The ghost of hosts past: impacts of host extinction on parasite specificity

Host body size, not host population size, predicts genome-wide effective population size of parasites

The effective population size (N_e) of an organism is expected to be generally proportional to the total number of individuals in a population. In parasites, we might expect the effective population size to be proportional to host population size and host body size, because both are expected to increase the number of parasite individuals. However, among other factors, parasite populations are sometimes so extremely subdivided that high levels of inbreeding may distort these predicted relationships. Here, we used whole-genome sequence data from dove parasites (71 feather louse species of the genus Columbicola) and phylogenetic comparative methods to study the relationship between parasite effective population size and host population size and body size. We found that parasite effective population size is largely explained by host body size but not host population size. These results suggest the potential local population size (infrapopulation or deme size) is more predictive of the long-term effective population size of parasites than is the total number of potential parasite infrapopulations (i.e., host individuals).

Trapped in time

Analysis of specimens preserved in amber from the Cretaceous period suggests that nematodes changed their host preference towards insects with a complete metamorphosis more recently.

Mussel parasite richness and risk of extinction

Parasite conservation is important for the maintenance of ecosystem diversity and function. Conserving parasites relies first on understanding parasite biodiversity and second on estimating the extinction risk to that biodiversity. Although steps have been taken independently in both these areas, previous studies have overwhelmingly focused on helminths in vertebrate hosts over broad scales, providing low resolution and excluding a large proportion of possible host and parasite diversity. We estimated both total obligate parasite richness and parasite extinction risk in freshwater mussels (Unionidae and Margaritiferidae) from Europe and the United States to provide a case study for considering parasite conservation in a severely understudied system. We used currently reported host-parasite relationships to extrapolate parasite diversity to all possible mussel hosts and then used the threat levels of those hosts to estimate the extinction risk for both described and undescribed parasites. An estimated 67% of parasite richness in freshwater mussels is undescribed and over 80% of the most host-specific groups (digenean trematodes and ciliates) are undescribed. We estimated that 21% of this total parasite fauna is at immediate risk of extinction, corresponding to 60 unique species, many of which will likely go extinct before being described. Given the important roles parasites play in community structure and function and the strong ecosystem engineering capacities of freshwater mussels, such extinctions are likely to severely affect freshwater ecosystems. Our detailed study of mussel parasites provides compelling evidence for the hidden conservation threat to parasites through extinction cascades and shows parasites are deserving of immediate attention.

Phanerozoic parasitism and marine metazoan diversity: dilution versus amplification

Growing evidence suggests that biodiversity mediates parasite prevalence. We have compiled the first global database on occurrences and prevalence of marine parasitism throughout the Phanerozoic and assess the relationship with biodiversity to test if there is support for amplification or dilution of parasitism at the macroevolutionary scale. Median prevalence values by era are 5% for the Paleozoic, 4% for the Mesozoic, and a significant increase to 10% for the Cenozoic. We calculated period-level shareholder quorum sub-sampled (SQS) estimates of mean sampled diversity, three-timer (3T) origination rates, and 3T extinction rates for the most abundant host clades in the Paleobiology Database to compare to both occurrences of parasitism and the more informative parasite prevalence values. Generalized linear models (GLMs) of parasite occurrences and SQS diversity measures support both the amplification (all taxa pooled, crinoids and blastoids, and molluscs) and dilution hypotheses (arthropods, cnidarians, and bivalves). GLMs of prevalence and SQS diversity measures support the amplification hypothesis (all taxa pooled and molluscs). Though likely scale-dependent, parasitism has increased through the Phanerozoic and clear patterns primarily support the amplification of parasitism with biodiversity in the history of life.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe’.

Forecasting parasite sharing under climate change

Species are shifting their distributions in response to climate change. This geographic reshuffling may result in novel co-occurrences among species, which could lead to unseen biotic interactions, including the exchange of parasites between previously isolated hosts. Identifying potential new host-parasite interactions would improve forecasting of disease emergence and inform proactive disease surveillance. However, accurate predictions of future cross-species disease transmission have been hampered by the lack of a generalized approach and data availability. Here, we propose a framework to predict novel host-parasite interactions based on a combination of niche modelling of future host distributions and parasite sharing models. Using the North American ungulates as a proof of concept, we show this approach has high cross-validation accuracy in over 85% of modelled parasites and find that more than 34% of the host-parasite associations forecasted by our models have already been recorded in the literature. We discuss potential sources of uncertainty and bias that may affect our results and similar forecasting approaches, and propose pathways to generate increasingly accurate predictions. Our results indicate that forecasting parasite sharing in response to shifts in host geographic distributions allow for the identification of regions and taxa most susceptible to emergent pathogens under climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.

Identifying co-phylogenetic hotspots for zoonotic disease

The incidence of zoonotic diseases is increasing worldwide, which makes identifying parasites likely to become zoonotic and hosts likely to harbour zoonotic parasites a critical concern. Prior work indicates that there is a higher risk of zoonotic spillover accruing from closely related hosts and from hosts that are infected with a high phylogenetic diversity of parasites. This suggests that host and parasite evolutionary history may be important drivers of spillover, but identifying whether host-parasite associations are more strongly structured by the host, parasite or both requires co-phylogenetic analyses that combine host-parasite association data with host and parasite phylogenies. Here, we use host-parasite datasets containing associations between helminth taxa and free-range mammals in combination with phylogenetic models to explore whether host, parasite, or both host and parasite evolutionary history influences host-parasite associations. We find that host phylogenetic history is most important for driving patterns of helminth-mammal association, indicating that zoonoses are most likely to come from a host's close relatives. More broadly, our results suggest that co-phylogenetic analyses across broad taxonomic scales can provide a novel perspective for surveying potential emerging infectious diseases. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.