of Botswana's generalized epidemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Janet Song
- Center for Biomedical Modeling, Department of Psychiatry and Biobehavioral Sciences, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095
| | - Justin T. Okano
- Center for Biomedical Modeling, Department of Psychiatry and Biobehavioral Sciences, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095
| | - Joan Ponce
- Center for Biomedical Modeling, Department of Psychiatry and Biobehavioral Sciences, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095
| | - Lesego Busang
- The African Comprehensive HIV/AIDS Partnerships (ACHAP), Gaborone, Botswana
| | - Khumo Seipone
- The African Comprehensive HIV/AIDS Partnerships (ACHAP), Gaborone, Botswana
| | - Eugenio Valdano
- Sorbonne Université, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, IPLESP, F75012, Paris, France
| | - Sally Blower
- Center for Biomedical Modeling, Department of Psychiatry and Biobehavioral Sciences, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095
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12
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Nakamanya S, Okello ES, Kwena ZA, Nanyonjo G, Bahemuka UM, Kibengo FM, Ssetaala A, Bukusi EA, Kapiga S, Fast PE, Seeley J. Social networks, mobility, and HIV risk among women in the fishing communities of Lake Victoria. BMC Womens Health 2022; 22:555. [PMID: 36578062 PMCID: PMC9798550 DOI: 10.1186/s12905-022-02144-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2022] [Accepted: 12/22/2022] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Population mobility is a demonstrated barrier to reducing HIV incidence. A clear understanding of social networks and their influence on mobility among women in the fishing communities of Lake Victoria may contribute to tailoring effective interventions that suit the needs of these mobile women. METHODS A cross-sectional qualitative methods study was conducted to understand mobility patterns among women resident and or working in fishing communities of Lake Victoria in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. The study was conducted in six fishing communities from March 2018 to June 2019. The communities were purposively selected, based on population size (1000 people or more) and HIV prevalence of > 15% among women aged 18 years or older who had lived in the fishing community for at least six months. In-depth interviews were conducted with 24 key informants and 72 women from the sites in the three countries. Questions focused on women's social networks and other factors that fuelled or facilitated women's mobility as well as challenges they faced due to mobility. Data analysis followed a thematic framework approach. RESULTS Different social groupings/networks existed among women in the fishing communities of Lake Victoria. These included female sex workers, women fish processors/traders, women bar workers/owners, restaurant workers, and family networks. Networks encouraged mobility, supporting finding work opportunities, but also increased sexual risks through partner changes. The benefits of networks included information sharing, financial support, and group protection, especially against violence. CONCLUSION Social networks and groupings among women in the fishing communities of Lake Victoria could be useful in tailoring HIV prevention and HIV care interventions to suit the needs of these highly mobile populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah Nakamanya
- Medical Research Council/Uganda Virus Research Institute and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (MRC/UVRI and LSHTM), Uganda Research Unit, P.O. Box 49, Entebbe, Uganda.
| | - Elialilia S Okello
- Mwanza Intervention Trials Unit (MITU), National Institute for Medical Research, Mwanza, Tanzania
| | - Zachary A Kwena
- Research Care and Training Program (RCTP), Centre for Microbiology Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), Nairobi, Kenya
| | | | - Ubaldo M Bahemuka
- Medical Research Council/Uganda Virus Research Institute and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (MRC/UVRI and LSHTM), Uganda Research Unit, P.O. Box 49, Entebbe, Uganda
| | - Freddie M Kibengo
- Medical Research Council/Uganda Virus Research Institute and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (MRC/UVRI and LSHTM), Uganda Research Unit, P.O. Box 49, Entebbe, Uganda
| | | | - Elizabeth A Bukusi
- Research Care and Training Program (RCTP), Centre for Microbiology Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Saidi Kapiga
- Mwanza Intervention Trials Unit (MITU), National Institute for Medical Research, Mwanza, Tanzania
| | - Patricia E Fast
- International AIDS Vaccine Initiative (IAVI), New York, USA
- Pediatric Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, USA
| | - Janet Seeley
- Medical Research Council/Uganda Virus Research Institute and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (MRC/UVRI and LSHTM), Uganda Research Unit, P.O. Box 49, Entebbe, Uganda
- Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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13
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Lindsay BR, Mwango L, Toeque M, Malupande SL, Nkhuwa E, Moonga CN, Chilambe A, Sakala H, Kafunda I, Olowski P, Olufunso A, Okuku J, Kancheya N, Mumba D, Hachaambwa L, Sheneberger R, Blanco N, Lavoie M, Claassen CW. Peer community health workers improve HIV testing and ART linkage among key populations in Zambia: retrospective observational results from the Z-CHECK project, 2019-2020. J Int AIDS Soc 2022; 25:e26030. [PMID: 36317821 PMCID: PMC9624072 DOI: 10.1002/jia2.26030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/15/2022] [Accepted: 10/12/2022] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Zambia has made tremendous progress towards HIV epidemic control; however, gaps remain among key populations (KPs), such as female sex workers (FSWs), men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID) and people in prisons and enclosed settings due to cultural, social and legal barriers. The University of Maryland, Baltimore Zambia Community HIV Epidemic Control for Key Populations (Z-CHECK) project aimed to improve HIV case-finding, linkage and treatment adherence at the community level for KPs in Zambia. We describe Z-CHECK strategies and examine HIV positivity yield and antiretroviral therapy (ART) linkage among KPs to inform ongoing programme improvement. METHODS Z-CHECK recruited, trained and deployed peer community health workers (CHWs) for KP groups, with ongoing mentorship in community engagement. CHWs offered HIV testing in safe spaces and escorted newly HIV-diagnosed clients for same-day ART initiation. Z-CHECK also reached out to KP community leaders and gatekeepers for KP mobilization and trained healthcare workers (HCWs) on KP services and sensitivity. We conducted a retrospective observational review of routinely collected aggregate data for KPs aged ≥15 years at high risk for HIV transmission across five districts in Zambia from January 2019 to December 2020. RESULTS Z-CHECK provided HIV testing for 9211 KPs, of whom 2227 were HIV positive (positivity yield, 24%). Among these, 1901 (85%) were linked to ART; linkage for MSM, FSW, PWID and people in prisons and enclosed settings was 95%, 89%, 86% and 65%, respectively. Programme strategies that contributed to high positivity yield and linkage included the use of peer KP CHWs, social network testing strategies and opportunities for same-day ART initiation. Challenges to programme implementation included stigma and discrimination among HCWs, as well as KP CHW attrition, which may be explained by high mobility. CONCLUSIONS Peer CHWs were highly effective at reaching KP communities, identifying persons living with HIV and linking them to care. Engaging KP community gatekeepers resulted in high diffusion of health messages and increased access to health resources. The mobility of CHWs and HCWs is a challenge for programme implementation. Innovative interventions are needed to support PWID and people in prisons and enclosed settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brianna R. Lindsay
- Center for International Health Education and BiosecurityMGIC‐an affiliate of the University of Maryland BaltimoreLusakaZambia,Center for International HealthEducation, and BiosecurityUniversity of Maryland School of MedicineBaltimoreMarylandUSA
| | | | - Mona‐Gekanju Toeque
- Center for International HealthEducation, and BiosecurityUniversity of Maryland School of MedicineBaltimoreMarylandUSA
| | | | | | | | | | - Henry Sakala
- Center for International Health Education and BiosecurityMGIC‐an affiliate of the University of Maryland BaltimoreLusakaZambia
| | - Ina Kafunda
- Center for International Health Education and BiosecurityMGIC‐an affiliate of the University of Maryland BaltimoreLusakaZambia
| | - Pawel Olowski
- Center for International Health Education and BiosecurityMGIC‐an affiliate of the University of Maryland BaltimoreLusakaZambia
| | - Adebayo Olufunso
- Center for International Health Education and BiosecurityMGIC‐an affiliate of the University of Maryland BaltimoreLusakaZambia
| | - Jackson Okuku
- U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ZambiaLusakaZambia
| | - Nzali Kancheya
- U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ZambiaLusakaZambia
| | | | - Lottie Hachaambwa
- Center for International HealthEducation, and BiosecurityUniversity of Maryland School of MedicineBaltimoreMarylandUSA,Ciheb ZambiaLusakaZambia
| | - Robb Sheneberger
- Center for International Health Education and BiosecurityMGIC‐an affiliate of the University of Maryland BaltimoreLusakaZambia,Center for International HealthEducation, and BiosecurityUniversity of Maryland School of MedicineBaltimoreMarylandUSA
| | - Natalia Blanco
- Center for International HealthEducation, and BiosecurityUniversity of Maryland School of MedicineBaltimoreMarylandUSA
| | - Marie‐Claude Lavoie
- Center for International HealthEducation, and BiosecurityUniversity of Maryland School of MedicineBaltimoreMarylandUSA
| | - Cassidy W. Claassen
- Center for International Health Education and BiosecurityMGIC‐an affiliate of the University of Maryland BaltimoreLusakaZambia,Center for International HealthEducation, and BiosecurityUniversity of Maryland School of MedicineBaltimoreMarylandUSA
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14
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Dzomba A, Kim HY, Tomita A, Vandormael A, Govender K, Tanser F. Predictors of migration in an HIV hyper-endemic rural South African community: evidence from a population-based cohort (2005-2017). BMC Public Health 2022; 22:1141. [PMID: 35672845 PMCID: PMC9175358 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-13526-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2021] [Accepted: 05/23/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Globally, South Africa hosts the highest number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) and the unique legacy of internal labour migration continues to be a major driver of the regional epidemic, interrupting treatment-as-prevention efforts. The study examined levels, trends, and predictors of migration in rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, using population-based surveillance data from 2005 through 2017. We followed 69 604 adult participants aged 15-49 years and recorded their migration events (i.e., out-migration from the surveillance area) in 423 038 person-years over 525 397 observations. Multiple failure Cox-regression models were used to measure the risk of migration by socio-demographic factors: age, sex, educational status, marital status, HIV, and community antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage. Overall, 69% of the population cohort experienced at least one migration event during the follow-up period. The average incidence rate of migration was 9.96 events and 13.23 events per 100 person-years in women and men, respectively. Migration rates declined from 2005 to 2008 then peaked in 2012 for both women and men. Adjusting for other covariates, the risk of migration was 3.4-times higher among young women aged 20-24 years compared to those aged ≥ 40 years (adjusted Hazard Ratio [aHR] = 3.37, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 3:19-3.57), and 2.9-times higher among young men aged 20-24 years compared to those aged ≥ 40 years (aHR = 2.86, 95% CI:2.69-3.04). There was a 9% and 27% decrease in risk of migration among both women (aHR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.83 - 0.99) and men (aHR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.66 - 0.82) respectively per every 1% increase in community ART coverage. Young unmarried women including those living with HIV, migrated at a magnitude similar to that of their male counterparts, and lowered as ART coverage increased over time, reflecting the role of improved HIV services across space in reducing out-migration. A deeper understanding of the characteristics of a migrating population provides critical information towards identifying and addressing gaps in the HIV prevention and care continuum in an era of high mobility.
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Affiliation(s)
- Armstrong Dzomba
- Discipline of Public Health Medicine, Africa Health Research Institute(AHRI), University of KwaZulu-Natal, KwaZulu-Natal Province, K-RITH Tower Building, 719 Umbilo Road, Private Bag X7, Congella, Durban, South Africa.
- KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
- Medical Research Council (MRC)/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), University of the Witwatersrand, Acornhoek, South Africa.
| | - Hae-Young Kim
- Discipline of Public Health Medicine, Africa Health Research Institute(AHRI), University of KwaZulu-Natal, KwaZulu-Natal Province, K-RITH Tower Building, 719 Umbilo Road, Private Bag X7, Congella, Durban, South Africa
- Department of Population Health, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Andrew Tomita
- Centre for Rural Health, School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Alain Vandormael
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
- Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, USA
| | - Kaymarlin Govender
- Health Economics and HIV and AIDS Research Division (HEARD), University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Frank Tanser
- Discipline of Public Health Medicine, Africa Health Research Institute(AHRI), University of KwaZulu-Natal, KwaZulu-Natal Province, K-RITH Tower Building, 719 Umbilo Road, Private Bag X7, Congella, Durban, South Africa
- Centre for Rural Health, School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- Lincoln Institute for Health, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, LN6 7TS, UK
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15
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Murnane PM, Gandhi M, Bacchetti P, Getahun M, Gutin SA, Okochi H, Maeri I, Eyul P, Omoding D, Okiring J, Tallerico R, Louie A, Akullian A, Kamya MR, Bukusi EA, Charlebois ED, Camlin CS. Distinct forms of migration and mobility are differentially associated with HIV treatment adherence. AIDS 2022; 36:1021-1030. [PMID: 35652674 PMCID: PMC9178682 DOI: 10.1097/qad.0000000000003213] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE We examined whether human mobility was associated with antiretroviral treatment adherence, measured via antiretroviral hair concentrations. DESIGN This is a cross-sectional analysis of adults on antiretroviral treatment in East Africa at baseline in an observational cohort study. METHODS Participants reported recent mobility (overnight travel) and histories of migration (changes of residence), including reasons, frequency/duration, and locations. Hair antiretroviral concentrations were analyzed using validated methods. We estimated associations between mobility and antiretroviral concentrations via linear regression adjusted for age, sex, region, years on treatment. RESULTS Among 383 participants, half were women and the median age was 40. Among men, 25% reported recent work-related mobility, 30% nonwork mobility, and 11% migrated in the past year (mostly across district boundaries); among women, 6 and 57% reported work-related and nonwork mobility, respectively, and 8% recently migrated (mostly within district). Those reporting work-related trips 2 nights or less had 72% higher hair antiretroviral levels (P = 0.02) than those who did not travel for work; in contrast, nonwork mobility (any duration, vs. none) was associated with 24% lower levels (P = 0.06). Intra-district migrations were associated with 59% lower antiretroviral levels than nonmigrants (P = 0.003) while inter-district migrations were not (27% higher, P = 0.40). CONCLUSION We found that localized/intra-district migration and nonwork travel-more common among women-were associated with lower adherence, potentially reflecting care interruptions or staying with family/friends unaware of the participants' status. In contrast, short work-related trips-more common among men-were associated with higher adherence, perhaps reflecting higher income. Adherence interventions may require tailoring by sex and forms of mobility.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pamela M Murnane
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics
- Institute for Global Health Sciences
| | - Monica Gandhi
- Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases and Global Medicine, Department of Medicine
- UCSF-Hair Analytical Laboratory
| | | | - Monica Getahun
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology & Reproductive Sciences
| | - Sarah A Gutin
- Center for AIDS Prevention Studies, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Hideaki Okochi
- Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases and Global Medicine, Department of Medicine
- UCSF-Hair Analytical Laboratory
| | - Irene Maeri
- Centre For Microbiology Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Patrick Eyul
- Infectious Diseases Research Collaboration, Makerere University
| | - Daniel Omoding
- Infectious Diseases Research Collaboration, Makerere University
| | - Jaffer Okiring
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, School of Medicine, Makerere University College of Health Sciences, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Regina Tallerico
- Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases and Global Medicine, Department of Medicine
- UCSF-Hair Analytical Laboratory
| | - Alexander Louie
- Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases and Global Medicine, Department of Medicine
- UCSF-Hair Analytical Laboratory
| | - Adam Akullian
- Institute for Disease Modeling, Bellevue, Washington, USA
| | - Moses R Kamya
- Infectious Diseases Research Collaboration, Makerere University
- School of Medicine, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Elizabeth A Bukusi
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology & Reproductive Sciences
- Centre For Microbiology Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Edwin D Charlebois
- Center for AIDS Prevention Studies, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Carol S Camlin
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology & Reproductive Sciences
- Center for AIDS Prevention Studies, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA
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16
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Kim HY, Cuadros D, Wilkinson E, Junqueira DM, Oliveira TD, Tanser F. The geography and inter-community configuration of new sexual partnership formation in a rural South African population over fourteen years (2003-2016). PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 2:e0000055. [PMID: 36962292 PMCID: PMC10022024 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000055] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/18/2021] [Accepted: 11/22/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Understanding spatial configuration of sexual network structure is critical for effective use of HIV preventative interventions in a community. However, this has never been described at the population level for any setting in sub-Saharan Africa. We constructed the comprehensive geospatial sexual network among new heterosexual partnerships in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. In the Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI)'s population-based surveillance, we identified stable sexual partnerships among individuals (≥15 years) from 2003 to 2016. Sexual partnerships and residency were recorded via household surveys (every 4-6 months). We geolocated residents and migration events and mapped the geospatial linkages of sexual partners at the start of sexual partnerships. In a grid composed by 108 cells (nodes; 3kmx3km per cell) covering the surveillance area (438km2), we calculated the degree of connectivity and centrality of the nodes and examined their association with HIV prevalence and incidence per cell. Of 2401 new sexual partnerships, 21% (n = 495) had both partners living within the surveillance area at the start of sexual partnerships, and 76% (376/495) were linked to the geographic HIV cluster with high HIV prevalence identified in a peri-urban community. Overall, 57 nodes had at least one connection to another node. The nodes in the peri-urban cluster had higher connectivity (mean = 19, range: 9-32), compared to outside the cluster (6, range: 1-16). The node's degree of connectivity was positively associated with HIV prevalence of the cell (Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.67; p <0.005). The peri-urban cluster contained nine of the 10 nodes that composed of a single large central module in the community. About 17% of sexual partnerships (n = 421) were formed between a resident and a non-resident partner who out-migrated. Most of these non-resident partners lived in KwaZulu-Natal (86.7%), followed by Gauteng (9.7%), and the median distance between a resident and a non-resident partner was 50.1km (IQR: 23.2-177.2). We found that the peri-urban HIV cluster served as the highly connected central node of the network for sexual partnership formation. The network was also connected beyond the surveillance area across South Africa. Understanding spatial sexual network can improve the provision of spatially targeted and effective interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hae-Young Kim
- Department of Population Health, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, United States of America
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Diego Cuadros
- Department of Geography and Geographic Information Science, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, United States of America
| | - Eduan Wilkinson
- KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Dennis M Junqueira
- KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Tulio de Oliveira
- KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Frank Tanser
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- Lincoln International Institute for Rural Health, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, United Kingdom
- School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
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17
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Okano JT, Busang L, Seipone K, Valdano E, Blower S. The potential impact of country-level migration networks on HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa: the case of Botswana. Lancet HIV 2021; 8:e787-e792. [PMID: 34774183 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3018(21)00267-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2021] [Revised: 09/10/2021] [Accepted: 09/20/2021] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
Generalised HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa show substantial geographical variation in prevalence, which is considered when designing epidemic control strategies. We hypothesise that the migratory behaviour of the general population of countries in sub-Saharan Africa could have a substantial effect on HIV epidemics and challenge the elimination effort. To test this hypothesis, we used census data from 2017 to identify, construct, and visualise the migration network of the population of Botswana, which has one of the most severe HIV epidemics worldwide. We found that, over 12 months, approximately 14% of the population moved their residency from one district to another. Four types of migration occurred: urban-to-urban, rural-to-urban, urban-to-rural, and rural-to-rural. Migration is leading to a marked geographical redistribution of the population, causing high rates of population turnover in some areas, and further concentrating the population in urban areas. The migration network could potentially be having a substantial effect on the HIV epidemic of Botswana: changing the location of high-transmission areas, generating cross-country transmission corridors, creating source-sink dynamics, and undermining control strategies. Large-scale migration networks could present a considerable challenge to eliminating HIV in Botswana and in other countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and should be considered when designing epidemic control strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Justin T Okano
- Center for Biomedical Modeling, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Lesego Busang
- The African Comprehensive HIV/AIDS Partnerships, Gaborone, Botswana
| | - Khumo Seipone
- The African Comprehensive HIV/AIDS Partnerships, Gaborone, Botswana
| | - Eugenio Valdano
- Center for Biomedical Modeling, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Sally Blower
- Center for Biomedical Modeling, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
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18
