Black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) range contraction and expansion in Europe under changing climate

Novel insights into hotspots of insect vectors of GLRaV-3: Dynamics and global distribution

Grapevine leafroll-associated virus 3 (GLRaV-3) is the most prevalent and economically damaging virus in grapevines and is found on nearly all continents, except Antarctica. Ten mealybugs act as vector insects transmitting the GLRaV-3. Understanding the potential distribution range of vector insects under climate change is crucial for preventing and managing vector insects and controlling and delaying the spread of GLRaV-3. This study investigated the potential geographical range of insect vectors of GLRaV-3 worldwide using MaxEnt (maximum entropy) based on occurrence data under environmental variables. The potential distributions of these insects were projected for the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s under the three climate change scenarios. The results showed that the potential distribution range of most vector insects is concentrated in Southeastern North America, Europe, Asia, and Southeast Australia. Most vector insects contract their potential distribution ranges under climate-change conditions. The stacked model suggested that potential distribution hotspots of vector insects were present in Southeastern North America, Europe, Southeast Asia, and Southeast Australia. The potential distribution range of hotspots would shrink with climate change. These results provide important information for governmental decision-makers and farmers in developing control and management strategies against vector insects of GLRaV-3. They can also serve as references for studies on other insect vectors.

Predicting suitable habitat for the endangered tree Ormosia microphylla in China

Climate change has significantly influenced the growth and distribution of plant species, particularly those with a narrow ecological niche. Understanding climate change impacts on the distribution and spatial pattern of endangered species can improve conservation strategies. The MaxEnt model is widely applied to predict species distribution and environmental tolerance based on occurrence data. This study investigated the suitable habitats of the endangered Ormosia microphylla in China and evaluated the importance of bioclimatic factors in shaping its distribution. Occurrence data and environmental variables were gleaned to construct the MaxEnt model, and the resulting suitable habitat maps were evaluated for accuracy. The results showed that the MaxEnt model had an excellent simulation quality (AUC = 0.962). The major environmental factors predicting the current distribution of O. microphylla were the mean diurnal range (bio2) and precipitation of the driest month (bio14). The current core potential distribution areas were concentrated in Guangxi, Fujian, Guizhou, Guangdong, and Hunan provinces in south China, demonstrating significant differences in their distribution areas. Our findings contribute to developing effective conservation and management measures for O. microphylla, addressing the critical need for reliable prediction of unfavorable impacts on the potential suitable habitats of the endangered species.

Changes in the Range of Four Advantageous Grasshopper Habitats in the Hexi Corridor under Future Climate Conditions

Angaracris rhodopa (Fischer et Walheim), Calliptamus abbreviatus (Ikonnikov), Myrmeleotettix palpalis (Zubowsky), and Oedaleus decorus asiaticus (Bey-Bienko) are the main grasshoppers that harm the natural grassland in the Hexi Corridor in Gansu, northwest China. In this study, the MaxEnt model was employed to identify the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of the four grasshoppers' habitats and to assess their distribution under current and future climate conditions. The aim was to provide a basis for grasshopper monitoring, prediction, and precise control. In this study, distribution of suitable habitats for A. rhodopa, C. abbreviates, M. palpalis, O. decorus asiaticus were predicted under current and future climatic scenarios using the Maxent model. The average AUC (area under the ROC curve) and TSS (true skill statistic) values of the four grasshoppers were greater than 0.9, and the simulation results were excellent and highly reliable. The mean annual precipitation was the main factor limiting the current range of suitable areas for these four species. Under the current climate, A. rhodopa, C. abbreviatus, and O. decorus asiaticus were mainly distributed in the central and eastern parts of the Hexi Corridor, and M. palpalis was distributed throughout the Hexi Corridor, with a suitable area of 1.29 × 104, 1.43 × 104, 1.44 × 104, and 2.12 × 104 km2, accounting for 13.7%, 15.2%, 15.3%, and 22.5% of the total area of the grasslands in the Hexi Corridor, respectively. The highly suitable areas of A. rhodopa, C. abbreviatus, and O. decorus asiaticus were mainly distributed in the eastern-central part of Zhangye City, the western part of Wuwei City, and the western and southern parts of Jinchang City, with areas of 0.20 × 104, 0.29 × 104, and 0.35 × 104 km2, accounting for 2.2%, 3%, and 3.7% of the grassland area, respectively. The high habitat of M. palpalis was mainly distributed in the southeast of Jiuquan City, the west, middle, and east of Zhangye City, the west of Wuwei City, and the west and south of Jinchang City, with an area of 0.32 × 104 km2, accounting for 3.4% of the grassland area. In the 2030s, the range of A. rhodopa, C. abbreviatus, and O. decorus asiaticus was predicted to increase; the range of M. palpalis will decrease. The results of this study could provide a theoretical basis for the precise monitoring and control of key areas of grasshoppers in the Hexi Corridor.

Importance of Habitat Context in Modelling Risk Maps for Two Established Invasive Alien Plant Species: The Case of Ailanthus altissima and Phytolacca americana in Slovenia (Europe)

Forests are important ecosystems that face threats from climate change and global environmental shifts, with invasive alien plant species being a significant concern. Some of these invasive species have already become established, while others are in the process of naturalisation. Although forests are a relatively stable ecosystem, extreme weather events increase their vulnerability to change, and clearings left after natural disturbances are particularly susceptible to invasion by alien plant species (IAPS). We created risk maps of two species that have spread rapidly in the last decade: American pokeweed (Phytolacca americana) and the tree of heaven (Ailanthus altissima). We prepared a generalised linear model based on the occurrence data collected within the LIFE ARTEMIS project. Eleven environmental variables were used to determine habitat characteristics. We constructed two models for each species: one covering the entirety of Slovenia and the other specifically for the forested areas in Slovenia, with the latter incorporating forest-specific variables (such as forest sanitation felling and monocultures). We observed the presence of both species at lower altitudes and in close proximity to water sources. American pokeweed tends to occur nearer to railways, while the presence of the tree of heaven is associated with areas lacking carbonate parent material and influenced by land use patterns. In forested areas, the occurrence of American pokeweed is influenced by forest habitat characteristics, such as disturbances caused by extreme weather events or the prevalence of Norway spruce monocultures. In contrast, the occurrence of the tree of heaven is influenced by more general environmental variables, such as altitude and proximity to railways. Consequently, we have generated risk maps for the entirety of Slovenia and separately for forested areas, both of which indicate similar levels of risk, particularly for the tree of heaven. The risk map for American pokeweed highlights numerous vulnerable areas, especially forest edges, which are highly susceptible to invasion. Furthermore, there is a higher likelihood of this species occurring in areas that have undergone sanitation felling. This study suggests that the production of risk maps of IAPS could be improved by focussing on habitat types and taking into account habitat-specific variables. This approach could enhance the early detection and management of these invasive species.

