Distance-dependent seedling mortality and long-term spacing dynamics in a neotropical forest community

Accelerated succession in Himalayan alpine treelines under climatic warming

Understanding how climate change influences succession is fundamental for predicting future forest composition. Warming is expected to accelerate species succession at their cold thermal ranges, such as alpine treelines. Here we examined how interactions and successional strategies of the early-successional birch (Betula utilis) and the late-successional fir (Abies spectabilis) affected treeline dynamics by combining plot data with an individual-based treeline model at treelines in the central Himalayas. Fir showed increasing recruitment and a higher upslope shift rate (0.11 ± 0.02 m yr-1) compared with birch (0.06 ± 0.03 m yr-1) over the past 200 years. Spatial analyses indicate strong interspecies competition when trees were young. Model outputs from various climatic scenarios indicate that fir will probably accelerate its upslope movement with warming, while birch recruitment will decline drastically, forming stable or even retreating treelines. Our findings point to accelerating successional dynamics with late-successional species rapidly outcompeting pioneer species, offering insight into future forest succession and its influences on ecosystem services.

Consequences of Local Conspecific Density Effects for Plant Diversity and Community Dynamics

Conspecific density dependence (CDD) in plant populations is widespread, most likely caused by local-scale biotic interactions, and has potentially important implications for biodiversity, community composition, and ecosystem processes. However, progress in this important area of ecology has been hindered by differing viewpoints on CDD across subfields in ecology, lack of synthesis across CDD-related frameworks, and misunderstandings about how empirical measurements of local CDD fit within the context of broader ecological theories on community assembly and diversity maintenance. Here, we propose a conceptual synthesis of local-scale CDD and its causes, including species-specific antagonistic and mutualistic interactions. First, we compare and clarify different uses of CDD and related concepts across subfields within ecology. We suggest the use of local stabilizing/destabilizing CDD to refer to the scenario where local conspecific density effects are more negative/positive than heterospecific effects. Second, we discuss different mechanisms for local stabilizing and destabilizing CDD, how those mechanisms are interrelated, and how they cut across several fields of study within ecology. Third, we place local stabilizing/destabilizing CDD within the context of broader ecological theories and discuss implications and challenges related to scaling up the effects of local CDD on populations, communities, and metacommunities. The ultimate goal of this synthesis is to provide a conceptual roadmap for researchers studying local CDD and its implications for population and community dynamics.

Drought tolerance and species abundance mediate dry season negative density dependence in a tropical forest

Conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD) is thought to be a key process in maintaining plant diversity. However, the strength of CNDD is highly variable in space and time as well as among species, and correlates of this variation that might help to understand and explain it remain largely unquantified. Using Bayesian hierarchical models, we took advantage of 10-year seedling monitoring data that were collected annually in every dry and rainy season in a seasonal tropical forest. We quantified the interspecific variation in the strength of CNDD and its temporal variation. We also examined potential correlates of this interspecific and temporal variation, including species functional traits (such as drought-tolerant traits, defense-related traits, and recourse acquisition traits) and species abundances. In the dry season, we found a negative relationship between the density of neighboring conspecific seedlings on seedling survival, while in the rainy season, there was a negative relationship between the density of neighboring conspecific adults on seedling survival. In addition, we found that interspecific variation in CNDD was related to drought-tolerant traits in the dry season but not in the rainy season. Across years, we found that drought-intolerant species suffer less CNDD during the dry seasons that have higher rainfall, whereas drought-tolerant species suffer less CNDD when the dry season has lower rainfall. We also found that rare species suffered stronger CNDD in the dry season. Overall, our study highlights that CNDD is highly variable among species and through time, necessitating a deeper appreciation of the environmental and functional contexts of CNDD and their interactions.

