An evolutionary model to predict the frequency of antibiotic resistance under seasonal antibiotic use, and an application to Streptococcus pneumoniae

Forecasting antimicrobial resistance evolution

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a major global health issue. Current measures for tackling it comprise mainly the prudent use of drugs, the development of new drugs, and rapid diagnostics. Relatively little attention has been given to forecasting the evolution of resistance. Here, we argue that forecasting has the potential to be a great asset in our arsenal of measures to tackle AMR. We argue that, if successfully implemented, forecasting resistance will help to resolve the antibiotic crisis in three ways: it will (i) guide a more sustainable use (and therefore lifespan) of antibiotics and incentivize investment in drug development, (ii) reduce the spread of AMR genes and pathogenic microbes in the environment and between patients, and (iii) allow more efficient treatment of persistent infections, reducing the continued evolution of resistance. We identify two important challenges that need to be addressed for the successful establishment of forecasting: (i) the development of bespoke technology that allows stakeholders to empirically assess the risks of resistance evolving during the process of drug development and therapeutic/preventive use, and (ii) the transformative shift in mindset from the current praxis of mostly addressing the problem of antibiotic resistance a posteriori to a concept of a priori estimating, and acting on, the risks of resistance.

An agent-based model on antimicrobial de-escalation in intensive care units: Implications on clinical trial design

Antimicrobial de-escalation refers to reducing the spectrum of antibiotics used in treating bacterial infections. This strategy is widely recommended in many antimicrobial stewardship programs and is believed to reduce patients' exposure to broad-spectrum antibiotics and prevent resistance. However, the ecological benefits of de-escalation have not been universally observed in clinical studies. This paper conducts computer simulations to assess the ecological effects of de-escalation on the resistance prevalence of Pseudomonas aeruginosa-a frequent pathogen causing nosocomial infections. Synthetic data produced by the models are then used to estimate the sample size and study period needed to observe the predicted effects in clinical trials. Our results show that de-escalation can reduce colonization and infections caused by bacterial strains resistant to the empiric antibiotic, limit the use of broad-spectrum antibiotics, and avoid inappropriate empiric therapies. Further, we show that de-escalation could reduce the overall super-infection incidence, and this benefit becomes more evident under good compliance with hand hygiene protocols among health care workers. Finally, we find that any clinical study aiming to observe the essential effects of de-escalation should involve at least ten arms and last for four years-a size never attained in prior studies. This study explains the controversial findings of de-escalation in previous clinical studies and illustrates how mathematical models can inform outcome expectations and guide the design of clinical studies.

Bayesian Calibration to Address the Challenge of Antimicrobial Resistance: A Review

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) emerges when disease-causing microorganisms develop the ability to withstand the effects of antimicrobial therapy. This phenomenon is often fueled by the human-to-human transmission of pathogens and the overuse of antibiotics. Over the past 50 years, increased computational power has facilitated the application of Bayesian inference algorithms. In this comprehensive review, the basic theory of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are explained. These inference algorithms are instrumental in calibrating complex statistical models to the vast amounts of AMR-related data. Popular statistical models include hierarchical and mixture models as well as discrete and stochastic epidemiological compartmental and agent based models. Studies encompassed multi-drug resistance, economic implications of vaccines, and modeling AMR in vitro as well as within specific populations. We describe how combining these topics in a coherent framework can result in an effective antimicrobial stewardship. We also outline recent advancements in the methodology of Bayesian inference algorithms and provide insights into their prospective applicability for modeling AMR in the future.

Defensive symbiosis in the wild: Seasonal dynamics of parasitism risk and symbiont-conferred resistance