The interacting effect of climate change and herbivory can trigger large-scale transformations of European temperate forests

In many regions of Europe, large wild herbivores alter forest community composition through their foraging preferences, hinder the forest's natural adaptive responses to climate change, and reduce ecosystem resilience. We investigated a widespread European forest type, a mixed forest dominated by Picea abies, which has recently experienced an unprecedented level of disturbance across the continent. Using the forest landscape model iLand, we investigated the combined effect of climate change and herbivory on forest structure, composition, and carbon and identified conditions leading to ecosystem transitions on a 300-year timescale. Eight climate change scenarios, driven by Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5, combined with three levels of regeneration browsing, were tested. We found that the persistence of the current level of browsing pressure impedes adaptive changes in community composition and sustains the presence of the vulnerable yet less palatable P. abies. These development trajectories were tortuous, characterized by a high disturbance intensity. On the contrary, reduced herbivory initiated a transformation towards the naturally dominant broadleaved species that was associated with an increased forest carbon and a considerably reduced disturbance. The conditions of RCP4.5 combined with high and moderate browsing levels preserved the forest within its reference range of variability, defining the actual boundaries of resilience. The remaining combinations of browsing and climate change led to ecosystem transitions. Under RCP4.5 with browsing effects excluded, the new equilibrium conditions were achieved within 120 years, whereas the stabilization was delayed by 50-100 years under RCP8.5 with higher browsing intensities. We conclude that forests dominated by P. abies are prone to transitions driven by climate change. However, reducing herbivory can set the forest on a stable and predictable trajectory, whereas sustaining the current browsing levels can lead to heightened disturbance activity, extended transition times, and high variability in the target conditions.

Climate change may drive the distribution of tribe Zyginelline pests in China and the Indo-China Peninsula to shift towards higher latitude river-mountain systems

BACKGROUND

Tribe Zyginelline leafhoppers can transmit plant viruses and are important pests that affect agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry, causing serious economic losses. The potential distribution patterns of Zyginellini will change under climate change. Therefore, the best-performing random forest and maximum entropy models among 12 commonly used ecological niche models, alongside an ensemble model, were selected to predict the changes in habitat suitability distribution of Zyginellini under current and future climate scenarios [represented by two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), namely SSP126 and SSP585, for three periods (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s)] in China and the Indo-China Peninsula for the first time.

RESULTS

The results revealed that the distribution of Zyginellini was mainly dominated by minimum temperature of coldest month. Under current and future climate scenarios, Zyginellini was mostly distributed southeast of the 400 mm equivalent precipitation line in China, and Vietnam. Under the future SSP126 scenario, the alert areas will mainly be concentrated in Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Hebei in China, alongside Myanmar and Thailand in the Indo-China Peninsula. Meanwhile, in the SSP585 scenario, the alert areas in China will increase, whereas there will be little change in the Indo-China Peninsula. Interestingly, from the current to the future, the cores of Zyginelline distribution occurred around rivers and mountains, and shifted from Guizhou along the Yuanjiang River system to higher latitudes in Hunan.

CONCLUSION

Zyginellini prefers higher latitude river-mountain systems under climate change. Our results will contribute to effective pest control strategies and biogeographical research for Zyginellini alongside other Cicadellidae insects. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Forest herb species with similar European geographic ranges may respond differently to climate change

Many phenological studies have shown that spring geophytes are very sensitive to climate change, responding by shifting flowering and fruiting dates. However, there is a gap in knowledge about climatic drivers of their distributions and range shifts under climate change. Here we aimed to estimate climate niche shifts for four widely distributed and common geophytes of the nemoral zone of Europe (Anemone nemorosa, Anemone ranunculoides, Convallaria majalis and Maianthemum bifolium) and to assess the threat level under various climate change scenarios. Using MaxEnt species distribution models and future climate change scenarios we found that the precipitation of the warmest quarter was the most important factor shaping their ranges. All species studied will experience more loss in the 2061-2080 period than in 2041-2060, and under more pessimistic scenarios. M. bifolium will experience the highest loss, followed by A. nemorosa, A. ranunculoides, and the smallest for C. majalis. A. ranunculoides will gain the most, while M. bifolium will have the smallest potential range expansion. Studied species may respond differently to climate change despite similar current distributions and climatic variables affecting their potential distribution. Even slight differences in climatic niches could reduce the overlap of future ranges compared to present. We expect that due to high dependence on the warmest quarter precipitation, summer droughts in the future may be particularly severe for species that prefer moist soils. The lack of adaptation to long-distance migration and limited availability of appropriate soils may limit their migration and lead to a decline in biodiversity and changes in European forests.

NDVI as a potential tool for forecasting changes in geographical range of sycamore (Acer pseudoplatanus L.)

