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Arenas-Castro S, Sillero N. Cross-scale monitoring of habitat suitability changes using satellite time series and ecological niche models. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 784:147172. [PMID: 34088022 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147172] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2020] [Revised: 04/06/2021] [Accepted: 04/12/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
One of the biggest challenges to deal with the global crisis of biodiversity loss is the lack of efficient and viable monitoring systems across scales. Unlike traditional in situ biodiversity monitoring, a usually costly and time-consuming enterprise, satellite remote sensing (SRS) data offer a technically feasible and sustainable in time solution. Here, we devise a cost-effective and upgradeable spatiotemporal framework for monitoring the species-specific habitat availability changes across scales by trend analysis of habitat suitability index (HSI) derived from ecological niche models (ENMs; Maxent) and using time series of SRS data (MODIS). The SRS-ENM framework was applied for a large suite of native species (911), from major taxonomic groups (flora (vascular plants), amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals), and listed in the IUCN Red List at regional (Iberian Peninsula) and continental (Europe) scales. The HSI-trend analyses predict cumulative reductions in habitat suitability for Threatened and Non-Threatened species across scales for the period 2002-2016. Specifically, 19% and 66% of the total grid cells for both species' groups showed negative trends at both regional and continental scales, respectively. Results were similar when considering all IUCN threat categories. All taxa groups showed a decrease in habitat suitability, but amphibians and reptiles groups hosted the largest number of negative HSI-trends grid cells. Considering all groups together, 12% and 34% of both study areas have strong reductions in habitat quality. We conclude that our framework detects increases and decreases in species' habitat suitability regardless of the spatial scale, extent, and pixel size. Species' range predictions across space and time based on SRS time series represent a promising Earth observation tool to support traditional risk assessment protocols and anticipate the decision-making process, while serving as a cross-scale biodiversity monitoring system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Salvador Arenas-Castro
- CICGE - Centro de Investigação em Ciências Geo-Espaciais, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto, Observatório Astronómico "Prof. Manuel de Barros", Alameda do Monte da Virgem, 4430-146 Vila Nova de Gaia, Portugal.
| | - Neftalí Sillero
- CICGE - Centro de Investigação em Ciências Geo-Espaciais, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto, Observatório Astronómico "Prof. Manuel de Barros", Alameda do Monte da Virgem, 4430-146 Vila Nova de Gaia, Portugal.
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2
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Che-Castaldo JP, Cousin R, Daryanto S, Deng G, Feng MLE, Gupta RK, Hong D, McGranaghan RM, Owolabi OO, Qu T, Ren W, Schafer TLJ, Sharma A, Shen C, Sherman MG, Sunter DA, Tao B, Wang L, Matteson DS. Critical Risk Indicators (CRIs) for the electric power grid: a survey and discussion of interconnected effects. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2021; 41:594-615. [PMID: 34306961 PMCID: PMC8286170 DOI: 10.1007/s10669-021-09822-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 06/05/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
The electric power grid is a critical societal resource connecting multiple infrastructural domains such as agriculture, transportation, and manufacturing. The electrical grid as an infrastructure is shaped by human activity and public policy in terms of demand and supply requirements. Further, the grid is subject to changes and stresses due to diverse factors including solar weather, climate, hydrology, and ecology. The emerging interconnected and complex network dependencies make such interactions increasingly dynamic, posing novel risks, and presenting new challenges to manage the coupled human–natural system. This paper provides a survey of models and methods that seek to explore the significant interconnected impact of the electric power grid and interdependent domains. We also provide relevant critical risk indicators (CRIs) across diverse domains that may be used to assess risks to electric grid reliability, including climate, ecology, hydrology, finance, space weather, and agriculture. We discuss the convergence of indicators from individual domains to explore possible systemic risk, i.e., holistic risk arising from cross-domain interconnections. Further, we propose a compositional approach to risk assessment that incorporates diverse domain expertise and information, data science, and computer science to identify domain-specific CRIs and their union in systemic risk indicators. Our study provides an important first step towards data-driven analysis and predictive modeling of risks in interconnected human–natural systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Judy P Che-Castaldo
- Conservation & Science Department, Lincoln Park Zoo, 2001 N. Clark St. Chicago, Chicago, IL USA