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Low A, Sachathep K, Rutherford G, Nitschke AM, Wolkon A, Banda K, Miller LA, Solmo C, Jackson K, Patel H, McCracken S, Findley S, Mutenda N. Migration in Namibia and its association with HIV acquisition and treatment outcomes. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0256865. [PMID: 34473757 PMCID: PMC8412347 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0256865] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2021] [Accepted: 08/17/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In the 21st century, understanding how population migration impacts human health is critical. Namibia has high migration rates and HIV prevalence, but little is known about how these intersect. We examined the association between migration and HIV-related outcomes using data from the 2017 Namibia Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (NAMPHIA). METHODS AND FINDINGS The NAMPHIA survey selected a nationally representative sample of adults in 2017. All adults aged 15-64 years were invited to complete an interview and home-based HIV test. Recent infection (<130 days) was measured using HIV-1 LAg avidity combined with viral load (>1000 copies/mL) and antiretroviral analyte data. Awareness of HIV status and antiretroviral use were based on self-report and/or detectable antiretrovirals in blood. Viremia was defined as having a viral load ≥1000 copies/mL, including all participants in the denominator regardless of serostatus. We generated community viremia values as a weighted proportion at the EA level, excluding those classified as recently infected. Significant migrants were those who had lived outside their current region or away from home >one month in the past three years. Recent cross-community in-migrants were those who had moved to the community <two years ago. Separate analyses were done to compare significant migrants to non-migrants and recent cross-community in-migrants to those who in-migrated >two years ago to determine the association of migration and timing with recent infection or viral load suppression (VLS). All proportions are weighted. Of eligible adults, we had HIV results and migration data on 9,625 (83.9%) of 11,474 women and 7,291 (73.0%) of 9,990 men. Most respondents (62.5%) reported significant migration. Of cross-community in-migrants, 15.3% were recent. HIV prevalence was 12.6% and did not differ by migration status. Population VLS was 77.4%. Recent cross-community in-migration was associated with recent HIV infection (aOR: 4.01, 95% CI 0.99-16.22) after adjusting for community viremia. Significant migration (aOR 0.73, 95% CI: 0.55-0.97) and recent cross-community in-migration (aOR 0.57, 95% CI: 0.35-0.92) were associated with lower VLS, primarily due to lack of awareness of HIV infection. The study was limited by lack of precise data on trajectory of migration. CONCLUSIONS Despite a high population-level VLS, Namibia still has migrant populations that are not accessing effective treatment for HIV. Targeting migrants with effective prevention and testing programs in communities with viremia could enable further epidemic control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea Low
- ICAP at Columbia University, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Karam Sachathep
- ICAP at Columbia University, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States of America
| | - George Rutherford
- Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, CA, United States of America
| | | | - Adam Wolkon
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Windhoek, Namibia
| | - Karen Banda
- Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, CA, United States of America
| | | | - Chelsea Solmo
- ICAP at Columbia University, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States of America
| | - Keisha Jackson
- Division of Global HIV and Tuberculosis, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Center for Global Health, Atlanta, GA, United States of America
| | - Hetal Patel
- Division of Global HIV and Tuberculosis, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Center for Global Health, Atlanta, GA, United States of America
| | - Stephen McCracken
- Division of Global HIV and Tuberculosis, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Center for Global Health, Atlanta, GA, United States of America
| | - Sally Findley
- ICAP at Columbia University, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States of America
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19
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Claassen CW, Mumba D, Njelesani M, Nyimbili D, Mwango LK, Mwitumwa M, Mubanga E, Mulenga LB, Chisenga T, Nichols BE, Hendrickson C, Chitembo L, Okuku J, O'Bra H. Initial implementation of PrEP in Zambia: health policy development and service delivery scale-up. BMJ Open 2021; 11:e047017. [PMID: 34244265 PMCID: PMC8273462 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-047017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Daily pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention is highly effective, but not yet widely deployed in sub-Saharan Africa. We describe how Zambia developed PrEP health policy and then successfully implemented national PrEP service delivery. POLICY DEVELOPMENT Zambia introduced PrEP as a key strategy for HIV prevention in 2016, and established a National PrEP Task Force to lead policy advocacy and development. The Task Force was composed of government representatives, regulatory agencies, international donors, implementation partners and civil society organisations. Following an implementation pilot, PrEP was rolled out nationally using risk-based criteria alongside a national HIV prevention campaign. NATIONAL SCALE-UP In the first year of implementation, ending September 2018, 3626 persons initiated PrEP. By September 2019, the number of people starting PrEP increased by over sixfold to 23 327 persons at 728 sites across all ten Zambian provinces. In the first 2 years, 26 953 clients initiated PrEP in Zambia, of whom 31% were from key and priority populations. Continuation remains low at 25% and 11% at 6 and 12 months, respectively. LESSONS LEARNT Risk-based criteria for PrEP ensures access to those most in need of HIV prevention. Healthcare worker training in PrEP service delivery and health needs of key and priority populations is crucial. PrEP expansion into primary healthcare clinics and community education is required to reach full potential. Additional work is needed to understand and address low PrEP continuation. Finally, a task force of key stakeholders can rapidly develop and implement health policy, which may serve as a model for countries seeking to implement PrEP.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cassidy W Claassen
- Center for International Health, Education, and Biosecurity, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
- Adult Infectious Diseases Center, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Zambia School of Medicine, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Daliso Mumba
- National HIV/AIDS/STI/TB Council, Lusaka, Zambia
- Ministry of Health, Lusaka, Zambia
| | | | - Derrick Nyimbili
- Chemonics Global Health Supply Chain Program-Procurement and Supply Management, Lusaka, Zambia
| | | | - Mundia Mwitumwa
- Adult Infectious Diseases Center, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Zambia School of Medicine, Lusaka, Zambia
| | | | - Lloyd B Mulenga
- Adult Infectious Diseases Center, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Zambia School of Medicine, Lusaka, Zambia
- Ministry of Health, Lusaka, Zambia
| | | | - Brooke E Nichols
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office, Wits University, Johannesburg-Braamfontein, South Africa
| | - Cheryl Hendrickson
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office, Wits University, Johannesburg-Braamfontein, South Africa
| | | | - Jackson Okuku
- U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Heidi O'Bra
- U.S. Agency for International Development, Lusaka, Zambia
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20
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Gareta D, Baisley K, Mngomezulu T, Smit T, Khoza T, Nxumalo S, Dreyer J, Dube S, Majozi N, Ording-Jesperson G, Ehlers E, Harling G, Shahmanesh M, Siedner M, Hanekom W, Herbst K. Cohort Profile Update: Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS) and population-based HIV survey. Int J Epidemiol 2021; 50:33-34. [PMID: 33437994 PMCID: PMC7938501 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyaa264] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 12/14/2020] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Dickman Gareta
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | - Kathy Baisley
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.,London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London, UK
| | | | - Theresa Smit
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | - Thandeka Khoza
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | | | - Jaco Dreyer
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | - Sweetness Dube
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | | | | | - Eugene Ehlers
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | - Guy Harling
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.,Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.,MRC/Wits Rural Public Health & Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.,Department of Epidemiology & Harvard Centre for Population and Development Studies, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Maryam Shahmanesh
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.,Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Mark Siedner
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.,Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.,Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Willem Hanekom
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | - Kobus Herbst
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.,SAPRIN, South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa
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21
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Simmons SS. A longitudinal multilevel analysis of the evermigrated population subjective HIV infection expectation in Malawi. Psychol Health 2021; 37:890-902. [PMID: 33879011 DOI: 10.1080/08870446.2021.1910697] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/21/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The primary purpose of this study is to assess the variance in the effects of factors influencing ever migrated Malawian population's subjective HIV infection expectation. DESIGN Using data from the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH) survey (1998-2010), 7805 ever migrated Malawian adults were selected for the study. Summary statistics, logistic regression and longitudinal multi-level models were fitted for the study. A binary logistic regression was used to estimate the direction and magnitude of the associations between the variables selected for the study Five multilevel models with random intercepts and coefficients nominal response were fitted. RESULTS The study revealed that sexual behaviours had the most significant effect on ever migrated Malawian's subjective HIV infection expectation. All metrics showed that the conditional growth model had the most signficant outcome. The addition of time and other variables as predictors had a significant effect on the conditional growth model. CONCLUSION Interventions designed to decrease the spread of HIV should target sexual behaviours and widespread testing among the ever migrated population to reduce subjective HIV infection thoughts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sally Sonia Simmons
- Department of Social Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.,Institute of Demography, National Research University-Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
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22
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Ginsburg C, Collinson MA, Gómez-Olivé FX, Gross M, Harawa S, Lurie MN, Mukondwa K, Pheiffer CF, Tollman S, Wang R, White MJ. Internal migration and health in South Africa: determinants of healthcare utilisation in a young adult cohort. BMC Public Health 2021; 21:554. [PMID: 33743663 PMCID: PMC7981972 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-021-10590-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2020] [Accepted: 03/08/2021] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Background In South Africa, human geographic mobility is high as people engage in both permanent and temporary relocation, predominantly from rural to urban areas. Such mobility can compromise healthcare access and utilisation. The objective of this paper is to explore healthcare utilisation and its determinants in a cohort of internal migrants and permanent residents (non-migrants) originating from the Agincourt sub-district in South Africa’s rural northeast. Methods A 5-year cohort study of 3800 individuals aged 18 to 40 commenced in 2017. Baseline data have been collected from 1764 Agincourt residents and 1334 temporary, mostly urban-based, migrants, and are analysed using bivariate analyses, logistic and multinomial regression models, and propensity score matching analysis. Results Health service utilisation differs sharply by migrant status and sex. Among those with a chronic condition, migrants had 0.33 times the odds of non-migrants to have consulted a health service in the preceding year, and males had 0.32 times the odds of females of having used health services. Of those who utilised services, migration status was further associated with the type of healthcare utilised, with 97% of non-migrant rural residents having accessed government facilities, while large proportions of migrants (31%) utilised private health services or consulted traditional healers (25%) in migrant destinations. The multinomial logistic regression analysis indicated that, in the presence of controls, migrants had 8.12 the relative risk of non-migrants for utilising private healthcare (versus the government-services-only reference category), and 2.40 the relative risk of non-migrants for using a combination of public and private sector facilities. These findings of differential utilisation hold under statistical adjustment for relevant controls and for underlying propensity to migrate. Conclusions Migrants and non-migrants in the study population in South Africa were found to utilise health services differently, both in overall use and in the type of healthcare consulted. The study helps improve upon the limited stock of knowledge on how migrants interface with healthcare systems in low and middle-income country settings. Findings can assist in guiding policies and programmes to be directed more effectively to the populations most in need, and to drive locally adapted approaches to universal health coverage. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-10590-6.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carren Ginsburg
- Medical Research Council/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, 27 St Andrews Road, Parktown, Johannesburg, 2193, South Africa.
