Impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by bottom-up and top-down approaches

The decline in tropical land carbon sink drove high atmospheric CO2 growth rate in 2023

Atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR), reflecting the carbon balance between anthropogenic emissions and net uptake from land and ocean, largely determines the magnitude and speed of global warming. The CGR at Mauna Loa Baseline Observatory reached a record high in 2023. We quantified major components of the global carbon balance for 2023, by developing a framework that integrated fossil fuel CO2 emissions data and an atmospheric inversion from the Global ObservatioN-based system for monitoring Greenhouse GAses (GONGGA) with two artificial intelligence (AI) models derived from dynamic global vegetation models. We attributed the record high CGR increase in 2023 compared to 2022 primarily to the large decline in land carbon sink (1803 ± 197 TgC year-1), with minor contributions from a small reduction in ocean carbon sink (184 TgC year-1) and a slight increase in fossil fuel emissions (24 TgC year-1). At least 78% of the global decline in land carbon sink was contributed by the decline in tropical sink, with GONGGA inversion (1354 TgC year-1) and AI simulations (1578 ± 666 TgC year-1) showing similar declines in the tropics. We further linked this tropical decline to the detrimental impact of El Niño-induced anomalous warming and drying on vegetation productivity in water-limited Sahel and southern Africa. Our successful attribution of CGR increase within a framework combining atmospheric inversion and AI simulations enabled near-real-time tracking of the global carbon budget, which had a one-year reporting lag.

Enhanced global carbon cycle sensitivity to tropical temperature linked to internal climate variability

The sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 growth rate to tropical temperature (γT) has almost doubled between 1959 and 2011, a trend that has been linked to increasing drought in the tropics. However, γT has declined since then. Understanding whether these variations in γT reflect forced changes or internal climate variability in the carbon cycle is crucial for future climate projections. We show that doubling sensitivity events can arise in simulations by Earth system models with perturbed initial conditions but are likely explained by internal climate variability. We show that the doubling sensitivity event is associated with the occurrence of a few, but very strong, El Niño events, such as 1982/83 and 1997/98. Such extreme events result in concurrent carbon release by tropical and extratropical ecosystems, increasing the variance of the global land carbon sink and its apparent sensitivity to tropical temperature. Our results imply that the doubling sensitivity does not necessarily indicate a change in carbon cycle response to climate change.

Tropical ocean teleconnections with gross primary productivity of monsoon-Asia

The intricate oceanic climate interactions with terrestrial primary production of Asian ecosystems exert crucial social-economical-environmental repercussions. Yet, a holistic understanding of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the gross primary productivity (GPP) variations of monsoon-Asia remains constrained. This study provides a statistical framework demonstrating how SST perturbations in the tropics influence GPP fluctuations in monsoon-Asia by modulating hydrothermal conditions of different climate system components. Observation evidence explicitly illustrated the characteristic anomalous SST signatures of positive and negative GPP anomalies in South and Southeast Asia during June-August. The SST anomalies of the central-eastern tropical Pacific showed a robust negative impact on the GPP variability of South-Asia. The GPP alterations in maritime-Southeast-Asia exhibited strong connections with SST anomalies of the western Pacific (positive) and eastern equatorial Pacific (negative). The oceanic signals in the GPP variability of South-Asia and maritime-Southeast-Asia mirrored canonical El Niño and La Niña patterns. The detected SST-GPP link is feasible through large-scale atmospheric circulation variability and the consequent regional modulation of heat and moisture fluxes. The anomalous strengthening (weakening) of Walker cell enhances (reduces) water availability to plants for photosynthesis during the La Niña (El Niño) phase of the ENSO cycle and thus elevates (lowers) GPP in South-Asia and Maritime-southeast-Asia. In contrast, the enhanced GPP anomaly in mainland-Southeast-Asia depicts signs of canonical La Niña and Indian Ocean subtropical dipole (IOSD) teleconnections. The positive impact of IOSD was through the modulation of the Mascarene High and the consequent impact on the monsoon. Meanwhile, decreased GPP bears the imprint of El Niño Modoki and warm tropical Indian Ocean SSTs. The atmospheric teleconnections demonstrated the delayed impact of El Niño Modoki on GPP variability through the Indian Ocean capacitor effect. Our findings could be instrumental in forecasting the probable effects on vegetation growth in monsoon-Asia associated with high-frequency tropical oceanic changes.

