Rates and predictors of failure of first-line antiretroviral therapy and switch to second-line ART in South Africa

Onset and predictors of first-line antiretroviral therapy treatment failure among children in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

The emergence of First-line Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) regimens fails; it necessitates the use of more costly and less tolerable second-line medications. Therefore, it is crucial to identify and address factors that increase the likelihood of first-line ART regimen failure in children. Although numerous primary studies have examined the incidence of first-line ART failure among HIV-infected children in Ethiopia, national-level data on the onset and predictors remain inconsistent. Hence, this study was conducted to fill the gaps in determining the onset of first-line ART failure and its predictors among HIV-infected children in Ethiopia.

METHODS

Articles related to our topic of interest were searched using a systematic approach in national and international electronic databases. The retrospective follow-up cohort studies published in English up to 2022 were included. The data were extracted using a Microsoft Excel spread sheet and exported into Stata™ Version 17.0 for further management and analysis. The level of heterogeneity was quantified using I2 test together with a 95% confidence interval (CI). The incidence of the primary estimates was estimated using a random effects model in the Dersimonian-Lairedmethod. Subgroup analysis, Meta regression, and sensitivity analysis were computed to identify the source of heterogeneity but not explained. The predictors of first-line ART failure were explained using relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

Ten studies having a total of 5446 children were included. The pooled onset of first-line ART failure was 3.18 (95% CI: 1.91, 4.44) per 100 child-years of observations. Those study participants who began ART at an advanced WHO clinical stage at ART initiation had a 3.05 (95% CI: 1.47, 6.36), having poor ART adherence had a 2.19 (95% CI: 1.29, 3.70), and having TB-HIV coinfection at ART initiation had a 1.43 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.94) times higher chance of experiencing first-line ART failure than their corresponding counterparts.

CONCLUSION

The onset of first-line ART failure was high to achieve the 2030 UNAIDS target of ending the AIDS epidemic. Advanced WHO clinical stage, poor first-line ART adherence, and having TB-HIV coinfection were identified predictors. Hence, community HIV screening should continue to strengthen early ART initiation, and the attention of ART adherence should be kept to achieve ending the AIDS epidemic. The baseline tests and diagnosis, like TB diagnosis should be maintained for HIV-infected children while they begin ART.

Opportunistic infections among schoolchildren who were on antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

The most common and severe cause of morbidity and mortality among HIV- positive children is opportunistic infections (OIs). All HIV-infected children are at risk of developing a variety of OIs. Healthcare workers, programmers, and other stakeholders are in doubt about using the onset and predictors of OIs among schoolchildren on antiretroviral therapy (ART) due to the presence of conflicting results found in the primary studies. Hence, this study was conducted to provide a single figure of onset and specific predictors of OIs by overcoming the existing heterogeneity in Ethiopia.

Methods

The included studies were searched from different national and international databases systematically. The included studies were cohort in design and published in English between 2015 and 2022. The data were extracted using a validated Microsoft Excel tool after the quality of the included studies was assured. The extracted data were exported to Stata Version 17.0 for further management and analysis. The presence of heterogeneity across studies was checked using the Chi-square test and quantified using the I 2 test. Various methods, including forest plots, publication bias assessment, sensitivity tests, subgroup analysis, and meta-regression, were employed to determine the source of heterogeneity, but none were successful. The overall onset of OIs was estimated by pooling the incidence of primary studies using a random-effects meta-analysis model. The predictors were identified using meta-regression and the presence of significant association was declared using a p-value of 0.05 with 95% CI. The strength of association was reported using an adjusted hazard ratio with 95% CI.

Results

Eleven studies were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. The onset of OIs among schoolchildren on ART in Ethiopia was 5.58 (95% CI: 4.50, 6.67) per 100 children-years of OI-free observations. Those children who had no parents had a 1.41 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.80) times higher chance of getting OIs when compared with those children having one or both parents. Children who had poor ART adherence had a 2.96 (95% CI: 1.66, 5.29) times higher chance of experiencing OIs than children who had good ART adherence. Finally, the chance of experiencing OIs among rural children was 2.15 (95% CI: 1.63, 2.83) times higher than their counterparts in Ethiopia.

Conclusions

Three in every 33 schoolchildren on ART developed OIs in Ethiopia. Predictors of OIs included schoolchildren without parents, those with poor adherence to ART, and rural residents. This suggests that social support, medication adherence, and access to healthcare services may play important roles in preventing and controlling OIs among schoolchildren living with HIV in rural areas.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of community-led HIV self-testing among key populations in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, and Senegal

INTRODUCTION

HIV self-testing (HIVST) is a promising strategy to improve diagnosis coverage among key populations (KP). The ATLAS (Auto Test VIH, Libre d'Accéder à la connaissance de son Statut) programme implemented HIVST in three West African countries, distributing over 380,000 kits up between 2019 and 2021, focussing on community-led distribution by KP to their peers and subsequent secondary distribution to their partners and clients. We aim to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of community-led HIVST in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali and Senegal.

METHODS

An HIV transmission dynamics model was adapted and calibrated to country-specific epidemiological data and used to predict the impact of HIVST. We considered the distribution of HIVST among two KP-female sex workers (FSW), and men who have sex with men (MSM)-and their sexual partners and clients. We compared the cost-effectiveness of two scenarios against a counterfactual without HIVST over a 20-year horizon (2019-2039). The ATLAS-only scenario mimicked the 2-year implemented ATLAS programme, whereas the ATLAS-scale-up scenario achieved 95% coverage of HIVST distribution among FSW and MSM by 2025 onwards. The primary outcome is the number of disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) averted. Scenarios were compared using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Costing was performed using a healthcare provider's perspective. Costs were discounted at 4%, converted to $USD 2022 and estimated using a cost-function to accommodate economies of scale.

RESULTS

The ATLAS-only scenario was highly cost-effective over 20 years, even at low willingness-to-pay thresholds. The median ICERs were $126 ($88-$210) per DALY averted in Côte d'Ivoire, $92 ($88-$210) in Mali and 27$ ($88-$210) in Senegal. Scaling-up the ATLAS programme would also be cost-effective, and substantial epidemiological impacts would be achieved. The ICERs for the scale-up scenario were $199 ($122-$338) per DALY averted in Côte d'Ivoire, $224 ($118-$415) in Mali and $61 ($18-$128) in Senegal.

CONCLUSIONS

Both the implemented and the potential scale-up of community-led HIVST programmes in West Africa, where KP are important to overall transmission dynamics, have the potential to be highly cost-effective, as compared to a scenario without HIVST. These findings support the scale-up of community-led HIVST to reach populations that otherwise may not access conventional testing services.

Second-line anti-retroviral treatment failure and its predictors among patients with HIV in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) treatment failure remains a major public health concern, with multidimensional consequences, including an increased risk of drug resistance, compromised quality of life, and high healthcare costs. However, little is known about the outcomes of second-line ART in Ethiopia. Therefore, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to determine the incidence and determinants of second-line ART treatment failure. Articles published in PubMed, Google Scholar, Science Direct, and Scopus databases were systematically searched. All observational studies on the incidence and predictors of treatment failure among patients with HIV on second-line ART were included. A random-effects model was used to estimate the pooled incidence, and subgroup analysis was performed to identify the possible sources of heterogeneity. Publication bias was checked using forest plot, Begg's test, and Egger's test. The pooled odds ratio was also computed for associated factors. Seven studies with 3,962 study participants were included in this study. The pooled incidence of second-line antiretroviral treatment failure was 5.98 (95% CI: 4.32, 7.63) per 100 person-years of observation. Being in the advanced WHO clinical stage at switch (AHR = 2.98, 95% CI: 2.11, 4.25), having a CD4 count <100 cells/mm3 (AHR = 2.14, 95% CI: 1.57, 2.91), poor drug adherence (AHR = 1.78, 95% CI: 1.4, 2.25), and tuberculosis co-infection (AHR = 2.93, 95% CI: 1.93, 4.34) were risk factors for treatment failure. In conclusion, this study revealed that that out of 100 person-years of follow-up, an estimated six patients with HIV who were on second-line antiretroviral therapy experienced treatment failure. The risk of treatment failure was higher in patients who were in an advanced WHO clinical stage, CD4 count <100 cells/mm3, and presence tuberculosis co-infection. Therefore, addressing predictors reduces the risk of treatment failure and maximizes the duration of stay in second-line regimens.

Investigating rates and predictors of viral blips, low-level viraemia and virological failure in the Australian HIV observational database

OBJECTIVES

Australia has made significant progress towards achieving the UNAIDS's 95-95-95 cascade targets including HIV viral suppression. To investigate the burden of HIV viraemia, we assessed viral blips, low-level viraemia (LLV) and virologic failure (VF) in an Australian cohort.

METHODS

We studied the proportion of people with viral suppression, viral blips, LLV and VF in the Australian HIV observational database (AHOD) between 2010 and 2021. The association between blips or LLV, and VF was investigated using Cox regression, and predictors of viral blips and LLV were assessed using repeated-measured logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among 2544 AHOD participants who were in follow-up and on antiretroviral therapy (ART) from 1 January 2010 (88.7% male), 444 had experienced VF (incidence rate: 2.45 [95% CI: 2.23-2.69] per 100 person-years [PY]) during 18,125 PY of follow-up (a median of 7.6 years). The proportion of people with VF decreased over time, whereas rates of blips and LLV remained stable. Participants with blips (hazard ratio, 2.89; 95% CI: 2.31-3.61) and LLV (4.46; 95% CI: 3.38-5.89) were at increased risk of VF. Hepatitis B co-infection, longer documented treatment interruption duration, younger age and lower CD4 at ART initiation, and protease inhibitors-based initial regimen were associated with an increased risk of VF. Common predictors of blips and LLV such as higher HIV-1 RNA and lower CD4 at ART initiation, longer treatment interruption, more VL testing and types of care settings (hospitals vs. sexual health services) were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

Blips and LLV predict subsequent VF development. We identified important predictors of HIV viraemia including VF among individuals on INSTI-based regimens to help direct HIV management plans.

Biological parameters determining the effectiveness of monitoring of HIV / AIDS infected patients in Morocco

Background & objective

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) remains one of the world's most serious health challenges. The development of therapeutic regimens has significantly increased survival and reduced HIV-associated morbidities in HIV-infected individuals. However, some people living with HIV may not respond as expected, resulting in treatment failure. The objective of this study is to identify and characterize, by immunological (T-cell CD4) and virological (viral load) parameters, HIV infected patients with therapeutic failure in Morocco.

Methods

Prospective cross-sectional studies were conducted over a 5-years period (between January 2015 and December 2019) at the referral center of Ibn Zohr Hospital, Marrakech, Morocco. A total, of 1088 HIV-infected patients diagnosed by the rapid test (Immunochromatography) in addition to Western Blot analysis, was recruited. All patients were under the antiretroviral therapy (ART) for at least six months and followed every six months. Sociodemographic, clinical, and biological data as well as information on patient adherence were collected.

