Moisture-mediated responsiveness of treeline shifts to global warming in the Himalayas

Uppermost global tree elevations are primarily limited by low temperature or insufficient moisture

The impact of anthropogenic global warming has induced significant upward dispersal of trees to higher elevations at alpine treelines. Assessing vertical deviation from current uppermost tree distributions to potential treeline positions is crucial for understanding ecosystem responses to evolving global climate. However, due to data resolution constraints and research scale limitation, comprehending the global pattern of alpine treeline elevations and driving factors remains challenging. This study constructed a comprehensive quasi-observational dataset of uppermost tree distribution across global mountains using Google Earth imagery. Validating the isotherm of mean growing-season air temperature at 6.6 ± 0.3°C as the global indicator of thermal treeline, we found that around two-thirds of uppermost tree distribution records significantly deviated from it. Drought conditions constitute the primary driver in 51% of cases, followed by mountain elevation effect which indicates surface heat (27%). Our analyses underscore the multifaceted determinants of global patterns of alpine treeline, explaining divergent treeline responses to climate warming. Moisture, along with temperature and disturbance, plays the most fundamental roles in understanding global variation of alpine treeline elevation and forecasting alpine treeline response to ongoing global warming.

Climate warming could free cold-adapted trees from C-conservative allocation strategy of storage over growth

Carbon allocation has been fundamental for long-lived trees to survive cold stress at their upper elevation range limit. Although carbon allocation between non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) storage and structural growth is well-documented, it still remains unclear how ongoing climate warming influences these processes, particularly whether these two processes will shift in parallel or respond divergently to warming. Using a combination of an in situ downward-transplant warming experiment and an ex situ chamber warming treatment, we investigated how subalpine fir trees at their upper elevation limit coordinated carbon allocation priority among different sinks (e.g., NSC storage and structural growth) at whole-tree level in response to elevated temperature. We found that transplanted individuals from the upper elevation limit to lower elevations generally induced an increase in specific leaf area, but there was no detected evidence of warming effect on leaf-level saturated photosynthetic rates. Additionally, our results challenged the expectation that climate warming will accelerate structural carbon accumulation while maintaining NSC constant. Instead, individuals favored allocating available carbon to NSC storage over structural growth after 1 year of warming, despite the amplification in total biomass encouraged by both in situ and ex situ experimental warming. Unexpectedly, continued warming drove a regime shift in carbon allocation priority, which was manifested in the increase of NSC storage in synchrony to structural growth enhancement. These findings imply that climate warming would release trees at their cold edge from C-conservative allocation strategy of storage over structural growth. Thus, understanding the strategical regulation of the carbon allocation priority and the distinctive function of carbon sink components is of great implication for predicting tree fate in the future climate warming.

Global distribution and climatic controls of natural mountain treelines

Mountain treelines are thought to be sensitive to climate change. However, how climate impacts mountain treelines is not yet fully understood as treelines may also be affected by other human activities. Here, we focus on "closed-loop" mountain treelines (CLMT) that completely encircle a mountain and are less likely to have been influenced by human land-use change. We detect a total length of ~916,425 km of CLMT across 243 mountain ranges globally and reveal a bimodal latitudinal distribution of treeline elevations with higher treeline elevations occurring at greater distances from the coast. Spatially, we find that temperature is the main climatic driver of treeline elevation in boreal and tropical regions, whereas precipitation drives CLMT position in temperate zones. Temporally, we show that 70% of CLMT have moved upward, with a mean shift rate of 1.2 m/year over the first decade of the 21st century. CLMT are shifting fastest in the tropics (mean of 3.1 m/year), but with greater variability. Our work provides a new mountain treeline database that isolates climate impacts from other anthropogenic pressures, and has important implications for biodiversity, natural resources, and ecosystem adaptation in a changing climate.