Parasite-mediated selection can rapidly drive up resistance levels in host populations, but fixation of resistance traits may be prevented by costs of resistance. Black bean aphids (Aphis fabae) benefit from increased resistance to parasitoids when carrying the defensive bacterial endosymbiont Hamiltonella defensa. However, due to fitness costs that come with symbiont infection, symbiont-conferred resistance may result in either a net benefit or a net cost to the aphid host, depending on parasitoid presence as well as on the general ecological context. Balancing selection may therefore explain why in natural aphid populations, H. defensa is often found at intermediate frequencies. Here we present a 2-year field study where we set out to look for signatures of balancing selection in natural aphid populations. We collected temporally well-resolved data on the prevalence of H. defensa in A. f. fabae and estimated the risk imposed by parasitoids using sentinel hosts. Despite a marked and consistent early-summer peak in parasitism risk, and significant changes in symbiont prevalence over time, we found just a weak correlation between parasitism risk and H. defensa frequency dynamics. H. defensa prevalence in the populations under study was, in fact, better explained by the number of heat days that previous aphid generations were exposed to. Our study grants an unprecedentedly well-resolved insight into the dynamics of endosymbiont and parasitoid communities of A. f. fabae populations, and it adds to a growing body of empirical evidence suggesting that not only parasitism risk, but rather multifarious selection is shaping H. defensa prevalence in the wild.

Interplay between strain fitness and transmission frequency determines prevalence of antimicrobial resistance

The steep rise of infections caused by bacteria that are resistant to antimicrobial agents threatens global health. However, the association between antimicrobial use and the prevalence of resistance is not straightforward. Therefore, it is necessary to quantify the importance of additional factors that affect this relationship. We theoretically explore how the prevalence of resistance is affected by the combination of three factors: antimicrobial use, bacterial transmission, and fitness cost of resistance. We present a model that combines within-host, between-hosts and between-populations dynamics, built upon the competitive Lotka-Volterra equations. We developed the model in a manner that allows future experimental validation of the findings with single isolates in the laboratory. Each host may carry two strains (susceptible and resistant) that represent the host’s commensal microbiome and are not the target of the antimicrobial treatment. The model simulates a population of hosts who are treated periodically with antibiotics and transmit bacteria to each other. We show that bacterial transmission results in strain co-existence. Transmission disseminates resistant bacteria in the population, increasing the levels of resistance. Counterintuitively, when the cost of resistance is low, high transmission frequencies reduce resistance prevalence. Transmission between host populations leads to more similar resistance levels, increasing the susceptibility of the population with higher antimicrobial use. Overall, our results indicate that the interplay between bacterial transmission and strain fitness affects the prevalence of resistance in a non-linear way. We then place our results within the context of ecological theory, particularly on temporal niche partitioning and metapopulation rescue, and we formulate testable experimental predictions for future research.

Ecology, more than antibiotics consumption, is the major predictor for the global distribution of aminoglycoside-modifying enzymes

Antibiotic consumption and its abuses have been historically and repeatedly pointed out as the major driver of antibiotic resistance emergence and propagation. However, several examples show that resistance may persist despite substantial reductions in antibiotic use, and that other factors are at stake. Here, we study the temporal, spatial, and ecological distribution patterns of aminoglycoside resistance, by screening more than 160,000 publicly available genomes for 27 clusters of genes encoding aminoglycoside-modifying enzymes (AME genes). We find that AME genes display a very ubiquitous pattern: about 25% of sequenced bacteria carry AME genes. These bacteria were sequenced from all the continents (except Antarctica) and terrestrial biomes, and belong to a wide number of phyla. By focusing on European countries between 1997 and 2018, we show that aminoglycoside consumption has little impact on the prevalence of AME-gene-carrying bacteria, whereas most variation in prevalence is observed among biomes. We further analyze the resemblance of resistome compositions across biomes: soil, wildlife, and human samples appear to be central to understand the exchanges of AME genes between different ecological contexts. Together, these results support the idea that interventional strategies based on reducing antibiotic use should be complemented by a stronger control of exchanges, especially between ecosystems.

Analysis of multiple bacterial species and antibiotic classes reveals large variation in the association between seasonal antibiotic use and resistance

Understanding how antibiotic use drives resistance is crucial for guiding effective strategies to limit the spread of resistance, but the use-resistance relationship across pathogens and antibiotics remains unclear. We applied sinusoidal models to evaluate the seasonal use-resistance relationship across 3 species (Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, and Klebsiella pneumoniae) and 5 antibiotic classes (penicillins, macrolides, quinolones, tetracyclines, and nitrofurans) in Boston, Massachusetts. Outpatient use of all 5 classes and resistance in inpatient and outpatient isolates in 9 of 15 species-antibiotic combinations showed statistically significant amplitudes of seasonality (false discovery rate (FDR) < 0.05). While seasonal peaks in use varied by class, resistance in all 9 species-antibiotic combinations peaked in the winter and spring. The correlations between seasonal use and resistance thus varied widely, with resistance to all antibiotic classes being most positively correlated with use of the winter peaking classes (penicillins and macrolides). These findings challenge the simple model of antibiotic use independently selecting for resistance and suggest that stewardship strategies will not be equally effective across all species and antibiotics. Rather, seasonal selection for resistance across multiple antibiotic classes may be dominated by use of the most highly prescribed antibiotic classes, penicillins and macrolides.