Determining the natural range of Acer pseudoplatanus and the future directions of its spread is not clear. Modern technological achievements, including tools related to remote sensing, provide new opportunities to assess the degree of spread and adaptation of species to a changing climate. The aim of the work was to demonstrate the possibility of using NDVI to assess the habitat conditions of sycamore in Poland and the possibility of its natural expansion. The data analysis was divided into 2 parts. The first covered the characteristics of all sycamore stands occurring in Poland. In the second part, the analysis of sycamore stands using NDVI was made. The results of the study show that the highest average NDVI values are found in sycamore stands in the northern part of Poland, which has so far been considered less favorable for sycamore. This may suggest the potential for an increase in the share of sycamore towards the north. The results also confirm the forecasts given in the literature regarding the spread of sycamore towards Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The results also point to Denmark and the western part of the British Isles as potentially favorable habitats for sycamore.

Reconstructed Global Invasion and Spatio-Temporal Distribution Pattern Dynamics of Sorghum halepense under Climate and Land-Use Change

Sorghum halepense competes with crops and grass species in cropland, grassland, and urban environments, increasing invasion risk. However, the invasive historical dynamics and distribution patterns of S. halepense associated with current and future climate change and land-use change (LUC) remain unknown. We first analyzed the invasive historical dynamics of S. halepense to explore its invasion status and expansion trends. We then used a species distribution model to examine how future climate change and LUC will facilitate the invasion of S. halepense. We reconstructed the countries that have historically been invaded by S. halepense based on databases with detailed records of countries and occurrences. We ran biomod2 based on climate data and land-use data at 5' resolution, assessing the significance of environmental variables and LUC. Sorghum halepense was widely distributed worldwide through grain trade and forage introduction, except in Africa. Europe and North America provided most potential global suitable habitats (PGSHs) for S. halepense in cropland, grassland, and urban environments, representing 48.69%, 20.79%, and 84.82%, respectively. The future PGSHs of S. halepense increased continuously in the Northern Hemisphere, transferring to higher latitudes. Environmental variables were more significant than LUC in predicting the PGSHs of S. halepense. Future PGSHs of S. halepense are expected to increase, exacerbating the invasion risk through agricultural LUC. These results provide a basis for the early warning and prevention of S. halepense worldwide.

World Spread of Tropical Soda Apple (Solanum viarum) under Global Change: Historical Reconstruction, Niche Shift, and Potential Geographic Distribution

Solanum viarum has become extensively invasive owing to international trade, climate change, and land-use change. As it is classified as a quarantine weed by countries such as the U.S. and Mexico, it is critical to understand the prevailing historical dispersal, ecological niche dynamics, and distribution patterns. We reconstructed the historical invasion countries and analyzed the ecological niche shift of S. viarum. Using MaxEnt based on the conservativeness of ecological niches, we studied variations in the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of S. viarum in ecosystems and variations in suitability probabilities along latitudinal gradients. The invasion history in six continents involved three phases: lag (before 1980), spread (1980-2010), and equilibrium (2010-present). The ecological niche remains conserved. The area of S. viarum PGDs had increased by 259 km2; the PGDs will expand to reach a maximum in the 2050s, SSP5-8.5. The PGDs of S. viarum will migrate to higher latitudes under the same future climate scenarios. The latitudes subject to high threats range from 20° to 30° in forest and cropland ecosystems, 15.5° to 27.5° (northern hemisphere) and 33.1° to 42.8° (southern hemisphere) in grassland ecosystems, and 20° to 35° in urban ecosystems. Global change has led to an increased threat of S. viarum at high latitudes. These findings provide a theoretical basis to monitor and control S. viarum.

Tracing the future of epidemics: Coincident niche distribution of host animals and disease incidence revealed climate-correlated risk shifts of main zoonotic diseases in China

Climate has critical roles in the origin, pathogenesis and transmission of infectious zoonotic diseases. However, large-scale epidemiologic trend and specific response pattern of zoonotic diseases under future climate scenarios are poorly understood. Here, we projected the distribution shifts of transmission risks of main zoonotic diseases under climate change in China. First, we shaped the global habitat distribution of main host animals for three representative zoonotic diseases (2, 6, and 12 hosts for dengue, hemorrhagic fever, and plague, respectively) with 253,049 occurrence records using maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling. Meanwhile, we predicted the risk distribution of the above three diseases with 197,098 disease incidence records from 2004 to 2017 in China using an integrated Maxent modeling approach. The comparative analysis showed that there exist highly coincident niche distributions between habitat distribution of hosts and risk distribution of diseases, indicating that the integrated Maxent modeling is accurate and effective for predicting the potential risk of zoonotic diseases. On this basis, we further projected the current and future transmission risks of 11 main zoonotic diseases under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) in 2050 and 2070 in China using the above integrated Maxent modeling with 1,001,416 disease incidence records. We found that Central China, Southeast China, and South China are concentrated regions with high transmission risks for main zoonotic diseases. More specifically, zoonotic diseases had diverse shift patterns of transmission risks including increase, decrease, and unstable. Further correlation analysis indicated that these patterns of shifts were highly correlated with global warming and precipitation increase. Our results revealed how specific zoonotic diseases respond in a changing climate, thereby calling for effective administration and prevention strategies. Furthermore, these results will shed light on guiding future epidemiologic prediction of emerging infectious diseases under global climate change.

Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Suitable Planting Areas for Pyrus Species under Climate Change in China

Planting suitability determines the distribution and yield of crops in a given region which can be greatly affected by climate change. In recent years, many studies have shown that carbon dioxide fertilization effects increase the productivity of temperate deciduous fruit trees under a changing climate, but the potential risks to fruit tree planting caused by a reduction in suitable planting areas are rarely reported. In this study, Maxent was first used to investigate the spatial distribution of five Pyrus species in China, and the consistency between the actual production area and the modeled climatically suitable area under the current climatic conditions were determined. In addition, based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, three climate models were used to simulate the change in suitable area and the migration trend for different species under different emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). The results showed that the suitable area for pear was highly consistent with the actual main production area under current climate conditions. The potential planting areas of P. ussuriensis showed a downward trend under all emission paths from 2020 to 2100; other species showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing or slowing down and this growth effect was the most obvious in 2020-2040. Except for P. pashia, other species showed a migration trend toward a high latitude, and the trend was more prominent under the high emission path. Our results emphasize the response difference between species to climate change, and the method of consistency analysis between suitable planting area and actual production regions cannot only evaluate the potential planting risk but also provide a reasonable idea for the accuracy test of the modeled results. This work has certain guiding and reference significance for the protection of pear germplasm resources and the prediction of yield.