| | - Rémi Cousin
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Earth Institute/Columbia University, New York, USA
| | - Stefani Daryanto
- Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, College of Agriculture, Food and Environment, University of Kentucky, Lexington, USA
| | - Grace Deng
- Department of Statistics and Data Science, Cornell University, New York, USA
| | - Mei-Ling E Feng
- Conservation & Science Department, Lincoln Park Zoo, 2001 N. Clark St. Chicago, Chicago, IL USA
| | - Rajesh K Gupta
- Halicioglu Data Science Institute and Department of Computer Science & Engineering, University of California, San Diego, CA USA
| | - Dezhi Hong
- Halicioglu Data Science Institute and Department of Computer Science & Engineering, University of California, San Diego, CA USA
| | - Ryan M McGranaghan
- Atmospheric and Space Technology Research Associates, Louisville, CO USA
| | - Olukunle O Owolabi
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, Medford, MA USA
| | - Tianyi Qu
- Department of Finance, Isenberg School of Management, UMASS Amherst, Amherst, MA USA
| | - Wei Ren
- Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, College of Agriculture, Food and Environment, University of Kentucky, Lexington, USA
| | - Toryn L J Schafer
- Department of Statistics and Data Science, Cornell University, New York, USA
| | - Ashutosh Sharma
- Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA USA.,Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, India
| | - Chaopeng Shen
- Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA USA
| | | | - Deborah A Sunter
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, Medford, MA USA.,Department of Mechanical Engineering, Tufts University, Medford, MA USA.,Tufts Institute of the Environment, Tufts University, Medford, MA USA.,Center for International Environment and Resource Policy at The Fletcher School, Tufts University, Medford, MA USA
| | - Bo Tao
- Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, College of Agriculture, Food and Environment, University of Kentucky, Lexington, USA
| | - Lan Wang
- Department of Management Science, Miami Herbert Business School, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL USA
| | - David S Matteson
- Department of Statistics and Data Science, Cornell University, New York, USA
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3
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Watermeyer KE, Guillera-Arroita G, Bal P, Burgass MJ, Bland LM, Collen B, Hallam C, Kelly LT, McCarthy MA, Regan TJ, Stevenson S, Wintle BA, Nicholson E. Using decision science to evaluate global biodiversity indices. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2021; 35:492-501. [PMID: 32557849 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13574] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2019] [Revised: 06/05/2020] [Accepted: 06/12/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Global biodiversity indices are used to measure environmental change and progress toward conservation goals, yet few indices have been evaluated comprehensively for their capacity to detect trends of interest, such as declines in threatened species or ecosystem function. Using a structured approach based on decision science, we qualitatively evaluated 9 indices commonly used to track biodiversity at global and regional scales against 5 criteria relating to objectives, design, behavior, incorporation of uncertainty, and constraints (e.g., costs and data availability). Evaluation was based on reference literature for indices available at the time of assessment. We identified 4 key gaps in indices assessed: pathways to achieving goals (means objectives) were not always clear or relevant to desired outcomes (fundamental objectives); index testing and understanding of expected behavior was often lacking; uncertainty was seldom acknowledged or accounted for; and costs of implementation were seldom considered. These gaps may render indices inadequate in certain decision-making contexts and are problematic for indices linked with biodiversity targets and sustainability goals. Ensuring that index objectives are clear and their design is underpinned by a model of relevant processes are crucial in addressing the gaps identified by our assessment. Uptake and productive use of indices will be improved if index performance is tested rigorously and assumptions and uncertainties are clearly communicated to end users. This will increase index accuracy and value in tracking biodiversity change and supporting national and global policy decisions, such as the post-2020 global biodiversity framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kate E Watermeyer
- Deakin University, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Centre for Integrative Ecology, Burwood, VIC, 3125, Australia
| | | | - Payal Bal
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, 3010, Australia
| | - Michael J Burgass
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Ascot, SL5 7PY, U.K
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3SZ, U.K
- Biodiversify, Newark, Nottinghamshire, NG24, U.K
| | - Lucie M Bland
- Deakin University, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Centre for Integrative Ecology, Burwood, VIC, 3125, Australia
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, 3010, Australia
