Assessing variation in the costs of care among patients awaiting liver transplantation

Changing landscape of liver transplant in the United States-time for a new innovative way to define and utilize the "non-standard liver allograft"-a proposal

Since the first liver transplant was performed over six decades ago, the landscape of liver transplantation in the US has seen dramatic evolution. Numerous advancements in perioperative and operative techniques have resulted in major improvements in graft and patient survival rates. Despite the increase in transplants performed over the years, the waitlist mortality rate continues to remain high. The obesity epidemic and the resultant metabolic sequelae continue to result in more marginal donors and challenging recipients. In this review, we aim to highlight the changing characteristics of liver transplant recipients and liver allograft donors. We focus on issues relevant in successfully transplanting a high model for end stage liver disease recipient. We provide insights into the current use of terms and definitions utilized to discuss marginal allografts, discuss the need to look into more consistent ways to describe these organs and propose two new concepts we coin as "Liver Allograft Variables" (LAV) and "Liver Allograft Composite Score" (LACS) for this. We discuss the development of spectrum of risk indexes as a dynamic tool to characterize an allograft in real time. We believe that this concept has the potential to optimize the way we allocate, utilize and transplant livers across the US.

Impact of Back-to-Base Normothermic Machine Perfusion on Complications and Costs: A Multicenter, Real-World Risk-Matched Analysis

OBJECTIVE

Assess cost and complication outcomes after liver transplantation (LT) using normothermic machine perfusion (NMP).

BACKGROUND

End-ischemic NMP is often used to aid logistics, yet its impact on outcomes after LT remains unclear, as does its true impact on costs associated with transplantation.

METHODS

Deceased donor liver recipients at 2 centers (January 1, 2019, to June 30, 2023) were included. Retransplants, splits, and combined grafts were excluded. End-ischemic NMP (OrganOx-Metra) was implemented in October 2022 for extended-criteria donation after brain death (DBDs), all donations after circulatory deaths (DCDs), and logistics. NMP cases were matched 1:2 with static cold storage controls (SCS) using the Balance-of-Risk [donation after brain death (DBD)-grafts] and UK-DCD Score (DCD-grafts).

RESULTS

Overall, 803 transplantations were included, 174 (21.7%) receiving NMP. Matching was achieved between 118 NMP-DBDs with 236 SCS; and 37 NMP-DCD with 74 corresponding SCS. For both graft types, median inpatient comprehensive complications index values were comparable between groups. DCD-NMP grafts experienced reduced cumulative 90-day comprehensive complications index (27.6 vs 41.9, P =0.028). NMP also reduced the need for early relaparotomy and renal replacement therapy, with subsequently less frequent major complications (Clavien-Dindo ≥IVa). This effect was more pronounced in DCD transplants. NMP had no protective effect on early biliary complications. Organ acquisition/preservation costs were higher with NMP, yet NMP-treated grafts had lower 90-day pretransplant costs in the context of shorter waiting list times. Overall costs were comparable for both cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first risk-adjusted outcome and cost analysis comparing NMP and SCS. In addition to logistical benefits, NMP was associated with a reduction in relaparotomy and bleeding in DBD grafts, and overall complications and post-LT renal replacement for DCDs. While organ acquisition/preservation was more costly with NMP, overall 90-day health care costs-per-transplantation were comparable.

Technical Variant Liver Transplant Utilization for Pediatric Recipients: Equal Graft Survival to Whole Liver Transplants and Promotion of Timely Transplantation Only When Performed at High-volume Centers

BACKGROUND

Technical variant liver transplantation (TVLT) is a strategy to mitigate persistent pediatric waitlist mortality in the United States, although its implementation remains stagnant. This study investigated the relationship between TVLT utilization, transplant center volume, and graft survival.

METHODS

Pediatric liver transplant recipients from 2010 to 2020 (n = 5208) were analyzed using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients database. Transplant centers were categorized according to the average number of pediatric liver transplants performed per year (high-volume, ≥5; low-volume, <5). Graft survival rates were compared using Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify predictors of graft failure.

RESULTS

High-volume centers demonstrated equivalent whole liver transplant and TVLT graft survival ( P = 0.057) and significantly improved TVLT graft survival compared with low-volume centers ( P < 0.001). Transplantation at a low-volume center was significantly associated with graft failure (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-2.24; P = 0.007 in patients <12 y old and 1.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-2.87; P = 0.013 in patients ≥12 y old). A subset of high-volume centers with a significantly higher rate of TVLT use demonstrated a 23% reduction in waitlist mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Prompt transplantation with increased TVLT utilization at high-volume centers may reduce pediatric waitlist mortality without compromising graft survival.

Normothermic Machine Perfusion of Donor Livers for Transplantation in the United States: A Randomized Controlled Trial

OBJECTIVE

To compare conventional low-temperature storage of transplant donor livers [static cold storage (SCS)] with storage of the organs at physiological body temperature [normothermic machine perfusion (NMP)].

BACKGROUND

The high success rate of liver transplantation is constrained by the shortage of transplantable organs (eg, waiting list mortality >20% in many centers). NMP maintains the liver in a functioning state to improve preservation quality and enable testing of the organ before transplantation. This is of greatest potential value with organs from brain-dead donor organs (DBD) with risk factors (age and comorbidities), and those from donors declared dead by cardiovascular criteria (donation after circulatory death).

