Strengthened currents override the effect of warming on lobster larval dispersal and survival

Genomic analyses indicate resilience of a commercially and culturally important marine gastropod snail to climate change

Genomic vulnerability analyses are being increasingly used to assess the adaptability of species to climate change and provide an opportunity for proactive management of harvested marine species in changing oceans. Southeastern Australia is a climate change hotspot where many marine species are shifting poleward. The turban snail, Turbo militaris is a commercially and culturally harvested marine gastropod snail from eastern Australia. The species has exhibited a climate-driven poleward range shift over the last two decades presenting an ongoing challenge for sustainable fisheries management. We investigate the impact of future climate change on T. militaris using genotype-by-sequencing to project patterns of gene flow and local adaptation across its range under climate change scenarios. A single admixed, and potentially panmictic, demographic unit was revealed with no evidence of genetic subdivision across the species range. Significant genotype associations with heterogeneous habitat features were observed, including associations with sea surface temperature, ocean currents, and nutrients, indicating possible adaptive genetic differentiation. These findings suggest that standing genetic variation may be available for selection to counter future environmental change, assisted by widespread gene flow, high fecundity and short generation time in this species. We discuss the findings of this study in the content of future fisheries management and conservation.

The role of water mass advection in staging of the Southern Ocean Salpa thompsoni populations

Salpa thompsoni is an important grazer in the Southern Ocean. Their abundance in the western Antarctic Peninsula is highly variable, varying by up to 5000-fold inter-annually. Here, we use a particle-tracking model to simulate the potential dispersal of salp populations from a source location in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) to the Palmer Long Term Ecological Research (PAL LTER) study area. Tracking simulations are run from 1998 to 2015, and compared against both a stationary salp population model simulated at the PAL LTER study area and observations from the PAL LTER program. The tracking simulation was able to recreate closely the long-term trend and the higher abundances at the slope stations. The higher abundances observed at slope stations are likely due to the advection of salp populations from a source location in the ACC, highlighting the significant role of water mass circulation in the distribution and abundance of Southern Ocean salp populations.

Individual-based eco-evolutionary models for understanding adaptation in changing seas

As climate change threatens species' persistence, predicting the potential for species to adapt to rapidly changing environments is imperative for the development of effective conservation strategies. Eco-evolutionary individual-based models (IBMs) can be useful tools for achieving this objective. We performed a literature review to identify studies that apply these tools in marine systems. Our survey suggested that this is an emerging area of research fuelled in part by developments in modelling frameworks that allow simulation of increasingly complex ecological, genetic and demographic processes. The studies we identified illustrate the promise of this approach and advance our understanding of the capacity for adaptation to outpace climate change. These studies also identify limitations of current models and opportunities for further development. We discuss three main topics that emerged across studies: (i) effects of genetic architecture and non-genetic responses on adaptive potential; (ii) capacity for gene flow to facilitate rapid adaptation; and (iii) impacts of multiple stressors on persistence. Finally, we demonstrate the approach using simple simulations and provide a framework for users to explore eco-evolutionary IBMs as tools for understanding adaptation in changing seas.

Mismatch of thermal optima between performance measures, life stages and species of spiny lobster

In an ocean warming hotspot off south-east Australia, many species have expanded their ranges polewards, including the eastern rock lobster, Sagmariasus verreauxi. This species is likely extending its range via larval advection into Tasmanian coastal waters, which are occupied by the more commercially important southern rock lobster, Jasus edwardsii. Here, thermal tolerances of these lobster species at two life stages were investigated to assess how they may respond to warming ocean temperatures. We found that the pattern, optimum and magnitude of thermal responses differed between performance measures, life stages and species. Sagmariasus verreauxi had a warmer optimal temperature for aerobic scope and escape speed than J. edwardsii. However, J. edwardsii had a higher magnitude of escape speed, indicating higher capacity for escape performance. There were also differences between life stages within species, with the larval stage having higher variation in optimal temperatures between measures than juveniles. This inconsistency in performance optima and magnitude indicates that single performance measures at single life stages are unlikely to accurately predict whole animal performance in terms of life-time survival and fitness. However, combined results of this study suggest that with continued ocean warming, S. verreauxi is likely to continue to extend its distribution polewards and increase in abundance in Tasmania.