From comfort zone to mortality: Sequence of physiological stress thresholds in Robinia pseudoacacia seedlings during progressive drought

INTRODUCTION

Parameterizing the process of trees from the comfort zone to mortality during progressive drought is important for, but is not well represented in, vegetation models, given the lack of appropriate indices to gauge the response of trees to droughts. The objective of this study was to determine reliable and readily available tree drought stressindices and the thresholds at which droughts activate important physiological responses.

METHODS

We analyzed the changes in the transpiration (T), stomatal conductance, xylem conductance, and leaf health status due to a decrease in soil water availability (SWA), predawn xylem water potential (ψ_pd), and midday xylem water potential (ψ_md) in Robinia pseudoacacia seedlings during progressive drought.

RESULTS

The results showed that ψ_md was a better indicator of drought stress than SWA and ψ_pd, because ψ_md was more closely related to the physiological response (defoliation and xylem embolization) during severe drought and could be measured more conveniently. We derived the following five stress levels from the observed responses to decreasing ψ_md: comfort zone (ψ_md > -0.9 MPa), wherein transpiration and stomatal conductance are not limited by SWA; moderate drought stress (-0.9 to -1.75 MPa), wherein transpiration and stomatal conductance are limited by drought; high drought stress (-1.75 to -2.59 MPa), wherein transpiration decreases significantly (T< 10%) and stomata closes completely; severe drought stress (-2.59 to -4.02 MPa), wherein transpiration ceases (T< 0.1%) and leaf shedding orwilting is > 50%; and extreme drought stress (< -4.02 MPa), leading to tree mortality due to xylem hydraulic failure.

DISCUSSION

To our knowledge, our scheme is the first to outline the quantitative thresholds for the downregulation of physiological processes in R. pseudoacacia during drought, therefore, can be used to synthesize valuable information for process-based vegetation models.

Among demons and killers: current and future potential distribution of two hyper successful invasive gammarids

Biological invasions represent one of the main contemporary pressures facing freshwater ecosystems, and a better understanding of invasive species potential distributions is essential to prepare for future stressors. Crustacean invaders contribute significantly to global invasions with the Ponto-Caspian region being one of the primary donor areas for the Palearctic. The amphipods Dikerogammarus villosus and Dikerogammarus haemobaphes, popularly known as “killer” and “demon” shrimps, are emblematic of successful Ponto-Caspian invaders of European freshwaters. However, the geographical areas in which the abiotic environment is potentially suitable for them have not been investigated. To address this gap, current and future potential distributions were studied for the European Western Palearctic considering two scenarios and time periods (2050 and 2070) as well as the association between anthropogenic activities and individual species habitat suitability. Results show large areas of central-western Europe are currently suitable for both species and indicate some potential for range expansion within colder European areas. In particular, D. haemobaphes has the potential to expand its range further west and within southern parts of Europe. Scenarios of future climate change don’t provide evidence for further range expansion compared to the current conditions and suggest a reduction of range overlap within the most suitable areas. Results reveal lowland areas are at greatest risk of colonisation as well as a significant association with anthropogenic activities for both amphipods. The outcomes of the research could be used by resource managers for preparing and managing future changes of both species distributions and facilitate decision-making for monitoring and control.

Future Trends in Obolodiplosis robiniae Distribution across Eurasian Continent under Global Climate Change

Obolodiplosis robiniae was discovered in Eurasia at the beginning of the 21st century. In this study, we explore the present and future (in the years 2050 and 2070) trends in the potential distribution of O. robiniae in Eurasia under diverse climate change scenarios based on a maximum entropy model. Our findings indicated that the current potential distribution area of O. robiniae is within the range of 21°34' and 65°39' N in the Eurasian continent. The primary factor controlling the distribution of O. robiniae is temperature. The highly and moderately suitable areas are mainly distributed in the semi-humid and semi-arid regions, which also happen to be the locations where the host black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) grows at its fastest rate. The forecast of the potential distribution area of O. robiniae revealed that the species would benefit from global warming. The region suitable for the habitat of O. robiniae is characterized by a large-scale northward expansion trend and an increase in temperature. This information would help the forestry quarantine departments of Asian and European countries provide early warnings on the probable distribution areas of O. robiniae and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of O. robiniae spread and outbreaks.

Effects of climate-change scenarios on the distribution patterns of Castanea henryi

Castanea henryi, with edible nuts and timber value, is a key tree species playing essential roles in China's subtropical forest ecosystems. However, natural and human perturbations have nearly depleted its wild populations. The study identified the dominant environmental variables enabling and limiting its distribution and predicted its suitable habitats and distribution. The 212 occurrence records covering the whole distribution range of C. henryi in China and nine main bioclimatic variables were selected for detailed analysis. We applied the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and QGIS to predict potentially suitable habitats under the current and four future climate-change scenarios. The limiting factors for distribution were accessed by Jackknife, percent contribution, and permutation importance. We found that the current distribution areas were concentrated in the typical subtropical zone, mainly Central and South China provinces. The modeling results indicated temperature as the critical determinant of distribution patterns, including mean temperature of the coldest quarter, isothermality, and mean diurnal range. Winter low temperature imposed an effective constraint on its spread. Moisture served as a secondary factor in species distribution, involving precipitation seasonality and annual precipitation. Under future climate-change scenarios, excellent habitats would expand and shift northwards, whereas range contraction would occur on the southern edge. Extreme climate change could bring notable range shrinkage. This study provided a basis for protecting the species' germplasm resources. The findings could guide the management, cultivation, and conservation of C. henryi, assisted by a proposed three-domain operation framework: preservation areas, loss areas, and new areas, each to be implemented using tailor-made strategies.

