Are fish outside their usual ranges early indicators of climate-driven range shifts?

Twenty-five emerging questions when detecting, understanding, and predicting future fish distributions in a changing climate

The 2023 Annual Symposium of the Fisheries Society of the British Isles hosted opportunities for researchers, scientists, and policy makers to reflect on the state of art of predicting fish distributions and consider the implications to the marine and aquatic environments of a changing climate. The outcome of one special interest group at the Symposium was a collection of questions, organized under five themes, which begin to capture the state of the field and identify priorities for research and management over the coming years. The five themes were Physiology, Mechanisms, Detect and Measure, Manage, and Wider Ecosystems. The questions, 25 of them, addressed concepts which remain poorly understood, are data deficient, and/or are likely to be impacted in measurable or profound ways by climate change. Moving from the first to the last theme, the questions expanded in the scope of their considerations, from specific processes within the individual to ecosystem-wide impacts, but no one question is bigger than any other: each is important in detecting, understanding, and predicting fish distributions, and each will be impacted by an aspect of climate change. In this way, our questions, particularly those concerning unknown mechanisms and data deficiencies, aimed to offer a guide to other researchers, managers, and policy makers in the prioritization of future work as a changing climate is expected to have complex and disperse impacts on fish populations and distributions that will require a coordinated effort to address.

Pacific salmon in the Canadian Arctic highlight a range-expansion pathway for sub-Arctic fishes

Rapid climate change is altering Arctic ecosystems at unprecedented rates. These changes in the physical environment may open new corridors for species range expansions, with substantial implications for subsistence-dependent communities and sensitive ecosystems. Over the past 20 years, rising incidental harvest of Pacific salmon by subsistence fishers has been monitored across a widening range spanning multiple land claim jurisdictions in Arctic Canada. In this study, we connect Indigenous and scientific knowledges to explore potential oceanographic mechanisms facilitating this ongoing northward expansion of Pacific salmon into the western Canadian Arctic. A regression analysis was used to reveal and characterize a two-part mechanism related to thermal and sea-ice conditions in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas that explains nearly all of the variation in the relative abundance of salmon observed within this region. The results indicate that warmer late-spring temperatures in a Chukchi Sea watch-zone and persistent, suitable summer thermal conditions in a Beaufort Sea watch-zone together create a range-expansion corridor and are associated with higher salmon occurrences in subsistence harvests. Furthermore, there is a body of knowledge to suggest that these conditions, and consequently the presence and abundance of Pacific salmon, will become more persistent in the coming decades. Our collaborative approach positions us to document, explore, and explain mechanisms driving changes in fish biodiversity that have the potential to, or are already affecting, Indigenous rights-holders in a rapidly warming Arctic.

Effects of macroalgae and sea urchin grazing pressure on zoantharians growth under laboratory conditions

In the context of ocean warming, thermophilic organisms such as zoantharians are expanding and altering shallow benthic habitats. Here, a four-month laboratory experiment was performed to examine the influence of three types of macroalgae morphotypes common in the Canary Islands (turf algae, Lobophora spp., and crustose coralline algae) on the growth of two zoantharian species, Palythoa caribaeorum and Zoanthus pulchellus. Additionally, the grazing effects of echinoids Diadema africanum and Paracentrotus lividus were assessed as facilitators of substrate colonization by means of controlling macroalgae cover. Colony and algal coverages were measured at the beginning, middle and end of the experiment, and increments were calculated. Results indicated a general decrease in zoantharian colony sizes in contact with different algal types in the absence of sea urchins. However, P. caribaeorum colonies showed significant growth in the presence of D. africanum, highlighting the ecological importance of sea urchins in zoantharian population proliferation and subsequent community modification. This study represents the first investigation into zoantharian-macroalgae interactions under controlled conditions.

