Responses of butterflies to twentieth century climate warming: implications for future ranges

Butterfly populations flutter bye

Systematic analysis reveals decades-long decline in US butterfly population abundance.

Climate change extinctions

Climate change is expected to cause irreversible changes to biodiversity, but predicting those risks remains uncertain. I synthesized 485 studies and more than 5 million projections to produce a quantitative global assessment of climate change extinctions. With increased certainty, this meta-analysis suggests that extinctions will accelerate rapidly if global temperatures exceed 1.5°C. The highest-emission scenario would threaten approximately one-third of species, globally. Amphibians; species from mountain, island, and freshwater ecosystems; and species inhabiting South America, Australia, and New Zealand face the greatest threats. In line with predictions, climate change has contributed to an increasing proportion of observed global extinctions since 1970. Besides limiting greenhouse gases, pinpointing which species to protect first will be critical for preserving biodiversity until anthropogenic climate change is halted and reversed.

Habitat Suitability of Danaus genutia Based on the Optimized MaxEnt Model

Danaus genutia, commonly known as the tiger butterfly, is a visually appealing species in the Danaidae family. As it is not currently classified as endangered, it is excluded from key protected species lists at national and local levels, limiting focus on its population and habitat status, which may result in it being overlooked in local butterfly conservation initiatives. Yunnan, characterized by high butterfly diversity, presents an ideal region for studying habitat suitability for D. genutia, which may support the conservation of regional biodiversity. This study employs the MaxEnt ecological niche model, predictions regarding suitable habitat distribution, and trends for D. genutia and identifying primary environmental factors influencing their distribution. The results indicate that the niche model that includes interspecies relationships provides a distribution prediction closely aligned with the observed range of D. genutia. Under current climatic conditions, highly suitable habitats for both D. genutia and its host plant, Cynanchun annularium, are located predominantly in the Yuanjiang River Valley. Optimal conditions occur at average annual temperatures of 19.80-22 °C for D. genutia and 22-24 °C for C. annularium. The distribution range of C. annularium is a vital biological factor limiting D. genutia's habitat. By 2040, projections under four future climate scenarios indicate a potential increase in the total area of suitable habitats for D. genutia, with a general trend of northward expansion.

Habitat management interventions for a specialist mid- successional grassland butterfly, the Lulworth Skipper

Evidence-based management is needed to reverse declines in insect abundance. The Lulworth Skipper Thymelicus acteon is a range-restricted and declining species in the UK and northern Europe associated with mid-successional grassland, which presents management challenges because interventions are necessary to prevent long-term habitat deterioration but can result in short-term reductions in quality. In addition, site management should be compatible for the focal species and for wider plant and insect diversity. We conducted factorial experimental management trials to understand effects of cutting and rotovation on the height and structure of vegetation containing the larval host plant Tor-grass Brachypodium rupestre. We monitored vegetation height, B. rupestre cover and plant diversity, and T. acteon larval presence over four years. Rotovation and cutting differed in their effects on habitat structure and larval occupancy relative to controls. Vegetation height and host plant cover, the most important components of habitat quality for T. acteon, were faster to recover to suitable levels on cut plots. However, larval occupancy increased more quickly on rotovated plots, where plant species diversity was also higher. Results suggest that due to initial negative impacts of interventions on T. acteon occupancy, low frequency or low-intensity management, such as managing sections of a site every three years, is advisable. Our results show that rotovation or cutting the sward can be suitable for mid-successional grassland species such as Lulworth Skipper on sites where grazing might be problematic. Rotational grazing or rotovation can maintain suitable conditions for habitat specialist insects requiring a range of different grassland conditions, serving wider conservation goals.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10841-024-00638-4.

Standard metabolic rate variation among New Zealand Orthoptera

Standard metabolic rates (SMR) of ectotherms reflect the energetic cost of self-maintenance and thus provide important information about life-history strategies of organisms. We examined variation in SMR among fifteen species of New Zealand orthopteran. These species represent a heterogeneous group with a wide geographic distribution, differing morphologies and life histories. Gathering original data on morphological and physiological traits of individual species is a first step towards understanding existing variability. Individual metabolic rates of ectotherms are one of the first traits to respond to climate change. Baseline SMR datasets are valuable for modeling current species distributions and their responses to a changing climate. At higher latitudes, the average environmental temperature decreases. The pattern that cold-adapted ectotherms display higher SMR at colder temperatures and greater thermal sensitivity to compensate for lower temperatures and the shorter growing and reproductive seasons is predicted from the metabolic cold adaptation (MCA) hypothesis. We predict higher SMR for the orthopteran species found at higher latitudes. We further compared the index of thermal sensitivity Q10 per species. We used closed-system respirometry to measure SMR, at two test temperatures (4 °C and 14 °C), for the fifteen species acclimated to the same conditions. As expected, we found significant differences in SMR among species. The rate of oxygen consumption was positively correlated with body mass. Our findings do not support the MCA hypothesis. In fact, we found evidence of co-gradient variation in SMR, whereby insects from higher elevations and latitudes presented lower SMR. We discuss our findings in relation to life histories and ecology of each species. The novel physiological data presented will aid in understanding potential responses of these unusual species to changing climatic conditions in Aotearoa/New Zealand.

How Climate Warming Influences the Phenology of Grapholita molesta (Busck, 1916) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in China: Insight from Long-Term Historical Data

Grapholita molesta (Busck, 1916), a significant pest affecting various fruits such as pears, apples, peaches, etc., is highly adaptable to changing temperatures. However, the phenological response mechanism of this pest to climate warming remains unclear. To address this issue, we collected population dynamics data of G. molesta in China over the years along with corresponding climate data. We analyzed five phenological indexes: the first, end, and peak occurrence dates of contemporary adults as well as the first and peak occurrence dates of overwintering adults in China. Results revealed an upward trend in the annual average temperature and average temperature of the four seasons in regions infested by G. molesta in eastern, northeastern, northwestern, northern, and southwestern China from 1980 to 2020. Notably, the population peak date of overwintering adults in northeastern and eastern China significantly advanced along with the first occurrence date and the population peak date of overwintering adults in northern China. Additionally, the population peak date of contemporary adults in northwestern China significantly advanced. However, the end occurrence date of contemporary adults in northern China was significantly delayed, as was the first occurrence date of overwintering adults in northwestern China. Furthermore, our study demonstrated spatial heterogeneity in the phenological response of G. molesta to climate warming across China. This study elucidates the phenological response of G. molesta to climate warming, offering valuable insights for predicting future pest infestations and informing adaptive pest management strategies in fruit tree cultivation.

Upward and Poleward (but Not Phenological) Shifts in a Forest Tenebrionid Beetle in Response to Global Change in a Mediterranean Area

There is an increasing volume of literature on the impact of climate change on insects. However, there is an urgent need for more empirical research on underrepresented groups in key areas, including species for which the effects of climatic change may seem less evident. The present paper illustrates the results of a study on a common forest tenebrionid beetle, Accanthopus velikensis (Piller and Mitterpacher, 1783), at a regional scale within the Mediterranean basin. Using a large set of records from Latium (central Italy), changes in the median values of elevation, latitude, longitude, and phenology between two periods (1900-1980 vs. 1981-2022) were tested. Records of A. velikensis in the period 1981-2022 showed median values of elevation and latitude higher than those recorded in the first period. Thus, in response to rising temperatures, the species became more frequent at higher elevation and in northern places. By contrast, A. velikensis does not seem to have changed its activity pattern in response to increased temperatures, but this might be an artifact due to the inclusion of likely overwintering individuals. The results obtained for A. velikensis indicate that even thermally euryoecious species can show changes in their elevational and latitudinal distribution, and that poleward shifts can be apparent even within a small latitudinal gradient.