METHODS

Three hundred eighty-three donor organs were randomized by 15 US liver transplant centers to undergo NMP (n = 192) or SCS (n = 191). Two hundred sixty-six donor livers proceeded to transplantation (NMP: n = 136; SCS: n = 130). The primary endpoint of the study was "early allograft dysfunction" (EAD), a marker of early posttransplant liver injury and function.

RESULTS

The difference in the incidence of EAD did not achieve significance, with 20.6% (NMP) versus 23.7% (SCS). Using exploratory, "as-treated" rather than "intent-to-treat," subgroup analyses, there was a greater effect size in donation after circulatory death donor livers (22.8% NMP vs 44.6% SCS) and in organs in the highest risk quartile by donor risk (19.2% NMP vs 33.3% SCS). The incidence of acute cardiovascular decompensation at organ reperfusion, "postreperfusion syndrome," as a secondary outcome was reduced in the NMP arm (5.9% vs 14.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

NMP did not lower EAD, perhaps related to the inclusion of lower-risk liver donors, as higher-risk donor livers seemed to benefit more. The technology is safe in standard organ recovery and seems to have the greatest benefit for marginal donors.

Despite Increasing Costs, Perfusion Machines Expand the Donor Pool of Livers and Could Save Lives

INTRODUCTION

Liver transplantation is a highly successful treatment for liver failure and disease. However, demand continues to outstrip our ability to provide transplantation as a treatment. Many livers initially considered for transplantation are not used because of concerns about their viability or logistical issues. Recent clinical trials have shown discarded livers may be viable if they undergo machine perfusion, which allows a more objective assessment of liver quality.

METHODS

Using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients dataset, we examined discarded and unretrieved organs to determine their eligibility for perfusion. We then used a Markov decision-analytic model to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of two competing transplant strategies: Static Cold Storage (SCS) alone versus Static Cold Storage and Normothermic Machine Perfusion (NMP) of discarded organs.

RESULTS

The average predicted successful transplants after perfusion was 385, representing a 5.8% increase in the annual yield of liver transplants. Our cost-effectiveness analysis found that the SCS strategy generated 4.64 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and cost $479,226. The combined SCS + NMP strategy generated 4.72 QALYs and cost $481,885. The combined SCS + NMP strategy had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $33,575 per additional QALY over the 10-year study horizon.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine perfusion of livers currently not considered viable for transplant could increase the number of transplantable grafts by approximately 5% per year and is cost-effective compared to Static Cold Storage alone.

Viability testing of discarded livers with normothermic machine perfusion: Alleviating the organ shortage outweighs the cost

BACKGROUND

Over 700 donor livers are discarded annually in the United States due to high risk of poor graft function. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of using normothermic machine perfusion to identify transplantable livers among those currently discarded.

STUDY DESIGN

A series of 21 discarded human livers underwent viability assessment during normothermic machine perfusion. Cross-sectional analysis of the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients database and cost analysis was performed to extrapolate the case series to national experience.

RESULTS

21 discarded human livers were included in the perfusion cohort. 11 of 20 (55%) eligible grafts met viability criteria for transplantation. Grafts in the perfusion cohort had a similar donor risk index compared with discarded grafts (n = 1402) outside of New England in 2017 and 2018 (median [IQR]: 2.0 [1.5, 2.4] vs. 2.0 [1.7, 2.3], P = .40). 705 (IQR 677-741) livers were discarded annually in the United States since 2005, translating to the potential for 398 additional transplants nationally. The median cost to identify a transplantable graft with machine perfusion was $28,099 USD.

CONCLUSIONS

Normothermic machine perfusion of discarded livers could identify a significant number of transplantable grafts, significantly improving access to liver transplantation.

EVALUATION AND SELECTION OF CANDIDATES FOR LIVER TRANSPLANTATION: AN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE

BACKGROUND

Over the next 20 years, the number of patients on the waiting list for liver transplantation (LTx) is expected to increase by 23%, while pre-LTx costs should raise by 83%.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate direct medical costs of the pre-LTx period from the perspective of a tertiary care center.

METHODS

The study included 104 adult patients wait-listed for deceased donor LTx between October 2012 and May 2016 whose treatment was fully provided at the study transplant center. Clinical and economic data were obtained from electronic medical records and from a hospital management software. Outcomes of interest and costs of patients on the waiting list were compared through the Kruskal-Wallis test. A generalized linear model with logit link function was used for multivariate analysis. P-values <0.05 were considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

The costs of patients who underwent LTx ($8,879.83; 95% CI 6,735.24-11,707.27; P<0.001) or who died while waiting ($6,464.73; 95% CI 3,845.75-10,867.28; P=0.04) were higher than those of patients who were excluded from the list for any reason except death ($4,647.78; 95% CI 2,469.35-8,748.04; P=0.254) or those who remained on the waiting list at the end of follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Although protocols of inclusion on the waiting list vary among transplant centers, similar approaches exist and common problems should be addressed. The results of this study may help centers with similar socioeconomic realities adjust their transplant policies.