Genetic structure and life history are key factors in species distribution models of spiny lobsters

AIM

We incorporated genetic structure and life history phase in species distribution models (SDMs) constructed for a widespread spiny lobster, to reveal local adaptations specific to individual subspecies and predict future range shifts under the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario.

LOCATION

Indo-West Pacific.

METHODS

MaxEnt was used to construct present-day SDMs for the spiny lobster Panulirus homarus and individually for the three genetically distinct subspecies of which it comprises. SDMs incorporated both sea surface and benthic (seafloor) climate layers to recreate discrete influences of these habitats during the drifting larval and benthic juvenile and adult life history phases. Principle component analysis (PCA) was used to infer environmental variables to which individual subspecies were adapted. SDM projections of present-day habitat suitability were compared with predictions for the year 2,100, under the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario.

RESULTS

In the PCA, salinity best explained P. h. megasculptus habitat suitability, compared with current velocity in P. h. rubellus and sea surface temperature in P. h. homarus. Drifting and benthic life history phases were adapted to different combinations of sea surface and benthic environmental variables considered. Highly suitable habitats for benthic phases were spatially enveloped within more extensive sea surface habitats suitable for drifting larvae. SDMs predicted that present-day highly suitable habitats for P. homarus will decrease by the year 2,100.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Incorporating genetic structure in SDMs showed that individual spiny lobster subspecies had unique adaptations, which could not be resolved in species-level models. The use of sea surface and benthic climate layers revealed the relative importance of environmental variables during drifting and benthic life history phases. SDMs that included genetic structure and life history were more informative in predictive models of climate change effects.

Future ocean temperature impacting the survival prospects of post-larval spiny lobsters

Spiny lobster post-larvae undertake an extensive migration from the open ocean to the coast, during which time their swimming is fueled solely by energy reserves accumulated through their preceding larval phase. We assessed the influence of future ocean temperatures on the swimming behavior and energy use of migrating post-larvae of Sagmariasus verreauxi, by experimentally swimming post-larvae for up to 6 days at three temperatures and measuring the lipid and protein used, and observing their time spent actively swimming. Increasing the temperature from 17 °C to 23 °C doubled the energy utilized by post-larvae while swimming, while also reducing the time they spent swimming by three times. Therefore, increasing ocean temperatures appear to greatly affect the energetic cost and efficiency of shoreward migration of post-larvae in this lobster species, with the potential to markedly impact post-larval recruitment into coastal populations under future scenarios of ocean warming.

Environmental versus operational drivers of drifting FAD beaching in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean

In an effort to increase purse seine fishing efficiency for tropical tunas, over 30,000 drifting Fish Aggregating Devices (dFADs) are deployed every year by fishers in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean (WCPO). The use of dFADs also impacts ecosystems, in particular through marine pollution and dFAD beaching. This paper presents the first estimate of dFAD beaching events in the WCPO (>1300 in 2016–2017) and their distribution. Lagrangian simulations of virtual dFADs, released subject to contrasting deployment distributions, help us determine the relative importance of operational versus environmental drivers of dFADs drifting to beaching areas. The highest levels of beaching, occurring on Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands, are likely a result of the prevailing westward oceanic circulation and subsequent local processes driving dFADs towards land. Similarly, high beaching rates in Tuvalu appear to be due to the general circulation of the WCPO. In contrast, beaching in Kiribati Gilbert Islands appear to be more strongly related to dFAD deployment strategy. These findings indicate that reducing beaching events via changes in deployment locations may be difficult. As such, management approaches combining dFAD deployment limits, the use of biodegradable dFADs, recoveries at-sea close to sensitive areas and/or beached dFAD removal should be considered.

