MultiBLUP: improved SNP-based prediction for complex traits

A review of the advances in understanding the genetic basis of spondylarthritis and emerging clinical benefit

Spondyloarthropathies (SpA), including ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and psoriatic arthritis (PsA), have been shown to have a substantial genetic predisposition based on heritability estimates derived from family studies and genome-wide association studies (GWAS). GWAS have uncovered numerous genetic loci associated with susceptibility to SpA, with significant associations to human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes, which are major genetic risk factors for both AS and PsA. Specific loci differentiating PsA from cutaneous-only psoriasis have been identified, though these remain limited. Further research with larger sample sizes is necessary to identify more PsA-specific genetic markers. Current research focuses on translating these genetic insights into clinical applications. For example, polygenic risk scores are showing promise for the classification of disease risk and diagnosis and future research should focus on refining these risk assessment tools to improve clinical outcomes for individuals with SpA. Addressing these challenges will help integrate genetic testing into patients care and impact clinical practice.

Impact of individual level uncertainty of lung cancer polygenic risk score (PRS) on risk stratification

BACKGROUND

Although polygenic risk score (PRS) has emerged as a promising tool for predicting cancer risk from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), the individual-level accuracy of lung cancer PRS and the extent to which its impact on subsequent clinical applications remains largely unexplored.

METHODS

Lung cancer PRSs and confidence/credible interval (CI) were constructed using two statistical approaches for each individual: (1) the weighted sum of 16 GWAS-derived significant SNP loci and the CI through the bootstrapping method (PRS-16-CV) and (2) LDpred2 and the CI through posteriors sampling (PRS-Bayes), among 17,166 lung cancer cases and 12,894 controls with European ancestry from the International Lung Cancer Consortium. Individuals were classified into different genetic risk subgroups based on the relationship between their own PRS mean/PRS CI and the population level threshold.

RESULTS

Considerable variances in PRS point estimates at the individual level were observed for both methods, with an average standard deviation (s.d.) of 0.12 for PRS-16-CV and a much larger s.d. of 0.88 for PRS-Bayes. Using PRS-16-CV, only 25.0% of individuals with PRS point estimates in the lowest decile of PRS and 16.8% in the highest decile have their entire 95% CI fully contained in the lowest and highest decile, respectively, while PRS-Bayes was unable to find any eligible individuals. Only 19% of the individuals were concordantly identified as having high genetic risk (> 90th percentile) using the two PRS estimators. An increased relative risk of lung cancer comparing the highest PRS percentile to the lowest was observed when taking the CI into account (OR = 2.73, 95% CI: 2.12-3.50, P-value = 4.13 × 10-15) compared to using PRS-16-CV mean (OR = 2.23, 95% CI: 1.99-2.49, P-value = 5.70 × 10-46). Improved risk prediction performance with higher AUC was consistently observed in individuals identified by PRS-16-CV CI, and the best performance was achieved by incorporating age, gender, and detailed smoking pack-years (AUC: 0.73, 95% CI = 0.72-0.74).

CONCLUSIONS

Lung cancer PRS estimates using different methods have modest correlations at the individual level, highlighting the importance of considering individual-level uncertainty when evaluating the practical utility of PRS.

Leveraging prior biological knowledge improves prediction of tocochromanols in maize grain

With an essential role in human health, tocochromanols are mostly obtained by consuming seed oils; however, the vitamin E content of the most abundant tocochromanols in maize (Zea mays L.) grain is low. Several large-effect genes with cis-acting variants affecting messenger RNA (mRNA) expression are mostly responsible for tocochromanol variation in maize grain, with other relevant associated quantitative trait loci (QTL) yet to be fully resolved. Leveraging existing genomic and transcriptomic information for maize inbreds could improve prediction when selecting for higher vitamin E content. Here, we first evaluated a multikernel genomic best linear unbiased prediction (MK-GBLUP) approach for modeling known QTL in the prediction of nine tocochromanol grain phenotypes (12-21 QTL per trait) within and between two panels of 1,462 and 242 maize inbred lines. On average, MK-GBLUP models improved predictive abilities by 7.0-13.6% when compared with GBLUP. In a second approach with a subset of 545 lines from the larger panel, the highest average improvement in predictive ability relative to GBLUP was achieved with a multi-trait GBLUP model (15.4%) that had a tocochromanol phenotype and transcript abundances in developing grain for a few large-effect candidate causal genes (1-3 genes per trait) as multiple response variables. Taken together, our study illustrates the enhancement of prediction models when informed by existing biological knowledge pertaining to QTL and candidate causal genes.

The Application of Genetic Risk Scores in Rheumatic Diseases: A Perspective

Modest effect sizes have limited the clinical applicability of genetic associations with rheumatic diseases. Genetic risk scores (GRSs) have emerged as a promising solution to translate genetics into useful tools. In this review, we provide an overview of the recent literature on GRSs in rheumatic diseases. We describe six categories for which GRSs are used: (a) disease (outcome) prediction, (b) genetic commonalities between diseases, (c) disease differentiation, (d) interplay between genetics and environmental factors, (e) heritability and transferability, and (f) detecting causal relationships between traits. In our review of the literature, we identified current lacunas and opportunities for future work. First, the shortage of non-European genetic data restricts the application of many GRSs to European populations. Next, many GRSs are tested in settings enriched for cases that limit the transferability to real life. If intended for clinical application, GRSs are ideally tested in the relevant setting. Finally, there is much to elucidate regarding the co-occurrence of clinical traits to identify shared causal paths and elucidate relationships between the diseases. GRSs are useful instruments for this. Overall, the ever-continuing research on GRSs gives a hopeful outlook into the future of GRSs and indicates significant progress in their potential applications.

Expanded utility of the R package, qgg, with applications within genomic medicine

SUMMARY

Here, we present an expanded utility of the R package qgg for genetic analyses of complex traits and diseases. One of the major updates of the package is, that it now includes Bayesian linear regression modeling procedures, which provide a unified framework for mapping of genetic variants, estimation of heritability and genomic prediction from either individual level data or from genome-wide association study summary data. With this release, the qgg package now provides a wealth of the commonly used methods in analysis of complex traits and diseases, without the need to switch between software and data formats.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

The methodologies are implemented in the publicly available R software package, qgg, using fast and memory efficient algorithms in C++ and is available on CRAN or as a developer version at our GitHub page (https://github.com/psoerensen/qgg). Notes on the implemented statistical genetic models, tutorials and example scripts are available at our GitHub page https://psoerensen.github.io/qgg/.

Bayesian linear mixed model with multiple random effects for prediction analysis on high-dimensional multi-omics data

MOTIVATION

Accurate disease risk prediction is an essential step in the modern quest for precision medicine. While high-dimensional multi-omics data have provided unprecedented data resources for prediction studies, their high-dimensionality and complex inter/intra-relationships have posed significant analytical challenges.

RESULTS

We proposed a two-step Bayesian linear mixed model framework (TBLMM) for risk prediction analysis on multi-omics data. TBLMM models the predictive effects from multi-omics data using a hybrid of the sparsity regression and linear mixed model with multiple random effects. It can resemble the shape of the true effect size distributions and accounts for non-linear, including interaction effects, among multi-omics data via kernel fusion. It infers its parameters via a computationally efficient variational Bayes algorithm. Through extensive simulation studies and the prediction analyses on the positron emission tomography imaging outcomes using data obtained from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, we have demonstrated that TBLMM can consistently outperform the existing method in predicting the risk of complex traits.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

The corresponding R package is available on GitHub (https://github.com/YaluWen/TBLMM).