Asymmetric effects of daytime and nighttime warming on alpine treeline recruitment

Trees at their upper range limits are highly sensitive to climate change, and thus alpine treelines worldwide have changed their recruitment patterns in response to climate warming. However, previous studies focused only on daily mean temperature, neglecting the asymmetric influences of daytime and nighttime warming on recruitments in alpine treelines. Here, based on the compiled dataset of tree recruitment series from 172 alpine treelines across the Northern Hemisphere, we quantified and compared the different effects of daytime and nighttime warming on treeline recruitment using four indices of temperature sensitivity, and assessed the responses of treeline recruitment to warming-induced drought stress. Our analyses demonstrated that even in different environmental regions, both daytime and nighttime warming could significantly promote treeline recruitment, and however, treeline recruitment was much more sensitive to nighttime warming than to daytime warming, which could be attributable to the presence of drought stress. The increasing drought stress primarily driven by daytime warming rather than by nighttime warming would likely constrain the responses of treeline recruitment to daytime warming. Our findings provided compelling evidence that nighttime warming rather than daytime warming could play a primary role in promoting the recruitment in alpine treelines, which was related to the daytime warming-induced drought stress. Thus, daytime and nighttime warming should be considered separately to improve future projections of global change impacts across alpine ecosystems.

Shrub-mediated effects on soil nitrogen determines shrub-herbaceous interactions in drylands of the Tibetan Plateau

INTRODUCTION

Shrub promotes the survival, growth and reproduction of understory species by buffering the environmental extremes and improving limited resources (i.e., facilitation effect) in arid and semiarid regions. However, the importance of soil water and nutrient availability on shrub facilitation, and its trend along a drought gradient have been relatively less addressed in water-limited systems.

METHODS

We investigated species richness, plant size, soil total nitrogen and dominant grass leaf δ¹³C within and outside the dominant leguminous cushion-like shrub Caragana versicolor along a water deficit gradient in drylands of Tibetan Plateau.

RESULTS

We found that C. versicolor increased grass species richness but had a negative effect on annual and perennial forbs. Along the water deficit gradient, plant interaction assessed by species richness (RII_species) showed a unimodal pattern with shift from increase to decrease, while plant interaction assessed by plant size (RII_size) did not vary significantly. The effect of C. versicolor on soil nitrogen, rather than water availability, determined its overall effect on understory species richness. Neither the effect of C. versicolor on soil nitrogen nor water availability affected plant size.

DISCUSSION

Our study suggests that the drying tendency in association with the recent warming trends observed in drylands of Tibetan Plateau, will likely hinder the facilitation effect of nurse leguminous shrub on understories if moisture availability crosses a critical minimum threshold.

Weak genetic differentiation but strong climate-induced selective pressure toward the rear edge of mountain pine in north-eastern Spain

Local differentiation at distribution limits may influence species' adaptive capacity to environmental changes. However, drivers, such gene flow and local selection, are still poorly understood. We focus on the role played by range limits in mountain forests to test the hypothesis that relict tree populations are subjected to genetic differentiation and local adaptation. Two alpine treelines of mountain pine (Pinus uncinata Ram. ex DC) were investigated in the Spanish Pyrenees. Further, an isolated relict population forming the species' southernmost distribution limit in north-eastern Spain was also investigated. Using genotyping by sequencing, a genetic matrix conformed by single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) was obtained. This matrix was used to perform genotype-environment and genotype-phenotype associations, as well as to model risk of non-adaptedness. Increasing climate seasonality appears as an essential element in the interpretation of SNPs subjected to selective pressures. Genetic differentiations were overall weak. The differences in leaf mass area and radial growth rate, as well as the identification of several SNPs subjected to selective pressures, exceeded neutral predictions of differentiation among populations. Despite genetic drift might prevail in the isolated population, the Fst values (0.060 and 0.066) showed a moderate genetic drift and Nm values (3.939 and 3.555) indicate the presence of gene flow between the relict population and both treelines. Nonetheless, the SNPs subjected to selection pressures provide evidences of possible selection in treeline ecotones. Persistence in range boundaries seems to involve several selective pressures in species' traits, which were significantly related to enhanced drought seasonality at the limit of P. uncinata distribution range. We conclude that gene flow is unlikely to constrain adaptation in the P. uncinata rear edge, although this species shows vulnerability to future climate change scenarios involving warmer and drier conditions.