Harnessing synthetic biology for kelp forest conservation1

Environmental and climatic change is outpacing the ability of organisms to adapt, at an unprecedented level, resulting in range contractions and global ecosystem shifts to novel states. At the same time, scientific advances continue to accelerate, providing never-before imagined solutions to current and emerging environmental problems. Synthetic biology, the creation of novel and engineered genetic variation, is perhaps the fastest developing and transformative scientific field. Its application to solve extant and emerging environmental problems is vast, at times controversial, and technological advances have outpaced the social, ethical, and practical considerations of its use. Here, we discuss the potential direct and indirect applications of synthetic biology to kelp forest conservation. Rather than advocate or oppose its use, we identify where and when it may play a role in halting or reversing global kelp loss and discuss challenges and identify pathways of research needed to bridge the gap between technological advances and organismal biology and ecology. There is a pressing need for prompt collaboration and dialogue among synthetic biologists, ecologists, and conservationists to identify opportunities for use and ensure that extant research directions are set on trajectories to allow these currently disparate fields to converge toward practical environmental solutions.

Propagule Dispersal Determines Mangrove Zonation at Intertidal and Estuarine Scales

Propagule dispersal has generally been recognized as a vital factor affecting the spatial structure of tropical forest plants. However, available research shows that this hypothesis does not apply to mangrove species the propagules of which are dispersed by water. Due to the lack of comprehensive and quantitative information as well as the high spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the mangrove environment, the exact factors affecting the spatial structure of mangrove forests are poorly understood. To assess this, we selected a mangrove estuary with high mangrove species richness that experiences great changes in water salinity. After investigating the zonation of mature mangrove individuals across tides and the estuary, we measured the size and initial specific gravity of the propagules and then selected the eight most common species from which to observe the changes in specific gravity, buoyancy, and root initiation during dispersal at different sites with different water salinity regimes. The relationships among distribution patterns, propagule establishment, and dispersal behavior were investigated. We found that mangrove propagule dispersal is not a passively buoyant process controlled by water currents. During dispersal, mangrove propagules can actively adjust their specific gravity and root initiation. The dynamic specific gravity of the propagules was negatively related to propagule buoyancy and surface elevation. The differences in propagule specific gravity corroborated the distribution patterns of the species across the intertidal zone and estuary. Mangrove zonation on both the intertidal and estuarine scale can be explained by the tidal sorting hypothesis, as zonation is controlled by the tidal sorting of the propagules according to buoyancy and by the differential ability of the propagules to establish in the intertidal zones. The results add new understanding of observed mangrove species zonation and should inform conservation managers when restoring mangroves or evaluating the potential impacts of global change and anthropogenic disturbances that might alter the hydrology, including the water salinity regime.

Mesoscale circulation determines broad spatio-temporal settlement patterns of lobster

The influence of physical oceanographic processes on the dispersal of larvae is critical for understanding the ecology of species and for anticipating settlement into fisheries to aid long-term sustainable harvest. This study examines the mechanisms by which ocean currents shape larval dispersal and supply to the continental shelf-break, and the extent to which circulation determines settlement patterns using Sagmariasus verreauxi (Eastern Rock Lobster, ERL) as a model species. Despite the large range of factors that can impact larval dispersal, we show that within a Western Boundary Current system, mesoscale circulation explains broad spatio-temporal patterns of observed settlement including inter-annual and decadal variability along 500 km of coastline. To discern links between ocean circulation and settlement, we correlate a unique 21- year dataset of observed lobster settlement (i.e., early juvenile & pueruli abundance), with simulated larval settlement. Simulations use outputs of an eddy-resolving, data-assimilated, hydrodynamic model, incorporating ERL spawning strategy and larval duration. The latitude where the East Australian Current (EAC) deflects east and separates from the continent determines the limit between regions of low and high ERL settlement. We found that years with a persistent EAC flow have low settlement while years when mesoscale eddies prevail have high settlement; in fact, mesoscale eddies facilitate the transport of larvae to the continental shelf-break from offshore. Proxies for settlement based on circulation features observed with satellites could therefore be useful in predicting broadscale patterns of settlement orders of magnitudes to guide harvest limits.