Results

Out of 1088 patients, 92.46% were under treatment based on non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) including 26.20% first line first intention and 66.26% first line second intention, and 7.54% of patients on a protease inhibitor (PI) therapy. Regarding the immunological and virological status, 76% of HIV-infected patients had a CD4 count > 200 cells/µl and 24% had a CD4 count < 200 cells / µl, while 69.5% had an undetectable viral load and 30.05% had a detectable viral load (including 11.86% with viral load < 1000 copies / ml and 18.20% viral load > 1000 copies / ml) (P-values < 0.05).

Conclusion

In our study, we showed a therapeutic failure rate of 18.2% in HIV-infected patients under treatment in Marrakech region. These failures were mainly related to poor adherence and low CD4+ rates at the initiation of treatment. We concluded that immunological monitoring alone is insufficient to predict virological suppression and therapeutic success. Consequently, we recommend the HIV plasma viral load test be accessible as a routine exam.

Seemingly Unrelated Regression Analysis of the Cost and Health-Related Quality of Life Outcomes of the REVAMP Randomized Clinical Trial

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the 9-month cost and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) outcomes of resistance versus viral load testing strategies to manage virological failure in low-middle income countries.

METHODS

We analyzed secondary outcomes from the REVAMP clinical trial: a pragmatic, open label, parallel-arm randomized trial investigating resistance versus viral load testing for individuals failing first-line treatment in South Africa and Uganda. We collected resource data, valued according to local cost data and used the 3-level version of EQ-5D to measure HRQOL at baseline and 9 months. We applied seemingly unrelated regression equations to account for the correlation between cost and HRQOL. We conducted intention-to-treat analyses with multiple imputation using chained equations for missing data and performed sensitivity analyses using complete cases.

RESULTS

For South Africa, resistance testing and opportunistic infections were associated with statistically significantly higher total costs, and virological suppression was associated with lower total cost. Higher baseline utility, higher cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) count, and virological suppression were associated with better HRQOL. For Uganda, resistance testing and switching to second-line treatment were associated with higher total cost, and higher CD4 was associated with lower total cost. Higher baseline utility, higher CD4 count, and virological suppression were associated with better HRQOL. Sensitivity analyses of the complete-case analysis confirmed the overall results.

CONCLUSION

Resistance testing showed no cost or HRQOL advantage in South Africa or Uganda over the 9-month REVAMP clinical trial.

Predictors of first-line antiretroviral treatment failure among children on antiretroviral therapy at the University of Gondar comprehensive specialised hospital, North-west, Ethiopia: a 14-year long-term follow-up study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the incidence and predictors of first-line human immune deficiency virus treatment failure among human immune deficiency virus-infected children at the University of Gondar comprehensive specialised hospital in Ethiopia.

DESIGN

A retrospective follow-up study.

SETTING

University of Gondar comprehensive specialised hospital, North-west, Ethiopia.

PARTICIPANTS

Children were among the HIV infected from January 2005 to December 2018. There were 336 children included in the study. The data were entered into EPi Info V.7.2 and then exported to STATA V.14.0 Software for analysis. Both bivariable and multivariable analyses with Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify the predictors of treatment failure.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Predictors of first-line antiretroviral treatment failure among children on antiretroviral therapy (ART) during 14 years long-term follow-up study.

RESULT

A total of 336 human immunodeficiency virus-infected children participated in this study with 27 058 child years of observation. The overall incidence rate was 2.1 (95% CI 1.57 to 2.78) per 100 child years. Poor adherence (adjusted HR (AHR); 6.5 (95% CI 2.03 to 21.39)), fair adherence (AHR; 6.55 (95% CI 2.64 to 16.53), the presence of opportunistic infection (AHR; 4.22 (95% CI 1.44 to 12.30), clinical staging of III/IV (AHR; 3.08 (95% CI 1.17 to 8.08) and a baseline CD4 count less than 200 cells/mm³ (AHR; 3.61 (95% CI 1.12 to 11.54)).

CONCLUSION

The incidence of first-line ART failure was found to be high. Baseline opportunistic infection, poor and fair adherence, advanced WHO clinical staging III/IV and a CD4 count less than 200 cells/mm³ were all predictors of first-line treatment failure. Early identification of associated factors and monitoring treatment failure has to be important for the optimal management of HIV-infected children who are receiving ART and to prevent further complications.

First line antiretroviral treatment failure and its association with drug substitution and sex among children in Ethiopia: systematic review and meta-analysis

Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) has significantly decreased HIV-related morbidity and mortality among children despite the issue of drug resistance and subsequent treatment failure appearing as a challenge. Different studies have been conducted in Ethiopia regarding the prevalence of first-line ART failure among children but the magnitudes of these studies were inconsistent and had great variability. This review aimed to estimate the pooled prevalence of first line ART failure among children and its association with drug substitution and sex of children among first-line ART users in Ethiopia. The review was conducted using both published and unpublished studies until September 2020 in Ethiopia. MEDLINE, PubMed, Hinari, Web of Science, Google Scholar, Africa journal online (AJOL), Open gray literature, and online repository articles were searched. The quality of individual studies was assessed by Joanna Briggs Institute's (JBI) critical appraisal checklist. The statistical analysis was done by STATA-14 software and a random effect model was used. Heterogeneity was assessed using forest plot Cochrane Q-test and I-squared statistic. Publication bias was checked by using a funnel plot and Egger's and Begg's statistical tests. The interpretation was made by an odds ratio and with their respective 95% confidence intervals. The heterogeneity rate was 90% and Begg's and Egger's for publication bias were insignificant with p-values of 0.89 and 0.11 respectively. The pooled prevalence of pediatric first line ART failure in Ethiopia was 14.98% (95% CI 11.74, 18.21). Subgroup analysis showed that the highest failure rate was virological (9.13%). Female children had 1.4 times more risk of first-line ART failure (OR = 1.42; 95% CI 1.08, 1.85). First-line ART failure among children in Ethiopia is considerably high. Being female increases the likelihood of facing first line ART failure. More attention should be given to female children.

Predictors of unsuppressed viral load among adults on follow up of antiretroviral therapy at selected public and private health facilities of Adama town: unmached case-control study

BACKGROUND

Despite the scale up of antiretroviral therapy (ART), unsuppressed viral load among population taking ART in private and public health facilities is still a public health concern increasing the risk of treatment failure. Studies comprehensively assessing significant predictors of non-suppressed viral load among patients on follow up of AR in public and private health facilities are limited. The objective of the study was to identify predictors of unsuppressed viral load among adult patients taking antiretroviral therapy at selected public and private health facilities of Adama town, East shewa zone, Ethiopia.

METHODS

An unmatched case-control study was conducted from April 15 /2021 to May 20/2021. A total sample size of 347 patients consisting 116 cases and 231 controls was selected from electronic database among patients who started ART from September 2015 to August 2020. Data were collected using checklist from patient medical records and analyzed by SPSS. The association of dependent and independent variables was determined using multivariate analysis with 95% confidence interval and P - value in logistic regression model to identify independent predictors.

RESULT

From the total 347 participants, 140 (40.3%) of them were males and 207 (59.7%) were females. In multivariate logistic regression, CD4 count < 100 [(AOR:1.22, 95% CI: 1.4-7.3)], CD4 100-200[(AOR: 2.58 95% CI: 1.06-8.28)], Fair Adherence [(AOR: 2.44, 95% CI: 1.67-4.82)], poor adherence [(AOR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.7-6.73)], History of Cotrimoxazole Therapy (CPT) use and not used [(AOR: 2.60, 95% CI: 1.23-5.48)] and History of drug substitution [(AOR:. 361, 95% CI: .145-.897)] were independent predictors of unsuppressed viral load with the p-value less than 0.05.

CONCLUSION AND COMMENDATION

In this study, Baseline CD4, adherence, History of CPT used and history of drug substitution was predictors of unsuppressed viral load. Monitoring immunological response through scheduled CD4 tests is essential to maintain immunity of the patients preventing diseases progression. Intensive adherence support and counseling should conclusively be provided through effective implementation of ART programs by providers would enhance viral suppression ensuring the quality of care and treatment.

Effect of Switching Antiretroviral Treatment Regimen in Patients With Drug-Resistant HIV-1 Infection: Retrospective Observational Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Evidence on the efficacy of antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimen switches on the mortality of patients with HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) is limited.

OBJECTIVE

We aim to provide policy guidance for ART regimen selection and evaluate the effectiveness of ART regime switches for people living with HIV and HIV-1 drug resistance.

METHODS

This retrospective observational cohort study included 179 people living with HIV and HIV-1 drug resistance from 2011 to 2020. The time that participants switched treatment regimens either to protease inhibitor (PI)-based ART regimens (PIs) or nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based ART regimens (NNRTIs) was taken as an observation starting point and followed up every 12 months. The parametric g-formula was used to estimate the 5-year risk of mortality under the situations of (1) natural course, (2) immediate switch to NNRTIs, (3) immediate switch to PIs, and (4) if CD4(+) T cells<200 switched to PIs.

RESULTS

The follow-up time of the 179 patients ranged from 30 to 119 months. The median follow-up time was 90 months. During a follow-up of 15,606 person-months, 27 individuals died in the cohort. The estimated 5-year risk of mortality under natural course, immediate switch to NNRTIs, immediate switch to PIs, and if CD4(+), and switch to PIs if T cells<200 were 11.62% (95% CI 7.82-17.11), 31.88% (95% CI 20.79-44.94), 2.87% (95% CI 0.32-7.07), and 5.30% (95% CI 2.07-10.21), respectively. The risk ratios (RRs) of immediate switch to NNRTIs, immediate switch to PIs, and switch to PIs if CD4(+) T cells<200, compared with natural course mortality rate, were 2.74 (95% CI 2.01-3.47), 0.25 (95% CI: 0.04-0.54), and 0.46 (95% CI 0.22-0.71), respectively. The risk differences were 20.26% (95% CI 10.96-28.61), -8.76% (95% CI -13.34 to -5.09) and -6.32% (95% CI -9.75 to -3.11), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study found that a PI-based ART regimen was beneficial for reducing mortality in people living with HIV and HIV-1 drug resistance. More effort should be given to find HIV-1 drug resistance earlier to ensure a timely adjustment to PI-based ART, thereby maximizing the benefit of early switch treatment for people living with HIV and HIV-1 drug resistance.

