A flexible method for estimating tip diversification rates across a range of speciation and extinction scenarios

A macroevolutionary role for chromosomal fusion and fission in Erebia butterflies

The impact of large-scale chromosomal rearrangements, such as fusions and fissions, on speciation is a long-standing conundrum. We assessed whether bursts of change in chromosome numbers resulting from chromosomal fusion or fission are related to increased speciation rates in Erebia, one of the most species-rich and karyotypically variable butterfly groups. We established a genome-based phylogeny and used state-dependent birth-death models to infer trajectories of karyotype evolution. We demonstrated that rates of anagenetic chromosomal changes (i.e., along phylogenetic branches) exceed cladogenetic changes (i.e., at speciation events), but, when cladogenetic changes occur, they are mostly associated with chromosomal fissions rather than fusions. We found that the relative importance of fusion and fission differs among Erebia clades of different ages and that especially in younger, more karyotypically diverse clades, speciation is more frequently associated with cladogenetic chromosomal changes. Overall, our results imply that chromosomal fusions and fissions have contrasting macroevolutionary roles and that large-scale chromosomal rearrangements are associated with bursts of species diversification.

Diversifying in the mountains: spatiotemporal diversification of frogs in the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot

Mountain ranges are hotspots of biodiversity. However, the mechanisms that generate biodiversity patterns in different mountainous regions and taxa are not apparent. The Western Ghats (WG) escarpment in India is a globally recognized biodiversity hotspot with high species richness and endemism. Most studies have either invoked paleoclimatic conditions or climatic stability in the southern WG refugium to explain this high diversity and endemism. However, the factors driving macroevolutionary change remain unexplored for most taxa. Here, we generated the most comprehensive dated phylogeny to date for ranoid frogs in the WG and tested the role of paleoclimatic events or climatic stability in influencing frog diversification. We found that the diversity of different ranoid frog clades in the WG either accumulated at a constant rate through time or underwent a decrease in speciation rates around 3-2.5 Ma during the Pleistocene glaciation cycles. We also find no significant difference in diversification rate estimates across elevational gradients and the three broad biogeographic zones in the WG (northern, central, and southern WG). However, time-for-speciation explained regional species richness within clades, wherein older lineages have more extant species diversity. Overall, we find that global paleoclimatic events have had little impact on WG frog diversification throughout most of its early history until the Quaternary and that the WG may have been climatically stable allowing lineages to accumulate and persist over evolutionary time.

The macroevolutionary singularity of snakes

Snakes and lizards (Squamata) represent a third of terrestrial vertebrates and exhibit spectacular innovations in locomotion, feeding, and sensory processing. However, the evolutionary drivers of this radiation remain poorly known. We infer potential causes and ultimate consequences of squamate macroevolution by combining individual-based natural history observations (>60,000 animals) with a comprehensive time-calibrated phylogeny that we anchored with genomic data (5400 loci) from 1018 species. Due to shifts in the dynamics of speciation and phenotypic evolution, snakes have transformed the trophic structure of animal communities through the recurrent origin and diversification of specialized predatory strategies. Squamate biodiversity reflects a legacy of singular events that occurred during the early history of snakes and reveals the impact of historical contingency on vertebrate biodiversity.

Genomes, fossils, and the concurrent rise of modern birds and flowering plants in the Late Cretaceous

The phylogeny and divergence timing of the Neoavian radiation remain controversial despite recent progress. We analyzed the genomes of 124 species across all Neoavian orders, using data from 25,460 loci spanning four DNA classes, including 5,756 coding sequences, 12,449 conserved nonexonic elements, 4,871 introns, and 2,384 intergenic segments. We conducted a comprehensive sensitivity analysis to account for the heterogeneity across different DNA classes, leading to an optimal tree of Neoaves with high resolution. This phylogeny features a novel Neoavian dichotomy comprising two monophyletic clades: a previously recognized Telluraves (land birds) and a newly circumscribed Aquaterraves (waterbirds and relatives). Molecular dating analyses with 20 fossil calibrations indicate that the diversification of modern birds began in the Late Cretaceous and underwent a constant and steady radiation across the KPg boundary, concurrent with the rise of angiosperms as well as other major Cenozoic animal groups including placental and multituberculate mammals. The KPg catastrophe had a limited impact on avian evolution compared to the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, which triggered a rapid diversification of seabirds. Our findings suggest that the evolution of modern birds followed a slow process of gradualism rather than a rapid process of punctuated equilibrium, with limited interruption by the KPg catastrophe. This study places bird evolution into a new context within vertebrates, with ramifications for the evolution of the Earth's biota.

