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Xu B, Wu X. A comprehensive analysis to optimizing national-scale protected area systems under climate change. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 363:121408. [PMID: 38852411 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121408] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2024] [Revised: 06/04/2024] [Accepted: 06/05/2024] [Indexed: 06/11/2024]
Abstract
With the intensification of climate change, incorporating climate information into protected areas planning has become crucial in reducing biodiversity loss. However, the current natural reserve system in China does not take climate information into account. Therefore, we assessed the effectiveness of existing protected areas through climate refuge and connectivity rankings, and Zonation software was used to identify the ecological priority zone in China by combining climate indicators and human footprint. The results show that the current natural protected areas in China have certain limitations in dealing with climate change, and some protected areas may struggle to maintain their value in biodiversity conservation under climate change. Moreover, China still has lots of important areas that can maintain biodiversity under climate change, but most of them are not covered by protected areas. The results provide support for the planning of China's nature protected area system in response to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bo Xu
- College of Horticulture and Forestry Sciences, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, China
| | - Xuefei Wu
- College of Horticulture and Forestry Sciences, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, China.
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2
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Han Q, Li M, Keeffe G. Can large-scale tree planting in China compensate for the loss of climate connectivity due to deforestation? THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 927:172350. [PMID: 38608907 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172350] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2024] [Revised: 04/01/2024] [Accepted: 04/08/2024] [Indexed: 04/14/2024]
Abstract
Extensive deforestation has been a major reason for the loss of forest connectivity, impeding species range shifts under current climate change. Over the past decades, the Chinese government launched a series of afforestation and reforestation projects to increase forest cover, yet whether the new forests can compensate for the loss of connectivity due to deforestation-and where future tree planting would be most effective-remains largely unknown. Here, we evaluate changes in climate connectivity across China's forests between 2015 and 2019. We find that China's large-scale tree planting alleviated the negative impacts of forest loss on climate connectivity, improving the extent and probability of climate connectivity by 0-0.2 °C and 0-0.03, respectively. The improvements were particularly obvious for species with short dispersal distances (i.e., 3 km and 10 km). Nevertheless, only ~55 % of the trees planted in this period could serve as stepping stones for species movement. This indicates that focusing solely on the quantitative target of forest coverage without considering the connectivity of forests may miss opportunities in tree planting to facilitate climate-induced range shifts. More attention should be paid to the spatial arrangement of tree plantations and their potential as stepping stones. We then identify priority areas for future tree planting to create effective stepping stones. Our study highlights the potential of large-scale tree planting to facilitate range shifts. Future tree-planting efforts should incorporate the need for species range shifts to achieve more biodiversity conservation benefits under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qiyao Han
- Department of Landscape Architecture, Nanjing Agricultural University, China.
| | - Ming Li
- Institute of Geodesy and Photogrammetry, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Greg Keeffe
- School of Natural and Built Environment, Queen's University Belfast, UK
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3
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Liang J, Wang W, Cai Q, Li X, Zhu Z, Zhai Y, Li X, Gao X, Yi Y. Prioritizing conservation efforts based on future habitat availability and accessibility under climate change. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2024; 38:e14204. [PMID: 37855159 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14204] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2022] [Revised: 09/17/2023] [Accepted: 10/09/2023] [Indexed: 10/20/2023]
Abstract
The potential for species to shift their ranges to avoid extinction is contingent on the future availability and accessibility of habitats with analogous climates. To develop conservation strategies, many previous researchers used a single method that considered individual factors; a few combined 2 factors. Primarily, these studies focused on identifying climate refugia or climatically connected and spatially fixed areas, ignoring the range shifting process of animals. We quantified future habitat availability (based on species occurrence, climate data, land cover, and elevation) and accessibility (based on climate velocity) under climate change (4 scenarios) of migratory birds across the Yangtze River basin (YRB). Then, we assessed species' range-shift potential and identified conservation priority areas for migratory birds in the 2050s with a network analysis. Our results suggested that medium (i.e., 5-10 km/year) and high (i.e., ≥ 10 km/year) climate velocity would threaten 18.65% and 8.37% of stable habitat, respectively. Even with low (i.e., 0-5 km/year) climate velocity, 50.15% of climate-velocity-identified destinations were less available than their source habitats. Based on our integration of habitat availability and accessibility, we identified a few areas of critical importance for conservation, mainly in Sichuan and the middle to lower reaches of the YRB. Overall, we identified the differences between habitat availability and accessibility in capturing biological responses to climate change. More importantly, we accounted for the dynamic process of species' range shifts, which must be considered to identify conservation priority areas. Our method informs forecasting of climate-driven distribution shifts and conservation priorities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jie Liang
- College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control (Hunan University), Ministry of Education, Changsha, P.R. China
| | - Wanting Wang
- College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control (Hunan University), Ministry of Education, Changsha, P.R. China