Rising minimum temperatures contribute to 50 years of occupancy decline among cold-adapted Arctic and boreal butterflies in North America

Global climate change has been identified as a potential driver of observed insect declines, yet in many regions, there are critical data gaps that make it difficult to assess how communities are responding to climate change. Poleward regions are of particular interest because warming is most rapid while biodiversity data are most sparse. Building on recent advances in occupancy modeling of presence-only data, we reconstructed 50 years (1970-2019) of butterfly occupancy trends in response to rising minimum temperatures in one of the most under-sampled regions of North America. Among 90 modeled species, we found that cold-adapted species are far more often in decline compared with their warm-adapted, more southernly distributed counterparts. Furthermore, in a post hoc analysis using species' traits, we find that species' range-wide average annual temperature is the only consistent predictor of occupancy changes. Species with warmer ranges were most likely to be increasing in occupancy. This trend results in the majority of butterflies increasing in occupancy probability over the last 50 years. Our results provide the first look at macroscale butterfly biodiversity shifts in high-latitude North America. These results highlight the potential of leveraging the wealth of presence-only data, the most abundant source of biodiversity data, for inferring changes in species distributions.

More losers than winners: investigating Anthropocene defaunation through the diversity of population trends

The global-scale decline of animal biodiversity ('defaunation') represents one of the most alarming consequences of human impacts on the planet. The quantification of this extinction crisis has traditionally relied on the use of IUCN Red List conservation categories assigned to each assessed species. This approach reveals that a quarter of the world's animal species are currently threatened with extinction, and ~1% have been declared extinct. However, extinctions are preceded by progressive population declines through time that leave demographic 'footprints' that can alert us about the trajectories of species towards extinction. Therefore, an exclusive focus on IUCN conservation categories, without consideration of dynamic population trends, may underestimate the true extent of the processes of ongoing extinctions across nature. In fact, emerging evidence (e.g. the Living Planet Report), reveals a widespread tendency for sustained demographic declines (an average 69% decline in population abundances) of species globally. Yet, animal species are not only declining. Many species worldwide exhibit stable populations, while others are even thriving. Here, using population trend data for >71,000 animal species spanning all five groups of vertebrates (mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fishes) and insects, we provide a comprehensive global-scale assessment of the diversity of population trends across species undergoing not only declines, but also population stability and increases. We show a widespread global erosion of species, with 48% undergoing declines, while 49% and 3% of species currently remain stable or are increasing, respectively. Geographically, we reveal an intriguing pattern similar to that of threatened species, whereby declines tend to concentrate around tropical regions, whereas stability and increases show a tendency to expand towards temperate climates. Importantly, we find that for species currently classed by the IUCN Red List as 'non-threatened', 33% are declining. Critically, in contrast with previous mass extinction events, our assessment shows that the Anthropocene extinction crisis is undergoing a rapid biodiversity imbalance, with levels of declines (a symptom of extinction) greatly exceeding levels of increases (a symptom of ecological expansion and potentially of evolution) for all groups. Our study contributes a further signal indicating that global biodiversity is entering a mass extinction, with ecosystem heterogeneity and functioning, biodiversity persistence, and human well-being under increasing threat.

Niche breadth explains the range size of European-centred butterflies, but dispersal ability does not

Aim

The breadth of ecological niches and dispersal abilities have long been discussed as important determinants of species' range sizes. However, studies directly comparing the relative effects of both factors are rare, taxonomically biased and revealed inconsistent results.

Location

Europe.

Time Period

Cenozoic.

Major Taxa

Butterflies, Lepidoptera.

Methods

We relate climate, diet and habitat niche breadth and two indicators of dispersal ability, wingspan and a dispersal tendency index, to the global range size of 369 European-centred butterfly species. The relative effects of these five predictors and their variation across the butterfly phylogeny were assessed by means of phylogenetic generalized least squares models and phylogenetically weighted regressions respectively.

Results

Climate niche breadth was the most important single predictor, followed by habitat and diet niche breadth, while dispersal tendency and wingspan showed no relation to species' range size. All predictors together explained 59% of the variation in butterfly range size. However, the effects of each predictor varied considerably across families and genera.

Main Conclusions

Range sizes of European-centred butterflies are strongly correlated with ecological niche breadth but apparently independent of dispersal ability. The magnitude of range size-niche breadth relationships is not stationary across the phylogeny and is often negatively correlated across the different dimensions of the ecological niche. This variation limits the generalizability of range size-trait relationships across broad taxonomic groups.

Century-long butterfly range expansions in northern Europe depend on climate, land use and species traits

Climate change is an important driver of range shifts and community composition changes. Still, little is known about how the responses are influenced by the combination of land use, species interactions and species traits. We integrate climate and distributional data for 131 butterfly species in Sweden and Finland and show that cumulative species richness has increased with increasing temperature over the past 120 years. Average provincial species richness increased by 64% (range 15-229%), from 46 to 70. The rate and direction of range expansions have not matched the temperature changes, in part because colonisations have been modified by other climatic variables, land use and vary according to species characteristics representing ecological generalisation and species interactions. Results emphasise the role of a broad ecological filtering, whereby a mismatch between environmental conditions and species preferences limit the ability to disperse and establish populations in emerging climates and novel areas, with potentially widespread implications for ecosystem functioning.

Climate-related range shifts in Arctic-breeding shorebirds

Aim

To test whether the occupancy of shorebirds has changed in the eastern Canadian Arctic, and whether these changes could indicate that shorebird distributions are shifting in response to long-term climate change.

Location

Foxe Basin and Rasmussen Lowlands, Nunavut, Canada.

Methods

We used a unique set of observations, made 25 years apart, using general linear models to test if there was a relationship between changes in shorebird species' occupancy and their species temperature Index, a simple version of a species climate envelope.

Results

Changes in occupancy and density varied widely across species, with some increasing and some decreasing. This is despite that overall population trends are known to be negative for all of these species based on surveys during migration. The changes in occupancy that we observed were positively related to the species temperature index, such that the warmer-breeding species appear to be moving into these regions, while colder-breeding species appear to be shifting out of the regions, likely northward.

Main Conclusions

Our results suggest that we should be concerned about declining breeding habitat availability for bird species whose current breeding ranges are centered on higher and colder latitudes.

Threatened species could be more vulnerable to climate change in tropical countries

Climate change is a major threat impacting insects globally, yet the impact on tropical insects is largely unknown. Here, I assessed the climatic vulnerability of Bangladeshi butterflies (242 species). About 42 % of species could experience range contraction, and the impact could be significantly more severe among threatened species. Depending on Socio-Economic Pathways (ssps), the future climatic condition could be unsuitable for 2 (ssp126) - 34 % (ssp585) species. The mean elevation of the suitable habitat could increase by 238 %, and the situation could be more severe for the threatened butterflies. Further, 54 % of the realised niche of butterflies could be altered. Although there might be no significant association between the shift in habitat suitability along the elevational gradient, migratory species could experience a more significant shift than non-migrants. Overall, climate change could have a severe impact on Bangladeshi butterflies. To mitigate insect decline globally and meet the Post 2020 Biodiversity Framework targets, immediate detection of climate change impact on tropical insects and developing effective conservation strategies is essential.