Point-of-care viral load tests to detect high HIV viral load in people living with HIV/AIDS attending health facilities

BACKGROUND

Viral load (VL) testing in people living with HIV (PLHIV) helps to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART). VL is still largely tested using central laboratory-based platforms, which have long test turnaround times and involve sophisticated equipment. VL tests with point-of-care (POC) platforms capable of being used near the patient are potentially easy to use, give quick results, are cost-effective, and could replace central or reference VL testing platforms.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the diagnostic accuracy of POC tests to detect high viral load levels in PLHIV attending healthcare facilities.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched eight electronic databases using standard, extensive Cochrane search methods, and did not use any language, document type, or publication status limitations. We also searched the reference lists of included studies and relevant systematic reviews, and consulted an expert in the field from the World Health Organization (WHO) HIV Department for potentially relevant studies. The latest search was 23 November 2020.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included any primary study that compared the results of a VL test with a POC platform to that of a central laboratory-based reference test to detect high viral load in PLHIV on HIV/AIDS care or follow-up. We included all forms of POC tests for VL as defined by study authors, regardless of the healthcare facility in which the test was conducted. We excluded diagnostic case-control studies with healthy controls and studies that did not provide sufficient data to create the 2 × 2 tables to calculate sensitivity and specificity. We did not limit our study inclusion to age, gender, or geographical setting.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened the titles, abstracts, and full texts of the search results to identify eligible articles. They also independently extracted data using a standardized data extraction form and conducted risk of bias assessment using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool. Using participants as the unit of analysis, we fitted simplified univariable models for sensitivity and specificity separately, employing a random-effects model to estimate the summary sensitivity and specificity at the current and commonly reported World Health Organization (WHO) threshold (≥ 1000 copies/mL). The bivariate models did not converge to give a model estimate.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified 18 studies (24 evaluations, 10,034 participants) defining high viral loads at main thresholds ≥ 1000 copies/mL (n = 20), ≥ 5000 copies/mL (n = 1), and ≥ 40 copies/mL (n = 3). All evaluations were done on samples from PLHIV retrieved from routine HIV/AIDS care centres or health facilities. For clinical applicability, we included 14 studies (20 evaluations, 8659 participants) assessing high viral load at the clinical threshold of ≥ 1000 copies/mL in the meta-analyses. Of these, sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, and Asia contributed 16, three, and one evaluation respectively. All included participants were on ART in only nine evaluations; in the other 11 evaluations the proportion of participants on ART was either partial or not clearly stated. Thirteen evaluations included adults only (n = 13), five mixed populations of adults and children, whilst in the remaining two the age of included populations was not clearly stated. The majority of evaluations included commercially available tests (n = 18). Ten evaluations were POC VL tests conducted near the patient in a peripheral or onsite laboratory, whilst the other 10 were evaluations of POC VL tests in a central or reference laboratory setting. The test types evaluated as POC VL tests included Xpert HIV-1 Viral Load test (n = 8), SAMBA HIV-1 Semi-Q Test (n = 9), Alere Q NAT prototype assay for HIV-1 (n = 2) and m-PIMA HIV-1/2 Viral Load test (n = 1). The majority of evaluations (n = 17) used plasma samples, whilst the rest (n = 3) utilized whole blood samples. Pooled sensitivity (95% confidence interval (CI)) of POC VL at a threshold of ≥ 1000 copies/mL was 96.6% (94.8 to 97.8) (20 evaluations, 2522 participants), and pooled specificity (95% CI) was 95.7% (90.8 to 98.0) (20 evaluations, 6137 participants). Median prevalence for high viral load (≥ 1000 copies/mL) (n = 20) was 33.4% (range 6.9% to 88.5%). Limitations The risk of bias was mostly assessed as unclear across the four domains due to incomplete reporting.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We found POC VL to have high sensitivity and high specificity for the diagnosis of high HIV viral load in PLHIV attending healthcare facilities at a clinical threshold of ≥ 1000 copies/mL.

HIV-1 drug resistance in adults and adolescents on protease inhibitor-based antiretroviral treatment in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa

BACKGROUND

In low- and middle-income countries, increasing levels of HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) on second-line protease inhibitor (PI)-based regimens are a cause for concern, given limited drug options for third-line antiretroviral therapy (ART).

OBJECTIVES

We conducted a retrospective analysis of routine HIV-1 genotyping laboratory data from KwaZulu-Natal, in South Africa, to describe the frequency and patterns of HIVDR mutations and their consequent impact on standardized third-line regimens.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional analysis of all HIV-1 genotypic resistance tests conducted by the National Health Laboratory Service in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa (Jan 2015 - Dec 2016), for adults and adolescents (age ≥10 years) on second-line PI-based ART with virological failure. We assigned a third-line regimen to each record, based on a national treatment algorithm and calculated the genotypic susceptibility score (GSS) for that regimen.

RESULTS

Of 348 samples analyzed, 287 (83%) had at least one drug resistance mutation (DRM) and 114 (33%) had at least one major PI DRM. Major PI resistance was associated with longer duration on second-line ART (aOR per 6-months, 1.11, 95% CI 1.04-1.19) and older age (aOR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05). Of 112 patients requiring third-line ART, 12 (11%) had a GSS of <2 for the algorithm-assigned third-line regimen.

CONCLUSIONS

One in three people failing second-line ART had significant PI DRMs. A subgroup of these individuals had extensive HIVDR, where the predicted activity of third-line ART was suboptimal, highlighting the need for continuous evaluation of outcomes on third-line regimens and close monitoring for emergent HIV-1 integrase-inhibitor resistance.

Magnitude and associated factors of anemia among AZT based HAART experienced adult HIV patients at University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Referral Hospital, Northwest, Ethiopia, 2019: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Anemia is the most common hematologic abnormalities in AIDS patients usually associated with disease progression and poor clinical outcomes. Zidovudine (AZT), which is one of the nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor drug families of the first line antiretroviral therapy regimen for HIV/AIDS patients, causes anemia due to early long-term of higher-dose therapy. This study was aimed to assess the magnitude and associated factors of anemia among AZT containing HAART experienced adult HIV/ADIS patients at University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Referral Hospital, northwest, Ethiopia, 2019.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted among a total of 320 adult AZT based HAART experienced HIV/AIDS patients from January 2016 to December 2018. Systematic random sampling technique was used to select the patients’ charts. All required data for this study were extracted from patients’ medical charts. Data were coded, cleared and entered into Epi Info version 3.5.3, and transformed to SPSS version 20 for analysis. Descriptive statistics, bivariable and multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to identify associated factors of anemia and P-value < 0.05 was considered as statistically significance.

Results

A total of 320 adult AZT based HAART experienced HIV/AIDS patients’ charts were assessed. Of the total patients, 198 (61.9%) were females and 133 (41.6%) were within the age range of 35–45 years. More than half, 237(76.9%) of the patients were from the urban area and 186 (58.1%) were on WHO clinical stage III at the baseline. The prevalence of anemia was 50% (95% CI 44.7–55.0%), 44.1% (95% CI 38.4–50.0%), 35.6% (95% CI 30.3–40.6%), 40% (95% CI 34.4–45.6%), 40.6% (95% CI 35.0–46.3) and 39.1% (95% CI 33.4–44.1%) at baseline, 6 months, 12 months, 18 months, 24 months and 30 months of follow-up period, respectively. The overall prevalence of anemia was 41.6%. Anemia had significant association with WHO clinical stage and base line Hgb values.

Conclusions

A significant number of participants were anemic in this study. WHO clinical stage and baseline Hgb value were the contributing factors for anemia among these patients. Therefore, anemia needs an immediate intervention on associated factor to improve the anemic status and living condition of HIV patient.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06712-5.

Determinants of switch to paediatric second-line antiretroviral therapy after first-line failure in Cameroon

OBJECTIVE

With scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) children, treatment failure and switch to subsequent ART regimens are common. Our objectives were to evaluate switching practices and identify factors associated among children and adolescents failing their first-line ART.

METHODS

A facility-based survey study was conducted in a cohort of children living with HIV experiencing virological failure (VF) at the Essos Hospital Centre of Yaounde, Cameroon. Data were collected using a standard questionnaire, and key variables were as follows: (a) VF defined as viral load (VL) > 1000 copies/ml, (b) rate of switch to second-line and (c) reason(s) for switching ART. Odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was used to assess the association between study variables, and P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

A total of 106 children experiencing VF were enrolled: median age was 8 [interquartile range (IQR): 3-15] years; 60.38% were boys and 39.62% were orphans of one/both parents. A proportion of 69% were at the WHO clinical stage III/IV, and 13.21% were experiencing immunological failure (CD4 < 200 cells/mm³ ). The median duration on first-line ART was 36 [IQR: 7-157] months prior to detecting VF, and the rate of switch to second-line ART was 70.75% (75/106). Delay in switching ART after a confirmed VF was 11 [IQR: 7-16] months. After switch to second-line ART, the median time to achieve undetectable VL (<40 copies/ml) was 14 [IQR: 9-21] months. Multivariate analysis revealed that only children with viral rebound (aOR = 0.09; 95% CI = 0.03-0.24) were less likely to be switched. Of note, being orphaned (aOR = 0.35, CI = 0.11-1.11), biological sex (aOR = 1.77, CI = 0.60-5.29) and immune status (aOR = 0.19, CI = 0.03-1.31, 0.09) had no significant effect on switching to second-line ART.

CONCLUSION

In this paediatric population experiencing VF after about 3-4 years from ART initiation, the majority are switched to second-line ART after a delay of almost one year. Delayed switch to second-line was driven essentially by viral rebound, underscoring the need for close viral monitoring.

Predictors of virological failure among people living with HIV receiving first line antiretroviral treatment in Myanmar: retrospective cohort analysis

Background

Progress toward the global target for 95% virological suppression among those on antiretroviral treatment (ART) is still suboptimal. We describe the viral load (VL) cascade, the incidence of virological failure and associated risk factors among people living with HIV receiving first-line ART in an HIV cohort in Myanmar treated by the Médecins Sans Frontières in collaboration with the Ministry of Health and Sports Myanmar.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study, including adult patients with at least one HIV viral load test result and having received of at least 6 months’ standard first-line ART. The incidence rate of virological failure (HIV viral load ≥ 1000 copies/mL) was calculated. Multivariable Cox’s regression was performed to identify risk factors for virological failure.

Results

We included 25,260 patients with a median age of 33.1 years (interquartile range, IQR 28.0–39.1) and a median observation time of 5.4 years (IQR 3.7–7.9). Virological failure was documented in 3,579 (14.2%) participants, resulting in an overall incidence rate for failure of 2.5 per 100 person-years of follow-up. Among those who had a follow-up viral load result, 1,258 (57.1%) had confirmed virological failure, of which 836 (66.5%) were switched to second-line treatment. An increased hazard for failure was associated with age ≤ 19 years (adjusted hazard ratio, aHR 1.51; 95% confidence intervals, CI 1.20–1.89; p < 0.001), baseline tuberculosis (aHR 1.39; 95% CI 1.14–1.49; p < 0.001), a history of low-level viremia (aHR 1.60; 95% CI 1.42–1.81; p < 0.001), or a history of loss-to-follow-up (aHR 1.24; 95% CI 1.41–1.52; p = 0.041) and being on the same regimen (aHR 1.37; 95% CI 1.07–1.76; p < 0.001). Cumulative appointment delay was not significantly associated with failure after controlling for covariates.

