Large-scale geographical variation confirms that climate change causes birds to lay earlier

Responses in the breeding parameters of the collared flycatcher to the changing climate

Global climate change involves various aspects of climate, including precipitation changes and declining surface wind speeds, but studies investigating biological responses have often focused on the impacts of rising temperatures. Additionally, related long-term studies on bird reproduction tend to concentrate on breeding onset, even though other aspects of breeding could also be sensitive to the diverse weather aspects. This study aimed to explore how multiple aspects of breeding (breeding onset, hatching delay, breeding season length, clutch size, fledgling number) were associated with different weather components. We used an almost four-decade-long dataset to investigate the various aspects of breeding parameters of a collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis) population in the Carpathian Basin. Analyses revealed some considerable associations, for example, breeding seasons lengthened with the amount of daily precipitation, and clutch size increased with the number of cool days. Parallel and opposing changes in the correlated pairs of breeding and weather parameters were also observed. The phenological mismatch between prey availability and breeding time slightly increased, and fledgling number strongly decreased with increasing mistiming. Our results highlighted the intricate interplay between climate change and the reproductive patterns of migratory birds, emphasizing the need for a holistic approach. The results also underscored the potential threats posed by climate change to bird populations and the importance of adaptive responses to changing environmental conditions.

INTERACTIVE EFFECTS OF INCREASED NESTBOX TEMPERATURE AND VITAMIN E ON NESTLING GROWTH ARE ATTENUATED BY PLASTICITY IN FEMALE INCUBATION EFFORT

In recent years, temperatures have increased globally, and nestlings of many bird species are likely regularly exposed to increased temperatures both pre- and postnatally. Even small increases in nest temperature during incubation affect offspring growth and survival in a variety of species, one cause of which is thought to be increased production of prooxidants in embryos and nestlings. Defences marshalled in response to this oxidative stress could, in turn, result in trade-offs that lead to reduced survival or growth. If so, any downstream negative effects on nestlings of increased ambient temperatures during incubation could be counteracted by increasing their antioxidant intake. We predicted, therefore, that dietary supplements of an antioxidant would reduce or eliminate any detrimental effects on nestling growth and survival of experimentally increased nest temperature during the incubation period. We employed a split-brood design in which we increased nest temperature of entire clutches and, after hatching, provided dietary supplements of the antioxidant vitamin E to half of the nestlings within broods. We also recorded female incubation and provisioning behaviour to control for the possibility that heating nests might also influence maternal behaviour. There was a significant interaction between nestbox heating treatment and vitamin E treatment in their effect on nestling mass, a trait that is positively correlated with survival and future reproductive success in the study population. Vitamin E supplementation promoted increased nestling mass in heated nests, whereas it had the opposite effect in control nests, but these effects were weak. Heating significantly affected female incubation behaviour, with females in heated nestboxes investing less in incubation than those in unheated boxes. These results suggest that within at least some range of expected increased ambient temperatures during the 21st century, effects of climate change on nestling bird development can be mitigated by adjustments in female incubation behaviour.

Adaptation to climate change through dispersal and inherited timing in an avian migrant

Many organisms fail to adjust their phenology sufficiently to climate change. Studies have concentrated on adaptive responses within localities, but little is known about how latitudinal dispersal enhances evolutionary potential. Rapid adaptation is expected if dispersers from lower latitudes have improved synchrony to northern conditions, thereby gain fitness and introduce genotypes on which selection acts. Here we provide experimental evidence that dispersal in an avian migrant enables rapid evolutionary adaptation. We translocated Dutch female pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) and eggs to Sweden, where breeding phenology is ~15 days later. Translocated females bred earlier, and their fitness was 2.5 times higher than local Swedish flycatchers. We show that between-population variation in timing traits is highly heritable, and hence immigration of southern genotypes promotes the necessary evolutionary response. We conclude that studies on adaptation to large-scale environmental change should not just focus on plasticity and evolution based on standing genetic variation but should also include phenotype-habitat matching through dispersal as a viable route to adjust.

Ecological and evolutionary consequences of selective interspecific information use

Recent work has shown that animals frequently use social information from individuals of their own species as well as from other species; however, the ecological and evolutionary consequences of this social information use remain poorly understood. Additionally, information users may be selective in their social information use, deciding from whom and how to use information, but this has been overlooked in an interspecific context. In particular, the intentional decision to reject a behaviour observed via social information has received less attention, although recent work has indicated its presence in various taxa. Based on existing literature, we explore in which circumstances selective interspecific information use may lead to different ecological and coevolutionary outcomes between two species, such as explaining observed co-occurrences of putative competitors. The initial ecological differences and the balance between the costs of competition and the benefits of social information use potentially determine whether selection may lead to trait divergence, convergence or coevolutionary arms race between two species. We propose that selective social information use, including adoption and rejection of behaviours, may have far-reaching fitness consequences, potentially leading to community-level eco-evolutionary outcomes. We argue that these consequences of selective interspecific information use may be much more widespread than has thus far been considered.

Delayed egg-laying in Red-backed Shrike Lanius collurio in relation to increased rainfall in east-central Poland

Climate change has affected the breeding parameters of many animal species. In birds, most studies have focused on the effects of temperature on clutch phenology and clutch size. The long-term influence of other weather factors, including rainfall, on breeding parameters have been analysed much less often. Based on a 23-year dataset and 308 broods, we documented shifts in the timing of breeding, clutch size and mean egg volume in a long-distance migrant, the Red-backed Shrike Lanius collurio, from a central European population. We found a 5-day shift towards delayed breeding, but no differences in brood size or egg volume during those 23 years. The GLM analysis showed that the mean May temperature had a positive influence on the clutch initiation date, whereas the number of days with rain delayed laying. During the period 1999-2021, there was no change in the mean May temperature, but total precipitation and the number of days with rain in May increased. Thus, delayed nesting in this population was probably due to the increase in rainfall during this period. Our results provide a rare example of delayed nesting in birds in recent years. Predicted changes in the climate make it difficult to assess the long-term impact of global warming on the viability of Red-backed Shrike populations in east-central Poland.