How do ectotherms perform in cold environments? Physiological and life-history traits in an Andean viviparous lizard

Both the mean and the variation in environmental temperature are increasing globally. Indeed, the predicted increases in temperature range from 2 to 4°C in the next 50 years. Ectotherms control body temperature by means of behavior selecting microsites with different temperatures, which makes them more susceptible to changes in climate. Nevertheless, lizards living in high mountain environments have developed several mechanisms to inhabit and colonize variable environments with extreme temperatures. These mechanisms include a high metabolism to be active at lower temperatures and viviparity to improve embryonic development. Despite behavioral thermoregulation acting as a buffer to changes in environmental temperature, other traits such as life-history traits may be less flexible. Consequently, in an attempt to understand how lizards cope with harsh habitats, we evaluated some physiological traits and responses of females of Liolaemus bellii from two contrasting slope sites with differences in environmental temperature and humidity, but at the same altitude in the southern Andes range. We collected pregnant females from opposite slopes and maintained them until parturition in a common-garden experiment. Females from the south-facing slope (S-slope) had higher preferred body temperature (Tpref) values before and after parturition and exhibited higher daily energy expenditure before parturition. Nevertheless, no difference in Tpref was shown by their offspring, suggesting a developmental plastic response or adaptation to lower environmental temperature. For instance, the higher metabolism during pregnancy could be associated with a shorter activity period on the snowy S-slope. Additionally, females from the S-slope had larger kidneys and gave birth later than N-slope females, likely due to developmental plasticity or genetic differentiation. How fixed these traits are, in individuals from the contrasting slopes, will determine the response capacity of the L. bellii population to climate change.

Where and why are species' range shifts hampered by unsuitable landscapes?

There is widespread concern that species will fail to track climate change if habitat is too scarce or insufficiently connected. Targeted restoration has been advocated to help species adapt, and a "conductance" metric has been proposed, based on simulation studies, to predict effective habitat configurations. However, until now there is very little empirical evidence on how the configuration of habitat is affecting expansion at species' cool range margins. We analysed the colonisation events that have occurred in continuously monitored trap locations for 54 species of southerly distributed moths in Britain between 1985 and 2011. We tested whether the time until colonisation was affected by attributes of each species, and of intervening landcover and climate between the trap and the baseline distribution (1965-1985). For woodland species, the time until colonisation of new locations was predicted by the "conductance" of woodland habitat, and this relationship was general, regardless of species' exact dispersal distances and habitat needs. This shows that contemporary range shifts are being influenced by habitat configuration as well as simple habitat extent. For species associated with farmland or suburban habitats, colonisation was significantly slower through landscapes with a high variance in elevation and/or temperature. Therefore, it is not safe to assume that such relatively tolerant species face no geographical barriers to range expansion. We thus elucidate how species' attributes interact with landscape characteristics to create highly heterogeneous patterns of shifting at cool range margins. Conductance, and other predictors of range shifts, can provide a foundation for developing coherent conservation strategies to manage range shifts for entire communities.

Modulating Effects of Landscape Characteristics on Responses to Warming Differ Among Butterfly Species

Understanding and predicting biodiversity responses to climate change are vital to inform conservation strategies, but this is not straightforward as climate change responses depend on the landscape context and differ among species. Here, we quantified changes in the distribution and abundance of 30 butterfly species in the Netherlands in relation to climate change and in landscapes that vary in the amount and connectivity of (semi-)natural vegetation (SNV). We obtained yearly counts of well-monitored butterfly species from 327 time series over 27 years (1992–2018). We used these counts to build mixed effect hurdle models to relate species’ occurrence and abundance to temperature and the amount and connectivity of SNV around the sites. For 55% of the butterfly species, an increased amount or connectivity of SNV corresponded with stronger increases or reduced decreases in occurrence in response to warming, indicating that SNV may facilitate range expansion or mitigate extirpations due to climate change. However, for the occurrence of the other species we found no or a negative interaction between warming and SNV. Further, we did not find indications of a mitigating effect of SNV on abundance responses to warming. Our results thus suggest that increasing the amount and connectivity of SNV does not offer a “one-size-fits-all” solution, highlighting the need for additional measures if butterfly diversity is to be conserved.

Differences in phenology, daily timing of activity, and associations of temperature utilization with survival in three threatened butterflies

We used observational data collected during a mark-recapture study that generated a total of 7503 captures of 6108 unique individuals representing three endangered butterfly species to quantify inter-and intraindividual variation in temperature utilization and examine how activity patterns vary according to season, time of day, and ambient temperature. The Marsh Fritillary, the Apollo, and the Large Blue differed in utilized temperatures and phenology. Their daily activity patterns responded differently to temperature, in part depending on whether they were active in the beginning, middle or end of the season, in part reflecting interindividual variation and intraindividual flexibility, and in part owing to differences in ecology, morphology, and colouration. Activity temperatures varied over the season, and the Apollo and the Large Blue were primarily active at the highest available ambient temperatures (on the warmest days and during the warmest part of the day). The Marsh Fritillary was active early in the season and decreased activity during the highest temperatures. The relationship between individual lifespan and the average temperature was qualitatively different in the three species pointing to species-specific selection. Lifespan increased with an increasing range of utilized temperatures in all species, possibly reflecting that intra-individual flexibility comes with a general survival benefit.

Seasonal and microclimatic effects on leaf beetles (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae) in a tropical forest fragment in northeastern Mexico

Leaf beetles (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) constitute a family of abundant, diverse, and ecologically important herbivorous insects, due to their high specificity with host plants, a close association with vegetation and a great sensitivity to microclimatic variation (factors that are modified gradually during the rainy and dry seasons). Therefore, the effects of seasonality (rainy and dry seasons) and microclimate on the community attributes of chrysomelids were evaluated in a semideciduous tropical forest fragment of northeastern Mexico. Monthly sampling was conducted, between March 2016 and February 2017, with an entomological sweep net in 18 plots of 20 × 20 m, randomly distributed from 320 to 480 m a.s.l. Seven microclimatic variables were simultaneously recorded during each of the samplings, using a portable weather station. In total, 216 samples were collected at the end of the study, of which 2,103 specimens, six subfamilies, 46 genera, and 71 species were obtained. The subfamily Galerucinae had the highest number of specimens and species in the study area, followed by Cassidinae. Seasonality caused significant changes in the abundance and number of leaf beetle species: highest richness was recorded in the rainy season, with 60 species, while the highest diversity (lowest dominance and highest H’ index) was obtained in the dry season. Seasonal inventory completeness of leaf beetles approached (rainy season) or was higher (dry season) than 70%, while the faunistic similarity between seasons was 0.63%. The outlying mean index was significant in both seasons; of the seven microclimatic variables analyzed, only temperature, heat index, evapotranspiration and wind speed were significantly related to changes in abundance of Chrysomelidae. Association between microclimate and leaf beetles was higher in the dry season, with a difference in the value of importance of the abiotic variables. The results indicated that each species exhibited a different response pattern to the microclimate, depending on the season, which suggests that the species may exhibit modifications in their niche requirements according to abiotic conditions. However, the investigations must be replicated in other regions, in order to obtain a better characterization of the seasonal and microclimatic influence on the family Chrysomelidae.

