Between migration load and evolutionary rescue: dispersal, adaptation and the response of spatially structured populations to environmental change

Evolutionary rescue on genotypic fitness landscapes

Populations facing adverse environments, novel pathogens or invasive competitors may be destined to extinction if they are unable to adapt rapidly. Quantitative predictions of the probability of survival through adaptation, evolutionary rescue, have been previously developed for one of the most natural and well-studied mappings from an organism's traits to its fitness, Fisher's geometric model (FGM). While FGM assumes that all possible trait values are accessible via mutation, in many applications only a finite set of rescue mutations will be available, such as mutations conferring resistance to a parasite, predator or toxin. We predict the probability of evolutionary rescue, via de novo mutation, when this underlying genetic structure is included. We find that rescue probability is always reduced when its genetic basis is taken into account. Unlike other known features of the genotypic FGM, however, the probability of rescue increases monotonically with the number of available mutations and approaches the behaviour of the classical FGM as the number of available mutations approaches infinity.

Ecological and Evolutionary Implications of Microbial Dispersal

Dispersal is simply defined as the movement of species across space and time. Despite this terse definition, dispersal is an essential process with direct ecological and evolutionary implications that modulate community assembly and turnover. Seminal ecological studies have shown that environmental context (e.g., local edaphic properties, resident community), dispersal timing and frequency, and species traits, collectively account for patterns of species distribution resulting in either their persistence or unsuccessful establishment within local communities. Despite the key importance of this process, relatively little is known about how dispersal operates in microbiomes across divergent systems and community types. Here, we discuss parallels of macro- and micro-organismal ecology with a focus on idiosyncrasies that may lead to novel mechanisms by which dispersal affects the structure and function of microbiomes. Within the context of ecological implications, we revise the importance of short- and long-distance microbial dispersal through active and passive mechanisms, species traits, and community coalescence, and how these align with recent advances in metacommunity theory. Conversely, we enumerate how microbial dispersal can affect diversification rates of species by promoting gene influxes within local communities and/or shifting genes and allele frequencies via migration or de novo changes (e.g., horizontal gene transfer). Finally, we synthesize how observed microbial assemblages are the dynamic outcome of both successful and unsuccessful dispersal events of taxa and discuss these concepts in line with the literature, thus enabling a richer appreciation of this process in microbiome research.

Genetic structure and dispersal in peripheral populations of a marine fish (Pacific cod, Gadus macrocephalus) and their importance for adaptation to climate change

Small and isolated peripheral populations, which are often remnants of glacial refugia, offer an opportunity to determine the magnitude and direction of fine-scale connectivity in high gene flow marine species. When located at the equatorial edge of a species' range, these populations may also harbor genetic diversity related to survival and reproduction at higher temperatures, a critical resource for marine species facing warming ocean temperatures. Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus), a marine fish in the North Pacific, has already experienced major shifts in biomass and distribution linked to climate change. We estimated the magnitude and direction of connectivity between peripheral populations of Pacific cod at the southern edge of the species' range, by conducting restriction site-associated DNA (RAD) sequencing and individual assignment on fish collected around the Korean Peninsula during the spawning season. Three populations on the western, eastern, and southern Korean coasts were highly differentiated (FST  = 0.025-0.042) and relatively small (Ne  = 433-1,777). Ten putative dispersers and estimates of contemporary migration rates revealed asymmetrical, west-to-east movement around the Korean Peninsula, at a higher rate than predicted by indirect estimates of connectivity (FST ). Allele frequencies at 87 RAD loci were decisively correlated with strong marine temperature gradients between the warmer southern coast and the cooler waters of the eastern and western coasts. Despite relatively small sample sizes, our data suggest asymmetrical dispersal and gene flow, potentially involving adaptive alleles, between peripheral populations inhabiting markedly different thermal regimes. Our study emphasizes the conservation value of peripheral populations in high gene flow marine fish species.

Evolutionary rescue can prevent rate-induced tipping

The transformation of ecosystems proceeds at unprecedented rates. Recent studies suggest that high rates of environmental change can cause rate-induced tipping. In ecological models, the associated rate-induced critical transition manifests during transient dynamics in which populations drop to dangerously low densities. In this work, we study how indirect evolutionary rescue—due to the rapid evolution of a predator’s trait—can save a prey population from the rate-induced collapse. Therefore, we explicitly include the time-dependent dynamics of environmental change and evolutionary adaptation in an eco-evolutionary system. We then examine how fast the evolutionary adaptation needs to be to counteract the response to environmental degradation and express this relationship by means of a critical rate. Based on this critical rate, we conclude that indirect evolutionary rescue is more probable if the predator population possesses a high genetic variation and, simultaneously, the environmental change is slow. Hence, our results strongly emphasize that the maintenance of biodiversity requires a deceleration of the anthropogenic degradation of natural habitats.