Contradictory effect of climate change on American and European populations of Impatiens capensis Meerb. - is this herb a global threat?

AIMS

The present study is the first-ever attempt to generate information on the potential present and future distribution of Impatiens capensis (orange balsam) under various climate change scenarios. Moreover, the differences in bioclimatic preferences of native and non-native populations were evaluated.

LOCATION

Global.

TAXON

Angiosperms.

METHODS

A database of I. capensis localities was compiled based on the public database - the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), herbarium specimens, and a field survey in Poland. The initial dataset was verified, and each record was assigned to one of two groups - native (3664 records from North America) or non-native (750 records from Europe and the western part of North America). The analyses involved bioclimatic variables in 2.5 arc-minutes of interpolated climate surface downloaded from WorldClim v. 2.1. MaxEnt version 3.3.2 was used to conduct the ecological niche modeling based on presence-only observations of I. capensis. Forecasts of the future distribution of the climatic niches of the studied species in 2080-2100 were made based on climate projections developed by the CNRM/CERFACS modeling and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC-6).

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Distribution models created for "present time" showed slightly broader potential geographical ranges of both native and invasive populations of orange balsam. On the other hand, some areas (e.g. NW Poland, SW Finland), settled by the species, are far outside the modeled climate niche, which indicates a much greater adaptation potential of I. capensis. In addition, the models have shown that climate change will shift the native range of orange balsam to the north and the range of its European populations to the northwest. Moreover, while the coverage of niches suitable for I. capensis in America will extend due to climate change, the European populations will face 31-95 % habitat loss.

Assessment of Parectopa robiniella Clemens (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae) Effect on Biochemical Parameters of Robinia pseudoacacia Under Conditions of an Industrial City in Steppe Ukraine

Antioxidant enzymatic activity and soluble protein content in Robinia pseudoacacia L. (black locust), invasive tree in Europe, plants were determined under feeding conditions of the caterpillars of Parectopa robiniella Clemens, 1863, invasive miner in Europe, in trees of three (I, II, III) age groups (5–10, 15–25, and 40 years). Biochemical analysis data showed significant differences between reference and experimental leaf samples in different urban ecosystems. There was no association between changes in catalase and peroxidase activity and protein content under the influence of leaf blotch miners depending on the tree age. Significant variability of proteins under P. robiniella influence was noted; the highest of its values were recorded in the leaves of ІІІ-aged trees. In most plantings (and especially in trees of age group III), an increase (1.2 to 2.7 times) in GPx activity or the absence of its changes was registered both in the ecologically favorable zone and in the locations affected by emissions from road transport and industrial enterprises. Plants of age groups I and II in the emission areas of metallurgical, pipe-rolling, and chemical industries experienced a significant decrease in GPx activity (by 20.2–44.6%) in the leaves damaged by the phytophage. In most of the plantings studied, catalase showed an increase/stability of its activity in all age groups of trees under condition of pest attack. The highest increase in САТ activity (2.1 times) was recorded in young R. pseudoacacia plants in an ecologically favorable area of the city.

Analysis of the Potential Range of Anticlea sibirica L. (Kunth) and Its Changes under Moderate Climate Change in the 21st Century

The study shows the analysis of the current potential range and the modeling of its changes in the hemiboreal species Anticlea sibirica. The models show the habitat suitability for A. sibirica under moderate climatic changes (RCP4.5) in the middle and second half of the 21st century. For modeling, we used MaxEnt software with the predictors being climate variables from CHELSA Bioclim and a digital elevation model. The modeling has shown that climate change can be favorable for the spread of A. sibirica to the northeastern part of its range by expanding highly suitable habitats in mountainous landscapes along the coast of the Sea of Okhotsk. In the rest of the range, the total area of suitable habitats will decrease. In areas with extremely deteriorating growing conditions, the species will persist in low-competition habitats such as rocky outcrops, riverbanks, and screes. The predicted change in the distribution of A. sibirica indicates a possible strong transformation of the vegetation cover in Siberia and the Urals, even under moderate climate change.

Risks, benefits, and knowledge gaps of non-native tree species in Europe

Changing ecosystem conditions and diverse socio-economical events have contributed to an ingrained presence of non-native tree species (NNTs) in the natural and cultural European landscapes. Recent research endeavors have focused on different aspects of NNTs such as legislation, benefits, and risks for forestry, emphasizing that large knowledge gaps remain. As an attempt to fulfill part of these gaps, within the PEN-CAFoRR COST Action (CA19128) network, we established an open-access questionnaire that allows both academic experts and practitioners to provide information regarding NNTs from 20 European countries. Then, we integrated the data originating from the questionnaire, related to the country-based assessment of both peer-reviewed and grey literature, with information from available datasets (EUFORGEN and EU-Forest), which gave the main structure to the study and led to a mixed approach review. Finally, our study provided important insights into the current state of knowledge regarding NNTs. In particular, we highlighted NNTs that have shown to be less commonly addressed in research, raising caution about those characterized by an invasive behavior and used for specific purposes (e.g., wood production, soil recultivation, afforestation, and reforestation). NNTs were especially explored in the context of resilient and adaptive forest management. Moreover, we emphasized the assisted and natural northward migration of NNTs as another underscored pressing issue, which needs to be addressed by joint efforts, especially in the context of the hybridization potential. This study represents an additional effort toward the knowledge enhancement of the NNTs situation in Europe, aiming for a continuously active common source deriving from interprofessional collaboration.