Changes in Alpine Butterfly Communities during the Last 40 Years

Our work aims to assess how butterfly communities in the Italian Maritime Alps changed over the past 40 years, in parallel with altitudinal shifts occurring in plant communities. In 2019, we sampled butterflies at 7 grassland sites, between 1300-1900 m, previously investigated in 2009 and 1978, by semi-quantitative linear transects. Fine-scale temperature and precipitation data elaborated by optimal interpolation techniques were used to quantify climate changes. The changes in the vegetation cover and main habitat alterations were assessed by inspection of aerial photographs (1978-2018/1978-2006-2015). The vegetation structure showed a marked decrease of grassland habitats and an increase of woods (1978-2009). Plant physiognomy has remained stable in recent years (2009-2019) with some local exceptions due to geomorphic disturbance. We observed butterfly 'species substitution' indicating a general loss in the more specialised and a general gain in more tolerant elements. We did not observe any decrease in species richness, but rather a change in guild compositions, with (i) an overall increased abundance in some widespread and common lowland species and (ii) the disappearance (or strong decrease) of some alpine (high elevation) species, so that 'resilience' could be just delusive. Changes in butterfly community composition were consistent with predicted impacts of local warming.

Oviposition behaviour and emergence through time of the small blue butterfly (Cupido minimus) in a nature reserve in Bedfordshire, UK

ABSTRACT

Climate change affects butterflies in many ways, influencing the timing of emergence and reproduction, habitat preferences, and behaviour. The small blue (Cupido minimus Fuessley, 1775) is highly specialised in its host plant requirements, feeding on the seeds of a single species, kidney vetch (Anthyllis vulneraria), on which the larvae occur singly to avoid cannibalism. The butterfly is likely to be vulnerable to temperature-related changes in oviposition, adult emergence, and host plant flowering times, and is, therefore, a good model species for investigating climate change-related impacts. Using 26 years of data from the national UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (1993-2019) from one nature reserve, and 4 years of targeted egg searches (2006, 2007, 2008, 2020) from three reserves in Bedfordshire, UK, we investigated the effects of local temperature on small blue emergence date and total abundance, whether flowerhead or local environmental characteristics predicted small blue oviposition behaviour, and whether this changed between years. Small blue adults emerged on earlier dates over time, and earlier in years with higher maximum February temperatures. Total adult abundance was not predicted by monthly temperatures or total abundance in the previous year. Oviposition behaviour was broadly consistent across years, with egg presence more likely and egg abundance higher on kidney vetch flowerheads that were taller than the surrounding vegetation, and surrounded by taller vegetation and fewer mature flowerheads. The effect of solar radiation differed between years, with a negative effect on the probability of egg presence in 2007 and 2008, but a positive effect in 2020. Egg abundance per flowerhead was highly variable between years, with 2006 having four times more eggs per flowerhead than other years. This was likely driven by high adult abundance in 2006, which could have increased competition for flowerheads.

IMPLICATIONS FOR INSECT CONSERVATION

Our results indicate that management for greater availability of taller kidney vetch amongst taller vegetation would encourage small blue oviposition on a greater number of flowerheads, providing a possible means of reducing competition and increasing larval survival, and that this would be effective despite variation in adult abundance between years. The high level of competition we observed in the year with the highest adult abundance indicates that higher numbers of host plants should be encouraged to reduce competition and larval cannibalism in peak years, increasing the likelihood of long-term population persistence and growth.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10841-021-00360-5.

Climate change and elevational range shifts in insects

On mountains, unique in their steep and rapid climatic gradients, many insects are shifting their elevational range limits to track recent temperature change. In a review of the range shift literature to date, most of the 1478 montane insect populations tested so far are shifting to higher elevations, but there is conspicuous variation in the responses. We discuss the impact of study methodology as well as potential abiotic and biotic factors that may underlie this variation in climate change response. We encourage more empirical studies spanning greater insect biodiversity and directly testing how variation in species' traits, biogeography, and abiotic-biotic context shapes variation in range shift responses.

Climate change drives mountain butterflies towards the summits

Climate change impacts biodiversity and is driving range shifts of species and populations across the globe. To understand the effects of climate warming on biota, long-term observations of the occurrence of species and detailed knowledge on their ecology and life-history is crucial. Mountain species particularly suffer under climate warming and often respond to environmental changes by altitudinal range shifts. We assessed long-term distribution trends of mountain butterflies across the eastern Alps and calculated species' specific annual range shifts based on field observations and species distribution models, counterbalancing the potential drawbacks of both approaches. We also compiled details on the ecology, behaviour and life-history, and the climate niche of each species assessed. We found that the highest altitudinal maxima were observed recently in the majority of cases, while the lowest altitudes of observations were recorded before 1980. Mobile and generalist species with a broad ecological amplitude tended to move uphill more than specialist and sedentary species. As main drivers we identified climatic conditions and topographic variables, such as insolation and solar irradiation. This study provides important evidence for responses of high mountain taxa to rapid climate change. Our study underlines the advantage of combining historical surveys and museum collection data with cutting-edge analyses.

The role of climate change in pollinator decline across the Northern Hemisphere is underestimated

Pollinator biodiversity loss occurs at unprecedented rates globally, with particularly sharp declines documented in the North Temperate Zone. There is currently no consensus on the main drivers of the decline. Although climate change is expected to drive biodiversity loss in the future, current warming is often suggested to have positive impacts on pollinator assemblages in higher latitudes. Consequently, pollinator conservation initiatives in Europe and the USA tend to lack climate adaptation initiatives, an omission of which may be risky if climate change has significant negative impacts on pollinators. To gain an understanding of the impacts of climate change on pollinator biodiversity in the Northern Hemisphere, we conducted a literature review on genetic, species and community level diversity. Our findings suggest that global heating most likely causes homogenization of pollinator assemblages at all levels of pollinator biodiversity, making them less resilient to future stochasticity. Aspects of biodiversity that are rarely measured (e.g. genetic diversity, β-diversity, species evenness) tend to be most affected, while some dimensions of climate change, such as fluctuations in winter weather conditions, changes in the length of the vegetational season and increased frequency of extreme weather events, that seldom receive attention in empirical studies, tend to be particularly detrimental to pollinators. Negative effects of global heating on pollinator biodiversity are most likely exacerbated by homogenous and fragmented landscapes, widespread across Europe and the US, which limit opportunities for range-shifts and reduce micro-climatic buffering. This suggests the need for conservation initiatives to focus on increasing landscape connectivity and heterogeneity at multiple spatial scales.

