Community-wide mesocarnivore response to partial ungulate migration

Effects of resource availability and interspecific interactions on Arctic and red foxes' winter use of ungulate carrion in the Fennoscandian low-Arctic tundra

In the Arctic tundra, predators face recurrent periods of food scarcity and often turn to ungulate carcasses as an alternative food source. As important and localized resource patches, carrion promotes co-occurrence of different individuals, and its use by predators is likely to be affected by interspecific competition. We studied how interspecific competition and resource availability impact winter use of carrion by Arctic and red foxes in low Arctic Fennoscandia. We predicted that the presence of red foxes limits Arctic foxes' use of carrion, and that competition depends on the availability of other resources. We monitored Arctic and red fox presence at supp lied carrion using camera traps. From 2006 to 2021, between 16 and 20 cameras were active for 2 months in late winter (288 camera-winters). Using a multi-species dynamic occupancy model at a week-to-week scale, we evaluated the use of carrion by foxes while accounting for the presence of competitors, rodent availability, and supplemental feeding provided to Arctic foxes. Competition affected carrion use by increasing both species' probability to leave occupied carcasses between consecutive weeks. This increase was similar for the two species, suggesting symmetrical avoidance. Increased rodent abundance was associated with a higher probability of colonizing carrion sites for both species. For Arctic foxes, however, this increase was only observed at carcasses unoccupied by red foxes, showing greater avoidance when alternative preys are available. Supplementary feeding increased Arctic foxes' carrion use, regardless of red fox presence. Contrary to expectations, we did not find strong signs of asymmetric competition for carrion in winter, which suggests that interactions for resources at a short time scale are not necessarily aligned with interactions at the scale of the population. In addition, we found that competition for carcasses depends on the availability of other resources, suggesting that interactions between predators depend on the ecological context.

The significance of partial migration for food web and ecosystem dynamics

Migration is ubiquitous and can strongly shape food webs and ecosystems. Less familiar, however, is that the majority of life cycle, seasonal and diel migrations in nature are partial migrations: only a fraction of the population migrates while the other individuals remain in their resident ecosystem. Here, we demonstrate different impacts of partial migration rendering it fundamental to our understanding of the significance of migration for food web and ecosystem dynamics. First, partial migration affects the spatiotemporal distribution of individuals and the food web and ecosystem-level processes they drive differently than expected under full migration. Second, whether an individual migrates or not is regularly correlated with morphological, physiological, and/or behavioural traits that shape its food-web and ecosystem-level impacts. Third, food web and ecosystem dynamics can drive the fraction of the population migrating, enabling the potential for feedbacks between the causes and consequences of migration within and across ecosystems. These impacts, individually and in combination, can yield unintuitive effects of migration and drive the dynamics, diversity and functions of ecosystems. By presenting the first full integration of partial migration and trophic (meta-)community and (meta-)ecosystem ecology, we provide a roadmap for studying how migration affects and is affected by ecosystem dynamics in a changing world.

Estimating red fox density using non-invasive genetic sampling and spatial capture-recapture modelling

Spatial capture–recapture modelling (SCR) is a powerful tool for estimating density, population size, and space use of elusive animals. Here, we applied SCR modelling to non-invasive genetic sampling (NGS) data to estimate red fox (Vulpes vulpes) densities in two areas of boreal forest in central (2016–2018) and southern Norway (2017–2018). Estimated densities were overall lower in the central study area (mean = 0.04 foxes per km² in 2016, 0.10 in 2017, and 0.06 in 2018) compared to the southern study area (0.16 in 2017 and 0.09 in 2018). We found a positive effect of forest cover on density in the central, but not the southern study area. The absence of an effect in the southern area may reflect a paucity of evidence caused by low variation in forest cover. Estimated mean home-range size in the central study area was 45 km² [95%CI 34–60] for females and 88 km² [69–113] for males. Mean home-range sizes were smaller in the southern study area (26 km² [16–42] for females and 56 km² [35–91] for males). In both study areas, detection probability was session-dependent and affected by sampling effort. This study highlights how SCR modelling in combination with NGS can be used to efficiently monitor red fox populations, and simultaneously incorporate ecological factors and estimate their effects on population density and space use.

