A resurgent HIV-1 epidemic among men who have sex with men in the era of potent antiretroviral therapy

The effects of HIV self-testing on HIV incidence and awareness of status among men who have sex with men in the United States: Insights from a novel compartmental model

BACKGROUND

The OraQuick In-Home HIV self-test represents a fast, inexpensive, and convenient method for users to assess their HIV status. If integrated thoughtfully into existing testing practices, accompanied by efficient pathways to formal diagnosis, self-testing could enhance both HIV awareness and reduce HIV incidence. However, currently available self-tests are less sensitive, particularly for recent infection, when compared to gold-standard laboratory tests. It is important to understand the impact if some portion of standard testing is replaced by self-tests. We used a compartmental model to evaluate the effects of self-testing in diverse scenarios among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States for the period 2020-2030, and to understand which scenarios maximize the advantages of self-testing.

METHODS

We introduced a novel 4-compartment model for HIV self-testing. We employed the model under different screening rates, self-test proportions, and delays to diagnosis for those identified through self-tests to determine the potential effects of self-testing on HIV incidence and awareness of status when applied to the US MSM population. We studied scenarios in which self-tests supplement laboratory-based tests, with no replacement, and scenarios in which some replacement occurs. We also examined how future improvements in self-test sensitivity may affect our results.

RESULTS

When HIV self-tests are supplemental rather than substitutes for laboratory-based testing, self-testing can decrease HIV incidence among MSM in the US by up to 10 % and increase awareness of status among MSM from 85 % to 91 % over a 10-year period, provided linkage to care and formal diagnosis occur promptly following a positive self-test (90 days or less). As self-tests replace a higher percentage laboratory-based testing algorithms, increases in overall testing rates were necessary to ensure reductions in HIV incidence. However, such needed increases were relatively small (under 10 % for prompt engagement in care and moderate levels of replacement). Improvements in self-test sensitivity and/or decreases in the detection period may further reduce any necessary increases in overall testing by up to 40 %.

CONCLUSIONS

If properly utilized, self-testing can provide significant long-term reductions to HIV incidence and improve awareness of HIV status. Ensuring that self-testing increases overall testing and that formal diagnosis and engagement in care occur promptly following a positive self-test are necessary to maximize the benefits of self-testing. Future improvements in self-test sensitivity and reductions in the detection period would further reduce HIV incidence and the potential risks associated with replacing laboratory tests with self-tests.

Trends and predictors of HIV positivity and time since last test at voluntary counselling and testing encounters among adults in Kilifi, Kenya, 2006-2017

Background: Little is known about HIV retesting uptake among key populations (KP) and general populations (GP) in Kenya. We assessed trends and predictors of first-time testing (FTT), late retesting (previous test more than one year ago for GP or three months for KP), and test positivity at three voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) centres in coastal Kenya. Methods: Routine VCT data covering 2006-2017 was collected from three VCT centres in Kilifi County. We analysed HIV testing history and test results from encounters among adults 18-39 years, categorized as GP men, GP women, men who have sex with men (MSM), and female sex workers (FSW).     Results: Based on 24,728 test encounters (32% FTT), we observed declines in HIV positivity (proportion of encounters where the result was positive) among GP men, GP women, first-time testers and MSM but not among FSW. The proportion of encounters for FTT and late retesting decreased for both GP and KP but remained much higher in KP than GP. HIV positivity was higher at FTT and late retesting encounters; at FSW and MSM encounters; and at encounters with clients reporting lower educational attainment and sexually transmitted infection (STI) symptoms. HIV positivity was lower in GP men, never married clients and those less than 35 years of age. FTT was associated with town, risk group, age 18-24 years, never-married status, low educational attainment, and STI symptoms. Late retesting was less common among encounters with GP individuals who were never married, had Muslim or no religious affiliation, had lower educational attainment, or reported STI symptoms. Conclusions: HIV positive test results were most common at encounters with first-time testers and late re-testers. While the proportion of encounters at which late retesting was reported decreased steadily over the period reviewed, efforts are needed to increase retesting among the most at-risk populations.

The Rhythm of Risk: Sexual Behaviour, PrEP Use and HIV Risk Perception Between 1999 and 2018 Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Amsterdam, The Netherlands

HIV risk perception plays a crucial role in the uptake of preventive strategies. We investigated how risk perception and its determinants changed between 1999 and 2018 in an open, prospective cohort of 1323 HIV-negative men who have sex with men (MSM). Risk perception, defined as the perceived likelihood of acquiring HIV in the past 6 months, changed over time: being relatively lower in 2008–2011, higher in 2012–2016, and again lower in 2017–2018. Irrespective of calendar year, condomless anal intercourse (AI) with casual partners and high numbers of partners were associated with higher risk perception. In 2017–2018, condomless receptive AI with a partner living with HIV was no longer associated with risk perception, while PrEP use and condomless AI with a steady partner were associated with lower risk perception. We showed that risk perception has fluctuated among MSM in the past 20 years. The Undetectable equals Untransmittable statement and PrEP coincided with lower perceived risk.

Trends and predictors of HIV positivity and time since last test at voluntary counselling and testing encounters among adults in Kilifi, Kenya, 2006-2017

Background: Little is known about HIV retesting uptake among key populations (KP) and general populations (GP) in Kenya. We assessed trends and predictors of first-time testing (FTT), late retesting (previous test more than one year ago for GP or three months for KP), and test positivity at three voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) centres in coastal Kenya. Methods: Routine VCT data covering 2006-2017 was collected from three VCT centres in Kilifi County. We analysed HIV testing history and test results from encounters among adults 18-39 years, categorized as GP men, GP women, men who have sex with men (MSM), and female sex workers (FSW).     Results: Based on 24,728 test encounters (32% FTT), we observed declines in HIV positivity (proportion of encounters where the result was positive) among GP men, GP women, first-time testers and MSM but not among FSW. The proportion of encounters for FTT and late retesting decreased for both GP and KP but remained much higher in KP than GP. HIV positivity was higher at FTT and late retesting encounters; at FSW and MSM encounters; and at encounters with clients reporting lower educational attainment and sexually transmitted infection (STI) symptoms. HIV positivity was lower in GP men, never married clients and those less than 35 years of age. FTT was associated with town, risk group, age 18-24 years, never-married status, low educational attainment, and STI symptoms. Late retesting was less common among encounters with GP individuals who were never married, had Muslim or no religious affiliation, had lower educational attainment, or reported STI symptoms. Conclusions: HIV positive test results were most common at encounters with first-time testers and late re-testers. While the proportion of encounters at which late retesting was reported decreased steadily over the period reviewed, efforts are needed to increase retesting among the most at-risk populations.

Did sexual behaviour differences between HIV infection and treatment groups offset the preventative biological effects of ART roll-out in Zimbabwe?

Declines in HIV incidence have been slower than expected during the roll-out of antiretroviral treatment (ART) services in sub-Saharan African populations suffering generalized epidemics. Using data from a population-based, open cohort HIV sero-survey (2004-13), we found evidence for initial reductions in sexual activity and multiple sexual partnerships, followed by increases during the period of ART scale-up in areas of high HIV prevalence in Manicaland, east Zimbabwe. Recent population-level increases in condom use were also recorded, but largely reflected high use by the rapidly growing proportion of HIV-infected individuals on treatment. Sexual risk behaviour increased in susceptible uninfected individuals and in untreated (and therefore more infectious) HIV-infected men, which may have slowed the decline in HIV incidence in this area. Intensified primary HIV prevention programmes, together with strengthened risk screening, referral, and support services following HIV testing, could help to maximize the impact of 'test-and-treat' programmes in reducing new infections.

Clusters of Sexual Behavior in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-positive Men Who Have Sex With Men Reveal Highly Dissimilar Time Trends

BACKGROUND

Separately addressing specific groups of people who share patterns of behavioral change might increase the impact of behavioral interventions to prevent transmission of sexually transmitted infections. We propose a method based on machine learning to assist the identification of such groups among men who have sex with men (MSM).

METHODS

By means of unsupervised learning, we inferred "behavioral clusters" based on the recognition of similarities and differences in longitudinal patterns of condomless anal intercourse with nonsteady partners (nsCAI) in the HIV Cohort Study over the last 18 years. We then used supervised learning to investigate whether sociodemographic variables could predict cluster membership.

RESULTS

We identified 4 behavioral clusters. The largest behavioral cluster (cluster 1) contained 53% of the study population and displayed the most stable behavior. Cluster 3 (17% of the study population) displayed consistently increasing nsCAI. Sociodemographic variables were predictive for both of these clusters. The other 2 clusters displayed more drastic changes: nsCAI frequency in cluster 2 (20% of the study population) was initially similar to that in cluster 3 but accelerated in 2010. Cluster 4 (10% of the study population) had significantly lower estimates of nsCAI than all other clusters until 2017, when it increased drastically, reaching 85% by the end of the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified highly dissimilar behavioral patterns across behavioral clusters, including drastic, atypical changes. The patterns suggest that the overall increase in the frequency of nsCAI is largely attributable to 2 clusters, accounting for a third of the population.