Conclusions

VL monitoring is an important tool to improve programme outcomes, however limited coverage of VL testing and acting on test results hampers its full potential. In our cohort children and adolescents, PLHIV with history of loss-to-follow-up or those with low-viremia are at the highest risk of virological failure and might require more frequent virological monitoring than is currently recommended.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12981-021-00336-0.

Predictors of failure on second-line antiretroviral therapy with protease inhibitor mutations in Uganda

Introduction

Failure on second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) with protease inhibitor (PI) mutations (VF-M) is on the rise. However, there is a paucity of information on the factors associated with this observation in low-income countries. Knowledge of underlying factors is critical if we are to minimize the number of PLHIV switched to costly third-line ART. Our study investigated the factors associated with VF-M.

Methods

We conducted a matched case–control analysis of patients' records kept at the Joint Clinical Research Center, starting from January 2008 to May 2018. We matched records of patients who failed the second-line ART with major PI mutations (cases) with records of patients who were virologically suppressed (controls) by a ratio of 1:3. Data analysis was conducted using STATA Version 14. Categorical variables were compared with the outcomes

failure on second-line ART with PI mutations using the Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests where appropriate. Conditional logistic regression for paired data was used to assess the association between the outcome and exposure variables, employing the backward model building procedure.

Results

Of the 340 reviewed patients' records, 53% were women, and 6.2% had previous tuberculosis treatment. Males (aOR = 2.58, [CI 1.42–4.69]), and patients concurrently on tuberculosis treatment while on second-line ART (aOR = 5.65, [CI 1.76–18.09]) had higher odds of VF-M. ART initiation between 2001 and 2015 had lower odds of VF-M relative to initiation before the year 2001.

Conclusion

Males and patients concomitantly on tuberculosis treatment while on second-line ART are at a higher risk of VF-M. HIV/AIDS response programs should give special attention to this group of people if we are to minimize the need for expensive third-line ART. We recommend more extensive, explorative studies to ascertain underlying factors.

Modelling the effect of market forces on the impact of introducing human immunodeficiency virus pre-exposure prophylaxis among female sex workers

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to prevent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) enables female sex workers (FSWs) to protect themselves from HIV without relying on clients using condoms. Yet, because PrEP reduces HIV risk, financial incentives to not use condoms may lead to risk compensation: reductions in condom use and/or increases in commercial sex, and may reduce the price of unprotected sex. In this analysis, we integrate market forces into a dynamic HIV transmission model to assess how risk compensation could change the impact of PrEP among FSWs and clients. We parameterise how sexual behavior may change with PrEP use among FSWs using stated preference data combined with economic theory. Our projections suggest the impact of PrEP is sensitive to risk compensatory behaviors driven by changes in the economics of sex work. Condom substitution could reduce the impact of PrEP on HIV incidence by 55%, while increases in the frequency of commercial sex to counter decreases in the price charged for unprotected sex among PrEP users could entirely mitigate the impact of PrEP. Accounting for competition between PrEP users and nonusers exacerbates this further. Alternative scenarios where increases in unprotected sex among PrEP users are balanced by decreases in non-PrEP users have the opposite effect, resulting in PrEP having much greater impact. Intervention studies need to determine how HIV prevention products may change the economics of sex work and provision of unprotected sex to enable a better understanding of their impact.

Estimating qualification and factors associated with third-line antiretroviral therapy referral in the Western Cape

Background

South Africa’s antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme is the largest globally and the universal test-and-treat policy is expected to increase the numbers on ART. This may have implications for treatment failure rates implying a greater future need for third-line regimens. South Africa initiated a third-line programme in 2013. However, there is little evidence quantifying the third-line need in this setting and the programme itself has not been formally evaluated.

Objectives

The study evaluated the third-line ART referral process in the Western Cape.

Method

Routinely collected data were analysed to derive an estimate of patients meeting criteria for third-line referral and compared with patients who were referred. Factors associated with referral were identified.

Results

In the study period, 947 patients met criteria for third-line referral and 167 patients were referred. Comparison revealed a poor overlap of only 42 patients. In multivariate analysis, factors associated with referral included receiving care at a hospital rather than a primary healthcare facility (adjusted odd ratios [aOR] = 2.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1–4.2), a higher number of viral load [VLs] ≥ 1000 copies/mL whilst on a protease inhibitor (PI) (aOR = 1.2, 95% CI 1.01–1.42) and a greater number of years on a PI (aOR = 1.25, 95% CI 1.07–1.46). Patients with a 6-month gap in dispensing were less likely to be referred (aOR = 0.37, 95% CI 0.17–0.81).

Conclusion

This study adds to a limited body of knowledge regarding third-line ART programmes. The findings indicate missed opportunities for and inappropriate referral of patients. Factors associated with referral were largely health system related. Clinician awareness and compliance with referral remain unknown and may be contributory.

Reduced efficacy of HIV-1 integrase inhibitors in patients with drug resistance mutations in reverse transcriptase

Little is known about the impact of pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) on the efficacy of second generation integrase inhibitors. We sequenced pretreatment plasma specimens from the ADVANCE trial (NCT03122262). Our primary outcome was 96-week virologic success, defined as a sustained viral load <1000 copies/mL from 12 weeks onwards, <200 copies/mL from 24 weeks onwards, and <50 copies/mL after 48 weeks. Here we report how this outcome was impacted by PDR, defined by the World Health Organization (WHO) mutation list. Of 1053 trial participants, 874 (83%) have successful sequencing, including 289 (33%) randomized to EFV-based therapy and 585 (67%) randomized to DTG-based therapy. Fourteen percent (122/874) have ≥1 WHO-defined mutation, of which 98% (120/122) are NNRTI mutations. Rates of virologic suppression are lower in the total cohort among those with PDR 65% (73/112) compared to those without PDR (85% [605/713], P < 0.001), and for those on EFV-based treatment (60% [12/20] vs 86% [214/248], P = 0.002) and for those on DTG-based treatment (61/92 [66%] vs 84% [391/465] P < 0.001, P for interaction by regimen 0.49). Results are similar in multivariable models adjusted for clinical characteristics and adherence. NNRTI resistance prior to treatment is associated with long-term failure of integrase inhibitor-containing first-line regimens, and portends high rates of first-line failure in sub Saharan Africa.

Impact of Viral Load Monitoring on Retention and Viral Suppression: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of South Africa's National Laboratory Cohort

South African guidelines recommend repeat viral load testing within 6 months when human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) viral loads exceed 1,000 copies/mL. We assessed whether South African facilities follow viral load monitoring guidelines and whether guidelines improve HIV-related outcomes, using a regression discontinuity design in a national HIV cohort of 174,574 patients (2013-2015). We assessed whether patients with viral loads just above versus just below 1,000 copies/mL were more likely to receive repeat testing in 6 months, and we compared differences in clinic transfers, retention, and viral suppression. The majority (67%) of patients with viral loads of >1,000 copies/mL did not receive repeat testing within 6 months, and these patients were 8.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 6.2, 9.7) more likely to receive repeat testing compared with ≤1,000 copies/mL. Eligibility for repeat testing (>1,000 copies/mL) was associated with greater 12-month retention (risk difference = 2.9%, 95% CI: 0.6, 5.2) and combined suppression and retention (risk difference = 5.8%, 95% CI: 3.0, 8.6). Patients with viral loads of >1,000 copies/mL who actually received repeat testing were 85.2% more likely to be both retained and virally suppressed at 12 months (95% CI: 35.9, 100.0). Viral load monitoring might improve patient outcomes, but most patients with elevated viral loads do not receive monitoring within recommended timelines.

Increased Mortality With Delayed and Missed Switch to Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa

BACKGROUND

After failure of first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the public sector, delayed or missed second-line ART switch is linked with poor outcomes in patients with advanced HIV.

SETTING

We investigated delayed or missed second-line ART switch after confirmed virologic failure in the largest private sector HIV cohort in Africa.

METHODS

We included HIV-infected adults with confirmed virologic failure after 6 months of nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor-based ART. We estimated the effect of timing of switch on the hazard of death using inverse probability of treatment weighting of marginal structural models. We adjusted for time-dependent confounding of CD4 count, viral load, and visit frequency.

RESULTS

Five thousand seven hundred forty-eight patients (53% female) with confirmed virologic failure met inclusion criteria; the median age was 40 [interquartile range (IQR): 35-47], advanced HIV was present in 48% and the prior duration of nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor-based ART was 1083 days (IQR: 665-1770). Median time to confirmation of virologic failure and to second-line switch was 196 (IQR: 136-316) and 220 days (IQR: 65-542), respectively. Switching to second-line ART after confirmed failure compared with remaining on first-line ART reduced risk of subsequent death [adjusted hazard ratio: 0.47 (95% confidence interval: 0.36 to 0.63)]. Compared with patients who experienced delayed switch, those switched immediately had a lower risk of death, regardless of CD4 cell count.

CONCLUSIONS

Delayed or missed switch to second-line ART after confirmed first-line ART failure is common in the South African private sector and associated with mortality. Novel interventions to minimize switch delay should be tested and not limited to those with advanced disease at treatment failure.

Predictors of first-line antiretroviral therapy failure among adults and adolescents living with HIV/AIDS in a large prevention and treatment program in Nigeria

Background

A substantial number of persons living with HIV (PLWH) in Nigeria do not experience durable viral suppression on first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART). Understanding risk factors for first-line treatment failure informs patient monitoring practices and distribution of limited resources for second-line regimens. We determined predictors of immunologic and virologic failures in a large ART delivery program in Abuja, Nigeria.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted at the University of Abuja Teaching Hospital, a tertiary health care facility, using data from February 2005 to December 2014 in Abuja, Nigeria. All PLWH aged ≥ 15 years who initiated ART with at least 6-month follow-up and one CD4 measurement were included. Immunologic failure was defined as a CD4 decrease to or below pre-ART level or persistent CD4 < 100 cells per mm³ after 6 months on ART. Virologic failure (VF) was defined as two consecutive HIV-1 RNA levels > 1000 copies/mL after at least 6 months of ART and enhanced adherence counselling. HIV drug resistance (Sanger sequences) was analyzed using the Stanford HIV database algorithm and scored for resistance to common nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs). Univariate and multivariate log binomial regression models were used to estimate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results

Of 12,452 patients followed, a total of 5928 initiated ART with at least 6 months of follow-up and one CD4 measurement. The entry point for 3924 (66.2%) was through the program’s own voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) center, while 1310 (22.1%) were referred from an outside clinic/program, 332 (5.6%) in-patients, and 373 (6.3%) through other entry points including prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) and transferred from other programs. The mean CD4 at enrollment in care was 268 ± 23.7 cells per mm³, and the mean HIV-1 RNA was 3.3 ± 1.3.log₁₀ copies/mL. A total of 3468 (80.5%) received nevirapine (NVP) and 2260 (19.5%) received efavirenz (EFV)—based regimens. A total of 2140 (36.1%) received tenofovir (TDF); 2662 (44.9%) zidovudine (AZT); and 1126 (19.0%) stavudine (d4T). Among those receiving TDF, 45.0% also received emtricitabine (FTC). In a multivariate model, immunologic failure was more common among PLWH with female gender as compared to male [RR (95% CI) 1.22 (1.07–1.40)] and less common among those who entered care at the program’s VCT center as compared to other entry points [0.79 (0.64–0.91)], WHO stage 3/4 as compared to 1/2 [0.19 (0.16–0.22)], or CD4 200 + cells per mm³ as compared to lower [0.19 (0.16–0.22)]. Virologic failure was more common among PLWH who entered care at the program’s VCT center as compared to other entry points [RR (95% CI) 1.45 (1.11–1.91) and those with CD4 < 200 cells per mm³ at entry into care as compared to higher [1.71 (1.36–2.16)]. Of 198 patient-derived samples sequenced during virologic failure, 42 (21%) were wild-type; 145 (73%) carried NNRTI drug resistance mutations; 151 (76.3%) M184I/V; 29 (14.6%) had ≥ 3 TAMs, and 37 (18.7%) had K65R, of whom all were on TDF-containing first-line regimens.