The evolution of ectomycorrhizal symbiosis in the Late Cretaceous is a key driver of explosive diversification in Agaricomycetes

Ectomycorrhizal (EcM) symbiosis, a ubiquitous plant-fungus interaction in forests, evolved in parallel in fungi. Why the evolution of EcM fungi did not necessarily increase ecological opportunities for explosive diversification remains unclear. This study aimed to reveal the driving mechanism of the evolutionary diversification in the fungal class Agaricomycetes, specifically by testing whether the evolution of EcM symbiosis in the Late Cretaceous increased ecological opportunities. The historical character transitions of trophic state and fruitbody form were estimated based on phylogenies inferred from fragments of 89 single-copy genes. Moreover, five analyses were used to estimate the net diversification rates (speciation rate minus extinction rate). The results indicate that the unidirectional evolution of EcM symbiosis occurred 27 times, ranging in date from the Early Triassic to the Early Paleogene. The increased diversification rates appeared to occur intensively at the stem of EcM fungal clades diverging in the Late Cretaceous, coinciding with the rapid diversification of EcM angiosperms. By contrast, the evolution of fruitbody form was not strongly linked with the increased diversification rates. These findings suggest that the evolution of EcM symbiosis in the Late Cretaceous, supposedly with coevolving EcM angiosperms, was the key drive of the explosive diversification in Agaricomycetes.

Deep Learning from Phylogenies for Diversification Analyses

Birth-death (BD) models are widely used in combination with species phylogenies to study past diversification dynamics. Current inference approaches typically rely on likelihood-based methods. These methods are not generalizable, as a new likelihood formula must be established each time a new model is proposed; for some models, such a formula is not even tractable. Deep learning can bring solutions in such situations, as deep neural networks can be trained to learn the relation between simulations and parameter values as a regression problem. In this paper, we adapt a recently developed deep learning method from pathogen phylodynamics to the case of diversification inference, and we extend its applicability to the case of the inference of state-dependent diversification models from phylogenies associated with trait data. We demonstrate the accuracy and time efficiency of the approach for the time-constant homogeneous BD model and the Binary-State Speciation and Extinction model. Finally, we illustrate the use of the proposed inference machinery by reanalyzing a phylogeny of primates and their associated ecological role as seed dispersers. Deep learning inference provides at least the same accuracy as likelihood-based inference while being faster by several orders of magnitude, offering a promising new inference approach for the deployment of future models in the field.

The macroevolutionary dynamics of activity pattern in mammals: Primates in context

Activity pattern has played a prominent role in discussions of primate evolutionary history. Most primates are either diurnal or nocturnal, but a small number are active both diurnally and nocturnally. This pattern-cathemerality-also occurs at low frequency across mammals. Using a large sample of mammalian species, this study evaluates two macroevolutionary hypotheses proposed to explain why cathemerality is less common than diurnality and nocturnality: 1) that cathemeral lineages have higher extinction probabilities (differential diversification) and 2) that transitions out of cathemerality are more frequent, making it a less persistent state (differential state persistence). Rates of speciation, extinction, and transition between character states were estimated using hidden-rates models applied to a phylogenetic tree containing 3013 mammals classified by activity pattern. The models failed to detect consistent differences in diversification dynamics among activity patterns, but there is strong support for differential state persistence. Transition rates out of cathemerality tend to be much higher than transition rates out of nocturnality. Transition rates out of diurnality are similar to those for cathemerality in most clades, with two important exceptions: diurnality is unusually persistent in anthropoid primates and sciurid rodents. These two groups combine very low rates of transition out of diurnality with high speciation rates. This combination has no parallels among cathemeral lineages, explaining why diurnality has become more common than cathemerality in mammals. Similarly, the combination of rates found in anthropoids is sufficient to explain the low relative frequency of cathemerality in primates, making it unnecessary to appeal to high extinction probabilities in cathemeral lineages in this clade. These findings support the hypothesis that the distribution of activity patterns across mammals has been influenced primarily by differential state persistence, whereas the effect of differential diversification appears to have been more idiosyncratic.