Trends in Outbreaks of Defoliating Insects Highlight Growing Threats for Central European Forests and Implications for Eastern Baltic Region

To identify general patterns in the effect of climate-driven changes in the outbreak frequency of forest defoliating species, we examined 60 years of records (1950–2010) of outbreaks of five defoliating species. Data on Lymantria dispar, Lymantria monacha, Bupalus piniarius, Panolis flammea, and Operophtera brumata from five Central European countries (Slovakia, Czech Republic, Austria, Hungary, and Germany), where the current climate is comparable with the projections of climate for the Eastern Baltic region by the end of the 21st century, were analyzed. Time series approach was applied to estimate the linkage between outbreaks and climate warming. Mean annual, summer, and winter deviations for the period of 1850 to 1900 were assessed as proxies of warming. To estimate the legacy effect, warming proxies were lagged by one year. Among those tested, warming proxies showed a linkage with outbreaks. Three significant outbreaks occurred in the analyzed period (at the beginning and end of the period). During the middle part of the analyzed period, the frequency and magnitude of outbreaks were low, implicating a higher insect outbreak risk with warming in Central Europe. In the latter part of the analyzed period, more frequent yet smaller outbreaks occurred, which supports the outbreak linkage with one-year lag, summer, and annual temperatures.

Recovery and analysis of ancient beetle DNA from subfossil packrat middens using high-throughput sequencing

The study of ancient DNA is revolutionizing our understanding of paleo-ecology and the evolutionary history of species. Insects are essential components in many ecosystems and constitute the most diverse group of animals. Yet they are largely neglected in ancient DNA studies. We report the results of the first targeted investigation of insect ancient DNA to positively identify subfossil insects to species, which includes the recovery of endogenous content from samples as old as ~ 34,355 ybp. Potential inhibitors currently limiting widespread research on insect ancient DNA are discussed, including the lack of closely related genomic reference sequences (decreased mapping efficiency) and the need for more extensive collaborations with insect taxonomists. The advantages of insect-based studies are also highlighted, especially in the context of understanding past climate change. In this regard, insect remains from ancient packrat middens are a rich and largely uninvestigated resource for exploring paleo-ecology and species dynamics over time.

Physiological determinants of biogeography: The importance of metabolic depression to heat tolerance

A quantitative understanding of physiological thermal responses is vital for forecasting species distributional shifts in response to climate change. Many studies have focused on metabolic rate as a global metric for analyzing the sublethal effects of changing environments on physiology. Thermal performance curves (TPCs) have been suggested as a viable analytical framework, but standard TPCs may not fully capture physiological responses, due in part to failure to consider the process of metabolic depression. We derived a model based on the nonlinear regression of biological temperature-dependent rate processes and built a heart rate data set for 26 species of intertidal molluscs distributed from 33°S to ~40°N. We then calculated physiological thermal performance limits with continuous heating using T 1 / 2 H , the temperature at which heart rate is decreased to 50% of the maximal rate, as a more realistic measure of upper thermal limits. Results indicate that heat-induced metabolic depression of cardiac performance is a common adaptive response that allows tolerance of harsh environments. Furthermore, our model accounted for the high inter-individual variability in the shape of cardiac TPCs. We then used these TPCs to calculate physiological thermal safety margins (pTSM), the difference between the maximal operative temperature (95th percentile of field temperatures) and T 1 / 2 H of each individual. Using pTSMs, we developed a physiological species distribution model (pSDM) to forecast future geographic distributions. pSDM results indicate that climate-induced species range shifts are potentially less severe than predicted by a simple correlative SDM. Species with metabolic depression below the optimum temperature will be more thermal resistant at their warm trailing edges. High intraspecific variability further suggests that models based on species-level vulnerability to environmental change may be problematic. This multi-scale, mechanistic understanding that incorporates metabolic depression and inter-individual variability in thermal response enables better predictions about the relationship between thermal stress and species distributions.

Long-term stress level in a small mammal species undergoing range expansion

Rapid climate change is currently altering species distribution ranges. Evaluating the long-term stress level in wild species undergoing range expansion may help better understanding how species cope with the changing environment. Here, we focused on the white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus), a widespread small mammal species in North-America whose distribution range is rapidly shifting northward. We evaluated long-term stress level in several populations of P. leucopus in Quebec (Canada), from the northern edge of the species distribution to more core populations in Southern Quebec. We first tested the hypothesis that populations at the range margin are under higher stress than more established populations in the southern region of our study area. We then compared four measures of long-term stress level to evaluate the congruence between these commonly used methods. We did not detect any significant geographical trend in stress level across our study populations of P. leucopus. Most notably, we found no clear congruence between the four measures of stress level we used, and conclude that these four commonly used methods are not equivalent, thereby not comparable across studies.

Improvements in reports of species redistribution under climate change are required

Studies have documented climate change-induced shifts in species distributions but uncertainties associated with data and methods are typically unexplored. We reviewed 240 reports of climate-related species-range shifts and classified them based on three criteria. We ask whether observed distributional shifts are compared against random expectations, whether multicausal factors are examined on equal footing, and whether studies provide sufficient documentation to enable replication. We found that only ~12.1% of studies compare distributional shifts across multiple directions, ~1.6% distinguish observed patterns from random expectations, and ~19.66% examine multicausal factors. Last, ~75.5% of studies report sufficient data and results to allow replication. We show that despite gradual improvements over time, there is scope for raising standards in data and methods within reports of climate-change induced shifts in species distribution. Accurate reporting is important because policy responses depend on them. Flawed assessments can fuel criticism and divert scarce resources for biodiversity to competing priorities.

Reproductive phenology and seasonal mass dynamics of black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) at their northern range limit

Intraspecific variation is common and can be substantial in species occupying large geographic ranges. For example, populations at a poleward range limit can be exposed to more severe and variable weather, resulting in more punctuated growing seasons and, consequently, large fluctuations in body mass and additional constraints on reproductive phenology. We monitored variation in these traits in a hibernating population of black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus (Ord, 1815)) at their northern range limit across four growing seasons. Overall, individual body mass was highly dynamic both within and across growing seasons, and was correlated with sex, the presence of drought, and reproductive effort. This population experienced between-year variation in the timing of reproduction that was associated with weather variation. The influence of weather was particularly evident in 1 year during which a summer–autumn drought was followed by a severe and prolonged winter. This combination led to high overwinter mortality, substantially delayed emergences from hibernation, lower body masses at emergence from hibernation, and complete reproductive failure the following spring. Our results help to emphasize the influence of environmental conditions on levels of phenotypic variation at a species’ northern range limit, which may ultimately contribute to population viability and success.

Review: Plant eco-evolutionary responses to climate change: Emerging directions

Contemporary climate change is exposing plant populations to novel combinations of temperatures, drought stress, [CO₂] and other abiotic and biotic conditions. These changes are rapidly disrupting the evolutionary dynamics of plants. Despite the multifactorial nature of climate change, most studies typically manipulate only one climatic factor. In this opinion piece, we explore how climate change factors interact with each other and with biotic pressures to alter evolutionary processes. We evaluate the ramifications of climate change across life history stages,and examine how mating system variation influences population persistence under rapid environmental change. Furthermore, we discuss how spatial and temporal mismatches between plants and their mutualists and antagonists could affect adaptive responses to climate change. For example, plant-virus interactions vary from highly pathogenic to mildly facilitative, and are partly mediated by temperature, moisture availability and [CO₂]. Will host plants exposed to novel, stressful abiotic conditions be more susceptible to viral pathogens? Finally, we propose novel experimental approaches that could illuminate how plants will cope with unprecedented global change, such as resurrection studies combined with experimental evolution, genomics or epigenetics.