- Lucie Bland Editing, 1-3 Theobald Street, Thornbury, VIC, 3071, Australia
| | - Ben Collen
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetic, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, U.K
| | - Chris Hallam
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, 3010, Australia
| | - Luke T Kelly
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, 3010, Australia
| | - Michael A McCarthy
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, 3010, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, 4072, Australia
| | - Tracey J Regan
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, 3010, Australia
- Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Heidelberg, VIC, 3084, Australia
| | - Simone Stevenson
- Deakin University, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Centre for Integrative Ecology, Burwood, VIC, 3125, Australia
| | - Brendan A Wintle
- Quantitative and Applied Ecology, School of Biosciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, 3010, Australia
| | - Emily Nicholson
- Deakin University, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Centre for Integrative Ecology, Burwood, VIC, 3125, Australia
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Kristensen NP, Seah WW, Chong KY, Yeoh YS, Fung T, Berman LM, Tan HZ, Chisholm RA. Extinction rate of discovered and undiscovered plants in Singapore. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2020; 34:1229-1240. [PMID: 32181936 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13499] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2019] [Revised: 02/14/2020] [Accepted: 02/28/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Extinction is a key issue in the assessment of global biodiversity. However, many extinction rate measures do not account for species that went extinct before they could be discovered. The highly developed island city-state of Singapore has one of the best-documented tropical floras in the world. This allowed us to estimate the total rate of floristic extinctions in Singapore since 1822 after accounting for sampling effort and crypto extinctions by collating herbaria records. Our database comprised 34,224 specimens from 2076 native species, of which 464 species (22%) were considered nationally extinct. We assumed that undiscovered species had the same annual per-species extinction rates as discovered species and that no undiscovered species remained extant. With classical and Bayesian algorithms, we estimated that 304 (95% confidence interval, 213-414) and 412 (95% credible interval, 313-534) additional species went extinct before they could be discovered, respectively; corresponding total extinction rate estimates were 32% and 35% (range 30-38%). We detected violations of our 2 assumptions that could cause our extinction estimates, particularly the absolute numbers, to be biased downward. Thus, our estimates should be treated as lower bounds. Our results illustrate the possible magnitudes of plant extirpations that can be expected in the tropics as development continues.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nadiah P Kristensen
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, 16 Science Drive 4, Singapore, 117558, Singapore
| | - Wei Wei Seah
- Singapore Botanic Gardens, Herbarium Singapore, 1 Cluny Road, Singapore, 259569, Singapore
| | - Kwek Yan Chong
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, 16 Science Drive 4, Singapore, 117558, Singapore
| | - Yi Shuen Yeoh
- National Parks Board, Horticulture and Community Gardening Division, 1 Cluny Road, Singapore, 259569, Singapore
| | - Tak Fung
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, 16 Science Drive 4, Singapore, 117558, Singapore
| | - Laura M Berman
- Division of Science, Yale-NUS College, 16 College Avenue West, Singapore, 138527, Singapore
| | - Hui Zhen Tan
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, 16 Science Drive 4, Singapore, 117558, Singapore
| | - Ryan A Chisholm
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, 16 Science Drive 4, Singapore, 117558, Singapore
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5
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Sitters H, Di Stefano J. Integrating functional connectivity and fire management for better conservation outcomes. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2020; 34:550-560. [PMID: 31777984 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13446] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2018] [Revised: 11/11/2019] [Accepted: 11/22/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Globally, the mean abundance of terrestrial animals has fallen by 50% since 1970, and populations face ongoing threats associated with habitat loss, fragmentation, climate change, and disturbance. Climate change can influence the quality of remaining habitat directly and indirectly by precipitating increases in the extent, frequency, and severity of natural disturbances, such as fire. Species face the combined threats of habitat clearance, changing climates, and altered disturbance regimes, each of which may interact and have cascading impacts on animal populations. Typically, conservation agencies are limited in their capacity to mitigate rates of habitat clearance, habitat fragmentation, or climate change, yet fire management is increasingly used worldwide to reduce wildfire risk and achieve conservation