What Is the Role of the Environment in the Emergence of Novel Antibiotic Resistance Genes? A Modeling Approach

It is generally accepted that intervention strategies to curb antibiotic resistance cannot solely focus on human and veterinary medicine but must also consider environmental settings. While the environment clearly has a role in transmission of resistant bacteria, its role in the emergence of novel antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) is less clear. It has been suggested that the environment constitutes an enormous recruitment ground for ARGs to pathogens, but its extent is practically unknown. We have constructed a model framework for resistance emergence and used available quantitative data on relevant processes to identify limiting steps in the appearance of ARGs in human pathogens. We found that in a majority of possible scenarios, the environment would only play a minor role in the emergence of novel ARGs. However, the uncertainty is enormous, highlighting an urgent need for more quantitative data. Specifically, more data is most needed on the fitness costs of ARG carriage, the degree of dispersal of resistant bacteria from the environment to humans, and the rates of mobilization and horizontal transfer of ARGs. This type of data is instrumental to determine which processes should be targeted for interventions to curb development and transmission of ARGs in the environment.

Evidence for Long-Term Anthropogenic Pollution: The Hadal Trench as a Depository and Indicator for Dissemination of Antibiotic Resistance Genes

Knowledge of the distribution and dissemination of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) is essential for understanding anthropogenic impacts on natural ecosystems. The transportation of ARGs via aquatic environments is significant and has received great attention, but whether there has been anthropogenic ARG pollution to the hadal ocean ecosystem has not been well explored. For investigating ecological health concerns, we profiled the ARG occurrence in sediments of the Mariana Trench (MT) (10 890 m), the deepest region of the ocean. Metagenomic-based ARG profiles showed a sudden increase of abundance and diversity in the surface layer of MT sediments reaching 2.73 × 10^-2 copy/cell and 81 subtypes, and a high percentage of ∼63.6% anthropogenic pollution sources was predicted by the Bayesian-modeling classification method. These together suggested that ARG accumulation and anthropogenic impacts have already permeated into the bottom of the deepest corner on the earth. Moreover, six ARG-carrying draft genomes were retrieved using a metagenomic binning strategy, one of which assigned as Streptococcus was identified as a potential bacterial host to contribute to the ARG accumulation in MT, carrying ermF, tetM, tetQ, cfxA2, PBP-2X, and PBP-1A. We propose that the MT ecosystem needs further long-term monitoring for the assessment of human impacts, and our identified three biomarkers (cfxA2, ermF, and mefA) could be used for the rapid monitoring of anthropogenic pollution. Together our findings imply that anthropogenic pollution has penetrated into the deepest region of the ocean and urge for better pollution control to reduce the risk of ARG dissemination to prevent the consistent accumulation and potential threat to the natural environment.

Using ecological coexistence theory to understand antibiotic resistance and microbial competition

Tackling antibiotic resistance necessitates deep understanding of how resource competition within and between species modulates the fitness of resistant microbes. Recent advances in ecological coexistence theory offer a powerful framework to probe the mechanisms regulating intra- and interspecific competition, but the significance of this body of theory to the problem of antibiotic resistance has been largely overlooked. In this Perspective, we draw on emerging ecological theory to illustrate how changes in resource niche overlap can be equally important as changes in competitive ability for understanding costs of resistance and the persistence of resistant pathogens in microbial communities. We then show how different temporal patterns of resource and antibiotic supply, alongside trade-offs in competitive ability at high and low resource concentrations, can have diametrically opposing consequences for the coexistence and exclusion of resistant and susceptible strains. These insights highlight numerous opportunities for innovative experimental and theoretical research into the ecological dimensions of antibiotic resistance.