Ongoing CO2 monitoring verify CO2 emissions and sinks in China during 2018-2021

Accurate estimating CO2 emissions and sinks is crucial in achieving carbon neutrality in China. However, CO2 emissions from bottom-up inventories are uncertain at regional scales and lack independent verification from atmospheric perspectives. Here we integrated 39 high-precision CO2 stations in China to top-down invert emission-sink variations at 45 km × 45 km and achieved a full range of inventories verification. The results show that China's CO2 emissions are 15% higher than those of five bottom-up inventories, to an annual total of 3.40 Pg C a-1 for 2018-2021. After deducting human and livestock respiration, the annual CO2 emissions were 3.13 Pg C a-1 (11.48 Pg CO2 a-1). The annual increase in emissions slowed from 3.7% in 2019 to 1.1% in 2020 and resumed growth to 4.0% in 2021, consistent with observed CO2 growth rates in China. China's land CO2 sink, deducting farmland sinks and lateral fluxes, was 0.57 Pg C a-1 (2.09 Pg CO2 a-1) for 2018-2021 (higher than most global inverse models), accounting for ∼16.9% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The land sink in China decreased by -19.3% in 2019 due to a weak El Niño event and increased by 3.2% in 2020 and 13.7% in 2021. It is worth noting that inverse CO2 emissions and sinks in western China still face large uncertainty due to limited CO2 monitoring. Overall, our top-down estimates demonstrate spatiotemporal variations in CO2 emissions and sinks from atmospheric perspectives and highlight challenges for different provinces in achieving 2060 carbon neutrality with verified estimates.

Tracking 21st century anthropogenic and natural carbon fluxes through model-data integration

Monitoring the implementation of emission commitments under the Paris agreement relies on accurate estimates of terrestrial carbon fluxes. Here, we assimilate a 21^st century observation-based time series of woody vegetation carbon densities into a bookkeeping model (BKM). This approach allows us to disentangle the observation-based carbon fluxes by terrestrial woody vegetation into anthropogenic and environmental contributions. Estimated emissions (from land-use and land cover changes) between 2000 and 2019 amount to 1.4 PgC yr⁻¹, reducing the difference to other carbon cycle model estimates by up to 88% compared to previous estimates with the BKM (without the data assimilation). Our estimates suggest that the global woody vegetation carbon sink due to environmental processes (1.5 PgC yr⁻¹) is weaker and more susceptible to interannual variations and extreme events than estimated by state-of-the-art process-based carbon cycle models. These findings highlight the need to advance model-data integration to improve estimates of the terrestrial carbon cycle under the Global Stocktake.

Accurate estimates of carbon fluxes are important to our understanding of the carbon cycle. Here, via model-data integration, the authors disentangle anthropogenic and environmental carbon flux contributions of terrestrial woody vegetation, and find that environmental processes are weaker and more susceptible to interannual variations and extreme events in the 21st century than previously estimated.

Increased tropical vegetation respiration is dually induced by El Niño and upper atmospheric warm anomalies

Tropical vegetation respiration (TVR) is affected by extreme climate change. As it is very difficult to directly observe TVR, our understanding of the land-ocean-atmosphere carbon cycle, and particularly the regulatory effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on TVR and the land-atmosphere carbon balance, is very limited. Therefore, usingModerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products and meteorological data, we investigated the response of TVR to changes in ENSO during 2000-2015. The influence of El Niño on TVR was approximately 10.8% higher than that of La Niña. During El Niño years, a significant and anomalous increase in thermal measures related to TVR and ENSO and a significant and anomalous decrease in related hydrological measures favor the formation of warmer and drier climate conditions. Furthermore, the zonal distributions of air temperature and vertical velocity at 200-1000 hPa during El Niño years show that a stronger atmospheric inversion over tropical regions causes an increase in the surface temperature. Moreover, anomalous atmospheric subsidence inhibits the upward transport of water vapor, leading to a decrease in the cloud formation probability and reduced precipitation. In summary, increased surface temperatures caused by increased solar radiation and enhanced atmospheric inversion and decreased precipitation cause warmer and drier climate conditions, which forces TVR to increase. As TVR constitutes the key node of the land-atmosphere‑carbon cycle process, we focus on TVR and its close linkage with ENSO events and further establish a knowledge framework for understanding the land-atmosphere-ocean carbon cycle. This study deepens our understanding of not only the mechanism of the land-atmosphere carbon balance but also the ocean-induced terrestrial ecosystem processes spurred by ENSO-involved climate change. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Vegetation respiration regulates the carbon balance of the land and atmosphere. As it is very difficult to directly observe vegetation respiration, our understanding of the land-ocean-atmosphere carbon cycle involved and the roles of vegetation respiration and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in regulating the land-atmosphere carbon balance is very limited. Therefore, using MODIS products and meteorological data, we investigated the response of tropical vegetation respiration to changes in ENSO during 2000-2015. We found that during El Niño years, warmer and drier climate conditions over tropical regions increased vegetation respiration. Exacerbating the warmer and drier climate conditions, upper atmospheric warm anomalies further caused a remarkable increase in tropical vegetation respiration. Based on the land-atmosphere‑carbon cycle process, we establish a knowledge framework for understanding the land-atmosphere-ocean carbon cycle. This knowledge deepens our understanding of not only the mechanism of the land-atmosphere carbon balance but also the ocean-induced terrestrial ecosystem processes spurred by ENSO-involved climate change.