Climate change does not affect the seafood quality of a commonly targeted fish

Climate change can affect marine and estuarine fish via alterations to their distributions, abundances, sizes, physiology and ecological interactions, threatening the provision of ecosystem goods and services. While we have an emerging understanding of such ecological impacts to fish, we know little about the potential influence of climate change on the provision of nutritional seafood to sustain human populations. In particular, the quantity, quality and/or taste of seafood may be altered by future environmental changes with implications for the economic viability of fisheries. In an orthogonal mesocosm experiment, we tested the influence of near-future ocean warming and acidification on the growth, health and seafood quality of a recreationally and commercially important fish, yellowfin bream (Acanthopagrus australis). The growth of yellowfin bream significantly increased under near-future temperature conditions (but not acidification), with little change in health (blood glucose and haematocrit) or tissue biochemistry and nutritional properties (fatty acids, lipids, macro- and micronutrients, moisture, ash and total N). Yellowfin bream appear to be highly resilient to predicted near-future ocean climate change, which might be facilitated by their wide spatio-temporal distribution across habitats and broad diet. Moreover, an increase in growth, but little change in tissue quality, suggests that near-future ocean conditions will benefit fisheries and fishers that target yellowfin bream. The data reiterate the inherent resilience of yellowfin bream as an evolutionary consequence of their euryhaline status in often environmentally challenging habitats and imply their sustainable and viable fisheries into the future. We contend that widely distributed species that span large geographic areas and habitats can be "climate winners" by being resilient to the negative direct impacts of near-future oceanic and estuarine climate change.

The interactive effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change on aquatic ecosystems

Summary of current knowledge about effects of UV radiation in inland and oceanic waters related to stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change.

Global-scale dispersal and connectivity in mangroves

Mangroves are of considerable ecological and socioeconomical importance; however, substantial areal losses have been recorded in many regions, driven primarily by anthropogenic disturbances and sea level rise. Oceanic dispersal of mangrove propagules provides a key mechanism for shifting distributions in response to environmental change. Here we provide a model framework for describing global dispersal and connectivity in mangroves. We identify important dispersal routes, barriers, and stepping-stones and quantify the influence of minimum and maximum floating periods on simulated connectivity patterns. Our study provides a baseline to improve our understanding of observed mangrove species distributions and, in combination with climate data, the expected range shifts under climate change.

Dispersal provides a key mechanism for geographical range shifts in response to changing environmental conditions. For mangroves, which are highly susceptible to climate change, the spatial scale of dispersal remains largely unknown. Here we use a high-resolution, eddy- and tide-resolving numerical ocean model to simulate mangrove propagule dispersal across the global ocean and generate connectivity matrices between mangrove habitats using a range of floating periods. We find high rates of along-coast transport and transoceanic dispersal across the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. No connectivity is observed between populations on either side of the American and African continents. Archipelagos, such as the Galapagos and those found in Polynesia, Micronesia, and Melanesia, act as critical stepping-stones for dispersal across the Pacific Ocean. Direct and reciprocal dispersal routes across the Indian Ocean via the South Equatorial Current and seasonally reversing monsoon currents, respectively, allow connectivity between western Indian Ocean and Indo-West Pacific sites. We demonstrate the isolation of the Hawaii Islands and help explain the presence of mangroves on the latitudinal outlier Bermuda. Finally, we find that dispersal distance and connectivity are highly sensitive to the minimum and maximum floating periods. We anticipate that our findings will guide future research agendas to quantify biophysical factors that determine mangrove dispersal and connectivity, including the influence of ocean surface water properties on metabolic processes and buoyancy behavior, which may determine the potential of viably reaching a suitable habitat. Ultimately, this will lead to a better understanding of global mangrove species distributions and their response to changing climate conditions.

Complex effect of projected sea temperature and wind change on flatfish dispersal

Climate change not only alters ocean physics and chemistry but also affects the biota. Larval dispersal patterns from spawning to nursery grounds and larval survival are driven by hydrodynamic processes and shaped by (a)biotic environmental factors. Therefore, it is important to understand the impacts of increased temperature rise and changes in wind speed and direction on larval drift and survival. We apply a particle-tracking model coupled to a 3D-hydrodynamic model of the English Channel and the North Sea to study the dispersal dynamics of the exploited flatfish (common) sole (Solea solea). We first assess model robustness and interannual variability in larval transport over the period 1995-2011. Then, using a subset of representative years (2003-2011), we investigate the impact of climate change on larval dispersal, connectivity patterns and recruitment at the nursery grounds. The impacts of five scenarios inspired by the 2040 projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are discussed and compared with interannual variability. The results suggest that 33% of the year-to-year recruitment variability is explained at a regional scale and that a 9-year period is sufficient to capture interannual variability in dispersal dynamics. In the scenario involving a temperature increase, early spawning and a wind change, the model predicts that (i) dispersal distance (+70%) and pelagic larval duration (+22%) will increase in response to the reduced temperature (-9%) experienced by early hatched larvae, (ii) larval recruitment at the nursery grounds will increase in some areas (36%) and decrease in others (-58%) and (iii) connectivity will show contrasting changes between areas. At the regional scale, our model predicts considerable changes in larval recruitment (+9%) and connectivity (retention -4% and seeding +37%) due to global change. All of these factors affect the distribution and productivity of sole and therefore the functioning of the demersal ecosystem and fisheries management.