Spatial Distribution of Pinus koraiensis Trees and Community-Level Spatial Associations in Broad-Leaved Korean Pine Mixed Forests in Northeastern China

Investigating the spatial distributions and associations of tree populations provides better insights into the dynamics and processes that shape the forest community. Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) is one of the most important tree species in broad-leaved Korean pine mixed forests (BKMFs), and little is known about the spatial point patterns of and associations between Korean pine and community-level woody species groups such as coniferous and deciduous trees in different developmental stages. This study investigated the spatial patterns of Korean pine (KP) trees and then analyzed how the spatial associations between KP trees and other tree species at the community level vary in different BKMFs. Extensive data collected from five relatively large sample plots, covering a substantial area within the natural distribution range of KP in northeastern China, were utilized. Uni- and bivariate pair correlation functions and mark correlation functions were applied to analyze spatial distribution patterns and spatial associations. The DBH (diameter at breast height) histogram of KP trees in northeastern China revealed that the regeneration process was very poor in the Changbai Mountain (CBS) plot, while the other four plots exhibited moderate or expanding population structures. KP trees were significantly aggregated at scales up to 10 m under the HPP null model, and the aggregation scales decreased with the increase in size classes. Positive or negative spatial associations were observed among different life stages of KP trees in different plots. The life history stages of the coniferous tree group showed positive spatial associations with KP saplings and juvenile trees at small scales, and spatial independence or negative correlations with larger KP trees at greater scales. All broad-leaved tree groups (canopy, middle, and understory layers) exhibited only slightly positive associations with KP trees at small scales, and dominant negative associations were observed at most scales. Our results demonstrate that mature KP trees have strong importance in the spatial patterns of KP populations, and site heterogeneity, limited seed dispersal, and interspecific competition characterize the spatial patterns of KP trees and community-level spatial associations with respect to KP trees, which can serve as a theoretical basis for the management and restoration of BKMFs in northeastern China.

Responses of tree seedlings to understory filtering by the recalcitrant fern layer in a subtropical forest

The recalcitrant understory fern layer is an important ecological filter for seedling regeneration, yet how the fern layer influences seedling regeneration dynamics remains unclear. Here we transplanted 576 seedlings of four dominant tree species, Castanopsis fargesii, Lithocarpus glaber, Schima superba and Hovenia acerba, to the treatments of Diplopterygium glaucum retention and removal under an evergreen broad-leaved forest in eastern China. We monitored the survival, growth and biomass data of these seedlings for 28 months, and then used generalized linear mixed models to evaluate the treatment effects on seedling survival, growth, biomass and root-shoot ratio. Our results showed that fern retention significantly inhibited the seedling establishment of all four species. During the seedling development stage, the seedling relative growth rate of L. glaber decreased under fern retention, which was not the case for the other three species. Root-shoot ratio of C. fargesii and L. glaber increased significantly under fern retention. Our findings provide new evidence of the filtering effect of a recalcitrant fern understory. Notably, we observed that the response of tree seedlings to the recalcitrant fern understory was more sensitive in the establishment stage. Finally, our work highlights that the filtering effect of the recalcitrant fern understory changes depending on the regeneration stages, and that shade-tolerant species, C. fargesii and L. glaber were even more affected by fern disturbed habitats, suggesting that effective management should attempt to curb forest fern outbreaks, thus unblocking forest recruitment.

Differential impacts of adult trees on offspring and non-offspring recruits in a subtropical forest

An important mechanism promoting species coexistence is conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD), which inhibits conspecific neighbors by accumulating host-specific enemies near adult trees. Natural enemies may be genotype-specific and regulate offspring dynamics more strongly than non-offspring, which is often neglected due to the difficulty in ascertaining genetic relatedness. Here, we investigated whether offspring and non-offspring of a dominant species, Castanopsis eyrei, suffered from different strength of CNDD based on parentage assignment in a subtropical forest. We found decreased recruitment efficiency (proxy of survival probability) of offspring compared with non-offspring near adult trees during the seedling-sapling transition, suggesting genotype-dependent interactions drive tree demographic dynamics. Furthermore, the genetic similarity between individuals of same cohort decreased in late life history stages, indicating genetic-relatedness-dependent tree mortality throughout ontogeny. Our results demonstrate that within-species genetic relatedness significantly affects the strength of CNDD, implying genotype-specific natural enemies may contribute to population dynamics in natural forests.