Effect of scavenging on predation in a food web

Scavenging can have important consequences for food web dynamics, for example, it may support additional consumer species and affect predation on live prey. Still, few food web models include scavenging. We develop a dynamic model that includes two facultative scavenger species, which we refer to as the predator or scavenger species according to their natural scavenging propensity, as well as live prey, and a carrion pool to show ramifications of scavenging for predation in simple food webs. Our modeling suggests that the presence of scavengers can both increase and decrease predator kill rates and overall predation in model food webs and the impact varies (in magnitude and direction) with context. In particular, we explore the impact of the amount of dynamics (exploitative competition) allowed in the predator, scavenger, and prey populations as well as the direction and magnitude of interference competition between predators and scavengers. One fundamental prediction is that scavengers most likely increase predator kill rates, especially if there are exploitative feedback effects on the prey or carrion resources like is normally observed in natural systems. Scavengers only have minimal effects on predator kill rate when predator, scavenger, and prey abundances are kept constant by management. In such controlled systems, interference competition can greatly affect the interactions in contrast to more natural systems, with an increase in interference competition leading to a decrease in predator kill rate. Our study adds to studies that show that the presence of predators affects scavenger behavior, vital rates, and food web structure, by showing that scavengers impact predator kill rates through multiple mechanisms, and therefore indicating that scavenging and predation patterns are tightly intertwined. We provide a road map to the different theoretical outcomes and their support from different empirical studies on vertebrate guilds to provide guidance in wildlife management.

Extreme home range sizes among Eurasian lynx at the northern edge of their biogeographic range

Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) have a wide distribution across Eurasia. The northern edge of this distribution is in Norway, where they reach up to 72 degrees north. We conducted a study of lynx space use in this region from 2007 to 2013 using GPS telemetry. The home range sizes averaged 2,606 (± 438 SE) km2 for males (n = 9 ranges) and 1,456 (± 179 SE) km2 for females (n = 24 ranges). These are the largest home ranges reported for any large felid, and indeed are only matched by polar bears, arctic living wolves, and grizzly bears among all the Carnivora. The habitat occupied was almost entirely treeless alpine tundra, with home ranges only containing from 20% to 25% of forest. These data have clear implications for the spatial planning of lynx management in the far north as the current management zones are located in unsuitable habitats and are not large enough to encompass individual lynx movements.

Spatiotemporal patterns of red fox scavenging in forest and tundra: the influence of prey fluctuations and winter conditions

Concern has been raised regarding red fox (Vulpes Vulpes) population increase and range expansion into alpine tundra, directly and indirectly enhanced by human activities, including carrion supply, and its negative impact on native fauna. In this study, we used cameras on bait stations and hunting remains to investigate how spatiotemporal patterns of red fox scavenging were influenced by abundance and accessibility of live prey, i.e., small rodent population cycles, snow depth, and primary productivity. We found contrasting patterns of scavenging between habitats during winter. In alpine areas, use of baits was highest post rodent peaks and when snow depth was low. This probably reflected relatively higher red fox abundance due to increased reproduction or migration of individuals from neighboring areas, possibly also enhanced by a diet shift. Contrastingly, red fox use of baits in the forest was highest during rodent low phase, and when snow was deep, indicating a higher dependency of carrion under these conditions. Scavenging patterns by red fox on the pulsed but predictable food resource from hunting remains in the autumn revealed no patterns throughout the rodent cycle. In this study, we showed that small rodent dynamics influenced red fox scavenging, at least in winter, but with contrasting patterns depending on environmental conditions. In marginal alpine areas, a numerical response to higher availability of rodents possible lead to the increase in bait visitation the proceeding winter, while in more productive forest areas, low availability of rodents induced a functional diet shift towards scavenging.