How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?

The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology-evolutionary rescue models-can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.

Sexual dimorphism driven by intersexual resource competition: Why is it rare, and where to look for it?

Sexes often differ more obviously in secondary sexual characteristics than in traits that appear naturally selected, despite conceivable benefits to intersexual niche partitioning. Genetic constraints may play a role in limiting sex‐specific niche evolution; however, it is not clear why this limit should apply to naturally selected traits more than those under sexual selection; the latter routinely produces dimorphism. We ask whether ecological factors and/or features of the mating system limit dimorphism in resource use, or conversely, what conditions are the most permissible ones for sexual niche differences.

The scale of mating competition and spatial variation in resource availability can help predict sexually dimorphic niches or the lack thereof. We investigate why and when dimorphism might fail to evolve even if genetic covariation between the sexes posed no constraint.

Our analytical model incorporates the first aspect of spatial interactions (scale of mating competition). It is followed by simulations that explore broader conditions, including multiple resources with habitat heterogeneity, genetic correlations and non‐Gaussian resource‐use efficiency functions.

We recover earlier known conditions for favourable conditions for the evolution of niche partitioning between sexes, such as narrow individual niche and low degrees of genetic constraint. We also show spatial considerations to alter this picture. Sexual niche divergence occurs more readily when local mating groups are small and different resources occur reliably across habitats. Polygyny (medium‐sized or large mating groups) can diminish the prospects for dimorphism even if no genetic constraints are present. Habitat heterogeneity typically also disfavours niche dimorphism but can also lead to polymorphism within a sex, if it is beneficial to specialize to be very competitive in one habitat, even at a cost to performance in the other.

Sexual conflict is usually used to explain dimorphic traits or behaviours. Our models highlight that introducing conflict (achieved by switching from monogamy to polygamy) can also be responsible for sexual monomorphism. Under monogamy, males benefit from specializing to consume other resources than what feeds the female best. Polygyny makes males disregard this female benefit, and both sexes compete for the most profitable resource, leading to overlapping niches.

Impacts of invasive plants on animal behaviour

The spread of invasive species is a threat to ecosystems worldwide. However, we know relatively little about how invasive species affect the behaviour of native animals, even though behaviour plays a vital role in the biotic interactions which are key to understanding the causes and impacts of biological invasions. Here, we explore how invasive plants - one of the most pervasive invasive taxa - impact the behaviour of native animals. To promote a mechanistic understanding of these behavioural impacts, we begin by introducing a mechanistic framework which explicitly considers the drivers and ecological consequences of behavioural change, as well as the moderating role of environmental context. We then synthesise the existing literature within this framework. We find that while some behavioural impacts of invasive plants are relatively well-covered in the literature, others are supported by only a handful of studies and should be explored further in the future. We conclude by identifying priority topics for future research, which will benefit from an interdisciplinary approach uniting invasion ecology with the study of animal behaviour and cognition.

Using Reciprocal Transplants to Assess Local Adaptation, Genetic Rescue, and Sexual Selection in Newly Established Populations

Small populations establishing on colonization fronts have to adapt to novel environments with limited genetic variation. The pace at which they can adapt, and the influence of genetic variation on their success, are key questions for understanding intraspecific diversity. To investigate these topics, we performed a reciprocal transplant experiment between two recently founded populations of brown trout in the sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Islands. Using individual tagging and genetic assignment methods, we tracked the fitness of local and foreign individuals, as well as the fitness of their offspring over two generations. In both populations, although not to the same extent, gene flow occurred between local and foreign gene pools. In both cases, however, we failed to detect obvious footprints of local adaptation (which should limit gene flow) and only weak support for genetic rescue (which should enhance gene flow). In the population where gene flow from foreign individuals was low, no clear differences were observed between the fitness of local, foreign, and F1 hybrid individuals. In the population where gene flow was high, foreign individuals were successful due to high mating success rather than high survival, and F1 hybrids had the same fitness as pure local offspring. These results suggest the importance of considering sexual selection, rather than just local adaptation and genetic rescue, when evaluating the determinants of success in small and recently founded populations.