Temperature synchronizes temporal variation in laying dates across European hole-nesting passerines

Identifying the environmental drivers of variation in fitness-related traits is a central objective in ecology and evolutionary biology. Temporal fluctuations of these environmental drivers are often synchronized at large spatial scales. Yet, whether synchronous environmental conditions can generate spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values (i.e., correlated temporal trait fluctuations across populations) is poorly understood. Using data from long-term monitored populations of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus, n = 31), great tits (Parus major, n = 35), and pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca, n = 20) across Europe, we assessed the influence of two local climatic variables (mean temperature and mean precipitation in February-May) on spatial synchrony in three fitness-related traits: laying date, clutch size, and fledgling number. We found a high degree of spatial synchrony in laying date but a lower degree in clutch size and fledgling number for each species. Temperature strongly influenced spatial synchrony in laying date for resident blue tits and great tits but not for migratory pied flycatchers. This is a relevant finding in the context of environmental impacts on populations because spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values among populations may influence fluctuations in vital rates or population abundances. If environmentally induced spatial synchrony in fitness-related traits increases the spatial synchrony in vital rates or population abundances, this will ultimately increase the risk of extinction for populations and species. Assessing how environmental conditions influence spatiotemporal variation in trait values improves our mechanistic understanding of environmental impacts on populations.

No Apparent Immediate Reproductive Costs of Overlapping Breeding and Moult in a Mediterranean Great Tit Population

Some phenological events in birds, such as breeding and moulting, are being affected by rising temperatures due to global warming, and many species have undergone temporary changes in these energetically demanding phases that are often separated in time. This has led to an increased overlap between breeding and moulting in some populations. This overlap causes conflicts in resource allocation and may impose fitness costs that could affect immediate reproductive performance. We tested whether this occurs in a great tit (Parus major) population in eastern Spain. In 71% of 390 pairs, in which both parents were captured during the period of overlap between moulting and breeding, at least one parent was moulting when feeding the chicks of its second brood. Later breeders were more likely to overlap breeding and moulting, and when both parents overlapped, clutch size was smaller, fewer eggs hatched and fewer fledglings in poorer body condition were produced. Some results were intermediate when only one parent moulted. However, all these differences between moulting and non-moulting pairs disappeared when the seasonal trend in reproductive parameters was taken into account, as moulting birds bred later and reproductive performance decreased seasonally. Therefore, the overlap of breeding and moulting does not impose additional reproductive costs in this population.

Annual variation in waterbird clutch initiation date in relation to spring thaw in Arctic Russia

To test for the degree of species-specific variation in clutch initiation date in relation to spring thaw, we recorded first egg dates in 1433 nests of seven large bodied long-distance migratory waterbird species breeding on Ayopechan Island in the Chaun Delta, Chukotka, in the Russian Arctic during 2002-2020. Pacific Loon Gavia pacifica, Sandhill Crane Grus canadensis and Glaucous Gull Larus hyperboreus all adjusted timing of clutch initiation completely to annual variation in first frost-free dates. First egg dates of Spectacled Eider Somateria fischeri also significantly advanced in warmer springs, but the rate of change was significantly less than unity, implying a reduced capacity to accommodate change in vernal thaw that may not be able to keep up with greater change in the future. Long-tailed Duck Clangula hyemalis and Vega Gull Larus vegae showed a tendency for earlier first egg dates in years with earlier first frost-free date, but for both species, the relationship failed to reach statistical significance. Bewick's Swan Cygnus columbianus showed almost no change in mean first egg date across the observed variation in first frost-free dates. Based on these data, we suggest that while all seven species showed signs of plasticity in their timing of onset of breeding, Pacific Loon, Sandhill Crane and Glaucous Gull showed greater adaptability to adjust the timing of their breeding season to recent variation in spring thaw than the other four species studied here over this period.

Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less sensitive to climatic variation

The phenology of many species shows strong sensitivity to climate change; however, with few large scale intra-specific studies it is unclear how such sensitivity varies over a species' range. We document large intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity to temperature using laying date information from 67 populations of two co-familial European songbirds, the great tit (Parus major) and blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus), covering a large part of their breeding range. Populations inhabiting deciduous habitats showed stronger phenological sensitivity than those in evergreen and mixed habitats. However, populations with higher sensitivity tended to have experienced less rapid change in climate over the past decades, such that populations with high phenological sensitivity will not necessarily exhibit the strongest phenological advancement. Our results show that to effectively assess the impact of climate change on phenology across a species' range it will be necessary to account for intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity, climate change exposure, and the ecological characteristics of a population.

A specialist bee and its host plants experience phenological shifts at different rates in response to climate change

Changes in climate can alter the phenology of organisms, potentially decoupling partners within mutualisms. Previous studies have shown that plant and pollinator phenologies are shifting over time, but these shifts have primarily been documented for generalists and within small geographic regions, and the specific climatic cues regulating these shifts are not well-understood. We examined phenological shifts in a specialist pollinator and its host plant species over a 117-year study period using a digitized dataset of over 4000 unique collection records. We assess how climatic cues regulate these organisms' phenologies using PRISM weather data associated with each record. We tested the hypothesis that rates of phenological change would be greater at northern latitudes. We found that the phenology of the specialist bee pollinator Habropoda laboriosa is changing over time, but at different rates across its range. Specifically, phenology is advancing to a greater degree in more northern populations, with increasing phenological advances of 0.04 days/year with each degree of latitude, and with a delay in phenology in more southern populations. In contrast, only one species in the host plant genus Vaccinium is experiencing phenological change over time. For this plant, rates of change are also variable across latitudes, but in a pattern opposite that of the bee; while phenology is advancing across its range, rates of advance are highest in more southern populations, with decreasing phenological advances of 0.01 days/year with each degree of latitude. The phenologies of both the bee and three of four Vaccinium spp. were regulated primarily by spring temperature, with phenologies overall advancing with increasing temperature, and with the strongest responses shown by the bee in northern populations. Our study provides partial support for the hypothesis that phenologies advance most at northern latitudes, but demonstrates that pollinators and plants do not adhere similarly to this prediction. Additionally, we illustrate the potential for phenological mismatch between a specialist pollinator and its host plants by showing that plants and pollinators are advancing their phenologies at different rates across space and time and with differing responses to changing climatic cues.

