Imaging plus X: multimodal models of neurodegenerative disease

Parsimonious EBM: Generalising the event-based model of disease progression for simultaneous events

The event-based model of disease progression (EBM) infers a temporal ordering of biomarker abnormalities, defining different disease stages, from cross-sectional data. A key modelling choice of the EBM is that biomarker abnormalities, termed events, are serially ordered. However, this choice enforces a strict equality between the number of input biomarkers and the number of modelled disease stages, limiting the EBM's ability to infer simple staging systems and identify latent disease processes driving multiple biomarker changes. To overcome this, we introduce the parsimonious event-based model of disease progression (P-EBM). The P-EBM generalises the EBM to allow multiple new biomarker abnormalities, termed "simultaneous events", at each model stage. We evaluate the P-EBM performance in simulated data and demonstrate its ability to reconstruct event orderings with arbitrary arrangements under realistic experimental conditions. In sporadic AD data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, the P-EBM estimated a sequence with 7 model stages from a dataset of 12 biomarkers that more closely fitted the data than the EBM. The inferred sets of simultaneous events, such as decreased cerebrospinal fluid total tau and p-tau181, correspond closely to known underlying disease processes. P-EBM patient stages were strongly associated with clinical diagnosis at baseline and future conversion and could be accurately estimated from a smaller number of biomarkers than the EBM. The P-EBM enables the data-driven discovery of simple disease staging systems which could highlight new latent disease processes and suggest practical strategies for patient staging.

A review: From old drugs to new solutions: The role of repositioning in alzheimer's disease treatment

Drug repositioning or drug reprofiling, involves identifying novel indications for approved and previously abandoned drugs in the treatment of other diseases. The traditional drug discovery process is tedious, time-consuming, risky, and challenging. Fortunately, the inception of the drug repositioning concept has expedited the process by using compounds with established safety profiles in humans, and thereby significantly reducing costs. Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a severe neurological disorder characterized by progressive degeneration of the brain with limited and less effective therapeutic interventions. Researchers have attempted to identify potential treatment of AD from existing drug however, the success of drug repositioning strategy in AD remains uncertain. This article briefly discusses the importance and effectiveness of drug repositioning strategies, the major obstacles in the development of drugs for Alzheimer's disease (AD), approaches to address these challenges, and the role of machine learning in identifying early markers of AD for improved management.

[Promoting Research on Modeling and Simulation]

As I recently retired from Chiba University, I would like to describe how I began my research career, some of my accomplishments in the research field of modeling and simulation, and future prospects in this area. Here, I discuss the research topics of drug interactions, the oral absorption of drugs, analyses of between-group and individual differences in pharmacokinetics based on the theories of physiologically-based pharmacokinetics and population pharmacokinetics, and my roles in implementation of the drug interaction guideline. Furthermore, I also discuss modeling topics unrelated to pharmacokinetics, i.e., the analyses of the long-term progression of chronic diseases, such as Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease using individual patient information; the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic; and prognostic factors of chronic heart failure with the view towards personalized medicine. After completing my Master's course at Hokkaido University, I joined a pharmaceutical company and worked as a pharmacokinetics researcher for 21 years, while obtaining my doctoral degree. I spent the next 9 years as a hospital pharmacist focusing on scientific research at the University of Tokyo Hospital, and the last 10 years as a Professor of Clinical Pharmacology and Pharmacometrics at Chiba University. My career is, therefore, characterized by involvement in pharmaceutical sciences from many different perspectives. This description focuses rather on the background of the studies than scientific details.

Attention-Guided 3D CNN With Lesion Feature Selection for Early Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Using Longitudinal sMRI

Predicting the progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) is critical for early intervention. Towards this end, various deep learning models have been applied in this domain, typically relying on structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) data from a single time point whereas neglecting the dynamic changes in brain structure over time. Current longitudinal studies inadequately explore disease evolution dynamics and are burdened by high computational complexity. This paper introduces a novel lightweight 3D convolutional neural network specifically designed to capture the evolution of brain diseases for modeling the progression of MCI. First, a longitudinal lesion feature selection strategy is proposed to extract core features from temporal data, facilitating the detection of subtle differences in brain structure between two time points. Next, to refine the model for a more concentrated emphasis on lesion features, a disease trend attention mechanism is introduced to learn the dependencies between overall disease trends and local variation features. Finally, disease prediction visualization techniques are employed to improve the interpretability of the final predictions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed model achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, specificity, precision, and F1 score. This study confirms the efficacy of our early diagnostic method, utilizing only two follow-up sMRI scans to predict the disease status of MCI patients 24 months later with an AUC of 79.03%.

Beyond the usual suspects: multi-factorial computational models in the search for neurodegenerative disease mechanisms

From Alzheimer's disease to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, the molecular cascades underlying neurodegenerative disorders remain poorly understood. The clinical view of neurodegeneration is confounded by symptomatic heterogeneity and mixed pathology in almost every patient. While the underlying physiological alterations originate, proliferate, and propagate potentially decades before symptomatic onset, the complexity and inaccessibility of the living brain limit direct observation over a patient's lifespan. Consequently, there is a critical need for robust computational methods to support the search for causal mechanisms of neurodegeneration by distinguishing pathogenic processes from consequential alterations, and inter-individual variability from intra-individual progression. Recently, promising advances have been made by data-driven spatiotemporal modeling of the brain, based on in vivo neuroimaging and biospecimen markers. These methods include disease progression models comparing the temporal evolution of various biomarkers, causal models linking interacting biological processes, network propagation models reproducing the spatial spreading of pathology, and biophysical models spanning cellular- to network-scale phenomena. In this review, we discuss various computational approaches for integrating cross-sectional, longitudinal, and multi-modal data, primarily from large observational neuroimaging studies, to understand (i) the temporal ordering of physiological alterations, i(i) their spatial relationships to the brain's molecular and cellular architecture, (iii) mechanistic interactions between biological processes, and (iv) the macroscopic effects of microscopic factors. We consider the extents to which computational models can evaluate mechanistic hypotheses, explore applications such as improving treatment selection, and discuss how model-informed insights can lay the groundwork for a pathobiological redefinition of neurodegenerative disorders.

Disease progression modeling with temporal realignment: An emerging approach to deepen knowledge on chronic diseases

The recent development of the first disease-modifying drug for Alzheimer's disease represents a major advancement in dementia treatment. Behind this breakthrough is a quarter century of research efforts to understand the disease not by a particular symptom at a given moment, but by long-term sequential changes in multiple biomarkers. Disease progression modeling with temporal realignment (DPM-TR) is an emerging computational approach proposed with this biomarker-based disease concept. By integrating short-term clinical observations of multiple disease biomarkers in a data-driven manner, DPM-TR provides a way to understand the progression of chronic diseases over decades and predict individual disease stages more accurately. DPM-TR has been developed primarily in the area of neurodegenerative diseases but has recently been extended to non-neurodegenerative diseases, including chronic obstructive pulmonary, autoimmune, and ophthalmologic diseases. This review focuses on opportunities for DPM-TR in clinical practice and drug development and discusses its current status and challenges.

Multimodal subtypes identified in Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative participants by missing-data-enabled subtype and stage inference

Alzheimer's disease is a highly heterogeneous disease in which different biomarkers are dynamic over different windows of the decades-long pathophysiological processes, and potentially have distinct involvement in different subgroups. Subtype and Stage Inference is an unsupervised learning algorithm that disentangles the phenotypic heterogeneity and temporal progression of disease biomarkers, providing disease insight and quantitative estimates of individual subtype and stage. However, a key limitation of Subtype and Stage Inference is that it requires a complete set of biomarkers for each subject, reducing the number of datapoints available for model fitting and limiting applications of Subtype and Stage Inference to modalities that are widely collected, e.g. volumetric biomarkers derived from structural MRI. In this study, we adapted the Subtype and Stage Inference algorithm to handle missing data, enabling the application of Subtype and Stage Inference to multimodal data (magnetic resonance imaging, positron emission tomography, cerebrospinal fluid and cognitive tests) from 789 participants in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Missing-data Subtype and Stage Inference identified five subtypes having distinct progression patterns, which we describe by the earliest unique abnormality as 'Typical AD with Early Tau', 'Typical AD with Late Tau', 'Cortical', 'Cognitive' and 'Subcortical'. These new multimodal subtypes were differentially associated with age, years of education, Apolipoprotein E (APOE4) status, white matter hyperintensity burden and the rate of conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease, with the 'Cognitive' subtype showing the fastest clinical progression, and the 'Subcortical' subtype the slowest. Overall, we demonstrate that missing-data Subtype and Stage Inference reveals a finer landscape of Alzheimer's disease subtypes, each of which are associated with different risk factors. Missing-data Subtype and Stage Inference has broad utility, enabling the prediction of progression in a much wider set of individuals, rather than being restricted to those with complete data.