Springtail phylogeography highlights biosecurity risks of repeated invasions and intraregional transfers among remote islands

Human-mediated transport of species outside their natural range is a rapidly growing threat to biodiversity, particularly for island ecosystems that have evolved in isolation. The genetic structure underpinning island populations will largely determine their response to increased transport and thus help to inform biosecurity management. However, this information is severely lacking for some groups, such as the soil fauna. We therefore analysed the phylogeographic structure of an indigenous and an invasive springtail species (Collembola: Poduromorpha), each distributed across multiple remote sub-Antarctic islands, where human activity is currently intensifying. For both species, we generated a genome-wide SNP data set and additionally analysed all available COI barcodes. Genetic differentiation in the indigenous springtail Tullbergia bisetosa is substantial among (and, to a lesser degree, within) islands, reflecting low dispersal and historic population fragmentation, while COI patterns reveal ancestral signatures of postglacial recolonization. This pronounced geographic structure demonstrates the key role of allopatric divergence in shaping the region's diversity and highlights the vulnerability of indigenous populations to genetic homogenization via human transport. For the invasive species Hypogastrura viatica, nuclear genetic structure is much less apparent, particularly for islands linked by regular shipping, while diverged COI haplotypes indicate multiple independent introductions to each island. Thus, human transport has likely facilitated this species' persistence since its initial colonization, through the ongoing introduction and inter-island spread of genetic variation. These findings highlight the different evolutionary consequences of human transport for indigenous and invasive soil species. Crucially, both outcomes demonstrate the need for improved intraregional biosecurity among remote island systems, where the policy focus to date has been on external introductions.

Implications of existing local (mal)adaptations for ecological forecasting under environmental change

Standing genetic variation represents a genetic load on population fitness but can also support a rapid response to short-term environmental change, and the greatest potential source of such standing genetic variation typically exists among locally adapted populations living along an environmental gradient. Here, we develop a spatially explicit simulation model to quantify the contribution of existing genetic variation arising from migration-mutation-selection-drift balance to time to extinction under environmental change. Simulations reveal that local adaptation across a species range associated with an underlying environmental gradient could extend time to extinction by nearly threefold irrespective of the rate of environmental change. The potential for preadapted alleles to increase the rate of adaptation changes the relative importance of established extinction risk factors; in particular, it reduced the importance of the breadth of environmental tolerance and it increased the relative importance of fecundity. Although migration of preadapted alleles generally increased persistence time, it decreased it at rates of environmental change close to the critical rate of change by creating a population bottleneck, which ultimately limited the rate at which de novo mutations could arise. An analysis of the extinction dynamics further revealed that one consequence of gene flow is the potential to maximize population growth rate in at least part of the species range, which is likely to have consequences for forecasting the consequences of ecological interactions. Our study shows that predictions of persistence time change fundamentally when existing local adaptations are explicitly taken into account, underscoring the need to preserve and manage genetic diversity.

Rapid changes in seed dispersal traits may modify plant responses to global change

When climatic or environmental conditions change, plant populations must either adapt to these new conditions, or track their niche via seed dispersal. Adaptation of plants to different abiotic environments has mostly been discussed with respect to physiological and demographic parameters that allow local persistence. However, rapid modifications in response to changing environmental conditions can also affect seed dispersal, both via plant traits and via their dispersal agents. Studying such changes empirically is challenging, due to the high variability in dispersal success, resulting from environmental heterogeneity, and substantial phenotypic variability of dispersal-related traits of seeds and their dispersers. The exact mechanisms that drive rapid changes are often not well understood, but the ecological implications of these processes are essential determinants of dispersal success, and deserve more attention from ecologists, especially in the context of adaptation to global change. We outline the evidence for rapid changes in seed dispersal traits by discussing variability due to plasticity or genetics broadly, and describe the specific traits and biological systems in which variability in dispersal is being studied, before discussing some of the potential underlying mechanisms. We then address future research needs and propose a simulation model that incorporates phenotypic plasticity in seed dispersal. We close with a call to action and encourage ecologists and biologist to embrace the challenge of better understanding rapid changes in seed dispersal and their consequences for the reaction of plant populations to global change.