Scaling up screening and treatment for elimination of hepatitis C among men who have sex with men in the era of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis

BACKGROUND

Routine HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and HIV care appointments provide opportunities for screening men who have sex with men (MSM) for hepatitis C virus infection (HCV). However, levels of screening required for achieving the WHO elimination target of reducing HCV incidence by 90% by 2030 among all MSM are unknown.

METHODS

An HCV/HIV transmission model was calibrated to UK prevalence of HIV among MSM (4·7%) and chronic HCV infection among HIV-positive MSM (9·9%) and HIV-negative MSM (1.2%). Assuming 12·5% coverage of PrEP among HIV-negative MSM, we evaluated the relative reduction in overall HCV incidence by 2030 (compared to 2018 levels) of HCV screening every 12/6-months (alongside completing direct acting antiviral treatment within 6-months of diagnosis) in PrEP users and/or HIV-diagnosed MSM. We estimated the additional screening required among HIV-negative non-PrEP users to reduce overall incidence by 90% by 2030. The effect of 50% reduction in condom use among PrEP users (risk compensation) was estimated.

RESULTS

Screening and treating PrEP users for HCV every 12 or 6-months decreases HCV incidence by 67·3% (uncertainty range 52·7-79·2%) or 70·2% (57·1-80·8%), respectively, increasing to 75·4% (59·0-88·6%) or 78·8% (63·9-90·4%) if HIV-diagnosed MSM are also screened at same frequencies. Risk compensation reduces these latter projections by <10%. To reduce HCV incidence by 90% by 2030 without risk compensation, HIV-negative non-PrEP users require screening every 5·6 (3·8-9·2) years if MSM on PrEP and HIV-diagnosed MSM are screened every 6-months, shortening to 4·4 (3·1-6·6) years with risk compensation. For 25·0% PrEP coverage, the HCV elimination target can be reached without screening HIV-negative MSM not on PrEP, irrespective of risk compensation.

INTERPRETATION

At low PrEP coverage, increased screening of all MSM is required to achieve the WHO HCV-elimination targets for MSM in the UK, whereas at higher PrEP coverage this is possible through just screening HIV-diagnosed MSM and PrEP users.

Incorporation of information diffusion model for enhancing analyses in HIV molecular surveillance

Molecular surveillance of infections is essential in monitoring their transmission in the population. In this study, newly diagnosed HIV patients' phylogenetic, clinical and behavioural data were integrated, and an information diffusion model was incorporated in analysing transmission dynamics. A genetic network was constructed from HIV sequences, from which transmission cascades were extracted. From the transmission cascades, CRF01_AE had higher values of information diffusion metrics, including scale, speed and range, than that of B, signifying the distinct transmission patterns of two circulating subtypes in Hong Kong. Patients connected in the network, were more likely male, younger, of main circulating subtypes, to have acquired HIV infection locally, and a higher CD4 level at diagnosis. Genetic connections varied among men who have sex with men (MSM) who used different channels of sex networking and varied in their engagement in risk behaviours. MSM using recreational drugs for sex held positions of greater importance within the network. Significant differences in network metrics were observed among MSM as differentiated by their mobile apps usage patterns, evidencing the impact of social network on transmission networks. The applied model in the presence of consistently collected longitudinal data could enhance HIV molecular epidemiologic surveillance for informing future intervention planning.

Impact of frequent testing on the transmission of HIV and N. gonorrhoeae among men who have sex with men: a mathematical modelling study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the impact and efficiency of combined testing for HIV and other STIs on HIV and STI transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM) and to assess what subgroups of MSM should be targeted for frequent testing.

METHODS

We developed an agent-based transmission model that simulates infection with HIV or Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) among MSM. We examined scenarios with increased percentages of MSM getting tested six monthly, among all MSM or only specific subgroups of MSM (defined according to recent gonorrhoea, number of partners and engagement in condomless anal intercourse (CAI)) and scenarios with reduced intervals between HIV/STI tests.

RESULTS

The most efficient strategies were those with increased percentage of MSM getting tested every 6 months among MSM with a recent gonorrhoea diagnosis; or among MSM who had CAI and ≥10 partners; or MSM who had ≥10 partners. Over 10 years, these strategies resulted in 387-718 averted HIV infections and required 29-164 additional HIV tests per averted HIV infection or one to seven additional gonorrhoea tests per averted NG infection. The most effective strategy in reducing HIV transmission was the one where the intervals between tests were reduced by half, followed by the strategy with increased percentage of MSM getting tested every 6 months among all MSM. Over 10 years, these strategies resulted in 1362 and 1319 averted HIV infections, but required 663 and 584 additional HIV tests per averted HIV infection, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Targeting MSM with recent gonorrhoea diagnosis or MSM with many partners is efficient in terms of HIV/STI tests needed to prevent new HIV or NG infections. Major reductions in HIV incidence can be achieved with consistent HIV/STI testing every 6 months among larger groups, including low-risk MSM. To impede HIV transmission, frequent testing should be combined with other prevention measures.

Trends and predictors of new HIV diagnosis and time since last test at testing encounters among adults in Kilifi, Kenya, 2006-2017

Background: Little is known about HIV retesting uptake among key populations (KP) and general populations (GP) in Kenya. We assessed trends and predictors of new HIV diagnosis, first-time testing (FTT), and late retesting (previous test more than one year ago for GP or three months for KP). Methods: Data was collected routinely at three voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) centres in Kilifi County between 2006 and 2017. We analysed test encounters among adults 18-39 years, categorized as GP men, GP women, men who have sex with men (MSM), and female sex workers (FSW).     Results: Based on 25,670 test encounters (32% FTT), we observed significant declines in HIV positivity (proportion of encounters with a new HIV diagnosis) among GP men, GP women, and first-time testers, but not among MSM and FSW. FTT and late retesting decreased for both GP and KP, but remained much higher in KP than GP. In 2017, less than 20% of KP were testing quarterly as recommended. HIV positivity was higher at FTT and late retesting encounters (relative to on-time retesting); at FSW and MSM encounters; and at encounters with clients reporting lower educational attainment, sexually transmitted infection (STI) symptoms, or no religious affiliation. HIV positivity was lower in GP men and younger clients. FTT was associated with town, risk group, age 18-24 years, never-married status, low educational attainment, and STI symptoms. Late retesting was less common among encounters with GP individuals who were never married, had Muslim or no religious affiliation, had lower educational attainment, or reported STI symptoms. Conclusions: New HIV diagnoses were most common among first-time testers and late re-testers. While late retesting decreased steadily over the period reviewed, achievement of the county's 90% HIV diagnosis target will require redoubled efforts to increase retesting among the most at risk populations.

Reducing health disparities: key factors for successful implementation of social network testing with HIV self-tests among men who have sex with men with a non-western migration background in the Netherlands

Improving testing uptake among men who have sex with men with a non-western migration background (MSM-NW) is a public health priority, as people who are unaware of their HIV infection are at higher risk of transmitting HIV and are unable to benefit from HIV treatment. Formative semi-structured interviews with 13 MSM-NW assessed key factors for the successful implementation of social network testing with HIV self-tests (SNT-HIVST). Interviews were thematically analysed. Participants mentioned that SNT-HIVST might overcome barriers to regular HIV testing including; being seen while testing, disclosure of sexual identity, and stigma related to HIV and sexual practices. Trust between the HIVST distributer and receiver was important. Finally, SNT-HIVST requires tailored peer support to address practical, informational, and emotional needs. MSM-NW distributing HIVST can have an important role in reducing health disparities in testing uptake among MSM-NW. Provided sufficient trust among MSM-NW; key factors found for successful implementation were education through an e-tool, and establishing quality support by a peer-coordinator for unanticipated questions. In conclusion, HIVST distribution has the potential to reduce health disparities in testing uptake, in particular, if adjusted to MSM-NWs individual preferences and the needs and preferences of the person they are inviting to test.

Enhanced use of phylogenetic data to inform public health approaches to HIV among men who have sex with men

The multidimensional nature and continued evolution of HIV epidemics among men who have sex with men (MSM) requires innovative intervention approaches. Strategies are needed that recognise the individual, social and structural factors driving HIV transmission; that can pinpoint networks with heightened transmission risk; and that can help target intervention in real time. HIV phylogenetics is a rapidly evolving field with strong promise for informing innovative responses to the HIV epidemic among MSM. Currently, HIV phylogenetic insights are providing new understandings of characteristics of HIV epidemics involving MSM, social networks influencing transmission, characteristics of HIV transmission clusters involving MSM, targets for antiretroviral and other prevention strategies and dynamics of emergent epidemics. Maximising the potential of HIV phylogenetics for HIV responses among MSM will require attention to key methodological challenges and ethical considerations, as well as resolving key implementation and scientific questions. Enhanced and integrated use of HIV surveillance, sociobehavioural and phylogenetic data resources are becoming increasingly critical for informing public health approaches to HIV among MSM.

