Decadal-scale phenology and seasonal climate drivers of migratory baleen whales in a rapidly warming marine ecosystem

Putting the health in hidden Markov models: incorporating allostatic load indices into movement ecology analyses

Individual animal health assessments are a key consideration for conservation initiatives. Environmental shifts associated with climate change, such as documented rises in pathogen emergence, predation pressures and human activities, create an increasingly stressful world for many species and have been linked with marked changes in movement behaviour. Even in healthy individuals, variations in allostatic load, the cumulative effects of long-term stress, may alter behavioural priorities over time. Here, we aimed to build links between animal health assessment information and movement ecology, using narwhals in the Canadian Arctic as a case study. A composite stress index was developed to incorporate multiple available health (e.g. health assessments), stress (e.g. hormones) and body condition metrics from clinically healthy individuals, and applied within the framework of widely used hidden Markov modelling of animal movement data. Individuals with a higher composite stress index tended to prioritize behaviours indicative of a stress response, including increasing the probability of transitioning to transiting behaviour as compared to those with a lower stress index. By incorporating a composite stress index that synthesizes multiple health indices in a flexible framework, we highlight that including information indicative of allostatic load may be important in explaining variation in behaviour, even for seemingly healthy animals. The modelling framework presented here highlights a flexible approach to incorporate health assessment information and provides an approach that is widely applicable to existing and future work on a range of species.

Baleen stable isotopes reveal climate-driven behavioural shifts in North Atlantic fin whales

Climate variability impacts the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems and can trigger behavioural responses in organisms. We investigated whether such variability modulates diet and migration in the North Atlantic fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus). To reconstruct the dietary and migratory behaviours over time, we conducted stable isotope analysis of nitrogen (δ15N) and carbon (δ13C) along baleen plates from 29 fin whales sampled off southwestern (SW) Iceland in summer. We estimated a baleen growth rate of 16.1 ± 2.5 cm per year from the stable isotope oscillations observed along the baleens. We also assigned a deposition date for each baleen segment, thus obtaining isotopic sequential time series. We then assessed the potential association of these time series with the main climate patterns of the North Atlantic basin. Baleen δ15N and δ13C values are associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). During high AMO and low NAO periods, which tend to decrease krill abundance, there is an increase in both the mean and standard deviation of baleen δ15N values, suggesting that fin whales shift to higher trophic resources and expand their dietary niche. Additionally, high AMO periods, which relate to positive temperature anomalies, lead to a decrease in baleen δ13C values, suggesting that fin whales adjust their migratory routes and destinations towards higher latitudes. Significant variation in isotopic niche width between years also reflected these dietary and migratory behavioural shifts. This highlights the plasticity of the North Atlantic fin whale behaviour, a trait likely to strengthen the resilience of the species within the current context of rapid and intense climate variability.

Long-term data reveal widespread phenological change across major US estuarine food webs

Climate change is shifting the timing of organismal life-history events. Although consequential food-web mismatches can emerge if predators and prey shift at different rates, research on phenological shifts has traditionally focused on single trophic levels. Here, we analysed >2000 long-term, monthly time series of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish abundance or biomass for the San Francisco, Chesapeake, and Massachusetts bays. Phenological shifts occurred in over a quarter (28%) of the combined series across all three estuaries. However, phenological trends for many taxa (ca. 29-68%) did not track the changing environment. While planktonic taxa largely advanced their phenologies, fishes displayed broad patterns of both advanced and delayed timing of peak abundance. Overall, these divergent patterns illustrate the potential for climate-driven trophic mismatches. Our results suggest that even if signatures of global climate change differ locally, widespread phenological change has the potential to disrupt estuarine food webs.

Is our understanding of aquatic ecosystems sufficient to quantify ecologically driven climate feedbacks?

The Earth functions as an integrated system-its current habitability to complex life is an emergent property dependent on interactions among biological, chemical, and physical components. As global warming affects ecosystem structure and function, so too will the biosphere affect climate by altering atmospheric gas composition and planetary albedo. Constraining these ecosystem-climate feedbacks is essential to accurately predict future change and develop mitigation strategies; however, the interplay among ecosystem processes complicates the assessment of their impact. Here, we explore the state-of-knowledge on how ecological and biological processes (e.g., competition, trophic interactions, metabolism, and adaptation) affect the directionality and magnitude of feedbacks between ecosystems and climate, using illustrative examples from the aquatic sphere. We argue that, despite ample evidence for the likely significance of many, our present understanding of the combinatorial effects of ecosystem dynamics precludes the robust quantification of most ecologically driven climate feedbacks. Constraining these effects must be prioritized within the ecological sciences for only by studying the biosphere as both subject and arbiter of global climate can we develop a sufficiently holistic view of the Earth system to accurately predict Earth's future and unravel its past.