Pneumococcal Competition Modulates Antibiotic Resistance in the Pre-Vaccination Era: A Modelling Study

The ongoing emergence of antibiotic resistant strains and high frequencies of antibiotic resistance of Streptococcus pneumoniae poses a major public health challenge. How and which ecological and evolutionary mechanisms maintain the coexistence of antibiotic resistant and susceptible strains remains largely an open question. We developed an individual-based, stochastic model expanding on a previous pneumococci modelling framework. We explore how between- and within-host mechanisms of competition can sustain observed levels of resistance to antibiotics in the pre-vaccination era. Our framework considers that within-host competition for co-colonization between resistant and susceptible strains can arise via pre-existing immunity (immunological competition) or intrinsic fitness differences due to resistance costs (ecological competition). We find that beyond stochasticity, population structure or movement, competition at the within-host level can explain observed resistance frequencies. We compare our simulation results to pneumococcal antibiotic resistance data in the European region using approximate Bayesian computation. Our results demonstrate that ecological competition for co-colonization can explain the variation in co-existence of resistant and susceptible pneumococci observed in the pre-vaccination era. Furthermore, we show that within-host pneumococcal competition can facilitate the maintenance of resistance in the pre-vaccination era. Accounting for these competition-related components of pneumococcal dynamics can improve our understanding of drivers for the emergence and maintenance of antibiotic resistance in pneumococci.

Rising Pneumococcal Antibiotic Resistance in the Post-13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Era in Pediatric Isolates From a Primary Care Setting

BACKGROUND

Antibiotic-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae strains may cause infections that fail to respond to antimicrobial therapy. Results reported from hospitalized patients with invasive, bacteremic infections may not be the same as those observed in a primary care setting where young children receive care for noninvasive infections. Young children experience the highest burden of pneumococcal disease. The aim of this study was to determine the antibiotic susceptibility of S. pneumoniae strains isolated from children in a primary care setting in the post-13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) era.

METHODS

This was a prospective collection of 1201 isolates of S. pneumoniae from 2006 through 2016 in a primary care setting. Antibiotic susceptibility testing to 16 different antibiotics of 10 classes was performed. Participants were children aged 6-36 months. Nasopharyngeal swabs were obtained from patients during acute otitis media (AOM) visits and routine healthy visits. Middle ear fluid was obtained by tympanocentesis.

RESULTS

After introduction of PCV13, antibiotic susceptibility of pneumococci, especially to penicillin, initially improved largely due to disappearance of serotype 19A, included in PCV13. However, beginning in 2013, antibiotic susceptibility among pneumococcal strains began decreasing due to new serotypes not included in PCV13. In addition to reduced susceptibility to penicillin, the most recent isolates show reduced susceptibility to third-generation cephalosporins, fluoroquinolones, and carbapenems, antibiotics commonly used to treat life-threatening, invasive pneumococcal diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

In recent years, pneumococcal nasopharyngeal and AOM isolates from children exhibit reduced susceptibility to penicillin, third-generation cephalosporin, fluoroquinolone, and carbapenem antibiotics. The new strains have a different profile of resistance compared to the pre-PCV13 era.

The role of "spillover" in antibiotic resistance

Antibiotic use is a key driver of antibiotic resistance. Understanding the quantitative association between antibiotic use and resulting resistance is important for predicting future rates of antibiotic resistance and for designing antibiotic stewardship policy. However, the use-resistance association is complicated by "spillover," in which one population's level of antibiotic use affects another population's level of resistance via the transmission of bacteria between those populations. Spillover is known to have effects at the level of families and hospitals, but it is unclear if spillover is relevant at larger scales. We used mathematical modeling and analysis of observational data to address this question. First, we used dynamical models of antibiotic resistance to predict the effects of spillover. Whereas populations completely isolated from one another do not experience any spillover, we found that if even 1% of interactions are between populations, then spillover may have large consequences: The effect of a change in antibiotic use in one population on antibiotic resistance in that population could be reduced by as much as 50%. Then, we quantified spillover in observational antibiotic use and resistance data from US states and European countries for three pathogen-antibiotic combinations, finding that increased interactions between populations were associated with smaller differences in antibiotic resistance between those populations. Thus, spillover may have an important impact at the level of states and countries, which has ramifications for predicting the future of antibiotic resistance, designing antibiotic resistance stewardship policy, and interpreting stewardship interventions.