Potential European Geographical Distribution of Gnathotrichus materiarius (Fitch, 1858) (Coleoptera: Scolytinae) under Current and Future Climate Conditions

Gnathotrichus materiarius (Fitch, 1858) is an alien ambrosia beetle from North America, that has been spreading across Europe since the 1930s. The species infests coniferous trees, excavating galleries in sapwood. However, to date very few studies have predicted changes in ambrosia beetle habitat suitability under changing climate conditions. To fill that gap in the current knowledge, we used the MaxEnt algorithm to estimate areas potentially suitable for this species in Europe, both under current climate conditions and those forecasted for the years 2050 and 2070. Our analyses showed areas where the species has not been reported, though the climatic conditions are suitable. Models for the forecasted conditions predicted an increase in suitable habitats. Due to the wide range of host trees, the species is likely to spread through the Balkans, the Black Sea and Caucasus region, Baltic countries, the Scandinavian Peninsula, and Ukraine. As a technical pest of coniferous sapwood, it can cause financial losses due to deterioration in quality of timber harvested in such regions. Our results will be helpful for the development of a climate-change-integrated management strategy to mitigate potential adverse effects.

Impact of invasive species Parectopa robiniella (Gracillariidae) on fluorescence parameters of Robinia pseudoacacia in the conditions of the steppe zone of Ukraine

Robinia pseudoacacia L. is one of the most common and environmentally adaptable introduced tree species which has become an important element of artificial afforestation and landscaping in Ukraine over the past 150 years. Throughout the history of its introduction on the territory of Ukraine, this species was considered resistant because of the absence of dangerous phytophages. At the beginning of the XXI century, the phytosanitary situation changed as the result of the penetration and rapid spread of a number of North American invasive phytophages. The appearance and distribution of the miner Parectopa robiniella (Clemens, 1863) (Lepidoptera, Gracillariidae) feeding on R. pseudoacacia was recognized as the largest invasion in Ukraine. This paper considers the issues of studying the effect of P. robiniella caterpillars feeding on R. pseudoacacia in various forest-growing conditions in the steppe zone of Ukraine. The process of photosynthesis, as the most important physiological parameter, was chosen as indicator of condition. The study was conducted using biosensor technology which made it possible to measure the effect of caterpillar feeding on critical parameters of chlorophyll fluorescence (the Kautsky curve). The research has shown that the initial value of fluorescence induction was within the range of 196–284 RFU, and the maximum value of the background fluorescence parameter was recorded in undamaged leaves and under shading conditions. Both the effect of phytophages and the shading factor caused a significant decrease in the values of fluorescence induction of the “plateau” both in the conditions of an artificially washed sandbar, on the watershed area of a watershed-gully landscape, as well as on natural sandy-loam soil. The maximum values of photosynthetic fluorescence induction under the simultaneous influence of the studied factors had rather high variability. In contrast to the fluorescence induction parameter, the “plateau” of the highest maximum fluorescence induction was reached in the absence of pest damage under conditions of total shading. As revealed by dispersion and regression analyses, the maximum fluorescence index was most dependent on the amount of solar radiation and on the degree of the leaf surface damage by phytophages. Significantly higher values of the steady-state fluorescence induction parameter were determined in the absence of insect damage in both shading and lighting conditions. A statistically significant combined influence of abiotic and biotic factors on the “plateau” fluorescence induction parameter was determined in comparison with the mono-influence of individual factors. A highly significant dependence of the maximum efficiency indicator of primary photosynthesis processes on individual factors of exogenous influence was established, while the combined effect of these factors did not affect this parameter. The obtained data allow one to apply in practice the methods of analyzing chlorophyll fluorescence induction to establish the physiological state of tree flora in forest and garden farms.

Intrusive growth of initials does not affect cambial circumference in Robinia pseudoacacia

This study aimed to test the hypothesis whether intrusive growth of initial cells is related to the increase in circumference of Robinia pseudoacacia vascular cambium—both qualitatively and quantitatively. The mode of intrusive growth of cambial initial cells was also studied. Samples collected from tree trunks were examined using series of semi-thin transverse sections. Anatomical reconstructions of radial and tangential planes of analysed fragments of cambial tissue were made. Observations and measurements have shown that the intrusive growth of R. pseudoacacia initial cells does not contribute to an increase in tangential dimension of observed tissue fragments where cell rearrangement occurs. Moreover, initially separated tangential walls of cells (between which cambial initial cell elongates intrusively) are transformed into obliquely oriented walls. These results stand in accordance with a statement that only symplastic growth of initials, not intrusive growth, is responsible for the increase in circumference in all woody plants with the continuous cambial cylinder. Moreover, we managed to capture the moment of transition of initial status from one cell to another for the first time. This phenomenon may be explained on the basis of the system of mechanical stresses operating not only in the secondary meristematic tissue but also in a whole plant organism.

Effect of Water Stress on Physiological and Morphological Leaf Traits: A Comparison among the Three Widely-Spread Invasive Alien Species Ailanthus altissima, Phytolacca americana, and Robinia pseudoacacia

Invasive alien species (IAS) are a problem, especially in drought-prone environments such as the Mediterranean Basin where the exacerbation of the already severe conditions could constrain the native species acclimatation degree, creating new opportunities for IAS. Climate change may drive IAS expansions, even if different IAS can vary in their acclimatation response. Thus, it is important to obtain a broader insight of how the different IAS face abiotic stress. This research aimed to compare the effect of the imposed water stress on physiological and morphological leaf traits of Ailanthus altissima (AA), Robinia pseudoacacia (RP), and Phytolacca americana (PA), which are widely spread IAS in the Mediterranean Basin. Our results showed a species-dependent effect of the water stress at a physiological and morphological level, as well as an interaction between species and stress duration. Despite a common strategy characterized by low stomatal control of the photosynthesis, AA, PA, and RP differ in their sensitivity to water stress. In particular, even if AA was characterized by a more water-spending strategy, it was more resistant to water stress than PA and RP. In this view, the key factor was its plasticity to increase leaf mass per area (LMA) in response to water stress.