outcomes. A popular approach to ecological fire management involves the creation of fire mosaics to promote animal diversity. However, this strategy has 2 fundamental limitations: the effect of fire on animal movement within or among habitat patches is not considered and the implications of the current fire regime for long-term population persistence are overlooked. Spatial and temporal patterns in fire history can influence animal movement, which is essential to the survival of individual animals, maintenance of genetic diversity, and persistence of populations, species, and ecosystems. We argue that there is rich potential for fire managers to manipulate animal movement patterns; enhance functional connectivity, gene flow, and genetic diversity; and increase the capacity of populations to persist under shifting environmental conditions. Recent methodological advances, such as spatiotemporal connectivity modeling, spatially explicit individual-based simulation, and fire-regime modeling can be integrated to achieve better outcomes for biodiversity in human-modified, fire-prone landscapes. Article impact statement: Land managers may conserve populations by using fire to sustain or enhance functional connectivity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Holly Sitters
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, 3363, Australia
| | - Julian Di Stefano
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, 3363, Australia
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6
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Chick MP, York A, Sitters H, Di Stefano J, Nitschke CR. Combining optimization and simulation modelling to measure the cumulative impacts of prescribed fire and wildfire on vegetation species diversity. J Appl Ecol 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13314] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Matthew P. Chick
- Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning Ballarat Victoria Australia
- School of Ecosystem and Forest SciencesUniversity of Melbourne Richmond Victoria Australia
| | - Alan York
- School of Ecosystem and Forest SciencesUniversity of Melbourne Creswick Victoria Australia
| | - Holly Sitters
- School of Ecosystem and Forest SciencesUniversity of Melbourne Creswick Victoria Australia
| | - Julian Di Stefano
- School of Ecosystem and Forest SciencesUniversity of Melbourne Creswick Victoria Australia
| | - Craig R. Nitschke
- School of Ecosystem and Forest SciencesUniversity of Melbourne Richmond Victoria Australia
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7
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Geschke A, James S, Bennett AF, Nimmo DG. Compact cities or sprawling suburbs? Optimising the distribution of people in cities to maximise species diversity. J Appl Ecol 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13183] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Andrew Geschke
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences; Deakin University; Burwood Vic. Australia
| | - Simon James
- School of Information Technology; Deakin University; Burwood Vic. Australia
| | - Andrew F. Bennett
- Department of Ecology, Environment & Evolution; La Trobe University; Burwood Vic. Australia
| | - Dale G. Nimmo
- Institute for Land, Water and Society; School of Environmental Science; Charles Sturt University; Albury NSW Australia
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8
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Davies HF, McCarthy MA, Rioli W, Puruntatameri J, Roberts W, Kerinaiua C, Kerinauia V, Womatakimi KB, Andersen AN, Murphy BP. An experimental test of whether pyrodiversity promotes mammal diversity in a northern Australian savanna. J Appl Ecol 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13170] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Hugh F. Davies
- Quantitative and Applied Ecology Group; The University of Melbourne; Parkville Vic. Australia
| | - Michael A. McCarthy
- Quantitative and Applied Ecology Group; The University of Melbourne; Parkville Vic. Australia
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Alan N. Andersen
- NESP Threatened Species Recovery Hub; Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods; Charles Darwin University; Casuarina NT Australia
| | - Brett P. Murphy
- NESP Threatened Species Recovery Hub; Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods; Charles Darwin University; Casuarina NT Australia
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9
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Sitters H, Di Stefano J, Wills T, Swan M, York A. Survey design for precise fire management conservation targets. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2018; 28:35-45. [PMID: 28901043 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1624] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2017] [Accepted: 08/25/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Common goals of ecological fire management are to sustain biodiversity and minimize extinction risk. A novel approach to achieving these goals determines the relative proportions of vegetation growth stages (equivalent to successional stages, which are categorical representations of time since fire) that maximize a biodiversity index. The method combines data describing species abundances in each growth stage with numerical optimization to define an optimal growth-stage structure that provides a conservation-based operational target for managers. However, conservation targets derived from growth-stage optimization are likely to depend critically on choices regarding input data. There is growing interest in the use of growth-stage optimization as a basis for fire management, thus understanding of how input data influence the outputs is crucial. Simulated data sets provide a flexible platform for systematically varying aspects of survey design and species inclusions. We used artificial data with known properties, and a case-study data set from southeastern Australia, to examine the influence of (1) survey design (total number of sites and their distribution among growth stages) and (2) species inclusions (total number of species and their level of specialization) on the precision of conservation targets. Based on our findings, we recommend that survey designs for precise estimates would ideally involve at least 80 sites, and include at least 80 species. Greater numbers of sites and species will yield increasingly reliable results, but fewer might be sufficient in some circumstances. An even distribution of sites among growth stages was less important than the total number of sites, and omission of species is unlikely to have a major influence on results as long as several species specialize on each growth stage. We highlight the importance of examining the responses of individual species to growth stage before feeding survey data into the growth-stage optimization black box, and advocate use of a resampling procedure to determine the precision of results. Collectively, our findings form a reproducible guide to designing ecological surveys that yield precise conservation targets through growth-stage optimization, and ultimately help sustain biodiversity in fire-prone systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Holly Sitters
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, 4 Water Street, Creswick, Victoria, Australia
| | - Julian Di Stefano
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, 4 Water Street, Creswick, Victoria, Australia
| | - Timothy Wills
- GHD, Level 8, 180 Lonsdale Street, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Matthew Swan
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, 4 Water Street, Creswick, Victoria, Australia
| | - Alan York
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, 4 Water Street, Creswick, Victoria, Australia
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10
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Giljohann KM, Kelly LT, Connell J, Clarke MF, Clarke RH, Regan TJ, McCarthy MA. Assessing the sensitivity of biodiversity indices used to inform fire management. J Appl Ecol 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Luke T. Kelly
- School of BioSciences; The University of Melbourne; Parkville Vic. Australia
| | - Jemima Connell
- School of Life Sciences; La Trobe University; Bundoora Vic. Australia
| | - Michael F. Clarke
- School of Life Sciences; La Trobe University; Bundoora Vic. Australia
| | - Rohan H. Clarke
- School of Biological Sciences; Monash University; Clayton Vic. Australia
| | - Tracey J. Regan
- School of BioSciences; The University of Melbourne; Parkville Vic. Australia
- Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning; Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research; Heidelberg Vic. Australia
| | - Michael A. McCarthy
- School of BioSciences; The University of Melbourne; Parkville Vic. Australia
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11
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Ringma JL, Wintle B, Fuller RA, Fisher D, Bode M. Minimizing species extinctions through strategic planning for conservation fencing. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2017; 31:1029-1038. [PMID: 28248429 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12922] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/16/2016] [Revised: 02/03/2017] [Accepted: 02/16/2017] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Conservation fences are an increasingly common management action, particularly for species threatened by invasive predators. However, unlike many conservation actions, fence networks are expanding in an unsystematic manner, generally as a reaction to local funding opportunities or threats. We conducted a gap analysis of Australia's large predator-exclusion fence network by examining translocation of Australian mammals relative to their extinction risk. To address gaps identified in species representation, we devised a systematic prioritization method for expanding the conservation fence network that explicitly incorporated population viability analysis and minimized expected species' extinctions. The approach was applied to New South Wales, Australia, where the state government intends to expand the existing conservation fence network. Existing protection of species in fenced areas was highly uneven; 67% of predator-sensitive species were unrepresented in the fence network. Our systematic prioritization yielded substantial efficiencies in that it reduced expected number of species extinctions up to 17 times more effectively than ad hoc approaches. The outcome illustrates the importance of governance in coordinating management action when multiple projects have similar objectives and rely on systematic methods rather than expanding networks opportunistically.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeremy L Ringma