Predicting the future distribution of antibiotic resistance using time series forecasting and geospatial modelling

Background: Increasing antibiotic resistance in a location may be mitigated by changes in treatment policy, or interventions to limit transmission of resistant bacteria. Therefore, accurate forecasting of the distribution of antibiotic resistance could be advantageous. Two previously published studies addressed this, but neither study compared alternative forecasting algorithms or considered spatial patterns of resistance spread. Methods: We analysed data describing the annual prevalence of antibiotic resistance per country in Europe from 2012 – 2016, and the quarterly prevalence of antibiotic resistance per clinical commissioning group in England from 2015 – 2018. We combined these with data on rates of possible covariates of resistance. These data were used to compare the previously published forecasting models, with other commonly used forecasting models, including one geospatial model. Covariates were incorporated into the geospatial model to assess their relationship with antibiotic resistance. Results: For the European data, which was recorded on a coarse spatiotemporal scale, a naïve forecasting model was consistently the most accurate of any of the forecasting models tested. The geospatial model did not improve on this accuracy. However, it did provide some evidence that antibiotic consumption can partially explain the distribution of resistance. The English data were aggregated at a finer scale, and expected-trend-seasonal (ETS) forecasts were the most accurate. The geospatial model did not significantly improve upon the median accuracy of the ETS model, but it appeared to be less sensitive to noise in the data, and provided evidence that rates of antibiotic prescription and bacteraemia are correlated with resistance. Conclusion: Annual, national-level surveillance data appears to be insufficient for fitting accurate antibiotic resistance forecasting models, but there is evidence that data collected at a finer spatiotemporal scale could be used to improve forecast accuracy. Additionally, incorporating antibiotic prescription or consumption data into the model could improve the predictive accuracy.

On the probability of strain invasion in endemic settings: Accounting for individual heterogeneity and control in multi-strain dynamics

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Endemic infection can insulate host populations from invasion by mutant variants.

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The timing of control implementation strongly influences its efficacy.

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Controls that exacerbate host heterogeneity outperform those that curtail it.

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Differential control can facilitate strain invasion and eventual replacement.

Pathogen evolution is an imminent threat to global health that has warranted, and duly received, considerable attention within the medical, microbiological and modelling communities. Outbreaks of new pathogens are often ignited by the emergence and transmission of mutant variants descended from wild-type strains circulating in the community. In this work we investigate the stochastic dynamics of the emergence of a novel disease strain, introduced into a population in which it must compete with an existing endemic strain. In analogy with past work on single-strain epidemic outbreaks, we apply a branching process approximation to calculate the probability that the new strain becomes established. As expected, a critical determinant of the survival prospects of any invading strain is the magnitude of its reproduction number relative to that of the background endemic strain. Whilst in most circumstances this ratio must exceed unity in order for invasion to be viable, we show that differential control scenarios can lead to less-fit novel strains invading populations hosting a fitter endemic one. This analysis and the accompanying findings will inform our understanding of the mechanisms that have led to past instances of successful strain invasion, and provide valuable lessons for thwarting future drug-resistant strain incursions.

Mathematical modelling for antibiotic resistance control policy: do we know enough?

BACKGROUND

Antibiotics remain the cornerstone of modern medicine. Yet there exists an inherent dilemma in their use: we are able to prevent harm by administering antibiotic treatment as necessary to both humans and animals, but we must be mindful of limiting the spread of resistance and safeguarding the efficacy of antibiotics for current and future generations. Policies that strike the right balance must be informed by a transparent rationale that relies on a robust evidence base.

MAIN TEXT

One way to generate the evidence base needed to inform policies for managing antibiotic resistance is by using mathematical models. These models can distil the key drivers of the dynamics of resistance transmission from complex infection and evolutionary processes, as well as predict likely responses to policy change in silico. Here, we ask whether we know enough about antibiotic resistance for mathematical modelling to robustly and effectively inform policy. We consider in turn the challenges associated with capturing antibiotic resistance evolution using mathematical models, and with translating mathematical modelling evidence into policy.