| | - Mark A Collinson
- Medical Research Council/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, 27 St Andrews Road, Parktown, Johannesburg, 2193, South Africa.,Department of Science and Innovation/ Medical Research Council, South African Population Research Infrastructure Network, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - F Xavier Gómez-Olivé
- Medical Research Council/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, 27 St Andrews Road, Parktown, Johannesburg, 2193, South Africa
| | - Mark Gross
- Population Studies and Training Centre, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA
| | - Sadson Harawa
- Medical Research Council/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, 27 St Andrews Road, Parktown, Johannesburg, 2193, South Africa
| | - Mark N Lurie
- Population Studies and Training Centre, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.,Department of Epidemiology, Brown University, School of Public Health, Providence, RI, USA
| | - Keith Mukondwa
- Medical Research Council/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, 27 St Andrews Road, Parktown, Johannesburg, 2193, South Africa
| | - Chantel F Pheiffer
- Population Studies and Training Centre, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA
| | - Stephen Tollman
- Medical Research Council/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, 27 St Andrews Road, Parktown, Johannesburg, 2193, South Africa.,Department of Science and Innovation/ Medical Research Council, South African Population Research Infrastructure Network, Johannesburg, South Africa.,INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana
| | - Rebecca Wang
- Population Studies and Training Centre, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA
| | - Michael J White
- Medical Research Council/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, 27 St Andrews Road, Parktown, Johannesburg, 2193, South Africa.,Population Studies and Training Centre, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA
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23
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Tanser FC, Kim HY, Mathenjwa T, Shahmanesh M, Seeley J, Matthews P, Wyke S, McGrath N, Adeagbo O, Sartorius B, Yapa HM, Zuma T, Zeitlin A, Blandford A, Dobra A, Bärnighausen T. Home-Based Intervention to Test and Start (HITS): a community-randomized controlled trial to increase HIV testing uptake among men in rural South Africa. J Int AIDS Soc 2021; 24:e25665. [PMID: 33586911 PMCID: PMC7883477 DOI: 10.1002/jia2.25665] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/10/2020] [Revised: 11/30/2020] [Accepted: 12/23/2020] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction The uptake of HIV testing and linkage to care remains low among men, contributing to high HIV incidence in women in South Africa. We conducted the “Home‐Based Intervention to Test and Start” (HITS) in a 2x2 factorial cluster randomized controlled trial in one of the World’s largest ongoing HIV cohorts in rural South Africa aimed at enhancing both intrinsic and extrinsic motivations for HIV testing. Methods Between February and December 2018, in the uMkhanyakude district of KwaZulu‐Natal, we randomly assigned 45 communities (clusters) (n = 13,838 residents) to one of the four arms: (i) financial incentives for home‐based HIV testing and linkage to care (R50 [$3] food voucher each); (ii) male‐targeted HIV‐specific decision support application, called EPIC‐HIV; (iii) both financial incentives and male‐targeted HIV‐specific decision support application and (iv) standard of care (SoC). EPIC‐HIV was developed to encourage and serve as an intrinsic motivator for HIV testing and linkage to care, and individually offered to men via a tablet device. Financial incentives were offered to both men and women. Here we report the effect of the interventions on uptake of home‐based HIV testing among men. Intention‐to‐treat (ITT) analysis was performed using modified Poisson regression with adjustment for clustering of standard errors at the cluster levels. Results Among all 13,838 men ≥ 15 years living in the 45 communities, the overall population coverage during a single round of home‐based HIV testing was 20.7%. The uptake of HIV testing was 27.5% (683/2481) in the financial incentives arm, 17.1% (433/2534) in the EPIC‐HIV arm, 26.8% (568/2120) in the arm receiving both interventions and 17.8% in the SoC arm. The probability of HIV testing increased substantially by 55% in the financial incentives arm (risk ratio (RR)=1.55, 95% CI: 1.31 to 1.82, p < 0.001) and 51% in the arm receiving both interventions (RR = 1.51, 95% CI: 1.21 to 1.87 p < 0.001), compared to men in the SoC arm. The probability of HIV testing did not significantly differ in the EPIC‐HIV arm (RR = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.76 to 1.20, p = 0.70). Conclusions The provision of a small financial incentive acted as a powerful extrinsic motivator substantially increasing the uptake of home‐based HIV testing among men in rural South Africa. In contrast, the counselling and testing application which was designed to encourage and serve as an intrinsic motivator to test for HIV did not increase the uptake of home‐based testing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Frank C Tanser
- Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, South Africa.,Lincoln International Institute for Rural Health, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, United Kingdom.,School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.,Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Hae-Young Kim
- Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, South Africa.,Department of Population Health, New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA.,KwaZulu-Natal Innovation and Sequencing Platform, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | | | - Maryam Shahmanesh
- Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, South Africa.,Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Janet Seeley
- Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, South Africa.,London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | | | - Sally Wyke
- University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Nuala McGrath
- Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, South Africa.,University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
| | - Oluwafemi Adeagbo
- Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, South Africa.,Department of Sociology, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa.,Department of Health Promotion, Education and Behaviour, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA
| | - Benn Sartorius
- School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.,London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Handurugamage Manisha Yapa
- Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, South Africa.,The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | | | - Anya Zeitlin
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Ann Blandford
- University College London Interaction Centre, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | | | - Till Bärnighausen
- Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, South Africa.,Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
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Cassels S, Mwenda KM, Biney AAE, Jenness SM. Is It the Timing? Short-Term Mobility and Coital Frequency in Agbogbloshie, Ghana. ARCHIVES OF SEXUAL BEHAVIOR 2021; 50:589-600. [PMID: 32989638 PMCID: PMC7889649 DOI: 10.1007/s10508-020-01815-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2019] [Revised: 07/31/2020] [Accepted: 08/01/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Short-term mobility is often associated with increased sexual risk behavior. Mobile individuals often have higher rates of sexual risk behavior compared to non-mobile individuals, but the reasons why are not clear. Using monthly retrospective panel data from 202 men and 282 women in Agbogbloshie, Ghana, we tested whether short-term mobility was associated with changes in coital frequency, and whether the association was due to the act of travel in the given month (e.g., enabling higher risk behavior), the reason for travel, or an individual's travel propensity at other times in the year. Overnight travel specifically to visit family or friends, or for education, health, or other reasons, was associated with increased coital frequency for men. However, men with higher travel propensities had lower overall coital frequency and the act of traveling enabled more sex only for the most frequent male travelers. Men who seldom traveled had much higher coital frequency, but the act of traveling was not associated with additional sex acts. For women, travel for education, health, or other reasons increased coital frequency. Occasional female travelers had slightly more sex acts compared to non-mobile women, and the act of traveling for these women was associated with slight increases in coital frequency, supporting the enabling hypothesis. Highly mobile women had fewer sex acts per month on average. Our findings suggest that mobility characteristics measured on a broad temporal scale, as well as the reason for mobility, are important to understand the relationship between short-term mobility and sexual behavior.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susan Cassels
- Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106-4060, USA.
| | - Kevin M Mwenda
- Spatial Structures in the Social Sciences, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA
| | - Adriana A E Biney
- Regional Institute for Population Studies, University of Ghana, Legon, Accra, Ghana
| | - Samuel M Jenness
- Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
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Moraes TMD, Fernandes WAA, Paes CJO, Ferreira GRON, Gonçalves LHT, Botelho EP. Análise espaço-temporal da epidemia do HIV em idosos num estado amazônico brasileiro. REVISTA BRASILEIRA DE GERIATRIA E GERONTOLOGIA 2021. [DOI: 10.1590/1981-22562021024.210007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Resumo Objetivo Analisar espaço-temporalmente a incidência do vírus da imunodeficiência humana (HIV) e da síndrome da imunodeficiência adquirida (Aids) entre idosos no estado do Pará, Brasil, nos anos de 2007 a 2018. Método Estudo ecológico utilizando notificações de casos de HIV/Aids em idosos provenientes do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação. A taxa de incidência do HIV/Aids foi analisada temporalmente pelo método de joinpoint e espacialmente pelas técnicas de autocorrelação de Moran, de varredura e de regressão espacial. Resultados 2.639 notificações de HIV/Aids foram elegíveis para o estudo, sendo 1.725 (65,4%) em homens e 914 (34,6%) em mulheres. No período do estudo houve aumento de 2.422,5% na taxa de incidência de HIV nos homens e de 1.929,8% nas mulheres, sendo o oposto, observado para a taxa de incidência de Aids que aumentou 77,6% nas mulheres e 40,7% nos homens. O método joinpoint revelou tendência crescente para a taxa de incidência de HIV (APC=30%, p=0,00) e de estabilidade para taxa de incidência de Aids (APC=3,0%, p=0,2). Os municípios mais impactados pela epidemia do HIV foram os do meridional sudeste paraense com moderada associação (R2=0,65) ao seu crescimento populacional. A análise de varredura espaço-temporal apontou Belém como zona de risco para o HIV/Aids (RR=3,93, p=0,00; 2017-2018) Conclusão Enquanto a incidência de Aids em idosos paraenses permaneceu estável no período de 2007 a 2018, a de HIV tendeu a crescer. O maior impacto da epidemia ocorreu nos municípios do sudeste paraense com associação ao crescimento populacional, e Belém apresentou risco espaço-temporal para o HIV/Aids.
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Plymoth M, Sanders EJ, Van Der Elst EM, Medstrand P, Tesfaye F, Winqvist N, Balcha T, Björkman P. Socio-economic condition and lack of virological suppression among adults and adolescents receiving antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0244066. [PMID: 33320900 PMCID: PMC7737988 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0244066] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2020] [Accepted: 12/02/2020] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction The potential impact of socio-economic condition on virological suppression during antiretroviral treatment (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa is largely unknown. In this case-control study, we compared socio-economic factors among Ethiopian ART recipients with lack of virological suppression to those with undetectable viral load (VL). Methods Cases (VL>1000 copies/ml) and controls (VL<150 copies/ml) aged ≥15years, with ART for >6 months and with available VL results within the last 3 months, were identified from registries at public ART clinics in Central Ethiopia. Questionnaire-based interviews on socio-economic characteristics, health condition and transmission risk behavior were conducted. Univariate variables associated with VL>1000 copies/ml (p<0.25) were added to a multivariable logistic regression model. Results Among 307 participants (155 cases, 152 controls), 61.2% were female, and the median age was 38 years (IQR 32–46). Median HIV-RNA load among cases was 6,904 copies/ml (IQR 2,843–26,789). Compared to controls, cases were younger (median 36 vs. 39 years; p = 0.004), more likely to be male (46.5% vs. 30.9%; p = 0.005) and had lower pre-ART CD4 cell counts (170 vs. 220 cells/μl; p = 0.009). In multivariable analysis of urban residents (94.8%), VL>1000 copies/ml was associated with lower relative wealth (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.98; 95% CI 1.49–5.94; p = 0.016), geographic work mobility (aOR 6.27, 95% CI 1.82–21.6; p = 0.016), younger age (aOR 0.94 [year], 95% CI 0.91–0.98; p = 0.011), longer duration of ART (aOR 1.19 [year], 95% CI 1.07–1.33; p = 0.020), and suboptimal (aOR 3.83, 95% CI 1.33–10.2; p = 0.048) or poor self-perceived wellbeing (aOR 9.75, 95% CI 2.85–33.4; p = 0.012), after correction for multiple comparisons. High-risk sexual behavior and substance use was not associated with lack of virological suppression. Conclusion Geographic work mobility and lower relative wealth were associated with lack of virological suppression among Ethiopian ART recipients in this predominantly urban population. These characteristics indicate increased risk of treatment failure and the need for targeted interventions for persons with these risk factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martin Plymoth
- Clinical Infection Medicine, Department of Translational Medicine, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden
- * E-mail: ,
| | - Eduard J. Sanders
- Centre for Geographic Medicine Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), Kilifi, Kenya
- Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Oxford, Headington, United Kingdom
| | - Elise M. Van Der Elst
- Centre for Geographic Medicine Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Patrik Medstrand
- Clinical Virology, Department of Translational Medicine, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden
| | - Fregenet Tesfaye
- Clinical Infection Medicine, Department of Translational Medicine, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden
| | - Niclas Winqvist
- Clinical Infection Medicine, Department of Translational Medicine, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden
| | - Taye Balcha
- Clinical Infection Medicine, Department of Translational Medicine, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden
| | - Per Björkman
- Clinical Infection Medicine, Department of Translational Medicine, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden
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Vandormael A, Cuadros D, Dobra A, Bärnighausen T, Tanser F. HIV incidence declines in a rural South African population: a G-imputation approach for inference. BMC Public Health 2020; 20:1205. [PMID: 32762668 PMCID: PMC7409400 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-020-09193-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2019] [Accepted: 07/01/2020] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Ad hoc assumptions about the unobserved infection event, which is known only to occur between the latest-negative and earliest-positive test dates, can lead to biased HIV incidence rate estimates. Using a G-imputation approach, we infer the infection dates from covariate data to estimate the HIV incidence rate in a hyper-endemic South African setting. METHODS A large demographic surveillance system has annually tested a cohort of HIV-uninfected participants living in the KwaZulu-Natal province. Using this data, we estimated a cumulative baseline hazard function and the effects of time-dependent covariates on the interval censored infection dates. For each HIV-positive participant in the cohort, we derived a cumulative distribution function and sampled multiple infection dates conditional on the unique covariate values. We right censored the data at the imputed dates, calculated the annual HIV incidence rate per 100 person-years, and used Rubin's rules to obtain the 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS A total of 20,011 uninfected individuals with a repeat HIV test participated in the incidence cohort between 2005 and 2018. We observed 2,603 infections per 58,769 person-years of follow-up among women and 845 infections per 41,178 person-years of follow-up among men. Conditional on age and circumcision status (men only), the female HIV incidence rate declined by 25%, from 5.0 to 3.7 infections per 100 person-years between 2014 and 2018. During this period, the HIV incidence rate among men declined from 2.1 to 1.1 infections per 100 person-years-a reduction of 49%. We observed similar reductions in male and female HIV incidence conditional on condom-use, marital status, urban residential status, migration history, and the HIV prevalence in the surrounding community. CONCLUSION We have followed participants in one of the world's largest and longest running HIV cohorts to estimate long-term trends in the population-wide incidence of infection. Using a G-imputation approach, we present further evidence for HIV incidence rate declines in this hyper-endemic South African setting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alain Vandormael
- Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI), Durban, South Africa. .,Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, 130.3 Im Neuenheimer Feld, Heidelberg, 69115, Germany. .,KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN), Durban, South Africa.
