It's about time: A synthesis of changing phenology in the Gulf of Maine ecosystem

Long-term data reveal widespread phenological change across major US estuarine food webs

Climate change is shifting the timing of organismal life-history events. Although consequential food-web mismatches can emerge if predators and prey shift at different rates, research on phenological shifts has traditionally focused on single trophic levels. Here, we analysed >2000 long-term, monthly time series of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish abundance or biomass for the San Francisco, Chesapeake, and Massachusetts bays. Phenological shifts occurred in over a quarter (28%) of the combined series across all three estuaries. However, phenological trends for many taxa (ca. 29-68%) did not track the changing environment. While planktonic taxa largely advanced their phenologies, fishes displayed broad patterns of both advanced and delayed timing of peak abundance. Overall, these divergent patterns illustrate the potential for climate-driven trophic mismatches. Our results suggest that even if signatures of global climate change differ locally, widespread phenological change has the potential to disrupt estuarine food webs.

Lectin binding to pectoral fin of neonate little skates reared under ambient and projected-end-of-century temperature regimes

The glycosylation of macromolecules can vary both among tissue structural components and by adverse conditions, potentially providing an alternative marker of stress in organisms. Lectins are proteins that bind carbohydrate moieties and lectin histochemistry is a common method to visualize microstructures in biological specimens and diagnose pathophysiological states in human tissues known to alter glycan profiles. However, this technique is not commonly used to assess broad-spectrum changes in cellular glycosylation in response to environmental stressors. In addition, the binding of various lectins has not been studied in elasmobranchs (sharks, skates, and rays). We surveyed the binding tissue structure specificity of 14 plant-derived lectins, using both immunoblotting and immunofluorescence, in the pectoral fins of neonate little skates (Leucoraja erinacea). Skates were reared under present-day or elevated (+5°C above ambient) temperature regimes and evaluated for lectin binding as an indicator of changing cellular glycosylation and tissue structure. Lectin labeling was highly tissue and microstructure specific. Dot blots revealed no significant changes in lectin binding between temperature regimes. In addition, lectins only detected in the elevated temperature treatment were Canavalia ensiformis lectin (Concanavalin A) in spindle cells of muscle and Ricinus communis agglutinin in muscle capillaries. These results provide a reference for lectin labeling in elasmobranch tissue that may aid future investigations.

Local reflects global: Life stage-dependent changes in the phenology of coastal habitat use by North Sea herring

Climate warming is affecting the suitability and utilization of coastal habitats by marine fishes around the world. Phenological changes are an important indicator of population responses to climate-induced changes but remain difficult to detect in marine fish populations. The design of large-scale monitoring surveys does not allow fine-grained temporal inference of population responses, while the responses of ecologically and economically important species groups such as small pelagic fish are particularly sensitive to temporal resolution. Here, we use the longest, highest resolution time series of species composition and abundance of marine fishes in northern Europe to detect possible phenological shifts in the small pelagic North Sea herring. We detect a clear forward temporal shift in the phenology of nearshore habitat use by small juvenile North Sea herring. This forward shift might be linked to changes in water temperatures in the North Sea. We next assessed the robustness of the effects we found with respect to monitoring design. We find that reducing the temporal resolution of our data to reflect the resolution typical of larger surveys makes it difficult to detect phenological shifts and drastically reduces the effect sizes of environmental covariates such as seawater temperature. Our study therefore shows how local, long-term, high-resolution time series of fish catches are essential to understand the general phenological responses of marine fishes to climate warming and to define ecological indicators of system-level changes.

Merging trait-based ecology and regime shift theory to anticipate community responses to warming

Anthropogenic warming is altering species abundance, distribution, physiology, and more. How changes observed at the species level alter emergent community properties is an active and urgent area of research. Trait-based ecology and regime shift theory provide complementary ways to understand climate change impacts on communities, but these two bodies of work are only rarely integrated. Lack of integration handicaps our ability to understand community responses to warming, at a time when such understanding is critical. Therefore, we advocate for merging trait-based ecology with regime shift theory. We propose a general set of principles to guide this merger and apply these principles to research on marine communities in the rapidly warming North Atlantic. In our example, combining trait distribution and regime shift analyses at the community level yields greater insight than either alone. Looking forward, we identify a clear need for expanding quantitative approaches to collecting and merging trait-based and resilience metrics in order to advance our understanding of climate-driven community change.