Conclusions

In this cohort of Nigerian PLWH followed for a period of 9 years, immunologic criteria poorly predicted virologic failure. Furthermore, a subset of samples showed that patients failing ART for extended periods of time had HIV-1 strains harboring drug resistance mutations.

Evaluating the impact of antiretroviral and antiseizure medication interactions on treatment effectiveness among outpatient clinic attendees with HIV in Zambia

OBJECTIVE

Interactions between enzyme-inducing anti-seizure medications (EI-ASMs) and antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) can lead to decreased ARV levels and may increase the likelihood of viral resistance. We conducted a study to determine if co-usage of ARVs and EI-ASMs is associated with ARV-resistant human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) among people living with HIV in Zambia.

METHODS

Eligible participants were ≥18 years of age and concurrently taking ASMs and ARVs for at least 1 month of the prior 6-month period. Data were obtained regarding medication and HIV history. CD4 counts, plasma viral loads (pVLs), and HIV genotype and resistance profile in participants with a pVL >1000 copies/mL were obtained. Pearson's test of independence was used to determine whether treatment with EI-ASM was associated with pVL >1000/mL copies.

RESULTS

Of 50 participants, 41 (82%) were taking carbamazepine (37 on monotherapy), and all had stable regimens in the prior 6 months. Among the 13 ARV regimens used, 68% had a tenofovir/lamivudine backbone. The majority (94%) were on a stable ARV regimen for >6 months. Median CD4 nadir was 205 cells/mm³ (interquartile range [IQR] 88-389), and 60% of participants had commenced ARV treatment before advanced disease occurred. Mean CD4 count at enrollment was 464 cells/mm³ (SD 226.3). Seven participants (14%) had a CD4 count <200 cells/mm³ . Four (8%) had a pVL >1000 copies/mL; all were on carbamazepine. Three participants with elevated pVL had a CD4 count <200 cells/mm³ . None had documented adherence concerns by providers; however, two had events concerning for clinical failure. HIV genotype testing showed mutations in three participants. Carbamazepine was not found to correlate with elevated pVL (P = .58).

SIGNIFICANCE

EI-ASMs are commonly used in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite concurrent use of EI-ASMs and ARVs, the majority of participants showed CD4 counts >200 cells/mm³ and were virally suppressed. Carbamazepine was not associated with an increased risk of virological failure or ARV-resistant HIV.

The Impact of Delayed Switch to Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy on Mortality, Depending on Definition of Failure Time and CD4 Count at Failure

Little is known about the functional relationship of delaying second-line treatment initiation for human immunodeficiency virus-positive patients and mortality, given a patient's immune status. We included 7,255 patients starting antiretroviral therapy during 2004-2017, from 9 South African cohorts, with virological failure and complete baseline data. We estimated the impact of switch time on the hazard of death using inverse probability of treatment weighting of marginal structural models. The nonlinear relationship between month of switch and the 5-year survival probability, stratified by CD4 count at failure, was estimated with targeted maximum likelihood estimation. We adjusted for measured time-varying confounding by CD4 count, viral load, and visit frequency. Five-year mortality was estimated to be 10.5% (95% CI: 2.2, 18.8) for immediate switch and to be 26.6% (95% CI: 20.9, 32.3) for no switch (51.1% if CD4 count was <100 cells/mm3). The hazard of death was estimated to be 0.37 (95% CI: 0.30, 0.46) times lower if everyone had been switched immediately compared with never. The shorter the delay in switching, the lower the hazard of death-delaying 30-59 days reduced the hazard by 0.53 (95% CI: 0.43, 0.65) times and 60-119 days by 0.58 (95% CI: 0.49, 0.69) times, compared with no switch. Early treatment switch is particularly important for patients with low CD4 counts at failure.

Incidence and predictors of virological failure among adult HIV patients on first-line antiretroviral therapy in Amhara regional referral hospitals; Ethiopia: a retrospective follow-up study

Background

Although the United Nations program on HIV/AIDS 90–90-90-targets recommends achieving 90% of viral suppression for patients on first-line antiretroviral therapy by 2020, virological failure is still high and it remains a global public health problem. Therefore, assessing the incidence and predictors of virological failure among adult HIV patients on first-line ART in Amhara regional referral hospitals, Ethiopia is vital to design appropriate prevention strategies for treatment failure and preventing the unnecessary switching to second-line regimens.

Method

An institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted on 490 adult HIV patients. The simple random sampling technique was used, and data were entered into Epi data Version 4.2.0.0 and was exported to Stata version 14 for analysis. The proportional hazard assumption was checked, and the Weibull regression was fitted. Cox-Snell residual was used to test the goodness of fit, and the appropriate model was selected by AIC/BIC. Finally, an adjusted hazard ratio with a 95% CI was computed, and variables with P-value < 0.05 in the multivariable analysis were taken as significant predictors of virological failure.

Results

The overall incidence rate of virological failure was 4.9 events per 1000 person-month observations (95%CI: 3.86–6.38). Users of CPT (AHR = 0.55, 95%CI: 0.31–0.97), poor adherence (AHR = 5.46, 95%CI: 3.07–9.74), CD4 Count <=200 cells/mm³ (AHR = 3.9, 95%CI: 1.07–13.9) and 201–350 cells/mm³ (AHR 4.1, 95%CI: 1.12–15) respectively, and NVP based first line drug regimen (AHR = 3.53, 95%CI: 1.73–7.21) were significantly associated with virological failure.

Conclusion

The incidence rate of virological failure was high. CPT, poor adherence, low baseline CD4 count and NVP based first-line drug regimen were independent risk factors associated with virological failure. Therefore, strengthening HIV care intervention and addressing these significant predictors is highly recommended in the study setting.

A retrospective descriptive investigation of adult patients receiving third-line antiretroviral therapy in the North West province, South Africa

Background

Greater access and prolonged exposure to ART may inevitably lead to more treatment failure and increase the need for third-line ART (TLART) in a resource-limited setting.

Objective

To describe characteristics and resistance patterns of adult patients initiated on TLART in three districts of the North West province.

Method

All-inclusive retrospective descriptive investigation. Demographics and clinical variables were recorded from adult patient health records (2002-2017) and analysed.

Results

21 Patients (17 females, 4 males) with median (IQR) age of 34 years (30.2-37.8) at HIV diagnosis and 45 years (39.5–47) at TLART initiation were included. Median duration (days) from HIV diagnosis to first-line ART initiation was 101 (37-367), treatment duration on first-line, second-line and between second-line failure and TLART initiation were: 1 269 (765–2 343); 1 512 (706-2096) and 71 (58-126) days respectively.

High-level resistance most prevalent were: nelfinavir/r (85.7%), indinavir/r (80.9%), lopinavir/r (76.2%), emtricitabine and lamivudine (95.2%), nevirapine (76.2%) and efavirenz (71.4%). Resistance to 3 major PI mutations in 95% of patients and cross resistance were documented extensively.

Conclusion

This study support the need for earlier resistance testing. It firstly reported on time duration post diagnosis on various ART regimens and secondly resistance patterns of adults before TLART was initiated in these districts.

Long-term virologic responses to antiretroviral therapy among HIV-positive patients entering adherence clubs in Khayelitsha, Cape Town, South Africa: a longitudinal analysis

INTRODUCTION

In South Africa, an estimated 4.6 million people were accessing antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 2018. As universal Test and Treat is implemented, these numbers will continue to increase. Given the need for lifelong care for millions of individuals, differentiated service delivery models for ART services such as adherence clubs (ACs) for stable patients are required. In this study, we describe long-term virologic outcomes of patients who have ever entered ACs in Khayelitsha, Cape Town.

METHODS

We included adult patients enrolled in ACs in Khayelitsha between January 2011 and December 2016 with a recorded viral load (VL) before enrolment. Risk factors for an elevated VL (VL >1000 copies/mL) and confirmed virologic failure (two consecutive VLs >1000 copies/mL one year apart) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. VL completeness over time was assessed.

RESULTS

Overall, 8058 patients were included in the analysis, contributing 16,047 person-years of follow-up from AC entry (median follow-up time 1.7 years, interquartile range [IQR]:0.9 to 2.9). At AC entry, 74% were female, 46% were aged between 35 and 44 years, and the median duration on ART was 4.8 years (IQR: 3.0 to 7.2). Among patients virologically suppressed at AC entry (n = 8058), 7136 (89%) had a subsequent VL test, of which 441 (6%) experienced an elevated VL (median time from AC entry 363 days, IQR: 170 to 728). Older age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.46 to 0.88), more recent year of AC entry (aHR 0.76, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.84) and higher CD4 count (aHR 0.67, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.84) were protective against experiencing an elevated VL. Among patients with an elevated VL, 52% (150/291) with a repeat VL test subsequently experienced confirmed virologic failure in a median time of 112 days (IQR: 56 to 168). Frequency of VL testing was constant over time (82 to 85%), with over 90% of patients remaining virologically suppressed.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates low prevalence of elevated VLs and confirmed virologic failure among patients who entered ACs. Although ACs were expanded rapidly, most patients were well monitored and remained stable, supporting the continued rollout of this model.