Accelerated body size evolution in upland environments is correlated with recent speciation in South American freshwater fishes

Speciation rates vary greatly among taxa and regions and are shaped by both biotic and abiotic factors. However, the relative importance and interactions of these factors are not well understood. Here we investigate the potential drivers of speciation rates in South American freshwater fishes, the most diverse continental vertebrate fauna, by examining the roles of multiple biotic and abiotic factors. We integrate a dataset on species geographic distribution, phylogenetic, morphological, climatic, and habitat data. We find that Late Neogene-Quaternary speciation events are strongly associated with body-size evolution, particularly in lineages with small body sizes that inhabit higher elevations near the continental periphery. Conversely, the effects of temperature, area, and diversity-dependence, often thought to facilitate speciation, are negligible. By evaluating multiple factors simultaneously, we demonstrate that habitat characteristics associated with elevation, as well as body size evolution, correlate with rapid speciation in South American freshwater fishes. Our study emphasizes the importance of integrative approaches that consider the interplay of biotic and abiotic factors in generating macroecological patterns of species diversity.

Trait-based species richness: ecology and macroevolution

Understanding the origins of species richness patterns is a fundamental goal in ecology and evolutionary biology. Much research has focused on explaining two kinds of species richness patterns: (i) spatial species richness patterns (e.g. the latitudinal diversity gradient), and (ii) clade-based species richness patterns (e.g. the predominance of angiosperm species among plants). Here, I highlight a third kind of richness pattern: trait-based species richness (e.g. the number of species with each state of a character, such as diet or body size). Trait-based richness patterns are relevant to many topics in ecology and evolution, from ecosystem function to adaptive radiation to the paradox of sex. Although many studies have described particular trait-based richness patterns, the origins of these patterns remain far less understood, and trait-based richness has not been emphasised as a general category of richness patterns. Here, I describe a conceptual framework for how trait-based richness patterns arise compared to other richness patterns. A systematic review suggests that trait-based richness patterns are most often explained by when each state originates within a group (i.e. older states generally have higher richness), and not by differences in transition rates among states or faster diversification of species with certain states. This latter result contrasts with the widespread emphasis on diversification rates in species-richness research. I show that many recent studies of spatial richness patterns are actually studies of trait-based richness patterns, potentially confounding the causes of these patterns. Finally, I describe a plethora of unanswered questions related to trait-based richness patterns.

The build-up of the present-day tropical diversity of tetrapods

The extraordinary number of species in the tropics when compared to the extra-tropics is probably the most prominent and consistent pattern in biogeography, suggesting that overarching processes regulate this diversity gradient. A major challenge to characterizing which processes are at play relies on quantifying how the frequency and determinants of tropical and extra-tropical speciation, extinction, and dispersal events shaped evolutionary radiations. We address this question by developing and applying spatiotemporal phylogenetic and paleontological models of diversification for tetrapod species incorporating paleoenvironmental variation. Our phylogenetic model results show that area, energy, or species richness did not uniformly affect speciation rates across tetrapods and dispute expectations of a latitudinal gradient in speciation rates. Instead, both neontological and fossil evidence coincide in underscoring the role of extra-tropical extinctions and the outflow of tropical species in shaping biodiversity. These diversification dynamics accurately predict present-day levels of species richness across latitudes and uncover temporal idiosyncrasies but spatial generality across the major tetrapod radiations.