Bayesian linear mixed model with multiple random effects for family-based genetic studies

Motivation: Family-based study design is one of the popular designs used in genetic research, and the whole-genome sequencing data obtained from family-based studies offer many unique features for risk prediction studies. They can not only provide a more comprehensive view of many complex diseases, but also utilize information in the design to further improve the prediction accuracy. While promising, existing analytical methods often ignore the information embedded in the study design and overlook the predictive effects of rare variants, leading to a prediction model with sub-optimal performance. Results: We proposed a Bayesian linear mixed model for the prediction analysis of sequencing data obtained from family-based studies. Our method can not only capture predictive effects from both common and rare variants, but also easily accommodate various disease model assumptions. It uses information embedded in the study design to form surrogates, where the predictive effects from unmeasured/unknown genetic and environmental risk factors can be modelled. Through extensive simulation studies and the analysis of sequencing data obtained from the Michigan State University Twin Registry study, we have demonstrated that the proposed method outperforms commonly adopted techniques. Availability: R package is available at https://github.com/yhai943/FBLMM.

Association analysis of miRNA-146a and miRNA-499 polymorphisms with rheumatoid arthritis: a case-control and trio-family study

Single nucleotide polymorphism is known to alter the expression and processing of miRNAs leading to a variety of diseases including rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, disagreement is present up to date regarding the association of miRNA-146a and miRNA-499 polymorphisms with RA. The goal of this study was to assess the association of polymorphisms at miRNA-146a and miRNA-499 with the pathogenesis of RA in patients originating from Pakistan. Initially, eleven hundred subjects (1100) comprises of 550 RA patients and 550 healthy controls were investigated in the case-control analysis. Spectrophotometric measurement of lipids and C-reactive protein was used, whereas interleukin-1 receptor associated kinase-1 and TNF-receptor associated factor-6 values were quantified by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Secondly, heritability of susceptible alleles was tested from 70 trio-families. The miRNA-146a rs2910164 and miRNA-499 rs3746444 polymorphisms were genotyped using the polymerase chain reaction followed by restriction digestion. A Significant association of miRNA-146a and miRNA-499 genotypes was observed with RA patients (P < 0.05, respectively). The miRNA-146a rs2910164 G (OR = 1.4, P < 0.05) and miRNA-499 rs3746444 C (OR = 1.6, P < 0.0001) allele was significantly associated with RA in comparison with controls, respectively. Besides, the transmission analysis revealed a significant (P < 0.05) inheritance of rs2910164 G and rs3746444 C allele from parents to affected offspring. The current research concludes that miRNA-146a (rs2910164; C > G) and miRNA-499 (rs3746444; T > C) polymorphisms are linked to RA in the population studied. Furthermore, it was demonstrated for the first time in our high-risk cohort that the rs2910164 G and rs3746444 C allele was strongly related to familial RA.

Allelic variation in transcription factor PtoWRKY68 contributes to drought tolerance in Populus

Drought stress limits woody species productivity and influences tree distribution. However, dissecting the molecular mechanisms that underpin drought responses in forest trees can be challenging due to trait complexity. Here, using a panel of 300 Chinese white poplar (Populus tomentosa) accessions collected from different geographical climatic regions in China, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) on seven drought-related traits and identified PtoWRKY68 as a candidate gene involved in the response to drought stress. A 12-bp insertion and/or deletion and three nonsynonymous variants in the PtoWRKY68 coding sequence categorized natural populations of P. tomentosa into two haplotype groups, PtoWRKY68hap1 and PtoWRKY68hap2. The allelic variation in these two PtoWRKY68 haplotypes conferred differential transcriptional regulatory activities and binding to the promoters of downstream abscisic acid (ABA) efflux and signaling genes. Overexpression of PtoWRKY68hap1 and PtoWRKY68hap2 in Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) ameliorated the drought tolerance of two transgenic lines and increased ABA content by 42.7% and 14.3% compared to wild-type plants, respectively. Notably, PtoWRKY68hap1 (associated with drought tolerance) is ubiquitous in accessions in water-deficient environments, whereas the drought-sensitive allele PtoWRKY68hap2 is widely distributed in well-watered regions, consistent with the trends in local precipitation, suggesting that these alleles correspond to geographical adaptation in Populus. Moreover, quantitative trait loci analysis and an electrophoretic mobility shift assay showed that SHORT VEGETATIVE PHASE (PtoSVP.3) positively regulates the expression of PtoWRKY68 under drought stress. We propose a drought tolerance regulatory module in which PtoWRKY68 modulates ABA signaling and accumulation, providing insight into the genetic basis of drought tolerance in trees. Our findings will facilitate molecular breeding to improve the drought tolerance of forest trees.

Explainable multi-task learning improves the parallel estimation of polygenic risk scores for many diseases through shared genetic basis

Many complex diseases share common genetic determinants and are comorbid in a population. We hypothesized that the co-occurrences of diseases and their overlapping genetic etiology can be exploited to simultaneously improve multiple diseases' polygenic risk scores (PRS). This hypothesis was tested using a multi-task learning (MTL) approach based on an explainable neural network architecture. We found that parallel estimations of the PRS for 17 prevalent cancers in a pan-cancer MTL model were generally more accurate than independent estimations for individual cancers in comparable single-task learning (STL) models. Such performance improvement conferred by positive transfer learning was also observed consistently for 60 prevalent non-cancer diseases in a pan-disease MTL model. Interpretation of the MTL models revealed significant genetic correlations between the important sets of single nucleotide polymorphisms used by the neural network for PRS estimation. This suggested a well-connected network of diseases with shared genetic basis.

Harnessing male germline epigenomics for the genetic improvement in cattle

Sperm is essential for successful artificial insemination in dairy cattle, and its quality can be influenced by both epigenetic modification and epigenetic inheritance. The bovine germline differentiation is characterized by epigenetic reprogramming, while intergenerational and transgenerational epigenetic inheritance can influence the offspring's development through the transmission of epigenetic features to the offspring via the germline. Therefore, the selection of bulls with superior sperm quality for the production and fertility traits requires a better understanding of the epigenetic mechanism and more accurate identifications of epigenetic biomarkers. We have comprehensively reviewed the current progress in the studies of bovine sperm epigenome in terms of both resources and biological discovery in order to provide perspectives on how to harness this valuable information for genetic improvement in the cattle breeding industry.

Improving the accuracy of genomic prediction for meat quality traits using whole genome sequence data in pigs

BACKGROUND

Pork quality can directly affect customer purchase tendency and meat quality traits have become valuable in modern pork production. However, genetic improvement has been slow due to high phenotyping costs. In this study, whole genome sequence (WGS) data was used to evaluate the prediction accuracy of genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) for meat quality in large-scale crossbred commercial pigs.

RESULTS

We produced WGS data (18,695,907 SNPs and 2,106,902 INDELs exceed quality control) from 1,469 sequenced Duroc × (Landrace × Yorkshire) pigs and developed a reference panel for meat quality including meat color score, marbling score, L* (lightness), a* (redness), and b* (yellowness) of genomic prediction. The prediction accuracy was defined as the Pearson correlation coefficient between adjusted phenotypes and genomic estimated breeding values in the validation population. Using different marker density panels derived from WGS data, accuracy differed substantially among meat quality traits, varied from 0.08 to 0.47. Results showed that MultiBLUP outperform GBLUP and yielded accuracy increases ranging from 17.39% to 75%. We optimized the marker density and found medium- and high-density marker panels are beneficial for the estimation of heritability for meat quality. Moreover, we conducted genotype imputation from 50K chip to WGS level in the same population and found average concordance rate to exceed 95% and r² = 0.81.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, estimation of heritability for meat quality traits can benefit from the use of WGS data. This study showed the superiority of using WGS data to genetically improve pork quality in genomic prediction.