Data-driven modelling of neurodegenerative disease progression: thinking outside the black box

Data-driven disease progression models are an emerging set of computational tools that reconstruct disease timelines for long-term chronic diseases, providing unique insights into disease processes and their underlying mechanisms. Such methods combine a priori human knowledge and assumptions with large-scale data processing and parameter estimation to infer long-term disease trajectories from short-term data. In contrast to 'black box' machine learning tools, data-driven disease progression models typically require fewer data and are inherently interpretable, thereby aiding disease understanding in addition to enabling classification, prediction and stratification. In this Review, we place the current landscape of data-driven disease progression models in a general framework and discuss their enhanced utility for constructing a disease timeline compared with wider machine learning tools that construct static disease profiles. We review the insights they have enabled across multiple neurodegenerative diseases, notably Alzheimer disease, for applications such as determining temporal trajectories of disease biomarkers, testing hypotheses about disease mechanisms and uncovering disease subtypes. We outline key areas for technological development and translation to a broader range of neuroscience and non-neuroscience applications. Finally, we discuss potential pathways and barriers to integrating disease progression models into clinical practice and trial settings.

Artificial intelligence for dementia research methods optimization

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) approaches are increasingly being used in dementia research. However, several methodological challenges exist that may limit the insights we can obtain from high-dimensional data and our ability to translate these findings into improved patient outcomes. To improve reproducibility and replicability, researchers should make their well-documented code and modeling pipelines openly available. Data should also be shared where appropriate. To enhance the acceptability of models and AI-enabled systems to users, researchers should prioritize interpretable methods that provide insights into how decisions are generated. Models should be developed using multiple, diverse datasets to improve robustness, generalizability, and reduce potentially harmful bias. To improve clarity and reproducibility, researchers should adhere to reporting guidelines that are co-produced with multiple stakeholders. If these methodological challenges are overcome, AI and ML hold enormous promise for changing the landscape of dementia research and care. HIGHLIGHTS: Machine learning (ML) can improve diagnosis, prevention, and management of dementia. Inadequate reporting of ML procedures affects reproduction/replication of results. ML models built on unrepresentative datasets do not generalize to new datasets. Obligatory metrics for certain model structures and use cases have not been defined. Interpretability and trust in ML predictions are barriers to clinical translation.

Artificial intelligence for biomarker discovery in Alzheimer's disease and dementia

With the increase in large multimodal cohorts and high-throughput technologies, the potential for discovering novel biomarkers is no longer limited by data set size. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning approaches have been developed to detect novel biomarkers and interactions in complex data sets. We discuss exemplar uses and evaluate current applications and limitations of AI to discover novel biomarkers. Remaining challenges include a lack of diversity in the data sets available, the sheer complexity of investigating interactions, the invasiveness and cost of some biomarkers, and poor reporting in some studies. Overcoming these challenges will involve collecting data from underrepresented populations, developing more powerful AI approaches, validating the use of noninvasive biomarkers, and adhering to reporting guidelines. By harnessing rich multimodal data through AI approaches and international collaborative innovation, we are well positioned to identify clinically useful biomarkers that are accurate, generalizable, unbiased, and acceptable in clinical practice. HIGHLIGHTS: Artificial intelligence and machine learning approaches may accelerate dementia biomarker discovery. Remaining challenges include data set suitability due to size and bias in cohort selection. Multimodal data, diverse data sets, improved machine learning approaches, real-world validation, and interdisciplinary collaboration are required.

A systematic review of the application of machine-learning algorithms in multiple sclerosis

INTRODUCTION

The applications of artificial intelligence, and in particular automatic learning or "machine learning" (ML), constitute both a challenge and a great opportunity in numerous scientific, technical, and clinical disciplines. Specific applications in the study of multiple sclerosis (MS) have been no exception, and constitute an area of increasing interest in recent years.

OBJECTIVE

We present a systematic review of the application of ML algorithms in MS.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We used the PubMed search engine, which allows free access to the MEDLINE medical database, to identify studies including the keywords "machine learning" and "multiple sclerosis." We excluded review articles, studies written in languages other than English or Spanish, and studies that were mainly technical and did not specifically apply to MS. The final selection included 76 articles, and 38 were rejected.

CONCLUSIONS

After the review process, we established 4 main applications of ML in MS: 1) classifying MS subtypes; 2) distinguishing patients with MS from healthy controls and individuals with other diseases; 3) predicting progression and response to therapeutic interventions; and 4) other applications. Results found to date have shown that ML algorithms may offer great support for health professionals both in clinical settings and in research into MS.

The temporal event-based model: Learning event timelines in progressive diseases

Timelines of events, such as symptom appearance or a change in biomarker value, provide powerful signatures that characterise progressive diseases. Understanding and predicting the timing of events is important for clinical trials targeting individuals early in the disease course when putative treatments are likely to have the strongest effect. However, previous models of disease progression cannot estimate the time between events and provide only an ordering in which they change. Here, we introduce the temporal event-based model (TEBM), a new probabilistic model for inferring timelines of biomarker events from sparse and irregularly sampled datasets. We demonstrate the power of the TEBM in two neurodegenerative conditions: Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Huntington's disease (HD). In both diseases, the TEBM not only recapitulates current understanding of event orderings but also provides unique new ranges of timescales between consecutive events. We reproduce and validate these findings using external datasets in both diseases. We also demonstrate that the TEBM improves over current models; provides unique stratification capabilities; and enriches simulated clinical trials to achieve a power of 80 % with less than half the cohort size compared with random selection. The application of the TEBM naturally extends to a wide range of progressive conditions.

Artificial Intelligence for Dementia Research Methods Optimization

INTRODUCTION

Machine learning (ML) has been extremely successful in identifying key features from high-dimensional datasets and executing complicated tasks with human expert levels of accuracy or greater.

METHODS

We summarize and critically evaluate current applications of ML in dementia research and highlight directions for future research.

RESULTS

We present an overview of ML algorithms most frequently used in dementia research and highlight future opportunities for the use of ML in clinical practice, experimental medicine, and clinical trials. We discuss issues of reproducibility, replicability and interpretability and how these impact the clinical applicability of dementia research. Finally, we give examples of how state-of-the-art methods, such as transfer learning, multi-task learning, and reinforcement learning, may be applied to overcome these issues and aid the translation of research to clinical practice in the future.

DISCUSSION

ML-based models hold great promise to advance our understanding of the underlying causes and pathological mechanisms of dementia.

Fast three-dimensional image generation for healthy brain aging using diffeomorphic registration

Predicting brain aging can help in the early detection and prognosis of neurodegenerative diseases. Longitudinal cohorts of healthy subjects scanned through magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) have been essential to understand the structural brain changes due to aging. However, these cohorts suffer from missing data due to logistic issues in the recruitment of subjects. This paper proposes a methodology for filling up missing data in longitudinal cohorts with anatomically plausible images that capture the subject-specific aging process. The proposed methodology is developed within the framework of diffeomorphic registration. First, two novel modules are introduced within Synthmorph, a fast, state-of-the-art deep learning-based diffeomorphic registration method, to simulate the aging process between the first and last available MRI scan for each subject in three-dimensional (3D). The use of image registration also makes the generated images plausible by construction. Second, we used six image similarity measurements to rearrange the generated images to the specific age range. Finally, we estimated the age of every generated image by using the assumption of linear brain decay in healthy subjects. The methodology was evaluated on 2662 T1-weighted MRI scans from 796 healthy participants from 3 different longitudinal cohorts: Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, Open Access Series of Imaging Studies-3, and Group of Neuropsychological Studies of the Canary Islands (GENIC). In total, we generated 7548 images to simulate the access of a scan per subject every 6 months in these cohorts. We evaluated the quality of the synthetic images using six quantitative measurements and a qualitative assessment by an experienced neuroradiologist with state-of-the-art results. The assumption of linear brain decay was accurate in these cohorts (R2  ∈ [.924, .940]). The experimental results show that the proposed methodology can produce anatomically plausible aging predictions that can be used to enhance longitudinal datasets. Compared to deep learning-based generative methods, diffeomorphic registration is more likely to preserve the anatomy of the different structures of the brain, which makes it more appropriate for its use in clinical applications. The proposed methodology is able to efficiently simulate anatomically plausible 3D MRI scans of brain aging of healthy subjects from two images scanned at two different time points.