Change in body size in a rapidly warming marine ecosystem: Consequences of tropicalization

Climate change is profoundly affecting the physical environment and biota of the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf ecosystem. To understand adaptations to climate change, in particular warming temperatures, we used bottom trawl survey data to describe the size of individual fish and macroinvertebrates. Using species distribution models to estimate abundance and biomass, we determined body size in weight for all modeled species. We demonstrate a tendency for increased abundance and biomass and a concomitant decline in body size over time. An analysis of length frequency data supports this assertion. There was no trend in the combined anthropogenic removals from the ecosystem, i.e. catches, suggesting a limited role of fisheries in influencing these changes. The changes in the fish and macroinvertebrate communities are consistent with the hypothesis of a tropicalization of this ecosystem, where the ecosystem experiences a change in diversity, abundance, biomass, and the size of individuals consistent with lower latitudes. The changes in how productivity is expressed in the ecosystem factors into how human populations relate to it; in a practical sense, change in body size will likely influence the strategies and efficiencies of harvest procedures and the industries built to support them.

Impacts of Increasing Temperature on the Metabolism of Confined and Freely Moving American Lobsters (Homarus americanus)

AbstractGulf of Maine waters are warming rapidly, prompting a reevaluation of how commercially important marine species will respond. The goal of this study was to determine the respiratory, cardiac, and locomotory responses of American lobsters (Homarus americanus) to increasing water temperatures and to compare these to similar published studies. First, we measured the heart rate and ventilation rate of 10 lobsters that were confined in a temperature-controlled chamber while exposing them to gradually warming temperatures from 16 to 30 °C over 7 h. Both heart rate and ventilation rate increased along with the temperature up to a break point, with the mean heart rate peaking at 26.5 ± 1.6 °C, while the ventilation rate peaked at 27.4 ± 0.8 °C. In a subset of these trials (n = 5), oxygen consumption was also monitored and peaked at similar temperatures. In a second experiment, both the heart rate and activity of five lobsters were monitored with custom-built dataloggers while they moved freely in a large tank, while the temperature was increased from 18 to 29 °C over 24 h. The heart rate of these lobsters also increased with temperature, but their initial heart rates were lower than we recorded from confined lobsters. Finally, we confirmed that the low heart rates of the freely moving lobsters were due to the methods used by comparing heart rate data from eight lobsters collected using both methods with each individual animal. Thus, while our overall results are consistent with data from previous studies, they also show that the methods used in studies of physiological and behavioral responses to warming temperatures can impact the results obtained.

Vulnerability to climate change of United States marine mammal stocks in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean

Climate change and climate variability are affecting marine mammal species and these impacts are projected to continue in the coming decades. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species using currently available information. We conducted a trait-based climate vulnerability assessment using expert elicitation for 108 marine mammal stocks and stock groups in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. Our approach combined the exposure (projected change in environmental conditions) and sensitivity (ability to tolerate and adapt to changing conditions) of marine mammal stocks to estimate vulnerability to climate change, and categorize stocks with a vulnerability index. The climate vulnerability score was very high for 44% (n = 47) of these stocks, high for 29% (n = 31), moderate for 20% (n = 22), and low for 7% (n = 8). The majority of stocks (n = 78; 72%) scored very high exposure, whereas 24% (n = 26) scored high, and 4% (n = 4) scored moderate. The sensitivity score was very high for 33% (n = 36) of these stocks, high for 18% (n = 19), moderate for 34% (n = 37), and low for 15% (n = 16). Vulnerability results were summarized for stocks in five taxonomic groups: pinnipeds (n = 4; 25% high, 75% moderate), mysticetes (n = 7; 29% very high, 57% high, 14% moderate), ziphiids (n = 8; 13% very high, 50% high, 38% moderate), delphinids (n = 84; 52% very high, 23% high, 15% moderate, 10% low), and other odontocetes (n = 5; 60% high, 40% moderate). Factors including temperature, ocean pH, and dissolved oxygen were the primary drivers of high climate exposure, with effects mediated through prey and habitat parameters. We quantified sources of uncertainty by bootstrapping vulnerability scores, conducting leave-one-out analyses of individual attributes and individual scorers, and through scoring data quality for each attribute. These results provide information for researchers, managers, and the public on marine mammal responses to climate change to enhance the development of more effective marine mammal management, restoration, and conservation activities that address current and future environmental variation and biological responses due to climate change.