Biodiversity of Demersal Fish Communities in the Cosmonaut Sea Revealed by DNA Barcoding Analyses

The Cosmonaut Sea is one of the least accessed regions in the Southern Ocean, and our knowledge about the fish biodiversity in the region is sparse. In this study, we provided a description of demersal fish diversity in the Cosmonaut Sea by analysing cytochrome oxidase I (COI) barcodes of 98 fish samples that were hauled by trawling during the 37th and 38th Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition (CHINARE) cruises. Twenty-four species representing 19 genera and 11 families, namely, Artedidraconidae, Bathydraconidae, Bathylagidae, Channichthyidae, Liparidae, Macrouridae, Muraenolepididae, Myctophidae, Nototheniidae, Paralepididae and Zoarcidae, were discriminated and identified, which were largely identical to local fish occurrence records and the general pattern of demersal fish communities at high Antarctic shelf areas. The validity of a barcoding gap failed to be detected and confirmed across all species due to the indicative signals of two potential cryptic species. Nevertheless, DNA barcoding still demonstrated to be a very efficient and sound method for the discrimination and classification of Antarctic fishes. In the future, various sampling strategies that cover all geographic sections and depth strata of the Cosmonaut Sea are encouraged to enhance our understanding of local fish communities, within which DNA barcoding can play an important role in either molecular taxonomy or the establishment of a dedicated local reference database for eDNA metabarcoding analyses.

Climate, currents and species traits contribute to early stages of marine species redistribution

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a rapid redistribution of life on Earth, particularly in the ocean, with profound implications for humans. Yet warming-driven range shifts are known to be influenced by a variety of factors whose combined effects are still little understood. Here, we use scientist-verified out-of-range observations from a national citizen-science initiative to assess the combined effect of long-term warming, climate extremes (i.e., heatwaves and cold spells), ocean currents, and species traits on early stages of marine range extensions in two warming 'hotspot' regions of southern Australia. We find effects of warming to be contingent upon complex interactions with the strength of ocean currents and their mutual directional agreement, as well as species traits. Our study represents the most comprehensive account to date of factors driving early stages of marine species redistributions, providing important evidence for the assessment of the vulnerability of marine species distributions to climate change.

Range expansion of a widespread Indo-Pacific haemulid, the barred javelin Pomadasys kaakan (Cuvier, 1830), in a climate change hotspot

The authors report a first sighting of a euryhaline fish in the climate change hotspot along Australia's south-eastern coast. The barred javelin, Pomadasys kaakan (Cuvier, 1830) was found in the Nambucca River in New South Wales, Australia, during 2021 and 2022. Specimens were adult, suggesting they may not be transitory vagrants. The new southernmost location recorded here represents a c. 200 km out-of-range sighting compared to previous records, and is c. 380 km south of the southernmost Australian stronghold of the species in Moreton Bay, Queensland.

Now you see me: "first" records of the greater amberjack Seriola dumerili at Rapa Nui range extension or increased scientific effort?

We report new records of the fisheries-harvested subtropical greater amberjack Seriola dumerili for the south-east Pacific Ocean. Despite local fishers' asserting that three Seriola morphotypes exist in the region, only one species (the yellowtail amberjack Seriola lalandi) was previously scientifically recorded for Rapa Nui (also known as Easter Island). Whilst we present the first "scientific record", S. dumerili, traditional ecological knowledge suggests that this is likely a pre-existing (albeit transient) species of the Rapa Nui ecoregion. Establishing the existing/historic distributional limits of commercially and ecologically valuable species is key for observing climate-driven distribution shifts, and the inclusion of traditional ecological knowledge is particularly important in areas with relatively lower scientific effort.

Meridionalization as a Possible Resource for Fisheries: The Case Study of Caranx rhonchus Geoffroy Saint-Hilaire, 1817, in Southern Italian Waters

Climate change affects the shift range distribution of species, especially among mobile species, and this phenomenon can alter ecosystems and impacts human activities. Fishing is an anthropic activity that undergoes the effect not only of the introduction and increase of non-native species but also of native thermophilic ones. Some of these species can become a commercially exploitable resource. However, this information is often obscured by the negative effects these species can cause to the environment. We investigated how the thermophilic species Caranx rhonchus, neglected in Italy, could become a relevant resource. We studied the nutritional profile and the presence of heavy metal contamination and compared these traits with those of a similar common Mediterranean species, namely Trachurus trachurus. The proximate composition was determined following the AOAC procedure, while the fatty acid profile was determined by GC/MS, and the mineral component was obtained by mass spectrometer (ICP-MS). Caranx rhonchus is a nutritionally good species, although it is little consumed and exploited. Increasing the market supply with new commercially exploitable emerging species would benefit local communities and the environment. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate how a shift of the range caused by climate change can provide benefits within the human dimension.