An observational analysis of Canada Jay (Perisoreus canadensis) foraging and caching ecology in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska, USA

Arctic and subarctic wildlife are among the most vulnerable species to climate change. Canada Jays (Perisoreus canadensis (Linnaeus, 1776)) are generalist residents of northern boreal forests and scatter-hoard food to insulate against food scarcity during winter. Unlike most scatter-hoarders, however, Canada Jays primarily cache perishable food, rendering their caches more susceptible to climate change induced degradation and loss. Here we use a mostly noninvasive approach to document Canada Jay foraging ecology among a population in interior Alaska, USA, including the types of food acquired, foraging and caching rates, and cache longevity and loss. We also tested for associations between foraging and caching rates with reproductive metrics to assess possible relationships among food and productivity. We found that Canada Jays have a varied diet that changed seasonally, and responded to a record-setting warm spring by directing foraging efforts away from cache recovery and towards the emergence of fresh food. We did not find evidence for relationships between foraging and caching rate with reproductive output, possibly owing to small sample sizes. We found that caches were recovered quickly (<4 weeks) and frequently lost to conspecific and heterospecific competitors. Our study suggests that Canada Jays may be better poised to respond to changes in cache integrity and food availability than has been previously recognized.

Connecting the data landscape of long-term ecological studies: The SPI-Birds data hub

The integration and synthesis of the data in different areas of science is drastically slowed and hindered by a lack of standards and networking programmes. Long-term studies of individually marked animals are not an exception. These studies are especially important as instrumental for understanding evolutionary and ecological processes in the wild. Furthermore, their number and global distribution provides a unique opportunity to assess the generality of patterns and to address broad-scale global issues (e.g. climate change). To solve data integration issues and enable a new scale of ecological and evolutionary research based on long-term studies of birds, we have created the SPI-Birds Network and Database (www.spibirds.org)-a large-scale initiative that connects data from, and researchers working on, studies of wild populations of individually recognizable (usually ringed) birds. Within year and a half since the establishment, SPI-Birds has recruited over 120 members, and currently hosts data on almost 1.5 million individual birds collected in 80 populations over 2,000 cumulative years, and counting. SPI-Birds acts as a data hub and a catalogue of studied populations. It prevents data loss, secures easy data finding, use and integration and thus facilitates collaboration and synthesis. We provide community-derived data and meta-data standards and improve data integrity guided by the principles of Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR), and aligned with the existing metadata languages (e.g. ecological meta-data language). The encouraging community involvement stems from SPI-Bird's decentralized approach: research groups retain full control over data use and their way of data management, while SPI-Birds creates tailored pipelines to convert each unique data format into a standard format. We outline the lessons learned, so that other communities (e.g. those working on other taxa) can adapt our successful model. Creating community-specific hubs (such as ours, COMADRE for animal demography, etc.) will aid much-needed large-scale ecological data integration.

Individual Nest Site Preferences Do Not Explain Upslope Population Shifts of a Secondary Cavity-Nesting Species

Simple Summary

Environmental changes such as climate change have affected wildlife species behavior and geographic ranges globally. We analyzed nesting data of western bluebirds to determine whether the link between geographic range shifts of a western bluebird population in New Mexico, USA is due to individual adaptations or changes occurring at a larger scale. We looked at location data of marked and recaptured nestlings and adults that nested within our study area. We found that individual choices have no impact on the geographic range shift being observed in this population, suggesting that population-level processes, such as emigration and immigration, may be the main cause of these shifts.

Abstract

Geographic ranges of plants and animals are shifting due to environmental change. While some species are shifting towards the poles and upslope in elevation, the processes leading to these patterns are not well known. We analyzed 22 years of western bluebird (Sialia mexicana) data from a large nest box network in northern New Mexico at elevations between 1860 m and 2750 m. This population has shifted to higher elevations over time, but whether this is due to changes in nesting behavior and preference for higher elevation within the population or driven by immigration is unclear. We banded adults and nestlings from nest boxes and examined nesting location and elevation for individual birds captured two or more times. Most recaptured birds nested at the same nest boxes in subsequent years, and the number of birds that moved upslope did not significantly differ from the number that moved downslope. Fledglings moved greater distances and elevations than adults, but these movements were not upslope specific. Female fledglings showed greater changes in elevation and distance compared to male fledglings, but again, movements were not consistently upslope. The upslope shift in this population may be due to birds immigrating into the population and not from changes in individual nesting behavior.

Fluctuating selection driven by global and local climatic conditions leads to stasis in breeding time in a migratory bird

The origin of natural selection is linked to environmental heterogeneity, which influences variation in relative fitness among phenotypes. However, individuals in wild populations are exposed to a plethora of biotic and abiotic environmental factors. Surprisingly, the relative influence of multiple environmental conditions on the relative fitness of phenotypes has rarely been tested in wild populations. Identifying the main selection agent(s) is crucial when the target phenotype is tightly linked to reproduction and when temporal variation in selection is expected to affect evolutionary responses. By using individual-based data from a 29-year study of a short-lived migratory songbird, the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca), we studied the relative influence of 28 temperature- and precipitation-based factors at local and global scales on selection on breeding time (egg laying) at the phenotypic level. Selection, estimated using the number of recruits as a proxy for fitness, penalized late breeders. Minimum temperatures in April and May were the environmental drivers that best explained selection on laying date. In particular, there was negative directional selection on laying date mediated by minimum temperature in April, being strongest in cold years. In addition, nonlinear selection on laying date was influenced by minimum temperatures in May, with selection on laying date changing from null to negative as the breeding season progressed. The intensity of selection on late breeders increased when minimum temperatures in May were highest. Our results illustrate the complex influence of environmental factors on selection on laying date in wild bird populations. Despite minimum temperature in April being the only variable that changed over time, its increase did not induce a shift in laying date in the population. In this songbird population, stabilizing selection has led to a three-decade stasis in breeding time. We suggest that variation in the effects of multiple climatic variables on selection may constrain phenotypic change.

The thermal environment as a moderator of social evolution

Animal sociality plays a crucial organisational role in evolution. As a result, understanding the factors that promote the emergence, maintenance, and diversification of animal societies is of great interest to biologists. Climate is among the foremost ecological factors implicated in evolutionary transitions in social organisation, but we are only beginning to unravel the possible mechanisms and specific climatic variables that underlie these associations. Ambient temperature is a key abiotic factor shaping the spatio-temporal distribution of individuals and has a particularly strong influence on behaviour. Whether such effects play a broader role in social evolution remains to be seen. In this review, we develop a conceptual framework for understanding how thermal effects integrate into pathways that mediate the opportunities, nature, and context of social interactions. We then implement this framework to discuss the capacity for temperature to initiate organisational changes across three broad categories of social evolution: group formation, group maintenance, and group elaboration. For each category, we focus on pivotal traits likely to have underpinned key social transitions and explore the potential for temperature to affect changes in these traits by leveraging empirical examples from the literature on thermal and behavioural ecology. Finally, we discuss research directions that should be prioritised to understand the potentially constructive and/or destructive effects of future warming on the origins, maintenance, and diversification of animal societies.