Drivers of Odonata flight timing revealed by natural history collection data

Global change may cause widespread phenological shifts. But knowledge of the extent and generality of these shifts is limited by the availability of phenological records with sufficiently large spatiotemporal extents. Using North American odonates (damselflies and dragonflies) as a model system, we show how a combination of natural history museum and community science collections, beginning in 1901 and extending through 2020, can be leveraged to better understand phenology. We begin with an analysis of odonate functional traits. Principal coordinate analysis is used to place odonate genera within a three-dimensional trait ordination. From this, we identify seven distinct functional groups and select a single odonate genus to represent each group. Next, we pair the odonate records with a list of environmental covariates, including air temperature and degree days, photoperiod, precipitation, latitude and elevation. An iterative subsampling process is then used to mitigate spatiotemporal sampling bias within the odonate dataset. Finally, we use path analysis to quantify the direct effects of degree days, photoperiod and precipitation on odonate emergence timing, while accounting for indirect effects of latitude, elevation and year. Path models showed that degree days, photoperiod and precipitation each have a significant influence on odonate emergence timing, but degree days have the largest overall effect. Notably, the effect that each covariate has on emergence timing varied among functional groups, with positive relationships observed for some group representatives and negative relationships observed for others. For instance, Calopteryx sp. emerged earlier as degree days increased, while Sympetrum sp. emerged later. Previous studies have linked odonate emergence timing to temperature, photoperiod or precipitation. By using natural history museum and community science data to simultaneously examine all three influences, we show that systems-level understanding of odonate phenology may now be possible.

Decadal migration phenology of a long-lived Arctic icon keeps pace with climate change

Animals migrate in response to seasonal environments, to reproduce, to benefit from resource pulses, or to avoid fluctuating hazards. Although climate change is predicted to modify migration, only a few studies to date have demonstrated phenological shifts in marine mammals. In the Arctic, marine mammals are considered among the most sensitive to ongoing climate change due to their narrow habitat preferences and long life spans. Longevity may prove an obstacle for species to evolutionarily respond. For species that exhibit high site fidelity and strong associations with migration routes, adjusting the timing of migration is one of the few recourses available to respond to a changing climate. Here, we demonstrate evidence of significant delays in the timing of narwhal autumn migrations with satellite tracking data spanning 21 y from the Canadian Arctic. Measures of migration phenology varied annually and were explained by sex and climate drivers associated with ice conditions, suggesting that narwhals are adopting strategic migration tactics. Male narwhals were found to lead the migration out of the summering areas, while females, potentially with dependent young, departed later. Narwhals are remaining longer in their summer areas at a rate of 10 d per decade, a similar rate to that observed for climate-driven sea ice loss across the region. The consequences of altered space use and timing have yet to be evaluated but will expose individuals to increasing natural changes and anthropogenic activities on the summering areas.

Marine Pelagic Ecosystem Responses to Climate Variability and Change

The marine coastal region makes up just 10% of the total area of the global ocean but contributes nearly 20% of its total primary production and over 80% of fisheries landings. Unicellular phytoplankton dominate primary production. Climate variability has had impacts on various marine ecosystems, but most sites are just approaching the age at which ecological responses to longer term, unidirectional climate trends might be distinguished. All five marine pelagic sites in the US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network are experiencing warming trends in surface air temperature. The marine physical system is responding at all sites with increasing mixed layer temperatures and decreasing depth and with declining sea ice cover at the two polar sites. Their ecological responses are more varied. Some sites show multiple population or ecosystem changes, whereas, at others, changes have not been detected, either because more time is needed or because they are not being measured.

