Habitat loss and overhunting synergistically drive the extirpation of jaguars from the Gran Chaco

Jaguar density in the most threatened ecoregion of the Amazon

Population parameters provide essential information for conservation efforts aimed at target species. We used the spatially explicit capture-recapture method to estimate the jaguar density and population size in the Gurupi Jaguar Conservation Unit (JCU), located in the most threatened ecoregion of the Amazon. The estimated density of 2.62 individuals/100 km2 in a continuous forest of over 10,000 km2 implies a small effective population size, underscoring the threat to the long-term viability of the Gurupi JCU’s jaguar population. We recommend urgent forest restoration actions to reduce fragmentation and improve connectivity between Gurupi JCU and other forest fragments to facilitate jaguar gene flow.

A review of environmental and anthropogenic variables used to model jaguar occurrence

Jaguars (Panthera onca) are a landscape species of conservation importance and our understanding of environmental and anthropogenic drivers of jaguar occurrence is necessary to improve conservation strategies. We reviewed available literature to simply describe environmental and anthropogenic variables used and found to be significant in occurrence modeling. We reviewed 95 documents published from 1980 to 2021 that focused on jaguar occurrence and that used 39 variable types (21 anthropogenic, 18 environmental) among different techniques, scales, and approaches. In general, these variables included both anthropogenic (roads, land use, human activities, and population) and environmental (climate, vegetation, ecological interactions, topographic, water, and others) factors. Twelve variables were identified as affecting jaguar occurrence overall, eleven at local scale and seven at broad scales (regional and continental). Focusing more specifically on the variables that correlate with occurrence should help researchers to make better predictions in areas without quantitative jaguar data.

Impact of multiple small and persistent threats on extinction risk

Many species may face multiple distinct and persistent drivers of extinction risk, yet theoretical and empirical studies tend to focus on the single largest driver. This means that existing approaches potentially underestimate and mischaracterize future risks to biodiversity. We synthesized existing knowledge on how multiple drivers of extinction can interact to influence a species' overall extinction probability in a probabilistic model of extinction risk that incorporated the impacts of multiple drivers of extinction risk, their interactions, and their accumulative effects through time. We then used this model framework to explore how different threats, interactions between them, and time trends may affect a species' overall extinction probability. Multiple small threats together had potential to pose a large cumulative extinction risk; for example, 10 individual threats posed a 1% extinction risk each and cumulatively posed a 9.7% total extinction risk. Interactions among drivers resulted in escalated risk in some cases, and persistent threats with a small (1%) extinction risk each decade ultimately posed large extinction risk over 100 (9.6% total extinction risk) to 200 years (18.2% total extinction risk). By estimating long-term extinction risk posed by several different factors and their interactions, this approach provides a framework to identify drivers of extinction risk that could be proactively targeted to help prevent species currently of least concern from becoming threatened with extinction.

Mixed protection of threatened species traded under CITES

The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) regulates international legal trade to prevent the detrimental harvest of wildlife. We assess the volumes of threatened and non-threatened bird, mammal, amphibian, and reptile species in the CITES-managed trade and how this trade responded to category changes of species in the IUCN Red List between 2000 and 2018. In this period, over a thousand wild-sourced vertebrate species were commercially traded. Species of least conservation concern had the highest yearly trade volumes (excluding birds), whereas species in most Red List categories showed an overall decrease in trade reoccurrence and volume through time, with most species unlikely to reoccur in recent trade. Charismatic species with populations split-listed between Appendices I and II were traded in substantially lower yearly volumes when sourced from the more-threatened Appendix I populations. Species trade volumes did not systematically respond to changes in the Red List category, with 31.0% of species disappearing from trade before changing category and the majority of species revealing no difference in trade volumes from pre- to post-change. Just 2.7% (12/432) of species volumes declined and 2.1% (9/432) of volumes increased after a category change. Our findings highlight that non-threatened species dominate trade but reveal small numbers of highly threatened species in trade and a disconnect between species trade volumes and changing extinction risk. We highlight potential drawbacks in the current regulation of trade in listed species and urgently call for open and accessible assessments-non-detriment findings-robustly evidencing the sustainable use of threatened and non-threatened species alike.

Density and habitat use of one of the last jaguar populations of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest: Is there still hope?