The effects of four decades of climate change on the breeding ecology of an avian sentinel species across a 1,500-km latitudinal gradient are stronger at high latitudes

Global warming affects breeding phenology of birds differentially with latitude, but there is contrasting evidence about how the changing climate influences the breeding of migrating songbirds at their northern breeding range. We investigate the effect of climate warming on breeding time and breeding success of European pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca in Sweden during a period of 36 years using nest reports from bird ringing. To account for the latitudinal variation, we divided Sweden into three latitudinal bands (northern, intermediate, and southern). We applied a sliding window approach to find the most influential period and environment characteristics (temperature, vegetation greenness, and precipitation), using linear mixed models and model averaging. Our results show a long-term advancement of breeding time related to increasing spring temperature and vegetation greenness during a period before hatching. Northern breeders revealed a larger advancement over the years (8.3 days) compared with southern breeders (3.6 days). We observed a relatively stronger effect of temperature and greenness on breeding time in the north. Furthermore, northern birds showed an increase in breeding success over time, while birds breeding at southern and intermediate latitudes showed reduced breeding success in years with higher prehatching temperatures. Our findings with stronger environment effects on breeding time advancement in the north suggest that pied flycatchers are more responsive to weather cues at higher latitudes. Breeding time adjustment and, potentially, low competition help explain the higher long-term success observed in the north. Reduced breeding success at more southerly latitudes suggests an inability to match breeding time to very early and warm springs, a fate that with continued climate change could also be expected for pied flycatchers and other long-distance migrants at their very northern breeding range.

Urban environment alter the timing of progression of testicular recrudescence in tree sparrow (Passer montanus)

Urbanization is a rapidly growing phenomenon that affects wildlife. Laboratory studies show the effects of night light on the physiology of the organisms. Limited studies have been conducted on birds in their natural habitat. Here, we studied the effects of the urban environment on reproduction-linked phenomenon and molecules involved in the regulation of seasonal breeding. Birds (N=5/time/site) were procured from urban and rural sites at specific times, i.e., in March (stimulatory phase), June (reproductive phase), September (refractory phase), and December (sensitive phase) of 2018. Immediately after procurement, birds were brought to the laboratory. Bodyweight, bill color, molt in body feathers, and testes size were recorded. The next day, all the birds were sacrificed in the middle of the day. Blood was collected and serum was used for ELISA of corticosterone, triiodothyronine (T3), and thyroxine (T4). mRNA levels of thyroid-stimulating hormone-β (Tshβ), type 2 deiodinase (Dio2), type 3 deiodinase (Dio3), gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRh), and gonadotropin inhibitory hormone (GnIh) were measured in hypothalamic tissue. Urban birds showed higher levels of corticosterone during the stimulatory phase. There was a delay in the initiation of testicular growth in urban birds and it was supported by reduced levels of T3 in blood plasma and relatively lower transcription of Dio2 and GnRH mRNA in urban birds. Our findings suggest that the urban environment delays the timing of reproduction in birds and could be the consequence of local environmental conditions.

Exploring the drivers of variation in trophic mismatches: A systematic review of long-term avian studies

Many organisms reproduce in seasonal environments, where selection on timing of reproduction is particularly strong as consumers need to synchronize reproduction with the peaked occurrence of their food. When a consumer species changes its phenology at a slower rate than its resources, this may induce a trophic mismatch, that is, offspring growing up after the peak in food availability, potentially leading to reductions in growth and survival. However, there is large variation in the degree of trophic mismatches as well as in its effects on reproductive output.Here, we explore the potential causes for variation in the strength of trophic mismatches in published studies of birds. Specifically, we ask whether the changes in the degree of mismatch that have occurred over time can be explained by a bird's (a) breeding latitude, (b) migration distance, and/or (c) life-history traits.We found that none of these three factors explain changes in the degree of mismatch over time. Nevertheless, food phenology did advance faster at more northerly latitudes, while shifts in bird phenology did not show a trend with latitude.We argue that the lack of support in our results is attributable to the large variation in the metrics used to describe timing of food availability. We propose a pathway to improve the quantification of trophic mismatches, guided by a more rigorous understanding of links between consumers and their resources.

Climate warming induced a stretch of the breeding season and an increase of second clutches in a passerine breeding at its altitudinal limits

The increase in the average air temperature due to global warming has produced an early onset of the reproduction in many migratory birds of the Paleartic region. According to the “mismatch hypothesis” this response can lead to a decrease in the breeding output when the conditions that trigger the departure from the wintering areas do not match the availability of food resources in the breeding ground. We used 653 brooding events registered during the period 1991–2013 to investigate the link between climatic variables and individual breeding performance of a partially migratory passerine, the Rock Sparrow Petronia petronia, breeding at the altitude limit of its distribution. The laying date (LD) of the earliest first clutch was associated with local spring (minimum) temperatures but did not show a significant trend during the period considered. The LD of the latest first clutch had a positive and statistically significant trend, unrelated to local covariates and resulting in a longer breeding season (∼1.5 days/year). A longer breeding season allowed birds to produce more second clutches, which proportion increased from 0.14 to 0.25. The average breeding success was also positively correlated with the average temperature in July and with the duration of the breeding season. Contrary to expectations, the most important climate-dependent effect was a stretch of the breeding season due to a significant increase of the LD of the latest first-clutches rather than an earlier breeding onset. We show how climate changes act on bird populations through multiple paths and stress the need to assess the link between climatic variables and several aspects of the breeding cycle.

High temperature attenuates testicular responses in tree sparrow (Passer montanus)

The majority of birds use environmental cues to time their reproduction. Photoperiod is the most dominant cue, but other environmental factors may play a critical role in successful reproduction. Some previous studies show the effect of temperature on the timing of nest building and reproduction. Here we tested if the temperature can modulate the reproductive responses of tree sparrows. Three experiments were performed on adult male birds. In experiment 1, birds (n = 5/group) were exposed to either high (30 ± 2 °C) or low temperature (20 ± 2 °C). Change in body mass, bill color, and testes volume was recorded every 30 days. In experiment 2, a similar temperature protocol was followed, but birds were euthanized after 30 days. In experiment 3, birds were first exposed to SD (8L:16D) for 30 days but either with high (30 ± 2 °C) or low temperature (20 ± 2 °C). After 30 days, birds were exposed to LD (14L:10D), but half of the high-temperature birds were moved to low temperature, and half of the low-temperature birds were moved to high temperature. After 30 days, all birds were euthanized. In experiment 2 and 3 immediately after euthanization birds, blood samples were collected, serum was used for hormone assay. mRNA levels of thyroid-stimulating hormone-β (Tshβ), type 2 deiodinase (Dio2), type 3 deiodinase (Dio3), gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) and gonadotropin inhibitory hormone (GnIH) were measured in hypothalamic tissue. Results from experiment 1 show that high temperature attenuates the testicular responses and accelerates the timing of regression. Experiment 2 shows that on day 30, testicular responses are similar, but reproductive genes express differentially in two groups. Experiment 3 shows that exposure to high temperatures during the photosensitive stage affects the testicular response at the poststimulatory state. Together, these findings suggest that high temperature modulates reproductive responses of tree sparrow.