Female-biased dispersal and non-random gene flow of MC1R variants do not result in a migration load in barn owls

Non-random gene flow is a widely neglected force in evolution and ecology. This genotype-dependent dispersal is difficult to assess, yet can impact the genetic variation of natural populations and their fitness. In this work, we demonstrate a high immigration rate of barn owls (Tyto alba) inside a Swiss population surveyed during 15 years. Using ten microsatellite loci as an indirect method to characterize dispersal, two-third of the genetic tests failed to detect a female-biased dispersal, and Monte Carlo simulations confirmed a low statistical power to detect sex-biased dispersal in case of high dispersal rate of both sexes. The capture-recapture data revealed a female-biased dispersal associated with an excess of heterozygote for the melanocortin-1 receptor gene (MC1R), which is responsible for their ventral rufous coloration. Thus, female homozygotes for the MC1R_WHITE allele might be negatively selected during dispersal. Despite the higher immigration of females that are heterozygote at MC1R, non-random gene flow should not lead to a migration load regarding this gene because we did not detect an effect of MC1R on survival and reproductive success in our local population. The present study highlights the usefulness of using multiple methods to correctly decrypt dispersal and gene flow. Moreover, despite theoretical expectations, we show that non-random dispersal of particular genotypes does not necessarily lead to migration load in recipient populations.

Genetic adaptation as a biological buffer against climate change: Potential and limitations

Climate change profoundly impacts ecosystems and their biota, resulting in range shifts, novel interactions, food web alterations, changed intensities of host-parasite interactions, and extinctions. An increasing number of studies have documented evolutionary changes in traits such as phenology and thermal tolerance. In this opinion paper, we argue that, while evolutionary responses have the potential to provide a buffer against extinctions or range shifts, a number of constraints and complexities blur this simple prediction. First, there are limits to evolutionary potential both in terms of genetic variation and demographic effects, and these limits differ strongly among taxa and populations. Second, there can be costs associated with genetic adaptation, such as a reduced evolutionary potential towards other (human-induced) environmental stressors or direct fitness costs due to tradeoffs. Third, the differential capacity of taxa to genetically respond to climate change results in novel interactions because different organism groups respond to a different degree with local compared to regional (dispersal and range shift) responses. These complexities result in additional changes in the selection pressures on populations. We conclude that evolution can provide an initial buffer against climate change for some taxa and populations but does not guarantee their survival. It does not necessarily result in reduced extinction risks across the range of taxa in a region or continent. Yet, considering evolution is crucial, as it is likely to strongly change how biota will respond to climate change and will impact which taxa will be the winners or losers at the local, metacommunity and regional scales.

Is the sky the limit? On the expansion threshold of a species' range

More than 100 years after Grigg's influential analysis of species' borders, the causes of limits to species' ranges still represent a puzzle that has never been understood with clarity. The topic has become especially important recently as many scientists have become interested in the potential for species' ranges to shift in response to climate change-and yet nearly all of those studies fail to recognise or incorporate evolutionary genetics in a way that relates to theoretical developments. I show that range margins can be understood based on just two measurable parameters: (i) the fitness cost of dispersal-a measure of environmental heterogeneity-and (ii) the strength of genetic drift, which reduces genetic diversity. Together, these two parameters define an 'expansion threshold': adaptation fails when genetic drift reduces genetic diversity below that required for adaptation to a heterogeneous environment. When the key parameters drop below this expansion threshold locally, a sharp range margin forms. When they drop below this threshold throughout the species' range, adaptation collapses everywhere, resulting in either extinction or formation of a fragmented metapopulation. Because the effects of dispersal differ fundamentally with dimension, the second parameter-the strength of genetic drift-is qualitatively different compared to a linear habitat. In two-dimensional habitats, genetic drift becomes effectively independent of selection. It decreases with 'neighbourhood size'-the number of individuals accessible by dispersal within one generation. Moreover, in contrast to earlier predictions, which neglected evolution of genetic variance and/or stochasticity in two dimensions, dispersal into small marginal populations aids adaptation. This is because the reduction of both genetic and demographic stochasticity has a stronger effect than the cost of dispersal through increased maladaptation. The expansion threshold thus provides a novel, theoretically justified, and testable prediction for formation of the range margin and collapse of the species' range.

Population Genomics of Herbicide Resistance: Adaptation via Evolutionary Rescue

The evolution of herbicide resistance in weed populations is a highly replicated example of adaptation surmounting the race against extinction, but the factors determining its rate and nature remain poorly understood. Here, we explore theory and empirical evidence for the importance of population genetic parameters-including effective population size, dominance, mutational target size, and gene flow-in influencing the probability and mode of herbicide resistance adaptation and its variation across species. We compiled data on the number of resistance mutations across populations for 79 herbicide-resistant species. Our findings are consistent with theoretical predictions that self-fertilization reduces resistance adaptation from standing variation within populations, but increases independent adaptation across populations. Furthermore, we provide evidence for a ploidy-mating system interaction that may reflect trade-offs in polyploids between increased effective population size and greater masking of beneficial mutations. We highlight the power of population genomic approaches to provide insights into the evolutionary dynamics of herbicide resistance with important implications for understanding the limits of adaptation.