Geographical distribution of As-hyperaccumulator Pteris vittata in China: Environmental factors and climate changes

Understanding the distribution of hyperaccumulators helps to implement more efficient phytoremediation strategies of contaminated sites, however, limited information is available. Here, we investigated the geographical distribution of the first-known arsenic-hyperaccumulator Pteris vittata in China and the key factors under two climate change scenarios (SSP 1-2.6 and SSP 5-8.5) at two time points (2030 and 2070). Species distribution model (MaxEnt) was applied to examine P. vittata distribution based on 399 samples from field surveys and existing specimen records. Further, among 23 environmental factors, 11 variables were used in the MaxEnt model, including temperature, precipitation, elevation, soil property, and UV-B radiation. The results show that P. vittata can grow in ~23% of the regions in China. Specifically, it is mainly distributed in 11 provinces of southern China, including Hainan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu. Besides, eastern Sichuan, and southern Henan, Shaanxi, and Anhui are suitable for P. vittata growth. Under two climate change scenarios, P. vittata distribution in China would decrease by ~5.76-7.46 × 10⁴ km² in 2030 and ~3.22-4.68 × 10⁴ km² in 2070, with southern Henan and most Jiangsu being unsuitable for P. vittata growth. Among the 11 environmental variables, the minimum temperature of coldest month (bio6) and temperature annual range (bio7) are the two key factors limiting P. vittata distribution. At bio6 <-5 °C and/or bio7 >33 °C, the regions are unsuitable for P. vittata growth. Based on the MaxEnt model, precipitation had limited effects, so P. vittata can probably survive under both dry and moist environments. This study helps guide phytoremediation of As-polluted soils using P. vittata and provides an example to evaluate habitat suitability of hyperaccumulators at international scales.

Climate Benefit of Different Tree Species on Former Agricultural Land in Northern Europe

The new European Union Forest Strategy for 2030 aims to plant an additional 3 billion trees on non-forest land to mitigate climate change. However, the choice of tree species for afforestation to achieve the maximum climate benefit is unclear. We compared the climate benefit of six different species in terms of carbon (C) sequestration in biomass and the harvested wood substitution in products to avoid carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil-based materials over the 100-year period by afforesting about ¼ of the available area in northern Europe. The highest climate benefit was observed for larch, both at a stand scale (1626 Mg CO2 eqv. ha−1) and at the landscape level for the studied scenario (579 million Mg CO2 eqv.). Larch was followed by Norway spruce, poplar, hybrid aspen and birch, showing a climate benefit about 40–50% lower than that for larch. The climate benefit of willow was about 70% lower than larch. Willow showed 6–14-fold lower C stocks at the landscape level after 100 years than other tree species. The major climate benefit over the 100-year period comes from wood substitution and avoided emissions, but C stock buildup at the landscape level also removes significant amounts of CO2 already present in the atmosphere. The choice of tree species is important to maximize climate change mitigation.

Niche dynamics of Memecylon in Sri Lanka: Distribution patterns, climate change effects, and conservation priorities

Recent climate projections have shown that the distribution of organisms in island biotas is highly affected by climate change. Here, we present the result of the analysis of niche dynamics of a plant group, Memecylon, in Sri Lanka, an island, using species occurrences and climate data. We aim to determine which climate variables explain current distribution, model how climate change impacts the availability of suitable habitat for Memecylon, and determine conservation priority areas for Sri Lankan Memecylon. We used georeferenced occurrence data of Sri Lankan Memecylon to develop ecological niche models and assess both current and future potential distributions under six climate change scenarios in 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. We also overlaid land cover and protected area maps and performed a gap analysis to understand the impacts of land-cover changes on Memecylon distributions and propose new areas for conservation. Differences among suitable habitats of Memecylon were found to be related to patterns of endemism. Under varying future climate scenarios, endemic groups were predicted to experience habitat shifts, gains, or losses. The narrow endemic Memecylon restricted to the montane zone were predicted to be the most impacted by climate change. Projections also indicated that changes in species' habitats can be expected as early as 2041-2060. Gap analysis showed that while narrow endemic categories are considerably protected as demonstrated by their overlap with protected areas, more conservation efforts in Sri Lankan forests containing wide endemic and nonendemic Memecylon are needed. This research helped clarify general patterns of responses of Sri Lankan Memecylon to global climate change. Data from this study are useful for designing measures aimed at filling the gaps in forest conservation on this island.

Site-specific risk assessment enables trade-off analysis of non-native tree species in European forests

Non-native tree species (NNT) are used in European forestry for many purposes including their growth performance, valuable timber, and resistance to drought and pest or pathogen damage. Yet, cultivating NNT may pose risks to biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and the provisioning of ecosystem services, and several NNT have been classified as invasive in Europe. Typically, such classifications are based on risk assessments, which do not adequately consider site-specific variations in impacts of the NNT or the extent of affected areas. Here, we present a new methodological framework that facilitates both mitigating risks associated with NNT and taking advantage of their ecosystem services. The framework is based on a stratified assessment of risks posed by NNT which distinguishes between different sites and considers effectiveness of available management strategies to control negative effects. The method can be applied to NNT that already occur in a given area or those NNT that may establish in future. The framework consists of eight steps and is partly based on existing knowledge. If adequate site-specific knowledge on NNT does not yet exist, new evidence on the risks should be obtained, for example, by collecting and analyzing monitoring data or modeling the potential distribution of NNT. However, limitations remain in the application of this method, and we propose several policy and management recommendations which are required to improve the responsible use of NNT.

The seeds of invasion: enhanced germination in invasive European populations of black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) compared to native American populations

Local adaptation and the evolution of phenotypic plasticity may facilitate biological invasions. Both processes can enhance germination and seedling recruitment, which are crucial life-history traits for plants. The rate, timing and speed of germination have recently been documented as playing a major role during the invasion process. Black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) is a North American tree, which has spread widely throughout Europe. A recent study demonstrated that a few populations are the source of European black locust. Thus, invasive populations can be compared to native ones in order to identify genetic-based phenotypic differentiation and the role of phenotypic plasticity can thereby be assessed. A quantitative genetics experiment was performed to evaluate 13 juvenile traits of both native and invasive black locust populations (3000 seeds, 20 populations) subjected to three different thermal treatments (18 °C, 22 °C and 31 °C). The results revealed European populations to have a higher germination rate than the native American populations (88% versus 60%), and even when genetic distance between populations was considered. Moreover, this trait showed lower plasticity to temperature in the invasive range than in the native one. Conversely, other studied traits showed high plasticity to temperature, but they responded in a similar way to temperature increase: the warmer the temperature, the higher the growth rate or germination traits values. The demonstrated genetic differentiation between native and invasive populations testifies to a shift between ranges for the maximum germination percentage. This pattern could be due to human-mediated introduction of black locust.