MC-RVAE: Multi-channel recurrent variational autoencoder for multimodal Alzheimer's disease progression modelling

The progression of neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer's Disease, is the result of complex mechanisms interacting across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Understanding and predicting the longitudinal course of the disease requires harnessing the variability across different data modalities and time, which is extremely challenging. In this paper, we propose a model based on recurrent variational autoencoders that is able to capture cross-channel interactions between different modalities and model temporal information. These are achieved thanks to its multi-channel architecture and its shared latent variational space, parametrized with a recurrent neural network. We evaluate our model on both synthetic and real longitudinal datasets, the latter including imaging and non-imaging data, with N=897 subjects. Results show that our multi-channel recurrent variational autoencoder outperforms a set of baselines (KNN, random forest, and group factor analysis) for the task of reconstructing missing modalities, reducing the mean absolute error by 5% (w.r.t. the best baseline) for both subcortical volumes and cortical thickness. Our model is robust to missing features within each modality and is able to generate realistic synthetic imaging biomarkers trajectories from cognitive scores.

Harnessing the potential of machine learning and artificial intelligence for dementia research

Progress in dementia research has been limited, with substantial gaps in our knowledge of targets for prevention, mechanisms for disease progression, and disease-modifying treatments. The growing availability of multimodal data sets opens possibilities for the application of machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) to help answer key questions in the field. We provide an overview of the state of the science, highlighting current challenges and opportunities for utilisation of AI approaches to move the field forward in the areas of genetics, experimental medicine, drug discovery and trials optimisation, imaging, and prevention. Machine learning methods can enhance results of genetic studies, help determine biological effects and facilitate the identification of drug targets based on genetic and transcriptomic information. The use of unsupervised learning for understanding disease mechanisms for drug discovery is promising, while analysis of multimodal data sets to characterise and quantify disease severity and subtype are also beginning to contribute to optimisation of clinical trial recruitment. Data-driven experimental medicine is needed to analyse data across modalities and develop novel algorithms to translate insights from animal models to human disease biology. AI methods in neuroimaging outperform traditional approaches for diagnostic classification, and although challenges around validation and translation remain, there is optimism for their meaningful integration to clinical practice in the near future. AI-based models can also clarify our understanding of the causality and commonality of dementia risk factors, informing and improving risk prediction models along with the development of preventative interventions. The complexity and heterogeneity of dementia requires an alternative approach beyond traditional design and analytical approaches. Although not yet widely used in dementia research, machine learning and AI have the potential to unlock current challenges and advance precision dementia medicine.

A multidimensional ODE-based model of Alzheimer's disease progression

Data-driven Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression models are useful for clinical prediction, disease mechanism understanding, and clinical trial design. Most dynamic models were inspired by the amyloid cascade hypothesis and described AD progression as a linear chain of pathological events. However, the heterogeneity observed in healthy and sporadic AD populations challenged the amyloid hypothesis, and there is a need for more flexible dynamical models that accompany this conceptual shift. We present a statistical model of the temporal evolution of biomarkers and cognitive tests that allows diverse biomarker paths throughout the disease. The model consists of two elements: a multivariate dynamic model of the joint evolution of biomarkers and cognitive tests; and a clinical prediction model. The dynamic model uses a system of ordinary differential equations to jointly model the rate of change of an individual's biomarkers and cognitive tests. The clinical prediction model is an ordinal logistic model of the diagnostic label. Prognosis and time-to-onset predictions are obtained by computing the clinical label probabilities throughout the forecasted biomarker trajectories. The proposed dynamical model is interpretable, free of one-dimensional progression hypotheses or disease staging paradigms, and can account for the heterogeneous dynamics observed in sporadic AD. We developed the model using longitudinal data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. We illustrate the patterns of biomarker rates of change and the model performance to predict the time to conversion from MCI to dementia.

Italian, European, and international neuroinformatics efforts: An overview

Neuroinformatics is a research field that focusses on software tools capable of identifying, analysing, modelling, organising and sharing multiscale neuroscience data. Neuroinformatics has exploded in the last two decades with the emergence of the Big Data phenomenon, characterised by the so-called 3Vs (volume, velocity and variety), which provided neuroscientists with an improved ability to acquire and process data faster and more cheaply thanks to technical improvements in clinical, genomic and radiological technologies. This situation has led to a 'data deluge', as neuroscientists can routinely collect more study data in a few days than they could in a year just a decade ago. To address this phenomenon, several neuroimaging-focussed neuroinformatics platforms have emerged, funded by national or transnational agencies, with the following goals: (i) development of tools for archiving and organising analytical data (XNAT, REDCap and LabKey); (ii) development of data-driven models evolving from reductionist approaches to multidimensional models (RIN, IVN, HBD, EuroPOND, E-DADS and GAAIN BRAIN); and (iii) development of e-infrastructures to provide sufficient computational power and storage resources (neuGRID, HBP-EBRAINS, LONI and CONP). Although the scenario is still fragmented, there are technological and economical attempts at both national and international levels to introduce high standards for open and Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR) neuroscience worldwide.

Chronic neuropsychiatric sequelae of SARS-CoV-2: Protocol and methods from the Alzheimer's Association Global Consortium

Introduction

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused >3.5 million deaths worldwide and affected >160 million people. At least twice as many have been infected but remained asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic. COVID-19 includes central nervous system manifestations mediated by inflammation and cerebrovascular, anoxic, and/or viral neurotoxicity mechanisms. More than one third of patients with COVID-19 develop neurologic problems during the acute phase of the illness, including loss of sense of smell or taste, seizures, and stroke. Damage or functional changes to the brain may result in chronic sequelae. The risk of incident cognitive and neuropsychiatric complications appears independent from the severity of the original pulmonary illness. It behooves the scientific and medical community to attempt to understand the molecular and/or systemic factors linking COVID-19 to neurologic illness, both short and long term.

Methods

This article describes what is known so far in terms of links among COVID-19, the brain, neurological symptoms, and Alzheimer's disease (AD) and related dementias. We focus on risk factors and possible molecular, inflammatory, and viral mechanisms underlying neurological injury. We also provide a comprehensive description of the Alzheimer's Association Consortium on Chronic Neuropsychiatric Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (CNS SC2) harmonized methodology to address these questions using a worldwide network of researchers and institutions.

Results

Successful harmonization of designs and methods was achieved through a consensus process initially fragmented by specific interest groups (epidemiology, clinical assessments, cognitive evaluation, biomarkers, and neuroimaging). Conclusions from subcommittees were presented to the whole group and discussed extensively. Presently data collection is ongoing at 19 sites in 12 countries representing Asia, Africa, the Americas, and Europe.

Discussion

The Alzheimer's Association Global Consortium harmonized methodology is proposed as a model to study long-term neurocognitive sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Key Points

The following review describes what is known so far in terms of molecular and epidemiological links among COVID-19, the brain, neurological symptoms, and AD and related dementias (ADRD)The primary objective of this large-scale collaboration is to clarify the pathogenesis of ADRD and to advance our understanding of the impact of a neurotropic virus on the long-term risk of cognitive decline and other CNS sequelae. No available evidence supports the notion that cognitive impairment after SARS-CoV-2 infection is a form of dementia (ADRD or otherwise). The longitudinal methodologies espoused by the consortium are intended to provide data to answer this question as clearly as possible controlling for possible confounders. Our specific hypothesis is that SARS-CoV-2 triggers ADRD-like pathology following the extended olfactory cortical network (EOCN) in older individuals with specific genetic susceptibility.The proposed harmonization strategies and flexible study designs offer the possibility to include large samples of under-represented racial and ethnic groups, creating a rich set of harmonized cohorts for future studies of the pathophysiology, determinants, long-term consequences, and trends in cognitive aging, ADRD, and vascular disease.We provide a framework for current and future studies to be carried out within the Consortium. and offers a "green paper" to the research community with a very broad, global base of support, on tools suitable for low- and middle-income countries aimed to compare and combine future longitudinal data on the topic.The Consortium proposes a combination of design and statistical methods as a means of approaching causal inference of the COVID-19 neuropsychiatric sequelae. We expect that deep phenotyping of neuropsychiatric sequelae may provide a series of candidate syndromes with phenomenological and biological characterization that can be further explored. By generating high-quality harmonized data across sites we aim to capture both descriptive and, where possible, causal associations.