Diverse Large HIV-1 Non-subtype B Clusters Are Spreading Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in Spain

In Western Europe, the HIV-1 epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) is dominated by subtype B. However, recently, other genetic forms have been reported to circulate in this population, as evidenced by their grouping in clusters predominantly comprising European individuals. Here we describe four large HIV-1 non-subtype B clusters spreading among MSM in Spain. Samples were collected in 9 regions. A pol fragment was amplified from plasma RNA or blood-extracted DNA. Phylogenetic analyses were performed via maximum likelihood, including database sequences of the same genetic forms as the identified clusters. Times and locations of the most recent common ancestors (MRCA) of clusters were estimated with a Bayesian method. Five large non-subtype B clusters associated with MSM were identified. The largest one, of F1 subtype, was reported previously. The other four were of CRF02_AG (CRF02_1; n = 115) and subtypes A1 (A1_1; n = 66), F1 (F1_3; n = 36), and C (C_7; n = 17). Most individuals belonging to them had been diagnosed of HIV-1 infection in the last 10 years. Each cluster comprised viruses from 3 to 8 Spanish regions and also comprised or was related to viruses from other countries: CRF02_1 comprised a Japanese subcluster and viruses from 8 other countries from Western Europe, Asia, and South America; A1_1 comprised viruses from Portugal, United Kingom, and United States, and was related to the A1 strain circulating in Greece, Albania and Cyprus; F1_3 was related to viruses from Romania; and C_7 comprised viruses from Portugal and was related to a virus from Mozambique. A subcluster within CRF02_1 was associated with heterosexual transmission. Near full-length genomes of each cluster were of uniform genetic form. Times of MRCAs of CRF02_1, A1_1, F1_3, and C_7 were estimated around 1986, 1989, 2013, and 1983, respectively. MRCA locations for CRF02_1 and A1_1 were uncertain (however initial expansions in Spain in Madrid and Vigo, respectively, were estimated) and were most probable in Bilbao, Spain, for F1_3 and Portugal for C_7. These results show that the HIV-1 epidemic among MSM in Spain is becoming increasingly diverse through the expansion of diverse non-subtype B clusters, comprising or related to viruses circulating in other countries.

Impact of sexual trajectories of men who have sex with men on the reduction in HIV transmission by pre-exposure prophylaxis

Changes in sexual risk behavior over the life course in men who have sex with men (MSM) can influence population-level intervention efficacy. Our objective was to investigate the impact of incorporating sexual trajectories describing long-term changes in risk levels on the reduction in HIV prevalence by pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among MSM. Based on the Amsterdam Cohort Study data, we developed two models of HIV transmission in a population stratified by sexual behavior. In the first model, individuals were stratified into low, medium and high risk levels and did not change their risk levels. The second model had the same stratification but incorporated additionally three types of sexual behavior trajectories. The models assumed universal antiretroviral treatment of HIV⁺ MSM, and PrEP use by high risk HIV^- MSM. We computed the relative reduction in HIV prevalence in both models for annual PrEP uptakes of 10% to 80% at different time points after PrEP introduction. We then investigated the impact of sexual trajectories on the effectiveness of PrEP intervention. The impact of sexual trajectories on the overall prevalence and prevalence in individuals at low, medium and high risk levels varied with PrEP uptake and time after PrEP introduction. Compared to the model without sexual trajectories, the model with trajectories predicted a higher impact of PrEP on the overall prevalence, and on the prevalence among the medium and high risk individuals. In low risk individuals, there was more reduction in prevalence during the first 15 years of PrEP intervention if sexual trajectories were not incorporated in the model. After that point, at low risk level there was more reduction in the model with trajectories. In conclusion, our study predicts that sexual trajectories increase the estimated impact of PrEP on reducing HIV prevalence when compared to a population where risk levels do not change.

The effects of free condom distribution on HIV and other sexually transmitted infections in men who have sex with men

BACKGROUND

HIV and other sexually transmitted infections remain a burden on men who have sex with men in the era of effective combination antiretroviral therapy. New prevention efforts are therefore needed. One of these approaches is the current country-wide free condom distribution at gay bars with darkrooms and gay saunas in the Netherlands. This study assessed the effects of free condom distribution on incidence and burden of disease of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections.

METHODS

A static model was constructed to calculate the impact of free condom distribution on HIV, hepatitis C, chlamydia, gonorrhoea, and syphilis among men who have sex with men visiting these venues. Outcomes included new infections averted and disability-adjusted life years averted. Scenario studies were performed to predict the effects of a further increase of condom use, condom effectiveness and coverage. Lastly, cost-effectiveness and sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Our model showed that condom use at public sex venues increased after the intervention. Annual incidence risk decreased, ranging from 5.73% for gonorrhoea to 7.62% for HIV. The annual number of new infections averted was largest for chlamydia and gonorrhoea (261 and 394 infections, respectively), but 42 new HIV infections were averted as well. In scenarios where condom use and condom effectiveness were further increased, the number of infections reduced more extensively. Over 99% of the decrease in burden of disease was due to HIV. The intervention was cost-effective and cost-saving (for every €1 spent on condom distribution, €5.51 was saved) and remained this in all sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Free condoms at public sex venues could reduce the transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. Condom distribution is an affordable and easily implemented intervention that could reduce the burden of disease in men who have sex with men substantially.

Elimination prospects of the Dutch HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in the era of preexposure prophylaxis

Objective:

Preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a promising intervention to help end the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Netherlands. We aimed to assess the impact of PrEP on HIV prevalence in this population and to determine the levels of PrEP coverage necessary for HIV elimination.

Design and methods:

We developed a mathematical model of HIV transmission in a population stratified by sexual risk behavior with universal antiretroviral treatment (ART) and daily PrEP use depending on an individual's risk behavior. We computed the effective reproduction number, HIV prevalence, ART and PrEP coverage for increasing ART and PrEP uptake levels, and examined how these were affected by PrEP effectiveness and duration of PrEP use.

Results:

At current levels of ART coverage of 80%, PrEP effectiveness of 86% and PrEP duration of 5 years, HIV elimination required 82% PrEP coverage in the highest risk group (12 000 MSM with more than 18 partners per year). If ART coverage increased by 9%, the elimination threshold was at 70% PrEP coverage. For shorter PrEP duration and lower effectiveness elimination prospects were less favorable. For the same number of PrEP users distributed among two groups with highest risk behavior, prevalence dropped from the current 8 to 4.6%.

Conclusion:

PrEP for HIV prevention among MSM could, in principle, eliminate HIV from this population in the Netherlands. The highest impact of PrEP on prevalence was predicted when ART and PrEP coverage increased simultaneously and PrEP was used by the highest risk individuals.

Protocol, rationale and design of SELPHI: a randomised controlled trial assessing whether offering free HIV self-testing kits via the internet increases the rate of HIV diagnosis

BACKGROUND

Among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the UK, an estimated 28% have never tested for HIV and only 27% of those at higher risk test at least every 6 months. HIV self-testing (HIVST), where the person takes their own blood/saliva sample and processes it themselves, offers the opportunity to remove many structural and social barriers to testing. Although several randomised controlled trials are assessing the impact of providing HIVST on rates of HIV testing, none are addressing whether this results in increased rates of HIV diagnoses that link to clinical care. Linking to care is the critical outcome because it is the only way to access antiretroviral treatment (ART). We describe here the design of a large, internet-based randomised controlled trial of HIVST, called SELPHI, which aims to inform this key question.

METHODS/DESIGN

The SELPHI study, which is ongoing is promoted via social networking website and app advertising, and aims to enroll HIV negative men, trans men and trans women, aged over 16 years, who are living in England and Wales. Apart from the physical delivery of the test kits, all trial processes, including recruitment, take place online. In a two-stage randomisation, participants are first randomised (3:2) to receive a free baseline HIVST or no free baseline HIVST. At 3 months, participants allocated to receive a baseline HIVST (and meeting further eligibility criteria) are subsequently randomised (1:1) to receive the offer of regular (every 3 months) free HIVST, with testing reminders, versus no such offer. The primary outcome from both randomisations is a laboratory-confirmed HIV diagnosis, ascertained via linkage to a national HIV surveillance database.

DISCUSSION

SELPHI will provide the first reliable evidence on whether offering free HIVST via the internet increases rates of confirmed HIV diagnoses and linkage to clinical care. The two randomisations reflect the dual objectives of detecting prevalent infections (possibly long-standing) and the more rapid diagnosis of incident HIV infections. It is anticipated that the results of SELPHI will inform future access to HIV self-testing provision in the UK.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

DOI 10.1186/ISRCTN20312003 registered 24/10/2016.

Genome-scale analysis of evolutionary rate and selection in a fast-expanding Spanish cluster of HIV-1 subtype F1

This work is aimed at assessing the presence of positive selection and/or shifts of the evolutionary rate in a fast-expanding HIV-1 subtype F1 transmission cluster affecting men who have sex with men in Spain. We applied Bayesian coalescent phylogenetics and selection analyses to 23 full-coding region sequences from patients belonging to that cluster, along with other 19 F1 epidemiologically-unrelated sequences. A shift in the overall evolutionary rate of the virus, explained by positively selected sites in the cluster, was detected. We also found one substitution in Nef (H89F) that was specific to the cluster and experienced positive selection. These results suggest that fast transmission could have been facilitated by some inherent genetic properties of this HIV-1 variant.