Economic impacts of alternative kidney transplant immunosuppression: A national cohort study

Understanding the economic implications of induction and maintenance immunosuppression (ISx) is important in developing personalized kidney transplant (KTx) care. Using data from a novel integrated data set including financial records from the University Health System Consortium, Medicare, and pharmacy claims (2007-2014), we estimated the differences in the impact of induction and maintenance ISx regimens on transplant hospitalization costs and Medicare payments from KTx to 3 years. Use of thymoglobulin (TMG) significantly increased transplant hospitalization costs ($12 006; P = .02), compared with alemtuzumab and basiliximab. TMG resulted in lower Medicare payments in posttransplant years 1 (-$2058; P = .05) and 2 (-$1784; P = .048). Patients on steroid-sparing ISx incurred relatively lower total Medicare spending (-$10 880; P = .01) compared with patients on triple therapy (tacrolimus, antimetabolite, and steroids). MPA/AZA-sparing, mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors-based, and cyclosporine-based maintenance ISx regimens were associated with significantly higher payments. Alternative ISx regimens were associated with different KTx hospitalization costs and longer-term payments. Future studies of clinical efficacy should also consider cost impacts to define the economic effectiveness of alternative ISx regimens.

Potential savings in the treatment pathway of liver transplantation: an inter-sectorial analysis of cost-rising factors

INTRODUCTION

Identification of cost-driving factors in patients undergoing liver transplantation is essential to target reallocation of resources and potential savings.

AIM

The aim of this study is to identify main cost-driving factors in liver transplantation from the perspective of the Statutory Health Insurance.

METHODS

Variables were analyzed with multivariable logistic regression to determine their influence on high cost cases (fourth quartile) in the outpatient, inpatient and rehabilitative healthcare sectors as well as for medications.

RESULTS

Significant cost-driving factors for the inpatient sector of care were a high labMELD-score (OR 1.042), subsequent re-transplantations (OR 7.159) and patient mortality (OR 3.555). Expenditures for rehabilitative care were significantly higher in patients with a lower adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (OR 0.601). The indication of viral cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma resulted in significantly higher costs for medications (OR 21.618 and 7.429). For all sectors of care and medications each waiting day had a significant impact on high treatment costs (OR 1.001). Overall, cost-driving factors resulted in higher median treatment costs of 211,435 €.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment costs in liver transplantation were significantly influenced by identified factors. Long pre-transplant waiting times that increase overall treatment costs need to be alleviated by a substantial increase in donor organs to enable transplantation with lower labMELD-scores. Disease management programs, the implementation of a case management for vulnerable patients, medication plans and patient tracking in a transplant registry may enable cost savings, e.g., by the avoidance of otherwise necessary re-transplants or incorrect medication.

Women on the liver transplantation waitlist are at increased risk of hospitalization compared to men

BACKGROUND

Hospital admissions are common among patients with cirrhosis, but patient factors associated with hospitalization have not been well characterized. Given recent data suggesting increased liver transplant waitlist dropout among women, we hypothesized that women on the liver transplant waitlist would have increased rates of hospitalization compared with men.

AIM

To evaluate the role of gender on risk of hospitalization for patients on the liver transplant waitlist, in order to help explain gender disparities in waitlist outcomes.

METHODS

Patients listed for liver transplant at a single center in the United States were prospectively enrolled in the Functional Assessment in Liver Transplantation Study. Patients included in this retrospective analysis included those enrolled between March 2012 and December 2014 with at least 12 mo of follow up and without hepatocellular carcinoma. The primary and secondary outcomes were hospitalization and total inpatient days within 12 mo, respectively. Logistic and negative binomial regression associated baseline factors with outcomes.

RESULTS

Of the 392 patients, 41% were female, with median (interquartile range) age 58 years (52-63) and model for end- stage liver disease 18 (15-22). Within 12 mo, 186 (47%) patients were hospitalized ≥ 1 time; 48% were readmitted, with a median of 8 (4-15) inpatient days. More women than men were hospitalized (54% vs 43%; P = 0.03). In univariable analysis, female sex was associated with an increased risk of hospitalization [odds ratios (OR) 1.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.0-2.4; P = 0.03], which remained significant on adjusted multivariable analysis (OR 1.6, 95%CI: 1.1-2.6; P = 0.03). Female gender was also associated with an increased number of inpatient days within 12 mo in both univariable and multivariable regression.

CONCLUSION

Women with cirrhosis on the liver transplant waitlist have more hospitalizations and inpatient days in one year compared with men, suggesting that the experience of cirrhosis differs between men and women, despite similar baseline illness severity. Future studies should explore gender-specific vulnerabilities to help explain waitlist disparities.

Recipient characteristics and morbidity and mortality after liver transplantation

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Over the last decade, liver transplantation of sicker, older non-hepatitis C cirrhotics with multiple co-morbidities has increased in the United States. We sought to identify an easily applicable set of recipient factors among HCV negative adult transplant recipients associated with significant morbidity and mortality within five years after liver transplantation.

METHODS

We collected national (n = 31,829, 2002-2015) and center-specific data. Coefficients of relevant recipient factors were converted to weighted points and scaled from 0-5. Recipient factors associated with graft failure included: ventilator support (five patients; hazard ratio [HR] 1.59; 95% CI 1.48-1.72); recipient age >60 years (three patients; HR 1.29; 95% CI 1.23-1.36); hemodialysis (three patients; HR 1.26; 95% CI 1.16-1.37); diabetes (two patients; HR 1.20; 95% CI 1.14-1.27); or serum creatinine ≥1.5 mg/dl without hemodialysis (two patients; HR 1.15; 95% CI 1.09-1.22).