Characterization of the abiotic drivers of abundance of nearshore Arctic fishes

Fish are critical ecologically and socioeconomically for subsistence economies in the Arctic, an ecosystem undergoing unprecedented environmental change. Our understanding of the responses of nearshore Arctic fishes to environmental change is inadequate because of limited research on the physicochemical drivers of abundance occurring at a fine scale. Here, high-frequency in situ measurements of pH, temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen were paired with daily fish catches in nearshore Alaskan waters of the Beaufort Sea. Due to the threat that climate change poses to high-latitude marine ecosystems, our main objective was to characterize the abiotic drivers of abundance and elucidate how nearshore fish communities may change in the future. We used generalized additive models (GAMs) to describe responses to the nearshore environment for 18 fish species. Relationships between abundance and the physicochemical environment were variable between species and reflected life history. Each abiotic covariate was significant in at least one GAM, exhibiting both nonlinear and linear associations with abundance. Temperature was the most important predictor of abundance and was significant in GAMs for 11 species. Notably, pH was a significant predictor of abundance for six species: Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida), broad whitefish (Coregonus nasus), Dolly Varden (Salvelinus malma), ninespine stickleback (Pungitius pungitius), saffron cod (Eleginus gracilis), and whitespotted greenling (Hexagrammos stelleri). Broad whitefish and whitespotted greenling abundance was positively associated with pH, while Arctic cod and saffron cod abundance was negatively associated with pH. These results may be a bellwether for future nearshore Arctic fish community change by providing a foundational characterization of the relationships between abundance and the abiotic environment, particularly in regard to pH, and demonstrate the importance of including a wider range of physicochemical habitat covariates in future research.

Species-specific thermal classification schemes can improve climate related marine resource decisions

Global climate change increasingly contributes to large changes in ecosystem structure. Timely management of rapidly changing marine ecosystems must be matched with methods to rapidly quantify and assess climate driven impacts to ecological communities. Here we create a species-specific, classification system for fish thermal affinities, using three quantifiable datasets and expert opinion. Multiple sources of information limit potential data bias and avoid misclassification. Using a temperate kelp forest fish community in California, USA as a test case for this new methodology, we found the majority of species had high classification agreement across all four data sources (n = 78) but also a number of low agreement species (2 sources disagree from the others, n = 47). For species with low agreement, use of just one dataset to classify species, as is commonly done, would lead to high risk of misclassification. Differences in species classification between individual datasets and our composite classification were apparent. Applying different thermal classifications, lead to different conclusions when quantifying 'warm' and 'cool' species density responses to a marine heatwave. Managers can use this classification approach as a tool to generate accurate, timely and simple information for resource management.

Marine protected areas do not prevent marine heatwave-induced fish community structure changes in a temperate transition zone

Acute climate events like marine heatwaves have the potential to temporarily or permanently alter community structure with effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We aimed to quantify the magnitude and consistency of climate driven community shifts inside and outside Marine Protected Areas before and after a marine heatwave using a kelp forest fish community dataset in southern California, USA. Abundance, biomass, diversity and recruitment of warm-water affinity species during the marine heatwave were significantly greater compared with prior years yet cool-water affinity species did not show commensurate declines. Fish communities inside MPAs were not buffered from these community shifts. This result is likely because the particular species most responsible for the community response to environmental drivers, were not fisheries targets. Resource managers working to preserve biodiversity in a changing climate will need to consider additional management tools and strategies in combination with protected areas to mitigate the effect of warming on marine communities.

Dietary generalism accelerates arrival and persistence of coral-reef fishes in their novel ranges under climate change

Climate change is redistributing marine and terrestrial species globally. Life-history traits mediate the ability of species to cope with novel environmental conditions, and can be used to gauge the potential redistribution of taxa facing the challenges of a changing climate. However, it is unclear whether the same traits are important across different stages of range shifts (arrival, population increase, persistence). To test which life-history traits most mediate the process of range extension, we used a 16-year dataset of 35 range-extending coral-reef fish species and quantified the importance of various traits on the arrival time (earliness) and degree of persistence (prevalence and patchiness) at higher latitudes. We show that traits predisposing species to shift their range more rapidly (large body size, broad latitudinal range, long dispersal duration) did not drive the early stages of redistribution. Instead, we found that as diet breadth increased, the initial arrival and establishment (prevalence and patchiness) of climate migrant species in temperate locations occurred earlier. While the initial incursion of range-shifting species depends on traits associated with dispersal potential, subsequent establishment hinges more on a species' ability to exploit novel food resources locally. These results highlight that generalist species that can best adapt to novel food sources might be most successful in a future ocean.