Discordance of Self-report and Laboratory Measures of HIV Viral Load Among Young Men Who Have Sex with Men and Transgender Women in Chicago: Implications for Epidemiology, Care, and Prevention

Suppressing HIV viral load through daily antiretroviral therapy (ART) substantially reduces the risk of HIV transmission, however, the potential population impact of treatment as prevention (TasP) is mitigated due to challenges with sustained care engagement and ART adherence. For an undetectable viral load (VL) to inform decision making about transmission risk, individuals must be able to accurately classify their VL as detectable or undetectable. Participants were 205 HIV-infected young men who have sex with men (YMSM) and transgender women (TGW) from a large cohort study in the Chicago area. Analyses examined correspondence among self-reported undetectable VL, study-specific VL, and most recent medical record VL. Among HIV-positive YMSM/TGW, 54% had an undetectable VL (< 200 copies/mL) via study-specific laboratory testing. Concordance between self-report and medical record VL values was 80% and between self-report and study-specific laboratory testing was 73%; 34% of participants with a detectable study-specific VL self-reported an undetectable VL at last medical visit, and another 28% reported not knowing their VL status. Periods of lapsed viral suppression between medical visits may represent a particular risk for the TasP strategy among YMSM/TGW. Strategies for frequent viral load monitoring, that are not burdensome to patients, may be necessary to optimize TasP.

Inferring population dynamics of HIV-1 subtype C epidemics in Eastern Africa and Southern Brazil applying different Bayesian phylodynamics approaches

The subtype C Eastern Africa clade (C_EA), a particularly successful HIV-1 subtype C lineage, has seeded several sub-epidemics in Eastern African countries and Southern Brazil during the 1960s and 1970s. Here, we characterized the past population dynamics of the major C_EA sub-epidemics in Eastern Africa and Brazil by using Bayesian phylodynamic approaches based on coalescent and birth-death models. All phylodynamic models support similar epidemic dynamics and exponential growth rates until roughly the mid-1980s for all the C_EA sub-epidemics. Divergent growth patterns, however, were supported afterwards. The Bayesian skygrid coalescent model (BSKG) and the birth-death skyline model (BDSKY) supported longer exponential growth phases than the Bayesian skyline coalescent model (BSKL). The BDSKY model uncovers patterns of a recent decline for the C_EA sub-epidemics in Burundi/Rwanda and Tanzania (R_e < 1) and a recent growth for Southern Brazil (R_e > 1); whereas coalescent models infer an epidemic stabilization. To the contrary, the BSKG model captured a decline of Ethiopian C_EA sub-epidemic between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s that was not uncovered by the BDSKY model. These results underscore that the joint use of different phylodynamic approaches may yield complementary insights into the past HIV population dynamics.

Increasing awareness and prompting HIV testing: Contributions of Amsterdam HIV Testing Week 2016

We evaluated Amsterdam HIV Testing Week (HTW) 2016 regarding its primary goals of raising awareness and prompting HIV testing. Participating services offered free, anonymous HIV testing, with a focus on reaching men who have sex with men (MSM) and people with a non-western migration background. Sociodemographic characteristics, HIV testing history, intention to test regularly, beliefs about personal risk and severity of HIV, and perceived social norms regarding HIV testing and people living with HIV were assessed among all who tested. A community quick scan assessed awareness of Amsterdam HTW 2016 and attitudes and intentions regarding HIV testing. Of 806 people tested, 59.6% (405/679) belonged to key populations. None tested HIV-positive and 37.6% intended to test regularly in the future. The community quick scan found moderate awareness of Amsterdam HTW 2016. Awareness was highest among recent testers and HIV-positive MSM and not associated with HIV testing attitudes and intentions. People tested during Amsterdam HTW 2016 were from key populations and/or were not (adequately) reached via traditional testing approaches. The contribution of the Amsterdam HTW approach to raising awareness and prompting HIV testing in key populations may benefit from focusing on HIV-negative individuals who have not been tested recently.

Predictors of HIV Testing and Their Influence on PrEP Acceptance in Men Who Have Sex with Men: A Cross-Sectional Study

HIV testing is the gateway to biomedical means of prevention and treatment. Identifying predictors of HIV testing is important to inform future preventive interventions. Of 444 men who have sex with men without known HIV infection enrolled in a study in Hong Kong, 64% had ever been HIV-tested. Testers were generally older, better educated, had a higher monthly income, and more likely self-identified as gay. Testers often used Internet and frequented saunas for sex networking, compared with non-testers attending bars, massage centres and public toilets. HIV testing habit also varied with the profile of body image type and preferred type in sex networking. Higher acceptance of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) was observed among testers. Overall, socioeconomic status played an important role in both HIV testing and access to PrEP. Interventions targeting sex networking venues and alternative means of testing provision are needed to increase coverage of HIV testing.

Trends in Sexual Behavior Among Men Who have Sex with Men (MSM) in High-Income Countries, 1990-2013: A Systematic Review

HIV diagnoses among men who have sex with men (MSM) have been increasing in several high-income countries. A better understanding of the sexual behavior trends among MSM can be useful for informing HIV prevention. We conducted a systematic review of studies that examined behavioral trends (1990-2013) in any condomless anal sex, condomless anal sex with an HIV-discordant partner, and number of partners. Studies included come from the United States, Europe, and Australia. We found increasing trends in condomless anal sex and condomless anal sex with an HIV-discordant partner, and a decreasing trend in number of partners. The increase in condomless anal sex may help to explain the increase in HIV infections. More explanatory research is needed to provide insight into factors that contribute to these behavior trends. Continuous monitoring of HIV, risk behaviors, and use of prevention and treatment is needed to evaluate prevention efforts and monitor HIV transmission risk.

Implications for a policy of initiating antiretroviral therapy in people diagnosed with human immunodeficiency virus: the CAPRA research programme

Background

More than 100,000 people in the UK are living with a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. There are currently estimated to be around 4000 people newly infected in the UK per year, mostly men who have sex with men (MSM). It has become increasingly clear that antiretroviral therapy (ART) used to treat people infected with HIV also has a profound effect on infectivity. At the initiation of the programme, it was the policy in the UK to initiate ART in people when their cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) count was approaching 350/µl.

Objectives

To assess what would be the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a policy of immediate initiation of ART at diagnosis among MSM, taking into account the potential reductions in new infections.

Design

We calibrated an individual-based model of HIV transmission, progression and the effect of ART in MSM, informed by a series of studies on sexual behaviour in relation to ART use and the transmission risk in people with viral suppression on ART, and by surveillance data collected by Public Health England.

Setting, participants and interventions

The series of studies used to inform the model included (1) the Antiretrovirals, Sexual Transmission Risk and Attitudes (ASTRA) study, a cross-sectional self-administered questionnaire study of people diagnosed with HIV attending eight HIV outpatient clinics in the UK (2011–12); (2) the Cognitive Impairment in People with HIV in the European Region (CIPHER) study, a study of levels of neurocognitive impairment in HIV-positive ASTRA participants and people from HIV clinics in Rome, Copenhagen and Minsk; (3) the Attitudes to, and Understanding of, Risk of Acquisition of HIV (AURAH) study, a cross-sectional self-administered questionnaire study of individuals who have not been diagnosed as HIV-positive attending 20 genitourinary medicine clinics across the UK (2013–14); (4) a substudy of sexual behaviour among individuals enrolled in an open-label multicentre international randomised trial (from 2013) of immediate versus deferred ART (to CD4 cell counts of 350/µl) in people with CD4 cell counts of > 500/µl [the Strategic Timing of Antiretroviral Therapy (START) trial]; and (5) Partners of People on ART: a new Evaluation of the Risks (PARTNER), an observational multicentre longitudinal study of HIV serodifferent heterosexual and MSM couples, in which the HIV-positive partner is on ART (2010–14).

Main outcome measures

The main outcome measures were the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a policy of immediate initiation of ART at diagnosis.

Results

Based on data from studies (i)–(v), we estimated from our modelling work that increases in condomless sex (CLS) among MSM as a whole may explain the increase in HIV infection incidence in MSM epidemics over a time when ART coverage and viral suppression increased, demonstrating the limiting effects of non-condom use on the HIV epidemic among MSM. Accordingly, an increase in the overall proportion of MSM living with HIV who are virally suppressed on ART from the current level of < 60% to 90% without increases in CLS was required to achieve a reduction in the incidence of HIV among MSM to < 1 per 1000 person-years. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio associated with the fourfold increase in levels of HIV testing and ART at diagnosis required to provide this increase from < 60% to 90% was £20,000 if we assumed continuation of current ART prices. However, this value falls to £3500 if we assume that ART prices will fall to 20% of their current cost as a result of the introduction of generic drugs. Therefore, our evaluation suggests that ART initiation at diagnosis is likely to be highly cost-effective in MSM at a population level, particularly accounting for future lower ART costs as generic drugs are used. The impact will be much greater if levels of HIV testing can be enhanced.