Causal machine learning for healthcare and precision medicine

Causal machine learning (CML) has experienced increasing popularity in healthcare. Beyond the inherent capabilities of adding domain knowledge into learning systems, CML provides a complete toolset for investigating how a system would react to an intervention (e.g. outcome given a treatment). Quantifying effects of interventions allows actionable decisions to be made while maintaining robustness in the presence of confounders. Here, we explore how causal inference can be incorporated into different aspects of clinical decision support systems by using recent advances in machine learning. Throughout this paper, we use Alzheimer's disease to create examples for illustrating how CML can be advantageous in clinical scenarios. Furthermore, we discuss important challenges present in healthcare applications such as processing high-dimensional and unstructured data, generalization to out-of-distribution samples and temporal relationships, that despite the great effort from the research community remain to be solved. Finally, we review lines of research within causal representation learning, causal discovery and causal reasoning which offer the potential towards addressing the aforementioned challenges.

Targeted Screening for Alzheimer's Disease Clinical Trials Using Data-Driven Disease Progression Models

Heterogeneity in Alzheimer's disease progression contributes to the ongoing failure to demonstrate efficacy of putative disease-modifying therapeutics that have been trialed over the past two decades. Any treatment effect present in a subgroup of trial participants (responders) can be diluted by non-responders who ideally should have been screened out of the trial. How to identify (screen-in) the most likely potential responders is an important question that is still without an answer. Here, we pilot a computational screening tool that leverages recent advances in data-driven disease progression modeling to improve stratification. This aims to increase the sensitivity to treatment effect by screening out non-responders, which will ultimately reduce the size, duration, and cost of a clinical trial. We demonstrate the concept of such a computational screening tool by retrospectively analyzing a completed double-blind clinical trial of donepezil in people with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (clinicaltrials.gov: NCT00000173), identifying a data-driven subgroup having more severe cognitive impairment who showed clearer treatment response than observed for the full cohort.

Identification of multimodal brain imaging association via a parameter decomposition based sparse multi-view canonical correlation analysis method

BACKGROUND

With the development of noninvasive imaging technology, collecting different imaging measurements of the same brain has become more and more easy. These multimodal imaging data carry complementary information of the same brain, with both specific and shared information being intertwined. Within these multimodal data, it is essential to discriminate the specific information from the shared information since it is of benefit to comprehensively characterize brain diseases. While most existing methods are unqualified, in this paper, we propose a parameter decomposition based sparse multi-view canonical correlation analysis (PDSMCCA) method. PDSMCCA could identify both modality-shared and -specific information of multimodal data, leading to an in-depth understanding of complex pathology of brain disease.

RESULTS

Compared with the SMCCA method, our method obtains higher correlation coefficients and better canonical weights on both synthetic data and real neuroimaging data. This indicates that, coupled with modality-shared and -specific feature selection, PDSMCCA improves the multi-view association identification and shows meaningful feature selection capability with desirable interpretation.

CONCLUSIONS

The novel PDSMCCA confirms that the parameter decomposition is a suitable strategy to identify both modality-shared and -specific imaging features. The multimodal association and the diverse information of multimodal imaging data enable us to better understand the brain disease such as Alzheimer's disease.

Ten years of image analysis and machine learning competitions in dementia

Machine learning methods exploiting multi-parametric biomarkers, especially based on neuroimaging, have huge potential to improve early diagnosis of dementia and to predict which individuals are at-risk of developing dementia. To benchmark algorithms in the field of machine learning and neuroimaging in dementia and assess their potential for use in clinical practice and clinical trials, seven grand challenges have been organized in the last decade: MIRIAD (2012), Alzheimer's Disease Big Data DREAM (2014), CADDementia (2014), Machine Learning Challenge (2014), MCI Neuroimaging (2017), TADPOLE (2017), and the Predictive Analytics Competition (2019). Based on two challenge evaluation frameworks, we analyzed how these grand challenges are complementing each other regarding research questions, datasets, validation approaches, results and impact. The seven grand challenges addressed questions related to screening, clinical status estimation, prediction and monitoring in (pre-clinical) dementia. There was little overlap in clinical questions, tasks and performance metrics. Whereas this aids providing insight on a broad range of questions, it also limits the validation of results across challenges. The validation process itself was mostly comparable between challenges, using similar methods for ensuring objective comparison, uncertainty estimation and statistical testing. In general, winning algorithms performed rigorous data pre-processing and combined a wide range of input features. Despite high state-of-the-art performances, most of the methods evaluated by the challenges are not clinically used. To increase impact, future challenges could pay more attention to statistical analysis of which factors (i.e., features, models) relate to higher performance, to clinical questions beyond Alzheimer's disease, and to using testing data beyond the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Grand challenges would be an ideal venue for assessing the generalizability of algorithm performance to unseen data of other cohorts. Key for increasing impact in this way are larger testing data sizes, which could be reached by sharing algorithms rather than data to exploit data that cannot be shared. Given the potential and lessons learned in the past ten years, we are excited by the prospects of grand challenges in machine learning and neuroimaging for the next ten years and beyond.

Degenerative adversarial neuroimage nets for brain scan simulations: Application in ageing and dementia

Accurate and realistic simulation of high-dimensional medical images has become an important research area relevant to many AI-enabled healthcare applications. However, current state-of-the-art approaches lack the ability to produce satisfactory high-resolution and accurate subject-specific images. In this work, we present a deep learning framework, namely 4D-Degenerative Adversarial NeuroImage Net (4D-DANI-Net), to generate high-resolution, longitudinal MRI scans that mimic subject-specific neurodegeneration in ageing and dementia. 4D-DANI-Net is a modular framework based on adversarial training and a set of novel spatiotemporal, biologically-informed constraints. To ensure efficient training and overcome memory limitations affecting such high-dimensional problems, we rely on three key technological advances: i) a new 3D training consistency mechanism called Profile Weight Functions (PWFs), ii) a 3D super-resolution module and iii) a transfer learning strategy to fine-tune the system for a given individual. To evaluate our approach, we trained the framework on 9852 T1-weighted MRI scans from 876 participants in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset and held out a separate test set of 1283 MRI scans from 170 participants for quantitative and qualitative assessment of the personalised time series of synthetic images. We performed three evaluations: i) image quality assessment; ii) quantifying the accuracy of regional brain volumes over and above benchmark models; and iii) quantifying visual perception of the synthetic images by medical experts. Overall, both quantitative and qualitative results show that 4D-DANI-Net produces realistic, low-artefact, personalised time series of synthetic T1 MRI that outperforms benchmark models.

Rethinking modeling Alzheimer's disease progression from a multi-task learning perspective with deep recurrent neural network

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a severe neurodegenerative disorder that usually starts slowly and progressively worsens. Predicting the progression of Alzheimer's disease with longitudinal analysis on the time series data has recently received increasing attention. However, training an accurate progression model for brain network faces two major challenges: missing features, and the small sample size during the follow-up study. According to our analysis on the AD progression task, we thoroughly analyze the correlation among the multiple predictive tasks of AD progression at multiple time points. Thus, we propose a multi-task learning framework that can adaptively impute missing values and predict future progression over time from a subject's historical measurements. Progression is measured in terms of MRI volumetric measurements, trajectories of a cognitive score and clinical status. To this end, we propose a new perspective of predicting the AD progression with a multi-task learning paradigm. In our multi-task learning paradigm, we hypothesize that the inherent correlations exist among: (i). the prediction tasks of clinical diagnosis, cognition and ventricular volume at each time point; (ii). the tasks of imputation and prediction; and (iii). the prediction tasks at multiple future time points. According to our findings of the task correlation, we develop an end-to-end deep multi-task learning method to jointly improve the performance of assigning missing value and prediction. We design a balanced multi-task dynamic weight optimization. With in-depth analysis and empirical evidence on Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), we show the benefits and flexibility of the proposed multi-task learning model, especially for the prediction at the M60 time point. The proposed approach achieves 5.6%, 5.7%, 4.0% and 11.8% improvement with respect to mAUC, BCA and MAE (ADAS-Cog13 and Ventricles), respectively.