RESULTS

Graft survival within five years based on points (any combination) was 77.2% (0-4), 69.1% (5-8) and 57.9% (>8). In recipients with >8 points, graft survival was 42% (model for end-stage liver disease [MELD] score <25) and 50% (MELD score 25-35) in recipients receiving grafts from donors with a donor risk index >1.7. In center-specific data within the first year, subjects with ≥5 points (vs. 0-4) had longer hospitalization (11 vs. 8 days, p <0.01), higher admissions for rehabilitation (12.3% vs. 2.7%, p <0.01), and higher incidence of cardiac disease (14.2% vs. 5.3%, p <0.01) and stage 3 chronic kidney disease (78.6% vs. 39.5%, p = 0.03) within five years.

CONCLUSION

The impact of co-morbidities in an MELD-based organ allocation system need to be reassessed. The proposed clinical tool may be helpful for center-specific assessment of risk of graft failure in non-HCV patients and for discussion regarding relevant morbidity in selected subsets.

LAY SUMMARY

Over the last decade, liver transplantation of sicker, older patient with multiple co-morbidities has increased. In this study, we show that a set of recipient factors (recipient age >60 years, ventilator status, diabetes, hemodialysis and creatinine >1.5 mg/dl) can help identify patients that may not do well after transplant. Transplanting sicker organs in patients with certain combinations of these characteristics leads to lower survival.

MELD as a metric for survival benefit of liver transplantation

Currently, there is debate among the liver transplant community regarding the most appropriate mechanism for organ allocation: urgency-based (MELD) versus utility-based (survival benefit). We hypothesize that MELD and survival benefit are closely associated, and therefore, our current MELD-based allocation already reflects utility-based allocation. We used generalized gamma parametric models to quantify survival benefit of LT across MELD categories among 74 196 adult liver-only active candidates between 2006 and 2016 in the United States. We calculated time ratios (TR) of relative life expectancy with transplantation versus without and calculated expected life years gained after LT. LT extended life expectancy (TR > 1) for patients with MELD > 10. The highest MELD was associated with the longest relative life expectancy (TR = _1.05 1.20_1.37 for MELD 11-15, _2.29 2.49_2.70 for MELD 16-20, _5.30 5.72_6.16 for MELD 21-25, _15.12 16.35_17.67 for MELD 26-30; _39.26 43.21_47.55 for MELD 31-34; _120.04 128.25_137.02 for MELD 35-40). As a result, candidates with the highest MELD gained the most life years after LT: 0.2, 1.5, 3.5, 5.8, 6.9, 7.2 years for MELD 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-34, 35-40, respectively. Therefore, prioritizing candidates by MELD remains a simple, effective strategy for prioritizing candidates with a higher transplant survival benefit over those with lower survival benefit.

Healthcare utilization after liver transplantation is highly variable among both centers and recipients

The relationship between healthcare utilization before and after liver transplantation (LT), and its association with center characteristics, is incompletely understood. This was a retrospective cohort study of 34 402 adult LTs between 2002 and 2013 using Vizient inpatient claims data linked to the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database. Multivariable mixed-effects linear regression models evaluated the association between hospitalization 90 days pre-LT and the number of days alive and out of the hospital (DAOH) 1 year post-LT. Of those patients alive at LT discharge, 24.7% spent ≥30 days hospitalized during the first year. Hospitalization in the 90 days pre-LT was inversely associated with DAOH (β = -3.4 DAOH/week hospitalized pre-LT; P = .002). Centers with >30% of their liver transplant recipients hospitalized ≥30 days in the first LT year were typically smaller volume and/or transplanting higher risk recipients (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease [MELD] score ≥35, inpatient or ventilated pre-LT). In conclusion, pre-LT hospitalization predicts 1-year post-LT hospitalization independent of MELD score at the patient-level, whereas center-specific post-LT healthcare utilization is associated with certain center behaviors and selection practices.

Functional status, healthcare utilization, and the costs of liver transplantation

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score predicts higher transplant healthcare utilization and costs; however, the independent contribution of functional status towards costs is understudied. The study objective was to evaluate the association between functional status, as measured by Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), and liver transplant (LT) costs in the first posttransplant year. In a cohort of 598 LT recipients from July 1, 2009 to November 30, 2014, multivariable models assessed associations between KPS and outcomes. LT recipients needing full assistance (KPS 10%-40%) vs being independent (KPS 80%-100%) were more likely to be discharged to a rehabilitation facility after LT (22% vs 3%) and be rehospitalized within the first posttransplant year (78% vs 57%), all P < .001. In adjusted generalized linear models, in addition to MELD (P < .001), factors independently associated with higher 1-year post-LT transplant costs were older age, poor functional status (KPS 10%-40%), living donor LT, pre-LT hemodialysis, and the donor risk index (all P < .001). One-year survival for patients in the top cost decile was 83% vs 93% for the rest of the cohort (log rank P < .001). Functional status is an important determinant of posttransplant resource utilization; therefore, standardized measurements of functional status should be considered to optimize candidate selection and outcomes.