Scavenger community structure along an environmental gradient from boreal forest to alpine tundra in Scandinavia

Scavengers can have strong impacts on food webs, and awareness of their role in ecosystems has increased during the last decades. In our study, we used baited camera traps to quantify the structure of the winter scavenger community in central Scandinavia across a forest-alpine continuum and assess how climatic conditions affected spatial patterns of species occurrences at baits. Canonical correspondence analysis revealed that the main habitat type (forest or alpine tundra) and snow depth was main determinants of the community structure. According to a joint species distribution model within the HMSC framework, species richness tended to be higher in forest than in alpine tundra habitat, but was only weakly associated with temperature and snow depth. However, we observed stronger and more diverse impacts of these covariates on individual species. Occurrence at baits by habitat generalists (red fox, golden eagle, and common raven) typically increased at low temperatures and high snow depth, probably due to increased energetic demands and lower abundance of natural prey in harsh winter conditions. On the contrary, occurrence at baits by forest specialists (e.g., Eurasian jay) tended to decrease in deep snow, which is possibly a consequence of reduced bait detectability and accessibility. In general, the influence of environmental covariates on species richness and occurrence at baits was lower in alpine tundra than in forests, and habitat generalists dominated the scavenger communities in both forest and alpine tundra. Following forecasted climate change, altered environmental conditions are likely to cause range expansion of boreal species and range contraction of typical alpine species such as the arctic fox. Our results suggest that altered snow conditions will possibly be a main driver of changes in species community structure.

End-user involvement to improve predictions and management of populations with complex dynamics and multiple drivers

Sustainable management of wildlife populations can be aided by building models that both identify current drivers of natural dynamics and provide near-term predictions of future states. We employed a Strategic Foresight Protocol (SFP) involving stakeholders to decide the purpose and structure of a dynamic state-space model for the population dynamics of the Willow Ptarmigan, a popular game species in Norway. Based on local knowledge of stakeholders, it was decided that the model should include food web interactions and climatic drivers to provide explanatory predictions. Modeling confirmed observations from stakeholders that climate change impacts Ptarmigan populations negatively through intensified outbreaks of insect defoliators and later onset of winter. Stakeholders also decided that the model should provide anticipatory predictions. The ability to forecast population density ahead of the harvest season was valued by the stakeholders as it provides the management extra time to consider appropriate harvest regulations and communicate with hunters prior to the hunting season. Overall, exploring potential drivers and predicting short-term future states, facilitate collaborative learning and refined data collection, monitoring designs, and management priorities. Our experience from adapting a SFP to a management target with inherently complex dynamics and drivers of environmental change, is that an open, flexible, and iterative process, rather than a rigid step-wise protocol, facilitates rapid learning, trust, and legitimacy.

The impact of human land use and landscape productivity on population dynamics of red fox in southeastern Norway

In the boreal forest, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) is a key species due to its many strong food web linkages and its exploitation of niches that form in the wake of human activities. Recent altitudinal range expansion and a perceived population increase have become topics of concern in Scandinavia, primarily due to the potential impacts of red foxes on both prey and competitor species. However, despite it being a common species, there is still surprisingly little knowledge about the temporal and spatial characteristics of its population dynamics. In this study, we synthesized 12 years of snow-track transect data covering a 27,000-km2 study area to identify factors associated with red fox distribution and population dynamics. Using Bayesian hierarchical regression models, we evaluated the relationships of landscape productivity and climate gradients as well as anthropogenic subsidies with an index of red fox population size and growth rates. We found that landscapes with high human settlement density and large amounts of gut piles from moose (Alces alces) hunting were associated with higher red fox abundances. Population dynamics were characterized by direct density-dependent growth, and the structure of density dependence was best explained by the amount of agricultural land in the landscape. Population equilibrium levels increased, and populations were more stable, in areas with a higher presence of agricultural lands, whereas density-dependent population growth was more prominent in areas of low agricultural presence. We conclude that human land use is a dominant driver of red fox population dynamics in the boreal forest. We encourage further research focusing on contrasting effects of anthropogenic subsidization on predator population carrying capacities and temporal stability, and potential impacts on prey dynamics.

Refrigeration or anti-theft? Food-caching behavior of wolverines (Gulo gulo) in Scandinavia

