Multi-decadal range changes vs. thermal adaptation for north east Atlantic oceanic copepods in the face of climate change

Global Variation in Zooplankton Niche Divergence Across Ocean Basins

Modelling responses to climate change assumes zooplankton populations remain similar over time with little adaptation (niche conservatism). Oceanic barriers, genetic, phenotypic variation and species interactions in cosmopolitan species could drive niche divergence within species. We assess niche divergence among 223 globally distributed species across the seven main ocean basins. There were 357 diverged niches out of 828 ocean basin comparisons. The proportion of diverged niches varied both across and within phyla. Copepoda (156 of 223 species) were used to test for niche divergence between same-species populations across different environmental gradients. Global niche divergence was found to be more likely for species in colder temperatures and nearshore environments. Opposing temperature responses were found for four comparisons, which may relate to the different connectivity patterns between them. This study demonstrates adaptive potential across environmental-niche gradients, which must be considered when modelling population responses to climate change.

The biology and ecology of the basking shark: A review

Here we review the literature on the basking shark (Cetorhinus maximus, Gunnerus, 1765), well known as the second largest extant shark (and fish) species globally. Previous reviews were published by Kunzlik in 1988 and Sims in 2008, but in the last 15 years modern electronic and DNA sequencing technologies have resulted in considerable advances in our knowledge of the species' behaviour and ecology. Basking sharks are planktivores and under appropriate conditions spend prolonged periods at the ocean surface feeding on copepod prey that primarily make up their diet, the behaviour that gave rise to their common name. In general, they are migratory and move into higher latitude waters during the summer months, when loose surface-feeding aggregations may form at favoured sites, the best known of which at present occur at hotspots on the west coasts of Britain and Ireland. The species is found circumglobally in temperate waters, but they are also now known on occasion to migrate at depth between northern and southern hemispheres, as well as across oceans within the northern hemisphere. In the past basking shark were more abundant across much of their range, but, consequent on targeted fisheries and in some places intentional eradication, became everywhere scarce, with recent population recovery in the north-east Atlantic being the result of protective measures initiated in the 1990s. Despite their charismatic nature, some of their most fundamental biological processes including copulation, gestation and birth remain largely unknown, due to their migratory and often deep-water lifestyle. In contrast, the deployment of small-scale archival and satellite tags has revealed the details of both broadscale migratory movements and horizontal and vertical foraging behaviours. Recent genetic studies support evidence suggesting a degree of site fidelity in relation to seasonal feeding grounds, which likely explains why in the past local populations have collapsed following periods of intensive fishing. Other recent research using aerial drones and towed cameras has revealed within loose feeding aggregations elements of social behaviour that may have a courtship function as well as enhance feeding efficiency.

Climate change and n-3 LC-PUFA availability

Omega-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 LC-PUFA) are essential fatty acids for the growth, development and survival of virtually all organisms. There is increasing evidence that anthropogenic climate change has a direct and indirect impact on the availability of natural n-3 LC-PUFA. However, this information is fragmented and not well organized. Therefore, this article reviewed published data from laboratory experiments, field experiments and model simulations to reveal the impact of climate change on the global supply of natural n-3 LC-PUFA and how this will limit the availability of n-3 LC-PUFA in the future food web. In general, climate change can significantly reduce the availability of natural n-3 LC-PUFA in grazing food webs in the following ways: 1) decrease the total biomass of phytoplankton and shift the plankton community structure to a smaller size, which also reduce the biomass of animals in higher trophics; 2) reduce the n-3 LC-PUFA content and/or quality (n-3: n-6 ratio) of all marine organisms; 3) reduce the transfer efficiency of n-3 LC-PUFA in grazing food web. In addition, as an anthropogenic climate adaptation measure, this review also proposed some alternative sources of n-3 LC-PUFA and determined the direction of future research. The information in this article is very useful for providing a critical analysis of the impact of climate change on the supply of natural n-3 LC-PUFA. Such information will aid to establish climate adaptation or management measures, and determine the direction of future research.

Biogeochemical extremes and compound events in the ocean

The ocean is warming, losing oxygen and being acidified, primarily as a result of anthropogenic carbon emissions. With ocean warming, acidification and deoxygenation projected to increase for decades, extreme events, such as marine heatwaves, will intensify, occur more often, persist for longer periods of time and extend over larger regions. Nevertheless, our understanding of oceanic extreme events that are associated with warming, low oxygen concentrations or high acidity, as well as their impacts on marine ecosystems, remains limited. Compound events-that is, multiple extreme events that occur simultaneously or in close sequence-are of particular concern, as their individual effects may interact synergistically. Here we assess patterns and trends in open ocean extremes based on the existing literature as well as global and regional model simulations. Furthermore, we discuss the potential impacts of individual and compound extremes on marine organisms and ecosystems. We propose a pathway to improve the understanding of extreme events and the capacity of marine life to respond to them. The conditions exhibited by present extreme events may be a harbinger of what may become normal in the future. As a consequence, pursuing this research effort may also help us to better understand the responses of marine organisms and ecosystems to future climate change.