Tritrophic phenological match-mismatch in space and time

Increasing temperatures associated with climate change may generate phenological mismatches that disrupt previously synchronous trophic interactions. Most work on mismatch has focused on temporal trends, whereas spatial variation in the degree of trophic synchrony has largely been neglected, even though the degree to which mismatch varies in space has implications for meso-scale population dynamics and evolution. Here we quantify latitudinal trends in phenological mismatch, using phenological data on an oak-caterpillar-bird system from across the UK. Increasing latitude delays phenology of all species, but more so for oak, resulting in a shorter interval between leaf emergence and peak caterpillar biomass at northern locations. Asynchrony found between peak caterpillar biomass and peak nestling demand of blue tits, great tits and pied flycatchers increases in earlier (warm) springs. There is no evidence of spatial variation in the timing of peak nestling demand relative to peak caterpillar biomass for any species. Phenological mismatch alone is thus unlikely to explain spatial variation in population trends. Given projections of continued spring warming, we predict that temperate forest birds will become increasingly mismatched with peak caterpillar timing. Latitudinal invariance in the direction of mismatch may act as a double-edged sword that presents no opportunities for spatial buffering from the effects of mismatch on population size, but generates spatially consistent directional selection on timing, which could facilitate rapid evolutionary change.

Comparing the consequences of natural selection, adaptive phenotypic plasticity, and matching habitat choice for phenotype-environment matching, population genetic structure, and reproductive isolation in meta-populations

Organisms commonly experience significant spatiotemporal variation in their environments. In response to such heterogeneity, different mechanisms may act that enhance ecological performance locally. However, depending on the nature of the mechanism involved, the consequences for populations may differ greatly. Building on a previous model that investigated the conditions under which different adaptive mechanisms (co)evolve, this study compares the ecological and evolutionary population consequences of three very different responses to environmental heterogeneity: matching habitat choice (directed gene flow), adaptive plasticity (associated with random gene flow), and divergent natural selection. Using individual‐based simulations, we show that matching habitat choice can have a greater adaptive potential than plasticity or natural selection: it allows for local adaptation while protecting genetic polymorphism despite global mating or strong environmental changes. Our simulations further reveal that increasing environmental fluctuations and unpredictability generally favor the emergence of specialist genotypes but that matching habitat choice is better at preventing local maladaptation by individuals. This confirms that matching habitat choice can speed up the genetic divergence among populations, cause indirect assortative mating via spatial clustering, and hence even facilitate sympatric speciation. This study highlights the potential importance of directed dispersal in local adaptation and speciation, stresses the difficulty of deriving its operation from nonexperimental observational data alone, and helps define a set of ecological conditions which should favor its emergence and subsequent detection in nature.

Ecological disturbance influences adaptive divergence despite high gene flow in golden perch (Macquaria ambigua): Implications for management and resilience to climate change

Populations that are adaptively divergent but maintain high gene flow may have greater resilience to environmental change as gene flow allows the spread of alleles that have already been tested elsewhere. In addition, populations naturally subjected to ecological disturbance may already hold resilience to future environmental change. Confirming this necessitates ecological genomic studies of high dispersal, generalist species. Here we perform one such study on golden perch (Macquaria ambigua) in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), Australia, using a genome-wide SNP data set. The MDB spans across arid to wet and temperate to subtropical environments, with low to high ecological disturbance in the form of low to high hydrological variability. We found high gene flow across the basin and three populations with low neutral differentiation. Genotype-environment association analyses detected adaptive divergence predominantly linked to an arid region with highly variable riverine flow, and candidate loci included functions related to fat storage, stress and molecular or tissue repair. The high connectivity of golden perch in the MDB will likely allow locally adaptive traits in its most arid and hydrologically variable environment to spread and be selected in localities that are predicted to become arid and hydrologically variable in future climates. High connectivity in golden perch is likely due to their generalist life history and efforts of fisheries management. Our study adds to growing evidence of adaptation in the face of gene flow and highlights the importance of considering ecological disturbance and adaptive divergence in biodiversity management.