Xenogeneic chimera-Generated by blastocyst complementation-As a potential unlimited source of recipient-tailored organs

Blastocyst complementation refers to the injection of cells into a blastocyst. The technology allows for the creation of chimeric animals, which have the potential to be used as an unlimited source of organ donors. Pluripotent stem cells could be generated from a patient in need of a transplantation and injected into a large animal blastocyst (potentially of a pig), leading to the creation of organ(s) allowing immunosuppression-free transplantation. Various chimera combinations have already been generated, but one of the most recent steps leads to the creation of human-pig chimeras, which could be studied at an embryo stage. Although still far from clinical reality, the potential application is almost unlimited. The present review illustrates the historical steps of intra- and interspecific blastocyst complementation in rodents and large animals, specifically looking at its potential for generation of organ grafts. We also speculate on how it could change transplant indications, on its economic impact, and on the linked ethical concerns.

Treatment of patients waitlisted for liver transplant with all-oral direct-acting antivirals is a cost-effective treatment strategy in the United States

All-oral direct acting antivirals (DAAs) have been shown to have high safety and efficacy in treating patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) awaiting liver transplant (LT). However, there is limited empirical evidence comparing the health and economic outcomes associated with treating patients pre-LT versus post-LT. The objective of this study was to analyze the cost-effectiveness of pre-LT versus post-LT treatment with an all-oral DAA regimen among HCV patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or decompensated cirrhosis (DCC). We constructed decision-analytic Markov models of the natural disease progression of HCV in HCC patients and DCC patients waitlisted for LT. The model followed hypothetical cohorts of 1,000 patients with a mean age of 50 over a 30-year time horizon from a third-party US payer perspective and estimated their health and cost outcomes based on pre-LT versus post-LT treatment with an all-oral DAA regimen. Transition probabilities and utilities were based on the literature and hepatologist consensus. Sustained virological response rates were sourced from ASTRAL-4, SOLAR-1, and SOLAR-2. Costs were sourced from RedBook, Medicare fee schedules, and published literature. In the HCC analysis, the pre-LT treatment strategy resulted in 11.48 per-patient quality-adjusted life years and $365,948 per patient lifetime costs versus 10.39 and $283,696, respectively, in the post-LT arm. In the DCC analysis, the pre-LT treatment strategy resulted in 9.27 per-patient quality-adjusted life years and $304,800 per patient lifetime costs versus 8.7 and $283,789, respectively, in the post-LT arm. As such, the pre-LT treatment strategy was found to be the most cost-effective in both populations with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $74,255 (HCC) and $36,583 (DCC). Sensitivity and scenario analyses showed that results were most sensitive to the utility of patients post-LT, treatment sustained virological response rates, LT costs, and baseline Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score (DCC analysis only).

CONCLUSION

The timing of initiation of antiviral treatment for HCV patients with HCC or DCC relative to LT is an important area of clinical and policy research; our results indicate that pre-LT treatment with a highly effective, all-oral DAA regimen provides the best health outcomes and is the most cost-effective strategy for the treatment of HCV patients with HCC or DCC waitlisted for LT. (Hepatology 2017;66:46-56).

Phase angle obtained by bioelectrical impedance analysis independently predicts mortality in patients with cirrhosis

AIM

To evaluate the prognostic value of the phase angle (PA) obtained from bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) for mortality prediction in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

In total, 134 male cirrhotic patients prospectively completed clinical evaluations and nutritional assessment by BIA to obtain PAs during a 36-mo follow-up period. Mortality risk was analyzed by applying the PA cutoff point recently proposed as a malnutrition marker (PA ≤ 4.9°) in Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariate Cox regression models.

RESULTS

The patients were divided into two groups according to the PA cutoff value (PA > 4.9°, n = 73; PA ≤ 4.9°, n = 61). Weight, height, and body mass index were similar in both groups, but patients with PAs > 4.9° were younger and had higher mid-arm muscle circumference, albumin, and handgrip-strength values and lower severe ascites and encephalopathy incidences, interleukin (IL)-6/IL-10 ratios and C-reactive protein levels than did patients with PAs ≤ 4.9° (P ≤ 0.05). Forty-eight (35.80%) patients died due to cirrhosis, with a median of 18 mo (interquartile range, 3.3-25.6 mo) follow-up until death. Thirty-one (64.60%) of these patients were from the PA ≤ 4.9° group. PA ≤ 4.9° significantly and independently affected the mortality model adjusted for Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score and age (hazard ratio = 2.05, 95%CI: 1.11-3.77, P = 0.021). In addition, Kaplan-Meier curves showed that patients with PAs ≤ 4.9° were significantly more likely to die.

CONCLUSION

In male patients with cirrhosis, the PA ≤ 4.9° cutoff was associated independently with mortality and identified patients with worse metabolic, nutritional, and disease progression profiles. The PA may be a useful and reliable bedside tool to evaluate prognosis in cirrhosis.

Preliver transplant red cell distribution width predicts postliver transplant mortality

PURPOSE

Prognostication following liver transplantation is limited. Red cell distribution width (RDW) has been associated with morbidity and mortality in a variety of diseases. We hypothesize RDW is predictive of mortality postliver transplantation.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of all consecutive liver transplantation recipients at a tertiary care center from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2012. The primary end point was association of RDW with one-year mortality. Statistical analysis was performed using the Mann-Whitney test, independent samples t test, and regression analysis. Discrimination was assessed by calculating area under receiver operating curves (AUC). A P-value <.05 was considered significant.