| | - Diego Cuadros
- Department of Geography and Geographic Information Science, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, USA
| | - Adrian Dobra
- Department of Statistics, Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, and Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
| | - Till Bärnighausen
- Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI), Durban, South Africa.,Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, 130.3 Im Neuenheimer Feld, Heidelberg, 69115, Germany.,Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, USA
| | - Frank Tanser
- Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI), Durban, South Africa.,Lincoln International Institute for Rural Health, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, UK.,School of Nursing and Public Health, UKZN, Durban, South Africa.,Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa
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28
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Mobility and its Effects on HIV Acquisition and Treatment Engagement: Recent Theoretical and Empirical Advances. Curr HIV/AIDS Rep 2020; 16:314-323. [PMID: 31256348 DOI: 10.1007/s11904-019-00457-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW We reviewed literature across multiple disciplines to describe issues with the measurement of population mobility in HIV research and to summarize evidence of causal pathways linking mobility to HIV acquisition risks and treatment engagement, with a focus on sub-Saharan Africa. RECENT FINDINGS While the literature on mobility and HIV remains hampered by problems and inconsistency in measures of mobility, the recent research reveals a turn towards a greater attentiveness to measurement and gender. Theoretical and heuristic models for the study of mobility and HIV acquisition and treatment outcomes have been published, but few studies have used longitudinal designs with clear ascertainment of exposures and outcomes for measurement of causal pathways. Notwithstanding these limitations, evidence continues to accumulate that mobility is linked to higher HIV incidence, and that it challenges optimal treatment engagement. Gender continues to be important: while men are more mobile than women, women's mobility particularly heightens their HIV acquisition risks. Recent large-scale efforts to find, test, and treat the individuals in communities who are most at risk of sustaining local HIV transmission have been severely challenged by mobility. Novel interventions, policies, and health systems improvements are urgently needed to fully engage mobile individuals in HIV care and prevention. Interventions targeting the HIV prevention and care needs of mobile populations remain few in number and urgently needed.
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Tanser F, Kim HY, Vandormael A, Iwuji C, Bärnighausen T. Opportunities and Challenges in HIV Treatment as Prevention Research: Results from the ANRS 12249 Cluster-Randomized Trial and Associated Population Cohort. Curr HIV/AIDS Rep 2020; 17:97-108. [PMID: 32072468 PMCID: PMC7072051 DOI: 10.1007/s11904-020-00487-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW The ANRS 12249 treatment as prevention (TasP) trial investigated the impact of a universal test and treat (UTT) approach on reducing HIV incidence in one of the regions of the world most severely affected by the HIV epidemic-KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We summarize key findings from this trial as well as recent findings from controlled studies conducted in the linked population cohort quantifying the long-term effects of expanding ART on directly measured HIV incidence (2004-2017). RECENT FINDINGS The ANRS TasP trial did not-and could not-demonstrate a reduction in HIV incidence, because the offer of UTT in the intervention communities did not increase ART coverage and population viral suppression compared to the standard of care in the control communities. Ten controlled studies from the linked population cohort-including several quasi-experimental study designs-exploit heterogeneity in ART exposure to show a consistent and substantial impact of expanding provision of ART and population viral suppression on reduction in HIV incidence at the couple, household, community, and population levels. In this setting, all of the evidence from large, population-based studies (inclusive of the ANRS TasP trial) is remarkably coherent and consistent-i.e., higher ART coverage and population viral suppression were repeatedly associated with clear, measurable decreases in HIV incidence. Thus, the expanded provision of ART has plausibly contributed in a major way toward the dramatic 43% decline in population-level HIV incidence in this typical rural African population. The outcome of the ANRS TasP trial constitutes a powerful null finding with important insights for overcoming implementation challenges in the population delivery of ART. This finding does not imply lack of ART effectiveness in blocking onward transmission of HIV nor its inability to reduce HIV incidence. Rather, it demonstrates that large increases in ART coverage over current levels will require health systems innovations to attract people living with HIV in early stages of the disease to participate in HIV treatment. Such innovations and new approaches are required for the true potential of UTT to be realized.
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Affiliation(s)
- Frank Tanser
- Lincoln Institute for Health, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, LN6 7TS, UK.
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.
- School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
| | - Hae-Young Kim
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
- Department of Population Health, New York University School of Medicine, New York, USA
- KwaZulu-Natal Innovation and Sequencing Platform, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | - Alain Vandormael
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
- School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- KwaZulu-Natal Innovation and Sequencing Platform, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Collins Iwuji
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
- Brighton and Sussex Medical School, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK
| | - Till Bärnighausen
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
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Batidzirai JM, Manda SOM, Mwambi HG, Tanser F. Discrete Survival Time Constructions for Studying Marital Formation and Dissolution in Rural South Africa. Front Psychol 2020; 11:154. [PMID: 32132944 PMCID: PMC7040195 DOI: 10.3389/fpsyg.2020.00154] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2019] [Accepted: 01/21/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction: Marriage formation and dissolution are important life-course events which impact psychological well-being and health of adults and children experiencing the events. Family studies have usually concentrated on analyzing single transitions including Never Married to Married and Married to Divorced. This does not allow understanding and interrogation of dynamics of these life changing events and their effects on individuals and their families. The objective of this study was to assess determinants associated with transitions between and within marital states in South Africa. Methods: The population-based data available for this study consists of over 55, 000 subjects representing over 340, 000 person-years exposure from the Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI) in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. It was collected from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2016. Multilevel multinomial, binary and competing risks regression models were used to model marital state occupation, transitions between marital states as well as investigate determinants of marital dissolution, respectively. Results: Between the years 2006 and 2007, a subject was more likely to be married than never married when compared to years 2004 − 2005. After 2007, subjects were less likely to be married than never married and the trend reduced over the years up to 2016 [with OR=0.86, CI=(0.78; 0.94), OR=0.71, CI=(0.64; 0.78), OR=0.60, CI=(0.54; 0.67), OR=0.50, CI=(0.44; 0.56), and OR = 0.43, CI = (0.38; 0.48)] for periods 2008 − 2009, 2010 − 2011, 2012 − 2013, 2014 − 2015, and 2016, respectively. In 2008 − 2009, subjects were more likely to experience a marital dissolution than in the period 2004 − 2005 and the trend slightly reduces from 2010 until 2013 [OR=24.49, CI=(5.53; 108.37)]. Raising age at first sexual debut was found to be inversely associated with a marital dissolution [OR = 0.97;CI = (0.95; 0.99)]. Highly educated subjects were more likely to stay in one marital state than those who never went to school [OR=6.43, CI=(4.89; 8.47), OR=18.86, CI=(1.14; 53.31), and OR=2.96, CI=(1.96; 4.46) for being married, separated and widowed, respectively, among subjects with tertiary education]. As the age at first marriage increased, subjects became less likely to experience a marital separation [OR = 0.06, CI = (0.00; 1.11), OR = 0.05, CI = (0.00; 0.91), and OR = 0.04, CI = (0.00; 0.76) for subjects who entered a first marriage at ages 18 − 22, 23 − 29, and 30 − 40, respectively]. Conclusion: The study found that marrying at later ages is associated with a lower rate of marital dissolution while more educated subjects tend to stay longer in one marital state. Sexual debut at later ages was associated with a lower likelihood of experiencing a marital dissolution. There could, however, be some factors that are not accounted for in the model that may lead to heterogeneity in these dynamics in our model specification which are captured by the random effects in the model. Nonetheless, we may postulate that existing programs that encourage delay in onset of sexual activity for HIV risk reduction for example, may also have a positive impact on lowering rates of marital dissolution, thus ultimately improving psychological and physical health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jesca M Batidzirai
- School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa
| | - Samuel O M Manda
- School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa.,Biostatistics Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Pretoria, South Africa.,Department of Statistics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Henry G Mwambi
- School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa
| | - Frank Tanser
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.,Lincoln Institute for Health, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, United Kingdom.,School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
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31
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Chen YC, Dobra A. Measuring human activity spaces from GPS data with density ranking and summary curves. Ann Appl Stat 2020. [DOI: 10.1214/19-aoas1311] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
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32
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Edwards JK, Arimi P, Ssengooba F, Mulholland G, Markiewicz M, Bukusi EA, Orikiiriza JT, Virkud A, Weir S. The HIV care continuum among resident and non-resident populations found in venues in East Africa cross-border areas. J Int AIDS Soc 2020; 22:e25226. [PMID: 30675984 PMCID: PMC6344908 DOI: 10.1002/jia2.25226] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2018] [Accepted: 12/17/2018] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction HIV care and treatment in cross‐border areas in East Africa face challenges perhaps not seen to the same extent in other geographic areas, particularly for mobile and migrant populations. Here, we estimate the proportion of people with HIV found in these cross‐border areas in each stage of the HIV care and treatment cascade, including the proportion who knows their status, the proportion on treatment and the proportion virally suppressed. Methods Participants (n = 11,410) working or socializing in public places in selected East Africa cross border areas were recruited between June 2016 and February 2017 using the Priorities for Local AIDS Control Efforts method and administered a behavioural survey and rapid HIV test. This approach was designed to recruit a stratified random sample of people found in public spaces or venues in each cross border area. For participants testing positive for HIV, viral load was measured from dried blood spots. The proportion in each step of the cascade was estimated using inverse probability weights to account for the sampling design and informative HIV test refusals. Estimates are reported separately for residents of the cross border areas and non‐residents found in those areas. Results Overall, 43% of participants with HIV found in cross‐border areas knew their status, 87% of those participants were on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and 80% of participants on ART were virally suppressed. About 20% of people with HIV found in cross border areas were sampled outside their subdistrict or subcounty of residence. While both resident and non‐resident individuals who knew their status were likely to be on ART (85% and 96% respectively), people on ART recruited outside their area of residence were less likely to be suppressed (64% suppressed; 95% CI: 43, 81) compared to residents (84% suppressed; 95% CI: 75, 93). Conclusions People living in or travelling through cross‐border areas may face barriers in learning their HIV status. Moreover, while non‐residents were more likely to be on treatment than residents, they were less likely to be suppressed, suggesting gaps in continuity of care for people in East Africa travelling outside their area of residence despite timely initiation of treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessie K Edwards
- Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
| | - Peter Arimi
- U.S. Agency for International Development, Kenya/East Africa Regional Mission, Nairobi, Kenya
| | | | - Grace Mulholland
- Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
| | - Milissa Markiewicz
- MEASURE Evaluation, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
| | - Elizabeth A Bukusi
- Centre for Microbiology Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Judy T Orikiiriza
- Rwanda Military Hospital, Kigali, Rwanda.,Infectious Diseases Institute, College of Health Sciences, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Arti Virkud
- Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
| | - Sharon Weir
- Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA.,MEASURE Evaluation, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
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Okano JT, Sharp K, Valdano E, Palk L, Blower S. HIV transmission and source-sink dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa. Lancet HIV 2020; 7:e209-e214. [PMID: 32066532 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3018(19)30407-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2019] [Revised: 10/17/2019] [Accepted: 10/31/2019] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
Multiple phylogenetic studies of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa have shown that mobility-driven transmission frequently occurs: many communities export and import strains. Mobility-driven transmission can result in source-sink dynamics: one community can sustain a micro-epidemic in another community in which transmission is too low to be self-sustaining. In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number (R0) is used to specify the sustainability threshold. R0 represents the average number of secondary infections generated by one infected individual in a community in which everyone is susceptible. If R0 is greater than 1, transmission is high enough to sustain an epidemic; if R0 is less than 1, it is not. Here, we discuss the conditions that are needed (in terms of R0) for source-sink transmission dynamics to occur in generalised HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa, present an example of where these conditions could occur (ie, Namibia), and discuss the necessity of considering mobility-driven transmission when designing control strategies. Additionally, we discuss the need for a new generation of HIV transmission models that are more realistic than the current models. The new models should reflect not only geographical variation in epidemiology and demography, but also the spatial-temporal complexity of population-level movement patterns.