Forgotten underwater forests: The key role of fucoids on Australian temperate reefs

Kelp forests dominated by species of Laminariales are globally recognized as key habitats on subtidal temperate rocky reefs. Forests characterized by fucalean seaweed, in contrast, receive relatively less attention despite being abundant, ubiquitous, and ecologically important. Here, we review information on subtidal fucalean taxa of Australia's Great Southern Reef, with a focus on the three most abundant and widely distributed genera (Phyllospora, Scytothalia, and Sargassum) to reveal the functionally unique role of fucoids in temperate reef ecology. Fucalean species span the entire temperate coastline of Australia (~71,000 km²) and play an important role in supporting subtidal temperate biodiversity and economic values on rocky reefs as well as in adjacent habitats. Climatic and anthropogenic stressors have precipitated significant range retractions and declines in many fucoids, with critical implications for associated assemblages. Such losses are persistent and unlikely to be reversed naturally due to the life history of these species and colonization of competitors and grazers following loss. Active restoration is proving successful in bringing back some fucoid species (Phyllospora comosa) lost from urban shores and will complement other passive and active forms of conservation. Fucalean forests play a unique role on subtidal temperate reefs globally, especially in Australia, but are comparatively understudied. Addressing this knowledge gap will be critical for understanding, predicting, and mitigating extant and future loss of these underwater forests and the valuable ecosystem services they support.

Anticipating changes to future connectivity within a network of marine protected areas

Continental boundary currents are projected to be altered under future scenarios of climate change. As these currents often influence dispersal and connectivity among populations of many marine organisms, changes to boundary currents may have dramatic implications for population persistence. Networks of marine protected areas (MPAs) often aim to maintain connectivity, but anticipation of the scale and extent of climatic impacts on connectivity are required to achieve this critical conservation goal in a future of climate change. For two key marine species (kelp and sea urchins), we use oceanographic modelling to predict how continental boundary currents are likely to change connectivity among a network of MPAs spanning over 1000 km of coastline off the coast of eastern Australia. Overall change in predicted connectivity among pairs of MPAs within the network did not change significantly over and above temporal variation within climatic scenarios, highlighting the need for future studies to incorporate temporal variation in dispersal to robustly anticipate likely change. However, the intricacies of connectivity between different pairs of MPAs were noteworthy. For kelp, poleward connectivity among pairs of MPAs tended to increase in the future, whereas equatorward connectivity tended to decrease. In contrast, for sea urchins, connectivity among pairs of MPAs generally decreased in both directions. Self-seeding within higher-latitude MPAs tended to increase, and the role of low-latitude MPAs as a sink for urchins changed significantly in contrasting ways. These projected changes have the potential to alter important genetic parameters with implications for adaptation and ecosystem vulnerability to climate change. Considering such changes, in the context of managing and designing MPA networks, may ensure that conservation goals are achieved into the future.

Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate

Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO₂ . However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high-resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5-class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present-day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification.

Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science

Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions.

Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: Progress report, 2016

The Parties to the Montreal Protocol are informed by three Panels of experts. One of these is the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP), which deals with two focal issues. The first focus is the effects of UV radiation on human health, animals, plants, biogeochemistry, air quality, and materials. The second focus is on interactions between UV radiation and global climate change and how these may affect humans and the environment. When considering the effects of climate change, it has become clear that processes resulting in changes in stratospheric ozone are more complex than previously believed. As a result of this, human health and environmental issues will be longer-lasting and more regionally variable. Like the other Panels, the EEAP produces a detailed report every four years; the most recent was published as a series of seven papers in 2015 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2015, 14, 1-184). In the years in between, the EEAP produces less detailed and shorter Progress Reports of the relevant scientific findings. The most recent of these was for 2015 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2016, 15, 141-147). The present Progress Report for 2016 assesses some of the highlights and new insights with regard to the interactive nature of the direct and indirect effects of UV radiation, atmospheric processes, and climate change. The more detailed Quadrennial Assessment will be made available in 2018.