| | - Qing Cai
- Hunan Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Changsha, P.R. China
| | - Xin Li
- College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control (Hunan University), Ministry of Education, Changsha, P.R. China
| | - Ziqian Zhu
- College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control (Hunan University), Ministry of Education, Changsha, P.R. China
| | - Yeqing Zhai
- College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control (Hunan University), Ministry of Education, Changsha, P.R. China
| | - Xiaodong Li
- College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control (Hunan University), Ministry of Education, Changsha, P.R. China
| | - Xiang Gao
- College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control (Hunan University), Ministry of Education, Changsha, P.R. China
| | - Yuru Yi
- College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control (Hunan University), Ministry of Education, Changsha, P.R. China
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4
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McCullough IM, Beirne C, Soto-Navarro C, Whitworth A. Mapping climate adaptation corridors for biodiversity-A regional-scale case study in Central America. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0304756. [PMID: 38820545 PMCID: PMC11142673 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0304756] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2024] [Accepted: 05/18/2024] [Indexed: 06/02/2024] Open
Abstract
Climate adaptation corridors are widely recognized as important for promoting biodiversity resilience under climate change. Central America is part of the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot, but there have been no regional-scale analyses of potential climate adaptation corridors in Central America. We identified 2375 potential corridors throughout Central America that link lowland protected areas (≤ 500 m) with intact, high-elevation forests (≥ 1500 m) that represent potential climate change refugia. Whereas we found potential corridors in all Central American countries, potential corridors in Panama, Belize, and Honduras were most protected (medians = 64%, 49%, and 47%, respectively) and potential corridors in El Salvador were least protected (median = 10%). We also developed a corridor priority index based on the ecological characteristics and protected status of potential corridors and their associated start and end points. Compared to low- and medium-priority corridors, high-priority corridors (n = 160; top 7% of all corridors) were generally more protected, forested, and distributed across wider elevational gradients and more Key Biodiversity Areas, but also generally linked larger lowland protected areas to target areas that were larger, more protected, and spanned wider elevational gradients. For example, based on median values, high-priority corridors were 9% more protected and overlapped with 2-3 more Key Biodiversity Areas than low- and medium-priority corridors. Although high-elevation targets spanned considerably wider elevational gradients than lowland protected areas (medians = 695 vs. 142 m, respectively) and thus may be more likely to support refugia, they were considerably smaller than lowland protected areas (medians = 11 vs. 50 km2 respectively) and mostly unprotected (median = 4% protection). This initial, regional assessment can help prioritize locations for finer-scale research, conservation, and restoration activities in support of climate adaptation corridors throughout Central America and highlights the need for greater conservation of potential high-elevation refugia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ian M. McCullough
- Osa Conservation, Washington, DC, United States of America
- Osa Conservation Campus, Puntarenas, Costa Rica
| | - Christopher Beirne
- Osa Conservation, Washington, DC, United States of America
- Osa Conservation Campus, Puntarenas, Costa Rica
| | - Carolina Soto-Navarro
- Osa Conservation, Washington, DC, United States of America
- Osa Conservation Campus, Puntarenas, Costa Rica
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Andrew Whitworth
- Osa Conservation, Washington, DC, United States of America
- Osa Conservation Campus, Puntarenas, Costa Rica
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom
- Department of Biology, Center for Energy, Environment and Sustainability, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, NC, United States of America
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5
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Li Y, Jin Q, Chen Z, Yin B, Li Y, Liu J. Pathways for achieving conservation targets under metacoupled anthropogenic disturbances. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 353:120227. [PMID: 38310798 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120227] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2023] [Revised: 01/09/2024] [Accepted: 01/24/2024] [Indexed: 02/06/2024]
Abstract
Enhancing connectivity between protected areas stands as a paramount objective in advancing global conservation goals, particularly in coastal regions grappling with escalating human disruptions. However, little attention has been given to quantitative assessment of human-nature interactions within and among protected areas. Here, we endeavored to model the connectivity between protected areas in rapidly urbanizing regions in China, drawing on insights from the framework of metacoupling based on connected corridors at short and long distances. In alignment with the overarching global conservation aim of increasing the overall coverage of protected areas, we found that adding new site to the protected area system yields superior connectivity gains compared to merely expanding the boundaries of the existing sites. Within the connectivity network between protected areas, we discerned specific sites acting as stepping stones, pivotal in enhancing connectivity among the chosen protected areas. Our study propounds a pragmatic methodology for prioritizing local protection initiatives and underscores the criticality of incorporating connectivity conservation strategies. This approach is vital for attaining regional biodiversity targets, given the dual perspective encompassing both human activities and the natural environment, particularly in the face of mounting anthropogenic disturbances.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yi Li
- Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory for Coastal Ecology and Environmental Studies, Key Laboratory of Coastal and Wetland Ecosystems (Ministry of Education), College of the Environment and Ecology, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China.