Adaptive responses to salinity stress across multiple life stages in anuran amphibians

Background

In many regions, freshwater wetlands are increasing in salinity at rates exceeding historic levels. Some freshwater organisms, like amphibians, may be able to adapt and persist in salt-contaminated wetlands by developing salt tolerance. Yet adaptive responses may be more challenging for organisms with complex life histories, because the same environmental stressor can require responses across different ontogenetic stages. Here we investigated responses to salinity in anuran amphibians: a common, freshwater taxon with a complex life cycle. We conducted a meta-analysis to define how the lethality of saltwater exposure changes across multiple life stages, surveyed wetlands in a coastal region experiencing progressive salinization for the presence of anurans, and used common garden experiments to investigate whether chronic salt exposure alters responses in three sequential life stages (reproductive, egg, and tadpole life stages) in Hyla cinerea, a species repeatedly observed in saline wetlands.

Results

Meta-analysis revealed differential vulnerability to salt stress across life stages with the egg stage as the most salt-sensitive. Field surveys revealed that 25% of the species known to occur in the focal region were detected in salt-intruded habitats. Remarkably, Hyla cinerea was found in large abundances in multiple wetlands with salinity concentrations 450% higher than the tadpole-stage LC₅₀. Common garden experiments showed that coastal (chronically salt exposed) populations of H. cinerea lay more eggs, have higher hatching success, and greater tadpole survival in higher salinities compared to inland (salt naïve) populations.

Conclusions

Collectively, our data suggest that some species of anuran amphibians have divergent and adaptive responses to salt exposure across populations and across different life stages. We propose that anuran amphibians may be a novel and amenable natural model system for empirical explorations of adaptive responses to environmental change.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12983-017-0222-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Evolution and the duration of a doomed population

Many populations are doomed to extinction, but little is known about how evolution contributes to their longevity. We address this by modeling an asexual population consisting of genotypes whose abundances change independently according to a system of continuous branching diffusions. Each genotype is characterized by its initial abundance, growth rate, and reproductive variance. The latter two components determine the genotype's "risk function" which describes its per capita probability of extinction at any time. We derive the probability distribution of extinction times for a polymorphic population, which can be expressed in terms of genotypic risk functions. We use this to explore how spontaneous mutation, abrupt environmental change, or population supplementation and removal affect the time to extinction. Results suggest that evolution based on new mutations does little to alter the time to extinction. Abrupt environmental changes that affect all genotypes can have more substantial impact, but, curiously, a beneficial change does more to extend the lifetime of thriving than threatened populations of the same initial abundance. Our results can be used to design policies that meet specific conservation goals or management strategies that speed the elimination of agricultural pests or human pathogens.

Climate adaptation is not enough: warming does not facilitate success of southern tundra plant populations in the high Arctic

Rapidly rising temperatures are expected to cause latitudinal and elevational range shifts as species track their optimal climate north and upward. However, a lack of adaptation to environmental conditions other than climate - for example photoperiod, biotic interactions, or edaphic conditions - might limit the success of immigrants in a new location despite hospitable climatic conditions. Here, we present one of the first direct experimental tests of the hypothesis that warmer temperatures at northern latitudes will confer a fitness advantage to southern immigrants relative to native populations. As rates of warming in the Arctic are more than double the global average, understanding the impacts of warming in Arctic ecosystems is especially urgent. We established experimentally warmed and nonwarmed common garden plots at Alexandra Fiord, Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic with seeds of two forb species (Oxyria digyna and Papaver radicatum) originating from three to five populations at different latitudes across the Arctic. We found that plants from the local populations generally had higher survival and obtained a greater maximum size than foreign individuals, regardless of warming treatment. Phenological traits varied with latitude of the source population, such that southern populations demonstrated substantially delayed leaf-out and senescence relative to northern populations. Our results suggest that environmental conditions other than temperature may influence the ability of foreign populations and species to establish at more northerly latitudes as the climate warms, potentially leading to lags in northward range shifts for some species.

Dispersal responses override density effects on genetic diversity during post-disturbance succession

Dispersal fundamentally influences spatial population dynamics but little is known about dispersal variation in landscapes where spatial heterogeneity is generated predominantly by disturbance and succession. We tested the hypothesis that habitat succession following fire inhibits dispersal, leading to declines over time in genetic diversity in the early successional gecko Nephrurus stellatus We combined a landscape genetics field study with a spatially explicit simulation experiment to determine whether successional patterns in genetic diversity were driven by habitat-mediated dispersal or demographic effects (declines in population density leading to genetic drift). Initial increases in genetic structure following fire were likely driven by direct mortality and rapid population expansion. Subsequent habitat succession increased resistance to gene flow and decreased dispersal and genetic diversity inN. stellatus Simulated changes in population density alone did not reproduce these results. Habitat-mediated reductions in dispersal, combined with changes in population density, were essential to drive the field-observed patterns. Our study provides a framework for combining demographic, movement and genetic data with simulations to discover the relative influence of demography and dispersal on patterns of landscape genetic structure. Our results suggest that succession can inhibit connectivity among individuals, opening new avenues for understanding how disturbance regimes influence spatial population dynamics.