Predicting the growth of the amphibian chytrid fungus in varying temperature environments

Environmental temperature is a crucial abiotic factor that influences the success of ectothermic organisms, including hosts and pathogens in disease systems. One example is the amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), which has led to widespread amphibian population declines. Understanding its thermal ecology is essential to effectively predict outbreaks. Studies that examine the impact of temperature on hosts and pathogens often do so in controlled constant temperatures. Although varying temperature experiments are becoming increasingly common, it is unrealistic to test every temperature scenario. Thus, reliable methods that use constant temperature data to predict performance in varying temperatures are needed. In this study, we tested whether we could accurately predict Bd growth in three varying temperature regimes, using a Bayesian hierarchical model fit with constant temperature Bd growth data. We fit the Bayesian hierarchical model five times, each time changing the thermal performance curve (TPC) used to constrain the logistic growth rate to determine how TPCs influence the predictions. We then validated the model predictions using Bd growth data collected from the three tested varying temperature regimes. Although all TPCs overpredicted Bd growth in the varying temperature regimes, some functional forms performed better than others. Varying temperature impacts on disease systems are still not well understood and improving our understanding and methodologies to predict these effects could provide insights into disease systems and help conservation efforts.

Omega-3 nutraceuticals, climate change and threats to the environment: The cases of Antarctic krill and Calanus finmarchicus

The nutraceutical market for EPA (eicosapentaenoic acid) and DHA (docosahexaenoic acid) is promoting fishing for Euphasia superba (Antarctic krill) in the Southern Ocean and Calanus finmarchicus in Norwegian waters. This industry argues that these species are underexploited, but they are essential in their ecosystems, and climate change is altering their geographical distribution. In this perspective, we advocate the cessation of fishing for these species to produce nutraceuticals with EPA and DHA. We argue that this is possible because, contrary to what this industry promotes, the benefits of these fatty acids only seem significant to specific population groups, and not for the general population. Next, we explain that this is desirable because there is evidence that these fisheries may interact with the impact of climate change. Greener sources of EPA and DHA are already available on the market, and their reasonable use would ease pressure on the Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems.

Anthropogenic climate change impacts on copepod trait biogeography

Copepods are among the most abundant marine metazoans and form a key link between marine primary producers, higher trophic levels, and carbon sequestration pathways. Climate change is projected to change surface ocean temperature by up to 4°C in the North Atlantic with many associated changes including slowing of the overturning circulation, areas of regional freshening, and increased salinity and reductions in nutrients available in the euphotic zone over the next century. These changes will lead to a restructuring of phytoplankton and zooplankton communities with cascading effects throughout the food web. Here we employ observations of copepods, projected changes in ocean climate, and species distribution models to show how climate change may affect the distribution of copepod species in the North Atlantic. On average species move northeast at a rate of 14.1 km decade^-1 . Species turnover in copepod communities will range from 5% to 75% with the highest turnover rates concentrated in regions of pronounced temperature increase and decrease. The changes in species range vary according to copepod traits with the largest effects found to occur in the cooling, freshening area in the subpolar North Atlantic south of Greenland and in an area of significant warming along the Scotian shelf. Large diapausing copepods (>2.5 mm) which are higher in lipids and a crucial food source for whales, may have an advantage in the cooling waters due to their life-history strategy that facilitates their survival in the arctic environment. Carnivorous copepods show a basin wide increase in species richness and show significant habitat area increases when their distribution moves poleward while herbivores see significant habitat area losses. The trait-specific effects highlight the complex consequences of climate change for the marine food web.