Strengthening the evidence base for temperature-mediated phenological asynchrony and its impacts

Climate warming has caused the seasonal timing of many components of ecological food chains to advance. In the context of trophic interactions, the match-mismatch hypothesis postulates that differential shifts can lead to phenological asynchrony with negative impacts for consumers. However, at present there has been no consistent analysis of the links between temperature change, phenological asynchrony and individual-to-population-level impacts across taxa, trophic levels and biomes at a global scale. Here, we propose five criteria that all need to be met to demonstrate that temperature-mediated trophic asynchrony poses a growing risk to consumers. We conduct a literature review of 109 papers studying 129 taxa, and find that all five criteria are assessed for only two taxa, with the majority of taxa only having one or two criteria assessed. Crucially, nearly every study was conducted in Europe or North America, and most studies were on terrestrial secondary consumers. We thus lack a robust evidence base from which to draw general conclusions about the risk that climate-mediated trophic asynchrony may pose to populations worldwide.

Density-Dependent Adaptive Topography in a Small Passerine Bird, the Collared Flycatcher

AbstractAdaptive topography is a central concept in evolutionary biology, describing how the mean fitness of a population changes with gene frequencies or mean phenotypes. We use expected population size as a quantity to be maximized by natural selection to show that selection on pairwise combinations of reproductive traits of collared flycatchers caused by fluctuations in population size generated an adaptive topography with distinct peaks often located at intermediate phenotypes. This occurred because r- and K-selection made phenotypes favored at small densities different from those with higher fitness at population sizes close to the carrying capacity K. Fitness decreased rapidly with a delay in the timing of egg laying, with a density-dependent effect especially occurring among early-laying females. The number of fledglings maximizing fitness was larger at small population sizes than when close to K. Finally, there was directional selection for large fledglings independent of population size. We suggest that these patterns can be explained by increased competition for some limiting resources or access to favorable nest sites at high population densities. Thus, r- and K-selection based on expected population size as an evolutionary maximization criterion may influence life-history evolution and constrain the selective responses to changes in the environment.

Warmer April Temperatures on Breeding Grounds Promote Earlier Nesting in a Long-Distance Migratory Bird, the Prothonotary Warbler

Global climate change and warming are altering hemispheric and local weather patterns. Altered weather patterns have great potential to affect the phenology of life history events, such as the initiation of breeding in organisms that reproduce seasonally. Long-distance migratory birds may be particularly challenged by changes in local weather on breeding grounds because they arrive from distant locations and must commence breeding when conditions are appropriate. Here we explore the effects of local temperature on first egg dates and annual productivity in a long-distance Neotropical migratory songbird, the prothonotary warbler Protonotaria citrea. We present results from a 20-year (1994 to 2013) study documenting the detailed nesting activities of a color-marked population (average of 155 individual females each year) of warblers in southern Illinois, United States. The warblers typically arrive in April and start breeding in late April and May in our study system. We tested for an effect of local average April daily temperature and female age on first egg dates, total number of offspring produced per female, and the probability of fledging two broods. We found that warmer April temperatures promoted earlier first egg dates and higher average annual productivity in the warblers. On average, older females had earlier first egg dates than 1-year-old females, but both age groups responded similarly to local April temperatures. The reproductive gains associated with earlier first egg dates in warmer years stemmed from an increased probability of successfully fledging two broods, suggesting that earlier first egg dates do not currently create a mismatch with food (insect) resources. Earliest arrival dates of warblers to the region of our study system were not affected by local April temperatures, suggesting that females vary their first egg date based on conditions they experience/assess after their arrival. Whereas these birds currently adjust the timing of their breeding and actually produce more offspring in warmer years, continued global warming may eventually upset the current balance between arrival dates, food resources, and the commencement of nesting.

Applications of machine learning in behavioral ecology: Quantifying avian incubation behavior and nest conditions in relation to environmental temperature

In the age of machine learning, building programs that take advantage of the speed and specificity of algorithm development can greatly aid efforts to quantify and interpret changes in animal behavior in response to abiotic environmental factors, like temperature. For both endotherms and ectotherms, temperature can affect everything from daily energy budgets to nesting behaviors. For instance, in birds environmental temperature plays a key role in shaping parental incubation behavior and temperatures experienced by embryos. Recent research indicates that temperatures experienced by embryos affect viability and are important in shaping fitness-related traits in young birds, sparking renewed interest in relationships among environmental factors, parental incubation behavior, and incubation temperature. Incubation behavior of birds can be monitored non-invasively by placing thermal probes into the nest and analyzing temperature fluctuations that occur as parents attend and leave the nest (on- and off-bouts, respectively). When other measures of temperature (e.g., ambient air or operative temperature) are collected simultaneously with incubation temperature it is possible to compare shifts in behavior with environmental changes. To improve analysis of incubation behavior using these large thermal data sets we developed a program, NestIQ, that uses machine learning to guide parameter optimization allowing it to track the behavior of diverse species. NestIQ's algorithm was tested using six species incubating in lab or field scenarios, that exhibit unique incubation patterns. This stand-alone and open source software is operated through a graphical user interface (i.e., no user programming is required) that provides important behavioral and thermal output statistics. Further, measures of environmental temperature can be imported alongside nest temperature into the program, which then reports various attributes of environmental temperature during shifts in parental behavior. This program will improve the ability of avian ecologists to interpret a critical parental care behavior that can be used across diverse incubation scenarios and species. Although specifically designed for quantifying avian incubation, NestIQ has the potential for broader applications, including basking and nesting behaviors of non-avian reptiles in relation to ambient temperature.