Seedling survival simultaneously determined by conspecific, heterospecific, and phylogenetically related neighbors and habitat heterogeneity in a subtropical forest in Taiwan

Density dependence and habitat heterogeneity have been recognized as important driving mechanisms that shape the patterns of seedling survival and promote species coexistence in species-rich forests. In this study, we evaluated the relative importance of density dependence by conspecific, heterospecific, and phylogenetically related neighbors and habitat heterogeneity on seedling survival in the Lienhuachih (LHC) Forest, a subtropical, evergreen forest in central Taiwan. Age-specific effects of different variables were also studied. We monitored the fates of 1,642 newly recruited seedlings of woody plants within a 25-ha Forest Dynamics Plot for 2 years. The effects of conspecific, heterospecific, and phylogenetically related neighbors and habitat heterogeneity on seedling survival were analyzed by generalized linear mixed models. Our results indicated that conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD) had a strong impact on seedling survival, and the effects of CNDD increased with seedling age. Heterospecific positive density dependence (HPDD) and phylogenetic positive density dependence (PPDD) had a significant influence on the survival of seedlings, and stronger HPDD and PPDD effects were detected for older seedlings. Furthermore, seedling survival differed among habitats significantly. Seedling survival was significantly higher in the plateau, high-slope, and low-slope habitats than in the valley. Overall, our results suggested that the effects of CNDD, HPDD, PPDD, and habitat heterogeneity influenced seedling survival simultaneously in the LHC subtropical forest, but their relative importance varied with seedling age. Such findings from our subtropical forest were slightly different from tropical forests, and these contrasting patterns may be attributed to differences in abiotic environments. These findings highlight the importance to incorporate phylogenetic relatedness, seedling age, and habitat heterogeneity when investigating the impacts of density dependence on seedling survival that may contribute to species coexistence in seedling communities.

Warming intensifies soil pathogen negative feedback on a temperate tree

The soil pathogen-induced Janzen-Connell (JC) effect is considered as a primary mechanism regulating plant biodiversity worldwide. As predicted by the framework of the classic plant disease triangle, severity of plant diseases is often influenced by temperature, yet insufficient understanding of how increasing temperatures affect the JC effect contributes uncertainty in predictions about how global warming affects biodiversity. We conducted a 3-yr field warming experiment, combining open-top chambers with pesticide treatment, to test the effect of elevated temperatures on seedling mortality of a temperate tree species, Prunus padus, from a genus with known susceptibility to soil-borne pathogens. Elevated temperature significantly increased the mortality of P. padus seedlings in the immediate vicinity of parent trees, concurrent with increased relative abundance of pathogenic fungi identified to be virulent to Prunus species. Our study offers experimental evidence suggesting that global warming significantly intensifies the JC effect on a temperate tree species due to increased relative abundance of pathogenic fungi. This work advances our understanding about changes in the JC effect linked to ongoing global warming, which has important implications for predicting tree diversity in a warmer future.

Common spatial patterns of trees in various tropical forests: Small trees are associated with increased diversity at small spatial scales

Tropical forests are notable for their high species diversity, even on small spatial scales, and right-skewed species and size abundance distributions. The role of individual species as drivers of the spatial organization of diversity in these forests has been explained by several hypotheses and processes, for example, stochastic dilution, negative density dependence, or gap dynamics. These processes leave a signature in spatial distribution of small trees, particularly in the vicinity of large trees, likely having stronger effects on their neighbors. We are exploring species diversity patterns within the framework of various diversity-generating hypotheses using individual species-area relationships. We used the data from three tropical forest plots (Wanang-Papua New Guinea, Barro Colorado Island-Panama, and Sinharaja-Sri Lanka) and included also the saplings (DBH ≥ 1 cm). Resulting cross-size patterns of species richness and evenness reflect the dynamics of saplings affected by the distribution of large trees. When all individuals with DBH ≥1 cm are included, ~50% of all tree species from the 25- or 50-ha plot can be found within 35 m radius of an individual tree. For all trees, 72%-78% of species were identified as species richness accumulators, having more species present in their surroundings than expected by null models. This pattern was driven by small trees as the analysis of DBH >10 cm trees showed much lower proportion of accumulators, 14%-65% of species identified as richness repellers and had low richness of surrounding small trees. Only 11%-26% of species had lower species evenness than was expected by null models. High proportions of species richness accumulators were probably due to gap dynamics and support Janzen-Connell hypothesis driven by competition or top-down control by pathogens and herbivores. Observed species diversity patterns show the importance of including small tree size classes in analyses of the spatial organization of diversity.