| | - Qihao Jin
- Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory for Coastal Ecology and Environmental Studies, Key Laboratory of Coastal and Wetland Ecosystems (Ministry of Education), College of the Environment and Ecology, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China.
| | - Zhixue Chen
- Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory for Coastal Ecology and Environmental Studies, Key Laboratory of Coastal and Wetland Ecosystems (Ministry of Education), College of the Environment and Ecology, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China.
| | - Bingchao Yin
- Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory for Coastal Ecology and Environmental Studies, Key Laboratory of Coastal and Wetland Ecosystems (Ministry of Education), College of the Environment and Ecology, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China.
| | - Yangfan Li
- Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory for Coastal Ecology and Environmental Studies, Key Laboratory of Coastal and Wetland Ecosystems (Ministry of Education), College of the Environment and Ecology, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China.
| | - Jianguo Liu
- Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Center for Systems Integration and Sustainability, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA.
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6
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Zeng Y, Senior RA, Crawford CL, Wilcove DS. Gaps and weaknesses in the global protected area network for safeguarding at-risk species. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2023; 9:eadg0288. [PMID: 37267362 PMCID: PMC10413669 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adg0288] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2022] [Accepted: 05/01/2023] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Protected areas are essential to biodiversity conservation. Creating new parks can protect larger populations and more species, yet strengthening existing parks, particularly those vulnerable to harmful human activities, is a critical but underappreciated step for safeguarding at-risk species. Here, we model the area of habitat that terrestrial mammals, amphibians, and birds have within park networks and their vulnerability to current downgrading, downsizing, or degazettement events and future land-use change. We find that roughly 70% of species analyzed have scant representation in parks, or occur within parks that are affected by shifts in formal legal protections or are vulnerable to increased human pressures. Our results also show that expanding and strengthening park networks across just 1% of the world's land area could preserve irreplaceable habitats of 1191 species that are particularly vulnerable to extinction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yiwen Zeng
- Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Rebecca A. Senior
- Conservation Ecology Group, Department of Biosciences, Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE, UK
| | - Christopher L. Crawford
- Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - David S. Wilcove
- Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
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7
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Parks SA, Holsinger LM, Abatzoglou JT, Littlefield CE, Zeller KA. Protected areas not likely to serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:2681-2696. [PMID: 36880282 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16629] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2022] [Revised: 01/13/2023] [Accepted: 01/23/2023] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
Species across the planet are shifting their ranges to track suitable climate conditions in response to climate change. Given that protected areas have higher quality habitat and often harbor higher levels of biodiversity compared to unprotected lands, it is often assumed that protected areas can serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts. However, there are several factors that may impede successful range shifts among protected areas, including the distance that must be traveled, unfavorable human land uses and climate conditions along potential movement routes, and lack of analogous climates. Through a species-agnostic lens, we evaluate these factors across the global terrestrial protected area network as measures of climate connectivity, which is defined as the ability of a landscape to facilitate or impede climate-induced movement. We found that over half of protected land area and two-thirds of the number of protected units across the globe are at risk of climate connectivity failure, casting doubt on whether many species can successfully undergo climate-induced range shifts among protected areas. Consequently, protected areas are unlikely to serve as steppingstones for a large number of species under a warming climate. As species disappear from protected areas without commensurate immigration of species suited to the emerging climate (due to climate connectivity failure), many protected areas may be left with a depauperate suite of species under climate change. Our findings are highly relevant given recent pledges to conserve 30% of the planet by 2030 (30 × 30), underscore the need for innovative land management strategies that allow for species range shifts, and suggest that assisted colonization may be necessary to promote species that are adapted to the emerging climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sean A Parks
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Lisa M Holsinger
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - John T Abatzoglou
- Management of Complex Systems, University of California Merced, Merced, California, USA
| | | | - Katherine A Zeller
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA
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8
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Pither R, O’Brien P, Brennan A, Hirsh-Pearson K, Bowman J. Predicting areas important for ecological connectivity throughout Canada. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0281980. [PMID: 36812251 PMCID: PMC9946242 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0281980] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2022] [Accepted: 02/05/2023] [Indexed: 02/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Governments around the world have acknowledged that urgent action is needed to conserve and restore ecological connectivity to help reverse the decline of biodiversity. In this study we tested the hypothesis that functional connectivity for multiple species can be estimated across Canada using a single, upstream connectivity model. We developed a movement cost layer with cost values assigned using expert opinion to anthropogenic land cover features and natural features based on their known and assumed effects on the movement of terrestrial, non-volant fauna. We used Circuitscape to conduct an omnidirectional connectivity analysis for terrestrial landscapes, in which the potential contribution of all landscape elements to connectivity were considered and where source and destination nodes were independent of land tenure. Our resulting map of mean current density provided a seamless estimate of movement probability at a 300 m resolution across Canada. We tested predictions in our map using a variety of independently collected wildlife data. We found that GPS data for individual caribou, wolves, moose, and elk that traveled longer distances in western Canada were all significantly correlated with areas of high current densities. The frequency of moose roadkill in New Brunswick was also positively associated with current density, but our map was not able to predict areas of high road mortality for herpetofauna in southern Ontario. The results demonstrate that an upstream modelling approach can be used to characterize functional connectivity for multiple species across a large study area. Our national connectivity map can help governments in Canada prioritize land management decisions to conserve and restore connectivity at both national and regional scales.