Changes in spring arrival dates of Central European bird species over the past 100 years

Over the past decades, spring temperatures have increased in temperate regions, which resulted in birds arriving earlier in spring. Nonetheless, the timing of some species’ spring migration relies on endogenous rhythms that are not affected by climate change. In this study, we analysed changes in the spring arrival dates of 36 bird species over two periods in 22 towns and villages in Southeast Hungary and West Romania. The first period covered the national spring migration counts between 1894 and 1926, while the second period took place between 2005 and 2019 and is based on our recent observation data. Our results show, that the average spring arrival dates of most long-distance migrant species have not changed significantly over the past 100 years. In contrast, in cases of medium and short-distance migrants, most species arrive earlier recently than in the past. This may be caused by the fact, that the migration habit of long-distance migrants is characterized by strong genetic determinants, so they can not react as quickly to the warmer spring weather in Europe as the medium and short-distance migrants. However, in cases of some long-distance migrants, the timing of spring migration changed due to the drying of wintering grounds.

Comparing two measures of phenological synchrony in a predator-prey interaction: Simpler works better

Global climate change has sparked a vast research effort into the demographic and evolutionary consequences of mismatches between consumer and resource phenology. Many studies have used the difference in peak dates to quantify phenological synchrony (match in dates, MD), but this approach has been suggested to be inconclusive, since it does not incorporate the temporal overlap between the phenological distributions (match in overlap, MO). We used 24 years of detailed data on the phenology of a predator-prey system, the great tit (Parus major) and the main food for its nestlings, caterpillars, to estimate MD and MO at the population and brood levels. We compared the performance of both metrics on two key demographic parameters: offspring recruitment probability and selection on the timing of reproduction. Although MD and MO correlated quadratically as expected, MD was a better predictor for both offspring recruitment and selection on timing than MO. We argue-and verify through simulations-that this is because quantifying MO has to be based on nontrivial, difficult-to-verify assumptions that likely render MO too inaccurate as a proxy for food availability in practice. Our results have important implications for the allocation of research efforts in long-term population studies in highly seasonal environments.

Effects of two centuries of global environmental variation on phenology and physiology of Arabidopsis thaliana

Intraspecific trait variation is caused by genetic and plastic responses to environment. This intraspecific diversity is captured in immense natural history collections, giving us a window into trait variation across continents and through centuries of environmental shifts. Here we tested if hypotheses based on life history and the leaf economics spectrum explain intraspecific trait changes across global spatiotemporal environmental gradients. We measured phenotypes on a 216-year time series of Arabidopsis thaliana accessions from across its native range and applied spatially varying coefficient models to quantify region-specific trends in trait coordination and trait responses to climate gradients. All traits exhibited significant change across space or through time. For example, δ¹⁵ N decreased over time across much of the range and leaf C:N increased, consistent with predictions based on anthropogenic changes in land use and atmosphere. Plants were collected later in the growing season in more recent years in many regions, possibly because populations shifted toward more spring germination and summer flowering as opposed to fall germination and spring flowering. When climate variables were considered, collection dates were earlier in warmer years, while summer rainfall had opposing associations with collection date depending on regions. There was only a modest correlation among traits, indicating a lack of a single life history/physiology axis. Nevertheless, leaf C:N was low for summer- versus spring-collected plants, consistent with a life history-physiology axis from slow-growing winter annuals to fast-growing spring/summer annuals. Regional heterogeneity in phenotype trends indicates complex responses to spatiotemporal environmental gradients potentially due to geographic genetic variation and climate interactions with other aspects of environment. Our study demonstrates how natural history collections can be used to broadly characterize trait responses to environment, revealing heterogeneity in response to anthropogenic change.

Experimental migration upward in elevation is associated with strong selection on life history traits

One of the strongest biological impacts of climate change has been the movement of species poleward and upward in elevation. Yet, what is not clear is the extent to which the spatial distribution of locally adapted lineages and ecologically important traits may also shift with continued climate change. Here, we take advantage of a transplant experiment mimicking up-slope seed dispersal for a suite of ecologically diverse populations of yellow monkeyflower (Mimulus guttatus sensu lato) into a high-elevation common garden during an extreme drought period in the Sierra Nevada mountains, California, USA. We use a demographic approach to quantify fitness and test for selection on life history traits in local versus lower-elevation populations and in normal versus drought years to test the potential for up-slope migration and phenotypic selection to alter the distribution of key life history traits in montane environments. We find that lower-elevation populations tend to outperform local populations, confirming the potential for up-slope migration. Although selection generally favored some local montane traits, including larger flowers and larger stem size at flowering, drought conditions tended to select for earlier flowering typical of lower-elevation genotypes. Taken together, this suggests that monkeyflower lineages moving upward in elevation could experience selection for novel trait combinations, particularly under warmer and drier conditions that are predicted to occur with continued climate change.

Fitness consequences of different migratory strategies in partially migratory populations: A multi-taxa meta-analysis

Partial migration—wherein migratory and non‐migratory individuals exist within the same population—represents a behavioural dimorphism; for it to persist over time, both strategies should yield equal individual fitness. This balance may be maintained through trade‐offs where migrants gain survival benefits by avoiding unfavourable conditions, while residents gain breeding benefits from early access to resources.

There has been little overarching quantitative analysis of the evidence for this fitness balance. As migrants—especially long‐distance migrants—may be particularly vulnerable to environmental change, it is possible that recent anthropogenic impacts could drive shifts in fitness balances within these populations.

We tested these predictions using a multi‐taxa meta‐analysis. Of 2,939 reviewed studies, 23 contained suitable information for meta‐analysis, yielding 129 effect sizes.

Of these, 73% (n = 94) reported higher resident fitness, 22% (n = 28) reported higher migrant fitness, and 5% (n = 7) reported equal fitness. Once weighted for precision, we found balanced fitness benefits across the entire dataset, but a consistently higher fitness of residents over migrants in birds and herpetofauna (the best‐sampled groups). Residency benefits were generally associated with survival, not breeding success, and increased with the number of years of data over which effect sizes were calculated, suggesting deviations from fitness parity are not due to sampling artefacts.

A pervasive survival benefit to residency documented in recent literature could indicate that increased exposure to threats associated with anthropogenic change faced by migrating individuals may be shifting the relative fitness balance between strategies.