The transcriptional risk scores for kidney renal clear cell carcinoma using XGBoost and multiple omics data

Most kidney cancers are kidney renal clear cell carcinoma (KIRC) that is a main cause of cancer-related deaths. Polygenic risk score (PRS) is a weighted linear combination of phenotypic related alleles on the genome that can be used to assess KIRC risk. However, standalone SNP data as input to the PRS model may not provide satisfactory result. Therefore, Transcriptional risk scores (TRS) based on multi-omics data and machine learning models were proposed to assess the risk of KIRC. First, we collected four types of multi-omics data (DNA methylation, miRNA, mRNA and lncRNA) of KIRC patients from the TCGA database. Subsequently, a novel TRS method utilizing multiple omics data and XGBoost model was developed. Finally, we performed prevalence analysis and prognosis prediction to evaluate the utility of the TRS generated by our method. Our TRS methods exhibited better predictive performance than the linear models and other machine learning models. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy of combined TRS model was higher than that of single-omics TRS model. The KM curves showed that TRS was a valid prognostic indicator for cancer staging. Our proposed method extended the current definition of TRS from standalone SNP data to multi-omics data and was superior to the linear models and other machine learning models, which may provide a useful implement for diagnostic and prognostic prediction of KIRC.

Polygenic Risk Score in African populations: progress and challenges

Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) analysis is a method that predicts the genetic risk of an individual towards targeted traits. Even when there are no significant markers, it gives evidence of a genetic effect beyond the results of Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS). Moreover, it selects  single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that  contribute to the disease with low effect size  making it more precise at individual level risk prediction. PRS  analysis addresses the shortfall of GWAS by taking into account the SNPs/alleles with  low effect size but play an indispensable role to the observed phenotypic/trait variance.  PRS analysis has  applications that investigate the genetic basis of several traits, which includes rare diseases. However, the accuracy of PRS analysis depends on the genomic data of the underlying population. For instance, several studies  show   that obtaining higher prediction power of PRS analysis is challenging for non-Europeans. In this manuscript, we review the conventional PRS methods and their application to sub-Saharan African communities. We conclude that  lack of sufficient GWAS data and tools is  the limiting factor of applying PRS analysis to sub-Saharan populations.   We recommend developing Africa-specific PRS methods and tools for estimating and analyzing  African population data   for clinical  evaluation of PRSs of interest and predicting  rare diseases.

Polygenic Risk Score in African populations: progress and challenges

Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) analysis is a method that predicts the genetic risk of an individual towards targeted traits. Even when there are no significant markers, it gives evidence of a genetic effect beyond the results of Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS). Moreover, it selects  single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that  contribute to the disease with low effect size  making it more precise at individual level risk prediction. PRS  analysis addresses the shortfall of GWAS by taking into account the SNPs/alleles with  low effect size but play an indispensable role to the observed phenotypic/trait variance.  PRS analysis has  applications that investigate the genetic basis of several traits, which includes rare diseases. However, the accuracy of PRS analysis depends on the genomic data of the underlying population. For instance, several studies  show   that obtaining higher prediction power of PRS analysis is challenging for non-Europeans. In this manuscript, we review the conventional PRS methods and their application to sub-Saharan African communities. We conclude that  lack of sufficient GWAS data and tools is  the limiting factor of applying PRS analysis to sub-Saharan populations.   We recommend developing Africa-specific PRS methods and tools for estimating and analyzing  African population data   for clinical  evaluation of PRSs of interest and predicting  rare diseases.

Enhanced genome-wide association reveals the role of YABBY11-NGATHA-LIKE1 in leaf serration development of Populus

Leaf margins are complex plant morphological features that contribute to leaf shape diversity, which affects plant structure, yield, and adaptation. Although several leaf margin regulators have been identified to date, the genetic basis of their natural variation has not been fully elucidated. In this study, we profiled two distinct leaf morphology types (serrated and smooth) using the persistent homology mathematical framework (PHMF) in two poplar species (Populus tomentosa and Populus simonii, respectively). A combined genome-wide association study (GWAS) and expression quantitative trait nucleotide (eQTN) mapping were applied to create a leaf morphology control module using data from P. tomentosa and P. simonii populations. Natural variation in leaf margins was associated with YABBY11 (YAB11) transcript abundance in poplar. In P. tomentosa, PtoYAB11 carries a premature stop codon (PtoYAB11PSC), resulting in the loss of its positive regulation of NGATHA-LIKE1 (PtoNGAL-1) and RIBULOSE BISPHOSPHATE CARBOXYLASE LARGE SUBUNIT (PtoRBCL). Overexpression of PtoYAB11PSC promoted serrated leaf margins, enlarged leaves, enhanced photosynthesis, and increased biomass. Overexpression of PsiYAB11 in P. tomentosa promoted smooth leaf margins, higher stomatal density, and greater light damage repair ability. In poplar, YAB11-NGAL1 is sensitive to environmental conditions, acts as a positive regulator of leaf margin serration, and may also link environmental signaling to leaf morphological plasticity.

Improving the computation efficiency of polygenic risk score modeling: faster in Julia

To enable computationally efficient polygenic risk score (PRS) calculations, PRS.jl translates a field standard PRS construction method, PRS-CS, to the Julia programming language.

To enable large-scale application of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) in a computationally efficient manner, we translate a widely used PRS construction method, PRS–continuous shrinkage, to the Julia programming language, PRS.jl. On nine different traits with varying genetic architectures, we demonstrate that PRS.jl maintains accuracy of prediction while decreasing the average runtime by 5.5×. Additional programmatic modifications improve usability and robustness. This freely available software substantially improves work flow and democratizes usage of PRSs by lowering the computational burden of the PRS–continuous shrinkage method.

A penalized linear mixed model with generalized method of moments estimators for complex phenotype prediction

MOTIVATION

Linear mixed models (LMMs) have long been the method of choice for risk prediction analysis on high-dimensional data. However, it remains computationally challenging to simultaneously model a large amount of variants that can be noise or have predictive effects of complex forms.

RESULTS

In this work, we have developed a penalized LMM with generalized method of moments (pLMMGMM) estimators for prediction analysis. pLMMGMM is built within the LMM framework, where random effects are used to model the joint predictive effects from all variants within a region. Different from existing methods that focus on linear relationships and use empirical criteria for variable screening, pLMMGMM can efficiently detect regions that harbor genetic variants with both linear and non-linear predictive effects. In addition, unlike existing LMMs that can only handle a very limited number of random effects, pLMMGMM is much less computationally demanding. It can jointly consider a large number of regions and accurately detect those that are predictive. Through theoretical investigations, we have shown that our method has the selection consistency and asymptotic normality. Through extensive simulations and the analysis of PET-imaging outcomes, we have demonstrated that pLMMGMM outperformed existing models and it can accurately detect regions that harbor risk factors with various forms of predictive effects.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

The R-package is available at https://github.com/XiaQiong/GMMLasso.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Dissecting Complex Traits Using Omics Data: A Review on the Linear Mixed Models and Their Application in GWAS

Genome-wide association study (GWAS) is the most popular approach to dissecting complex traits in plants, humans, and animals. Numerous methods and tools have been proposed to discover the causal variants for GWAS data analysis. Among them, linear mixed models (LMMs) are widely used statistical methods for regulating confounding factors, including population structure, resulting in increased computational proficiency and statistical power in GWAS studies. Recently more attention has been paid to pleiotropy, multi-trait, gene-gene interaction, gene-environment interaction, and multi-locus methods with the growing availability of large-scale GWAS data and relevant phenotype samples. In this review, we have demonstrated all possible LMMs-based methods available in the literature for GWAS. We briefly discuss the different LMM methods, software packages, and available open-source applications in GWAS. Then, we include the advantages and weaknesses of the LMMs in GWAS. Finally, we discuss the future perspective and conclusion. The present review paper would be helpful to the researchers for selecting appropriate LMM models and methods quickly for GWAS data analysis and would benefit the scientific society.