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Affiliation(s)
- Justin T Okano
- Center for Biomedical Modeling, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Katie Sharp
- Center for Biomedical Modeling, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Eugenio Valdano
- Center for Biomedical Modeling, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Laurence Palk
- Center for Biomedical Modeling, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Sally Blower
- Center for Biomedical Modeling, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
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Declines in HIV incidence among men and women in a South African population-based cohort. Nat Commun 2019; 10:5482. [PMID: 31792217 PMCID: PMC6889466 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-13473-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 83] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2019] [Accepted: 11/08/2019] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Over the past decade, there has been a massive scale-up of primary and secondary prevention services to reduce the population-wide incidence of HIV. However, the impact of these services on HIV incidence has not been demonstrated using a prospectively followed, population-based cohort from South Africa—the country with the world’s highest rate of new infections. To quantify HIV incidence trends in a hyperendemic population, we tested a cohort of 22,239 uninfected participants over 92,877 person-years of observation. We report a 43% decline in the overall incidence rate between 2012 and 2017, from 4.0 to 2.3 seroconversion events per 100 person-years. Men experienced an earlier and larger incidence decline than women (59% vs. 37% reduction), which is consistent with male circumcision scale-up and higher levels of female antiretroviral therapy coverage. Additional efforts are needed to get more men onto consistent, suppressive treatment so that new HIV infections can be reduced among women. Here, the authors investigate the outcome of prevention services scale-up on HIV incidence in a South African large population-based HIV surveillance cohort with over a decade of follow-up and associate a 43% reduction in incidence to earlier male medical circumcision and increased levels of antiretroviral therapy coverage.
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Birdthistle I, Tanton C, Tomita A, de Graaf K, Schaffnit SB, Tanser F, Slaymaker E. Recent levels and trends in HIV incidence rates among adolescent girls and young women in ten high-prevalence African countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Glob Health 2019; 7:e1521-e1540. [PMID: 31607465 PMCID: PMC7025003 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(19)30410-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 105] [Impact Index Per Article: 21.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2017] [Revised: 07/01/2019] [Accepted: 08/13/2019] [Indexed: 01/02/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The roll-out of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has changed contexts of HIV risk, but the influence on HIV incidence among young women is not clear. We aimed to summarise direct estimates of HIV incidence among adolescent girls and young women since ART and before large investments in targeted prevention for those in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS We did a systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, Global Health, and CINAHL for studies reporting HIV incidence data from serological samples collected among females aged 15-24 years in ten countries (Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) that were selected for DREAMS investment in 2015. We only included articles published in English. Our main outcome was to summarise recent levels and trends in HIV incidence estimates collected between 2005 and 2015, published or received from study authors, by age and sex, and pooled by region. FINDINGS 51 studies were identified from nine of the ten DREAMS countries; no eligible studies from Lesotho were identified. Directly observed HIV incidence rates were lowest among females aged 13-19 years in Kumi, Uganda (0·38 cases per 100 person-years); and directly observed HIV incidence rates were highest in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa (7·79 per 100 person-years among females aged 15-19 years, and 8·63 in those aged 20-24 years), among fishing communities in Uganda (12·40 per 100 person-years in females aged 15-19 years and 4·70 in those aged 20-24 years), and among female sex workers aged 18-24 years in South Africa (13·20 per 100 person-years) and Zimbabwe (10·80). In pooled rates from the general population studies, the greatest sex differentials were in the youngest age groups-ie, females aged 15-19 years compared with male peers in both southern African (pooled relative risk 5·94, 95% CI 3·39-10·44) and eastern African countries (3·22, 1·51-6·87), and not significantly different among those aged 25-29 years in either region. Incidence often peaked earlier (during teenage years) among high-risk groups compared with general populations. Since 2005, HIV incidence among adolescent girls and young women declined in Rakai (Uganda) and Manicaland (Zimbabwe), and also declined among female sex workers in Kenya, but not in the highest-risk communities in South Africa and Uganda. INTERPRETATION Few sources of direct estimates of HIV incidence exist in high-burden countries and trend analyses with disaggregated data for age and sex are rare but indicate recent declines among adolescent girls and young women. In some of the highest-risk settings, however, little evidence exists to suggest ART availability and other efforts slowed transmission by 2016. Despite wide geographical diversity in absolute levels of incidence in adolescent girls and young women, risk relative to males persisted in all settings, with the greatest sex differentials in the youngest age groups. To end new infections among the growing population of adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa, prevention programmes must address gender inequalities driving excessive risk among adolescent girls. FUNDING This work was conducted as part of a planning grant funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isolde Birdthistle
- Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
| | - Clare Tanton
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Andrew Tomita
- Centre for Rural Health, School of Nursing and Public Health, and KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Kristen de Graaf
- Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Susan B Schaffnit
- Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Frank Tanser
- Africa Health Research Institute, Africa Centre Building, Mtubatuba, South Africa
| | - Emma Slaymaker
- Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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Blower S, Okano JT. Precision public health and HIV in Africa. THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2019; 19:1050-1052. [PMID: 31559952 PMCID: PMC7269130 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(19)30474-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2019] [Accepted: 07/30/2019] [Indexed: 01/16/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Sally Blower
- Center for Biomedical Modeling, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA.
| | - Justin T Okano
- Center for Biomedical Modeling, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
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Low A, Thin K, Davia S, Mantell J, Koto M, McCracken S, Ramphalla P, Maile L, Ahmed N, Patel H, Parekh B, Fida N, Schwitters A, Frederix K. Correlates of HIV infection in adolescent girls and young women in Lesotho: results from a population-based survey. Lancet HIV 2019; 6:e613-e622. [PMID: 31422056 PMCID: PMC6829164 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3018(19)30183-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2018] [Revised: 05/03/2019] [Accepted: 05/20/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND HIV acquisition remains high among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW, aged 15-24 years) in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to estimate prevalence and incidence of HIV in AGYW and to identify correlates of HIV infection by using data from the Lesotho Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (LePHIA). METHODS LePHIA was a nationally representative survey of adults and children based on a multistage cluster sampling method with random selection of enumeration areas and households. All adults aged 15 years and older who had slept in the household the night before were eligible for participation; participants completed an interview and HIV testing. We estimated incidence with the HIV-1 limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay combined with viral load and examined the association between demographic and behavioural variables (including characteristics of cohabitating mothers and sexual partners, when available) and prevalence and incidence among AGYW using logistic regression, incorporating survey weights. FINDINGS We interviewed 8824 households, including 2358 AGYW who were tested for HIV infection. Weighted HIV prevalence was 11·1% (95% CI 9·7-12·5) in the overall population (273 of 2358 AGYW), 5·7% (4·1-7·2) in adolescent girls aged 15-19 years (64 of 1156), and 16·7% (14·4-19·0) in women aged 20-24 years (209 of 1212). Annualised HIV incidence was 1·8% (0·8-2·8). Correlates of prevalent infection include reporting a history of anal sex (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3·08, 1·11-8·57), having lived outside Lesotho in the past year (1·86, 1·01-3·42), having a partner suspected or known to be HIV positive (11·7, 6·0-22·5), and having two or more lifetime sexual partners (1·84, 1·21-2·78, for 2-3 lifetime sexual partners; 2·44, 1·45-4·08, for ≥4 lifetime sexual partners). For the 570 AGYW living with their mothers, maternal education was negatively associated with HIV prevalence in their daughters (aOR 0·36, 0·15-0·82, per increase in level attended). For AGYW with a cohabitating partner, the factors associated with AGYW infection were partner age (OR 4·54, 1·30-15·80, for partners aged 35-49 years, although the OR was no longer significant when adjusted for HIV status of partner), HIV status (aOR 11·22, 4·05-31·05), lack of viral load suppression (OR 0·16, 0·04-0·66), and partner employment in the past year (aOR 3·41, 1·12-10·42). INTERPRETATION The findings confirm the importance of improving the treatment cascade in male partners and targeting preventive interventions to AGYW who are at increased risk. A regional approach to prevention could mitigate the effect of migration on transnational spread of HIV. FUNDING President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea Low
- ICAP at Columbia University, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
| | - Kyaw Thin
- Lesotho Ministry of Health, Maseru, Lesotho
| | - Stefania Davia
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Maseru, Lesotho
| | - Joanne Mantell
- HIV Center for Clinical and Behavioral Studies, Division of Gender, Sexuality and Health, New York State Psychiatric Institute and Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | | | - Stephen McCracken
- US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Center for Global Health, Division of HIV/AIDS, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | | | - Nahima Ahmed
- ICAP at Columbia University, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Hetal Patel
- US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Center for Global Health, Division of HIV/AIDS, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Bharat Parekh
- US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Center for Global Health, Division of HIV/AIDS, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Neway Fida
- US Agency for International Development Southern Africa Regional HIV/AIDS Program, Pretoria, South Africa
| | | | - Koen Frederix
- ICAP in Lesotho, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, Maseru, Lesotho
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Ferrand RA. Men, migration, mothers, and HIV risk in adolescent girls. Lancet HIV 2019; 6:e565-e566. [PMID: 31422057 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3018(19)30192-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/03/2019] [Accepted: 06/05/2019] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Rashida A Ferrand
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; Biomedical Research and Training Institute, Harare, Zimbabwe.