Possible Consequences of Climate Change on Survival, Productivity and Reproductive Performance, and Welfare of Himalayan Yak (Bos grunniens)

Simple Summary

Climate change is a global issue, with a wide range of ecosystems being affected by changing climatic conditions including the Himalaya. Yak are exquisitely adapted to the high-altitude conditions of the Himalaya and are thus highly likely to be affected by climate change. This paper reviews the evidence of how the reported impacts of climate change on the environment and ecosystem of the Himalaya are affecting the survival, productivity and welfare of Himalayan Yak. This review identified that we do not know how big the impact of climate change is on yak as very few papers have measured that impact and, in many cases, potentially climate-change-related effects (such as changes in feed supply) are principally driven by human factors.

Abstract

Yak are adapted to the extreme cold, low oxygen, and high solar radiation of the Himalaya. Traditionally, they are kept at high altitude pastures during summer, moving lower in the winter. This system is highly susceptible to climate change, which has increased ambient temperatures, altered rainfall patterns and increased the occurrence of natural disasters. Changes in temperature and precipitation reduced the yield and productivity of alpine pastures, principally because the native plant species are being replaced by less useful shrubs and weeds. The impact of climate change on yak is likely to be mediated through heat stress, increased contact with other species, especially domestic cattle, and alterations in feed availability. Yak have a very low temperature humidity index (52 vs. 72 for cattle) and a narrow thermoneutral range (5–13 °C), so climate change has potentially exposed yak to heat stress in summer and winter. Heat stress is likely to affect both reproductive performance and milk production, but we lack the data to quantify such effects. Increased contact with other species, especially domestic cattle, is likely to increase disease risk. This is likely to be exacerbated by other climate-change-associated factors, such as increases in vector-borne disease, because of increases in vector ranges, and overcrowding associated with reduced pasture availability. However, lack of baseline yak disease data means it is difficult to quantify these changes in disease risk and the few papers claiming to have identified such increases do not provide robust evidence of increased diseases. The reduction in feed availability in traditional pastures may be thought to be the most obvious impact of climate change on yak; however, it is clear that such a reduction is not solely due to climate change, with socio-economic factors likely being more important. This review has highlighted the large potential negative impact of climate change on yak, and the lack of data quantifying that impact. More research on the impact of climate change in yak is needed. Attention also needs to be paid to developing mitigating strategies, which may include changes in the traditional system such as providing shelter and supplementary feed and, in marginal areas, increased use of yak–cattle hybrids.

Enhanced habitat loss of the Himalayan endemic flora driven by warming-forced upslope tree expansion

High-elevation trees cannot always reach the thermal treeline, the potential upper range limit set by growing-season temperature. But delineation of the realized upper range limit of trees and quantification of the drivers, which lead to trees being absent from the treeline, is lacking. Here, we used 30 m resolution satellite tree-cover data, validated by more than 0.7 million visual interpretations from Google Earth images, to map the realized range limit of trees along the Himalaya which harbours one of the world's richest alpine endemic flora. The realized range limit of trees is ~800 m higher in the eastern Himalaya than in the western and central Himalaya. Trees had reached their thermal treeline positions in more than 80% of the cases over eastern Himalaya but are absent from the treeline position in western and central Himalaya, due to anthropogenic disturbance and/or premonsoon drought. By combining projections of the deviation of trees from the treeline position due to regional environmental stresses with warming-induced treeline shift, we predict that trees will migrate upslope by ~140 m by the end of the twenty-first century in the eastern Himalaya. This shift will cause the endemic flora to lose at least ~20% of its current habitats, highlighting the necessity to reassess the effectiveness of current conservation networks and policies over the Himalaya.

Heterogeneous Responses of Alpine Treelines to Climate Warming across the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau hosts a continuous distribution of alpine treelines from the Qilian Mountains to the Hengduan Mountains and the Himalaya Mountains. However, not much is known about the broadscale alpine treeline dynamics and their responses to climate warming across the Tibetan Plateau. Herein, we collected a total of 59 treeline sites across different forest regions of the Tibetan Plateau and the related field data (i.e., upward advance magnitude, tree recruitment and height growth), expansion potential (i.e., elevational difference between the current treeline and the tree species line (EP)) and vegetation TI (an index of species interactions) from the published references. Site characteristics (e.g., elevation, slope and aspect) and the related environmental factors were used to analyze the relationships between treeline shifts and environmental variables. Despite increases in the recruitment and growth of trees at most treeline sites, alpine treeline positions showed heterogeneous responses to climate warming. Most treelines advanced over the last century, while some treelines showed long-term stability. EP was significantly and positively linked to the summer warming rate and treeline shifts, suggesting that the position of current tree species line is of crucial importance in evaluating treeline dynamics under climate change. In addition, warming-induced treeline advances were modulated by plant–plant interactions. Overall, this study highlighted the heterogeneous responses of regional-scale alpine treelines to climate warming on the Tibetan Plateau.