Limitations

It was necessary to make some assumptions beyond the available data in order to extrapolate cost-effectiveness through modelling.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that ART initiation at diagnosis is likely to be cost-effective in MSM. Of note, after this programme of work was completed, results from the main START trial demonstrated benefit in ART initiation even in people with CD4 cell counts of > 500/µl, supporting ART initiation in people diagnosed with a HIV infection.

Future work

There is a need for future research into the means of increasing the frequency with which MSM test for HIV.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Programme Grants for Applied Research programme.

Limited overlap between phylogenetic HIV and hepatitis C virus clusters illustrates the dynamic sexual network structure of Dutch HIV-infected MSM

OBJECTIVE

MSM are at increased risk for infection with HIV-1 and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Is HIV/HCV coinfection confined to specific HIV transmission networks?

DESIGN AND METHODS

A HIV phylogenetic tree was constructed for 5038 HIV-1 subtype B polymerase (pol) sequences obtained from MSM in the AIDS therapy evaluation in the Netherlands cohort. We investigated the existence of HIV clusters with increased HCV prevalence, the HIV phylogenetic density (i.e. the number of potential HIV transmission partners) of HIV/HCV-coinfected MSM compared with HIV-infected MSM without HCV, and the overlap in HIV and HCV phylogenies using HCV nonstructural protein 5B sequences from 183 HIV-infected MSM with acute HCV infection.

RESULTS

Five hundred and sixty-three of 5038 (11.2%) HIV-infected MSM tested HCV positive. Phylogenetic analysis revealed 93 large HIV clusters (≥10 MSM), 370 small HIV clusters (2-9 MSM), and 867 singletons with a median HCV prevalence of 11.5, 11.6, and 9.3%, respectively. We identified six large HIV clusters with elevated HCV prevalence (range 23.5-46.2%). Median HIV phylogenetic densities for MSM with HCV (3, interquartile range 1-7) and without HCV (3, interquartile range 1-8) were similar. HCV phylogeny showed 12 MSM-specific HCV clusters (clustersize: 2-39 HCV sequences); 12.7% of HCV infections were part of the same HIV and HCV cluster.

CONCLUSION

We observed few HIV clusters with elevated HCV prevalence, no increase in the HIV phylogenetic density of HIV/HCV-coinfected MSM compared to HIV-infected MSM without HCV, and limited overlap between HIV and HCV phylogenies among HIV/HCV-coinfected MSM. Our data do not support the existence of MSM-specific sexual networks that fuel both the HIV and HCV epidemic.

Sexualverhalten, STIs und HIV-Übertragungsrisiken bei HIV-positiven MSM - Ansätze für die ärztliche Präventionsarbeit

HINTERGRUND

Steigende Inzidenzen von HIV-Infektionen und STIs (sexually transmitted infections) bei MSM (men having sex with men) seit 2001 in Deutschland erfordern neue Ansätze in der ärztlichen Präventionsarbeit. Diese Studie befasst sich mit geeigneten Parametern für gezielte ärztliche Angebote an HIV-positive MSM mit hohem Risiko für die Übertragung von HIV und STIs.

METHODIK UND PATIENTEN

In einem zweijährigen Beobachtungszeitraum wurden 233 HIV-positive MSM in der HIV-Ambulanz des Universitätsklinikums Essen zu ihrem Sexualverhalten, Suchtmittelkonsum und psychischem Befinden im vorhergehenden Jahr systematisch befragt. Die dokumentierten Labordaten und klinische Verläufe wurden von der Erstdiagnose der HIV-Infektion bis zum Januar 2014 ausgewertet.

ERGEBNISSE

Drogengebrauch, Promiskuität, jüngeres Lebensalter und bekannte STIs in der Vorgeschichte waren bei HIV-positiven MSM mit häufigerem ungeschützten Geschlechtsverkehr und einer höheren STI-Inzidenz assoziiert. Zusätzliche HIV-spezifische Parameter für ein erhöhtes HIV-Transmissionsrisiko waren neben einer nachweisbaren HIViruslast unbehandelte HIV-Infektionen, Therapieadhärenzprobleme, Wechsel der antiretroviralen Therapie in den letzten zwölf Monaten, bekannte HIV-Multiresistenz und ein höherer CD4-Zell-Nadir. Obwohl die HIViruslast in der Routineversorgung quartalsweise bestimmt und anschließend vom Arzt mitgeteilt wird, schätzten nur 60 % der HIV-positiven MSM ihr HIV-Transmissionsrisiko korrekt ein.

SCHLUSSFOLGERUNGEN

Aus Routineuntersuchungen ergeben sich bei HIV-positiven MSM Profile, die auf ein Sexualverhalten mit hohem Risiko für die Übertragung von HIV und STIs hinweisen und Ansätze für die ärztliche Präventionsarbeit bieten.

Community acceptance and HIV sexual risk among gay and bisexual men in a ‘typical’ Canadian city

Included in Statistics Canada's largest geographical “peer group,” London, Ontario is typical of many mid-size Canadian cities. A local health forum identified community acceptance and homophobia as key factors impacting LGBTQ health; we studied these with regard to HIV-related sexual risk in gay and bisexual men. Survey data were collected from 201 gay and bisexual men in Middlesex-London, Ontario; 173 reported their HIV status as negative/unknown and were included in this analysis. Unadjusted and adjusted prevalence risk ratios (PRRs) were modelled using modified Poisson regression. First, a model was fit for non-modifiable sociodemographic and background factors. Community factors were then added: social support; internalized homonegativity; perceptions of community acceptance of people like oneself (based on orientation, racialization, gender identity). Older age was associated with decreased risk; other sociodemographic and background factors were not. For each 10-year increase in age, prevalence of high-risk sex decreased by 24% (PRR=0.76; 95% CI: 0.60, 0.95). Controlling for age, we found an interaction between perception of broader community acceptance and gay community acceptance of people like oneself. As broader community acceptance increased, high-risk sex decreased; however, this effect varied depending upon perceptions of gay community acceptance, with men feeling most accepted within the gay community having the smallest reductions in high-risk sex. This interaction raises a series of questions. Among these: How do community norms and availability of partners shape sexual risk-taking? Are conventional “contextualized” measures of sexual risk sufficient, or do they miss important risk-mitigation strategies used within gay communities?

Sexual risk behavior, sexually transmitted infections, and HIV transmission risks in HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) - approaches for medical prevention

BACKGROUND

Rising incidence rates of HIV and STIs (sexually transmitted infections) among MSM (men who have sex with men) in Germany since 2001 call for new approaches in medical prevention. The present study addresses appropriate parameters to identify those HIV-positive MSM who are at high risk for transmitting HIV and STIs.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Over a two-year period, 223 HIV-positive MSM attending the HIV outpatient clinic at the University Medical Center Essen (Germany) were systematically surveyed with respect to their sexual behavior, substance abuse, and psychological well-being in the preceding year. Data analyzed included laboratory and clinical data from the time of the initial HIV diagnosis until January 2014.

RESULTS

In HIV-positive MSM, a history of substance abuse, promiscuity, younger age, and known STIs was associated with a greater incidence of unprotected sexual intercourse and STIs. Apart from a detectable viral load, additional HIV-specific parameters associated with an increased HIV transmission risk included untreated HIV infection, adherence problems, changes in antiretroviral treatment over the preceding twelve months, known multiresistant HIV infection, and a higher CD 4 nadir. Despite routine quarterly monitoring of viral loads - the result thereof was communicated to patients - only 60 % of individuals assessed their HIV transmission risk correctly.

CONCLUSIONS

In HIV-positive MSM, patient history and routine laboratory tests allow for the establishment of patient profiles that suggest sexual behavior associated with a high risk of HIV and STI transmission, thus offering new approaches for medical prevention.

Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy on the Spread of Human Immunodeficiency Virus in Chaoyang District, Beijing, China: Using the Asian Epidemic Model

BACKGROUND

Successful antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been demonstrated to be effective in reducing the infectivity of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We conducted a study to predict the potential effect of ART on the spread of HIV in Chaoyang District, Beijing, China, using the Asian Epidemic Model (AEM).

METHODS

The AEM baseline workbook was used to determine the current infection status and to project the future spread of HIV under current conditions. We changed the input on the ART coverage from 2014 to 2025 and also modified the treatment eligibility in the AEM intervention workbook, in order to allow for analysis of the projected downstream impact of ART.