Annual phenology and migration routes to breeding grounds in western-central North Pacific sei whales

The sei whale (Balaenoptera borealis) is an important species among baleen whales in the North Pacific and plays a significant role in the ecosystem. Despite the importance of this species, information regarding its migration patterns and breeding locations remains limited. To enhance the understanding of the phenology of North Pacific sei whales, we deployed satellite-monitored tags on these whales in the western and central North Pacific from 2017 to 2023. We fitted 55 sei whale tracks to a state-space model to describe the whales' seasonal movements at feeding grounds and their migratory behavior. The whales typically leave their feeding grounds between November and December, with migration pathways extending from off Japan to the west of the Hawaiian Islands. These southward transits converge in the waters of the Marshall Islands and north of Micronesia between 20° N and 7° N, which appear to be breeding grounds. After a brief stay at these breeding grounds, the whales migrate northward from January to February, reaching their feeding grounds around 30°N by March. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to present the phenology of feeding and breeding seasons and the migration pattern of North Pacific sei whales.

Dynamic, multi-scale analyses indicate site- and landscape-level forest cover drive Yellow-billed and Black-billed Cuckoo interannual turnover

Studies of habitat use in breeding birds often assume species have relatively stable breeding distributions. Some species, however, display considerable year-to-year variability, complicating efforts to determine suitable or preferred habitats. After returning to their breeding range, Black-billed Cuckoos (Coccyzus erythropthalmus) and Yellow-billed Cuckoos (C. americanus) are thought to range widely before nesting, resulting in high rates of interannual breeding-site turnover, potentially contributing to conflicting habitat associations found in past studies. However, difficulty detecting these rare and declining species could lead to overinflated estimates of interannual turnover. Using broadcast surveys to increase detection probability, we collected detection/non-detection data in 2019 and 2020 at 41 publicly owned sites in Illinois and performed a dynamic, multi-scale occupancy analysis for each species to separate detection probability from potential interannual turnover and determine landscape and small-scale variables driving habitat use and occupancy dynamics. We found strong support for interannual turnover for both species based on poor performance of non-dynamic models and variation in estimated annual occupancy (20% and 21% increase between years for Black-billed and Yellow-billed Cuckoos, respectively). Black-billed Cuckoos persisted at sites with less forest in the surrounding landscape and used areas with denser understory vegetation. Yellow-billed Cuckoos colonized sites with greater canopy cover, avoided developed landscapes, and used areas with a shorter subcanopy layer. The dynamic nature of habitat use in these two cuckoo species suggests the importance of coordinating management and conservation across a broader spatial scale. Managing for larger patches of dense shrubs in less forested landscapes would benefit Black-billed Cuckoos while Yellow-billed cuckoos would benefit from management creating forested areas with open understories in less-developed landscapes.

Ten best practices for effective phenological research

The number and diversity of phenological studies has increased rapidly in recent years. Innovative experiments, field studies, citizen science projects, and analyses of newly available historical data are contributing insights that advance our understanding of ecological and evolutionary responses to the environment, particularly climate change. However, many phenological data sets have peculiarities that are not immediately obvious and can lead to mistakes in analyses and interpretation of results. This paper aims to help researchers, especially those new to the field of phenology, understand challenges and practices that are crucial for effective studies. For example, researchers may fail to account for sampling biases in phenological data, struggle to choose or design a volunteer data collection strategy that adequately fits their project's needs, or combine data sets in inappropriate ways. We describe ten best practices for designing studies of plant and animal phenology, evaluating data quality, and analyzing data. Practices include accounting for common biases in data, using effective citizen or community science methods, and employing appropriate data when investigating phenological mismatches. We present these best practices to help researchers entering the field take full advantage of the wealth of available data and approaches to advance our understanding of phenology and its implications for ecology.

Effects of temperature and precipitation changes on shifts in breeding phenology of an endangered toad

In the last century, a plethora of species have shown rapid phenological changes in response to climate change. Among animals, amphibians exhibit some of the greatest responses since their activity strongly depends on temperature and rainfall regimes. These shifts in phenology can have negative consequences for amphibian fitness. Thus, understanding phenological changes in amphibians is pivotal to design conservation actions to mitigate climate change effects. We used data on Common Spadefoot Toad (Pelobates fuscus) reproductive migration to wetlands over a period of 8 years in Italy to (i) identify the factors related to breeding migrations, (ii) assess potential phenological shifts in the breeding period, and (iii) determine which climatic factors are related to the observed phenological shifts. Our results showed that toads migrate to spawning sites preferably in early spring, on rainy days with temperatures of 9-14 °C, and with high humidity. Furthermore, despite an increase in average temperature across the study period, we observed a delay in the start of breeding migrations of 12.4 days over 8 years. This counterintuitive pattern was the result of a succession of hot and dry years that occurred in the study area, highlighting that for ephemeral pond breeders, precipitation could have a larger impact than temperature on phenology. Our results belie the strong presumption that climate change will shift amphibian phenology toward an earlier breeding migration and underline the importance of closely investigating the environmental factors related to species phenology.