Coordinated transformation of the gut microbiome and lipidome of bowhead whales provides novel insights into digestion

Whale digestion plays an integral role in many ocean ecosystems. By digesting enormous quantities of lipid-rich prey, whales support their energy intensive lifestyle, but also excrete nutrients important to ocean biogeochemical cycles. Nevertheless, whale digestion is poorly understood. Gastrointestinal microorganisms play a significant role in vertebrate digestion, but few studies have examined them in whales. To investigate digestion of lipids, and the potential contribution of microbes to lipid digestion in whales, we characterized lipid composition (lipidomes) and bacterial communities (microbiotas) in 126 digesta samples collected throughout the gastrointestinal tracts of 38 bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) harvested by Alaskan Eskimos. Lipidomes and microbiotas were strongly correlated throughout the gastrointestinal tract. Lipidomes and microbiotas were most variable in the small intestine and most similar in the large intestine, where microbiota richness was greatest. Our results suggest digestion of wax esters, the primary lipids in B. mysticetus prey representing more than 80% of total dietary lipids, occurred in the mid- to distal small intestine and was correlated with specific microorganisms. Because wax esters are difficult to digest by other marine vertebrates and constitute a large reservoir of carbon in the ocean, our results further elucidate the essential roles that whales and their gastrointestinal microbiotas play in the biogeochemical cycling of carbon and nutrients in high-latitude seas.

Understanding temperature effects on recruitment in the context of trophic mismatch

Understanding how temperature affects the relative phenology of predators and prey is necessary to predict climate change impacts and recruitment variation. This study examines the role of temperature in the phenology of a key forage fish, the lesser sandeel (Ammodytes marinus, Raitt) and its copepod prey. Using time-series of temperature, fish larval and copepod abundance from a Scottish coastal monitoring site, the study quantifies how thermal relationships affect the match between hatching in sandeel and egg production of its copepod prey. While sandeel hatch time was found to be related to the rate of seasonal temperature decline during the autumn and winter through effects on gonad and egg development, variation in copepod timing mostly responded to February temperature. These two temperature relationships defined the degree of trophic mismatch which in turn explained variation in local sandeel recruitment. Projected warming scenarios indicated an increasing probability of phenological decoupling and concomitant decline in sandeel recruitment. This study sheds light on the mechanisms by which future warming could increase the trophic mismatch between predator and prey, and demonstrates the need to identify the temperature-sensitive stages in predator-prey phenology for predicting future responses to climate change.

Impact of temperature and pyrene exposure on the functional response of males and females of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus

We know very little about the effects of two global stressors, elevated temperature and contaminants, on the grazing of marine copepods. To address this issue, we tested the hypotheses that the individual and combined effects of these two stressors may reduce grazing rates and may depend on food availability and gender. We exposed male and female Calanus finmarchicus copepods to pyrene at two temperatures (10 and 14 °C) and six food concentrations (25-800 μg C Rhodomonas baltica L^-1) and measured fecal pellet size, and grazing rate (GR) from pellet production. Males had smaller fecal pellets and lower GR than did females. Temperature and pyrene exposure had no effect on pellet size. Temperature alone had no effect on GR of males, but females had lower GR at elevated temperature. Pyrene-exposed males and females had lower GR only at the food concentrations of 200-800 μg C R. baltica L^-1 and those patterns were independent of temperature. Pyrene-induced reduction in GR was stronger in females than in males. The negative effects of both elevated temperature and pyrene may reduce the abundance and trophic success of C. finmarchicus in a warmer, more polluted future.

Ocean acidification ameliorates harmful effects of warming in primary consumer

Climate change-induced warming and ocean acidification are considered two imminent threats to marine biodiversity and current ecosystem structures. Here, we have for the first time examined an animal's response to a complete life cycle of exposure to co-occurring warming (+3°C) and ocean acidification (+1,600 μatm CO ₂), using the key subarctic planktonic copepod, Calanus finmarchicus, as a model species. The animals were generally negatively affected by warming, which significantly reduced the females' energy status and reproductive parameters (respectively, 95% and 69%-87% vs. control). Unexpectedly, simultaneous acidification partially offset the negative effect of warming in an antagonistic manner, significantly improving reproductive parameters and hatching success (233%-340% improvement vs. single warming exposure). The results provide proof of concept that ocean acidification may partially offset negative effects caused by warming in some species. Possible explanations and ecological implications for the observed antagonistic effect are discussed.

