Subtropical thermal variation supports persistence of corals but limits productivity of coral reefs

Coral assemblages at higher latitudes favor short-term potential over long-term performance

The persistent exposure of coral assemblages to more variable abiotic regimes is assumed to augment their resilience to future climatic variability. Yet, while the determinants of coral population resilience across species remain unknown, we are unable to predict the winners and losers across reef ecosystems exposed to increasingly variable conditions. Using annual surveys of 3171 coral individuals across Australia and Japan (2016-2019), we explore spatial variation across the short- and long-term dynamics of competitive, stress-tolerant, and weedy assemblages to evaluate how abiotic variability mediates the structural composition of coral assemblages. We illustrate how, by promoting short-term potential over long-term performance, coral assemblages can reduce their vulnerability to stochastic environments. However, compared to stress-tolerant, and weedy assemblages, competitive coral taxa display a reduced capacity for elevating their short-term potential. Accordingly, future climatic shifts threaten the structural complexity of coral assemblages in variable environments, emulating the degradation expected across global tropical reefs.

Highly conserved thermal performance strategies may limit adaptive potential in corals

Increasing seawater temperatures are expected to have profound consequences for reef-building corals' physiology. Understanding how demography changes in response to chronic exposure to warming will help forecast how coral communities will respond to climate change. Here, we measure growth rates of coral fragments of four common species, while exposing them to temperatures ranging from 19°C to 31°C for one month to calibrate their thermal-performance curves (TPCs). Our results show that, while there are contrasting differences between species, the shape of the TPCs was remarkably consistent among individuals of the same species. The low variation in thermal sensitivity within species may imply a reduced capacity for rapid adaptive responses to future changes in thermal regimes. Additionally, interspecific differences in thermal responses show a negative relationship between maximum growth and thermal optima, contradicting expectations derived from the classic 'warmer-is-better' hypothesis. Among species, there was a trade-off between current and future growth, whereby most species perform well under current thermal regimes but are susceptible to future increases in temperature. Increases in water temperature with climate change are likely to reduce growth rates, further hampering future coral reef recovery rates and potentially altering community composition.

Physiological responses and adjustments of corals to strong seasonal temperature variations (20-28°C)

Temperature is a key driver of metabolic rates. So far, we know little about potential physiological adjustments of subtropical corals to seasonal temperature changes (>8°) that substantially exceed temperature fluctuation experienced by their counterparts in the tropics. This study investigated the effect of temperature reductions on Montastrea cavernosa and Porites astreoides in Bermuda (32°N; SST: ∼19-29°C) over 5 weeks applying the following treatments: (i) constant control temperature at 28°C, and (ii) temperature reduction (0.5 °C/day) followed by constant temperature (20 days; acclimatization period) at 24 °C and (iii) at 20 °C. Both species decreased photosynthesis and respiration during temperature reduction as expected, which continued to decrease during the acclimatization period, indicating adjustment to a low energy turnover rather than thermal compensation. Trajectories of physiological adjustments and level of thermal compensation, however, differed between species: M. cavernosa zooxanthellae metrics showed a strong initial response to temperature reduction, followed by a return to close to control values during the acclimatization period, reflecting a high physiological flexibility and low thermal compensation. P. astreoides zooxanthellae, in contrast, showed no initial response, but an increase in pigment concentration zooxanthellae-1 and similar photosynthesis rates at 24° and 20°C at the end of the experiment, indicating low acute thermal sensitivity and the ability for thermal compensation at the lowest temperature. Respiration decreased more strongly than photosynthesis leading to significant build-up of biomass in both species (energy reserves). Results are important in the light of potential poleward migration of corals and of potential latitudinal and species-specific differences in coral thermal tolerance.

Factors Limiting the Range Extension of Corals into High-Latitude Reef Regions

Reef-building corals show a marked decrease in total species richness from the tropics to high latitude regions. Several hypotheses have been proposed to account for this pattern in the context of abiotic and biotic factors, including temperature thresholds, light limitation, aragonite saturation, nutrient or sediment loads, larval dispersal constraints, competition with macro-algae or other invertebrates, and availability of suitable settlement cues or micro-algal symbionts. Surprisingly, there is a paucity of data supporting several of these hypotheses. Given the immense pressures faced by corals in the Anthropocene, it is critical to understand the factors limiting their distribution in order to predict potential range expansions and the role that high latitude reefs can play as refuges from climate change. This review examines these factors and outlines critical research areas to address knowledge gaps in our understanding of light/temperature interactions, coral-Symbiodiniaceae associations, settlement cues, and competition in high latitude reefs.

Trophic strategy and bleaching resistance in reef-building corals

Ocean warming increases the incidence of coral bleaching, which reduces or eliminates the nutrition corals receive from their algal symbionts, often resulting in widespread mortality. In contrast to extensive knowledge on the thermal tolerance of coral-associated symbionts, the role of the coral host in bleaching patterns across species is poorly understood. Here, we applied a Bayesian analysis of carbon and nitrogen stable isotope data to determine the trophic niche overlap between corals and their symbionts and propose benchmark values that define autotrophy, heterotrophy, and mixotrophy. The amount of overlap between coral and symbiont niche was negatively correlated with polyp size and bleaching resistance. Our results indicated that as oceans warm, autotrophic corals lose their competitive advantage and thus are the first to disappear from coral reefs.

Subtropical thermal variation supports persistence of corals but limits productivity of coral reefs

Concomitant to the decline of tropical corals caused by increasing global sea temperatures is the potential removal of barriers to species range expansions into subtropical and temperate habitats. In these habitats, species must tolerate lower annual mean temperature, wider annual temperature ranges and lower minimum temperatures. To understand ecophysiological traits that will impact geographical range boundaries, we monitored populations of five coral species within a marginal habitat and used a year of in situ measures to model thermal performance of vital host, symbiont and holobiont physiology. Metabolic responses to temperature revealed two acclimatization strategies: peak productivity occurring at annual midpoint temperatures (4-6°C lower than tropical counterparts), or at annual maxima. Modelled relationships between temperature and P:R were compared to a year of daily subtropical sea temperatures and revealed that the relatively short time spent at any one temperature, limited optimal performance of all strategies to approximately half the days of the year. Thus, while subtropical corals can adjust their physiology to persist through seasonal lows, seasonal variation seems to be the key factor limiting coral productivity. This constraint on rapid reef accretion within subtropical environments provides insight into the global distribution of future coral reefs and their ecosystem services.