Predicting climate-driven shifts in the breeding phenology of Varied Tits (Sittiparus various) in South Korean forests

Phenological shifts of plants and animals due to climate change can vary among regions and species, requiring study of local ecosystems to understand specific impacts. The reproductive timing of insectivorous songbirds in temperate forests is tightly synchronized with peak prey abundance, and thus they can be susceptible to such shift in timing. We aimed to investigate the effect of future climate change on the egg-laying phenology of the Varied Tit (Sittiparus various), which is common and widely distributed in South Korean forests. We developed the predictive model by investigating their egg-laying dates in response to spring temperatures along geographical gradients, and our model indicated that the tits lay eggs earlier when the average of daily mean and daily maximum temperatures rise. We predicted future shifts in egg-laying dates based on the most recent climate change model published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), under a scenario with no climate change mitigation and under a scenario with moderate mitigation. Under this outcome, this species might be unable to adapt to rapid climate change due to asynchrony with prey species during the reproductive period. If no mitigation is undertaken, our model predicts that egg-laying dates will be advanced by more than 10 days compared to the present in 83.58% of South Korea. However, even moderate mitigation will arrest this phenomenon and maintain present egg-laying dates. These results demonstrate the first quantitative assessment for the effect of warming temperatures on the phenological response of insectivorous songbirds in South Korea.

Stabilizing selection and adaptive evolution in a combination of two traits in an arctic ungulate

Stabilizing selection is thought to be common in wild populations and act as one of the main evolutionary mechanisms, which constrain phenotypic variation. When multiple traits interact to create a combined phenotype, correlational selection may be an important process driving adaptive evolution. Here, we report on phenotypic selection and evolutionary changes in two natal traits in a semidomestic population of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) in northern Finland. The population has been closely monitored since 1969, and detailed data have been collected on individuals since they were born. Over the length of the study period (1969-2015), we found directional and stabilizing selection toward a combination of earlier birth date and heavier birth mass with an intermediate optimum along the major axis of the selection surface. In addition, we demonstrate significant changes in mean traits toward earlier birth date and heavier birth mass, with corresponding genetic changes in breeding values during the study period. Our results demonstrate evolutionary changes in a combination of two traits, which agree closely with estimated patterns of phenotypic selection. Knowledge of the selective surface for combinations of genetically correlated traits are vital to predict how population mean phenotypes and fitness are affected when environments change.

Northward range expansion in spring-staging barnacle geese is a response to climate change and population growth, mediated by individual experience

All long-distance migrants must cope with changing environments, but species differ greatly in how they do so. In some species, individuals might be able to adjust by learning from individual experiences and by copying others. This could greatly speed up the process of adjustment, but evidence from the wild is scarce. Here, we investigated the processes by which a rapidly growing population of barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) responded to strong environmental changes on spring-staging areas in Norway. One area, Helgeland, has been the traditional site. Since the mid-1990s, an increasing number of geese stage in another area 250 km further north, Vesterålen. We collected data on goose numbers and weather conditions from 1975 to 2017 to explore the extent to which the increase in population size and a warmer climate contributed to this change in staging area use. During the study period, the estimated onset of grass growth advanced on average by 0.54 days/year in each of the two areas. The total production of digestible biomass for barnacle geese during the staging period increased in Vesterålen but remained stable in Helgeland. The goose population has doubled in size during the past 25 years, with most of the growth being accommodated in Vesterålen. The observations suggest that this dramatic increase would not have happened without higher temperatures in Vesterålen. Records of individually marked geese indicate that from the initial years of colonization onwards, especially young geese tended to switch to Vesterålen, thereby predominating in the flocks at Vesterålen. Older birds had a lower probability of switching to Vesterålen, but over the years, the probability increased for all ages. Our findings suggest that barnacle geese integrate socially learned behaviour with adjustments to individual experiences, allowing the population to respond rapidly and accurately to global change.

Long-term phenology of two North American secondary cavity-nesters in response to changing climate conditions

Wildlife populations can respond to changes in climate conditions by either adapting or moving to areas with preferred climate regimes. We studied nesting responses of two bird species, western bluebird (Sialia mexicana) and ash-throated flycatcher (Myiarchus cinerascens), to changing climate conditions (i.e., rising temperatures and increased drought stress) over 21 years in northern New Mexico. We used data from 1649 nests to assess whether the two species responded to changing climate conditions through phenological shifts in breeding time or shifts in nesting elevation. We also examined changes in reproductive output (i.e., clutch size). Our data show that western bluebirds significantly increased nesting elevation over a 19-year period by approximately 5 m per year. Mean spring temperature was the best predictor of western bluebird nesting elevation. Higher nesting elevations were not correlated with hatch dates or clutch sizes in western bluebirds, suggesting that nesting at higher elevations does not affect breeding time or reproductive output. We did not observe significant changes in nesting elevation or breeding dates in ash-throated flycatchers. Nesting higher in elevation may allow western bluebirds to cope with the increased temperatures and droughts. However, this climate niche conservatism may pose a risk for the conservation of the species if climate change and habitat loss continue to occur. The lack of significant changes detected in nesting elevation, breeding dates, and reproductive output in ash-throated flycatchers suggests a higher tolerance for changing environmental conditions in this species. This is consistent with the population increases reported for flycatchers in areas experiencing dramatic climate changes.

Rapid plastic breeding response to rain matches peak prey abundance in a tropical savanna bird

Changes in climate are shifting the timing of life cycle events in the natural world. Compared to northern temperate areas, these effects are relatively poorly understood in tropical and southern regions, where there is limited information on how timing of breeding and food availability are affected by climatic factors, and where patterns of breeding activity are more unpredictable within and between years. Combining a new statistical modelling approach with 5 years of continuous individual-based monitoring of a monsoonal tropical insectivorous bird, we quantified (a) the proximate climatic drivers at two trophic levels: timing of breeding and abundance of arthropod prey; (b) the effect of climate variation on reproductive output and (c) the role of individual plasticity. Rainfall was identified as the main determinant of phenology at both trophic levels. Throughout the year, likelihood of egg laying increased very rapidly in response to even small amounts of rain during the preceding 0-3 weeks. Adult body mass and male sperm storage also increased rapidly after rain, suggesting high breeding preparedness. Additionally, females were flexible, since they were more likely to nest whether their previous attempt was longer ago and unsuccessful. Arthropod abundance also increased after rainfall, but more slowly, with a peak around 10 weeks. Therefore, the peak food availability coincided with the presence of dependent fledglings. Fitness benefits of nesting after more rain appeared to be linked to offspring quantity rather than quality: nest attempts following higher rainfall produced larger clutches, but showed no improvement in nestling mass or relative fledging success. The response of clutch size to rainfall was plastic, since repeated sampling showed that individual females laid larger clutches after more rain, possibly mediated by improved body mass. Rapid, individually flexible breeding in response to rainfall and slower increase in arthropod abundance also as a response to rainfall, might buffer insectivorous species living in tropical seasonal environments from climate change-induced phenological trophic mismatches.