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Affiliation(s)
- Richard Pither
- National Wildlife Research Centre, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, Canada
- * E-mail: (RP); (JB)
| | - Paul O’Brien
- Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Peterborough, Canada
| | - Angela Brennan
- Interdisciplinary Biodiversity Solutions Program, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Kristen Hirsh-Pearson
- Conservation Solutions Lab, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, Canada
| | - Jeff Bowman
- Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Peterborough, Canada
- Trent University, Peterborough, Canada
- * E-mail: (RP); (JB)
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9
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Kerner JM, Krauss J, Maihoff F, Bofinger L, Classen A. Alpine butterflies want to fly high: Species and communities shift upwards faster than their host plants. Ecology 2023; 104:e3848. [PMID: 36366785 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3848] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2022] [Revised: 07/02/2022] [Accepted: 07/06/2022] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
Despite sometimes strong codependencies of insect herbivores and plants, the responses of individual taxa to accelerating climate change are typically studied in isolation. For this reason, biotic interactions that potentially limit species in tracking their preferred climatic niches are ignored. Here, we chose butterflies as a prominent representative of herbivorous insects to investigate the impacts of temperature changes and their larval host plant distributions along a 1.4-km elevational gradient in the German Alps. Following a sampling protocol of 2009, we revisited 33 grassland plots in 2019 over an entire growing season. We quantified changes in butterfly abundance and richness by repeated transect walks on each plot and disentangled the direct and indirect effects of locally assessed temperature, site management, and larval and adult food resource availability on these patterns. Additionally, we determined elevational range shifts of butterflies and host plants at both the community and species level. Comparing the two sampled years (2009 and 2019), we found a severe decline in butterfly abundance and a clear upward shift of butterflies along the elevational gradient. We detected shifts in the peak of species richness, community composition, and at the species level, whereby mountainous species shifted particularly strongly. In contrast, host plants showed barely any change, neither in connection with species richness nor individual species shifts. Further, temperature and host plant richness were the main drivers of butterfly richness, with change in temperature best explaining the change in richness over time. We concluded that host plants were not yet hindering butterfly species and communities from shifting upwards. However, the mismatch between butterfly and host plant shifts might become a problem for this very close plant-herbivore relationship, especially toward higher elevations, if butterflies fail to adapt to new host plants. Further, our results support the value of conserving traditional extensive pasture use as a promoter of host plant and, hence, butterfly richness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Janika M Kerner
- Department of Animal Ecology and Tropical Biology, Biocenter, University of Würzburg, Würzburg, Germany
| | - Jochen Krauss
- Department of Animal Ecology and Tropical Biology, Biocenter, University of Würzburg, Würzburg, Germany
| | - Fabienne Maihoff
- Department of Animal Ecology and Tropical Biology, Biocenter, University of Würzburg, Würzburg, Germany
| | | | - Alice Classen
- Department of Animal Ecology and Tropical Biology, Biocenter, University of Würzburg, Würzburg, Germany
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McCullough IM, Hanly PJ, King KBS, Wagner T. Freshwater corridors in the conterminous United States: A coarse‐filter approach based on lake‐stream networks. Ecosphere 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4326] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Ian M. McCullough
- Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Michigan State University East Lansing Michigan USA
| | - Patrick J. Hanly
- Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Michigan State University East Lansing Michigan USA
| | - Katelyn B. S. King
- Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Michigan State University East Lansing Michigan USA
| | - Tyler Wagner
- U.S. Geological Survey, Pennsylvania Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit Pennsylvania State University University Park Pennsylvania USA
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11
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Asamoah EF, Di Marco M, Watson JEM, Beaumont LJ, Venter O, Maina JM. Land-use and climate risk assessment for Earth's remaining wilderness. Curr Biol 2022; 32:4890-4899.e4. [PMID: 36323323 DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2022.10.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2022] [Revised: 08/23/2022] [Accepted: 10/05/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
Earth's wilderness areas are reservoirs of genetic information and carbon storage systems, and are vital to reducing extinction risks. Retaining the conservation value of these areas is fundamental to achieving global biodiversity conservation goals; however, climate and land-use risk can undermine their ability to provide these functions. The extent to which wilderness areas are likely to be impacted by these drivers has not previously been quantified. Using climate and land-use change during baseline (1971-2005) and future (2016-2050) periods, we estimate that these stressors within wilderness areas will increase by ca. 60% and 39%, respectively, under a scenario of high emission and land-use change (SSP5-RCP8.5). Nearly half (49%) of all wilderness areas could experience substantial climate change by 2050 under this scenario, potentially limiting their capacity to shelter biodiversity. Notable climate (>5 km year-1) and land-use (>0.25 km year-1) changes are expected to occur more rapidly in the unprotected wilderness, including the edges of the Amazonian wilderness, Northern Russia, and Central Africa, which support unique assemblages of species and are critical for the preservation of biodiversity. However, an alternative scenario of sustainable development (SSP1-RCP2.6) would attenuate the projected climate velocity and land-use instability by 54% and 6%, respectively. Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and preserving the remaining intact natural ecosystems can help fortify these bastions of biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ernest F Asamoah