RESULTS

By gradually increasing the ART coverage rate from 29.7% (rate of 2013) to 40.0%, 50.0%, 60.0%, 70.0%, 80.0%, and 90.0% (at CD4+ ≤350 cells/μl), and by changing the dates of coverage from 2014 to 2020, the number of new infections showed a cumulative decline of 0.60%, 1.59%, 2.94%, 5.33%, 9.32%, and 14.98%, respectively. After 2020, the projected rates of infection rebounded slightly, so with the exception of the years with very high coverage (90.0%), new infections continued to decrease. When we changed the initial threshold of therapy to CD4+ cell counts ≤500 cells/μl, new infections decreased 6.00%, 11.64%, 15.92%, 21.11%, 26.92%, 33.05%, and 38.75%, respectively, under varying ART coverages.

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrates that the early initiation of ART for people living with HIV/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) has a positive effect in slowing the spread of HIV.

Identification of a large, fast-expanding HIV-1 subtype B transmission cluster among MSM in Valencia, Spain

We describe and characterize an exceptionally large HIV-1 subtype B transmission cluster occurring in the Comunidad Valenciana (CV, Spain). A total of 1806 HIV-1 protease-reverse transcriptase (PR/RT) sequences from different patients were obtained in the CV between 2004 and 2014. After subtyping and generating a phylogenetic tree with additional HIV-1 subtype B sequences, a very large transmission cluster which included almost exclusively sequences from the CV was detected (n = 143 patients). This cluster was then validated and characterized with further maximum-likelihood phylogenetic analyses and Bayesian coalescent reconstructions. With these analyses, the CV cluster was delimited to 113 patients, predominately men who have sex with men (MSM). Although it was significantly located in the city of Valencia (n = 105), phylogenetic analyses suggested this cluster derives from a larger HIV lineage affecting other Spanish localities (n = 194). Coalescent analyses estimated its expansion in Valencia to have started between 1998 and 2004. From 2004 to 2009, members of this cluster represented only 1.46% of the HIV-1 subtype B samples studied in Valencia (n = 5/143), whereas from 2010 onwards its prevalence raised to 12.64% (n = 100/791). In conclusion, we have detected a very large transmission cluster in the CV where it has experienced a very fast growth in the recent years in the city of Valencia, thus contributing significantly to the HIV epidemic in this locality. Its transmission efficiency evidences shortcomings in HIV control measures in Spain and particularly in Valencia.

Epidemiological Profile of Newly Diagnosed HIV-Infected Patients in Northern Paris: A Retrospective Study

In attempt to identify the factors associated with delayed diagnosis during HIV infection, we studied retrospectively the epidemiological profile of HIV-infected patients diagnosed between January 1, 2012 and December 31, 2013 and followed in our clinical center in Paris. Data were compared to those obtained at the same site during the year 2003. One hundred eighty-six patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria: 49 (26%) had a CD4 count <200/mm³ at diagnosis. Compared to subjects with CD4 count ≥200/mm³, advanced patients were older, had a higher plasma viral load, had more often an AIDS-defining event at the time of HIV diagnosis (45% vs. 3%), had been infected more often through heterosexual contact (69% vs. 44%), had less frequently past HIV testing (23% vs. 63%), and tended to live in less favorable conditions. A higher proportion of these patients initiated antiretroviral therapy in the 3 months following diagnosis (93.9% vs. 48.1%). Compared to data obtained in 161 patients in 2003, the proportions of advanced patients were similar between the two periods (26% vs. 22%). There was a significant increase from year 2003 to the 2012-2013 period in the proportion of men who have sex with men (MSM) (50% vs. 27%) and in the percentage of patients infected with HIV-1 subtype B (48% vs. 27%) and with positive syphilis serology (22% vs. 8%). Our data show that (1) HIV screening should be extended to populations with the following characteristics: older age, heterosexuality, and low socioeconomic level, and (2) HIV transmission continues to progress in MSM, arguing for the value of preexposure prophylaxis.

Beyond Condoms: Risk Reduction Strategies Among Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex With Men Receiving Rapid HIV Testing in Montreal, Canada

Gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) have adapted their sexual practices over the course of the HIV/AIDS epidemic based on available data and knowledge about HIV. This study sought to identify and compare patterns in condom use among gay, bisexual, and other MSM who were tested for HIV at a community-based testing site in Montreal, Canada. Results showed that while study participants use condoms to a certain extent with HIV-positive partners and partners of unknown HIV status, they also make use of various other strategies such as adjusting to a partner's presumed or known HIV status and viral load, avoiding certain types of partners, taking PEP, and getting tested for HIV. These findings suggest that MSM who use condoms less systematically are not necessarily taking fewer precautions but may instead be combining or replacing condom use with other approaches to risk reduction.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for men who have sex with men in Europe: review of evidence for a much needed prevention tool

In many Western countries with good coverage of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes the annual number of HIV infections is still high and not (yet) declining among men who have sex with men (MSM). This might indicate that antiretroviral treatment roll-out alone will not turn around the course of the epidemic and that new, additional tools are needed. Antiretrovirals used as prevention tools for people not yet infected with HIV, such as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) could be such important additional tools. PrEP is a new type of biomedical prevention, which involves the use of antiretrovirals before, during and after (periods of) sexual exposure to HIV. In this review, we will focus on PrEP as a new prevention tool for MSM at high risk in Europe, including its evidence for effectiveness, challenges for implementation, ongoing European demonstration studies; as well as how PrEP relates to other existing prevention tools. In light of European Medicines Agency's recent recommendation for approval of PrEP we briefly review the potential implications.

Impact of Heterogeneity in Sexual Behavior on Effectiveness in Reducing HIV Transmission with Test-and-Treat Strategy

The WHO’s early-release guideline for antiretroviral treatment (ART) of HIV infection based on a recent trial conducted in 34 countries recommends starting treatment immediately upon an HIV diagnosis. Therefore, the test-and-treat strategy may become more widely used in an effort to scale up HIV treatment and curb further transmission. Here we examine behavioural determinants of HIV transmission and how heterogeneity in sexual behaviour influences the outcomes of this strategy. Using a deterministic model, we perform a systematic investigation into the effects of various mixing patterns in a population of men who have sex with men (MSM), stratified by partner change rates, on the elimination threshold and endemic HIV prevalence. We find that both the level of overdispersion in the distribution of the number of sexual partners and mixing between population subgroups have a large influence on endemic prevalence before introduction of ART and on possible long term effectiveness of ART. Increasing heterogeneity in risk behavior may lead to lower endemic prevalence levels, but requires higher coverage levels of ART for elimination. Elimination is only feasible for populations with a rather low degree of assortativeness of mixing and requires treatment coverage of almost 80% if rates of testing and treatment uptake by all population subgroups are equal. In this case, for fully assortative mixing and 80% coverage endemic prevalence is reduced by 57%. In the presence of heterogeneity in ART uptake, elimination is easier to achieve when the subpopulation with highest risk behavior is tested and treated more often than the rest of the population, and vice versa when it is less. The developed framework can be used to extract information on behavioral heterogeneity from existing data which is otherwise hard to determine from population surveys.

HIV is endemic in populations of MSM in Western countries. As ART reduces transmission risk, increased testing and treatment rates are expected to lower HIV incidence. However, concerns are that in MSM populations changing risk behavior may counteract the impact of ART on transmission. Using a mathematical model, we investigated how heterogeneity in sexual behavior influences the possible effects of a test-and-treat strategy on HIV prevalence and in particular the prospects of eliminating HIV from these populations. We demonstrated that behavioral heterogeneity plays an important role in determining the impact of ART on reducing HIV transmission. Knowledge of behavioral heterogeneity is key in setting intervention goals in populations of MSM.

Trends in condom use among MSM in the United States: the role of antiretroviral therapy and seroadaptive strategies

OBJECTIVE

Evaluate changes in condomless anal sex at last sex among men who have sex with men (MSM) and assess if these changes are associated with the adoption of serosorting and biomedical prevention.

DESIGN

The National HIV Behavioral Surveillance is a crosssectional survey done in up to 21 cities in 2005, 2008, 2011 and 2014.

METHODS

MSM were recruited through venue-based sampling. Among men reporting at least one male partner, we evaluated changes in condomless anal sex at last sex with a partner with (1) HIV-concordant (proxy for serosorting) or (2) HIV-discordant (discordant/unknown) status. We hypothesized that if concordant condomless sex was increasing while discordant was stable/declining, the increases could be driven by more men attempting to serosort. We used generalized estimating equations assuming a Poisson distribution and robust variance estimator to explore whether temporal changes in the outcomes varied by selected characteristics. We also assessed changes in condomless anal sex by antiretroviral therapy (ART) use among HIV-positive MSM.

RESULTS

Among 5371 HIV-positive MSM, there were increases in concordant (19% in 2005 to 25% in 2014, P < 0.001) and discordant condomless sex (15 to 19%, P < 0.001). The increases were not different by ART use. Among 30 547 HIV-negative MSM, concordant (21 to 27%, P < 0.001) and discordant condomless sex (8 to 13%, P < 0.001) increased.

CONCLUSION

Our data suggest that condom use decreased among MSM and that the trends are not explained by serosorting or ART. Promotion of condoms and increased access to preexposure prophylaxis are vital to ensure that the benefits of ART in reducing transmission of HIV are not undermined.