Revealing the Timeline of Structural MRI Changes in Premanifest to Manifest Huntington Disease

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Longitudinal measurements of brain atrophy using structural MRI (sMRI) can provide powerful markers for tracking disease progression in neurodegenerative diseases. In this study, we use a disease progression model to learn individual-level disease times and hence reveal a new timeline of sMRI changes in Huntington disease (HD).

METHODS

We use data from the 2 largest cohort imaging studies in HD-284 participants from TRACK-HD (100 control, 104 premanifest, and 80 manifest) and 159 participants from PREDICT-HD (36 control and 128 premanifest)-to train and test the model. We longitudinally register T1-weighted sMRI scans from 3 consecutive time points to reduce intraindividual variability and calculate regional brain volumes using an automated segmentation tool with rigorous manual quality control.

RESULTS

Our model reveals, for the first time, the relative magnitude and timescale of subcortical and cortical atrophy changes in HD. We find that the largest (∼20% average change in magnitude) and earliest (∼2 years before average abnormality) changes occur in the subcortex (pallidum, putamen, and caudate), followed by a cascade of changes across other subcortical and cortical regions over a period of ∼11 years. We also show that sMRI, when combined with our disease progression model, provides improved prediction of onset over the current best method (root mean square error = 4.5 years and maximum error = 7.9 years vs root mean square error = 6.6 years and maximum error = 18.2 years).

DISCUSSION

Our findings support the use of disease progression modeling to reveal new information from sMRI, which can potentially inform imaging marker selection for clinical trials.

A Multi-Study Model-Based Evaluation of the Sequence of Imaging and Clinical Biomarker Changes in Huntington's Disease

Understanding the order and progression of change in biomarkers of neurodegeneration is essential to detect the effects of pharmacological interventions on these biomarkers. In Huntington’s disease (HD), motor, cognitive and MRI biomarkers are currently used in clinical trials of drug efficacy. Here for the first time we use directly compare data from three large observational studies of HD (total N = 532) using a probabilistic event-based model (EBM) to characterise the order in which motor, cognitive and MRI biomarkers become abnormal. We also investigate the impact of the genetic cause of HD, cytosine-adenine-guanine (CAG) repeat length, on progression through these stages. We find that EBM uncovers a broadly consistent order of events across all three studies; that EBM stage reflects clinical stage; and that EBM stage is related to age and genetic burden. Our findings indicate that measures of subcortical and white matter volume become abnormal prior to clinical and cognitive biomarkers. Importantly, CAG repeat length has a large impact on the timing of onset of each stage and progression through the stages, with a longer repeat length resulting in earlier onset and faster progression. Our results can be used to help design clinical trials of treatments for Huntington’s disease, influencing the choice of biomarkers and the recruitment of participants.

Inter-Cohort Validation of SuStaIn Model for Alzheimer's Disease

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder which spans several years from preclinical manifestations to dementia. In recent years, interest in the application of machine learning (ML) algorithms to personalized medicine has grown considerably, and a major challenge that such models face is the transferability from the research settings to clinical practice. The objective of this work was to demonstrate the transferability of the Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn) model from well-characterized research data set, employed as training set, to independent less-structured and heterogeneous test sets representative of the clinical setting. The training set was composed of MRI data of 1043 subjects from the Alzheimer’s disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), and the test set was composed of data from 767 subjects from OASIS, Pharma-Cog, and ViTA clinical datasets. Both sets included subjects covering the entire spectrum of AD, and for both sets volumes of relevant brain regions were derived from T1-3D MRI scans processed with Freesurfer v5.3 cross-sectional stream. In order to assess the predictive value of the model, subpopulations of subjects with stable mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and MCIs that progressed to AD dementia (pMCI) were identified in both sets. SuStaIn identified three disease subtypes, of which the most prevalent corresponded to the typical atrophy pattern of AD. The other SuStaIn subtypes exhibited similarities with the previously defined hippocampal sparing and limbic predominant atrophy patterns of AD. Subject subtyping proved to be consistent in time for all cohorts and the staging provided by the model was correlated with cognitive performance. Classification of subjects on the basis of a combination of SuStaIn subtype and stage, mini mental state examination and amyloid-β_1-42 cerebrospinal fluid concentration was proven to predict conversion from MCI to AD dementia on par with other novel statistical algorithms, with ROC curves that were not statistically different for the training and test sets and with area under curve respectively equal to 0.77 and 0.76. This study proves the transferability of a SuStaIn model for AD from research data to less-structured clinical cohorts, and indicates transferability to the clinical setting.

Deep recurrent model for individualized prediction of Alzheimer's disease progression

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is known as one of the major causes of dementia and is characterized by slow progression over several years, with no treatments or available medicines. In this regard, there have been efforts to identify the risk of developing AD in its earliest time. While many of the previous works considered cross-sectional analysis, more recent studies have focused on the diagnosis and prognosis of AD with longitudinal or time series data in a way of disease progression modeling. Under the same problem settings, in this work, we propose a novel computational framework that can predict the phenotypic measurements of MRI biomarkers and trajectories of clinical status along with cognitive scores at multiple future time points. However, in handling time series data, it generally faces many unexpected missing observations. In regard to such an unfavorable situation, we define a secondary problem of estimating those missing values and tackle it in a systematic way by taking account of temporal and multivariate relations inherent in time series data. Concretely, we propose a deep recurrent network that jointly tackles the four problems of (i) missing value imputation, (ii) phenotypic measurements forecasting, (iii) trajectory estimation of a cognitive score, and (iv) clinical status prediction of a subject based on his/her longitudinal imaging biomarkers. Notably, the learnable parameters of all the modules in our predictive models are trained in an end-to-end manner by taking the morphological features and cognitive scores as input, with our circumspectly defined loss function. In our experiments over The Alzheimers Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution (TADPOLE) challenge cohort, we measured performance for various metrics and compared our method to competing methods in the literature. Exhaustive analyses and ablation studies were also conducted to better confirm the effectiveness of our method.

Dynamics of Cortical Degeneration Over a Decade in Huntington's Disease

BACKGROUND

Characterizing changing brain structure in neurodegeneration is fundamental to understanding long-term effects of pathology and ultimately providing therapeutic targets. It is well established that Huntington's disease (HD) gene carriers undergo progressive brain changes during the course of disease, yet the long-term trajectory of cortical atrophy is not well defined. Given that genetic therapies currently tested in HD are primarily expected to target the cortex, understanding atrophy across this region is essential.

METHODS

Capitalizing on a unique longitudinal dataset with a minimum of 3 and maximum of 7 brain scans from 49 HD gene carriers and 49 age-matched control subjects, we implemented a novel dynamical systems approach to infer patterns of regional neurodegeneration over 10 years. We use Bayesian hierarchical modeling to map participant- and group-level trajectories of atrophy spatially and temporally, additionally relating atrophy to the genetic marker of HD (CAG-repeat length) and motor and cognitive symptoms.

RESULTS

We show, for the first time, that neurodegenerative changes exhibit complex temporal dynamics with substantial regional variation around the point of clinical diagnosis. Although widespread group differences were seen across the cortex, the occipital and parietal regions undergo the greatest rate of cortical atrophy. We have established links between atrophy and genetic markers of HD while demonstrating that specific cortical changes predict decline in motor and cognitive performance.

CONCLUSIONS

HD gene carriers display regional variability in the spatial pattern of cortical atrophy, which relates to genetic factors and motor and cognitive symptoms. Our findings indicate a complex pattern of neuronal loss, which enables greater characterization of HD progression.

A systematic review of the application of machine-learning algorithms in multiple sclerosis

INTRODUCTION

The applications of artificial intelligence, and in particular automatic learning or "machine learning" (ML), constitute both a challenge and a great opportunity in numerous scientific, technical, and clinical disciplines. Specific applications in the study of multiple sclerosis (MS) have been no exception, and constitute an area of increasing interest in recent years.

OBJECTIVE

We present a systematic review of the application of ML algorithms in MS.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We used the PubMed search engine, which allows free access to the MEDLINE medical database, to identify studies including the keywords "machine learning" and "multiple sclerosis." We excluded review articles, studies written in languages other than English or Spanish, and studies that were mainly technical and did not specifically apply to MS. The final selection included 76 articles, and 38 were rejected.