Key innovations and the diversification of Hymenoptera

The order Hymenoptera (wasps, ants, sawflies, and bees) represents one of the most diverse animal lineages, but whether specific key innovations have contributed to its diversification is still unknown. We assembled the largest time-calibrated phylogeny of Hymenoptera to date and investigated the origin and possible correlation of particular morphological and behavioral innovations with diversification in the order: the wasp waist of Apocrita; the stinger of Aculeata; parasitoidism, a specialized form of carnivory; and secondary phytophagy, a reversal to plant-feeding. Here, we show that parasitoidism has been the dominant strategy since the Late Triassic in Hymenoptera, but was not an immediate driver of diversification. Instead, transitions to secondary phytophagy (from parasitoidism) had a major influence on diversification rate in Hymenoptera. Support for the stinger and the wasp waist as key innovations remains equivocal, but these traits may have laid the anatomical and behavioral foundations for adaptations more directly associated with diversification.

Cross-disciplinary information for understanding macroevolution

Many different macroevolutionary models can produce the same observations. Despite efforts in building more complex and realistic models, it may still be difficult to distinguish the processes that have generated the biodiversity we observe. In this opinion we argue that we can make new progress by reaching out across disciplines, relying on independent data and theory to constrain macroevolutionary inference. Using mainly paleontological insights and data, we illustrate how we can eliminate less plausible or implausible models, and/or parts of parameter space, while applying comparative phylogenetic approaches. We emphasize that such cross-disciplinary insights and data can be drawn between many other disciplines relevant to macroevolution. We urge cross-disciplinary training, and collaboration using common-use databases as a platform for increasing our understanding.

Variation in macroevolutionary dynamics among extant primates

Objectives

This study examines how speciation and extinction rates vary across primates, with a focus on the recent macroevolutionary dynamics that have shaped extant primate biodiversity.

Materials and methods

Lineage‐specific macroevolutionary rates were estimated for each tip in a tree containing 307 species using a hidden‐state likelihood model. Differences in tip rates among major clades were evaluated using phylogenetic ANOVA. Differences among diurnal, nocturnal, and cathemeral lineages were also evaluated, based on previous work indicating that activity pattern influences primate diversification.

Results

Rate variation in extant primates is low within clades and high between clades. As in previous studies, cercopithecoids stand out in having high net diversification rates, driven by high speciation rates and very low extinction rates. Platyrrhines combine high speciation and high extinction rates, giving them high rates of lineage turnover. Strepsirrhines and tarsiids have low rates of speciation, extinction, turnover, and net diversification. Hominoids are intermediate between platyrrhines and the strepsirrhine‐tarsiid group, and there is evidence for differentiation between hominids and hylobatids. Diurnal lineages have significantly higher speciation rates than nocturnal lineages.

Conclusions

Recent anthropoid macroevolution has been characterized by marked variation in diversification dynamics among clades. Strepsirrhines and tarsiids are more uniform, despite divergent evolutionary and biogeographic histories. Higher speciation rates in diurnal lineages may be driven by greater ecological opportunity or reliance on visual signals for mate recognition. However, the differences among anthropoids indicate that factors other than activity pattern (e.g., clade competition, historical contingency) have had a more influential role in shaping recent primate diversification.

Fossils Do Not Substantially Improve, and May Even Harm, Estimates of Diversification Rate Heterogeneity

The fossilized birth-death (FBD) model is a naturally appealing way of directly incorporating fossil information when estimating diversification rates. However, an important yet often overlooked property of the original FBD derivation is that it distinguishes between two types of sampled lineages. Here we first discuss and demonstrate the impact of severely undersampling, and even not including fossils that represent samples of lineages that also had sampled descendants. We then explore the benefits of including fossils, generally, by implementing and then testing two-types of FBD models, including one that converts a fossil set into stratigraphic ranges, in more complex likelihood-based models that assume multiple rate classes across the tree. Under various simulation scenarios, including a scenario that exists far outside the set of models we evaluated, including fossils rarely outperforms analyses that exclude them altogether. At best, the inclusion of fossils improves precision but does not influence bias. Similarly, we found that converting the fossil set to stratigraphic ranges, which is one way to remedy the effects of undercounting the number of k-type fossils, results in turnover rates and extinction fraction estimates that are generally underestimated. While fossils remain essential for understanding diversification through time, in the specific case of understanding diversification given an existing, largely modern tree, they are not especially beneficial.