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Selinger C, Dimitrov DT, Welkhoff PA, Bershteyn A. The future of a partially effective HIV vaccine: assessing limitations at the population level. Int J Public Health 2019; 64:957-964. [PMID: 30982082 PMCID: PMC6614161 DOI: 10.1007/s00038-019-01234-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2018] [Revised: 03/02/2019] [Accepted: 03/12/2019] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Mathematical models have unanimously predicted that a first-generation HIV vaccine would be useful and cost-effective to roll out, but that its overall impact would be insufficient to reverse the epidemic. Here, we explore what factors contribute most to limiting the impact of such a vaccine. METHODS Ranging from a theoretical ideal to a more realistic regimen, mirroring the one used in the currently ongoing trial in South Africa (HVTN 702), we model a nested hierarchy of vaccine attributes such as speed of scale-up, efficacy, durability, and return rates for booster doses. RESULTS The predominant reasons leading to a substantial loss of vaccine impact on the HIV epidemic are the time required to scale up mass vaccination, limited durability, and waning of efficacy. CONCLUSIONS A first-generation partially effective vaccine would primarily serve as an intermediate milestone, furnishing correlates of immunity and platforms that could serve to accelerate future development of a highly effective, durable, and scalable next-generation vaccine capable of reversing the HIV epidemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christian Selinger
- Institute for Disease Modeling, 3150 139th Ave SE, Bellevue, WA 98005 USA
| | - Dobromir T. Dimitrov
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, 1100 Fairview Ave N, Seattle, WA 98109 USA
| | - Philip A. Welkhoff
- Institute for Disease Modeling, 3150 139th Ave SE, Bellevue, WA 98005 USA
| | - Anna Bershteyn
- Institute for Disease Modeling, 3150 139th Ave SE, Bellevue, WA 98005 USA
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Ramjee G, Sartorius B, Morris N, Wand H, Reddy T, Yssel JD, Tanser F. A decade of sustained geographic spread of HIV infections among women in Durban, South Africa. BMC Infect Dis 2019; 19:500. [PMID: 31174475 PMCID: PMC6555962 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-019-4080-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/02/2018] [Accepted: 05/13/2019] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Fine scale geospatial analysis of HIV infection patterns can be used to facilitate geographically targeted interventions. Our objective was to use the geospatial technology to map age and time standardized HIV incidence rates over a period of 10 years to identify communities at high risk of HIV in the greater Durban area. Methods HIV incidence rates from 7557 South African women enrolled in five community-based HIV prevention trials (2002–2012) were mapped using participant household global positioning system (GPS) coordinates. Age and period standardized HIV incidence rates were calculated for 43 recruitment clusters across greater Durban. Bayesian conditional autoregressive areal spatial regression (CAR) was used to identify significant patterns and clustering of new HIV infections in recruitment communities. Results The total person-time in the cohort was 9093.93 years and 613 seroconversions were observed. The overall crude HIV incidence rate across all communities was 6·74 per 100PY (95% CI: 6·22–7·30). 95% of the clusters had HIV incidence rates greater than 3 per 100PY. The CAR analysis identified six communities with significantly high HIV incidence. Estimated relative risks for these clusters ranged from 1.34 to 1.70. Consistent with these results, age standardized HIV incidence rates were also highest in these clusters and estimated to be 10 or more per 100 PY. Compared to women 35+ years old younger women were more likely to reside in the highest incidence areas (aOR: 1·51, 95% CI: 1·06–2·15; aOR: 1.59, 95% CI: 1·19–2·14 and aOR: 1·62, 95% CI: 1·2–2·18 for < 20, 20–24, 25–29 years old respectively). Partnership factors (2+ sex partners and being unmarried/not cohabiting) were also more common in the highest incidence clusters (aOR 1.48, 95% CI: 1.25–1.75 and aOR 1.54, 95% CI: 1.28–1.84 respectively). Conclusion Fine geospatial analysis showed a continuous, unrelenting, hyper HIV epidemic in most of the greater Durban region with six communities characterised by particularly high levels of HIV incidence. The results motivate for comprehensive community-based HIV prevention approaches including expanded access to PrEP. In addition, a higher concentration of HIV related services is required in the highest risk communities to effectively reach the most vulnerable populations. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-4080-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gita Ramjee
- HIV Prevention Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, 123 Jan Hofmeyr Road, Westville, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, 3630, South Africa. .,Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. .,School of Medicine, Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Benn Sartorius
- School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Kwazulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Natashia Morris
- Biostatistics Unit: GIS, South African Medical Research Council, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | - Handan Wand
- Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Kensington, NSW, 2052, Australia
| | - Tarylee Reddy
- Biostatistics Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | - Justin D Yssel
- HIV Prevention Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, 123 Jan Hofmeyr Road, Westville, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, 3630, South Africa
| | - Frank Tanser
- School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Kwazulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.,Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa.,Research Department of Infection & Population Health, University College London, London, UK.,Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa - CAPRISA, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, Congella, South Africa
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Dobra A, Bärnighausen T, Vandormael A, Tanser F. A method for statistical analysis of repeated residential movements to link human mobility and HIV acquisition. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0217284. [PMID: 31166973 PMCID: PMC6550382 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0217284] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2018] [Accepted: 05/08/2019] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
We propose a method for analyzing repeated residential movements based on graphical loglinear models. This method allows an explicit representation of residential presence and absence patterns from several areas without defining mobility measures. We make use of our method to analyze data from one of the most comprehensive demographic surveillance sites in Africa that is characterized by high adult HIV prevalence, high levels of poverty and unemployment and frequent residential changes. Between 2004 and 2016, residential changes were recorded for 8,857 men over 35,500.01 person-years, and for 12,158 women over 57,945.35 person-years. These individuals were HIV negative at baseline. Over the study duration, there were a total of 806 HIV seroconversions in men, and 2,458 HIV seroconversions in women. Our method indicates that establishing a residence outside the rural study area is a strong predictor of HIV seroconversion in men (OR = 2.003, 95% CI = [1.718,2.332]), but not in women. Residing inside the rural study area in a single or in multiple locations is a less significant risk factor for HIV acquisition in both men and women compared to moving outside the rural study area.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adrian Dobra
- Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Till Bärnighausen
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Medical Faculty and University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, United States of America
- Africa Health Research Institute,KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | - Alain Vandormael
- Africa Health Research Institute,KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
- School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Frank Tanser
- Africa Health Research Institute,KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
- School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- Research Department of Infection & Population Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom
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Effects of Migration on Risky Sexual Behavior and HIV Acquisition in South Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis, 2000-2017. AIDS Behav 2019; 23:1396-1430. [PMID: 30547333 DOI: 10.1007/s10461-018-2367-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
While human mobility has been implicated in fueling the HIV epidemic in South Africa, the link between migration and HIV has not been systematically reviewed and quantified. We conducted a systematic review of the role of migration in HIV risk acquisition and sexual behaviour based on 29 studies published between 2000 and 2017. Furthermore, we performed a meta-analysis of the association between migration and HIV risk acquisition in four of the studies that used HIV incidence as an outcome measure. The systematic review results show that HIV acquisition and risky sexual behavior were more prevalent among both male and female migrants compared to their non-migrant counterparts. The meta-analysis results demonstrate that migration was significantly associated with increased HIV acquisition risk (aOR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.33-2.14; I2 = 35.0%). There is an urgent need for effective combination HIV prevention strategies (comprising biomedical, behavioral and structural interventions) that target migrant populations.
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Abstract
Hypertension prevalence is on the rise in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) like South Africa, and migration and its concomitant urbanization are often considered to be associated with this rise. However, relatively little is known about the relationship between blood pressure (BP) and internal migration - a highly prevalent population process in LMICs. This study employed data for a group of 194 adult men and women from an original pilot dataset drawn from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System in north-east South Africa conducted in 2012. Migrants in the sample were identified, tracked and interviewed. The relationship between BP and migration distance and the number of months an individual spent away from his/her home village was estimated using robust OLS regression, controlling for a series of socioeconomic, health and behavioural characteristics. It was found that migrants who moved a longer distance and for longer durations had significantly higher systolic and diastolic blood pressures compared with shorter-term migrants and those who remained nearby or in their home village. These associations remained robust and statistically significant when adjusting for measures of socioeconomic conditions, as well as body mass index and the number of meals consumed per day. Migration, both in terms of distance and time away, explained significant variation in the blood pressure of migrants in this typical South African context. The findings suggest the need for further studies of the nutritional and psycho-social factors associated with geographic mobility that may be important to understand rising hypertension levels in LMICs.
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Abeler-Dörner L, Grabowski MK, Rambaut A, Pillay D, Fraser C. PANGEA-HIV 2: Phylogenetics And Networks for Generalised Epidemics in Africa. Curr Opin HIV AIDS 2019; 14:173-180. [PMID: 30946141 PMCID: PMC6629166 DOI: 10.1097/coh.0000000000000542] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/05/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW The HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa is far from being under control and the ambitious UNAIDS targets are unlikely to be met by 2020 as declines in per-capita incidence being largely offset by demographic trends. There is an increasing number of proven and specific HIV prevention tools, but little consensus on how best to deploy them. RECENT FINDINGS Traditionally, phylogenetics has been used in HIV research to reconstruct the history of the epidemic and date zoonotic infections, whereas more recent publications focus on HIV diversity and drug resistance. However, it is also the most powerful method of source attribution available for the study of HIV transmission. The PANGEA (Phylogenetics And Networks for Generalized Epidemics in Africa) consortium has generated over 18 000 NGS HIV sequences from five countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Using phylogenetic methods, we will identify characteristics of individuals or groups, which are most likely to be at risk of infection or at risk of infecting others. SUMMARY Combining phylogenetics, phylodynamics and epidemiology will allow PANGEA to highlight where prevention efforts should be focussed to reduce the HIV epidemic most effectively. To maximise the public health benefit of the data, PANGEA offers accreditation to external researchers, allowing them to access the data and join the consortium. We also welcome submissions of other HIV sequences from sub-Saharan Africa to the database.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lucie Abeler-Dörner
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Mary K. Grabowski
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Rakai Health Sciences Program, Baltimore, USA
| | - Andrew Rambaut
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Laboratories, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Deenan Pillay
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
- Division of Infection and Immunity, University College London, London, UK
| | - Christophe Fraser
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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Tanser F, Bärnighausen T, Dobra A, Sartorius B. Identifying 'corridors of HIV transmission' in a severely affected rural South African population: a case for a shift toward targeted prevention strategies. Int J Epidemiol 2019; 47:537-549. [PMID: 29300904 PMCID: PMC5913614 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyx257] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/21/2017] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background In the context of a severe generalized African HIV epidemic, the value of geographically targeted prevention interventions has only recently been given serious consideration. However, to date no study has performed a population-based analysis of the micro-geographical clustering of HIV incident infections, limiting the evidential support for such a strategy. Methods We followed 17 984 HIV-uninfected individuals aged 15–54 in a population-based cohort in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, and observed individual HIV sero-conversions between 2004 and 2014. We geo-located all individuals to an exact homestead of residence (accuracy <2 m). We then employed a two-dimensional Gaussian kernel of radius 3 km to produce robust estimates of HIV incidence which vary across continuous geographical space. We also applied Tango's flexibly shaped spatial scan statistic to identify irregularly shaped clusters of high HIV incidence. Results Between 2004 and 2014, we observed a total of 2 311 HIV sero-conversions over 70 534 person-years of observation, at an overall incidence of 3.3 [95% confidence interval (CI), 3.1-3.4] per 100 person-years. Three large irregularly-shaped clusters of new HIV infections (relative risk = 1.6, 1.7 and 2.3) were identified in two adjacent peri-urban communities near the National Road (P = 0.001, 0.015) as well as in a rural node bordering a recent coal mine development (P = 0.020), respectively. Together the clusters had a significantly higher age-sex standardized incidence of 5.1 (95% CI, 4.7-5.6) per 100 person-years compared with a standardized incidence of 3.0 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 2.9-3.2) in the remainder of the study area. Though these clusters comprise just 6.8% of the study area, they account for one out of every four sero-conversions observed over the study period. Conclusions Our study has revealed clear ‘corridors of transmission’ in this typical rural, hyper-endemic population. Even in a severely affected rural African population, an approach that seeks to provide preventive interventions to the most vulnerable geographies could be more effective and cost-effective in reducing the overall rate of new HIV infections. There is an urgent need to develop and test such interventions as part of an overall combination prevention approach.