Abstract

Food-caching animals can gain nutritional advantages by buffering seasonality in food availability, especially during times of scarcity. The wolverine (Gulo gulo) is a facultative predator that occupies environments of low productivity. As an adaptation to fluctuating food availability, wolverines cache perishable food in snow, boulders, and bogs for short- and long-term storage. We studied caching behavior of 38 GPS-collared wolverines in four study areas in Scandinavia. By investigating clusters of GPS locations, we identified a total of 303 food caches from 17 male and 21 female wolverines. Wolverines cached food all year around, from both scavenging and predation events, and spaced their caches widely within their home range. Wolverines cached food items on average 1.1 km from the food source and made between 1 and 6 caches per source. Wolverines cached closer to the source when scavenging carcasses killed by other large carnivores; this might be a strategy to optimize food gain when under pressure of interspecific competition. When caching, wolverines selected for steep and rugged terrain in unproductive habitat types or in forest, indicating a preference for less-exposed sites that can provide cold storage and/or protection against pilferage. The observed year-round investment in caching by wolverines underlines the importance of food predictability for survival and reproductive success in this species. Increasing temperatures as a consequence of climate change may provide new challenges for wolverines by negatively affecting the preservation of cached food and by increasing competition from pilferers that benefit from a warmer climate. It is however still not fully understood which consequences this may have for the demography and behavior of the wolverine.

Significance statement

Food caching is a behavioral strategy used by a wide range of animals to store food for future use. Choosing appropriate caching sites appears important for slowing down decomposition rates and minimizes competition. In this study, we demonstrate that the wolverine, an opportunistic predator and scavenger, utilizes available carrion to create caches all year around. By following wolverines with GPS collars, we registered that they carried food far away to cache it in secluded and cold places, which are often located on steep slopes or in forest. However, when scavenging other carnivores’ prey, they move food in shorter distances, possibly to be able to quickly return for more. The observed efficiency in wolverine caching behavior is likely vital for their survival and reproductive success in the harsh and highly seasonal environment in which they live.

Ecological correlates of the spatial co-occurrence of sympatric mammalian carnivores worldwide

The composition of local mammalian carnivore communities has far-reaching effects on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. To better understand how carnivore communities are structured, we analysed camera trap data for 108 087 trap days across 12 countries spanning five continents. We estimate local probabilities of co-occurrence among 768 species pairs from the order Carnivora and evaluate how shared ecological traits correlate with probabilities of co-occurrence. Within individual study areas, species pairs co-occurred more frequently than expected at random. Co-occurrence probabilities were greatest for species pairs that shared ecological traits including similar body size, temporal activity pattern and diet. However, co-occurrence decreased as compared to other species pairs when the pair included a large-bodied carnivore. Our results suggest that a combination of shared traits and top-down regulation by large carnivores shape local carnivore communities globally.

Why Do the Boreal Forest Ecosystems of Northwestern Europe Differ from Those of Western North America?

The boreal forest is one of the largest terrestrial biomes on Earth. Conifers normally dominate the tree layer across the biome, but other aspects of ecosystem structure and dynamics vary geographically. The cause of the conspicuous differences in the understory vegetation and the herbivore-predator cycles between northwestern Europe and western North America presents an enigma. Ericaceous dwarf shrubs and 3- to 4-year vole-mustelid cycles characterize the European boreal forests, whereas tall deciduous shrubs and 10-year snowshoe hare-lynx cycles characterize the North American ones. We discuss plausible explanations for this difference and conclude that it is bottom-up: Winter climate is the key determinant of the dominant understory vegetation that then determines the herbivore-predator food-web interactions. The crucial unknown for the twenty-first century is how climate change and increasing instability will affect these forests, both with respect to the dynamics of individual plant and animal species and to their community interactions.

Genetic footprints reveal geographic patterns of expansion in Fennoscandian red foxes

Population expansions of boreal species are among the most substantial ecological consequences of climate change, potentially transforming both structure and processes of northern ecosystems. Despite their importance, little is known about expansion dynamics of boreal species. Red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) are forecasted to become a keystone species in northern Europe, a process stemming from population expansions that began in the 19th century. To identify the relative roles of geographic and demographic factors and the sources of northern European red fox population expansion, we genotyped 21 microsatellite loci in modern and historical (1835-1941) Fennoscandian red foxes. Using Bayesian clustering and Bayesian inference of migration rates, we identified high connectivity and asymmetric migration rates across the region, consistent with source-sink dynamics, whereby more recently colonized sampling regions received immigrants from multiple sources. There were no clear clines in allele frequency or genetic diversity as would be expected from a unidirectional range expansion from south to north. Instead, migration inferences, demographic models and comparison to historical red fox genotypes suggested that the population expansion of the red fox is a consequence of dispersal from multiple sources, as well as in situ demographic growth. Together, these findings provide a rare glimpse into the anatomy of a boreal range expansion and enable informed predictions about future changes in boreal communities.