Spatial distributions of Southern Ocean mesozooplankton communities have been resilient to long-term surface warming

The biogeographic response of oceanic planktonic communities to climatic change has a large influence on the future stability of marine food webs and the functioning of global biogeochemical cycles. Temperature plays a pivotal role in determining the distribution of these communities and ocean warming has the potential to cause major distributional shifts, particularly in polar regions where the thermal envelope is narrow. We considered the impact of long-term ocean warming on the spatial distribution of Southern Ocean mesozooplankton communities through examining plankton abundance in relation to sea surface temperature between two distinct periods, separated by around 60 years. Analyses considered 16 dominant mesozooplankton taxa (in terms of biomass and abundance) in the southwest Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, from net samples and in situ temperature records collected during the Discovery Investigations (1926-1938) and contemporary campaigns (1996-2013). Sea surface temperature was found to have increased significantly by 0.74°C between the two eras. The corresponding sea surface temperature at which community abundance peaked was also significantly higher in contemporary times, by 0.98°C. Spatial projections indicated that the geographical location of community peak abundance had remained the same between the two eras despite the poleward advance of sea surface isotherms. If the community had remained within the same thermal envelope as in the 1920s-1930s, community peak abundance would be 500 km further south in the contemporary era. Studies in the northern hemisphere have found that dominant taxa, such as calanoid copepods, have conserved their thermal niches and tracked surface isotherms polewards. The fact that this has not occurred in the Southern Ocean suggests that other selective pressures, particularly food availability and the properties of underlying water masses, place greater constraints on spatial distributions in this region. It further demonstrates that this community is thermally resilient to present levels of sea surface warming.

Adaptation strategies to climate change in marine systems

The world's oceans are highly impacted by climate change and other human pressures, with significant implications for marine ecosystems and the livelihoods that they support. Adaptation for both natural and human systems is increasingly important as a coping strategy due to the rate and scale of ongoing and potential future change. Here, we conduct a review of literature concerning specific case studies of adaptation in marine systems, and discuss associated characteristics and influencing factors, including drivers, strategy, timeline, costs, and limitations. We found ample evidence in the literature that shows that marine species are adapting to climate change through shifting distributions and timing of biological events, while evidence for adaptation through evolutionary processes is limited. For human systems, existing studies focus on frameworks and principles of adaptation planning, but examples of implemented adaptation actions and evaluation of outcomes are scarce. These findings highlight potentially useful strategies given specific social-ecological contexts, as well as key barriers and specific information gaps requiring further research and actions.

Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf

Calanus finmarchicus is vital to pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies suggest the species is vulnerable to the effects of global warming, particularly on the Northeast U.S. Shelf, which is in the southern portion of its range. In this study, we evaluate an ensemble of six different downscaled climate models and a high-resolution global climate model, and create a generalized additive model (GAM) to examine how future changes in temperature and salinity could affect the distribution and density of C. finmarchicus. By 2081–2100, we project average C. finmarchicus density will decrease by as much as 50% under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. These decreases are particularly pronounced in the spring and summer in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank. When compared to a high-resolution global climate model, the ensemble showed a more uniform change throughout the Northeast U.S. Shelf, while the high-resolution model showed larger decreases in the Northeast Channel, Shelf Break, and Central Gulf of Maine. C. finmarchicus is an important link between primary production and higher trophic levels, and the decrease projected here could be detrimental to the North Atlantic Right Whale and a host of important fishery species.

The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people

Most ecological processes now show responses to anthropogenic climate change. In terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, species are changing genetically, physiologically, morphologically, and phenologically and are shifting their distributions, which affects food webs and results in new interactions. Disruptions scale from the gene to the ecosystem and have documented consequences for people, including unpredictable fisheries and crop yields, loss of genetic diversity in wild crop varieties, and increasing impacts of pests and diseases. In addition to the more easily observed changes, such as shifts in flowering phenology, we argue that many hidden dynamics, such as genetic changes, are also taking place. Understanding shifts in ecological processes can guide human adaptation strategies. In addition to reducing greenhouse gases, climate action and policy must therefore focus equally on strategies that safeguard biodiversity and ecosystems.

The most primitive metazoan animals, the placozoans, show high sensitivity to increasing ocean temperatures and acidities

The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) leads to rising temperatures and acidification in the oceans, which directly or indirectly affects all marine organisms, from bacteria to animals. We here ask whether the simplest-and possibly also the oldest-metazoan animals, the placozoans, are particularly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. Placozoans are found in all warm and temperate oceans and are soft-bodied, microscopic invertebrates lacking any calcified structures, organs, or symmetry. We here show that placozoans respond highly sensitive to temperature and acidity stress. The data reveal differential responses in different placozoan lineages and encourage efforts to develop placozoans as a potential biomarker system.