Spatial patterns of immunogenetic and neutral variation underscore the conservation value of small, isolated American badger populations

Small and isolated populations often exhibit low genetic diversity due to drift and inbreeding, but may simultaneously harbour adaptive variation. We investigate spatial distributions of immunogenetic variation in American badger subspecies (Taxidea taxus), as a proxy for evaluating their evolutionary potential across the northern extent of the species' range. We compared genetic structure of 20 microsatellites and the major histocompatibility complex (MHC DRB exon 2) to evaluate whether small, isolated populations show low adaptive polymorphism relative to large and well-connected populations. Our results suggest that gene flow plays a prominent role in shaping MHC polymorphism across large spatial scales, while the interplay between gene flow and selection was stronger towards the northern peripheries. The similarity of MHC alleles within subspecies relative to their neutral genetic differentiation suggests that adaptive divergence among subspecies can be maintained despite ongoing gene flow along subspecies boundaries. Neutral genetic diversity was low in small relative to large populations, but MHC diversity within individuals was high in small populations. Despite reduced neutral genetic variation, small and isolated populations harbour functional variation that likely contribute to the species evolutionary potential at the northern range. Our findings suggest that conservation approaches should focus on managing adaptive variation across the species range rather than protecting subspecies per se.

Genetic differentiation and reduced genetic diversity at the northern range edge of two species with different dispersal modes

Theory predicts that genetic variation should be reduced at range margins, but empirical support is equivocal. Here, we used genotyping-by-sequencing technology to investigate genetic variation in central and marginal populations of two species in the marine gastropod genus Crepidula. These two species have different development and dispersal types and might therefore show different spatial patterns of genetic variation. Both allelic richness and the proportion of private alleles were highest in the most central populations of both species, and lower at the margin. The species with low dispersal, Crepidula convexa, showed high degrees of structure throughout the range that conform to the pattern found in previous studies using other molecular markers. The northernmost populations of the high-dispersing species, Crepidula fornicata, are distinct from more central populations, although this species has been previously observed to have little genetic structure over much of its range. Although genetic diversity was significantly lower at the range margin, the absolute reduction in diversity observed with these genomewide markers was slight, and it is not yet known whether there are functional consequences for the marginal populations.

The Role of Recombination in Evolutionary Rescue

How likely is it that a population escapes extinction through adaptive evolution? The answer to this question is of great relevance in conservation biology, where we aim at species' rescue and the maintenance of biodiversity, and in agriculture and medicine, where we seek to hamper the emergence of pesticide or drug resistance. By reshuffling the genome, recombination has two antagonistic effects on the probability of evolutionary rescue: it generates and it breaks up favorable gene combinations. Which of the two effects prevails depends on the fitness effects of mutations and on the impact of stochasticity on the allele frequencies. In this article, we analyze a mathematical model for rescue after a sudden environmental change when adaptation is contingent on mutations at two loci. The analysis reveals a complex nonlinear dependence of population survival on recombination. We moreover find that, counterintuitively, a fast eradication of the wild type can promote rescue in the presence of recombination. The model also shows that two-step rescue is not unlikely to happen and can even be more likely than single-step rescue (where adaptation relies on a single mutation), depending on the circumstances.

Lack of Spatial Immunogenetic Structure among Wolverine (Gulo gulo) Populations Suggestive of Broad Scale Balancing Selection

Elucidating the adaptive genetic potential of wildlife populations to environmental selective pressures is fundamental for species conservation. Genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) are highly polymorphic, and play a key role in the adaptive immune response against pathogens. MHC polymorphism has been linked to balancing selection or heterogeneous selection promoting local adaptation. However, spatial patterns of MHC polymorphism are also influenced by gene flow and drift. Wolverines are highly vagile, inhabiting varied ecoregions that include boreal forest, taiga, tundra, and high alpine ecosystems. Here, we investigated the immunogenetic variation of wolverines in Canada as a surrogate for identifying local adaptation by contrasting the genetic structure at MHC relative to the structure at 11 neutral microsatellites to account for gene flow and drift. Evidence of historical positive selection was detected at MHC using maximum likelihood codon-based methods. Bayesian and multivariate cluster analyses revealed weaker population genetic differentiation at MHC relative to the increasing microsatellite genetic structure towards the eastern wolverine distribution. Mantel correlations of MHC against geographical distances showed no pattern of isolation by distance (IBD: r = -0.03, p = 0.9), whereas for microsatellites we found a relatively strong and significant IBD (r = 0.54, p = 0.01). Moreover, we found a significant correlation between microsatellite allelic richness and the mean number of MHC alleles, but we did not observe low MHC diversity in small populations. Overall these results suggest that MHC polymorphism has been influenced primarily by balancing selection and to a lesser extent by neutral processes such as genetic drift, with no clear evidence for local adaptation. This study contributes to our understanding of how vulnerable populations of wolverines may respond to selective pressures across their range.