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Affiliation(s)
- Frank Tanser
- Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, South Africa.,School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.,Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.,Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, London, UK
| | - Till Bärnighausen
- Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, South Africa.,Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, London, UK.,Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.,Institute for Public Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Adrian Dobra
- Department of Statistics, Department of Biobehavioral Nursing and Health Informatics, Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences and Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Benn Sartorius
- School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
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TOMITA A, VANDORMAEL A, BÄRNIGHAUSEN T, PHILLIPS A, PILLAY D, DE OLIVEIRA T, TANSER F. Sociobehavioral and community predictors of unsuppressed HIV viral load: multilevel results from a hyperendemic rural South African population. AIDS 2019; 33:559-569. [PMID: 30702520 PMCID: PMC6547375 DOI: 10.1097/qad.0000000000002100] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Extensive antiretroviral therapy scale-up is expected to prevent onward transmission of HIV by reducing the overall community viral load. Despite multiple studies about predictors of detectable viral load derived from clinical setting, to date, no study has established such predictors using a population-based viral load survey in a sub-Saharan African hyperendemic setting to inform interventions designed to halt HIV transmission. We used one of Africa's largest prospective cohorts in rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, to establish the key sociodemographic, behavioral and community predictors of unsuppressed viral load at the population level. METHODS We collected 5454 viral load measurements from a population-based viral load survey of 3892 women living with HIV from a rural population during 2011, 2013 and 2014. Multilevel logistic regression models were fitted to examine the risk predictors of unsuppressed viral load. RESULTS Among women living with HIV in this population, the prevalence of unsuppressed viral load was 69% in 2011, 58% in 2013 and 53% in 2014. Although time since HIV infection was associated with lower risk for virologic detection [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.91,0.87-0.94], young women (aOR = 2.59,1.47-4.55) with extensive external migration history (aOR = 1.25,1.02-1.54), greater number of sexual partners (aOR = 1.30,1.02-1.67), and longer history of residing in an HIV incidence hotspot community were more likely to experience unsuppressed viral load (aOR = 1.12,1.06-1.19). CONCLUSION Young women, number of sexual partners, transiency and longer residence in an HIV hotspot community are important determinants of unsuppressed viral load in a hyperendemic rural African setting. To substantially reduce the persistently high transmission potential in these settings, targeted interventions to address these risk factors will be essential for both individual and population health gains.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew TOMITA
- Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, South Africa
- KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing (KRISP), Nelson R Mandela School of Medicine, College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
- Centre for Rural Health, School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Alain VANDORMAEL
- Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, South Africa
- KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing (KRISP), Nelson R Mandela School of Medicine, College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
- School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Till BÄRNIGHAUSEN
- Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, South Africa
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, USA
- Heidelberg Institute for Public Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Andrew PHILLIPS
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Deenan PILLAY
- Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, South Africa
- Division of Infection and Immunity, University College London, London, UK
| | - Tulio DE OLIVEIRA
- KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing (KRISP), Nelson R Mandela School of Medicine, College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
- School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Frank TANSER
- Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, South Africa
- School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- Research Department of Infection & Population Health, University College London, London, UK
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa
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Vandormael A, Tanser F, Cuadros D, Dobra A. Estimating trends in the incidence rate with interval censored data and time-dependent covariates. Stat Methods Med Res 2019; 29:272-281. [PMID: 30782096 DOI: 10.1177/0962280219829892] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
Abstract
We propose a multiple imputation method for estimating the incidence rate with interval censored data and time-dependent (and/or time-independent) covariates. The method has two stages. First, we use a semi-parametric G-transformation model to estimate the cumulative baseline hazard function and the effects of the time-dependent (and/or time-independent covariates) on the interval censored infection times. Second, we derive the participant's unique cumulative distribution function and impute infection times conditional on the covariate values. To assess performance, we simulated infection times from a Cox proportional hazards model and induced interval censoring by varying the testing rate, e.g., participants test 100%, 75%, 50% of the time, etc. We then compared the incidence rate estimates from our G-imputation approach with single random-point and mid-point imputation. By comparison, our G-imputation approach gave more accurate incidence rate estimates and appropriate standard errors for models with time-independent covariates only, time-dependent covariates only, and a mixture of time-dependent and time-independent covariates across various testing rates. We demonstrate, for the first time, a multiple imputation approach for incidence rate estimation with interval censored data and time-dependent (and/or time-independent) covariates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alain Vandormael
- School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.,Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI), KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.,KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), University of KwaZulu-Natal, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | - Frank Tanser
- School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.,Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI), KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.,Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), University of KwaZulu-Natal, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.,Research Department of Infection & Population Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Diego Cuadros
- Department of Geography and Geographic Information Science, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, USA
| | - Adrian Dobra
- Department of Statistics, Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, and Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
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Dzomba A, Tomita A, Vandormael A, Govender K, Tanser F. Effect of ART scale-up and female migration intensity on risk of HIV acquisition: results from a population-based cohort in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. BMC Public Health 2019; 19:196. [PMID: 30764786 PMCID: PMC6376673 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-019-6494-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2018] [Accepted: 01/29/2019] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite increased antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage, the incidence of HIV infection among women in rural South Africa remains high. While many socio-demographic and behavioral factors have been identified, the effect of female migration intensity on the risk of HIV acquisition before and after ART scale-up has not been evaluated in the country. METHODS We followed 13,315 female participants aged 15-49 who were HIV-uninfected at baseline and recorded their migration events between 2004 and 2015. Using a Cox proportional hazard model, we estimated the time to HIV acquisition among the women, adjusting for annual migration intensity (high: ≥2 events/year, moderate = 1 event/year, and low = 0 event/year) before and after ART scale-up in 2010. RESULTS 1998 (15%) new HIV-infection events were recorded during the observation period. Overall, high migration intensity was associated with an increased HIV acquisition risk among women when compared with low migration intensity (HR = 2.88, 95% CI: 1.56-5.53). Among those with high migration intensity, the risk of HIV acquisition was significantly lower in the post-ART period compared to the pre-ART period, after controlling for key socio-demographic and behavioural covariates (aHR = 0.18, 95% CI 0.04-0.83). CONCLUSIONS Women who migrated frequently after ART scale-up had a significantly reduced HIV acquisition risk compared to those before its implementation. While this reduction is encouraging, women who migrate frequently remain at high risk of HIV acquisition. In the era of ART, there remains a critical need for public health interventions to reduce the risk of HIV acquisition in this highly vulnerable population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Armstrong Dzomba
- Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI), KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. .,School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa. .,KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
| | - Andrew Tomita
- Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI), KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.,KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.,Centre for Rural Health, School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Alain Vandormael
- Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI), KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.,School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.,KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Kaymarlin Govender
- Health Economics and HIV and AIDS Research Division (HEARD), University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Frank Tanser
- Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI), KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.,School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.,Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.,Research Department of Infection & Population Health, University College London, London, UK
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Coltart CEM, Hoppe A, Parker M, Dawson L, Amon JJ, Simwinga M, Geller G, Henderson G, Laeyendecker O, Tucker JD, Eba P, Novitsky V, Vandamme AM, Seeley J, Dallabetta G, Harling G, Grabowski MK, Godfrey-Faussett P, Fraser C, Cohen MS, Pillay D. Ethical considerations in global HIV phylogenetic research. Lancet HIV 2018; 5:e656-e666. [PMID: 30174214 PMCID: PMC7327184 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3018(18)30134-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2018] [Revised: 05/28/2018] [Accepted: 06/06/2018] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
Abstract
Phylogenetic analysis of pathogens is an increasingly powerful way to reduce the spread of epidemics, including HIV. As a result, phylogenetic approaches are becoming embedded in public health and research programmes, as well as outbreak responses, presenting unique ethical, legal, and social issues that are not adequately addressed by existing bioethics literature. We formed a multidisciplinary working group to explore the ethical issues arising from the design of, conduct in, and use of results from HIV phylogenetic studies, and to propose recommendations to minimise the associated risks to both individuals and groups. We identified eight key ethical domains, within which we highlighted factors that make HIV phylogenetic research unique. In this Review, we endeavoured to provide a framework to assist researchers, public health practitioners, and funding institutions to ensure that HIV phylogenetic studies are designed, done, and disseminated in an ethical manner. Our conclusions also have broader relevance for pathogen phylogenetics.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Anne Hoppe
- Division of Infection and Immunity, University College London, London, UK.
| | - Michael Parker
- The Wellcome Centre for Ethics and Humanities (Ethox), Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Liza Dawson
- Division of AIDS, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Joseph J Amon
- Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | | | - Gail Geller
- Berman Institute of Bioethics and School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Gail Henderson
- Center for Genomics and Society, Department of Social Medicine, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Oliver Laeyendecker
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Joseph D Tucker
- Institute for Global Health and Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Patrick Eba
- Community Support, Social Justice and Inclusion Department, Geneva, Switzerland; School of Law, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa
| | - Vladimir Novitsky
- Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Anne-Mieke Vandamme
- Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, Rega Institute for Medical Research, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, KU Leuven-University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium; Center for Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Unidade de Microbiologia, Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Janet Seeley
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa; Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Guy Harling
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK; Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | - M Kate Grabowski
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA; Department of Rakai Community Cohort Study, Rakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda
| | - Peter Godfrey-Faussett
- Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, Geneva, Switzerland; Department of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Christophe Fraser
- Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Myron S Cohen
- Institute for Global Health and Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA; Department of Medicine, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Deenan Pillay
- Division of Infection and Immunity, University College London, London, UK; Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
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Tlou B. Underlying determinants of maternal mortality in a rural South African population with high HIV prevalence (2000-2014): A population-based cohort analysis. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0203830. [PMID: 30212535 PMCID: PMC6136765 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0203830] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2018] [Accepted: 08/28/2018] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Maternal mortality is one of the significant health indicators of any country and it's a frequent subject in many global heath discussions. Even though the global trends have shown a decrease on maternal mortality, many countries in sub-Saharan Africa failed to achieve the MDG 5 target in 2015.There is no specific single solution for reducing maternal mortality but there is unanimity that a reliable health system with skilled personal is vital for addressing maternal mortality. This study therefore seeks to identify the risk factors for maternal mortality in typical rural sub-Saharan African countries. METHOD A longitudinal population based cohort study was conducted using data from 2000-2014 in Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI).The Cox regression method was used to assess the influence of selected risk factors using the Mosley-Chen model on maternal mortality. A total of 20701 women aged 15-49 years were included in the study. RESULTS The study found 212 maternal deaths from 32,620 live births with a maternal mortality ratio (MMR) of 650 per 100,000 live births. The main causes of death were Communicable diseases (38.2%), Aids and TB (31%) and Unknown causes (11.8%). An increased risk of death was identified on, poor wealth index (HR 3.92[1.01, 15.3]), period of death 2000-2006(HR32.1 [3.79, 71.5]) and number of deliveries (6.76[2.70, 16.9]) were associated with a high risk of maternal mortality after adjusting for other independent variables included in the study. CONCLUSION Socio-economic status, number of deliveries and period of death were found to be associated with maternal death in rural South Africa.
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Affiliation(s)
- B. Tlou
- Discipline of Public Health Medicine, School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
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