Projected impacts of 21st century climate change on diapause in Calanus finmarchicus

Diapause plays a key role in the life cycle of high latitude zooplankton. During diapause, animals avoid starving in winter by living in deep waters where metabolism is lower and met by lipid reserves. Global warming is therefore expected to shorten the maximum potential diapause duration by increasing metabolic rates and by reducing body size and lipid reserves. This will alter the phenology of zooplankton, impact higher trophic levels and disrupt biological carbon pumps. Here, we project the impacts of climate change on the key North Atlantic copepod Calanus finmarchicus under IPCC RCP 8.5. Potential diapause duration is modelled in relation to body size and overwintering temperature. The projections show pronounced geographic variations. Potential diapause duration reduces by more than 30% in the Western Atlantic, whereas in the key overwintering centre of the Norwegian Sea it changes only marginally. Surface temperature rises, which reduce body size and lipid reserves, will have a similar impact to deep-water changes on diapause in many regions. Because deep-water warming lags that at the surface, animals in the Labrador Sea could offset warming impacts by diapausing in deeper waters. However, the ability to control diapause depth may be limited.

The predictive skill of species distribution models for plankton in a changing climate

Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to project spatial relocations of marine taxa under future climate change scenarios. However, tests of their predictive skill in the real-world are rare. Here, we use data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder program, one of the longest running and most extensive marine biological monitoring programs, to investigate the reliability of predicted plankton distributions. We apply three commonly used SDMs to 20 representative plankton species, including copepods, diatoms, and dinoflagellates, all found in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas. We fit the models to decadal subsets of the full (1958-2012) dataset, and then use them to predict both forward and backward in time, comparing the model predictions against the corresponding observations. The probability of correctly predicting presence was low, peaking at 0.5 for copepods, and model skill typically did not outperform a null model assuming distributions to be constant in time. The predicted prevalence increasingly differed from the observed prevalence for predictions with more distance in time from their training dataset. More detailed investigations based on four focal species revealed that strong spatial variations in skill exist, with the least skill at the edges of the distributions, where prevalence is lowest. Furthermore, the scores of traditional single-value model performance metrics were contrasting and some implied overoptimistic conclusions about model skill. Plankton may be particularly challenging to model, due to its short life span and the dispersive effects of constant water movements on all spatial scales, however there are few other studies against which to compare these results. We conclude that rigorous model validation, including comparison against null models, is essential to assess the robustness of projections of marine planktonic species under climate change.

The metabolic response of marine copepods to environmental warming and ocean acidification in the absence of food

Marine copepods are central to the productivity and biogeochemistry of marine ecosystems. Nevertheless, the direct and indirect effects of climate change on their metabolic functioning remain poorly understood. Here, we use metabolomics, the unbiased study of multiple low molecular weight organic metabolites, to examine how the physiology of Calanus spp. is affected by end-of-century global warming and ocean acidification scenarios. We report that the physiological stresses associated with incubation without food over a 5-day period greatly exceed those caused directly by seawater temperature or pH perturbations. This highlights the need to contextualise the results of climate change experiments by comparison to other, naturally occurring stressors such as food deprivation, which is being exacerbated by global warming. Protein and lipid metabolism were up-regulated in the food-deprived animals, with a novel class of taurine-containing lipids and the essential polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid, changing significantly over the duration of our experiment. Copepods derive these PUFAs by ingesting diatoms and flagellated microplankton respectively. Climate-driven changes in the productivity, phenology and composition of microplankton communities, and hence the availability of these fatty acids, therefore have the potential to influence the ability of copepods to survive starvation and other environmental stressors.

Warming shelf seas drive the subtropicalization of European pelagic fish communities

Pelagic fishes are among the most ecologically and economically important fish species in European seas. In principle, these pelagic fishes have potential to demonstrate rapid abundance and distribution shifts in response to climatic variability due to their high adult motility, planktonic larval stages, and low dependence on benthic habitat for food or shelter during their life histories. Here, we provide evidence of substantial climate-driven changes to the structure of pelagic fish communities in European shelf seas. We investigated the patterns of species-level change using catch records from 57,870 fisheries-independent survey trawls from across European continental shelf region between 1965 and 2012. We analysed changes in the distribution and rate of occurrence of the six most common species, and observed a strong subtropicalization of the North Sea and Baltic Sea assemblages. These areas have shifted away from cold-water assemblages typically characterized by Atlantic herring and European sprat from the 1960s to 1980s, to warmer-water assemblages including Atlantic mackerel, Atlantic horse mackerel, European pilchard and European anchovy from the 1990s onwards. We next investigated if warming sea temperatures have forced these changes using temporally comprehensive data from the North Sea region. Our models indicated the primary driver of change in these species has been sea surface temperatures in all cases. Together, these analyses highlight how individual species responses have combined to result in a dramatic subtropicalization of the pelagic fish assemblage of the European continental shelf.