Decadal-scale phenology and seasonal climate drivers of migratory baleen whales in a rapidly warming marine ecosystem

Species' response to rapid climate change can be measured through shifts in timing of recurring biological events, known as phenology. The Gulf of Maine is one of the most rapidly warming regions of the ocean, and thus an ideal system to study phenological and biological responses to climate change. A better understanding of climate-induced changes in phenology is needed to effectively and adaptively manage human-wildlife conflicts. Using data from a 20+ year marine mammal observation program, we tested the hypothesis that the phenology of large whale habitat use in Cape Cod Bay has changed and is related to regional-scale shifts in the thermal onset of spring. We used a multi-season occupancy model to measure phenological shifts and evaluate trends in the date of peak habitat use for North Atlantic right (Eubalaena glacialis), humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae), and fin (Balaenoptera physalus) whales. The date of peak habitat use shifted by +18.1 days (0.90 days/year) for right whales and +19.1 days (0.96 days/year) for humpback whales. We then evaluated interannual variability in peak habitat use relative to thermal spring transition dates (STD), and hypothesized that right whales, as planktivorous specialist feeders, would exhibit a stronger response to thermal phenology than fin and humpback whales, which are more generalist piscivorous feeders. There was a significant negative effect of western region STD on right whale habitat use, and a significant positive effect of eastern region STD on fin whale habitat use indicating differential responses to spatial seasonal conditions. Protections for threatened and endangered whales have been designed to align with expected phenology of habitat use. Our results show that whales are becoming mismatched with static seasonal management measures through shifts in their timing of habitat use, and they suggest that effective management strategies may need to alter protections as species adapt to climate change.

Repatriation of a historical North Atlantic right whale habitat during an era of rapid climate change

Climate change is affecting species distributions in space and time. In the Gulf of Maine, one of the fastest-warming marine regions on Earth, rapid warming has caused prey-related changes in the distribution of the critically endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). Concurrently, right whales have returned to historically important areas such as southern New England shelf waters, an area known to have been a whaling ground. We compared aerial survey data from two time periods (2013-2015; 2017-2019) to assess trends in right whale abundance in the region during winter and spring. Using distance sampling techniques, we chose a hazard rate key function to model right whale detections and used seasonal encounter rates to estimate abundance. The mean log of abundance increased by 1.40 annually between 2013 and 2019 (p = 0.004), and the mean number of individuals detected per year increased by 2.23 annually between 2013 and 2019 (R2 = 0.69, p = 0.001). These results demonstrate the current importance of this habitat and suggest that management options must continually evolve as right whales repatriate historical habitats and potentially expand to new habitats as they adapt to climate change.

An assessment of marine, estuarine, and riverine habitat vulnerability to climate change in the Northeast U.S

Climate change is impacting the function and distribution of habitats used by marine, coastal, and diadromous species. These impacts often exacerbate the anthropogenic stressors that habitats face, particularly in the coastal environment. We conducted a climate vulnerability assessment of 52 marine, estuarine, and riverine habitats in the Northeast U.S. to develop an ecosystem-scale understanding of the impact of climate change on these habitats. The trait-based assessment considers the overall vulnerability of a habitat to climate change to be a function of two main components, sensitivity and exposure, and relies on a process of expert elicitation. The climate vulnerability ranks ranged from low to very high, with living habitats identified as the most vulnerable. Over half of the habitats examined in this study are expected to be impacted negatively by climate change, while four habitats are expected to have positive effects. Coastal habitats were also identified as highly vulnerable, in part due to the influence of non-climate anthropogenic stressors. The results of this assessment provide regional managers and scientists with a tool to inform habitat conservation, restoration, and research priorities, fisheries and protected species management, and coastal and ocean planning.