Habitat filtering drives the local distribution of congeneric species in a Brazilian white-sand flooded tropical forest

The investigation of ecological processes that maintain species coexistence is revealing in naturally disturbed environments such as the white-sand tropical forest, which is subject to periodic flooding that might pose strong habitat filtering to tree species. Congeneric species are a good model to investigate the relative importance of ecological processes that maintain high species diversity because they tend to exploit the same limiting resources and/or have similar tolerance limits to the same environmental conditions due to their close phylogenetic relationship. We aim to find evidence for the action and relative importance of different processes hypothesized to maintain species coexistence in a white-sand flooded forest in Brazil, taking advantage of data on the detailed spatial structure of populations of congeneric species. Individuals of three Myrcia species were tagged, mapped, and measured for diameter at soil height in a 1-ha plot. We also sampled seven environmental variables in the plot. We employed several spatial point process models to investigate the possible action of habitat filtering, interspecific competition, and dispersal limitation. Habitat filtering was the most important process driving the local distribution of the three Myrcia species, as they showed associations, albeit of different strength, to environmental variables related to flooding. We did not detect spatial patterns, such as spatial segregation and smaller size of nearby neighbors, that would be consistent with interspecific competition among the three congeneric species and other co-occurring species. Even though congeners were spatially independent, they responded to differences in the environment. Last, dispersal limitation only led to spatial associations of different size classes for one of the species. Given that white-sand flooded forests are highly threatened in Brazil, the preservation of their different habitats is of utmost importance to the maintenance of high species richness, as flooding drives the distribution of species in the community.

Is Variation in Conspecific Negative Density Dependence Driving Tree Diversity Patterns at Large Scales?

Half a century ago, Janzen and Connell hypothesized that the high tree species diversity in tropical forests is maintained by specialized natural enemies. Along with other mechanisms, these can cause conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD) and thus maintain species diversity. Numerous studies have measured proxies of CNDD worldwide, but doubt about its relative importance remains. We find ample evidence for CNDD in local populations, but methodological limitations make it difficult to assess if CNDD scales up to control community diversity and thereby local and global biodiversity patterns. A combination of more robust statistical methods, new study designs, and eco-evolutionary models are needed to provide a more definite evaluation of the importance of CNDD for geographic variation in plant species diversity.

At 50, Janzen–Connell Has Come of Age

Fifty years ago, Janzen (1970) and Connell (1971) independently published a revolutionary idea to explain the hyperdiverse tree communities of the tropics. The essential observations were that seedfall is concentrated in the vicinity of fruiting trees, whereas saplings recruit at a distance from reproductive conspecifics. These observations were encapsulated in a simple focal-tree model constructed of intersecting curves for seedfall and escape from host-specific enemies postulated to attack propagules (seeds and seedlings) in the vicinity of reproductive conspecifics. In conflict with the thinking of the times, the mechanism operates from the top down rather than from the bottom up. A deterrent to broad acceptance has been the giant intuitive leap required to generalize the focal tree model to an entire forest community. Recent theoretical and empirical results have succeeded in bridging the gap between the focal tree model and its community-level implications. With these new findings, Janzen–Connell has come of age.