Multiancestral polygenic risk score for pediatric asthma

BACKGROUND

Asthma is the most common chronic condition in children and the third leading cause of hospitalization in pediatrics. The genome-wide association study catalog reports 140 studies with genome-wide significance. A polygenic risk score (PRS) with predictive value across ancestries has not been evaluated for this important trait.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to train and validate a PRS relying on genetic determinants for asthma to provide predictions for disease occurrence in pediatric cohorts of diverse ancestries.

METHODS

This study applied a Bayesian regression framework method using the Trans-National Asthma Genetic Consortium genome-wide association study summary statistics to derive a multiancestral PRS score, used one Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) cohort as a training set, used a second independent eMERGE cohort to validate the score, and used the UK Biobank data to replicate the findings. A phenome-wide association study was performed using the PRS to identify shared genetic etiology with other phenotypes.

RESULTS

The multiancestral asthma PRS was associated with asthma in the 2 pediatric validation datasets. Overall, the multiancestral asthma PRS has an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.69-0.72) in the pediatric validation 1 and AUC of 0.66 (0.65-0.66) in the pediatric validation 2 datasets. We found significant discrimination across pediatric subcohorts of European (AUC, 95% CI, 0.60 and 0.66), African (AUC, 95% CI, 0.61 and 0.66), admixed American (AUC, 0.64 and 0.70), Southeast Asian (AUC, 0.65), and East Asian (AUC, 0.73) ancestry. Pediatric participants with the top 5% PRS had 2.80 to 5.82 increased odds of asthma compared to the bottom 5% across the training, validation 1, and validation 2 cohorts when adjusted for ancestry. Phenome-wide association study analysis confirmed the strong association of the identified PRS with asthma (odds ratio, 2.71, PFDR = 3.71 × 10-65) and related phenotypes.

CONCLUSIONS

A multiancestral PRS for asthma based on Bayesian posterior genomic effect sizes identifies increased odds of pediatric asthma.

Incorporating family disease history and controlling case-control imbalance for population-based genetic association studies

MOTIVATION

In the genome-wide association analysis of population-based biobanks, most diseases have low prevalence, which results in low detection power. One approach to tackle the problem is using family disease history, yet existing methods are unable to address type I error inflation induced by increased correlation of phenotypes among closely related samples, as well as unbalanced phenotypic distribution.

RESULTS

We propose a new method for genetic association test with family disease history, mixed-model-based Test with Adjusted Phenotype and Empirical saddlepoint approximation, which controls for increased phenotype correlation by adopting a two-variance-component mixed model, accounts for case-control imbalance by using empirical saddlepoint approximation, and is flexible to incorporate any existing adjusted phenotypes, such as phenotypes from the LT-FH method. We show through simulation studies and analysis of UK Biobank data of white British samples and the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study of Korean samples that the proposed method is robust and yields better calibration compared to existing methods while gaining power for detection of variant-phenotype associations.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

The summary statistics and code generated in this study are available at https://github.com/styvon/TAPE.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Multiethnic polygenic risk prediction in diverse populations through transfer learning

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) leverage the genetic contribution of an individual’s genotype to a complex trait by estimating disease risk. Traditional PRS prediction methods are predominantly for the European population. The accuracy of PRS prediction in non-European populations is diminished due to much smaller sample size of genome-wide association studies (GWAS). In this article, we introduced a novel method to construct PRS for non-European populations, abbreviated as TL-Multi, by conducting a transfer learning framework to learn useful knowledge from the European population to correct the bias for non-European populations. We considered non-European GWAS data as the target data and European GWAS data as the informative auxiliary data. TL-Multi borrows useful information from the auxiliary data to improve the learning accuracy of the target data while preserving the efficiency and accuracy. To demonstrate the practical applicability of the proposed method, we applied TL-Multi to predict the risk of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in the Asian population and the risk of asthma in the Indian population by borrowing information from the European population. TL-Multi achieved better prediction accuracy than the competing methods, including Lassosum and meta-analysis in both simulations and real applications.

An Integrative Genomic Prediction Approach for Predicting Buffalo Milk Traits by Incorporating Related Cattle QTLs

Background: The 90K Axiom Buffalo SNP Array is expected to improve and speed up various genomic analyses for the buffalo (Bubalus bubalis). Genomic prediction is an effective approach in animal breeding to improve selection and reduce costs. As buffalo genome research is lagging behind that of the cow and production records are also limited, genomic prediction performance will be relatively poor. To improve the genomic prediction in buffalo, we introduced a new approach (pGBLUP) for genomic prediction of six buffalo milk traits by incorporating QTL information from the cattle milk traits in order to help improve the prediction performance for buffalo. Results: In simulations, the pGBLUP could outperform BayesR and the GBLUP if the prior biological information (i.e., the known causal loci) was appropriate; otherwise, it performed slightly worse than BayesR and equal to or better than the GBLUP. In real data, the heritability of the buffalo genomic region corresponding to the cattle milk trait QTLs was enriched (fold of enrichment > 1) in four buffalo milk traits (FY270, MY270, PY270, and PM) when the EBV was used as the response variable. The DEBV as the response variable yielded more reliable genomic predictions than the traditional EBV, as has been shown by previous research. The performance of the three approaches (GBLUP, BayesR, and pGBLUP) did not vary greatly in this study, probably due to the limited sample size, incomplete prior biological information, and less artificial selection in buffalo. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this study is the first to apply genomic prediction to buffalo by incorporating prior biological information. The genomic prediction of buffalo traits can be further improved with a larger sample size, higher-density SNP chips, and more precise prior biological information.

Challenges and Opportunities for Developing More Generalizable Polygenic Risk Scores

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) estimate an individual's genetic likelihood of complex traits and diseases by aggregating information across multiple genetic variants identified from genome-wide association studies. PRS can predict a broad spectrum of diseases and have therefore been widely used in research settings. Some work has investigated their potential applications as biomarkers in preventative medicine, but significant work is still needed to definitively establish and communicate absolute risk to patients for genetic and modifiable risk factors across demographic groups. However, the biggest limitation of PRS currently is that they show poor generalizability across diverse ancestries and cohorts. Major efforts are underway through methodological development and data generation initiatives to improve their generalizability. This review aims to comprehensively discuss current progress on the development of PRS, the factors that affect their generalizability, and promising areas for improving their accuracy, portability, and implementation.

A penalized linear mixed model with generalized method of moments for prediction analysis on high-dimensional multi-omics data

With the advances in high-throughput biotechnologies, high-dimensional multi-layer omics data become increasingly available. They can provide both confirmatory and complementary information to disease risk and thus have offered unprecedented opportunities for risk prediction studies. However, the high-dimensionality and complex inter/intra-relationships among multi-omics data have brought tremendous analytical challenges. Here we present a computationally efficient penalized linear mixed model with generalized method of moments estimator (MpLMMGMM) for the prediction analysis on multi-omics data. Our method extends the widely used linear mixed model proposed for genomic risk predictions to model multi-omics data, where kernel functions are used to capture various types of predictive effects from different layers of omics data and penalty terms are introduced to reduce the impact of noise. Compared with existing penalized linear mixed models, the proposed method adopts the generalized method of moments estimator and it is much more computationally efficient. Through extensive simulation studies and the analysis of positron emission tomography imaging outcomes, we have demonstrated that MpLMMGMM can simultaneously consider a large number of variables and efficiently select those that are predictive from the corresponding omics layers. It can capture both linear and nonlinear predictive effects and achieves better prediction performance than competing methods.