Evolutionary rescue can be impeded by temporary environmental amelioration

Rapid evolutionary adaptation has the potential to rescue from extinction populations experiencing environmental changes. Little is known, however, about the impact of short-term environmental fluctuations during long-term environmental deterioration, an intrinsic property of realistic environmental changes. Temporary environmental amelioration arising from such fluctuations could either facilitate evolutionary rescue by allowing population recovery (a positive demographic effect) or impede it by relaxing selection for beneficial mutations required for future survival (a negative population genetic effect). We address this uncertainty in an experiment with populations of a bacteriophage virus that evolved under deteriorating conditions (gradually increasing temperature). Periodic environmental amelioration (short periods of reduced temperature) caused demographic recovery during the early phase of the experiment, but ultimately reduced the frequency of evolutionary rescue. These experimental results suggest that environmental fluctuations could reduce the potential of evolutionary rescue.

Causes and consequences of failed adaptation to biological invasions: the role of ecological constraints

Biological invasions are a major challenge to native communities and have the potential to exert strong selection on native populations. As a result, native taxa may adapt to the presence of invaders through increased competitive ability, increased antipredator defences or altered morphologies that may limit encounters with toxic prey. Yet, in some cases, species may fail to adapt to biological invasions. Many challenges to adaptation arise because biological invasions occur in complex species-rich communities in spatially and temporally variable environments. Here, we review these 'ecological' constraints on adaptation, focusing on the complications that arise from the need to simultaneously adapt to multiple biotic agents and from temporal and spatial variation in both selection and demography. Throughout, we illustrate cases where these constraints might be especially important in native populations faced with biological invasions. Our goal was to highlight additional complexities empiricists should consider when studying adaptation to biological invasions and to begin to identify conditions when adaptation may fail to be an effective response to invasion.

Chromosome inversions, adaptive cassettes and the evolution of species' ranges

A chromosome inversion can spread when it captures locally adapted alleles or when it is introduced into a species by hybridization with adapted alleles that were previously absent. We present a model that shows how both processes can cause a species range to expand. Introgression of an inversion that carries novel, locally adapted alleles is a particularly powerful mechanism for range expansion. The model supports the earlier proposal that introgression of an inversion triggered a large range expansion of a malaria mosquito. These results suggest a role for inversions as cassettes of genes that can accelerate adaptation by crossing species boundaries, rather than protecting genomes from introgression.

ALADYN - a spatially explicit, allelic model for simulating adaptive dynamics

ALADYN is a freely available cross-platform C++ modeling framework for stochastic simulation of joint allelic and demographic dynamics of spatially-structured populations. Juvenile survival is linked to the degree of match between an individual's phenotype and the local phenotypic optimum. There is considerable flexibility provided for the demography of the considered species and the genetic architecture of the traits under selection. ALADYN facilitates the investigation of adaptive processes to spatially and/or temporally changing conditions and the resulting niche and range dynamics. To our knowledge ALADYN is so far the only model that allows a continuous resolution of individuals' locations in a spatially explicit landscape together with the associated patterns of selection.

Evolutionary rescue: linking theory for conservation and medicine

Evolutionary responses that rescue populations from extinction when drastic environmental changes occur can be friend or foe. The field of conservation biology is concerned with the survival of species in deteriorating global habitats. In medicine, in contrast, infected patients are treated with chemotherapeutic interventions, but drug resistance can compromise eradication of pathogens. These contrasting biological systems and goals have created two quite separate research communities, despite addressing the same central question of whether populations will decline to extinction or be rescued through evolution. We argue that closer integration of the two fields, especially of theoretical understanding, would yield new insights and accelerate progress on these applied problems. Here, we overview and link mathematical modelling approaches in these fields, suggest specific areas with potential for fruitful exchange, and discuss common ideas and issues for empirical testing and prediction.