The jaguar (Panthera onca) plays an important role in maintaining biodiversity and ecological processes. We evaluated the status of a jaguar population in one of the last stronghold habitats for its conservation in the Atlantic Forest, the Rio Doce State Park (RDSP). We used a random survey design from 2016/17 to estimate jaguar abundance and density as well as its occupancy and detection probabilities in the entire Park's area. To monitor for temporal fluctuations in density and abundance, we used a systematic survey design in the southern portion of the Park where jaguars were more recorded when using the random approach. We then conducted two surveys in 2017/18 and 2020. Our 2016/17 random survey revealed that jaguar density (0.11 ± SE 0.28 individuals/100 km2) was the lowest obtained for the species across the Atlantic Forest. We noticed that jaguar density increased three times from 2017/18 (0.55 ± SE 0.45 individuals/100 km2) to 2020 (1.61 ± SE 0.6 individuals/100 km2). Jaguar occupancy and detection probability were 0.40 and 0.08, respectively. The low jaguar occupancy probability was positively associated with smaller distances from lakes and records of potential prey. The detection probability was positively associated with prey detection, the rainy season, and smaller distances from lakes. Our work contributes to a growing awareness of the potential conservation value of a protected area in a human-dominated landscape as one of the last strongholds for jaguars across the Atlantic Forest.

Heterologous in vitro fertilization and embryo production for assessment of jaguar (Panthera onca Linnaeus, 1758) frozen-thawed semen in different extenders

Heterologous in vitro fertilization (IVF) is an important tool for assessing fertility of endangered mammals such as the jaguar, considering difficult access to females for artificial insemination and to obtain homologous oocytes. We aimed to evaluate the fertility of jaguar sperm cryopreserved with different extenders, using domestic cat oocytes to assess the development of hybrid embryos. Semen from four captive jaguars was obtained by electroejaculation. Samples were cryopreserved in powdered coconut water (ACP-117c) or Tris extender containing 20% egg yolk and 6% glycerol. Thawed spermatozoa were resuspended (2.0 × 10⁶ spermatozoa/mL) in IVF medium and co-incubated with cat oocytes matured in vitro for 18 h. Presumptive zygotes were cultured for 7 days. After 48 h, cleavage rate was evaluated, and non-cleaved structures were stained for IVF evaluation. On days 5 and 7, the rate of morula and blastocyst formation was assessed. Data were analyzed using the Fisher exact test (p < 0.05). No difference was observed between ACP-117c and Tris extenders, respectively, for oocytes with 2nd polar body (2/51, 3.9 ± 2.9% vs. 2/56, 3.6 ± 3.1%), pronuclear structures (5/51, 9.8 ± 4.7% vs. 8/56, 14.3 ± 8.0%), and total IVF rates (7/36, 19.4 ± 5.0% vs. 10/37, 27.0 ± 13.8%). All the samples fertilized the oocytes, with 22.9 ± 3.2% (16/70) and 16.7 ± 3.6% (12/72) cleavage of mature oocytes for ACP-117c and Tris extenders, respectively. Morula rates of 4.3 ± 2.3% (3/70) and 5.6 ± 2.2% (4/72) were observed for ACP-117c and Tris, respectively. Only the Tris extender demonstrated blastocyst production (2/12, 16.7 ± 1.5% blastocyst/cleavage). We demonstrated that jaguar ejaculates cryopreserved using ACP-117c and Tris were suitable for IVF techniques, with blastocyst production by ejaculates cryopreserved in Tris. This is a first report of embryos produced in vitro using jaguar sperm and domestic cat oocytes through IVF.

Impacts of hydropower on the habitat of jaguars and tigers

The rapid expansion of hydropower across tropical landscapes has caused extensive habitat loss and degradation, triggering biodiversity loss. Despite known risks to freshwater biodiversity, the flooding of terrestrial habitats caused by dam construction, and associated impacts on terrestrial biota, have been rarely considered. To help fill this knowledge gap, we quantified the habitat loss following inundation of hydropower reservoirs across the range of two iconic species, jaguars and tigers. To do so, we compiled existing and planned dams intersecting the distribution of these apex predators. We found 164 dams intersecting the jaguar range, in total flooding 25,397 km². For tigers, we identified 421 dams, amounting to 13,750 km². As hydropower infrastructure is projected to expand in the decades ahead, these values are expected to increase greatly, particularly within the distribution of jaguars where the number of dams will nearly quadruple (429 planned dams). Despite the relatively few dams (41) planned across the range of tigers, most will intersect priority conservation areas for this species. We recommend a more cautious pursuit of hydropower in topographically flat regions, to avoid extensive habitat flooding which has occurred in the Neotropics, and avoiding dam construction in priority conservation landscapes for tigers.