Explainable deep transfer learning model for disease risk prediction using high-dimensional genomic data

Building an accurate disease risk prediction model is an essential step in the modern quest for precision medicine. While high-dimensional genomic data provides valuable data resources for the investigations of disease risk, their huge amount of noise and complex relationships between predictors and outcomes have brought tremendous analytical challenges. Deep learning model is the state-of-the-art methods for many prediction tasks, and it is a promising framework for the analysis of genomic data. However, deep learning models generally suffer from the curse of dimensionality and the lack of biological interpretability, both of which have greatly limited their applications. In this work, we have developed a deep neural network (DNN) based prediction modeling framework. We first proposed a group-wise feature importance score for feature selection, where genes harboring genetic variants with both linear and non-linear effects are efficiently detected. We then designed an explainable transfer-learning based DNN method, which can directly incorporate information from feature selection and accurately capture complex predictive effects. The proposed DNN-framework is biologically interpretable, as it is built based on the selected predictive genes. It is also computationally efficient and can be applied to genome-wide data. Through extensive simulations and real data analyses, we have demonstrated that our proposed method can not only efficiently detect predictive features, but also accurately predict disease risk, as compared to many existing methods.

Accurate disease risk prediction is an essential step towards precision medicine. Deep learning models have achieved the state-of-the-art performance for many prediction tasks. However, they generally suffer from the curse of dimensionality and lack of biological interpretability, both of which have greatly limited their applications to the prediction analysis of whole-genome sequencing data. We present here an explainable deep transfer learning model for the analysis of high-dimensional genomic data. Our proposed method can detect predictive genes that harbor genetic variants with both linear and non-linear effects via the proposed group-wise feature importance score. It can also efficiently and accurately model disease risk based on the detected predictive genes using the proposed transfer-learning based network architecture. Our proposed method is built at the gene level, and thus is much more biologically interpretable. It is also computationally efficiently and can be applied to whole-exome sequencing data that have millions of potential predictors. Through both simulation studies and the analysis of whole-exome data obtained from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, we have demonstrated that our method can efficiently detect predictive genes and it has better prediction performance than many existing methods.

Efficient estimation of SNP heritability using Gaussian predictive process in large scale cohort studies

With the advent of high throughput genetic data, there have been attempts to estimate heritability from genome-wide SNP data on a cohort of distantly related individuals using linear mixed model (LMM). Fitting such an LMM in a large scale cohort study, however, is tremendously challenging due to its high dimensional linear algebraic operations. In this paper, we propose a new method named PredLMM approximating the aforementioned LMM motivated by the concepts of genetic coalescence and Gaussian predictive process. PredLMM has substantially better computational complexity than most of the existing LMM based methods and thus, provides a fast alternative for estimating heritability in large scale cohort studies. Theoretically, we show that under a model of genetic coalescence, the limiting form of our approximation is the celebrated predictive process approximation of large Gaussian process likelihoods that has well-established accuracy standards. We illustrate our approach with extensive simulation studies and use it to estimate the heritability of multiple quantitative traits from the UK Biobank cohort.

Accurate prediction of complex traits for individuals and offspring from parents using a simple, rapid, and efficient method for gene-based breeding in cotton and maize

Accurate, simple, rapid, and inexpensive prediction of complex traits controlled by numerous genes is paramount to enhanced plant breeding, animal breeding, and human medicine. Here we report a novel method that enables accurate, simple, and rapid prediction of complex traits of individuals or offspring from parents based on the number of favorable alleles (NFAs) of the genes controlling the objective traits. The NFAs of 226 cotton fiber length (GFL) genes and nine maize hybrid grain yield related (ZmF1GY) genes were directly used to predict cotton fiber lengths of individual plants and maize grain yields of F₁ hybrids from parents, respectively, using prediction model-based methods as controls. The NFAs of the 226 GFL genes predicted cotton fiber lengths at an accuracy of 0.85, as the model methods and outperforming genomic prediction by 82 % - 170 %. The NFAs of the nine ZmF1GY genes predicted grain yields of maize hybrids from parents at an accuracy of 0.80, outperforming genomic prediction by 67 %. Moreover, the prediction accuracies of these traits were consistent across years, environments, and eco-agricultural systems. Importantly, the accurate prediction of these traits directly using the NFAs of the genes allows breeding to be performed in greenhouse, phytotron, or off-season, without the need of the model training and validation steps essential and costly for model-based genomic or genic prediction. Therefore, this new method dramatically outperforms the current model-based genomic methods used for phenotype prediction and streamlines the process of breeding, thus promising to substantially enhance current plant and animal breeding.

Simultaneous test and estimation of total genetic effect in eQTL integrative analysis through mixed models

Integration of expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) into genome-wide association studies (GWASs) is a promising manner to reveal functional roles of associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in complex phenotypes and has become an active research field in post-GWAS era. However, how to efficiently incorporate eQTL mapping study into GWAS for prioritization of causal genes remains elusive. We herein proposed a novel method termed as Mixed transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS) and mediated Variance estimation (MTV) by modeling the effects of cis-SNPs of a gene as a function of eQTL. MTV formulates the integrative method and TWAS within a unified framework via mixed models and therefore includes many prior methods/tests as special cases. We further justified MTV from another two statistical perspectives of mediation analysis and two-stage Mendelian randomization. Relative to existing methods, MTV is superior for pronounced features including the processing of direct effects of cis-SNPs on phenotypes, the powerful likelihood ratio test for assessment of joint effects of cis-SNPs and genetically regulated gene expression (GReX), two useful quantities to measure relative genetic contributions of GReX and cis-SNPs to phenotypic variance, and the computationally efferent parameter expansion expectation maximum algorithm. With extensive simulations, we identified that MTV correctly controlled the type I error in joint evaluation of the total genetic effect and proved more powerful to discover true association signals across various scenarios compared to existing methods. We finally applied MTV to 41 complex traits/diseases available from three GWASs and discovered many new associated genes that had otherwise been missed by existing methods. We also revealed that a small but substantial fraction of phenotypic variation was mediated by GReX. Overall, MTV constructs a robust and realistic modeling foundation for integrative omics analysis and has the advantage of offering more attractive biological interpretations of GWAS results.

Large uncertainty in individual polygenic risk score estimation impacts PRS-based risk stratification

Although the cohort-level accuracy of polygenic risk scores (PRSs)-estimates of genetic value at the individual level-has been widely assessed, uncertainty in PRSs remains underexplored. In the present study, we show that Bayesian PRS methods can estimate the variance of an individual's PRS and can yield well-calibrated credible intervals via posterior sampling. For 13 real traits in the UK Biobank (n = 291,273 unrelated 'white British'), we observe large variances in individual PRS estimates which impact interpretation of PRS-based stratification; averaging across traits, only 0.8% (s.d. = 1.6%) of individuals with PRS point estimates in the top decile have corresponding 95% credible intervals fully contained in the top decile. We provide an analytical estimator for the expectation of individual PRS variance as a function of SNP heritability, number of causal SNPs and sample size. Our results showcase the importance of incorporating uncertainty in individual PRS estimates into subsequent analyses.