El Niño Southern Oscillation, monsoon anomaly, and childhood diarrheal disease morbidity in Nepal

Climate change is adversely impacting the burden of diarrheal diseases. Despite significant reduction in global prevalence, diarrheal disease remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among young children in low- and middle-income countries. Previous studies have shown that diarrheal disease is associated with meteorological conditions but the role of large-scale climate phenomena such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and monsoon anomaly is less understood. We obtained 13 years (2002-2014) of diarrheal disease data from Nepal and investigated how the disease rate is associated with phases of ENSO (El Niño, La Niña, vs. ENSO neutral) monsoon rainfall anomaly (below normal, above normal, vs. normal), and changes in timing of monsoon onset, and withdrawal (early, late, vs. normal). Monsoon season was associated with a 21% increase in diarrheal disease rates (Incident Rate Ratios [IRR]: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.16-1.27). El Niño was associated with an 8% reduction in risk while the La Niña was associated with a 32% increase in under-5 diarrheal disease rates. Likewise, higher-than-normal monsoon rainfall was associated with increased rates of diarrheal disease, with considerably higher rates observed in the mountain region (IRR 1.51, 95% CI: 1.19-1.92). Our findings suggest that under-5 diarrheal disease burden in Nepal is significantly influenced by ENSO and changes in seasonal monsoon dynamics. Since both ENSO phases and monsoon can be predicted with considerably longer lead time compared to weather, our findings will pave the way for the development of more effective early warning systems for climate sensitive infectious diseases.

Tree-Ring Oxygen Isotope Variations in Subalpine Firs from the Western Himalaya Capture Spring Season Temperature Signals

We analyzed the tree-rings δ18O of Abies spectabilis (fir) growing at the subalpine treeline ecotone in the Magguchatti valley. The valley is located in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) dominated region of western Himalaya and also receives snow precipitation derived by westerly disturbances (WDs) during the winter months. The 60 year developed (1960–2019 CE) tree-ring δ18O chronology revealed a strong positive correlation with the temperature of late winter and spring months (February to April). Strong negative correlations are also apparent for snowcover, soilmoisture, and relative humidity for the same spring season. Our findings partly contrast the significant correlation results of tree-ring δ18O with summer precipitation and drought indices recorded from other summer monsoon-dominated regions in the Himalayas. The spatial correlation analyses with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and climate parameters showed subdued signals of tropical Pacific at the site, but with a shift to more moisture influx from the Arabian Sea during the last two decades. Moreover, a significant negative correlation with North Atlantic Oscillation further justifies the strongly captured spring temperature and snowcover signals and the weak effect of summer precipitation in fir trees. A temperature rising trend during the latter half of the 20th century and the elevation effect are taken as important factors controlling the moisture source at the treeline ecotone zones.

Contrasting plant responses to multivariate environmental variations among species with divergent elevation shifts

The general predictions of climate impacts on species shifts (e.g., upward shift) cannot directly inform local species conservation, because local-scale studies find divergent patterns instead of a general one. For example, our previous study found three shift patterns with elevation (strong down-, moderate down-, and up-slope shifts) in temperate mountain forests. The divergent shifts are hypothesized to arise from both multivariate environmental variations with elevation and corresponding species-specific responses. To test this hypothesis, we sampled soils and leaves to measure elevation variations in soil conditions and determined plant responses using discriminations against heavier isotopes, carbon (¹³ C) and nitrogen (¹⁵ N). Functional traits of the species studied were also extracted from a public trait dataset. We found that: (1) With low soil water contents at low elevations, only the leaves of up-shifters had lower ¹³ C discriminations at low vs. high elevations; (2) With low soil P contents at high elevations, only the leaves of moderate down-shifters had higher ¹⁵ N discriminations at high vs. low elevations; (3) The leaves of strong down-shifters did not show significant elevation patterns of the discriminations; (4) The contrasting responses among the three types of shifters agree with their functional dissimilarity, suggested by their separate locations in a multitrait space. Taken together, the divergent shifts are associated with the elevation variations in environmental conditions and contrasting plant responses. The contrasting responses could result from the functional dissimilarity among species. Therefore, a detailed understanding of both local environmental variations and species-specific responses can facilitate accurate predictions of species shifts to inform local species conservation.