Palmeirim and Gibson quantify the global habitat loss of jaguars and tigers due to existing and planned hydropower dams and relate these to published estimates of species densities from nearby regions. This analysis shows how dam construction intersects priority conservation areas for these apex predators.

Beyond words: From jaguar population trends to conservation and public policy in Mexico

The jaguar (Panthera onca) is one of the most threatened carnivores in the Americas. Despite a long history of research on this charismatic species, to date there have been few systematic efforts to assess its population size and status in most countries across its distribution range. We present here the results of the two National Jaguar Surveys for Mexico, the first national censuses in any country within the species distribution. We estimated jaguar densities from field data collected at 13 localities in 2008-2010 (2010 hereafter) and 11 localities in 2016-2018 (2018 hereafter). We used the 2010 census results as the basis to develop a National Jaguar Conservation Strategy that identified critical issues for jaguar conservation in Mexico. We worked with the Mexican government to implement the conservation strategy and then evaluated its effectivity. To compare the 2010 and 2018 results, we estimated the amount of jaguar-suitable habitat in the entire country based on an ecological niche model for both periods. Suitable jaguar habitat covered ~267,063 km2 (13.9% of the country's territory) in 2010 and ~ 288,890 km2 (~14.8% of the country's territory) in 2018. Using the most conservative density values for each priority region, we estimated jaguar densities for both the high and low suitable habitats. The total jaguar population was estimated in ~4,000 individuals for 2010 census and ~4,800 for the 2018 census. The Yucatan Peninsula was the region with the largest population, around 2000 jaguars, in both censuses. Our promising results indicate that the actions we proposed in the National Jaguar Conservation Strategy, some of which have been implemented working together with the Federal Government, other NGO's, and land owners, are improving jaguar conservation in Mexico. The continuation of surveys and monitoring programs of the jaguar populations in Mexico will provide accurate information to design and implement effective, science-based conservation measures to try to ensure that robust jaguar populations remain a permanent fixture of Mexico's natural heritage.

Environmental and anthropogenic factors synergistically affect space use of jaguars

Large terrestrial carnivores have undergone some of the largest population declines and range reductions of any species, which is of concern as they can have large effects on ecosystem dynamics and function.^1-4 The jaguar (Panthera onca) is the apex predator throughout the majority of the Neotropics; however, its distribution has been reduced by >50% and it survives in increasingly isolated populations.⁵ Consequently, the range-wide management of the jaguar depends upon maintaining core populations connected through multi-national, transboundary cooperation, which requires understanding the movement ecology and space use of jaguars throughout their range.^6-8 Using GPS telemetry data for 111 jaguars from 13 ecoregions within the four biomes that constitute the majority of jaguar habitat, we examined the landscape-level environmental and anthropogenic factors related to jaguar home range size and movement parameters. Home range size decreased with increasing net productivity and forest cover and increased with increasing road density. Speed decreased with increasing forest cover with no sexual differences, while males had more directional movements, but tortuosity in movements was not related to any landscape factors. We demonstrated a synergistic relationship between landscape-scale environmental and anthropogenic factors and jaguars' spatial needs, which has applications to the conservation strategy for the species throughout the Neotropics. Using large-scale collaboration, we overcame limitations from small sample sizes typical in large carnivore research to provide a mechanism to evaluate habitat quality for jaguars and an inferential modeling framework adaptable to the conservation of other large terrestrial carnivores.