- School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, 2109 Sydney, NSW, Australia.
| | - Moreno Di Marco
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza University of Rome, 00185 Rome, Italy
| | - James E M Watson
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia 4072, QLD, Australia; Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, St Lucia 4072, QLD, Australia
| | - Linda J Beaumont
- School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, 2109 Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Oscar Venter
- Natural Resource and Environmental Studies Institute, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC, Canada
| | - Joseph M Maina
- School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, 2109 Sydney, NSW, Australia.
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12
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Xu X, Huang A, Belle E, De Frenne P, Jia G. Protected areas provide thermal buffer against climate change. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2022; 8:eabo0119. [PMID: 36322652 PMCID: PMC9629704 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abo0119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2022] [Accepted: 09/07/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is pushing temperatures beyond the thermal tolerance of many species. Whether protected areas (PAs) can serve as climate change refugia for biodiversity has not yet been explored. We find that PAs of natural (seminatural) vegetation effectively cool the land surface temperature, particularly the daily maximum temperature in the tropics, and reduce diurnal and seasonal temperature ranges in boreal and temperate regions, as compared to nonprotected areas that are often disturbed or converted to various land uses. Moreover, protected forests slow the rate of warming more at higher latitudes. The warming rate in protected boreal forests is up to 20% lower than in their surroundings, which is particularly important for species in the boreal where warming is more pronounced. The fact that nonprotected areas with the same type of vegetation as PAs show reduced warming buffer capacity highlights the importance of conservation to stabilize the local climate and safeguard biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiyan Xu
- Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
| | - Anqi Huang
- School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
| | - Elise Belle
- WCMC Europe, 26 rue d’Edimbourg, 1050 Bruxelles, Belgium
| | - Pieter De Frenne
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Gontrode-Melle, Belgium
| | - Gensuo Jia
- Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
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13
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Theobald DM, Keeley ATH, Laur A, Tabor G. A simple and practical measure of the connectivity of protected area networks: The
ProNet
metric. CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.12823] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Aaron Laur
- Center for Large Landscape Conservation Bozeman Montana USA
| | - Gary Tabor
- Center for Large Landscape Conservation Bozeman Montana USA
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Verniest F, Galewski T, Julliard R, Guelmami A, Le Viol I. Coupling future climate and land‐use projections reveals where to strengthen the protection of Mediterranean Key Biodiversity Areas. CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.12807] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Fabien Verniest
- Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Sorbonne Université Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO) Paris France
- Institut de recherche pour la conservation des zones humides méditerranéennes Tour du Valat, le Sambuc Arles France
| | - Thomas Galewski
- Institut de recherche pour la conservation des zones humides méditerranéennes Tour du Valat, le Sambuc Arles France
| | - Romain Julliard
- Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Sorbonne Université Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO) Paris France
| | - Anis Guelmami
- Institut de recherche pour la conservation des zones humides méditerranéennes Tour du Valat, le Sambuc Arles France
| | - Isabelle Le Viol
- Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Sorbonne Université Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO) Paris France
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15
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Mancini F, Hodgson JA, Isaac NJB. Co-designing an Indicator of Habitat Connectivity for England. Front Ecol Evol 2022. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2022.892987] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Landscapes have been drastically transformed by human activities, generally resulting in the loss of semi-natural habitat. In the United Kingdom, wildlife habitat mainly consists of small patches of semi-natural habitat that are poorly connected to each other. In May 2019 the United Kingdom Government published an outcome indicator framework for measuring progress against the goals and outcomes of the 25 Year Environment Plan (YEP) for England. The indicator of the Quantity, Quality and Connectivity of Habitats (D1) is one of seven indicators within the Wildlife theme and it follows the principle of making areas of semi-natural habitat “more, bigger, better and joined up.” In this study, we describe the process of co-designing the connectivity metric for indicator D1. In consultation with experts and stakeholders we selected three candidate landscape connectivity metrics to produce the indicator. The first metric comes from a suite of rules of thumb for practitioners and it is the proportion of habitat patches in the landscape that have a nearest neighbor ≤ 1 km away. The second metric is a habitat fragmentation index from the Natural England National Biodiversity Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool (NBCCVAT). The third and final metric is from the software Condatis and it represents the ability of a species to move through a landscape. We tested each metric on a set of simulated landscapes representing different levels of habitat addition strategies and different spatial configurations. We asked if the metrics are able to detect changes in the connectivity of each of these landscapes after habitat addition. Two of the three metrics (NBCCVAT and Condatis) performed well and were sensitive to change. They both increased as the total extent of habitat increased and each showed particular sensitivity to one spatial arrangement over the other. Given these results, one or both of these metrics could be used to produce the indicator. We discuss the implications of using one or both of the metrics and highlight the fundamental choices that need to be made to produce the indicator.