Branch water uptake and redistribution in two conifers at the alpine treeline

During winter, conifers at the alpine treeline suffer dramatic losses of hydraulic conductivity, which are successfully recovered during late winter. Previous studies indicated branch water uptake to support hydraulic recovery. We analyzed water absorption and redistribution in Picea abies and Larix decidua growing at the treeline by in situ exposure of branches to δ2H-labelled water. Both species suffered high winter embolism rates (> 40-60% loss of conductivity) and recovered in late winter (< 20%). Isotopic analysis showed water to be absorbed over branches and redistributed within the crown during late winter. Labelled water was redistributed over 425 ± 5 cm within the axes system and shifted to the trunk, lower and higher branches (tree height 330 ± 40 cm). This demonstrated relevant branch water uptake and re-distribution in treeline conifers. The extent of water absorption and re-distribution was species-specific, with L. decidua showing higher rates. In natura, melting snow might be the prime source for absorbed and redistributed water, enabling embolism repair and restoration of water reservoirs prior to the vegetation period. Pronounced water uptake in the deciduous L. decidua indicated bark to participate in the process of water absorption.

Opposite Tree-Tree Interactions Jointly Drive the Natural Fir Treeline Population on the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

The long-term stability of alpine treeline positions and increased stem density are frequently reported by recent studies; however, whether a denser treeline forest is relevant to competitive tree–tree interactions remain unclear. Herein, we mapped and surveyed individual trees in two undisturbed Smith fir (Abies georgei var. smithii) treeline plots (with a size: 30 m × 200 m; plot NE1: 4477 m, NE2: 4451 m) near Ranwu Lake (RW) on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The surface pattern method and spatial point pattern analysis were used to detect the spatial distribution patterns of three size classes (seedlings, juveniles, adults) and spatial associations between the pairwise size classes. We also compared our results to the spatial patterns of the five other treeline forests (Deqin, Linzhi, Changdu, Yushu, Aba) reported from the Tibetan Plateau. Young trees dominated the two fir treeline plots. Both positive and negative spatial autocorrelations for all of the trees were detected in two study plots. Intraspecific facilitation and competition coexisted at the fir treelines in three forest regions (RW, Linzhi, Aba) characterized by a mild moist climate, whereas intraspecific facilitation dominated the other three forest regions (Changdu, Deqin, Yushu), which featured seasonal climatic stress or high disturbance pressure. Thus, increased stem density at alpine treeline can be linked to competitive interactions in relatively favorable environmental conditions. Overall, the spatial patterns of the treeline population are mainly shaped by the combination of thermal and moisture conditions and are also modulated by non-climatic variables (e.g., disturbance history and microtopography).

Tree growth and treeline responses to temperature: Different questions and concepts

Climate warming is expected to enhance tree growth at alpine treelines. A higher growth rate is forecasted as temperatures rise and growth becomes less dependent on the temperature rise. Since radial growth is just one component of treeline dynamics those forecasts do not necessarily apply to treeline elevation or latitude; treelines can shift upward or poleward or remain stable.

Global fading of the temperature-growth coupling at alpine and polar treelines

Climate warming is expected to positively alter upward and poleward treelines which are controlled by low temperature and a short growing season. Despite the importance of treelines as a bioassay of climate change, a global field assessment and posterior forecasting of tree growth at annual scales is lacking. Using annually resolved tree-ring data located across Eurasia and the Americas, we quantified and modeled the relationship between temperature and radial growth at treeline during the 20th century. We then tested whether this temperature-growth association will remain stable during the 21st century using a forward model under two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). During the 20th century, growth enhancements were common in most sites, and temperature and growth showed positive trends. Interestingly, the relationship between temperature and growth trends was contingent on tree age suggesting biogeographic patterns in treeline growth are contingent on local factors besides climate warming. Simulations forecast temperature-growth decoupling during the 21st century. The growing season at treeline is projected to lengthen and growth rates would increase and become less dependent on temperature rise. These forecasts illustrate how growth may decouple from climate warming in cold regions and near the margins of tree existence. Such projected temperature-growth decoupling could impact ecosystem processes in mountain and polar biomes, with feedbacks on climate warming.

