Using decision science to evaluate global biodiversity indices

A global indicator of species recovery

Monitoring progress toward meeting global biodiversity goals involves several indicators, including, at the species level, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Index (RLI) and the Living Planet Index (LPI). However, at present, there is no indicator specifically for tracking species recovery, despite this being enshrined in the mission of the Convention on Biological Diversity's Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). The IUCN recently adopted the Green Status of Species (GSS), a global standard for measuring species recovery and for assessing the role played by conservation in species recovery. An index based on GSS has been adopted as an indicator for multiple elements of GBF. However, a methodology underpinning the index itself has not previously been published or elaborated. We have therefore developed the Green Status Index of Species Recovery (GSI) for use as a global indicator of progress toward species recovery. We devised GSI to reflect the uncertainties of the underlying GSS assessments and developed methods to disaggregate its global value to reflect the contribution of each country to the recovery of the species within its borders. Overall, we designed the GSI to exhibit key attributes of an effective global indicator, including an explicit objective aligned with global biodiversity goals and a sound methodological basis. The GSI complements existing indicators, such as RLI and LPI, because it fills an important niche in measuring biodiversity trends, going beyond extinction risk and population abundance. As a test, we applied the GSI to a set of species and found that these species were less than halfway to full recovery and moved farther away from full recovery since the mid-20th century. Although the deployment of GSI for complete taxonomic groups will require a considerable scaling up of effort, a sampled approach is feasible and can be operational by 2030.

Whole-genome resequencing reveals the population structure and domestication processes of endemic endangered goose breeds (Anser cygnoides)

In recent years, the dwindling population of these endangered geese has hindered our understanding of their phenotypic variations and the genes associated with important traits. To investigate the population structure and genetic diversity of this breed, the whole-genome data of 90 individuals from a conservation farm were obtained using the Illumina 6000 paired-end platform. The research results indicate that each locally endangered goose variety has formed a monophyletic population. The Baizi (BZ), Lingxian White (LX), and Xupu (XP) geese exhibiting higher genetic diversity than the other goose breeds. Tree-Mix analysis revealed the presence of five gene flows events between goose populations, with Yangjiang (YJ) geese consistently exhibiting significant genetic distance from the other breeds. Under strong pressures from the natural environment and artificial selection, whole-genome selective scanning revealed 394 overlapping genes. Gene Ontology (GO) enrichment analysis of the putative candidate genes (PCGs) revealed significant enrichment of 20 terms (P < 0.05). Similarly, Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) enrichment analysis revealed significant enrichment of PCGs in 23 terms (P < 0.05). Examination of overlapping genes identified through at least two selection methods revealed a set of genes associated with key traits, including growth and development (CCND1, DES, CCNO, SMC5, and NUBP1), immunity (ABCA2, ABCC8, UHRF2, and ABCA1), and body aging (KAT6B). Our findings provide insights into the genetic basis of endangered geese at the whole-genome level, laying the foundation for future molecular research on genetic variation and phenotypic changes. In summary, our results provide invaluable resources for delineating the uniqueness of endangered goose breeds.

Decline in global biodiversity intactness over the past two decades

Knowledge of the dynamics of biodiversity intactness and its spatial differentiation over different geographic regions of the world is crucial for the improved design of effective biodiversity conservation strategies. However, comprehensive investigations of the multiple indicators of biodiversity intactness across several spatial scales are lacking. The current study used an annual time series (2000-2020) of the biodiversity intactness index (BII) to investigate the mean magnitude, temporal trajectory, and relative changes in biodiversity intactness at the national, regional, and global levels. Global mean magnitude of BII was estimated to be 76 ± 16 % between 2000 and 2020, accompanied by the highly diverse BII variations across geographic regions. There has been a gradual decrease in biodiversity intactness over the past 20 years, with the global mean BII trend of -0.3 ± 1.9 %/decade. Africa and Europe have the largest decrease and increase in BII of -1.4 ± 2.2 %/decade and 1.0 ± 1.7 %/decade, respectively. The countries with the top ten BII parameters are mainly located in Africa and Asia, whereas the opposite is true in Europe. The top 10 countries with positive BII trends were mainly in Europe (70 %), followed by Africa (80 %) and Asia (20 %). There was a negative difference between the global mean BII for 2011-2020 and 2000-2010, as evidenced by the relative change in BII of 4.1 %. This study provides an elaborate interpretation of the current status and possible future paths of abundance-based biodiversity intactness at multiple spatial scales, which is beneficial in elucidating biodiversity intactness dynamics and potentially supports biodiversity conservation.