Reducing persecution is more effective for restoring large carnivores than restoring their prey

Large carnivores are currently disappearing from many world regions because of habitat loss, prey depletion, and persecution. Ensuring large carnivore persistence requires safeguarding and sometimes facilitating the expansion of their populations. Understanding which conservation strategies, such as reducing persecution or restoring prey, are most effective to help carnivores to reclaim their former ranges is therefore important. Here, we systematically explored such alternative strategies for the endangered Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) in the Caucasus. We combined a rule-based habitat suitability map and a spatially explicit leopard population model to identify potential leopard subpopulations (i.e., breeding patches), and to test the effect of different levels of persecution reduction and prey restoration on leopard population viability across the entire Caucasus ecoregion and northern Iran (about 737,000 km² ). We identified substantial areas of potentially suitable leopard habitat (~120,000 km² ), most of which is currently unoccupied. Our model revealed that leopards could potentially recolonize these patches and increase to a population of >1,000 individuals in 100 yr, but only in scenarios of medium to high persecution reduction and prey restoration. Overall, reducing persecution had a more pronounced effect on leopard metapopulation viability than prey restoration: Without conservation strategies to reduce persecution, leopards went extinct from the Caucasus in all scenarios tested. Our study highlights the importance of persecution reduction in small populations, which should hence be prioritized when resources for conservation are limited. We show how individual-based, spatially explicit metapopulation models can help in quantifying the recolonization potential of large carnivores in unoccupied habitat, designing adequate conservation strategies to foster such recolonizations, and anticipating the long-term prospects of carnivore populations under alternative scenarios. Our study also outlines how data scarcity, which is typical for threatened range-expanding species, can be overcome with a rule-based habitat map. For Persian leopards, our projections clearly suggest that there is a large potential for a viable metapopulation in the Caucasus, but only if major conservation actions are taken towards reducing persecution and restoring prey.

Habitat loss on the breeding grounds is a major contributor to population declines in a long-distance migratory songbird

Many migratory species are declining and for most, the proximate causes of their declines remain unknown. For many long-distance Neotropical migratory songbirds, it is assumed that habitat loss on breeding or non-breeding grounds is a primary driver of population declines. We integrated data collected from tracking technology, community science and remote sensing data to quantify migratory connectivity (MC), population trends and habitat loss. We quantified the correlation between forest change throughout the annual cycle and population declines of a long-distance migratory songbird, the Connecticut warbler (Oporornis agilis, observed decline: -8.99% yr-1). MC, the geographic link between populations during two or more phases of the annual cycle, was stronger between breeding and autumn migration routes (MC = 0.24 ± 0.23) than between breeding and non-breeding locations (MC = -0.2 ± 0.14). Different Connecticut warbler populations tended to have population-specific fall migration routes but overlapped almost completely within the northern Gran Chaco ecoregion in South America. Cumulative forest loss within 50 km of breeding locations and the resulting decline in the largest forested patch index was correlated more strongly with population declines than forest loss on migratory stopover regions or on wintering locations in South America, suggesting that habitat loss during the breeding season is a driver of observed population declines for the Connecticut warbler. Land-use practices that retain large, forested patches within landscapes will likely benefit breeding populations of this declining songbird, but further research is needed to help inform land-use practices across the full annual cycle to minimize the impacts to migratory songbirds and abate ongoing population declines.

Satellite-based habitat monitoring reveals long-term dynamics of deer habitat in response to forest disturbances

Disturbances play a key role in driving forest ecosystem dynamics, but how disturbances shape wildlife habitat across space and time often remains unclear. A major reason for this is a lack of information about changes in habitat suitability across large areas and longer time periods. Here, we use a novel approach based on Landsat satellite image time series to map seasonal habitat suitability annually from 1986 to 2017. Our approach involves characterizing forest disturbance dynamics using Landsat-based metrics, harmonizing these metrics through a temporal segmentation algorithm, and then using them together with GPS telemetry data in habitat models. We apply this framework to assess how natural forest disturbances and post-disturbance salvage logging affect habitat suitability for two ungulates, roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) and red deer (Cervus elaphus), over 32 yr in a Central European forest landscape. We found that red and roe deer differed in their response to forest disturbances. Habitat suitability for red deer consistently improved after disturbances, whereas the suitability of disturbed sites was more variable for roe deer depending on season (lower during winter than summer) and disturbance agent (lower in windthrow vs. bark-beetle-affected stands). Salvage logging altered the suitability of bark beetle-affected stands for deer, having negative effects on red deer and mixed effects on roe deer, but generally did not have clear effects on habitat suitability in windthrows. Our results highlight long-lasting legacy effects of forest disturbances on deer habitat. For example, bark beetle disturbances improved red deer habitat suitability for at least 25 yr. The duration of disturbance impacts generally increased with elevation. Methodologically, our approach proved effective for improving the robustness of habitat reconstructions from Landsat time series: integrating multiyear telemetry data into single, multi-temporal habitat models improved model transferability in time. Likewise, temporally segmenting the Landsat-based metrics increased the temporal consistency of our habitat suitability maps. As the frequency of natural forest disturbances is increasing across the globe, their impacts on wildlife habitat should be considered in wildlife and forest management. Our approach offers a widely applicable method for monitoring habitat suitability changes caused by landscape dynamics such as forest disturbance.