Xylem anatomy needs to change, so that conductivity can stay the same: xylem adjustments across elevation and latitude in Nothofagus pumilio

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Plants have the potential to adjust the configuration of their hydraulic system to maintain its function across spatial and temporal gradients. Species with wide environmental niches provide an ideal framework to assess intraspecific xylem adjustments to contrasting climates. We aimed to assess how xylem structure in the widespread species Nothofagus pumilio varies across combined gradients of temperature and moisture, and to what extent within-individual variation contributes to population responses across environmental gradients.

METHODS

We characterized xylem configuration in branches of N. pumilio trees at five sites across an 18° latitudinal gradient in the Chilean Andes, sampling at four elevations per site. We measured vessel area, vessel density and the degree of vessel grouping. We also obtained vessel diameter distributions and estimated the xylem-specific hydraulic conductivity. Xylem traits were studied in the last five growth rings to account for within-individual variation.

KEY RESULTS

Xylem traits responded to changes in temperature and moisture, but also to their combination. Reductions in vessel diameter and increases in vessel density suggested increased safety levels with lower temperatures at higher elevation. Vessel grouping also increased under cold and dry conditions, but changes in vessel diameter distributions across the elevational gradient were site-specific. Interestingly, the estimated xylem-specific hydraulic conductivity remained constant across elevation and latitude, and an overwhelming proportion of the variance of xylem traits was due to within-individual responses to year-to-year climatic fluctuations, rather than to site conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite conspicuous adjustments, xylem traits were coordinated to maintain a constant hydraulic function under a wide range of conditions. This, combined with the within-individual capacity for responding to year-to-year climatic variations, may have the potential to increase forest resilience against future environmental changes.

Long-term physiological and growth responses of Himalayan fir to environmental change are mediated by mean climate

High-elevation forests are experiencing high rates of warming, in combination with CO₂ rise and (sometimes) drying trends. In these montane systems, the effects of environmental changes on tree growth are also modified by elevation itself, thus complicating our ability to predict effects of future climate change. Tree-ring analysis along an elevation gradient allows quantifying effects of gradual and annual environmental changes. Here, we study long-term physiological (ratio of internal to ambient CO₂ , i.e., C_i /C_a and intrinsic water-use efficiency, iWUE) and growth responses (tree-ring width) of Himalayan fir (Abies spectabilis) trees in response to warming, drying, and CO₂ rise. Our study was conducted along elevational gradients in a dry and a wet region in the central Himalaya. We combined dendrochronology and stable carbon isotopes (δ¹³ C) to quantify long-term trends in C_i /C_a ratio and iWUE (δ¹³ C-derived), growth (mixed-effects models), and evaluate climate sensitivity (correlations). We found that iWUE increased over time at all elevations, with stronger increase in the dry region. Climate-growth relations showed growth-limiting effects of spring moisture (dry region) and summer temperature (wet region), and negative effects of temperature (dry region). We found negative growth trends at lower elevations (dry and wet regions), suggesting that continental-scale warming and regional drying reduced tree growth. This interpretation is supported by δ¹³ C-derived long-term physiological responses, which are consistent with responses to reduced moisture and increased vapor pressure deficit. At high elevations (wet region), we found positive growth trends, suggesting that warming has favored tree growth in regions where temperature most strongly limits growth. At lower elevations (dry and wet regions), the positive effects of CO₂ rise did not mitigate the negative effects of warming and drying on tree growth. Our results raise concerns on the productivity of Himalayan fir forests at low and middle (<3,300 m) elevations as climate change progresses.