The utility of the Living Planet Index as a policy tool and for measuring nature recovery

The Living Planet Index (LPI) is a leading global biodiversity indicator based on vertebrate population time series. Since it was first developed over 25 years ago, the LPI has been widely used to indicate trends in biodiversity globally, primarily reported every two years in the Living Planet Report. Based on relative abundance, a sensitive metric of biodiversity change, the LPI has also been applied as a tool for informing policy and used in assessments for several multilateral conventions and agreements, including the Convention on Biological Diversity 2010 Biodiversity Target and Aichi targets. Here, we outline all current and some potential uses of the LPI as a policy tool and explore the use of the LPI in policy documents to assess the reach of the LPI geographically and over time. We present limitations to the use of this indicator in policy, primarily relating to the development of the index at the national level, and suggest clear pathways to broaden the utility of the LPI and the underlying database for temporal and spatial predictions of biodiversity change. We also provide evidence that the LPI can detect recoveries in biodiversity and suggest its suitability for measuring progress towards the goal of biodiversity recovery by 2050.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.

Life Is Uncertain: Inherent Variability Exhibited by Organisms, and at Higher Levels of Biological Organization

Organisms act stochastically. A not uncommon view in the ecological literature is that this is mainly due to the observer having insufficient information or a stochastic environment-and not partly because organisms themselves respond with inherent unpredictability. In this study, I compile the evidence that contradicts that view. Organisms generate uncertainty internally, which results in irreducible stochastic responses. I consider why: for instance, stochastic responses are associated with greater adaptability to changing environments and resource availability. Over longer timescales, biologically generated uncertainty influences behavior, evolution, and macroecological processes. Indeed, it could be stated that organisms are systems defined by the internal generation, magnification, and record-keeping of uncertainty as inputs to responses. Important practical implications arise if organisms can indeed be defined by an association with specific classes of inherent uncertainty: not least that isolating those signatures then provides a potential means for detecting life, for considering the forms that life could theoretically take, and for exploring the wider limits to how life might become distributed. These are all fundamental goals in astrobiology.

Habitat suitability maps for Australian flora and fauna under CMIP6 climate scenarios

BACKGROUND

Spatial information about the location and suitability of areas for native plant and animal species under different climate futures is an important input to land use and conservation planning and management. Australia, renowned for its abundant species diversity and endemism, often relies on modeled data to assess species distributions due to the country's vast size and the challenges associated with conducting on-ground surveys on such a large scale. The objective of this article is to develop habitat suitability maps for Australian flora and fauna under different climate futures.

RESULTS

Using MaxEnt, we produced Australia-wide habitat suitability maps under RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP7.0-SSP3, and RCP8.5-SSP5 climate futures for 1,382 terrestrial vertebrates and 9,251 vascular plants vascular plants at 5 km2 for open access. This represents 60% of all Australian mammal species, 77% of amphibian species, 50% of reptile species, 71% of bird species, and 44% of vascular plant species. We also include tabular data, which include summaries of total quality-weighted habitat area of species under different climate scenarios and time periods.

CONCLUSIONS

The spatial data supplied can help identify important and sensitive locations for species under various climate futures. Additionally, the supplied tabular data can provide insights into the impacts of climate change on biodiversity in Australia. These habitat suitability maps can be used as input data for landscape and conservation planning or species management, particularly under different climate change scenarios in Australia.

Past, present, and future of the Living Planet Index

As we enter the next phase of international policy commitments to halt biodiversity loss (e.g., Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework), biodiversity indicators will play an important role in forming the robust basis upon which targeted, and time sensitive conservation actions are developed. Population trend indicators are one of the most powerful tools in biodiversity monitoring due to their responsiveness to changes over short timescales and their ability to aggregate species trends from global down to sub-national or even local scale. We consider how the project behind one of the foremost population level indicators - the Living Planet Index - has evolved over the last 25 years, its value to the field of biodiversity monitoring, and how its components have portrayed a compelling account of the changing status of global biodiversity through its application at policy, research and practice levels. We explore ways the project can develop to enhance our understanding of the state of biodiversity and share lessons learned to inform indicator development and mobilise action.