CONCLUSIONS

We suggest that in spite of promising advances, we lack a complete understanding of key principles. From this we advocate for priority areas of future empirical and theoretical research.

Azithromycin Susceptibility Among Neisseria gonorrhoeae Isolates and Seasonal Macrolide Use

Rising azithromycin nonsusceptibility among Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates threatens current treatment recommendations, but the cause of this rise is not well understood. We performed an ecological study of seasonal patterns in macrolide use and azithromycin resistance in N. gonorrhoeae, finding that population-wide macrolide use is associated with increased azithromycin nonsusceptibility. These results, indicative of bystander selection, have implications for antibiotic prescribing guidelines.

The evolution of antibiotic resistance in a structured host population

The evolution of antibiotic resistance in opportunistic pathogens such as Streptococcus pneumoniae, Escherichia coli or Staphylococcus aureus is a major public health problem, as infection with resistant strains leads to prolonged hospital stay and increased risk of death. Here, we develop a new model of the evolution of antibiotic resistance in a commensal bacterial population adapting to a heterogeneous host population composed of untreated and treated hosts, and structured in different host classes with different antibiotic use. Examples of host classes include age groups and geographic locations. Explicitly modelling the antibiotic treatment reveals that the emergence of a resistant strain is favoured by more frequent but shorter antibiotic courses, and by higher transmission rates. In addition, in a structured host population, localized transmission in host classes promotes both local adaptation of the bacterial population and the global maintenance of coexistence between sensitive and resistant strains. When transmission rates are heterogeneous across host classes, resistant strains evolve more readily in core groups of transmission. These findings have implications for the better management of antibiotic resistance: reducing the rate at which individuals receive antibiotics is more effective to reduce resistance than reducing the duration of treatment. Reducing the rate of treatment in a targeted class of the host population allows greater reduction in resistance, but determining which class to target is difficult in practice.

Within-host dynamics shape antibiotic resistance in commensal bacteria

The spread of antibiotic resistance, a major threat to human health, is poorly understood. Simple population-level models of bacterial transmission predict that above a certain rate of antibiotic consumption in a population, resistant bacteria should completely eliminate non-resistant strains, while below this threshold they should be unable to persist at all. This prediction stands at odds with empirical evidence showing that resistant and non-resistant strains coexist stably over a wide range of antibiotic consumption rates. Not knowing what drives this long-term coexistence is a barrier to developing evidence-based strategies for managing the spread of resistance. Here, we argue that competition between resistant and sensitive pathogens within individual hosts gives resistant pathogens a relative fitness benefit when they are rare, promoting coexistence between strains at the population level. To test this hypothesis, we embed mechanistically explicit within-host dynamics in a structurally neutral pathogen transmission model. Doing so allows us to reproduce patterns of resistance observed in the opportunistic pathogens Escherichia coli and Streptococcus pneumoniae across European countries and to identify factors that may shape resistance evolution in bacteria by modulating the intensity and outcomes of within-host competition.

Evolutionary epidemiology models to predict the dynamics of antibiotic resistance

The evolution of resistance to antibiotics is a major public health problem and an example of rapid adaptation under natural selection by antibiotics. The dynamics of antibiotic resistance within and between hosts can be understood in the light of mathematical models that describe the epidemiology and evolution of the bacterial population. "Between-host" models describe the spread of resistance in the host community, and in more specific settings such as hospitalized hosts (treated by antibiotics at a high rate), or farm animals. These models make predictions on the best strategies to limit the spread of resistance, such as reducing transmission or adapting the prescription of several antibiotics. Models can be fitted to epidemiological data in the context of intensive care units or hospitals to predict the impact of interventions on resistance. It has proven harder to explain the dynamics of resistance in the community at large, in particular because models often do not reproduce the observed coexistence of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains. "Within-host" models describe the evolution of resistance within the treated host. They show that the risk of resistance emergence is maximal at an intermediate antibiotic dose, and some models successfully explain experimental data. New models that include the complex host population structure, the interaction between resistance-determining loci and other loci, or integrating the within- and between-host levels will allow better interpretation of epidemiological and genomic data from common pathogens and better prediction of the evolution of resistance.