CONCLUSIONS

After the review process, we established 4 main applications of ML in MS: 1) classifying MS subtypes; 2) distinguishing patients with MS from healthy controls and individuals with other diseases; 3) predicting progression and response to therapeutic interventions; and 4) other applications. Results found to date have shown that ML algorithms may offer great support for health professionals both in clinical settings and in research into MS.

A multilayer multimodal detection and prediction model based on explainable artificial intelligence for Alzheimer's disease

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common type of dementia. Its diagnosis and progression detection have been intensively studied. Nevertheless, research studies often have little effect on clinical practice mainly due to the following reasons: (1) Most studies depend mainly on a single modality, especially neuroimaging; (2) diagnosis and progression detection are usually studied separately as two independent problems; and (3) current studies concentrate mainly on optimizing the performance of complex machine learning models, while disregarding their explainability. As a result, physicians struggle to interpret these models, and feel it is hard to trust them. In this paper, we carefully develop an accurate and interpretable AD diagnosis and progression detection model. This model provides physicians with accurate decisions along with a set of explanations for every decision. Specifically, the model integrates 11 modalities of 1048 subjects from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) real-world dataset: 294 cognitively normal, 254 stable mild cognitive impairment (MCI), 232 progressive MCI, and 268 AD. It is actually a two-layer model with random forest (RF) as classifier algorithm. In the first layer, the model carries out a multi-class classification for the early diagnosis of AD patients. In the second layer, the model applies binary classification to detect possible MCI-to-AD progression within three years from a baseline diagnosis. The performance of the model is optimized with key markers selected from a large set of biological and clinical measures. Regarding explainability, we provide, for each layer, global and instance-based explanations of the RF classifier by using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) feature attribution framework. In addition, we implement 22 explainers based on decision trees and fuzzy rule-based systems to provide complementary justifications for every RF decision in each layer. Furthermore, these explanations are represented in natural language form to help physicians understand the predictions. The designed model achieves a cross-validation accuracy of 93.95% and an F1-score of 93.94% in the first layer, while it achieves a cross-validation accuracy of 87.08% and an F1-Score of 87.09% in the second layer. The resulting system is not only accurate, but also trustworthy, accountable, and medically applicable, thanks to the provided explanations which are broadly consistent with each other and with the AD medical literature. The proposed system can help to enhance the clinical understanding of AD diagnosis and progression processes by providing detailed insights into the effect of different modalities on the disease risk.

Robust parametric modeling of Alzheimer's disease progression

Quantitative characterization of disease progression using longitudinal data can provide long-term predictions for the pathological stages of individuals. This work studies the robust modeling of Alzheimer's disease progression using parametric methods. The proposed method linearly maps the individual's age to a disease progression score (DPS) and jointly fits constrained generalized logistic functions to the longitudinal dynamics of biomarkers as functions of the DPS using M-estimation. Robustness of the estimates is quantified using bootstrapping via Monte Carlo resampling, and the estimated inflection points of the fitted functions are used to temporally order the modeled biomarkers in the disease course. Kernel density estimation is applied to the obtained DPSs for clinical status classification using a Bayesian classifier. Different M-estimators and logistic functions, including a novel type proposed in this study, called modified Stannard, are evaluated on the data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) for robust modeling of volumetric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and positron emission tomography (PET) biomarkers, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) measurements, as well as cognitive tests. The results show that the modified Stannard function fitted using the logistic loss achieves the best modeling performance with an average normalized mean absolute error (NMAE) of 0.991 across all biomarkers and bootstraps. Applied to the ADNI test set, this model achieves a multiclass area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.934 in clinical status classification. The obtained results for the proposed model outperform almost all state-of-the-art results in predicting biomarker values and classifying clinical status. Finally, the experiments show that the proposed model, trained using abundant ADNI data, generalizes well to data from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC) with an average NMAE of 1.182 and a multiclass AUC of 0.929.

Analyzing large Alzheimer's disease cognitive datasets: Considerations and challenges

Recent data-sharing initiatives of clinical and preclinical Alzheimer's disease (AD) have led to a growing number of non-clinical researchers analyzing these datasets using modern data-driven computational methods. Cognitive tests are key components of such datasets, representing the principal clinical tool to establish phenotypes and monitor symptomatic progression. Despite the potential of computational analyses in complementing the clinical understanding of AD, the characteristics and multifactorial nature of cognitive tests are often unfamiliar to computational researchers and other non-specialist audiences. This perspective paper outlines core features, idiosyncrasies, and applications of cognitive test data. We report tests commonly featured in data-sharing initiatives, highlight key considerations in their selection and analysis, and provide suggestions to avoid risks of misinterpretation. Ultimately, the greater transparency of cognitive measures will maximize insights offered in AD, particularly regarding understanding the extent and basis of AD phenotypic heterogeneity.

Disease progression modeling of Alzheimer's disease according to education level

To develop a disease progression model of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) that shows cognitive decline from subjective cognitive impairments (SCI) to the end stage of AD dementia (ADD) and to investigate the effect of education level on the whole disease spectrum, we enrolled 565 patients who were followed up more than three times and had a clinical dementia rating sum of boxes (CDR-SB). Three cohorts, SCI (n = 85), amnestic mild cognitive impairment (AMCI, n = 240), and ADD (n = 240), were overlapped in two consecutive cohorts (SCI and AMCI, AMCI and ADD) to construct a model of disease course, and a model with multiple single-cohorts was estimated using a mixed-effect model. To examine the effect of education level on disease progression, the disease progression model was developed with data from lower (≤ 12) and higher (> 12) education groups. Disease progression takes 274.3 months (22.9 years) to advance from 0 to 18 points using the CDR-SB. Based on our predictive equation, it takes 116.5 months to progress from SCI to AMCI and 56.2 months to progress from AMCI to ADD. The rate of CDR-SB progression was different according to education level. The lower-education group showed faster CDR-SB progression from SCI to AMCI compared to the higher-education group, and this trend disappeared from AMCI to ADD. In the present study, we developed a disease progression model of AD spectrum from SCI to the end stage of ADD. Our disease modeling provides us with more understanding of the effect of education on cognitive trajectories.

Cyclase-associated protein 2 dimerization regulates cofilin in synaptic plasticity and Alzheimer's disease

Regulation of actin cytoskeleton dynamics in dendritic spines is crucial for learning and memory formation. Hence, defects in the actin cytoskeleton pathways are a biological trait of several brain diseases, including Alzheimer's disease. Here, we describe a novel synaptic mechanism governed by the cyclase-associated protein 2, which is required for structural plasticity phenomena and completely disrupted in Alzheimer's disease. We report that the formation of cyclase-associated protein 2 dimers through its Cys³² is important for cyclase-associated protein 2 binding to cofilin and for actin turnover. The Cys³²-dependent cyclase-associated protein 2 homodimerization and association to cofilin are triggered by long-term potentiation and are required for long-term potentiation-induced cofilin translocation into spines, spine remodelling and the potentiation of synaptic transmission. This mechanism is specifically affected in the hippocampus, but not in the superior frontal gyrus, of both Alzheimer's disease patients and APP/PS1 mice, where cyclase-associated protein 2 is down-regulated and cyclase-associated protein 2 dimer synaptic levels are reduced. Notably, cyclase-associated protein 2 levels in the cerebrospinal fluid are significantly increased in Alzheimer's disease patients but not in subjects affected by frontotemporal dementia. In Alzheimer's disease hippocampi, cofilin association to cyclase-associated protein 2 dimer/monomer is altered and cofilin is aberrantly localized in spines. Taken together, these results provide novel insights into structural plasticity mechanisms that are defective in Alzheimer's disease.

Sequences of cognitive decline in typical Alzheimer's disease and posterior cortical atrophy estimated using a novel event-based model of disease progression

Introduction

This work aims to characterize the sequence in which cognitive deficits appear in two dementia syndromes.

Methods

Event‐based modeling estimated fine‐grained sequences of cognitive decline in clinically‐diagnosed posterior cortical atrophy (PCA) (n=94) and typical Alzheimer's disease (tAD) (n=61) at the UCL Dementia Research Centre. Our neuropsychological battery assessed memory, vision, arithmetic, and general cognition. We adapted the event‐based model to handle highly non‐Gaussian data such as cognitive test scores where ceiling/floor effects are common.