RESULTS

RDW was positively associated with one-year mortality (P<.001). The mean difference for survivors compared to nonsurvivors was 3.9% (95% CI 1.9%-5.9%). The AUC for RDW was 0.831 (95% CI 0.727-0.935), compared to 0.723 (0.539-0.908) for total bilirubin and 0.704 (0.479-0.929) for the international normalized ratio.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this is the first report of an association of RDW with post-LT mortality and the results show the predictive value of pre-LT RDW for one-year mortality.

The Changing Financial Landscape of Renal Transplant Practice: A National Cohort Analysis

Kidney transplantation has become more resource intensive as recipient complexity has increased and average donor quality has diminished over time. A national retrospective cohort study was performed to assess the impact of kidney donor and recipient characteristics on transplant center cost (exclusive of organ acquisition) and Medicare reimbursement. Data from the national transplant registry, University HealthSystem Consortium hospital costs, and Medicare payments for deceased donor (N = 53 862) and living donor (N = 36 715) transplants from 2002 to 2013 were linked and analyzed using multivariate linear regression modeling. Deceased donor kidney transplant costs were correlated with recipient (Expected Post Transplant Survival Score, degree of allosensitization, obesity, cause of renal failure), donor (age, cause of death, donation after cardiac death, terminal creatinine), and transplant (histocompatibility matching) characteristics. Living donor costs rose sharply with higher degrees of allosensitization, and were also associated with obesity, cause of renal failure, recipient work status, and 0-ABDR mismatching. Analysis of Medicare payments for a subsample of 24 809 transplants demonstrated minimal correlation with patient and donor characteristics. In conclusion, the complexity in the landscape of kidney transplantation increases center costs, posing financial disincentives that may reduce organ utilization and limit access for higher-risk populations.

Liver transplantation after share 35: Impact on pretransplant and posttransplant costs and mortality

Share 35 was implemented in 2013 to direct livers to the most urgent candidates by prioritizing Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) ≥ 35 patients. We aim to evaluate this policy's impact on costs and mortality. Our study includes 834 wait-listed patients and 338 patients who received deceased donor, solitary liver transplants at Mayo Clinic between January 2010 and December 2014. Of these patients, 101 (30%) underwent transplantation after Share 35. After Share 35, 29 (28.7%) MELD ≥ 35 patients received transplants, as opposed to 46 (19.4%) in the pre-Share 35 era (P = 0.06). No significant difference in 90-day wait-list mortality (P = 0.29) nor 365-day posttransplant mortality (P = 0.68) was found between patients transplanted before or after Share 35. Mean costs were $3,049 (P = 0.30), $5226 (P = 0.18), and $10,826 (P = 0.03) lower post-Share 35 for the 30-, 90-, and 365-day pretransplant periods, and mean costs were $5010 (P = 0.41) and $5859 (P = 0.57) higher, and $9145 (P = 0.54) lower post-Share 35 for the 30-, 90-, and 365-day posttransplant periods. In conclusion, the added cost of transplanting more MELD ≥ 35 patients may be offset by pretransplant care cost reduction. Despite shifting organs to critically ill patients, Share 35 has not impacted mortality significantly. Liver Transplantation 23:11-18 2017 AASLD.

The Impact of Redistricting Proposals on Health Care Expenditures for Liver Transplant Candidates and Recipients

Redistricting, which means sharing organs in novel districts developed through mathematical optimization, has been proposed to reduce pervasive geographic disparities in access to liver transplantation. The economic impact of redistricting was evaluated with two distinct data sources, Medicare claims and the University HealthSystem Consortium (UHC). We estimated total Medicare payments under (i) the current allocation system (Share 35), (ii) full regional sharing, (iii) an eight-district plan, and (iv) a four-district plan for a simulated population of patients listed for liver transplant over 5 years, using the liver simulated allocation model. The model predicted 5-year transplant volumes (Share 35, 29,267; regional sharing, 29,005; eight districts, 29,034; four districts, 28,265) and a reduction in overall mortality, including listed and posttransplant patients, of up to 676 lives. Compared with current allocation, the eight-district plan was estimated to reduce payments for pretransplant care ($1638 million to $1506 million, p < 0.001), transplant episode ($5607 million to $5569 million, p < 0.03) and posttransplant care ($479 million to $488 million, p < 0.001). The eight-district plan was estimated to increase per-patient transportation costs for organs ($8988 to $11,874 per patient, p < 0.001) and UHC estimated hospital costs ($4699 per case). In summary, redistricting appears to be potentially cost saving for the health care system but will increase the cost of performing liver transplants for some transplant centers.