High temperature acclimation alters upper thermal limits and growth performance of Indian major carp, rohu, Labeo rohita (Hamilton, 1822)

Increase in water temperature due to anthropogenic and climatic changes is expected to affect physiological functions of fish. In this study, we determined high temperature tolerance (CTmax) of a common aquacultured Indian major carp, rohu, Labeo rohita fingerlings (15.96 ± 0.72 g BW, 11.56 ± 0.42 cm TL) followed by acclimatization at three temperatures (30, 33, 36 °C). To determine the CTmax, we analyzed the major hemato-biochemical indices - hemoglobin (Hb), red blood cell (RBC), white blood cell (WBC), blood glucose levels, and erythrocytic nuclear abnormalities (ENAs) and erythrocytic cellular abnormalities (ECAs) of peripheral erythrocytes in the fish sampled at the start and end point at each acclimated temperature. Significantly decreased CTmax of the fish was found at 36 °C compared to 30 °C and 33 °C. The fish in the highest (36 °C) temperature were found with significantly lower Hb and RBC content and significantly higher WBC and blood glucose levels than that of the fishes in the lowest (30 °C) temperature both at the start and end points. The highest frequencies of ENAs and ECAs were found in the highest (36 °C) temperature group compared to the lowest (30 °C) temperature group at both the points. We also evaluated growth performance of the rohu fingerlings reared in the three temperatures for 60 days. The growth parameters - final weight gain, percent weight gain and specific growth rate were the highest at 33 °C and the lowest at 36 °C. The present study revealed that the highest temperature (36 °C) tested here may be hazardous to rohu and the temperature should be kept below 36 °C in the aquaculture setting to avoid physiological damage and growth and production loss to the fish.

Predation avoidance and foraging efficiency contribute to mixed-species shoaling by tropical and temperate fishes

The formation of mixed-species social groups, whereby heterospecifics form and maintain either transient or stable groups with each other, can confer substantial fitness benefits to individuals. Such benefits may arise via multiple mechanisms associated with both predation avoidance and foraging efficiency. In fishes, mixed-species shoaling reportedly occurs where displaced tropical species (known as "vagrants") interact with resident temperate species, although little is known about the nature and frequency of such interactions. To investigate this phenomenon, we used displaced tropical Indo-pacific Sergeant Abudefduf vaigiensis settling in temperate south-eastern Australia as a model system. Underwater visual surveys revealed shoal composition and size differed significantly between open-water and reef habitats, with shoals in open habitats being larger and more speciose. Shoals containing A. vaigiensis were mainly mixed-species, and larger and more speciose in open habitats than nearer to reef. Since both foraging efficiency (via access to plankton) and predation threat likely increase with increasing distance from reef habitat, we suggest that mixed-species shoaling mitigates predation risk whilst allowing increased foraging opportunities for A. vaigiensis in open areas. These findings provide support for the importance of mixed-species shoaling to the persistence of tropical reef fishes in temperate regions.

Climate change, biological invasions, and the shifting distribution of Mediterranean fishes: A large-scale survey based on local ecological knowledge

Climate change and biological invasions are rapidly reshuffling species distribution, restructuring the biological communities of many ecosystems worldwide. Tracking these transformations in the marine environment is crucial, but our understanding of climate change effects and invasive species dynamics is often hampered by the practical challenge of surveying large geographical areas. Here, we focus on the Mediterranean Sea, a hot spot for climate change and biological invasions to investigate recent spatiotemporal changes in fish abundances and distribution. To this end, we accessed the local ecological knowledge (LEK) of small-scale and recreational fishers, reconstructing the dynamics of fish perceived as "new" or increasing in different fishing areas. Over 500 fishers across 95 locations and nine different countries were interviewed, and semiquantitative information on yearly changes in species abundance was collected. Overall, 75 species were mentioned by the respondents, mostly warm-adapted species of both native and exotic origin. Respondents belonging to the same biogeographic sectors described coherent spatial and temporal patterns, and gradients along latitudinal and longitudinal axes were revealed. This information provides a more complete understanding of the shifting distribution of Mediterranean fishes and it also demonstrates that adequately structured LEK methodology might be applied successfully beyond the local scale, across national borders and jurisdictions. Acknowledging this potential through macroregional coordination could pave the way for future large-scale aggregations of individual observations, increasing our potential for integrated monitoring and conservation planning at the regional or even global level. This might help local communities to better understand, manage, and adapt to the ongoing biotic transformations driven by climate change and biological invaders.