Results

Experiments revealed differences and similarities in the fine‐grained ordering of cognitive decline in PCA (vision first) and tAD (memory first). Simulation experiments reveal that our new model equals or exceeds performance of the classic event‐based model, especially for highly non‐Gaussian data.

Discussion

Our model recovered realistic, phenotypical progression signatures that may be applied in dementia clinical trials for enrichment, and as a data‐driven composite cognitive end‐point.

A survey on machine and statistical learning for longitudinal analysis of neuroimaging data in Alzheimer's disease

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Recently, longitudinal studies of Alzheimer's disease have gathered a substantial amount of neuroimaging data. New methods are needed to successfully leverage and distill meaningful information on the progression of the disease from the deluge of available data. Machine learning has been used successfully for many different tasks, including neuroimaging related problems. In this paper, we review recent statistical and machine learning applications in Alzheimer's disease using longitudinal neuroimaging.

METHODS

We search for papers using longitudinal imaging data, focused on Alzheimer's Disease and published between 2007 and 2019 on four different search engines.

RESULTS

After the search, we obtain 104 relevant papers. We analyze their approach to typical challenges in longitudinal data analysis, such as missing data and variability in the number and extent of acquisitions.

CONCLUSIONS

Reviewed works show that machine learning methods using longitudinal data have potential for disease progression modelling and computer-aided diagnosis. We compare results and models, and propose future research directions in the field.

The ENIGMA-Epilepsy working group: Mapping disease from large data sets

Epilepsy is a common and serious neurological disorder, with many different constituent conditions characterized by their electro clinical, imaging, and genetic features. MRI has been fundamental in advancing our understanding of brain processes in the epilepsies. Smaller-scale studies have identified many interesting imaging phenomena, with implications both for understanding pathophysiology and improving clinical care. Through the infrastructure and concepts now well-established by the ENIGMA Consortium, ENIGMA-Epilepsy was established to strengthen epilepsy neuroscience by greatly increasing sample sizes, leveraging ideas and methods established in other ENIGMA projects, and generating a body of collaborating scientists and clinicians to drive forward robust research. Here we review published, current, and future projects, that include structural MRI, diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), and resting state functional MRI (rsfMRI), and that employ advanced methods including structural covariance, and event-based modeling analysis. We explore age of onset- and duration-related features, as well as phenomena-specific work focusing on particular epilepsy syndromes or phenotypes, multimodal analyses focused on understanding the biology of disease progression, and deep learning approaches. We encourage groups who may be interested in participating to make contact to further grow and develop ENIGMA-Epilepsy.

Disease Progression Modeling in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Rationale: The decades-long progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) renders identifying different trajectories of disease progression challenging.Objectives: To identify subtypes of patients with COPD with distinct longitudinal progression patterns using a novel machine-learning tool called "Subtype and Stage Inference" (SuStaIn) and to evaluate the utility of SuStaIn for patient stratification in COPD.Methods: We applied SuStaIn to cross-sectional computed tomography imaging markers in 3,698 Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 1-4 patients and 3,479 controls from the COPDGene (COPD Genetic Epidemiology) study to identify subtypes of patients with COPD. We confirmed the identified subtypes and progression patterns using ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints) data. We assessed the utility of SuStaIn for patient stratification by comparing SuStaIn subtypes and stages at baseline with longitudinal follow-up data.Measurements and Main Results: We identified two trajectories of disease progression in COPD: a "Tissue→Airway" subtype (n = 2,354, 70.4%), in which small airway dysfunction and emphysema precede large airway wall abnormalities, and an "Airway→Tissue" subtype (n = 988, 29.6%), in which large airway wall abnormalities precede emphysema and small airway dysfunction. Subtypes were reproducible in ECLIPSE. Baseline stage in both subtypes correlated with future FEV₁/FVC decline (r = -0.16 [P < 0.001] in the Tissue→Airway group; r = -0.14 [P = 0.011] in the Airway→Tissue group). SuStaIn placed 30% of smokers with normal lung function at elevated stages, suggesting imaging changes consistent with early COPD. Individuals with early changes were 2.5 times more likely to meet COPD diagnostic criteria at follow-up.Conclusions: We demonstrate two distinct patterns of disease progression in COPD using SuStaIn, likely representing different endotypes. One third of healthy smokers have detectable imaging changes, suggesting a new biomarker of "early COPD."

Impact of a Clinical Decision Support Tool on Dementia Diagnostics in Memory Clinics: The PredictND Validation Study

BACKGROUND

Determining the underlying etiology of dementia can be challenging. Computer- based Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS) have the potential to provide an objective comparison of data and assist clinicians.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the diagnostic impact of a CDSS, the PredictND tool, for differential diagnosis of dementia in memory clinics.

METHODS

In this prospective multicenter study, we recruited 779 patients with either subjective cognitive decline (n=252), mild cognitive impairment (n=219) or any type of dementia (n=274) and followed them for minimum 12 months. Based on all available patient baseline data (demographics, neuropsychological tests, cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers, and MRI visual and computed ratings), the PredictND tool provides a comprehensive overview and analysis of the data with a likelihood index for five diagnostic groups; Alzheimer´s disease, vascular dementia, dementia with Lewy bodies, frontotemporal dementia and subjective cognitive decline. At baseline, a clinician defined an etiological diagnosis and confidence in the diagnosis, first without and subsequently with the PredictND tool. The follow-up diagnosis was used as the reference diagnosis.

RESULTS

In total, 747 patients completed the follow-up visits (53% female, 69±10 years). The etiological diagnosis changed in 13% of all cases when using the PredictND tool, but the diagnostic accuracy did not change significantly. Confidence in the diagnosis, measured by a visual analogue scale (VAS, 0-100%) increased (ΔVAS=3.0%, p<0.0001), especially in correctly changed diagnoses (ΔVAS=7.2%, p=0.0011).

CONCLUSION

Adding the PredictND tool to the diagnostic evaluation affected the diagnosis and increased clinicians' confidence in the diagnosis indicating that CDSSs could aid clinicians in the differential diagnosis of dementia.

Data science in neurodegenerative disease: its capabilities, limitations, and perspectives

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

With the advancement of computational approaches and abundance of biomedical data, a broad range of neurodegenerative disease models have been developed. In this review, we argue that computational models can be both relevant and useful in neurodegenerative disease research and although the current established models have limitations in clinical practice, artificial intelligence has the potential to overcome deficiencies encountered by these models, which in turn can improve our understanding of disease.

RECENT FINDINGS

In recent years, diverse computational approaches have been used to shed light on different aspects of neurodegenerative disease models. For example, linear and nonlinear mixed models, self-modeling regression, differential equation models, and event-based models have been applied to provide a better understanding of disease progression patterns and biomarker trajectories. Additionally, the Cox-regression technique, Bayesian network models, and deep-learning-based approaches have been used to predict the probability of future incidence of disease, whereas nonnegative matrix factorization, nonhierarchical cluster analysis, hierarchical agglomerative clustering, and deep-learning-based approaches have been employed to stratify patients based on their disease subtypes. Furthermore, the interpretation of neurodegenerative disease data is possible through knowledge-based models which use prior knowledge to complement data-driven analyses. These knowledge-based models can include pathway-centric approaches to establish pathways perturbed in a given condition, as well as disease-specific knowledge maps, which elucidate the mechanisms involved in a given disease. Collectively, these established models have revealed high granular details and insights into neurodegenerative disease models.

SUMMARY

In conjunction with increasingly advanced computational approaches, a wide spectrum of neurodegenerative disease models, which can be broadly categorized into data-driven and knowledge-driven, have been developed. We review the state of the art data and knowledge-driven models and discuss the necessary steps which are vital to bring them into clinical application.

Robust Markers and Sample Sizes for Multicenter Trials of Huntington Disease

Objective

The identification of sensitive biomarkers is essential to validate therapeutics for Huntington disease (HD). We directly compare structural imaging markers across the largest collective imaging HD dataset to identify a set of imaging markers robust to multicenter variation and to derive upper estimates on sample sizes for clinical trials in HD.

Methods

We used 1 postprocessing pipeline to retrospectively analyze T1‐weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans from 624 participants at 3 time points, from the PREDICT‐HD, TRACK‐HD, and IMAGE‐HD studies. We used mixed effects models to adjust regional brain volumes for covariates, calculate effect sizes, and simulate possible treatment effects in disease‐affected anatomical regions. We used our model to estimate the statistical power of possible treatment effects for anatomical regions and clinical markers.