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Robertson EP, Tanner EP, Elmore RD, Fuhlendorf SD, Mays JD, Knutson J, Weir JR, Loss SR. Fire management alters the thermal landscape and provides multi-scale thermal options for a terrestrial turtle facing a changing climate. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:782-796. [PMID: 34741780 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15977] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2021] [Revised: 09/04/2021] [Accepted: 10/23/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
As effects of climate change intensify, there is a growing need to understand the thermal properties of landscapes and their influence on wildlife. A key thermal property of landscapes is vegetation structure and composition. Management approaches can alter vegetation and consequently the thermal landscape, potentially resulting in underappreciated consequences for wildlife thermoregulation. Consideration of spatial scale can clarify how management overlaid onto existing vegetation patterns affects thermal properties of landscapes relevant to wildlife. We examined effects of temperature, fire management, and vegetation structure on multi-scale habitat selection of an ectothermic vertebrate (the turtle Terrapene carolina triunguis) in the Great Plains of the central United States by linking time-since-fire data from 18 experimental burn plots to turtle telemetry locations and thermal and vegetation height data. Within three 60-ha experimental landscapes, each containing six 10-ha sub-blocks that are periodically burned, we found that turtles select time-since-fire gradients differently depending on maximum daily ambient temperature. At moderate temperatures, turtles selected sub-blocks with recent (<1 year) time-since-fire, but during relatively hot and cool conditions, they selected sub-blocks with later (2-3 year) time-since-fire that provided thermal buffering compared with recently burned sub-blocks. Within 10-ha sub-blocks, turtles selected locations with taller vegetation during warmer conditions that provided thermal buffering. Thermal performance curves revealed that turtle activity declined as temperatures exceeded ~24-29°C, and on "heat days" (≥29°C) 73% of turtles were inactive compared with 37% on non-heat days, emphasizing that thermal extremes may lead to opportunity costs (i.e., foregone benefits turtles could otherwise accrue if active). Our results indicate that management approaches that promote a mosaic of vegetation heights, like spatiotemporally dynamic fire, can provide thermal refuges at multiple spatial scales and thus be an actionable way to provide wildlife with multiple thermal options in the context of ongoing and future climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ellen P Robertson
- Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA
- South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Norman, Oklahoma, USA
| | - Evan P Tanner
- Department of Rangeland and Wildlife Science, Caesar Kleberg Wildlife Research Institute, Texas A&M University-Kingsville, Kingsville, Texas, USA
| | - R Dwayne Elmore
- Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA
| | - Samuel D Fuhlendorf
- Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA
| | - Jonathan D Mays
- Florida Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA
| | - Jennifer Knutson
- Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA
| | - John R Weir
- Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA
| | - Scott R Loss
- Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA
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17
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Carroll C, Ray JC. Maximizing the effectiveness of national commitments to protected area expansion for conserving biodiversity and ecosystem carbon under climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:3395-3414. [PMID: 33852186 PMCID: PMC8360173 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15645] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/24/2020] [Accepted: 03/30/2021] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Global commitments to protected area expansion should prioritize opportunities to protect climate refugia and ecosystems which store high levels of irrecoverable carbon, as key components of an effective response to biodiversity loss and climate change. The United States and Canada are responsible for one-sixth of global greenhouse gas emissions but hold extensive natural ecosystems that store globally significant above- and below-ground carbon. Canada has initiated a process of protected area network expansion in concert with efforts at reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples, and acknowledged nature-based solutions as a key aspect of climate change mitigation. The US, although not a party to global biodiversity conventions, has recently committed to protecting 30% of its extent by 2030 and achieving the UNFCCC Paris Agreement's mitigation targets. The opportunities afforded by these dual biodiversity conservation and climate commitments require coordinated national and regional policies to ensure that new protected areas maximize biodiversity-focused adaptation and nature-based mitigation opportunities. We address how global commitments can best inform national policy initiatives which build on existing agency mandates for regional planning and species conservation. Previous analyses of global conservation priorities under climate change have been tenuously linked to policy contexts of individual nations and have lacked information on refugia due to limitations of globally available datasets. Comparison and synthesis of predictions from a range of recently developed refugia metrics allow such data to inform planning despite substantial uncertainty arising from contrasting model assumptions and inputs. A case study for endangered species planning for old-forest-associated species in the US Pacific Northwest demonstrates how regional planning can be nested hierarchically within national biodiversity-focused adaptation and nature-based mitigation strategies which integrate refugia, connectivity, and ecosystem carbon metrics to holistically evaluate the role of different land designations and where carbon mitigation and protection of biodiversity's resilience to climate change can be aligned.