Evaluating the interrelations between the autism polygenic score and psychiatric family history in risk for autism

Psychiatric family history or a high autism polygenic risk score (PRS) have been separately linked to autism spectrum disorder (ASD) risk. The study aimed to simultaneously consider psychiatric family history and individual autism genetic liability (PRS) in autism risk. We performed a case-control study of all Denmark singleton births, May 1981-December 2005, in Denmark at their first birthday and a known mother. Cases were diagnosed with ASD before 2013 and controls comprised a random sample of 30,000 births without ASD, excluding persons with non-Denmark-born parents, missing ASD PRS, non-European ancestry. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) were estimated for ASD by PRS decile and by psychiatric history in parents or full siblings (8 mutually-exclusive categories) using logistic regression. Adjusted ASD PRS z-score least-squares means were estimated by psychiatric family history category. ASD risk (11,339 ASD cases; 20,175 controls) from ASD PRS was not substantially altered after accounting for psychiatric family history (e.g., ASD PRS 10th decile aOR: 2.35 (95% CI 2.11-2.63) before vs 2.11 (95% CI 1.91-2.40) after adjustment) nor from psychiatric family history after accounting for ASD PRS (e.g., ASD family history aOR: 6.73 (95% CI 5.89-7.68) before vs 6.32 (95% CI 5.53-7.22) after adjustment). ASD risk from ASD PRS varied slightly by psychiatric family history. While ASD risk from psychiatric family history was not accounted for by ASD PRS and vice versa, risk overlap between the two factors will likely increase as measures of genetic risk improve. The two factors are best viewed as complementary measures of family-based autism risk. LAY SUMMARY: Autism risk from a history of mental disorders in the immediate family was not explained by a measure of individual genetic risk (autism polygenic risk score) and vice versa. That is, genetic risk did not appear to overlap family history risk. As genetic measures for autism improve then the overlap in autism risk from family history versus genetic factors will likely increase, but further study may be needed to fully determine the components of risk and how they are inter-related between these key family factors. Meanwhile, the two factors may be best viewed as complementary measures of autism family-based risk.

A guidance of model selection for genomic prediction based on linear mixed models for complex traits

Brain imaging outcomes are important for Alzheimer's disease (AD) detection, and their prediction based on both genetic and demographic risk factors can facilitate the ongoing prevention and treatment of AD. Existing studies have identified numerous significantly AD-associated SNPs. However, how to make the best use of them for prediction analyses remains unknown. In this research, we first explored the relationship between genetic architecture and prediction accuracy of linear mixed models via visualizing the Manhattan plots generated based on the data obtained from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium, and then constructed prediction models for eleven AD-related brain imaging outcomes using data from United Kingdom Biobank and Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative studies. We found that the simple Manhattan plots can be informative for the selection of prediction models. For traits that do not exhibit any significant signals from the Manhattan plots, the simple genomic best linear unbiased prediction (gBLUP) model is recommended due to its robust and accurate prediction performance as well as its computational efficiency. For diseases and traits that show spiked signals on the Manhattan plots, the latent Dirichlet process regression is preferred, as it can flexibly accommodate both the oligogenic and omnigenic models. For the prediction of AD-related traits, the Manhattan plots suggest their polygenic nature, and gBLUP has achieved robust performance for all these traits. We found that for these AD-related traits, genetic factors themselves only explain a very small proportion of the heritability, and the well-known AD risk factors can substantially improve the prediction model.

Genetic prediction of complex traits with polygenic scores: a statistical review

Accurate genetic prediction of complex traits can facilitate disease screening, improve early intervention, and aid in the development of personalized medicine. Genetic prediction of complex traits requires the development of statistical methods that can properly model polygenic architecture and construct a polygenic score (PGS). We present a comprehensive review of 46 methods for PGS construction. We connect the majority of these methods through a multiple linear regression framework which can be instrumental for understanding their prediction performance for traits with distinct genetic architectures. We discuss the practical considerations of PGS analysis as well as challenges and future directions of PGS method development. We hope our review serves as a useful reference both for statistical geneticists who develop PGS methods and for data analysts who perform PGS analysis.

Single-Trait and Multiple-Trait Genomic Prediction From Multi-Class Bayesian Alphabet Models Using Biological Information

Genomic prediction has been widely used in multiple areas and various genomic prediction methods have been developed. The majority of these methods, however, focus on statistical properties and ignore the abundant useful biological information like genome annotation or previously discovered causal variants. Therefore, to improve prediction performance, several methods have been developed to incorporate biological information into genomic prediction, mostly in single-trait analysis. A commonly used method to incorporate biological information is allocating molecular markers into different classes based on the biological information and assigning separate priors to molecular markers in different classes. It has been shown that such methods can achieve higher prediction accuracy than conventional methods in some circumstances. However, these methods mainly focus on single-trait analysis, and available priors of these methods are limited. Thus, in both single-trait and multiple-trait analysis, we propose the multi-class Bayesian Alphabet methods, in which multiple Bayesian Alphabet priors, including RR-BLUP, BayesA, BayesB, BayesCΠ, and Bayesian LASSO, can be used for markers allocated to different classes. The superior performance of the multi-class Bayesian Alphabet in genomic prediction is demonstrated using both real and simulated data. The software tool JWAS offers open-source routines to perform these analyses.

Incorporating functional priors improves polygenic prediction accuracy in UK Biobank and 23andMe data sets

Polygenic risk prediction is a widely investigated topic because of its promising clinical applications. Genetic variants in functional regions of the genome are enriched for complex trait heritability. Here, we introduce a method for polygenic prediction, LDpred-funct, that leverages trait-specific functional priors to increase prediction accuracy. We fit priors using the recently developed baseline-LD model, including coding, conserved, regulatory, and LD-related annotations. We analytically estimate posterior mean causal effect sizes and then use cross-validation to regularize these estimates, improving prediction accuracy for sparse architectures. We applied LDpred-funct to predict 21 highly heritable traits in the UK Biobank (avg N = 373 K as training data). LDpred-funct attained a +4.6% relative improvement in average prediction accuracy (avg prediction R2 = 0.144; highest R2 = 0.413 for height) compared to SBayesR (the best method that does not incorporate functional information). For height, meta-analyzing training data from UK Biobank and 23andMe cohorts (N = 1107 K) increased prediction R2 to 0.431. Our results show that incorporating functional priors improves polygenic prediction accuracy, consistent with the functional architecture of complex traits.

PUMAS: fine-tuning polygenic risk scores with GWAS summary statistics

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have wide applications in human genetics research, but often include tuning parameters which are difficult to optimize in practice due to limited access to individual-level data. Here, we introduce PUMAS, a novel method to fine-tune PRS models using summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWASs). Through extensive simulations, external validations, and analysis of 65 traits, we demonstrate that PUMAS can perform various model-tuning procedures using GWAS summary statistics and effectively benchmark and optimize PRS models under diverse genetic architecture. Furthermore, we show that fine-tuned PRSs will significantly improve statistical power in downstream association analysis.

Integration of genome wide association studies and co-expression networks reveal roles of PtoWRKY 42-PtoUGT76C1-1 in trans-zeatin metabolism and cytokinin sensitivity in poplar

Cytokinins are important for in vitro shoot regeneration in plants. Cytokinin N-glucosides are produced via an irreversible glycosylation pathway, which regulates the endogenous cytokinin content. Although cytokinin N-glucoside pathways have been uncovered in higher plants, no regulator has been identified to date. We performed a metabolome genome-wide association study (mGWAS), weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA), and expression quantitative trait nucleotide (eQTN) mappings to build a core triple genetic network (mGWAS-gene expression-phenotype) for the trans-zeatin N-glucoside (ZNG) metabolite using data from 435 unrelated Populus tomentosa individuals. Variation of the ZNG level in poplar is attributed to the differential transcription of PtoWRKY42, a member of WRKY multigene family group IIb. Functional analysis revealed that PtoWRKY42 negatively regulated ZNG accumulation by binding directly to the W-box of the UDP-glycosyltransferase 76C 1-1 (PtoUGT761-1) promoter. Also, PtoWRKY42 was strongly induced by leaf senescence, 6-BA, wounding, and salt stress, resulting in a reduced ZNG level. We identified PtoWRKY42, a negative regulator of cytokinin N-glucosides, which contributes to the natural variation in ZNG level and mediates ZNG accumulation by directly modulating the key glycosyltransferase gene PtoUGT76C1-1.