The acute and incremental thermal tolerance of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) families under normoxia and mild hypoxia

Given climate change projections, the limited ability of fish reared in sea-cages to behaviourally thermoregulate, and that thermal tolerance may be heritable, studies that examine family-related differences in upper thermal tolerance are quite relevant to the aquaculture industry. Thus, we investigated the upper thermal tolerance of 15 Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) families by challenging them with acute (2 °C h^-1) and incremental (1 °C every 4 days) temperature increases (CT_max and IT_max tests, respectively) under normoxia (~ 100% air saturation) and mild hypoxia (~ 75% air sat.). The cod's CT_max was 22.5 ± 0.1 °C (mean ± S.E.) during normoxia and 21.8 ± 0.1 °C during hypoxia (P < 0.001); and these two CT_max values were significantly correlated across families. In both the normoxic and hypoxic IT_max tests, feed intake fell by ~50% between 17 and 18 °C, and stopped entirely by 21 °C. No mortalities were observed under 20 °C in the normoxic and hypoxic IT_max tests, and the IT_max value was ~21.7 °C in both groups. Differences in the upper thermal tolerance between families were only observed in the CT_max experiment. No correlation was found between the specific growth rate and the CT_max of the families. Further, no correlation existed between CT_max and IT_max. This study is the first to compare the thermal tolerance of fish families to both CT_max and IT_max challenges, and the data: 1) suggest that the Atlantic cod is quite tolerant of acute (i.e., hours) or short-term (i.e., weeks) exposure to high water temperatures (i.e., up to 20 °C); 2) indicate that it might be difficult to select fish with higher IT_max values; and 3) question the relevance of CT_max for selecting fish that are destined for sea-cages where temperatures slowly warm over the summer.

Quantifying multiple pressure interactions affecting populations of a recreationally and commercially important freshwater fish

The expanding human global footprint and growing demand for freshwater have placed tremendous stress on inland aquatic ecosystems. Aichi Target 10 of the Convention on Biological Diversity aims to minimize anthropogenic pressures affecting vulnerable ecosystems, and pressure interactions are increasingly being incorporated into environmental management and climate change adaptation strategies. In this study, we explore how climate change, overfishing, forest disturbance, and invasive species pressures interact to affect inland lake walleye (Sander vitreus) populations. Walleye support subsistence, recreational, and commercial fisheries and are one of most sought-after freshwater fish species in North America. Using data from 444 lakes situated across an area of 475 000 km² in Ontario, Canada, we apply a novel statistical tool, R-INLA, to determine how walleye biomass deficit (carrying capacity-observed biomass) is impacted by multiple pressures. Individually, angling activity and the presence of invasive zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) were positively related to biomass deficits. In combination, zebra mussel presence interacted negatively and antagonistically with angling activity and percentage decrease in watershed mature forest cover. Velocity of climate change in growing degree days above 5°C and decrease in mature forest cover interacted to negatively affect walleye populations. Our study demonstrates how multiple pressure evaluations can be conducted for hundreds of populations to identify influential pressures and vulnerable ecosystems. Understanding pressure interactions is necessary to guide management and climate change adaptation strategies, and achieve global biodiversity targets.

Rapid shifts in distribution and high-latitude persistence of oceanographic habitat revealed using citizen science data from a climate change hotspot

The environmental effects of climate change are predicted to cause distribution shifts in many marine taxa, yet data are often difficult to collect. Quantifying and monitoring species' suitable environmental habitats is a pragmatic approach for assessing changes in species distributions but is underdeveloped for quantifying climate change induced range shifts in marine systems. Specifically, habitat predictions present opportunities for quantifying spatiotemporal distribution changes while accounting for sources of natural climate variation. Here we demonstrate the utility of a marine-based habitat model parameterized using citizen science data and remotely sensed environmental covariates for quantifying shifts in oceanographic habitat suitability over 22 years for a coastal-pelagic fish species in a climate change hotspot. Our analyses account for the effects of natural intra- and interannual climate variability to reveal rapid poleward shifts in core (94.4 km/decade) and poleward edge (108.8 km/decade) oceanographic habitats. Temporal persistence of suitable oceanographic habitat at high latitudes also increased by approximately 3 months over the study period. Our approach demonstrates how marine citizen science data can be used to quantify range shifts, but necessitates shifting focus from species distributions directly, to the distribution of species' environmental habitat preferences.