Global nature run data with realistic high-resolution carbon weather for the year of the Paris Agreement

The CO₂ Human Emissions project has generated realistic high-resolution 9 km global simulations for atmospheric carbon tracers referred to as nature runs to foster carbon-cycle research applications with current and planned satellite missions, as well as the surge of in situ observations. Realistic atmospheric CO₂, CH₄ and CO fields can provide a reference for assessing the impact of proposed designs of new satellites and in situ networks and to study atmospheric variability of the tracers modulated by the weather. The simulations spanning 2015 are based on the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service forecasts at the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, with improvements in various model components and input data such as anthropogenic emissions, in preparation of a CO₂ Monitoring and Verification Support system. The relative contribution of different emissions and natural fluxes towards observed atmospheric variability is diagnosed by additional tagged tracers in the simulations. The evaluation of such high-resolution model simulations can be used to identify model deficiencies and guide further model improvements.

Measurement(s)	atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane and carbon monoxide
Technology Type(s)	numerical simulation
Factor Type(s)	None
Sample Characteristic - Organism	long-lived greenhouse gases
Sample Characteristic - Environment	atmosphere
Sample Characteristic - Location	global atmosphere

Interannual and Seasonal Drivers of Carbon Cycle Variability Represented by the Community Earth System Model (CESM2)

Earth system models are intended to make long-term projections, but they can be evaluated at interannual and seasonal time scales. Although the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) showed improvements in a number of terrestrial carbon cycle benchmarks, relative to its predecessor, our analysis suggests that the interannual variability (IAV) in net terrestrial carbon fluxes did not show similar improvements. The model simulated low IAV of net ecosystem production (NEP), resulting in a weaker than observed sensitivity of the carbon cycle to climate variability. Low IAV in net fluxes likely resulted from low variability in gross primary productivity (GPP)-especially in the tropics-and a high covariation between GPP and ecosystem respiration. Although lower than observed, the IAV of NEP had significant climate sensitivities, with positive NEP anomalies associated with warmer and drier conditions in high latitudes, and with wetter and cooler conditions in mid and low latitudes. We identified two dominant modes of seasonal variability in carbon cycle flux anomalies in our fully coupled CESM2 simulations that are characterized by seasonal amplification and redistribution of ecosystem fluxes. Seasonal amplification of net and gross carbon fluxes showed climate sensitivities mirroring those of annual fluxes. Seasonal redistribution of carbon fluxes is initiated by springtime temperature anomalies, but subsequently negative feedbacks in soil moisture during the summer and fall result in net annual carbon losses from land. These modes of variability are also seen in satellite proxies of GPP, suggesting that CESM2 appropriately represents regional sensitivities of photosynthesis to climate variability on seasonal time scales.

Unusual characteristics of the carbon cycle during the 2015-2016 El Niño

The 2015-2016 El Niño was one of the strongest on record, but its influence on the carbon balance is less clear. Using Northern Hemisphere atmospheric CO₂ observations, we found both detrended atmospheric CO₂ growth rate (CGR) and CO₂ seasonal-cycle amplitude (SCA) of 2015-2016 were much higher than that of other El Niño events. The simultaneous high CGR and SCA were unusual, because our analysis of long-term CO₂ observations at Mauna Loa revealed a significantly negative correlation between CGR and SCA. Atmospheric inversions and terrestrial ecosystem models indicate strong northern land carbon uptake during spring but substantially reduced carbon uptake (or high emissions) during early autumn, which amplified SCA but also resulted in a small anomaly in annual carbon uptake of northern ecosystems in 2015-2016. This negative ecosystem carbon uptake anomaly in early autumn was primarily due to soil water deficits and more litter decomposition caused by enhanced spring productivity. Our study demonstrates a decoupling between seasonality and annual carbon cycle balance in northern ecosystems over 2015-2016, which is unprecedented in the past five decades of El Niño events.

Resistance of African tropical forests to an extreme climate anomaly

The responses of tropical forests to environmental change are critical uncertainties in predicting the future impacts of climate change. The positive phase of the 2015-2016 El Niño Southern Oscillation resulted in unprecedented heat and low precipitation in the tropics with substantial impacts on the global carbon cycle. The role of African tropical forests is uncertain as their responses to short-term drought and temperature anomalies have yet to be determined using on-the-ground measurements. African tropical forests may be particularly sensitive because they exist in relatively dry conditions compared with Amazonian or Asian forests, or they may be more resistant because of an abundance of drought-adapted species. Here, we report responses of structurally intact old-growth lowland tropical forests inventoried within the African Tropical Rainforest Observatory Network (AfriTRON). We use 100 long-term inventory plots from six countries each measured at least twice prior to and once following the 2015-2016 El Niño event. These plots experienced the highest temperatures and driest conditions on record. The record temperature did not significantly reduce carbon gains from tree growth or significantly increase carbon losses from tree mortality, but the record drought did significantly decrease net carbon uptake. Overall, the long-term biomass increase of these forests was reduced due to the El Niño event, but these plots remained a live biomass carbon sink (0.51 ± 0.40 Mg C ha-1 y-1) despite extreme environmental conditions. Our analyses, while limited to African tropical forests, suggest they may be more resistant to climatic extremes than Amazonian and Asian forests.