Results

We identified a set of common anatomical regions that have similarly large standardized effect sizes (>0.5) between healthy control and premanifest HD (PreHD) groups. These included subcortical, white matter, and cortical regions and nonventricular cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). We also observed a consistent spatial distribution of effect size by region across the whole brain. We found that multicenter studies were necessary to capture treatment effect variance; for a 20% treatment effect, power of >80% was achieved for the caudate (n = 661), pallidum (n = 687), and nonventricular CSF (n = 939), and, crucially, these imaging markers provided greater power than standard clinical markers.

Interpretation

Our findings provide the first cross‐study validation of structural imaging markers in HD, supporting the use of these measurements as endpoints for both observational studies and clinical trials. ANN NEUROL 2020;87:751–762

Altered neurotransmission and neuroimaging biomarkers of chronic arsenic poisoning in wild muskrats (Ondatra zibethicus) and red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) breeding near the City of Yellowknife, Northwest Territories (Canada)

Chronic arsenic poisoning has been shown to be a risk factor for the development of intellectual disability. Numerous human and animal studies have also confirmed that low-level arsenic exposure has deleterious effects on neurotransmission and brain structures which have been further linked to neurobehavioral disorders. The aim of this present work was to comparatively assess structural brain volume changes and alteration of two (2) neurotransmitters, specifically dopamine (DA) and serotonin (5-HT) in the brains of wild muskrats and squirrels breeding in arsenic endemic areas, near the vicinity of the abandoned Giant mine site in Yellowknife and in reference locations between 52 and 105 km from the city of Yellowknife. The levels of DA and 5-HT were measured in the brain tissues, and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) was used to attempt brain volume measurements. The results revealed that the concentrations of DA and 5-HT were slightly increased in the brains of squirrels from the arsenic endemic areas compared to the reference site. Further, DA and 5-HT were slightly reduced in the brains of muskrats from the arsenic endemic areas compared to the reference location. In general, no statistically significant neurotransmission changes and differences were observed in the brain tissues of muskrats and squirrels from both arsenic endemic areas and non-endemic sites. Although MRI results showed that the brain volumes of squirrels and muskrats were not statistically different between sites after multiple comparison correction; it was noted that core brain regions were substantially affected in muskrats, in particular the hippocampal memory circuit, striatum and thalamus. Squirrel brains showed more extensive neuroanatomical changes, likely due to their relatively smaller body mass, with extensive shrinkage of the core brain structures, and the cortex, even after accounting for differences in overall brain size. The results of this present study constitute the first observation of neuroanatomical changes in wild small mammal species breeding in arsenic endemic areas of Canada.

Challenges of Integrative Disease Modeling in Alzheimer's Disease

Dementia-related diseases like Alzheimer's Disease (AD) have a tremendous social and economic cost. A deeper understanding of its underlying pathophysiologies may provide an opportunity for earlier detection and therapeutic intervention. Previous approaches for characterizing AD were targeted at single aspects of the disease. Yet, due to the complex nature of AD, the success of these approaches was limited. However, in recent years, advancements in integrative disease modeling, built on a wide range of AD biomarkers, have taken a global view on the disease, facilitating more comprehensive analysis and interpretation. Integrative AD models can be sorted in two primary types, namely hypothetical models and data-driven models. The latter group split into two subgroups: (i) Models that use traditional statistical methods such as linear models, (ii) Models that take advantage of more advanced artificial intelligence approaches such as machine learning. While many integrative AD models have been published over the last decade, their impact on clinical practice is limited. There exist major challenges in the course of integrative AD modeling, namely data missingness and censoring, imprecise human-involved priori knowledge, model reproducibility, dataset interoperability, dataset integration, and model interpretability. In this review, we highlight recent advancements and future possibilities of integrative modeling in the field of AD research, showcase and discuss the limitations and challenges involved, and finally, propose avenues to address several of these challenges.

Differences in topological progression profile among neurodegenerative diseases from imaging data

The spatial distribution of atrophy in neurodegenerative diseases suggests that brain connectivity mediates disease propagation. Different descriptors of the connectivity graph potentially relate to different underlying mechanisms of propagation. Previous approaches for evaluating the influence of connectivity on neurodegeneration consider each descriptor in isolation and match predictions against late-stage atrophy patterns. We introduce the notion of a topological profile - a characteristic combination of topological descriptors that best describes the propagation of pathology in a particular disease. By drawing on recent advances in disease progression modeling, we estimate topological profiles from the full course of pathology accumulation, at both cohort and individual levels. Experimental results comparing topological profiles for Alzheimer's disease, multiple sclerosis and normal ageing show that topological profiles explain the observed data better than single descriptors. Within each condition, most individual profiles cluster around the cohort-level profile, and individuals whose profiles align more closely with other cohort-level profiles show features of that cohort. The cohort-level profiles suggest new insights into the biological mechanisms underlying pathology propagation in each disease.

Evaluating the reliability of neurocognitive biomarkers of neurodegenerative diseases across countries: A machine learning approach

Accurate early diagnosis of neurodegenerative diseases represents a growing challenge for current clinical practice. Promisingly, current tools can be complemented by computational decision-support methods to objectively analyze multidimensional measures and increase diagnostic confidence. Yet, widespread application of these tools cannot be recommended unless they are proven to perform consistently and reproducibly across samples from different countries. We implemented machine-learning algorithms to evaluate the prediction power of neurocognitive biomarkers (behavioral and imaging measures) for classifying two neurodegenerative conditions –Alzheimer Disease (AD) and behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD)– across three different countries (>200 participants). We use machine-learning tools integrating multimodal measures such as cognitive scores (executive functions and cognitive screening) and brain atrophy volume (voxel based morphometry from fronto-temporo-insular regions in bvFTD, and temporo-parietal regions in AD) to identify the most relevant features in predicting the incidence of the diseases. In the Country-1 cohort, predictions of AD and bvFTD became maximally improved upon inclusion of cognitive screenings outcomes combined with atrophy levels. Multimodal training data from this cohort allowed predicting both AD and bvFTD in the other two novel datasets from other countries with high accuracy (>90%), demonstrating the robustness of the approach as well as the differential specificity and reliability of behavioral and neural markers for each condition. In sum, this is the first study, across centers and countries, to validate the predictive power of cognitive signatures combined with atrophy levels for contrastive neurodegenerative conditions, validating a benchmark for future assessments of reliability and reproducibility.

Robust automated computational approach for classifying frontotemporal neurodegeneration: Multimodal/multicenter neuroimaging

INTRODUCTION

Timely diagnosis of behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD) remains challenging because it depends on clinical expertise and potentially ambiguous diagnostic guidelines. Recent recommendations highlight the role of multimodal neuroimaging and machine learning methods as complementary tools to address this problem.

METHODS

We developed an automatic, cross-center, multimodal computational approach for robust classification of patients with bvFTD and healthy controls. We analyzed structural magnetic resonance imaging and resting-state functional connectivity from 44 patients with bvFTD and 60 healthy controls (across three imaging centers with different acquisition protocols) using a fully automated processing pipeline, including site normalization, native space feature extraction, and a random forest classifier.

RESULTS

Our method successfully combined multimodal imaging information with high accuracy (91%), sensitivity (83.7%), and specificity (96.6%).

DISCUSSION

This multimodal approach enhanced the system's performance and provided a clinically informative method for neuroimaging analysis. This underscores the relevance of combining multimodal imaging and machine learning as a gold standard for dementia diagnosis.

Forecasting the progression of Alzheimer's disease using neural networks and a novel preprocessing algorithm

INTRODUCTION

There is a 99.6% failure rate of clinical trials for drugs to treat Alzheimer's disease, likely because Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients cannot be easily identified at early stages. This study investigated machine learning approaches to use clinical data to predict the progression of AD in future years.

METHODS

Data from 1737 patients were processed using the "All-Pairs" technique, a novel methodology created for this study involving the comparison of all possible pairs of temporal data points for each patient. Machine learning models were trained on these processed data and evaluated using a separate testing data set (110 patients).

RESULTS

A neural network model was effective (mAUC = 0.866) at predicting the progression of AD, both in patients who were initially cognitively normal and in patients suffering from mild cognitive impairment.

DISCUSSION

Such a model could be used to identify patients at early stages of AD and who are therefore good candidates for clinical trials for AD therapeutics.