Hot and bothered: The role of behaviour and microclimates in buffering species from rising temperatures

In Focus: Bladon, A. J., Lewis, M., Bladon, E. K., Buckton, S. J., Corbett, S., Ewing, S. R., … Turner, E. C. (2020). How butterflies keep their cool: Physical and ecological traits influence thermoregulatory ability and population trends. Journal of Animal Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13319 Threatened with rising average temperatures and the new normal of climate extremes, species that cannot keep pace with climate change must adapt where they are, or face extinction. The ranges of many British butterflies have indeed extended northwards as the climate has warmed, but this option is increasingly restricted by the expansion and intensification of urban and agricultural lands. On a day-to-day basis, butterflies can thermoregulate using behaviours such as adjusting their wing positioning or moving into suitable microclimates. The extent to which these two options buffer individuals from free-air temperature, however, is not well known. Nor is the extent to which the different mechanisms are exploited by different species, and whether that has had any bearing on species' population trends over the time-scale of recent climate change. Using a simple and easily replicated approach, Bladon et al. (2020) were able to quantify intra- and interspecific variation in buffering ability, and species' relative reliance on the two thermoregulatory mechanisms of wing adjustment versus microclimate selection. The authors report marked variation in buffering capacity, correlated with wing size, wing colouration and taxonomic family. Species also differed in their thermoregulatory behaviours, with some - such as the Ringlet Aphantopus hyperantus and Large Skipper Ochlodes sylvanus-achieving impressive buffering through wing positioning. Others, like the Brown Argus Aricia agestis and Small Heath Coenonympha pamphilus, were more reliant on microclimate selection, and these were the species most likely to have shown declining population trends over the past 40 years. The study underscores the importance of individual thermoregulatory behaviours for understanding species' vulnerability to climate change. In combination with much improved methods for measuring and modelling climate at biologically relevant scales, the approach of Bladon et al. (2020) can and should be extended to identify the places and species most at risk, and the steps that conservation practitioners can take to maximise resilience to climate change. Much attention has been given to improving habitat connectivity to facilitate range shifts, but we should also consider how microclimate availability can be enhanced to allow species to manage when they cannot move.

Searching for synthetic mechanisms on how biological traits mediate species responses to climate change

Abstract: Climate change will likely be the most significant challenge faced by species in this century, and species’ ability to cope with climate change depends on their life history and ecological and evolutionary traits. Understanding how these traits mediate species’ responses is beneficial for identifying more vulnerable species or prone to extinction risk. Here, we carried out a literature review describing how four traits commonly used in vulnerability assessments (i.e. clutch size, diet breadth, dispersal ability, and climatic tolerance) may determine species vulnerability. We also portray the possible mechanisms that explain how these traits govern species responses to climate change. The literature suggests different mechanisms operating for the evaluated traits. The mechanism of response to climate change differs between species inhabiting tropical and temperate regions: while species from the temperate areas may respond positively to temperature rise, tropical species may be severely affected. Since ectotherms depend on environment temperature, they are more sensitive and present different response mechanisms from endotherms.

Microclimate structures communities, predation and herbivory in the High Arctic

In a warming world, changes in climate may result in species‐level responses as well as changes in community structure through knock‐on effects on ecological interactions such as predation and herbivory. Yet, the links between these responses at different levels are still inadequately understood. Assessing how microclimatic conditions affect each of them at local scales provides information essential for understanding the consequences of macroclimatic changes projected in the future.

Focusing on the rapidly changing High Arctic, we examine how a community based on a common resource species (avens, Dryas spp.), a specialist insect herbivore (Sympistis zetterstedtii) and natural enemies of lepidopteran herbivores (parasitoids) varies along a multidimensional microclimatic gradient. We ask (a) how parasitoid community composition varies with local abiotic conditions, (b) how the community‐level response of parasitoids is linked to species‐specific traits (koino‐ or idiobiont life cycle strategy and phenology) and (c) whether the effects of varying abiotic conditions extend to interaction outcomes (parasitism rates on the focal herbivore and realized herbivory rates).

We recorded the local communities of parasitoids, herbivory rates on Dryas flowers and parasitism rates in Sympistis larvae at 20 sites along a mountain slope. For linking community‐level responses to microclimatic conditions with parasitoid traits, we used joint species distribution modelling. We then assessed whether the same abiotic variables also affect parasitism and herbivory rates, by applying generalized linear and additive mixed models.

We find that parasitism strategy and phenology explain local variation in parasitoid community structure. Parasitoids with a koinobiont strategy preferred high‐elevation sites with higher summer temperatures or sites with earlier snowmelt and lower humidity. Species of earlier phenology occurred with higher incidence at sites with cooler summer temperatures or later snowmelt. Microclimatic effects also extend to parasitism and herbivory, with an increase in the parasitism rates of the main herbivore S. zetterstedtii with higher temperature and lower humidity, and a matching increase in herbivory rates.

Our results show that microclimatic variation is a strong driver of local community structure, species interactions and interaction outcomes in Arctic ecosystems. In view of ongoing climate change, these results predict that macroclimatic changes will profoundly affect arctic communities.

Butterfly diversity in Gidakom Forest Management Unit, Thimphu, Bhutan

This study was carried out to establish the diversity and distribution of butterflies in Gidakom Forest Management Unit (GFMU), Thimphu, Bhutan.  A survey was conducted from June 2016 to July 2017 in three locations within GFMU: Jamdo, Chimithanka, and Jedekha.  A total of 90 species belonging to 52 genera and five families of butterflies were recorded.  Nymphalidae was dominant with 38 species, followed by Lycaenidae with 19, Pieridae with 15, Papilionidae with 11, and Hesperiidae with seven species.  Diversity of butterfly species was highest in farmland associated with pockets of forest cover in the lower valley, and a decreasing trend was observed towards higher elevations.  The maximum species richness (83 species) was recorded from Chimithanka between 2500m & 2900m, where agriculture is associated with patches of forest, streams, forest edges, and open scrub land.  Butterfly diversity was lowest at Jedekha above 2,900m (37 species), an area dominated by mixed conifer forest with little agriculture. 

Climate change-driven elevational changes among boreal nocturnal moths

Climate change has shifted geographical ranges of species northwards or to higher altitudes on elevational gradients. These changes have been associated with increases in ambient temperatures. For ectotherms in seasonal environments, however, life history theory relies largely on the length of summer, which varies somewhat independently of ambient temperature per se. Extension of summer reduces seasonal time constraints and enables species to establish in new areas as a result of over-wintering stage reaching in due time. The reduction of time constraints is also predicted to prolong organisms’ breeding season when reproductive potential is under selection. We studied temporal change in the summer length and its effect on species’ performance by combining long-term data on the occurrence and abundance of nocturnal moths with weather conditions in a boreal location at Värriötunturi fell in NE Finland. We found that summers have lengthened on average 5 days per decade from the late 1970s, profoundly due to increasing delays in the onset of winters. Moth abundance increased with increasing season length a year before. Most of the species occurrences expanded upwards in elevation. Moth communities in low elevation pine heath forest and middle elevation mountain birch forest have become inseparable. Yet, the flight periods have remained unchanged, probably due to unpredictable variation in proximate conditions (weather) that hinders life histories from selection. We conclude that climate change-driven changes in the season length have potential to affect species’ ranges and affect the structure of insect assemblages, which may contribute to alteration of ecosystem-level processes.