Causes of slowing-down seasonal CO2 amplitude at Mauna Loa

Changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO₂ (SCA) in the northern hemisphere is an emerging carbon cycle property. Mauna Loa (MLO) station (20°N, 156°W), which has the longest continuous northern hemisphere CO₂ record, shows an increasing SCA before the 1980s (p < .01), followed by no significant change thereafter. We analyzed the potential driving factors of SCA slowing-down, with an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) coupled with an atmospheric transport model. We found that slowing-down of SCA at MLO is primarily explained by response of net biome productivity (NBP) to climate change, and by changes in atmospheric circulations. Through NBP, climate change increases SCA at MLO before the 1980s and decreases it afterwards. The effect of climate change on the slowing-down of SCA at MLO is mainly exerted by intensified drought stress acting to offset the acceleration driven by CO₂ fertilization. This challenges the view that CO₂ fertilization is the dominant cause of emergent SCA trends at northern sites south of 40°N. The contribution of agricultural intensification on the deceleration of SCA at MLO was elusive according to land-atmosphere CO₂ flux estimated by DGVMs and atmospheric inversions. Our results also show the necessity to adequately account for changing circulation patterns in understanding carbon cycle dynamics observed from atmospheric observations and in using these observations to benchmark DGVMs.

Direct and seasonal legacy effects of the 2018 heat wave and drought on European ecosystem productivity

In summer 2018, central and northern Europe were stricken by extreme drought and heat (DH2018). The DH2018 differed from previous events in being preceded by extreme spring warming and brightening, but moderate rainfall deficits, yet registering the fastest transition between wet winter conditions and extreme summer drought. Using 11 vegetation models, we show that spring conditions promoted increased vegetation growth, which, in turn, contributed to fast soil moisture depletion, amplifying the summer drought. We find regional asymmetries in summer ecosystem carbon fluxes: increased (reduced) sink in the northern (southern) areas affected by drought. These asymmetries can be explained by distinct legacy effects of spring growth and of water-use efficiency dynamics mediated by vegetation composition, rather than by distinct ecosystem responses to summer heat/drought. The asymmetries in carbon and water exchanges during spring and summer 2018 suggest that future land-management strategies could influence patterns of summer heat waves and droughts under long-term warming.

Tropical forests did not recover from the strong 2015-2016 El Niño event

Severe drought and extreme heat associated with the 2015-2016 El Niño event have led to large carbon emissions from the tropical vegetation to the atmosphere. With the return to normal climatic conditions in 2017, tropical forest aboveground carbon (AGC) stocks are expected to partly recover due to increased productivity, but the intensity and spatial distribution of this recovery are unknown. We used low-frequency microwave satellite data (L-VOD) to feature precise monitoring of AGC changes and show that the AGC recovery of tropical ecosystems was slow and that by the end of 2017, AGC had not reached predrought levels of 2014. From 2014 to 2017, tropical AGC stocks decreased by1.3 1.2 1.5 Pg C due to persistent AGC losses in Africa (- 0.9 - 1.1 - 0.8 Pg C) and America (- 0.5 - 0.6 - 0.4 Pg C). Pantropically, drylands recovered their carbon stocks to pre-El Niño levels, but African and American humid forests did not, suggesting carryover effects from enhanced forest mortality.

Satellite-observed pantropical carbon dynamics

Changes in terrestrial tropical carbon stocks have an important role in the global carbon budget. However, current observational tools do not allow accurate and large-scale monitoring of the spatial distribution and dynamics of carbon stocks¹. Here, we used low-frequency L-band passive microwave observations to compute a direct and spatially explicit quantification of annual aboveground carbon (AGC) fluxes and show that the tropical net AGC budget was approximately in balance during 2010 to 2017, the net budget being composed of gross losses of -2.86 PgC yr^-1 offset by gross gains of -2.97 PgC yr^-1 between continents. Large interannual and spatial fluctuations of tropical AGC were quantified during the wet 2011 La Niña year and throughout the extreme dry and warm 2015-2016 El Niño episode. These interannual fluctuations, controlled predominantly by semiarid biomes, were shown to be closely related to independent global atmospheric CO₂ growth-rate anomalies (Pearson's r = 0.86), highlighting the pivotal role of tropical AGC in the global carbon budget.