Don't mind if I do: Arctic humpback whales respond to winter foraging opportunities before migration

Migration patterns are fundamentally linked to the spatio-temporal distributions of prey. How migrating animals can respond to changes in their prey's distribution and abundance remains largely unclear. During the last decade, humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) used specific winter foraging sites in fjords of northern Norway, outside of their main summer foraging season, to feed on herring that started overwintering in the area. We used photographic matching to show that whales sighted during summer in the Barents Sea foraged in northern Norway from late October to February, staying up to three months and showing high inter-annual return rates (up to 82%). The number of identified whales in northern Norway totalled 866 individuals by 2019. Genetic sexing and hormone profiling in both areas demonstrate a female bias in northern Norway and suggest higher proportions of pregnancy in northern Norway. This may indicate that the fjord-based winter feeding is important for pregnant females before migration. Our results suggest that humpback whales can respond to foraging opportunities along their migration pathways, in some cases by continuing their feeding season well into winter. This provides an important reminder to implement dynamic ecosystem management that can account for changes in the spatio-temporal distribution of migrating marine mammals.

Surface and subsurface oceanographic features drive forage fish distributions and aggregations: Implications for prey availability to top predators in the US Northeast Shelf ecosystem

Forage fishes are a critical food web link in marine ecosystems, aggregating in a hierarchical patch structure over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Surface-level forage fish aggregations (FFAs) represent a concentrated source of prey available to surface- and shallow-foraging marine predators. Existing survey and analysis methods are often imperfect for studying forage fishes at scales appropriate to foraging predators, making it difficult to quantify predator-prey interactions. In many cases, general distributions of forage fish species are known; however, these may not represent surface-level prey availability to predators. Likewise, we lack an understanding of the oceanographic drivers of spatial patterns of prey aggregation and availability or forage fish community patterns. Specifically, we applied Bayesian joint species distribution models to bottom trawl survey data to assess species- and community-level forage fish distribution patterns across the US Northeast Continental Shelf (NES) ecosystem. Aerial digital surveys gathered data on surface FFAs at two project sites within the NES, which we used in a spatially explicit hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the abundance and size of surface FFAs. We used these models to examine the oceanographic drivers of forage fish distributions and aggregations. Our results suggest that, in the NES, regions of high community species richness are spatially consistent with regions of high surface FFA abundance. Bathymetric depth drove both patterns, while subsurface features, such as mixed layer depth, primarily influenced aggregation behavior and surface features, such as sea surface temperature, sub-mesoscale eddies, and fronts influenced forage fish diversity. In combination, these models help quantify the availability of forage fishes to marine predators and represent a novel application of spatial models to aerial digital survey data.

Decadal migration phenology of a long-lived Arctic icon keeps pace with climate change

Animals migrate in response to seasonal environments, to reproduce, to benefit from resource pulses, or to avoid fluctuating hazards. Although climate change is predicted to modify migration, only a few studies to date have demonstrated phenological shifts in marine mammals. In the Arctic, marine mammals are considered among the most sensitive to ongoing climate change due to their narrow habitat preferences and long life spans. Longevity may prove an obstacle for species to evolutionarily respond. For species that exhibit high site fidelity and strong associations with migration routes, adjusting the timing of migration is one of the few recourses available to respond to a changing climate. Here, we demonstrate evidence of significant delays in the timing of narwhal autumn migrations with satellite tracking data spanning 21 y from the Canadian Arctic. Measures of migration phenology varied annually and were explained by sex and climate drivers associated with ice conditions, suggesting that narwhals are adopting strategic migration tactics. Male narwhals were found to lead the migration out of the summering areas, while females, potentially with dependent young, departed later. Narwhals are remaining longer in their summer areas at a rate of 10 d per decade, a similar rate to that observed for climate-driven sea ice loss across the region. The consequences of altered space use and timing have yet to be evaluated but will expose individuals to increasing natural changes and anthropogenic activities on the summering areas.

Rapid restructuring of the odontocete community in an ocean warming hotspot

Cetaceans are important consumers in marine ecosystems, but few studies have quantified their climate responses. The rapid, directional warming occurring in the Northeast United States (NEUS) provides a unique opportunity to assess climate impacts on cetaceans. We used stranding data to examine changes to the distribution and relative abundance of odontocetes from 1996 to 2020 in both the NEUS and the Southeast United States (SEUS), which is not warming. We conducted simulations to determine the number of stranding events needed to detect a distributional shift for each species given the speed of the shift and the spatial variability in strandings. We compared observed shifts to climate velocity. Smaller sample sizes were needed to detect more rapid poleward shifts, particularly for species with low spatial variability. Poleward shifts were observed in all species with sufficient sample sizes, and shifts were faster than predicted by climate velocity. For species whose trailing edge of distribution occurred in the NEUS, the center of distribution approached the northern limit of the NEUS and relative abundance declined through time, suggesting shifts north out of US waters. The relative abundance of warm water species in the stranding record increased significantly in the NEUS while that of cool water species declined significantly as their distributions shifted north out of the NEUS. Changes in the odontocete community were less apparent in the SEUS, highlighting the importance of regional warming. Observed poleward shifts and changes in species composition suggest a reorganization of the odontocete community in the NEUS in response to rapid warming. We suggest that strandings provide a key dataset for understanding climate impacts on cetaceans given limitations of survey effort and modeling approaches for predicting distributions under rapidly changing conditions. Our findings portend marked changes to the distribution of highly mobile consumer species across international boundaries under continued warming.