Ecosystem services in connected catchment to coast ecosystems: Monitoring to detect emerging trends

There is an increasing need for long-term monitoring of ecosystems and their services to inform on-ground management. The supply of many ecosystem services relies on connections that span multiple ecosystems. Monitoring the underlying condition of interconnected ecosystems is therefore required to track effectiveness of past interventions and identify impending change. Here we test the performance of indicators of ecosystem services with the aim of identifying the time-scales over which indicators of ecosystem services responded to change. We chose a case-study of a catchment in Northern Australia, where water resource development is a threat to the river flows that support vegetation growth and the life-cycle of coastal fishery species. We developed a novel approach to performance testing that drew on state-space modelling to capture ecological dynamics, and structural equation modelling to capture covariation in indicator time series. We first quantified covariation among three ecological indicators that had time-series data: pasture biomass, vegetation greenness and barramundi catch per unit effort. Higher values of all indicators occurred in years with greater river flow. We then predicted the emergence times for each indicator, as the time taken for a trend in an indicator to emerge from the background of natural variation. Emergence times were > 10 years in all cases, quantified at 80 % and higher confidence levels. Past trends and current status of ecosystem service flows are often used by decision makers to directly inform near-term actions, particularly for provisioning services (such as barramundi catch) due to their important contribution to regional economies. We found that ecological indicators could be used to assess historical performance over decadal timespans, but not as short-term indicators of recent change. More generally, we offer an approach to performance testing of indicators. This approach could be useful for quantifying timescales of ecosystem response in systems where cross-ecosystem connections are important.

Diversity of protist genera in periphyton of tufa-depositing karstic river

Purpose

In aquatic ecosystems, protists play a crucial role and cover numerous ecological functions. The karstic Krka River (Croatia) is a unique hotspot for high diversity of aquatic organisms, especially protists. The main objective of the present study was to obtain a detailed overview of the protist community structure in the periphyton of the Krka River and to determine the differences in protist diversity along the river.

Methods

Protist diversity was detected by amplicon sequencing of the hypervariable region V9 of the 18S rRNA gene, using the universal eukaryotic primer pair.

Results

The three main groups of protists were as follows: Ciliophora, Cercozoa, and Bacillariophyta. In terms of abundance of protist OTUs, the shade plot revealed an evident difference from the upstream to downstream river section, which increased between locations from Krka spring to Skradinski buk. Diversity was explored using measures of alpha and beta diversity. Alpha diversity showed an increasing trend in the downstream direction of the river. The location effect, or clustering/grouping of samples by location, was confirmed by the PERMANOVA permutation test of beta diversity.

Conclusion

The combination of alpha and beta diversity can help provide deeper insight into the study of diversity patterns, but also point out to decline in species diversity and allow for effective ways to protect aquatic karst habitats in future management.

Annual changes in the Biodiversity Intactness Index in tropical and subtropical forest biomes, 2001-2012

Few biodiversity indicators are available that reflect the state of broad-sense biodiversity—rather than of particular taxa—at fine spatial and temporal resolution. One such indicator, the Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII), estimates how the average abundance of the native terrestrial species in a region compares with their abundances in the absence of pronounced human impacts. We produced annual maps of modelled BII at 30-arc-second resolution (roughly 1 km at the equator) across tropical and subtropical forested biomes, by combining annual data on land use, human population density and road networks, and statistical models of how these variables affect overall abundance and compositional similarity of plants, fungi, invertebrates and vertebrates. Across tropical and subtropical biomes, BII fell by an average of 1.9 percentage points between 2001 and 2012, with 81 countries seeing an average reduction and 43 an average increase; the extent of primary forest fell by 3.9% over the same period. We did not find strong relationships between changes in BII and countries’ rates of economic growth over the same period; however, limitations in mapping BII in plantation forests may hinder our ability to identify these relationships. This is the first time temporal change in BII has been estimated across such a large region.

Scientific foundations for an ecosystem goal, milestones and indicators for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework

Despite substantial conservation efforts, the loss of ecosystems continues globally, along with related declines in species and nature's contributions to people. An effective ecosystem goal, supported by clear milestones, targets and indicators, is urgently needed for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework and beyond to support biodiversity conservation, the UN Sustainable Development Goals and efforts to abate climate change. Here, we describe the scientific foundations for an ecosystem goal and milestones, founded on a theory of change, and review available indicators to measure progress. An ecosystem goal should include three core components: area, integrity and risk of collapse. Targets-the actions that are necessary for the goals to be met-should address the pathways to ecosystem loss and recovery, including safeguarding remnants of threatened ecosystems, restoring their area and integrity to reduce risk of collapse and retaining intact areas. Multiple indicators are needed to capture the different dimensions of ecosystem area, integrity and risk of collapse across all ecosystem types, and should be selected for their fitness for purpose and relevance to goal components. Science-based goals, supported by well-formulated action targets and fit-for-purpose indicators, will provide the best foundation for reversing biodiversity loss and sustaining human well-being.