Conspecific negative density dependence in rainy season enhanced seedling diversity across habitats in a tropical forest

Conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD) could be one of the most important local-scale mechanisms shaping plant species coexistence. However, the spatial and temporal changes in the strength CNDD and the implications for the plant diversity remain unknown. We used 10 years of seedling data, in a seasonal tropical rainforest, to discover how CNDD influences tree seedling survival across habitats and seasons. We also evaluated the relation between CNDD and species diversity. We found the strength of CNDD in the valley habitat was significantly stronger than in ridge habitat in rainy season, but not significantly different in dry season. Corresponding to expectations of CNDD as mechanism of diversity maintenance, seedling species diversity was significantly higher in valley habitat than in ridge habitat and significantly correlated with CNDD. Additionally, conspecific and heterospecific seedling neighbour densities positively affected the survival of tree seedlings, but heterospecific adult neighbour density had a weak effect. Our study finds that CNDD varied significantly across habitats and was correlated with local seedling diversity. Our results highlight the importance of CNDD in driving species diversity at the local scale. Recognizing the spatial and temporal variation in the strength of CNDD will aid efforts to model and understand species coexistence.

Conspecific distance-dependent seedling performance, and replacement of conspecific seedlings by heterospecifics in five hardwood, temperate forest species

The mechanisms driving species diversity in the context of Janzen-Connell model are best understood by evaluating not only conspecific distance-dependent (CDD) seedling performance, but also replacement of conspecific seedlings by heterospecific seedlings beneath adult trees. We evaluated CDD and replacement as a log response ratio of seedling performance (height, age) directly beneath and at a distance from adult plants in a temperate forest, and examined the log response ratio of that between conspecifics and heterospecifics beneath adults for five hardwood species with different ecological traits (e.g., seed size, mycorrhizal type, relative abundance). CDD was greater in three small-seeded species with arbuscular mycorrhizae (AM) associations than it was in two large-seeded species with ectomycorrhizae (EM) associations. Replacement was also higher for small-seeded AM species compared to large-seeded EM species, resulting in a strong, positive relationship between CDD and replacement. The traits suggest that small-seeded AM seedlings are more likely to be replaced by heterologous seedlings beneath the adults than large-seeded EM seedlings, probably due to that the small-seeded AM species are more susceptible to attack by plant natural enemies (e.g., soil pathogens, leaf diseases). As a result, small-seeded AM species had lower relative abundances compared to large-seeded EM species. This study suggests that either seed size or associations with microorganisms play an important role in driving forest diversity by regulating replacement and CDD, although relative importance of the two traits (i.e., seed size, mycorrhizal type) remains unclear, because of the autocorrelation between the two traits for the five species studied.

Tree species traits affect which natural enemies drive the Janzen-Connell effect in a temperate forest

A prominent tree species coexistence mechanism suggests host-specific natural enemies inhibit seedling recruitment at high conspecific density (negative conspecific density dependence). Natural-enemy-mediated conspecific density dependence affects numerous tree populations, but its strength varies substantially among species. Understanding how conspecific density dependence varies with species’ traits and influences the dynamics of whole communities remains a challenge. Using a three-year manipulative community-scale experiment in a temperate forest, we show that plant-associated fungi, and to a lesser extent insect herbivores, reduce seedling recruitment and survival at high adult conspecific density. Plant-associated fungi are primarily responsible for reducing seedling recruitment near conspecific adults in ectomycorrhizal and shade-tolerant species. Insects, in contrast, primarily inhibit seedling recruitment of shade-intolerant species near conspecific adults. Our results suggest that natural enemies drive conspecific density dependence in this temperate forest and that which natural enemies are responsible depends on the mycorrhizal association and shade tolerance of tree species.

The Janzen-Connell hypothesis posits that seedlings may be less likely to establish near conspecifics due to shared natural enemies. Here, Jia et al. show that tree species traits determine whether fungal pathogens or insect herbivores inhibit seedling recruitment and survival in a temperate forest.