Assessing Black Locust Biomass Accumulation in Restoration Plantations

Forests (either natural or planted) play a key role in climate change mitigation due to their huge carbon-storing potential. In the 1980s, the Hellenic Public Power Corporation (HPPC) started the rehabilitation of lignite post-mining areas in Northwest Greece by planting mainly black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.). Today, these plantations occupy about 2570 ha, but the accumulation of Above Ground Biomass (AGB) and deadwood has not been assessed to date. Therefore, we aimed at estimating these biomass pools by calibrating an allometric model for AGB, performing an inventory for both pools and predicting the spatial distribution of AGB. 214 sample plots of 100 m2 each were set up through systematic sampling in a grid dimension of 500 × 500 m and tree dbh and height were recorded. AGB was estimated using an exponential allometric model and performing inventory measurements and was on average 57.6 t ha−1. Kriging analysis reliably estimated mean AGB, but produced errors in the prediction of high and low biomass values, related to the high fragmentation and heterogeneity of the studied area. Mean estimated AGB was low compared with European biomass yield tables for black locust. Similarly, standing deadwood was low (6–10%) and decay degrees were mostly 1 and 2, indicating recent deadwood formation. The overall low biomass accumulation in the studied black locust restoration plantations may be partially attributed to their young age (5–30 years old), but is comparable to that reported in black locust restoration plantation in extremely degraded sites. Thus, black locust successfully adapted to the studied depositions of former mines and its accumulated biomass has the potential to improve the carbon footprint of the region. However, the invasiveness of the species should be considered for future management planning of these restoration plantations.

Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Northward Range Expansion of Invasive Weeds in South Korea

Predicting the distribution of invasive weeds under climate change is important for the early identification of areas that are susceptible to invasion and for the adoption of the best preventive measures. Here, we predicted the habitat suitability of 16 invasive weeds in response to climate change and land cover changes in South Korea using a maximum entropy modeling approach. Based on the predictions of the model, climate change is likely to increase habitat suitability. Currently, the area of moderately suitable and highly suitable habitats is estimated to be 8877.46 km², and 990.29 km², respectively, and these areas are expected to increase up to 496.52% by 2050 and 1439.65% by 2070 under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 scenario across the country. Although habitat suitability was estimated to be highest in the southern regions (<36° latitude), the central and northern regions are also predicted to have substantial increases in suitable habitat areas. Our study revealed that climate change would exacerbate the threat of northward weed invasions by shifting the climatic barriers of invasive weeds from the southern region. Thus, it is essential to initiate control and management strategies in the southern region to prevent further invasions into new areas.

Impact of Tree Age and Size on Selected Properties of Black Locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) Wood

Black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) is a non-native tree species that occupies a remarkable area in the forests of western Poland. It is mainly cultivated for the bee-keeping purposes as well as for its high quality wood. We investigated the impact of tree age and diameter on the selected structural, physical and mechanical attributes of wood of black locust that grows in conditions of mesic oligotrophic site. We analysed 200 samples originating from 18 trees that varied with age (38, 60 and 71 years old) and diameter (thin, medium and thick specimen selected according to Hartig’s method). Individual wood properties were determined along with corresponding European or Polish standards. Structural and mechanical attributes were determined for moisture of 12%. We found significant impact of tree age on tree-ring width, latewood proportion, density, oven-dry density, basic density, share of woody substance, porosity, as well as radial, tangential, longitudinal and volumetric shrinkage, compression strength parallel to grain, static bending, coefficient of compression strength parallel to grain and coefficient of static bending. The older the trees, the higher values of individual attributes were observed. In turn, the effect of tree diameter was less profound and no significant impact of that feature was found for latewood proportion, anisotropy and almost all of the shrinkage parameters. Thin trees exhibited the lowest values of the analysed parameters, while medium ones—the highest. In general, the highest technical quality of the investigated wood can be found in the youngest trees, whose wood characterises with the properties significantly exceeding native Polish tree species such as oak or beech.

Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Endangered Cypripedium japonicum in China

Cypripedium japonicum is an endangered terrestrial orchid species with high ornamental and medicinal value. As global warming continues to intensify, the survival of C. japonicum will be further challenged. Understanding the impact of climate change on its potential distribution is of great significance to conserve this species. In this study, we established an ensemble species distribution model based on occurrence records of C. japonicum and 13 environmental variables to predict its potential distribution under current and future climatic conditions. The results show that the true skill statistic (TSS), Cohen’s kappa statistic (Kappa), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of the ensemble model were 0.968, 0.906, and 0.995, respectively, providing more robust predictions. The key environmental variables affecting the distribution of C. japonicum were the precipitation in the warmest quarter (Bio18) and the mean temperature in the driest quarter (Bio9). Under future climatic conditions, the total suitable habitat of C. japonicum will increase slightly and tend to migrate northwestward, but the highly suitable areas will be severely lost. By 2070, the loss of its highly suitable habitat area will reach 57.69–72.24% under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 respectively, and the highly suitable habitats in Zhejiang and Anhui will almost disappear. It is noteworthy that the highly suitable habitat of C. japonicum has never crossed the Qinba mountainous area during the migration process of the suitable habitat to the northwest. Meanwhile, as the best-preserved area of highly suitable habitat for C. japonicum in the future, the Qinba mountainous area is of great significance to protect the wild germplasm resources of C. japonicum. In addition, we found that most of the changes predicted for 2070 will already be seen in 2050; the problem of climate change may be more urgent than it is believed.