Habitat destruction and overexploitation drive widespread declines in all facets of mammalian diversity in the Gran Chaco

Global biodiversity is under high and rising anthropogenic pressure. Yet, how the taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional facets of biodiversity are affected by different threats over time is unclear. This is particularly true for the two main drivers of the current biodiversity crisis: habitat destruction and overexploitation. We provide the first long-term assessment of multifaceted biodiversity changes caused by these threats for any tropical region. Focussing on larger mammals in South America's 1.1 million km² Gran Chaco region, we assessed changes in multiple biodiversity facets between 1985 and 2015, determined which threats drive those changes, and identified remaining key areas for all biodiversity facets. Using habitat and threat maps, we found, first, that between 1985 and 2015 taxonomic (TD), phylogenetic (PD) and functional (FD) diversity all declined drastically across over half of the area assessed. FD declined about 50% faster than TD and PD, and these declines were mainly driven by species loss, rather than species turnover. Second, habitat destruction, hunting, and both threats together contributed ~57%, ~37%, and ~6% to overall facet declines, respectively. However, hunting pressure increased where TD and PD declined most strongly, whereas habitat destruction disproportionally contributed to FD declines. Third, just 23% of the Chaco would have to be protected to safeguard the top 17% of all three facets. Our findings uncover a widespread impoverishment of mammal species richness, evolutionary history, and ecological functions across broad areas of the Chaco due to increasing habitat destruction and hunting. Moreover, our results pinpoint key areas that should be preserved and managed to maintain all facets of mammalian diversity across the Chaco. More generally, our work highlights how long-term changes in biodiversity facets can be assessed and attributed to specific threats, to better understand human impacts on biodiversity and to guide conservation planning to mitigate them.

Combined effects of land use and hunting on distributions of tropical mammals

Land use and hunting are 2 major pressures on biodiversity in the tropics. Yet, their combined impacts have not been systematically quantified at a large scale. We estimated the effects of both pressures on the distributions of 1884 tropical mammal species by integrating species' range maps, detailed land-use maps (1992 and 2015), species-specific habitat preference data, and a hunting pressure model. We further identified areas where the combined impacts were greatest (hotspots) and least (coolspots) to determine priority areas for mitigation or prevention of the pressures. Land use was the main driver of reduced distribution of all mammal species considered. Yet, hunting pressure caused additional reductions in large-bodied species' distributions. Together, land use and hunting reduced distributions of species by 41% (SD 30) on average (year 2015). Overlap between impacts was only 2% on average. Land use contributed more to the loss of distribution (39% on average) than hunting (4% on average). However, hunting reduced the distribution of large mammals by 29% on average; hence, large mammals lost a disproportional amount of area due to the combination of both pressures. Gran Chaco, the Atlantic Forest, and Thailand had high levels of impact across the species (hotspots of area loss). In contrast, the Amazon and Congo Basins, the Guianas, and Borneo had relatively low levels of impact (coolspots of area loss). Overall, hunting pressure and human land use increased from 1992 to 2015 and corresponding losses in distribution increased from 38% to 41% on average across the species. To effectively protect tropical mammals, conservation policies should address both pressures simultaneously because their effects are highly complementary. Our spatially detailed and species-specific results may support future national and global conservation agendas, including the design of post-2020 protected area targets and strategies.

Population genetic structure and habitat connectivity for jaguar (Panthera onca) conservation in Central Belize

BACKGROUND

Connectivity among jaguar (Panthera onca) populations will ensure natural gene flow and the long-term survival of the species throughout its range. Jaguar conservation efforts have focused primarily on connecting suitable habitat in a broad-scale. Accelerated habitat reduction, human-wildlife conflict, limited funding, and the complexity of jaguar behaviour have proven challenging to maintain connectivity between populations effectively. Here, we used non-invasive genetic sampling and individual-based conservation genetic analyses to assess genetic diversity and levels of genetic connectivity between individuals in the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary and the Maya Forest Corridor. We used expert knowledge and scientific literature to develop models of landscape permeability based on circuit theory with fine-scale landscape features as ecosystem types, distance to human settlements and roads to predict the most probable jaguar movement across central Belize.