Seed-to-seedling transitions exhibit distance-dependent mortality but no strong spacing effects in a Neotropical forest

Patterns of seed dispersal and seed mortality influence the spatial structure of plant communities and the local coexistence of competing species. Most seeds are dispersed in proximity to the parent tree, where mortality is also expected to be the highest, because of competition with siblings or the attraction of natural enemies. Whereas distance-dependent mortality in the seed-to-seedling transition was often observed in tropical forests, few studies have attempted to estimate the shape of the survival-distance curves, which determines whether the peak of seedling establishment occurs away from the parent tree (Janzen-Connell pattern) or if the peak attenuates but remains at the parent location (Hubbell pattern). In this study, we inferred the probability density of seed dispersal and two stages of seedling establishment (new recruits, and seedlings 20 cm or taller) with distance for 24 tree species present in the 50-ha Forest Dynamics Plot of Barro Colorado Island, Panama. Using data from seed traps, seedling survey quadrats, and tree-census records spanning the 1988-2014 period, we fit hierarchical Bayesian models including parameters for tree fecundity, the shape of the dispersal kernel, and overdispersion of seed or seedling counts. We combined predictions from multiple dispersal kernels to obtain more robust inferences. We find that Hubbell patterns are the most common and Janzen-Connell patterns are very rare among those species; that distance-dependent mortality may be stronger in the seed stage, in the early recruit stage, or comparable in both; and that species with larger seeds experience less overall mortality and less distance-dependent mortality. Finally, we describe how this modeling approach could be extended at a community scale to include less abundant species.

Pollination outcomes reveal negative density-dependence coupled with interspecific facilitation among plants

Pollination is thought to be under positive density-dependence, destabilising plant coexistence by conferring fitness disadvantages to rare species. Such disadvantage is exacerbated by interspecific competition but can be mitigated by facilitation and intraspecific competition. However, pollinator scarcity should enhance intraspecific plant competition and impose disadvantage on common over rare species (negative density-dependence, NDD). We assessed pollination proxies (visitation rate, pollen receipt, pollen tubes) in a generalised plant community and related them to conspecific and heterospecific density, expecting NDD and interspecific facilitation due to the natural pollinator scarcity. Contrary to usual expectations, all proxies indicated strong intraspecific competition for common plants. Moreover interspecific facilitation prevailed and was stronger for rare than for common plants. Both NDD and interspecific facilitation were modulated by specialisation, floral display and pollinator group. The combination of intraspecific competition and interspecific facilitation fosters plant coexistence, suggesting that pollination can be a niche axis maintaining plant diversity.

Evidence of within-species specialization by soil microbes and the implications for plant community diversity

Microbes are thought to maintain diversity in plant communities by specializing on particular species, but it is not known whether microbes that specialize within species (i.e., on genotypes) affect diversity or dynamics in plant communities. Here we show that soil microbes can specialize at the within-population level in a wild plant species, and that such specialization could promote species diversity and seed dispersal in plant communities. In a shadehouse experiment in Panama, we found that seedlings of the native tree species, Virola surinamensis (Myristicaceae), had reduced performance in the soil microbial community of their maternal tree compared with in the soil microbial community of a nonmaternal tree from the same population. Performance differences were unrelated to soil nutrients or to colonization by mycorrhizal fungi, suggesting that highly specialized pathogens were the mechanism reducing seedling performance in maternal soils. We then constructed a simulation model to explore the ecological and evolutionary consequences of genotype-specific pathogens in multispecies plant communities. Model results indicated that genotype-specific pathogens promote plant species coexistence-albeit less strongly than species-specific pathogens-and are most effective at maintaining species richness when genetic diversity is relatively low. Simulations also revealed that genotype-specific pathogens select for increased seed dispersal relative to species-specific pathogens, potentially helping to create seed dispersal landscapes that allow pathogens to more effectively promote diversity. Combined, our results reveal that soil microbes can specialize within wild plant populations, affecting seedling performance near conspecific adults and influencing plant community dynamics on ecological and evolutionary time scales.