Developmental trap or demographic bonanza? Opposing consequences of earlier phenology in a changing climate for a multivoltine butterfly

A rapidly changing climate has the potential to interfere with the timing of environmental cues that ectothermic organisms rely on to initiate and regulate life history events. Short-lived ectotherms that exhibit plasticity in their life history could increase the number of generations per year under warming climate. If many individuals successfully complete an additional generation, the population experiences an additional opportunity to grow, and a warming climate could lead to a demographic bonanza. However, these plastic responses could become maladaptive in temperate regions, where a warmer climate could trigger a developmental pathway that cannot be completed within the growing season, referred to as a developmental trap. Here we incorporated detailed demography into commonly used photothermal models to evaluate these demographic consequences of phenological shifts due to a warming climate on the formerly widespread, multivoltine butterfly (Pieris oleracea). Using species-specific temperature- and photoperiod-sensitive vital rates, we estimated the number of generations per year and population growth rate over the set of climate conditions experienced during the past 38 years. We predicted that populations in the southern portion of its range have added a fourth generation in recent years, resulting in higher annual population growth rates (demographic bonanzas). We predicted that populations in the Northeast United States have experienced developmental traps, where increases in the thermal window initially caused mortality of the final generation and reduced growth rates. These populations may recover if more growing degree days are added to the year. Our framework for incorporating detailed demography into commonly used photothermal models demonstrates the importance of using both demography and phenology to predict consequences of phenological shifts.

Spatial Distribution of Butterflies in Accordance with Climate Change in the Korean Peninsula

The effects of climate change are becoming apparent in the biosphere. In the 20th century, South Korea experienced a 1.5 °C temperature increase due to rapid industrialization and urbanization. If the changes continue, it is predicted that approximately 15–37% of animal and plant species will be endangered after 2050. Because butterflies act as a good indicator for changes in the temperature, the distribution of butterflies can be used to determine their adaptability to climate patterns. Local meteorological data for the period 1938–2011 were used from the National Forest Research Institute of Korea. Local temperature data were additionally considered among the basic information, and the distribution patterns of butterflies were analyzed for both the southern and northern regions. Southern butterflies (with northern limit) tend to increase in number with significant correlation between the temperature and number of habitats (p < 0.000), while northern butterflies (with southern limit) show no statistical significance between the temperature and number of habitats, indicating their sensitivity to temperature change. This finding is in accordance with the conclusion that southern butterflies are more susceptible to climate change when adapting to local environments and expanding their original temperature range for survival, which leads to an increase in the numbers of their habitats.

Fine-grained climate velocities reveal vulnerability of protected areas to climate change

Climate change velocity is an increasingly used metric to assess the broad-scale climatic exposure and climate change induced risks to terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, the utility of this metric in conservation planning can be enhanced by determining the velocities of multiple climatic drivers in real protected area (PA) networks on ecologically relevant scales. Here we investigate the velocities of three key bioclimatic variables across a nation-wide reserve network, and the consequences of including fine-grained topoclimatic data in velocity assessments. Using 50-m resolution data describing present-day and future topoclimates, we assessed the velocities of growing degree days, the mean January temperature and climatic water balance in the Natura 2000 PA network in Finland. The high-velocity areas for the three climate variables differed drastically, indicating contrasting exposure risks in different PAs. The 50-m resolution climate data revealed more realistic estimates of climate velocities and more overlap between the present-day and future climate spaces in the PAs than the 1-km resolution data. Even so, the current temperature conditions were projected to disappear from almost all the studied PAs by the end of this century. Thus, in PA networks with only moderate topographic variation, far-reaching climate change induced ecological changes may be inevitable.

Contrasting effects of altitude on species groups with different traits in a non-fragmented montane temperate forest

Temperature has strong effects on species composition and traits. These effects can differ within and between species groups. Thermoregulation and mobility are traits which can be strongly affected by altitudinal distribution. Our aim was to investigate the influence of altitude on the species richness, abundance and composition of species groups with different trophic, thermoregulatory and mobility traits. Carabids (Coleoptera; Carabidae), hoverflies (Diptera: Syrphidae) and birds (Aves: Passeriformes) were counted in three altitudinal belts with a total elevation difference of 700 m (from 300 m to 1000 m a.s.l.) in the same habitat type (non-fragmented temperate montane mixed beech and fir forest). We found that endotherms and more mobile species (i.e. birds) had a smaller turnover than ectotherms (i.e. hoverflies) and less mobile species (i.e. carabids), from which we can predict that the former species will undergo a less extreme shift than the latter in global warming scenarios. Species turnover across the altitudinal gradient increased from birds to hoverflies to carabid beetles. The effect of altitude on phenology was different between the studied ectotherm species groups (carabids and hoverflies). Hoverflies experience a phenological delay of species richness and abundance at higher altitudes in spring, but not at the end of summer, which implies that hoverfly phenology is affected by a change in temperature, while carabid beetle abundance exhibited a delay in phenology in summer at higher altitudes. We suggest that species that are expected to be most affected by climate change, such as ectotherms and species with poor dispersal ability should be prioritised as the best indicators for monitoring and conservation management purposes.

Disentangling how climate change can affect an aquatic food web by combining multiple experimental approaches

Predicting the biological effects of climate change presents major challenges due to the interplay of potential biotic and abiotic mechanisms. Climate change can create unexpected outcomes by altering species interactions, and uncertainty over the ability of species to develop in situ tolerance or track environmental change further hampers meaningful predictions. As multiple climatic variables shift in concert, their potential interactions further complicate ecosystem responses. Despite awareness of these complexities, we still lack controlled experiments that manipulate multiple climatic stressors, species interactions, and prior exposure of species to future climatic conditions. Particularly studies that address how changes in water availability interact with other climatic stressors to affect aquatic ecosystems are still rare. Using aquatic insect communities of Neotropical tank bromeliads, we combined controlled manipulations of drought length and species interactions with a space-for-time transplant (lower elevations represent future climate) and a common garden approach. Manipulating drought length and experiment elevation revealed that adverse effects of drought were amplified at the warmer location, highlighting the potential of climatic stressors to synergistically affect communities. Manipulating the presence of omnivorous tipulid larvae showed that negative interactions from tipulids, presumably from predation, arose under drought, and were stronger at the warmer location, stressing the importance of species interactions in mediating community responses to climate change. The common garden treatments revealed that prior community exposure to potential future climatic conditions did not affect the outcome. In this powerful experiment, we demonstrated how complexities arise from the interplay of biotic and abiotic mechanisms of climate change. We stress that single species can steer ecological outcomes, and suggest that focusing on such disproportionately influential species may improve attempts at making meaningful predictions of climate change impacts on food webs.