RESULTS

We used 12 highly polymorphic microsatellite loci to identify 50 individual jaguars. We detected high levels of genetic diversity across loci (HE = 0.61, HO = 0.55, and NA = 9.33). Using Bayesian clustering and multivariate models to assess gene flow and genetic structure, we identified one single group of jaguars (K = 1). We identified critical areas for jaguar movement that fall outside the boundaries of current protected areas in central Belize. We detected two main areas of high landscape permeability in a stretch of approximately 18 km between Sittee River Forest Reserve and Manatee Forest Reserve that may increase functional connectivity and facilitate jaguar dispersal from and to Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary. Our analysis provides important insights on fine-scale genetic and landscape connectivity of jaguars in central Belize, an area of conservation concern.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of our study demonstrate high levels of relatively recent gene flow for jaguars between two study sites in central Belize. Our landscape analysis detected corridors of expected jaguar movement between the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary and the Maya Forest Corridor. We highlight the importance of maintaining already established corridors and consolidating new areas that further promote jaguar movement across suitable habitat beyond the boundaries of currently protected areas. Continued conservation efforts within identified corridors will further maintain and increase genetic connectivity in central Belize.

Spatiotemporal Distribution of Human–Elephant Conflict in Eastern Thailand: A Model-Based Assessment Using News Reports and Remotely Sensed Data

In Thailand, crop depredation by wild elephants intensified, impacting the quality of life of local communities and long-term conservation of wild elephant populations. Yet, fewer studies explore the landscape-scale spatiotemporal distribution of human–elephant conflict (HEC). In this study, we modeled the potential HEC distribution in ten provinces adjacent to protected areas in Eastern Thailand from 2009 to 2018. We applied the time-calibrated maximum entropy method and modeled the relative probability of HEC in varying scenarios of resource suitability and direct human pressure in wet and dry seasons. The environmental dynamic over the 10-year period was represented by remotely sensed vegetation, meteorological drought, topographical, and human-pressure data. Results were categorized in HEC zones using the proposed two-dimensional conflict matrix. Logistic regression was applied to determine the relevant contribution of each scenario. The results showed that although HEC probability varied across seasons, overall HEC-prone areas expanded in all provinces from 2009 to 2018. The largest HEC areas were estimated during dry seasons with Chantaburi, Chonburi, Nakhon Ratchasima, and Rayong provinces being the HEC hotspots.However, the HEC potential was reduced during severe and prolonged droughts caused by El Nino events. Direct human pressure caused a more gradual increase of HEC probability around protected areas. On the other hand, resource suitability showed large variation across seasons. We recommend zone-dependent management actions towards a fine-balance between human development and the conservation of wild elephants.

Are Ecological Modernization Narratives Useful for Understanding and Steering Social-Ecological Change in the Argentine Chaco?

During the past decades, the Ecological Modernization Theory, and associated ideas such as the Forest Transition Theory and Land Sparing Hypothesis, have dominated the academic and policy arenas regarding the solutions to current environmental crises. However, critiques were raised as these theories, originally conceived for developed countries, started to be applied in developing countries for explaining and prescribing social-ecological transitions. Here, we assess the validity of five key assumptions of Ecological Modernization narratives as applied to the Argentine Chaco, a global deforestation hotspot. We reviewed existing literature and conducted straightforward analysis to disentangle relationships among key variables. Although agriculture intensified, there is no evidence that this intensification inhibited agricultural expansion. Rural depopulation took place between 2001 and 2010; however, deforestation rates did not decrease, and the quality of life of migrants did not increase compared to those that stayed in rural areas. Our review suggests that the consequences of agriculture intensification on biodiversity and the provision of multiple ecosystem services exceeds the area used. Therefore, available evidence does not support the assumed causal relationships of Ecological Modernization, and even contradicts most assumptions. We propose a series of analytical shifts to better capture the complexity of social-ecological transitions in modern commodity frontiers.