Expanded access to viral load testing and use of second line regimens in Haiti: time trends from 2010-2017

BACKGROUND

Haiti initiated the scale-up of HIV viral load (VL) testing in 2015-2016, with plans to achieve 100% coverage for all patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) for treatment of HIV/AIDS. In the absence of HIV drug susceptibility testing, VL testing is a key tool for monitoring response to ART and optimizing treatment results. This study describes trends in expanded use of VL testing, VL results, and use of second-line ART regimens, and explores the association between VL testing and second-line regimen switching in Haiti from 2010 to 2017.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study with 66,042 patients drawn from 88 of Haiti's 160 national ART clinics. Longitudinal data from the iSanté electronic data system was used to analyze the trends of interest. We described patients' VL testing status in five categories based on up to two most recent VL test results: no test; suppressed; unsuppressed followed by no test; re-suppressed; and confirmed failure. Among those with confirmed failure, we described ART adherence level. Finally, we used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the risk of second-line regimen switching by VL testing status, after adjusting for other individual characteristics.

RESULTS

The number of patients who had tests done increased annually from 11 in 2010 to 18,828 in the first 9 months of 2017, while the number of second-line regimen switches rose from 21 to 279 during this same period. Compared with patients with no VL test, the hazard ratio (HR) for switching to a second-line regimen was 22.2 for patients with confirmed VL failure (95% confidence interval [CI] for HR: 18.8-26.3; p < 0.005) after adjustment for individual characteristics. Among patients with confirmed VL failure, 44.7% had strong adherence, and fewer than 20% of patients switched to a second-line regimen within 365 days of VL failure.

CONCLUSIONS

Haiti has significantly expanded access to VL testing since 2016. In order to promote optimal patient health outcomes, it is essential for Haiti to continue broadening access to confirmatory VL testing, to expand evidence-based initiatives to promote strong ART adherence, and to embrace timely switching for patients with confirmed ART failure despite strong ART adherence.

High turnaround times and low viral resuppression rates after reinforced adherence counselling following a confirmed virological failure diagnostic algorithm in HIV-infected patients on first-line antiretroviral therapy from Tanzania

OBJECTIVE

Early identification of confirmed virological failure is paramount to avoid accumulation of drug resistance in patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Scale-up of HIV-RNA monitoring in Africa and timely switch to second-line regimens are challenged.

METHODS

A WHO adapted confirmed virological treatment screening algorithm (HIV-RNA screening, enhanced adherence counselling, confirmatory HIV-RNA testing) was evaluated in HIV-infected patients on first-line ART from Tanzania. The main endpoints included viral resuppression and virological failure rates, retention and turnaround time of the screening algorithm until second-line ART initiation. Secondary endpoints included risk factors for virological treatment failure and patterns of genotypic drug resistance.

RESULTS

HIV-RNA >1000 copies/ml at first screening was detected in 58/356 (16.3%) patients (median time-on-treatment 6.3 years, 25% immunological treatment failure). Adjusted risk factors for virological failure were age <30 years (RR 5.2 [95% CI: 2.5-10.8]), years on ART ≥3 years (RR 3.0 [1.0-8.9]), CD4-counts <200 cells/µl (RR 9.3 [4.0-21.8]) and poor self-reported treatment adherence (RR 2.0 [1.2-3.4]). Resuppression of HIV-RNA <1000 copies/ml was observed in 5/50 (10%) cases after enhanced adherence counselling. Confirmatory testing within 3 months was performed in only 46.6% and switch to second-line ART within 6 months in 60.4% of patients. Major NNRTI-mutation were detected in all of 30 patients, NRTI mutations in 96.7% and ≥3 thymidine-analogue mutations in 40%. No remaining NRTI options were predicted in 57% and limited susceptibility in 23% of patients.

CONCLUSION

We observed low levels of viral resuppression following adherence counselling, associated with high levels of accumulated drug resistance. High visit burden and turnaround times for confirmed virological failure diagnosis further delayed switching to second-line treatment which could be improved using novel point-of-care viral load monitoring systems.

Characterization of human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients of suspected first-line antiretroviral treatment failure within 5 years - Evidence from a tertiary hospital, Kolkata

Objectives:

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has immense survival benefit on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected people. However, every year, a proportion of patients were failing to the first-line drugs. The aim of this study is to characterize the patients developing first-line failure within 5 years of ART.

Materials and Methods:

A retrospective observational study was carried out at the Centre of Excellence in HIV care, School of Tropical Medicine, Kolkata. A total of 190 referred patients' data of suspected first-line treatment failure who failed first-line ART within 5 years of initiation were collected and analyzed using R software.

Results:

Among 190 patients, 100 (52.4%) patients had virologic failure. Male patients 78 (41.05%) outnumbered females 22 (11.57%) and needed to switch to the second-line drugs. The median age was 37 years (range 8–65 years), and the median duration of first-line ART taken was 2.85 years. Among the first-line failed patients, zidovudine, lamivudine, and nevirapine (23.6%) was the most common antiretroviral regimen and 77 (40.5%) referred in the WHO stage I of illness. Seventy-three (38.42%) patients were referred for immunological failure, 26 (13.7%) for both immunological and clinical failure, and only 1 (0.52%) had only clinical failure at the time of referral. We found a significant association of suboptimal adherence (P < 0.05) and high viral load in this study.

Conclusion:

This study enables that poor adherence was the most important factor responsible for the first-line treatment failure. As adherence is a dynamic process, interventions in every visit following ART initiation should be optimized, and a multidisciplinary approach toward adherence is needed to get the highest treatment outcome benefit.

Recording of HIV viral loads and viral suppression in South African patients receiving antiretroviral treatment: a multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

Viral suppression in patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART) is critical to reducing HIV transmission and HIV-related mortality. Although many studies have evaluated factors associated with viral suppression, few have assessed the extent to which missing viral load data may bias results.

METHODS

We included data on all patients starting ART from 2005 to 2019 in eight South African cohorts participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) collaboration. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine factors associated with having a viral load measurement within 2 months of a scheduled testing date and having a viral load <400 RNA copies/ml ('viral suppression'). In a sensitivity analysis, missing viral loads were imputed based on patients' clinical and demographic characteristics and outcomes.

RESULTS

Viral load tests were scheduled in 603,549 and 77,423 intervals in adults and children, respectively, but test results were recorded in only 40.7% and 41.2%, respectively. The proportion of recorded results suppressed was 85.7% in adults and 72.4% in children. After imputation of missing viral load measurements, viral suppression reduced slightly in adults (85.3%) and increased in children (73.2%). Predictors of virological suppression in adults, which included female sex, older age, higher baseline CD4⁺ T-cell count and recent testing year, were similar in the main analysis and after imputing missing viral loads.

CONCLUSIONS

Although viral load information was frequently missing in the South African setting, estimates of viral suppression and predictors of viral suppression did not change substantially after adjusting for missing data.

HIV-1 integrase drug-resistance mutations in Iranian treatment-experienced HIV-1-infected patients

The latest class of antiretrovirals (ARVs), including integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs), has been demonstrated to be effective for antiretroviral therapy (ART). Despite all the distinguishing characteristics of these drugs, including a high genetic barrier to resistance and lower toxicity than other ARVs, unfortunately, INSTI drug resistance mutations (DRMs) have occasionally been observed. The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of DRMs associated with INSTIs among treatment-experienced HIV-1-infected patients. From June 2012 to December 2018, a total of 655 treatment-experienced HIV-1-infected patients enrolled in this cross-sectional survey. Following amplification and sequencing of the HIV-1 integrase region of the pol gene, DRM and phylogenetic analysis were successfully carried out on the plasma samples of patients who had a viral load over 1,000 IU/ml after at least 6 months of ART. Out of the 655 patients evaluated, 62 (9.5%) had a viral load higher than 1,000 IU/ml after at least 6 months of ART. Phylogenetic analysis showed that all of the 62 HIV-1 patients experiencing treatment failure were infected with CRF35_AD, and one of these patients (1.6%) was infected with HIV-1 variants with DRMs. The DRMs that were identified belonged to the INSTI class, including E138K, G140A, S147G, and Q148R. This survey shows that DRMs belonging to the INSTI class were detected in an Iranian HIV patient who has experienced treatment failure. Therefore, regarding the presence of DRMs to INSTIs in ART-experienced patients, it seems better to perform drug resistance mutation testing in HIV patients experiencing treatment failure before changing the ART regimen and prescribing this class of medication.

Six-Year Immunologic Recovery and Virological Suppression of HIV Patients on LPV/r-Based Second-Line Antiretroviral Treatment: A Multi-Center Real-World Cohort Study in China

The World Health Organization guidelines recommend lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) as a second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-infected adults in middle-income and low-income countries as a protease inhibitor boost based on clinical trials; however, the real-world safety and efficacy remain unknown. Therefore, we conducted a large-scale, multicenter retrospective cohort study to evaluate the efficacy and safety of LPV/r-based ART among HIV-infected adults in China in whom first-line therapy failed. The data were obtained from a national database covering 17 clinics in China for six years of follow-up from 2009 to 2016. Failure of first-line treatment was determined according to a viral load at least 400 copies/ml at week 48, non-completers at week 48 for any reason, and those who switched ART before week 48 for any reason such as side effects. Treatment effectiveness was assessed by the rate of CD4⁺T cell recovery, defined as >500 cells/mm³, and the proportion of patients achieving viral suppression, defined as <400 or <50 copies/ml according to the methods used during treatment. Safety was assessed by rates of LPV/r-related adverse events (AEs), including lipid disorder, severe abnormal liver function, myelosuppression, and renal function. Between 2009 and 2016, 1196 participants (median, 36 years old; IQR, 30–43 years) were ultimately enrolled. All patients had been on LPV/r-based second-line ART treatment for more than one year after failure of any first-line ART regimen. Overall CD4⁺T cell counts increased from 138 cells/mm³ to 475 cells/mm³ and 37.2% of all participants reached CD4 recovery. Viral suppression rates dramatically increased at the end of the first year (<400 copies/ml, 88.8%; <50 copies/ml, 76.7%) and gradually increased during follow-up (<400 copies/ml, 95.8%; <50 copies/ml, 94.4%). The most frequently reported AEs were LPV/r-induced lipid disorders with no obvious increase on LDL-C at follow-up visits. This is the first real-world LPV/r-based second-line treatment study to cover such a large population in China. These results provide strong clinical evidence that LPV/r-based second-line ART is effective in increasing CD4⁺T cell counts and viral suppression rates with tolerable side effects in HIV-infected adults in China in whom first-line treatment had failed.

Treatment failure and associated factors among first line patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) restores immune function and reduces human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) related adverse outcomes. The results of previous studies in Ethiopia were replete with inconsistent findings; nonexistence of national representative figures and determinant factors are found as significant gap. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the existing evidence on ART treatment failure and associated factors in Ethiopia.

METHODS

Relevant studies on ART treatment failure were retrieved from international databases: PubMed, Google Scholar, Scopus, and Science Direct systematically prior to March 14, 2019. All identified studies reporting the proportion of first line treatment failure among HIV patients in Ethiopia were included. Two authors independently extracted all necessary data using a standardized data extraction format. A random-effects model was used to calculate pooled estimates and associated factors in Stata/se Version-14. The Cochrane Q test statistics and I 2 tests were used to assess the heterogeneity of the studies.