Sensitivity of marine protected area network connectivity to atmospheric variability

International efforts are underway to establish well-connected systems of marine protected areas (MPAs) covering at least 10% of the ocean by 2020. But the nature and dynamics of ocean ecosystem connectivity are poorly understood, with unresolved effects of climate variability. We used 40-year runs of a particle tracking model to examine the sensitivity of an MPA network for habitat-forming cold-water corals in the northeast Atlantic to changes in larval dispersal driven by atmospheric cycles and larval behaviour. Trajectories of Lophelia pertusa larvae were strongly correlated to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant pattern of interannual atmospheric circulation variability over the northeast Atlantic. Variability in trajectories significantly altered network connectivity and source-sink dynamics, with positive phase NAO conditions producing a well-connected but asymmetrical network connected from west to east. Negative phase NAO produced reduced connectivity, but notably some larvae tracked westward-flowing currents towards coral populations on the mid-Atlantic ridge. Graph theoretical metrics demonstrate critical roles played by seamounts and offshore banks in larval supply and maintaining connectivity across the network. Larval longevity and behaviour mediated dispersal and connectivity, with shorter lived and passive larvae associated with reduced connectivity. We conclude that the existing MPA network is vulnerable to atmospheric-driven changes in ocean circulation.

Sensitivity of marine protected area network connectivity to atmospheric variability

International efforts are underway to establish well-connected systems of marine protected areas (MPAs) covering at least 10% of the ocean by 2020. But the nature and dynamics of ocean ecosystem connectivity are poorly understood, with unresolved effects of climate variability. We used 40-year runs of a particle tracking model to examine the sensitivity of an MPA network for habitat-forming cold-water corals in the northeast Atlantic to changes in larval dispersal driven by atmospheric cycles and larval behaviour. Trajectories of Lophelia pertusa larvae were strongly correlated to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant pattern of interannual atmospheric circulation variability over the northeast Atlantic. Variability in trajectories significantly altered network connectivity and source-sink dynamics, with positive phase NAO conditions producing a well-connected but asymmetrical network connected from west to east. Negative phase NAO produced reduced connectivity, but notably some larvae tracked westward-flowing currents towards coral populations on the mid-Atlantic ridge. Graph theoretical metrics demonstrate critical roles played by seamounts and offshore banks in larval supply and maintaining connectivity across the network. Larval longevity and behaviour mediated dispersal and connectivity, with shorter lived and passive larvae associated with reduced connectivity. We conclude that the existing MPA network is vulnerable to atmospheric-driven changes in ocean circulation.

Animal behaviour shapes the ecological effects of ocean acidification and warming: moving from individual to community-level responses

Biological communities are shaped by complex interactions between organisms and their environment as well as interactions with other species. Humans are rapidly changing the marine environment through increasing greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in ocean warming and acidification. The first response by animals to environmental change is predominantly through modification of their behaviour, which in turn affects species interactions and ecological processes. Yet, many climate change studies ignore animal behaviour. Furthermore, our current knowledge of how global change alters animal behaviour is mostly restricted to single species, life phases and stressors, leading to an incomplete view of how coinciding climate stressors can affect the ecological interactions that structure biological communities. Here, we first review studies on the effects of warming and acidification on the behaviour of marine animals. We demonstrate how pervasive the effects of global change are on a wide range of critical behaviours that determine the persistence of species and their success in ecological communities. We then evaluate several approaches to studying the ecological effects of warming and acidification, and identify knowledge gaps that need to be filled, to better understand how global change will affect marine populations and communities through altered animal behaviours. Our review provides a synthesis of the far-reaching consequences that behavioural changes could have for marine ecosystems in a rapidly changing environment. Without considering the pervasive effects of climate change on animal behaviour we will limit our ability to forecast the impacts of ocean change and provide insights that can aid management strategies.