Changes in HIV demographic patterns in a low prevalence population: no evidence of a shift towards men who have sex with men

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to examine the changes in HIV demographics over time in an exceptionally low prevalence population, with particular emphasis on men who have sex with men (MSM).

METHODS

A total of 1292 newly diagnosed HIV-positive patients registered in the ACTHIV-IST Study Group database between 2000 and 2014 were included. The changes occurring over time in the characteristics of patients at the time of initial admission were examined retrospectively.

RESULTS

A gradual increase in the total number of newly diagnosed patients was evident during the study period; however, it was not possible to show an increase in the proportion of MSM within the study population (p=0.63). There was a male predominance throughout the study (85% vs. 15%), with further increases in the proportion of males in recent years. The mean age was lower at the end of the study (p<0.05) and there was an increase in the number of unmarried patients (p<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Sexual preference patterns of HIV patients in extremely low prevalence populations may be different, possibly due to an early phase of the epidemic. Nevertheless, MSM still represent a target subgroup for interventions, since they account for a substantial proportion of cases and a resurgent epidemic may be expected among this group in later phases of the epidemic.

Estimating HIV Incidence, Time to Diagnosis, and the Undiagnosed HIV Epidemic Using Routine Surveillance Data

BACKGROUND

Estimates of the size of the undiagnosed HIV-infected population are important to understand the HIV epidemic and to plan interventions, including "test-and-treat" strategies.

METHODS

We developed a multi-state back-calculation model to estimate HIV incidence, time between infection and diagnosis, and the undiagnosed population by CD4 count strata, using surveillance data on new HIV and AIDS diagnoses. The HIV incidence curve was modelled using cubic splines. The model was tested on simulated data and applied to surveillance data on men who have sex with men in The Netherlands.

RESULTS

The number of HIV infections could be estimated accurately using simulated data, with most values within the 95% confidence intervals of model predictions. When applying the model to Dutch surveillance data, 15,400 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 15,000, 16,000) men who have sex with men were estimated to have been infected between 1980 and 2011. HIV incidence showed a bimodal distribution, with peaks around 1985 and 2005 and a decline in recent years. Mean time to diagnosis was 6.1 (95% CI = 5.8, 6.4) years between 1984 and 1995 and decreased to 2.6 (2.3, 3.0) years in 2011. By the end of 2011, 11,500 (11,000, 12,000) men who have sex with men in The Netherlands were estimated to be living with HIV, of whom 1,750 (1,450, 2,200) were still undiagnosed. Of the undiagnosed men who have sex with men, 29% (22, 37) were infected for less than 1 year, and 16% (13, 20) for more than 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

This multi-state back-calculation model will be useful to estimate HIV incidence, time to diagnosis, and the undiagnosed HIV epidemic based on routine surveillance data.

A Cross-Sectional Study on Attitudes to and Understanding of Risk of Acquisition of HIV: Design, Methods and Participant Characteristics

Background

The annual number of new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections in the United Kingdom among men who have sex with men (MSM) has risen, and remains high among heterosexuals. Increasing HIV transmission among MSM is consistent with evidence of ongoing sexual risk behavior in this group, and targeted prevention strategies are needed for those at risk of acquiring HIV.

Objective

The Attitudes to and Understanding of Risk of Acquisition of HIV (AURAH) study was designed to collect information on HIV negative adults at risk of HIV infection in the United Kingdom, based on the following parameters: physical and mental health, lifestyle, patterns of sexual behaviour, and attitudes to sexual risk.

Methods

Cross-sectional questionnaire study of HIV negative or undiagnosed sexual health clinic attendees in the United Kingdom from 2013-2014.

Results

Of 2630 participants in the AURAH study, 2064 (78%) were in the key subgroups of interest; 580 were black Africans (325 females and 255 males) and 1484 were MSM, with 27 participants belonging to both categories.

Conclusions

The results from AURAH will be a significant resource to understand the attitudes and sexual behaviour of those at risk of acquiring HIV within the United Kingdom. AURAH will inform future prevention efforts and targeted health promotion initiatives in the HIV negative population.

Determinants of never having tested for HIV among MSM in the Netherlands

OBJECTIVES

Men who have sex with men (MSM) who are unaware of their HIV infection are more likely to infect others, and unable to receive treatment. Therefore, we aimed to identify the proportion and characteristics of Dutch MSM who never tested for HIV.

METHODS

In 2010, the European MSM Internet Survey (EMIS) recruited 174,209 men from 38 countries through an anonymous online questionnaire in 25 languages. We analysed data from participants living in the Netherlands (N=3787). The outcome we investigated was having never (lifetime) been tested for HIV.

RESULTS

A total of 770 MSM (20.4%) had never been tested for HIV. In multivariate regression analyses, not being from Amsterdam (adjusted OR, aOR 1.54, CI 1.17 to 2.03), with low education (aOR 1.28, CI 1.04 to 1.57) and low knowledge on HIV-testing (aOR 2.23, CI 1.37 to 3.64) were significantly associated with never having tested. Lower sexual risk (including having fewer sexual partners (aOR 2.19, CI 1.57 to 3.04) and no anal intercourse (aOR 5.99, CI 3.04 to 11.77)), and less social engagement (including being less out (aOR 1.93, CI 1.55 to 2.40)) were also associated with having never been tested. Additionally, 36.1% of MSM who never tested for HIV reported high-risk sexual behaviour that may have put them at HIV risk.

CONCLUSIONS

MSM make their own risk assessments that inform their choices about HIV-testing. Nevertheless, MSM who were never tested may have been at risk for HIV, and remain important to target for HIV interventions.

The Art of HIV Elimination: Past and Present Science

INTRODUCTION

Remarkable strides have been made in controlling the HIV epidemic, although not enough to achieve epidemic control. More recently, interest in biomedical HIV control approaches has increased, but substantial challenges with the HIV cascade of care hinder successful implementation. We summarise all available HIV prevention methods and make recommendations on how to address current challenges.

DISCUSSION

In the early days of the epidemic, behavioural approaches to control the HIV dominated, and the few available evidence-based interventions demonstrated to reduce HIV transmission were applied independently from one another. More recently, it has become clear that combination prevention strategies targeted to high transmission geographies and people at most risk of infections are required to achieve epidemic control. Biomedical strategies such as male medical circumcision and antiretroviral therapy for treatment in HIV-positive individuals and as pre-exposure prophylaxis in HIV-negative individuals provide immense promise for the future of HIV control. In resource-rich settings, the threat of HIV treatment optimism resulting in increased sexual risk taking has been observed and there are concerns that as ART roll-out matures in resource-poor settings and the benefits of ART become clearly visible, behavioural disinhibition may also become a challenge in those settings. Unfortunately, an efficacious vaccine, a strategy which could potentially halt the HIV epidemic, remains elusive.

CONCLUSION

Combination HIV prevention offers a logical approach to HIV control, although what and how the available options should be combined is contextual. Therefore, knowledge of the local or national drivers of HIV infection is paramount. Problems with the HIV care continuum remain of concern, hindering progress towards the UNAIDS target of 90-90-90 by 2020. Research is needed on combination interventions that address all the steps of the cascade as the steps are not independent of each other. Until these issues are addressed, HIV elimination may remain an unattainable goal.

Phylogeny and Phylogeography of a Recent HIV-1 Subtype F Outbreak among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Spain Deriving from a Cluster with a Wide Geographic Circulation in Western Europe

We recently reported the rapid expansion of an HIV-1 subtype F cluster among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the region of Galicia, Northwest Spain. Here we update this outbreak, analyze near full-length genomes, determine phylogenetic relationships, and estimate its origin. For this study, we used sequences of HIV-1 protease-reverse transcriptase and env V3 region, and for 17 samples, near full-length genome sequences were obtained. Phylogenetic analyses were performed via maximum likelihood. Locations and times of most recent common ancestors were estimated using Bayesian inference. Among samples analyzed by us, 100 HIV-1 F1 subsubtype infections of monophyletic origin were diagnosed in Spain, including 88 in Galicia and 12 in four other regions. Most viruses (n = 90) grouped in a subcluster (Galician subcluster), while 7 from Valladolid (Central Spain) grouped in another subcluster. At least 94 individuals were sexually-infected males and at least 71 were MSM. Seventeen near full-length genomes were uniformly of F1 subsubtype. Through similarity searches and phylogenetic analyses, we identified 18 viruses from four other Western European countries [Switzerland (n = 8), Belgium (n = 5), France (n = 3), and United Kingdom (n = 2)] and one from Brazil, from samples collected in 2005–2011, which branched within the subtype F cluster, outside of both Spanish subclusters, most of them corresponding to recently infected individuals. The most probable geographic origin and age of the Galician subcluster was Ferrol, Northwest Galicia, around 2007, while the Western European cluster probably emerged in Switzerland around 2002. In conclusion, a recently expanded HIV-1 subtype F cluster, the largest non-subtype B cluster reported in Western Europe, continues to spread among MSM in Spain; this cluster is part of a larger cluster with a wide geographic circulation in diverse Western European countries.