RESULTS

From 18 articles reviewed; the pooled proportion of first line treatment failure among ART users in Ethiopia was 15.3% (95% CI: 12, 18.6) with (I 2 = 97.9%, p < 0.001). The subgroup analysis by World Health Organization (WHO) treatment failure assessment criteria were carried out, accordingly the highest prevalence (11.5%) was noted on immunological and the lowest (5.8%) was observed virological treatment failure. We had found poor adherence (OR = 8.6, 95% CI: 5.6, 13.4), not disclosed (OR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.5, 3.0), advanced WHO clinical stage III/IV (OR = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.5, 3.8), change in regimen (OR = 2.5, 95% CI: 1.6, 3.9) and being co-infected (OR = 2.56, 95% CI: 2.2, 3.0) were statistically significant factors for treatment failure.

CONCLUSION

In this study, treatment failure among ART users in Ethiopia was significant. Adherence, co-infection, advanced WHO clinical stage, regimen change, and disclosure are determinant factors for treatment failure. Therefore, improve drug adherence, prevent co-infection, close follow up, and prevent HIV-drug resistance are required in future remedial efforts.

High Medication Possession Ratios Associated With Greater Risk of Virologic Failure Among Youth Compared With Adults in a Nigerian Cohort

BACKGROUND

Medication possession ratio (MPR) is widely used as a measure of adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART). Many adolescents and young adults (AYA) experience ART adherence challenges. Our objective was to determine whether the relationship between MPR and virologic failure (VF) is consistent between AYA and older adults in Nigeria.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study of AYA (aged 15-25 years) and adults (aged >25 years) who initiated ART between January 2009 and December 2012 at 10 university-affiliated HIV clinics in Nigeria. We used multivariate generalized linear models to assess the relationship between age, MPR (ART doses dispensed)/(days since ART initiation), and risk of VF (HIV RNA >1000 copies/mL) in the 1st year on ART.

RESULTS

The cohort included 1508 AYA and 11,376 older adults. VF was more common in AYA than older adults (30% vs. 24% P < 0.01). Overall, 74% of patients had optimal, 16% suboptimal, and 9% poor adherence (MPR >94%, 80%-94%, and <80%, respectively). AYA attended fewer pharmacy-only visits than older adults (5 vs. 6, P < 0.001). Higher MPR was associated with decreased rate of VF (80%-94%, accounting rate of return 0.57; >94% accounting rate of return 0.43, P < 0.001 vs. MPR <80%). Among those with optimal adherence by MPR, 26% of AYA had VF, a risk that was 20% higher than for older adults with optimal adherence (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In this Nigerian cohort, MPRs were high overall, and there was a strong association between low MPR and risk of VF. Nonetheless, 26% of AYA with high MPRs still had VF. Understanding the discrepancy between MPR and viral suppression in AYA is an important priority.

Antiretroviral Therapy-associated Adverse Drug Reactions and their Effects on Virologic Failure- A Retrospective Cohort Study in Nigeria

Background:

Adverse drug reactions (ADRs) associated with antiretroviral therapy (ART) can rapidly reverse the gains of ART resulting in poor health outcomes. We need an improved under-standing of specific ART-related ADRs that influence virologic outcomes.

Objective:

To investigate the frequency of clinical ADRs and assess their effect on virologic failure in patients on ART.

Method:

We described the prevalence of major clinical ADRs, and the association between specific ADRs and virologic failure in a clinic cohort of HIV-1 infected Nigerians aged ≥18 years, on first-line ART between June 2004 and February 2012. Multivariable logistic regression was run to identify predictors of virologic failure at 24 and 72 weeks of ART.

Results:

Data of 12,115 patients with a median age of 34 (interquartile range: 29-41) years, and pre-dominantly females (67%) were evaluated. Overall, 957 (7.9%) patients experienced at least one ADR during a median follow-up period of 4 years (interquartile range: 1-7). The three most prevalent ADRs were lipodystrophy (2.6%), anemia (1.9%), and skin rash (0.7%). Virologic failure rate was 36% and 34% at 24 and 72 weeks of ART, respectively. Anemia independently predicted the odds of virologic failure at 72 weeks of ART (adjusted odds ratio, 1.74; 95% CI: 1.2-2.51); adjusted for sex, age, pre-treatment CD4+ cell count, antiretroviral regimen, and medication refill adherence.

Conclusion:

Antiretroviral therapy-associated anemia increases the likelihood of late virologic failure. We recommend routine monitoring of hemoglobin levels and prompt management of anemia in all pa-tients on ART as a strategy to improve virologic success rates.

The Impacts of Residential Location on the Risk of HIV Virologic Failure Among ART Users in Durban, South Africa

Using a case-control study of patients receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) in 2010-2012 at McCord Hospital in Durban, South Africa, we sought to understand how residential locations impact patients' risk of virologic failure (VF). Using generalized estimating equations to fit logistic regression models, we estimated the associations of VF with socioeconomic status (SES) and geographic access to care. We then determined whether neighborhood-level poverty modifies the association between individual-level SES and VF. Automobile ownership for men and having non-spouse family members pay medical care for women remained independently associated with increased odds of VF for patients dwelling in moderately and severely poor neighborhoods. Closer geographic proximity to medical care was positively associated with VF among men, while higher neighborhood-level poverty was positively associated with VF among women. The programmatic implications of our findings include developing ART adherence interventions that address the role of gender in both the socioeconomic and geographical contexts.

Simplifying switch to second-line antiretroviral therapy in sub Saharan Africa: predicted effect of using a single viral load to define efavirenz-based first-line failure

Background:

Many individuals failing first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa never initiate second-line ART or do so after significant delay. For people on ART with a viral load more than 1000 copies/ml, the WHO recommends a second viral load measurement 3 months after the first viral load and enhanced adherence support. Switch to a second-line regimen is contingent upon a persistently elevated viral load more than 1000 copies/ml. Delayed second-line switch places patients at increased risk for opportunistic infections and mortality.

Methods:

To assess the potential benefits of a simplified second-line ART switch strategy, we use an individual-based model of HIV transmission, progression and the effect of ART which incorporates consideration of adherence and drug resistance, to compare predicted outcomes of two policies, defining first-line regimen failure for patients on efavirenz-based ART as either two consecutive viral load values more than 1000 copies/ml, with the second after an enhanced adherence intervention (implemented as per current WHO guidelines) or a single viral load value more than 1000 copies/ml. We simulated a range of setting-scenarios reflecting the breadth of the sub-Saharan African HIV epidemic, taking into account potential delays in defining failure and switch to second-line ART.

Findings:

The use of a single viral load more than 1000 copies/ml to define ART failure would lead to a higher proportion of persons with nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor resistance switched to second-line ART [65 vs. 48%; difference 17% (90% range 14–20%)], resulting in a median 18% reduction in the rate of AIDS-related death over setting scenarios (90% range 6–30%; from a median of 3.1 to 2.5 per 100 person-years) over 3 years. The simplified strategy also is predicted to reduce the rate of AIDS conditions by a median of 31% (90% range 8–49%) among people on first-line ART with a viral load more than 1000 copies/ml in the past 6 months. For a country of 10 million adults (and a median of 880 000 people with HIV), we estimate that this approach would lead to a median of 1322 (90% range 67–3513) AIDS deaths averted per year over 3 years. For South Africa this would represent around 10 215 deaths averted annually.

Interpretation:

As a step towards reducing unnecessary mortality associated with delayed second-line ART switch, defining failure of first-line efavirenz-based regimens as a single viral load more than 1000 copies/ml should be considered.

Factors associated with first-line antiretroviral treatment failure in adult HIV-positive patients: a case-control study from Ethiopia

Background

Treatment failure has become a significant challenge in patients taking antiretroviral therapy (ART). The aim of the present study was to identify risk factors for first-line ART failure among patients attending clinical follow-up.

Methods

A 1:2 matched case-control study (by age, sex, and treatment duration since initiated on ART) was conducted from June 2015 to July 2017 on adult patients (aged ≥15 years) who were on ART for at least 6 months. Cases were selected from patients who were switched to second-line ART after first-line ART failure (viral load ≥1000 copies/mL). Controls were randomly selected from patients on first-line ART with viral load < 50 copies/mL. Data were collected using an interview questionnaire, reviewing chart and electronic health records and laboratory tests. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors for treatment failure.

Results

Of the 273 patients who participated in this study, 55% were males. Ninety-one cases were compared with 182 controls. The median age of participants was 40 years and the median duration of treatment since initiated on ART was 69 months. Independent risk factors associated with first-line antiretroviral treatment failure were discontinuation of ART (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 9.8, 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.0–23.8), baseline CD4 lymphocyte count ≤50 cells/mm³ (AOR = 3.8, 95% CI: 1.5–9.6) and persistent diarrhea (AOR = 4.4, 95% CI: 1.5–13.2). The risk of ART failure was high and comparable whether the duration of ART discontinuation was greater or less than 1 month (crude odds ratio (COR) = 6.3 and 8. 5 respectively, p-value < 0.001). Frequent eating of a diet containing wheat or barley (AOR = 2.3, 95% CI: 0.9–5.4) showed a trend to be a risk factor for first-line ART failure (p-value = 0.064).

Conclusions

Our findings underscore the importance of avoiding ART discontinuation of any duration, early initiation of ART and diarrhea management to prevent first-line ART failure.

Clinical predictor score to identify patients at risk of poor viral load suppression at six months on antiretroviral therapy: results from a prospective cohort study in Johannesburg, South Africa

Purpose: As countries work toward 90:90:90 targets, early identification of patients with inadequate response to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is critical for achieving optimal HIV treatment outcomes. We developed and evaluated a clinical prediction score (CPS) to identify HIV-positive patients at risk of poor viral load suppression at 6 months on ART. Patients and methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study of HIV-positive ART naïve adults (≥18 years) initiating standard first-line ART between February 2012 and April 2014 at Themba Lethu Clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. We used Modified Poisson regression to estimate the association between patient characteristics and poor viral load suppression, defined as a viral load ≥400 copies/mL at 6 months on ART. We developed a CPS following the Spiegel Halter and Knill-Jones approach and determined the diagnostic accuracy compared to viral load as the "gold standard". We identified the optimal cutoff at which the CPS would identify those at risk of poor viral load suppression. Results: Among 353 patients, 67.7% had a viral load measurement at 6 months on ART and 30.1% of these were viremic (≥400 copies/mL). Male gender, platelet count <150 cells/mm3, ≥7 days late for ≥2 ARV visits, visual analog scale (VAS) <90% and <14.5 fL increase in mean cell volume from baseline to 6 months were included in the CPS. The optimal cutoff was 5 (≥5 vs <5; sensitivity [Se] 65.3%, specificity [Sp] 46.7%) and the CPS performed better than standard measures of adherence (eg, VAS Se 24.5%; Simplified Medication Adherence Questionnaire Se 26.5%). Conclusion: Our findings suggest a 6-month CPS may have the potential to identify patients at risk of poor viral load suppression. The CPS may be used to target patients who need intensive adherence support, with the caveat that there may be a three- to four-fold increase in the pool of patients identified for adherence counseling.