Early Evidence of Shifts in Alpine Summit Vegetation: A Case Study From Kashmir Himalaya

Under the contemporary climate change, the Himalaya is reported to be warming at a much higher rate than the global average. However, little is known about the alpine vegetation responses to recent climate change in the rapidly warming Himalaya. Here we studied vegetation dynamics on alpine summits in Kashmir Himalaya in relation to in situ measured microclimate. The summits, representing an elevation gradient from treeline to nival zone (3530-3740 m), were first surveyed in 2014 and then re-surveyed in 2018. The initial survey showed that the species richness, vegetation cover and soil temperature decreased with increasing elevation. Species richness and soil temperature differed significantly among slopes, with east and south slopes showing higher values than north and west slopes. The re-survey showed that species richness increased on the lower three summits but decreased on the highest summit (nival zone) and also revealed a substantial increase in the cover of dominant shrubs, graminoids, and forbs. The nestedness-resultant dissimilarity, rather than species turnover, contributed more to the magnitude of β-diversity among the summits. High temporal species turnover was found on south and east aspects, while high nestedness was recorded along north and west aspects. Thermophilization was more pronounced on the lower two summits and along the northern aspects. Our study provides crucial scientific data on climate change impacts on the alpine vegetation of Kashmir Himalaya. This information will fill global knowledge gaps from the developing world.

Remotely-Sensed Identification of a Transition for the Two Ecosystem States Along the Elevation Gradient: A Case Study of Xinjiang Tianshan Bogda World Heritage Site

The alpine treeline, as an ecological transition zone between montane coniferous forests and alpine meadows (two ecosystem states), is a research hotspot of global ecology and climate change. Quantitative identification of its elevation range can efficiently capture the results of the interaction between climate change and vegetation. Digital extraction and extensive analysis in such a critical elevation range crucially depend on the ability of monitoring ecosystem variables and the suitability of the experimental model, which are often restricted by the weak intersection of disciplines and the spatial-temporal continuity of the data. In this study, the existence of two states was confirmed by frequency analysis and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) as well as the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) indices. The elevation range of a transition for the two ecosystem states on the northern slope of the Bogda was identified by the potential analysis. The results showed that the elevation range of co-occurrence for the two ecosystem states was 2690–2744 m. At the elevation of 2714 m, the high land surface temperature (LST) state started to exhibit more attraction than the low LST state. This elevation value was considered as a demarcation where abrupt shifts between the two states occurred with the increase of elevation. The identification results were validated by a field survey and unmanned aerial vehicle data. Progress has been made in the transition identification for the ecosystem states along the elevation gradient in mountainous areas by combining the remotely-sensed index with a potential analysis. This study also provided a reference for obtaining the elevation of the alpine tree line quickly and accurately.

Strong link between large tropical volcanic eruptions and severe droughts prior to monsoon in the central Himalayas revealed by tree-ring records

Large tropical volcanic eruptions can cause short-term global cooling. However, little is known whether large tropical volcanic eruptions, like the one in Tambora/Indonesia in 1815, cause regional hydroclimatic anomalies. Using a tree-ring network of precisely dated Himalayan birch in the central Himalayas, we reconstructed variations in the regional pre-monsoon precipitation back to 1650 CE. A superposed epoch analysis indicates that the pre-monsoon regional droughts are associated with large tropical volcanic eruptions, appearing to have a strong influence on hydroclimatic conditions in the central Himalayas. In fact, the most severe drought since 1650 CE occurred after the Tambora eruption. These results suggest that dry conditions prior to monsoon in the central Himalayas were associated with explosive tropical volcanism. Prolonged La Niña events also correspond with persistent pre-monsoon droughts in the central Himalayas. Our results provide evidence that large tropical volcanic eruptions most likely induced severe droughts prior to monsoon in the central Himalayas.

Plant endemism in the Nepal Himalayas and phytogeographical implications

Nepal is located in the central part of the greater Himalayan range with a unique series of mountain chains formed by recent mountain building geological events. As one of the youngest mountains in the world it contributes to diversity of plants and also provided barriers to and corridors through which plants migrated during the ice ages. The higher altitudinal variation with the high mountains, deep river valleys and lowland plains combine with the effects of the summer monsoon and dry winter result with an extraordinary diversity of ecosystems including flora and fauna in a relatively small land area. The existing checklists for Nepal record some 6000 species of flowering plants and about 530 ferns. However, the botanical experts estimate that numbers may go up to 7000 when the poorly known remote regions are fully explored. The information on plant endemism in Nepal Himalaya is not adequately known as Nepal is still struggling to complete long awaited Flora of Nepal project. Endemic species are confined to specific areas and are the first to be affected by land use and other global changes. We sought to explore the spatial distribution of endemic plant species in Nepal in relation to the consequences associated with climatic and geologic changes over time in the region with the help of published literature. It was found that the endemism showed marked spatial variation between open moist habitat and dry inner valleys, the former with higher endemism. The updated records showed 312 flowering plant species to be endemic to Nepal with higher endemism around the elevation of 3800-4200 m at sea level. The recent human population explosion, intensified deforestation, habitat fragmentation and modern day environmental changes are posing greater threats to endemic plant in Nepal. The conservation status and threats to these peculiar species are unknown. Nevertheless, environmental degradation and high poverty rates create a potent mix of threats to biodiversity in this landscape.