- School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Goddard Building, St Lucia, 4067, Australia
| | - Brendan Wintle
- School of Biosciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia
| | - Richard A Fuller
- School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Goddard Building, St Lucia, 4067, Australia
| | - Diana Fisher
- School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Goddard Building, St Lucia, 4067, Australia
| | - Michael Bode
- School of Biosciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia
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12
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Smith AL, Landguth EL, Bull CM, Banks SC, Gardner MG, Driscoll DA. Dispersal responses override density effects on genetic diversity during post-disturbance succession. Proc Biol Sci 2016; 283:20152934. [PMID: 27009225 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2015.2934] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2015] [Accepted: 02/26/2016] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Dispersal fundamentally influences spatial population dynamics but little is known about dispersal variation in landscapes where spatial heterogeneity is generated predominantly by disturbance and succession. We tested the hypothesis that habitat succession following fire inhibits dispersal, leading to declines over time in genetic diversity in the early successional gecko Nephrurus stellatus We combined a landscape genetics field study with a spatially explicit simulation experiment to determine whether successional patterns in genetic diversity were driven by habitat-mediated dispersal or demographic effects (declines in population density leading to genetic drift). Initial increases in genetic structure following fire were likely driven by direct mortality and rapid population expansion. Subsequent habitat succession increased resistance to gene flow and decreased dispersal and genetic diversity inN. stellatus Simulated changes in population density alone did not reproduce these results. Habitat-mediated reductions in dispersal, combined with changes in population density, were essential to drive the field-observed patterns. Our study provides a framework for combining demographic, movement and genetic data with simulations to discover the relative influence of demography and dispersal on patterns of landscape genetic structure. Our results suggest that succession can inhibit connectivity among individuals, opening new avenues for understanding how disturbance regimes influence spatial population dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Annabel L Smith
- Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Fenner Building 141, Linnaeus Way, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia
| | - Erin L Landguth
- Division of Biological Sciences, University of Montana, 32 Campus Drive, Missoula, MT 59812, USA
| | - C Michael Bull
- School of Biological Sciences, Flinders University, GPO Box 2100, Adelaide, South Australia 5001, Australia
| | - Sam C Banks
- Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Fenner Building 141, Linnaeus Way, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia
| | - Michael G Gardner
- School of Biological Sciences, Flinders University, GPO Box 2100, Adelaide, South Australia 5001, Australia Evolutionary Biology Unit, South Australian Museum, North Terrace, Adelaide, South Australia 5000, Australia
| | - Don A Driscoll
- Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Fenner Building 141, Linnaeus Way, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University Geelong, 221 Burwood Highway, Burwood, Victoria 3125, Australia
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13
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Samia Y, Lutscher F, Hastings A. Connectivity, passability and heterogeneity interact to determine fish population persistence in river networks. J R Soc Interface 2016; 12:0435. [PMID: 26311313 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2015.0435] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
The movement of fish in watersheds is frequently inhibited by human-made migration barriers such as dams or culverts. The resulting lack of connectivity of spatial subpopulations is often cited as a cause for observed population decline. We formulate a matrix model for a spatially distributed fish population in a watershed, and we investigate how location and other characteristics of a single movement barrier impact the asymptotic growth rate of the population. We find that while population growth rate often decreases with the introduction of a movement obstacle, it may also increase due to a 'retention effect'. Furthermore, obstacle mortality greatly affects population growth rate. In practice, different connectivity indices are used to predict population effects of migration barriers, but the relation of these indices to population growth rates in demographic models is often unclear. When comparing our results with the dentritic connectivity index, we see that the index captures neither the retention effect nor the influences of obstacle mortality. We argue that structural indices cannot entirely replace more detailed demographic models to understand questions of persistence and extinction. We advocate the development of novel functional indices and characteristics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yasmine Samia