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18
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Carrasco L, Papeş M, Sheldon KS, Giam X. Global progress in incorporating climate adaptation into land protection for biodiversity since Aichi targets. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:1788-1801. [PMID: 33570817 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15511] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2020] [Accepted: 12/14/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Climate adaptation strategies are being developed and implemented to protect biodiversity from the impacts of climate change. A well-established strategy involves the identification and addition of new areas for conservation, and most countries agreed in 2010 to expand the global protected area (PA) network to 17% by 2020 (Aichi Biodiversity Target 11). Although great efforts to expand the global PA network have been made, the potential of newly established PAs to conserve biodiversity under future climate change remains unclear at the global scale. Here, we conducted the first global-extent, country-level assessment of the contribution of PA network expansion toward three key land prioritization approaches for biodiversity persistence under climate change: protecting climate refugia, protecting abiotic diversity, and increasing connectivity. These approaches avoid uncertainties of biodiversity predictions under climate change as well as the issue of undescribed species. We found that 51% of the countries created new PAs in locations with lower mean climate velocity (representing better climate refugia) and 58% added PAs in areas with higher mean abiotic diversity compared to the available, non-human-dominated lands not chosen for protection. However, connectivity among PAs declined in 53% of the countries, indicating that many new PAs were located far from existing PAs. Lastly, we identified potential improvements for climate adaptation, showing that 94% of the countries have the opportunity to improve in executing one or more approaches to conserve biodiversity. Most countries (60%) were associated with multiple opportunities, highlighting the need for integrative strategies that target multiple land protection approaches. Our results demonstrate that a global improvement in the protection of climate refugia, abiotic diversity, and connectivity of reserves is needed to complement land protection informed by existing and projected species distributions. Our study also provides a framework for countries to prioritize land protection for climate adaptation using publicly available data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luis Carrasco
- National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
| | - Monica Papeş
- National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
| | - Kimberly S Sheldon
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
| | - Xingli Giam
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
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19
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Brown J, Barton P, Cunningham SA. How bioregional history could shape the future of agriculture. ADV ECOL RES 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/bs.aecr.2020.11.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
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20
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High-resolution land value maps reveal underestimation of conservation costs in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020; 117:29577-29583. [PMID: 33168741 PMCID: PMC7703645 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2012865117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
This paper presents high-resolution maps of the estimated value of private lands in the contiguous United States. The estimates permit the prediction of the cost of conservation interventions at a much higher accuracy than proxies used in previous nationwide conservation planning studies. A close look at two recent studies on US-wide floodplain protection and species conservation planning for climate change suggests that the use of previous cost proxies led to the underestimation of policy budgets necessary to achieve environmental goals by a factor of 2 and a factor of 37.5, respectively. This can undermine the validity of findings. Future analyses of conservation policies can and should use high-resolution cost estimates in their justification and spatial prioritization of interventions. The justification and targeting of conservation policy rests on reliable measures of public and private benefits from competing land uses. Advances in Earth system observation and modeling permit the mapping of public ecosystem services at unprecedented scales and resolutions, prompting new proposals for land protection policies and priorities. Data on private benefits from land use are not available at similar scales and resolutions, resulting in a data mismatch with unknown consequences. Here I show that private benefits from land can be quantified at large scales and high resolutions, and that doing so can have important implications for conservation policy models. I developed high-resolution estimates of fair market value of private lands in the contiguous United States by training tree-based ensemble models on 6 million land sales. The resulting estimates predict conservation cost with up to 8.5 times greater accuracy than earlier proxies. Studies using coarser cost proxies underestimate conservation costs, especially at the expensive tail of the distribution. This has led to underestimations of policy budgets by factors of up to 37.5 in recent work. More accurate cost accounting will help policy makers acknowledge the full magnitude of contemporary conservation challenges and can help improve the targeting of public ecosystem service investments.