Genome-wide association studies reveal the coordinated regulatory networks underlying photosynthesis and wood formation in Populus

Photosynthesis and wood formation underlie the ability of trees to provide renewable resources and perform ecological functions; however, the genetic basis and regulatory pathways coordinating these two linked processes remain unclear. Here, we used a systems genetics strategy, integrating genome-wide association studies, transcriptomic analyses, and transgenic experiments, to investigate the genetic architecture of photosynthesis and wood properties among 435 unrelated individuals of Populus tomentosa, and unravel the coordinated regulatory networks resulting in two trait categories. We detected 222 significant single-nucleotide polymorphisms, annotated to 177 candidate genes, for 10 traits of photosynthesis and wood properties. Epistasis uncovered 74 epistatic interactions for phenotypes. Strikingly, we deciphered the coordinated regulation patterns of pleiotropic genes underlying phenotypic variations for two trait categories. Furthermore, expression quantitative trait nucleotide mapping and coexpression analysis were integrated to unravel the potential transcriptional regulatory networks of candidate genes coordinating photosynthesis and wood properties. Finally, heterologous expression of two pleiotropic genes, PtoMYB62 and PtoMYB80, in Arabidopsis thaliana demonstrated that they control regulatory networks balancing photosynthesis and stem secondary cell wall components, respectively. Our study provides insights into the regulatory mechanisms coordinating photosynthesis and wood formation in poplar, and should facilitate genetic breeding in trees via molecular design.

Improved genetic prediction of complex traits from individual-level data or summary statistics

Most existing tools for constructing genetic prediction models begin with the assumption that all genetic variants contribute equally towards the phenotype. However, this represents a suboptimal model for how heritability is distributed across the genome. Therefore, we develop prediction tools that allow the user to specify the heritability model. We compare individual-level data prediction tools using 14 UK Biobank phenotypes; our new tool LDAK-Bolt-Predict outperforms the existing tools Lasso, BLUP, Bolt-LMM and BayesR for all 14 phenotypes. We compare summary statistic prediction tools using 225 UK Biobank phenotypes; our new tool LDAK-BayesR-SS outperforms the existing tools lassosum, sBLUP, LDpred and SBayesR for 223 of the 225 phenotypes. When we improve the heritability model, the proportion of phenotypic variance explained increases by on average 14%, which is equivalent to increasing the sample size by a quarter.

Leveraging both individual-level genetic data and GWAS summary statistics increases polygenic prediction

The accuracy of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) to predict complex diseases increases with the training sample size. PRSs are generally derived based on summary statistics from large meta-analyses of multiple genome-wide association studies (GWASs). However, it is now common for researchers to have access to large individual-level data as well, such as the UK Biobank data. To the best of our knowledge, it has not yet been explored how best to combine both types of data (summary statistics and individual-level data) to optimize polygenic prediction. The most widely used approach to combine data is the meta-analysis of GWAS summary statistics (meta-GWAS), but we show that it does not always provide the most accurate PRS. Through simulations and using 12 real case-control and quantitative traits from both iPSYCH and UK Biobank along with external GWAS summary statistics, we compare meta-GWAS with two alternative data-combining approaches, stacked clumping and thresholding (SCT) and meta-PRS. We find that, when large individual-level data are available, the linear combination of PRSs (meta-PRS) is both a simple alternative to meta-GWAS and often more accurate.

Improving Genomic Prediction Using High-Dimensional Secondary Phenotypes

In the past decades, genomic prediction has had a large impact on plant breeding. Given the current advances of high-throughput phenotyping and sequencing technologies, it is increasingly common to observe a large number of traits, in addition to the target trait of interest. This raises the important question whether these additional or “secondary” traits can be used to improve genomic prediction for the target trait. With only a small number of secondary traits, this is known to be the case, given sufficiently high heritabilities and genetic correlations. Here we focus on the more challenging situation with a large number of secondary traits, which is increasingly common since the arrival of high-throughput phenotyping. In this case, secondary traits are usually incorporated through additional relatedness matrices. This approach is however infeasible when secondary traits are not measured on the test set, and cannot distinguish between genetic and non-genetic correlations. An alternative direction is to extend the classical selection indices using penalized regression. So far, penalized selection indices have not been applied in a genomic prediction setting, and require plot-level data in order to reliably estimate genetic correlations. Here we aim to overcome these limitations, using two novel approaches. Our first approach relies on a dimension reduction of the secondary traits, using either penalized regression or random forests (LS-BLUP/RF-BLUP). We then compute the bivariate GBLUP with the dimension reduction as secondary trait. For simulated data (with available plot-level data), we also use bivariate GBLUP with the penalized selection index as secondary trait (SI-BLUP). In our second approach (GM-BLUP), we follow existing multi-kernel methods but replace secondary traits by their genomic predictions, with the advantage that genomic prediction is also possible when secondary traits are only measured on the training set. For most of our simulated data, SI-BLUP was most accurate, often closely followed by RF-BLUP or LS-BLUP. In real datasets, involving metabolites in Arabidopsis and transcriptomics in maize, no method could substantially improve over univariate prediction when secondary traits were only available on the training set. LS-BLUP and RF-BLUP were most accurate when secondary traits were available also for the test set.

Genome wide association study of response to interval and continuous exercise training: the Predict-HIIT study

BACKGROUND

Low cardiorespiratory fitness (V̇O_2peak) is highly associated with chronic disease and mortality from all causes. Whilst exercise training is recommended in health guidelines to improve V̇O_2peak, there is considerable inter-individual variability in the V̇O_2peak response to the same dose of exercise. Understanding how genetic factors contribute to V̇O_2peak training response may improve personalisation of exercise programs. The aim of this study was to identify genetic variants that are associated with the magnitude of V̇O₂peak response following exercise training.

METHODS

Participant change in objectively measured V̇O₂peak from 18 different interventions was obtained from a multi-centre study (Predict-HIIT). A genome-wide association study was completed (n = 507), and a polygenic predictor score (PPS) was developed using alleles from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) significantly associated (P < 1 × 10^-5) with the magnitude of V̇O₂peak response. Findings were tested in an independent validation study (n = 39) and compared to previous research.

RESULTS

No variants at the genome-wide significance level were found after adjusting for key covariates (baseline V̇O₂peak_, individual study, principal components which were significantly associated with the trait). A Quantile-Quantile plot indicates there was minor inflation in the study. Twelve novel loci showed a trend of association with V̇O₂peak response that reached suggestive significance (P < 1 × 10^-5). The strongest association was found near the membrane associated guanylate kinase, WW and PDZ domain containing 2 (MAGI2) gene (rs6959961, P = 2.61 × 10^-7). A PPS created from the 12 lead SNPs was unable to predict V̇O₂peak response in a tenfold cross validation, or in an independent (n = 39) validation study (P > 0.1). Significant correlations were found for beta coefficients of variants in the Predict-HIIT (P < 1 × 10^-4) and the validation study (P <  × 10^-6), indicating that general effects of the loci exist, and that with a higher statistical power, more significant genetic associations may become apparent.

CONCLUSIONS

Ongoing research and validation of current and previous findings is needed to determine if genetics does play a large role in V̇O₂peak response variance, and whether genomic predictors for V̇O₂peak response trainability can inform evidence-based clinical practice. Trial registration Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR), Trial Id: ACTRN12618000501246, Date Registered: 06/04/2018, http://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=374601&isReview=true .