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada
| | - Frithjof Lutscher
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada
| | - Alan Hastings
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, USA
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Methodological challenges in monitoring bat population- and assemblage-level changes for anthropogenic impact assessment. Mamm Biol 2015. [DOI: 10.1016/j.mambio.2014.11.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
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Kelly LT, Bennett AF, Clarke MF, McCarthy MA. Optimal fire histories for biodiversity conservation. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2015; 29:473-481. [PMID: 25163611 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12384] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2014] [Accepted: 06/19/2014] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
Fire is used as a management tool for biodiversity conservation worldwide. A common objective is to avoid population extinctions due to inappropriate fire regimes. However, in many ecosystems, it is unclear what mix of fire histories will achieve this goal. We determined the optimal fire history of a given area for biological conservation with a method that links tools from 3 fields of research: species distribution modeling, composite indices of biodiversity, and decision science. We based our case study on extensive field surveys of birds, reptiles, and mammals in fire-prone semi-arid Australia. First, we developed statistical models of species' responses to fire history. Second, we determined the optimal allocation of successional states in a given area, based on the geometric mean of species relative abundance. Finally, we showed how conservation targets based on this index can be incorporated into a decision-making framework for fire management. Pyrodiversity per se did not necessarily promote vertebrate biodiversity. Maximizing pyrodiversity by having an even allocation of successional states did not maximize the geometric mean abundance of bird species. Older vegetation was disproportionately important for the conservation of birds, reptiles, and small mammals. Because our method defines fire management objectives based on the habitat requirements of multiple species in the community, it could be used widely to maximize biodiversity in fire-prone ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luke T Kelly
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, School of Botany, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, 3010, Australia
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Giljohann KM, McCarthy MA, Kelly LT, Regan TJ. Choice of biodiversity index drives optimal fire management decisions. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2015; 25:264-277. [PMID: 26255372 DOI: 10.1890/14-0257.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Preservation of biodiversity is a central goal of conservation management, yet the conditions that promote persistence may differ for the species in the community. For systems subject to stochastic disturbances such as fire, understanding which management practices promote persistence for all species in a community is complex. Before deciding on the best course of action, an objective must be specified. Yet an overarching goal of species persistence can be specified into a measureable objective many different ways. We investigated four alternative management objectives for maximizing species persistence that use common biodiversity indices: (1) attaining the minimally acceptable mix of successional vegetation states to support species' relative abundances, (2) maximizing the arithmetic mean abundance of species, (3) maximizing the geometric mean abundance of species, and (4) minimizing the average extinction risk of species. We used stochastic dynamic programming to model successional changes in vegetation in the presence of both planned and unplanned fires, and utilize an extensive data set on the occurrence of birds, reptiles, and small mammals in different successional states in semiarid Australia. We investigated the influence the choice of objective function and taxonomic focus has on the optimal fire management recommendations. We also evaluated a recent hazard reduction policy to annually burn a fixed amount of the landscape and compare results to the optimal solution. The optimal management strategy to maximize species persistence over a 100-year period is predominantly to minimize wildfires. This is because the majority of species are more likely to occur in intermediate, and late successional vegetation. However the optimal solution showed sensitivity to the objective and the species included in the analysis. These results highlight the need for careful consideration when specifying an objective to represent overarching conservation goals. Using the extinction risk objective, we show that a policy to annually burn 5% of the landscape could increase the average probability of extinction for the modelled species by 7% over the next 100 years compared to the optimal management scenario.
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