Hyperglycemia and Diabetes Mellitus Following Organ Transplantation

Hyperglycemia is common following organ transplantation, regardless of the pre-transplant diabetes status. Transient post-transplant hyperglycemia and/or new-onset diabetes after transplantation (NODAT) are common and are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. NODAT and type 2 diabetes share similar characteristics, but the pathophysiology may differ. Immunosuppressive agents and steroids play a key role in the development of NODAT. Glycemic control is challenging in this population due to fluctuating renal/end-organ function, immunosuppressive dosing, nutritional status, and drug-drug interactions. A proactive and multidisciplinary approach is essential, along with flexible protocols to adjust to patient status, type of organ transplanted, and corticosteroid regimens. Insulin is the preferred agent for hospitalized patients and during the early post-transplant period; optimal glycemic control (BG < 180 mg/dl with minimal hypoglycemia [<70 mg/dl]) is desired.

Survival outcomes in liver transplant recipients with Model for End-stage Liver Disease scores of 40 or higher: a decade-long experience

BACKGROUND

The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) has been used as a prognostic tool since 2002 to predict pre-transplant mortality. Increasing proportions of transplant candidates with higher MELD scores, combined with improvements in transplant outcomes, mandate the need to study surgical outcomes in patients with MELD scores of ≥40.

METHODS

A retrospective longitudinal analysis of United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) data on all liver transplantations performed between February 2002 and June 2011 (n = 33,398) stratified by MELD score (<30, 30-39, ≥40) was conducted. The primary outcomes of interest were short- and longterm graft and patient survival. A Kaplan-Meier product limit method and Cox regression were used. A subanalysis using a futile population was performed to determine futility predictors.

RESULTS

Of the 33,398 transplant recipients analysed, 74% scored <30, 18% scored 30-39, and 8% scored ≥40 at transplantation. Recipients with MELD scores of ≥40 were more likely to be younger (P < 0.001), non-White and to have shorter waitlist times (P < 0.001). Overall patient survival correlated inversely with increasing MELD score; this trend was consistent for both short-term (30 days and 90 days) and longterm (1, 3 and 5 years) graft and patient survival. In multivariate analysis, increasing age, African-American ethnicity, donor obesity and diabetes were negative predictors of survival. Futility predictors included patient age of >60 years, obesity, peri-transplantation intensive care unit hospitalization with ventilation, and multiple comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

Liver transplantation in recipients with MELD scores of ≥40 offers acceptable longterm survival outcomes. Futility predictors indicate the need for prospective follow-up studies to define the population to gain the highest benefit from this precious resource.

Gerrymandering for Justice: Redistricting U.S. Liver Allocation

U.S. organ allocation policy sequesters livers from deceased donors within arbitrary geographic boundaries, frustrating the intent of those who wish to offer the livers to transplant candidates based on medical urgency. We used a zero-one integer program to partition 58 donor service areas into between four and eight sharing districts that minimize the disparity in liver availability among districts. Because the integer program necessarily suppressed clinically significant differences among patients and organs, we tested the optimized district maps with a discrete-event simulation tool that represents liver allocation at a per-person, per-organ level of detail. In April 2014, the liver committee of the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) decided in a unanimous vote of 22-0-0 to write a policy proposal based on our eight-district and four-district maps. The OPTN board of directors could implement the policy after the proposal and public-comment period.Redistricting liver allocation would save hundreds of lives over the next five years and would attenuate the serious geographic inequity in liver transplant offers.

Increasing the Number of Organ Transplants in the United States by Optimizing Donor Authorization Rates

While recent policies have focused on allocating organs to patients most in need and lessening geographic disparities, the only mechanism to increase the actual number of transplants is to maximize the potential organ supply. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using OPTN data on all "eligible deaths" from 1/1/08 to 11/1/13 to evaluate variability in donor service area (DSA)-level donor authorization rates, and to quantify the potential gains associated with increasing authorization rates. Despite adjustments for donor demographics (age, race/ethnicity, cause of death) and geographic factors (rural/urban status of donor hospital, statewide participation in deceased-donor registries) among 52 571 eligible deaths, there was significant variability (p < 0.001) in donor authorization rates across the 58 DSAs. Overall DSA-level adjusted authorization rates ranged from 63.5% to 89.5% (median: 72.7%). An additional 773-1623 eligible deaths could have been authorized, yielding 2679-5710 total organs, if the DSAs with authorization rates below the median and 75th percentile, respectively, implemented interventions to perform at the level of the corresponding reference DSA. Opportunities exist within the current organ acquisition framework to markedly improve DSA-level donor authorization rates. Such initiatives would mitigate waitlist mortality while increasing the number of transplants.

Future Economics of Liver Transplantation: A 20-Year Cost Modeling Forecast and the Prospect of Bioengineering Autologous Liver Grafts

During the past 20 years liver transplantation has become the definitive treatment for most severe types of liver failure and hepatocellular carcinoma, in both children and adults. In the U.S., roughly 16,000 individuals are on the liver transplant waiting list. Only 38% of them will receive a transplant due to the organ shortage. This paper explores another option: bioengineering an autologous liver graft. We developed a 20-year model projecting future demand for liver transplants, along with costs based on current technology. We compared these cost projections against projected costs to bioengineer autologous liver grafts. The model was divided into: 1) the epidemiology model forecasting the number of wait-listed patients, operated patients and postoperative patients; and 2) the treatment model forecasting costs (pre-transplant-related costs; transplant (admission)-related costs; and 10-year post-transplant-related costs) during the simulation period. The patient population was categorized using the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score. The number of patients on the waiting list was projected to increase 23% over 20 years while the weighted average treatment costs in the pre-liver transplantation phase were forecast to increase 83% in Year 20. Projected demand for livers will increase 10% in 10 years and 23% in 20 years. Total costs of liver transplantation are forecast to increase 33% in 10 years and 81% in 20 years. By comparison, the projected cost to bioengineer autologous liver grafts is $9.7M based on current catalog prices for iPS-derived liver cells. The model projects a persistent increase in need and cost of donor livers over the next 20 years that’s constrained by a limited supply of donor livers. The number of patients who die while on the waiting list will reflect this ever-growing disparity. Currently, bioengineering autologous liver grafts is cost prohibitive. However, costs will decline rapidly with the introduction of new manufacturing strategies and economies of scale.