Dispersion of the HIV-1 Epidemic in Men Who Have Sex with Men in the Netherlands: A Combined Mathematical Model and Phylogenetic Analysis

BACKGROUND

The HIV-1 subtype B epidemic amongst men who have sex with men (MSM) is resurgent in many countries despite the widespread use of effective combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). In this combined mathematical and phylogenetic study of observational data, we aimed to find out the extent to which the resurgent epidemic is the result of newly introduced strains or of growth of already circulating strains.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

As of November 2011, the ATHENA observational HIV cohort of all patients in care in the Netherlands since 1996 included HIV-1 subtype B polymerase sequences from 5,852 patients. Patients who were diagnosed between 1981 and 1995 were included in the cohort if they were still alive in 1996. The ten most similar sequences to each ATHENA sequence were selected from the Los Alamos HIV Sequence Database, and a phylogenetic tree was created of a total of 8,320 sequences. Large transmission clusters that included ≥10 ATHENA sequences were selected, with a local support value ≥ 0.9 and median pairwise patristic distance below the fifth percentile of distances in the whole tree. Time-varying reproduction numbers of the large MSM-majority clusters were estimated through mathematical modeling. We identified 106 large transmission clusters, including 3,061 (52%) ATHENA and 652 Los Alamos sequences. Half of the HIV sequences from MSM registered in the cohort in the Netherlands (2,128 of 4,288) were included in 91 large MSM-majority clusters. Strikingly, at least 54 (59%) of these 91 MSM-majority clusters were already circulating before 1996, when cART was introduced, and have persisted to the present. Overall, 1,226 (35%) of the 3,460 diagnoses among MSM since 1996 were found in these 54 long-standing clusters. The reproduction numbers of all large MSM-majority clusters were around the epidemic threshold value of one over the whole study period. A tendency towards higher numbers was visible in recent years, especially in the more recently introduced clusters. The mean age of MSM at diagnosis increased by 0.45 years/year within clusters, but new clusters appeared with lower mean age. Major strengths of this study are the high proportion of HIV-positive MSM with a sequence in this study and the combined application of phylogenetic and modeling approaches. Main limitations are the assumption that the sampled population is representative of the overall HIV-positive population and the assumption that the diagnosis interval distribution is similar between clusters.

CONCLUSIONS

The resurgent HIV epidemic amongst MSM in the Netherlands is driven by several large, persistent, self-sustaining, and, in many cases, growing sub-epidemics shifting towards new generations of MSM. Many of the sub-epidemics have been present since the early epidemic, to which new sub-epidemics are being added.

The biological characteristics of predominant strains of HIV-1 genotype: modeling of HIV-1 infection among men who have sex with men

To investigate the molecular subtypes of prevalent HIV-1 strains and characterize the genetics of dominant strains among men who have sex with men. Molecular epidemiology surveys in this study concentrated on the prevalent HIV-1 strains in Liaoning province by year. 229 adult patients infected with HIV-1 and part of a high-risk group of men who have sex with men were recruited. Reverse transcription and nested PCR amplification were performed. Sequencing reactions were conducted and edited, followed by codon-based alignment. NJ phylogenetic tree analyses detected two distinct CRF01_AE phylogenetic clusters, designated clusters 1 and 2. Clusters 1 and 2 accounted for 12.8% and 84.2% of sequences in the pol gene and 17.6% and 73.1% of sequences in the env gene, respectively. Another six samples were distributed on other phylogenetic clusters. Cluster 1 increased significantly from 5.6% to 20.0%, but cluster 2 decreased from 87.5% to 80.0%. Genetic distance analysis indicated that CRF01_AE cluster 1 in Liaoning was homologous to epidemic CRF01_AE strains, but CRF01_AE cluster 2 was different from other scattered strains. Additionally, significant differences were found in tetra-peptide motifs at the tip of V3 loop between cluster 1 and 2; however, differences in coreceptor usage were not detected. This study shows that subtype CRF01_AE strain may be the most prevalent epidemic strain in the men who have sex with men. Genetic characteristics of the subtype CRF01_AE cluster strain in Liaoning showed homology to the prevalent strains of men who have sex with men in other parts of China.

Exploring Unprotected Anal Intercourse among Newly Diagnosed HIV Positive Men Who Have Sex with Men in China: An Ethnographic Study

BACKGROUND

Unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) is a major pathway towards secondary HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). We explored the socio-cultural environment and individual beliefs and experiences conducive to UAI in the context of Southern China.

METHODS

We employed an ethnographic approach utilizing a socio-ecological framework to conduct repeated in-depth interviews with thirty one newly diagnosed HIV positive MSM as well as participant observations in Shenzhen based healthcare settings, MSM venues and NGO offices.

RESULTS

Some men (6/31) reported continuing to practice UAI after an initial diagnosis of being HIV positive. For MSM who had existing lovers or stable partners, the fear of losing partners in a context of non-serostatus disclosure was testified to be a major concern. MSM with casual partners reported that anonymous sexual encounters and moral judgments played a significant role in their sexual risk behaviors. Simultaneously, self-reported negative emotional and psychological status, perception and idiosyncratic risk interpretation, as well as substance abuse informed the intrapersonal context for UAI.

CONCLUSION

UAI among these HIV positive MSM was embedded in an intrapersonal context, related to partner type, shaped by anonymous sexual encounters, psychological status, and moral judgments. It is important that prevention and intervention for secondary HIV transmission among newly diagnosed HIV positive MSM in China take into account these contextual factors.

Potential impact on HIV incidence of higher HIV testing rates and earlier antiretroviral therapy initiation in MSM

BACKGROUND

Increased rates of testing, with early antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, represent a key potential HIV-prevention approach. Currently, in MSM in the United Kingdom, it is estimated that 36% are diagnosed by 1 year from infection, and the ART initiation threshold is at CD4 cell count 350/μl. We investigated what would be required to reduce HIV incidence in MSM to below 1 per 1000 person-years (i.e. <535 new infections per year) by 2030, and whether this is likely to be cost-effective.

METHODS

A dynamic, individual-based simulation model was calibrated to multiple data sources on HIV in MSM in the United Kingdom. Outcomes were projected according to future alternative HIV testing and ART initiation scenarios to 2030, considering also potential changes in levels of condomless sex.

RESULTS

For ART use to result in an incidence of close to 1/1000 person-years requires the proportion of all HIV-positive MSM with viral suppression to increase from below 60% currently to 90%, assuming no rise in levels of condomless sex. Substantial increases in HIV testing, such that over 90% of men are diagnosed within a year of infection, would increase the proportion of HIV-positive men with viral suppression to 80%, and it would be 90%, if ART is initiated at diagnosis. The scenarios required for such a policy to be cost-effective are presented.

CONCLUSION

This analysis provides targets for the proportion of all HIV-positive MSM with viral suppression required to achieve substantial reductions in HIV incidence.

Role of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in current and future HIV prevention strategies

Treatment as prevention is expected to have a major role in reducing HIV incidence, but other prevention interventions will also be required to bring the epidemic under control, particularly among key populations. One or more forms of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) will likely play a critical role. Oral PrEP with emtricitabine-tenofovir (Truvada®) is currently available in the US and some other countries, but uptake has been slow. We review the concerns that have contributed to this slow uptake and discuss current and future research in this critical area of HIV prevention research.

Changing Patterns of Undiagnosed HIV Infection in the Netherlands: Who Benefits Most from Intensified HIV Test and Treat Policies?

OBJECTIVES

To estimate HIV prevalence, the number of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) and the undiagnosed proportion in the Netherlands for 2012, and to compare these with published 2007 estimates.

DESIGN

Synthesis of all available data sources.

METHODS

Multi-Parameter Evidence Synthesis (MPES) was used to obtain estimates in mutually exclusive key populations at higher risk in three geographical regions (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, rest of the Netherlands). Data sources included HIV prevalence surveys, diagnoses at STI clinics, and registered cases in HIV care. Group specific estimates were reported as Bayesian posterior medians and 95% credible intervals (CrI).

RESULTS

The 2012 model estimated 24,350 PLWHA (95% CrI 20,420-31,280) aged 15-70 years; 2,906 (+14%) more than in 2007. The estimated population HIV prevalence was 0.20% (95% CrI 0.17-0.26%). The overall proportion of undiagnosed HIV was lower in 2012 (34%, 95% CrI 22-49%) compared to 2007 (40%, 95% CrI 25-55%). After MSM, migrants from sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean formed the largest groups of PLWHA, but proportions of undiagnosed HIV remained high in these groups, 48% and 44% respectively. Amsterdam had lowest proportions undiagnosed for most key populations at higher risk, including MSM and migrants.

CONCLUSIONS

In 2012, the number of PLWHA was higher compared to 2007, while the proportion of undiagnosed HIV was lower, especially among MSM. Higher HIV testing rates, earlier treatment, and an improved life expectancy may explain these differences. HIV interventions need to be expanded in all key populations at higher risk, with special focus on migrants and key populationsliving outside of Amsterdam.