Diversifying maize genomic selection models

Genomic selection (GS) is one of the most powerful tools available for maize breeding. Its use of genome-wide marker data to estimate breeding values translates to increased genetic gains with fewer breeding cycles. In this review, we cover the history of GS and highlight particular milestones during its adaptation to maize breeding. We discuss how GS can be applied to developing superior maize inbreds and hybrids. Additionally, we characterize refinements in GS models that could enable the encapsulation of non-additive genetic effects, genotype by environment interactions, and multiple levels of the biological hierarchy, all of which could ultimately result in more accurate predictions of breeding values. Finally, we suggest the stages in a maize breeding program where it would be beneficial to apply GS. Given the current sophistication of high-throughput phenotypic, genotypic, and other -omic level data currently available to the maize community, now is the time to explore the implications of their incorporation into GS models and thus ensure that genetic gains are being achieved as quickly and efficiently as possible.

Prediction of complex phenotypes using the Drosophila melanogaster metabolome

Understanding the genotype-phenotype map and how variation at different levels of biological organization is associated are central topics in modern biology. Fast developments in sequencing technologies and other molecular omic tools enable researchers to obtain detailed information on variation at DNA level and on intermediate endophenotypes, such as RNA, proteins and metabolites. This can facilitate our understanding of the link between genotypes and molecular and functional organismal phenotypes. Here, we use the Drosophila melanogaster Genetic Reference Panel and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) metabolomics to investigate the ability of the metabolome to predict organismal phenotypes. We performed NMR metabolomics on four replicate pools of male flies from each of 170 different isogenic lines. Our results show that metabolite profiles are variable among the investigated lines and that this variation is highly heritable. Second, we identify genes associated with metabolome variation. Third, using the metabolome gave better prediction accuracies than genomic information for four of five quantitative traits analyzed. Our comprehensive characterization of population-scale diversity of metabolomes and its genetic basis illustrates that metabolites have large potential as predictors of organismal phenotypes. This finding is of great importance, e.g., in human medicine, evolutionary biology and animal and plant breeding.

Polygenic Risk Scores have high diagnostic capacity in ankylosing spondylitis

Objective

We sought to test the hypothesis that Polygenic Risk Scores (PRSs) have strong capacity to discriminate cases of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) from healthy controls and individuals in the community with chronic back pain.

Methods

PRSs were developed and validated in individuals of European and East Asian ethnicity, using data from genome-wide association studies in 15 585 AS cases and 20 452 controls. The discriminatory values of PRSs in these populations were compared with other widely used diagnostic tests, including C-reactive protein (CRP), HLA-B27 and sacroiliac MRI.

Results

In people of European descent, PRS had high discriminatory capacity with area under the curve (AUC) in receiver operator characteristic analysis of 0.924. This was significantly better than for HLA-B27 testing alone (AUC=0.869), MRI (AUC=0.885) or C-reactive protein (AUC=0.700). PRS developed and validated in individuals of East Asian descent performed similarly (AUC=0.948). Assuming a prior probability of AS of 10% such as in patients with chronic back pain under 45 years of age, compared with HLA-B27 testing alone, PRS provides higher positive values for 35% of patients and negative predictive values for 67.5% of patients. For PRS, in people of European descent, the maximum positive predictive value was 78.2% and negative predictive value was 100%, whereas for HLA-B27, these values were 51.9% and 97.9%, respectively.

Conclusions

PRS have higher discriminatory capacity for AS than CRP, sacroiliac MRI or HLA-B27 status alone. For optimal performance, PRS should be developed for use in the specific ethnic groups to which they are to be applied.

A Bayesian linear mixed model for prediction of complex traits

MOTIVATION

Accurate disease risk prediction is essential for precision medicine. Existing models either assume that diseases are caused by groups of predictors with small-to-moderate effects or a few isolated predictors with large effects. Their performance can be sensitive to the underlying disease mechanisms, which are usually unknown in advance.

RESULTS

We developed a Bayesian linear mixed model (BLMM), where genetic effects were modelled using a hybrid of the sparsity regression and linear mixed model with multiple random effects. The parameters in BLMM were inferred through a computationally efficient variational Bayes algorithm. The proposed method can resemble the shape of the true effect size distributions, captures the predictive effects from both common and rare variants, and is robust against various disease models. Through extensive simulations and the application to a whole-genome sequencing dataset obtained from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiatives, we have demonstrated that BLMM has better prediction performance than existing methods and can detect variables and/or genetic regions that are predictive.

AVAILABILITYAND IMPLEMENTATION

The R-package is available at https://github.com/yhai943/BLMM.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Improving Genomic Prediction for Seed Quality Traits in Oat (Avena sativa L.) Using Trait-Specific Relationship Matrices

The observable phenotype is the manifestation of information that is passed along different organization levels (transcriptional, translational, and metabolic) of a biological system. The widespread use of various omic technologies (RNA-sequencing, metabolomics, etc.) has provided plant genetics and breeders with a wealth of information on pertinent intermediate molecular processes that may help explain variation in conventional traits such as yield, seed quality, and fitness, among others. A major challenge is effectively using these data to help predict the genetic merit of new, unobserved individuals for conventional agronomic traits. Trait-specific genomic relationship matrices (TGRMs) model the relationships between individuals using genome-wide markers (SNPs) and place greater emphasis on markers that most relevant to the trait compared to conventional genomic relationship matrices. Given that these approaches define relationships based on putative causal loci, it is expected that these approaches should improve predictions for related traits. In this study we evaluated the use of TGRMs to accommodate information on intermediate molecular phenotypes (referred to as endophenotypes) and to predict an agronomic trait, total lipid content, in oat seed. Nine fatty acids were quantified in a panel of 336 oat lines. Marker effects were estimated for each endophenotype, and were used to construct TGRMs. A multikernel TRGM model (MK-TRGM-BLUP) was used to predict total seed lipid content in an independent panel of 210 oat lines. The MK-TRGM-BLUP approach significantly improved predictions for total lipid content when compared to a conventional genomic BLUP (gBLUP) approach. Given that the MK-TGRM-BLUP approach leverages information on the nine fatty acids to predict genetic values for total lipid content in unobserved individuals, we compared the MK-TGRM-BLUP approach to a multi-trait gBLUP (MT-gBLUP) approach that jointly fits phenotypes for fatty acids and total lipid content. The MK-TGRM-BLUP approach significantly outperformed MT-gBLUP. Collectively, these results highlight the utility of using TGRM to accommodate information on endophenotypes and improve genomic prediction for a conventional agronomic trait.

Translating insights from the seed metabolome into improved prediction for lipid-composition traits in oat (Avena sativa L.)

Oat (Avena sativa L.) seed is a rich resource of beneficial lipids, soluble fiber, protein, and antioxidants, and is considered a healthful food for humans. Little is known regarding the genetic controllers of variation for these compounds in oat seed. We characterized natural variation in the mature seed metabolome using untargeted metabolomics on 367 diverse lines and leveraged this information to improve prediction for seed quality traits. We used a latent factor approach to define unobserved variables that may drive covariance among metabolites. One hundred latent factors were identified, of which 21% were enriched for compounds associated with lipid metabolism. Through a combination of whole-genome regression and association mapping, we show that latent factors that generate covariance for many metabolites tend to have a complex genetic architecture. Nonetheless, we recovered significant associations for 23% of the latent factors. These associations were used to inform a multi-kernel genomic prediction model, which was used to predict seed lipid and protein traits in two independent studies. Predictions for 8 of the 12 traits were significantly improved compared to genomic best linear unbiased prediction when this prediction model was informed using associations from lipid-enriched factors. This study provides new insights into variation in the oat seed metabolome and provides genomic resources for breeders to improve selection for health-promoting seed quality traits. More broadly, we outline an approach to distill high-dimensional "omics" data to a set of biologically meaningful variables and translate inferences on these data into improved breeding decisions.