Model for end-stage liver disease score and MELD exceptions: 15 years later

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score has been used as an objective scale of disease severity for management of patients with end-stage liver disease; it currently serves as the basis of an urgency-based organ-allocation policy in several countries. Implementation of the MELD score led to a reduction in waiting-list registration and waiting-list mortality and an increase in the number of deceased-donor transplants without adversely affecting long-term outcomes after liver transplantation (LT). The MELD score has been used for management of non-transplant patients with chronic liver disease. MELD exceptions serve as a mechanism to advance the needs of subsets of patients with liver disease not adequately addressed by MELD-based organ allocation. Several models have been proposed to refine and improve the MELD score as the environment within which it operates continues to evolve toward transplantation for sicker patients. The MELD score continues to serve and be used as a template to improve upon as an objective gauge of disease severity and as a metric enabling optimization of allocation of scarce donor organs for LT.

Outcomes in liver transplantation: does sex matter?

A growing literature has highlighted important differences in transplant-related outcomes between men and women. In the United States there are fewer women than men on the liver transplant waitlist and women are two times less likely to receive a deceased or living-related liver transplant. Sex-based differences exist not only in waitlist but also in post-transplant outcomes, particularly in some specific liver diseases, such as hepatitis C. In the era of individualized medicine, recognition of these differences in the approach to pre and post-liver transplant care may impact short and long-term outcomes.

The race to liver transplantation: a comparison of patients with and without hepatocellular carcinoma from listing to post-transplantation

BACKGROUND

There are geographic and disease-specific inequities in liver allograft distribution. We examined differences between hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and non-HCC liver transplantation (LT) candidates from listing through LT in a region with prolonged wait times.

STUDY DESIGN

We performed a single-center retrospective study, from 2005 to 2013, of adult, primary, nonstatus 1 candidates who were listed and subsequently underwent LT (n=270), or were removed because of death or clinical deterioration (n=277).

RESULTS

Of the HCC candidates removed from the waitlist (n=184), 5.5% died waiting, 25.5% deteriorated clinically, and 69% had LT. Of the non-HCC candidates (n=363), 38.8% died waiting, 21.8% clinically deteriorated, and 39.4% had LT. Of the LT recipients, 127 (47%) had HCC. When compared with non-HCC transplant recipients, HCC recipients spent more time on the waitlist (435±475 vs 301±604 days, p=0.045) and from listing until LT had higher total pre-transplant hospital admissions per patient (1.1±1.2 vs 0.8±1.8, p<0.001). These admissions were more often planned (0.65±0.88 vs 0.17±0.52 planned admissions per patient, p<0.001) and of shorter duration (2.7±2.8 vs 5.2±4.6 days, p<0.001). The HCC and non-HCC recipients demonstrated similar overall post-transplant survival (5 year 80% vs. 83%, respectively; p=0.84).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a shorter wait to have LT, non-HCC candidates at our center have inferior waitlist outcomes. National reprioritization of liver allocation to improve access for non-HCC candidates may lead to increased wait time and resource use for the HCC population; however, a mortality benefit may exist for the non-HCC candidate lacking the benefit of time.

Evolving trends in liver transplantation: listing and liver donor allocation

The success of liver transplantation in the past three decades as a life-saving procedure for patients with end-stage liver disease has led to the ever-increasing disparity between the demands for liver transplantation and the supply of donor liver organs. Donor allocation and distribution remains a challenge and a moral issue as to how these organs can be equitably distributed. This article reviews the evolution of the liver allocation policy and discusses in detail the challenges clinicians face today in this area of medicine.

Health services and policy research in hepatology

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This article examines recent health services and policy research studies in hepatology and liver transplantation.

RECENT FINDINGS

Critical issues include access to medical care, timeliness of referral and consultation, resource utilization in clinical practice, comparative effectiveness research, and the evaluation of care delivery models. Despite policymaking efforts, there continues to be unwarranted variation in access to subspecialty care and liver transplantation services based on race and geographic location. Variations in primary care and specialist awareness of practice guidelines for liver disease contribute to disparities in appropriateness and timeliness of treatments. Defining the cost-effectiveness of increased resource utilization for novel antiviral therapies and liver transplantation continues to stimulate controversy. Few comparative effectiveness studies in hepatology exist to date, yet a growing number of analyses using national datasets will help inform policy in this arena. Identifying care delivery models that demonstrate high value for populations with chronic liver disease is critical in the context of recent healthcare reform efforts.

SUMMARY

Health services and policy research is a growing field of investigation in hepatology and liver transplantation. Further emphasis on research training and workforce development in this area will be critical for understanding and improving patient-centered outcomes for this population.