Persistence of balsam fir and black spruce populations in the mixedwood and coniferous bioclimatic domain of eastern North America

The boreal ecocline (ca 49°N) between the southern mixedwood (dominated by balsam fir) and the northern coniferous bioclimatic domain (dominated by black spruce) may be explained by a northward decrease of balsam fir regeneration, explaining the gradual shift to black spruce dominance. 7,010 sample plots, with absence of major disturbances, were provided by the Quebec Ministry of Forest, Fauna, and Parks. The regeneration (sapling abundance) of balsam fir and black spruce were compared within and between the two bioclimatic domains, accounting for parental trees, main soil type (clay and till) and climate conditions, reflected by summer growing degree-days above 5°C (GDD_5), total summer precipitation (May-August; PP_MA). Parental trees and soil type determined balsam fir and black spruce regeneration. Balsam fir and black spruce, respectively, showed higher regeneration in the mixedwood and the coniferous bioclimatic domains. Overall, higher regeneration was obtained on till for balsam fir, and on clay soils for black spruce. GDD_5 and PP_MA were beneficial for balsam fir regeneration on clay and till soils, respectively, while they were detrimental for black spruce regeneration. At a population level, balsam fir required at least 28% of parental tree basal area in the mixedwood, and 38% in the coniferous bioclimatic domains to maintain a regeneration at least equal to the mean regeneration of the whole study area. However, black spruce required 82% and 79% of parental trees basal area in the mixedwood and the coniferous domains, respectively. The northern limit of the mixedwood bioclimatic domain was attributed to a gradual decrease toward the north of balsam fir regeneration most likely due to cooler temperatures, shorter growing seasons, and decrease of the parental trees further north of this northern limit. However, balsam fir still persists above this northern limit, owing to a patchy occurrence of small parental trees populations, and good establishment substrates.

An Analysis of Land Surface Temperature Trends in the Central Himalayan Region Based on MODIS Products

The scientific community has widely reported the impacts of climate change on the Central Himalaya. To qualify and quantify these effects, long-term land surface temperature observations in both the daytime and nighttime, acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer from 2000 to 2017, were used in this study to investigate the spatiotemporal variations and their changing mechanism. Two periodic parameters, the mean annual surface temperature (MAST) and the annual maximum temperature (MAXT), were derived based on an annual temperature cycle model to reduce the influences from the cloud cover and were used to analyze their trend during the period. The general thermal environment represented by the average MAST indicated a significant spatial distribution pattern along with the elevation gradient. Behind the clear differences in the daytime and nighttime temperatures at different physiographical regions, the trend test conducted with the Mann-Kendall (MK) method showed that most of the areas with significant changes showed an increasing trend, and the nighttime temperatures exhibited a more significant increasing trend than the daytime temperatures, for both the MAST and MAXT, according to the changing areas. The nighttime changing areas were more widely distributed (more than 28%) than the daytime changing areas (around 10%). The average change rates of the MAST and MAXT in the daytime are 0.102 °C/yr and 0.190 °C/yr, and they are generally faster than those in the nighttime (0.048 °C/yr and 0.091 °C/yr, respectively). The driving force analysis suggested that urban expansion, shifts in the courses of lowland rivers, and the retreat of both the snow and glacier cover presented strong effects on the local thermal environment, in addition to the climatic warming effect. Moreover, the strong topographic gradient greatly influenced the change rate and evidenced a significant elevation-dependent warming effect, especially for the nighttime LST. Generally, this study suggested that the nighttime temperature was more sensitive to climate change than the daytime temperature, and this general warming trend clearly observed in the central Himalayan region could have important influences on local geophysical, hydrological, and ecological processes.