Temperature coupling of mate attraction signals and female mate preferences in four populations of Enchenopa treehopper (Hemiptera: Membracidae)

Variation in temperature can affect the expression of a variety of important fitness-related behaviours, including those involved with mate attraction and selection, with consequences for the coordination of mating across variable environments. We examined how temperature influences the expression of male mating signals and female mate preferences-as well as the relationship between how male signals and female mate preferences change across temperatures (signal-preference temperature coupling)-in Enchenopa binotata treehoppers. These small plant-feeding insects communicate using plantborne vibrations, and our field surveys indicate they experience significant natural variation in temperature during the mating season. We tested for signal-preference temperature coupling in four populations of E. binotata by manipulating temperature in a controlled laboratory environment. We measured the frequency of male signals-the trait for which females show strongest preference-and female peak preference-the signal frequency most preferred by females-across a range of biologically relevant temperatures (18°C-36°C). We found a strong effect of temperature on both male signals and female preferences, which generated signal-preference temperature coupling within each population. Even in a population in which male signals mismatched female preferences, the temperature coupling reinforces predicted directional selection across all temperatures. Additionally, we found similar thermal sensitivity in signals and preferences across populations even though populations varied in the mean frequency of male signals and female peak preference. Together, these results suggest that temperature variation should not affect the action of sexual selection via female choice, but rather should reinforce stabilizing selection in populations with signal-preference matches, and directional selection in those with signal-preference mismatches. Finally, we do not predict that thermal variation will disrupt the coordination of mating in this species by generating signal-preference mismatches at thermal extremes.

Among-population divergence in personality is linked to altitude in plateau pikas (Ochotona curzoniae

BACKGROUND

Animals inhabiting high altitudes consistently show slow life-histories. The pace-of-life syndrome (POLS) hypothesis posits behavioural, physiological and/or morphological traits that mediate the trade-off between current and future reproduction or survival, which have coevolved along a slow-fast life history continuum. Previous studies have shown that the life histories of plateau pikas varied across altitude, high-altitude individuals showed slow pace of life which were characterized by few litters per year with small litter sizes. Thus, we hypothesized that pikas populations at higher altitudes would also express personalities characteristic associated with slow life history, such as high sociability, low activity or aggressiveness. We tested this hypothesis by comparing the activity and docility of three plateau pika (Ochotona curzoniae) populations distributed along an altitudinal gradient of the Tibetan Plateau. We predicted that high-altitude pika would be more docile and less active.

RESULTS

The behaviour of 556 pikas, from which 120 individuals were measured at least twice, was quantified. We observed that plateau pikas at high altitudes were less active and more docile than pika at lower altitudes. Activity and docility were significantly and negatively correlated in populations from high altitudes but not in populations from low altitudes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support the POLS hypothesis, highlight the existence of personality variation among populations distributed along an altitudinal gradient and emphasise the importance of environmental selection on personality divergence.

Feather moult and bird appearance are correlated with global warming over the last 200 years

Global warming alters various avian phenological processes, including advanced reproduction and migration schedules. In birds, individual appearance is largely determined by plumage, influencing, for example, bird attractiveness, social status and camouflage. Juveniles of most passerine species replace their nest-grown plumage during the first months of life, a process that is called post-juvenile feather moult. Using data from ten natural history collections, we show that the extent of the post-juvenile moult has increased significantly over the last 212 years (1805-2016), a trend that is positively correlated with the temperature of the environment. Therefore, it seems that birds replaced more feathers under warmer conditions, causing juveniles to appear more similar to adult birds. Moreover, in several species, we describe a male-female switch in the extent of moult, with females currently replacing more feathers than males compared to the past. These results demonstrate different biological responses to climate warming by different phenotypes.

Parental Effects and Climate Change: Will Avian Incubation Behavior Shield Embryos from Increasing Environmental Temperatures?

A major driver of wildlife responses to climate change will include non-genomic effects, like those mediated through parental behavior and physiology (i.e., parental effects). Parental effects can influence lifetime reproductive success and survival, and thus population-level processes. However, the extent to which parental effects will contribute to population persistence or declines in response to climate change is not well understood. These effects may be substantial for species that exhibit extensive parental care behaviors, like birds. Environmental temperature is important in shaping avian incubation behavior, and these factors interact to determine the thermal conditions embryos are exposed to during development, and subsequently avian phenotypes and secondary sex ratios. In this article, we argue that incubation behavior may be an important mediator of avian responses to climate change, we compare incubation strategies of two species adapted to different thermal environments nesting in extreme heat, and we present a simple model that estimates changes in egg temperature based on these incubation patterns and predicted increases in maximum daily air temperature. We demonstrate that the predicted increase in air temperature by 2100 in the central USA will increase temperatures that eggs experience during afternoon off-bouts and the proportion of nests exposed to lethal temperatures. To better understand how species and local adaptations and behavioral-plasticity of incubation behavior will contribute to population responses to climate change comparisons are needed across more avian populations, species, and thermal landscapes.

Territory location and quality, together with climate, affect the timing of breeding in the white-throated dipper

Recent climate change has led to advanced spring phenology in many temperate regions. The phenological response to variation in the local environment, such as the habitat characteristics of the territories birds occupy, is less clear. The aim of this study is to understand how ecological conditions affect breeding time, and its consequences for reproduction, in a white-throated dipper Cinclus cinclus population in a river system in Norway during 34 years (1978-2011). Hatching date advanced almost nine days, indicating a response to higher temperatures and the advanced phenology in the area. Earlier breeding was found in warm springs and at lower altitudes. High population density facilitated earlier breeding close to the coast. Furthermore, when population density was low, breeding was early at territories that were rarely occupied, while in years with high density, breeding was early at territories that were frequently occupied. Also, when population density was low, earlier breeding occurred at territories that on average produced more offspring than other territories, while there was no difference in breeding time in high population years. Selection for early breeding was dependent on spring temperatures and high spring temperatures contributed to higher breeding success during the study period. We found that breeding phenology may have strong effects on fitness in the white-throated dipper, and thus that breeding time is an important ecological factor in a species that feeds mainly on aquatic rather than terrestrial prey.