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Zanin M, Gonzalez-Borrajo N, ChÁvez C, Rubio Y, Harmsen B, Keller C, Villalva P, Srbek-Araujo AC, Costa LP, Palomares F. The differential genetic signatures related to climatic landscapes for jaguars and pumas on a continental scale. Integr Zool 2020; 16:2-18. [PMID: 32929877 DOI: 10.1111/1749-4877.12486] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
Modern and paleoclimate changes may have altered species dynamics by shifting species' niche suitability over space and time. We analyze whether the current genetic structure and isolation of the two large American felids, jaguar (Panthera onca) and puma (Puma concolor), are mediated by changes in climatic suitability and connection routes over modern and paleoclimatic landscapes. We estimate species distribution under 5 climatic landscapes (modern, Holocene, last maximum glaciations [LMG], average suitability, and climatic instability) and correlate them with individuals' genetic isolation through causal modeling on a resemblance matrix. Both species exhibit genetic isolation patterns correlated with LMG climatic suitability, suggesting that these areas may have worked as "allele refuges." However, the jaguar showed higher vulnerability to climate changes, responding to modern climatic suitability and connection routes, whereas the puma showed a continuous and gradual transition of genetic variation. Despite differential responsiveness to climate change, both species are subjected to the climatic effects on genetic configuration, which may make them susceptible to future climatic changes, since these are progressing faster and with higher intensity than changes in the paleoclimate. Thus, the effects of climatic changes should be considered in the design of conservation strategies to ensure evolutionary and demographic processes mediated by gene flow for both species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marina Zanin
- Biology Department, Federal University of Maranhão, São Luís, Brazil
| | - Noa Gonzalez-Borrajo
- Departamento de Biologia de la Conservación, Estación Biológica de Doñana, Sevilla, Spain
| | - Cuauhtémoc ChÁvez
- Departamento de Ciencias Ambientales, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Yamel Rubio
- Escuela de Biologia, Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa, Culiacán, Mexico
| | | | - Claudia Keller
- Biodiversity Coordination, Amazon Research Institute, Manaus, Brazil
| | - Pablo Villalva
- Departamento de Biologia de la Conservación, Estación Biológica de Doñana, Sevilla, Spain
| | | | - Leonora Pires Costa
- Biological Sciences Department, Federal University of Espírito Santo, Vitória, Brazil
| | - Francisco Palomares
- Departamento de Biologia de la Conservación, Estación Biológica de Doñana, Sevilla, Spain
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Abstract
Connectivity and wildlife corridors are often key components to successful conservation and management plans. Connectivity for wildlife is typically modeled in a static environment that reflects a single snapshot in time. However, it has been shown that, when compared with dynamic connectivity models, static models can underestimate connectivity and mask important population processes. Therefore, including dynamism in connectivity models is important if the goal is to predict functional connectivity. We incorporated four levels of dynamism (individual, daily, seasonal, and interannual) into an individual-based movement model for black bears (Ursus americanus) in Massachusetts, USA. We used future development projections to model movement into the year 2050. We summarized habitat connectivity over the 32-year simulation period as the number of simulated movement paths crossing each pixel in our study area. Our results predict black bears will further colonize the expanding part of their range in the state and move beyond this range towards the greater Boston metropolitan area. This information is useful to managers for predicting and addressing human–wildlife conflict and in targeting public education campaigns on bear awareness. Including dynamism in connectivity models can produce more realistic models and, when future projections are incorporated, can ensure the identification of areas that offer long-term functional connectivity for wildlife.
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