Environmental and life-history factors influence inter-colony multidimensional niche metrics of a breeding Arctic marine bird

Human industrialization has resulted in rapid climate change, leading to wide-scale environmental shifts. These shifts can modify food web dynamics by altering the abundance and distribution of primary producers (ice algae and phytoplankton), as well as animals at higher trophic levels. Methylmercury (MeHg) is a neuro-endocrine disrupting compound which biomagnifies in animals as a function of prey choice, and as such bioavailability is affected by altered food web dynamics and adds an important risk-based dimension in studies of foraging ecology. Multidimensional niche dynamics (MDND; δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N, THg; total mercury) were determined among breeding common eider (Somateria mollissima) ducks sampled from 10 breeding colonies distributed across the circumpolar Arctic and subarctic. Results showed high variation in MDND among colonies as indicated by niche size and ranges in δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N and THg values in relation to spatial differences in primary production inferred from sea-ice presence and colony migratory status. Colonies with higher sea-ice cover during the pre-incubation period had higher median colony THg, δ¹⁵N, and δ¹³C. Individuals at migratory colonies had relatively higher THg and δ¹⁵N, and lower δ¹³C, suggesting a higher trophic position and a greater reliance on phytoplankton-based prey. It was concluded that variation in MDND exists among eider colonies which influenced individual blood THg concentrations. Further exploration of spatial ecotoxicology and MDND at each individual site is important to examine the relationships between anthropogenic activities, foraging behaviour, and the related risks of contaminant exposure at even low, sub-lethal concentrations that may contribute to deleterious effects on population stability over time. Overall, multidimensional niche analysis that incorporates multiple isotopic and contaminant metrics could help identify those populations at risk to rapidly altered food web dynamics.

Northern shrimp Pandalus borealis population collapse linked to climate-driven shifts in predator distribution

The northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis Krøyer) population in the Gulf of Maine collapsed during an extreme heatwave that occurred across the Northwest Atlantic Ocean in 2012. Northern shrimp is a boreal species, and reaches its southern limit in the Gulf of Maine. Here we investigate proximate causes for the population collapse using data from fishery-independent surveys, environmental monitoring, and the commercial fishery. We first examined spatial data to confirm that the decline in population estimates was not due to a major displacement of the population, and then tested hypotheses related to fishing mortality and shifts in predation pressure. Fishing mortality may have contributed but could not explain the magnitude of the decline or the disappearance of pre-exploitable size individuals. Stomach contents analysis and biomass trends revealed no new fish predators of shrimp. However, longfin squid (Doryteuthis pealeii Lesueur) was unique among all species in showing time-series biomass peaks during spring, summer and fall of 2012, and spatial overlap with northern shrimp was unusually high in 2012. Longfin squid is a voracious and opportunistic predator that consumes crustaceans as well as fish. We hypothesize that the warmer temperatures of 2012 not only led to expansion of longfin squid distribution in Gulf of Maine, but had differential effects on migration phenology that further increased spatial overlap with northern shrimp. The weight of our evidence suggests that longfin squid predation was likely a significant factor in the collapse of northern shrimp in the Gulf of Maine.

Anthropogenic climate change impacts on copepod trait biogeography

Copepods are among the most abundant marine metazoans and form a key link between marine primary producers, higher trophic levels, and carbon sequestration pathways. Climate change is projected to change surface ocean temperature by up to 4°C in the North Atlantic with many associated changes including slowing of the overturning circulation, areas of regional freshening, and increased salinity and reductions in nutrients available in the euphotic zone over the next century. These changes will lead to a restructuring of phytoplankton and zooplankton communities with cascading effects throughout the food web. Here we employ observations of copepods, projected changes in ocean climate, and species distribution models to show how climate change may affect the distribution of copepod species in the North Atlantic. On average species move northeast at a rate of 14.1 km decade^-1 . Species turnover in copepod communities will range from 5% to 75% with the highest turnover rates concentrated in regions of pronounced temperature increase and decrease. The changes in species range vary according to copepod traits with the largest effects found to occur in the cooling, freshening area in the subpolar North Atlantic south of Greenland and in an area of significant warming along the Scotian shelf. Large diapausing copepods (>2.5 mm) which are higher in lipids and a crucial food source for whales, may have an advantage in the cooling waters due to their life-history strategy that facilitates their survival in the arctic environment. Carnivorous copepods show a basin wide increase in species richness and show significant habitat area increases when their distribution moves poleward while herbivores see significant habitat area losses. The trait-specific effects highlight the complex consequences of climate change for the marine food web.

ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON 16 MAJOR US FISHERIES

Observational evidence shows marine species are shifting their geographic distribution in response to warming ocean temperatures. These shifts have implications for the US fisheries and seafood consumers. The analysis presented here employs a two-stage inverse demand model to estimate the consumer welfare impacts of projected increases or decreases in commercial landings for 16 US fisheries from 2021 to 2100, based on the predicted changes in thermally available habitat. The fisheries analyzed together account for 56% of the current US commercial fishing revenues. The analysis compares welfare impacts under two climate scenarios: a high emissions case that assumes limited efforts to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas and a low emissions case that assumes more stringent mitigation. The present value of consumer surplus impacts when discounted at 3% is a net loss of $2.1 billion (2018 US$) in the low emissions case and $4.2 billion in the high emissions scenario. Projected annual losses reach $278-901 million by 2100.

Using community photography to investigate phenology: A case study of coat molt in the mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) with missing data

Participatory approaches, such as community photography, can engage the public in questions of societal and scientific interest while helping advance understanding of ecological patterns and processes. We combined data extracted from community-sourced, spatially explicit photographs with research findings from 2018 fieldwork in the Yukon, Canada, to evaluate winter coat molt patterns and phenology in mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus), a cold-adapted, alpine mammal. Leveraging the community science portals iNaturalist and CitSci, in less than a year we amassed a database of almost seven hundred unique photographs spanning some 4,500 km between latitudes 37.6°N and 61.1°N from 0 to 4,333 m elevation. Using statistical methods accounting for incomplete data, a common issue in community science datasets, we identified the effects of intrinsic (sex and presence of offspring) and broad environmental (latitude and elevation) factors on molt onset and rate and compared our findings with published data. Shedding occurred over a 3-month period between 29 May and 6 September. Effects of sex and offspring on the timing of molt were consistent between the community-sourced and our Yukon data and with findings on wild mountain goats at a long-term research site in west-central Alberta, Canada. Males molted first, followed by females without offspring (4.4 days later in the coarse-grained, geographically wide community science sample; 29.2 days later in our fine-grained Yukon sample) and lastly females with new kids (6.2; 21.2 days later, respectively). Shedding was later at higher elevations and faster at northern latitudes. Our findings establish a basis for employing community photography to examine broad-scale questions about the timing of ecological events, as well as sex differences in response to possible climate drivers. In addition, community photography can help inspire public participation in environmental and outdoor activities specifically with reference to iconic wildlife.

Exploring movement patterns and changing distributions of baleen whales in the western North Atlantic using a decade of passive acoustic data

Six baleen whale species are found in the temperate western North Atlantic Ocean, with limited information existing on the distribution and movement patterns for most. There is mounting evidence of distributional shifts in many species, including marine mammals, likely because of climate-driven changes in ocean temperature and circulation. Previous acoustic studies examined the occurrence of minke (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) and North Atlantic right whales (NARW; Eubalaena glacialis). This study assesses the acoustic presence of humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae), sei (B. borealis), fin (B. physalus), and blue whales (B. musculus) over a decade, based on daily detections of their vocalizations. Data collected from 2004 to 2014 on 281 bottom-mounted recorders, totaling 35,033 days, were processed using automated detection software and screened for each species' presence. A published study on NARW acoustics revealed significant changes in occurrence patterns between the periods of 2004-2010 and 2011-2014; therefore, these same time periods were examined here. All four species were present from the Southeast United States to Greenland; humpback whales were also present in the Caribbean. All species occurred throughout all regions in the winter, suggesting that baleen whales are widely distributed during these months. Each of the species showed significant changes in acoustic occurrence after 2010. Similar to NARWs, sei whales had higher acoustic occurrence in mid-Atlantic regions after 2010. Fin, blue, and sei whales were more frequently detected in the northern latitudes of the study area after 2010. Despite this general northward shift, all four species were detected less on the Scotian Shelf area after 2010, matching documented shifts in prey availability in this region. A decade of acoustic observations have shown important distributional changes over the range of baleen whales, mirroring known climatic shifts and identifying new habitats that will require further protection from anthropogenic threats like fixed fishing gear, shipping, and noise pollution.

Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.