The role of plant functional traits in understanding forest recovery in wet tropical secondary forests

Simultaneous measurement of plant functional traits and the regeneration environment should shed light on the plant-environment interactions and feedbacks as secondary forest regenerates. However, little of such work has been done in the wet tropics, and even fewer studies have examined soil nutrients. We investigated whether plant functional traits and environmental variables explain the varied recovery of secondary forests in Singapore. Our study plots included three primary forest plots and eight approximately 60-year-old secondary forest plots regenerating from intensive agricultural activities. Using 35 seedling quadrats, we asked: Q1) How do environmental variables explain the variation in seedling functional traits observed in primary and secondary forests? Q2) How do seedling traits, adult traits and environmental variables relate and explain variation in species richness and stem density in secondary forests? We found that both light and soil fertility explained the shifts in plants functional traits from poorly recovering secondary forests to primary forests. Poor forest regrowth was correlated with high soil aluminum levels and lower leaf nitrogen concentrations. Low nutrients and high aluminum saturation were also negatively correlated with seedling species richness, but not stem density, in the secondary forests. Forest recovery is probably slowed by positive feedback between slower nutrient returns from slow decaying litter and further recruitment of nutrient conserving species, as indicated by positive correlations among adult leaf CN ratio, litter depth, soil CN ratio and quadrat level CN ratio. Plant functional traits are indicative of the strategies of successful seedlings and do not necessarily relate to overall forest recovery. Hence, while some specialist plant species are able to accrue high nutrients on degraded soils with aluminum toxicity and low nutrients, species richness on these soils was poor. This underscores the need to concurrently measure environmental variables and plant traits when investigating the mechanisms driving changes during forest recovery.

Density-dependent adult recruitment in a low-density tropical tree

An important class of negative feedbacks in population dynamics is the activity of host-specific enemies that disproportionately kill individuals in locations where they are common. This mechanism, called the Janzen–Connell hypothesis, has been proposed as a determinant of the large number of species in tropical forests. A critical but untested assumption of the hypothesis is that density-dependent mortality among juvenile trees reduces the probability of adult recruitment. Here, we show that adult recruitment is negatively density dependent in a low-density tree population using time series from high-resolution remote sensing. However, this density dependence was not strong enough to stabilize the size of the adult population, which increased significantly in size.

The Janzen–Connell hypothesis is a well-known explanation for why tropical forests have large numbers of tree species. A fundamental prediction of the hypothesis is that the probability of adult recruitment is less in regions of high conspecific adult density, a pattern mediated by density-dependent mortality in juvenile life stages. Although there is strong evidence in many tree species that seeds, seedlings, and saplings suffer conspecific density-dependent mortality, no study has shown that adult tree recruitment is negatively density dependent. Density-dependent adult recruitment is necessary for the Janzen–Connell mechanism to regulate tree populations. Here, we report density-dependent adult recruitment in the population of Handroanthus guayacan, a wind-dispersed Neotropical canopy tree species. We use data from high-resolution remote sensing to track individual trees with proven capacity to flower in a lowland moist forest landscape in Panama and analyze these data in a Bayesian framework similar to capture–recapture analysis. We independently quantify probabilities of adult tree recruitment and detection and show that adult recruitment is negatively density dependent. The annualized probability of adult recruitment was 3.03% ⋅ year⁻¹. Despite the detection of negative density dependence in adult recruitment, it was insufficient to stabilize the adult population of H. guayacan, which increased significantly in size over the decade of observation.

Interspecific variation in conspecific negative density dependence can make species less likely to coexist

Conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD) is thought to promote plant species diversity. Theoretical studies showing the importance of CNDD often assumed that all species are equally susceptible to CNDD; however, recent empirical studies have shown species can differ greatly in their susceptibility to CNDD. Using a theoretical model, we show that interspecific variation in CNDD can dramatically alter its impact on diversity. First, if the most common species are the least regulated by CNDD, then the stabilising benefit of CNDD is reduced. Second, when seed dispersal is limited, seedlings that are susceptible to CNDD are at a competitive disadvantage. When parameterised with estimates of CNDD from a tropical tree community in Panama, our model suggests that the competitive inequalities caused by interspecific variation in CNDD may undermine many species' ability to persist. Thus, our model suggests that variable CNDD may make communities less stable, rather than more stable.