Long-term virological suppression on first-line efavirenz + tenofovir + emtricitabine/lamivudine for HIV-1

Objectives:

Evaluate long-term rates of virological failure and treatment interruption for people living with HIV (PLWHIV) with viral suppression on first-line efavirenz + tenofovir disoproxil fumarate + emtricitabine/lamivudine (EFV + TDF + FTC/3TC), and compare these according to patient characteristics.

Methods:

PLWHIV enrolled in the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe cohort collaboration, who started first-line EFV + TDF + FTC/3TC at age at least 16 years and had viral suppression (<200 copies/ml) within 9 months were included. Rates of virological failure (≥200 copies/ml) and (complete) treatment interruption were estimated according to years since initial suppression. We used Poisson regression to examine associations of baseline characteristics with rates of virological failure or treatment interruption.

Results:

Among 19 527 eligible PLWHIV with median (interquartile range) follow-up 3.7 (2.0–5.6) years after initial viral suppression, the estimated rate of the combined incidence of virological failure or treatment interruption fell from 9.0/100 person-years in the first year to less than 4/100 person-years beyond 3 years from suppression; considering only those remaining on EFV + TDF + FTC/3TC, the combined rate dropped from 8.2/100 person-years in the first year to less than 3.5/100 person-years beyond 3 years. PLWHIV with injecting drug-related or heterosexual transmission were at higher risk of virological failure or treatment interruption, as were those of Black ethnicity. PLWHIV aged less than 35 years were at higher risk of virological failure and treatment interruption.

Conclusion:

PLWHIV starting first-line EFV + TDF + FTC/3TC had low rates of virological failure and treatment interruption up to 10 years from initial suppression. Demographic characteristics can be used to identify subpopulations with higher risks of these outcomes.

Adverse Drug Reactions Among Patients Initiating Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa

Introduction

Understanding the occurrence of antiretroviral (ARV)-related adverse events (AEs) among patients receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) is important in preventing switches to more limited and expensive third-line regimens.

Objective

This study aimed to estimate the rates and examine predictors of AEs among adult HIV-1-infected patients receiving second-line ART in the Right to Care (RTC) clinical cohort in South Africa.

Methods

This was a cohort study of HIV-1-infected adult patients (≥ 18 years of age) initiating standard second-line ART in South Africa from 1 April 2004 to 10 January 2016. Our primary outcome was the development of an AE within 24 months of initiating second-line therapy. We used Kaplan–Meier survival analysis to determine AE incidence in the first 24 months of second-line ART. Predictors of AEs were modelled using a Cox proportional hazards model.

Results

A total of 7708 patients initiated second-line ART, with 44.5% developing at least one AE over the first 24 months of second-line treatment. The highest AE incidence was observed among patients receiving abacavir (ABC) + lamivudine (3TC) + ritonavir-boosted lopinavir/atazanavir (LPVr/ATVr) (52.7/100 person-years (PYs), 95% confidence interval (CI): 42.9–64.8), while patients initiated on a tenofovir (TDF) + emtricitabine (FTC)/3TC + LPVr regimen had the lowest rate of AEs (26.4/100 PYs, 95% CI: 24.9–28.3). Clinical predictors of AEs included experiencing AEs when receiving first-line ART (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 2.3, 95% CI: 1.9–2.8), lower CD4 cell count (0–199 vs. ≥ 350 cells/mm³; aHR 1.4, 95% CI: 1.4–1.8), and switching to second-line therapy from an ABC-base first-line regimen (ABC + 3TC + efavirenz/nevirapine [EFV/NVP] vs. TDF + 3TC/FTC + EFV/NVP; aHR 3.4, 95% CI: 1.1–11.1).

Conclusions

The rates of AEs were lowest among patients receiving a TDF-based second-line regimen. Patients with poorer health at the time of switch were at higher risk of AEs when receiving second-line ART and may require closer monitoring to improve the durability of second-line therapy.

Enhanced adherence counselling and viral load suppression in HIV seropositive patients with an initial high viral load in Harare, Zimbabwe: Operational issues

BACKGROUND

In people living with HIV (PLHIV) who are on anti-retroviral therapy (ART), it is essential to identify persons with high blood viral loads (VLs) (≥1000 copies/ml), provide enhanced adherence counselling (EAC) for 3 months and assess for VL suppression (<1000 copies/ml).

OBJECTIVE

Our study objectives were to determine the proportion who had a high viral load in those people who underwent viral load testing between 1 August 2016-31 July 2017 at Wilkins Hospital, Harare, Zimbabwe. Of those with high viral load to assess; a) the proportion who enrolled for EAC, the demographic and clinical characteristics associated with enrolment for EAC and, b) the proportion who achieved viral load suppression and demographic, clinical characteristics associated with viral load suppression.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study using routinely collected programme data. Data was collected from PLHIV who were on ART and had a high viral load from 1 August 2016 to 31 July 2017.

RESULTS

Of 5,573 PLHIV on ART between 1 August 2016 and 31 July 2017, 4787 (85.9%) had undergone VL testing and 646 (13.5%) had high VLs. Of these 646, only 489 (75.7%) were enrolled for EAC, of whom 444 (69%) underwent a repeat VL test at ≥ 3 months with 201 (31.2%) achieving VL suppression. The clinical characteristics that were independently associated with higher probability of VL suppression were: a) undergoing 3 sessions of EAC; b) being on 2nd line ART. Initial VL levels >5,000 copies/ml were associated with lower probability of viral suppression.

CONCLUSION

The routine VL testing levels were high, but there were major programmatic gaps in enrolling PLHIV with high VLs into EAC and achieving VL suppression. The full potential of EAC on achieving viral load suppression has not been achieved in this setting. The reasons for these gaps need to be assessed in future research studies and addressed by suitable changes in policies/practices.

Predictors of treatment failure, time to switch and reasons for switching to second line antiretroviral therapy in HIV infected children receiving first line anti-retroviral therapy at a Tertiary Care Hospital in Ethiopia

Background

Treatment failure and delay in switching to second line regimen are major concerns in the treatment of HIV infected children in a resource limited setting. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and predictors of first line antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimen failure, reasons and time taken to switch to second line antiretroviral (ARV) medications after treatment failure among HIV-infected children.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted February 2003 to May 2018 in HIV-clinic at Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital (TASH), Ethiopia. All HIV infected children ≤15 years of age and who were taking first line ART for at least 6 months were included. Data abstraction format was used to collect the data from patients’ chart and registry. Binary and multivariable logistic regression statistics were used.

Results

Out of 318 enrolled HIV-infected children, the prevalence of treatment failure was found to be 22.6% (72/318), among these 37 (51.4%) had only immunologic failure, 6 (8.3%) had only virologic failure and 24 (33.3%) had both clinical and immunological failure. The mean time taken to modify combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) regimen was 12.67 (4.96) weeks after treatment failure was confirmed. WHO Stage 3 and 4 [Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR), 3.64, 95% CI 1.76–7.56], not having both parents as primary caretakers [AOR, 2.72 95% CI, 1.05–7.06], negative serology of care takers [AOR, 2.69 95% CI, 1.03–7.03], and cART initiation at 11 month or younger were predicting factors of treatment failure. Of the 141 (47.9%) children who had regimen switching or substitution, treatment failure (44.4%) and replacement of stavudine (d4T) (30.8%) were major reasons. Only 6.6% patients had received PMTCT service.

Conclusion

One fifth of the patients had experienced treatment failure. Advanced WHO stage at baseline, not being taken care of by mother and father, negative sero-status caretakers, and younger age at initiation of cART were the predictors of treatment failure. PMTCT service uptake was very low. There was a significant time gap between detection of treatment failure and initiation of second line cART. Half of the patients encountered regimen switching or substitution of cART due to treatment failure and replacement of stavudine (d4T).

Heterogeneity of virological suppression in the national antiretroviral programme of Cameroon (ANRS 12288 EVOLCAM)

OBJECTIVES

In terms of HIV infection, western and central Africa is the second most affected region world-wide, and the gap between the regional figures for the testing and treatment cascade and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 targets is particularly worrying. We assessed the prevalence of virological suppression in patients routinely treated in 19 hospitals in Cameroon.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was performed in adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the Centre and Littoral regions. The prevalences of virological suppression (<1000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL) were compared among all 19 hospitals using the χ² test. Potential individual and health care-related determinants of virological suppression were assessed using multivariate logistic regression models.

RESULTS

A total of 1700 patients (74% women; median age 41 years; median time on ART 3.7 years) were included in the study. The prevalence of virological suppression was 82.4% overall (95% confidence interval 80.5-84.2%). It ranged from 57.1 to 97.4% according to the individual hospital (P < 0.001). After adjustment, virological suppression was associated with age, CD4 cell count at ART initiation, disclosure of HIV status to family members, interruption of ART for more than two consecutive days, and location of patient's residence and hospital (rural/urban). These factors did not explain the heterogeneity of virological suppression between the study hospitals (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The overall prevalence of virological suppression was reassuring. Nevertheless, the heterogeneity of virological suppression among hospitals highlights that, in addition to programme-level data, health facility-level data are crucial in order to tailor the national AIDS programme's interventions with a view to achieving the third UNAIDS 90 target.

Success factors for universal access to antiretroviral treatments in South Africa

This article studies the epidemiological and economic impacts of a universal testing and treatment policy of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in South Africa. A model of disease transmission is built to simulate several implementation scenarios of the policy. Different behavioral responses in the general population are considered. The results show that the success of a large-scale HIV testing and treatment program in South Africa depends on its implementation conditions. The policy can lead to a reduction of the HIV epidemic, even in the case of a large relapse in preventive behaviors in the general population, if implementation conditions are favorable. This is the case if the number of infected individuals who are infectious is greatly reduced. From an economic point of view, taking into account the positive externality of antiretroviral (ARV) treatments changes the traditional framework of cost-benefit analyses. A large-scale testing and treatment program would be cost-saving in the case of favorable implementation conditions, even following a large increase in risk behaviors after the scaling up of ARV treatments. By contrast, the analysis stresses out the potential perverse effects of scaling up ARV treatments in South Africa if the intervention is set up without ensuring enough resources for patients' monitoring and the availability of effective ARV drugs. Indeed, if the number of treated patients rises while adherence of patients to treatments decreases and the rate of loss to follow-up increases, the policy could extend the pool of infectious patients and lead to a long-term amplification of the epidemic.