Butterfly distribution along altitudinal gradients: temporal changes over a short time period

Mountain ecosystems are particularly sensitive to changes in climate and land cover, but at the same time, they can offer important refuges for species on the opposite of the more altered lowlands. To explore the potential role of mountain ecosystems in butterfly conservation and to assess the vulnerability of the alpine species, we analyzed the short-term changes (2006–2008 vs. 2012–2013) of butterflies’ distribution along altitudinal gradients in the NW Italian Alps. We sampled butterfly communities once a month (62 sampling stations, 3 seasonal replicates per year, from June to August) by semi-quantitative sampling techniques. The monitored gradient ranges from the montane to the alpine belt (600–2700 m a.s.l.) within three protected areas: Gran Paradiso National Park (LTER, Sitecode: LTER_EU_IT_109), Orsiera Rocciavrè Natural Park and Veglia Devero Natural Park. We investigated butterflies’ temporal changes in accordance with a hierarchical approach to assess potential relationships between species and community level. As a first step, we characterized each species in terms of habitat requirements, elevational range and temperature preferences and we compared plot occupancy and altitudinal range changes between time periods (2006–2008 vs. 2012–2013). Secondly, we focused on community level, analyzing species richness and community composition temporal changes. The species level analysis highlighted a general increase in mean occupancy level and significant changes at both altitudinal boundaries. Looking at the ecological groups, we observed an increase of generalist and highly mobile species at the expense of the specialist and less mobile ones. For the community level, we noticed a significant increase in species richness, in the community temperature index and a tendency towards homogenization within communities. Besides the short time period considered, butterflies species distribution and communities changed considerably. In light of these results, it is fundamental to continue monitoring activities to understand if we are facing transient changes or first signals of an imminent trend.

Linking warming effects on phenology, demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population

Phenological changes in response to climate change have been recorded in many taxa, but the population-level consequences of these changes are largely unknown. If phenological change influences demography, it may underpin the changes in range size and distribution that have been associated with climate change in many species. Over the last century, Icelandic black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa islandica) have increased 10-fold in numbers, and their breeding range has expanded throughout lowland Iceland, but the environmental and demographic drivers of this expansion remain unknown. Here, we explore the potential for climate-driven shifts in phenology to influence demography and range expansion. In warmer springs, Icelandic black-tailed godwits lay their clutches earlier, resulting in advances in hatching dates in those years. Early hatching is beneficial as population-wide tracking of marked individuals shows that chick recruitment to the adult population is greater for early hatched individuals. Throughout the last century, this population has expanded into progressively colder breeding areas in which hatch dates are later, but temperatures have increased throughout Iceland since the 1960s. Using these established relationships between temperature, hatching dates and recruitment, we show that these warming trends have the potential to have fueled substantial increases in recruitment throughout Iceland, and thus to have contributed to local population growth and expansion across the breeding range. The demographic consequences of temperature-mediated phenological changes, such as the advances in lay dates and increased recruitment associated with early hatching reported here, may therefore be key processes in driving population size and range changes in response to climate change.

Dispersal and adaptation strategies of the high mountain butterfly Boloria pales in the Romanian Carpathians

Background

Habitat quality is one main trigger for the persistence of butterflies. The effects of the influencing biotic and abiotic factors may be enhanced by the challenging conditions in high-alpine environments. To better our knowledge in this field, we performed a mark-release-recapture study with Boloria pales in the Southern Carpathians.

Methods

We analysed population structure, movement and foraging behaviour to investigate special adaptations to the alpine environment and to reveal differences between sexes. We compared these aspects in one sector with and one sector without grazing to address the effects of grazing intensity on habitat quality.

Results

We observed "soft" protandry, in which only a small number of males appeared before females, and an extended emergence of individuals over the observed flight period, dividing the population's age structure into three phases; both observations are considered adaptations to high mountain environments. Although both sexes were mostly sedentary, movement differences between them were obvious. Males flew larger distances than females and were more flight-active. This might explain the dimorphism in foraging behaviour: males preferred nectar sources of Asteraceae, females Caprifoliaceae. Transition from the grazed to the ungrazed sector was only observed for males and not for females, but the population density was higher and the flight distances of the individuals were significantly longer on the grazed sector compared with the ungrazed one.

Conclusion

Soft protandry, an extended emergence of the individuals and an adapted behavioural dimorphism between sexes render to represent a good adaptation of B. pales to the harsh environmental conditions of high mountain ecosystems. However, land-use intensity apparently has severe influence on population densities and movement behaviour. To protect B. pales and other high-alpine species from the negative consequences of overgrazing, areas without or just light grazing are needed.

Climatic Niche Model for Overwintering Monarch Butterflies in a Topographically Complex Region of California

We use climatic conditions that are associated with known monarch butterfly overwintering groves in California to build a Maxent model, and focus on the fine scale probability of overwintering grove occurrence in a topographically complex region of the state (Santa Barbara County). Grove locations are known from recent and historical surveys and a long-term citizen science database. The climatic niche model performs well, predicting that overwintering habitat is most likely to occur along the coast and at low elevations, as shown by empirical data. We then use climatic variables in conjunction with climate change scenarios to model the future location of overwintering habitat, and find a substantial shift in the predicted distribution. Under a plausible scenario, the probability of occurrence of overwintering habitat directly reflects elevation, with coastal regions having a reduced probability relative to today, and higher elevation sites increasing in probability. Under a more extreme scenario, high probability sites are only located along ridgelines and in mountaintop regions of the county. This predicted shift in distribution is likely to have management implications, as sites that currently lack monarchs may become critical to conservation in the future. Our results suggest that estimating the size of the western overwintering population in the future will be problematic, unless annual counts compensate for a shift in the distribution and a potential change in the number and location of occupied sites.

Aspects, Including Pitfalls, of Temporal Sampling of Flying Insects, with Special Reference to Aphids

Since the advent and widespread use of high-resolution molecular markers in the late 1970s, it is now well established that natural populations of insects are not necessarily homogeneous genetically and show variations at different spatial scales due to a variety of reasons, including hybridization/introgression events. In a similar vein, populations of insects are not necessarily homogenous in time, either over the course of seasons or even within a single season. This of course has profound consequences for surveys examining, for whatever reason/s, the temporal population patterns of insects, especially flying insects as mostly discussed here. In the present article, the topics covered include climate and climate change; changes in ecological niches due to changes in available hosts, i.e., essentially, adaptation events; hybridization influencing behaviour⁻host shifts; infection by pathogens and parasites/parasitoids; habituation to light, sound and pheromone lures; chromosomal/genetic changes affecting physiology and behaviour; and insecticide resistance. If such phenomena-i.e., aspects and pitfalls-are not considered during spatio-temporal study programmes, which is even more true in the light of the recent discovery of morphologically similar/identical cryptic species, then the conclusions drawn in terms of the efforts to combat pest insects or conserve rare and endangered species may be in error and hence end in failure.

Fine nanostructural variation in the wing pattern of a moth Chiasmia eleonora Cramer (1780)

Butterflies and moths possess diverse patterns on their wings. Butterflies employ miscellaneous colour in the wings whereas moths use a combination of dull colours like white, grey, brown and black for the patterning of their wings. The exception is some of the toxic diurnal moths which possess bright wing colouration. Moths possess an obscure pattern in the dorsal part of the wings which may be a line, zigzag or swirl. Such patterns help in camouflage during resting period. Thus, the dorsal wing pattern of the moth is used for both intra- as well as inter-specific signal communication. Chiasmia eleonora is a nocturnal moth of greyish black colouration. The dorsal hindwing possesses yellow and black colour patches. A whitecoloured oblique line crosses both left and right fore- and hindwings to form a V-shaped pattern across the dorsal wing. This V-shaped pattern possesses a UV signal. Closer to the body, the colour appears darker, which fades towards the margin. The fine nanostructural variation is observed throughout the wings. This study elucidates the wing pattern of the geometrid moth C. eleonora using high-resolution microscopy techniques that has not been described in previous studies.